Keith SmithMarch 05, 2025

The Philadelphia 76ers have a big dilemma on their hands. A 7-foot, 280-pound dilemma named Joel Embiid.

Or, if you prefer years and numbers: A four-year, $248 million dilemma named Joel Embiid.

By now, you know Embiid is out for the rest of this season. He’s got a chronic left knee issue. Embiid said it would not be corrected until he could have further surgery. Yet, for some reason, he continued to play for several more games. Eventually, the pain became too much. And after another week of obfuscation, Embiid was shut down for the season.

It was clear from watching him play this season, that things were never really right for the former MVP. Embiid looked like he was dragging his left leg up and down the floor. He’s so talented, that he was still putting up decent counting stats, but the efficiency and impact on both ends of the floor were basically gone.

Embiid put up his lowest points, rebounds and blocks since his shortened rookie season. What really took a hit was his efficiency. The Sixers center hit just 44.4% from the field, including only 29.9% on three-pointers. In addition, Embiid was averaging under a block per game for the first time in his career.

In a sad, but perfect, example of the eye test matching the stats, Embiid wasn’t the same guy.

When Joel Embiid was coming into the NBA, an often-made comp was to Patrick Ewing. Dominant, strong big man who could control the glass, protect the rim and score in a variety of ways on offense. Ewing was regularly billed as the best jump-shooting center (he didn’t take threes, because that wasn’t a thing for most centers when Ewing played) during his career. The same label has been applied to Embiid.

Now, their careers appear to be taking the same tragic turn. After an injury-filled rookie season, Ewing began a run of All-Star and All-NBA appearances that lasted for decade, but sadly, an NBA title eluded the Knicks big man. Then injuries hit again.

Over the final three seasons of his Knicks career, Ewing regularly missed time. Then he finished his career with two forgettable and somewhat injury-plagued seasons with the Seattle SuperSonics and Orlando Magic.

By the end, Ewing couldn’t really move or jump. He was still semi-effective because he had that nice touch on his shot and he was strong enough to hold his position on defense. But he was no longer much of a defensive presence, the rebounding was down and ability to dominate games in the paint was gone.

Sounds familiar, right? Sadly, this could be where we’re headed with Joel Embiid. One major difference? Ewing wrapped up his career as a role player making role player money. Embiid hasn’t even started his next max contract yet.

The Contract

Joel Embiid is currently wrapping up his third NBA contract. Embiid signed a four-year, Designated Veteran Extension that was set to run from 2023-24 through 2026-27. Embiid ended up cancelling out his player option on that final season to sign a new three-year Veteran Extension that will run from 2026-27 through 2028-29. All total, here’s what Embiid is owed over the next four seasons:

  • 2025-26: $55,224,526 (final season of current contract)
  • 2026-27: $59,539,200 (first season of three-year Veteran Extension)
  • 2027-28: $64,302,336
  • 2028-29: $69,065,472 (player option)
  • Total: four years, $248,131,534

We’re going to go ahead and include that player option as being picked up as we do any future analysis of Embiid’s situation. He’ll turn 35 years old during the 2028-29 season and barring something unexpected, he’s almost guaranteed to pick up that option.

It’s worth noting that the 2026-27 season is based on Embiid maxing out at the 35% of the cap marker. There’s always the possibility that the cap comes in slightly lower than 10% growth in each of the next two seasons, but that seems unlikely.

Another point worth noting: There are no protections for Philadelphia in Embiid’s current deal or his previous deal. Embiid’s rookie scale extension famously had several benchmarks, that if missed could have allowed the 76ers to get out of the contract relatively free and clear. Those protections don’t exist on Embiid’s current contract, nor his extension that starts in 2026-27.

Last, but not least, point worth noting: Embiid is one of three max players on the Sixers books through at least the 2027-28 season. Paul George and Tyrese Maxey are both on maximum contracts for the next three seasons too. Here’s what the trio of Embiid, George and Maxey combine for against the projected cap for each of the next three seasons:

  • 2025-26: $144,849,376 against a projected cap of $154,647,000
  • 2026-27: $154,436,100 against a projected cap of $170,112,000
  • 2027-28: $164,471,286 against a projected cap of $187,123,000

Essentially, even with projected cap growth outpacing salary growth, the Embiid, George, Maxey trio takes up the entire salary cap by themselves. Factor in other players, roster minimums and draft picks, Philadelphia will be over the cap and working around the luxury tax and tax aprons for the next few years with these three on the roster.

And that leads us to the decision points for the Sixers.

Trade Options

Philadelphia could look at all of the above and say that they and Joel Embiid have fought the good fight together, but now it’s time to go their separate ways. In that case, the Sixers could search out trade options for the big man.

Going that route opens up a couple of questions: Can Philadelphia trade Embiid? And who would trade for an injury-prone max contract center in today’s apron-fearing, perimeter-based NBA?

The first one is easily answered. There are no restrictions for the 76ers to trade Joel Embiid. He doesn’t have a no-trade clause of any kind. He’ll be trade-eligible by the offseason. That’s the easy part.

The harder part is finding a team who would take on Embiid and his massive contract. But the old saying in sports comes into play here: It only takes one…we’ll let finish that quote yourselves.

Some team, maybe even a few of them, will convince themselves that they, and their medical staff, can get Embiid right. They’ll look at it as maybe even stealing a former MVP and a regular All-Star on the cheap, in terms of trade capital.

In addition, there are a couple of teams who might look at their cap sheet and roster and will decide that they can deal with it if Embiid misses time. Maybe those teams are deep enough that they can manage the big man through the season by playing him 45-50 games a year.

Finally, there might be a team or two who are stuck enough that taking a chance on Embiid isn’t any bigger of a gamble than being a perennial lottery team anyway.

Without getting into specific trade ideas, we’ll probably have plenty of time for that over the next couple of years, someone would trade for Joel Embiid and the nearly $250 million he’s owed. It only takes one, after all.

Waive and Stretch

More than a few times while talking about Joel Embiid, someone has asked “Could Philly just waive and stretch him?”

Let’s say the 76ers decided to just press the red button and activate the nuclear option this offseason, they could attempt to waive and stretch Embiid. That would take the $248 million that Embiid is owed and spread that out over a whopping nine seasons at approximately $27.6 million per season. 

Quick explainer: The stretch provision takes the money owed to a player and spreads it evenly over a number of years that is twice the years remaining on the contract, plus one additional year. In Embiid’s case, the player option on his final season would be exercised. That would give him four years and $248 million on his contract. That would be stretched over nine seasons at $27.6 million per season.

Now, forget all of that.

Teams aren’t allowed to waive and stretch a player if the amount of the player’s stretched salary will exceed 15% of the salary cap for the season the player is being waived.

If this was to happen this upcoming season, 15% of the projected cap is $23.2 million. So, no dice there, as Embiid’s stretched salary amount would be more than 15% of the projected cap. The same would be true of the 2026-27 season too.

If Embiid is still on the roster, and things are so bad that Philly can’t trade him and they need to waive and stretch the big man, the earliest they could do that would be ahead of the 2027-28 season.

But it won’t ever get that far. If things are that bad, there’s an outside chance another option will have come into play before the summer of 2027.

Medical Retirement

If it’s believed at any point that Joel Embiid can no longer play, the 76ers could petition the NBA for an injury exclusion due to a medical retirement. In his case, Embiid would continue to receive his full salary, but Philadelphia would see his contract fully removed from their books moving forward.

If things got to this point, the Sixers would waive Embiid and his entire contract would stay on their books. At a point that is one year from his last NBA game, Philadelphia could then petition for an injury exclusion. (There’s also a clause where if the player plays 10 games or fewer in a season, the can back-date things back to the previous season’s final game played.)

From the point where the team petitions for the injury exclusion, the NBA and NBPA would jointly select a doctor/physician, or they would convene the Fitness to Play panel, to review the player’s injury history and the medical case. That doctor/physician or the Fitness to Play panel would then determine if the player’s injuries will prevent them from playing again.

If the finding is that the player can no longer play, then the contract is immediately removed from the team’s cap sheet. If the team is still over the cap following removal of the player’s salary, they are still over the cap. They don’t get an exception to replace the player.

A few more notes:

  • If the player beats the odds and returns to play, his salary is put back on the team’s cap sheet (through the terms of the original contract), provided that the player plays in 25 games in any one season after the exclusion was approved.
  • If the injury exclusion is approved, the player cannot re-sign with that team. The team also cannot re-acquire that player via trade or waivers.
  • An injury exclusion can be sought only during the terms of the original contract. If the player was waived and stretched, the team must petition for the injury exclusion during the terms of the original contract, not the years that the salary was stretched over.
  • If the player makes it back to play, but then is unable to play in the future, the team can reapply for a subsequent injury exclusion for the remainder of the contract. The process would be exactly the same as the original petition.

To be abundantly clear: There is no indication that the 76ers or Embiid are anywhere near this point. All statements from the team, and all reporting from both the team and player sides, are that Embiid intends to return to play. We are simply laying this option out as one Philadelphia could take at some point over the next four years.

Summary

The Philadelphia 76ers are in a tough spot with Joel Embiid, just as Embiid is in a tough spot with his own career. Yes, Embiid could simply walk away, the Sixers could apply for the injury exclusion and everyone sort of wins. Embiid still gets paid and the 76ers get out of the contract.

But it’s not nearly that simple. Embiid wants to play. No matter how much criticism you might want to lay on the guy, Embiid has worked very hard to play. He played in the Olympics when he probably shouldn’t have. He played through injuries this season when he definitely shouldn’t have. Given there is an option to get paid to not play and Embiid hasn’t taken it, it’s clear he wants to play.

Beyond that, Philadelphia clearly wants their All-Star center on the floor. We can argue if they’ve handled Embiid well (the argument here would be that they haven’t in recent years), but the Sixers aren’t trying to get him off the roster. If they were, they wouldn’t have continued to give him maximum contract extensions.

For now, the plan seems to be for Embiid to get further surgery or to rehab with the idea to be back at some point next season. Ideally, this process will start ASAP and Embiid will be ready close to the start of next season. However, it does seem like all parties involved are invested in getting this right this time around. If the rehab process lasts into next season, so be it. There’s a lot more at stake here than some regular season games.

Beyond this season, it’s anyone’s guess. If Embiid is able to get moderately healthy and return to being a productive (if no longer dominant) player, then the Sixers will be happy to have him in the fold.

If Embiid can’t return to form, then we start to consider trade options. If he can’t get moderately healthy, then we look at the other options we laid out. But those are 2026 questions. For now, all anyone can do is hope that Embiid can get right and get back to being himself again for next season. Any course of action from there will be determined down the line.

 

Scott AllenFebruary 28, 2025

Anthony Edwards receives a one-game suspension for receiving his 16th technical foul during the Timberwolves-Lakers game on Feb 27th, 2025.

Edwards will lose $242,939 for the one-game suspension.

Scott AllenFebruary 20, 2025

Bobby Portis of the Milwaukee Bucks has been suspended 25 games by the league for violating the terms of the NBA/NBPA Anti-Drug Program. Portis' salary for this season is $12,578,286, therefore he'll stand to lose $114,348 per game (1/110 of salary for being suspended 20+ games).

Financial Implications:

  • Portis will lose $2,858,701 in salary from the suspension.
  • Milwaukee will receive a tax variance credit of $1,429,351.
Scott AllenFebruary 16, 2025

All-Star Game

Winner: $125,000 / player
2nd Place: $50,000 / player
3rd/4th Place: $25,000 / player

Rookie-Sophomore Game

Winner: $25,000 / player
Loser: $10,000 / player

All-Star Skills Competition

Slam Dunk
1st Place: $105,000
2nd Place: $55,000
3rd Place: $20,000
4th Place: $20,000

Three-Point Shootout
1st Place: $60,000
2nd Place: $40,000
3rd Place: $25,000
4th Place: $15,000
5th Place: $15,000
6th Place: $15,000
7th Place: $15,000
8th Place: $10,000

Skills Challenge
1st Place: $55,000
2nd Place: $40,000
3rd Place: $20,000
4th Place: $20,000
5th Place: $15,000
6th Place: $15,000
7th Place: $15,000
8th Place: $15,000

Keith SmithFebruary 12, 2025

The 2025 NBA trade deadline is behind us. We’ll still have a handful more transactions to come, but for the most part, the major moves are done. Extensions are the big deals to watch, along with some buyouts, signings and two-way conversions also on tap. That means it’s time to look forward to the summer of 2025!

The 2025 NBA offseason looks like a weird one. The new media rights money will start hitting, but the NBA and NBPA agreed to cap the cap growth at no more than 10% from one year to the next. That means the cap is projected to go from $140.6 million this season to just over $154.6 million for next season. That $14 million jump is a big one, but it’s not going to result in a whole of cap space around the NBA.

The reason for that is teams have gotten really aggressive in recent years with extensions. More and more players are forgoing free agency and taking the certainty of extensions. In the 2024 offseason, the only big-name All-Star to change teams via direct free agency was Paul George. A few others moved via sign-and-trades and standard trades, but free agency itself wasn’t how stars moved.

That’s likely to continue in the summer of 2025. As you’ll see, there’s barely any cap space projected to be out there this summer. Also, the free agent class projects to be devoid of stars. Most of the All-Star level guys are good bets to re-sign with their current teams, or to extend before free agency opens.

However, that doesn’t mean having spending power is completely useless. With the Apron Era fully upon us, NBA teams are embracing exceptions in different ways. This summer, there will be some value signings available, simply because the means to overpay those players as free agents aren’t available. That should make for an active summer of role player movement.

In addition, it’s going to be a big-time trade summer. If you want to acquire a star, a trade will be the way to do it. And if deadline and post-deadline rumblings are any indicator, there are going to several stars available this offseason.

With all that said, here’s how things look today for 2025 offseason spending power around the NBA. For reference: The Non-Taxpayer MLE projects to be $14.1 million for 2025-26. The Taxpayer MLE projects to be $5.1 million.

(Note: These projections are made using the noted cap and tax figures above, draft pick cap holds based on projected standings and a projection on all option and guarantee decisions by players and teams. No extensions or trades have been projected. We will call out where those types of situations could impact a team projection.)

Cap Space Team – 1 Teams

  1. Brooklyn Nets: $54.8 million in cap space

The Brooklyn Nets currently project to be the only team we can say with certainty will hit the summer with cap space. How much is somewhat up in the air. The Nets didn’t move Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton, or most of their high-salaried players at the deadline. So, they remain in place for now.

What could swing this projection even higher is the status of pending restricted free agent Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe. If the Nets were to let Thomas and Sharpe leave town, they could create up to $76.3 million in cap space.

Here’s the thing though: Why let Thomas and Sharpe leave for nothing? Brooklyn isn’t ready to spend all that much, as they are in the early stages of their rebuild. Thomas and Sharpe are good players. With no other cap space teams out there, the Nets might be able to get both back on team-friendly deals.

And, of course, keep an eye on Sean Marks with restricted free agents from other teams too. When Brooklyn previously had copious amounts of cap space, Marks tossed around several offer sheets. In the end, no matter what direction they take, the Nets are in a great place to be active players this offseason.

Swing Cap Space and Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 3 Teams

  1. Detroit Pistons: up to $24.6 million in cap space
  2. Memphis Grizzlies: up to $6.9 million in cap space
  3. Utah Jazz: up to $30.0 million in cap space

The Pistons could be a cap space team this summer, with up to $24.6 million to spend. That could aid in bringing back Malik Beasley, if he’s looking at more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE (NTMLE). If Detroit can get Beasley to come back for the NTMLE, they’re better off staying over the cap and using various Bird Rights to re-sign players like Dennis Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr.

Utah is pretty straight forward: if John Collins opts in, they’ll be over the cap. If he doesn’t, the Jazz could have over $30 million in cap space. Given Collins will find it hard to recoup the $26.6 million he’d give up by opting out, bet on Utah to stay over the cap.

Memphis is in a super interesting situation. The Grizzlies can’t create any kind of meaningful cap space. The most they can get to is about $6.9 million, while retaining restricted free agent rights for Santi Aldama. That’s not normally enough cap space for a team to bother with, and they’ll just stay over and use the NTMLE.

However, in this specific situation, that could be enough to bump up Jaren Jackson Jr.’s salary to over $30 million in a renegotiation-and-extension. That’s an interesting way to use cap space, given the Grizzlies wouldn’t have to give up on Aldama to get it done. Of course, if Jackson makes All-NBA, he’ll be eligible for a 35% of the cap max and the Grizzlies will then stay over the cap.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 7 Teams

  1. Atlanta Hawks
  2. Charlotte Hornets
  3. Chicago Bulls
  4. Houston Rockets
  5. LA Clippers
  6. San Antonio Spurs
  7. Washington Wizards

This is an interesting group of teams. A few playoff teams, some up-and-coming teams and a few rebuilding teams.

Atlanta is firmly in this mix. They moved out some long-term salary, but to re-sign some free agents, or replace them, the Hawks will stay over the cap. But they should have enough clearance to use the NTMLE.

Charlotte took themselves out of the running for cap space when they took on Jusuf Nurkic’s contract for next season. That’s fine though, since the Hornets got paid a first-round pick to do so. They’re fine being a NTMLE for another season, as the rebuild continues.

Chicago moved Zach LaVine, but kept everyone else. The Bulls will have enough room to use the NTMLE, as long as things don’t get silly with Josh Giddey’s new contract.

Houston is firmly in NTMLE range. They’ll probably work out a new deal with Fred VanVleet after declining their team option, but that won’t be enough to get the Rockets to being a cap space team.

The Clippers have done such a good job managing their roster and cap sheet. LA will be able to bolster an already-strong roster by adding an NTMLE signing to the mix next season.

It feels like the Spurs shouldn’t have much money on the books, but after bringing in De’Aaron Fox, they’ll be over the cap. And that’s fine. They’ve got a strong, developing roster and they’ll be able to add to it with a NTMLE player.

Washington went the pre-agency route and took on salary for next season early by trading for Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart. That will keep the Wizards over the cap. Don’t rule out a value NTMLE signing, as they did a nice job in the Jonas Valanciunas sign-and-trade a year ago, but Washington’s real work will get done via the trade market.

Swing Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 6 teams

  1. Indiana Pacers
  2. Milwaukee Bucks
  3. New Orleans Pelicans
  4. Philadelphia 76ers
  5. Portland Trail Blazers
  6. Sacramento Kings

Another mix of teams that are would-be contenders, plus teams just trying to find their footing as they reset their rosters.

Indiana will be around or over the tax line, and potentially pushing the first apron, if they re-sign Myles Turner. Given they didn’t trade him for the umpteenth deadline in a row, bet on Turner getting a new deal from the only NBA team he’s ever known.

Milwaukee did a good job getting off money at the deadline. That will put the Bucks in position to possibly use the NTMLE. The big question will be how much Brook Lopez re-signs for this offseason, assuming the veteran center doesn’t call it a career.

The Pelicans are in transition. Brandon Ingram is gone, but New Orleans still has a lot of money on their books for next season and beyond. Look for more rebalancing trade, as where the team lands in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery might determine their direction moving forward.

The Sixers are kind of a mess. Things haven’t gone as planned, as Joel Embiid and Paul George have been unable to stay healthy. With those two on the books, the team is very, very expensive. But Philadelphia might be able to squeeze in a NTMLE signing, if they make another move or two around the core group.

Portland is far too expensive for a bad team. The Blazers didn’t make any moves at the deadline. That means this roster remains flush with a confusing mix of veterans and young players trying to find their way in the NBA. There’s a lot of work to be done here this offseason.

The Kings took on some long-term money by adding Zach LaVine and Jonas Valanciunas, but they also got off some money too. Sacramento will be straddling the line of NTMLE vs Tax MLE, and hard-capping themselves at the first apron might not be worth it for using the NTMLE.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 4 teams

  1. Denver Nuggets
  2. Miami Heat
  3. Oklahoma City Thunder
  4. Toronto Raptors

This group is a bit larger than usual. The Nuggets and Thunder are title contenders. Miami is resetting, while the Raptors are starting to push their rebuild forward.

Denver should have just enough room to fit in a Taxpayer MLE signing. However, that would mean another hard cap at the second apron. The Nuggets might want to avoid that complication for a third consecutive season.

The Heat moved off Jimmy Butler, but they took on some other long-term money in that deal. Their roster is also mostly full. If there’s the right guy to use the Taxpayer MLE on, Miami will do it, but don’t lock that in.

The Thunder have a full roster. Their big question i: How will they fit in at least two, and possibly more, first-round picks? They could use the Taxpayer MLE, but why go into the tax now? It’s probably best to delay the inevitable for as long as you can in Oklahoma City.

When Toronto extended Brandon Ingram, they pushed right up to the tax line. They have enough room to fit in a Taxpayer MLE signing, but will they want to? It’d have to be someone who can really lift the Raptors. Otherwise, this group will focus on bringing back Chris Boucher and maybe some smaller moves around the edges of the rotation.

Swing Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Second Apron Teams – 4 teams

  1. Golden State Warriors
  2. Los Angeles Lakers
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves
  4. Orlando Magic

Four teams that all have playoff aspirations, even if all have stumbled at points this season. That will probably be the same story a year from now.

Golden State locked into being a tax team when they extended Jimmy Butler. The big question: Can they fit in a Taxpayer MLE signing before hitting what would be a second-apron hard cap?

The Lakers situation will be determined by LeBron James. Will he take a little less for some flexibility with a signing? Will he take the max he can get? Will James just pick up his player option? Will he stay in LA? Will James retire? It feels like everything is on the table more than ever.

If Minnesota re-signs Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, they’ll be a second apron team. If they lose Reid, the Taxpayer MLE comes into play. It’s really that simple for the Wolves.

Orlando might be a surprise here, but they’ve got a max extension kicking in Franz Wagner and a near-max first-year salary coming online for Jalen Suggs. Add to it that the Magic have aggressively re-signed their own players, and this team is carrying a lot more salary than most realize. They’ve got a little flexibility to get under the tax line, but things are tighter in Orlando than they have been in years.

Second Apron Teams (no signing exceptions) – 5 Teams

  1. Boston Celtics
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers
  3. Dallas Mavericks
  4. New York Knicks
  5. Phoenix Suns

This group grew throughout the season. Boston and Phoenix have been here and will continue to be, barring something really unexpected. The Celtics are still title favorites, so their second-apron status feels earned. The Suns aren’t, and a Kevin Durant trade could throw things into flux. But given the salary-matching rules, it’s not overly likely a Durant trade would get Phoenix all the way under the second apron.

Cleveland will join this group by virtue of acquiring De’Andre Hunter, along with extensions kicking in for Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. The Cavs have never shied away from paying for a contender, so they’ll likely end up even deeper into the tax after re-signing a couple of key free agents too.

Dallas moved Luka Doncic, but Anthony Davis is starting a max extension next season. Kyrie Irving is likely to opt out and push for a max or near-max deal too. The Mavericks have a solid roster, but they are going to be a second-apron team with limited resources to improve it.

When New York landed Karl-Anthony Towns, they basically locked in second-apron status. Yes, Jalen Brunson took less to give the Knicks some flexibility, but this team is still carrying a ton of guaranteed salary. That’s not the worst thing, given New York is a contender. But it’s going to be hard for them to do much, beyond minor moves around the edges of the rotation.

 

Scott AllenFebruary 11, 2025

Brandon Ingram and the Toronto Raptors have agreed to a 3 year, $120 million contract extension after having been traded from the New Orleans Pelicans at the 2025 NBA Trade Deadline. The contract reportedly has a 2027-28 Player Option.

Estimated Contract Structure:
2025-26: $38,095,238
2026-27: $40,000,000
2027-28: $41,904,762 (Player Option)

This will bring Ingram's career earnings to $303 million if the contract is completed in full.

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2025

The Cleveland Cavaliers loaded up to aid in a title push. The Hawks reset their roster and cap sheet bit.

Here are the particulars:

Cleveland Cavaliers acquire: De’Andre Hunter

Atlanta Hawks acquire: Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, right to swap 2026 first-round picks with the Cavaliers, right to swap 2028 first-round picks with the least favorable of Cavaliers and Jazz, 2027 Cavaliers second-round pick, 2029 Cavaliers second-round pick and 2031 Cavaliers second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Cleveland Cavaliers

Incoming salary: $21.7 million in 2024-25

  • De’Andre Hunter (SF/PF, three years, $69.9 million)

Outgoing salary: $25.1 million in 2024-25

  • Caris LeVert (SG/SF, one year, $16.6 million)
  • Georges Niang (PF, two years, $16.7 million)

The Cavaliers are all in. De’Andre Hunter should be a terrific fit for the Cavaliers. He’ll likely start as the team’s small forward, but he’ll slide up and play plenty of small-ball power forward too. That’s the sort of versatility that Cleveland was lacking from their forward group.

Hunter has put together his best offensive season this year. He’s done well as a spot-up shooter, and in creating his own looks. Hunter has become a bit overrated as a defender, but he’s still solid on that end. He’ll give Cleveland more size to throw at the likes of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby among their chief competitors in the Eastern Conference.

What makes this an all-in move is two-fold. Cleveland gave up most of their remaining draft capital in this deal. The Cavs traded away three seconds, while also giving Atlanta first-round swap rights in a couple of other years.

The other all-in component is on the cap sheet. The Cavaliers now have over $198 million in guaranteed salary for eight players on their books for next season. By the time they fill out the roster, Cleveland will have one of the most expensive teams in the NBA next season. That’s why ducking the luxury tax in this trade was important. That keeps the repeater clock from starting for one more year.

The Cavs did lose some on-ball playmaking in Caris LeVert, but they’ve got enough in reserve to cover for that with Ty Jerome and Craig Porter Jr. Georges Niang was a nice stretch-four for Cleveland, but Hunter and Dean Wade should be able to handle Niang’s role without much worry.

Cleveland does have a couple of roster spots to fill, so they’ll be active on the buyout market. Keep an eye on a backup center and possibly a veteran point guard.

The Cavaliers are right there in terms of being a title contender. They’ve had a terrific season to date, but there was still a sense they needed one more player to truly compete with Boston at the top of the conference. Now, Cleveland should feel good about their chances, no matter who they run into in the postseason.

Atlanta Hawks

Incoming salary: $25.1 million in 2024-25

  • Caris LeVert (SG/SF, one year, $16.6 million)
  • Georges Niang (PF, two years, $16.7 million)

Outgoing salary: $21.7 million in 2024-25

  • De’Andre Hunter (SF/PF, three years, $69.9 million)
  • Note: Atlanta also sent Cody Zeller’s $3.5 million contract to the Houston Rockets in a roster/salary clearing 

When you combine this move with their other deals, the Hawks really reset things with their roster and cap sheet. Moving De’Andre Hunter seems like a step backwards, but Atlanta got back players who can play.

Caris LeVert is a good scorer and ballhandler. With Jalen Johnson out for the season, Atlanta has really been struggling for shot creation outside of Trae Young. LeVert will help with that quite a bit. He’s not the defender Hunter is, but the Hawks defense wasn’t exactly their calling card with Hunter.

Niang is also a nice addition. Atlanta didn’t really have a stretch big on the roster. Niang should give them solid minutes beside Onyeka Okongwu and Clint Capela in the frontcourt.

In the Zeller salary-dump, the Hawks gave the Rockets back their 2028 second-round pick. That deal helped Atlanta clear a roster spot and to get under the tax. Considering Zeller never actually joined the Hawks after being a throw-in as part of the Dejounte Murray deal last summer, that’s not a loss.

On the cap sheet, Atlanta has cleaned things up considerably. Even though he’s played well this season, let’s not forget that a year ago many were suggesting that Hunter’s deal was a cap-clogger. Now, that’s gone.

The Hawks aren’t in line to have cap space next summer, but they should be well clear of the luxury tax. More importantly, in the summer of 2026, which is shaping up to potentially have a monster free agent class, Atlanta could be real players.

This trade might not make the Hawks better this season. But it probably won’t make them worse. And they added a lot of draft capital and cap flexibility for the future. That’s a win for a team that was very much stuck in the middle.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2025

The LA Clippers added a perimeter shooting threat, and a bundle of second-round picks. The Hawks cleared out a little bit of future salary, while adding a versatile perimeter playmaker.

Here are the particulars:

LA Clippers acquire: Bogdan Bogdanovic, 2025 Timberwolves second-round pick, 2026 top-42 protected Grizzlies second-round pick, their own 2027 second-round pick

Atlanta Hawks acquire: Terance Mann, Bones Hyland

Let’s dive in!

LA Clippers

Incoming salary: $17.3 million in 2024-25

  • Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG/SF, three years, $49.3 million (final season team option))

Outgoing salary: $15.6 million in 2024-25

  • Terance Mann (SG/SF, four years, $58.4 million)
  • Bones Hyland (PG, one year, $4.2 million)

The Clippers needed to add more shooting for their playoff push. Bogdan Bogdanovic’s history says he’ll bring that in spades.

This season, Bogdanovic has struggled with his shot. He’s looked tired after a long summer with the Serbian national team. There’s a good chance Bogdanovic will rebound after getting off his feet during the upcoming All-Star break.

If he does, the Clippers have added a knockdown shooter, who can score on spot-ups, on on-the-move catch-and-shoots and off the dribble. Bogdanovic is also used to coming off the bench, which will be his role in LA.

Look for Bogdanovic to be used to space the floor in lineups that feature Kris Dunn and possibly soon-to-be-signed Ben Simmons. Those two will benefit from Bogdanovic opening up the floor for them. Also, on nights when he has it going, Bogdanovic can be a part of the Clippers closing lineups, if they need more shooting on the floor.

Terance Mann’s role with the Clippers was a bit uncertain. He had lost a lot of minutes over the course of the season to Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr. and Amir Coffey. Look for LA to extend Coffey before the season ends, given his increased role in the team’s rotation.

Getting back three second-round picks is good work for the Clippers here, and fairly surprising. Atlanta did have a bunch of extra seconds, so it’s to the Clippers advantage that they were able to pull a few away.

Through the course of the deadline moves, LA was able to add a backup center in Drew Eubanks, perimeter shooting in Bogdanovic, a veteran locker room voice in Patty Mills and soon, some versatility on both end of the floor with Simmons. That’s really solid work for a team that many thought would fall out of the playoff picture this season.

Atlanta Hawks

Incoming salary: $15.6 million in 2024-25

  • Terance Mann (SG/SF, four years, $58.4 million)
  • Bones Hyland (PG, one year, $4.2 million)

Outgoing salary: $17.3 million in 2024-25

  • Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG/SF, three years, $49.3 million (final season team option))

The Hawks added a little bit of long-term salary in this move, but they needed a player like Terance Mann more than they needed Bogdan Bogdanovic. That’s why this isn’t nearly as bad of a move as some have panned it as being.

Mann will bring Atlanta some additional on-ball juice. The team has been lacking that since Jalen Johnson went down. By adding both Mann and Caris LeVert in deadline deals, the Hawks have solved some of their shot creation issues.

Mann’s shooting has fallen off a bit over the last two seasons. It’s unclear what’s caused that, but that will be something to monitor with Atlanta. That’s especially true, given Mann’s three-year, $47 million extension kicks in after this season.

That was part of the reason for this trade. The Hawks will have Mann long-term, whereas Bogdanovic only had one more guaranteed year after this year. Mann is also four years younger than Bogdanovic. That’s a factor for a Hawks team that is building for the future.

Atlanta is waiving Bones Hyland, so his inclusion in this deal will have no on-court impact. The Hawks did give up there second-round picks in this deal, but they acquired three in their other trade with the Cavaliers. So, that nets out evenly for Atlanta.

This may seem like a strange trade for the Hawks, but when you look deeper it makes sense. They can give Bogdanovic’s designated-shooter role to Garrison Mathews, who has hit for 39% from deep this season. In addition, Vit Krejci can fill in scorer off the bench. And that’s before getting to Mann, who will help with shot creation and as a solid defensive player. All of that, plus some savings on the cap sheet over the next couple of years, makes this a solid trade for Atlanta.

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2025

The LA Clippers cleaned up a potential logjam on their roster by taking a flyer on a young player. The Bucks added some backcourt depth, while moving a player who was no longer part of their roster plans.

Here are the particulars:

LA Clippers acquire: MarJon Beauchamp

Milwaukee Bucks acquire: Kevin Porter Jr.

Let’s dive in!

LA Clippers

Incoming salary: $2.7 million in 2024-25

  • Marjon Beauchamp (SG/SF, one year, $2.7 million)

Outgoing salary: $2.2 million in 2024-25

  • Kevin Porter Jr. (SG/PG, two years, $4.8 million (2025-26 player option))

The Clippers no longer had a need for Kevin Porter Jr. in their backcourt. Kris Dunn has assumed the primary backup point guard role, Patty Mills was added earlier in trade season for depth, and Ben Simmons is joining the team after a buyout from the Nets. Off-ball, the team Norman Powell, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Amir Coffey in front of Porter.

Porter has been a bit of a wild-card in the past when he’s not playing regular minutes. That’s something that LA can no longer guarantee him with the depth they’ve added.

MarJon Beauchamp is a flyer for the Clippers. If he shows enough, LA could bring him back on a team-friendly contract next season as a developmental player.

On the cap sheet, there is a little bit more clarity for next season. Beauchamp had his fourth-year rookie scale option declined, so he’ll be an unrestricted free agent. Porter has a $2.5 million player option, which he’s likely to decline. Now, the Clippers can go into the offseason knowing they’ll certainly have that roster spot open.

Milwaukee Bucks

Incoming salary: $2.2 million in 2024-25

  • Kevin Porter Jr. (SG/PG, two years, $4.8 million (2025-26 player option))

Outgoing salary: $2.7 million in 2024-25

  • Marjon Beauchamp (SG/SF, one year, $2.7 million)

The Bucks protected themselves in case of a backcourt injury in this move. MarJon Beauchamp was long longer a part of the plans in Milwaukee, as witnessed by the team declining their rookie scale team option for Beauchamp for next season.

Porter could be in line for a regular rotation role for the Bucks. Milwaukee is a bit thing behind Damian Lillard at point guard, as two-way player Ryan Rollins has become the primary backup ballhandler. That’s a spot where Porter can step in and help.

Long-term, if Porter opts in for next season, he’ll make just above the veteran minimum amount. That’s solid value for the production he can bring.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2025

After making two deals earlier in trade season that left with him a hole at center, the Lakers went all-in to fill it. The Hornets continued picking up draft capital and young players.

Here are the particulars:

Los Angeles Lakers acquire: Mark Williams

Charlotte Hornets acquire: Dalton Knecht, Cam Reddish, rights to swap 2030 first-round picks, 2031 Lakers first-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Los Angeles Lakers

Incoming salary: $4.1 million in 2024-25

  • Mark Williams (C, two years, $10.4 million)

Outgoing salary: $6.3 million in 2024-25

  • Dalton Knecht (SF/SG, four years, $14.5 million (rookie scale deal))
  • Cam Reddish (SF/SG, one year, $2.1 million)

After trading Anthony Davis in the deal to get Luka Doncic, the Los Angeles Lakers were really thin at the center position. Los Angeles had Jaxson Hayes, two-way players and small-ball options. They filled that need with Mark Williams.

When healthy, Williams has been a solid starting center. He’s a good rebounder, decent rim protector and a solid finisher around the rim. Williams is the type of athletic lob-catch that thrives playing with Doncic. The two should make a very good pick-and-roll pairing for years to come.

The issue is that Williams has rarely been healthy in his NBA career. He’s missed considerable time in each of his first three seasons. The good news is that none of the injuries are directly related and none of them seem to a chronic thing.

The other issue with this trade is that the Lakers gave up their remaining draft capital to add Williams. Paying a first-round pick in six years, plus a swap the year before, is a lot for a guy who will probably never be more than a solid starter. In addition, Los Angeles gave up Dalton Knecht, who was a prized draft pick in just this past draft.

In the immediate, the loss of Knecht isn’t that big of a deal. The Lakers weren’t going to be able to play him with two of Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves very often. Not without Davis to clean up for them. That was going to limit Knecht’s role. Given those three players seem entrenched in Los Angeles for now, it was best to move Knecht while they could get something for him. Cam Reddish has been out of the rotation while, so there’s no production loss there.

The Lakers needed to do something up front. They reportedly sought out Doncic to find out what type of center he wanted to play with. Williams fits that mold. This was just a very high price to pay for a non-All-Star.

Charlotte Hornets

Incoming salary: $6.3 million in 2024-25

  • Dalton Knecht (SF/SG, four years, $14.5 million (rookie scale deal))
  • Cam Reddish (SF/SG, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: $4.1 million in 2024-25

  • Mark Williams (C, two years, $10.4 million)

This trade is a massive win for the Hornets. It’s not that Mark Williams isn’t a good player. He is. Williams was also a good fit with LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller on the young Charlotte roster.

But Williams wasn’t projecting to be an All-Star. He’s also regularly out of the lineup due to injuries. Center is a spot where teams can find affordable talent almost every offseason. And the Hornets got paid handsomely to move on from Williams.

Knecht is a nice prospect to work with, even if he’s eight months older than Williams, who was drafted two years earlier. Charlotte needs more shooting and scoring on the wing. With Miller out for the season, Knecht should have a clear runway to minutes. He’ll help the Hornets with his shooting and knack for drawing contact and free throws.

The real get here though is the control of the Lakers draft in the “who knows?” years. 2030 and 2031 will be post-LeBron James and we have no idea what Los Angeles will look like at that point. That’s so far out, there’s a decent chance Doncic may have also moved on. If nothing else, it’s worth the gamble for the Hornets.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2025

The Milwaukee Bucks shoot up their roster, while the Washington Wizards took on some salary for draft capital, while the Knicks and Spurs helped to facilitate.

Here are the particulars:

Milwaukee Bucks acquire: Kyle Kuzma, Jericho Sims, second-most favorable 2025 Pistons, Suns or Warriors second-round pick, 2026 top-55 protected Spurs second-round pick

Washington Wizards acquire: Khris Middleton, A.J. Johnson, draft rights for Mathias Lessort, right to swap least favorable 2028 Bucks or Trail Blazers first-round pick, Cash

New York Knicks acquire: Delon Wright, draft rights for Hugo Besson, Cash

San Antonio Spurs acquire: Patrick Baldwin, Cash

Let’s dive in!

Milwaukee Bucks

Incoming salary: $25.6 million in 2024-25

  • Kyle Kuzma (PF/SF, three years, $64.4 million)
  • Jericho Sims (C, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: $36.6 million in 2024-25

  • Khris Middleton (SF/SG, two years, $65.7 million (player option for final season))
  • A.J. Johnson (SG, four years, $14.6 million (rookie scale deal))
  • Delon Wright (PG, one year, $2.1 million)

The Bucks seemingly wanted to shake things up at the trade deadline. They did so by trading away beloved Buck Khris Middleton to bring in talented, but inconsistent forward Kyle Kuzma. Milwaukee also gave up first-round pick swap rights in the deal and 2024 first-rounder A.J. Johnson.

Middleton was oft-injured over the last few seasons. Milwaukee was often left without the veteran wing during key moments, including during the playoffs. This season, Middleton has struggled to find his form. Bucks coach Doc Rivers recently commented that it was hard for Middleton to get into a rhythm with being constantly in and out of the lineup.

Kuzma has largely been healthy in recent years. He’s been inefficient this season, but that’s come while playing with a lot of young players on a Wizards team with nothing to play for.

Milwaukee is hoping that Kuzma will give them more size on the wing, in addition to a player who will be more regularly available. The Bucks are also betting with better talent around him that Kuzma will find his shooting form again.

The Bucks also picked up Jericho Sims. Despite being given chances over the last few seasons, Sims has never been able to seize a rotation role for the Knicks. Still, Milwaukee was very thin behind Brook Lopez at center, and Sims will provide them with some depth at the five.

In addition to adding frontcourt depth, the Bucks were able to save some money for this year and next by swapping out Middleton for Kuzma. That’s big for a team that was above the second apron prior to their deadline deals.

Washington Wizards

Incoming salary: $34.5 million in 2024-25

  • Khris Middleton (SF/SG, two years, $65.7 million (player option for final season))
  • A.J. Johnson (SG, four years, $14.6 million (rookie scale deal))

Outgoing salary: $26 million in 2024-25

  • Kyle Kuzma (PF/SF, three years, $64.4 million)
  • Patrick Baldwin (SF/PF, one year, $2.5 million)

Like in their other deadline moves, the Wizards picked up additional draft capital for taking on some short-term salary over the next two seasons. Washington has talked about adding Khris Middleton to help with their younger roster, but this was really about getting a draft pick while shedding an additional year of salary for Kyle Kuzma.

Middleton may very well contribute to the Wizards for the remainder of this season, and possibly for part of next. He could also decide that making $34 million for a lottery team isn’t appealing and could decline his player option. That’s not very likely, but don’t take it offer the table.

If Washington can get Middleton back into form, he’ll become an attractive trade chip for next season, as he’ll have a large expiring salary. In the interim time, he can help a young group of wings including Bilal Coulibaly, Kyshawn George and A.J. Johnson learn how to succeed in the NBA.

Johnson is being treated as a throw-in part of this deal, but he could be more than that. Johnson is fairly athletic and is very young. There’s potential there and he’ll have a chance at minutes on the rebuilding Wizards.

San Antonio Spurs

Incoming salary: $2.5 million in 2024-25

  • Patrick Baldwin (SF/PF, one year, $2.5 million)

Outgoing salary: None

The Spurs were in this deal to act as a facilitator. They took on Baldwin’s contract for more than enough to cash to cover it. Baldwin was already waived by San Antonio.

New York Knicks

Incoming salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

  • Delon Wright (PG, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: $26 million in 2024-25

  • Jericho Sims (C, one year, $2.1 million)

The Knicks inclusion in this deal was an odd one. New York already has a glut at point guard with Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride, Cameron Payne and Tyler Kolek. All of those players are more productive than Wright is. The Knicks did get enough cash to cover Wright’s deal, so that’s likely all this was about.

New York may very well waive Wright if they need a roster spot, but that would be a down-the-line thing. The Knicks are already working with open roster spots and apron issues at it is, waiving Wright will only come if there is a real need.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2025

The Phoenix Suns and Charlotte Hornets became familiar trade partners during this trade season. The two teams linked up for another deal ahead of the deadline, after working a previous deal a few weeks earlier.

Here are the particulars:

Phoenix Suns acquire: Cody Martin, Vasilije Micic, 2026 second-round pick

Charlotte Hornets acquire: Jusuf Nurkic, least favorable 2026 Suns, Grizzlies, Magic or Wizards first-round pick.

Let’s dive in!

Phoenix Suns

Incoming salary: $15.8 million in 2024-25

  • Cody Martin (SF, two years, $16.8 million (2025-26 non-guaranteed))
  • Vasilije Micic (PG, two years, $15.8 million (2025-26 team option))

Outgoing salary: $18.1 million in 2024-25

  • Jusuf Nurkic (C, two years, $37.5 million)

This trade for the Suns was about cutting their luxury tax bill, while also adding some depth to their roster. And they managed to do that while shedding Jusuf Nurkic, who was no longer part of the plans in Phoenix.

Martin enters a crowded wing mix for the Suns. Even if you subtract Kevin Durant, who plays mostly at power forward, Martin will be competing for minutes alongside Devin Booker with Royce O’Neale, Grayson Allen, Bradley Beal and Ryan Dunn. That’s a tough group to crack.

In addition, Martin is the only player from that mix that doesn’t have guaranteed money on the books for next season. Maybe Phoenix takes a look, but we’ll see.

Micic is in a similar situation at point guard. He’ll be behind Tyus Jones and Monte Morris, and whatever minutes that Beal and Allen log at point guard too.

Micic also isn’t carrying money into next season. The Suns will hold an $8.1 million team option for the veteran point guard. There are already reports that Micic hopes that option will be declined so that he can return to Europe next season.

If nothing else, the Suns saved some on their tax bill this season, while also shaving over $19 million off the books for next season. There is a chance Phoenix could use Martin’s or Micic’s salary in a trade in the offseason, but that will depend on where things are at. This trade was about savings and flexibility, and the Suns achieved that.

Charlotte Hornets

Incoming salary: $18.1 million in 2024-25

  • Jusuf Nurkic (C, two years, $37.5 million)

Outgoing salary: $15.8 million in 2024-25

  • Cody Martin (SF, two years, $16.8 million (2025-26 non-guaranteed))
  • Vasilije Micic (PG, two years, $15.8 million (2025-26 team option))

The Hornets were miles from the luxury tax before taking on money in a few different deals. As they did in their other moves, Charlotte added draft capital. In this trade, that was in the form of a future first-round pick.

Jusuf Nurkic should have a chance to play for the Hornets. Charlotte doesn’t have much at the center position, and Nurkic is eager to prove he can still play. Look for him to get some minutes, as the Hornets would like to rebuild his trade value ahead of Nurkic having an expiring contract next season.

Throughout trade season, the Hornets have reshaped their roster while adding future draft picks. That’s what you should be doing when you’re a lottery team. In addition, Charlotte didn’t have to take back any bad salary that stretches beyond next season. That’s a win.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2025

The Toronto Raptors used some of their room under the luxury tax to help the Indiana Pacers create room under the luxury tax.

Here are the particulars:

Toronto Raptors acquire: James Wiseman, Cash

Indiana Pacers acquire: 2031 top-55 protected Raptors second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Toronto Raptors

Incoming salary: $2.2 million in 2024-25

  • James Wiseman (C, one year, $2.2 million)

Outgoing salary: None

The Raptors had plenty of room under the luxury tax. With the Pacers willing to cover Wiseman’s salary with cash, Toronto did them a favor.

Wiseman was released, which auto-declined the team option on his contract for next season. The young big man will spend the rest of this year rehabbing from a torn Achilles’ tendon. Because he was injured while with the Pacers, Wiseman can continue to rehab with the team, their medical staff and using their facilities.

Indiana Pacers

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: $2.2 million in 2024-25

  • James Wiseman (C, one year, $2.2 million)

This move was about creating a roster spot and some clearance under the luxury tax for Indiana. The Pacers could now be involved in adding a player via the buyout market. Keep an eye on big men, as Indiana is still a bit light in terms of depth behind Myles Turner and Thomas Bryant.

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2025

The Toronto Raptors again went the “pre-agency” route. The Pelicans got value for a player who was no long a part of their future plans.

Here are the particulars:

Toronto Raptors acquire: Brandon Ingram

New Orleans Pelicans acquire: Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, 2026 top-four protected Pacers first-round pick, 2031 Raptors second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Toronto Raptors

Incoming salary: $34 million in 2024-25

  • Brandon Ingram (SF, one year, $34 million)

Outgoing salary: $35.8 million in 2024-25

  • Bruce Brown (SG/SF, one year, $23 million)
  • Kelly Olynyk (C, two years, 26.3 million)

For the fourth consecutive trade deadline, the Toronto Raptors have traded a future first-round pick to acquire a pending free agent. This strategy has worked for the Raptors in the past, but this one is the biggest move yet.

Toronto has no real path to acquiring a player as good as Brandon Ingram in free agency. The Raptors don’t have cap space, nor is Toronto a free agent destination. That means not waiting to get your work done in free agency. By acquiring Ingram now, the Raptors make a pre-agency move to be in position to offer him more than anyone else can.

Ingram is set to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Ingram remains extension eligible, but he’s bound by signing for no more than is allowable via the extend-and-trade rules. That restriction remains in place for six months, which clearly takes us past the start of free agency. That means a max extension of up to three season, starting at 120% of Ingram’s current salary with 5% raises.

That means from today through June 30, Ingram could sign a three-year extension worth up to $136 million. Which begs the question: Is that enough? That’s not a max deal, but it’s not far off of one. And is a max deal coming for Ingram anyway?

Those are the questions that Ingram, his reps and the Raptors have to look at over the next several months. Toronto has some flexibility, but they are already carrying long-term money for Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickly, RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl. That’s starting to be a lot of money locked up for a team that hasn’t proven anything.

In addition, only the Brooklyn Nets project to have cap space this coming offseason. Given they are rebuilding, they aren’t likely to be up for a max deal for Ingram. Sign-and-trade deals could be in play, but that involves Toronto playing ball.

Basically, the Raptors don’t have full control here, but they should feel good about re-signing Ingram.

As far as his next contract goes, Ingram is really good. He’s a three-level scorer, and a good playmaker and rebounder. He’s also fine defensively, especially when playing with other good defenders. That’s the kind of guy who lands a near-max deal.

That core, plus Ingram, is probably a playoff team in the Eastern Conference next season. And there’s young talent behind that core group, and a high draft pick coming too.

Mostly, the Raptors didn’t trade a first-round pick and a couple of good players, to mess around with re-signing Ingram. If he’s reasonable and doesn’t demand a full max, there’s room to get something done before unrestricted free agency in July.

New Orleans Pelicans

Incoming salary: $35.8 million in 2024-25

  • Bruce Brown (SG/SF, one year, $23 million)
  • Kelly Olynyk (C, two years, 26.3 million)

Outgoing salary: $34 million in 2024-25

  • Brandon Ingram (SF, one year, $34 million)

It’s been clear for a while now that Brandon Ingram’s time in New Orleans was coming to an end. The team and Ingram were reportedly far apart in extension talks. The Pelicans were leery of locking into another big deal with Ingram, given long-term money they already have committed to several players. Ingram’s challenges with staying on the court could also be a challenge for New Orleans, given that issue persists with other players as well.

The Pelicans aren’t going to buy out either Bruce Brown or Kelly Olynyk. They’ll use both as rotation players for the remainder of this season. Olynyk should slot in nicely as a third big in a rotation with Zion Williamson and Yves Missi. Olynyk’s spacing will help spread the floor for the other big man to work inside.

Brown will give New Orleans some much-needed backcourt depth with Dejounte Murray out for the season and Herb Jones sidelined for a while longer. But this offseason is where things will get interesting for Brown.

This time around in unrestricted free agency, there won’t be any offers for $40 million-plus for Brown. But that doesn’t mean his Bird rights won’t have real value for him and the Pelicans. With almost the entire league over the cap, and several operating around the aprons, Brown could get to his next destination via sign-and-trade. Even if his annual salary is cut in half, that’s still reason enough to not take a buyout and then have to work without Bird rights this summer.

On the Pelicans side, a potential sign-and-trade of Brown could replenish some depth. And, of course, New Orleans and Brown could find that they enjoy this partnership over the next couple of months. That could lead to Brown re-signing to stay with the Pelicans beyond this season.

Overall, this is a new direction for New Orleans. They have Jones and Trey Murphy III as more-than-capable fill-ins for Ingram on the wing. The Pelicans will have a high draft pick this year to add more talent too. Getting some flexibility, both on the cap sheet and with two good players, for a guy who wasn’t in the long-term plans is good work.

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2025

The Memphis Grizzlies moved some salary out to create financial flexibility. The Sacramento Kings picked up a potential rotation player. The Washington Wizards added to their draft capital by taking on some future salary.

Here are the particulars:

Memphis Grizzlies acquire: Marvin Bagley III, Johnny Davis, least favorable 2025 Pistons, Warriors or Suns second-round pick, 2028 Kings second-round pick

Sacramento Kings acquire: Jake LaRavia

Washington Wizards acquire: Marcus Smart, Colby Jones, Alex Len, 2025 lottery-protected Grizzlies first-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Memphis Grizzlies

Incoming salary: $17.8 million in 2024-25

  • Marvin Bagley III (C/PF, one year, $12.5 million), Johnny Davis (PG, one year, $5.3 million)

Outgoing salary: $23.6 million in 2024-25

  • Marcus Smart (PG, two years, $41.7 million), Jake LaRavia (PF/SF, one year, $3.4 million)

The Memphis Grizzlies tried to make a blockbuster move. They were reportedly in on stars, including Jimmy Butler and Kevin Durant. Memphis also tried to acquire Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith. In the end, the Grizzlies chose to create some financial flexibility, which should aid them in keep some of their own players around long-term.

On the court, Memphis didn’t lose all that much here. Marcus Smart was injured for much of his Grizzlies tenure. When he did play, Smart struggled to get much going. Scotty Pippen Jr. has emerged as perfectly solid backup for Ja Morant. Losing Smart in a salary-clearing move didn’t come with a loss of much on-court production.

Jake LaRavia is a bit of a different story. LaRavia was playing well, but his time was likely growing short in Memphis. The Grizzlies declined LaRavia’s fourth-year rookie scale team option. That means he wasn’t overly likely to return next season. In addition, with GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. finally healthy, Memphis has players ready to go to replace LaRavia’s spot in the rotation.

This trade was all about creating flexibility with the cap and luxury tax as soon as next season. There’s a world where Memphis could create a small amount of cap space next summer, while retaining Santi Aldama’s restricted free agent rights.

With that cap space, Memphis could then renegotiate-and-extend Jaren Jackson Jr. this offseason. That would allow them to bump Jackson’s salary up to around $30 million for next season (more if the Grizzlies were to shed some additional salary in the offseason), then to extend Jackson off that new first-year salary. Of course, this could all be made moot by Jackson making All-NBA this season, which would open up a Designated Veteran Player Extension for the Grizzlies and their star forward.

With either path with Jackson, Memphis can retain Aldama. That’s important, as he’s become a crucial part of the Grizzlies frontcourt rotation. Memphis can control the free agency process for Aldama, as they’ll have his restricted rights. That should keep things from get out of control with offers for the forward/center.

It’s unknown at this point what will happen with Bagley and Davis. Both could be waived, as Memphis has enough clearance under the tax to replace them with prorated veteran minimum signings. Neither Bagley nor Davis has money carrying into next season, and neither’s free agent rights are valuable enough to keep the Grizzlies from waiving them now.

All around, it stings to not have done something bigger for right now with Smart’s contract. Memphis is a tier below the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference. A major addition could have pushed the Grizzlies over the top. They tried, but not succeeding doesn’t make this trade deadline a failure. It just means you have to wait a bit longer to see the results.

Sacramento Kings

Incoming salary: $3.4 million in 2024-25

  • Jake LaRavia (PF/SF, one year, $3.4 million)

Outgoing salary: $4.2 million in 2024-25

  • Colby Jones (SG/SF, three years, $6.7 million (final two seasons non-guaranteed))
  • Alex Len (C, one year, $2.1 million)

For the Kings, this was a chance to add a good player in Jake LaRavia at the cost of players who had already been replaced in the rotation. LaRavia has built on a strong finish to last season by continuing his solid play this season. The third-year combo forward has become a very good shooter and scorer, in addition to being an improved rebounder and passer.

There is one wrinkle to this deal for Sacramento, and it might not be a positive one. Because the Grizzlies declined LaRavia’s fourth-year rookie scale team option, he can’t make more than the amount of that declined option in first-year salary by re-signing with a team. That restriction carries over to the Kings, even though the Grizzlies were the ones to decline the option.

For LaRavia, that limits him to up to $5.2 million if he re-signs in Sacramento. A reasonable path forward, is probably a 1+1 deal, with a player option for $10.7 million over the two seasons. That would allow LaRavia to get back on the market in 2026, and the Kings would have his full Bird rights at that point.

Colby Jones had flashed at times for Sacramento, but was buried in the team’s wing rotation. There was no real path towards playing time for Jones with the Kings, following the team other acquisitions.

Len was replaced in a previous deal when Jonas Valanciunas was traded to Sacramento. He’d already lost most of his playing time to Trey Lyles in smaller lineups. With Valanciunas in the fold, and Lyles still around, there wasn’t really a place for Len on the roster.

Washington Wizards

Incoming salary: $24.4 million in 2024-25

  • Marcus Smart (PG, two years, $41.7 million)
  • Colby Jones (SG/SF, three years, $6.7 million (final two seasons non-guaranteed))
  • Alex Len (C, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: $17.8 million in 2024-25

  • Marvin Bagley III (C/PF, one year, $12.5 million)
  • Johnny Davis (PG, one year, $5.3 million)

As they did throughout trade season, the Wizards continued to collect assets by taking on salary. In this case, that salary for Marcus Smart stretches into the 2025-26 season. But that’s why Washington was able to get a first-round pick in this deal.

Essentially, the Wizards did at the deadline what they were likely to do with their cap space next summer: eat unwanted contracts while adding draft capital. Instead of waiting until July, Washington acted now.

Despite some buzz to the contrary, Smart won’t be bought out by the Wizards. It doesn’t make sense for him or them, considering he has money on his deal into next season. Instead, Smart will play some with a young Washington team. They’ll try to rehab some of his trade value, and then a trade for Smart will come next season when he’s on an expiring deal.

Colby Jones is a nice flyer for the Wizards. He’s shown flashes with the Kings. With Washington committed to their rebuild, he has a nice opportunity to show what he can do.

Alex Len should assume the role that Jonas Valanciunas was playing for Washington. The Wizards frontcourt is fairly thin behind rookie Alex Sarr. That should give Len an opportunity to play as a physical, rugged backup.

Neither Bagley nor Davis were playing much of a role for Washington. Bagley has been out with a knee injury, while Davis was never able to crack the regular rotation during his entire Wizards tenure.

Keith SmithFebruary 07, 2025

The Jimmy Butler saga is over! It was a complicated five-team deal in the end that saw a lot of player and draft pick movement.

Here are the particulars:

Golden State Warriors acquire: Jimmy Butler

Miami Heat acquire: Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, Davion Mitchell, 2025 Warriors top-10 protected first-round pick

Detroit Pistons acquire: Dennis Schroder, Lindy Waters III, least favorable 2031 Warriors or Timberwolves second-round pick

Utah Jazz acquire: KJ Martin, Josh Richardson, least favorable 2028 Pistons, Hornets, Clippers, Heat or Rockets second-round pick, most favorable 2031 Pacers or Heat second-round pick, Cash

Raptors acquire: P.J. Tucker, 2026 Lakers second-round pick, Cash

Let’s dive in!

Golden State Warriors

Incoming salary: $48.8 million in 2024-25

  • Jimmy Butler (SF, two years, $101.2 million (final year player option))
  • Note: Butler declined his player option for 2025-26 and signed a two-year, $112.5 million extension

Outgoing salary: $50.3 million in 2024-25

  • Andrew Wiggins (SF, three years, $84.7 million (final season player option))
  • Dennis Schroder (PG, one year, $13 million)
  • Kyle Anderson (PF, three years, $27.7 million (final season fully non-guaranteed))
  • Lindy Waters III (SG/SF, one year, $2.2 million)

The Warriors were committed to landing a star at this deadline. And they wanted to do so without giving up multiple first-round picks or Jonathan Kuminga.

Mission accomplished.

Butler comes in and seems very happy to be in the Bay Area. That’s a huge plus, given we know what happens when Butler isn’t happy. Part of the reason Butler is happy is to be out of Miami. The other part is the shiny new $112.5 million extension that he signed with the Warriors.

This trade probably doesn’t happen without Butler’s willingness to sign that extension. Sure, you can quibble about spending that kind of money for a 36-year-old perimeter player who has averaged 22 missed games per season over his past three full seasons. That deal probably won’t look good in Year 3.

But for the Warriors, you let tomorrow’s problems be tomorrow’s problems. They wanted to give Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Steve Kerr help to make another run. Butler does that.

Butler isn’t a shooter. That means Golden State will need to keep Curry and at least one or two other shooters on the floor when Butler and Green share the floor. But that’s about the only weakness in Butler’s game.

The veteran wing is still an outstanding creator, both for himself and his teammates. Butler excels in getting to his spots for midrange jumpers, and he’s still a strong finisher around the rim. He’s also terrific at setting up teammates. His skill-set should fit in quite well within the Warriors read-and-react system.

On defense, Butler is better defending bigger wings at this point in his career. He’s not quite as versatile as Andrew Wiggins, who he’s replacing, but Butler is still an above-average defender.

Giving up a first-round pick was a bit rough, but the Warriors don’t really have time for developmental projects. They’d rather use that roster spot in the coming years on a veteran addition that can give them productive minutes now.

Golden State has some more roster work to do. They started that process by converting Quinten Post from his two-way deal to a standard contract. Post has played well and gives the Warriors a stretch-five element that they’ve lacked.

Golden State still has three more open standard roster spots (they’ll have to fill at least two of them eventually), and now and open two-way spot. Because they are only $1.37 million under their first-apron hard cap, expect the Warriors to play some roster games with 10 Day deals until making rest-of-season signings late in the regular season.

Miami Heat

Incoming salary: $41.5 million in 2024-25

  • Andrew Wiggins (SF, three years, $84.7 million (final season player option))
  • Kyle Anderson (PF, three years, $27.7 million (final season fully non-guaranteed))
  • Davion Mitchell (PG, one year, $6.5 million)

Outgoing salary: $51.9 million in 2024-25

  • Jimmy Butler (SF, two years, $101.2 million (final year player option))
  • Josh Richardson (SG/PG, one year, $3.1 million)

Considering the Heat were backed into a corner with trading Jimmy Butler, they did pretty well here. Miami saved a good amount of money in the near term, while adding three helpful players.

Andrew Wiggins is a good player and should fit in well alongside Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro in the Heat’s starting lineup. Don’t be surprised to see Wiggins push back to nearly 20 points per game in Miami’s equal opportunity offensive system. The veteran wing is also a solid defender, who adds some versatility to Erik Spoelstra’s defensive schemes.

Davion Mitchell just seems like a Heat player. Given all the off-court uncertainty with Terry Rozier III, and his slipping on-court production, Mitchell could be a long-term player in Miami. He’s a bulldog defensively and showed some playmaking skills for Toronto at points this season. At the very least, Mitchell will be the best backcourt defender on the roster.

It’s unknown what kind of role Kyle Anderson will play. Early reports were that Miami was trying to move Anderson on to another team, but was unable to do so. The 12th-year forward is a solid connector on offense. He moves the ball well and he can hit the occasional jumper too. Anderson is also a solid defender. Don’t be surprised if Spoelstra finds a way to work him into his rotation.

Getting the Warriors first-round pick is a nice addition in this deal for the Heat. Miami has drafted well in the back half of the first round previously. This pick will likely convey this year in the mid-to-late teens. That’s good, given Miami has been out some draft picks in recent years.

Butler put the Heat in a nearly impossible situation. There was no way they could bring him back. That would have been a disaster for all parties involved. Now, the team can move forward with some solid players, some roster certainty and hopefully far less drama.

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: $15.2 million in 2024-25

  • Dennis Schroder (PG, one year, $13 million)
  • Lindy Waters III (SG/SF, one year, $2.2 million)

Outgoing salary: $7.9 million in 2024-25

  • KJ Martin (PF/SF, two years, $16 million (final season non-guaranteed))
  • Note 1: We’ll also cover the Pistons acquiring KJ Martin from the Philadelphia 76ers here in a previous trade
  • Note 2: The Pistons waived Wendell Moore Jr. to create the roster space to complete these moves

Detroit did well with their cap space. For a little bit, it looked like Trajan Langdon was going to eat a couple of a salaries for assets. That would have been fine, but a late swerve brought in Dennis Schroder as a helpful rotation player. Don’t count out Lindy Waters III either.

In this five-team deal and the earlier deal with the Sixers, the Pistons added a sum total of two new second-round picks (three in, one out). But this wasn’t just about the picks for a change. Detroit added roster help too.

Schroder will play an immediate role for the Pistons as a backup ballhandler. With Jaden Ivey out for a while longer (Ivey could return before the end of the regular season), JB Bickerstaff really needed another on-ball playmaker. Too much of the burden to create everything was falling on Cade Cunningham. If the Pistons want to make a real run at the playoffs, they can’t burn out Cunningham in the regular season.

That’s where Schroder will help. He’s still a good scorer, and he’s a far better fit in the Pistons pick-and-roll heavy offense than the Warriors read-and-react system. Schroder will work the screen games to get downhill, to get to his pullup or to set up teammates.

Waters is a shooter. On nights when Malik Beasley or Tim Hardaway Jr. are out or off the mark, Bickerstaff can go to Waters.

The mechanics of the Pistons deadline maneuvering were fascinating too. Detroit entered the day with $14 million in cap space. They first used some of that space to acquire KJ Martin in a salary-shedding move from the 76ers. Detroit then flipped Martin to the Jazz in this five-team deal, with Schroder eating up most of the remaining cap space. Waters was then acquired via the Minimum Exception. Crucially, this sequence of moves left the Pistons with the full $7.9 million Room Exception. That could be handy to help Langdon outbid rivals during buyout season.

For the 76ers part in the previous trade of Martin to Detroit, they got a minimal amount of cash. The real get for Philadelphia was getting under the luxury tax for this season.

Utah Jazz

Incoming salary: $11 million in 2024-25

  • KJ Martin (PF/SF, two years, $16 million (final season non-guaranteed))
  • Josh Richardson (SG/PG, one year, $3.1 million)

Outgoing salary: $11.5 million in 2024-25

  • P.J. Tucker (PF, one year, $11.5 million)
  • Note: The Jazz waived Jalen Hood-Schifino to create the roster space  to complete this trade

The Jazz jumped into this deal to act as a facilitator, while picking up some additional draft capital. In addition, Utah will take a flyer on Martin for the remainder of this season. As his contract is non-guaranteed for 2025-26, the Jazz can move on at no cost this summer, if Martin doesn’t work out.

Martin is an uber-athletic forward. He should get a chance to show what he can do, as Utah has regularly been holding their veteran players out of games. Given the Jazz chances at good lottery odds, don’t expect that to stop anytime soon. That will give Martin the opportunity to show he can be someone worth keeping around beyond this season.

Richardson will reportedly be waived. He could still help a team that needs some backcourt help. The challenge for Richardson has been getting and staying healthy this season.

Toronto Raptors

Incoming salary: $11.5 million in 2024-25

  • P.J. Tucker (PF, one year, $11.5 million)

Outgoing salary: $6.5 million in 2024-25

  • Davion Mitchell (PG, one year, $6.5 million)

The Raptors used some of their space under the luxury tax to help facilitate this trade. In exchange for taking on Tucker’s salary, Toronto picked up a second-round pick.

Trading Mitchell might seem like a giveaway, but Toronto wants to give the backup point guard minutes to rookie Jamal Shead. Considering Shead is younger version of Mitchell in many ways, it makes sense to prioritize playing time for the rookie.

It’s expected the Raptors will eventually waive Tucker. Toronto is in the midst of churning the bottom of their roster, including promoting Jamison Battle from his two-way contract.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 07, 2025

The Philadelphia 76ers added some guard depth on a two-way contract, while clearing out some salary and adding some second-round draft capital. The Wizards used some of their tax room to eat a salary, while adding a first-round pick.

Here are the particulars:

Philadelphia 76ers acquire: Jared Butler (two-way player), most favorable of 2027 Warriors or Suns second-round pick, 2028 Warriors second-round pick, 2030 Warriors second-round pick, most favorable of 2030 Suns or Trail Blazers second-round pick

Washington Wizards acquire: Reggie Jackson, least favorable of 2026 Rockets, Clippers or Thunder first-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming salary: None (two-way players count as $0 in trade)

Outgoing salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

  • Reggie Jackson (PG, one year, $2.1 million)

Jackson had been a rotation regular for Nick Nurse, but the Sixers have a decent amount of point guard depth. This move was part of a series of moves to that helped Philadelphia to get under the luxury tax line.

In addition to getting under the tax, the Sixers picked up four future second-round picks in exchange for a first-round pick. That’s adding to the coffers long-term.

Lastly, let’s not overlook the addition of Butler. He’s an NBA-caliber backup point guard. Don’t be surprised if Butler is eventually converted to a standard contract by the Sixers before the send of the season.

Washington Wizards

Incoming salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

  • Reggie Jackson (PG, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: None (two-way players count as $0 in trade)

This one is pretty simple from the Wizards side. They use some of their considerable space under the luxury tax, plus a bunch of extra second-round picks to add another first-round pick. That’s solid work.

Jackson was waived. He’s got enough left in the tank to help a playoff team that needs some point guard depth. Look for Jackson to catch on with someone on a rest-of-season contract.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 07, 2025

The Houston Rockets used some of their room under the luxury tax to pick up a couple of second round picks. The Boston Celtics saved $15 million in luxury tax payments by moving off a non-rotation player.

Here are the particulars:

Houston Rockets acquire: Jaden Springer, 2026 Pelicans or Trail Blazers second-round pick, 2030 Celtics second-round pick

Boston Celtics acquire: 2031 top-55 protected Rockets second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Houston Rockets

Incoming salary: $4 million in 2024-25

  • Jaden Springer (SG, one year, $4 million)

Outgoing salary: None

The Rockets had about $10.5 million in space under the luxury tax. As such, they used a portion of the Non-Taxpayer MLE to bring in Jaden Springer. Houston subsequently waived Springer.

Essentially, the Rockets spent $4 million to buy two second-round picks from Boston.

Springer is a solid defensive player, but his lack of offense has kept him from progressing forward. That said, he’s young enough that a rebuilding team should take a look at him for the rest of the season.

Boston Celtics

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: $4 million in 2024-25

  • Jaden Springer (SG, one year, $4 million)

This was all about saving some money for the Celtics. Boston got off $4 million in salary by trading Springer, who wasn’t a regular rotation player. But the real savings came with the luxury tax. Because the Celtics are so deep into the tax, they saved about $15 million in tax penalties with this move.

Boston has a deep roster, and they should be in position to acquire second-round pick down the line, should they need them. The Celtics already re-invested some of the saving by agreeing to a contract with veteran wing Torrey Craig.

Keith SmithFebruary 06, 2025

The NBA trade deadline has passed. For most, that means it’s time to take a breath and reset. For NBA front offices, they get right back to work.

The buyout market is the less-glamorous cousin to the trade deadline. With what an insane blockbuster-filled deadline we’ve head, the 2025 buyout market seems even less-glamorous than usual.

That said, there will still be some recognizable names on the buyout market…maybe.

As they were a season ago, teams are working under new rules in the buyout market. Gone are the days of the most expensive teams filling out their roster by snagging a high-salaried player who gave up the equivalent to a prorated veteran minimum to chase a ring.

Under the current CBA, teams who are over the first or second apron are restricted from signing a player after a buyout (or waiver) whose previous contract was greater than the Non-Taxpayer MLE for the current season. For this year, that’s $12,822,000.

So, on one side, you have a handful of contenders out of the mix to add a formerly high-salaried player. On the player side, they may be less likely to take a buyout if their options for the next team are limited.

For example, if you are making $20 million-plus, but your options are limited of where to go next, you may be better off staying where you are. This is especially true of players who have full Bird Rights as a free agent in the summer of 2025. That could lock in a bigger contract via re-signing or sign-and-trade than is prudent to give up by taking a buyout.

The same is true for teams. If they are capped out, they might prefer to have a player on an expiring deal, as opposed to buying them out. Similar to the player side, a team would rather be able to use that player’s Bird Rights to bump up their salary in an outgoing sign-and-trade deal.

So, if you add it all up, this buyout market could look vastly different from previous ones. Several players will still hit the market, as their contract situations now and moving forward won’t prevent them from taking a buyout.

As of this writing, the following teams are over the first or second apron and will be restricted from signing a player who makes more than $12,822,000 currently:

In addition, the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors are so tight to the first apron (at which they are hard-capped), they’re unlikely be heavily involved in the buyout market (pending additional moves).

Lastly, it’s important to remember that a lot of buyout players are more name than game. As one NBA GM put years ago, “There’s a reason they’re available in the middle of the season for the minimum.”

With all of that said, here are some of the players to keep an eye in the 2025 buyout market!

(Note: This list is presented in alphabetical order. Players with a * are restricted from signing with an apron team due to the rules explained above.)

Marvin Bagley III (Memphis Grizzlies, C/PF, 26 years old)

Remaining Salary: $12.5 million

Bagley’s salary slides in right under the threshold for an apron team. Teams looking for frontcourt depth might be interested in bringing the veteran big man in for a rest-of-season look. Memphis could also keep Bagley, but they are flush in frontcourt depth as it is. This one screams traditional buyout scenario.

Bojan Bogdanovic (Brooklyn Nets, SF/PF, 36 years old) *

Remaining Salary: $19 million

Bogdanovic hasn’t played this season, but teams know what he’s capable of. If the Nets move on because of a need for a roster spot (they have some interesting two-way conversion candidates in Tyrese Martin and Tosan Evbuomwan), Bogdanovic could be bought out or waived. At this point, contenders who need a shooter with size might take a look.

Malcolm Brogdon (Washington Wizards, PG/SG, 32 years old) *

Remaining Salary: $22.5 million

Brogdon would normally be a great candidate for a buyout. Given that he can’t join any of the apron teams, Brogdon would need to have something lined up to join a non-apron contender. On Washington’s side, the Wizards already project to have cap space this summer. That makes Brogdon’s Bird Rights less valuable for them. But those Bird Rights are still valuable to Brogdon. He may not want to give them up.

Bruce Brown (New Orleans Pelicans, SG, 28 years old) *

Remaining Salary: $23 million

Brown is being traded to the Pelicans in a deal that sends Brandon Ingram to the Toronto Raptors. New Orleans is rebuilding and has high-priority players at Brown’s position. But the Pelicans don’t plan to stay down for long. That means Brown’s Bird Rights have value. Call this a 50-50 situation at best.

Torrey Craig (Chicago Bulls, SG/SF, 34 years old)

Previous Salary: $2.8 million

Craig was waived to allow Chicago to complete their three-team deal with the San Antonio Spurs and Sacramento Kings. Craig has dealt with a lot of injuries this season. He’s also getting a bit long in the tooth. But when he’s right, Craig can give a team a 3&D wing presence. Someone might give him a look on a rest-of-season contract.

UPDATE - Agreed to signed with Boston (2/6/25)

Seth Curry (Charlotte Hornets, PG/SG, 34 years old)

Remaining Salary: $2.1 million

This one is really about if the Hornets need a roster spot or not. Moussa Diabate and K.J. Simpson are candidates to be converted to a standard contract from their two-way deals. If that happens, Curry could be a roster casualty. From there, Curry could head off to ring chase with a contender in need of some bench shooting.

Reggie Jackson (Washington Wizards, PG, 35 years old)

Remaining Salary: $2.1 million

Jackson was moved to the Wizards in a salary-clearing move by the Philadelphia 76ers. There’s no real place for Jackson with Washington. He’s likely to be waived. From there, he could catch on with a playoff team that needs some backcourt depth.

Tre Jones (Chicago Bulls, PG, 25 years old)

Remaining Salary: $9.1 million

Jones is a high-quality backup point guard. Teams are always looking for depth at that position. In addition, the Bulls have a bunch of other guards, including ones they have an investment in. Keep an on Jones popping free.

Vasilije Micic (Phoenix Suns, PG, 31 years old)

Remaining Salary: $7.7 million ($8.1 million team option for 2025-26)

Micic is now caught up in a quagmire of point guards in Phoenix. The Suns aren’t likely to have a need for both him and Monte Morris as depth at point guard. That could see Micic set free. From there, it’s 50-50 if he’d sign with another NBA team or return back to Europe, where he was a star.

Monte Morris (Phoenix Suns, PG, 29 years old)

Remaining Salary: $2.1 million

See above, then note: Morris has fallen out of the Suns rotation. He’s on a Veteran Minimum deal already, so there won’t be a buyout here. But if Phoenix thinks they have more of a need and need a roster spot. Morris could be a straight waiver candidate. He can still play, so a team in need of a point guard could sign Morris, or even claim his deal, given his Minimum status.

Chris Paul (San Antonio Spurs, PG, 39 years old)

Remaining Salary: $10.5 million

We’re only including Paul because he’s been bandied about as a buyout candidate, given the Spurs acquisition of De’Aaron Fox. Don’t bet on that happening. The Spurs love what Paul has brought them. They think playing him and Fox together is fine for the rest of the season. If Paul did shake loose, he’d vault to the top of the available point guard rankings.

Cam Reddish (Charlotte Hornets, SF/SG, 25 years old)

Remaining Salary: $2.5M

Reddish was thrown in to the deal that brought Dalton Knecht from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Charlotte Hornets for Mark Williams. That was to get to the Lakers off some salary and to open a roster spot. Given all the injuries on the wing in Charlotte, Reddish could get a chance to play. This one will come down to if the Hornets need an open roster spot or not. If waived, Reddish could link up with a team that wants to see if they can finally pull the 3&D player out of the 25-year-old wing.

Josh Richardson (Utah Jazz, SG/PG, 31 years old)

Remaining Salary: $3.1 million

Richardson is being moved to the Jazz for salary-matching/clearing purposes in the Jimmy Butler trade. He hasn’t been able to play much this season due to injuries. Utah doesn’t have a need for Richardson, especially given the injury issues. If Richardson is healthy, he could help a contender that needs a combo guard on their bench.

Ben Simmons (Brooklyn Nets, PG, 28 years old) *

Remaining Salary: $40.3 million

Simmons is a possible buyout candidate, but a lot will depend on the Nets situation. If Brooklyn needs a roster spot (they have some interesting two-way conversion candidates), they could look to buy out or waive Simmons. There’s also a chance Brooklyn and Simmons would rather use his Bird Rights for something bigger this coming summer.

Daniel Theis (Oklahoma City Thunder, C, 33 years old)

Previous Salary: $2.1 million

The Thunder waived Daniel Theis after eating his contract to help the New Orleans Pelicans get under the luxury tax. Oklahoma City wanted to open a roster spot to convert Ajay Mitchell to a standard contract. That’s where this likely heads eventually for the Thunder.

P.J. Tucker (Toronto Raptors, PF, 39 years old)

Remaining Salary: $11.5 million

Tucker is probably going to get straight waived by the Raptors, without a buyout. It’d be surprising if any team signs him, because Tucker hasn’t played in nearly a year. At this point, the veteran forward epitomizes the “more name than game” philosophy.

Delon Wright (New York Knicks, PG, 33 years old)

Remaining Salary: $2.1 million

Wright is about the eighth point guard on the Knicks. That’s a bit of an exaggeration, but not by much. He could be set free to join a team where he’d see more time. However, Wright lost his role as the Milwaukee Bucks backup point guard this season. There might not be much left in the tank here.

Lonnie Walker IV (Zalgiris (Lithuania), SG, 26 years old)

Remaining Salary: N/A

We’re adding Walker here, because there is considerable interest in him from NBA fans. Walker has an NBA out with Zalgiris that has to be triggered by February 18, per reports. If triggered, Walker would presumably be signing a rest-of-season minimum deal. However, it’s worth noting that Walker has struggled against EuroLeague competition. He’s shot 38.5% in 18 EuroLeague games, including 33.6% on three-pointers. For a player whose primary value is his shooting and scoring, that’s worrisome for a potential return to the NBA.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 05, 2025

The Sacramento Kings got creative with their exceptions to add a long-wanted backup for Domantas Sabonis. The Washington Wizards picked up some additional draft capital for moving along a short-term veteran.

Here are the particulars:

Sacramento Kings acquire: Jonas Valanciunas

Washington Wizards acquire: Sidy Cissoko, 2028 Nuggets second-round pick, 2029 Kings second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Sacramento Kings

Incoming salary: $9.9 million in 2024-25

  • Jonas Valanciunas (C, three years, $30.3 million (final season non-guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $1.9 million in 2024-25

  • Sidy Cissoko (SF/PF, two years, $4.1 million (2025-26 non-guaranteed))

The Kings had been searching for a viable backup for Domantas Sabonis for a few years. Alex Len has been serviceable, but is more of a third string center. Trey Lyles does what he can, but he’s a pure stretch four.

Jonas Valanciunas should more than capably fill that backup role. There are even some potential lineups constructions where Valanciunas could play alongside Sabonis in a double-big look.

This season, Valanciunas has adapted well to being a backup on the rebuilding Wizards. The veteran center is still an effective scorer, screener and rebounder. Washington mostly used him as a protector for Alex Sarr and to help set a tone off the bench.

With the Kings, Valanciunas will probably play less than he did with the Wizards. But less may be more, as Valanciunas should be able to play his physical, rugged style without worry of foul trouble or conserving energy for longer minutes.

The mechanism used to acquire Valanciunas saw Sacramento take advantage of the new rules that allowed them to use a portion of their Non-Taxpayer MLE as a Traded Player Exception. That allows the Kings to keep the big $16.8 million TPE that they created in the Kevin Huerter trade whole. Considering the MLE expires at the end of the season, this is solid use of it as a TPE.

Sacramento still has two open roster spots. They’ll have to fill one within the next couple of weeks. The Kings are about $2.5 million under the luxury tax, which will act as a de facto hard cap for the team.

While Sacramento isn’t quite good enough to pay the tax for this group, they have improved their team quite a bit over the last few days. That’s a hard needle to thread when you trade a former franchise player, but the Kings have pulled it off.

Washington Wizards

Incoming salary: $1.9 million in 2024-25

  • Sidy Cissoko (SF/PF, two years, $4.1 million (2025-26 non-guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $9.9 million in 2024-25

  • Jonas Valanciunas (C, three years, $30.3 million (final season non-guaranteed))

We aren’t going to focus much on getting Sidy Cissoko for the Wizards. Reports are that he’ll be waived, if he’s not moved in a subsequent trade before the deadline.

This deal for Washington was about adding some additional draft capital. Jonas Valanciunas didn’t turn into a first-round pick, but getting two seconds for him is solid work.

The Wizards are still in the early stages of their rebuild. That means collecting assets. This one came in somewhat unconventional means, as Valanciunas was added via sign-and-trade this past offseason. But that’s the kind of creative, forward-thinking move you have to make when rebuilding.

The time Valanciunas spent in Washington also allowed the team to not have to force Alex Sarr to start at center until he was ready. And going against Valanciunas in practices for a half-season has helped Sarr.

With Valanciunas off the books, the Wizards project to be a cap space team this coming offseason. Effectively, Washington is shedding $10 million off their 2025-26 books by trading Valanciunas, but they’ll likely take on around that much when they complete the trade that swaps Khris Middleton for Kyle Kuzma.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 05, 2025

It wouldn’t be an NBA trade deadline without Sam Presti coming away with at least one future draft pick. That’s exactly what happened, as the Oklahoma City Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans linked up in a small deal.

Here are the particulars:

Oklahoma City Thunder acquire: Daniel Theis, less favorable 2031 Pelicans or Magic second-round pick

New Orleans Pelicans acquire: Cash

Let’s dive in!

Oklahoma City Thunder

Incoming salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

  • Daniel Theis (C, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: None

This is a pretty simple deal for both teams. The Thunder are using some of their considerable space under the luxury tax to eat Theis’ contract, while adding yet another second-round pick.

Theis will probably stick in Oklahoma City, at least until Chet Holmgren returns. Theis gives the team solid center depth behind Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams.

When Holmgren is back, the Thunder could move on from Theis to free up a roster spot to convert two-way player Ajay Mitchell to a standard contract. Mitchell was in line for the promotion before suffering a turf toe injury. The rookie guard is out for several more weeks, as he recovers from a surgical procedure for the injury.

The pick the Thunder are getting in this trade is so far off, that it’s impossible to know what it will be. But Oklahoma City previously had only their own second-round pick in 2031, and that just couldn’t stand. Now, Sam Presti has the requisite extra pick that he must have in every round of every draft.

New Orleans Pelicans

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

  • Daniel Theis (C, one year, $2.1 million)

The New Orleans Pelicans streak of never paying the luxury tax in franchise history will continue. By moving Theis, and with Dejounte Murray set to miss out on some currently likely bonuses due to missing the rest of the season, the Pelicans will dip below the tax line.

Expect New Orleans to use some of their newfound room beneath the tax to convert Brandon Boston Jr. to a standard contract. Boston has played well for the injury-ravaged Pelicans and they’d like to have him on a longer-term deal.

Paying the price of a second to dodge the tax is worth it for the Pelicans. The team isn’t anywhere near contention this year, and there’s a chance that New Orleans will be expensive down the line. It’s best to put some extra cash, via both this trade and the upcoming luxury tax disbursement, in ownership’s coffers now. Then, if the tax can’t be avoided down the line when the team is back in as a playoff contender, hopefully they’ll have bought some goodwill and the go-ahead to stay over the tax.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 04, 2025

The Dallas Mavericks used some of their newly acquired wing depth to make a trade for more size on the perimeter, along with cap-sheet surety. The Philadelphia 76ers picked up a younger player, who fits no matter what direction the team takes at the trade deadline and moving forward.

Here are the particulars:

Dallas Mavericks acquire: Caleb Martin

Philadelphia 76ers acquire: Quentin Grimes, 2025 76ers second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Dallas Mavericks

Incoming salary: $8.1 million in 2024-25

  • Caleb Martin (SF/PF, four years, $35 million (final season player option))

Outgoing salary: $4.3 million in 2024-25

  • Quentin Grimes (SG, one year, $4.3 million)

After acquiring Max Christie in the Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis trade, Quentin Grimes was expendable for the Mavericks. Grimes and Christie overlap in position and role, as both are 3&D wings for the Mavericks. The advantage with Christie is that he’s already signed to a team-friendly contract for the next few seasons.

Grimes is a pending restricted free agent. Dallas and Grimes were unable to come to an agreement on a rookie scale extension this past offseason. That left his status up in the air, as Grimes is headed into restricted free agency this offseason.

Valuations for Grimes vary around the NBA. Some teams are worried about his injury history, and inconsistent production. Other teams value his plug-and-play ability as a good shooter that can defend all three perimeter positions. That lands Grimes as an MLE-plus player, in terms of his projected next contract.

That means Grimes could expect a first-year salary between the MLE amount (projected to be just over $14 million for 2025-26) and around $15 million. Given that Christie is signed for just $7.7 million next season, it’s easy to see why Dallas moved on.

The Mavericks have a big contractual item to work out with Kyrie Irving this offseason. That’s in addition to rebuilding the roster around a re-signed Irving and the newly-acquired Davis. That’s where adding Caleb Martin comes in.

Martin and Christie combine to make slightly more than Grimes projects to in 2025-26. In addition, both Martin and Christie are under contract through at least 2026-27. That’s the kind of surety that Dallas wants as they navigate in a post-Doncic world.

On the court, Martin brings more size than Grimes. While Grimes is more of a small wing/combo guard defensively, Martin is a big wing/combo forward. Grimes has been a lights-out shooter this season, only recent dipping below 40% on 4.3 three-point attempts per game. Martin won’t shoot quite that well, or on that kind of volume. Martin is at 38% this year, but that’s a bit above his career average. Martin’s defense has also slipped a bit this season, but he’s still a solid defender.

The big thing here is that Dallas now has a clear runway to minutes for Christie. Instead of Christie and Grimes competing for playing time, the new addition can step right into a rotation role. Christie projects to be just as good of a shooter as Grimes, and he has a bit more size. The soon-to-be 22-year-old has also flashed a few on-ball skills too. That will allow Martin to slot into a forward rotation that will feature Davis, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson and P.J. Washington, pending any forthcoming trades.

In an uncertain environment moving forward, as Dallas retools from their mega-trade, this deal brings some security to Jason Kidd’s wing rotation. That’s worth something, even if giving up Grimes is tough to swallow.

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming salary: $4.3 million in 2024-25

  • Quentin Grimes (SG, one year, $4.3 million)

Outgoing salary: $8.1 million in 2024-25

  • Caleb Martin (SF/PF, four years, $35 million (final season player option))

This is a move that can benefit the Sixers right now, as well as having some staying power for years to come. Philadelphia’s roster could be in transition from this trade deadline through the offseason. With the emergence of Ricky Council IV and Justin Edwards as younger bigger wings, the Sixers didn’t have as much need for Caleb Martin moving forward.

Adding Quentin Grimes’ defense and shooting to the backcourt fills a bigger need for Philadelphia. The Sixers have been light on backcourt defense this season. Tyrese Maxey is carrying such a heavy offensive load, that his defense has slipped a bit. Eric Gordon is on the floor for his shooting and scoring, not his defense. The team’s best backcourt defender has been Kyle Lowry…which says quite a bit at this point.

Grimes will immediately upgrade the perimeter defense. He can guard either backcourt position, plus smaller wings. In addition, Grimes’ shooting is a nice get for Nick Nurse’s rotation.

On the cap sheet, the Sixers should be in position to retain Grimes long-term. He’s young enough to fit if Philadelphia pivots to trading out some veterans ahead of the deadline. He’s also good enough right now to fit if the 76ers pursue upgrades to make a playoff push. Grimes will probably make almost double what Martin was expected to for 2025-26, but the Sixers have enough other money coming off the books to make that palatable. Having Grimes’ restricted free agent rights will also help Philadelphia to control his free agency process.

In addition, this move dropped the Sixers below the first apron. That gives the team a bit of extra flexibility in trades before the deadline. If Philadelphia stays below the first apron, they’ll have the added benefit of being able to pursue any player that hits the buyout market. Remember: apron teams can’t sign a player after a buyout if that player’s previous salary was more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE (approximately $12.8 million).

This is a good move for the Sixers. Martin is a nice player, but his place on the roster was starting to feel pretty tenuous. Grimes is a better bet moving forward, even after factoring in that he needs a new contract. In fact, don’t be surprised if Grimes emerges as the long-term backcourt running mate for Maxey, as their skill-sets mesh quite well.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 04, 2025

Luka Doncic is a Los Angeles Laker.

That still seems crazy to read, but here we are.

In the immediate, the Lakers will be figuring out how to incorporate Doncic alongside LeBron James, while trying to add complementary talent around the two stars. But this move was more about the future in Los Angeles than it was about the present.

That future involves Luka Doncic’s next contract. But before we get there, let’s look at what Doncic was in line for with the Dallas Mavericks.

To set the stage, here’s what’s left on Doncic’s current deal:

  • 2024-25: $43,031,940
  • 2025-26: $45,999,167
  • 2026-27: $48,967,380 (player option)

Doncic becomes extension-eligible this summer. The expectation has long been that he’d opt out of his current deal and start a new one in 2026-27. That was expected to be a Designated Veteran Player Extension (DVPE) with the Mavericks. That deal projected to look like this:

  • 2026-27: $59,539,200
  • 2027-28: $64,302,336
  • 2028-29: $69,065,472
  • 2029-30: $73,828,608
  • 2030-31: $78,591,744
  • Total: five years, $345,327,360

That’s a 35% of the cap max with 8% raises. It’s very likely the final season would have included a player option, as someone of Doncic’s status always commands a player option.

Unfortunately, that’s no longer on the table. In order to qualify for the DVPE, a player has to meet awards requirements (All-NBA, MVP or Defensive Player of the Year). No issue for Doncic, as he’s an All-NBA guy without any worry.

However, a player can only get a DVPE in a deal from the team that drafted them, or acquired them while they were still on their rookie scale deal. Having been traded to the Lakers, that’s now out the window for Doncic.

So, where does that leave Doncic and the Lakers? Let’s dive in!

The Veteran Extension

Doncic is eligible to sign a standard Veteran Extension with the Lakers. Let’s assume that he’s still going to opt out for 2026-27, so we’ll start there. Doncic is eligible this summer (after six months have passed from the trade to the Los Angeles) to sign an extension that can start at 140% of his previous salary in the final year of his current contract. That would take him over his max salary. So, he’ll start that deal at the max he’s eligible for. The Veteran Extension for Doncic projects to look like this:

  • 2026-27: $51,033,600
  • 2027-28: $55,116,288
  • 2028-29: $59,198,976
  • 2029-30: $63,281,664
  • Total: four years, $228,630,528

That’s a 30% of the cap max with 8% raises. Doncic would be limited to signing for just four years, because a Veteran Extension plus what’s remaining on the contract can run for no longer than five total seasons. Like with any deal Doncic is going to sign, he’ll likely have a player option on the final season.

If we do a four-year-to-four-year comparison, Doncic would lose roughly $46 million in this structure vs the DVPE from the Mavericks.

That’s a pretty big chunk of change. But there’s a way Doncic can recoup some of that lost salary, while still locking in security long-term. Let’s go there next.

The “Donovan Mitchell” Extension

When the Cleveland Cavaliers traded for Donovan Mitchell, they hoped he’d be happy enough with the team that he’d extend. Like Luka Doncic, Mitchell also lost ability to sign a DVPE when he was traded from the Utah Jazz. However, Mitchell and the Cavs got creative, kind of split the difference and made the best of their now mutual situation.

Instead of locking in for every year and dollar he could on a Veteran Extension, Mitchell signed a shorter-term extension. That deal gives Mitchell the ability to opt out when he has achieved 10 Years of Service. Then, he’s eligible to sign a new deal starting at 35% of the cap.

Here’s what that would look like for Doncic on a shorter-term Veteran Extension with the Lakers. This assumes the same strategy of opting out for the 2026-27 season as the Veteran Extension did:

  • 2026-27: $51,033,600
  • 2027-28: $55,116,288
  • 2028-29: $59,198,976 (player option)
  • Total: three years, $165,348,864

Now, here you can see we included the player option on the final season. That’s because that’s the only way this works. For Doncic, after the 2027-28 season completes, he’ll have 10 Years of Service. He could then opt out and sign a five-year deal that would start at 35% of the cap.

It’s a little wonky to look that far out, because we don’t have a great handle on how the cap will continue to grow. But that new deal in 2028-29 projects to look like this:

  • 2028-29: $72,042,250
  • 2029-30: $77,805,630
  • 2030-31: $83,569,010
  • 2031-32: $89,332,390
  • 2032-33: $95,095,770
  • Total: five years, $417,845,050

That’s 35% of the cap max with 8% raises. And, sure, Doncic will probably get a player option and have one more chance to cash in when he’s 33 years old in 2032.

Let’s pause here to say: We have no idea what the cap growth will be by the time we get to 2028-29. That’s the final season of the current CBA, barring something very unexpected. But this is still in the range of what Doncic could sign for, if he did the shorter-term extension like Mitchell.

Re-signing with the Lakers as a free agent

Let’s say Luka Doncic decides to play out his current contract and then to re-sign on a new deal with the Los Angeles Lakers. As unlikely as that path is, here’s what that contract could look like:

  • 2026-27: $51,033,600
  • 2027-28: $55,116,288
  • 2028-29: $59,198,976
  • 2029-30: $63,281,664
  • 2020-31: $67,364,352
  • Total: five years, $295,994,880

This is the same 30% of the cap first-year salary as Doncic could get by signing a Veteran Extension. It also includes 8% raises. The only difference is the addition of a fifth year, which Doncic can only get by re-signing as a free agent with the Lakers. And, say it with me, that final season would likely be a player option.

Signing with another team as a free agent

Let’s say things go completely sideways for Luka Doncic in Los Angeles and he’s on the first plane out of town in 2026. This is probably the second-least likely scenario behind simply re-signing as a free agent with the Lakers, because Doncic is far more likely to extend. But for comparison’s sake, here’s what he could sign for with another team as a free agent:

  • 2026-27: $51,033,600
  • 2027-28: $53,585,280
  • 2028-29: $56,136,960
  • 2029-30: $58,688,640
  • Total: four years, $219,444,480

The starting salary is the same as extending or re-signing at 30% of the cap. But this deal has only 5% raises and can run for only four seasons. And, you guessed it, the final season would likely be a player option.

Summary

Luka Doncic is going to get paid and paid handsomely on his next contract. It won’t be the so-called supermax, as he’s no longer eligible. But Doncic is still going to sign one of the biggest contracts in NBA history.

We rank the likelihood of each potential deal this way:

  1. The “Donovan Mitchell” Extension
  2. The Veteran Extension
  3. Signing with another team as a free agent
  4. Re-signing with the Lakers as a free agent

If we run the 2026-27 through 2029-30 four-year-to-four-year comparisons for each scenario we get:

  • The “Donovan Mitchell” Extension: $237,391,114
  • The Veteran Extension: $228,630,528
  • Signing with another team as a free agent: $219,444,480
  • Re-signing with the Lakers as a free agent: $228,630,528

As you can see: The “Donovan Mitchell” Extension is the most lucrative option. In addition, that comes with the added benefit of running through 2033 at a projected final-season salary of over $95 million. A truly mind-bending, yet forthcoming, single-season salary figure.

Doncic can’t really get more money by signing a Veteran Extension with the Lakers, as opposed to re-signing with the Lakers a free agent. This is especially true, when you factor in that he’s likely to opt out of the final year of any deal anyway. By extending, Doncic locks in that security a year early, which is always something players look to do. So, why wait to re-sign vs extending?

And, of course, if Doncic wanted to leave town, he’d be leaving a decent chunk of money on the table. That’s only happening if things really go wrong for him in Los Angeles. At that point, losing some money won’t be all that big of a concern.

Signing a shorter-term “Donovan Mitchell” Extension is what makes the most sense for Luka Doncic. Given that the Los Angeles Lakers have never balked at paying one of their own star players, that’s the best bet on how Doncic and the Lakers move forward. If we get to early-August, when Doncic will be eligible to extend, and we hear that he’s signed a three-year extension worth a projected $165 million, then things are set up for Doncic to really cash in with a five-year 35% of the cap max starting in 2028-29.

Keith SmithFebruary 03, 2025

Another day, another blockbuster deal in the NBA! The rumored deal of De’Aaron Fox to the San Antonio Spurs came to fruition, but with a twist that involved the Sacramento Kings getting Zach LaVine from the Chicago Bulls.

Here are the particulars:

San Antonio Spurs acquire: De’Aaron Fox, Jordan McLaughlin

Sacramento Kings acquire: Zach LaVine, Sidy Cissoko, 2025 Hornets top-14 protected first-round pick (via Spurs), 2027 Spurs first-round pick, 2031 Timberwolves first-round pick (via Spurs), 2025 Bulls second-round pick (via Spurs), 2028 Nuggets top-33 protected second-round pick (via Spurs), 2028 Kings second-round pick (via Bulls)

Chicago Bulls acquire: Zach Collins, Kevin Huerter, Tre Jones, 2025 Bulls first-round pick (via Spurs)

Let’s dive in!

San Antonio Spurs

Incoming salary: $36.9 million in 2024-25

  • De’Aaron Fox (PG, two years, $71.9 million),
  • Jordan McLaughlin (PG, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: $27.7 million in 2024-25

  • Zach Collins (C, two years, $34.8 million),
  • Tre Jones (PG, one year, $9.1 million),
  • Sidy Cissoko (SF/PF, two years, $4.1 million (final season fully non-guaranteed))

The San Antonio Spurs have been looking for a running mate for Victor Wembanyama since they drafted him. They have that guy now in De’Aaron Fox.

Fox reportedly really wanted to get to San Antonio, so this should be a match made in happiness for both the Spurs and Fox. The veteran point guard gives the team a floor leader who should be in place for years to come. Fox is likely to extend, possibly as soon as this summer. The supermax extension is no longer a possibility, but that was never overly likely to happen anyway. Fox will still get a 30% of the cap max, but the Spurs cap sheet can easily handle that.

In Fox, San Antonio has a guard who will push the pace. That should help the Spurs to take advantage of Wembanyama’s hyper-athletic game. You can already imagine the Fox-Wembanyama duo running the floor, with either one putting pressure on the rim in transition, as others space the floor around them.

There are questions remaining for the Spurs to answer. Will one or more from their large group of young players emerge to fill out the rotation around the two stars? If not, will San Antonio be able to trade them for a veteran who will? Can the front office manage the cap sheet to leave enough flexibility to build a strong roster around Wembanyama and Fox?

Those are all fair and important questions. They’re also more of a long-term thing. In the immediate, San Antonio could get involved in other deals, but that doesn’t seem likely. Yes, they now have both Fox and Chris Paul at point guard. That’s not something the Spurs see as an issue. They love what Paul has brought to their young roster. It’s unlikely he’s going anywhere, despite the overlap with Fox at the lead guard spot. There’s no urgency to make moves with the rest of the roster either. Getting Fox was the big move and it’s now complete. The next big moves will come in the offseason.

As for the price paid to get Fox, the Spurs did well there. By roping in the Chicago Bulls, San Antonio didn’t have to deliver all of the value to the Kings themselves. The Spurs moved on from Tre Jones (who had no place on the roster with Fox in the fold) and Zach Collins (who was carrying an undesirable contract). That means all of the kids (especially Stephon Castle) and the vets (especially Devin Vassell) with real value are still in pace for the rest of this season and into the summer.

Even the draft picks traded by San Antonio are a bit misleading. That 2025 Charlotte Hornets lottery-protected first-round pick? That’s going to be two second-rounders. The 2027 Spurs first should be in the mid- to late-20s, if things go as the should. The 2031 Minnesota Timberwolves first-rounder could be a good one, as we have no idea what they’ll be by then. Somewhat remarkably, the Spurs were able to complete this trade without even giving up their 2031 swap rights with the Kings. That’s potentially huge, given Sacramento’s history of being underwhelming.

Overall, this is a homerun trade for the Spurs. They landed their guy in Fox. Even if he’s a tier below superstar status, he’s still a great fit alongside Wembanyama for the next several seasons. Getting him without giving up all that much is a no-brainer for San Antonio.

Sacramento Kings

Incoming salary: $44.9 million in 2024-25

  • Zach LaVine (SG, three years, $137.9 million (player option for final season),
  • Sidy Cissoko (SF/PF, two years, $4.1 million (final season fully non-guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $53.7 million in 2024-25

  • De’Aaron Fox (PG, two years, $71.9 million),
  • Kevin Huerter (SG/SF, two years, 34.8 million),
  • Jordan McLaughlin (PG, one year, $2.1 million)

When you trade away your franchise player, it’s hard to get commensurate value in return. Either you get a package of picks and young players that resembles a mystery box. Or you get a bunch of middling salary and veterans in return. The Kings managed to land a really good player and some future assets for De’Aaron Fox, who was one of the team’s franchise players. That’s a win in what is regularly a no-win situation.

Zach LaVine is good. Actually, make that really, really good. He’s fully healthy again, with no signs of any lingering issues from his previous injuries. This has been LaVine’s best season. He’s putting up career-best numbers and has done well in the Chicago Bulls new up-tempo system.

Sacramento did well to land LaVine as the centerpiece in the return for Fox. The veteran scoring guard is a killer in the DHO/screen game with a big who can pass, and he’ll be paired with one of the best in Domantas Sabonis. LaVine is also a good passer himself, so you can run the offense with him as your primary creator.

The lack of a traditional point guard may look a bit weird for the Kings. However, LaVine, Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk are all guys you can run the offense through. This also clears a runway for rookie point guard Devin Carter, who has impressed since getting healthy, to see enough minutes.

On the cap sheet, LaVine is another max guy, which gives Sacramento two $40 million-plus players with him and Sabonis. But that’s a workable number. DeRozan has one year left at a fair salary, and Monk’s contract is a great value for the Kings. Given Fox was likely to command a max deal, having LaVine in that salary slot is just fine for the Kings.

Sacramento added some additional draft capital in this deal too. The 2025 Charlotte Hornets first-round pick isn’t going to convey, so write that in as two second-round picks. But adding two first-round picks and five second-round picks, plus LaVine, for a guy who didn’t want to be there is good work. And that 2031 Minnesota Timberwolves pick could be really juicy. The Wolves could be into a rebuild by then, even with Anthony Edwards in place as a young star.

Sidy Cissoko was also an interesting get for Sacramento. He’s still only 20 years old. Cissoko’s NBA experience is limited, but his G League profile is interesting. He’s a worthy flyer, as the Kings can stash him in Stockton and let him develop more in the G League.

Again, it’s hard to get a value return when trading a franchise player. This wasn’t quite a haul for Sacramento, but they did well. LaVine is a lot better than he gets credit for. And the Kings have a lot of optionality immediately and moving forward with how they build out their roster. That’s good work, considering they had to move on from Fox sooner, rather than later.

Chicago Bulls

Incoming salary: $42.7 million in 2024-25

  • Zach Collins (C, two years, $34.8 million)
  • Kevin Huerter (SG/SF, two years, 34.8 million)
  • Tre Jones (PG, one year, $9.1 million)

Outgoing salary: $43.0 million in 2024-25

  • Zach LaVine (SG, three years, $137.9 million (player option for final season)
  • Note: The Bulls also waived Torrey Craig ($2.8 million) and Chris Duarte ($5.9 million) to complete this trade

The Chicago Bulls have picked a direction…we think. At least, we hope!

By trading Zach LaVine for a collection of somewhat undesirable salaries, the Bulls should be leaning towards rebuilding. They seem to be headed that way, as every veteran on the roster is available in trade talks. That’s a good thing.

Unfortunately, that still doesn’t mean this was enough of a return for LaVine. Essentially, the Bulls provided a large chunk of the value to the Kings so that the Spurs didn’t have to. For a return of your own 2025 first-round pick unencumbered, that’s not enough.

Let’s talk about that pick for a moment…On face value, Chicago getting that pick back without the protected component, seems great. But here’s the thing: the Bulls should have been able to be bad enough to keep that pick anyway. There never really should have been all that much worry of losing it. For that to the primary return in trading away LaVine simply isn’t good enough.

Yes, Chicago got off considerable salary in this deal by moving LaVine. But Collins and Huerter combined are at over $36 million for next season. That’s not great. If either can find their game again in Chicago, then at least having them as individual movable salary has some value.

On the court, it’s hard to really evaluate much here. Kevin Huerter is theoretically a nice fit in the pace-and-space system that Billy Donovan is employing. He gives the Bulls a shooter with size that they don’t really have right now. Most of the Bulls best shooters are guard-sized players.

Zach Collins is a nice backup center. Assuming Nikola Vucevic is moved before the deadline, Collins can team with Jalen Smith to give Chicago 48 minutes of decent play at the five.

Tre Jones is a good backup point guard. The issue there is that Chicago already has so many point guards that Jones is just another body in the mix for right now. A trade moving out some of that depth is a must for the Bulls this week.

It feels like the start of something for the Bulls here. But if they don’t push this forward by moving a handful of other veterans, this will become the worst, directionless roster in the NBA. Chicago has to fully commit now to bottoming out.

They’ve already won too much this year to get in the Cooper Flagg derby, but they can still improve their pick a good amount. Mostly, this about picking a direction and going fully down Rebuild Road. You can’t drive halfway down there, change your mind and decide that’s good enough. But until they actually do it, there’s no way anyone will believe the Bulls will do anything more than going halfway, grabbing a burger for the road and heading back home to the middle.

Keith SmithFebruary 02, 2025

Wow…

Just wow.

In a stunning blockbuster, the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks swapped superstars, while the Utah Jazz stepped in as a facilitator.

Here are the particulars:

Los Angeles Lakers acquire: Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber, Markieff Morris

Dallas Mavericks acquire: Anthony Davis, Max Christie, 2029 Lakers first-round pick

Utah Jazz acquire: Jalen Hood-Schifino, 2025 TBD second-round pick (via Mavericks), 2025 Clippers second-round pick (via Lakers)

Let’s dive in!

Los Angeles Lakers

Incoming salary: $56.1 million in 2024-25

  • Luka Doncic (PG, three years, $137.9 million (player option for final season)),
  • Maxi Kleber (PF/C, two years, $22 million),
  • Markieff Morris (PF/C, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: $54.2 million in 2024-25

  • Anthony Davis (PF/C, four years, $218.6 million (player option for final season),
  • Max Christie (SG/SF, four years, $32 million (player option for final season),
  • Jalen Hood-Schifino (PG, one year, $3.9 million)

The Los Angeles Lakers have their post-LeBron James superstar in place. That’s what this trade was about.

James and Doncic are a bit of an odd pairing on the floor. Both are high-usage big ballhandlers. Neither is an elite off-ball player. But that’s something for JJ Redick to sort out over the coming weeks and months.

The defense will take a major hit for Los Angeles. Anthony Davis is still a one-man wrecking crew around the rim. Max Christie was the team’s best perimeter defender.

None of that really matters.

The Lakers got Luka Doncic.

Has Doncic been somewhat injury-prone recently? Are there conditioning issues with Doncic? Is he still immature in his relationships with officials?

Yes. Yes. And, yes.

Doncic is also a perennial MVP candidate. He also only turns 26 years old at the end of February. He’s an established global superstar.

You put up with all the questionable stuff because Doncic is that good. And he has been since he got to the NBA. Don’t overthink this. It’s Luka Doncic.

Moving forward, the Lakers now have the certainty of having a star in place when James eventually moves on. That’s true if James retires or decides he’d like to play elsewhere. (More on that last part in a bit.)

The other sneaky, but enormously important thing to note here: Los Angeles will get Doncic on a relative discount long-term too.

Doncic is no longer eligible to sign a Designated Veteran extension (the so-called supermax) for 35% of the cap. Players can only sign that kind of deal with the team that drafted them, or if they were acquired while still on their rookie scale deal.

That means when it’s time for the Lakers to extend or re-sign Doncic, they’ll get him for 30% of the cap. That’s a projected difference of roughly $8.5 million in first-year salary in 2026-27. That’s huge for Los Angeles, as they’ll be retooling the roster around Doncic at that time.

Speaking of retooling…Rob Pelinka still has work to do this season for the Lakers.

By trading Davis and Christie, the Lakers are severely lacking in defense now. Davis leaves a major hole at center. The only healthy non-two-way center on the roster now is Jaxson Hayes. He’s been fine as a backup, but he’s underwhelming as a starter.

Could Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris help there? Eh, probably not. Kleber is out with a broken foot and will be down for several more weeks. He’s also not really a center, as much as he is a pure four. At this point, Morris’ biggest contributions come in the locker room and in practice.

That means the Lakers need to get a center. The good news? They have the ammo to make that happen, and they can be flexible in the type of five they chase now.

Interior defense and rebounding are definitely concerns. Someone like Clint Capela, Nic Claxton, Robert Williams III, Jakob Poeltl or, yes, Walker Kessler can fill those needs. All are on acquirable contracts, which is key because the Lakers are still working around some tight margins with the aprons.

If the team’s read is that no center that they can acquire is fixing what looks like a leaky perimeter defense, they could go all-in on offense. That would open up the market for guys like Nikola Vucevic, Jonas Valanciunas or Deandre Ayton.

The player who can fill both the offensive and defensive needs best is Myles Turner, but there’s no sense the Pacers would move him for anything but a real haul.

Which brings us to the next question: What do the Lakers still have that they can offer? Picks-wise, Pelinka still has his 2031 first-round pick to offer up in deal. For players, the Lakers can send out Rui Hachimura and Gabe Vincent, who are a combined $28 million in potential salary-matching, even with each carrying one extra season beyond this one.

The Lakers should also be more open to moving Austin Reaves too. Doncic and Reaves are a terrific offensive combination, but that’s pretty rough duo defensively. It’s asking a lot of everyone else to cover for those two’s flaws on defense.

If Los Angeles is open to moving Reaves, that could up their return considerably. He’s a good player, despite the defensive issues, and Reaves would be another $12.9 million in outgoing salary.

To keep it simple: The Lakers don’t seem done rebuilding this roster. There is work to be done, both for the short- and long-term. It might be bumpy for a bit, because the Doncic-James fit isn’t exactly seamless, plus Los Angeles will likely be incorporating other new players too. But once they find their footing, the Lakers should be fine.

Now, let’s get to the elephant in the room: How does LeBron James feel about all of this?

James only public comments so far, in the immediate hours following the trade, were to dispute a report that he had grown weary of playing with Davis. James shot that down emphatically on social media.

But that shouldn’t be taken as more than anything but James not wanting others to put words in his mouth. There’s been nothing reported yet that he’s happy or upset about this deal. In the past, the Lakers superstar has spoken glowingly of Doncic. James also recruited Davis and won a title with him.

The reality is that the Lakers made this deal to prepare themselves for a post-LeBron James future. Could that come as soon as this week, before the trade deadline? That seems crazy, but this whole thing is crazy already. The Lakers and Golden State Warriors had at least some level of discussion on a trade that would have sent James to northern California a year ago. Could those be rekindled?

It’s important to note here that James has a full no-trade clause. If he’s dealt this week, or at any point, it’ll happen with his approval.

It’s also worth asking what James is going to do after this season. He’s in Year 22. James has talked openly about how the end is near. But only he knows how near it is. James has a player option for 2025-26. Could he opt out and go elsewhere? Could he simply retire and walk away?

The Los Angeles Lakers know their time with LeBron James is short, no matter if they don’t know just how short it is. They weren’t going to go without a superstar after James moves on. Now, with Luka Doncic in the fold, the Lakers have their next star already in the fold.

Dallas Mavericks

Incoming salary: $50.4 million in 2024-25

  • Anthony Davis (PF/C, four years, $218.6 million (player option for final season)
  • Max Christie (SG/SF, four years, $32 million (player option for final season)

Outgoing salary: $54.2 million in 2024-25

  • Luka Doncic (PG, three years, $137.9 million (player option for final season))
  • Maxi Kleber (PF/C, two years, $22 million)
  • Markieff Morris (PF/C, one year, $2.1 million)

The Mavericks are resetting on the fly. This isn’t a rebuilding trade, nor is it a panic trade. It’s a major gamble, but one that seems to align with their organizational belief on how you build a winner.

Dallas GM Nico Harrison said post-trade reports that he believes you win championships with defense.

Enter Anthony Davis.

Yes, Davis is roughly six years older than Luka Doncic. Yes, Davis is injury prone.

But he’s still an All-NBA level of talent and a one-man defensive system. Davis still has plenty left in tank, and he’s signed long-term.

In the immediate, Davis is a major upgrade for the Mavericks. Doncic hasn’t played for most of the season and Dallas is thin up front at the moment due to injuries. Davis will help them tremendously right away.

Expect the Mavs to fulfill Davis’ long-held desire to play power forward. In the short-term, Davis will likely start next to Daniel Gafford, with P.J. Washington becoming a high-minutes super sub behind them in the frontcourt rotation. When Dereck Lively II is healthy again, he and Davis will team up as the long-term frontcourt pairing in Dallas.

Davis is a fairly plug-and-play guy. He’s awesome defensively and he’s an offensive weapon, without being someone you need to tailor your entire system around. Davis and holdover Mavericks star Kyrie Irving have long talked about playing together. Now, they’ll get to do so in Dallas, of all places.

Cap-wise, acquiring Davis beings some surety to things for the Mavericks. Instead of paying Doncic a supermax (and Doncic would have gotten the supermax or things would have gotten very ugly in Dallas), now the team has Davis locked in for what is less than they were planning for in extending Doncic. It’s not a massive amount, but it’s locked in long-term security with some additional flexibility.

That’s important because Irving can be a free agent this summer. Assuming Irving is happy about the deal (as of this writing, nothing has been reported about how Irving feels), the Mavs can move forward with locking up Irving and Davis as their star duo. There’s a chance that pairing fits just as well as the Irving-Doncic duo did.

It’s worth noting that Davis is waiving his trade bonus to be a part of this deal. That’s important for two reasons: First, it gives the Mavs some much-needed flexibility, both now and moving forward. Second, it’s an indication that Davis is ok with the deal. If he wasn’t, he could have caused issues by insisting upon getting his bonus in full.

Dallas also acquired a 2029 first-round pick in this deal. It’s impossible to know what the Lakers will be four years from now. Even with Doncic in the fold, Los Angeles will be navigating a post-LeBron James world at that point. That range of outcomes for that pick is anywhere in the first round.

Stepping back into the present, the Mavericks had made it known they wanted to upgrade their perimeter defense ahead of the deadline. Max Christie is a major get in that respect. Christie is a solid defender on the wing. He’s also become a fairly consistent shooter too. No one is going to celebrate wildly about Christie being in this deal, but he’s on a terrific value contract and shouldn’t be overlooked. Dallas did well to add him.

All that being said…the Mavericks traded Luka Doncic.

Ouch.

Doncic is a full-blown superstar. Super-duper-star, even. With Doncic, you write him into your roster and game plans in pen, then you figure out the rest. Doncic is a yearly MVP candidate and he’s only turning 26 later this month.

Doncic was also the post-Dirk Nowtizki star in Dallas. He’s a global superstar who made the Mavericks relevant around the world. All of that is hard to move on from.

There’s a lot of spin coming out Dallas right now about Doncic. Concerns over his conditioning, commitment and a tendency to pick up injuries. Those reports also say Dallas was hesitant to give Doncic a supermax deal.

If true, then the Mavericks were right to move on. If you can’t commit to your superstar, you owe it to him and yourselves to make a trade.

But the question then becomes: Why not stage a bidding war?

Let’s start out by saying, this trade isn’t bad for Dallas. In a rush to declare winners and losers, we often turn it into good and bad. The Mavericks did fine here. Davis is a star in his own right. Christie is a nice role player on a great contract. And Dallas picked up a potentially valuable first-round pick.

But could they have gotten more?

How many picks would the Spurs have given up to pair Doncic with Victor Wembanyama? Could the Nets have given their entire haul to bring Doncic to Brooklyn? Would the Rockets have given up picks and young talent? What about the Jazz? Could the Thunder have shocked the world by emptying their draft pick treasure chest, while also adding in some young talent too?

We’ll never know. And that’s unfortunate, because players of Luka Doncic’s caliber, at his age, are rarely ever actually available.

Instead, the Mavericks worked in silence and to make a win-now play. Again, it’s not bad, per se. It’s just not the kind of overwhelming return we expect in a move like this.

But that’s kind of the thing. There’s no real playbook to work off of here. A super-duper-star getting moved when he’s still in his pre-prime (at worst early-prime) years is unheard of. It’s truly incredible.

Utah Jazz

Incoming salary: $3.9 million in 2024-25

  • Jalen Hood-Schifino (PG, one year, $3.9 million)

Outgoing salary: None

  • Note: The Jazz will have to waive a player to complete this trade. That player is TBD.

The Jazz have jumped in yet another trade to siphon off some value by acting as a facilitator. This trade doesn’t work without Hood-Schifino going somewhere, so Utah is lending a helping hand, while getting paid two second-round picks to do so.

Hood-Schifino is a decent flyer for Utah to take. He was a former mid-first-round pick. His impact in the NBA has been almost non-existent. Last season, Hood-Schifino played well in the G League in a limited number of games. There’s talent there, even if Hood-Schifino hasn’t figured it out yet.

Basically, Utah will get a look at the young guard when he’s healthy enough to play. The Jazz already have several other young ballhandlers, so Hood-Schifino is really just a flyer. But why not? Might as well take a look, considering that’s where the Jazz are at in the rebuilding process.

Utah will acquire Hood-Schifino using a part of their Room Exception. That’s fine, as the Jazz were never going to sign anyone of note using that exception anyway.

One last note on Hood-Schifino: Let’s say he pops and really plays well for Utah. The Jazz will be limited in what they can re-sign him for. Because the Lakers declined their 2025-26 team option for Hood-Schifino, the Jazz are limited to offering him the amount of that declined option in first-year salary. That’s just over $4 million, so that shouldn’t be any kind of major impediment, should Utah want to re-sign Hood-Schifino as a free agent this summer.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 01, 2025

The LA Clippers have been searching for a way to add some frontcourt depth. The Clippers have also been looking for a way to drop under the luxury tax. In one move, LA took care of both of those desires.

Here are the particulars:

LA Clippers acquire: Drew Eubanks, Patty Mills

Utah Jazz acquire: Mo Bamba, P.J. Tucker, future second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

LA Clippers

Incoming salary: $7.1 million in 2024-25

  • Drew Eubanks (C, two years, $9.8 million (2025-26 is non-guaranteed)), Patty Mills (PG, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: $13.6 million in 2024-25

  • Mo Bamba (C, one year, $2.1 million), P.J. Tucker (PF, one-year, $11.5 million)

The Clippers have been trying to find a way to add to their frontcourt. They did that with Drew Eubanks. He’s a different player from Mo Bamba, but Eubanks is a better fit for what LA needs.

Eubanks plays solely around the rim on offense. He’s a play-finisher, in addition to being a solid screener. Eubanks should fit in well with James Harden in the pick-and-roll game when he’s in the game backing up Ivica Zubac.

On defense, Eubanks is more rugged than Bamba. He’s physical on the interior, a good rebounder and a solid rim protector. Eubanks also stays engaged all the way through the possession, while Bamba still has tendency to wander.

On the cap sheet, Eubanks’ deal is non-guaranteed at $4.75 million for 2025-26. If he’s not working out, the Clippers can move on with relative ease. That’s some nice flexibility.

The second upgrade for LA is getting out of the luxury tax. The Clippers will drop about $4.1 million under the tax and over $11 million under their first-apron hard cap. That gives the front office more than enough wiggle room to make an additional move. It also relieves any of the burdens that come with being a tax team, as far as salary-matching goes in trades.

Keep an eye on another frontcourt addition, possibly with Terance Mann (who has lost a lot of minutes as LA has gotten healthier on the wing) as the outgoing salary. Bones Hyland is very available in trades, as well. The Clippers are going to stay active in trade talks right up to the deadline.

Patty Mills’ fate in LA probably won’t be known until after the deadline. The Clippers would like to free up a roster spot to convert Jordan Miller from his two-way contract. In addition, LA wouldn’t mind having a spot to convert Kai Jones too. If the Clippers need a roster spot, Mills (and Hyland if he’s not traded) could be the roster casualty.

The Clippers only had a couple of second-round picks to trade, so this should bring them down to just one second rounder left. More importantly in the immediate, as they’ve now dipped under the tax and well under the apron, LA has no restrictions on the buyout market. The Clippers have $3.3 million left of the Non-Taxpayer MLE, which is a nice chunk to offer a player to sign on for the stretch run.

Finally, LA created a potentially handy $6.5 million traded player exception in this one. That’s big enough to be useful, either at the deadline or in the offseason.

Utah Jazz

Incoming salary: $13.6 million in 2024-25

  • Mo Bamba (C, one year, $2.1 million), P.J. Tucker (PF, one-year, $11.5 million)

Outgoing salary: $7.1 million in 2024-25

  • Drew Eubanks (C, two years, $9.8 million (2025-26 is non-guaranteed)), Patty Mills (PG, one year, $2.1 million)

The Jazz are miles under the luxury tax line, so this is about using that flexibility to add another asset, while taking a rest-of-season flyer on Mo Bamba. Essentially, Utah bought a future second-round pick for taking on the difference between Drew Eubanks’ and P.J. Tucker’s in salary.

On-court, Bamba should play for the Jazz. They’ve been cycling through frontcourt players all season long. Utah can take a look at Bamba and see what they have over the final 30-plus games. Eubanks was playing a lot, but he wasn’t likely a big part of the future in Utah. The Jazz were going to evaluate Eubanks and his $4.75 million non-guaranteed contract for 2025-26 against the need for a roster spot in the offseason.

P.J. Tucker likely won’t even be required to report to Utah. He’s a contract only for the Jazz. Look for Danny Ainge and Justin Zanik to keep Tucker on the roster through the deadline. If they can re-trade his contract in a deal, they will. If not, Tucker will be waived to open up a roster spot.

That open roster spot could be used to take a look at different players on 10 Day contracts. The Jazz may also look to convert Micah Potter to a standard deal. He’s played well in his opportunities this season and Utah might want to lock him up on a team-friendly deal. Elijah Harkless is another potential conversion candidate for the Jazz too.

This is Utah continuing their process of eating contracts in exchange for draft capital. They’ve facilitated several of these deals over the last couple of seasons, including eating Russell Westbrook’s contract on two different occasions. It’s solid work, given the team is so far under the tax line.

The Jazz probably aren’t done dealing. John Collins, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton are all very available in the right moves. Utah won’t give any of them away, but if they find the right trades, any of those veterans could be a part of the continued roster shuffling.

 

Keith SmithJanuary 29, 2025

We’re just over a week out from the NBA trade deadline on February 6. Like the past couple of seasons, NBA teams are falling into defined tiers this year. However, those tiers are a little different from the traditional ones of title contender, playoff team and tanking team.

What the Play-In Tournament has done is create a handful of different races. There are a handful of teams in each conference that are still competing for the top seed. But from there, we have a couple of other races to watch. Teams compete for homecourt advantage, but are also competing to simply be in the top-six in their conference to snag one of the assured playoff spots.

After the contenders, several teams are fighting for positioning, or even just spots, in the Play-In Tournament in each conference. (This season, this is truer of the Western Conference than the Eastern Conference.) And then, of course, you have teams that are prioritizing ping-pong balls, if we put it kindly.

That makes each team’s approach to the trade deadline endlessly more fascinating. Today, we’ll cover where each team seems to stand as far as being a buyer or seller, or either or neither, at the deadline. We’ll also give some thoughts on where we think each team should be at.

You can find the Eastern Conference teams here.

Dallas Mavericks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Mavericks are looking for perimeter defensive help. In addition, with recent frontcourt injuries, Dallas would like to add a big. The challenge is that Nico Harrison isn’t sitting on a whole lot of tradable salary, and the Mavs are working under tight margins against a first-apron hard cap.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Dallas should look for upgrades, but they need to be careful. If you can do a get-by move or two, by all means do so. But investing real assets - when these might be short-term fixes - isn’t the play.

Denver Nuggets

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Denver is looking for rotation help. They like their top six-to-eight rotation. Beyond that, Calvin Booth is seeing what he can get. It doesn’t seem like a major move for a guy like Zach LaVine will be an in-season thing. That means shopping Zeke Nnaji and Dario Saric for a rotation upgrade.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

It makes sense for the Nuggets to be looking for upgrades. Another big would be nice. Relying on DeAndre Jordan this much behind Nikola Jokic is a little worrisome. Maybe one more guard to put in the mix would be helpful too. If they’re willing to move a draft pick, that Nnaji/Saric combo could get them a nice upgrade.

Golden State Warriors

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

This was very close to being a “Neither”. The Warriors are open to making moves, but they are insistent that they don’t want to move a lot of future assets, be it players or draft picks. That’s going to limit what they can do.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Warriors should be buying. Yes, this team has issues. There’s no ignoring that. But they still have a chance with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. They don’t need to get silly, but they could make upgrades without giving up everything. They should be pursuing them.

Houston Rockets

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Houston seems to be honest in their commitment to seeing this season through. It’s not the worst idea. They’ve been really good. If the right deal was there (De’Aaron Fox?) maybe their minds will be changed. But Rafael Stone has held firm thus far that the big moves are coming this summer and beyond.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Rockets are really good. Maybe even a player (and some postseason luck) away from making a real playoff run. The future is never guaranteed. Houston doesn’t need to be reckless and trade away guys from the young core. But they could make moves without doing that. It’s worth considering bolstering this team for now and tomorrow.

LA Clippers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Clippers are looking for rotation upgrades. They aren’t likely to get involved in any blockbuster deals, but they’ve got plenty of tradable salary to add to their group. The primary focus is on adding frontcourt help.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

If there is a deal to send Tucker somewhere and bring back a ready-to-play 4/5, the Clippers should do it. (Yes, that was a copy-paste from last year!) Terance Mann has also been on the fringes of the rotation. He could be available too.

Los Angeles Lakers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Los Angeles already made one move to add Dorian Finney-Smith, but they’re still looking. Another ballhandler and perimeter scoring is on the list. Anthony Davis wants another big, and the Lakers are looking at those options too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

When you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing this well, you owe it to them and yourselves to make your roster better. (Hey! Another copy-paste!) The Lakers are doing so. They’re going to keep searching. However, unless Rob Pelinka is suddenly willing to trade both of the future picks they can move, it won’t be the superstar deal many fans are looking for.

Memphis Grizzlies

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Memphis is trying to find some upgrades for their rotation. They’d like to add another shooter to their mix, ideally one with some size and versatility. That’s why they were in on Dorian Finney-Smith and have been in on Cam Johnson.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Thankfully, the Grizzlies have been less precious with their own drafted and developed players in the last year or so. That puts them in position to do something. This team is really, really close to title contention. Hitting on the right guy could put them over the top for the next few years.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Approach at the deadline: Neither

As a second-apron team, Minnesota doesn’t have the flexibility to do a whole lot. Unless they are moving Julius Randle, there’s just not much here. Expect the Wolves to poke around for vets who can be acquired using the Minimum Exception, but they can’t do much else.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

This one is one the Timberwolves probably need to wait until the offseason to reset. The challenges of working around the second apron are simply too restrictive. If they can find a deal for Julius Randle that rebalances and upgrades the rotation, that’s worth considering. But that doesn’t seem very likely.

New Orleans Pelicans

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Pelicans are looking for deals for Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum. They seem to open to listening to offers for Zion Williamson, but don’t really want to move him. And if a team wants Javonte Green or Daniel Theis, all they need to do is call. Everyone else is sticking around.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

At the very least, New Orleans is going to get out of the tax by shedding Javonte Green or Daniel Theis, or both. The Pels might move Ingram. They’re still trying. C.J. McCollum might need to wait until the offseason, but teams do get desperate for guard help at the deadline. Zion Williamson? Nah. Let’s see what the rest of the season looks like and cross that bridge this summer, if necessary.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Thunder are looking. There’s nothing huge coming though. They tried that last year with Gordon Hayward and it failed. That hasn’t scared OKC off trying to do anything else, but they don’t need a whole lot. Adding another perimeter on-ball playmaker seems to be the goal.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Oklahoma City has what they need to win the Finals. They’ve been the best team in the league this season. But that doesn’t mean they can’t bolster their rotation with a move. And, we all know they have the draft-pick capital to do whatever they want.

Phoenix Suns

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Outside of Jimmy Butler, the Suns are looking to see what they can do. They’re actively shopping Jusuf Nurkic for perimeter help. The Suns made the draft pick swap with the Jazz to have some assets to move right now.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Without getting deep into it, a Butler deal has to involve finding Bradley Beal an acceptable home. If that can’t happen, Phoenix should try to turn Jusuf Nurkic’s contract into a couple of helpful players, even if that means moving one or two the recently acquired first-round picks.

Portland Trail Blazers

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Portland is listening on a number of veterans. They’re open to moving Robert Williams III, Deandre Ayton, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and Matisse Thybulle. Williams and Thybulle seem to be drawing the most interest, but offers are reflecting their susceptibility for injury.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Trail Blazers should be moving their vets. It’s not quite “Everything must go!” time, but we’re not too far off that. The veteran players the Blazers have aren’t likely to see their trade value increase as time goes along. Now is the time to move some of these guys while Portland can still get a positive return.

Sacramento Kings

Approach at the deadline: Either

The De’Aaron Fox trade availability/desires threw a monkey wrench to the entire NBA. A whole new star is now available. The big question, beyond where Fox is going, is: What is the plan in Sacramento? Are they tearing things down? Are the Kings flipping Fox for win-now players? That will get answered in coming days.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

Sacramento needs to be honest with themselves here, and through the offseason. This group broke the playoff drought and has stagnated since. Are shuffling pieces enough to reset things and keep the Kings in playoff contention? Or is it time to rebuild? The first is hard to pull off, and rare to see succeed. The latter could set up Sacramento with assets for years to come. It’s worth at least listening to offers for the stars beyond De’Aaron Fox to see what the returns could be.

San Antonio Spurs

Approach at the deadline: Neither*

We put in the “*” because the Spurs could jump on a De’Aaron Fox trade before the deadline. He seems to want that, and it makes sense for San Antonio too. If it’s not a Fox addition, then the Spurs will probably just sit things out. They’re progressing along just fine. No reason to get crazy for minor upgrades now.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers*

Yeah, another “*”. This one is because the Spurs should go get De’Aaron Fox if the asking price is reasonable. San Antonio has some extra draft picks that look promising. They have young players, and some vet role players, they can send to Sacramento. Pairing Fox and Victor Wembanyama makes a lot of sense. It’s worth exploring, before Fox lands somewhere else and the Spurs are still looking for the point guard of the future.

Utah Jazz

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

This is the most obvious seller situation outside of maybe Portland. If you’ve been in the league longer than a few years and you aren’t Lauri Markkanen, the Jazz are open to moving you. John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton and Drew Eubanks are all available. Walker Kessler is “available”, but only if you make a monster offer. So, good luck there.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

It makes no sense to hang onto John Collins and Jordan Clarkson for Utah. The Jazz don’t have to make a bad deal, and they won’t, but both of those vets should get moved. Collin Sexton is a nice fit, and on a pretty good deal, so keeping him as the team rebuilds would be fine. But if the right offer comes, Sexton could move too. If someone gets silly with an offer for Walker Kessler, that’s worth exploring too. The Jazz are going to be active and will probably make at least a couple of moves by the deadline.

 

Keith SmithJanuary 27, 2025

We’re just over a week out from the NBA trade deadline on February 6. Like the past couple of seasons, NBA teams are falling into defined tiers this year. However, those tiers are a little different from the traditional ones of title contender, playoff team and tanking team.

What the Play-In Tournament has done is create a handful of different races. There are a handful of teams in each conference that are still competing for the top seed. But from there, we have a couple of other races to watch. Teams compete for homecourt advantage, but are also competing to simply be in the top-six in their conference to snag one of the assured playoff spots.

After the contenders, several teams are fighting for positioning, or even just spots, in the Play-In Tournament in each conference. (This season, this is truer of the Western Conference than the Eastern Conference.) And then, of course, you have teams that are prioritizing ping-pong balls, if we put it kindly.

That makes each team’s approach to the trade deadline endlessly more fascinating. Today, we’ll cover where each team seems to stand as far as being a buyer or seller, or either or neither, at the deadline. We’ll also give some thoughts on where we think each team should be at.

Atlanta Hawks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Let’s call the Hawks cautious buyers. Atlanta doesn’t have a lot of room under the tax to add salary. They aren’t good enough to go into the tax yet, so that limits what they can do. They’re looking for upgrades, but nothing major seems on the horizon.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

Atlanta shouldn’t be making any all-in moves, nor should they be trading any young core players. But if someone wants to make a run at Clint Capela or Larry Nance Jr., the Hawks should listen. This could be a way to continue rebalancing the cap sheet, while adding talent to keep Atlanta in the playoff race.

Boston Celtics

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Boston doesn’t have the tradable salary to do anything all that meaningful at the deadline. Their top-nine playoff guys are also fairly set too. They’re always looking around, but nothing seems imminent here.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

Despite a blah last month or so, the Celtics are still the champs. Everything is set up to make another title run. There are no major needs. They’ll probably move Jaden Springer’s expiring salary to kick the can down the road with another guy who has a year or left, but don’t expect much more. Mostly, Boston will just keep things moving along.

Brooklyn Nets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Nets have already started this process, but there’s more to come. Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton, D’Angelo Russell, Bojan Bogdanovic and…well…just about anyone can be had for the right price.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Brooklyn hasn’t landed on their next franchise guy yet. They’ve got a few interesting young guys, but none of them screams out as the guy who will lead several years of playoff runs. That’ll come through the draft. Maximize assets over the next few years is the way forward for the Nets.

Charlotte Hornets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Charlotte already moved Nick Richards, and he was their best trade asset. They might be able to get something for Cody Martin, as more and more teams are looking for perimeter help. But the Hornets are looking at smaller deals now.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Could Jeff Peterson jump in and help as a facilitator again? It’s possible. If they Hornets can snag some more additional assets to help move some money around, they’ll probably do it. The reality is that there just isn’t a lot of tradable salary left here. The bigger deals belong to the guys who Charlotte is building around. This should be a quiet deadline.

Chicago Bulls

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Bulls are sellers. Wait…really? It appears so. They are still open to moving Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic in the right deal. Patrick Williams is still very available. Basically, anyone but Matas Buzelis, and possibly Josh Giddey, shouldn’t be investing in long-term real estate in Chicago.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Bulls should be selling. No doubt about it. They might not get monster returns for LaVine or Vucevic, but if they could take on some undesirable money to plus-up the return packages, Chicago should be open to that. It’s been years since they’ve leaned fully into rebuilding, but it’s beyond time to pull the plug on this iteration. Mercifully, it seems that process is finally beginning.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Cleveland is poking around and looking for help. They aren’t touching the core, but the guys who orbit around them can be had in return for upgrades. The Cavaliers are looking for perimeter help and wouldn’t mind adding a versatile backup big too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Cavs have the movable salary to get something done. Ideally, they’d make a move or two to add talent, while also getting out of the tax. Cleveland projects to be very expensive for years to come. No reason to start that clock any earlier than necessary.

Detroit Pistons

Approach at the deadline: Either

This Pistons are operating with an air of mystery right now. Their very good play has them looking for some upgrades. Their $14 million in cap space has them open to eating some salary. If there’s a way to do both, Tajan Langdon will jump on it.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Detroit hasn’t won a single playoff game (game, not series) since 2008. Young Pistons fans could complete their entire run of K-12 schooling without seeing a single playoff win. Langdon has the ability to add help and should be active. It doesn’t have to be a crazy, sell-the-farm kind of deal. But this group has earned an upgrade or two to aid in the postseason push.

Indiana Pacers

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Indiana is in a good place. They don’t really need a whole lot, beyond staying healthy. The Pacers have stayed focused on the players they have. Myles Turner rumors abound (wouldn’t be a deadline without them!), but that seems to be more speculation that reality at this point.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

If there’s a deal that comes up that can allow Indiana to get off a long-term salary for a fringe rotation guy (they don’t have any bad salary), they should be on it. The Pacers project to hit next summer without much room under the luxury tax. If they are going to re-sign Myles Turner, they need to clear some room eventually, as they aren’t likely to play the tax. Now, if they aren’t going to re-sign Turner, then they should probably think about moving him by the deadline. But that’s not the direction this will probably take.

Miami Heat

Approach at the deadline: Either

The Heat are trying to find Jimmy Butler trade that brings back win-now talent, but no long-term salary. That’s a tricky needle to thread, but maybe they can pull it off. Until Butler’s situation is settled, and possibly after, don’t expect much else from Miami.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

Miami is progressing along as they should be. There’s no reason to rush a Butler trade and take back a less-than-desirable return. See that through, play out the rest of the season, then pick up the pieces this summer for the long-term.

Milwaukee Bucks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Bucks are always active and there’s nothing different happening at this deadline. Milwaukee is looking for more scoring help, and they’ve got some tradable salary to make it happen. They’ll have to dance around the second apron, but it’s doable with a salary-shedding more or two.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Milwaukee is doing the right thing. They should be trying to maximize the time they have with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard playing at superstar levels. That might mean saying goodbye to some key franchise guys, but reunions down the line are made for showing love for the past. If you want to compete for another title, moves have to be made.

New York Knicks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

New York is looking for some help. They’d like a more reliable backup for Karl-Anthony Towns. They’d also like a bigger perimeter defender too. The issue is that their draft capital is just about spent, and the Knicks only sizable matching salary belongs to oft-injured Mitchell Robinson.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

I’m calling the Knicks bargain shoppers. They don’t have much wiggle room under the second apron. That means a small move, or moving Robinson. I wouldn’t rule out either one, but not sure whatever they do is going to get folks all that fired up in New York.

Orlando Magic

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Magic are best termed as cautious buyers…again. Forever and always, it seems. Orlando can use help. They desperately need more shooting. But whatever vortex players pass through when they land in the Magic Kingdom seems to sap even good shooters of that particular ability. Still, the Magic are looking to see what they can do. Just don’t expect to hear a lot in advance. Jeff Weltman and crew keep things pretty quiet.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Orlando should be looking to buy. There’s no question about it. The team is mostly healthy again and they still need shooting. The target for the Magic needs to be a shooter who fits now and over the next few years. They’ve got the tradable salary and draft picks to make it happen. A deal now could be the difference between a first round win and going home after one series.

Philadelphia 76ers

Approach at the deadline: Either

This is a mess. It’s hard to predict what the Sixers will do, because they don’t even really seem to know what their season will hold. News came out last week that ownership would like to take a few weeks to evaluate the team, but that’s after the deadline. A top-six protected pick doesn’t actually seem to be a real factor. So, look for maybe a move or two to bolster the rotation until the stars can get on the court more often.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

This doesn’t mean Philadelphia needs to move any of the three stars. Those guys can stay, unless someone gets really, really silly with an offer for Paul George (not happening). But moving role players should be on the table. Even if the 76ers aren’t going to start tanking, they can still get some future assets to help build these team back up again this coming offseason.

Toronto Raptors

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Raptors are still rebuilding and figuring things out. Bruce Brown and Kelly Olynyk are available. Chris Boucher might be available. Most of the young players are off the table, as those are the guys Toronto is building around.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Toronto is staying on the path they set ahead of last trade deadline. Their solid play as of late is fun, and bodes well for the future, but this team is playing for a high draft pick and a potential star to add to their young core. They should listen more on Jakob Poeltl than it seems like they will, but they don’t have to give him away either.

Washington Wizards

Approach at the deadline: Sellers. The worst team in the league is shopping their veterans. This is a full-scale teardown happening exactly as planned. Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon, Jonas Valanciunas and Jordan Poole can all be had for a decent return package. If you throw in better assets, Washington will eat some bad long-term salary too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers. Everything the Wizards are doing is super ugly, and they are 100% correct in the path they’ve chosen. The kids are playing plenty and the team is zooming towards top lottery position. If they can get a nice return for any of the vets, they should do so. Keep an eye on Richaun Holmes too. His contract was designed to be traded, and something might happen there to help another team move some money around.

 

Keith SmithJanuary 22, 2025

The 2025 NBA trade deadline is about two weeks away.  The early trade season has been pretty active this year. We haven’t had any true blockbusters yet, but we’re already at six trades. That’s a lot compared to previous years.

Two weeks or so out from deadline day is when things usually start to pick up. Teams that insisted on multiple first-round picks for their players come down to a single first-round pick, while their partners in trades come up from offering a couple of second-rounders to offering that single first-rounder. As desperation increases, so does reasonability in trade talks.

Here’s what each of the 30 NBA teams are working with to trade as we sit a month from the deadline.

Atlanta Hawks

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.3 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $25.3 million (Dejounte Murray), $10.6 million (remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Hawks owe two future firsts (2025 and 2027) to the Spurs, as well as a swap in 2026. Atlanta is owed an unprotected 2025 first-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers. The Hawks also have a top-12 protected pick 2025 pick from Sacramento, which could come this year or next. Atlanta has their first-round picks from 2028 through 2031.

Hawks have at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cody Zeller. It would have been juicy to pick Clint Capela here, but Atlanta seems likely to operate fairly conservatively at this deadline. That means Zeller is the choice, who was acquired this past offseason to make salary-matching work in the Dejounte Murray trade. Trade or waiver, Zeller probably won’t be on the Hawks much past the deadline.

Boston Celtics

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.6 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Boston owes a 2029 first to Portland. They also have a top-1 protected swap with the Spurs in 2028.

The Celtics have at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jaden Springer. Look for Boston to move Jaden Springer in a similar move to the one they made to acquire him last year. They’ll trade him for team-controlled salary that extends into 2025-26.

Brooklyn Nets

Cap/Tax Picture: $677,263 under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $23.3 million (Mikal Bridges), $3.4 million (Royce O’Neale), $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Nets draft pick situation is a bit confusing. They have their own picks back in 2025 and 2026. That’s the key thing to know. Brooklyn is highly unlikely to trade any of the first-round picks they own, as they are rebuilding.

The Nets have at least 16 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cam Johnson. We’re picking Johnson here, because that would be the biggest impact move. But every player on the Nets roster is available in the right deal. They haven’t landed on their next franchise guy yet.

Charlotte Hornets

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.5 million (Grant Williams – Disabled Player Exception: Can only be used to acquire an expiring contract)

Draft Pick Situation: Hornets owe a protected 2025 first-rounder to the Spurs (last year being lottery-protected before coming two second-round picks), but own all the rest of their own first-round picks. Charlotte has extra picks, with protections, coming from Dallas and Miami too.

The Hornets have at least 13 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Seth Curry. Because Nick Richards was recently traded, there aren’t many veterans left that the Hornets should be looking to move. If a team wants to add to the second-round pick stash to add some shooting in the form of Curry, Charlotte will happily make that move.

Chicago Bulls

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $17.5 million (DeMar DeRozan)

Draft Pick Situation: Bulls owe a protected first-round pick to San Antonio in the coming years. Chicago doesn’t have a fully clear first-rounder until 2028. From there, the Bulls have all of their own first-round picks through 2031. Chicago has a lottery-protected first owed to them from the Trail Blazers, with those same protections through 2028.

The Bulls have three tradable second-round pick, as others all have conditions attached.

Most Likely to be Traded: Who knows? The Bulls have been shopping Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic for a while now without making a deal. Patrick Williams is on the block. Teams have shown interest in Lonzo Ball. There are a number of players on veteran minimum deals that could be moved. Without being overly sarcastic: We’re all still waiting on Chicago to do something, and that wait has lasted a couple or already.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.9M under the first apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Cleveland owes three future first-round picks to the Jazz, as well as two years of swap rights to Utah. The first tradable first-round pick the Cavs have is in 2031.

The Cavs have eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. There isn’t a great choice here. Cleveland will probably make a move to dodge the tax (as an expensive team in the coming years, not starting the repeater clock is important for the Cavs), but it might come as part of a bigger move. Caris LeVert is on a $16.6 million expiring contract, but he’s the Cavs third ballhandler most nights. The Cavaliers will do something, but it’s hard to peg what that will be.

Dallas Mavericks

Cap/Tax Picture: $526,220 under the first apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $16.2 million (Tim Hardaway Jr.), $4.0 million (Seth Curry)

Draft Pick Situation: Dallas owes a top-two protected 2027 first-round pick to the Charlotte Hornets. The Mavericks also owe a 2029 first-rounder to the Nets or Rockets, and first-round swaps in 2027 (Thunder) and 2030 (Spurs). That leaves the Mavs pick in 2025 as their only free and clear tradable first-round pick.

Dallas has one tradable second-round pick.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dante Exum. The Mavs don’t have any large expiring contracts They also aren’t a small salary-dump within range of getting out of the tax. Expect Dallas to be active, as Nico Harrison’s history shows he will be, but there’s no clear standout move here.

Denver Nuggets

Cap/Tax Picture: $5.2 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $5.3 million (Reggie Jackson)

Draft Pick Situation: Denver owes future first-round picks to Orlando and Oklahoma City. They won’t be able to realistically trade a first-round pick at this deadline.

The Nuggets don’t have any tradable second-round picks. All of their second-round picks have conditions attached, or were already traded outright.

Most Likely to be Traded: Zeke Nnaji. You could also put Dario Saric here, but a trade of Nnaji would get the Nuggets off $3.7 million more in salary, plus addition salary too. Whether that move is to create clearance under the apron to free up trade flexibility, or a straight salary dump to lessen the tax bill in the real question.

Detroit Pistons

Cap/Tax Picture: $14.0 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $7.9 million (Room Exception – would only be used after using cap space)

Draft Pick Situation: Detroit owes a top-13 protected first-round pick to Minnesota. That pick may actually convey, given the team’s surprising postseason push. All of the Detroit’s other first-round picks are free and clear from 2028 to 2031.

The Pistons have at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Tim Hardaway Jr. The real answer here is the Pistons $14 million in cap space. They’re going to use most, if not all, of that before the deadline. If they go for a bigger move, Hardaway’s expiring $16.2 million salary seems likely to be added to that cap space to make it happen.

Golden State Warriors

Cap/Tax Picture: $330,409 under the first apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Golden State owes Washington a top-20 protected first-round pick in 2030. The Warriors own all of their other first-round picks.

The Warriors have two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dennis Schroder. The Warriors don’t seem inclined to make the kind of big move that would necessitate putting Jonathan Kuminga or Brandin Podziemski in a deal, along with Andrew Wiggins for salary-matching purposes. Gary Payton II and Kevon Looney have meant too much to just be dumped as expiring salary. So, that leaves Dennis Schroder, who hasn’t been exactly the fit that Golden State hoped for.

Houston Rockets

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Houston’s first-round pick situation is somewhat messy. They have a couple of picks/swaps that are controlled by Oklahoma City. On the incoming side, the Rockets own their own firsts (or favorable swap rights) from 2028 through 2031. And they have an extra couple of picks coming their way from the Suns or Mavericks.

The Rockets have at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Steven Adams, Jeff Green, Jock Landale or Jae’Sean Tate. All four veteran frontcourt players are on expiring (or non-guaranteed) contracts. That makes all of them trade chips if Houston looks for a small rotation upgrade up front. The Rockets continue to insist that a trade for a superstar isn’t in the cards at this deadline.

Indiana Pacers

Cap/Tax Picture: $126,514 under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Pacers owe the Raptors a top-four protected pick in 2026 or 2027. Beyond that, they own all of their own first-round picks.

Indiana has at least eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: James Johnson or James Wiseman. Indiana seems pretty well set with their roster. They’d probably like some additional clearance under the luxury tax, but could just ride things out as is and barely dodge the tax line. If they want the clearance, look for Johnson or Wiseman to be the sacrifice.

LA Clippers

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.8 under the first apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.3 million (remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Clippers still owe a 2026 first-round pick to the Thunder (or 76ers) and then a 2028 first-round pick outright to the 76ers. LA also owes swap rights to OKC in 2025 and 2027 and top-three protected 2029 swap right to the Philadelphia. The Clippers only outright tradable first-round pick comes in 2031.

LA has two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: P.J. Tucker. The Clippers haven’t used Tucker as a rotation player since he came over in the James Harden trade. If they make a deal to further fortify their rotation, he’s likely to be involved. Otherwise, Tucker will be waived following the trade deadline to open a roster spot.

Los Angeles Lakers

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.5 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Los Angeles owes Atlanta their 2025 first-round pick. They also owe a top-four protected 2027 first-round pick to Utah. Beyond that, the Lakers own all of their own first-round picks.

The Lakers have two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Rui Hachimura. This one is about salary size. If the Lakers are making another significant move, it’s likely that Hachimura’s $17 million salary will be involved.

Memphis Grizzlies

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.8 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.6 million (Steven Adams), $6.1 million (Ziaire Williams), $8.6 million (remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Grizzlies have all of their own first-round picks, including favorable swap rights on two picks in 2026 and 2030.

Memphis has five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Luke Kennard or John Konchar. Same as it was last year. Either Kennard or Konchar (or both!) will likely be involved if the Grizzlies make a move to consolidate their rotation some.

Miami Heat

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.0 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.5 million (Kyle Lowry)

Draft Pick Situation: The Heat’s first-round draft pick situation is fascinating. Miami owes a lottery-protected pick to Oklahoma City in 2025. That pick becomes unprotected in 2026 if it doesn’t convey this year. That would wipe out the lottery-protected pick that Miami owes Charlotte in 2027. That would then make that pick unprotected in 2028. The Heat own their 2029 through 2031 first-round picks with no conditions attached.

Miami has three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jimmy Butler. Who else were we going to pick? 

Milwaukee Bucks

Cap/Tax Picture: $6.5 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Bucks don’t own any of their own first-round picks outright until 2031. Every other pick is either owed to another team or tied up in least-favorable swap rights.

Milwaukee has one tradable second-round pick.

Most Likely to be Traded: Pat Connaughton. If the Bucks want to get under the second apron, it’s very likely Connaughton will be in the deal. That will come either with Connaughton by himself to free Milwaukee of the burdensome second-apron restriction, or as part of a bigger deal where the Bucks finish under the second apron.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Cap/Tax Picture: $16.1 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Minnesota owes Utah three future first-round picks (and one swap), only one of which is lightly protected. The Wolves also owe a top-1 protected swap to the Spurs in 2030 and their pick outright to San Antonio in 2031. That all means they can’t trade a first-round pick directly.

The Timberwolves have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. The Wolves don’t have a lot of tradable salary that isn’t attached to rotation players. There’s also not a deal worth doing that will really lessen their tax burden enough.

New Orleans Pelicans

Cap/Tax Picture: $2.1 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.9 million (Jonas Valanciunas), $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans own all of their own first-round picks. They also have favorable swap rights in both 2026 and 2027.

New Orleans has two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Javonte Green or Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Both players are on veteran minimum deals, which makes them easy to trade to just about anywhere. If the Pelicans feel Dejounte Murray will miss out on currently likely bonuses, then they are one small move from dodging the luxury tax. Given they’ve never paid it, a trade to avoid the tax is as good of a bet to happen as any in the NBA.

New York Knicks

Cap/Tax Picture: $535,302 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Unlike a year ago, the Knicks have traded most of their first-round draft capital now. They have one extra first-round pick potentially coming from the Wizards in 2026 (it won’t convey this year). Besides that, New York can offer 2026 and 2030 first-round swap rights in deals.

The Knicks have eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Mitchell Robinson or Jericho Sims. If the Knicks make a move for a rotation upgrade, it will definitely include Robinson getting moved. If it's a minor move for depth, Sims may be the guy on the move.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.4 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $7.9 million (Room Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: Oklahoma City has between 10 and 14 first-round picks, pending protected picks. They have all of their own, including favorable swap rights in several years.

The Thunder have at least 16 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. The Thunder don’t seem overly like to make a trade. Could they firm up a rotation spot here or there? Sure. But they don’t need to. And they like all the players they have. Oklahoma City will let this playoff run tell them what they really need. If a big move is coming, it’ll come this offseason.

Orlando Magic

Cap/Tax Picture: $20.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $7.9 million (Room Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: The Magic have an extra first-round pick coming from the Nuggets in 2025 (unless Denver implodes), in addition to all of their own first-round picks.

Orlando has 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cole Anthony, Gary Harris or Moe Wagner. If the Magic make a deal, and there’s no guarantee they will, at least one of these guys will be involved. Anthony has the biggest salary, while Harris and Wagner have team options for 2025-26, which makes them essentially expiring contracts. Orlando could make a major impact move, but that hasn’t been the M.O. of this front office with in-season moves.

Philadelphia 76ers

Cap/Tax Picture: $6.1 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Sixers owe a protected first-round pick to the Thunder in 2025, 2026 or 2027. Once that is settled, the 76ers owe a protected first-round pick to the Nets in 2027 or 2028. Philadelphia has their own picks in 2029 (or favorable swap rights with the Clippers) through 2031, as well as an additional pick from the Clippers in 2028.

The Sixers have at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Not Joel Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey or Jared McCain. Everyone else could be moved by Philadelphia. Things have no gone the way the Sixers hoped for. That means all of their veterans could be on the move, as the team sets things up for the future. Keep an eye on K.J. Martin, whose contract was specifically set up to be traded.

Phoenix Suns

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.2 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.3 million (Josh Okogie)

Draft Pick Situation: Phoenix’s draft pick situation is unique and a mess. The recent trade with the Utah Jazz gave the Suns some tradable picks. Without getting too deep into the details, Phoenix has three tradable first-round picks between 2025 and 2030, but all have least-favorable conditions attached.

The Suns have one tradable second-round pick.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jusuf Nurkic. Sure, Bradley Beal will be moved if a Jimmy Butler deal happens, but Beal’s no-trade clause complicates things. Nurkic has no such restriction, and he’s probably getting moved before the deadline if Phoenix can find a taker.

Portland Trail Blazers

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.9 million (Malcolm Brogdon), $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Portland owes a lottery-protected pick to Chicago. Those protections carry out through 2028. The Blazers own their own first-round picks in 2029 through 2031, including favorable swap rights in 2029 and 2030, plus an extra first-round pick in 2029 from Boston or Milwaukee.

Portland has at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Robert Williams III. This one is about the Trail Blazers trading movable vets. Williams has been more or less healthy lately and he’s on an easily tradable contract. Keep an eye on Matisse Thybulle for the same contract reason, if teams think he can get healthy. Trades for Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton may have to wait until the offseason, because they are carrying such large salary numbers.

Sacramento Kings

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.3 million (Sasha Vezenkov), $5.9 million (Chris Duarte), $4.7 million (Jalen McDaniels), $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Kings owe a protected first-round pick to the Hawks in 2025 (top-12 protected) or 2026 (top-10 protected), but own the remainder of their own first-rounders. The Spurs can swap for the Kings pick in 2031.

Sacramento has one tradable second-round pick.

Most Likely to be Traded: Kevin Huerter or Trey Lyles. If the Kings make an impact move, they’ll move either Huerter or Lyles, or package them together. That combo seems to be what Sacramento is offering around the league in search of rotation upgrades up front or on the wing.

San Antonio Spurs

Cap/Tax Picture: $21.1 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Spurs own all of their own first-round picks. They also have most-favorable swap rights in several years too. In addition, San Antonio has extra first-round picks coming from Atlanta (2025 and 2027), Chicago (in 2025, 2026 or 2027) and Minnesota (2031).

The Spurs have at least 19 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. San Antonio doesn’t have any tax issues. They also don’t seem likely to make a major in-season move. They’ll save their big stuff for the summer.

Toronto Raptors

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.0 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Toronto owns all of their own first-rounders, plus a top-4 protected pick coming from Indiana in either 2026 or 2027.

The Raptors have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Bruce Brown or Chris Boucher. Brown and Boucher are both on expiring contracts. Brown seems unlikely to be back in Toronto, so he’ll probably be moved by the deadline. Boucher could help a lot of teams looking for frontcourt depth, but there’s been talks of an extension for him with the Raptors too.

Utah Jazz

Cap/Tax Picture: $27.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $7.9 million (Room Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: Utah still has a bushel of picks coming their way, even after their 3-picks-for-1-pick trade with the Suns. The Jazz owe a protected first-round pick to the Thunder, but it’s unclear if that pick will ever convey. They own all of their own first-round picks beyond that, plus an additional five first-rounders coming from the Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Lakers and Suns.

Utah has at least three tradable second-round picks. 

Most Likely to be Traded: John Collins or Jordan Clarkson. The Jazz have been open to moving both of these veterans for months now. Clarkson makes less, but Collins is the better player. A trade for either isn’t guaranteed before the deadline, but it wouldn’t be a surprise either.

Washington Wizards

Cap/Tax Picture: $11.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.4 million (Daniel Gafford), $6.4 million (remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Wizards owe a protected first-round pick to the Knicks, but own all of their other first-rounders. They also have the ability to swap several years of picks with the Suns, plus they own a top-20 protected Warriors pick in 2030. In addition, the Wizards added a second most-favorable pick from the Celtics, Bucks or Trail Blazers in 2029 over the summer.

Washington as has least 16 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Any veteran Wizard. No, not Gandalf or Dumbledore. But Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole. Malcolm Brogdon or Jonas Valanciunas can all be had for the right offers. Washington, by their own admission, is still in the deconstruction phase with this roster. Also, keep an eye on Richaun Holmes in a move to swap some salary around. Holmes’ extension was specifically designed to make his contract tradable.

 

Keith SmithJanuary 22, 2025

The Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz linked up on a swap of draft picks. For Utah, this was a quality over quantity trade. For Phoenix, this has the Suns set up to do something (or multiple somethings) bigger.

Here are the particulars:

Phoenix Suns acquire: least favorable 2025 Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Jazz first-round pick; least favorable 2027 Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Jazz first-round pick; least favorable 2029 Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Jazz first-round pick

Utah Jazz acquire: 2031 Suns first-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Phoenix Suns

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: None

The Suns have been incredibly creative in using their limited draft assets in the last couple of years. First, they used swap rights with several first-round picks to add some additional second-round picks. Now, the Suns turned their one remaining tradable first-round pick into three tradable first-round picks. That’s pretty good work, even if none of the resulting picks Phoenix holds has tremendous value.

Or do they? Probably not as any single individual asset. As a collective, the value is huge to Phoenix.

Before making this deal, the Suns were limited to trading only their 2031 first-round pick in deals. Because of The Stepien Rule, and following trading several picks for Kevin Durant, Phoenix was prohibited from including any additional firsts in trades.

Now, the Suns have unlocked the ability to trade three picks in a six-year window between the 2025 NBA Draft and the 2030 NBA Draft. There are still some challenges with that, however.

In 2026, 2028 and 2030, the Suns have already swapped their first-round picks in previous deals. The conditions are incredibly complicated, but here’s what you need to know: Depending on the year, Phoenix is set to have the worst pick out of a group that includes themselves, the Memphis Grizzlies, Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers and Washington Wizards.

Making it easier: In the even years, Phoenix will have a first-round pick that should land in the 20s.

With these new picks they’ve acquired, the Suns have added a whole new set of least-favorable conditions to their ledger. In the odd years from 2025 through 2029, Phoenix will get the worst pick of the Cavaliers, Timberwolves and Jazz. There are some protections on a couple of those picks too, but they aren’t likely to matter in the Suns case.

So, to make it really, really simple: The Suns traded their 2031 first-round pick for the Cavaliers 2025 first-round pick (good luck to Minnesota in trying to catch Cleveland this season!), while picking up a couple of additional first-rounders that should land in the 20s in 2027 and 2029.

Got all that? Good! Now, let’s go through what really matters.

The picks the Suns acquired are only kind of, sort of about where they might land. The key thing Phoenix acquired here is the ability to trade first-round picks at all between 2025 and 2030. That’s what this deal was really about.

Once again: James Jones was limited to offering his 2031 first-round pick in deals prior to this trade. Given the contracts the Suns are reportedly looking to move, that wasn’t going to cut it. So, Jones went out and got the ability to offer additional first-round picks to entice teams to take on some salary. That’s huge for opening up avenues for Phoenix over the next two weeks until the trade deadline.

Now, if the Suns jump into a Jimmy Butler trade and need to move Bradley Beal, Jones can offer a couple of first-round picks to help grease the wheels for a team to take on the $160 million Beal counts for on the books through 2026-27. Crucially, Phoenix might also be able to keep an additional first-round pick in reserve to convince a team to eat the $19 million owed to Jusuf Nurkic for next season.

And, of course, Jones could flip those picks in smaller deals to add depth, even if we all know the Suns are thinking bigger.

So, instead of having one pick to offer in 2031, Phoenix can now present a menu of choices to potential trade partners. You want to jump in the quagmire of “least favorable” involving a bunch of teams in the Grizzlies, Magic, Sixers, Knicks, Nets, Wizards group? Take your pick! You want to keep it simple and snag the worst pick of Cavs, Wolves and Jazz in a couple of different seasons? Absolutely!

As long as the Suns still have a first-round pick every other year, encumbered by complicated swap rights as it may be, they’re clear of violating The Stepien Rule. That’s any pick. A Phoenix pick or the worst one of any number of teams, Jones is good.

That’s the flexibility the Suns created here. And it’s probably just enough to get things moving with trading for Jimmy Butler and possibly another move alongside that one.

Now, convincing Bradley Beal to approve a trade…Well, that’s another story for another day.

Utah Jazz

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: None

Before this deal, the Jazz were sitting on a bundle of first-round picks that could have totaled 14 over the next seven drafts. That sounds great, until you factor in that Utah already has 10 players on long-term contracts. That includes three rookies drafted last season, and an additional three players that were drafted in 2023.

Essentially: Utah is as stocked with young talent as a team can reasonably be. They didn’t need that many additional bites at the apple.

Instead, the Jazz retained the best and first bites at the apple over a few years, while adding a potentially really juicy whole apple several years from now.

Keeping it really simple: This trade was about trading quantity for potential quality for Utah. The Jazz happened to have extra picks in the years where the Suns really needed some picks. And Danny Ainge took those extra picks, added “least favorable” conditions to them to protect his haul, and picked up a first-round pick that could have great value.

While Ainge has earned his criticism for always “being close” to trading for various superstars over the years, no one can knock his ability to maximize draft capital. Ainge did it twice when rebuilding the Boston Celtics, and has brought that same approach to the Jazz.

We have no idea what the Suns will be in 2031. They could be deep into a rebuild. They could have flipped high-salary players and already rebuilt. They could keep things rolling and maintain being a playoff team all the way through.

But there’s a chance that 2031 pick could be awesome. Utah gave up a couple of extra picks that are likely to be in the 20s. That’s worth it for the shot at whatever current seventh-grader might be the next Victor Wembanyama or Cooper Flagg. Danny Ainge has won before playing the long-game. He’s setting up to do it again.

 

Keith SmithJanuary 15, 2025

NBA trade wheels are back in motion! The Phoenix Suns added some frontcourt depth and the Charlotte Hornets picked up some additional draft capital in a three-weeks-to-the-deadline swap.

Here are the particulars:

Phoenix Suns acquire: Nick Richards, less favorable Nuggets or 76ers 2025 second-round pick

Charlotte Hornets acquire: Josh Okogie, 2026 Nuggets second-round pick, 2031 Nuggets second-round pick, 2031 Suns second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Phoenix Suns

Incoming salary: $5.0 million in 2024-25

  • Nick Richards (C, two years, $10.0 million (2025-26 non-guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $8.25 million in 2024-25

  • Josh Okogie (SG, two years, $16 million (2025-26 non-guaranteed))

With Jusuf Nurkic underperforming, and recently removed from the rotation, the Suns were looking for additional center depth. They got it in Nick Richards, who is quietly having a very productive season for the Hornets.

Richards has established himself as one of the better backup centers, especially for how good of a value contract he has (more on that in a bit). This season, the fifth-year big man is averaging 8.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 21 minutes per game off the Hornets bench. Richards has also shown improvement as a passer. He’s not much of a shooter, but he’s drawing a career-best 4.1 free throws per game, despite his limited minutes.

Think athleticism, energy and physicality on both ends and you have a solid profile of what Richards does. The Suns have some of those things in Mason Plumlee and rookie Oso Ighodaro, but this rounds out the Phoenix frontcourt nicely.

The Suns are now protected against injury, without having to turn back to Nurkic, assuming he even sticks around (more coming on that too). Also, if Ighodaro hits the rookie wall, Phoenix won’t be forced to make him play through it.

In addition, Richards’ contract is very team-friendly. He’s owed $5 million this season. By trading out of the $8.25 million owed the Josh Okogie, the Suns reduced their luxury tax bill by $20 million. That’s how punitive the penalties are with how deep into the tax Phoenix is. That savings can’t be discounted.

Beyond this season, Richards is signed for another $5 million for next season, which is also non-guaranteed. If, for some unlikely reason, Richards isn’t working out, Phoenix can move on without increasing their tax bill.

Trading out three seconds is offset a bit by getting one back. The 2025 second-round pick is going to be the Nuggets pick, given how far ahead of the 76ers they are in the standings. But that’s really about having an additional tradable item for the Suns, more than having a great value pick. We have no idea what the Suns or Nuggets will be in 2031, so we’ll leave those two in TBD stage for now.

Phoenix started the day nearly $31.5 million over the second apron. That left them with very restricted trade options. They did well here to use Josh Okogie’s inflated contract (Remember: Okogie was given the bigger deal to basically become a human trade exception) along with some limited draft capital, to get a rotation upgrade.

Also important: The Suns didn’t end up giving up Jusuf Nurkic in this deal. That’s huge, because now Phoenix can use his $18.1 million contract in another deal. That seems very likely, as Nurkic is clearly out of the plans in Phoenix.

Charlotte Hornets

Incoming salary: $8.25 million in 2024-25

  • Josh Okogie (SG, two years, $16 million (2025-26 non-guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $5.0 million in 2024-25

  • Nick Richards (C, two years, $10.0 million (2025-26 non-guaranteed))

This trade was about getting additional draft capital in for the Hornets. Richards is a nice player, but with Mark Williams healthy, he was never going to be more than a very good backup for Charlotte. In addition, the Hornets are very high on two-way player Moussa Diabate, who has given the team good minutes when they were down other centers due to injury.

Josh Okogie could stick in Charlotte for a bit. The Hornets aren’t exactly flush with big guard/wing depth. Brandon Miller and Josh Green are solid starters, but there’s not a lot behind them. Tre Mann has been out with an injury. Nick Smith Jr. continues to yo-yo in and out of the rotation, and Cody Martin is more of a forward than a guard.

There’s a chance Okogie gets a real look. He was pretty good for Phoenix two seasons ago as a regular rotation guy. It’s a small sample size in his limited minutes this season, but Okogie is also shooting better than ever.

Think of this as a tryout of sorts, until/if the Hornets need a roster spot. If they do (possibly to convert Diabate to standard deal), Charlotte can move on with relative ease.

Part of the reason the Hornets can move on with relative ease is that Okogie’s contract is non-guaranteed for the 2025-26 season. That’s the same flexibility the team had with Richards, but Richards was never a candidate to get waived. Okogie is, given he hasn’t been a part of the long-term build for Charlotte.

The cost of this was $3.25 million on the cap sheet for the Hornets. Given the team is still over $7 million shy of the luxury tax, Charlotte has more than enough clearance for further roster shuffling.

The second-round picks are basically additional at-bats for Charlotte. They trade out what will be a late second this season, for what could possibly be a better Denver pick next season, if the Nuggets slip. And we have no idea what the Suns or Nuggets will be in six years. Both teams could be deep into rebuilds by that point.

If nothing else, Jeff Peterson added to his draft pick stash and gave himself potential assets to offer in future deals. All by trading from a position of strength and for renting a little bit of his space under the luxury tax. That’s solid work in a non-blockbuster move.

 

Keith SmithJanuary 14, 2025

The Memphis Grizzlies should be rooting hard for Jaren Jackson Jr. to make an All-NBA team (increasingly likely) or to win Defensive Player of the Year (Jackson is in the mix, but it may be Victor Wembanyama’s award to lose) for the 2024-25 season.

Breaking News: NBA team wants their player to get accolades for a great season.

No kidding, right?

But this goes way deeper for Jackson and Memphis. And it could ultimately have an impact on the team’s ability to keep their versatile big man long-term. Before we go there, let’s go back to understand where the Grizzlies and Jackson are currently at.

Back in the 2021 offseason (in October due to the COVID-impacted adjusted calendar), the Grizzlies signed Jackson to a four-year, $104.7 million rookie scale extension. Memphis got Jackson on an under-market deal because he was coming off a knee injury that had cost him most of the 2020-21 season.

Beyond getting Jackson for less than the max, the Grizzlies were hailed at the time for making the extension a declining contract. Jackson’s extension looks like this:

  • 2022-23: $28,946,605
  • 2023-24: $27,102,202
  • 2024-25: $25,257,798
  • 2025-26: $23,413,395
  • Total: four years, $107,720,000

Well done by Memphis, right? Jackson is clearly returning more than $25.3 million in value this season (more on that in a moment) and he’s an absolute steal at $23.4 million for next season. Hard to find any criticism for the Grizzlies with this deal.

Well, not exactly…kind of. It’s not really the Grizzlies fault, but more of the circumstances of the CBA.

Memphis did a great job protecting themselves on this deal. Despite some great flashes in his first two seasons, Jackson had piled up quite the list of leg injuries. And the 11-game sample in the 2020-21 season, plus playoffs, wasn’t exactly screaming All-NBA guy.

So, in full context, Memphis signed Jackson to a very fair, and smartly structured, contract at the time. And now it could come back to bite them.

Whenever a player signs a less-than-max deal, while having loads of potential, we all get excited as cap analysts and fans. If that contract is declining, it becomes a full-blown celebration. It’s time to re-think that, at least a bit.

Under the current CBA, the NBA has made veteran extensions more lucrative than ever. Instead of being limited to a 120% raise over the final-season salary, teams can bump a player up by 140%. That’s better, but it’s still not enough in a lot of cases.

Let’s use Jackson as an example. He’s extension-eligible this summer. Because he’ll have one year left on his deal, Jackson can add four new years to his contract. Here’s what Jackson’s new deal could look like:

  • 2025-26: $23,413,395 (final season of current deal)
  • 2026-27: $32,778,753 (first season of extension)
  • 2027-28: $35,401,053
  • 2028-29: $38,023,353
  • 2029-30: $40,645,653
  • Total extension: four years, $146,848,812

That’s a full 140% bump for Jackson in the first year of his extension, plus 8% raises on the subsequent years.

That probably looks pretty good, but again, we need to frame this with some context.

Here’s the percentage of the cap that each of the above extension years would reflect:

  • 2026-27: 19%
  • 2027-28: 19%
  • 2028-29: 18%
  • 2029-30: 18%

This projects the cap to continue to grow at the maximum allowable 10% per year throughout the life of Jackson’s potential veteran extension.

That’s well below the 30% of the cap maximum Jackson could sign for if he delayed signing a new deal until he was an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2026. That deal would look like this:

  • 2026-27: $51,033,600 (30% of projected $170,112,000 cap)
  • 2027-28: $55,116,288
  • 2028-29: $59,198,976
  • 2029-30: $62,281,664
  • 2030-31: $67,364,352
  • Total: five years, $295,994,880

That’s full five-year deal using Jackson’s Bird Rights that starts at his max of 30% of the cap with 8% raises.

To be fair, we’ll eliminate the fifth year, just to do a four-year to four-year comparison of the veteran extension against the new contract:

  • Veteran Extension: four years, $146,848,812
  • New Contract: four years, $228,630,528

Jackson could be leaving nearly $82 million on the table by signing a veteran extension this summer, as opposed to waiting to sign a new deal as a free agent in the summer of 2026.

This is why signing a player to an under-market extension, combined with the declining contract can come back to bite a team. If the player breaks out, then he’s not really extendable. And, boy, has Jackson ever broken out.

Last season, Jackson was a bright spot in an injury-ravaged season for the Grizzlies. He played most of the season, only really missing games when there was little point to him playing. Playing with a lot of players on two-way and 10 Day deals (including several on Hardship contracts), Jackson managed to put together a good season. The lack of help led to some inefficiency, but the on-ball playmaker reps helped Jackson really round out his game.

This year, Jackson has built on that in a great way. As of this writing, He’s scoring a career-high 22.8 points per game on 50/35/78 shooting splits. Jackson is also grabbing 6.4 rebounds per game and handing out 2.1 assists per night.

But it’s on the defensive end where Jackson shines brightest.

Jackson is averaging 1.7 blocks and 1.5 steals per game. He’s keyed the Grizzlies fifth-ranked defense, as almost everything Memphis does is built around Jackson’s ability on that end of the floor. Jackson regularly defends 1-5, excelling on the perimeter and around the rim equally. He’s absolutely a contender to win Defensive Player of the Year.

It’s that production on defense, along with the improved offense, that might give the Grizzlies the key to paying Jackson without him ever reaching unrestricted free agency.


Even though NBA teams are no longer really spending a year or two clearing cap space to make a run at free agents, that path in roster building isn’t completely dead. It’s simply become less-used because so many players sign extensions now. However, as we covered above, a standard veteran extension isn’t going to get it done for Jaren Jackson Jr.

But a Designated Veteran Player Extension might. And that’s why the Grizzlies need to be rooting for Jackson to collect some accolades for this season.

If Jackson makes All-NBA this season or wins Defensive Player of the Year, he’d become eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Player Extension (DVPE), or so-called Super Max, this offseason. Here’s what the full DPVE would look like:

  • 2026-27: $59,539,200 (35% of projected $170,112,000 cap)
  • 2027-28: $64,302,336
  • 2028-29: $69,065,472
  • 2029-30: $73,828,608
  • 2030-31: $78,591,744
  • Total: five years, $345,327,360

That’s the 35% of the cap max with 8% raises each season. That’s the maximum a player qualifies for by reaching All-NBA status, winning Defensive Player of the Year or winning MVP.

For comparison’s sake, that’s about $49.3 million over the 30% max Jackson could get as an unrestricted free agent in 2026. It’s nearly $120 million more in the four-year-to-four-year comp to the standard veteran extension.

Now, is Jaren Jackson Jr. a full 35% of the cap max guy? Probably not, especially not for the Grizzlies.

Memphis is a small market team and they already have Ja Morant on a max extension and Desmond Bane on a near-max deal. Under the new CBA, building a team around three max players is really, really hard. And Memphis has never been a team that has dipped deep into the luxury tax.

More simply put: It’s not likely Jackson will get the full super max.

But here’s the thing: Making All-NBA or winning Defensive Player of the Year to still be a huge win for Jackson and the Grizzlies, even without the full super max.


The only ways for Memphis to pay Jackson more than he can get in a standard veteran extension are to let him hit unrestricted free agency in 2026. That’s risky. He’s good enough, and young enough, that whatever cap space teams are out there (there will be a few in the 2026 offseason) would make a run at Jackson with a full max offer. They couldn’t beat the Grizzlies deal, because those teams would be limited to offering a four-year deal with 5% raises, but it’s still a risk. No one wants their players in free agency, if they can avoid it.

The other way to pay Jackson more than the standard veteran extension is if he qualifies for the Designated Veteran Player Extension. Yes, that full super max is more than what Memphis should give Jackson. The good news? They don’t have to give him the full 35% of the cap max!

If Jackson qualifies for the DVPE, Memphis can give him a five-year deal but it only has to start at the 30% of the cap figure. The other key: It would free up Memphis to sign Jackson to this bigger, longer extension this summer. That’s huge for keeping Jackson out of free agency in 2026.

Jackson is definitely going to get a 30% of the cap max, whether it’s from the Grizzlies or another team. If he makes All-NBA or wins Defensive Player of the Year, Memphis can get that done as soon as July.

We also have a recent example of a defensive-minded big man getting extended in exactly this fashion.

When Rudy Gobert signed his last extension with the Utah Jazz in 2020 (since played out and replaced by his current extension with the Minnesota Timberwolves), he could have signed a 35% of the cap DVPE deal. But Gobert and the Jazz split the difference. Jackson and the Grizzlies could do something similar. A reasonable compromise for both sides is to probably start the extension at the 30% of the cap amount (or maybe a bit more), but with a player option on the fifth season.

That would get Jackson paid, plus give him a five-year deal, which he can only get from Memphis in free agency or on a Designated Veteran Player Extension. And, crucially, it would give Jackson the ability to get into free agency in 2030 ahead of his age-30 season. That’s definitely young enough to cash in on one more big contract, from Memphis or elsewhere.

NBA teams publicly want their players to garner accolades like MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or All-NBA. They campaign for it openly every season. That means that player had a great season, and those awards are often tied to team success as well, which means the team was likely pretty good too.

Behind closed doors, when those accolades impact the player’s ability to get paid significantly more, teams are often less enthusiastic. It can cause stress on the cap sheet in a way that might not have been planned for, especially if the player reached those heights unexpectedly. That’s even more prevalent in this new CBA world of hard caps, aprons and the restrictions that come with them.

In the case of Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Memphis Grizzlies, his breakout season is the best of both worlds. Jackson gets his accolades and the love for his play and the Grizzlies benefit by being a very good team this season. And, of course, it will allow Memphis to give Jackson a big contract early without risking one of their best players hitting unrestricted free agency. That’s a win-win scenario in a spot that’s often 50-50 at best.

 

Keith SmithJanuary 05, 2025

January 7 isn’t a well-known date on the NBA calendar, but it should be. Many know that on January 10, all NBA contracts become fully guaranteed. What isn’t as well-known is that in order for a team to not have a fully guaranteed deal land on their books for the rest of the season, they have to make a decision by January 7.

Teams must waive players on partial/non-guaranteed deals by January 7 in order for them to clear waivers before January 10. (The waiver period is 48 hours). Thus, while January 10 is the technical date that all contracts become fully guaranteed, January 7 is the functional deadline.

There are 23 players in limbo before the January 7 deadline. Here are the decisions NBA teams must make. (All salary amounts reflect the player’s fully guaranteed cap hit.)

Atlanta Hawks

No guarantee decisions

Boston Celtics

No guarantee decisions

Brooklyn Nets

Keon Johnson - $2,162,606

Johnson is going to stick in Brooklyn. He’s become a starter and he’s young enough to be part of whatever the Nets are building next. Johnson is the kind of diamond-in-the-rough that Sean Marks had success with during his first rebuild.

Jalen Wilson - $1,891,857

Wilson is also going be with the Nets beyond the guarantee deadline. He’s another rotation guy, and sometimes-starter for Jordi Fernandez. Wilson isn’t going anywhere.

Charlotte Hornets

Taj Gibson - $2,087,519

If the Hornets feel they need an open roster spot, they could cut Gibson loose. Charlotte is also more than $10 million under the tax. That means the Hornets could always waive Gibson down the line if they need a roster spot without creating a tax issue. Bet on the veteran locker room leader sticking around in Charlotte.

Chicago Bulls

Talen Horton-Tucker - $2,087,519

Horton-Tucker is a regular in Billy Donovan’s rotation. The Bulls are also expected to be active at the trade deadline. So, despite an overstuffed backcourt rotation, Horton-Tucker will stay in Chicago.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Sam Merrill - $2,164,993

Merrill may not stick as a rotation player as the Cavs get healthy, but he’s not going anywhere either. Cleveland has had injury issues on the wing, so Merrill stays as a quality depth player for a title contender.

Craig Porter Jr. - $1,891,857

Porter is already $1 million guaranteed, so that alone probably keeps him on the Cleveland roster. But he’s also become a solid third point guard, and the Cavaliers have him for two more full seasons beyond this one. Porter isn’t going anywhere.

Tristan Thompson - $2,087,519

Thompson is a respected locker room voice. He’s also proven to be a decent depth player, when other bigs are out. Thompson will see his deal guaranteed.

Dallas Mavericks

Markieff Morris - $2,087,519

The Mavericks have been active in trade talks, but most trade configurations see Dallas giving up more players than they bring back. Morris is locker room leader for Jason Kidd, so he’s likely to stick around Dallas for the season.

Denver Nuggets

No guarantee decisions

Detroit Pistons

No guarantee decisions

Golden State Warriors

Gui Santos - $1,891,857

The Warriors are so tight around their first apron hard cap, that they have to keep Santos. Replacing him with a non-drafted player would cause Golden State to see a higher than desirable tax hit, which causes further hard cap issues. Santos will stay beyond the guarantee deadline.

Lindy Waters III - $2,196,970

Waters is a rotation regular for Steve Kerr. He’s not going anywhere. As stated above, it would be hard for the Warriors to find any kind of replacement if they did cut Waters loose.

Houston Rockets

No guarantee decisions

Indiana Pacers

James Johnson - $2,087,519

Last season, Indiana cut Johnson loose, then brought him back after making other roster moves. Something similar could occur this season. One other thing to keep in mind: The Pacers are around $800,000 below the luxury tax. They won’t be paying the tax, so Johnson could be waived and re-signed later to create more space under the tax.

James Wiseman - $2,237,691

Wiseman is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. This one is probably about needing a roster spot. If the Pacers need one, Wiseman might be cut loose. Otherwise, he’ll keep working on coming back to be a part of Indiana’s rotation next season.

LA Clippers

No guarantee decisions

Los Angeles Lakers

No guarantee decisions

Memphis Grizzlies

No guarantee decisions

Miami Heat

No guarantee decisions

Milwaukee Bucks

Andre Jackson Jr. - $1,891,857

Jackson is a starter for the Bucks and the team’s best perimeter defender. He’s also got two more seasons on his deal beyond this one. He’s on one of the most team-friendly contracts in the league in terms of cost vs production. Jackson isn’t going anywhere. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

No guarantee decisions

New Orleans Pelicans

Zion Williamson - $36,725,670

Williamson’s deal is half-guaranteed for almost $18.4 million. That alone means he’s not getting waived. But the talent is still there. The Pelicans aren’t ready to make this move now. After next season, if Williamson keeps missing time with injuries, we could be looking at a different story. We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.

New York Knicks

Ariel Hukporti - $1,064,049

After all the machinations to get to the minimum roster requirements following the Karl-Anthony Towns trade, the Knicks signed Hukporti to a standard deal. Tight margins under their first apron hard cap, combined with Hukporti’s upside, means he’s not going anywhere.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Branden Carlson - $990,895

Carlson is on the roster bubble in Oklahoma City. The Thunder will likely prioritize the flexibility of having an open roster spot over keeping Carlson. Keep an eye on Oklahoma City bringing him back into the fold down the line, if the opportunity arises.

Jaylin Williams - $2,019,699

Williams is healthy now and providing frontcourt depth for the Thunder. He’s not going anywhere. The real story to watch here is if Oklahoma City declines their 2025-26 team option to make Williams a restricted free agent this summer. That would allow the Thunder to control Williams’ free agency, as they’d like to retain him long-term.

Orlando Magic

No guarantee decisions

Philadelphia 76ers

Ricky Council IV - $1,891,857

Council gives Nick Nurse wing depth on a team-friendly deal. Given Philadelphia is already over the tax, they need players like Council to provide minutes on minimum-type deals. Council will see his deal guaranteed.

Phoenix Suns

No guarantee decisions

Portland Trail Blazers

Dalano Banton - $2,196,970

Banton has been a rotation regular for Chauncey Billups since arriving at last season’s trade deadline. He’ll have his deal guaranteed for the rest of the season. This summer, we’ll get a sense of how much Portland values Banton’s ability to provide perimeter scoring.

Sacramento Kings

Jae Crowder - $1,655,619

Crowder was added earlier this season to give the Kings additional forward depth. He hasn’t played very much however, and Sacramento interim head coach Doug Christie doesn’t seem to have room for Crowder in his rotation. There’s a 50-50 chance Crowder is waived for roster flexibility for the Kings approaching the trade deadline.

Doug McDermott - $2,087,519

McDermott has been in and out of the Kings rotation. He can still shoot, but doesn’t offer a whole lot else. Much like Crowder, Sacramento could waive McDermott for flexibility with their roster and to create a bit more wiggle room under the luxury tax line.

Orlando Robinson - $2,087,519

Robinson is in the same spot as Crowder and McDermott. He doesn’t have a regular role, and the Kings may want roster flexibility and more space under the tax line. The best guess here is that one of these three veterans is cut loose before the guarantee deadline.

San Antonio Spurs

No guarantee decisions

Toronto Raptors

Bruno Fernando - $2,087,519

Fernando hasn’t been a rotation player for the rebuilding Raptors. Now that their frontcourt is healthy, Toronto is likely to move on before Fernando’s deal guarantees. That will allow the Raptors to cycle through some players to see if someone proves to be a long-term fit for the roster.

Utah Jazz

No guarantee decisions

Washington Wizards

No guarantee decisions

 

Keith SmithJanuary 02, 2025

NBA decision-makers recently spent a week in Orlando for the 2024 G League Showcase. The Westchester Knicks took home the Showcase Cup for the second straight season, but the main reason for the event was for NBA front office executives to mingle together. It’s considered the cousin to Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings, as a space where NBA trade talks take off in full. This season, teams got a jump on the trade process, as we’ve already seen three December deals, including two before the Showcase even took place.

The other purpose of the event is for G League players to show out for NBA front office personnel. Many rostered players have stood out during the first part of the G League season. This includes players on standard contracts and players signed to two-way deals. But it’s the other guys, the free agents, who need the Showcase to earn an NBA callup.

These callups could occur via a 10-day contract. Teams are allowed to sign players to 10-day deals starting on January 5. The other option is further shuffling of two-way contracts.

As of this writing, 11 teams have an open standard roster spot:

  • Boston Celtics
  • Cleveland Cavaliers
  • Detroit Pistons
  • Golden State Warriors
  • Houston Rockets
  • Miami Heat
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • New Orleans Pelicans
  • New York Knicks
  • Philadelphia 76ers
  • Phoenix Suns

In addition, there are two teams with open two-way spots:

  • Golden State Warriors
  • Orlando Magic

Other roster spots will open up as teams make trades (the trade deadline is February 8) or if teams waive players (the last day to waive players before contracts guarantee is January 7).

The following players have stood out, both in the early part of the G League season and at the Showcase event in Orlando. Others have been mentioned regularly by NBA scouts and front office executives as players who might garner a callup from the G League.

This time, we’re going to split the list up a bit differently. We’re going to present some NBA veterans playing in the G League that that are familiar names. Then we’ll get into the deeper names to know, before finishing with a bit of a bonus list of guys outside of the NBA orbit right now.

(Note: This list is presented in no particular order. It is not a ranking of any kind!)

All stats as of January 1, 2024 and provided by RealGM’s G League Database

 

NBA Veterans in the G League

Guards

Jaylen Nowell – Capital City Go-Go, SG, 6’4’’, 25 years old

Nowell has bounced on and off NBA rosters for the past couple of seasons. He’s certainly too good of a player to stay in the G League, but he hasn’t been able to find an NBA home either. This season, Nowell is averaging 26.4 points on robust 56/51/88 shooting splits. When a team needs some scoring punch, they’d do well to look in Nowell’s direction.

Trey Burke – Mexico City Capitanes, PG, 6’0’’, 32 years old

Yep, that Trey Burke! He’s still going and he’s playing really well for the G League’s only unaffiliated team. Burke is putting up 20.3 points and 5.3 assists per game. He’s also shooting fairly well with 46/39/87 splits. We’ve seen NBA teams go with veterans when they need a point guard in a pinch. That could be Burke’s path back to the NBA.

Wings

Nassir Little – Sioux Falls Skyforce, SG/SF, 6’6’’, 24 years old

Little is an NBA player. There should be no question about that. He’s already had productive NBA years and he’s still only 24 years old. What’s really encouraging is that instead of sulking about not being in the NBA, Little has gone to one of the G League’s furthest-flung outposts and just put in work. He’s been one of the best all-around players in the G League this year. He’ll be back on an NBA roster soon, and probably as more than just a 10 Day callup.

Juan Toscano-Anderson – Mexico City Capitanes, SF/SG, 6’6’’, 31 years old

It’s been a few years since Toscano-Anderson emerged as a rotation find for the Golden State Warriors. All of that shine is off, but he’s still a tough, defensive-minded wing. If Toscano-Anderson shot it more consistently, he’d probably be on an NBA team already. But there’s room for him if a team needs a guy who can hold his own defending 1-4.

Forwards

Eugene Omoruyi – Raptors 905, SF, 6’6’’, 27 years old

Omoruyi has played himself into a callup before. He’s right on the fringe of being on an NBA roster. This season, he’s refocused a bit as more of a finisher and defender. That focus has Omoruyi hitting 59.2% from the floor, while grabbing 7.9 rebounds. He’s the kind of athlete that teams like, because Omoruyi can be pretty plug-and-play in a pinch.

T.J. Warren – Westchester Knicks, SF/PF, 6’8’’, 31 years old

Warren is way overqualified for the G League. He’s scoring with relative ease at the minor league level. The good news is that he looks healthy. That’s what has kept Warren off NBA rosters the last few seasons. When a team needs a forward who can score, they’d do well to give Warren a look.

Bigs

Moses Brown – Westchester Knicks, C, 7’2’’’, 25 years old

Brown already spent part of the season on the Indiana Pacers roster. He’s clearly on the verge of being in the NBA again. In the G League, he’s one of the best rebounders and rim protectors in the league. Brown uses his size to dominate on the interior. That’s come together in flashes in the NBA. Look for an NBA team to bet on Brown being the classic late-bloomer center with another shot in the big league.

 

G Leaguers to know

Guards

Jalen Crutcher – Birmingham Squadron, PG, 6’1’’, 25 years old

Crutcher has seen NBA time before, but he’s mostly been in the G League. That seems on the verge of changing. Crutcher is an improved playmaker, as he’s now regularly breaking down defenses to set up his teammates. He’s also become a high-volume three-point shooter, as he’s hitting 38% on 9.2 three-point attempts per game. Crutcher can be an NBA-caliber backup point guard, when he gets his chance.

Markquis Nowell – Rio Grande Valley Vipers, PG, 5’7’’, 25 years old

Nowell is someone whose name came up a lot in talks with NBA front office personnel. It was usually qualified with “if he was bigger” and/or “if he just shot better”. Nowell is tiny and he’s struggled to finish inside of the arc. But he’s a top-tier playmaker and an on-ball pest of the highest order. Nowell has even blocked 17 shots in 19 games too. He might not get a shot, because of his size and his lack of finishing, but Nowell is getting more attention game by game.

Ethan Thompson – Osceola Magic, SG, 6’5’’, 25 years old

Thompson is one of the best and most efficient scorers in the G League. He’s gotten there by becoming a volume shooter, as he’s knocked down 41.9% of his 8.6 three-point attempts per game. This season, Thompson is playing more defense too. Look for a potential late-season callup when a team needs someone who can put the ball in the hoop.

Jaden Shackelford – Valley Suns, SG, 6’3’’, 23 years old

If Shackelford was a bit bigger, he’d probably already be on an NBA roster. His lack of size works against him defensively. Offensively, Shackelford has it all. He’s got a quick release and can really score. He’s not much of a playmaker, which hurt him being the size of a combo guard. Think old-school bench scoring guard and you’ve got what Shackelford can bring to an NBA team.

Wings

Jarrett Culver – Osceola Magic, SG/SF, 6’6’’, 25 years old

Culver has a little bit of Kris Dunn in him. Dunn went to the G League, reestablished himself and fought his way back to the NBA. Culver could be next. He’s still not much of a shooter, but Culver has played really well on defense and can do a little bit of everything on offense, including running the show. His NBA story hasn’t been fully written yet.

Paul Watson – Valley Suns, SG/SF, 6’6’’, 30 years old

We’re getting close to “now or never” time for Watson, but the time could be now. He’s a shooter with size now, as opposed to trying to do everything on offense. Watson focusing on being a 3&D guy has him playing the best ball of his long G League career. He could have one more run at the NBA in him.

Buddy Boeheim – Oklahoma City Blue, SG/SF, 6’5’’, 25 years old

Boeheim is a one-skill guy, but that one skill is pretty good. Boeheim is hitting 42.4% on a whopping 10.1 three-point attempts per game. Given how much NBA teams value shooting, that has him getting another look from the league. Sometimes being really good at the one thing you can do pays off, and that seems to be the case for Boeheim.

Forwards

Reggie Perry – Greensboro Swarm, PF, 6’8’’, 24 years old

Perry is undersized center in a power forward’s body. He attacks the glass like a big man, and that’s got him on the NBA radar. Perry is also a rugged defender with some switchability. Most exciting? He’s hit 40.5% from deep, albeit on a small sample size. Perry is a guy to keep an eye on for sure.

Maozinha Pereira – Memphis Hustle, PF, 6’8’’, 24 years old

Pereira got a callup with the Grizzlies last season and held his own in the NBA. That sent him back to the G League with a mission: Rounding out his offensive game. Periera is relentless worker on defense and on the boards. However, without a reliable jumper, his lack of size will keep him from making it in the NBA. This year in the G League, Pereira is taking more jumpers than ever. It’s a major work in progress, but the form looks good. Periera will be back in the NBA. Even more: Periera will eventually be an NBA rotation guy too.

Warith Alatishe – Texas Legends, SF/PF, 6’7’’, 24 years old

None of the raw numbers really jump out at you on Alatishe’s stat sheet. But you watch him play and he’s just everywhere. He’s always doing stuff. Alatishe is a constant blur of motion and energy, and he plays REALLY hard too. Guys like that tend to find their way onto an NBA roster eventually.

Cam Martin – Motor City Cruise, PF, 6’9’’, 26 years old

Martin looks like a potential stretch big for an NBA team. He’s rediscovered the shot, which made him a prospect to watch way back in 2021 at Missouri Southern State in Division 2. Martin can also get on the glass and is a solid ball-mover and screener too. There’s something here.

Bigs

Ibou Badji – Wisconsin Herd, C, 7’0’’, 22 years old

At some point a guy goes from “raw prospect” to a guy who just never put it together. Badji is still in the former camp for at least one more year. A year on a two-way deal with Portland didn’t do a whole lot for him, but there’s a raw skillset with Badji that is so enticing. He’s got to get stronger and he needs to learn how to play, but the athleticism at his size will keep getting Badji NBA looks.

Jamarion Sharp – Texas Legends, C, 7’5’’, 23 years old

Sharp is an absolutely massive human being. His collegiate career was weird, but Sharp is putting things together in the G League. As one would hope for a 7-foot-5 center, he’s an outstanding shot-blocker and a good rebounder. What’s exciting is that Sharp is showing off improved touch around the basket. He needs work, but there’s talent here. Could be a good two-way candidate for a team that develops big men.

 

Non-G League Veterans to Watch

Lonnie Walker IV – Zalgiris (Lithuania), SG, 6’4’’, 26 years old

Walker is a known quantity at this point. He can score and shoot. He doesn’t do a lot else, but Walker does those things well enough that teams like him. With Zalgiris, Walker has looked good. He’s drawing lots of NBA interest and wouldn’t be a surprise to see him land with a team before the season ends.

Markelle Fultz – Free Agent, PG, 6’4’’, 26 years old

Fultz has been working through a reported knee issue. That’s kept him from signing a deal to this point. When healthy, he’s expected to draw interest from teams looking for an on-ball playmaker. Fultz might have to play on a 10 Day contract or two to prove himself healthy, but a full NBA deal will come eventually for him.

Dennis Smith Jr. – Free Agent, PG, 6’3’’, 27 years old

Smith put together a solid season for the Brooklyn Nets last year. Teams love his defense, but it’s the lack of reliable jumper that has him still looking for an NBA spot. Smith signed with the G League, but didn’t land where he wanted, so he hasn’t played a game yet. He’ll pop up when a team has a need for some on-ball defense in their backcourt.

Oshae Brissett – Free Agent, PF/SF, 6’7’’, 26 years old

Brissett was a beloved member of the Boston Celtics locker room last season. He’s had overseas offers, but has held off while hoping for another NBA job. Brissett is likely to catch on when a team needs a forward. He’s reportedly stayed in great shape and looks good according to those who have seen him play.

Robert Covington – Free Agent, PF, 6’7’’, 34 years old

Covington played in a couple of games for Team USA in AmeriCup Qualifiers in November. He looked good enough that a handful of NBA teams put him on their lists to keep an eye on. If Covington is willing to go the 10 Day route, don’t be surprised if a team with a need for some frontcourt defense and shooting gives him a look.

 

Keith SmithDecember 29, 2024

After nearly two years of transaction inaction, the Los Angeles Lakers hooked up with a familiar trade partner in a deal with the Brooklyn Nets. The Lakers got some frontcourt depth, while the Nets gained even more financial flexibility for the summer of 2025.

Here are the particulars:

Los Angeles Lakers acquire: Dorian Finney-Smith, Shake Milton

Brooklyn Nets acquire: D’Angelo Russell, Maxwell Lewis, three Lakers second-round picks in 2027 (if Lakers first-round pick falls 5-30), 2030 and 2031

Let’s dive in!

Los Angeles Lakers

Incoming salary: $17.8 million in 2024-25

  • Dorian Finney-Smith (PF/SF, two years, $30.3 million), Shake Milton (PG, three years, $9.2 million (final two seasons non-guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $20.6 million in 2024-25

  • D’Angelo Russell (PG/SG, one year, $18.7 million), Maxwell Lewis (SF, three years, $6.5 million (final two seasons partially and non-guaranteed))

With Jarred Vanderbilt’s and Christian Wood’s returns to play continuing to be uncertain, along with LeBron James managing a foot issue, the Los Angeles Lakers needed frontcourt depth. They got it in the form of Dorian Finney-Smith.

Finney-Smith is no longer the three/four wing stopper he once was, but he’s still an upgrade over the Lakers current bigger perimeter defenders. Finney-Smith has transitioned into being more of a four/small-ball five. And that has even more value for Los Angeles, who doesn’t have much behind Anthony Davis at the moment.

The Lakers will also benefit from Finney-Smith’s shooting. Normally a good shooter from the behind the arc, the veteran forward has been outstanding this season. Finney-Smith is at a career-best 43.5% on three-pointers this season. That’s a boon for JJ Redick, whose offense can often go lacking from the outside.

Giving up Russell leaves Los Angeles a bit thin in the backcourt. However, the veteran guard had seen his role reduced in recent weeks after being moved to the bench. Shake Milton will slot into a three-guard rotation with Austin Reaves and Gabe Vincent. Dalton Knecht will also likely figure more into the backcourt rotation, as frontcourt minutes will be harder to come by with Finney-Smith in the fold.

After an uptick in playing time recently, Milton has shown he can still be a rotation guard. He’s more of a scoring threat than a playmaker, but the Lakers have plenty of passing in the units where Milton may play. They should be able to find a use for his scoring and shooting ability.

Financially, this move is also a win for the Lakers. They go from just $30,001 under the second apron to about $3.5 million under the second apron. That flexibility is huge for Rob Pelinka, as he could still look to make more moves down the line.

Long-term, the Lakers potentially take on $15.4 million on next season’s books, assuming Finney-Smith picks up his player option. It’s also possible that the veteran forward could opt out and re-sign with the Lakers for less money next season, but tacking on a couple of additional seasons.

In terms of draft picks, the Lakers had five available second-rounders to trade and gave up three of them in this deal. They still have their own second-round pick, as well as the Clippers second-round in 2025 to offer in a deal. (Note on the 2027 second-round pick the Lakers are sending the Nets: That pick will only convey if the Lakers send their first-round pick to the Utah Jazz that season. That pick is top-four protected.)

This may not have been the star trade that many Los Angeles Lakers fans were hoping for. But this is a smart move by Rob Pelinka. Dorian Finney-Smith will help the Lakers a lot in their injury-depleted frontcourt. And freeing up additional flexibility for other potential moves can’t go overlooked either.

Brooklyn Nets

Incoming salary: $20.6 million in 2024-25

  • D’Angelo Russell (PG/SG, one year, $18.7 million), Maxwell Lewis (SF, three years, $6.5 million (final two seasons partially and non-guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $17.8 million in 2024-25

  • Dorian Finney-Smith (PF/SF, two years, $30.3 million), Shake Milton (PG, three years, $9.2 million (final two seasons non-guaranteed))

The Brooklyn Nets are continuing to reshape their roster on the fly this season. A trade of Dorian Finney-Smith always seemed likely, especially so after Dennis Schroder was dealt earlier this month. The Nets are now rebalanced a bit, as they figure out what they want the rest of this season to be.

After trading Schroder, Brooklyn was extremely thin in the backcourt, especially at point guard. D’Angelo Russell now returns to the Nets, where he had the best years of his NBA career so far.

Expect Russell to step into the starting lineup, as he’ll share the ballhandling duties with Ben Simmons. The duo once formed a very effective partnership at Montverde Academy in high school and now reunite in the NBA. Russell’s ability to create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates will help a Nets offense that floundered after Schroder was traded.

Beyond that, expect Sean Marks to see if the opportunity to move Russell in a subsequent deal comes up. Russell is on an expiring contract, and he doesn’t have a real place on a rebuilding team. If no deal comes, look for Russell to play out the season with the Nets, as he attempts to rebuild his value.

A buyout for Russell is possible, but doesn’t seem overly likely. Because his $18.7 million salary is larger than the Non-Taxpayer MLE, Russell would be ineligible to sign with a team that is over the apron following a buyout. That eliminates teams like the Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets from being spots for Russell after a buyout.

Maxwell Lewis is the kind of flyer that has paid off for Marks in the past. Lewis came into the 2023 NBA Draft as a potential wing shooter, with some defensive upside. He’s barely played in the NBA over two seasons, but has logged a decent amount of G League time. Last season, Lewis showed some 3&D potential with the South Bay Lakers. This year, his shooting has dropped off, but Lewis has shown a bit more on-ball playmaking ability. The Nets can toss him some minutes the rest of this season and see what they have, before making a decision on his contract for next season.

Financially, this move frees up even more potential cap space for the Nets in the summer of 2025. Brooklyn was already at a league-high $40.7 million in projected space. Now, Sean Marks has about $54.7 million to use this summer. That’s enough for a max signing, should the Nets want to move in that direction. Most importantly? It’s enough space to go in almost any direction for Brooklyn.

Finally, Marks added another three picks to his stash. The Nets now have 15 first-round picks and 16 second-round picks over the next seven drafts. That’s huge for Brooklyn, as that kind of capital will put them in the mix for just about any player who become available via trade.

The Brooklyn Nets aren’t done yet, at least it doesn’t feel like it. Sean Marks probably has another deal or two or in him before we get to the trade deadline. He’s got the ability to take this team in a lot of directions, as he sets up for what looks like a very important summer in Brooklyn.

 

Keith SmithDecember 15, 2024

The first official trade of the 2024-25 NBA trade season wasn’t a big one, but it was a rare December 15th deal. The Indiana Pacers filled a need in their frontcourt, while the Miami Heat created a little more flexibility around the second apron.

Here are the particulars:

Indiana Pacers acquire: Thomas Bryant

Miami Heat acquire: Right to swap 2031 second-round picks with Indiana

Let’s dive in!

Indiana Pacers

Incoming salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

  • Thomas Bryant (C, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: None

Indiana looked like they had really good depth behind Myles Turner to open the season. Isaiah Jackson has proven to be a solid backup, while James Wiseman was signed as a flyer for additional depth. Unfortunately, within about a week of each other, both Jackson and Wiseman suffered torn Achilles’ tendons. That has both backup centers sidelined for the season.

Now, the Pacers are turning to veteran Thomas Bryant to fill some backup minutes. It’s a homecoming for Bryant, who played his college ball at Indiana University.

Bryant hasn’t played much over the last two seasons, with 48 total appearances for the Miami Heat. In previous stops with the Los Angeles Lakers (twice), the Washington Wizards and Denver Nuggets, Bryant has proven to be a valuable offensive big. The 6-foot-10 center can step out and shoot it some, while being a solid finisher inside. Bryant has also been a dependable rebounder throughout his career.

One quirk of this deal: Because Bryant was traded while on a one-year deal, he’ll lose his Early Bird rights in this trade. When a player is traded while on a one-year deal, they lose their Bird or Early Bird rights. This is why those players can qualify for an implied no-trade clause, so that they don’t unilaterally lose those free agent rights if they’re traded. In Bryant’s case, he waived his right to block a trade. And, given he’s veteran minimum player, this wasn’t all that likely to matter anyway.

As far as the pick goes, it’s an extremely minor cost for the Pacers to get a little bit of frontcourt depth. If Bryant can help Indiana stabilize things behind Turner, a second-round swap will be well worth it.

Miami Heat

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

  • Thomas Bryant (C, one year, $2.1 million)

Bryant wasn’t in the Heat rotation. Even when Miami was down bodies in their frontcourt behind Bam Adebayo, Erik Spoelstra wasn’t going to Bryant. That made him a very tradable player.

For the Heat, this trade was all about creating a more flexibility under the second apron. Miami isn’t hard-capped at the second apron, but they were closer to that marker than they really wanted to be. Before this trade, the Heat had about $1.6 million in space under the second apron. Now, the Heat have more than $3.7 million in wiggle room under the second apron.

Given Miami has been involved in trade rumors involving Jimmy Butler, who carries a $48.8 million salary, the Heat would likely be taking back quite of bit of salary in a trade. Now, it’s fair to note that Miami may not make a trade involving Butler at all. But if they do, they’ll bring back a good amount of salary in return.

The important thing: In a Butler trade or another deal, the Heat now have more clearance under the apron than they had before getting off Bryant’s salary.

One last note: the Heat are now down to 13 players signed to standard contracts. Miami will have 14 days to get back into roster compliance by signing a 14th player to a standard deal. The Heat can also go up to 28 total days with less than 14 players on standard deals. So, they can game the system a bit by signing and waiving a player, until they max out their 28 total days.

Keith SmithDecember 15, 2024

The Golden State Warriors and the Brooklyn Nets got the 2024-25 trade season off to a running start with a rare December 15th deal. Both sides accomplished goals in the first major deal of the season.

Here are the particulars:

Golden State Warriors acquire: Dennis Schroder, 2025 Heat second-round pick (if 38-59)

Brooklyn Nets acquire: De’Anthony Melton, Reece Beekman, 2026 Hawks second-round pick, 2028 Hawks second-round pick, 2029 Warriors second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Golden State Warriors

Incoming salary: $13.0 million in 2024-25

  • Dennis Schroder (PG, one year, $13.0 million)

Outgoing salary: $12.8 million in 2024-25

  • De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG, one year, $12.8 million)

The Warriors needed more on-ball creation ability. When Stephen Curry sits, everything falls to Draymond Green or inexperienced playmakers to make things happen for the Golden State offense. Adding Schroder should fix that.

Reports are that the Warriors are considering starting Schroder alongside Curry in the backcourt. That’s fine, but the real value of adding Schroder will come in the non-Curry minutes. Now, Steve Kerr can confidently put the ball in a playmaker’s hands for all 48 minutes. That’s should be huge for helping to open up the game for other players. That includes Brandin Podziemski, who has really struggled when tasked with running the offense in his second season.

Salary-wise, this doesn’t change much for Golden State. They went from just over $530,000 from their first-apron hard cap to about $330,000 away from that marker. Both Schroder and Melton are on expiring deals, so there’s no long-term change either. One nice benefit with acquiring Schroder: He has Early Bird rights after this season. That could give the Warriors a decent leg up on re-signing him.

Golden State also gave up Reece Beekman in his deal. Beekman became part of the exclusive club of two-way players to get traded. The Warriors being so tight to the first-apron hard cap means they still can’t fill their 15th standard roster spot, but that has no bearing on filling their open two-way spot. Expect Golden State to sign a replacement for Beekman shortly.

The Warriors are a bit light on second-round picks after this deal. That made it important to get the protected Heat second-rounder in the trade. That’s at least something Golden State can offer up in a future deal.

Brooklyn Nets

Incoming salary: $12.8 million in 2024-25

  • De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG, one year, $12.8 million)

Outgoing salary: $13.0 million in 2024-25

  • Dennis Schroder (PG, one year, $13.0 million)

This trade was about two things for the Nets. First, they went plus-two in second-round picks. The two Hawks picks (2026 and 2028) and the Warriors pick (2029) are all far enough out that it’s impossible to know where they’ll land. If nothing else, Sean Marks has added to what is becoming a pretty impressive stash of future draft capital.

But mostly, this trade was about moving toward development, or pivoting toward ping pong balls, or straight-up tanking, if you will. The Nets didn’t get better in this trade. Dennis Schroder was arguably the Nets best player this season, especially when you factor in availability. De’Anthony Melton is out for the season. So, not only did Brooklyn not get better, they instead got significantly worse.

And that was the whole idea.

Entering play on December 15, the Nets had the ninth-worst record in the NBA. For a team that reacquired their own 2025 first-round pick ahead of the season, that’s not really where Brooklyn wants to be.

Here’s the good news: Brooklyn is only four losses behind the Jazz and Raptors to fall (jump?) into a top-three pick. Why is that the target range? The top three picks have the flattened odds in the draft lottery. In a loaded draft, the Nets want to have as high of a pick as possible. Getting up to the top-three group would give them the best chance at that.

By moving Schroder now, Marks may not have gotten the absolute most value for the veteran point guard as he may have down the line. It’s possible that by waiting, the Nets could have driven a bidding war for Schroder, especially if teams became desperate for backcourt help.

However, Marks made the right call to make a deal now, even if he might have gotten something a little better down the line. The Nets need to start losing, and start losing at a pretty good clip, right now if they’re going to maximize their lottery odds. By trading Schroder, Brooklyn becomes a worse team, which will increase the chances that they lose more games. Waiting nearly two months to make a deal might have come after a handful more victories than makes sense for the Nets.

On the court, Brooklyn is really light on ballhandling and playmaking. Ben Simmons will likely see increased on-ball reps. That could have a side effect of improving Simmons’ play and his confidence. Beyond Simmons, Shake Milton and Keon Johnson are the only healthy playmakers on the roster right now. Cam Thomas can do some ballhandling, but he’s a score-first guy and he’s working his way back from a hamstring injury.

The above is why the Nets acquired Reece Beekman in the deal. It’s rare for a two-way player to be traded, and even more rare for one to be traded to fill a need, but here we are. Beekman faced an uphill battled to find NBA minutes on a deep Warriors squad. With the Nets thin backcourt, Beekman could be a rotation player right away.

In nine G League games, Beekman has looked pretty solid. The 6-foot-3 point guard has averaged 18.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 2.8 steals per game. Beekman has also shot 51.5% from the field and 34.5% from behind the arc. As a four-year college starter, Beekman also comes in with more experience than your average rookie guard. Expect to see him getting some rotation minutes as the Nets sort out their backcourt mix.

Salary-wise, there’s no change for Brooklyn beyond this season. Schroder was on an expiring contract, as is Melton. Something to keep an eye on: The Nets can flip Melton in another trade, and by virtue of acquiring him prior to December 16, they can also aggregate Melton’s $12.8 million salary in a subsequent deal.

Sean Marks is just getting started. He’s got several other veteran players who could (and should!) be on the move before the trade deadline. That’ll mean some really ugly basketball in Brooklyn to close this season, but if the Nets land a top-five draft pick, it’ll all have been worth it.

Keith SmithDecember 12, 2024

While reports, and denials of some of those reports, are flying all over the place, one thing is clear: Jimmy Butler is no longer a lock to stay with the Miami Heat. After being seen as a perfect match of player and team for several years, it now looks like a Butler-Heat divorce is inevitable.

How did we get here?

It’s been bubbling for a bit now. Butler has been somewhat injury-prone during his run with the Heat. But he was always there when Miami needed him most, leading the team to NBA Finals runs in 2020 and 2023. That was true until Butler missed last season’s playoffs and the Heat were bounced in five mostly non-competitive games against the Boston Celtics.

Following that series loss, Butler said the Celtics would have been “at home” if he had played. Butler also said that if he was on the Philadelphia 76ers, they would have beaten the New York Knicks. Heat president Pat Riley didn’t want to hear it from his star player.

“For him to say that, I thought ‘Is that Jimmy trolling or is that Jimmy serious?’” Riley said in a postseason press conference. “If you're not on the court playing against Boston or on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut and your criticism of those teams.”

Riley then challenged Butler to figure out what he wants to be for the Heat moving forward, including stating that his star player has to play more. But despite all of that, when pressed if he’d consider trading Butler, Riley kept it simple by saying, “No.”

Flashing forward a bit, Butler has wanted an extension from Miami. He’s recently said that money isn’t the most important thing, but Butler also isn’t likely to take any kind of massive team-friendly discount either. That leaves some room between Butler’s $52.4 million player option for 2025-26 and whatever his starting point would be in an extension.

However, the Heat haven’t been willing to budge much in extension talks. It doesn’t seem to be a case where Miami is lowballing Butler, as much as it seems like there just isn’t anything happen at all.

And that’s landed us here.

Earlier this week, reports broke that Butler would prefer to land with a contender if he’s traded. Two teams on his list, the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets, play in Butler’s native Texas. A third team is the Golden State Warriors, who are committed to making the most of whatever Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have left in them over the next few years.

On Wednesday, ESPN reported that the Phoenix Suns are another team that Butler would like to be traded too. That report was denied by Butler’s agent Bernie Lee in a series of social media posts, but that hasn’t kept speculation from running rampant over the day or so.

You have the history. Now, let’s dive into how a Butler trade could come together for each of his reportedly preferred destinations. This is the important part, because putting together a Butler trade isn’t an easy matter.


Let’s first understand Jimmy Butler’s contract. Here’s what it looks like:

  • 2024-25: $48,798,677
  • 2025-26: $52,413,394 (player option)
  • Total: two years, $101,212,071

Next, let’s look at where the Miami Heat sit with the luxury tax and the first and second aprons:

  • $13.9 million over the luxury tax
  • $9.2 million over the first apron
  • $1.6 million under the second apron

It’s also important to note that the Heat are not hard-capped at either the first or second apron. That means Miami can aggregate players in trades, provided the end result sees them staying under the second apron. However, because the Heat are well over the first apron, they can’t take back more salary in a deal than they send out, because that would trigger a first-apron hard cap. These factors are going to be crucial to remember as we piece together possible options.

Got all that? Good! Let’s dive in!

(Note: We’re presenting these mostly as straight-up two-team trades. There are scenarios where involving a third team can make a deal work, but we’re using a standard two-team framework to demonstrate the complexity in a Butler trade. Also: We’re only demonstrating the challenges of matching salary in a Butler deal. We’re not getting into player and draft picks values here.)

Phoenix Suns

We’re starting with the Phoenix Suns idea, because it’s the freshest rumor and simultaneously the most complex and the most simple one to tackle. Phoenix trading for Jimmy Butler is tricky because the Suns are so far over the second apron that they can’t even see it anymore ($31.5 million over). That means, Phoenix can’t take back more salary than they send out (kind of…we’ll get there momentarily!) and Phoenix also can’t aggregate salaries in a trade either.

That means any trade that sends Butler to the Suns has to send Bradley Beal, Devin Booker or Kevin Durant back to Miami. There’s simply no other way to make a deal work.

The Suns can’t aggregate salaries in trades, so they have to send one of Beal, Booker or Durant to the Heat. However, each player in that trio makes more money than Butler does. Because the Heat are already over the first apron, they can’t take back even one dollar more than what Butler makes in a straight-up deal. The Suns also can’t take back more salary than they send out, so taking back even a minimum-salary player makes this difficult to work.

So, we’re dead in the water, right? Not so fast, my friend!

In NBA trades, each side is allowed to structure a deal in the way that is most beneficial for them. This can be to create a trade exception, or sometimes simply to make a deal legal. It’s that last part where the Suns and Heat could push a trade through. 

Proposed trade:

  • Miami Heat acquire Bradley Beal
  • Phoenix Suns acquire Jimmy Butler, Josh Richardson

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

  • Butler and Richardson combined make less than Beal, so Miami is clear there.
  • Miami would trigger a second-apron hard cap, because they have aggregated players in this deal. The Heat would be roughly $3.3 million under the second apron following the trade. Thankfully, that’s more than enough room to fill out their roster to the required 14 players on standard contracts.
  • Phoenix isn’t aggregating in this deal, so there are no concerns there.
  • The Suns get around the restriction of taking back more salary than they sent out by breaking this up into two trades on their side.
    • Butler is acquired for Beal. Butler makes less than Beal, so no issue there.
    • Richardson is acquired via the Minimum Exception (which allows for any player signed via the Minimum Exception to be acquired in a trade).

(Note: This trade also works with Alec Burks or Thomas Bryant in place of Richardson, but that leaves the Heat with less space under the second apron to fill out their roster post-trade.)

Now, it’s important to note that Bradley Beal has a no-trade clause. Yes, he was reportedly interested in playing in Miami in the past, but that was with Jimmy Butler, not in replace of him. Maybe Beal would be fine with heading back east, but his no-trade clause complicates things quite a bit. He can scuttle any deal if it doesn’t work for him. Basically: Beal has control here, not the teams.

And, yes, this trade would work if you substituted Kevin Durant or Devin Booker for Beal, but it’s unlikely that the Suns would go in that direction.

One last thing: The Suns (or any team acquiring Butler) could extend Butler after this deal. He’d have to decline his player option for next season, and he’d be limited in years and dollars. Neither of those seem like major stumbling blocks, as longer deals would see Butler bumping up against the Over-38 rule and he’s already on a near-max salary as it is.

Houston Rockets

We’re going to cover the Houston Rockets next, because the path to a Butler trade isn’t that complicated for them mechanics-wise. Houston faces no meaningful apron-related restrictions and can aggregate salaries together. The Rockets have more than enough clearance under the luxury tax and the aprons to take back more salary than they send out without any worries.

Houston is sitting on nearly $41 million in expiring or pseudo-expiring (team options and non-guarantees) that they could put into a trade. The Rockets also have a bunch of interesting young players and they have draft assets to put into trade offers too.

Rockets GM Rafael Stone recently reiterated once again that he’s not looking to make a major deal this season. He wants to see what Houston does with this core before committing to adding veterans. We’ll take him at his word…for now. If the cost for Butler comes down enough, or a more appealing veteran star becomes available in the next couple of months, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Stone change his tune a bit.

And that’s fine! Stone doesn’t need to play his hand yet. He’s got a good thing going and he’s got no reason to mess around today. He’s got roughly two more months of evaluation before the deadline to figure out if the Rockets need to do anything or not.

We’re not going to present a proposed trade here, because the options are so plentiful. Play with Rockets-Heat ideas using our NBA Trade Machine until your heart’s content!

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas faces some issues in a potential Jimmy Butler trade. The Mavericks are hard-capped at the first apron (by virtue of the Klay Thompson sign-and-trade acquisition). In addition, the Mavs are only $386,752 under the first apron. That’s a pretty tight margin to work with.

On the plus side, Dallas doesn’t have any aggregation restrictions. That’s good, because the only way they can make a deal is by stacking together a whole bunch of contracts. We’re assuming Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are off-limits here, because why would you add Butler while moving one of your current stars?

Proposed trade:

  • Miami Heat acquire Daniel Gafford, Quentin Grimes, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, P.J. Washington
  • Dallas Mavericks acquire Jimmy Butler

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

  • The Dallas side works, despite the Mavericks taking on more salary than they are sending out by about $600,000. Because P.J. Washington has $500,000 in incentives in his deal, those currently count towards the first apron for the Mavericks. When you send Washington out, those incentives go with him. That creates enough space under the first-apron hard cap to push the trade through.
  • However…Dallas would be only $228,917 under the first apron post-trade. And, as you can see, Dallas would have fill three roster spots. That’s not enough space to get back into the roster requirement of having 14 players on standard contracts.

And that’s where we’ll basically cut it off for Dallas. Yes, there are other ways to make a legal trade that also lets the Mavericks fill out their roster, but they all get unlikely, unwieldy or both.

We’ll also add that there’s been some very credible reporting out of Dallas that the Mavericks aren’t ready to take on another near-max veteran with new contracts upcoming for both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the near future. Let’s just move along.

Golden State Warriors

We saved the most likely team for last, because they are easily the most complicated situation to figure out.

What makes the Warriors the most likely team to trade for Jimmy Butler? They reportedly want another on-ball creator to ease the burden on Stephen Curry and Draymond Green to key everything for their offense. Golden State is also reportedly ok with adding veterans to match Curry’s and Green’s timeline to make the most of whatever the two veteran stars have left.

What makes this the most complicated situation? Once again, it’s those pesky aprons and hard caps!

The Warriors are hard-capped at the first apron. And they have only $533,659 in wiggle room under that marker. Here’s how tight things are for the Dubs: They can’t even fill their 15th roster spot right now, because they don’t have enough space for even a prorated minimum signing under the first-apron hard cap.

On the Heat side, they aren’t hard-capped, but they are only $1,638,713 under the second apron.

Both sides can aggregate salaries, but these margins are really tight. Like pants the day after Thanksgiving tight.

You put in an extra player on the Miami side, and the deal isn’t legal on the Golden State side. You switch out one player for another on the Warriors side and it isn’t legal on the Heat side.

Because of that, we’re going to add in the Detroit Pistons as a facilitator.

Proposed trade:

  • Miami Heat acquire Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton, Andrew Wiggins from Golden State, top-55 protected second-round pick from Detroit
  • Golden State Warriors acquire Jimmy Butler
  • Detroit Pistons acquire Gary Payton II

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

  • The Heat are taking back approximately $2 million less than they are sending out. That gives them the clearance to push the trade through while not tripping over a first-apron hard cap.
  • Golden State clears about $7 million in this deal. Given the Warriors need to sign at least three players to get back into roster compliance with 14 players on standard contracts, that’s enough space to make that happen.
  • Detroit still has $10 million in cap space. They can easily absorb Gary Payton II’s deal.
  • The Pistons also have an open roster spot, which makes taking in Payton no issue.
  • Miami would have to waive a player, or they could route one of their other players somewhere else in a deal, before completing this trade.
  • Because Miami and Detroit have to connect to satisfy the “touch rules” in a multi-team trade, we have the Pistons sending the Heat a top-55 protected second-round pick to meet that requirement.

Now, we can, and should, argue about the values here. That’s not really what the exercise was about. Yes, maybe the Heat wouldn’t want Andrew Wiggins contract, but there’s no reasonable way to make this trade happen without Wiggins in the deal.

Summary

If Jimmy Butler wants to get to a contender, especially one with hard cap and apron issues, it’s not going to be easy. Fortunately for the Miami Heat, they have one of the NBA’s preeminent CBA/salary cap maestros in Andy Elisburg in their front office. If it can be done, Elisburg will find a way to make it happen.

The main point of this exercise was to show that trading Butler to the Suns, Warriors, Mavericks or Rockets (the last one is super simple) isn’t impossible. Unlikely? Maybe. Needs to involve a third team? Possibly. Tricky to make work given trade rules and satisfying value requirements on all side? Absolutely.

But it’s not impossible for Jimmy Butler to get where he wants to go. And NBA history tells us that when a star wants to be somewhere, he more often than not gets to that destination.

 

RELATED:

NBA Trade Machine

Keith SmithDecember 10, 2024

December 15 is a big day on the NBA calendar. On that date, the vast majority of the players who signed over the summer become trade-eligible. While NBA “trade season” doesn’t have an official opening day, December 15 might as well be it. Around the league, executives refer to this period as the “Early Trade Season”.

In each of the last six seasons, the NBA has seen a trade made somewhere between days and weeks of “Early Trade Season” opening:

  • January 14, 2024: Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala traded from Washington Wizards to the Detroit Pistons for Marvin Bagley III and Isaiah Livers
  • December 30, 2023: RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley traded from the New York Knicks to the Toronto Raptors for OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa.
  • January 5, 2023: Noah Vonleh traded from the Boston Celtics to the San Antonio Spurs in a salary-shedding/tax avoidance move for Boston
  • January 3, 2022: Rajon Rondo traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a deal that also involved the New York Knicks
  • January 16, 2021 (this season worked on an adjusted calendar due to starting a month later): James Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets in a deal that involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and included seven players and multiple draft picks changing hands
  • December 23, 2019: Jordan Clarkson was traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Dante Exum
  • December 17, 2018: Trevor Ariza was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Austin Rivers

Sometimes the trades involve players where the teams had to wait for the restriction to lift, and other times it’s just time for a deal to happen. Often, these deals are the result of months of trade talks that finally come to fruition in mid-to-late-December. But one thing is certain: be on the lookout for movement when “Early Trade Season” opens on Friday, December 15.

One potential reason, beyond history, to watch for an early trade is the benefit of being an early mover. The new CBA has made it harder to make deals with hard-caps and more ways than ever to trigger them. Waiting until trade deadline week (or even deadline day) to make a major move might be hard to make happen.

Because of that, you might see sellers looking to make moves before the buyer market dries up as a result of various restrictions and tight margins around the tax and the aprons. You could also see buyers make a move early to remove the chance that things get too complicated to pull off a move closer to the February 6th deadline. In addition, the 2025 NBA Draft class is loaded and teams are going to want to put themselves in position to land as high of a pick as possible.

This year, we’ve going to present the list in terms of teams to watch as early movers: either as buyers or sellers. There’s clearly some benefit to getting things done early. We’ll break down why we are focused on these teams as the ones to make an early trade.

Sellers

Brooklyn Nets

Players to watch: The entire roster

No snark intended here. The entire Brooklyn Nets roster is available in trade talks. The Nets don’t have a franchise player Thus, they haven’t made anyone untouchable. That’s the smart approach for Brooklyn.

Why might the Nets move early? They’ve already won at a better clip than ever expected. They didn’t trade to get their draft pick back to finish in the middle of the lottery. (Yes, we know ownership and Sean Marks have both said differently, but we aren’t buying it.) Expect them to pivot towards ping pong balls sooner rather than later.

In any trades they make, the Nets will be looking for a combination of young players, draft picks and salary relief. The Nets currently project to have over $40 million in cap space this summer, but that figure could easily grow to well over $60 million if Marks gets off some future salary.

One counterproposal: This doesn’t look like a quick turnaround for Brooklyn. If they can increase their return in trades by taking on some bad long-term salary, that’s worth considering. There aren’t any splashy, quick-fix free agents that will take the team from rebuilding to contender in the span of one offseason. Eating a little money to improve the young players or draft picks they get for their veterans isn’t a bad idea.

Chicago Bulls

Players to watch: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic

In reality, no one should be off limits for the Chicago Bulls. However, outside of Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, there are reasons others won’t be very involved in trade talks. Some are young and part of what Chicago is building (Matas Buzelis, Coby White, Patrick Williams), while others are coming off injuries or are veterans that won’t bring much in return (Lonzo Ball, Jevon Carter, Torrey Craig).

And let’s not pretend trading LaVine or Vucevic is a simple thing either. LaVine is coming off an injury while carrying a huge contract. Vucevic is an aging big man who doesn’t offer much defensively. But both have been outstanding offensively this year and that’s rebuilt their trade value.

LaVine looks healthy again. He’s been quick and explosive. The veteran guard is turning in one of his best all-around offensive seasons. Yes, his contract is large ($138 million through 2026-27), but LaVine is proving to be worth it. It’s unlikely that a better offensive player will be available at this deadline.

As for Vucevic, he’s having a career-year on offense. The veteran center is shooting 58.7% from the field. That would shatter his career-best mark by over six percentage points. In addition, Vucevic is hitting 47.4% of his three-pointers. Again, easily a career-best mark.

Sure, there’s going to be some drop-off coming. Vucevic is unlikely to maintain such a torrid pace. But there’s not going to be a better offensive center (and he still rebounds at a pretty good clip too) available this trade season than Vucevic.

Despite history to the contrary, the Bulls could be an early mover to accelerate moving towards a better draft pick. Chicago owes a top-10 protected pick to the San Antonio Spurs. They don’t want to be anywhere near that cutoff line come lottery time.

New Orleans Pelicans

Players to watch: Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, Zion Williamson

To be fair, Brandon Ingram has been on trade watch since last summer. We’re still here. The difference now is that Ingram recently changed agents and that’s usually done to spark movement on an extension or a trade.

Here’s the challenge: Ingram just suffered a pretty severe ankle injury. He’s expected to miss multiple weeks. That could slow things down as far as his trade market goes.

To continue to be fair, it’s probably not really likely that C.J. McCollum gets traded, and even less likely Zion Williamson does. But talks now could set the stage for a summer move. If New Orleans resets around a core of Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones and draft picks, they could move the others to hasten that reset, including whoever they get with a likely high draft pick.

It’s that likelihood of a top pick that means the Pelicans could be an early mover. They’re going to want to stay inside the top few picks in the lottery, both to help their odds and to guard against slipping down if others jump up.

New Orleans has said they want to get a look at the roster when healthy, but that doesn’t seem likely to happen this season. Because of that, look here for a big move or two before the deadline.

Portland Trail Blazers

Players to watch: Jerami Grant, Duop Reath, Anfernee Simons, Robert Williams III

The Portland Trail Blazers are probably closer to the Brooklyn Nets in terms of no one being off limits than they’d like to admit. Sure, it’d cost a decent amount to get Shaedon Sharpe or Donovan Clingan (and less to get Scoot Henderson), but neither of those guys screams untouchable franchise guy.

That being said, Portland isn’t going to trade the kids they’ve drafted in the last few years. The vets? Keep a moving company on retainer for the next couple of months.

The Trail Blazers don’t want to miss out on adding a top tier player in the 2025 NBA Draft. So, they need to get to losing. Right now, Portland is seventh in the lottery. That’s not nearly bad enough to guarantee one of the best five or six players in this draft class.

How do you move down? By trading away the vets that are keeping you competitive. Jerami Grant has the long contract, but the size of any single season isn’t overly daunting anymore, not with the cap growth that is projected. Anfernee Simons has a very tradable deal and teams are always looking for backcourt scoring and shooting. Robert Williams III has a great contract, if a team can convince themselves he’ll stay healthy.

Deandre Ayton could be movable, as he’s only got a year left. If there’s a team that is just missing a center from making a playoff run, they could convince themselves to go for Ayton for a two-year look. Matisse Thybulle is kind of in the Williams camp. He’s a great defender and an improved shooter, but he’s battling an injury.

Washington Wizards

Players to watch: Malcolm Brogdon, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole, Jonas Valanciunas

Basically, if you weren’t selected in the last two drafts, the Wizards will probably trade you. And that’s fine. This team is just starting the full rebuild process, even openly saying they are still in teardown mode.

Washington is already bad. Like, worst in the NBA by a wide margin bad. Why would they be an early mover? Simply to not miss out on the market. If buyers make moves early, options for Washington to trade their vets could dry up. That would be a major missed opportunity.

Expect lots of interest to come in Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon and Jonas Valanciunas. All three vets fill holes teams are always looking to plug at the trade deadline. And all three have reasonable, tradable contracts.

Jordan Poole is more of a wild-card. His contract doesn’t look as onerous anymore, because Poole has played quite well this season. This one might be more of an offseason move, but it wouldn’t be a shocker if a team felt like Poole could help them and made a move for him now.



Buyers

Denver Nuggets

Needs: Shooting, bench depth

The Denver Nuggets don’t have a ton to work with trade-wise. They’re over the first apron, so taking back more money than they send out isn’t possible. They do have enough wiggle room under the second apron that they can combine some salary. That’s good news, as Denver can get to about $14.7 million without touching any core rotation players.

That should be enough to get Denver in the mix for some decent upgrades for their bench. This team desperately needs more shooting. They could also simply use more depth across the board. The Nuggets might also move early just so they don’t miss out. Their apron window is tight enough that they need to strike when they can.

Golden State Warriors

Needs: Star power, playmaking

Steve Kerr leaned on his depth early on to propel the Golden State Warriors to a terrific start. Now, that’s started to flip a bit. The Warriors don’t have much star power behind Stephen Curry and they severely lack in on-ball playmaker. In addition, there’s started to be some grumbling about the expanded rotation and inconsistent roles.

The Warriors scream consolidation trade. The margins are extremely tight for Mike Dunleavy Jr. to work around though. Golden State is hard-capped at the first apron and currently have just over $500,000 to work with in space. So, making a big move is tricky, but not impossible.

Mostly, for the Warriors to land a star, they’re likely going to have to put Jonathan Kuminga and/or draft picks on the table in a deal. That’s in addition to probably having to move Andrew Wiggins to match salary.

If it’s a blockbuster trade or a smaller deal to consolidate, while adding depth, expect Golden State to trade De’Anthony Melton. Yes, that’s a little harsh as he’s out for the season, but it’s really just math. Melton’s $12.8 million salary will go a long way towards salary-matching. And because he’s on an expiring deal, the Warriors could re-sign him next summer as a free agent, even if they trade him away now.

Houston Rockets

Needs: Shooting, playmaking

The Houston Rockets are kind of a tricky one. They’re still growing with their young core. They definitely need more shooting, and could use more playmaking, but they won’t want to do that at the expense of their developing players. They’ve said as much repeatedly.

In some ways, Houston is more likely to stand pat at the deadline. Then they can survey where things land, figure out what they need after a postseason run, and make their big move this coming summer.

But if Jimmy Butler really wants to play in Houston, as per reports… Or Kevin Durant surprisingly becomes available… Or (insert veteran star here) is put on the market…

Any of those probably change the calculus for the Rockets. Houston can get to over $40 million in expiring or pseudo-expiring (options or non-guarantees) tradable salary without touching a single core rotation player. Rafael Stone also has some extra draft picks to move, including ones from the Suns and the Nets.

All of the above means that if a star is available, and the Rockets want to be involved in trading for that star, they can be. That makes them a team to watch now, closer to the deadline or next offseason.

Los Angeles Lakers

Needs: Depth, scoring, playmaking, perimeter defense

Nothing has really gone right for the Los Angeles Lakers this season, outside of Dalton Knecht showing he slipped too far in the draft. When you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, sitting in the middle isn’t acceptable. That means a shakeup is probably coming.

The Lakers struggles as a decidedly average team with little upside, combined with overflowing frustration around transaction inaction, means we’re on the clock for James to suggest a move or two is necessary. And we’re using “suggest” to be nice instead of calling it a demand, which is what it will really be.

The Lakers have the same tight margins as many others, despite not yet triggering a hard cap at either apron. But being well over the first apron, and barely below the second apron, means that Rob Pelinka is going to have to be careful with any moves he makes.

Despite that, Los Angeles has tradable salaries. The only really off-limits players will probably be James, Davis and possibly Knecht (less so for the rookie, but they aren’t just tossing him in deals either). D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, any of the minimum players and, yes, the once-untouchable Austin Reaves could all be moved.

For the Lakers, the reason to make an early move is simple: They need to climb the standings. The last two years have seen Los Angeles have to push really hard for postseason positioning, and that’s resulted in still having to work through the Play-In Tournament. If they want to avoid that this year, stacking wins sooner rather than later is important.

Orlando Magic

Needs: Shooting, playmaking, wing depth

The Orlando Magic have stayed remarkably solid since losing Paolo Banchero. But with Franz Wagner now down with the same injury as Banchero suffered, we’re approaching “three darts is too much” territory for Orlando.

That’s why the Magic are potentially a team to watch to make an early move. This team is good. They’ll be really good when they get Banchero and Wagner back, and that will happen as neither is out for the season. The defense will keep Orlando afloat for the next few weeks, but they could use more offensive punch.

Orlando has all of their own first- and second-round picks, an extra first-round pick (from Denver) and a couple of extra second-round picks. The Magic roster is also pretty well-stocked with talent, meaning rostering a whole bunch more young players might not be possible over the next few years.

In addition, Jeff Weltman can put together some packages featuring solid veterans, youngsters with upside and draft picks. That should have the Magic in position to make a move if they find one.

Here’s the challenge: Orlando has been active at the deadline in the past, but it’s generally been with smaller moves, especially after they held a fire sale in 2021.

The counter: None of the Magic teams since then have been as good as this one is. This Magic team can make a real playoff run. They need to bolster the offense around Banchero and Wagner to do that. By making an early move, Orlando could stabilize the offense until the stars return, while setting themselves up even better in the long-term.



Bonus Player to Watch

Jimmy Butler

News broke on Tuesday that the Miami Heat are open to listening to offers for Jimmy Butler. That’s not all that surprising, given Butler and the Heat have seemed to be moving in different directions since last summer. Pat Riley was critical of Butler during the offseason, while Butler was scarcely moved in his extension desires.

Is a trade coming here? Butler makes $48.8 million this season. That’s a very big number to move in-season. But it’s not impossible. For example. Houston could get there relatively easily (Miami would need to waive a bunch of players or re-route them elsewhere because it would be an imbalanced trade roster-wise). The Warriors are reportedly star-hunting, have liked Butler in the past and could put together some contracts to make a run at the veteran wing.

A player of Butler’s status appearing on the trade market juices things. Also, acquiring someone like Butler takes a bit of time to gel. That could mean we see him on the move sooner rather than later this trade season. Think of this like the OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam moves last year. Big trades that came together earlier than expected, but helped to kickstart the Raptors rebuild, while pushing the Knicks and Pacers playoff runs.

 

Keith SmithNovember 25, 2024

We got magic, good and bad
Make you happy or make you real sad
Get everything you want, lose what you had
Down here in New Orleans

Those are lyrics from “Down In New Orleans” as sung by Dr. John. And they pretty well sum up the history of the New Orleans Pelicans.

You had the high of the team relocating from Charlotte. Then Hurricane Katrina forced the team away for a couple of years.

Anthony Davis came in the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery and brought the Pelicans a playoff series win with a monster first-round upset in 2018. Then things fell apart and Davis forced a trade to the Los Angeles Lakers just one year later.

The 2019 NBA Draft Lottery delivered generational prospect Zion Williamson to ostensibly replace Davis as the franchise player. Moments of pure magic have been surrounded by Williamson being out of the lineup for long stretches.

Now, the Pelicans are facing a series of difficult decisions down in New Orleans.


Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, C.J. McCollum, Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Jordan Hawkins and Jose Alvarado.

Even with nary a center in that group, that’s a pretty good eight-man rotation.

The Pelicans have played exactly zero games with that group together. In fact, it’s been so bad, that the most minutes played by any even three-man combination of that top-eight is 87 by Ingram, Jones and McCollum.

Injuries have destroyed this team. New Orleans is 4-13 as of this writing. That’s last in the Western Conference and only slightly ahead of the Washington Wizards and Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record overall.

Essentially, after the Murray trade, it felt like the Pelicans had everything you want (minus a good, experience starting center). But as the song tells us, New Orleans can make you happy or make you real sad.

Right now, things are real sad for the Pels.

But the NBA season doesn’t stop in late-November, no matter how bad things get. There are still 65 games left as of this writing. And trade season is only a few weeks away from opening up.

Maybe those 65 games won’t really end up mattering all that much for wins, because the Pelicans are already five games out of the final spot in the Play-In Tournament. But trade season is where we could get some of that good New Orleans magic.


In an ideal world, the Pelicans would move Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum in deals that return younger players and draft assets. Sadly, we don’t live in an ideal world.

Let’s start with Ingram. New Orleans tried to move him over the summer. Nothing happened, because other teams have the same consternation about Ingram that the Pels do: He wants a max or near-max deal, and he’s not really at that level. One All-Star appearance and a bunch of injury-impacted seasons can’t get you another max deal.

Those contract desires have kept Ingram from extending with the Pelicans. And any acquiring team would have the same issues, plus whatever they had to give up in a trade to get Ingram. That’s why the veteran forward is still in New Orleans.

Ingram is having a nice season. His efficiency is a bit down, but that’s because there have been a lot of nights where his available teammates have consisted of two-way players and G League callups. Most encouraging? Ingram has been the lone Pelican to stay healthy this season. 

Ingram makes $36 million this season. That’s a big number, but it doesn’t tip into the $40-to-$50-plus million range where it gets really hard to move in-season.

The good news for New Orleans, and a potential Ingram trade, is that teams get increasingly desperate as the trade deadline closes in. Someone is going to look at Ingram and decide that they can get a scoring/playmaking wing, and that they’ll worry about the next contract later. At that point, it’s up to the Pelicans to establish a price. It’s not quite a “take whatever you can get” situation, but given Ingram’s future with the team seems to be pretty murky, a younger player and/or a draft pick or two should be enough.

McCollum is a different story. His first two seasons with the Pelicans have been better than he often gets credit for. McCollum has been efficient as a shooter and playmaker, and he does a nice job playing off-ball in an offense keyed by Ingram and Zion Williamson. There isn’t a lot of defense there, but McCollum is smart enough to be an ok help defender and director, when he’s not left exposed in pure isolation situations.

That all sounds good, right? Then you look at the contract. McCollum is on the books for $33.3 million this season and $30.6 million next season. That’s not great for an offense-first guard who is 33 years old.

Still, guard help is always in demand around the deadline. The return for McCollum won’t be as good as it will be for Ingram. However, if New Orleans can take back a swap of not-great money that maybe runs a year longer, they could extract a pick or promising young player from a guard-needy team.

But those deals aren’t the needle-movers. Not in the biggest way. To do that, the Pelicans have to consider what was once thought unthinkable.


It’s time to consider trading Zion Williamson. If not a trade, then it’s worth a quiet conversation about getting out of his contract after the season.

Yes, you read that correctly. Here’s why:

  • 24 games

  • 61 games

  • 0 games

  • 29 games

  • 70 games

  • 6 games

Those are the games played for Zion Williamson in his six-year career. That’s a total of 190 games played out of 407 possible games over six seasons. That’s 46.7% availability. In addition, Williamson has played in zero of the Pelicans 10 playoff games since he’s been in the NBA.

When healthy, Williamson is a dynamic offensive force. He’s nearly undeniable going to the rim. He shoots just well enough from the outside that teams can’t sag off him. When they do, Williamson is quick and explosive enough to still finish over a dropped defender. He’s also a very good and, importantly, very willing passer.

The rebounding has never been quite what we hoped it would be. That’s a problem. The defense is also lacking. There are still some crazy turnovers mixed in there too.

But, honestly, none of those negatives really matter all that much. It’s about the availability, or lack thereof.

Williamson is owed the following on his deal:

  • 2024-25: $36.7 million ($18.4 million guaranteed until league-wide date of January 7)

  • 2025-26: $39.4 million ($7.8 million guaranteed (assuming Williamson met weight clauses), with guarantees escalating based on games played in 2024-25)

  • 2026-27: $42.2 million (non-guaranteed, but escalating guarantees based on weight clauses and games played in 2025-26)

  • 2027-28: $44.9 million (non-guaranteed, but escalating guarantees based on weight clauses and games played in 2026-27)

That’s a lot to take in. But to make it really simple: The Pelicans can get out of Williamson’s contract after this season with somewhere between zero and $7.8 million owed to him, if he can’t get on the court for 35 of the 65 games New Orleans has left this season. Given Williamson is shelved indefinitely with a hamstring strain, hitting that games-played trigger seems unlikely.

So…do you look at trading your franchise player? Or do you simply waive him and hit the summer with somewhere between $25 million and $30 million in cap space to work with next offseason?

Simply waiving Williamson has to be somewhere close to 99% off the table. While the idea of wiping that contract off the books entirely has to have some appeal, it seems like a fairly “last resort” type of approach.

Trading Williamson? That’s not as crazy as it once seemed.

NBA teams are generally run by folks with big egos. They all believe a player who didn’t fit on one team will fit on their team. And they all believe that they can be the ones to crack the code on keeping an injury-prone player on the floor. When that player is as talented as Zion Williamson is, that belief and the willingness to take a risk is multiplied by a great margin.

If the Pelicans put Williamson on the trade block, they’re going to get offers. It may not be the four-picks and multiple-swaps blockbusters we’ve seen in the past, but New Orleans would net a healthy return for Williamson.

Trading a guy who you built this whole iteration of your team around is a very hard pill to swallow. But when that guy has played in less than half of your games over a six-year period, you have to consider taking a gulp of whatever liquid you have handy and you pop that pill.


There's been trials and tribulations
You know I've had my share
But I've climbed the mountain, I've crossed the river
And I'm almost there, I'm almost there, I'm almost there

Anika Noni Rose sung those lyrics as Princess Tiana in The Princess and the Frog. They also apply to the New Orleans Pelicans.

We’re not addressing any ideas of trading anyone like Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Jordan Hawkins or Jose Alvarado. New Orleans just traded for Murray and just re-signed Murphy. Jones has one of the most team-friendly contracts in the league. Hawkins is still on his rookie scale deal and Alvarado’s contract is so small, there’s no reason to not keep him.

It’s really the trio of Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum and Zion Williamson who you have to consider moving. The real question: Should you do it?

Ingram is probably the easiest one. Assuming you aren’t just giving him away, and the Pelicans won’t have to do that, they should move him. Unless he comes way down in his ask for his next contract, there’s no real reason Ingram should finish the season on this team.

McCollum should be moved, if you can net a positive return. That might come by taking on some onerous longer-term money, but that’s not the end of the world. If you have to pay to get off McCollum’s deal, you don’t make a deal. In that case, the Pelicans need to keep him and ride it out until he’s on an expiring contract next season.

Williamson is by far the hardest decision. Like the song Down In New Orleans says:

We got magic, good and bad
Make you happy or make you real sad

The Williamson magic is so very good. It makes you so very happy. But when he misses so many games, that’s so very bad and makes you real sad.

As painful as it is, the Pelicans have to consider moving Williamson. Let another team be swayed by the potential you see in the games that he does play. If the right deal comes along, it’s time for New Orleans to move along.

But what are they moving to? The 2025 NBA Draft is a good start. New Orleans has all of their own draft picks, including in this loaded 2025 NBA Draft. They’ve already had Lady Luck smile upon them twice in the lottery in the past. A third time would mean bringing Cooper Flagg to New Orleans.

But even if the ping pong balls don’t bounce their way, the Pelicans have already been bad enough that they could end up with Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, V.J. Edgecombe, Egor Demin, Nolan Traore or another potential franchise guy, should one emerge. The 2025 NBA Draft class is loaded with top-end talent.

It wasn’t how anyone planned for it to go. The Pelicans were supposed to be good. But they aren’t. Injuries have left them a mess. Even as some players have started to return to the lineup, the hole might be too deep. Sure, it’s worth giving this group another few weeks to see if they can spark a turnaround. But the Western Conference is unforgiving. It might be too late in New Orleans.

By having the courage to take some more lumps, New Orleans can put themselves on a path to be better than ever. It wasn’t really by choice, but the path to where we are has already been walked. We do get to choose how we move forward. And it’s time for Pelicans to choose to walk a new path.

There’s been trials and tribulations, but the New Orleans Pelicans are almost there. Like Tiana sang to us: People down there might think you’re crazy, but you can’t care. You can’t take the easy way. You gotta make it happen. You’re almost there.

 

Keith SmithNovember 05, 2024

With all due respect to Agatha Christie, the greatest mystery going right now may involve the NBA and some obscure bookkeeping. No, Steve Ballmer didn’t commit the crime in the Intuit Dome with the Tax Apron. But it doesn’t make the whole sordid mess any easier to untangle that solving the murder in an Agatha Christie novel or a game of Clue.

It’ll be no surprise to anyone that the NBA salary cap and CBA is a complicated thing to figure out. That’s only been made even more complicated by the introduction of the first and second aprons, and all the associated restrictions that come with them.

Further compounding the issues are bonuses. On their face, NBA bonuses are super simple. If a player achieved the criteria for the bonus in the previous season, the bonus is deemed “Likely” and added to the player’s cap and tax number for this season. If the player didn’t achieve the criteria for the bonus in the previous season, the bonus is deemed “Unlikely”. It is then subtracted from the player’s cap and tax number for this season if it was previously “Likely”, or it is left off of their cap and tax number for this season entirely.

Simple enough right? Not so fast, my friend! Much like Wadsworth would say in the movie version of Clue (an all-time classic everyone should see!), it’s never quite that simple.

When we start figuring out the math for the first and second apron, which function as hard caps (if so triggered), then we have to add in all of the player’s bonuses. Let’s do an example to hopefully make this easier to understand!

  • Base Salary: $25,000,000
  • Likely Bonuses: $1,000,000
  • Unlikely Bonuses: $1,000,000
  • Cap/Tax Amount: $26,000,000 (Base Salary + Likely Bonuses)
  • Tax Apron Amount: $27,000,000 (Base Salary + Likely Bonuses + Unlikely Bonuses)

Simple enough, right? Again: Not so fast, my friend! Well…with a bit less emphasis this time. The math really is that simple. But how it gets applied is far more complicated.

To paraphrase our dear Wadsworth, the answer might be yes or no, but it really depends on the question you are asking.

To go forward, we have to go back. Let’s talk about the luxury tax and the first and second aprons and the hard caps that can be incurred at them. The pertinent figures are:

  • Salary Cap: $140,588,000
  • Luxury Tax: $170,814,000
  • First Apron: $178,132,000
  • Second Apron: $188,931,000

As of today, here’s where NBA teams fall within each grouping:

  • Under the cap: 1 team
  • Over the cap, under the luxury tax: 15 teams
  • Over the tax: 5 teams
  • Over the first apron: 5 teams
  • Over the second apron: 4 teams

So, we’ve got nearly half of the league over the tax, with a third over one apron or the other. And, of those 15 team that are over the cap and under the tax, seven of those teams are within $5 million of being over the tax.

Starting to understand why these various lines matter so much?

Now that we have an idea of where each team sits, let’s talk hard caps. Within the new CBA, there are 10 ways a team can become hard-capped: six at the first apron and four at the second apron.

First Apron Hard Cap Triggers

  • Signing a player to a contract via the Non-Taxpayer MLE that is greater than allowable via the Taxpayer MLE (years, salary or both)
  • Signing a player to a contract via the Bi-Annual Exception
  • Acquiring a player via Sign-and-Trade
  • Signing a player after a buyout if that player made more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE that season
  • Using more than 100% salary-matching in a trade
  • Using a TPE that was created in the prior season

Second Apron Hard Cap Triggers

  • Signing a player via the Taxpayer MLE
  • Aggregating two or more player salaries in a trade
  • Sending out cash in a trade
  • Acquiring a player using a TPE that was created in a prior Sign-and-Trade

In addition, if a team isn’t hard-capped but is above the First or Second Apron, they cannot do any of things that would hard cap them at that respective apron.

One last reminder: If you hard-capped, you can’t exceed that hard cap by even $1.

Teams currently hard-capped at the first apron:

  • Atlanta Hawks
  • Brooklyn Nets
  • Chicago Bulls
  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Golden State Warriors
  • Houston Rockets
  • LA Clippers
  • New Orleans Pelicans
  • Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Sacramento Kings
  • Toronto Raptors
  • Washington Wizards

Teams currently hard-capped at the second apron:

  • Charlotte Hornets
  • Denver Nuggets
  • Indiana Pacers
  • New York Knicks

Got all that? If not, take some time to read it again. Because we’re about to apply all of this to three real-world, real-time NBA situations.


New York Knicks and the 13th through 15th roster spots

The Knicks are hard-capped at the second apron. New York went to great lengths to make sure that their offseason machinations didn’t trigger a first apron hard cap. Their margins are already tight enough as it is.

Following their offseason moves, the Knicks find themselves with just 12 players on standard contracts. The CBA dictates that teams can only dip below 14 players on standard contracts for 14 days at a time and up to 28 total days per season. As of this writing, New York is roughly $3.6 million below their second apron hard cap.

A non-prorated veteran minimum deal for this season was for $2.1 million. A non-prorated rookie minimum deal is for $1.2 million. As you can see, the Knicks had room to add one veteran minimum signing and one rookie minimum deal. Or they could have done a combination of two or three rookie minimum signings…kind of.

Remember how we said all of this stuff is complicated? Well, here’s another one of those pesky complications!

If a team signs a rookie or 1 Year of Service player who they did not retain draft rights for, that player actually counts against the luxury tax and the aprons at the veteran minimum or 2 Years of Service amount. If a team signs a rookie or 1 Year of Service player who they did retain draft rights for, that player counts at their actual salary amount.

So, the Knicks can’t just sign any rookie to a rookie minimum deal. That wouldn’t fit under the second apron hard cap, assuming they also sign a player to a veteran minimum.

As of this writing, there is reporting the Knicks plan to sign rookie center Ariel Hukporti to a two-year, minimum contract. Hukporti will hit the cap and tax at his prorated rookie minimum salary of just over $1 million. That’s the accounting , because he was a former Knicks draftee.

(Want some more cap nerdery? If you made it this far, you probably do! Hukporti’s two-year deal will include a team option for the 2025-26 season. That will allow the Knicks to decline that option this offseason, then sign to Hukporti to a longer deal than the two-year amount allowed by using the Minimum Exception.)

Taking it further, New York will likely sign a veteran to a prorated minimum deal too. That should land at about $1.9 million. If both of those signings take place on the last possible day to meet NBA roster requirements, the Knicks should have $580,872 in clearance under the second apron hard cap. That’s not enough to sign anyone else now, but on February 25, when there are 48 days left in the regular season, the Knicks would be able to sign a second prorated veteran minimum contract.

(Should New York make a salary-clearing trade between now and the trade deadline, all of this math changes, potentially to point of not really mattering. The Knicks can also play games with starting the 14-day clock again by waiving a player, but that can get really complicated and isn’t worth diving into now.)

Those are pretty tight margins, but they’re workable. A lot of teams will carry only 14 players on standard contracts until we get past the trade deadline and into buyout season.

As far as trades for New York the rest of this year? Keep in mind what we called out triggering a second apron hard cap. The Knicks are so tight to that figure, that making deals could be really difficult for the rest of this league year.


Dejounte Murray’s Bonuses and The New Orleans Pelicans Tricky Tax Timidity

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of two NBA franchises who have never paid the luxury tax. (The other is the Charlotte Hornets, for those interested in very niche NBA trivia.) Given that they aren’t exactly a title contender this year, the Pelicans probably aren’t jumping into paying the tax this season either. There’s also a matter of getting an $18-20 million check as part of the tax distribution if you aren’t a taxpaying team. 

But here’s the challenge: New Orleans is currently about $3.5 million over the luxury tax line.

Now, that’s not a big deal. Last year, the Pelicans were over the tax, but salary-dumped Kira Lewis Jr. at the trade deadline and ended up dodging the tax. It’s fair to expect a similar type of move this season. Waiving Jaylen Nowell before his contract guarantees, plus salary-dumping a minimum deal (Javonte Green, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Daniel Theis) will get them there.

But the Pelicans might have more wiggle room than it currently looks like. This is where Dejounte Murray’s bonuses come into play.

Dejounte Murray has a lot of bonuses in his contract. They add up to early $2.1 million in bonuses in fact. As of right now, almost $700,000 of those bonuses are considered likely. That bring Murray’s cap and tax hit to $29,517,134.

But, not is all that is seems here. Because of course it isn’t, right?

Some of Murray’s likely bonuses are tied to him playing 65 games. If he doesn’t hit 65 games played, the bonus flips over to unlikely. And, given that Murray is out for several more weeks, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that he’ll hit the 65 games played marker.

This ends up mattering for the Pelicans, because even though his cap/tax hit of $29.5 million won’t adjust until after the season, that adjustment will factor into the tax calculation for New Orleans. So, removing nearly $700,000 in bonuses brings the Pelicans that much closer to dodging that tax.

That means as New Orleans makes their rest-of-season moves, they’ll probably working with Murray at a slightly different tax figure. That’s because he’s probably going to miss out on most of his bonuses for this season.

On the flip side, towards the first apron, at which the Pelicans are hard-capped, he counts for the full amount of his contract, including any likely AND unlikely bonuses. So, that would make trading Murray a potentially trick situation. But the Pelicans aren’t very likely to move a player they just paid a heavy price to acquire.

Instead, let’s look at this situation through a different lens entirely.


Cam Johnson and The Apron Aggregation Anomaly

When it comes to trading players whose unlikely bonuses can cause an issue, there’s perhaps no better example than that of Brooklyn Nets wing Cam Johnson.

Let’s start with a simple question: Would the Nets trade Johnson?

The answer: Yes.

Brooklyn is just starting a rebuild. While Johnson’s contract is a fair value and declines from year to year, it runs for three years. That might be longer than a rebuilding Nets team really wants. And, arguably most importantly, Johnson has solid trade value. Teams are always looking for shooting with size and Johnson brings that. If Brooklyn can get assets for Johnson in the form of draft picks and younger talent, they’ll be interested.

So, what’s the challenge with trading Johnson? Again, those pesky bonuses come into play.

Johnson’s current cap/tax hit is $23,625,000. However, because of his bonuses, his apron hit sits at $27,000,000. That’s a difference of $3,375,000. While not a massive amount, it’s one that makes acquiring Johnson tricky for a team dealing apron issues.

For example, one popular NBA Trade Machine proposal features Johnson headed to the Los Angeles Lakers. In order to acquire Johnson in any reasonable trade construction, the Lakers have to aggregate salaries. That means they trigger a second apron hard cap. As it stands today, Los Angeles is only a scant $45,001 under the second apron. That’s almost no wiggle room, and there’s certainly not enough to bring in Johnson, given he’d account for the additional $3,375,000 towards the apron.

You can mess around with different combinations, but it gets tricky to find a match that makes sense for both the Nets and the Lakers. Given more than half the league is dealing with some form of hard cap, and a few more would be in trouble if they triggered one, finding a team that can easily absorb an additional $3.375 million is going to be somewhat difficult.

By no means does this make Johnson untradable. It just means that teams will have to get creative to find a workable deal, and may need to rope in a third team to get the trade done.


For years, bonuses have been a part of NBA contracts. The most altruistic reason to use them is as true incentives to spur better performance.

Sometimes teams use them to create additional cap or tax room. In 2019, the Brooklyn Nets were super creative in manufacturing some additional cap space by giving Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving some easily achievable, but initially unlikely, bonuses. The Nets gave both players bonuses built around games played, which they knew they would eventually hit, given they were both coming off seasons with missed time.

Teams have also used bonuses as a way to give players a chance at more money, but without doing it directly. Sometimes this is for cap-manipulation reasons, while other times it’s just to give the player something to work for, while still feeling like they got a bigger deal. And, yes, sometimes it’s to win the press conference (or maybe win the tweet?) by putting an artificially larger number out into the world than the player will actually earn.

However, we’re starting to see a change in the tide when it comes to bonuses. This offseason, 16 players signed deals with bonuses attached. However, some of those were carryover situations in extensions. That’s a bit lower than usual. And there’s a chance that the number of players signing deals with incentives will lessen even further in the future.

“For as long as we think the apron might be an issue, we’re probably going to avoid bonuses,” a Western Conference GM told Spotrac. “It simply creates an unnecessary hamstring when you are trying to build out your roster.”

An Eastern Conference executive thinks the bonus issue is going to made trades too hard for teams dealing with a hard cap.

“Look, no one feels bad for you if you trigger a hard cap. You did it to yourself. But the reality is that the idea of a hard cap is to make it…well…hard to make moves. And it works!

But when it comes to bonuses, the hard cap and making a trade, that’s an extra level of difficulty. I likened it to playing a game, but you aren’t allowed to shoot threes. Can you win? Sure. But is it harder? No doubt. It’s just takes a lot more work to get done,” he said.

A longtime agent told Spotrac they’d be fine if bonuses became a thing of the past.

“Pay guys up front. Stop playing games. I get it. I really do. But it’s nice to see some of these rules coming back on those who think they are the smartest guys in the room,” the agent said.

Bonuses aren’t gone. Some deals that run out for several more years have them. And there will always be a real reason to put them in a deal. But now, because of the aprons and the ease with which a team can become hard-capped, teams have an extra level of consideration when adding bonuses into signings and making trades that didn’t fully exist previously.

When trade season unofficially opens in mid-December, don’t be surprised if you hear teams and players bemoaning the issues the aprons and hard caps are causing. As we approach the trade deadline, don’t be surprised if those moans and groans turn into full-blown loud complaints. This is especially true if a deal gets scuttled because fitting in a bonus under a hard cap is too difficult. And, remember, unlike a trade bonus, a player can’t waive a contract bonus to make a trade work.

 

RELATED:

NBA Apron Tracker

NBA Tax Tracker

NBA Trade Machine

Keith SmithNovember 04, 2024

The 2024 NBA offseason and early-season transaction period is behind us. Minus a handful of signings here and there, NBA transactions will go dormant until trade season opens up in mid-to-late-December. With extensions largely completed (for now!) and 2025-26 rookie scale team option decisions made, it’s time to look forward!

The 2025 NBA offseason looks like a weird one. The new media rights money will start hitting, but the NBA and NBPA agreed to cap the cap growth at no more than 10% from one year to the next. That means the cap is projected to go from $140.6 million this season to just over $154.6 million for next season. That $14 million jump is a big one, but it’s not going to result in a whole of cap space around the NBA.

The reason for that is teams have gotten really aggressive in recent years with extensions. More and more players are forgoing free agency and taking the certainty of extensions. This past year, the only big-name All-Star to change teams via direct free agency was Paul George. A few others moved via sign-and-trades and standard trades, but free agency itself wasn’t how stars moved.

That’s likely to continue in the summer of 2025. As you’ll see, there’s not a lot of cap space projected to be out there this summer. Also, the free agent class projects to be devoid of stars. Most of the All-Star level guys are good bets to re-sign with their current teams, or to extend before free agency opens.

However, that doesn’t mean having spending power is completely useless. With the Apron Era fully upon us, NBA teams are embracing exceptions in different ways. This summer, there will be some value signings available, simply because the means to overpay those players as free agents aren’t available. That should make for an active summer of role player movement, in addition to the usual handful of big trades.

With all that said, here’s how things look today for 2025 spending power around the NBA. This can, and will, change throughout the season. Teams will make decisions about the future up through the trade deadline. That will create more spending power for some, while using it up for others.

(Note: These projections are made using the noted cap and tax figures above, draft pick cap holds based on projected standings and a projection on all option and guarantee decisions by players and teams. No extensions or trades have been projected. We will call out where those types of situations could impact a team projection.)

Cap Space Teams – 2 Teams

  1. Brooklyn Nets: $40.7 million

  2. Washington Wizards: $27.5 million

Two teams project to have cap space in the summer of 2025. That’s it. (For reference: I’ve been doing cap space projections for well over a decade and have never had a year-out projection with just two teams.) That’s how much guaranteed money is already on the books for next season around the NBA.

Brooklyn gets to north of $40 million fairly easily. They let all of their free agents walk, at least initially, minus restricted free agents Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe. If Dorian Finney-Smith opts out – a true 50-50 decision – the Nets will have nearly $55 million in cap space. And, of course, this roster is a work-in-progress. So, don’t be surprised if Brooklyn sheds more money, or possibly takes some more on for future assets. Sean Marks is just getting started with his second rebuild.

Washington is still in the “deconstruction phase” with their roster, per their own front office. That means this projection is pretty tenuous. The Wizards could move off some money, with a whole bunch of tradable veterans. But that might come via taking on some onerous money, while adding more draft capital and young talent. For now, the flexibility is what really matters for the Wizards.

Swing Cap Space and Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 2 Teams

  1. Charlotte Hornets

  2. Utah Jazz

It’s unlikely either of these teams will go the cap space route. Charlotte has players they’d like to re-sign and keep on their roster (Tre Mann, Cody Martin, Nick Richards), which will likely keep them from having cap space.

In order for the Jazz to get to having some cap space, they’d have to move John Collins or he’d have to opt out. Given the landscape this summer, Collins won’t recoup the $25.6 million he’ll make on his option. So, leave him on the Utah books for now. In addition, the Jazz project to have three first-round picks, including the potential first overall selection. That’s going to add decent chunk of change to the cap sheet too.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 10 Teams

  1. Atlanta Hawks

  2. Chicago Bulls

  3. Detroit Pistons

  4. Houston Rockets

  5. LA Clippers

  6. Memphis Grizzlies

  7. Oklahoma City Thunder

  8. Portland Trail Blazers

  9. San Antonio Spurs

  10. Toronto Raptors

As per usual, this group features a mix of title contenders, playoff contenders and rebuilding teams.

For the rebuilding teams, the Bulls are still digging out from underneath some signings and extensions they made when they were chasing contention. The cap sheet is cleaning up, but not quite there yet. And a new deal for Josh Giddey is looming too.

The Pistons took on a good chunk of money this past offseason in some of their deals. They’ve got pretty good flexibility overall, but this summer doesn’t project to be one of big spending in Detroit.

Portland is still dealing with the fallout from the Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday trades. They took on more money than was desirable in those deals, but it’s not the end of the world. This situation is also pretty volatile, as the Blazers have a lot of veterans who could be on the move via trades. Keep an eye on Portland.

Some might be surprised to see the Spurs not in the cap space group. San Antonio projects to have three first-round picks in the upcoming draft. All of them currently project to land between the fifth and fifteenth pick. That, combined with previous deals, eats up the Spurs cap space.

Toronto used up any chance of having cap space when they extended Scottie Barnes, re-signed Immanuel Quickley and extended Kelly Olynyk. No complaints though, as those were all solid signings. The good news is that the Raptors have some money coming off the books, and that should leave room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Hawks, Rockets, Clippers and Grizzlies are all in roughly the same spots. All are would-be playoff teams. The first three are still retooling their rosters, but should have enough room to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE. The Grizzlies are mostly there with their roster, but have so few spots to fill, that they should be fine using the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Then we have the Thunder. The big spending of last summer won’t be repeated, but that doesn’t mean Oklahoma City doesn’t have flexibility. One of the NBA’s best teams is young, talented and the front office has a pretty clean cap sheet and still has a whole bunch of draft picks to trade. Good luck to the other 29 teams!

Swing Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 5 teams

  1. Indiana Pacers

  2. Los Angeles Lakers

  3. New Orleans Pelicans

  4. Orlando Magic

  5. Philadelphia 76ers

All playoff contenders in this group, with a couple hopeful of being more than that.

The Pacers have been pretty conservative with spending over the years. Recently, Indiana has been aggressive about extending and re-signing their own players. If that continues with Myles Turner in free agency this summer, the Pacers will be closer to having the Taxpayer MLE than the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Lakers created some flexibility by declining the third-year rookie scale option for Jalen Hood-Schifino. With LeBron James newfound willingness to help Los Angeles create some spending power, don’t be surprised if they maneuver to having the Non-Taxpayer MLE. The one caveat: If the Lakers make a big in-season trade this year, that could wipe out any future flexibility.

New Orleans has never paid the tax in franchise history. They probably won’t start that this year, as they are close enough to dodging the tax line to do so. That said, working right around the margins will continue for at least another year. Then things should free up a bit in 2026. Keep an eye on what happens with Brandon Ingram here. That will decide a lot of where the Pelicans are headed cap-/tax-wise.

The Magic locked into a whole bunch of long-term money this past offseason. That’s going to have them dancing around the luxury tax line and possibly even living in between the tax aprons. Having some team options on the books could give them the flexibility to drop salary and open up the Non-Taxpayer MLE, but they seem pretty content with the roster right now.

The Sixers pulled off the rare feat of using cap space and ending up as a tax team this season. That’s how much having Tyrese Maxey on a low cap hold meant to Philadelphia. Next year, they could create some additional wiggle room by moving off a couple of non-guaranteed deals. But the more likely path is that Daryl Morey will swing a trade or two this season to take on some money into next year. That’ll put the 76ers in Taxpayer MLE range or maybe even into second apron range.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 2 teams

  1. Golden State Warriors

  2. Sacramento Kings

The Warriors and Kings are similar spots. Both did a lot of maneuvering this past offseason and that’s got them with a good amount of money on the books, with more likely getting added soon.

Golden State has some key free agents in Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton, Kevon Looney and Gary Payton II. If they re-sign those guys, especially Kuminga, they’ll be back over the tax and nearing the second apron.

The Kings issue is more about the number of roster spots that they have to fill. Half of the Sacramento roster is going to hit free agency this summer. That likely includes Keon Ellis, who the Kings would be smart to decline their team option for, so that they can control the process with Ellis as a restricted free agent. With six players making between $11 million and $44 million, that doesn’t leave a ton of extra spending power.

Swing Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Second Apron Teams – 6 teams

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers

  2. Dallas Mavericks

  3. Denver Nuggets

  4. Miami Heat

  5. Milwaukee Bucks

  6. Minnesota Timberwolves

The good news? All of these teams are playoff teams. The bad news? They are all really, really expensive playoff teams.

For the Cavs, this is mostly about what happens with Caris LeVert. If he’s re-signed to a fair-value deal, Cleveland will be a second apron team. If he’s not, they might have just enough room to squeeze in a signing with the Taxpayer MLE.

Dallas is dependent on what happens with Kyrie Irving. If he opts out and pushes for a max or near-max deal, the Mavs will be near the second apron. If Irving opts in, or re-signs for a similar salary with additional years tacked on, Dallas might be able to get to the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Denver is in the same spot they’ve been in before. They can use the Non-Taxpayer MLE to fill one of their couple of open roster spots. But let’s not give out any second-year player options this time, ok?

Miami is all about Jimmy Butler. If he’s back, the Heat are dancing around the first and second aprons. If Butler moves on, then Miami could have some unexpected flexibility. This is a pretty massive summer for the Heat, both in the short- and long-term.

As for Milwaukee and Minnesota, they may be able to dip under the second apron. If one of Khris Middleton or Brook Lopez is gone, the Bucks will have a bunch of flexibility. If they’re both back, they’ll be over the second apron. This is very much a year-to-year thing in Milwaukee right now.

The Wolves are in an interesting spot. Rudy Gobert declining his option and extending freed up about $10 million in flexibility. We project Julius Randle to opt in (he won’t have big offers this summer with a lack of cap space around the league), but Minnesota still has to re-sign Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. If they do that, they’ll be up over the second apron again.

Second Apron Teams (no signing exceptions) – 3 Teams

  1. Boston Celtics

  2. New York Knicks

  3. Phoenix Suns

This group got halved from last year’s projections. The combination of the cap going up and some money coming off the books took four to five teams to within range of dodging the second apron.

Boston is all but guaranteed to be a second apron team. They’ll probably even challenge Phoenix for the largest payroll in the league. The big questions: Is Al Horford back? And how much will he cost the Celtics in salary plus tax penalties, if he is?

Phoenix is in the same spot they’ve been in for a bit now. Super expensive without much recourse to not be super expensive. But this past summer’s moves made more sense than the first time the Suns were in this spot. That signals Phoenix may be figuring out how to live as a second apron team.

That leaves the Knicks, who are in a really interesting spot. They’ve got nearly $195 million committed for just nine players. That leaves six roster spots to fill, which means they’ll push over the second apron. The real intrigue comes with how far they’ll push over. Will they re-sign Precious Achiuwa to bank some tradable salary, if for no other reason? Beyond that, trades (made within the host of second-apron restrictions) and signing a host of players to minimum deals is what we can expect in New York this summer.

Keith SmithOctober 22, 2024

NBA Opening Night is here! It doesn’t come with quite the fanfare of Major League Baseball’s Opening Day or NFL Kickoff Weekend, but the NBA is back. The Boston Celtics will get their rings and raise a record 18th banner to the rafters. Then, the chase for the 2025 title is on.

With the regular season upon us, NBA teams have finalized their opening night rosters. The league’s financial landscape has never been more complex. The days of being under the cap, over the cap or over the tax are long gone. Now, we have first and second aprons, and 10 different ways to become hard-capped at those aprons.

But don’t fret! We’ve got you covered with where each team stands with the 2024-25 NBA season tipping off.

Team Salary Landscape

There are now five buckets that teams fall in, depending on how much team salary they are carrying. We’ll run through them in order of most to least expensive.

Second Apron Teams

Boston Celtics: $7.6 million over the second apron

Milwaukee Bucks: $6.5 million over the second apron

Minnesota Timberwolves: $17.2 million over the second apron

Phoenix Suns: $31.5 million over the second apron

The full weight of the second apron has come to bear this season. After a transitional year, which saw only some of the second apron restrictions kick in, the NBA’s most expensive teams are handcuffed like never before.

The good news for Boston, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Phoenix? All are title contenders. The bad news? None of this foursome has the ability to add much throughout the year. At least not without subtracting key rotation players to do so.

First Apron Teams

Denver Nuggets: $5.6 million over the first apron

Los Angeles Lakers: $10.8 million over the first apron

Miami Heat: $9.2 million over the first apron

New York Knicks: $7.2 million over the first apron

Philadelphia 76ers: $4.6 million over the first apron

The first apron is only slightly less restrictive than the second apron. It’s a little easier for these teams to make trades and the like, but only a little easier.

Much like the second apron group, the first apron teams all fancy themselves as title contenders. That’s definitely true of the Nuggets, Knicks and Sixers. Lakers and Heat? We’ll see if their veteran stars can drag them there one more time.

Luxury Tax Teams

Cleveland Cavaliers: $1.7 million over the luxury tax

Dallas Mavericks: $5.4 million over the luxury tax

Golden State Warriors: $5.8 million over the luxury tax

LA Clippers: $2.5 million over the luxury tax

New Orleans Pelicans: $1.6 million over the luxury tax

This group is a mixed bag of good teams. The Mavericks are title contenders. The Cavaliers are hopeful of climbing into the contender tier. The Warriors, Clippers and Pelicans are part of a large group of teams battling for playoffs spots in a deep Western Conference.

The challenge for everyone in this group but the Cavs? They are all hard-capped at the first apron. That’s going to make adding to their roster in-season a difficult task.

Over The Cap Teams

Atlanta Hawks: $1.3 million under the luxury tax

Brooklyn Nets: $2.1 million under the luxury tax

Charlotte Hornets: $10.4 million under the luxury tax

Chicago Bulls: $4.5 million under the luxury tax

Houston Rockets: $10.5 million under the luxury tax

Indiana Pacers: $3.2 million under the luxury tax

Memphis Grizzlies: $3.9 million under the luxury tax

Oklahoma City Thunder: $11.5 million under the luxury tax

Orlando Magic: $20.5 million under the luxury tax

Portland Trail Blazers: $3.7 million under the luxury tax

Sacramento Kings: $3.7 million under the luxury tax

San Antonio Spurs: $21.1 million under the luxury tax

Toronto Raptors: $9.3 million under the luxury tax

Utah Jazz: $27.2 million under the luxury tax

Washington Wizards: $11.9 million under the luxury tax

As per usual, the NBA’s largest group of teams is living over the cap, but under the tax. This group is a mix of playoff contenders and rebuilding squads, outside of the Thunder, who are a title contender.

This is where the moves will happen. When there are trades in-season, expect these teams to be involved, either as direct parties or as helpful facilitators.

Under The Cap Team

Detroit Pistons: $10.2 million under the cap

The days of multiple teams hitting the season with oodles of cap space available are over. Teams have to hit the salary floor now, or they miss out on the end-of-year luxury tax disbursement. The Pistons have hit the floor, but enter the season as the league’s lone cap space team.

Detroit is also sitting on an open roster spot (more on that in a bit). That means they’ll be everyone’s favorite third team in complicated trades, especially between hard-capped teams (more on that in a bit too!). That should have new front office boss Trajan Langdon ready to pick off additional assets for his still-rebuilding team.


Hard Caps

Over half of the NBA is facing a hard cap at either the first or second apron. With 10 ways to become hard-capped now, teams are facing more roadblocks than ever to navigate around as they build their rosters. For each hard-capped team, we’ll break down which apron they are hard-capped at, and how much wiggle room they have.

First Apron Hard-Capped Teams

Atlanta Hawks: $5.4 million under the first apron

Brooklyn Nets: $5.2 million under the first apron

Chicago Bulls: $9.5 million under the first apron

Dallas Mavericks: $386,752 under the first apron

Golden State Warriors: $533,659 under the first apron

Houston Rockets: $15.2 million under the first apron

LA Clippers: $4.9 million under the first apron

New Orleans Pelicans: $4.4 million under the first apron

Oklahoma City Thunder: $17.4 million under the first apron

Sacramento Kings: $8.6 million under the first apron

Toronto Raptors: $10.5 million under the first apron

Washington Wizards: $11.6 million under the first apron

For some of these teams, the hard cap doesn’t really matter. The rebuilding teams aren’t going to end up in range for it to really matter.

For others, like the Mavs and Warriors, they are working up against some extremely tight margins. Golden State doesn’t even have enough room to fill their open 15th roster spot at the moment. The Clippers and Pelicans are somewhat tight to apron too. On the flip side, the Thunder continue to have incredible flexibility for a title contender. If there is a deal Oklahoma City wants to make, they can do so without any real hard cap challenges creeping in.

Second Apron Hard-Capped Teams

Charlotte Hornets: $28.5 million under the second apron

Denver Nuggets: $5.2 million under the second apron

Indiana Pacers: $18.9 million under the second apron

New York Knicks: $3.6 million under the second apron

For the Hornets and Pacers, their second apron hard cap is of no consequence. They won’t get anywhere close enough for it to matter.

The Nuggets have a bit of wiggle room, should they want to make an in-season trade.

As for the Knicks…it’s a challenge. New York did a wonderful job navigating all things CBA this summer to avoid a first apron hard cap. But they’ve still put themselves right up against the second apron. Right now, the Knicks have three open roster spots. They only have enough room to fill two of those spots, with one veteran minimum signing and one rookie minimum signing (and that has to be a player the team held/holds the draft rights for). That’s pretty tight to work around. Expect the Knicks to push the boundaries of how long they can go without 14 players on standard deals (up to two weeks at a time or for 28 total days per season) to try to create any form of additional wiggle room.


Open Roster Spots

Recently, we wrote about The NBA’s Vanishing 15th Roster Spot. To start the season, there are 15 standard roster spots open around the NBA. There are also two open two-way roster spots.

Open Standard Roster Spots

Boston Celtics: 1

Cleveland Cavaliers: 1

Detroit Pistons: 1

Golden State Warriors: 1

Houston Rockets: 1

Indiana Pacers: 1

Memphis Grizzlies: 1

Miami Heat: 1

New Orleans Pelicans: 1

New York Knicks: 3

Philadelphia 76ers: 1

Phoenix Suns: 1

Sacramento Kings: 1

We already covered what’s going on with the Warriors and Knicks. For the Celtics, Cavaliers, Heat, Pelicans, Sixers and Suns, this is about managing their luxury tax situation. These teams likely won’t fill their open spots until we’re deeper into the season.

The Pistons, Rockets, Pacers, Grizzlies and Kings are likely waiting for the right player. The latter four teams are also pursuing playoff spots, so keeping some additional flexibility is a smart play. And the Pistons could use their open spot to facilitate in-season trades using their remaining cap space, as mentioned earlier.

Open Two-Way Roster Spots

Detroit Pistons: 1

Orlando Magic: 1

These spots will likely get filled sooner, rather than later. Detroit was rumored to be signing Alondes Williams, but as of this writing that signing hasn’t gone official. Orlando may wait to see if any players shake loose early in the season, or if a G League player pops when that season starts in a couple of weeks.


Offseason Spending

For all of the consternation that the “New CBA is ruining the league and no one wants to spend money” teams doled out record sums this 2024 NBA Offseason.

Between free agent contracts, rookie signings and extensions, team committed to nearly $7.5 billion (yes, billion with a “B”) in new money. Of that amount, roughly $6.7 billion is fully guaranteed.

Last season, teams committed to almost $5.9 billion in new money, with $5.5 billion being guaranteed.

That’s an additional $1.6 billion of new money that was introduced into the system this offseason. And the new media rights deals don’t even start until the 2025-26 season.

The NBA is as healthy as it has ever been. The league is fairly wide open, with multiple teams fancying themselves as title contenders. More money is being spent then ever. And expansion is right around the corner. Life is good for all parties involved in the NBA.

Enjoy the season everyone!

 

Keith SmithOctober 18, 2024

NBA teams are wrapping up the preseason, with the regular season just days away.

NBA preseason doesn’t come with the excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller rosters and more guaranteed money mean that NBA squads are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots are playing out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going team by team and looking some of the most interesting battles to monitor as we close in on the regular season. We previously covered the Southwest DivisionNorthwest Division and Pacific Division out west. Then we headed east to cover the Southeast Division and Central Division. Now, we wrap up with a look at the Atlantic Division teams!

Boston Celtics

Big Rotation While Kristaps Porzingis Is Out

The Celtics are going to be without Kristaps Porzingis for the first couple of months of the season. Most expect Boston’s starting center to return sometime around Christmas or New Year’s Day. That means Joe Mazzulla has to figure out how to cover for Porzingis for the first 30 games or so.

Al Horford is back, and he’s the easy answer. Horford started 33 regular season games last season, then 15 of 19 playoff games when Porzingis was out. But it might not be that simple.

Boston knows how important Horford is to their team. They liked having him in a more limited role during last regular season. That kept him fresh and really productive throughout the team’s title run.

In the preseason, the Celtics started Luke Kornet alongside the other set starters. That may carry over to the regular season. That would keep Horford in a reserve role, where he’ll play around 25 minutes or so per game. Kornet has proven perfectly capable of being a productive player since joining the Celtics.

Horford also isn’t going to play back-to-back games this year. That means Boston will need more than Kornet. That’s where Xavier Tillman Sr. and Neemias Queta come in.

Tillman had a rough start to his Celtics tenure. He was injured when he arrived in Boston, then he sadly lost his father very unexpectedly. But the Celtics saw enough in Tillman to re-sign him this summer. He’ll be a part of things, especially if the corner three he’s been flashing proves to be a real thing.

Queta is a big bundle of energy whenever he hits the floor. He’s chaotic, but that’s valuable for a team where the other bigs play a more stable style. Queta is going to get into the mix simply because of his all-out hustle.

Mazzulla is going to have to piece it together until the playoffs. Even after Porzingis returns, the Celtics aren’t going to push him or Horford very hard. Boston’s goal is to be playing in June. That means getting a lot from Kornet, Tillman and Queta from mid-October through mid-April.

Brooklyn Nets

Forward Rotation

Brooklyn is leaning hard into rebuilding. They traded Mikal Bridges for a bundle of picks. They made an associated deal to reacquire their own 2025 first-round pick from the Houston Rockets. And Sean Marks isn’t done dealing either.

As it stands, the Nets backcourt looks fairly set…at least for now. Dennis Schroder and Cam Thomas look like the starters. Some mix of Ben Simmons (he’s healthy and looks good so far), Shake Milton and maybe Keon Johnson and Dariq Whitehead will handle the backup minutes.

Center is similarly settled, at least when everyone is healthy. Nic Claxton starts, Day’Ron Sharpe backs him up and Noah Clowney gets the remaining minutes at the five.

It’s the forward group that is a jumbled mess. Cameron Johnson has a long-term contract, and he’s a good shooter/scorer, so he’s going to be a starter. Dorian Finney-Smith is one of the team’s best defenders, and the Nets wants to keep his trade value high, so he’ll start too.

That leaves Bojan Bogdanovic (who Brooklyn wouldn’t mind boosting the trade value for), Trendon Watford (always productive when he gets minutes), Ziaire Williams (the kind of no-risk flyer that has paid off Marks in the past), Jalen Wilson (closed last season strong) and Simmons and Clowney for backup minutes.

That’s eight players who should see some minutes at the forward spots. Even if you take Simmons and Clowney out of the mix, that leaves six guys. Injuries will leave some guys unavailable at time, so it’ll probably sort itself out. But when everyone is available, new coach Jordi Fernandez has decisions to make.

It’s also worth noting that what will ultimately break up this logjam is Marks making a trade or two. It’s a decent bet that Finney-Smith and Bogdanovic won’t finish the season with the Nets. And it’s possible that Johnson – who other teams like quite a bit – could be on the move too.

New York Knicks

Bench Minutes

The Knicks had a big summer. The trades for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns were blockbuster deals that came from out of nowhere. While those were two terrific acquisitions, those trades did sap New York of a lot of their depth.

Bridges and Towns will join Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart in a very good starting lineup. Behind them, Miles McBride and Precious Achiuwa will have key rotation roles. Then…who knows?

Mitchell Robinson will play – and possibly start in a jumbo lineup that pushes Hart to the bench – when he’s healthy. But that won’t be until some point in January. Until then, Jericho Sims will likely see the backup center minutes behind Towns.

Landry Shamet (coming off an Exhibit 9 training camp deal) looked like he was going to earn minutes as a backup wing. That’s now in question due to a shoulder injury suffered late in the preseason. As of this writing, we don’t have any clarity on how much time Shamet might miss. That makes him even cracking the regular season roster a question mark.

In the course of adding Bridges and Towns, the Knicks find themselves hard-capped at the second tax apron. As of now, New York is about $3.6 million under that second apron with three open roster spots. That means they can only fill one with a veteran minimum deal. That was going to be Shamet, but if he’s out for a lengthy period, the Knicks can’t keep him. They simply don’t have the depth to ride out a long-term absence.

The bench is going to be a series of test-and-adjust trials for Tom Thibodeau. We can make all the jokes about how he’ll just play the starters 45 minutes per night, but Thibodeau needs to cobble together some form of bench. They’ll get there, but it might be a little bumpy until the Knicks figure it out.

Philadelphia 76ers

Wing/Forward Rotation

The Sixers are stacked at center with Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond. It’s hard to find many starter-backup combinations at the five that are better than that one.

Philadelphia also has a bunch of good ballhandling options. Tyrese Maxey is a star. Kyle Lowry is fading, but still getting it done. Eric Gordon remains an efficient scorer/shooter. Reggie Jackson has been a capable backup for years. Ricky Council IV and Jared McCain are good developmental players. And, of course, Paul George, Kelly Oubre Jr. and even Caleb Martin will play as bigger guard options too.

That leaves Nick Nurse with figuring out his wings and forwards. George, Oubre and Martin are all probably going to start. That’s pretty good, even if one of them will have to masquerade a bit as a four. But George and Martin can both handle that, as they have in the past.

It’s behind them where things get a little complicated. Guerschon Yabusele is returning to the NBA to give the 76ers a true power forward. K.J. Martin is super athletic and motived to prove he’s more than just a tradable salary. But that’s about it for forward depth.

Philadelphia can afford to go a bit smaller at the four, because Embiid and Drummond will hold down the paint. Nurse has also been really good at making funky, non-traditional lineups work. There are only a couple of teams who might be able to hurt Philadelphia in their likely one-big, one-ballhandler, three-wing lineup construction. And the Sixers will be able to give it back just as good in those looks. That’s the bet Daryl Morey made when building this roster.

Toronto Raptors

Wing/Guard Rotation

Rebuilding is no longer a dirty word in Toronto. No better a source than Masai Ujiri said so. As such, the Raptors roster is a bit unbalanced right now.

Jakob Poeltl, Kelly Olynyk and Chris Boucher have the big spots handled. Scottie Barnes will start and play most of his minutes as a do-everything, playmaking power forward.

Barnes sliding up to the four full time might be natural progression, but it’s been hastened by the rest of the Raptors roster. This team has a lot of guards and wings.

RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley are both going to start alongside Barnes and Poeltl. Quickley will be the team’s point guard, while Barrett will fill one wing spot. That other perimeter spot is wide open.

Bruce Brown would have been in the mix, but he’s out to open the season after a knee cleanup surgery. Rookie guard Ja’Kobe Walter suffered a preseason shoulder injury and will also be out to open the year.

Even after taking Brown and Walter out of the mix, the Raptors still have Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, Davion Mitchell and 2024 second-rounders Jonathan Mogbo and Jamal Shead.

Dick looks like he’s in line to start. After a rocky start, Dick shot 39% from behind the arc over the season’s last four months. That’s the kind of shooting this team is begging for around Barnes, Barrett and Quickley as playmakers.

Agbaji is at a bit of a crossroads. He flashed at time with the Utah Jazz, but was a mess in Toronto. Agbaji is also 24 years old as a third-year prospect. That suggests he might be closer to a finished product than a still-developing player. Still, Agbaji is going to have a chance at a rotation role, but he needs to make shots to keep it.

Mogbo is the kind of guy who is unassuming at first, but always doing positive stuff when he plays. He’s probably best as a four right now, which means he may soak up whatever minutes are left behind Barnes. Eventually, as his game rounds out, Mogbo should be a nice combo forward off the Raptors bench.

Mitchell and Shead are both bulldogs on defense, which Toronto coach Darko Rajakovic will love. Shead is also a pretty solid playmaker. The big question, like with too many other Raptors, is if they’ll shoot well enough. One of the two will win the backup point guard spot behind Quickley. Bet on Mitchell early, but Shead is going to push him.

In a rebuilding year, none of this overlap in positions is a problem. It’s quite the opposite, as Rajakovic will have great competition for minutes. However, it does mean having some tough conversations with some guys who are used to playing a lot. And when Brown and Walter return, unless Ujiri has swung another trade or two, things will only get more crowded on the perimeter.

 

Keith SmithOctober 16, 2024

When the NBA and the NBPA agreed to the 2017 Collective Bargaining Agreement, they introduced two-way contracts to the league. Each team was given two additional roster spots to sign players to deals that would see them split time between the NBA and the G League.

In the 2023 CBA, two-way spots increased to three per team. In theory, in the span of about six years, the NBA added 90 new roster spots league-wide.

Why “in theory”? Because the tradeoff with the additional two-way spots is a vanishing 15th standard roster spot around the league.

Over the last two years, Spotrac talked to multiple front office executives, coaches, players and agents about the changes in NBA roster-building tactics, especially as it pertains to roster spots in the two-way era. To say that opinions are mixed is an understatement.

“Two-way contracts have all but killed off the 15th spot for most of the year, true training camp invites and a lot of 10 Day contracts too,” a long-time agent told Spotrac. “A lot of teams don’t bother anymore, because they can just use their two-way guys. And don’t get me started on what it’s done to the draft.”

Since the advent of two-way contracts, almost every team has filled their available two-way spots. Outside of the Portland Trail Blazers and Phoenix Suns (who didn’t have their own G League affiliate teams for most of the two-way era), every team filled both spots, and all teams have regularly filled all three two-spots over the last two seasons. Even the Trail Blazers and Suns would eventually fill their spots, despite having to work out a flex assignment arrangement before they had their own G League affiliates.

“Look, we’re all cognizant of the cap and the luxury tax, even more so with hard caps and the aprons,” an Eastern Conference GM said. “Two-way contracts can serve as roster fillers who don’t count against the cap or the tax. That’s a win for teams working around the margins.”

To that point, as regular season rosters are finalized, teams are tighter to those margins than ever. New CBA rules introduced a second tax apron, and a whole host of new rules that can hard cap a team at either the first or second tax apron.

As we approach opening night, 12 NBA teams are hard-capped at the first tax apron. An additional four teams are hard-capped at the second apron. And, if that wasn’t enough, four more teams are already over the second apron, and essentially work as if hard-capped at the second apron.

That’s 20 of 30 NBA teams that are dealing with some form of hard cap or apron-related restrictions. Beyond that, another four teams are at or just over the luxury tax, which has long functioned as an artificial line of demarcation for team salaries.

Those are the margins the Eastern Conference GM was talking about working around. As things have become tighter and more complicated to manage, teams look for advantages where they can get them. Two-way contracts and not filling out the standard roster are a form of advantage that teams are going to use.

An Eastern Conference coach said that’s trickled down to him and his staff too.

“When I first started coaching, the medical team determined who could play and who couldn’t. Maybe around the trade deadline, the front office would tell you to hold a guy out because he was in trade talks,” the coach said. “Now, the front office gives us daily updates on our two-way guys and if they can play or not. That’s on top of the medical stuff and guys who are in trade talks. I love having the extra help, but you can’t get overly reliant on your two-way players. You never know when the front office will say they aren’t available because of game counts.”


With opening night approaching, if we remove Exhibit 9/10 contracts from roster counts, there are currently 19 open standard roster spots around the NBA. The league is required to roster an average of 14.5 players per team on standard contracts. That works out to 435 players against 450 possible standard roster spots.

As you can see, the league is currently four short of reaching that minimum. Now, that will be partially handled by a rule introduced in the 2023 CBA that requires teams to be at a minimum of 14 players for no more than 14 consecutive days (a carryover from previous CBAs) and a total of 28 days (new 2023 CBA addition). Teams will dip under 14 players on standard contracts from time to time, but it won’t last for very long.

However, there is no rule stating that a team has to be at 15 players on standard deals. And that’s where teams have gotten increasingly creative.

“We’re a tax team. We’re already going to get hit with a tax bill. So, a natural question we ask is ‘Does it make sense to fill the 15th spot?’”, a Western Conference front office executive told Spotrac. “Some years, it does. Some years, it doesn’t. Sure, we hope if we don’t fill it, our owner will give us some leeway later, but that doesn’t always happen. Billionaires don’t become billionaires by throwing money away.”

An Eastern Conference front office executive put it in even simpler terms: “Is it worth spending a bunch of money for a guy who isn’t going to play? Our coaches and players will obviously say yes. But our owner will probably say no. My job is to find that happy medium. And with two-way guys and 10 Day deals, we can get around filling that spot until late in the season, if we’re going to be a playoff team.”

A prominent veteran player feels different, for obvious and not-so obvious reasons.

“I’ve been bouncing around for a few years now. It’s way harder to make a team at the end of the bench than it used to be. Some organizations want vets in those spots, but they probably have a guy in that role who they’ve had for years, you know?”, he said. “That means I have to earn my spot by bringing something that team doesn’t have. But even then, if they’d rather develop a kid on a two-way, I know I’m not going to make it. That’s why a lot of guys are just going to Europe or China and taking the money and the big role.”

Of the 19 open roster spots, they belong to 16 different teams. Of those 16 teams, nine are already into the luxury tax. Recent history suggests that most of those teams will leave the 15th spot open going into the season. That’s roughly one-third of the league that will carry an open spot for a while.

Now, to be fair, it’s extremely rare for a team to leave their final roster spot open all season long. As the Eastern Conference front office executive said, a playoff team will almost always fill that 15th spot before the end of the season. That’s because two-way players aren’t eligible to play in the playoffs, and no team wants to be caught with a lack of depth in the postseason, should they suffer injuries. That’s another reason why the league doesn’t miss out on the 14.5 players per team roster requirement.

“After the trade deadline and buyout season, it’s an absolute dogfight for roster spots,” an agent told Spotrac. “You’ve got teams that are tanking and willing to tryout guys, but you’ve also got playoff teams looking for guys too. The challenge is, more and more teams would rather just promote a two-way guy than sign a player who isn’t in the league.”

Another agent said, “It used to be that after the trade deadline, I could count on getting my guys 10 Day contracts without any kind of worry. That’s become less, because teams will just use their two-way players for more games. What has changed is you’ll get two-way contract offers sometimes, but that gets tricky because a lot of teams want someone who will sign a two-year two-way deal. Our policy is to avoid locking in for that second year unless it’s the perfect spot or the only offer our guy has.”


Let’s talk about 10 Day contracts. The NBA has had the leaguewide roster minimum for several years now. One way teams work around that is by bringing players in on 10 Day contracts. Initially designed to give teams a replacement player when a player was placed on the Injured List (the NBA did away with the Injured List many years ago, in favor of a by-game Inactive List), 10 Day contracts have also been used differently over the years.

Since the 2017-18 season, when two-way contracts became a thing, the NBA has seen the following amount of 10 Day contracts signed, per Spotrac tracking data:

  • 2017-18 – 62
  • 2018-19 – 63
  • 2019-20 – 32
  • 2020-21 – 65
  • 2021-22 – 225
  • 2022-23 – 40
  • 2023-24 – 64

There’s some context needed here. The 2019-20 season was cut short before 10 Day contract season (post-trade deadline and buyout period) could fully pick up. The 2020-21 season was shortened and with tightened COVID protocols, teams didn’t bring in extra players very often. In 2021-22, the rules were adjusted to allow for 10 Day hardship signings when players were out due to positive COVID tests. This caused a massive spike in 10 Day contracts and record number of players in the NBA for a single season.

If we take those three seasons out of the mix, as they aren’t really representative of normal NBA operating conditions, we can see teams generally sign about 60 total 10 Day deals.

However, a bit more context is needed here. In 2022-23, with things back to normal, the number of 10 Day deals had started to dip. Last season, the number moved back up, but that’s inflated by a couple of different teams who signed several 10 Day contracts due to injury hardship allowances. For example, the Memphis Grizzlies had 33 different players appear in at least three games for the team last season. Several of those players were on 10 Day deals.

“Basically, I know I’m waiting for someone to get hurt,” a player who has shuttled between the NBA and the G League in recent seasons told Spotrac. “And that sucks! A lot of these guys are my friends. But for me to get a spot, I’m almost rooting for someone to get injured. I don’t have two-way eligibility, so I’m always going to be fighting for a spot. I’ll take one how I can get it. It is what it is.”

A Western Conference coach added, “It used to be that vets wouldn’t take a 10 Day deal. It was a full contract or nothing. That changed a few years ago. Now, vets will take a 10 Day to show you that they can still play. The goal is to catch on before playoff rosters finalize.”

One West GM told Spotrac, “We save our last spot for flexibility. If we have a need and our two-way games are getting tight, we’ll bring in a guy on a 10 Day. But pre-trade deadline, we don’t want a guy taking up a roster spot we might need in an unbalanced trade. It’s easier to leave it open and to save some money, than it is to tell a guy you are cutting him.”

To put it simply, NBA teams as a collective of 30 have a contractual responsibility to all play a part in filling out their rosters. Eventually, they get there. The league hasn’t seen the number dip under that 14.5 players per team requirement.

What’s changed is that the 15th spot sits open longer than ever before.


“I’d argue that two-way contracts have been a win for players and teams,” an Eastern Conference GM told Spotrac. “Instead of cutting a guy at the end of the preseason, they end up staying a part of the organization. They keep practicing with you, maybe even see some game time. We’ve had our coaches beg us to convert a two-way guy, simply because they get to see him work. That wouldn’t happen if they weren’t still with us.”

An agent countered that with, “Sure, some teams are great with their two-way guys. They make them feel like they are part of the team. They are invested. Other teams couldn’t give a shit about a guy on a two-way deal, especially the coaching staff. And what it’s really killed is the guys who got a partial guarantee to go to camp, knowing they might land with the G League team after. Those are completely dead now.”

What that agent is talking about is a practice that has all but disappeared from use. Teams used to regularly sign players to standard contracts that were partially guaranteed. The idea was to give the player some money, even though that player likely to be waived at the end of the preseason. The player would then likely play for that team’s G League affiliate, while waiting for an in-season callup on a 10 Day deal or sometimes even a straight standard signing.

Now, teams largely use Exhibit 9 (comes with some injury protection) or Exhibit 10 (comes with a bonus if the player later plays for the team’s G League affiliate for a period of 60 days) contracts to fill out their camp rosters. Exhibit 9 “Summer Contracts” have existed for years. Teams like to use them, because they don’t count against the salary cap or luxury tax, unless the player makes the regular season roster. Exhibit 10 deals are a newer thing, and are convertible for those players with two-way eligibility, or come with a bonus for playing in the G League.

With Exhibit 9 and 10 contracts so widely used, teams have stopped giving partial guarantees to players simply to come to training camp.

“It’s bullshit. And the teams know it. I’m not even going to say it’s a bad strategy. Why spend money if you don’t have to? And with all the ridiculous apron rules, no one wants to take on even a dollar on the books if they can avoid it,” one agent said. “But this is why guys aren’t hanging around anymore. They’re going overseas in droves now. Why play the game in the NBA, get cut and then all the money is gone in Europe and Asia?”

Another agent feels differently, “The goal is to play in the NBA, right? I want our guys as close to NBA teams as possible. How many guys are signed from overseas during the NBA season? One or two? You go overseas, and you’re gone for the year. That’s not bad for some players, because there is pretty good money in Europe, Australia, China and Japan now. And they become heroes in China and Japan. But for our guys who want to be in the NBA, we advise them to stay close to the NBA.”

A veteran player who remains a free agent added, “You have to be careful. I turned down some good offers in China and Japan, because I know I’m an NBA player. But I don’t have a contract and bills are due. You know what I mean? I wonder every day if I made a mistake. And then I see this team and that team has an open roster spot and I’m like ‘Saving a few bucks is better than having me on your team?’ It’s fucking tough, man.”

A Western Conference coach said it’s helpful to have guys playing for the G League affiliate when it comes time to fill out open spots.

“I barely have time to watch other NBA games, forget games outside of the NBA. The handful of times I see a player not in the NBA is with our G League team. And if they are in our program, at least they know our system and what we want to do. If our front office says it’s time to fill our last spot, I’d rather go with someone we can bring in with relative ease.”


The reality is that there are currently 540 NBA roster spots available each season. That’s 450 standard spots and 90 two-way spots. NBA expansion is an inevitable and impending reality. That’ll add at least 36 more spots to the league (15 standard spots and three two-way spots for each of the expected two expansion teams).

That’s 576 roster spots. Are there 576 NBA-caliber players in the world?

“Absolutely. We’re probably closer to 1000 guys who could play in the league than we are 500,” one Eastern Conference GM said.

Another Eastern Conference GM disagreed.

“It’s close. But we think of two-way players and G League players as being ‘NBA adjacent’. Are they ready for the NBA? No. Are they worth working with to get there? Definitely. So, in that sense, there are definitely more than enough NBA adjacent players to fill out our current rosters and a couple more teams when we expand.”

Players and agents are ready for expansion, almost as much as fans in cities starving for their own teams.

“Expand tomorrow, if it were up to me! I’ve got guys ready to go. There aren’t 1000 NBA guys out there, but there are probably 700. And more and more are coming every year in the draft too,” an agent said. “I’m more excited about getting more guys drafted in real spots, instead of the bullshit that happens now.”

What this agent is referring to is how the NBA Draft has changed since the advent of two-way contracts. For years, first-round picks were all but guaranteed to land on an NBA roster. Every four or five years, a player would get drafted in the first round and stashed overseas.

In the second round, draft-and-stash picks were far more common. Regularly, there would be 10 or more draft-and-stash guys each year. Now, teams have started to shy away from those opportunities. Somewhere in the range of the 40th to 45th selection in the draft, teams have begun drafting players with the express purpose of signing them to a two-way contract.

“Every agent has at least a dozen stories of a guy that only got drafted because he’d sign a two-way deal or a guy who didn’t get drafted because he wouldn’t,” an agent told Spotrac.

At the 2024 NBA Draft, 28 players were selected in the second round. (The Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns both forfeited second-round picks due to tampering violations.) Here’s the breakdown of what types of contracts those 28 players signed:

  • 14 players signed standard contracts
  • 11 players signed two-way contracts
  • 2 players are draft-and-stashed in Europe
  • 1 player is unsigned after an offseason injury

The highest a player was selected and signed to a two-way contract was 38th. The lowest-drafted player to sign a standard contract was drafted 55th.

“The second round of the draft has turned into the first round of the G League Draft. Half of the guys drafted end up on a two-way deal. The other half sign four-year NBA deals, but they are headed to the G League too. That’s taken a lot of guaranteed money out of guy’s pockets, because teams don’t even give them a partial camp deal,” an agent said.

The four-year NBA deals referred to by this agent are via the Second Round Pick Exception. Another new part of the 2023 CBA was the creation of an exception to sign second-round picks to a three- or four-year contract without having to use cap space or to dip into the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. Some agents love the guaranteed money, while others think locking in players for four years has removed earning potential for those players who outplay a contract that pays just north of the league minimum.

Team executives pushed back on that idea.

“Agents will say guys aren’t getting paid, but (Second Round Pick) Exception and two-way players aren’t playing for free. Most of them will get a bigger deal than they’d get overseas. What most agents want to do is double-dip. Get a guarantee, then sign a two-way after. Or they want a two-year deal, but with a guarantee that if their guy doesn’t pop that we’ll bring them back on another deal,” a Western Conference GM said. “If we draft you, we want you. But our opinion is that the player needs time in the G League. If we all do our jobs well, that time on a two-way deal might be for a year or less. And we’re always open to extending the Exception guys too, if they earn it.”

That last part is a key component that is worth examining. As seen with Scotty Pippen Jr.’s recent contract with the Memphis Grizzlies, toiling on a two-way deal can pay off. Pippen played for two seasons on two-way deals. He proved himself and signed a four-year deal with Memphis that will see him earn over $4 million in guaranteed salary.

Pippen is just the latest two-way success story for Memphis only. The Grizzlies have also seen Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson II promoted from two-way status with long-term standard deals in the past year.

Memphis and the Miami Heat are two examples of teams who have had great success developing players while on two-way contracts and through the G League. But whether on a two-way deal or on standard deal via the Second Round Pick Exception, it’s up to the player to put in the work.

One player who was promoted from a two-way deal in recent seasons said, “You can tell the guys who go to the G League with a bad attitude and the guys who go there to work. It’s pro basketball a step below the NBA. Go there, show out, and get your NBA deal. I know too many guys who think they are too good to have to prove it. If that was true, you’d be on an NBA team not playing overseas.”


“Look, all of what others said is true. I’m not going to say players and teams haven’t both benefitted from two-way contracts. There are a lot of examples of that,” an agent said. “But you know what I have a lot more examples of? Guys not getting deals because teams don’t want to fill that 15th spot. I’ve had teams openly tell me ‘We have 50 games for each of our two-way guys.’ as the reason they won’t fill out their roster. Overall, that’s a loss for everyone.”

So…what’s the fix? That’s a complicated, and admittedly selfish answer for all parties involved.

“Personally, I don’t have an issue with it. I did my time on a two-way and I got chances because our team left roster spots open. I wouldn’t have gotten minutes if another guy was already on the team,” the promoted player told Spotrac.

A Western Conference front office executive gets that line of thinking.

“Players have to work no matter what the situation is. It’s hard to make our league. Really, really hard. Sometimes having one less guy to compete against can work for a player.”

Most agents disagree. One said, “Owners are cheap. They’ll talk flexibility and all that shit, but it’s really that they don’t want to spend extra money. And that’s been a loss for players, because they miss out. Not just on the immediate money, but years of service and all the other stuff that adds up over time.”

NBA teams have transitioned how they build rosters over the years. Rosters have grown in size since the league was formed. There was a time when the league’s original coaches believed you needed 10 players to run a practice and that was enough.

Now, there are up 540 players in the NBA at a given time. That may seem like a big number, but it’s still the smallest of all of the major sports leagues by a pretty wide margin. With limited roster spots and increasingly complex and burdensome luxury tax and apron restrictions, NBA teams are always going to be cautious and methodical about filling out their rosters.

One Eastern Conference GM put it in the simplest terms of all.

“If filling the 15th spot matters this much, we’d fill it. If you are that worried about your 15th man, I’d say you have a whole lot more you should be worried about.”

Keith SmithOctober 15, 2024

NBA teams are fully in preseason mode, with the regular season about a week away.

NBA preseason doesn’t come with the excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller rosters and more guaranteed money mean that NBA squads are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots are playing out out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going to going team by team and look some of the most interesting battles to monitor as we close in on the regular season. We previously covered the Southwest DivisionNorthwest Division and Pacific Division out west. Then we headed east to cover the Southeast Division. Now, we take a look at the Central Division teams!

Chicago Bulls

Ballhandlers

Chicago has a lot of on-ball playmakers. Some of them are fine as off-ball players, but these guys are best with the ball in their hands. That’s the spot where Billy Donovan has the most decisions to make.

Zach LaVine looks healthy and he’s going to be the Bulls primary scorer and playmaker. A return to full health and productivity is good for LaVine, Chicago and LaVine’s trade value.

Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu are both back after having productive seasons. Both players are coming off career-best years. They are both also young enough to factor into whatever the Bulls are going to be next.

In the offseason, Chicago added Josh Giddey. While Giddey has taken baby steps as an off-ball player, his best work is done with the ball in his hands. He’s going to start as…well…something. Outside of Nikola Vucevic, who will be the Bulls center, Donovan seems to be leaning into a relatively positionless starting group. That’s hardly a bad thing, and it’s for the best given the team’s current roster makeup. Giddey is going to be a big part of that, both this season and moving forward.

If those four aren’t enough, Lonzo Ball is coming back from injury. After two-and-a-half years on the sideline, Ball is ready to play again. At this point, we have no idea what to expect from the veteran point guard, but the Bulls are going to give Ball some minutes to figure it out. In part, that’s to reward him for battling for nearly three years to get back on the court. It’s also to see if Ball can be a productive rotation player, either for Chicago or elsewhere as an expiring, tradable contract.

We’re now at five guys who are going to see minutes. Behind them, Jevon Carter is a quality NBA guy who seemingly has no path to minutes. The Bulls look like they may keep training camp invite Talen Horton-Tucker into the regular season. Carter can play off-ball, but Horton-Tucker is another guy who is best with the ball his hands.

Depth is great, as the injury-ravaged Bulls backcourt has demonstrated in the past. But these are a lot of guys who need to play and to have the ball. And that’s before we get to any touches used by Vucevic or Patrick Williams. That’s a lot for Donovan to work out in what looks like a transitional year for Chicago.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Small Forward

The best bet is that the Cavaliers will open with Max Strus as their starting small forward. Strus was underwhelming as a shooter last season, but should be better this year with better health from the Cavs playmakers.

Behind Strus, new coach Kenny Atkinson can go with Isaac Okoro, who is the team’s best wing defender or Caris LeVert, who is a nice on-ball playmaker and scorer. Okoro makes the most sense, as the Cavs could use his defense against bigger ballhandlers. Okoro is also a much-improved shooter, which could help open up the floor if opponents respect his jumper more this season.

LeVert is an offensive weapon. He’ll probably see more time as a backup guard/ballhandler behind both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland than he will as a small forward. But if Cleveland needs some offensive juice, don’t be surprised if LeVert shows up in three-guard lineups with the Cavs two All-Stars.

Dean Wade is another option, especially against bigger forward as he’s a three/four combo forward. Solid defense and an improved jumper have Wade in the mix to play big minutes at both forward spots.

Lastly, keep an eye on rookie wing Jaylon Tyson. After an outstanding Summer League run, Tyson has looked just as good in the preseason. He’s got some work to do before he’ll crack the rotation, but there’s a good chance that will happen by midseason. Tyson is simply going to be too good to keep off the floor.

Detroit Pistons

Wing Rotation

Trajan Langdon’s offseason makeover of the Pistons has infused the roster with proven talent. No more does that stand out more than with the wing group.

Veteran shooters Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. were brought in this summer. Simone Fontecchio was re-signed. Ron Holland II was added in the draft. And Ausar Thompson is returning after a promising rookie season. In addition, Tobias Harris has played plenty at small forward, and talented youngster Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey could play some on the wing in multiple ballhandler lineups.

This is all good stuff for Detroit. This roster needed both talent and to create competition for minutes. Harris, Beasley and Hardaway will help – as Fontecchio did after his midseason acquisition last year – by giving Cunningham and Ivey some reliable shooters. Too many possessions featured the two young playmakers getting frustrated by making the right read, seeing another jumper clang off the rim and reverting to taking contested mid-range jumpers themselves. Now, they have players they can trust to make shots. That should lift their games, and the Pistons as a whole.

But new head coach JB Bickerstaff has to balance his rotation. Detroit is still rebuilding, so they can’t sacrifice developmental minutes for the kids by playing the veterans too much. For example, Thompson is too special as a defender and playmaker to sit just to have better shooting on the floor. Finding that balance is key for the Pistons, both for this season and the years to come.

Indiana Pacers

Are There Enough Minutes To Go Around?

In a pretty short period of time, the Pacers have built one of the deeper rosters in the NBA. That’s something to be praised, but it does come with a challenge for Rick Carlisle. There are good veterans, as well as promising youngsters, who aren’t going to have regular roles.

At each position, Indiana has at least two, if not three or more, players who can play. That’s great depth for those nights when guys are out. When everyone is healthy, it’s hard to see how there are enough minutes for everyone.

At center, Indiana will start Myles Turner and probably back him up with Isaiah Jackson. That doesn’t leave much time for James Wiseman as a project. At the four, Pascal Siakam is backed up by Obi Toppin. Both players got paid this summer as key rotation guys. Where does that leave Jarace Walker?

Sliding Walker over to play small forward is complicated by the presence of Aaron Nesmith and Ben Sheppard. Pushing one of them down a spot means that Andrew Nembhard or Bennedict Mathurin will lose minutes. Putting Nembhard behind Tyrese Haliburton takes backup point guard minutes away from T.J. McConnell.

The Pacers are somewhere between a really good team and a real contender. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for developmental minutes. That means guys like Walker, Wiseman and rookie second-rounder Johnny Furphy may rarely see the floor. Such is life on a deep team that is trying to push themselves to the next level.

Milwaukee Bucks

Who Is The Fourth Wing?

Milwaukee did really well to add talent this offseason, despite having limited resources to work with. As a second apron team, the Bucks were mostly limited to veteran minimum deals, and still came away with Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright. That’s terrific value for all three players.

Prince gives the Bucks another forward to put in the mix behind Giannis Antetokounmpo. Bobby Portis has mostly become a third big/backup center. Having Prince gives Doc Rivers another guy he can work in when Antetokounmpo is off the floor.

Wright solves the backup point guard issue that plagued Milwaukee at times when Damian Lillard was out. Trent seems likely to start at shooting guard, which is good, given the Bucks lack of other quality options for that spot.

It’s that last one where things get tricky for Rivers. Trent is a good player. Khris Middleton will obviously play on the perimeter when he’s healthy. The challenge is that Middleton is starting the season limited after offseason surgeries on both ankles.

Behind Middleton and Trent, the Bucks can go with Pat Connaughton, who has been a solid backup wing for years. For the other wing spot? That’s a box full of answered questions.

Prince will likely see some minutes at small forward. A.J. Green is a knockdown shooter. If he can defend better, he’s likely got the inside track on a rotation role.

Andre Jackson Jr. has the opposite problem. He can defend, but he either can’t or won’t shoot. (Aside: Jackson needs to be more willing to let it fly. His jumper doesn’t look bad enough that he should be such a reluctant shooter.) MarJon Beauchamp looks like he needs a fresh start elsewhere, while Chris Livingston and A.J. Johnson are unproven prospects.

Given Middleton’s track record of missing games, Rivers is going to have to find someone beyond Trent and Connaughton that he trusts. Putting faith in young players has been an issue for Rivers over the years, but he may have no other choice, barring a move to bring in more veteran help.

 

Keith SmithOctober 14, 2024

NBA teams are fully in preseason mode, with the regular season about a week away.

NBA preseason doesn’t come with the excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller rosters and more guaranteed money mean that NBA squads are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots are playing out out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going to going team by team and look some of the most interesting battles to monitor as we close in on the regular season. We previously covered the Southwest DivisionNorthwest Division and Pacific Division. Now, we head east for the Southeast Division teams!

Atlanta Hawks

Wing Rotation

The Hawks aren’t really rebuilding, but resetting. And Atlanta is attempting to do so on the fly. Nowhere on the roster is more of a work in progress than the wing rotation.

It looks like De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson will start at the two forward spots as interchangeable players. The shooting guard spot is a three-way competition between veteran Bogdan Bogdanovic, first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher and Dyson Daniels.

If those five guys aren’t enough, Vit Krejci is firmly in the mix for regular minutes, as is shooting specialist Garrison Mathews. And Larry Nance Jr. will figure into the four/five rotation, which may push down other players to more minutes at the three.

None of this is bad. The Hawks are in a good spot to have players earn their minutes. Johnson is the best of this bunch, as he’s already shown he’s a long-term part of Atlanta’s future. Bogdanovic is the next most proven. The question for him is if he should be coming off the bench or starting. As a reserve, Bogdanovic is a potential Sixth Man of the Year. It also should help Quin Snyder manage minutes for the veteran a bit more.

Risacher has looked better in the preseason than he did in Summer League, which is exciting. He’s got the potential for rapid improvement and he’s going to play plenty. Daniels gives the Hawks a nice big guard option alongside Trae Young, but his lack of a consistent jumper is still holding him back somewhat.

Snyder is going to have make some tough decisions as long as everyone is healthy. Bet on Johnson, Bogdanovic, Risacher, Hunter and Daniels all playing plenty. The others may have to wait until an injury, or a trade, opens up more minutes.

Charlotte Hornets

Wing/Guard Rotation

All of a sudden, the Hornets have an abundance of quality at the wing/guard positions. The emergence of young players, players returning to good health and acquisitions over the last year has given new head coach Charles Lee some rotation decisions to make.

LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller are locks to start. They are Charlotte’s building blocks and both look ready to have big seasons. Around them, there are more questions, but instead of a bunch of not-great options, the Hornets have talented players to choose from.

Josh Green came over in a multi-team trade as a salary-dump this summer. Green can play though. If he can hit open shots and defend, Green could be in the mix to start in between Ball and Miller as a 3&D wing.

Off the bench, Cody Martin is hoping for a healthier season than last year. Unfortunately, a wrist and finger injury have him a bit behind as the regular season approaches. If he can get right, Martin will be a rotation player as a wing option.

Of true guards, Vasilije Micic has the inside track to be the backup point guard. The veteran is a stabilizing player for bench units, and a good option should Ball miss more time. Tre Mann got his career on track after last season’s trade to the Hornets. He’s an undersized scoring guard, but those players have long histories as productive bench players.

Rookie first-round Tidjane Salaun looks more ready to contribute right away than expected. He’s going to force his way into some regular wing minutes. Veteran guard Seth Curry is back for some bench shooting, while second-year guard Nick Smith Jr. faces an uphill battle for a rotation spot.

As a rookie head coach, Lee has some talented players to choose from in this group. This is still a rebuilding season for the Hornets, but they’re closer to the “push forward” side of the rebuild, as opposed to the “getting started” portion. This group is a big part of why Charlotte could potential compete for a spot in the Play-In Tournament this season.

Miami Heat

Backup Point Guard

The Heat roster is fairly well settled. Well, so long as everyone is healthy. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier III and Nikola Jovic seem likely to start. Duncan Robinson, Jaime Jaquez Jr, Haywood Highsmith, Kevin Love and rookie Kel’el Ware will see time off the bench.

That leaves the only uncertain spot as backup point guard. Josh Richardson will probably fill that role when he’s fully healthy. Richardson has been a bit hit or miss as the primary floor leader, but the Heat have enough other playmakers that it should be fine.

Veteran Alec Burks will probably figure into the mix, as well. Burks isn’t a traditional point guard, but he’s a solid enough ball-mover that he can fill the role. Again, like with Richardson, Miami should have other playmakers out there to ease that burden.

If the veterans aren’t working out, keep an eye on rookie Pelle Larsson. He’s got a knack for passing and he’s a pretty solid spot-up shooter too. Don’t be surprised if he breaks through late in the year.

Orlando Magic

Two-Way Spots

For a young team, the Magic have a lot of roster continuity. The only major rotation change is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope took the place of Markelle Fultz. That leaves Jamahl Mosley with a bit of a crowded guard group, but that will work itself out throughout the season.

With terrific frontcourt depth, and solid wing depth, there isn’t a whole lot up in the air for Orlando’s rotation right now. Where the intrigue comes in for the Magic is with their two-way spots.

Trevelin Queen has one spot locked in. The other two have been subject to a camp-long competition. Mac McClung could snag one, as he’s been wildly productive on the G League level. Jalen Slawson could grab the third spot, as he’s a wing with a little bit of size. Ethan Thompson and Robert Baker II are also in the mix, as Thompson is a big guard and Baker is a combo forward.

Despite not having competition for spots on the standard roster, Orlando has had a competitive camp with this two-way battle. That’s solid work by the Magic front office to manufacture some spirited play down the roster.

Washington Wizards

Play the Kids or Play the Vets?

The Wizards are still in “deconstruction phase” per general manager Will Dawkins. That means there’s still a lot of roster-tinkering to come in Washington.

Despite that, the Wizards aren’t going full youth movement yet. Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole are still around. And in the last year, the team added Malcolm Brogdon, Jonas Valanciunas and Marvin Bagley III. That’s a fairly solid veteran group to eat up a lot of regular season minutes.

Behind that group, there are a bunch of kids who are going to push for minutes. Bilal Coulibaly is hitting Year 2 looking like a starter. Corey Kispert is starting Year 4 as a regular rotation player. The 2024 NBA Draft brought Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George into the mix.

Brian Keefe is now the full-time head coach, after having the interim tag removed this summer. He’s not going to be challenged with winning games, at least not yet. But Keefe is going to have to find the balance of keeping the team competitive by playing the veterans, while developing the kids who are the Wizards future. At some point, the latter will become priority. The question is: How quickly will that happen?

 

Keith SmithOctober 09, 2024

NBA teams are fully in preseason mode, with the regular season less than two weeks away.

NBA preseason doesn’t come with the excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller rosters and more guaranteed money mean that NBA squads are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots are playing out out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going to going team by team and look some of the most interesting battles to monitor as we close in on the regular season. We previously covered the Southwest Division and Northwest Division. Next up are the Pacific Division teams!

Golden State Warriors

Frontcourt Rotation

Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga and Andrew Wiggins seem pretty set to start in the Golden State frontcourt. Behind them, things are a bit more unsettled. Also, should that trio be the starting group?

Trayce Jackson-Davis’ strong rookie season should have him in line for regular minutes at the five. Kevon Looney is still around as a physical, veteran presence, but his play slipped greatly last season. Kyle Anderson was signed as a do-it-all bench forward. He’ll play a big role with his ballhandling and passing in the Warriors motion system.

That’s about it for frontcourt options for Steve Kerr. Quentin Post is an interesting player on a two-way contract. He’s got the most size on the roster. But Post probably isn’t contributing a whole lot this season.

As for who should start, in order to put their best five on the floor, the Warriors probably need to run with a Green, Kuminga, Wiggins frontcourt. Green can certainly play the five, but asking him to do it all the time is a lot. Kuminga himself said his best position is small forward. Wiggins has been up and down production-wise and in and out availability-wise over the last couple of seasons. At least one of the backups is going to be needed for big minutes this season. Kerr getting this spot right may be the difference between a playoff spot and another trip to the Play-In Tournament.

LA Clippers

Forward Rotation

The Clippers couldn’t replace Paul George straight up, so they took the Moneyball approach of trying to replace George in the aggregate. Nic Batum came back, while Derrick Jones Jr. were signed for the frontcourt. Kris Dunn and Kevin Porter were brought in for the backcourt.

George’s role was pretty dynamic for LA. He’d play anywhere from the two to the four, depending on lineup constructions and who else was available that night. With a bunch of guard options, it’s the forward minutes where the Clippers need to replace George’s production most.

Jones or Batum will start next to Kawhi Leonard (and possibly both will start if Leonard is out to open the season). The other one will anchor the bench forward group. Behind them, Terance Mann and Amir Coffey can both play the three. Depth at the four remains an issue, so Ty Lue will continue to mix and match with small-ball options around Jones and Batum.

Keep an eye on Kobe Brown. The second-year forward looks better prepared for the NBA season this year. If Brown could break through, he’d give Lue another option, and a player with a bit more size than the team’s other forward options.

Los Angeles Lakers

Center Rotation

The Lakers have Anthony Davis as their starting center. That’s pretty great!

Behind Davis, Jaxson Hayes was pretty solid last season. He didn’t play a lot, but Hayes finished well around the rim, got on the glass and blocked shots at a decent clip. Hayes is a solid enough backup five.

Beyond those two, the Lakers have…a lot of questions.

Los Angeles was likely looking for bounce-back seasons from Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood for additional big man depth. However, both Vanderbilt and Wood are starting out the season recovering from surgeries. It’s unknown when either will be able to contribute.

That leaves the Lakers looking at two-way centers Colin Castleton and, hopefully, Christian Koloko for minutes behind Davis and Hayes. Castleton did a nice job in the G League last season. He may be ready for an NBA shot, especially on the offensive end of the floor. Koloko had a promising rookie year with the Toronto Raptors, but he missed all of last season while dealing with blood clots. If fully cleared, Koloko could provide some rebounding and rim protection.

Without a trade, Los Angeles is going to have to piece together some minutes if Davis and Hayes can’t cover the full 48 at center. The Lakers don’t have great small-ball options, but may need to lean on LeBron James and Rui Hachimura in small lineups for at least a handful of minutes per night. And, of course, there’s always the chance this gets solved via a trade at some point this season.

Phoenix Suns

Perimeter Rotation

Phoenix has a lot of talent, just like last season. The good news is that the roster seems a bit more balanced this year, as they brought in Tyus Jones and Monte Morris to handle the point guard minutes. However, with real floor generals in place, the Suns have to slide the guys who previously masqueraded as point guards to other positions.

Devin Booker and Bradley Beal will start at two perimeter spots. That pushes Grayson Allen to the bench, where he’ll probably be a Sixth Man of the Year contender. Josh Okogie and Damion Lee are around for depth behind that main group at the guard spots.

For the bigger wings, Kevin Durant will play a lot as the four. Royce O’Neale will be first up for backup forward minutes. Rookie Ryan Dunn has looked increasingly ready for rotation minutes. If Dunn can make shots, his defense could be his ticket to playing time.

None of this is really an issue, except for Mike Budenholzer. He may not have enough rotation minutes to go around every night for all his veteran options. But that’s something that should work itself out eventually. The fun part is going to be watching how that happens.

Sacramento Kings

Bench Forwards

The Kings added DeMar DeRozan in place of Harrison Barnes this offseason. DeRozan will start alongside holdover Keegan Murray. That’s a nice duo at the forward spot.

Behind them, things are a lot more in flux. It seems like Kevin Huerter will see more of his minutes as a backup forward, as Malik Monk and Keon Ellis have the off-guard minutes locked up Sacramento. That should cover the small forward spot fairly well.

Alongside Huerter, the Kings are hoping that Jalen McDaniels can give them some minutes as a combo forward. After a promising start to his career, McDaniels struggled with the Toronto Raptors last season. If he can make shots, play defense and provide a little rebounding, McDaniels will get some minutes, especially as the backup four.

Trey Lyles will fill some backup power forward minutes, as well as seeing some time as Domantas Sabonis’ backup at the five. Lyles’ ability to space the floor is probably a bigger advantage at the five. That makes getting someone like McDaniels to fill minutes at the four a key coming into the season. Lyles is also recovering from an injury to open the year. That may make the power forward spot something that Mike Brown may have to piece together for a while.

For longer shots, keep an eye on two-way players Isaiah Crawford and Isaac Jones. Crawford doesn’t have great size, but he played up a lot at Louisiana Tech. He’s a rugged rebounder and athletic shot-blocker. Jones is a terrific athlete. He’s probably more of a five than a four right now, but Jones could eventually see the floor as a four. He’ll need to add some range and improve his perimeter defense, but there’s potential there.

Keith SmithOctober 02, 2024

The New York Knicks, Minnesota Timberwolves and Charlotte Hornets (and KK Partizan of Serbia and the EuroLeague) got creative to make a monster eve-of-the-preseason trade happen.

This trade involves multiple teams (always fun!), multiple players (always fun!), All-Star and All-NBA players (always fun!), multiple draft picks (always fun!) and some incredible CBA, salary cap, tax apron maneuvering (always VERY fun!). And if that wasn’t enough, FIBA and a EuroLeague team had to jump in to help make this deal happen.

Here are the particulars for this three team-trade:

New York Knicks acquire: Karl-Anthony Towns (from Minnesota), draft rights for James Nnaji (from Charlotte)

Minnesota Timberwolves acquire: Julius Randle (from New York), Donte DiVincenzo (from New York), Keita Bates-Diop (from New York), protected Detroit Pistons 2025 first-round pick (from New York)

Charlotte Hornets acquire: Charlie Brown Jr. (from New York via sign-and-trade), DaQuan Jeffries (from New York via sign-and-trade), Duane Washington Jr. (from New York via sign-and-trade), 2025 least favorable of Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia second-round pick (from Minnesota), 2026 Golden State Warriors second-round pick (from New York), 2031 New York Knicks second-pick (from New York), $7.2 million in cash

Let’s dive in!

(Note: We are analyzing this deal as it has been reported. If the trade is adjusted to include additional players or teams, we’ll adjust the analysis.)

New York Knicks

Incoming salary: $49.2 million in 2024-25

  • Karl-Anthony Towns (C/PF, four years, $220.4 million)

Outgoing salary: $49.9 million in 2024-25

  • Julius Randle (PF, two years, $59.9 million (pre-trade bonus), second year player option), Donte DiVincenzo (SG, three years, $35.9 million), Keita Bates-Diop (SF, one year, $2.6 million), Charlie Brown Jr. (SG, three years, $7.6 million (only Year 1 guaranteed)), DaQuan Jeffries (SG, three years, $8.3 million (only Year 1 guaranteed)), Duane Washington Jr. (SG, three years, $7.2 million (only Year 1 guaranteed))

Before we get too deep into this particular trade, we need to step back to earlier this offseason when the New York Knicks acquired Mikal Bridges. In that deal, the Knicks could have made a fairly simple transaction to acquire Bridges by taking on a bit more salary than they would have sent out. That trade would have been perfectly legal, but it would have hard-capped the Knicks at the first apron.

Because the New York front office was forward thinking, they got creative and added some additional salary to the Brooklyn Nets, partially in the form of a sign-and-trade (keep that in mind for later!). By sending the Nets more money than they took back, the Knicks avoided a first apron hard cap and instead hard-capped themselves at the second apron.

Without that bit of foresight and creativity, the Knicks would not have been able to make this trade for Karl-Anthony Towns. There’s been some reporting that New York was pushing for a Towns trade as far back as the last few years, and really ramped up efforts over the summer. By being smart about how they structured Bridges trade, and their subsequent signings and re-signings as well, the Knicks put themselves in position to make their second seismic move of the offseason.

We’re going to start breaking down the Knicks acquisition of Towns from the CBA/cap/apron perspective, because this deal involved an incredible level of creativity to get it across the finish line.

Because Towns makes about $49.2 million this season, which is his maximum salary, his trade bonus is disregarded. That was the target number for the Knicks to match or beat. By doing so, New York would avoid triggering a first apron hard cap, which would make this deal die somewhere between extremely hard and impossible.

Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and Keita Bates-Diop (Bates-Diop is able to be aggregated in this deal, because the 60-day waiting period has passed since New York acquired him as part of the Bridges trade) got New York to just over $43 million in outgoing salary. That left the Knicks about $6 million shy of the target mark.

This is where New York went to work.

The Knicks got to that $6 million by agreeing to sign-and-trade deals with their three remaining free agents in Charlie Brown Jr., DaQuan Jeffries and Duane Washington Jr. (More on the Washington situation later!) But just adding that $6 million wasn’t going to get it done. Sure, it solves the Knicks hard-cap issues, but it wouldn’t work for the Wolves. Because Minnesota is already over the second apron, they aren’t allowed to take back more money than they send out in a deal.

Enter the Charlotte Hornets.

The Hornets are sitting well below the luxury tax line. Charlotte also has their full Room Exception remaining, which can now be used as a Trade Exception under the new CBA.

Those two things will allow the Hornets to pick up three extra second-round picks, plus enough cash to cover the salaries for Brown, Jeffries and Washington, with a little extra to boot. All at the expense of a few roster spots for a short amount of time.

Back to the Knicks creativity for a moment…

When New York made the Bridges trade, the issue of “stacking minimum contracts” came up. To keep it simple, the Knicks couldn’t just pile up a host of players on minimum contracts to get to the salary-matching they needed to avoid a first apron hard cap. That’s part of why Shake Milton was signed-and-traded to Brooklyn in that deal.

This trade had the same issue. In order to get around that, Brown, Jeffries and Washington will each be paid slightly more than the minimum in Year 1 of their new three-year contracts (a sign-and-trade deal has to be for a minimum of three years, but only Year 1 needs to be fully guaranteed). That minor bump in salary will avoid the “stacking minimum contracts” restriction.

As for the future cap sheet, the Knicks are as locked-in to their new core of Towns, Bridges and holdovers Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart as you can be in the current NBA. Brunson and Anunoby are under contract for the next five seasons. Towns and Hart are under contract for the next four seasons. Bridges has only two seasons left on his deal, but is expected to add up to four additional years to his deal in the summer of 2025.

Now, even with Brunson signing an under-market extension, the Knicks are still going to be dealing with the tax aprons for foreseeable future. That’s going to make filling out the rest of the roster a bit of a challenge. New York is going to have to hit on some minimum signings and whatever draft picks they have left. They may have to get creative in future trades. Re-signing a player or two as future tradable salary is also in play, as that’s a tactic that apron teams have begun employing this offseason.

But here’s the kicker: the Knicks front office has shown the ability to get creative to get deals done. If their scouting is solid, and they are able to develop the players they acquire, New York should be just fine to make it work.

Now, let’s go on the court!

The Knicks needed a center in the wake of the Mitchell Robinson injury. Sure, they talked about playing Julius Randle at the five, and they like Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims as depth options at center. But with Robinson sidelined to open the season, manning the middle was going to be an issue for the Knicks.

Karl-Anthony Towns solves that. Towns is drastically different from both Randle and Robinson. Those two often get it done via brute force. Towns is one of the best shooting fives the NBA has ever seen, and he’s not afraid to get down on the block to score either. He won’t do it off the bounce like Randle, nor will he play above the rim like Robinson, but Towns is a solid scorer at every level. The Knicks gave up some on-ball creation by trading Randle, and they gave up a really good perimeter shooter in Donte DiVincenzo. But New York’s offense should still be very, very good. The Towns-Jalen Brunson combo is going to be a handful in the two-man game. Towns’ shooting will open the floor for Brunson and Mikal Bridges to attack off the bounce, which should open up the drive-and-kick game to create shots for OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and others.

On the other end of the court, the Knicks defense is going to have some issues. Towns isn’t as bad as he’s sometimes painted as being, but he’s not exactly good either. New York is now small with Brunson and slow with Towns. Those are two attack-points that opponents will go after repeatedly, especially because Bridges, Anunoby and Hart are all good to excellent defenders.

But there’s a fix for that once Robinson is healthy. When that day comes, Towns can slide down a position and play alongside a rim-running, shot-blocking center again, which was a successful alignment in Minnesota. That will see Hart go to the bench, but that will help solve for New York’s lack of depth.

In the short-term, the Knicks have a lot of work to do and not a lot of time to do it in. Tom Thibodeau has to get his new-look lineup on the same page. New York has to figure out rotations, with three of last season’s key players out of the mix. The defense probably won’t be as strong, but the offense should eventually be better. The Knicks traded some top-tier offensive rebounding and forcefulness in the paint for better shooting and spacing. That’s a workable swap.

One other short-term consideration: filling out the roster. New York has to eventually get to 14 players on standard contracts. As it stands now, they’ll have just 12 players post-trade. The Knicks are also about $3.6 million under the second apron, at which they are hard-capped. That means for now, New York has enough room to sign one player to a veteran minimum deal, which runs about $2.1 million for this season. Landry Shamet is reportedly the leader to get this spot, as he’s already in camp with the Knicks on a non-guaranteed Exhibit 9 contract.

That leaves about $1.5 million to fill the 14th spot. That’s not enough for a one- or two-year veteran minimum deal, so the Knicks will have to sign a player to a rookie minimum deal. But that’s not as simple as finding any rookie and plugging them in. A rookie who the Knicks don’t own draft rights for would come with a tax variance of the two-year veteran minimum amount of just over $2.1 million. That won’t fit under the second apron hard cap.

So, look for the Knicks to take one of two actions. They’ll either convert or sign one of their rookies that are currently on two-way contracts (Ariel Hukporti or Kevin McCullar). Or the Knicks could sign any one of the 13 former draft picks that they retain rights for. By signing a player they currently have or had draft rights for, New York will avoid the tax variance issue and can slide the player into that open 14th roster spot.

That leaves the team with one open roster spot, but they won’t have enough room under the second apron hard cap to fill that spot until later in the season. Or if New York makes another trade where they send out more money than they take back, they could create the room to fill that 15th spot sooner.

(There’s a very unlikely situation where New York could sign three rookies who they have or had draft rights for, but that’d be leaving an already thin bench with some very inexperience players.) 

In the longer-term, the Knicks can still play big when Robinson gets healthy. They can go smaller and quicker with Towns surrounded by guards and wings. New York is about out of tradeable draft picks, but they do have a few players they can still offer up in future deal, with Robinson chief among them.

Also thinking long-term, don’t discount the James Nnaji acquisition as just a toss-in to make the deal work. Nnaji is an interesting prospect. The 6-foot-11, 20-year-old big man is extremely raw. Think Mitchell Robinson, but less refined. Starting to get the picture?

At 2023 Summer League, Nnaji blocked 12 shots in about 105 minutes. He also snagged 38 rebounds during that time, with 14 of them coming on the offense glass. Nnaji’s range is measured in inches and everything is being done purely on instinct, but there’s an athleticism and power there that is very Robinson-like.

Sadly, last season with Barcelona was largely a wash. Nnaji barely saw any meaningful run for one of the better teams in Europe. Following last season, he had back surgery, which is also at least somewhat worrisome. All in all, Nnaji isn’t a major addition, but he’s a nice flyer to have around to see if he develops into something.

Are the Knicks better following this trade? That’s unclear. They’re certainly different. It feels like they have a higher ceiling, as Towns is such a special offensive player. But the lack of depth and the injury histories of Towns and Anunoby, along with less on-ball creation, gives the Knicks a lower floor. If nothing else, this is the kind of daring and creative deal that has been in short supply around the NBA in recent years.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Incoming salary: $43.0 million in 2024-25 (pre-trade bonus for Julius Randle)

  • Julius Randle (PF, two years, $59.9 million (pre-trade bonus), second year player option), Donte DiVincenzo (SG, three years, $35.9 million), Keita Bates-Diop (SF, one year, $2.6 million)

Outgoing salary: $49.2 million in 2024-25

  • Karl-Anthony Towns (C/PF, four years, $220.4 million)

The Minnesota Timberwolves were set to be the NBA’s second-most expensive team this season, behind only the Phoenix Suns. That was tenable for this season and this season only. Something was eventually going to give and some money was going to have to come off the Wolves books as soon as next summer.

Instead of making one more run with largely the same group as the prior season, Minnesota chose to start resetting their books now. However, rather than simply dumping salary, the Timberwolves made a deal that should keep them near the top of the Western Conference, while shoring up a major hole on the roster.

Let’s start with the cap and tax implications. Saving a bit over $6 million this season is nice for Minnesota. But it’s the long-term savings where the Wolves really make out.

Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert both have player options for the 2025-26 season. At this point, it’s far too early to project what either player is going to do. There’s a world where both players could pick up those options and delay free agency until 2026. They could opt out and re-sign with the Timberwolves. They could both come to extension agreements in advance.

The one thing that is certain: Minnesota is in full control as soon as the summer of 2026. Instead of having about $145 million on the books for only six players that summer, the Wolves have just $98 million committed for five players.

Now, it’s fair to suggest that more moves will happen over the next two seasons that will eat into that cap flexibility. But there’s $57 million off the books for that season. There’s a world where even a re-signed Gobert and Randle are only slightly north of that figure combined.

Essentially, by taking Towns contract off the books (it was going to be him, Gobert or the unimaginable exit of Naz Reid happening by next summer), Minnesota saved a little money now and freed up some major long-term flexibility. If Randle and/or Gobert leave as soon as the summer of 2025, that flexibility comes even sooner.

This is Anthony Edwards’ team now, if it wasn’t already. He’s a superstar and he’s the guy the Wolves will orbit everything around moving forward. Now, they have the flexibility to do that in a way that they didn’t before this trade.

Let’s flip things to on the court now!

In a vacuum, Karl-Anthony Towns is a better offensive player than Julius Randle. Minnesota will miss Towns outside shooting and his all-around offensive excellence.

But basketball isn’t played in a vacuum. One undoing for the Timberwolves in last season’s playoffs was a lack of on-ball creation. Everything fell to Edwards. Now, Minnesota’s star has some help in that area.

For all of Randle’s shortcomings as a shooter and sometimes sloppiness as a playmaker, he’s good with the ball. Randle can bulldoze his way to the rim with regularity. He’s generally a good passer. And sometimes Randle’s jumper is falling. (Randle has had this odd every-other-year thing where he goes back and forth from a passable three-point shooter to an awful one.)

That’s partially where Donte DiVincenzo comes in. The Wolves wing/guard rotation behind Anthony Edwards was a little shaky. Joe Ingles is more of a smaller four now than he is a wing. Terrence Shannon Jr. is a rookie and Nickeil Alexander-Walker is more of a combo guard.

DiVincenzo is primarily a shooting guard, but he can play small forward and he can also swing over to point guard too. No matter the position, he’s an elite off-ball player. The last two seasons DiVincenzo has shot 40% on 7.1 three-point attempts per game. He’s also a better-than-you-think rebounder and passer too.

Randle is a drastically different player from Towns, but he’s not necessarily a step backwards. DiVincenzo is a huge upgrade for a bench that felt one player short. Factor in that Naz Reid will now have more runway as a stretch big, and it doesn’t feel like Minnesota downgraded much at all.

Where this trade stings is emotionally. The Timberwolves invested nine years in Karl-Anthony Towns, and Towns invested nine years in the team and the state of Minnesota. This past season was the highest heights the franchise has hit, possibly ever. This upcoming season looked like a good bet to be another successful one.

It’s hard to pivot from that, especially with a loyal player who meant so much to the franchise. But the best front offices have to be daring and unconventional. The easy thing would have been to run it back, see what this season brought, and then go about cutting costs next summer.

By getting in front of this situation, and coming away with two players who can play and an additional first-round pick (let’s not forget Minnesota is still a bit pick poor after the Gobert trade), is good work. It’s not the way most front offices would do things, but you don’t get anywhere by being the same as everyone else, just more expensive.

Charlotte Hornets

Incoming salary: $6.8 million in 2024-25

  • Charlie Brown Jr. (SG, three years, $7.6 million (only Year 1 guaranteed)), DaQuan Jeffries (SG, three years, $8.3 million (only Year 1 guaranteed)), Duane Washington Jr. (SG, three years, $7.2 million (only Year 1 guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $0.0 million in 2024-25

  • None

The Charlotte Hornets are acting as the facilitator here. This deal doesn’t get done without Charlotte’s involvement. And, as a fun little bonus, the Hornets got to make a little history too.

Under the new CBA, teams can use the unused portion of their Room Exception (or the Taxpayer or Non-Taxpayer MLE) as a Trade Exception. The Hornets are the first team to take advantage of that, by using most of their Room Exception as the mechanism to acquire Charlie Brown Jr., DaQuan Jeffries and Duane Washington Jr.

With all due respect to Brown, Jeffries and Washington, none of them are likely to be in Charlotte this season. The Hornets already have a full roster in terms of standard contracts. They’re also acquiring $7.2 million in this deal, which will cover what they are eating in salaries for the Brown, Jeffries and Washington trio for this season, plus a bit more.

As for long-term cap and tax impacts, there are none. While a sign-and-trade deal has to be for a minimum of three seasons, only Year 1 has to be fully guaranteed. Charlotte will very likely waive all three players, who got a nice payday simply for signing their names to a contract, and next summer the dead money will come off the books entirely.

The real win for Charlotte is picking up three extra second-round picks. Given the way teams move second picks these days, having a handful of additional picks in your stash is always a good thing. And who knows, maybe one ends up being a value pick near the top of the second round?

The Hornets did give up the draft rights to James Nnaji in this deal. As we covered in the Knicks section, he’s an interesting but very raw prospect. Nnaji wasn’t drafted by the current Charlotte front office, so they don’t have any real attachment to him.

Lastly, the NBA is all about relationships. Jeff Peterson is just getting started with running the Hornets front office. Charlotte’s ownership is still relatively new too. Helping to facilitate deals like this is a good way to build cache around the league. Don’t be surprised if Peterson hooks up with the Knicks and/or Timberwolves on future trades.

The Duane Washington Jr. Situation

We have one more thing to cover as part of this trade, because it’s endlessly fascinating.

At the start of the offseason, Duane Washington Jr. became an unrestricted free agent. He had finished a second two-way contract with the New York Knicks, who elected not to tender him a qualifying offer to make Washington a restricted free agent.

Despite a solid Summer League stint for the Knicks, Washington didn’t sign an NBA contract. In late-July, Washington signed a deal with KK Partizan in Serbia.

Wait…if Washington was signed to a deal, how in the world are the Knicks sign-and-trading him to the Charlotte Hornets to make this three-team deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves happen?

The answer is both fairly simple, while the process is fairly complex.

The simple answer is the NBA does not regard non-NBA contracts when considering a player’s NBA free agent status. So, despite Washington having a deal with Partizan, he’s still considered an NBA unrestricted free agent and the Knicks still hold his free agent rights.

Here’s where things start to get a little complicated…

After a couple of silly situations where NBA teams signed-and-traded players who had retired from the league in order to make trade math work (Hi Keith Van Horn!), the CBA was changed. In order to sign-and-trade a player now, that player has to have completed the previous season as a member of your roster.

Because Washington finished last season with the Knicks on a two-way contract, he’s eligible to be a part of a sign-and-trade.

But we still have the fact that Washington is signed with Partizan. And that’s where things get really complicated.

The Knicks did not want to have amend this trade to include a rostered player like Miles McBride simply to make the math work. New York is already thin on depth after this trade, so they really didn’t want to move a rotation player for salary-matching purposes.

This is where creativity and partnerships take over. Signing-and-trading Washington was clearly the best option to get this trade across the finish line. To make that happen, New York had to convince Partizan to play ball.

On one hand, Partizan loses nothing by releasing Washington to be a part of this deal, then re-signing him after he clears waivers from the Hornets. But, alas, things aren’t so simple!

The first issue is that it takes time for a player to receive what is called a Letter of Clearance (LOC) from FIBA. You may remember this from the Sasha Vezenkov situation this summer. FIBA has to clear players to sign contracts when coming to or from leagues under their jurisdiction.

So, in order to be signed-and-traded by the Knicks to the Hornets, Washington had to get a LOC from FIBA that says he’s free and clear from his contract with Partizan. Then, to re-sign with Partizan after clearing waivers from Charlotte, Washington has to get another LOC from FIBA.

All of that takes time. No matter how much the Hornets and Washington might want to set him free, there’s still a 48-hour waiver period in the NBA. And that’s if the FIBA LOC process is expedited very quickly.

And that’s where it gets even more complicated.

Partizan’s season has already started. Not only did Washington play in each of Partizan’s first two games, he started those games. In the first game of the season, the 6-foot-2 guard scored 13 points in 14 minutes. So, it’s safe to say that Washington is a key member of the team.

Making the timing tricky to pull all of this off, Partizan has a string of important EuroLeague contests over the next two weeks. While there wasn’t any reason financially for Partizan to not be good partners in terms of this trade, they aren’t going to want to be down an important player for some key upcoming games.

As it stands, Washington will miss Partizan’s EuroLeague game against Baskonia on October 3. It’s possible that he could be back in the lineup for an Adriatic League game against KK Cibona on October 6. A more likely scenario is that Washington is back for a EuroLeague game against Real Madrid on October 10.

It’s unknown at this point what Partizan is getting paid in terms of a buyout for Washington in this whole process. What is known is that Washington is going to get roughly $2.3 million in NBA salary for this season, while taking a short amount of time off from Partizan, for essentially signing his name a few times on various documents.

All around, this might be the first time we saw a multi-team, multi-league, multi-continent trade in NBA history. This entire process also proves that while it may be hard, make that VERY hard, for teams dealing with apron issues and hard caps to make big trades, it can be done. It just takes some creativity, partnerships and relationships to make it happen. Oh, and a handful of second-round picks too. Don’t ever forget the second-round picks.

 

Keith SmithSeptember 25, 2024

The openings of NBA training camps are just around the corner. The Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets open this week, as they are headed to Abu Dhabi for a pair of preseason games. A week later, the other 28 teams will spring into action.

NBA training camp doesn’t come with the excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller roster and more guaranteed money mean that NBA rosters are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots will play out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going to going team by team and look some of the most interesting battles to monitor as training camps open. We previously covered the Southwest Division. Next up are the Northwest Division teams!

Denver Nuggets

Bench Minutes

Christian Braun is the leader to replace Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the starting lineup. That leaves his spot as the Nuggets sixth man open. Figuring that out, plus the rest of the bench minutes, is what Michael Malone is tasked with this preseason, and likely in the early part of the regular season.

Here’s what we can bank on: Russell Westbrook will play as the backup point guard. Dario Saric probably has the inside track on the backup big minutes. From there, it’s pretty open. Ideally, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther will be ready to take on the wing minutes. Keep an eye on Vlatko Cancar getting the mix for backup forward minutes. He looked primed for a rotation role before getting hurt in the summer of 2023.

It's a shame that DaRon Holmes got hurt, because he would have seen some backup big man minutes. As it stands, that probably opens the door for Zeke Nnaji to get another crack at locking down a rotation role.

Denver is a living example of how hard it can be to keep a title window fully open. That’s especially true in the new world with the various apron restrictions. The Nuggets could have kept Caldwell-Pope (at the expense of a bigger tax bill) and continued to try to develop the younger players on the bench. Alas, they didn’t, and now those kids need to be ready to play and ready to play right now.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Bench Wings

The Timberwolves starting lineup is locked in. The backup big minutes are handled by the eminently capable Naz Reid. Rob Dillingham will get the first crack at backing up Mike Conley at point guard. That leaves the backup wings as the only spots up in the air as training camp begins.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker will fill one of those spots, but he’s more of a combo guard than a true wing. That leaves open minutes for a bigger wing. The three contenders are veteran Joe Ingles, third-year player Josh Minott and rookie Terrence Shannon Jr.

Ingles will probably get the first crack at regular minutes. Even at his advanced age, he’s still a good ball-mover and good shooter. Ingles is more of a “defend up” guy, as he’ll take on bigger (read: slower) threes and fours, as opposed to sliding down to defend guards. In many ways, he’s a better-shooting, worse-at-everything-else version of Kyle Anderson.

Minott is still a mystery box. There’s potential there. His limited NBA minutes haven’t yielded much, but his G League profile shows a lot. Minott is a pretty versatile defender. He’s also athletic and a solid finisher. For him to grab regular minutes, he’s going to have to hit three-pointers at a far better clip than he’s shown so far.

In an ideal world, Shannon will be ready sooner, rather than later. Shannon has good size for a wing. He can also score in a number of ways, including hitting spot-up shots. Shannon will have to earn the trust of Chris Finch by proving he can compete on defense before he’ll get minutes.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Start Big or Start Small

The Thunder don’t have anyone really fighting for a roster spot. After a few years of drafting, trading and tinkering, the roster is now well-established. Maybe a few guys could be fighting for minutes, but we have a good amount of data that says Mark Daigneault will use everyone enough to keep them engaged.

That really leaves the only question as: Should the Thunder start big or start small?

OKC added Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso as their big moves this summer. Either player could start and either player could come off the bench. Until last season, Daigneault was fairly fluid with his starting groups. So, maybe he returns to that and moves the two veterans in and out based on matchups.

If the Thunder go with Hartenstein, they’ll morph from a relatively small team to a relatively big one. Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren would rival the biggest starting frontcourts in the league. Jalen Williams and Lu Dort both have good size/bulk for the wing, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the bigger point guards in the NBA.

If Caruso starts, Oklahoma City will look a lot like last year’s team, but a touch smaller. The defense will still be terrific, and Caruso is a better shooter than Josh Giddey, who he was acquired for. The difference will be coming with Hartenstein off the bench, which is a lot more size than last year’s team could bring in on the second unit.

Bonus: Keep an eye on rookie Dillon Jones forcing his way into the rotation. Kenrich Williams is going to miss some time to open the season. That opens up room for another wing to snag some minutes. Jones is the type do-some-of-everything player that has excelled for the Thunder over the years.

Portland Trail Blazers

Kids vs Vets

Portland is going to be terrible this season. They’re the odds-on favorite to be the worst team in the Western Conference, and probably by a wide margin. That makes this a rebuilding/development season.

But it’s not quite that simple for the Trail Blazers.

Portland has a lot of veterans who are good players and they’re going to play, at least for the first few months of the season. Guys like Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams are all going to see minutes. If nothing else, the Blazers need to build up the trade value for those players as best as they can.

This team also has a lot of kids who need to play. Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe need minutes and a long leash to play through mistakes. Donovan Clingan is the future in the middle, but he’s got to compete with both Ayton and Williams for minutes. Toumani Camara established himself as an NBA guy last year, but he’s in a crowded forward mix.

Portland also has mid-career guys like Anfernee Simons and Deni Avdija, who are going to play a lot too. Neither player is old enough to be out of the mix on the rebuilding Blazers, but neither is a young building block either. The story for both of them is far from written.

Chauncey Billups has his work cut out for him this season. He’s got somewhere between 10 and 13 players who could all have a case to play. And a handful of those guys can’t really play together in functional lineups. Good luck balancing all of that in what’s going to be a push-pull kind of season in Portland.

Utah Jazz

Kids vs Vets

Hey! It’s the same thing! But it’s different in Utah than it is in Portland.

The Jazz have a handful of veterans who have shown when they are healthy (or at least allowed to play) that they can be a solid team. Utah has been in contention for a postseason spot in each of the last two seasons before pivoting towards development (read: prioritizing ping-pong balls).

Lauri Markkanen is as close to a franchise player as the Jazz have, so he’s going to play a lot. Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson are productive veteran guards. As long as they are healthy, they’re also going to play. John Collins seemed to find his jumper and his game again, so he’ll play too. The question for Collins is if he’ll start or come off the bench.

From there, it’s a whole bunch of kids and some well-placed veterans who can play, but won’t gripe if they’re behind younger players.

Look for the Jazz to try to get Walker Kessler back on track. Taylor Hendricks and Cody Williams may well be the wing duo of the future in Utah. Isaiah Collier was a highly-regarded prospect who the Jazz got late in the first round. Kyle Filipowski slid to the second round, but Utah gave him a bunch of guaranteed money because they think highly of him. Brice Sensabaugh flashed as a rookie and looked terrific in Summer League. Last but far from least, is Keyonte George, who already established himself as a starter with solid rookie season.

Whew…that’s a lot of guys. In reality, Will Hardy could play almost any of the 15 players the Jazz have on standard contracts and it would be ok. Look for this year to feature more of the kids earlier on. Utah has an extremely difficult uphill battle to get into postseason contention in the Western Conference right from the jump this season. That probably leans more toward development earlier on, while looking at trades for the non-Markkanen vets on the roster.

Keith SmithSeptember 23, 2024

The openings of NBA training camps are just around the corner. The Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets open this week, as they are headed to Abu Dhabi for a pair of preseason games. A week later, the other 28 teams will spring into action.

NBA training camp doesn’t come with the same level of excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller roster and more guaranteed money mean that NBA rosters are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots will play out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going to go team by team and look some of the most interesting battles to monitor as training camps open. First up are the Southwest Division teams!

Dallas Mavericks

Starting Small Forward

Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington all seem locked in as starters. At some point, Dereck Lively will overtake Daniel Gafford for good (and it may be on opening night). At small forward it seems pretty simple: It’s Klay Thompson…right?

Yes, at least initially. Thompson was brought to Dallas to start. But what if Naji Marshall’s shooting improvement last season is real? Did you know that Marshall and Thompson both shot 38.7% from three last year? And Marshall wasn’t benefitting from Stephen Curry’s gravity, nor the playmaking he’ll get this season with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving setting him up. At this point, Marshall is also a better and more versatile defender than Thompson is.

Thompson will open the season as a starter, but Marshall is going to push him. And don’t bet against Marshall eventually snagging a starting spot of his own. He brings too many tools to Dallas to keep him off the floor for long.

Houston Rockets

Forward Rotation

The Rockets forward rotation is an example of a good problem to have. Houston is set at the guard position with Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson and rookie Reed Sheppard. At center the Rockets have Alperen Sengun and a terrific veteran backup in Steven Adams.

That means sorting out the forward position will have to be done without sliding a player either up or down a position when the team is healthy. And sorting it out is a tough, but welcomed challenge. Jabari Smith Jr. and Dillon Brooks will start. Tari Eason (who has returned to full health) and Cam Whitmore seemed poised to get the first cracks at backup minutes. That leaves veteran Jeff Green and wing Jae’Sean Tate on the outside looking in.

This is by no means a bad thing. The Rockets have rebuilt their depth with some good drafting and smart veteran acquisitions. Now, it’s up to Ime Udoka to figure out how to make it all work as Houston chases a postseason spot.

Memphis Grizzlies

Small Forward Rotation

Memphis should be back to relatively full health to open the 2024-25 season. That means instead of showing up each day and hoping to just have eight players healthy enough to play, Taylor Jenkins will have to make some real lineup decisions.

Nowhere is that more prevalent than at the small forward spot. The plan last season was that Marcus Smart would get those minutes initially, in addition to functioning as the backup point guard. That may still be the plan, and would give the Grizzlies three ballhandlers and playmakers in their starting lineup, with Ja Morant and Desmond Bane both healthy as well.

Vince Williams Jr. emerged out of the mess of last season as a legitimate NBA rotation player, and a potential starter. GG Jackson showed plenty of potential last season, after starting the year on a two-way deal. Unfortunately, Jackson is going to miss the start of the season after surgery to repair a facture in his right foot. Jake LaRavia also showed signs of real improvement late last season.

With a healthy roster – minus Jackson – Jenkins has the versatility to play this a few different ways, even before Jackson returns. He could also choose to go smaller at times by inserting Luke Kennard or John Konchar to get more shooting on the floor. Getting this particular position solved has been a real challenge during the Grizzlies rise. This time around, they seem to have the players to find a workable solution.

New Orleans Pelicans

Everyone Everywhere All At Once Except a Center

New Orleans has a ton of talent. Like, really, a TON of talent. Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Dejounte Murray, C.J. McCollum, Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III are all starting-caliber players.

Sadly, none of them are a center.

The means the Pelicans have six starters for four spots. (We didn’t forget Jose Alvarado, who will see backup PG minutes. Or Jordan Hawkins, but who knows how he gets minutes?) Unless Willie Green goes super non-traditional and decides to go small and run Williamson as his starting center, this could be an issue for New Orleans that only a trade will fix. And big trades this late in the offseason are fairly uncommon, as are major early-season deals.

Now, for what it’s worth, Basketball Reference says Williamson has logged about 9% of his career minutes as a center. Last season was the most he’s run at the five at 14%. And that was while playing the most games and minutes in his career.

But playing center and starting at center are two pretty different things. The former is something we’ll probably see quite a bit. The latter is something the Pelicans will probably be loathe to do. That means we’re going to see Daniel Theis or Karlo Matkovic or Yves Missi (if either of the latter two are ready as rookies) as at least the opener, and playing the first 5-8 minutes of each half.

Beyond the whole “Who plays center?” stuff is that the Pelicans still have six starters. Barring a trade, we can write Williamson, Ingram and Murray into the lineup in pen. Does McCollum’s veteran-standing lock him into the fifth spot? (Total aside: McCollum might be able to add another two or three productive years onto his career by transitioning into a bench role, a la Eric Gordon over the last several seasons.) Jones is one of the best defensive players on the planet. You don’t get the most out of him by bringing him in against second-line players. Murphy is a bouncy shooter, who is ready for a full-scale know-him-on-a-national-level breakout season.

Having talent is huge in the NBA. But building a team isn’t a fantasy basketball exercise. Real teams need to function. Sometimes you have too many guys. And sometimes that turns sour. The three forms of currency in the NBA are salary, minutes and shots. The Pelicans are coming short in the latter two, which impact the first one. Willie Green has a tricky situation to sort out and some difficult conversations to have, probably as early as Day 1 of camp.

San Antonio Spurs

Wing/Guard Rotation

The earth may orbit the sun, but in San Antonio everything orbits around Victor Wembanyama. All that really matters for the Spurs over the course of this year is finding out who fits with the generational young star and who doesn’t. To further those efforts, the Spurs added Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes as veterans to help a young team find their way.

The frontcourt seems fairly stable. Wembanyama and Barnes will be joined by Jeremy Sochan and Zach Collins as the primary frontcourt guys. Depending on lineups, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie and Malaki Branham will get the remaining small forward minutes.

Paul and Vassell will start at the two guard spots. It’s behind them where things will take some sorting out. Tre Jones has earned the right to at least open the season backing up Paul. But rookie guard Stephon Castle is going to push Jones and push him hard for the backup role. By the end of the season, the Spurs would love to see Castle putting himself in the mix to start in 2025-26.

If Castle is off the ball or in a secondary ballhandler role to open the year, that pushes Branham into a tough spot where he’s kind of a backup small forward. And there probably aren’t any minutes left for Blake Wesley at all. That’s two former first-round picks on the outside looking in.

None of this is a bad thing. The cream will rise to the top and no one is being gifted minutes in San Antonio. Whoever emerges will have earned their time. Paul and Barnes aren’t likely to be long-term Spurs. Their job is to get the young guys ready, even if that means it’s at their own expense minutes- and role-wise. Gregg Popovich and the front office are going to develop guys to play with Wembanyama or they’re going to go get them. And it’s going to happen sooner, rather than later.

 

Keith SmithSeptember 13, 2024

The Boston Celtics have committed a lot of money to their roster for this season and for the next several years. Over $1.1 billion in guaranteed money, in fact. That’s a whole lot committed salary. More than any NBA team has ever locked in for in history.

However, as lyrical philosophers A Tribe Called Quest taught us (and Oklahoma City Thunder executive Sam Presti later referenced): “Scared money don’t make none”.

We recently examined how teams are building their rosters in the Apron Era. Some were conservative. Some made trades before hitting the first or second apron. Others focused on adding talent on minimum contracts. A few teams kind of threw their hands up and did nothing.

The Celtics loaded up pre-Apron Era and then went way past being in for a penny, in for pound. Boston is in for over 100 billion pennies and over one billion pounds. That’s an indisputable fact. The real question: Will this kind of roster building work?

So far, so good from the Celtics perspective. They won the 2024 NBA Finals, which justified a $44 million tax bill on top of $185 million in salaries for a total outlay of nearly a quarter-of-a-billion dollars.

It’s hard to argue against the approach right now. But is that approach sustainable long term? Unlike all of the other apron teams, which have fairly easy pathways out of their current situations, Boston seems pretty locked in. As much as that’s fine for right now, how will it look in two or three or four seasons?

While that question is completely fair, it’s also worrying about things down the line more than things right now. If we overly focus on the future, we often fail to thrive in the present.

In every possible way, the Celtics are content to let tomorrow’s problems be tomorrow’s problems. Today, there’s another title to chase.

Recently, Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla said he doesn’t really like the term “defending a title”. He prefers for his team to stay on the attack. Yes, the Celtics won the 2024 title. They’ll celebrate that again on opening night with rings and an NBA-record 18th banner being raised to the rafters.

Then the game will tip and the focus will turn to winning Banner 19. That’s how it works in Boston. You celebrate a title, then you chase the next one. What you’ve done is important and to be celebrated, but never at the expense of what comes next.

That mindset has informed the Celtics roster building strategy. For years, with roughly the same core, Boston chased Banner 18. As they finally secured it, Brad Stevens and staff went about making sure they’d be able go after Banner 19 and beyond. But that process actually started about a year in advance.


In late June of 2023 news broke that the Boston Celtics were close to acquiring Kristaps Porzingis from the Washington Wizards in a three-team deal that would send Malcolm Brogdon to the LA Clippers. That deal fell apart when the Clippers expressed concerns over Brogdon’s health.

Boston quickly pivoted to the Memphis Grizzlies and trading Marcus Smart. With how quickly the Celtics pivoted on that deal, there’s at least a decent chance that Boston and Memphis had previously discussed a deal centered around Smart.

At any rate, Boston now had Porzingis in the fold and had started the process of resetting around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who Brad Stevens had previously called the organization’s “pillars”.

Fast forward a few months, and the Celtics – who fortunately still had Brogdon and his $22 million salary – traded for Jrue Holiday. This deal happened only a few days after Holiday had been traded to the Portland Trail Blazers, who were rebuilding in the wake of dealing Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks in the same deal.

Now, you’re probably saying “I know Boston got Porzingis and Holiday. Great moves, but that’s ancient history. Why does this matter now?”

When the new CBA went into effect, NBA teams were given what we like to call a “get your books in order” years. Whenever the NBA makes major changes to the cap or luxury system/structure, they give teams an opportunity to line things up for success cap- and tax-wise. In the past, this manifested in the form of an “amnesty provision” through which teams were able to wipe an unwanted contract off their cap sheet.

This time around, the league and union gave teams a buffer year. Some of the burdensome restrictions around the luxury tax and the first and second tax aprons started with the 2023-24 season, but the bulk of them would kick in with the 2024-25 season.

Many teams took advantage of this buffer year and set the stage to drop under the tax or one of the two aprons. The Celtics, and a few others, looked around and said “Last chance to load up!” and went for it.

Had the opportunities to acquire Porzingis and Holiday come a year later, under the full weight of the tax and apron restrictions, Boston might not have either player. They certainly wouldn’t have both players.

Both deals also came with some questions. Porzingis was an injury risk. Holiday was aging and coming off a rough 2023 playoffs. Both Porzingis and Holiday were also entering the final guaranteed years of their contracts. Given the cost (in terms of salary/tax and trading beloved players), both at the time and down the line, these weren’t no-risk acquisitions.

For the first time in a long time, the Celtics chose to go for it right now and to let tomorrow’s problems be tomorrow’s problems.


Shortly after acquiring Kristaps Porzingis, the team signed him to a two-year, $60 million extension. A couple of weeks later, the Celtics and Jaylen Brown signed the then-largest contract in NBA history with a five-year, $285.4 million extension.

After trading for Jrue Holiday on the eve of training camp, Brad Stevens was cautious of running afoul of NBA extension rules and would only say versions of “We hope Jrue is here for a long time”. It was clear there was more to come.

Before the season started, Boston and backup guard Payton Pritchard inked a four-year, $30 million extension. A more then reasonable deal, but yet another added long-term expense.

In season, the Celtics added Xavier Tillman Sr. and Jaden Springer ahead of the trade deadline. Tillman was acquired with the team saying they hoped he wouldn’t just be a rest-of-season addition. Springer came with an additional year left on his rookie scale deal of $4 million for the 2025-26 season.

Then, with the season wrapping up and extension restrictions lifted, Boston took care of keeping Holiday in town with a four-year, $134.4 million extension.

Roughly two months later the Celtics raised the Larry O’Brien trophy.


Preceding the title run, Boston added nearly $514 million in long-term salary through trades and extensions. But Brad Stevens and the Celtics weren’t done. When you’re in for half-a-billion pounds, you might as well be in for a billion pounds.

Things started off fairly relaxed. Boston re-signed Luke Kornet and Xaiver Tillman Sr. to minimum deals. One year for Kornet and two years for Tillman. On top of the two veterans, Neemias Queta signed on for three more years too. With Kristaps Porzingis set to miss the start of the season, the Celtics secured some frontcourt depth.

That trio of deals was Stevens cracking his knuckles before sitting down to bang out a concerto of spending.

Boston then extended Jayson Tatum on the currently-largest contract in NBA history of five years and a projected $313.9 million. Combined with Jaylen Brown’s extension, the pillars are in place for years to come.

The Celtics weren’t done.

Derrick White signed a somewhat surprising extension of $125.9 million over four years. The surprising part was that the Celtics got White for the most they could offer him under the veteran extension rules. White spoke often of finding a home in Boston and didn’t seek to cash in on his growing profile as much as he may have. That’s a major win for the guys in green.

Channeling Danny Ocean saying “You think we need one more?”, Stevens went back to work one more time.

Sam Hauser completed the extension/re-signing splurge by inking a four-year, $45 million deal.

All in all, after dropping nearly $514 million in new deals last season, the champs added nearly $500 million more in new contracts this offseason.

By acquiring (and then extending) Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday before they wouldn’t have been able to, then extending or re-signing almost everyone else, the Celtics have over $1 billion in committed salary on their books through the 2029-30 season. Oh, and the team is for sale too. That was one of the last newsy dominoes to fall this summer in Boston.

Will a new ownership group look at the cap sheet and decide it’s all too much? Will the team not win at a high enough level to justify spending that much? Will the considerable roster-building restrictions for a second apron team mean shedding a salary or two? Only time will bring those answers.

The Celtics are letting tomorrow’s problems be tomorrow’s problems.


For several years running, the Boston Celtics were a good, but never great team. They made the Eastern Conference Finals in three of four years from 2017 through 2020. They made the 2022 NBA Finals and then back to the East Finals in 2023.

In 2024, the Celtics finally brought home Banner 18 after a 16-year wait.

However, it was that 2022 team that really broke through. After years upon years of ownership saying that they’d pay the tax for a contender, that 2022 NBA Finals appearance seemed to do the convincing. Boston paid the tax in 2023 after several years of dodging the tax (minus a slight payment in 2019). They haven’t looked back since.

Without spending what it took to bring on Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics don’t win the 2024 NBA Finals.

As A Tribe Called Quest told us: Scared money don’t make none.

Now, the Celtics have zoomed past the second apron. They aren’t quite as expensive this season as the Phoenix Suns or Minnesota Timberwolves. Boston is neck-and-neck with the Milwaukee Bucks, about $50 million behind the Wolves and $150 million behind the Suns in terms of total spending.

It’s next season and beyond when Boston takes the lead in committed salary plus tax penalties. As it stands today, for 11 players, the 2025-26 Celtics are sitting at nearly $445 million in salaries plus tax penalties. That figure will very likely zip well past half-a-billion when all is said and done.

Yes, the cap and tax are set to go up the maximum of 10% for at least each of the next few seasons. But Boston is so far over the second apron, it might take years for it come back into view again. Even in 2026-27, the Celtics are already at over $200 million on the books for just nine players.

Get ready for the term “second apron” to become a regular part of your Boston Celtics lexicon. Effectively, being over the second apron will limit the Celtics to re-signing their own players, signing their own draft picks (which may also be subject to getting moved to the end of first round), signing players to minimum contracts, and making trades where the salaries match exactly and Boston doesn’t send out more than one player.

You know what else? This team doesn’t need a lot of outside help at the moment.

The Boston Celtics went 64-18 last season with the fourth-best net rating in NBA history at +11.6. That was followed by rampaging through the playoffs at 16-3 with a +8.7 net rating. Say what you will about the competition, but that’s a historical level of dominance.

The Celtics aren’t letting worries about the future cost them anything right now. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard and the previously-extended Al Horford, all got their deals in the last year because Boston wanted to win Banner 18…and then to keep the good times rolling as long as they can.

You can’t ignore the future. Eventually, every bill comes due in the NBA. At some point, the Celtics won’t win enough to justify spending so much money.

But you can’t worry so much about what might happen two or three or four years down the road that you ruin what is pretty great right now.

The Boston Celtics have chosen to let tomorrow’s problems be tomorrow’s problems. That got them Banner 18 and it must just lead to Banner 19 and beyond too.

 

Keith SmithSeptember 05, 2024

The NBA has entered a new era in terms of roster building. It’s no longer just cap space, over the cap, or luxury tax. Now, the first apron and second apron exist.

Not only do the first and second apron exist, but the full weight of their restrictions was felt this offseason. Instead of there being three ways to get hard-capped at the tax apron, there are now six ways to get hard-capped at the first apron and four additional ways to get hard-capped at the second apron.

In addition, if you are at or over the first or second apron, there are a whole bunch of things you can’t do. This includes all the things that would have hard-capped you at either apron, as that closes the loophole of starting out expensive and getting even more so.

Finally, there are the financial penalties and draft-related penalties for being over the second apron. The CBA reduced the financial hit for being just a little over the tax, but they made it even more taxing (pun very much intended) to be deep into the tax. And if you are up and over the second apron for several years, you start to get hit with the inability to trade picks and your draft pick can even be moved to the end of the first round.

Previously, we covered how the cap space teams operated this offseason. Now, we’re going to look at the teams on the other end of spectrum.

Before we fully dive in, it’s worth nothing that there are nine teams currently over the NBA’s first apron. We’re going to cover seven of them here. The Philadelphia 76ers had a unique summer in that they used cap space, but then ended up over the first apron by virtue of re-signing Tyrese Maxey to a maximum contract. If you want to read about the Sixers summer, you can find them covered in the link above.

We’re also going to cover the Boston Celtics in a separate article, because they had an interesting summer in terms of right now and long-term.

With all that said, let’s take a look at the other seven tax apron teams.

Second Apron Teams

Milwaukee Bucks

Acquisitions

Taurean Prince (signed via Minimum Exception), Gary Trent Jr. (signed via Minimum Exception), Delon Wright (signed via Minimum Exception), A.J. Johnson (2024 first-round pick), Tyler Smith (2024 second-round pick)

Re-signings

None

Analysis

A year after an offseason marked by the Damian Lillard trade and new deals for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez, the Bucks had a far more lowkey summer. Milwaukee kept it simple, but that doesn’t mean their moves weren’t good ones.

The Bucks big win was signing Gary Trent Jr. via the Minimum Exception. When Trent got squeezed out of Toronto, there weren’t any landing spots left for more than the minimum. At least, nowhere that made sense for Trent. As it stands, should he deliver similar production to the last few years, Trent will be one of the best minimum signings the league has ever seen. He’ll add an important 3&D element for the Bucks that has been missing the last few years.

Taurean Prince and Delon Wright were terrific additions too. Prince gives the Bucks the combo forward they didn’t have last year. With Bobby Portis functioning as a third big, Prince can swing between either forward spot and give Milwaukee some shooting, defense and rebounding.

The Bucks played a lot of last season without a viable backup for Lillard. Wright will fix that. Given Milwaukee will prioritize keeping their vets healthy and rested for the postseason, having Wright will give Doc Rivers a trusted veteran behind his star point guard.

The Bucks didn’t retain any free agents from last year’s team over the offseason. With a now full roster, it’s unlikely any will return, unless it’s an in-season signing down the road.

This was an understated summer, especially compared to last year. But it was a very productive one for Milwaukee.

Phoenix Suns

Acquisitions

Tyus Jones (signed via Minimum Exception), Monte Morris (signed via Minimum Exception), Mason Plumlee (signed via Minimum Exception), Ryan Dunn (2024 first-round pick), Oso Ighodaro (2024 second-round pick)

Re-signings

Bol Bol (signed via Minimum Exception), Damion Lee (signed via Minimum Exception), Josh Okogie (signed via Early Bird rights), Royce O’Neale (signed via Bird rights)

Analysis

With the Golden State Warriors and LA Clippers resetting their rosters this offseason, Phoenix was this summer’s marquee second apron team. The Suns played “Veteran Minimum Roulette” again, but this time around the approach seems to have been more mindful of what the roster needs.

After experimenting for a season without a point guard, the Suns went out and got two really good veterans in Tyus Jones and Monte Morris. Jones was a surprise signing, but like Gary Trent Jr. with the Milwaukee Bucks, the player’s tepid market was the team’s gain. Jones should be the starting point guard for Phoenix and he’ll bring a layer of stability that the team was missing last season.

Morris is coming off a somewhat lost year, after injuries wrecked the first half of his season. Still, Morris showed with the Minnesota Timberwolves that he’s still capable of being a high-end backup. With Jones and Morris, a position that was a problem last season is no longer an issue.

Plumlee is replacing Drew Eubanks as Jusuf Nurkic’s backup. Because Plumlee is a solid screener and good passer, he’s a better fit for the Phoenix offense than Eubanks. Defensively, Plumlee won’t provide as much rim protection, but he’s a solid enough in the paint for backup minutes.

Where the Suns got creative was with their re-signings. Josh Okogie got overpaid for this season, as Phoenix basically turned him into an $8.25 million walking trade exception. While we don’t like thinking about players as strictly a cap number, that feeling is lessened when they get about four times as much as expected to become one. And if he’s not traded, Okogie could re-earn his spot as a defensive-minded guard/wing for the Suns.

Okogie needs to re-earn that spot, because Phoenix traded for Royce O’Neale last year and then re-signed him to a four-year, $42 million deal. That’s a solid value for O’Neale as a 3&D wing. And he’s very tradable on that contract too.

Should any of the veterans fail, Phoenix can turn to rookies Ryan Dunn and Oso Ighodaro. Both players were targeted draft acquisitions. They are both raw offensively, but Dunn and Ighodaro are ready to contribute on defense right away, if necessary. And it’s not like the team needs more offense.

Unlike last year, when the Suns had fill out almost the whole roster following the Bradley Beal trade, this summer was a bit more relaxed. Getting Jones and Morris for the minimum was a pair of steals. Plumlee should deliver surplus value on a minimum deal too. We’ll take a bit more of a wait-and-see approach with O’Neale and Okogie, because it feels like those stories are still developing. That’s especially true with Okogie. However, in another summer of minimums, re-signings and draft picks, James Jones and crew seem to have figured out this second apron thing better than a year ago.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Acquisitions

P.J. Dozier (signed via Minimum Exception), Joe Ingles (signed via Minimum Exception), Rob Dillingham (2024 first-round pick), Terrence Shannon Jr. (2024 first-round pick)

Re-signings

Luka Garza (signed via Early Bird rights)

Analysis

After a 2023 summer that saw the Minnesota Timberwolves vault well past the second apron for the foreseeable future, the Wolves were more measured this summer. However, Tim Connelly and staff got creative to infuse their roster with some necessary young talent.

At the draft, Minnesota pulled off a stunner by trading into the lottery to draft Rob Dillingham. Connelly gave up a future first-round pick and a future first-round swap to get Dillingham in a deal with the San Antonio Spurs. This isn’t quite the homerun swing that trading for Rudy Gobert was, but it’s a healthy cut nonetheless.

Dillingham will have a chance to apprentice under Mike Conley (who extended last season) for a couple of seasons. That should work out perfectly for a Wolves team that is built to contend right now. In a perfect world, as Conley ages out of being a full-time starter (or retires), Dillingham will be ready to start alongside Anthony Edwards. For a team with limited resources, due to being so expensive, this is the kind of creative move to infuse the roster with young talent that we may see become more commonplace for second apron teams.

Terrence Shannon Jr. likely would have been selected higher in the first round, had he not been dealing with legal issues ahead of the draft. (Shannon was acquitted of all charges.) He’s a lottery talent and gives Minnesota a wing shooter/scorer with good size. As the roster develops in coming years, having Shannon will help with the team’s versatility.

Free agency was predictably muted for the Timberwolves. Joe Ingles is a terrific locker room presence, and he can still shoot and move the ball when he’s needed on the floor. P.J. Dozier – a Connelly favorite – may be the interim backup for Conley until Dillingham is ready.

Unless you nail some veteran minimum signings, as the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns did, it’s hard to improve as a second apron team. However, Minnesota did well to trade into the lottery to snag Dillingham. That’s a move that should help this year, while paying off big time for years to come.

 

First Apron Teams

New York Knicks

Acquisitions

Mikal Bridges (via trade), Keita Bates-Diop (via trade), Cameron Payne (signed via Minimum Exception), Pacome Dadiet (2024 first-round pick) Tyler Kolek (2024 second-round pick)

Re-signings

OG Anunoby (signed via Bird rights), Precious Achiuwa (signed via Bird rights)

Analysis

The New York Knicks went for it this summer. After acquiring OG Anunoby ahead of last season’s trade deadline, New York doubled down on the wing by trading for Mikal Bridges. The cost was significant, but Bridges should be a perfect fit with the Villanova Knicks.

Bridges gives New York a solid scorer, who fits in perfectly in Tom Thibodeau’s defense-first, -second and -third schemes. The veteran wing was miscast as a primary scorer/creator in Brooklyn. With the Knicks, Bridges will be a better fit as a third option, who can play up as a second option when the occasion calls for it.

Anunoby was re-signed to a five-year, $212.5 million deal. That’s a significant investment, considering the Bridges trade and that Julius Randle is still in the fold. But Anunoby was terrific for the Knicks after his midseason acquisition. Like Bridges, he’s best when he’s a bit further down the pecking order on offense, and Anunoby is an excellent and versatile defender too.

Keita Bates-Diop and Cameron Payne seem like afterthought pickups now, but both veterans will stay ready and could contribute if needed.

Later in the summer, as backup big man options dwindled, the Knicks re-signed Precious Achiuwa to a one-year, $6 million deal. That’s pretty solid for an energy big off the bench. Achiuwa isn’t a perfect replacement for Isaiah Hartenstein, but the backup center market got picked over pretty quickly. Expect this to be a spot New York continues to work on throughout the season.

If all that wasn’t enough, Jalen Brunson signed a very team-friendly extension. Was that motivated by adding yet another Villanova buddy? Does Brunson just love New York that much? Did he want to make sure the team had flexibility, as opposed to cashing in for himself? Yes, yes, and yes.

Outside of the hole behind oft-injured Mitchell Robinson at the center spot, this was an outstanding summer for Leon Rose and the Knicks front office. They pushed into the tax and even past the first apron, but this is the best New York team in a decade. And, it feels like the Knicks might not be done yet, as they could still make another trade or two (Julius Randle, anyone?) to further rebalance the roster.

Denver Nuggets

Acquisitions

Russell Westbrook (signed via Minimum Exception), Dario Saric (signed via Taxpayer MLE), DaRon Holmes II (2024 first-round pick)

Re-signings

Vlatko Cancar (signed via Minimum Exception), DeAndre Jordan (signed via Minimum Exception)

Analysis

The Denver Nuggets pivoted a bit this summer. Tax and apron concerns (at least as the stated reason, as opposed to an unwillingness to spend) saw Kentavious Caldwell-Pope leave town. A failure to draft or develop viable backups for Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray saw the team invest their limited resources in those spots. This offseason feels like a step back for a title contender.

Losing Caldwell-Pope is a blow to one of the best starting fives in the NBA. Christian Braun is ready for a bigger role, but he’s not the shooter nor defender that Caldwell-Pope is. Braun is going to have to take another big leap to fill Caldwell-Pope’s no-maintenance-necessary role for the Nuggets.

Russell Westbrook gives the team the backup point guard they’ve been missing since Monte Morris was traded. Westbrook is a bit of a weird fit, since he can’t really play off the ball. But Westbrook will add energy and juice to a second unit that seemed stuck in the mud quite often last season.

Dario Saric is a nice addition behind Jokic…but did they really need to give him the full Taxpayer MLE? Not only does that feel like an overpay, but it removed using that tool on another player. In addition, that move hard-capped Denver at the second apron for a second consecutive season. Given the Nuggets reluctance to go deep in the tax, that may not be much of a barrier, but it’s still something to monitor.

Re-signing Vlatko Cancar and DeAndre Jordan are fine moves. Cancar looked primed for a bigger role before getting hurt in the summer of 2023 and missing all of last season. If healthy, he could be a rotation forward this year. Jordan is a respected veteran and he’s been surprisingly productive when called upon to play once every few weeks.

What hasn’t happened as of this writing is an extension for Jamal Murray. It’s been expected that Murray and the Nuggets would sign a maximum veteran extension, but that it would happen after the Olympics. We’re now nearly a month after the Olympics and there’s been nary a peep.

Did Murray’s struggles in the playoffs and then for Team Canada give Calvin Booth pause on handing the veteran guard a max deal? Is Denver ownership reluctant to go big to keep Murray, given Michael Porter Jr. is already on a max deal and Aaron Gordon has a new deal coming too? Is it really just a case of putting pen to paper when everyone is back together in Denver?

Until Murray is extended, those are all valid questions. Valid questions are kind of the theme around the Nuggets right now. A full year after basking in the glory of a title with a pretty stable roster, everything now feels far more tenuous in Denver.

Los Angeles Lakers

Acquisitions

Dalton Knecht (2024 first-round pick), Bronny James (2024 second-round pick)

Re-signings

LeBron James (signed via Bird rights), Max Christie (signed via Bird rights)

Analysis

Much to the consternation of their fans, the Los Angeles Lakers look pretty similar to last season. Spencer Dinwiddie and Taurean Prince left town and were replaced by two rookies in Dalton Knecht and Bronny James.

That’s the entire summation of the ins and outs of the Lakers roster this summer.

So…yeah.

Knecht was a terrific value pick, as he slipped out of the lottery. He should outproduce his draft slot, and possibly by a considerable margin. Drafting the younger James was something everyone saw coming, but it’s still a circus. However, the hit rate for late second-round picks isn’t all that high to begin with. So, being completely honest, why not make the pick that makes your star player happy and creates a fun story?

As for the elder James, he very famously was willing to leave a pretty big chunk of money on the table for the Lakers to make a big move or two. When Rob Pelinka was unable or unwilling to make those moves happen, James left only some money on the table.

As the latest former Los Angeles second-round pick to reach restricted free agency after two seasons, Max Christie got a four-year, $32 million deal. That’s probably a fine value for Christie, as he’s shown plenty of potential to develop into a solid 3&D wing.

Every other playoff team made moves to bolster their roster or to turn towards resetting their cap sheet. Los Angeles let the summer idle by with their toes dipped into the water while they napped lakeside.

That’s not good enough for a team that should be doing everything they can to maximize the remaining years LeBron James and Anthony Davis have left as elite players. That’s especially true when James was willing to leave money on the table. Instead, the same middling roster that wasn’t good enough in a deep Western Conference is back for another run. Not the best approach for maximizing the remaining years of James’ career.

Miami Heat

Acquisitions

Alec Burks (signed via Minimum Exception), Kel’el Ware (2024 first-round pick), Pelle Larsson (2024 second-round pick)

Re-signings

Haywood Highsmith (signed via Bird rights), Kevin Love (signed via Early Bird rights), Thomas Bryant (signed via Minimum Exception)

Analysis

After years of creaking through the regular season then turning it on for the postseason, the Miami Heat’s aging roster caught up with them. Injured, banged-up and worn-out players lost in fairly non-competitive fashion in the first round.

The roster screamed for a makeover of sorts, but no such big reset came. Years of trading for, signing and re-signing older players seems to have caught up with Miami. The Heat didn’t have the flexibility cap-wise or asset-wise to do a whole lot for a second straight summer.

Alec Burks is a nice addition for the minimum. He’ll play a role in a backcourt that always seems to beset by injuries. But Burks was the only veteran addition.

The draft continues to be a spot where Miami excels. Kel’el Ware looks like the latest in a string of solid picks. The knocks on Ware were his work ethic and hustle. It’s safe to say that the Heat will correct those issues, or they probably aren’t correctable. Bet on the former, and that’s great considering Ware has all kinds of talent and potential.

Miami set about re-signing Haywood Highsmith, and got him on a really nice deal. He’s become a key defensive-minded forward for Erik Spoelstra. Highsmith will be part of the group replacing Caleb Martin, who left for reportedly less money in Philadelphia.

Up front, Kevin Love is coming back, as is Thomas Bryant. Giving Love two seasons as this point in his career seems unnecessary, and Bryant wasn’t able to crack the rotation. But their presence gives Spoelstra a couple of vets behind Bam Adebayo in the frontcourt.

Given the Miami Heat have kind of become Lakers Southeast, it’s interesting that both franchises had similar summers. The draft additions are fine, but aren’t major upgrades for this season. And there wasn’t much done besides that.

Like the Lakers, the Heat should have done more to maximize things in Jimmy Butler’s remaining years as an All-Star level guy. Instead, they are basically running it back with a group that’s not a contender. Which begs the question: If you aren’t contending, why aren’t you resetting?

 

Keith SmithAugust 22, 2024

When the bubble wrapped up in 2020, the Orlando Magic were in a weird place. Their post-Dwight Howard team had finally broken through for back-to-back playoff appearances, but the Magic had been bounced in five games both times. The team Jeff Weltman and staff inherited was fine, but fine was never the goal.

Four years later, the Magic are finally growing into the team they always wanted to be post-Howard.

Following the bubble season, Weltman and crew went about tearing down the Magic. Out went mainstays Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier. In came young players and draft picks.

The rebuild was on yet again in Orlando. But this time around it felt different.

A few years of losing delivered Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagnerand Jalen Suggs. Jonathan Isaac finally got healthy. Cole Anthony grew into a very good sixth man. A handful of vets signed to savvy, short-term contracts outplayed their deals.

In 2023-24, the Magic surprised everyone but themselves by making the playoffs. In fact, we all should have seen it coming the year before. After playing the first third of the 2022-23 season without any healthy guards and tasking their young forwards to do literally everything, Orlando was a forgettable 5-20.

Then the team started to get healthy. All the additional do-it-all reps Banchero and Wagner had forced upon them started to pay off. The Magic finished that season 29-28 over the final two-thirds of the season. The leap happened while most NBA fans were barely paying any attention.

Last season, Orlando announced their presence pretty early. Walkover wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics were signature early-season moments. The blowout of Boston came in the midst of a nine-game win streak to close out November.

The winning never really stopped. Orlando competed for as high as the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs all the way until the end of the season. Ultimately, the Magic fell to fifth and lost in a seven-game battle to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs.

Immediately upon that Game 7 loss came decision time for Weltman and the Orlando brain trust. And that decision started with the age-old question for a young team making the leap: Is it time to go all-in?


We’ll pause about the Magic here for a moment to look at this situation, because it’s a fairly common one in the NBA. And, more importantly, it’s one that teams still haven’t been able to really solve for.

The question: Is our young team ready for us to add to it? Or do we still need more time and seasoning?

Add too early, and you end up stepping back because your team wasn’t ready. Add too late and you might miss your window entirely.

It’s a question of timing and it’s one a front office has to get correct. Far too many up-and-coming NBA teams never got there because their front office went too early or waited too long to add talent.


This is where the Orlando Magic found themselves this summer. Realistically, Jeff Weltman had two summers to use to cap space to add talent. It was happening in either 2024 or 2025. By the summer of 2026, Paolo Banchero would join Franz Wagner on a max extension, and presumably Jalen Suggs would be in a sizable deal of his own. By then, going the cap space route would be very unlikely.

It wasn’t quite now or never for the Magic, but more sooner or later. Orlando chose sooner.

Weltman decided his young, and still improving, stars were ready for reinforcements. Unlike the other cap space teams this offseason, the Magic didn’t go all-in on outside talent. They didn’t just use their space to retain their own players either. Instead, Orlando did a little bit of both.

When free agency opened, the Magic were one of the teams that were linked to Paul George. It was even reported that Orlando was one of the few teams who would get a meeting with George. Whether that meeting ever happened is unclear, but the Magic pivoted away from George fairly.

Orlando agreed to a three-year, $66 million team with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope before the first night of free agency was even two hours old. That suggests Caldwell-Pope was the Magic’s real target all along.

Instead of spending all of their cap space to bring in George, who undoubtedly would have helped Orlando, the Magic went with a player nearly three years younger. And Caldwell-Pope is additive without upsetting the ecosystem that Orlando has been building over the past few years.

All along, the Magic wanted players who would support, enhance and lift Banchero and Wagner. Those two are the Orlando’s pillars. Anyone the team added had to fit in alongside Banchero and Wagner but without taking anything away from them.

In Caldwell-Pope, the Magic have added a role player-plus. Over the last several years, Caldwell-Pope has figured out how to play off his teammates on offense, while maintaining an elite level on defense. Given he’s spent years playing with LeBron James and Nikola Jokic, Caldwell-Pope clearly knows how to play with big ballhandlers and playmakers. That’ll fit nicely within Orlando’s offensive system keyed by Banchero and Wagner. On defense, Magic coach Jamahl Mosley and staff have to be salivating at the thought of unleashing the combo of Caldwell-Pope and Suggs on opposing ballhandlers.

After signing Caldwell-Pope, Weltman and staff went about the task of retaining their own players. Moe Wagner, Gary Harris and Goga Bitadze are all key reserves and all are returning to Orlando. Only Bitadze got a contract with more than next season guaranteed, and his deal declines from year to year over the next two seasons.

With the bulk of the bench taken care of, the Magic turned their eyes towards the future. Franz Wagner agreed to a five-year, maximum rookie scale extension worth at least a projected $224 million. One pillar is in place years to come. It’s a great bet that Banchero will join him on a similar deal next summer. If Banchero makes All-NBA this season – which is a decent bet – he’ll be on an even bigger deal starting in 2026.

In a move to foster continuity, the Magic’s final big move was to renegotiate-and-extend Jonathan Isaac. After a year where Isaac got and stayed healthy, Orlando took care of him long-term. The Magic used their remaining cap space to bump Isaac’s salary from $17.4 million to $25 million for this season. Orlando then tacked on $59 million over the next four years through 2028-29. To protect themselves, the Magic are only on the hook for $23 million, unless Isaac hits some games-played markers each season.

Effectively, once Suggs inks an extension, Orlando will have this group in place for at least the next two to three seasons, with the major players locked in even longer.


The Orlando Magic didn’t quite go all-in this summer. But they didn’t sit the summer out either. Instead, they followed the same patient approach they’ve followed since Jeff Weltman took over the team.

The Magic added a veteran who outplays his 3&D tag. Orlando rewarded players who have done well for them by bringing them back. In every case, minus Franz Wagner’s max deal, the Magic are also fairly well-protected too.

For a team that had nothing but question marks as the team cratered following the bubble season, the Magic have turned things around in a big way. And their patient approach means they still have some flexibility moving forward too.

There isn’t a bad contract on the books in Orlando. Every single deal is very tradable. As this season and beyond show the Magic what they need to take the step from playoff team to contender, they’ll have the ability to fill those holes. That’s excellent drafting, good player development, terrific cap management and solid roster work all around.

It’s been 12 years since Dwight Howard left Orlando. There were a couple of nice seasons along the long road back to relevancy, but this is the team Magic fans have been waiting and hoping for.

This team has homegrown talent that wants to be in Orlando. They’ve supplemented with smart veteran additions, followed by savvy re-signings. This is where everyone wanted to be a dozen years ago when the Dwightmare ended.

It took longer than expected, but the Magic are here now. And they aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.

Keith SmithAugust 15, 2024

This offseason the NBA split into five distinct groups, as far as their approaches to roster-building. One-fifth of the league dealt with second-apron issues, as they were either over or dancing around that ominous barrier. The second bundle of teams had the same challenges, but slightly less so, with the first apron.

The third group found themselves just over or just under the tax line. A fourth set found that sweet spot of operating over the cap, but far enough under the tax that the extra penalties weren’t really a concern.

Then there was a last group: the cap space teams. The Philadelphia 76ers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Detroit Pistons, Utah Jazz, San Antonio Spurs and Charlotte Hornets all used cap space this offseason to build out their rosters.

But not all cap space is created equal.

The NBA offseason is full of harsh realities, especially for cap space teams. Some are good enough that they use their room to propel themselves to a new level. Some are so bad that their space is merely a dumping ground for others to get off undesirable contracts. And some…well…they just sort of flounder around without seemingly having much of a plan.

We’re going to look at how each of the six 2024 cap space teams handled their offseasons. The idea is to examine how circumstances, and not just money available, drove the summer for teams who used cap room.

Philadelphia 76ers

Acquisitions

Paul George (signed via cap space), Andre Drummond (signed via cap space), Caleb Martin (signed via cap space), Eric Gordon (signed via Minimum Exception), Reggie Jackson (signed via Minimum Exception), Jared McCain (2024 first-round pick), Adem Bona (2024 second-round pick)

Re-signings

Tyrese Maxey (signed via Bird rights), Kelly Oubre Jr. (signed via Room Exception), K.J. Martin (signed via Bird rights), Kyle Lowry (signed via Minimum Exception)

Analysis

The Sixers spent a full year planning to use their cap space to make a big splash. That’s a risky play, but Daryl Morey pulled it off. Philadelphia wouldn’t have been as successful without Tyrese Maxey foregoing a rookie scale extension and holding off to re-sign as a free agent this summer. Sure, Maxey got paid the same max deal in the end, but he took on all of the risk.

As for the other signings, once Paul George agreed to a max (the only All-Star level player to change teams via free agency this offseason), things came together pretty well for Philadelphia. Andre Drummond took $5 million to back up Joel Embiid. Caleb Martin took the rest of the cap space (and reportedly less than the Miami Heat were offering) to be a part of the wing rotation.

From there, Morey filled out the roster by re-signing Kelly Oubre Jr. via the Room Exception and Kyle Lowry via the Minimum Exception. The 76ers also added Eric Gordon and Reggie Jackson via the Minimum Exception, and Jared McCain and Adem Bona through the draft.

The last move we want to address was re-signing K.J. Martin to a two-year, $16 million deal. Martin got just under $8M guaranteed for this season, with next season fully non-guaranteed at just over $8 million. That makes him a perfect trade chip up to the trade deadline. But where Morey was really smart was that he didn’t use Martin in a sign-and-trade this offseason. That would have hard-capped the Sixers at the first apron, under which things were starting to get a little tight. Instead, Morey re-signed Martin and will likely trade him later this season in a deal which won’t trigger a hard cap.

That’s delayed gratification, for sure. But after a year of waiting to use cap space, Philadelphia fans can wait a little while longer.

The 76ers summer started with Joel Embiid, Ricky Council IV and Tyrese Maxey’s free agent rights. Over $62 million in cap room spent later, Philadelphia finds themselves near the top of Eastern Conference projections. That’s money well spent, especially when you consider the amount of roster spots the Sixers had to fill.

Related: Philadelphia Transactions

Oklahoma City Thunder

Acquisitions 

Alex Caruso (acquired by trade via salary-matching), Isaiah Hartenstein (signed via cap space), Nikola Topic (2024 first-round pick), Dillon Jones (2024 first-round pick)

Re-signings 

Isaiah Joe (signed via Bird rights), Aaron Wiggins (signed via Bird rights)

Analysis

Unlike the Philadelphia 76ers, the Thunder didn’t have to build an entire roster around a couple of returning players. The Thunder were able to make a targeted signing to fill a rotation weakness.

After acquiring Alex Caruso in a deal that took on money, but didn’t require using cap space, the Thunder filled out their rotation by using the bulk of their cap space to sign Isaiah Hartenstein.

Is $30 million for Hartenstein an overpay? Yes. Is that a bad thing? Not at all.

With Caruso already in the fold, Oklahoma City clearly felt that adding a starting-level center was their biggest need. Hartenstein was the best starting-level center on the market this summer. In order to get Hartenstein away from the New York Knicks (and possibly others), the Thunder had to go all Godfather and make him an offer he couldn’t refuse.

OKC had to spend some money this summer to hit the salary floor, and they didn’t have many roster spots to fill. So, it makes perfect sense to overspend on Hartenstein on a short-term deal. And that’s the key. This is a three-year, $87 million deal, but the final season is a team option. So, that makes it really more like a two-year, $58.5 million deal. That’s still an overpay for Hartenstein, but it’s a savvy one. More on that in a bit.

To finish up their summer, the Thunder used the old “decline the team option and re-sign” trick to retain both Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Both players have grown into rotation players for Mark Daigneault, and both players got really smart deals from the Oklahoma City side.

Just as Sam Presti can get out of the deal with Hartenstein as his team starts to get expensive (extensions for Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are looming, as well as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s next deal), the Thunder used a smart structure for both Joe and Wiggins. Both of their contracts decline in value year to year. And, as is a trademark of Presti when he can get it, the deals both include a team option. That gives Oklahoma City tremendous flexibility when they have their young stars locked into max and near-max extension.

The Thunder only needed to fill one rotation spot, and they did it in a big way. Hartenstein will help as a starter or off the bench. Joe and Wiggins will continue to play key roles off Oklahoma City’s bench. Oh, and Sam Presti is still sitting on a bundle of future draft picks that he can use in future deals. This was as quick of a bounce back from contender to rebuild to contender as we’ve seen in NBA history.

Related: Oklahoma City Transactions

Detroit Pistons

Acquisitions

Tobias Harris (signed via cap space), Tim Hardaway Jr. (acquired by trade via cap space), Malik Beasley (signed via cap space), Paul Reed (acquired through waiver claim via cap space), Wendell Moore Jr. (acquired by trade via cap space), Ron Holland II (2024 first-round pick), Bobi Klintman (2024 second-round pick)

Re-signings

Simone Fontecchio (via Bird rights)

Analysis

Detroit didn’t have the same recruiting tools as the Philadelphia 76ers and Oklahoma City Thunder. The Pistons had the cap space, but they didn’t have the promise of winning. Despite that, new front office leader Trajan Langdon still upgraded his roster to start moving the rebuild forward.

The Pistons brought back old friend Tobias Harris with the bulk of their cap space. Is Harris a worth $26 million AAV over the next two seasons? Probably not. Unlike the Thunder, who spent to add Isaiah Hartenstein as the rotation player to put them over the top, the Pistons overpaid Harris when no one else was likely to beat their offer.

But that’s what you have to do sometimes as a bad team. And, despite being overpaid, Harris will help Detroit. He’s reliable as far as availability goes, he can hit a jumper and he’ll give the team a likeable, veteran presence. That’s all valuable for a team that all too often couldn’t get out of their own way last season.

Acquiring Tim Hardaway Jr. and Malik Beasley follows a similar thought process. Both have good track records health-wise, both can hit shots and neither will cause a stir in the locker room.

The good news? None of these deals run past two seasons. Harris is on a two-year deal, while Hardaway and Beasley will come off the books after this season. The Pistons didn’t really sacrifice any long-term flexibility. And, as Tom Gores challenged the team with, Detroit took on contracts, but for guys who can actually play. Minus maybe Wendell Moore Jr., who was more of a straight salary dump. But his contract is so small, that it doesn’t really matter.

Langdon used a chunk of cap space to claim Paul Reed off waivers. That’s a smart, no-risk pickup for Detroit. If he doesn’t work out, both years of Reed’s deal are non-guaranteed. The Pistons can get off of this contract at minimal to no cost.

Re-signing Simone Fontecchio was a bit of an interesting process. Detroit didn’t wait until they used all over their remaining cap space to bring the veteran shooting forward back into the fold via his free agent rights. Instead, the Pistons re-signed Fontecchio and ate up some cap space. While that’s probably not ideal, Langdon was about out of ways to use his cap space anyway.

As it stands, the Pistons still have about $10.2 million left in cap room. That’ll make them popular as the third-team-in as trade talks happen around the league. Detroit can help facilitate deals using that space, while picking up another asset or two for themselves.

The Pistons summer didn’t have the blockbuster feel of the Sixers. Nor did it even have the smart-overpay feel of the Thunder. But Detroit got better this offseason and they didn’t dip very far into any future flexibility. And there’s probably more to come before the trade deadline. The Pistons simply aren’t walking the same path as the Sixers or Thunder yet.

Related: Detroit Transactions

San Antonio Spurs

Acquisitions

Chris Paul (signed via cap space), Harrison Barnes (acquired by trade via cap space), Stephon Castle (2024 first-round pick)

Re-signing

Charles Bassey (via Minimum Exception), Sandro Mamukelashvili (via Minimum Exception)

Analysis

The Spurs are kind of in between the Detroit Pistons and the contenders in terms of cap space teams. San Antonio’s record has them closer to Detroit, but the presence of Victor Wembanyama has them closer to the contenders.

No, we’re not saying San Antonio is competing for a title. Just making the playoffs is an uphill task in a very deep Western Conference. But Wembanyama is here, he’s only getting better and the Spurs aren’t far off from contention.

Because they’ve drafted so many players, and re-signed a few players, in recent years, San Antonio wasn’t working with max cap space like the previous three teams. Still, the Spurs made savvy upgrades that will improve their team next season.

In order to fit Harrison Barnes’ deal into their remaining cap space, the Spurs wisely structured Chris Paul’s deal to include some incentives. Paul got a base salary that is roughly $10.5 million, with some unlikely bonuses that can push his deal up to just over $12 million. That difference of just over $1.5 million was enough for San Antonio to acquire Barnes.

Barnes’ $18 million contract slid into the remainder of the Spurs cap room. For taking on Barnes, who can still play and will actually help San Antonio on the court, the Spurs also picked up a potentially valuable 2031 pick swap.

Both Paul and Barnes will help some young players mature. Paul will help a young backcourt, as well as just making sure everyone is in the right spots to execute Gregg Popovich’s schemes. Barnes will be a boon to a young forward group that will benefit from seeing how he’s been such a consistent performer year over year.

When you are shy of max cap space, and you don’t want to push your building blocks into lesser roles, you have to be really careful. Brian Wright and the Spurs did a great job of using their room to add two additive vets to a roster that really needed them. That’s a productive offseason.

Related: San Antonio Transactions

Charlotte Hornets

Acquisitions

Josh Green (acquired by trade via cap space), Devonte’ Graham (acquired by trade via cap space, then waived), Reggie Jackson (acquired by trade via cap space, then waived), Taj Gibson (via Minimum Exception), Tidjane Salaun (2024 first-round pick)

Re-signings

Miles Bridges (via Bird rights), Seth Curry (via Minimum Exception)

Analysis

The Hornets split the difference this summer with the cap space. They used some room to take on unwanted contracts in Devonte’ Graham and Reggie Jackson, who were both later waived. Charlotte also used some cap space to bring in Josh Green in a six-team trade.

For new front office executive Jeff Peterson to pull off his moves, he had to work around Mile Bridges’ cap hold. Peterson had to keep Bridges on the books, in order to re-sign him later via Bridges’ Bird rights. That made things a bit more complicated, but the Hornets made it all work.

In exchange for renting out some cap space, Charlotte added Green, who should slot in as a potential 3&D wing in a lineup that can use those skills. The Hornets also added a second-round pick in the Graham deal. In the six-team deal that brought Green and Jackson to Charlotte, Peterson was able to add two future Denver second-round picks by trading away a 2025 second-round pick that should be near the end of the round.

Was it the “fresh start” summer that Hornets fans were dreaming of? Kind of. They have a new front office and a new coaching staff. But outside of Green, the roster is pretty similar to last season’s downtrodden group. 

Many were split on bringing back Bridges, given his past domestic violence issues. Strictly basketball-wise, the Hornets got a terrific deal on Bridges with a non-max declining contract year to year. But it would be silly to suggest such a deal would have happened without the past domestic violence issues. In the end, if the organization believes Bridges is a changed person and continuing to work on improving himself off the court, then this is a solid value deal. Given the Hornets paid him, it’s fair to suggest that’s exactly how they feel about Bridges.

Tidjane Salaun looks like he’s at least a year away from contributing. Seth Curry and Taj Gibson will probably contribute more in the locker room than on the floor. Everyone else is returning from a season that was wrecked by injuries and the inconsistency of youth.

All that said, Peterson did a nice job in his first offseason. The Bridges situation wasn’t an easy one to navigate right out of the gate. Charles Lee seems to be a perfect hire to grow with this still-young roster. And the Hornets did a fine job using cap space to pick up a helpful player in Green and a couple of long-term assets. As a bad team that is figuring things out on the fly with all new leaders in charge, Charlotte made out alright this summer.

Related: Charlotte Transactions

Utah Jazz

Acquisitions

Drew Eubanks (signed via cap space), Svi Mykhailiuk (signed via cap space), Cody Williams (2024 first-round pick), Isaiah Collier (2024 first-round pick), Kyle Filipowski (2024 second-round pick, signed via cap space)

Re-signings

Lauri Markkanen (renegotiated-and-extended via cap space), Johnny Juzang (signed via Bird rights)

Analysis

Utah’s offseason was going to go in one of two directions. Danny Ainge and Justin Zanik said the Jazz were going to go big-game hunting. If that path failed, they were prepared to make moves to keep some talent home in Utah long-term.

Utah ended up walking that second path, and used the bulk of their cap space to renegotiate-and-extend Lauri Markkanen’s contract. Markkanen’s salary went from just over $18 million for this season, up to the maximum allowable of just over $42 million. From there, the Jazz tacked on four new years at nearly $196 million for Markkanen.

Some have questioned the size of the deal, but Markkanen has proven to be an All-Star. And, most importantly, he really wanted to stay in Utah. That’s huge for the Jazz. Having Markkanen in the fold now precludes a trade this season, as Markkanen delayed signing the deal by a day to give himself a trade restriction that runs until after the trade deadline. However, Utah could always trade Markkanen next summer. His deal is large, but it’s far from untradeable, due to Markkanen’s talent and skillset. Given Ainge is running the team, never count out anything trade-wise.

The Jazz used the rest of their cap room to shore up a few roster holes. Drew Eubanks got what amounts to a one-year, $5 million deal to provide some center depth. Svi Mykhailiuk brings a championship ring and outside shooting to Utah on what is essentially a one-year, $3.5 million contract. Ainge also used cap space to sign Kyle Filipowski to a bigger deal than is allowed via the Second Round Pick Exception. The Jazz also re-signed Johnny Juzang to a four-year deal via his free agent rights, which has only this season guaranteed.

Even with Markkanen off the market for this season, the Jazz are still a team to watch in trade talks. Utah has a collection of veterans like John Collins, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton, who could all be of interest to various playoff teams. Walker Kessler has also reportedly been dangled in trade discussions this offseason. There are even some deals out there that could return a big name (Brandon Ingram? Zach LaVine? A deal no one sees coming?) in a rebalancing or shedding long-term salary kind of trade.

Keeping Markkanen, while adding talent on short-term or pseudo short-term deals, is a solid summer for the Jazz. They didn’t sacrifice any long-term flexibility in any kind of harmful way. And there’s still the potential for another big move.

Oh, and let’s not forget the Jazz are sitting a bunch of extra draft picks, including as many as three first-round selections in the talent-rich 2025 NBA Draft. This is exactly where Danny Ainge wants to be. Ainge has the flexibility to keep rebuilding and adding assets, right up until he feels like it’s time to cash in and go for it.

Related: Utah Transactions

Keith SmithJuly 31, 2024

NBA Summer League season has now come and gone. Leagues in California, Salt Lake City and the big one in Las Vegas have wrapped up. That means it’s time to look back at how things went.

In this exclusive series for Spotrac, I’ll be looking at how each rostered player performed in Summer League this year.

A “rostered player” is someone who is either:

  • Signed to a standard contract
  • Signed to a two-way contract
  • Signed to a training camp deal (or rumored to be signing one)
  • Has their draft rights retained by the team

On occasion, another player may sneak in here if they did something that stood out. We’ll be going division by division, so that the articles don’t get too unwieldy. The hope is that series will give you a sense of how players looked, while giving you something to consume while we wait for NBA training camps to begin in a couple of months.

Previously covered:

Central Division

Golden State Warriors

Reece Beekman

Contract Status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 7.0 PPG, 30.8% FG%, 66.7% 3P%

Analysis: Beekman only appeared in two Summer League games, seemingly due to an injury of some sort. He was fine in those two games. Beekman hit a couple of three-pointers, did an ok job getting to his shot and his on-ball defense solid enough. There just wasn’t a lot to evaluate here with only 44 minutes played.

Trayce Jackson-Davis

Contract Status: Three-years, $6.5M, 2023 Second Round Pick Exception

Stats: 12.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.7 APG, 63.2% FG%, 73.7% FT%

Analysis: It was a short summer for Jackson-Davis, who became an established rotation player for the Warriors as a rookie. He was dominant on the interior as a scorer and did a nice job on the boards. 19 free throw attempts in 74 minutes were also a solid sign of development for Jackson-Davis.

Kevin Knox

Contract Status: Unrestricted Free Agent

Stats: 16.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 47.1% FG%, 35.1% 3P%, 79.2% FT%

Analysis: Knox looked overpowering at times, which is to expected for a six-year NBA veteran. However, Knox is still only 24 years old, so maybe he’s a later bloomer? This was the most aggressive Knox has been hunting three-point shots, as more than half of his shots came from behind the arc. He hit them at a decent clip too. Maybe a camp invite somewhere comes for Knox off a strong summer.

Daeqwon Plowden

Contract Status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 14.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 47% FG%, 39.6% 3P%

Analysis: It was an impressive summer for Plowden both in the California Classic and in Las Vegas. He got up 48 threes in 196 minutes, and nailed them at nearly 40%. Plowden has solid size for a wing shooter too. He was competitive defensively, but nothing jumped off the screen. He’ll be 26 years old when the season starts, so it’s more about showing he can help immediately if necessary vs being a developmental prospect.

Brandin Podziemski

Contract Status: Three-years, $12.9M, 2023 First Round Rookie Scale

Stats: 17.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.3 SPG, 43.2% FG%, 40% 3P%, 80% FT%

Analysis: Like Trayce Jackson-Davis, Podziemski had a short summer. Also like Jackson-Davis, Podziemski was terrific. Podziemski showed off the all-around skills he had flashed as a rookie. He did a nice job as the Summer Warriors primary playmaker when he played. The shooting was down a touch, but that mostly Podziemski working on his off-the-dribble shots, which looked good. He also got the line five times per game. All around, Podziemski looks poised for a big second season.

Quentin Post

Contract Status: Draft Rights Retained

Stats: 10 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 63.6% FG%, 40% 3P%

Analysis: Post only got into two games, but he was fairly effective. He’s got terrific touch, and his shot looked solid out to the NBA line. Only grabbing five rebounds in nearly 30 minutes wasn’t great. And Post didn’t show up defensively, but nothing was glaringly bad either. At the very least, Post is going to be a solid NBA backup center for his offensive game.

Jackson Rowe

Contract Status: One-year, non-guaranteed Exhibit 10 training camp deal

Stats: 9.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 49% FG%, 31.3% 3P%

Analysis: Rowe looks the part of a solid wing. He’s got good size, he’s strong and he’s quick enough. Rowe got better as the summer went along too. Rowe will go to camp before landing with Santa Cruz this season.

Pat Spencer

Contract Status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 15.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 6.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, 74.3% FG%

Analysis: Spencer was impressive as a playmaker for the Summer Warriors. He was also unstoppable when he drove the ball. Right now, Spencer is like a Poor Man’s T.J. McConnell. He’s a reluctant shooter unless he is in/around the paint, but the jumper doesn’t look bad. Spencer is also a terrific athlete, but he’s also 28 years old. Any prospect shine is all but gone at this point.

LA Clippers

Kobe Brown

Contract Status: Three-years, $9.9M, 2023 First Round Rookie Scale

Stats: 16.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.2 APG, 49.2% FG%, 22.7% 3P%, 78.3 FT%

Analysis: After a non-descript rookie season, Brown showed up again this summer. He did some things well, while struggling in other areas. Brown was much-improved as a playmaker. He saw and made passes that he didn’t attempt as a rookie. He’s a solid finisher and scorer around the basket. The jumper remains inconsistent, and Brown is still only so-so in terms of on-ball defense. He doesn’t look ready to claim any NBA minutes yet.

Cameron Christie

Contract Status: Four-years, $7.9M, 2024 Second Round Pick Exception

Stats: 11.4 PPG, 37.3% FG%, 40.5% 3P%

Analysis: Christie showed the early look of a potential 3&D wing. He struggled to finish around the rim (just 4-of-14 on two-point shots), but he knocked down 15-of-37 three-pointers. For the 3&D role to come to pass, Christie is going to have to defend a bit better. He got better on that end as the summer went along, so that’s encouraging heading into training camp.

Moussa Diabate

Contract Status: One-year, Two-Way contract with the Charlotte Hornets

Stats: 12.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 64.1% FG%, 91.7% FT%

Analysis: Diabate was well-known to the Clippers, after two years of two-way deals. He did the same stuff he’s always done, as far as finishing around the rim and hitting the glass. The defense still needs work, but that’s something for the Hornets to work on with Diabate now.

Elijah Harkless

Contract Status: One-year, non-guaranteed Exhibit 10 training camp deal

Stats: 7.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 39.3% FG%, 31.3% 3P%

Analysis: Harkless’ best skill this summer was some pesky on-ball defense. It didn’t result in a lot of steals, but he was fairly disruptive. Offensively, Harkless is point-guard-sized, but he’s still more scorer than playmaker. He’ll return back to the G League Clippers after the preseason.

Jordan Miller

Contract Status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 25.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, 54.9% FG%, 60% 3P%, 80.4 FT%

Analysis: Miller was dominant throughout Summer League. This wasn’t just a case of being bigger, strong and quicker than those defending him, either. There was plenty of that, but Miller flashed a nice off-the-dribble jumper, as well as knocking in spot-up shots. He also got to the free throw line with regularity too. Miller is a good bet to be converted off his two-way deal at some point this season.

Los Angeles Lakers

Colin Castleton

Contract Status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 11.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 3.5 APG, 53.1% FG%

Analysis: Castleton was again solid in Summer League. He’s on the verge of being an NBA backup center. If the defense was a touch better, Castleton would already be there. As it stands, his touch, good hands and basketball IQ will have him rolling through G League until that NBA chance comes.

Blake Hinson

Contract Status: Two-years, Two-Way contract

Stats: 10.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 34.1% FG%, 32.8% 3P%

Analysis: Hinson was as advertised coming in. He’s a three-point gunner, who can defend a little bit. He gets up this three-point attempts with relative ease off catch-and-shoots. Defensively, Hinson is competitive, but looked overmatched with the better athletes in the summer setting. As an older prospect, development will have to come quickly for Hinson.

Dalton Knecht

Contract Status: Four-years, $18.5M, 2024 First Round Rookie Scale

Stats: 18.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.5 SPG, 36.7% FG%, 34.2% 3P%, 76.7% FT%

Analysis: We’re not going to worry too much about the shooting percentage. It’s such a small sample size, that an off game or two can completely swing things. All of that said, Knecht looked the part of NBA rotation player all summer. He knows how to play. It’s little things like driving, kicking and not watching, but relocating to an open spot for the return pass. Knecht also showed a knack for drawing fouls. And he did a good job getting his shot off against some tough defense. He should be a rotation player for the Lakers from Day 1, provided he can hold up defensively.

Bronny James

Contract Status: Four-years, $7.9M, 2024 Second Round Pick Exception

Stats: 7.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 32.7% FG%, 13% 3P%

Analysis: James looked as most unbiased observers expected. His shot is a major work-in-progress, as his feel as a playmaker. He’s got good physical gifts, but those mostly show up on defense right now. The good news? James gets a normal summer to work on his game. That’s a plus, before he’ll probably head to the G League for lots of minutes with South Bay.

Maxwell Lewis

Contract Status: Three-years, $6.5M, 2023 Second Round Pick Exception

Stats: 9.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 32.1% FG%, 21.7% 3P%

Analysis: This was a mess of a summer for Lewis. As a second-year guy, the expectation is that Lewis would have been one of the better Lakers. Instead, he couldn’t get any shots to fall. More worrisome was Lewis not being able to create his own looks. He’ll have to get better quickly, or Lewis will be a throw-in player/salary in a trade, or off the roster entirely.

Armel Traore

Contract Status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 6.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 48.7% FG%, 57.7% FT%

Analysis: Traore has NBA size and athleticism for a forward. He was solid enough finishing around the basket, but the jumper needs a lot of work. Traore was also able to get to the free throw line, but didn’t make many. Still, players with this kind of size/athleticism combo are worth developing through the G League, which is where Traore will spend this season.

Phoenix Suns

Jalen Bridges

Contract Status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 10.8 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 42.9% FG%, 40% 3P%

Analysis: As a senior, Bridges showed some signs of being a potential 3&D forward. That continued with the Summer Suns. Bridges was pretty competitive defensively, even if it was tough to standout on defense with two other NBA-ready defenders on the roster. Most impressive was Bridges hit 40% from deep on seven attempts per game. That’s worth keeping an eye on with the Suns new G League affiliate.

Ryan Dunn

Contract Status: Four-years, $12.9M, 2024 First Round Rookie Scale 

Stats: 5.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.5 BPG, 34.4% FG%, 0.77% 3P%

Analysis: Starting with the positives, Dunn is ready to defend in the NBA today. He’s got the size, skill and athleticism to guard almost any NBA wings and forwards. On the downside, Dunn has no jump-shot to speak of. And he struggled to finish in Las Vegas. The offense is going to take a while to come around.

Oso Ighodaro

Contract Status: Four-years, $7.9M, 2024 Second Round Pick Exception

Stats: 7.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 50% FG%, 90% FT%

Analysis: Ighodaro stuffed the stat sheet at Summer League. Like Dunn, he’s ready to defend in the NBA right now. He might get overpowered by the biggest centers, but Ighodaro will hold up against everyone else. He showed decent touch on his floater, and knocked down 9-of-10 free throws. Most impressive was Ighodaro’s decision-making as a passer. The Suns can use him as facilitator and short-roll passer on Day 1.

David Roddy

Contract Status: Two-years, $7.7M, 2022 First Round Rookie Scale (traded to Hawks after Summer League)

Stats: 14.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.4 APG, 45.8% FG%, 36.7% 3P%

Analysis: Roddy looked good, but this was his third Summer League. He’s too strong for guards, and he hit enough shots that simply stashing a forward on him didn’t really work. The problem for Roddy is that his lack of size and athleticism shows up against real NBA players. The Suns traded him to the Hawks, so maybe he can break through a crowded forward group in Atlanta.

Sacramento Kings

Adonis Arms

Contract Status: Unrestricted Free Agent

Stats: 20.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, 55.6% FG%, 21.4% 3P%, 69.2% FT%

Analysis: Arms was physically dominant in Summer League. He’s overpowering as an older, developed player at this level. The outside shot is what’s keeping Arms from cracking an NBA roster at this point.

Isaiah Crawford

Contract Status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 6.6 PPG, 52.6% FG%, 57.1% 3P%

Analysis: Crawford didn’t play a ton of minutes, but he showed enough that he’s worth developing as a potential 3&D guy. He knocked down 8-of-14 three-pointers, which carried over from two straight solid shooting seasons in college. The Kings might have found a real player, especially if Crawford flashes more of his all-around skills in the G League.

Boogie Ellis

Contract Status: One-year, non-guaranteed Exhibit 10 training camp deal

Stats: 10.0 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.3 SPG, 46.8% FG%, 47.1% 3P%

Analysis: Ellis looks the part as a scorer. He gets to his spots and his shot has nice touch. He gets nice lift on his jumper, and he’s a pretty good finisher too. The questions are his playmaking and defense. He’s going to have to become a better passer to make it in the NBA, and his lack of size really works against him on defense.

Keon Ellis

Contract Status: Two-years, $4.4M

Stats: 20.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, 52.4% FG%, 38.9% 3P%, 76.9% FT%

Analysis: Ellis didn’t really need to play Summer League. He’s an established NBA guy. What was good to see is that Ellis looked like an established NBA guy. He got to his shots with ease and he hit everything at a good clip. Ellis should probably start for the Kings, as his offense-defense combo is a good fit with the other starters.

Colby Jones

Contract Status: Three-years, $6.7M, 2023 Second Round Pick Exception

Stats: 8.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.3 APG, 2.0 SPG, 30% FG%, 30% 3P%

Analysis: Jones couldn’t get any shots to fall, but he did a lot of everything else. His defense was terrific, he hit the boards and he showed up as a passer. Given he shot it well in the G League last season, we’ll give that a pass in favor of praising his all-around play. The Kings may need one more wing/forward and Jones could be it.

Isaac Jones

Contract Status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 9.9 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.5 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 49.2% FG%, 23.5% 3P%, 75% FT%

Analysis: Starting with the positives, Jones looks like he’s NBA-ready physically. He’s quick, he’s strong and he gets up to challenge shots. Jones showed he has a good feel for rebounding, both timing and positioning. Offensively, it’s clear the Kings challenged Jones to shoot jumpers, as he took more threes in eight Summer League games than he took in his entire senior season at Washington. That’s a good focus for Jones, because he needs to be able to shoot to stick in the NBA. Keep an eye on that progress in Stockton this season.

Mason Jones

Contract Status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 13.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.5 SPG, 47.8% FG%, 38.9% 3P%, 89.7% FT%

Analysis: Jones’ shooting and scoring wasn’t much of a surprise. As an experienced player in this setting, that’s be somewhat expected. Everything else jumped off the screen. Jones got on the glass better than we’ve ever seen. And his passing was outstanding. He was also a more competitive, active defender. Maybe everything is clicking for Jones now. If so, the Kings have a real player to watch on a two-way deal.

 

Keith SmithJuly 24, 2024

NBA Summer League season has now come and gone. Leagues in California, Salt Lake City and the big one in Las Vegas have wrapped up. That means it’s time to look back at how things went.

In this exclusive series for Spotrac, we’ll be looking at how each rostered player performed in Summer League this year.

A “rostered player” is someone who is either:

  • Signed to a standard contract
  • Signed to a two-way contract
  • Signed to a training camp deal (or rumored to be signing one)
  • Has their draft rights retained by the team

On occasion, another player may sneak in here if they did something that stood out. We’ll be going division by division, so that the articles don’t get too unwieldy. The hope is that series will give you a sense of how players looked, while giving you something to consume while we wait for NBA training camps to begin in a couple of months.

Chicago Bulls

Matas Buzelis

Contract Status: Four-years, $23.9M, 2024 First-Round Rookie Scale

Stats: 16.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 2.0 BPG, 33.7% FG%, 21.4% 3P%, 74.1% FT%

Analysis: Buzelis came in with a chip on his shoulder and then played angry. That’s a good thing. He’s clearly not upset with being on his hometown Bulls, but Buzelis isn’t happy about slipping in the draft. He looked fine athletically. The shot, which was questionable in the G League, continues to be the real question.

Marcus Domask

Contract status: One-year, non-guaranteed Exhibit 10 training camp deal

Stats: 2.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 11.3 MPG

Analysis: Domask barely played in Las Vegas. He’s coming off a very solid all-around college career. Domask has good size for a wing. But he didn’t shoot well in college. If he can’t knock down shots, he’ll be a G League guy.

Henri Drell

Contract Status: Unrestricted Free Agent

Stats: 7.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 37.1% FG%, 26.7% 3P%, 62.5% FT%

Analysis: Drell suffered from the same fate as a lot of the Summer Bulls as far as shooting goes. He’s already proven that he’s at least a solid player on a two-way contract. Right now, Chicago doesn’t have a two-way spot open, so Drell may be looking elsewhere for his next roster spot.

Andrew Funk

Contract Status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 2.4 points, 16.7% FG%, 17.6% 3P%

Analysis: The Bulls used Funk like a shooting specialist in Las Vegas. The issue was that Funk didn’t hit many shots. He’s on a two-way deal, but as a second-year two-way guy, consider that spot a little tenuous.

Julian Phillips

Contract status: Three-years, $6.5M, 2023 Second Round Pick Exception

Stats: 13.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.3 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 40.5% FG%, 36.8% 3P%, 70% FT%

Analysis: Phillips was one of the Bulls best players in Las Vegas. He was confident and pulled several shots off the dribble. That’s a good development, after a rookie year where he was mostly a stationary shooter. Phillips may have to fight for minutes this season, but don’t bet against him.

Adama Sanogo

Contract status: One-year, Two-Way Contract

Stats: 15.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 62.2% FG%, 87.5% FT%

Analysis: Sanogo solidified his status as a solid developmental big. He’s a good finisher, a tough rebounder and he’s got just enough lift to block and challenge shots. The Bulls don’t have a ton of depth at the center spot, so Sanogo could eventually work himself into a conversion to a standard deal.

D.J. Steward

Contract status: One-year, Two-Way Contract

Stats: 17.4 PPG, 6.4 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 47% FG%, 40% 3P%, 86.7% FT%

Analysis: Steward balled out for the Summer Bulls. So much so that he landed a two-way contract from Chicago. Steward was aggressive as both a driver and a pullup shooter. He did a better job as a playmaker than he’s shown to date in the G League. That’s encouraging, because to stick in the NBA Steward will have to be more than just a scorer.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Emoni Bates

Contract status: Restricted Free Agent

Stats: 16.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.3 APG, 36.2% FG%, 28.6% 3P%, 100% FT%

Analysis: Bates built on a strong rookie season by looking physically overpowering for a lot of summer defenders. We’re not going to worry too much about the missed shots. Bates was being tasked with creating a lot of his own looks. He was largely able to do so, for the most part. One really encouraging sign: Bates made some passes that he wouldn’t have attempted last year. That’s good stuff.

Pete Nance

Contract status: Unrestricted Free Agent

Stats: 11.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 46.8% FG%, 34.8% 3P%

Analysis: Nance was basically the same guy he was in the G League last year. He’s a solid big who can space the floor a bit. The Cavs would do well to bring Nance back on another two-way deal for frontcourt depth.

Craig Porter Jr.

Contract status: Three-years, $6.5M

Stats: 13.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.3 SPG, 39.4% FG%, 21.4% 3P%, 71.4% FT%

Analysis: Porter made sort of a cameo appearance in Las Vegas. He’s already an established NBA guy, so the Cavs didn’t need to see much out of him. It would have been nice to see Porter hit more shots, but he was kind of playing a bombs-away style without anyone to set him up.

Luke Travers

Contract status: Draft Rights Retained

Stats: 8.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.3 SPG, 48.1% FG%

Analysis: Travers is a Summer League veteran at this point. He did his all-around thing in Vegas, but with less usage, as the Cavs focused on some younger players. Ideally, Travers would shoot it better, but he might be able to break through as an NBA rotation guy anyway. If he doesn’t come over this season, it’s probably worth wondering if Travers will ever come to the NBA.

Jaylon Tyson

Contract status: Four-years, $16.1M, 2024 First-Round Rookie Scale

Stats: 15.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.4 SPG, 58.8% FG%, 40% 3P%, 91.7% FT%

Analysis: Tyson wasn’t just the Cavs best player at Summer League, he was one of the best players in Las Vegas period. He looked calm, confident and composed. Tyson used his physical gifts to overpower lesser defenders to get into the paint over and over. He did a solid job as a finisher once at the rim. When that was shut off, he showed some surprising passing skills. The Cavs wing depth in a little shaky, especially beyond this upcoming season. Look for Tyson to claim a regular rotation spot before long.

Detroit Pistons

Ron Holland

Contract status: Four-years, $37.5M, 2024 First-Round Rookie Scale

Stats: 18.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 40.8% FG%, 23.5% 3P%, 65% FT%

Analysis: Starting with the good, Holland is NBA-ready as an athlete. He can more than hang in that aspect. He also has pretty good basketball IQ. Holland took a few risks in Vegas, but they were ones worth taking. He also showed up as a competitive rebounder, which is always a plus for a wing. On the downside, Holland couldn’t get shots to fall. He missed open looks, contested looks and everything in between. For him to become what the Pistons need him to, Holland has to shoot it better.

Daniss Jenkins

Contract status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 9.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 34.9% FG%, 33.3% 3P%, 91.7% FT%

Analysis: Jenkins is super competitive for his size. He’s got good athleticism, which allows him to compete for rebounds and to take a shoulder, but stay in the play in on-ball defense. Jenkins needs to pick his scoring spots better, but he’s a good passer. Detroit has an interesting player to work with in the G League.

Bobi Klintman

Contract status: Four-years, $7.9M, Second Round Pick Exception

Stats: 11.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, 42% FG%, 41.9% 3P%

Analysis: Everything from Klintman was encouraging at Summer League, minus his finishing inside. He’s got enough size that he may eventually become a solid stretch-four option. That’s big for a Pistons team that is lacking somewhat in frontcourt depth. Apprenticing under Tobias Harris, who has a similar physical makeup and came in with a similar skillset, will be great for Klintman.

Wendell Moore Jr.

Contract status: Two-years, $7.1M, 2022 First Round Rookie Scale

Stats: 5.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 25% FG%, 16.7% 3P%

Analysis: Moore made a cameo appearance for the Pistons in Las Vegas. His spot on the team is mostly related to financial/cap matters, as opposed to Moore’s talent. We’ll see if that changes, but he has a lot of competition for minutes at either wing position.

Marcus Sasser

Contract status: Three-years, $10.8M, 2023 First-Round Rookie Scale

Stats: 12.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 5.2 APG, 2.0 SPG, 33.3% FG%, 25% 3P%, 79.3% FT%

Analysis: Sasser’s Summer League was like his rookie season: Flashes of brilliance around moments of inconsistency. Sasser was too quick, strong and smart for most point guard in Las Vegas. He got to the free throw line repeatedly. He also did a nice job defensively and made some plays as a passer. Unfortunately, Sasser was unable to build on a semi-encouraging shooting season as a rookie. The Pistons have more depth in the backcourt now. Sasser will have to fight to get consistent minutes this season.

Indiana Pacers

Kendall Brown

Contract status: Two-years, $4.4M

Stats: 9.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 41.5% FG%, 20% 3P%, 70.6% FT%

Analysis: As a third-year Summer Leaguer, Brown should have dominated. Alas, he didn’t. At moments, Brown looked really good. He was able to get by opposing forwards off the dribble and into the paint. At other times, he couldn’t get past anyone and settled for contested jumpers. Brown’s spot on the Pacers roster is probably contingent upon a two-way guy beating him out or the team needing a veteran upgrade.

Enrique Freeman

Contract status: Draft Rights Retained

Stats: 8.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 60.7% FG%, 45.5% FT%

Analysis: Freeman plays bigger than his 6-foot-7 size. That’s good, because he’s not ready to play on the perimeter in the NBA right now. Freeman’s shot is very much a work in progress. But when you compete as hard as he does, and you know how to play, betting on a guy like Freeman is always a solid move.

Johnny Furphy

Contract status: Four-years, $7.9M, Second Round Pick Exception

Stats: 14.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 37% FG%, 28.6% 3P%

Analysis: Furphy was every bit the athlete he was advertised to be. He did a nice job running the floor. Furphy was competitive defensively and did a nice job getting on the glass on both ends. The shot will look better eventually too. The Pacers have a nice player to develop through the G League this season.

Quenton Jackson

Contract status: Restricted Free Agent

Stats: 11.0 PPG, 4.2 APG, 2.4 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 62.5% FG%, 45.5% 3P%, 66.7% FT%

Analysis: Jackson looked good in his third run through Summer League. He was confident at getting into his shots and he drilled them at a high rate. It’s easy to see why the Pacers have held his restricted free agent rights. He could be back on a two-way contract, but maybe something more opens up for him.

Tristen Newton

Contract status: Draft Rights Retained

Stats: 9.0 PPG, 4.6 APG, 3.8 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 20% FG%, 18.2% 3P%, 89.3% FT%

Analysis: This space is a huge fan of Newton and wanted to see him look better. On the plus side, he showed he can really run a team. That stood out even on a Summer Pacers team with some NBA vets. Newton also got to the free throw line regularly and knocked them down at a good clip. Unfortunately, Newton shot like crap from everywhere else. He couldn’t finish in the paint and couldn’t get his jumpers to fall. A season in the G League will do him wonders.

Ben Sheppard

Contract status: Three-years, $10.5M, 2023 First-Round Rookie Scale

Stats: 7.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 25% FG%, 25% 3P%

Analysis: After he played in each of the Pacers playoff games, it was a surprise to see Sheppard make even a cameo appearance at Summer League. Sheppard shot it terribly, but this was apparently just getting a little extra run in. He’ll be battling for wing minutes in Indiana’s rotation this season.

Oscar Tshiebwe

Contract status: Restricted Free Agent

Stats: 11.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 61% FG%, 44.4% FT%

Analysis: Tshiebwe is who he is at this point. He’s an outstanding rebounder. He can finish around the rim at a decent clip. He’s ok defensively, but his lack of footspeed leaves him vulnerable on switches. Expect him back on a two-way deal this season. He’s good enough to provide emergency minutes in the frontcourt if necessary.

Jarace Walker

Contract status: Three-years, $21.5M, 2023 First-Round Rookie Scale

Stats: 18.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 42.6% FG%, 45.8% 3P%, 78.9% FT%

Analysis: Walker is ready for real minutes in the NBA. This summer, the Pacers clearly wanted to see him shoot threes and get to the free throw line. Mission accomplished. Walker also got on the glass and did a nice job as a playmaker. If he can shoot it consistently, he might crack Indiana’s wing rotation this season. Otherwise, it’s time for a trade to a team that can let him be a playmaking four.

Milwaukee Bucks

MarJon Beauchamp

Contract status: Two-years, $7.5M, 2022 First-Round Rookie Scale

Stats: 12.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.8 SPG, 32.7% FG%, 30.4% 3P%, 84.6% FT%

Analysis: Beauchamp should have been better as a third-time Summer Leaguer. The physical tools are good, but not good enough to make up for a shaky shot. We’re on the verge of the Bucks possibly declining their fourth-year rookie scale team option for Beauchamp to create some apron wiggle room for 2025-26.

Hugo Besson

Contract status: Draft Rights Retained

Stats: 7.8 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.3 RPG, 33.3% FG%, 18.2% 3P%, 72.2% FT%

Analysis: Besson looked better physically in his second Summer League. He was creating contact vs simply absorbing it. He’s an ok playmaker, but struggled a bit at breaking down defenses off the bounce. And the shot was really, really shaky. He’ll be playing overseas again next season.

Jaylin Galloway

Contract status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 2.4 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 41.7% FG%, 28.6% 3P%

Analysis: Galloway’s summer was weird. He barely played, despite heading into Year 2 as a two-way player for the Bucks. There’s not much to analyze here.

Andre Jackson Jr.

Contract status: Three-years, $6.5M, 2023 Second Round Pick Exception

Stats: 4.3 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, 50% FG%, 14.3% 3P%

Analysis: Jackson is never going to look good in this setting. He’s not an individual standout. Jackson shows up in the system/scheme. That said, it would have been nice to see him shoot it a bit better or even to be more aggressive hunting his shot. But that’s just not who he is.

A.J. Johnson

Contract status: Four-years, $14.6M, 2024 First-Round Rookie Scale

Stats: 11.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.8 APG, 32.3% FG%, 32.3% 3P%

Analysis: Johnson looks the part physically. He also understands pro-level spacing, which is a product of playing in Australia’s NBL last season. The big thing for Johnson will be figuring out NBA defense and refining his jumper. That’ll come in the G League, as the Bucks wing rotation is packed with veteran options.

Chris Livingston

Contract status: Three-years, $6.5M, 2023 Second Round Pick Exception

Stats: 14.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.0 APG, 53.7% FG%, 42.9% 3P%, 62.5% FT%

Analysis: Livingston was a nice surprise this summer. After a non-descript rookie season, he looked more NBA-ready this summer. Livingston was too much for a lot of his opponents to handle inside. He finished well, and flashed an improved jump shot too. He also got on the glass more too. The Bucks could use another frontcourt body. Livingston might be it.

Ryan Rollins

Contract status: One-year, Two-Way contract

Stats: 12.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, 47.8% FG%, 33.3% 3P%, 76.5% FT%

Analysis: Rollins looked pretty good in Las Vegas. He was able to create space for his shot. He did a nice job getting to the rim to shoot or to find passes. Rollins also knocked in a few pullup jumpers too. Defensively, he was fairly physical and flashed some quick hands. Solid summer for the Bucks two-way guard.

Tyler Smith

Contract status: Four-years, $7.9M, 2024 Second Round Pick Exception

Stats: 9.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 40.4% FG%, 28% 3P%

Analysis: Smith has the stretch-big skills that everyone wants…in theory. He didn’t shoot it well in Las Vegas, but got the attempts up with ease. That’s a positive. He also did a really nice job on the boards and contesting shots around the rim. The skills are there and he’ll develop further in the G League this season.

TyTy Washington Jr.

Contract status: Unrestricted Free Agent

Stats: 11.3 PPG, 2.3 APG, 43.6% FG%, 36.4% 3P%, 87.5% FT%

Analysis: It seems that the Bucks wanted Washington to work more as a scorer this summer. That’s a change in role for him, but he did ok with it. Washington’s size works against him in a scoring role, but he did a good job hunting shots anyway. As a third-year Summer Leaguer, ideally things would have been a bit easier for Washington. Another G League season or a trip overseas is likely coming.

 

Keith SmithJuly 22, 2024

The bulk of the offseason work is done around the NBA. There are a handful of impact free agents still available, but the vast majority of big names are off the board. Some teams are still looking at trades.

But we’re mostly done with the offseason. That means it’s time to start figuring out where teams are and what they’ve done this summer. (You can find the Eastern Conference here.)

Instead of grades, we’re going to bucket teams into one of four categories:

  • :+1: Liked: Their moves or non-moves were solid and made sense 
  • :-1: Disliked: Their moves or non-moves were questionable or didn’t make sense 
  • :man-shrugging: Confused: What are they doing? 
  • :neutral_face: Incomplete: Feels like there has to be more to come

Let’s dive in!

Western Conference

Dallas Mavericks: :+1: LIKED

The Mavericks offseason moves were low in volume, but high in impact. Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall and Quentin Grimes all joined the team. Derrick Jones Jr., Josh Green and Tim Hardaway Jr. all departed. In terms of straight comparisons, those are upgrades for Dallas.

Thompson is clearly the signature acquisition here. His shooting alone will be an upgrade for Dallas. He’s not the athlete he once was on defense, but Thompson is still pretty solid. The biggest difference is that he’s no longer picking up opposing point guards, but instead is better against bigger wings and forwards. Mostly, this was about adding shooting and some championship experience. When Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving turn the corner, they know Thompson will hit off a kickout pass. That’s huge to open up the floor.

Grimes is essentially a version of what Green was for Dallas: a wing with 3&D potential. If Grimes can get healthy, he should be able to get on track. Don’t expect a rookie scale extension here, unless it’s very team-friendly. The Mavs are going to want to see Grimes on the floor first.

Marshall was an outstanding signing for only part of the MLE. If you believe in the shooting (was it contract-year focus or finally figuring it out?), then Marshall was one of the best values of the summer. He’s a switchable defender, and as a bit more heft than Jones. That’s good for a team that doesn’t have enough defensive versatility against wings.

Overall, the Mavs got better this summer. They still have a couple of holes to fill. (Who defends opposing point guards? If Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving are out, who can step up as an additional on-ball creator?) But the defending Western Conference champs still have a move or two left in them too. This team is well positioned to make another run.

Denver Nuggets: :-1: DISLIKED

This one is pretty simple: Denver lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and it was for no reason other than not wanting to go deeper into the tax. Don’t let any “The second apron is so restrictive!” foolishness tell you otherwise here. The Nuggets didn’t have a lot of holes to fill. They could have signed Caldwell-Pope, but chose to save some money. That’s bad form for a title contender.

The additions were all fine. Dario Saric will help the frontcourt. His passing ability will allow the Nuggets to run some of the same stuff through Saric that they do with Nikola Jokic. DaRon Holmes II was a steal of a draft pick, but a torn Achilles during Summer League will cost him the season.

Even Trey Alexander and P.J. Hall were good gets on two-way deals. They are probably better than Jalen Pickett and Tyson Hunter, who both have two fully guaranteed seasons left on their deals. That’s something Denver will eventually have to figure out.

We’re going to factor in Russell Westbrook as an addition, as well. He’ll help the bench a lot more than most are giving him credit for. The Nuggets have very little behind Jamal Murray as far as ballhandling goes. Westbrook will help juice the Denver bench in non-Jokic and Murray minutes.

Speaking of Murray…What exactly is the holdup with his extension? If fears were so great of him getting hurt while playing with Canada at the Olympics, maybe he shouldn’t be playing? If that’s not it, then why not get him locked up and get this over with? It’s probably fine, but it’s a lingering to-do and that’s always a little worrisome.

The Nuggets still have a very good team. If Christian Braun is ready to start, they’ll be fine. But a questionable bench is still questionable. And Braun isn’t the defender or shooter that Caldwell-Pope is. Unless some of the kids pop in a way they haven’t yet, this summer feels like a miss for Denver.

Golden State Warriors: :+1: LIKED

It’s hard to have a good summer when you lose a franchise icon, but the Warriors bounced back just fine. Klay Thompson had slipped some, but he was still a good starter and he meant so much to the franchise’s rise. But the NBA calendar moves forever forward. Chris Paul and Dario Saric were also losses, but Golden State replaced them too.

The trio of Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield and De’Anthony Melton are different from the guys they are replacing, but all are capable players.

Anderson will give the Warriors all the passing-related connectedness that Saric did. He’s also a better-than-you-think defender against forwards. Anderson can’t shoot like Saric, so Golden State does lose a bit of that stretch-big element.

It’s a little unfair to think of Hield as the Thompson replacement. Most of that will come from more minutes for Brandin Podziemski. But Hield will help replace some of Thompson’s shooting ability. When the Warriors need to open up the floor, Hield will be a big part of it.

Lastly, Melton should be a better fit for the team than Paul was. Paul is still a productive player, but he’s a primary creator. That never meshed well in a Warriors offense keyed around Stephen Curry opening actions and Draymond Green’s playmaking. Melton’s ability to play off-ball, but still attack as a secondary creator should fit better. And, if he’s healthy, Melton is a defensive upgrade over Paul at this point too.

Houston Rockets: :neutral_face: Incomplete

There is no criticism here for the Rockets offseason. They nailed the draft pick of Reed Sheppard. Not only can he play (Sheppard is going to be a multi-time All-Star), but he also gives Houston some optionality in their backcourt. Sheppard can play as the primary point guard. Or he can shift over to play off-ball. Defensively, he’s competitive, even if a bit undersized.

But that was pretty much all the Rockets did this summer. Picking up A.J. Griffin was a solid enough flyer, but it’s not going to move the needle.

Houston seems to be holding off on extending either Jalen Green or Alperen Sengun, to increase their cap flexibility for the summer of 2025. That’s a fine plan. Green needs to play at a higher level for a longer period to prove he should land a big next contract. Sengun has shown that he deserves the big extension, but his smallish cap hold can be used to maximize cap space a lot like Philadelphia used Tyrese Maxey’s this summer.

As a result, this Rockets teams feels like they’re still a work in progress. And that’s ok! There are still a bunch of kids who have already shown a lot, with a lot more growth to come (something will eventually have to give with all of the forwards). Being patient is a choice, and it’s often the correct one. Next summer is the time for this team to really push things forward.

LA Clippers: :-1: DISLIKED

When you lose the only All-Star to change teams this summer, it’s going to be hard to have your offseason come up as one that we liked. Paul George has age- and injury-related concerns. He’s also really, really good!

Because there aren’t many movies about GMs and front offices, a favorite film of this space is Money Ball. When the Oakland A’s are trying to replace Jason Giambi, Billy Beane (as played by Brad Pitt) says, “Guys, you're still trying to replace Giambi. I told you we can't do it, and we can't do it. Now, what we might be able to do is recreate him. Re-create him in the aggregate.”

Even with the flexibility George’s departure created for the Clippers with the tax aprons and potential hard-caps, they still didn’t have cap space. So, to replace George, they had to think about recreating him in the aggregate.

Nicolas Batum, Derrick Jones Jr., Kris Dunn and Kevin Porter Jr. are all pretty good attempts at recreating some of what was lost in George. However, you can’t play six or seven players at once to replace the guy you lost. Also, in the NBA, four quarters rarely equal a dollar.

Batum and Jones will do well giving the Clippers some forward depth. Jones is the athletic big wing defender the team needed to replace George. Batum will give the Clippers a veteran who can defend bigger forwards, as well as providing some reliable shooting.

Dunn and Porter can recreate some of the on-ball ability lost in George’s and Russell Westbrook’s departures. If Porter’s head is right and he’s in a controlled system, he could put together a season that far outproduces his minimum contract. Dunn is a terrific defender and he’s been a much-improved shooter. He should be an upgrade over Westbrook, as either a starter or off the bench.

But the Clippers lost the best player to change teams this summer. Even if they did ok with bringing in guys to fill holes, this team is no longer on contender level. That’s a falloff from where LA has opened each of the last several seasons.

Los Angeles Lakers: :-1: DISLIKED

The Lakers drafted Dalton Knecht in the first round and Bronny James in the second round. They signed both players to standard first- and second-round contracts.

And that’s it.

Yes, LeBron James re-signed with the Lakers. And a handful of others picked up their options, because the Lakers give out player options like they’re candy on Halloween.

But as far as players in and out, it’s Knecht and the younger James in and Spencer Dinwiddie and Taurean Prince out.

That’s simply not good enough for a team that isn’t good enough. Sure, Knecht was a steal at the draft. He shouldn’t have fallen as far as he did. But Knecht alone isn’t turning around a poor offseason.

When LeBron James offered to take a good deal less than his max, the Lakers couldn’t close the deal to sign an impact player. They are now over the first apron and dancing around the second apron. That makes finding a trade that works a difficult task.

This offseason would have been termed “Incomplete” if it weren’t the culmination of several mismanaged offseasons in a row, dating back to the Russell Westbrook trade. While nothing has approached the disaster that deal turned out to be, it’s been a series of nicks and cuts to the cap sheet. That’s left the Lakers with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and a collection of role players, some of whom are overpaid and have overlapping skillsets. That’s why this summer of relative inaction gets a thumbs down.

Memphis Grizzlies: :+1: LIKED

The Memphis Grizzlies didn’t have a lot to do this summer. This offseason was mostly about getting healthy for several key Grizzlies. Another season of playing 30-plus different players simply can’t happen again.

That said, Memphis did do some nice work this summer. Zach Edey should be an outstanding fit at the center position. Memphis needed to get a five, and a long-term one, in the fold. Edey will need some time to adjust to the NBA, but he’s going to stumble into 10 points and eight rebounds per game just by being enormous. And his brief Summer League moments showed he could be a whole lot more.

The trade to clear out Ziaire Williams was a two-fold winner. One, it cleared out one of the many contenders for minutes at small forward. Now, Memphis can move forward with some combination of Marcus Smart, Vince Williams Jr., GG Jackson and Jake LaRavia at the three.

Just as importantly, Memphis now has the wiggle room around the tax line to re-sign Luke Kennard. The Grizzlies need Kennard’s shooting. They now have the ability to re-sign him without worry of tripping too deep into the tax or brushing up against the first apron.

Also, keep an eye on Jaylen Wells and Cam Spencer. Both second-rounders can play. Memphis has done a better job than most with developing players through the G League. Wells and Spencer might be next.

Minnesota Timberwolves: :+1: LIKED

As one of the NBA’s most expensive teams, what the Timberwolves could do this summer was pretty limited. But Tim Connelly and crew got creative at the draft and landed a big-time talent in Rob Dillingham.

There are few restrictions on trades for second-apron teams when they don’t involve salaries. Draft picks don’t involve salary in trade until the player is signed. Minnesota used this “loophole” to trade high into the first round to snag Dillingham.

The rookie point guard is going to get a nice apprenticeship under Mike Conley this season. Dillingham should be able to play through his mistakes as a backup, while figuring out the NBA. He’s going to have to be more of a playmaker for the Wolves than he was in college. Dillingham showed good signs of making that adjustment during Summer League. He was looking to create for others more than just trying to find his shot. That’s a positive start.

Terrence Shannon Jr. looks like a steal late in the first round. He went through some legal issues during his final collegiate season and the pre-draft process. Shannon was eventually cleared of the charges, and landed in Minnesota. He might need a season to adjust to the NBA, but eventually, Shannon will give the Timberwolves another wing scorer.

Joe Ingles was a terrific pickup to replace Kyle Anderson. Ingles is a better shooter and passer than Anderson. And he’s not far off Anderson as a forward defender. He’ll help keep things calm and composed on a second unit that will be led by a rookie point guard.

Without the ability to do much, Minnesota nailed the draft in a way we weren’t expecting. And then they picked up Ingles to replace Anderson. That’s a pretty productive summer.

New Orleans Pelicans: :neutral_face: Incomplete

There might not be a team in the NBA who feels like they have more left to do than the Pelicans do. The team has a bunch of talented players, but they overlap positionally in a major way. As things stand, Willie Green has to find a way to play Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III. Oh, and none of those guys are a center.

That means that two of that talented bunch are ticketed for a bench role. Maybe the team can squeeze another year out of Murphy coming off the bench, but the clock is ticking on that one. All of the others are established starters. And this isn’t a championship level of team calling upon a veteran to sacrifice for the greater good either.

Maybe an Ingram trade will deliver a center and clarity to the starting lineup. But it’s late-July now and no such trade has come yet. And the market doesn’t exactly seem to clamoring to trade value for Ingram and to sign him to a contract extension.

Despite the weird spot the Pelicans are in, getting Murray for some players who didn’t seem to have much future in New Orleans and a couple of picks was good work. He’ll be terrific for them, once the rest of the roster is sorted out.

As of now, Daniel Theis will probably start at center. Theis was a nice pickup, and he can be a solid spot-starter. But if he’s your every-game option at the five, that’s not good enough for a team that wants to be a solid playoff team. Yves Missi was a nice upside pick in the draft, but he’s going to need time before he’s ready to contribute to a winner in the NBA.

The other shoe hasn’t dropped in New Orleans yet. It’s now starting to feel like it might not either. It’s just kind of dangling there, hanging onto the end of the foot. We keep waiting for it to fall, but there’s been no movement yet.

Oklahoma City Thunder: :+1: LIKED

The Thunder were really good last year, even if it felt like it came a year early. They announced to the world that they were here and ready to win, regardless of whatever timeline we all might have put on them.

This summer, Oklahoma City got even better.

Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso were fantastic pickups for Sam Presti’s squad. And the Thunder sacrificed very little to get the two veterans.

Hartenstein gives Mark Daigneault lineup versatility he didn’t have before. When OKC faces off against the bigger centers in the league. Daigneault can go to Hartenstein for the extra bulk on the interior. And for those clamoring on about how “Chet Holmgren is best at the five because he’s a matchup nightmare for defenses!”, the Thunder can, and will, still use Holmgren as their five plenty. Hartenstein just gives the ability to go bigger when the occasion calls for it.

As for Caruso, his defensive ability gives Daigneault another ball-hawking guard/wing to throw at opponents. If Lu Dort is the bulky wing defender, Caruso is the quicker, point-of-attack version. Caruso’s connectiveness as a passer is also big. The Thunder will occasionally miss Josh Giddey’s on-ball creation and passing, especially when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is sitting. But some of those reps can be taken on by Jalen Williams, who is ready for more on-ball duties, and Cason Wallace, who should improve in Year 2. And Caruso’s defense and better shooting are welcomed additions in place of Giddey.

At the draft, Nikola Topic was a sneaky pick and might not pay off for a year. But Oklahoma City has experience with that with Holmgren. Dillon Jones is the kind of smaller-school, long, playmaking wing that the Thunder have developed already. And Ajay Mitchell is a funky, herky-jerky on-ball guard to develop on a two-way contract.

If all that wasn’t enough, the Thunder structured their moves this summer to leave flexibility for down the line too. The future is bright for Oklahoma City,  but the Thunder are already here and ready to contend now.

Phoenix Suns: :+1: LIKED

Like the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Suns didn’t have much they could do this summer. In a different way, the Suns also made the most of their limited resources.

Phoenix did well to get Monte Morris and Mason Plumlee in free agency. Both players will fill rotation spots while on the veteran minimum. That’s huge for a team that doesn’t have a lot of ways to upgrade.

The Suns also got a little creative and daring with re-signing Royce O’Neale and Josh Okogie. O’Neale’s contract is pretty fair value, even if it runs out a year longer than is ideal. Okogie got overpaid to turn him into a “human trade exception”, but not by an amount where his contract is untradable or anything. That’s good work to create some tradable salary by the Phoenix front office, and good for Okogie to get a nice bump in pay he otherwise wouldn’t have seen.

Ryan Dunn and Oso Ighodaro were considered two of the best defensive players in this year’s draft class. The Suns got both of them. Dunn and Ighodaro both have a long way to go to improve offensively, but Phoenix isn’t lacking for offense. If the two rookies play defense, run the floor and finish at the rim, that’ll be enough to get them on the floor this season.

Part of evaluating an offseason is looking at what a team could do with the resources available to them. The Suns did a terrific job making the most of what they could do this summer.

Portland Trail Blazers: :neutral_face: Incomplete

Portland traded Malcolm Brogdon to get themselves under the tax. In the process, they gave up a couple of draft picks, but also got back Deni Avdija. That’s a win.

And then the Blazers just kind of stopped making moves. And there’s still a lot more to do here.

Donovan Clingan was a great pick in the first round. He could, and arguably should, have been picked at least a few picks earlier. He should be a great fit in Portland, because Clingan can clean up for the guards (none of whom are great defenders), while giving them a big target on the interior.

The challenge? He’s now crammed into a center rotation that already includes Deandre Ayton (who is going to start) and Robert Williams III, who is back from another knee surgery. Something has to give there, because Clingan needs minutes.

The Trail Blazers also still have all of Jerami Grant, Matisse Thybulle and Anfernee Simons. There are other, younger players behind each of these veterans. That’s not necessarily a problem, but it’s a little crowded.

Mostly, Portland feels like a home that is being renovated one room at a time, as opposed to tearing it down to the studs and rebuilding from there. That’s not really a bad thing, but it makes the entire rebuilding process drag out longer than is ideal, and you have to live with some messiness while you rebuild.

Sacramento Kings: :man-shrugging: Confused

What exactly are the Kings building here? This team has a whole lot of offense, but not much defense. The offense also features a bunch of on-ball guys and not enough shooting.

DeMar DeRozan is a very good player. He’s also an upgrade over Harrison Barnes in a vacuum. But is he an upgrade for this particular Kings team? Only time will tell.

Sacramento started the summer off strong with a really great value deal for Malik Monk. He’s awesome and can excel as a starter or coming off the bench. For the way this roster is built, Monk should probably come off the bench. But he’s made some noise about wanting to start. We’ll see how that plays out.

Mostly, Sacramento has gone all-in on offense. There’s a ton of passing and creation on this roster now. DeRozan is adaptable and smart enough that he’ll find a way to mesh his game with the two-man excellence of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Monk’s shooting will get him on the floor too. In some lineups, Keegan Murray is the fifth offensive option, which is a role he’s highly overqualified for.

Maybe that will make the Kings a regular season monster. It worked for the Indiana Pacers, who were differently built, but similarly offensive-focused. You won’t be able to take nights off against Sacramento, because they’ll score enough to challenge you.

But what is the ultimate goal here? They broke the playoff drought a couple of years ago. Are the Kings trying to advance into title contention? Or are they just trying to get back to the playoffs again?

San Antonio Spurs: :man-shrugging: Confused

The Spurs are going to be better next season. Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes will help this team grow up a lot quicker than they might have otherwise. Also, Victor Wembanyama is going to terrorize the league in whole new ways, now that he’s not adjusting to the NBA anymore.

But what’s the endgame? Are the Spurs trying to make the playoffs? If so, why not move a couple more of the kids and some draft picks and get another veteran to really push things forward? Are they just trying to be better, but not really cash in just yet? That seems like it was coming anyway.

This space begged for the Spurs to play a point guard to help Wembanyama and others last season. Paul is enormous upgrade if for that reason only. He’ll get everyone organized and create easier looks for a bunch of guys who were a DIY project last year.

Barnes will take the young forwards under his wing. He can teach them the value of defending, knowing when to stay rooted to your spot and when to make that late cut into space. Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan should both benefit from going against and working with Barnes every day.

Stephon Castle can now apprentice under Paul for a year, because he and San Antonio seem hellbent on making Castle into a point guard. The bet here is that he makes the adjustment to primary lead guard, because Castle is too talented to not figure it out.

But the Spurs run the risk of improving enough that they’ll be out of range for another high draft pick. Is that really the best decision, given the strength of the 2025 draft class? And if it is, why not trade for someone like Lauri Markkanen or Brandon Ingram, who could lift this team into postseason contention this season?

Instead, it feels like the Spurs are caught kind of in between right now. No longer bad enough to get another great pick before Wembanyama lifts them into playoff contention all by himself. But maybe San Antonio knows Wembanyama was making that lift this season anyway, so why not give him a little help to get there? We’ll find out soon enough.

Utah Jazz: :neutral_face: Incomplete

As of this writing, Lauri Markkanen is still a member of the Utah Jazz. And Utah still has over $30 million in cap space to work with this summer, should they want to go that direction.

However, Markkanen is still on the trade market. And the Jazz are still open to renegotiating-and-extending the All-Star forward’s deal when they are eligible on August 6. Or Utah could still make a move to trade for a high-salaried player and make a playoff push this season, then re-sign Markkanen next summer.

Starting to get that “Incomplete” feeling yet?

No one seems to have a real good sense for what exactly Utah is doing, beyond the fact that Danny Ainge isn’t done. Almost anything is on the table here of the above options. That also includes, renegotiating-and-extending Markkanen as soon as they can on August 6, so that the team could trade him when his six-month trade restriction lifts on trade deadline day of February 6.

As for what we can evaluate, the Jazz have done well. Cody Williams, Isaiah Collier and Kyle Filipowski were one heck of a draft class. Williams looks like he’s the kind of versatile wing that ever team wants nowadays. Collier was once considered to be the potential first overall pick, so the talent is there. And Filipowski had a first-round grade from most teams, until some weirdness ahead of the draft caused him to fall.

In free agency, the Jazz picked up Drew Eubanks, who is a nice addition at the center spot. Given Utah is still shopping Walker Kessler for whatever reason, Eubanks is nice to have in the fold. Johnny Juzang also got a nice contract after outplaying his two-way deal over the last two seasons.

Something more is coming for the Jazz. We have no idea what that is, which is probably just how Ainge wants it. Until then, this offseason and this roster is incomplete.

 

Keith SmithJuly 20, 2024

The Memphis Grizzlies needed to clear some room under the luxury tax to re-sign a key rotation player. The Brooklyn Nets are in rebuilding mode. That made them ideal trade partners in a smaller late-July deal that could pay big dividends down the line.

Here are the particulars of the trade:

Brooklyn Nets acquire: Ziaire Williams, 2030 Dallas Mavericks second-round pick

Memphis Grizzlies acquire: Mamadi Diakite, draft rights to Nemanja Dangubic

Let’s dive in!

Brooklyn Nets

Incoming salary: $6.1 million in 2024-25

  • Ziaire Williams (SF, one year, $6.1 million)

Outgoing salary: $2.3 million in 2024-25

  • Mamadi Diakite (PF, one year, $2.3 million)

The Nets are taking a flyer on Ziaire Williams. This is the exact type of move a rebuilding team should be making. And this is the kind of no-risk move that has paid off big for Sean Marks in the past.

After a promising rookie year, where he played well in the second half of the season, Williams has suffered two injury-plagued seasons and never found his rhythm. As a rookie, the 6-foot-9 forward averaged 8.1 points on 45% shooting. From January onward, it seemed Williams had found his footing in the NBA, as he averaged 9.6 points on 48% shooting.

The next two seasons were a mess with injuries and inconsistent play. By the end of last season, Williams was back on the shelf with an injury, and had been passed in the rotation by Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson.

Still, Williams has good size and is a good athlete. He’s only turning 23 before next season. He’s extension-eligible, but it’s unlikely the Nets will look to sign Williams to a new deal.

It feels like Brooklyn is only just getting started with moving on from veterans this offseason. If they trade any of Dorian Finney-Smith, Bojan Bogdanovic or Cameron Johnson, Williams will have a clear path to all the minutes he can handle. At the cost of taking on about $5 million in guaranteed salary, that’s a no-risk flyer with upside.

Memphis Grizzlies

Incoming salary: $2.3 million ($1.4 million guaranteed) in 2024-25

  • Mamadi Diakite (PF, one year, $2.3 million ($1.4 million guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $6.1 million in 2024-25

  • Ziaire Williams (SF, one year, $6.1 million)

No offense to Mamadi Diakite, but this trade wasn’t about him. Nor was this deal about acquiring the draft rights to Nemanja Dangubic either.

Diakite may stick around in Memphis for a while. They could use another frontcourt player, and Diakite is a hard worker who plays with great energy. Considering his deal is guaranteed for $1.4 million, the Grizzlies might as well bring him to camp to see what he can do.

As for Dangubic, the 31-year-old forward is unlikely to ever come to the NBA. He’s found a role as a journeyman backup shooting forward on various European clubs over the years. That’s likely to continue for the next couple of years.

For Memphis, this deal was about clearing some additional room under the luxury tax. The Grizzlies didn’t want to pay the luxury tax this season, and potentially start the clock towards being a tax repeater down the line. But Memphis did want to re-sign Luke Kennard. Something had to give.

Now, the Grizzlies can have the best of both worlds. Memphis is about $10 million clear of the luxury tax. That’s enough room to re-sign Kennard to a fair-value contract. Memphis could even start Kennard’s deal high and have it decline in value from year to year. That might mean shedding another salary along the way, but that’s hardly an impossible task.

This is also a good sign that the Grizzlies are open to cutting bait on former draft picks as necessary. Memphis has historically been reluctant to move on from players they invested in as former draft picks. And the Grizzlies also did swing a trade to acquire Williams, adding to their attachment. But sometimes, when the roster starts to get full, you have to move on, no matter the investment made.

Kennard will play a bigger and more important role in any success the Grizzlies have this season and beyond. Memphis has other options at the small forward spot now too. This was a good, smart move that should pay off in better roster balance with Kennard back in the fold.

 

Keith SmithJuly 20, 2024

The Denver Nuggets had been on the lookout for a backup point guard all offseason. The LA Clippers and Russell Westbrook had been headed towards a breakup, meaning they needed another guard themselves. With the help of the Utah Jazz, all three teams came out ahead.

We’ll cover on Westbrook’s fit with the Nuggets at the end, but first the particulars of the trade.

LA Clippers acquire: Kris Dunn via sign-and-trade

Utah Jazz acquire: Russell Westbrook, draft rights to Balsa Koprivica, 2030 second-round pick swap, $4.3 million in cash

Let’s dive in!

LA Clippers

Incoming salary: $5.4 million in 2024-25 (estimated)

  • Kris Dunn (PG, three years, $17 million (estimated))

Outgoing salary: $4.0 million in 2024-25

  • Russell Westbrook (PG, one year, $4.0 million)

The Clippers and Westbrook were headed for a breakup just about as soon as he picked up his player option. Westbrook didn’t want to leave a couple million on the table, but also didn’t want to stay with the Clippers. LA seemed to be of the same mind, so they immediately set about finding a trade. It took a bit to land on one, but eventually they got there.

Dunn has done a wonderful job getting his NBA career on track. After looking like he was headed out of the league, Dunn became a much-improved shooter. He also because a better playmaker. And his defense is at an elite level.

For roughly the Taxpayer MLE amount, the Clippers get a solid third guard for their rotation. Dunn can also start if/when necessary. On a team where some other guards and wings are older and/or injury-prone, this is an excellent get for LA. Don’t be surprised if Dunn passes some of his more notable teammates in the rotation fairly early in the season.

Utah Jazz

Incoming salary: $4.0 million in 2024-25

  • Russell Westbrook (PG, one year, $4.0 million)

Outgoing salary: $5.4 million in 2024-25 (estimated)

  • Kris Dunn (PG, three years, $17 million (estimated))

The Jazz seemed to be moving on from Dunn this summer, one way or another. They have a lot of other guards, and added another in Isaiah Collier at the draft. So, for renting out a bit of their cap space (and no actual money paid, because the Clippers covered Westbrook’s salary by sending cash), the Jazz picked up the rights to swap 2030 second-round picks.

Utah also received the draft rights to Balsa Koprivica in this draft. The 7-foot-1 inch center has spent the last three seasons playing for Partizan in Serbia. Koprivica has done well for Partizan, but hasn’t established himself as a regular starter. Because he’s only 24 years old, Koprivica could still have a future in the NBA, but it seems unlikely.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets weren’t involved in this trade, but will still land Russell Westbrook in the end. Denver could have acquired Westbrook directly, by absorbing his salary into the trade exception they have from sending Reggie Jackson to the Charlotte Hornets. But waiting to sign Westbrook after he’s waived by Utah is the more cost-effective strategy.

By waiting, Denver will sign the Westbrook to a veteran minimum salary worth about $2.1 million. That’s roughly a $2 million savings over the $4 million that will now land on Utah’s books. For Denver, who is dealing with a luxury bill and apron issues, they actually save nearly $5 million this way. And, the Nuggets also have the Jackson TPE, should they want to use it later.

On the court, Westbrook will play a big role for the Nuggets. The point guard depth behind Jamal Murray was pretty shaky. Jackson was salary-dumped, Jalen Pickett doesn’t appear to be ready to step in and Trey Alexander is a rookie on a two-way contract. Westbrook should have a clear runway to the backup job.

In the regular season, the veteran point guard will probably play around 20-25 minutes a night. That’s fine for a team that can use some juice on their second unit. In the postseason, when Westbrook’s lack of shooting shows up in glaring ways, his role will probably be reduced to 10 minutes a night. Michael Malone should be able to spot Westbrook minutes in lineups where his lack of a reliable jumper won’t matter as much.

 

Keith SmithJuly 18, 2024

The bulk of the offseason work is done around the NBA. There are a handful of impact free agents still available, but the vast majority of big names are off the board. Some teams are still looking at trades.

But we’re mostly done with the offseason. That means it’s time to start figuring out where teams are and what they’ve done this summer. Instead of grades, we’re going to bucket teams into one of four categories:

  • :+1: Liked: Their moves or non-moves were solid and made sense 
  • :-1: Disliked: Their moves or non-moves were questionable or didn’t make sense
  • :man-shrugging: Confused: What are they doing?
  • :neutral_face: Incomplete: Feels like there has to be more to come

Let’s dive in!

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks: :-1: Disliked 

The Hawks did ok in the Dejounte Murray trade. He was the only player of consequence that they lost. But they still traded him less than a year after signing him to a fair-value extension. That’s not great. Of the players the Hawks brought in, there’s a chance that only Dyson Daniels sticks and has a role. Larry Nance Jr. could be flipped in another trade, and E.J. Liddell and Cody Zeller might not make the opening night roster.

Murray was the only player of consequence that Atlanta lost this summer. The big addition for the Hawks was Zaccharie Risacher. It’s not Atlanta’s fault that they got the first overall pick in the weakest draft in a decade. But Risacher looks like he’ll be a player. However, that’s a crowded forward group that’s he’s trying to crack.

Mostly, this feels like the Hawks could and should have picked more of a direction. Instead, they feel like they are still somewhere around the Play-In Tournament. Not good enough to be a real playoff team. Not bad enough to get another high pick in a great draft. Just sort of stuck in the middle.

Boston Celtics: :+1: Liked 

Boston was miles above the second apron, so what they could do this summer was pretty limited. They re-signed Luke Kornet, Xavier Tillman Sr. and Neemias Queta at the center spot. That’s big, considering Kristaps Porzingis is likely to be out until the holidays and Al Horford will have his minutes and games managed. All three of Kornet, Tillman and Queta contributed at various points during the title run.

Most importantly, the Celtics extended both Jayson Tatum and Derrick White without even a hesitation on the part of the players or the team. Yes, the core is insanely expensive, and the team may not have a super long window with this group. But the champs are running it back. That’s great for Boston.

Adding Baylor Scheierman at the draft seems like a solid value with the 30th pick in the draft. And he played in South Dakota for part of his college career, so the cold weather in Maine won’t be anything new for him!

Brooklyn Nets: :+1: Liked 

The Nets are probably going to be awful next season. Maybe worst-in-the-NBA awful. But that’s ok! At least they have a direction.

Keeping Mikal Bridges and making some moves around him probably puts Brooklyn where Atlanta is: Play-In Tournament, but without much upside. That’s…not great.

Now, the Nets have their own picks back in the next two drafts, which look to be very deep. They have control over most of the New York Knicks draft future. That probably won’t yield much in the next few seasons, but things flip fairly quickly in the NBA. Having picks five-to-seven years out is huge.

The Nets have another trade or two in them too. Bojan Bogdanovic, Dorian Finney-Smith and Cameron Johnson won’t bring back monster returns, but all should net Brooklyn some assets.

This is going to be an ugly season. But an ugly season with purpose is a good thing.

Charlotte Hornets: :-1: Disliked 

This one is best termed as a pretty mild dislike. The Hornets didn’t really do anything bad. But they didn’t do anything great either. So, we’re just kind of in the same spot as before, but with a bit more salary on the books.

Miles Bridges’ contract isn’t bad. It declines in value year over year, which is nice. If he really pops, it’ll be hard to extend him, but that’s tomorrow’s problem. The bigger issue is whether or not Charlotte should have cut ties with Bridges entirely. It’s hard to argue against that, but they’ve already taken the PR hit that came from welcoming him back. If they believe Bridges is truly changing who he is, then it makes sense to keep working with him.

Josh Green was a pretty good flyer for the Hornets. His contract is fine and he’s already the best perimeter defender on the roster. If he shoots it well enough, Green will fit in nicely as a 3&D wing.

The knock on the offseason is two-fold. First, drafting Tidjane Salaun felt like a bit of a reach. Salaun is very young, so this is all about potential. Maybe he learns to shoot, and Salaun and Branon Miller become a like-sized switchable perimeter duo. But there were other players on the board with just as much upside, and far less downside.

The second knock is that the Hornets didn’t maximize their cap space. They took on Green, which was fine. But they ate Reggie Jackson’s contract for a second time. They got some second-round picks out of that, which is ok. But why not use that space to bring in someone who can actually help?

Chicago Bulls: :-1: Disliked 

If we were ranking the worst offseasons, the Bulls would near the top, if not at the very top, of the list. This is a real mess.

Trading Alex Caruso for Josh Giddey may end up working out fine. Giddey is good. He’ll have even more on-ball freedom in Chicago. We’re going to find out what he can really be this season. The downside, beyond his inability to shoot? Giddey is extension-eligible right now. That’s a tough needle to thread. It’s probably best to let it play out, but that could backfire if Giddey has a great season. Pay him now and he doesn’t play well, you’re stuck with his contract. Oh…and how do you not get even a single pick when making a deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder? They gave five second-round picks to the Knicks for a single late first-round pick. The Bulls couldn’t have gotten a second or two in this deal? Sheesh.

As for the rest of the summer, there were things that look good. Matas Buzelis looks like a steal. He’s incredibly competitive and he’s skilled. That’s a great combination. Plus, Buzelis is playing with a giant chip on his shoulder after slipping in the draft.

Patrick Williams’ contract is fine. There’s been some handwringing about the deal, but it’s fine. By the end, Williams will be making MLE money. He should at least deliver that kind of value. At least!

Jalen Smith’s deal is also a good one. The value is very fair at $9 million AAV. He’s young enough to fit on a rebuilding team, or good enough to fit on a team making a push for the Play-In Tournament.

And therein lies the rub: What is the plan here? Did the Bulls get caught trying to bottom out, but couldn’t find trades for Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic? Do they not want to trade one of both of those guys?

As it stands, Chicago is going to be bad, but if they have both LaVine and Vucevic, they won’t be really bad. And really bad is where they want to be in this draft. This is more of the same, half-in stuck-in-the-middle stuff. That’s not good enough, nor bad enough and not what Bulls fans deserve.

Cleveland Cavaliers: :-1: Disliked 

This assessment is strictly about a summer of mostly inaction. Cleveland did well to get Donovan Mitchell extended, even if he’ll hit the market earlier than hoped for. The Cavs also didn’t cave to pressure and trade away Jarrett Allen or Darius Garland. Making no deal far outweighs making a bad deal.

But making no deals at all, of any kind, that’s not a good thing. The only new player Cleveland has added is first-round pick Jaylon Tyson.

That’s the whole list.

And it’s not like Boston, who re-signed a bunch of guys off a title, or Memphis, who is welcoming back players who missed large chunks of last season.

The Cavs are just the Cavs.

That’s not necessarily bad, but as the rest of their Eastern Conference standings neighbors got better, Cleveland didn’t. That sort of doing nothing isn’t helpful. And it’s likely to cost the Cavaliers this season.

Detroit Pistons: :man-shrugging: Confused 

Look, the Pistons had to add some veteran talent. That part makes sense. Especially adding a couple of shooters. The worst thing you can do for young playmakers is to tell them to drive and kick, only to watch the jumpers repeatedly clank of the rim. Those drive-and-kicks become contested off-the-dribble shots instead. No one gets better that way.

Adding Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. makes sense. They should both help open the floor the Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson and rookie Ron Holland II (who was a good upside pick for Detroit).

But did they really have to sign Tobias Harris? And who were the Pistons competing against? And don’t say “Well, they need to hit the salary floor!” One, they don’t. That’s a choice. Two, there are a lot of other ways to hit the salary floor. And that’s true even if we recognize Harris isn’t nearly as bad as some pretend and that he’ll help the Detroit this season.

Swinging back to positives…Simone Fontecchio got a really good deal. Paul Reed was a terrific waiver claim. Bobi Klintman might be a steal in the second round.

Are the Pistons better? They should be. Are they good? Nope. Not yet. Did this knock them out of the running for a top-five pick in a deep draft? Unclear. And that’s where the confusion comes in.

Indiana Pacers: :-1: Disliked 

This one is really probably more of a “Meh” than a true dislike. Did the Pacers do anything truly bad? Nope. Did they do anything really good? Not really.

Some of this is the nature of Indiana making a pre-agency move by trading for Pascal Siakam last year. They were always going to re-sign him. He was always going to get the max or really close to it. So, good on the Pacers for making it for only four years. That part is probably a minor win.

This space also really likes Obi Toppin. And he got a pretty team-friendly deal too. If he played around 30 minutes per game, this deal would probably look even better.

But that’s the problem! The Pacers gave almost $250 million over the next four years to two guys who play the same position and can’t really play together. Maybe they’ll start putting Siakam and Toppin on the floor together, but in 17 playoff games (when Indiana was missing players due to injuries), the two power forwards logged only 8.9 minutes together. That was up from 6.0 minutes per game together in the regular season.

If Siakam and Toppin can’t play together, having that much money invested in overlapping players isn’t a good use of resources. That’s especially true of a team that has often acted with the luxury tax as a self-imposed hard cap.

To close on some positives: James Wiseman was a terrific flyer. Indiana did really well with Jalen Smith, who had failed to live up to his draft position. If they can work similar magic with Wiseman, they’ll have a steal for a partially guaranteed contract. Also, Johnny Furphy was a nice pickup in the second round. Most had a first-round grade on him, so he seems like a good value pick.

Miami Heat: :-1: Disliked 

The Heat lost a key rotation player in Caleb Martin, and it’s not entirely clear why. Martin ultimately took less money from the Philadelphia 76ers than the Heat reportedly offered him. This may have been about playing time or a bigger role. No matter what, Miami lost a good player and they lost him to a conference competitor.

Alec Burks was a nice pickup for the veteran minimum. He’ll play a big role while Josh Richardson works his way back. Richardson said recently that he’s hoping to be ready for training camp. That gives Burks an immediate avenue to playing time.

The draft delivered Kel’el Ware. He’s got talent for days, but his work ethic and hustle were question marks. It’s a good bet Miami believes they can correct that. Summer League has been a good indicator that they were right.

In the end, the Heat are kind of bringing the same team back as last year. And the year before that. But some of their key guys are older and just as injury-prone as before. And Jimmy Butler doesn’t seem happy. That’s never a good sign for a team.

Milwaukee Bucks: :+1: Liked 

When you start the process of considering, or grading, NBA offseasons, you have to keep in mind what the team had to work with in the first place. In Milwaukee’s case, they didn’t have much to work with, but made the most of their limited resources.

Adding Gary Trent Jr. (who should start), Taurean Prince (who will probably start when forwards miss time), and Delon Wright (ditto for when Damian Lillard is out) all on veteran minimums is great work. All three can play and are upgrades over the players they are replacing.

A.J. Johnson and Tyler Smith were upside picks at the draft. Doc Rivers isn’t about to play either rookie, so we’ll be tracking their development through the G League this season.

The Bucks probably didn’t close the gap on the Celtics by a significant margin or anything. And the Knicks and Sixers are now on the same tier as the Bucks are. But Milwaukee got deeper and better with only minimums to work with. That’s a solid summer.

New York Knicks: :+1: Liked 

The Knicks gave up a lot to get Mikal Bridges, but it was probably worth it. Especially if Bridges being in the fold influenced Jalen Brunson to sign such a team-friendly extension. They probably overpaid a tad to re-sign OG Anunoby, but it’s not by a glaring margin or anything.

The only real hole on this roster is at backup center. It’s kind of a big one, given Mitchell Robinson’s track record of missing games. But New York has enough tradable players to fill that spot when they find the right guy to acquire. In the interim, re-signing Precious Achiuwa to a reasonable deal is more than a serviceable get-by, should that come to pass.

There are some long-term questions, even with Brunson leaving some money on the table. Will Mikal Bridges do the same? What happens with Julius Randle? What if there are too many overlapping players for everyone to play enough?

But none of those questions are “right now” questions. The Knicks are deep, versatile and better. This is the best team New York has entered a season with in several years.

Orlando Magic: :+1: Liked 

The Magic had a busy summer. The big move was that they essentially replaced Markelle Fultz with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. As much as Fultz is a feel-good story for making it back from injuries to become a solid rotation player, Caldwell-Pope is a huge upgrade. He’s probably the best shooter on the roster now. And a Caldwell-Pope and Jalen Suggs backcourt is going to make life really difficult on opposing ballhandlers.

Beyond that, Orlando took care of their own guys. They re-signed Moe Wagner, Gary Harris, Goga Bitadze and renegotiated-and-extended Jonathan Isaac. All four of those players got fair-value deals. And the Magic have some level of team control/protection on Wagner, Harris and Isaac too. That’s good for future flexibility as the team gets more expensive.

Part of that “getting more expensive” is because the Magic extended Franz Wagner on a max deal. That might be a bit of an overpay, but it’s probably fine. Even in a terrible shooting year, Wagner played pretty well. If he can rediscover his shot, and he should be able to, Wagner is an All-Star candidate. And Wagner was the first to extend of a trio that also includes Suggs (this summer) and Paolo Banchero (next summer).

Orlando still needs to extend Suggs too, but unless they make a major mistake there, this was an outstanding summer for the Magic.

Philadelphia 76ers: :+1: Liked 

The Sixers put together their plan a year in advance. For a year, Daryl Morey made moves while preserving 2024 cap space. It all paid off in a monster summer for Philadelphia.

Paul George is the headliner, obviously. He’s the best player to change teams this summer, and it’s by a decent margin too. George is the only All-Star to jump to a new team. Even at his age, a max deal is perfectly fine.

Are there injury concerns for George and Joel Embiid? 100%. Anyone saying otherwise is trying to convince themselves that an alternate timeline has merged with ours.

Injury issues being acknowledged, George is an outstanding fit. He’s the big versatile wing the 76ers needed between Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. He can carry the offense when Embiid or Maxey are off the floor or missing a game. George is also a good, versatile defender, which Nick Nurse will love.

Beyond landing George, Morey worked some cap magic to fill out the roster. Maxey got his max deal, as we all knew was coming. Well-earned by him. Kelly Oubre Jr. was re-signed via the Room Exception. Andre Drummond is a luxury when Embiid plays, but a necessity when Embiid doesn’t play. That’s $5 million well spent.

Caleb Martin for the remaining cap space? Perfect fit. Kyle Lowry and Eric Gordon as the backup backcourt for the minimum? Yes, please! Jared McCain and Adem Bona as developmental players from the draft? Sign me up!

Even re-signing K.J. Martin to a perfectly tradable “human trade exception” contract is a win for both player and team.

The Sixers have been good before, but always a touch overrated. Is this team a title favorite? No. But they are close. Closer than ever since getting Embiid, actually. It’ll all depend on health come April, May, and Philadelphia hopes, June.

Toronto Raptors: :man-shrugging: Confused 

The Raptors have a nice collection of players. You look at the roster, and you’ll probably say to yourself, “I like him!” about at least 10 guys. But is this really a team?

They’ve got wings for days. Big wings, small wings, shooters, defenders, playmakers. It’s a grab-bag of talented guys who we have no idea if they fit together.

Maybe this one should have gotten more of the “Incomplete” moniker. But it’s more confusing than it is incomplete.

All of that said, Scottie Barnes is worth the max. He’s an All-Star level guy and the franchise building block. Immanuel Quickley’s deal might seem like some massive overpay, but he’s the 16th highest-paid point guard in the NBA this season. Deal doesn’t look so bad now, right?

They haven’t traded Bruce Brown yet, so that will probably linger into the season and maybe to the trade deadline. The Sasha Vezenkov situation is still playing out. It’s unclear how there will be minutes for so many wings, or which players will miss out.

None of these are necessarily bad things. They are just things that need sorted out that don’t have clear answers. Thus, the confusion about where this team is and where they are headed.

Washington Wizards: :neutral_face: Incomplete 

The Wizards are on a path. They’re still working on the teardown process. Rather than simply letting players walk for nothing, Washington has retained players on tradable contracts, while making trades for others. The Jordan Poole acquisition, might have been a misstep, but that was last year.

This summer, it sort of feels like the Wizards aren’t done yet. Kyle Kuzma and Poole are both still around. Poole is probably going to stick for a while longer, but Kuzma could be on the move at any moment.

The same is true of Malcolm Brogdon, who was acquired this summer for Deni Avdija and draft picks. Heck, Richaun Holmes was extended on a deal that is specifically designed for him to get traded.

The Wizards did well at the draft with Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George. Saddiq Bey was a nice flyer on a good contract. But those guys won’t pay dividends this year, beyond development for the rookies and ACL rehab for Bey.

So, we’re just sort of waiting for the other shoe to drop. And that might carry on for a bit. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s just sort of incomplete.

Keith SmithJuly 12, 2024

Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks signed a Veteran Extension to much hullaballoo. Brunson signed a four-year, $156.5 million extension. That was the maximum that Brunson was allowed to sign for at this moment.

It’s that last part that is the key: “at this moment”.

As has been reported, Brunson could have signed for more money had he waited and re-signed with the Knicks as a free agent a year from now. By now, you’ve probably read that Brunson gave up $113 million by extending with New York now.

But did Brunson really leave $113 million on the table?

Yes…well kind of…but not really.

Let’s break it down!

The Veteran Extension

Here’s what Jalen Brunson did sign for:

  • 2025-26: $34,944,001
  • 2026-27: $37,739,521
  • 2027-28: $40,535,041
  • 2028-29: $43,330,561 (Player Option)
  • Total: four years, $156,549,124

In Brunson’s case, he signed under the Veteran Extension rules. This allows for him to extend for 140% of his previous salary. To sign a four-year extension, Brunson declined his 2025-26 player option, so this extension is based off his current salary for 2024-25 of $24,960,001.

From there, Brunson can add four new years of salary with 8% raises off the first year. That’s how we get to figures above.

For now, we can assume that Brunson will opt out of his contract to become a free agent in 2028. That would allow him to sign for the 35% of the cap maximum, because he’ll have 10 Years of Service following the 2027-28 season. But more to come on that later!

Re-signing with New York in 2025

Here’s what Jalen Brunson could have signed for next summer:

  • 2025-26: $46,394,000
  • 2026-27: $50,105,628
  • 2027-28: $53,817,156
  • 2028-29: $57,528,684
  • 2029-30: $61,240,212
  • Total: five years, $269,085,780
  • This contract reflects the 30% of the cap max, with 8% raises for Brunson. Had he played out this upcoming season, opted out of his contract, this is the maximum amount he could have signed for in July of 2025.

Breaking down the differences

This is where things get interesting!

If you compare what Brunson did actually sign for vs what he could have signed for, you get a difference of roughly $112.5 million. So, that’s where that “Brunson gave up $113 million” line-of-thinking came from.

But it’s not really that simple.

If you’ve ever read one of our “Next Contract” pieces here on Spotrac, you know we try to present things in a lens of what a player could get by extending vs re-signing vs leaving for another team. In this case, we’re going to do it, but within the lens of Brunson extending vs re-signing with the Knicks.

We’re not going to pretend that it’s inaccurate to say Brunson left nearly $113 million on the table. Instead, we’ll say that’s a little misleading. Because the chances of Brunson ever getting to that $113 million number are pretty low.

Instead, let’s first look at a four-year vs four-year comparison:

  • Extending: four years, $156,549,124
  • Re-signing: four years, $207,845,568
  • Difference: $51,296,444

Already, we’ve cut the amount Brunson gave up by over half. This is much like why it’s not always a fair comparison to look at what a player can re-sign for with their own team vs what they can get by leaving for a new team. Only their own team can give them a fifth year. In this case, Brunson could only get a fifth year by delaying and re-signing next summer.

Now, let’s go a step further!

In Brunson’s new deal, he has a player option for Year 4 in 2028-29. It’s already been suggested that part of his motivation by extending vs re-signing was to get back into free agency in 2028. So, we’re going to assume he’ll opt out.

That means, the real comparison point here is Extension Years 1-3 vs Re-signing Years 1-3.

  • Extending: three years, $113,218,563
  • Re-signing: three years, $150,316,884
  • Difference: $37,098,321

Now, we’re down to about 33% of the original $113 million that Brunson actually gave up.

Let’s pause for a moment here…

Giving up over $37 million is still a lot of money to leave on the table. For reference, during 2024 NBA free agency to date, only 21 of over 90 players got more than $37 million in total in their new contracts.

So, even as we try to pushback on reported $113 million sacrifice that Brunson made, we’re still going to recognize that the Knicks star did give up a large sum of money.

What does this mean for the Knicks?

For New York, this is big, but let’s not get too crazy here either.

For one, the Knicks now have their All-Star, All-NBA, MVP-candidate leader locked up on a below-max deal. No matter how you spin it, that’s a pretty big win.

But here’s what the Knicks save over the next three seasons after this upcoming one (Remember, we’re assuming Brunson opts out in 2028) by Brunson extending vs re-signing:

  • 2025-26: $11,450,099
  • 2026-27: $12,366,107
  • 2027-28: $13,282,115

Those per-year amounts will certainly help the Knicks, but they aren’t necessarily life-changing for New York.

Here’s how much the Knicks have on the books for each of those three seasons and for how many players:

  • 2025-26: $186,683,839 for 10 players (including Julius Randle, who has a player option for 2025-26)
  • 2026-27: $129,935,530 for seven players
  • 2027-28: $126,983,155 for five players

In each of the first two years, the Knicks are well above the cap. In 2026, they’ll potentially be facing free agency for Mikal Bridges, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson, assuming all three are still on the roster.

What giving up $11.5 million and $12.4 million in 2025 and 2026 does do is gives the Knicks some wiggle room under the now infamous tax aprons. That’s some welcomed flexibility, but won’t necessarily be the difference in making a huge addition. The reason for this is that making a big trade would likely still result in becoming hard-capped at either the first or second apron. This is basically the same dance New York did this summer with the Mikal Bridges trade.

But if we go out to the summer of 2027, this is where things could get really fun for the Knicks.

By that summer, New York could be down to Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Pacome Dadiet and Tyler Kolek on the roster. And that would be the final year of Brunson’s contract before he can opt out in the summer of 2028. Let’s add Mikal Bridges on a salary of $45 million for that season too, since the Knicks didn’t trade for him to watch him walk.

If New York kept the rest mostly as-is for the next couple of seasons, in the summer of 2027, they could have around $40 million in cap space. That’s a nice chunk of spending power, but that’s well shy of the projected first-year max salary of $65.5 million for that season.

Now, if the Knicks let Mikal Bridges walk (they likely won’t, but let’s live in Fantasyland for a moment!), they could have as much as $85 million in cap space that summer. That would be enough to get a max free agent and have some leftover money to spend. That’s starting to look a lot like the offseason the Philadelphia 76ers just had.

In summary: Jalen Brunson took less, which helps the Knicks create wiggle room to do their work. But this isn’t likely to result in a major addition in the next two seasons that New York couldn’t have made anyway. Three years from now, we could be in an entirely different place.

How does Jalen Brunson make back the money he gave up?

In short: he can’t.

Even on the most-accurate comparison of Extension Years 1-3 vs Re-signing Years 1-3, Brunson gave up over $37 million. He’s never getting that back.

What did happen by going this route is that Brunson will get into the free agent market a year earlier than he could have by re-signing for a full five-year deal. In this scenario, Brunson opts out in 2028. At that point, he’ll have 10 Years of Service and he’ll be eligible for a full 35% of the cap maximum salary. That contract will start with Brunson’s Age-32 season. Let’s say the Knicks do want to give him the full five-year max, that projects to look like this:

  • 2028-29: $72,042,250
  • 2029-30: $77,805,630
  • 2030-31: $83,569,010
  • 2031-32: $89,332,390
  • 2032-33: $95,095,770
  • Total: five years, $417,845,050

Whew, boy!

Let that sink in for a moment…

Yeah, that’s what a max contract will look like in just four years. Mind-blowing, right?

Will the Knicks want to give Brunson a five-year maximum contract when he’s on the other side of 30 years old? Historically, small guards haven’t aged that well in the NBA, but that’s been changing over the years. Maybe Brunson will hold up just fine and will cash in. But even if it’s not the full max, it’s safe to say that Brunson will get paid, and paid handsomely when he hits 10 Years of Service in 2028.

But here’s the thing (there’s always a thing!):

Brunson could have gotten this exact same deal by signing only a four-year deal in free agency next summer. Nothing says he would have had to sign a full five-year deal. He could have signed for four years, with a player option on the last year, and gotten back on the market in 2028.

Why couldn’t the Knicks and Brunson sign one of those Super Max Extensions?

The Designated Veteran Extension, or so-called Super Max Extension, is only available to players who were drafted by their current team or acquired while still on their Rookie Scale deal. Because Brunson changed teams as a free agent, he is not eligible for a Super Max Extension.

This is bad for all other NBA players, right? Owners will want everyone to take discounts?

Eh…maybe, but probably not. This situation is fairly unique. Most players aren’t going to look at this situation and see themselves in the same place as Brunson. Most front offices and owners will understand that, and will get that their teams are not in the same place either.As far as those screaming from the rooftops that “The players lost in this new CBA! The owners won!”, that’s not really an accurate assessment at all. At the end of the day, the players still get their 51% of Basketball Related Income (BRI). So, even if some contracts come in a little lower, the players are all still getting their fair share of the money. And, let’s not forget that a bunch of players have also signed maximum extensions worth hundreds upon hundreds of millions this summer.

Also, without boring everyone to tears, the BRI calculation was updated to include even more revenue streams. And the players have additional investment outlets available to them under the new CBA, as well.

Simply put: Half of a watermelon is better than a whole grape. NBA BRI is now one giant watermelon. NBA players and NBA teams are making more money than ever, even if those distribution channels may be evolving.

Summary

Jalen Brunson should be lauded for leaving a lot of money on the table. No, it wasn’t really $113 million. Nor was it even really $51 million. But $37 million is still a lot of money.

Brunson is clearly the toast of the town in New York. He’s arguably as big of a sports star as the city has. In a lot of ways, he’s everything Knicks fans want in a star: he’s tough, he plays with heart, he’s an underdog due to his size, and, mostly importantly, he loves New York and playing for the Knicks.

Brunson also clearly values playing with guys he enjoys being around. We’ve all made the jokes about the Villanova Knicks, but there is truth there. You can’t put a price on what it’s worth to play with your friends, even if that price is apparently something like $37 million.

Lastly, the Knicks win here. Not by an overwhelming margin, but things are starting to get really tight on their cap sheet. As we’ve seen in several situations this summer, including New York’s own, any extra wiggle room can make a major difference.

In the end, things got overblown as to how much Brunson really gave up, and how he’ll recoup it eventually. Instead, let’s just focus on the perfect marriage of player, team, time and place that resulted in Brunson making a sacrifice and the Knicks getting a great deal. That’s more than enough without turning this into a fairytale about a conquering hero sacrificing it all to save the kingdom.

 

Keith SmithJuly 05, 2024

A running list of notable 2024 NBA Free Agents agreements and signings throughout the free agency period, ordered by agreement date.

Franz Wagner – Orlando Magic

Status:

Agreed on July 5, 2024 – Designated rookie extension

Terms:

5 year, $224.23 million (AAV: $44.8 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2025-26: $38,661,750

2026-27: $41,754,690

2027-28: $44,847,630

2028-29: $47,940,570

2029-30: $51,033,510

Deal contains Designated Rookie language for 30% of the 2025-26 cap

Taurean Prince – Milwaukee Bucks

Status:

Agreed on July 3, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 year, $2.99 million (AAV: $2.99 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $2,988,550

Thoughts:

The Bucks only have minimum contracts to offer, but this looks like a steal for Milwuakee. They needed to add some form of frontcourt depth, as it was a bunch of unproven and/or undersized options behind Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis. Taurean Prince will give the Bucks a combo forward who can score and hold his own defensively. As the Bucks have an older roster, they’ll likely be looking to spot players rest days when they can. Prince gives Doc Rivers a veteran he can count on when others are out.

PJ Dozier – Minnesota Timberwolves

Status:

Agreed on July 3, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 year, $2.6 million (AAV: $2.6 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $2,613,120

Thoughts:

The Timberwolves are looking to fill out their bench with minimum signings. Front office leader Tim Connelly has a comfort level with P.J. Dozier, as he’s signed him to a few different contracts over the years. Dozier had a solid year playing in Serbia last season. He should give the Wolves another perimeter player for their bench.

Alec Burks – Miami Heat

Status:

Agreed on July 3, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 year, $3.3 million (AAV: $3.3 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $3,303,771

Thoughts:

Burks will add some nice backcourt depth for the Heat on a veteran minimum deal. He showed in the playoffs that he’s still got some scoring punch left. Miami’s bench is in transition at the moment. Burks should work with Josh Richardson, who picked up his option, to give Erik Spoelstra another ballhandler off the bench.

Thomas Bryant – Miami Heat

Status:

Agreed on July 3, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 year, $2.8 million (AAV: $2.8 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $2,800,834

Thoughts:

Bryant never really made much of an impact for Miami last season. Mostly, he’ll be good competition for rookie Kel’el Ware for frontcourt minutes behind Bam Adebayo. That’s fine for a veteran minimum salary.

Joe Ingles – Minnesota Timberwolves

Status:

Agreed on July 3, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 year, $3.3 million (AAV: $3.3 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $3,303,771

Thoughts:

Joe Ingles really helped a young Orlando Magic grow up last season. He was also pretty solid on-court too. Ingles is a good passer and a really nice connective player. He’ll take on the role Kyle Anderson had for the Timberwolves last season, but with far better shooting.

Damion Lee – Phoenix Suns

Status:

Agreed on July 3, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 year, $2.8 million (AAV: $2.8 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $2,800,834

Thoughts:

The hope was that Damion Lee would give the Suns a sniper off the bench last season. A knee injury cost him all of last year. So, the Suns and Lee are running it back for another try for the minimum, or possibly slightly more with his Non-Bird rights.

LeBron James – Los Angeles Lakers

Status:

Agreed on July 3, 2024 – Maximum free agent

Terms:

2 year, $103.97 million (AAV: $51.99 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $49,987,718

2025-26: $53,986,735

Thoughts:

The only real question for LeBron James was if he would take his max?Or was he going to give the Lakers a discount to make other moves. After a handful of James’ reported preferred targets went elsewhere, he went for the max. There’s still a possibility James takes a little less to help the Lakers out, but it won’t be a meaningful amount. Now, we get to see how a Lakers team, one that has made very few changes to their roster to date (veterans Spencer Dinwiddie and Taurean Prince out, rookies Dalton Knecht and Bronny James in), can upgrade with limited resources to do so.

Kyle Anderson – Golden State Warriors

Status:

Agreed on July 2, 2024 – Free agent via Sign-and-Trade with Minnesota

Terms:

3 year, $27 million (AAV: $9 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $8,571,429

2025-26: $9,000,000

2026-27: $9,428,571

Thoughts:

Golden State is continuing to rebuild their roster as a non-tax team for the first time in years. After adding De’Anthony Melton for backcourt depth, the Warriors are adding Kyle Anderson to the frontcourt. He’s an ideal for the Warriors, because he can do a little of everything. Anderson’s pass-and-move style of play is a great fit for Golden State’s movement-based offense. For barely more than the Room Exception, this is a really good addition for the retooling Warriors.

Jonathan Isaac – Orlando Magic

Status:

Agreed on July 2, 2024 – Renegotiation-and-extend

Terms:

5 year, $84 million (AAV: $16.8 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: TBD

2025-26: TBD

2026-27: TBD

2027-28: TBD

2028-29: TBD

 

Thoughts:

Orlando made good use of their remaining cap space to get Jonathan Isaac signed long-term. The Magic will up Isaac’s salary for this coming season. In return, Isaac will take less per season on the four new years he’s adding to his contract. A renegotiation-and-extension deal is the only form of extreme front-loaded contract in the NBA. It’s smart cap management to use the space while you have it, to keep things in line later, when the rest of the roster will start getting more expensive.

Xavier Tillman – Boston Celtics

Status:

Agreed on July 2, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 year, $4.78 million (AAV: $2.4 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $2,237,692

2025-26: $2,546,675

Thoughts:

Boston is now running it back with their entire big man rotation from last season. Xavier Tillman Sr. joins Luke Kornet and Neemias Queta as staying with the champs. Tillman will be relied upon heavily this upcoming season. Kristaps Porzingis is out until sometime around the holidays, and Boston will aggressively manage Al Horford this season. Getting Tillman back on the minimum is big for the Celtics. Now, if he can keep refining that three-point shot…

Monte Morris – Phoenix Suns

Status:

Agreed on July 2, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 year, $2.8 million (AAV: $2.8 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $2,800,834

Thoughts:

Phoenix had to get a real point guard on the roster. Monte Morris more than fills that need. He won’t start when everyone is healthy, but given that Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are a good bet to miss some time, Morris will probably start some games. On the other nights, the veteran ballhandler will play a big role off the bench.

Mo Wagner – Orlando Magic

Status:

Agreed on July 2, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 year, $22 million (AAV: $22 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $10,576,923

2025-26: $11,423,077

Thoughts:

Orlando is running it back in the frontcourt. This deal probably looks similar to Wagner’s last one, where the second year will be a team option or carry some non-guaranteed money. The main thing is that Orlando’s best backup big man is still in the fold. With the Magic reportedly listening to offers for Wendell Carter Jr., it was really important to bring back Wagner, along with Goga Bitadze.

James Wiseman – Indiana Pacers

Status:

Agreed on July 2, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 year

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: TBD

2025-26: TBD

Thoughts:

Perfect flyer for the Pacers. Wiseman will be asked to rebound, run the floor and finish around the rim. Occasionally, Indiana might want him to hit a pick-and-pop jumper. The Pacers did a great job getting Jalen Smith’s career on track. With Myles Turner and Isaiah Jackson in place, Wiseman can work on his game without having to play big minutes. This is a great spot for him to figure things out. There’s a lot of talent there and he’s young. Never bet against the late-blooming big man.

Donovan Mitchell – Cleveland Cavaliers

Status:

Agreed on July 2, 2024 – Maximum veteran extension

Terms:

3 year, $150.3 million (AAV: $50.1 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2025-26: $46,394,100

2026-27: $50,105,628

2027-28: $53,817,156 (Player Option)

Thoughts:

Cleveland and Donovan Mitchell get some clarity for at least a few seasons. Because he was traded after his rookie scale deal ended, Mitchell wasn’t able to sign a supermax extension with the Cavs. This is a nice middle ground. Cleveland keeps him around for a while longer, and Mitchell has the opportunity to get back on the free agent market when he’ll be eligible for the 10 Years of Service, 35% of the cap max. That’s a win-win compromise for both Mitchell and the Cavaliers.

Mo Bamba – LA Clippers

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 year, $2.6 million (AAV: $2.6 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $2,613,120

Thoughts:

This is fine. One year for the minimum isn’t going to hurt anyone. The Clippers frontcourt rotation seems to be very much in flux behind Ivica Zubac. Bamba is a different look from Mason Plumlee, as he can step out and shoot it, but he hasn’t been as productive with his minutes as Plumlee. But for the minimum, it’s a worthy flyer, even if LA will probably continue to work on their center depth.

Kris Dunn – LA Clippers

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

TBD

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: TBD

Thoughts:

We’re still waiting on the terms for Kris Dunn’s deal with the Clippers, and also the path for him to get to LA. It’s been reported that this may be a sign-and-trade. Strictly keeping it on the court, this is a terrific addition for LA. Dunn can back up James Harden at point guard, plus play alongside Harden in lineups too. With Russell Westbrook reportedly headed out, the Clippers did well to replace him with Dunn.

Gary Harris – Orlando Magic

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 year, $14 million (AAV $7 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $6,730,769

2025-26: $7,269,231

Thoughts:

Really good value for the Magic here. Gary Harris was a starter for Orlando for most of last season, and he was the team’s most consistent shooter. He’ll likely back up Kentavious Caldwell-Pope now, but this gives the Magic four good guards with Harris, Caldwell-Pope, Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony. And Orlando has Anthony Black in the development pipeline as well. Don’t be surprised if the second season of this deal involves some form of team control, such as a team option or non-guaranteed season.

Goga Bitadze – Orlando Magic

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

3 year, $25 million (AAV $8.3 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $7,716,049

2025-26: $8,333,333

2026-27: $8,950,617

Thoughts:

Orlando did well to keep Goga Bitadze in the fold. He was excellent as a spot starter when Wendell Carter Jr. had to miss time. This coming season, Bitadze may be in for a bigger role as a regular backup. Getting him for roughly the Room Exception is a win for both Bitadze and the Magic.

Jayson Tatum – Boston Celtics

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Designated Veteran extension

Terms:

5 year, $314 million (AAV $62.8 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2025-26: $54,126,450

2026-27: $58,456,566

2027-28: $62,786,682

2028-29: $67,116,798

2029-30: $71,446,914 (Player Option)

Thoughts:

As expected, Jayson Tatum got the full supermax extension from the Celtics. No surprises here. Tatum earned this deal by becoming one of the best players in the NBA.

Klay Thompson – Dallas Mavericks

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent via Sign-and-Trade with Golden State

Terms:

3 year, $50 million (AAV $16.7 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $15,873,016

2025-26: $16,666,667

2026-27: $17,460,317

Thoughts:

(Note: When we get the full sign-and-trade details, we’ll do a full trade recap for this deal.)

It’s hard to believe Klay Thompson is leaving the Warriors. But landing with the Mavericks is a really solid outcome. Thompson will likely replace Derrick Jones Jr. in the starting lineup. Thompson isn’t the defender he once was, but he’s still a really good shooter. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving coming off screens will love having Thompson spacing the floor for them. As long as folks have tempered expectations that this isn’t All-Star-level Klay Thompson, but instead wily veteran shooter Klay Thompson, this addition will be a hit.

De’Anthony Melton – Golden State Warriors

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 year, $12.8 million (AAV $12.8 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $12,822,000

Thoughts:

If De’Anthony Melton didn’t have concerns about his back, he gets a far larger deal than this. As it is, this is a good get for the Warriors. Golden State needed another ballhandler behind Stephen Curry. If healthy, Melton will give Golden State solid depth at both guard spots. Also, non-Bird rights should be enough to re-sign Melton with after this season.

Aaron Holiday – Houston Rockets

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 year, $9.56 million (AAV $4.78 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $4,668,000

2025-26: $4,901,400

Thoughts:

This is a small, but solid value for Aaron Holiday and the Rockets. Holiday gave Houston good minutes at times last season, as Amen Thompson got healthy and adjusted to the NBA game. The second season of this deal is reportedly a team option, which gives the Rockets an easy out if they are going the cap space route next summer.

Delon Wright – Milwaukee Bucks

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Veteran extension

Terms:

1 year, $3.0 million (AAV $3.0 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $3,003,427

Thoughts:

The Bucks had a backup point guard problem for lots of last season. That’s not good, considering Damian Lillard is older and tends to miss games now. Wright gives Milwaukee a solid backup. He’s also got starting experience, if necessary. Good add for the minimum for Milwaukee.

Derrick White – Boston Celtics

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Veteran extension

Terms:

4 year, $125.9 million (AAV $31.5 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $28,100,001

2025-26: $30,348,001

2026-27: $32,596,001

2027:28: $34,844,001

Thoughts:

Monster win for the Boston Celtics. Derrick White could have probably gotten $35-$40 million on the open market. Instead, he’s back in Boston for at least the next three years, as the fourth year is a player option. White said he loves it in Boston and didn’t want to leave the Celtics. Some things, like comfort and winning, are more important than getting every last penny in a deal.

Luke Garza – Minnesota Timberwolves

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 year, $4.5 million (AAV $2.26 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $2,162,606

2025-26: $2,349,578

Thoughts:

Garza is well-liked because he stays ready and is a hard worker. For the minimum, you can’t ask for much more. That’s why he’s headed back to Minnesota. Expect this deal to ultimately include some non-guaranteed money.

Drew Eubanks – Utah Jazz

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 year, $10 million (AAV $5 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $4,878,049

2025-26: $5,121,951

Thoughts:

This is a version of the Jalen Smith deal, where it works if the Jazz are making a playoff push or if they are rebuilding. If it’s the former, Eubanks is nice depth for not much over the minimum. If it’s the latter, Eubanks can play and is a nice trade chip down the line. Also: Walker Kessler has been in a lot of trade rumors. This gives the Jazz cover if they move on from the young center.

Tobias Harris – Detroit Pistons

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 year, $52 million (AAV $26 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $25,365,854

2025-26: $26,634,146

Thoughts:

This one looks a little strange. But when you step back and realize the Pistons have to spend money on someone, it makes more sense. Is Harris going to make Detroit a contender? Nope. Will he help them be a more functional, competitive basketball team? Yes. That’s what this is about. This deal would look a lot better if the second season was a team option, but if it’s at least a partial or non-guaranteed year, that will suffice. But, as it is, this is fine. Neither good, nor bad. Just sort of meh.

Isaiah Hartenstein – Oklahoma City Thunder

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

3 year, $87 million (AAV $29 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $30,526,316

2025-26: $29,000,000

2026-27: $27,473,684

Thoughts:

The Thunder are doing work. This is a big contract, but an important signing for Oklahoma City. They needed to add some additional size and to get more versatile in the frontcourt. Now, the Thunder have the option to go big against teams like Denver and Minnesota. Isaiah Hartenstein has experience starting or coming off the bench. He’s also going to immediately improve the defense and rebounding. Is this an overpay? Perhaps a bit, but the Oklahoma City cap sheet can afford it for a couple more years.

Jalen Smith – Chicago Bulls

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

3 year, $27 million (AAV $9 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $8,571,429

2025-26: $9,000,000

2026-27: $9,428,571

Thoughts:

Outstanding value signing for the Bulls. Smith is only 24 years old, so he fits if Chicago flips towards a rebuild, or if they chase a postseason spot. He was probably a bit above his head with his shooting last year, but not so much so that it was a fluke. For $9 million AAV, this one of the best values of 2024 free agency so far.

Isaiah Joe – Oklahoma City Thunder

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

4 year, $48 million (AAV $12 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $10,714,286

2025-26: $11,571,429

2026-27: $12,428,571

2027-28: $13,285,714

Thoughts:

I could just repeat the Aaron Wiggins analysis here, but won’t. The Thunder plucked Joe off the free agent market when he was waived by the Philadelphia 76ers. The promise Joe flashed with Philadelphia fleshed out in Oklahoma City. He’s an elite shooter. For less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE on an annual basis, the Thunder keep him around. Another step in building a sustainable small-market winner.

Aaron Wiggins – Oklahoma City Thunder

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

5 year, $47 million (AAV $9.4 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $8,103,448

2025-26: $8,751,724

2026-27: $9,400,000

2027-28: $10,048,276

2028-29: $10,696,552

Thoughts:

Aaron Wiggins is a player development success story for the Thunder. And, as they have so many times before, they reap the reward of that success by signing a good player to a team-friendly contract. Wiggins is a terrific depth player on the wing, and he’ll be playing for what is essentially the Room Exception. That’s how you build a sustainable winner in a small market.

Tyrese Maxey – Philadelphia 76ers

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

5 year, $203.58 million (AAV $40.8 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $35,147,000

2025-26: $37,958,760

2026-27: $40,770,520

2027-28: $43,582,280

2028-29: $46,394,040

Thoughts:

As expected, after a year of waiting, Tyrese Maxey got his max deal. There was some thought that to thank Maxey for delaying signing so that they could use cap space, that Philadelphia might have given him a player option. That didn’t happen (and wouldn’t have in a regular extension either), so that’s a win for the Sixers. Philadelphia now has their star trio locked up long-term.

Paul George – Philadelphia 76ers

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

4 year, $212 million (AAV $52.9 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $49,205,800

2025-26: $51,666,090

2026-27: $54,126,380

2027-28: $56,586,670 (Player Option)

Thoughts:

The major free agent domino has fallen. The Sixers got their guy. After lining up for over a year to add a third star around Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, Daryl Morey pulled it off. When healthy, George is a perfect fit with Embiid and Maxey. He’s a big wing to slide right in between the center and the ballhandler. George is very good playing off-ball, which he’ll have to do quite a bit to give Embiid and Maxey reps. The lone question is George’s track record of missing games and his age. Given those same questions exist for Embiid, there’s a chance this could go sideways a bit. However, the upside and fit are too good to pass up, simply because of health concerns. This is a tremendous addition for the 76ers, who vault themselves back into title contention in the Eastern Conference.

Kelly Oubre Jr. –Philadelphia 76ers

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 year, $16.3 million (AAV $8.2 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $7,983,000

2025-26: $8,382,150  (Player Option)

Thoughts:

Kelly Oubre Jr. was the best ROI last summer, after the Sixers had him for the veteran minimum. Oubre cashed in on that productive season. This deal will most likely come out of the Room Exception, as Philadelphia continues to sequence their transactions. Even with the step-up in salary, this is still a great value for the 76ers. Oubre will give them scoring punch, as well as depth for when Paul George misses games.

Derrick Jones Jr. – LA Clippers

Status:

Agreed on July 1, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

3 year, $30 million (AAV $10 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $9,523,810

2025-26: $10,000,000

2026-27: $10,476,190

Thoughts:

The Clippers started re-shaping their roster a bit after they gave up on re-signing Paul George. Jones is a nice start. LA can’t replace George outright, so they have to replace him in the aggregate. Some will come from Terance Mann. Some from Amir Coffey. Now, some will come from Jones. This is a good pivot for a team that is in a bit of transition.

Naji Marshall – Dallas Mavericks

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

3 year, $27 million (AAV $9 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $8,571,429

2025-26: $9,000,000

2026-27: $9,428,571

Thoughts:

Naji Marshall is a great story. He fought his way onto the Pelicans roster and then just kept improving. He’s a 3&D wing with some size, so that’s a great fit for the Mavericks. The only question: Was Marshall’s shooting last year real? If so, this is a homerun signing. If he dips a bit, it’s still a good signing, but more like an RBI double.

Mason Plumlee – Phoenix Suns

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 year, $3.3 million (AAV $3.3 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $3,303,771

Thoughts:

Mason Plumlee has dropped off some from his most productive years, but he’s still a solid backup. The Suns can’t offer free agents anything more than the minimum. That means those minimum lottery tickets have to hit. This one feels like it should. Plumlee will return at least minimum value for Phoenix behind Jusuf Nurkic.

Jonas Valanciunas – Washington Wizards

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

3 year, $30 million (AAV $10 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $9,523,810

2025-26: $10,000,000

2026-27: $10,476,190

Thoughts:

This one came a little out of leftfield, but it makes sense when you step back a little. Jonas Valanciunas will provide some protection and cover for Alex Sarr, as he figures out the NBA game. In addition, Valanciunas will be very tradable on this deal down the line. Even if it seems odd for a rebuilding team to go with a veteran center, this is a pretty good value all around.

Chris Paul – San Antonio Spurs

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 year, $11+ million (AAV $11 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $11,000,000

Thoughts:

The Spurs have been looking for a veteran point guard and they got the most veteran one they could in Chris Paul. Paul will mentor San Antonio’s young guards, while also making the game easier for Victor Wembanyam. Also, who isn’t going to enjoy Paul playing for Gregg Popovich after all these years of going head-to-head.

Eric Gordon – Philadelphia 76ers

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 year, $3.3 million (AAV $3.3 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $3,303,771

Thoughts:

If Philadelphia is signing a star to a max deal (Paul George perhaps?), they’ll need to fill out some depth on the cheap. Gordon will likely outplay this deal by a decent margin. He’s still an elite shooter and good off-the-dribble scorer. This is a terrific add for the Sixers.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Orlando Magic

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

3 years, $66 million (AAV $22 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $20,952,381

2025-26: $22,000,000

2026-27: $23,047,619

Thoughts:

This is a great pickup for the Magic. They’ll have an elite defensive backcourt with Caldwell-Pope joining Jalen Suggs. Caldwell-Pope will also help with spacing, as well. And Orlando still has around $30 million in cap space to spend. The Magic aren’t done yet.

Andre Drummond – Philadelphia 76ers

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 years, $10+ million (AAV $5 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $4,878,049

2025-26: $5,121,951

Thoughts:

The 76ers had to use part of their cap flexibility this summer to add a reliable backup for Joel Embiid. It’s a luxury when Embiid is healthy, but a must when he’s not. The team has familiarity with Andre Drummond and he’s become an extremely productive backup. This is a homerun signing for not much over a minimum contract per year.

Luke Kornet – Boston Celtics

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 years, $2.8 million (AAV $2.8 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $2,800,834

Thoughts:

Luke Kornet was the guy Joe Mazzulla called upon most often when one of Kristaps Porzingis or Al Horford was out. Kornet almost always delivered with solid minutes. Given Porzingis will miss the start of next season, and the team will actively manage Horford’s minutes, Kornet will play a big role. The Celtics comfort level with him makes this a worthwhile re-signing.

Kevin Love – Miami Heat

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 years, $8+ million (AAV $4 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $3,846,154

2025-26: $4,153,846

Thoughts:

The Heat were always going to bring back Kevin Love. That this deal appears to be fully guaranteed with no options is a bit surprising. It’s not big enough that it will really matter, but Love getting two fully guaranteed years at his age wasn’t expected. But it’s fine for a guy who can give Miami solid regular season minutes.

James Harden – LA Clippers

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 years, $70 million (AAV $35 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $33,653,846

2025-26: $36,346,154

Thoughts:

James Harden isn’t an MVP-level player anymore. He may not even be an All-Star again. But Harden is still good. The Clippers invested a decent amount into acquiring him. This deal is fine, especially given that the second year is reportedly an option for Harden, who is probably going year-to-year at this point.

Max Christie – Los Angeles Lakers

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

4 years, $32 million (AAV $15 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $7,142,857

2025-26: $7,714,286

2026-27: $8,285,714

2027-28: $8,857,143

Thoughts:

Max Christie needs a consistent role to earn this contract. The good news? He may have one next year. Christie is a good athlete, solid defender and an improving shooter. If he gets regular minutes, Christie will deliver very good value on this contract.

Obi Toppin – Indiana Pacers

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

4 years, $60 million (AAV $15 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $13,392,857

2025-26: $14,464,286

2026-27: $15,535,714

2027-28: $16,607,143

Thoughts:

This is a good deal for both Toppin and the Pacers. It’s essentially the MLE, and Toppin will outproduce the MLE amount, even when he plays primarily as a backup to Pascal Siakam. Something to keep an eye on: Indiana has a lot of money invested in Siakam and Toppin. Could that make Jarace Walker gettable via trade?


Alex Len – Sacramento Kings

Status:

Agreed on June 30, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 years, $3.31  million (AAV $3.31 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $3,313,453

Thoughts:

Each of the last three years, Len has started out of the Kings rotation, but finished the year as Domantas Sabonis’ primary backup. There is a comfort level there and Sacramento trusts him to stay ready when his number is called. For the veteran minimum, you can’t ask for much more.

Patrick Williams – Chicago Bulls

Status:

Agreed on June 29, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

5 years, $90 million (AAV $18 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $15,517,241

2025-26: $16,758,621

2026-27: $18,000,000

2027-28: $19,241,379

2028-29: $20,482,759

Thoughts:

Williams has struggled to stay healthy in his career. When he has, he’s shown what we’ll call 3&D-plus ability. He can do a little bit off the dribble and he’s solid filling the lane on a fastbreak. Mostly, this deal is going to look a lot like the Non-Taxpayer MLE when it finishes. For a young guy who can defend and shoot, this is a pretty solid value for the Bulls, and it’s good guaranteed money for Williams.

 

Bol Bol – Phoenix Suns

Status:

Agreed on June 29, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 years, $2.9 million (AAV $2.9 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $2,919,013

Thoughts:

Phoenix gave Bol a slight bump over the minimum salary to stick around. This is an approach the Suns have used in the past, as a way to add a bit more tradable salary. Bol remains an enigma. He looks like a rotation big one game and like a raw project the next. For Phoenix, who just needs depth anyway they can get it, this is a fine deal.

DeAndre Jordan – Denver Nuggets

Status:

Agreed on June 29, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

1 years, $3.3 million (AAV $3.3 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $3,313,453

Thoughts:

Jordan gets a minimum deal to return as the third or fourth big for the Nuggets. Denver wasn’t likely to give this roster spot to a project, given they are a title contender. So, this is fine. The Nuggets can always move Jordan if they need to create a roster spot later.

Richaun Holmes – Washington Wizards

Status:

Agreed on June 29, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

2 years, $25.9 million (AAV $11.6 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $12,634,146

2025-26: $13,265,854 ($250,000 guaranteed)

Thoughts:

This is a weird one. Holmes hasn’t shown this kind of value in recent years. He’s struggled to get consistent minutes and hasn’t done much when he has. Washington does need to fill center minutes, though. Also, and this may be the real purpose of this contract, the Wizards gave Holmes a deal that is extremely tradable. Don’t be surprised if that happens sooner, rather later.

Royce O’Neale – Phoenix Suns

Status:

Agreed on June 29, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

4 years, $44 million (AAV $11 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $9,821,429

2025-26: $10,607,143

2026-27: $11,392,857

2027-28: $12,178,571

Thoughts:

This is a fair value deal for O’Neale. As a second-apron team, the Suns can’t let talent walk out the door, because they have no way to replace them. O’Neale is a good 3&D wing/forward for Phoenix. Just as importantly: the Suns now have a bit of salary to trade in-season, should the need arise.

Immanuel Quickley – Toronto Raptors

Status:

Agreed on June 28, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

5 years, $175 million (AAV $35 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $30,172,414

2025-26: $32,586,207

2026-27: $35,000,000

2027-28: $37,413,793

2028-29: 39,827,586

Thoughts:

Quickley checking in at $35 million AAV is exceedingly fair. There seems to be this stigma with some that he’s still a backup-level point guard. He’s not. Quickley is a good starter. He showed that in his half-season in Toronto. This is a good deal for the Raptors and they now have Quickley and Scottie Barnes both locked in as their long-term building blocks.

 

Nicolas Claxton – Brooklyn Nets

Status:

Agreed on June 26, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

4 years, $100  million (AAV $25 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $22,321,429

2025-26: $24,107,143

2026-27: $25,892,857

2027-28: $27,678,571

Thoughts:

Some seem to think $25 million AAV is too much for Claxton. That’s probably not the case. He’s a top-tier defensive center. He can switch and hold his own, and he’s a terrific rim protector. Claxton is a limited offensive player, but he’s been improving as a screener and passer. At no point will this contract turn sour or become untradeable for Brooklyn.

OG Anunoby – New York Knicks

Status:

Agreed on June 26, 2024 – Free agent

Terms:

5 years, $212.5  million (AAV $42.5 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $36,637,931

2025-26: $39,568,966

2026-27: $42,500,000

2027-28: $45,431,034

2028-29: $48,362,069

Thoughts: 

The Knicks are all-in on this group. They said they were confident in keeping Anunoby after surrendering a lot of talent to get him ahead of last season’s trade deadline. They certainly had to pay up to do so, but it’s worth it. Anunoby will pair with the newly-acquired Mikal Bridges to give the Knicks a dynamite defensive wing duo.

Bam Adebayo – Miami Heat

Status:

Agreed on June 26, 2024 – Maximum veteran extension

Terms:

3 years, $165.83  million (AAV $55.3 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2026-27: $51,183,000

2027-28: $55,277,640

2028-29: $59,372,280

Thoughts: 

Adebayo could have gotten more money from the Heat. A lot more money, actually. If Adebayo had waited a year, he could have added four years and a total of $229.3 million. If Adebayo had made All-NBA or won Defensive Player of the Year (neither are a stretch for him) in either 2024-25 or 2025-26, he could have signed a five-year supermax extension for $346.3 million. This deal is a massive win for the Heat. Adebayo will get back on the market in his early-30s, so he’ll get a fourth contract too. That’s nice, but still a bit strange that he passed up on a realistic chance at becoming supermax eligible in either of the next two seasons.

Scottie Barnes – Toronto Raptors

Status:

Agreed on June 24, 2024 – Rookie Scale extension

Terms:

5 years, $224.90  million (AAV $44.98 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2025-26: $38,775,000

2026-27: $41,877,000

2027-28: $44,979,000

2028-29: $48,081,000

2029-30: $51,183,000

Deal contains Designated Rookie language for 30% of the 2025-26 cap

Thoughts: 

Barnes got exactly what we predicted. He’s the face of the franchise for the Raptors now. This contract and commitment reflects that.

 

Malik Monk – Sacramento Kings

Status:

Agreed on June 20, 2024 – Free Agent

Terms:

4 years, $77.9 million (AAV $19.5 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $17,405,203

2025-26: $18,797,619

2026-27: $20,190,035

2027-28: $21,582,451 (Player Option)

Thoughts: 

This is a steal for the Kings. Monk could have gotten a deal between $20 and $25 million AAV in free agency. But you can’t put a price on comfort and happiness, which Monk has found in Sacramento.

Pascal Siakam – Indiana Pacers

Status: 

Agreed on June 19, 2024 – Free Agent

Terms: 

4 years, $189.5 million (AAV $47.4 million)

Estimated Salaries: 

2024-25: $42,300,000

2025-26: $45,684,000

2026-27: $49,068,000

2027-28: $52,452,000

Thoughts: 

Siakam was always destined to re-sign with the Pacers. They gave up too much to get him to let him leave after a half-season run. Indiana did well to keep this to a four-year max deal instead of the full five years they could have offered. This contract should take Siakam through the rest of his prime.

Keith SmithJuly 05, 2024

Sasha Vezenkov is somewhat of an afterthought in terms of the NBA. He signed with the Sacramento Kings to some fanfare during the 2023 offseason. After an injury-plagued and non-descript rookie season, Vezenkov was traded to the Toronto Raptors. This trade was mostly designed to clear Sacramento some flexibility under the tax aprons for future moves.

Seems like a pretty standard NBA move, right?

Not so fast, my friend!

This situation is far murkier and more complex than a simple salary-shedding trade in the NBA between a playoff contender and a rebuilding team. Most of it revolves around Vezenkov and his own desires being in conflict with the contract he signed with Sacramento a year ago.

A bit of background first, to better understand the complete situation.

Vezenkov was a two-time early entrant into the NBA Draft in both 2015 and 2016. The 6-foot-8 forward withdrew both times. In 2017, when Vezenkov was auto-eligible, he was drafted by the Brooklyn Nets with the 27th pick in the second round (57th overall).

In 2021, Vezenkov’s draft rights were traded by the Nets to the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers then traded Vezenkov’s draft rights to the Sacramento Kings in 2022.

During this time, Vezenkov established himself as one of the best players in Europe. The dual-national of Bulgaria and Cyprus played for Barcelona in 2017-18, before moving to Olympiacos in Greece in 2018-19. Vezenkov blossomed while playing for Olympiacos.

While back in Greece, where he had previously won Greek League MVP in 2015 with Aris, Vezenkov won back-to-back MVPs for Olympiacos in 2022 and 2023. He was also named EuroLeague MVP in 2023, after leading Olympiacos to the top of the EuroLeague table and runners-up in the EuroLeague playoffs.

Following that season, Vezenkov decided to head to the NBA. He signed a three-year deal with the Kings worth $19.9 million. His per-year salaries on that deal are:

  • 2023-24: $6,341,464 (season completed)
  • 2024-25: $6,658,536 (current season)
  • 2025-26: $6,975,609 (team option)
  • Total: three years, $19,975,609

Vezenkov’s rookie season with Sacramento wasn’t what either side hoped for. Just when it seemed like the scoring forward was finding his rhythm in the NBA, Vezenkov suffered a sprained right ankle. He returned two weeks later and re-injured the same ankle. Vezenkov then returned to play out the final few weeks of the season for the Kings.

Following the season, rumors came up that Vezenkov was disenchanted with his role with the Kings and with the NBA overall. Reports were that he would seek a return to Europe, with a return to Olympiacos high on his list. Several reports went as far as to suggest that Vezenkov had already told the Kings that he wouldn’t be returning to Sacramento for next season.

That’s all well and good, minus the fact that Vezenkov is under contract for the 2024-25 season for a guaranteed $6.6 million. In order for him to leave the Kings, he’d need a buyout or trade from Sacramento. A trade from Sacramento is what he got. The Kings traded Vezenkov and Davion Mitchell to the Raptors for Jalen McDaniels ahead of the 2024 NBA Draft.

Vezenkov’s desire to leave the NBA is now Toronto’s problem.

Immediately upon the trade being completed, Toronto media reported that the Raptors were looking forward to having Vezenkov on the roster. There were also reports that Toronto had no intentions of simply waiving Vezenkov.

Still, rumors of Vezenkov wanting to leave the NBA won’t go away. So much so, that reporting hit in the wee hours of July 5 in North America, that Vezenkov had already agreed to terms with Olympiacos on a long-term contract starting with the 2024-25 season.

Again: not so fast, my friend!

There isn’t a feasible way for Vezenkov to just leave Toronto to sign with Olympiacos. He’s not a free agent, nor do the Raptors currently seem inclined to make him one.

So, where does this situation stand? Let’s answer some of the most commonly asked questions.

Can Sasha Vezenkov just leave the Toronto Raptors? Why does he have to stay?

The simple answer is: No, he can’t just leave. Vezenkov is under contract with Toronto for $6.6 million for the 2024-25 season. He has to honor those terms.

Why does he have to honor that NBA contract? Olympiacos isn’t an NBA team.

In professional basketball, clubs who fall under the jurisdiction of FIBA have a thing called a “Letter of Clearance”. This letter is essentially what frees a player up to sign with a new team. The wording reads:

“By applying for this letter of clearance and affixing my signature below, I hereby attest that I have fulfilled all contractual obligations stipulated in any and all contracts between myself and any team, club or national federation. I have read and fully understand all material within this application and have answered all questions truthfully and honestly.”

The second part of the first sentence is the most important line. In order to receive this Letter of Clearance to sign with Olympiacos, Vezenkov will have to prove he has fulfilled his contract with the Toronto Raptors. Simply walking away doesn’t fulfill that obligation.

Fine…How does Vezenkov get that Letter of Clearance?

Since NBA teams cannot trade, nor sell, contracts to non-NBA teams, Vezenkov’s options are limited. He can ask Toronto to waive him. They won’t do that, as simply eating his $6.6 million contract doesn’t make sense.

The other option is that Vezenkov asks the Raptors to work with him on a buyout. That’s a more reasonable path. He could offer to give up as much as all $6.6 million to get free of his contract with Toronto.

Walking away from $6.6 million is an awful lot to give up. But, if Vezenkov is that unhappy in the NBA, he may wish to.

In technical terms, working a buyout still results in a waiver. There is a bit of a challenge with that process, as another NBA could claim Vezenkov off waivers. At that point, that team would assume his full remaining contract, and we’d be right back in this same place.

Simply put: In order to obtain a Letter of Clearance, Vezenkov will need to get waived and then clear waivers to become a full free agent again.

Wait…Why won’t the Raptors just waive Vezenkov?

Toronto gets nothing out of simply waiving Vezenkov. They’d have $6.6 million in dead money on their cap sheet in that case.

Beyond that, the Raptors may like Vezenkov as a player. They may see a better path towards playing time, and a better roster fit with them, than the one Vezenkov had with the Kings.

Finally, if nothing else, $6.6 million is a valuable piece of salary-matching in future trades for Toronto. They aren’t likely to want to just give that up without getting back a significant return of salary through a buyout.

What if Vezenkov just left and signed with Olympiacos? What would happen?

It wouldn’t play out like this. FIBA wouldn’t approve his contract, because he hasn’t received a Letter of Clearance. That would mean he could not play for Olympiacos in any sanctioned competitions.

As for him just leaving the Raptors, he could try that path. That would be a from of holdout. That would begin to trigger some of the same things we talked about potentially happening with the James Harden and Ben Simmons situations.

Essentially, to keep it simple, if Vezenkov held out long enough, the Raptors could effectively pause his contract and could keep him from becoming a free agent.

What happens after this season? Is Vezenkov a free agent in 2025?

Kind of…The Raptors, or any NBA team that holds Vezenkov’s current contract, have a team option for the 2025-26 season. If that option is picked up by the team, Vezenkov will be on the roster for $6.9 million for the 2025-26 season.

If the team declines their option for Vezenkov next summer, he would be a free agent. The Raptors, or any NBA team that holds his contract at the time, could make Vezenkov a restricted free agent. That gives them the right to match any NBA contract he signs. But Vezenkov would be free and clear to sign with a non-NBA club, as his contract will have been fulfilled.

So, what exactly are Sasha Vezenkov’s options here?

There are a few:

  • Play out the 2024-25 season with the Toronto Raptors, or another team if traded again. Vezenkov could then become a free agent in 2025, if the Raptors, or any NBA team, declines their team option for him for the 2025-26 season. If that option is picked up, we could do this whole dance again next summer.
  • Work a straight waiver with the Toronto Raptors, upon which Toronto would eat $6.6 million in dead money on their cap sheet. If Vezenkov clears waivers, he could then be a free agent. If he was claimed off waivers, his contract would move in full to the new NBA team.
  • Work a buyout with the Toronto Raptors. In this scenario, Vezenkov would give back some or all of his $6.6 million contract for the 2024-25 season to become a free agent. He would still need to clear waivers upon a buyout, as listed above.

Sasha Vezenkov may yet return to Greece for Olympiacos for the 2024-25 season. That’s certainly possible. But that will require the Toronto Raptors assistance to happen. And that may require Vezenkov leaving a significant amount of money on the table in a buyout from Toronto.

This isn’t a simple situation with easy decisions, for Vezenkov or the Raptors. It’s going to require a good amount of patience, working together, and ultimately, it may result in Vezenkov having to delay a return to Europe for at least another season.

 

Keith SmithJuly 02, 2024

The NBA offseason is fully in swing now. We’ve seen nearly 50 new contracts agreed to for more than $2 billion in new salary. There have also been several trades made, both officially executed and agreed to.

However, there some situations that remain unresolved. Here are some of the big ones we have our eyes on!

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are involved in all kinds of discussions right now. Are they saving a bunch of cap space to renegotiate-and-extend Lauri Markkanen’s contract? Are they going the other way and trading Markkanen away for even more future draft capital? Are they going to use some of their projected $37.7 million in cap space to trade for an All-Star-level player?

There’s a lot of confusion around Utah right now, maybe because they haven’t picked a direction yet themselves. They’ve got the most cap space left in the league, and they’ve got some good veterans to trade. That’s a lot of flexibility. Danny Ainge has control of the market to some extent, which is just how he likes it.

DeMar DeRozan

DeMar DeRozan is easily the best free agent who is actually available, since LeBron James is returning to the Los Angeles Lakers. After operating for months like DeRozan would simply return to the Chicago Bulls, it’s clear now that isn’t happening. The Bulls are heading in a different direction (more on them next), and so is DeRozan.

The challenge is that the teams with cap space left aren’t great fits for DeRozan, and vice versa. There has been some reporting that DeRozan may sign a one-year deal, possibly for the $12.8 million Non-Taxpayer MLE. Then, the veteran wing would hit free agency again next summer.

Chicago Bulls

What are the Bulls doing? They traded for Josh Giddey, which seems to have been a getting-younger domino that set DeMar DeRozan on a course to leave Chicago. They’ve tried to move Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, but found extremely tepid markets for both.

Jalen Smith was a good signing for part of the Non-Taxpayer MLE, because he can fit on a rebuilding team or a team chasing a playoff spot. But Chicago has a lot more work to do with this roster. The LaVine situation is still uncomfortable and won’t get better the longer it drags out. The Bulls have a lot of guards, especially if they’re going to try to play Lonzo Ball. As it stands, it feels like this offseason is half-done, at most.

Los Angeles Lakers

This one has been talked to death, so we’ll keep it simple. LeBron James offered to take less money to open up flexibility under the first apron for the Lakers to add talent. As of now, the Lakers haven’t done anything. Free agent options have dried up considerably, unless DeMar DeRozan is coming home for the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The bigger option is to make some sort of trade where the Lakers will probably hard-cap themselves at the first apron. Otherwise, James is going to run out of patience, take his full max salary and leave the Lakers to figure out the rest with some restrictions on doing so.

Brandon Ingram and New Orleans Pelicans

Well before free agency opened, it was rumored that Brandon Ingram was on the trade market. He’s going into the final year of his contract, and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of momentum towards an extension. Lots of contenders still need a wing. The Pelicans are now overstuffed with perimeter talent, with Dejounte Murray joining the team. Trading Ingram could bring some balance to the roster.

Where is that balance most needed? In the frontcourt. The big man rotation for New Orleans right now is Zion Williamson, rookie center Yves Missi and…that’s it. It may not be as easy as swapping Ingram for a center, but that’s something the Pelicans need to look at. Or maybe C.J. McCollum is the trade piece. Either way, New Orleans has to add a lot more to their frontcourt.

Expanded Trades

Speaking of the Pelicans…they are a good candidate for an expanded trade. An expanded trade is when the deal gets larger than what was previously reported. The Dejounte Murray trade isn’t complete yet, because it had to wait until the league year changed over. (Cap/CBA Nerd Alert! Because Murray has incentives that would have flipped from unlikely to likely, plus his trade bonus, the Pelicans would have ended up in the tax for 2023-24 if they completed the deal in the last league year.) That gives the Pelicans a chance to expand that trade by bringing in an additional team, or by possibly adding an additional player from the Hawks.

The Mikal Bridges deal to the Knicks is in a similar place. New York would like to avoid being hard-capped at the first apron, if at all possible. That will mean expanding this deal to send more salary out to Brooklyn, or to a third team. That’s certainly possible now, as offseason rosters expand to 21 players per team (as opposed to 15 players on standard contacts, plus three two-way players in the regular season). A handful of teams also have cap space or plenty of room under the tax to eat a small salary in a deal. The Knicks may have to pay an additional pick to avoid a first-apron hard-cap, but that’s probably worth it for the additional flexibility it would create.

Miles Bridges

It’s a bit of a surprise that Miles Bridges’ free agency has lingered into the third day. The Hornets publicly said they “made it clear” to Bridges that they wanted to keep him in Charlotte. Bridges doesn’t seem to have bigger offers to leave. So, what’s the holdup?

There are a couple of possibilities here. Maybe Bridges and the Hornets are far apart in contract terms. Charlotte is rebuilding under a new leadership group from ownership to the front office to the coaching staff. They may not want to lock in on big money for Bridges right now. As much as the Hornets have supported Bridges, that reluctance could have something to do with his past history of domestic violence. That’s not something a team can fully look past, even if Charlotte has already welcomed Bridges back.

The other possibility is that Bridges has sign-and-trade opportunities available to him. He may be looking to leave Charlotte for a contender. If so, that’s likely to take a bit to sort out.

Bruce Brown

The Raptors picked up Brown’s $23 million option, presumably to use him as a trade chip. That hasn’t happened yet. Of course, there was never a guarantee it would happening in the opening moments of the offseason. But it should happen sooner, rather than later.

Toronto has a lot of wings and wing-like players on this roster. Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji and rookie Ja’Kobe Walter all overlap on the wing with Brown, at least to some extent. If you consider Brown as an on-ball guard, then he’s overlapping with Immanuel Quickley and Davion Mitchell. That means something has to give, and ideally before the regular season starts. Otherwise, Darko Rajakovic is going to have a hard time getting everyone minutes.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Trail Blazers got under the tax by moving Malcolm Brogdon to the Wizards in exchange for Deni Avdija. That was a good trade for Portland, even if they did have to give up some draft capital. But that’s probably not enough movement for this roster.

The Blazers are only about $3.7 million under the tax line. That’s not a lot of wiggle room. More importantly in the immediate, Portland is out of roster spots. Something has to give with Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III at center, because the Blazers didn’t draft Donovan Clingan to sit. And, no, those guys don’t make a good double-big pairing, no matter which two you pick.

Portland also has Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and Matisse Thybulle who they could look at moving. Right now, the Tral Blazers have one foot in the rebuilding pool. It’s time to fully jump in by moving another veteran or two…or three.

Veteran Point Guards

There are a lot of veteran point guards still on the market, but spots for their services seem to be drying up rather quickly. Tyus Jones is the best of the bunch. The Wizards acquired Malcolm Brogdon and Bub Carrington, but there’s still room for Jones. Brogdon is a combo guard and Carrington isn’t ready to be an NBA point guard yet. He’s probably going to get the biggest deal of the remaining free agent lead guards.

Beyond Jones, the list is flush with recognizable names for vets who still have lots to offer. Markelle Fultz, Kyle Lowry, Monte Morris, Patrick Beverley, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Payne, Dennis Smith Jr., and Jordan McLaughlin are all guys who could be in NBA rotations. In a flip from previous years, backup centers flew off the market, while several teams are still looking for big man help. This year, it’s the point guards who are hanging out, while available jobs are rapidly thinning out around the league.

 

Keith SmithJune 28, 2024

The Denver Nuggets wanted to create some clearance around the tax aprons for making moves this offseason. The Charlotte Hornets are in asset-collection mode. That makes them natural partners for a salary-dump.

Here are the particulars:

Denver Nuggets acquire: Cash

Charlotte Hornets acquire: Reggie Jackson, three future second-round picks

Let’s dive in!

(Note: We are analyzing this deal as it has been reported. If the trade is adjusted to include additional players or teams, we’ll adjust the analysis.)

Denver Nuggets

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: $5.3 million in 2024-25

  • Reggie Jackson (PG, one year, $5.3 million)

This trade is super straightforward for Denver. They cleared more than $5 million off their books for next season by salary-dumping Reggie Jackson.

The Nuggets should now have about $8.7 million in room under the first apron. And Denver is about $19.5 million under the second apron.

The main priority for the Nuggets this summer is re-signing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who opted out of his contract for next season. Doing so will take the Nuggets back over the first apron, but could leave them with some wiggle room under the second apron.

Charlotte Hornets

Incoming salary: $5.3 million in 2024-25

  • Reggie Jackson (PG, one year, $5.3 million)

Outgoing salary: None

For second time in about a year-and-a-half, the Hornets are eating Reggie Jackson’s contract in a trade. And for a second time, the Hornets will probably waive or buyout Jackson too.

This trade for Charlotte was about renting out some salary space to add three second-round picks. That’s fine for a team that is still in rebuilding mode and collecting as many assets as they can.

 

Keith SmithJune 28, 2024

The Dallas Mavericks found some much-needed wiggle room under the tax apron. The Detroit Pistons got paid to eat another contract.

Here are the particulars:

Dallas Mavericks acquire: Quentin Grimes

Detroit Pistons acquire: Tim Hardaway Jr., three future second-round picks

Let’s dive in!

(Note: We are analyzing this deal as it has been reported. If the trade is adjusted to include additional players or teams, we’ll adjust the analysis.)

Dallas Mavericks

Incoming salary: $4.3 million in 2024-25

  • Quentin Grimes (SG, one year, $4.3 million)

Outgoing salary: $16.2 million in 2024-25

  • Tim Hardaway Jr. (SG, one year, $16.2 million)

This isn’t a straight salary-dump for the Mavericks. Instead, it’s a like a salary-dump-plus.

The primary goal for Dallas in this deal was to knock some money off their cap sheet. Mission accomplished.

The Mavs cleared almost $12 million off the books in this swap. That gives them more than enough clearance under the first apron to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE now. Using at least $5.2 million of the $12.9 million Non-Taxpayer MLE, or giving out a contract with the MLE for more than two seasons, would hard-cap the Mavericks at the first apron. That’s no longer a real concern.

Dallas can now re-sign Derrick Jones Jr., which was one of their stated goals for this offseason. Giving Jones all of the Non-Taxpayer MLE might be an overpay, but the Mavs want to retain their starting small forward.

But wait! There’s more!

In this trade, Dallas also picked up Quentin Grimes. Grimes will be behind a few other Mavericks to open the season, but he’s a worthy flyer. In his first two seasons, Grimes looked like a developing 3&D shooting guard. Last season was a mess, due to injuries and changes in his role, plus a midseason trade. But Grimes showed he can play previously. That’s worth taking a shot on him in trade.

Trading three second-round picks isn’t really all that big of a worry for Dallas. They seem to be fairly cap-conscious, so they should be able to avoid apron issues for a while longer. And the Mavs can acquire second-round selections down the line, should they need some additional draft capital.

Dallas needed to create clearance under the apron. They did that and got a worthy flyer in the process. That’s a win-win trade.

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: $16.2 million in 2024-25

  • Tim Hardaway Jr. (SG, one year, $16.2 million)

Outgoing salary: $4.3 million in 2024-25

  • Quentin Grimes (SG, one year, $4.3 million)

New Pistons front office executive Trajan Langdon said he was open to using his team’s cap space to eat contracts in exchange for assets. Detroit did that with Langdon’s first big trade.

The Pistons still have more than $51 million in cap space, even after taking on Tim Hardaway Jr. and Wendell Moore Jr. in separate trades this offseason. That’s more than enough cap room to do whatever else Langdon has planned for this summer.

Detroit owner Tom Gores said he wanted to see the team acquire contracts, but for players who can also help. Hardaway can do that. Things went sideways for him in Dallas over the last season-plus, but Hardaway can still shoot. The Pistons are light on shooting, so he could help them quite a bit.

Three second-round picks might cause some to shrug, but Detroit ate “only” $16.2 million in salary in this deal. That’s not enough to get them a first-round pick. However, given how quickly second-round draft picks are moved around the NBA now, it’s good to have the extra currency for use in future trades.

Quentin Grimes didn’t really have a future in Detroit. The Pistons weren’t going to extend him on anything that wasn’t team-friendly. If you aren’t going to extend a rookie scale guy, you might as well trade him and let the next team figure it out.

This move isn’t going to put the Pistons in the playoffs, but it’s a smart use of cap space. Mostly, this is a good start for Trajan Langdon in what will be a very busy summer in Detroit.

 

Keith SmithJune 27, 2024

The Oklahoma City Thunder dipped into the draft pick treasure chest to effectively buy an additional first-round pick. The New York Knicks added a bunch of future draft capital, while clearing some room under the hard cap.

Here are the particulars:

Oklahoma City Thunder acquired: draft rights to Dillon Jones

New York Knicks acquired: five future second-round picks

Let’s dive in!

(Note: We are analyzing this deal as it has been reported. If the trade is adjusted to include additional players or teams, we’ll adjust the analysis.)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Part of the reason Sam Presti has been collecting and hoarding draft picks is so that he can move up to get a targeted prospect. That’s exactly what happened here with Dillon Jones.

The Thunder cashed in five second-round picks to move back into the first round to select Jones. Given they still have several additional picks, and they don’t have unlimited roster spots, Oklahoma City will never miss these picks.

As for Jones, the Thunder got a really intriguing prospect. Because Jones played at mid-major Weber State, he’s probably not familiar to a lot of fans, but he can really play. The 6-foot-6 guard was a three-year starter for the Wildcats.

As a senior, Jones’ game went to a new level. He took on increased playmaking responsibility and averaged 5.2 assists per game. That complemented his already solid scoring and rebounding.

In the NBA, Jones is probably more of a secondary creator vs a primary playmaker. If his shot improves, Jones’ ability to play off-ball will be a nice add to the Thunder rotation.

One last note: Jones’ profile looks somewhat similar to that of Jalen Williams. Mid-major star who got better each year, took on more creation responsibility and was a shaky shooter. Picking Williams worked out pretty great for Oklahoma City. There’s a chance they hit again with Jones.

New York Knicks

For the Knicks this was about adding back to their draft pick coffers, while creating financial flexibility. New York traded a total of five of their own first-round picks (four straight picks and a swap) in the deal to acquire Mikal Bridges. As they re-sign their core players, the Knicks are likely to face some second-apron restrictions. Having a bunch of additional second-round picks will help them replace some depth in the coming years, as well as giving them something to put into future trades.

In the immediate, New York cleared an additional $2.6 million in space under the first apron. Given the Knicks may find themselves hard-capped at the first apron as a result of the Bridges trade, that’s a big deal. New York should now have about $6.6 million in wiggle room under the first apron. They could even increase that some too, if necessary.

Creating flexibility under the hard cap is huge for New York. Getting a bunch of draft capital, when they were running a little low, makes this even better for the Knicks.

 

Keith SmithJune 27, 2024

The Washington Wizards came away with their third rookie in the 2024 draft class. The New York Knicks dropped back momentarily, before moving out of the draft entirely with this pick.

Here are the particulars:

Washington Wizards acquired: draft rights to Kyshawn George

New York Knicks acquire: draft rights to Dillon Jones, 2024 51st overall pick

Let’s dive in!

(Note: We are analyzing this deal as it has been reported. If the trade is adjusted to include additional players or teams, we’ll adjust the analysis.)

Washington Wizards

After drafting Alex Sarr with the second pick, and adding Carlton Carrington via trade, the Wizards added a rookie wing in Kyshawn George. On a busy night, Washington added players at all three levels.

George was kind of a late-riser, both in-season and during the draft process. The 6-foot-8 wing is mostly a shooter right now. George hit 40.8% of this three-pointers while at Miami. More impressive? 130 of George’s 190 field goal attempts were from behind the arc.

With Deni Avdija traded to Portland and Corey Kispert due for a rookie scale extension, Washington was able to add a replacement wing in George. At the cost of a second-round pick that probably would go to a two-way player, that’s really good work by the Wizards.

New York Knicks

We’ll keep this one quick, because New York didn’t end up keeping the pick that became Dillon Jones.

This trade was mostly about the Knicks snagging an extra second-round pick to move back what was effectively one pick (New York also held the selection in between the two first-rounders moved in this deal.)

In addition, with the Knicks facing some apron and hard-cap issues, they were able to get a more cost-controlled second round pick in this move. That’s a win, given a second first-round rookie wasn’t cracking the rotation in New York anyway.

 

Keith SmithJune 27, 2024

The Denver Nuggets were rumored to have given a promise to DaRon Holmes II. If that was true, the Nuggets had to move up the draft board to keep that promise. In exchange, the Phoenix Suns dropped back, while adding some much-needed additional draft capital.

Here are the particulars:

Denver Nuggets acquired: draft rights to DaRon Holmes II

Phoenix Suns acquire: draft rights to Ryan Dunn, 2024 56th overall pick, two future second-round picks

Let’s dive in!

(Note: We are analyzing this deal as it has been reported. If the trade is adjusted to include additional players or teams, we’ll adjust the analysis.)

Denver Nuggets

For a few weeks now, speculation was that the Denver Nuggets promised Dayton big man DaRon Holmes II that he would be their selection with the 28th pick. Denver must have sensed that Holmes wouldn’t get to them, because they cashed in some assets to move up to get their man.

Sitting just ahead of the Nuggets were the New York Knicks. After swinging the big trade for Mikal Bridges and re-signing OG Anunoby, the Knicks were going to find it hard to retain Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency. They could have had their eyes on Holmes as a replacement, which may have prompted the Nuggets to jump ahead of them.

Denver needed another big to back up both Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon. The hope has been that Zeke Nnaji would seize that role, but injuries and inconsistent play have kept that from happening.

Holmes can fill that role right away. He’s got the size and skill to play either of the big positions. Holmes will be a good finisher around the basket, as well as having the ability to step out and shoot it. He’s also a very good shot-blocker and rebounder.

In order to acquire their new third big, the Nuggets took on a little additional in tax money. It’s not such a meaningful amount to really matter, but it shows good commitment from ownership to keep adding to the team to stay in title contention.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns hit draft week look to come away with some additional draft capital. They achieved that in this trade. Phoenix snagged and extra second-round pick in this draft, which will be helpful given the second-apron restrictions the Suns are operating under.

Of immediate interest is drafting Ryan Dunn. He’s probably the best defensive wing in this draft, and possibly the best defensive player in the draft, period. Dunn will find his way on the court as a rookie, simply because of his defense and rebounding. On offense, Dunn is pretty raw, but the Suns don’t need any more offense.

Phoenix also saved some money off their tax bill by moving back several picks in the draft. Every little bit helps for a team that projects to be one of the most expensive in the NBA next season. And having some additional draft picks to use in future trades is also welcomed.

 

Keith SmithJune 27, 2024

The Minnesota Timberwolves are going for it. The San Antonio Spurs are still in asset-collection mode. That made them natural trade partners, even if this was for a rookie and not the typical win-now veteran.

Here are the particulars:

Minnesota Timberwolves acquired: draft rights to Rob Dillingham

San Antonio Spurs acquire: 2030 protected first-round pick swap, 2031 protected first-round pick

Let’s dive in!

(Note: We are analyzing this deal as it has been reported. If the trade is adjusted to include additional players or teams, we’ll adjust the analysis.)

Minnesota Timberwolves

Despite a messy ownership situation, no one can accuse the Timberwolves as going cheap on their team. Minnesota is adding about $6.3 million in salary onto their books by acquiring this additional pick. That projects to take the tax penalties from about $56 million to $87 million for next season.

Both sides of the Wolves ownership fight said they were committed to spending what it takes to keep the team a title contender. This is a sign they aren’t backing off that.

One of the holes Minnesota had to fill was at point guard. The Wolves need a backup for Mike Conley for next season, at least. And they also need a player they can develop long-term.

Enter Rob Dillingham.

The Kentucky guard isn’t a perfect player, but he’s also a 19-year-old developing point guard. What Dillingham can do right now is shoot and score. He put up 15.2 points per game, while coming off the bench and playing in the Wildcats equal-opportunity offense. Dillingham put together 48/44/80 shooting splits.

What’s really exciting is that Dillingham managed to average 3.9 assists in 23 minutes per game. That’s an impressive mark, given the circumstances.

Now, Dillingham gets to learn behind one of the steadiest point guards there is. Conley will help Dillingham learn how to run a team, while also challenging him to improve as a defender.

Yes, Minnesota increased their tax bill by about $31 million for next season. But the Timberwolves now have their point guard of the future and the long-term backcourt running mate for Anthony Edwards. That’s money well-spent, and the fact that the team did it should excite Wolves fans.

San Antonio Spurs

There was a sense in the weeks leading up to the Draft, that the Spurs didn’t want to bring two first-round rookies to an already young roster. They explored trading up, but couldn’t find a trade partner.

Instead, San Antonio took the sort of patient approach that has always served them well. The Spurs added a couple of picks that are far enough out that we have no idea of knowing what the Wolves will be by then. That’s always good business.

In addition, the Spurs wiped $6.3 million off their own books for this summer. That pushes them up to somewhere in the range of $25-$30 million in potential cap space to spend in the offseason. Not a bad night’s work, both in the short- and long-term.

 

Keith SmithJune 27, 2024

The Portland Trail Blazers and Washington Wizards don’t really scream traditional trade partners, as both are rebuilding teams. But Portland needed to get out of the tax and needed a forward. Washington has room under the tax and needed a point guard. Thus, a trade was born.

Here are the particulars:

Portland Trail Blazers acquire: Deni Avdija

Washington Wizards acquire: Malcolm Brogdon, draft rights to Carlton Carrington, 2029 first-round pick (second-most favorable of Boston, Milwaukee and Portland), two future second-round picks

Let’s dive in!

(Note: We are analyzing this deal as it has been reported. If the trade is adjusted to include additional players or teams, we’ll adjust the analysis.)

Portland Trail Blazers

Incoming salary: $15.6 million in 2024-25

  • Deni Avdija (SF, four years, $55 million)

Outgoing salary: $22.5 million in 2024-25

  • Malcolm Brogdon (PG, one year, $22.5 million)

Portland is a rebuilding team. And a bad rebuilding team, at that. Because of that, the Trail Blazers could not stay over the luxury tax line.

When the Blazers made their moves last summer (trading Damian Lillard, re-trading Jrue Holiday), they had to take on some money in those trades. It was too close to the season to find a partner to dump any unwanted salary to. And some of that salary carried for multiple years.

Before this trade, Portland was looking at being a luxury tax team. That’s untenable for a team that won 21 games a year ago and doesn’t project to be a whole lot better this upcoming season.

This trade accomplished getting the Blazers out of the tax. In addition, Portland acquired a pretty good player in Deni Avdija too.

It went unnoticed by many, because he was toiling on a bad team, but Avdija put together his best NBA season last year. And it wasn’t particularly close, either. The really good news? Avdija did this after signing a team-friendly extension, so this wasn’t some sort of a contract push.

Avdija averaged 14.7 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists. All were career-highs by a good margin. He also put up 51/37/74 shooting splits, which were also the best marks of his career.

As for his contract, Avdija signed a four-year, $55 million extension last offseason. That deal starts this upcoming season at $15.6 million and declines year-to-year, finishing at $11.9 million in 2027-28. That will be a boon while the Blazers rebuild. One word of caution: If Avdija really pops, it will be very hard, if not impossible, to extend him. Making so little in his final year could make it hard to reach a deal that makes sense for both sides. But that’s a problem to worry about another day.

Portland has a bunch of guards and some bigs. What they don’t have is a lot of proven talent on the forward line, especially not in players that are expected to be around for the long-run. Avdija gives them a 23-year-old versatile wing that can be a part of the future.

It also feels like this is just the start of a busy offseason for Portland. After swinging the Damian Lillard trade so late last offseason, Joe Cronin has a chance to really do some things this summer. The Trail Blazers drafted Donovan Clingan, and he’s going to be their long-term guy at center. That’ll put both Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III on the trade block. The Blazers are also listening to offers for Jerami Grant. And there’s a chance Anfernee Simons and Matisse Thybulle could be moved too.

This is a good first step for Portland to rebalance their roster and cap sheet, even if it did come at the cost of trading away a couple of extra first-round picks.

Washington Wizards

Incoming salary: $22.5 million in 2024-25

  • Malcolm Brogdon (PG, one year, $22.5 million)

Outgoing salary: $15.6 million in 2024-25

  • Deni Avdija (SF, four years, $55 million)

Like the Trail Blazers, the Wizards are just getting started with their rebuild. They also took on some long-term money last summer, but they were able to stay well clear of the tax. In this trade, Washington got some additional draft capital, while also getting a stopgap point guard for the upcoming season.

Malcolm Brogdon might want to rent vs buying in DC. He may not be there long. Washington is in the midst of flipping their roster. They need a point guard, because Tyus Jones is a free agent and may or may not be back. Brogdon can start or come off the bench. But most likely, he’ll be moved in a subsequent deal to a guard-needy team.

The real gets in this trade for Washington were the draft pick that became Carlton “Bub” Carrington, as well as picking up an additional first-round pick and a couple of second-round picks.

Carrington will step in as a rotation guy pretty quickly as a rookie. He’s not a great shooter, but there’s signs that will improve with time. Carrington is hard-nosed and can defend. He’s a developing playmaker, and he can score. Initially, look for Carrington to play as a combo guard off the bench, but the long-term plan may be to turn him into a point guard.

Avdija is a player the Wizards liked a lot. Washington simply has other guys on the forward line. Kyle Kuzma is still in Washington (for now, at least) and Bilal Coulibaly may end up being more of a forward vs a true wing. Corey Kispert also overlaps with Avdija a little bit too. That made moving Avdija trading from a position of relative strength.

Mostly, Washington traded a nice, but non-star player to get back a veteran guard they can flip, along with some draft picks. They already tabbed one nice player in Carrington. There’s more to come, but the Wizards rebuild is off to a pretty good start.

 

Keith SmithJune 26, 2024

The New York Knicks are all in on building a team that can defend and match the Boston Celtics. The Brooklyn Nets have leaned fully into a rebuild by trading their best player to their crosstown rivals.

We’re also going to breakdown Brooklyn’s trade of future draft picks with the Houston Rockets here too. While these are two separate trades (the Nets-Rockets trade is already official), it’s unlikely that Brooklyn would have made one deal without making the other one.

Trade 1

Here are the particulars:

New York Knicks Acquire
- Mikal Bridges
- 2026 2nd Round Pick

Brooklyn Nets Acquire
- Bojan Bogdanovic
- 2025 NYK 1st Round Pick
- 2025 MIL 1st Round Pick (protected 1-4)
- 2025 2nd Round Pick
- 2027 NYK 1st Round Pick
- 2028 NYK 1st Round Pick Swap
- 2029 NYK 1st Round Pick
- 2031 NYK 1st Round Pick

(Note: We are analyzing this deal as it has been reported. If the trade is adjusted to include additional players or teams, we’ll adjust the analysis.)

New York Knicks

Incoming salary: $23.3 million in 2024-25
Mikal Bridges (SG/SF, two years, $48.2 million)

Outgoing salary: $19.0 million in 2024-25
Bojan Bogdanovic (SF/PF, one year, $19.0 million)

The Knicks are loading up on wings and they went to a team they hadn’t traded with for over 40 years to get it done. Mikal Bridges has long been a target for New York, even before they started loading up on former Villanova players. That they now have four former Wildcat teammates is a fun bonus.

Bridges is a very good all-around player. He’s a terrific wing defender. Bridges can switch onto point guards and smaller fours. He’s got great hands, quick feet and a pretty strong base. Tom Thibodeau will enjoy employing Bridges on all kinds of players, as well as incorporating his ability to switch too.

On offense, Bridges is good, if a tad overrated. Bridges is an excellent third option, a pretty good second option, but miscast as a primary scorer. When he’s asked to be the primary offensive engine, Bridges loses a lot of his efficiency, and the offense tends to stall out. He can make tough shots, but you’d rather see him getting set up for some easier looks.

That’s where the fit with the Knicks is so good. Jalen Brunson is the Knicks best player. He drives the Knicks offense. The playoffs showed that New York needed to get Brunson some offensive help. Relying on him to create everything wore him down by the time the postseason ended.

Bridges can be that player. Whether he’s the secondary creator, or if he falls in line behind Brunson and potentially-retained Julius Randle, Bridges will really help New York. In addition, his own efficiency should rebound, because Bridges will get to play off Brunson, and possibly Randle. That will make his looks that much more open.

The draft pick outlay was massive for New York. That’s where this trade tips towards the Nets, in terms of initial analysis. New York gave up full control of their draft future. Yes, they have a handful of potential swap rights left in the intervening years, but the Knicks sent almost everything they could to Brooklyn.

It’s also worth noting that this trade likely takes the Knicks out of the running for whoever the next star to hit the market is. They may not have the draft capital to get involved in that kind of deal now.

That leaves a simple question: Is Mikal Bridges worth five picks, plus a swap? Is any single player that isn’t a surefire All-NBA talent worth that much?

Probably not.

If Bridges is your third-best player, you probably have a very good team. If he’s your fourth-best player, you probably have a great team. If Bridges is your second-best player, you might be very good if the best player is an every-year MVP candidate, or your depth is overwhelming.

It’s that second spot where the Knicks probably fall. They are going to be able to put five good to great players on the floor at all times next year. There are a handful of injury concerns across the roster, but nothing that is overly concerning (minus figuring out the center position).

Ultimately, New York had to have made this trade knowing they could keep OG Anunoby. He’ll pair with Bridges as one of the league’s best defensive wing duos. Up front, we’ll see what this means for Randle. He could be on the move, as the Knicks look to balance the roster and the cap sheet. Maybe New York will play big, keep Randle and let things sort themselves out later. That seems like an open-ended question at the moment.

At center, this trade signals that the Knicks might know they are losing Isaiah Hartenstein. Fitting in a re-signed Anunoby and Hartenstein under the first apron would be really tricky. That would like necessitate trading Randle without much, if any, salary coming back.

The reason the first apron matters, is that New York will be hard-capped at the first apron under the current trade terms. Because the Knicks are taking back more salary than they are sending out, that will hard-cap them at the first apron. If the terms adjust and the Knicks send out more salary, then they’ll end up hard-capped at the second apron via aggregating salary in a deal. That would give New York about $11 million more in wiggle room to work with. Either way, keeping both of their key free agents is going to be a difficult task, even for one of the best cap management groups in the NBA.

On the court, Mikal Bridges is a terrific fit for the Knicks. On the cap sheet, things get a little tricky. In the draft pick coffers, things are really light for New York. In every meaning of the phrase, the Knicks took the approach of “in for a penny, in for a pound” with this deal.

Brooklyn Nets

Incoming salary: $19.0 million in 2024-25
Bojan Bogdanovic (SF/PF, one year, $19.0 million)

Outgoing salary: $23.3 million in 2024-25
Mikal Bridges (SG/SF, two years, $48.2 million)

The Nets are rebuilding. It’s not an easy choice, but after the roster faltered last season, it’s the correct one. As good as Mikal Bridges is, he’s not a foundational piece to build around.

Now, Brooklyn has an incredible amount of draft capital. They have a bunch of cap flexibility moving forward too. They also probably aren’t done dealing either.

Bojan Bogdanovic is still a nice player, even as he enters his age-35 season. Bogdanovic can still shoot and can still score. How long he’ll stick in his second go-around in Brooklyn is unknown. The Nets can probably flip Bogdanovic and his expiring $19 million contract (it will become fully guaranteed when the trade is completed) to a contender that needs a bench shooter/scorer. That will bring in yet another asset in terms of a young player or a second-round pick or two.

But this trade isn’t about Bogdanovic. Not even a little bit, really.

This trade was about Sean Marks acquiring six new draft picks. He’s got four straight up from the Knicks coming his way. Plus, a Bucks pick that is very likely to convey, plus a future swap. That’s five years of his crosstown rivals’ draft under Nets control. That’s remarkable.

The Nets still have a lot of roster-shuffling to come, but they could hit next offseason with as much as $80-$90 million in cap space. That’s an incredible amount of spending power to use in signings or trades.

It’s also worth noting that Brooklyn is likely to be pretty bad next season. That will impact their own draft pick, which they swung a move to reacquire from the Houston Rockets. Let’s take a look at that deal now!


Trade 2

Here are the particulars:

Brooklyn Nets acquire: Return of BKN 2025 first-round pick swap rights, return of BKN 2026 first-round pick

Houston Rockets acquire: 2025 first-round pick swap rights (lesser of Rockets or Thunder for Suns), 2027 PHX first-round pick, 2029 first-round pick (more favorable of Mavericks and Suns), 2029 first-round pick swap rights (lesser of Mavericks or Suns)

(Note: Since there is no financial component here, we’ll go right to the analysis!)

Brooklyn Nets

It’s a chicken or egg situation, but the Nets don’t make this swap without having the Mikal Bridges trade locked in. They don’t make the Mikal Bridges trade without having this deal locked in. It was both, or neither.

The Nets know they are going to be a bad team in 2024-25 and potentially 2025-26 too. The 2025 NBA Draft projects to be loaded with talent, with Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper leading the way, among several others. Now, the Nets can bottom out with the full assurance that they have control of their own picks over the next two seasons.

Houston Rockets

There are two schools of thinking for the Rockets side of this trade. The far more fun, and potentially fantasyland, theory is that Houston is lining up to trade the Suns some of their picks back in exchange for Kevin Durant or possibly Devin Booker.

Sure…why not? It’s fun to dream a little!

The Suns have already sent some signals that they aren’t interested in anything that involves trading Durant or Booker. But that could change if the Rockets make a strong enough offer. Houston has young talent and, now, the Suns own picks to offer them. The Rockets could also send a veteran two in a deal for Durant. That’s a pretty appealing package for a team that is stuck in second apron hell for the next few years otherwise.

The other side is far less fun, but a lot more practical. Houston has a lot of kids on their roster already. Some of those young players need to get paid soon. By moving off the near-term Nets picks for the long-term Suns picks, the Rockets balance out the cap sheet a bit. As some of the younger players may be moving on, or some of the vets are aging out, Houston will have picks from Phoenix coming in to replenish their roster.

Yes, you can ask “Why would Houston punt at a chance at Cooper Flagg via the Nets pick?”, but that’s not likely how it would have gone down. If Brooklyn couldn’t string these two deals together, they probably don’t make the trade with New York. Instead, the Nets likely try to add talent around Bridges to chase a playoff spot.

So, for Houston, there’s not much lost here, even if they don’t turn these picks into anything else. They actually gained an additional pick and an additional swap. And, as already stated, they balanced things out a bit for their cap sheet long-term.

But if they can turn those Suns picks (plus additional players/picks) into Kevin Durant, then the Houston Rockets will have flipped from rebuild to solid team to contender in the span of three seasons. That’s pretty good work, almost no matter the outcome.

 

Keith SmithJune 24, 2024
Breaking down the upcoming offseason for each 2024-25 NBA team, including cap space figures, free agents, draft pick scenarios, & thoughts on potential trades, exceptions, & plenty more.
 
EASTERN CONFERENCE

Boston Celtics

Offseason Approach: Extending key players and retaining/rebuilding depth

Actual Cap Space: -$67.9M

Practical Cap Space: -$64.3M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$21.6M

Under Contract (9): FULL ROSTER Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, Payton Pritchard, Jaden Springer, Jayson Tatum, Jordan Walsh, Derrick White

Potential Free Agents (8): FULL LISTOshae Brissett (unrestricted), J.D. Davison (restricted – two-way), Sam Hauser (restricted – team option), Luke Kornet (unrestricted), Svi Mykhailiuk (unrestricted), Drew Peterson (restricted – two-way), Neemias Queta (restricted – team option), Xavier Tillmans Sr. (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (1): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: None due to being over the second apron

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #30

Notable Extension Candidates: Sam Hauser (veteran extension), Jaden Springer (rookie scale extension), Jayson Tatum (veteran extension), Derrick White (veteran extension)

Analysis: 

The Boston Celtics are the 2024 NBA champions and that means they are the last team for our Offseason Preview series. (Author note: Boy, did that feel good to write!)

The Celtics loaded up last season. They took advantage of the final year before the full weight of second-apron restrictions hit to add Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday in trades. Those two moves helped Boston to a historic season, in which they broke records for offensive efficiency, put together an all-time net rating and brought home Banner 18.

This offseason is going to be more about keeping players in place than it is about adding outside talent. Such is life as a second apron team.

The entire Celtics core from the title run is under team control for next season. Seven of the top-eight players all have at least one more year on their contracts, and Boston holds a team option for Sam Hauser. That means that every key player should be back to defend the championship.

Let’s start with Hauser, as his situation involves a more immediate resolution.

The Celtics have a few paths they can take with the sharpshooter. They can pick up their $2.1 million option and let Hauser go to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2025. Boston could decline their option and make Hauser a restricted free agent this summer. The Celtics could also pick up Hauser’s option, and then extend him on a new deal that would start with the 2025-26 season.

That last option is probably the preferred path. Having Hauser for just $2.1 million this season would be a boon to the tax bill. He could then sign a four-year extension worth up to $80 million. (It won’t come in at that number. That’s simply the max Boston could give Hauser.) The second-best option is to decline Hauser’s option, and then re-sign him in restricted free agency. He gets paid a year early, and sometimes that can lead to a player giving the team a slight overall discount.

No matter what, expect that the path the Celtics take with Sam Hauser’s team option will have been worked out with him and his representatives in advance of that option decision being made. Boston isn’t going to just lose their best designated shooter.

It won’t have nearly the impact as Hauser’s situation, but Boston is likely to pick up their $2.2 million team option for Neemias Queta. He could be the team’s third center next season, or at the very least is a nice deeper option at the five. The Celtics are likely to be very conservative with both Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford next season, making it important to have a couple of backup centers who can step in. Queta fills that role, in addition to possibly being ready for more.

Of the team’s unrestricted free agents, the Celtics will likely do what they can to keep Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman Sr. This may be a “one or the other” situation, as retaining both could get a little pricey. Both players contributed throughout the season and in the playoffs. Unless someone parachutes in with a big offer, both Kornet and Tillman should be available for a minor bump over their minimum deals, if not for the veteran minimum again.

Oshae Brissett declined his player option. He’ll look for a bigger role, and potentially more money, elsewhere next season. If he can’t find it, Brissett could return for another year in Boston. Svi Mykhailiuk may be in the same situation as an unrestricted free agent.

As a second apron team, the Celtics won’t be able to replace anyone who leaves with more than a minimum contract. That makes hitting on the 30th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft an important piece of business this summer. Last year, Brad Stevens took a page from Bill Belichick’s Patriots playbook and traded back several times, picking up additional draft capital as he did so. The team could take a similar approach this year, but adding long-term cost-controlled talent is key for second apron teams to rebuild the backend of their roster.

As for extensions, this is where Boston will be heavily investing this summer.

Jayson Tatum is eligible for and will sign a five-year, Designated Veteran extension worth a projected $314.8 million. That will be the largest contract in NBA history (until next summer) when Tatum signs it. He’ll probably get all the bells and whistles allowable too: 15% trade bonus, player option on the final season, etc. Tatum won’t be eligible for a no-trade clause, because you can only get that in a new contract and not an extension. He also doesn’t have the eight years of service required for an NTC, either.

Derrick White is next up for an extension, and Boston can offer him a four-year, $125.9 million deal. That’s a lot of money, but well below the max. Is White going to have max offers in the summer of 2025? Probably not. But could he get offers for more than the $28.1 million the Celtics can offer in first-year salary on an extension? Probably.

This will ultimately come down to White sacrificing some money to stay in Boston, where he’s wildly popular and a key part of a title team. That’s the hope the Celtics will have, and it’s probably not misplaced. White has never seemed like the kind of player who needs to squeeze every last penny out of a team. Comfort and happiness, along with $31.5 million AAV, can go a long way.

The Boston Celtics are in a pretty fortunate place as the reigning champions. They don’t have any rotation players hitting unrestricted free agency. They don’t have any glaring holes to fill on the roster. They have a good amount of draft capital. And ownership said about a big tax bill that “We’ll get paid back in parades.”

It’s good to be the champs and the Celtics are set up to continue making Finals runs for the foreseeable future.

Dallas Mavericks

Offseason Approach: Keeping a key free agent and building on last season’s Finals run

Actual Cap Space: -$54.6M

Practical Cap Space: -$50.9M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$2.9M

Under Contract (14): FULL ROSTER
Luka Doncic, Dante Exum (non-guaranteed), Alex Fudge (two-way), Daniel Gafford, Josh Green, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jaden Hardy ($400,000 guaranteed), Kyrie Irving, Maxi Kleber, A.J. Lawson (non-guaranteed), Dereck Lively II, Dwight Powell, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, P.J. Washington

Potential Free Agents (4): FULL LIST
Greg Brown III (restricted – two-way), Derrick Jones Jr. (unrestricted), Markieff Morris (unrestricted), Brandon Williams (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (1): JaVale McGee ($2,348,324)

Projected Signing Exceptions:Taxpayer MLE ($5,183,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Davis Bertans ($4,953,980), Seth Curry ($4,000,000)

First Round Draft Picks: None

Notable Extension Candidates: Luka Doncic (veteran extension, not full supermax eligible until 2025), Tim Hardaway Jr. (veteran extension), Jaden Hardy (veteran extension), Maxi Kleber (veteran extension)

Analysis: 

The Dallas Mavericks made an unexpected, but not fluky, run to the NBA Finals. They came up short of a championship, but this team should be contenders for the next several years.

Dallas has Luka Doncic, who makes them a title contender almost by himself. But this team is really set up to run it back with mostly the same squad. 14 players are under contract, which gives the Mavericks an NBA-low four potential free agents (tied with the Charlotte Hornets and San Antonio Spurs).

We’ll start there, because one of Dallas’ few free agents is an important player. Derrick Jones Jr. made the most of his veteran minimum contract last season. He became a key starter and was the Mavs best wing defender. No better of a source than Mavericks GM Nico Harrison called Jones the team’s 1A and 1B priority to re-sign this offseason.

The challenge for Dallas is that, as things currently stand, they can’t offer Jones more than the Taxpayer MLE of just over $5 million for next season. That’s a raise off the minimum deal that Jones played for last season, but it may not be enough of one.

That’s where Harrison can do some work to clear additional room under the first apron to open up the Non-Taxpayer MLE. If Harrison can do that, Dallas could then give Jones some or all of the $12.9 million MLE to return on a contract up to four years in length.

How does Harrison create that wiggle room? He’s likely going to have to do a salary-shedding trade or two. One that comes immediately to mind is moving Tim Hardaway Jr. and his expiring $16.2 million contract. Hardaway lost his rotation spot in Dallas, but could benefit from a fresh start elsewhere. Hitting five three-pointers in Game 4 of the NBA Finals shows that Hardaway can still contribute in the right situation.

The Mavs only other non-two-way free agent is Markieff Morris. He’s a veteran locker room presence, so Morris’ spot on the team likely comes down to Dallas having a roster spot for him. If they finish the offseason with an open spot, Morris could be back. If not, he’s probably looking for a similar role with another team.

Dallas has a few contract guarantee situations to handle as well. Dante Exum, Jaden Hardy and A.J. Lawson all have partial or non-guaranteed deals for next season. All had moments, so there is a good chance that all come back.

Exum is a virtual lock to see his deal guaranteed. He had a nice return-to-the-NBA season, as he hit 53.3% of his shots, including 49.1% from behind the arc. Exum is also a solid ballhandler, playmaker and a good backcourt defender.

Hardy is going to get his deal guaranteed too. He’s about to turn 22 years old and has shown enough promise that he may start next season as a rotation player.

Lawson is in a different spot. Dallas could move him to open a roster spot and to clear a little bit of money off a likely tax bill. But Lawson is someone that the Mavs thought highly enough of to sign to a long-term deal off a two-way contract. The guess here is that Lawson sticks around, at least through training camp.

Extensions are likely to be a fairly non-event for the Mavericks, as well. Dallas will try to lock up Hardy before he hits restricted free agency in 2025. Hardaway Jr. is probably going to be playing elsewhere. Kleber still has two years left on his contract, so this is something that may come up next season.

As for Doncic, it’s a year too early for him to extend. Yes, he’s already qualified for the Designated Veteran extension, or so-called supermax. But Doncic can’t sign for the full term yet. In order to do that, he’ll need to wait one more season.

What is likely to happen is Doncic will play out this season, then next summer he’ll sign a projected five-year, $346.3 supermax extension. Doncic will do this by declining his player option for 2026-27 and adding five new years onto his contract. This is similar to the approach Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics took this past season, before Tatum will sign a supermax extension this summer.

Harrison has proven to be aggressive since taking over the Mavs front office. He may look to make moves this summer, as he continues to tweak the roster around Doncic and Kyrie Irving. But most of the pieces are in place. If Jones leaves, look for Dallas to be aggressive in replacing him using the Non-Taxpayer MLE. That will hard cap the team at the first apron, but the roster will be mostly full at that point.

The Dallas Mavericks are contenders. They don’t need to add much to retain that status, but they can’t rest on their laurels either. Nico Harrison challenged everyone to come back an improved player next season. That, combined with a move here and there, will see Dallas battling for a return trip to the NBA Finals.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Offseason Approach: Keeping some free agents while managing a massive tax bill

Actual Cap Space: -$130.4M

Practical Cap Space: -$128.4M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$24.5M

Under Contract (11): FULL ROSTER
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaylen Clark (two-way), Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Leonard Miller, Josh Minott (non-guaranteed), Wendell Moore Jr., Naz Reid, Karl-Anthony Towns

Potential Free Agents (6): FULL LIST
Kyle Anderson (unrestricted), Luka Garza (restricted), Jordan McLaughlin (unrestricted), Monte Morris (unrestricted), Daishen Nix (restricted – two-way), T.J. Warren (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:None due to being over the second apron

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #27

Notable Extension Candidates: Rudy Gobert (veteran extension), Jordan McLaughlin (veteran extension through June 30), Josh Minott (veteran extension), Monte Morris (veteran extension through June 30)

Analysis: 

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in unfamiliar territory in more ways than one. The Wolves are set to enter next season as title contenders. That’s a new status for this group. As such, Minnesota is also living in a whole new world as far as the NBA luxury tax.

The Timberwolves are going to be deep into the tax and well above the second apron. And that’s before they even fill out their roster. How did Minnesota get here so quickly?

The Wolves only took on one big deal via trade, when they acquired Rudy Gobert. Mostly, the team extending their homegrown talent has put them in this spot. 30% of the cap max extensions for Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will start next season. In addition, Jaden McDaniels is on the books for Year 1 of a five-year, $133.5 million extension. If that wasn’t enough, Mike Conley signed a two-year, $20.7 million extension.

Add some carry-over salaries and Minnesota is over the second apron for just 10 players. That’s not the end of the world, because this roster is flush with talent. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some decisions to be made this offseason.

There are a few free agents that the Timberwolves would probably like to bring back, provided they can stomach the increased tax bill. Kyle Anderson, Monte Morris and Jordan McLaughlin top this list.

Anderson is a key frontcourt reserve. The Wolves like his playmaking, defense and occasional scoring on the second unit. Anderson does a nice job at either forward spot. He’s also become someone the team can run the offense through at times during bench minutes. Anderson is going to have offers starting around $10 to $12 million this offseason. That’s hardly out of bounds, but for Minnesota that would come with at least a 3-to-1 tax multiplier. That’s the decision the Wolves have to make: Even on a fair-value contract, is Anderson worth paying the extra for in tax penalties?

The same is true of both Monte Morris and Jordan McLaughlin. Minnesota knows the value of having a high-end backup for Mike Conley – who will have his minutes and games played managed – but how much can they afford to pay for that player? Presumably, they’d love to have either Morris or McLaughlin back, but the cost will be prohibitive.

There’s also the chance that any of Anderson, Morris or McLaughlin will want to move on for a bigger role. At least one of these players won’t be back, which will leave Minnesota filling their spot with a draft pick or a veteran minimum signing.

As a second-apron team, the Wolves will be restricted in what they can do this summer. They can re-sign their own free agents, as covered above. Minnesota can sign their draft picks, and they can sign players to minimum contracts. They can also make trades, but they are fairly restricted. A second-apron team can’t take back more money than they send out, and they can’t aggregate player salaries in trade either.

Unless the unexpected happens and Tim Connelly – who extended his deal and pushed an opt-out to next summer – swings a blockbuster trade involving Karl-Anthony Towns, this is going to be a somewhat muted offseason for the Wolves. They’ll re-sign a player or two, fill out the roster through the draft and minimum signings, and get back at it.

The real story to watch for the Timberwolves will come off-court. Well, off the basketball court, at least.

The Wolves remain embroiled in a battle for ownership of the club. That will continue to play out, both publicly and legally, for a while yet. The good news for Minnesota fans? Both Glen Taylor and the Marc Lore/Alex Rodriguez sides of this fight have said that they have no intention of letting finances break up the roster.

A boring summer isn’t usually what fans want, but it’s something that Minnesota Timberwolves fans should embrace. That means that an already good team is more or less running it back. It’s been a long time since this franchise has had expectations of contending like they currently have, but this is where the Wolves are living now.

Indiana Pacers

Offseason Approach: Retaining depth after re-signing Pascal Siakam

Actual Cap Space: -$71.1M

Practical Cap Space: -$65.1M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $19.8M

Under Contract (11): FULL ROSTER
Kendall Brown (non-guaranteed), Tyrese Haliburton, Isaiah Jackson, Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell ($5 million guaranteed), Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Ben Sheppard, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner, Jarace Walker

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Quenton Jackson (restricted – two-way), James Johnson (unrestricted), Doug McDermott (unrestricted), Jalen Smith (unrestricted – player option), Oscar Tshiebwe (restricted – two-way), Obi Toppin (restricted), Isaiah Wong (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (3): Malik Fitts ($555,216), Juwan Morgan ($576,229), Nik Stauskas ($702,310)

Projected Signing Exceptions:Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,681,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: None

Notable Extension Candidates: Isaiah Jackson (rookie scale extension), T.J. McConnell (veteran extension), Doug McDermott (veteran extension – through June 30), Andrew Nembhard (veteran extension), Jalen Smith (veteran extension – if player option is exercised)

Analysis: 

The Indiana Pacers went further than anyone could have expected last season. Yes, they took advantage of some injured teams on their run to the Eastern Conference Finals. But that takes away from how good the Pacers were themselves.

Indiana would have had a historically great offense, if it weren’t for the Boston Celtics being slightly better this season. The Pacers played an up-tempo style, which fit perfectly with their personnel. That fit was only improved when Indiana traded for Pascal Siakam ahead of the trade deadline.

And Pascal Siakam is where we’ll start the offseason for the Pacers. Under the new CBA, teams can negotiate and agree to terms with their own free agents starting the day after the NBA Finals end. Indiana put this rule to good use by agreeing to a four-year, $189.5 million deal with Siakam before free agency even officially opened.

This is a four-year max deal for Siakam, which was expected for him this offseason. The Pacers did well to keep this deal from extending to a fifth year. That would have been a bit of overkill, considering Siakam is already 30 years old.

As it is, this contract is fine. Indiana will have both Siakam and Haliburton on max deals, but the rest of their cap sheet structure can support that. And Siakam should return value on a max deal, because he’s still a very good all-around player. This is a great combination of player, surrounding talent and style.

The rest of the Pacers offseason should be relatively lowkey. Indiana would presumably like to re-sign Obi Toppin, who had a really nice season. He began the year as the Pacers starting power forward, then shifted to a bench role after the Siakam trade.

Toppin was equally productive off the bench as he was as a starter. That’s big, because with Siakam in the fold, the Pacers can only offer Toppin a bench role. That will make this a question of contract.

If Indiana can get Toppin for around $15 million in first-year salary, they should sign him. That would see almost all of last season’s rotation return. If the deal starts to climb over $20 million, in first-year salary or in AAV, the Pacers should probably let Toppin go. At that point, Kevin Pritchard should seek to work out a sign-and-trade before the team pursuing Toppin signs him to an offer sheet.

As it stands, none of the cap space teams seem overly likely to give Toppin a big offer sheet, so that should benefit the Pacers in retaining him. If Toppin does leave, that will open up minutes for last year’s lottery pick Jarace Walker to play. Indiana is still very high on Walker, who saw limited playing time last year.

As for the team’s other free agent decisions, it’s mostly up to Doug McDermott and Jalen Smith on returning. Smith can pick up his player option, but he probably won’t. As Isaiah Jackson has emerged as Myles Turner’s backup, Smith has played less. He can look for a bigger role and more money elsewhere.

McDermott could come back as a designated shooter off the bench, but the Pacers rotation is a little crowded. McDermott may not have a consistent role. Indiana would probably bring McDermott back on a discount from last year’s salary, but he could find a bigger offer and bigger role elsewhere.

From there, the Pacers offseason will hinge on extensions. The aforementioned Jackson is eligible for a rookie scale extension. Something in the range of the $11 million per-year extension that Aaron Nesmith signed last year would be a good target. Look for Indiana to sign Jackson to something of similar value, perhaps with a fourth year tacked on.

Key guards T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard are both extension-eligible, also. McConnell is reportedly already working on an extension with the Pacers. Look for something for similar money to what McConnell makes now, but with two or three additional years added to his deal. Something in the range of three new years and $30 million makes sense, with a partially guaranteed year on the final season.

Nembhard’s deal is going to come in bigger. He’s eligible for what we like to call the “Dinwiddie Extension”, where Nembhard can extend for a deal based of the average salary. As of now, that projects to be a four-year, $77.7 million extension.

That’s probably where the Pacers need to go to for Nembhard to stick around. He’s proven to be a solid starter next to Haliburton in the backcourt. And Nembhard can handle increased reps if Haliburton misses time. In every way, Nembhard is a solid starter and a terrific combo guard in the rotation of a contender. That’s worth a deal that comes in shy of $20 million AAV.

The Indiana Pacers took a big step forward a year ago. Now, they want to stay in the range of being a contender. They’re off to a good start with re-signing Pascal Siakam. If they can get the rest of the core locked up, Indiana will be positioned to hit the ground running next season.

Denver Nuggets

Offseason Approach: Retaining Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and adding depth

Actual Cap Space: -$79.1M

Practical Cap Space: -$70.4M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$5.7M

Under Contract (10): FULL ROSTER
Christan Braun, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Zeke Nnaji, Jalen Pickett, Michael Porter Jr., Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson, Peyton Watson

Potential Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (unrestricted – player option), Vlatko Cancar (unrestricted – team option), Collin Gillespie (restricted – two-way), Justin Holiday (unrestricted), Jay Huff (restricted – two-way), Reggie Jackson (unrestricted – player option), DeAndre Jordan (unrestricted), Braxton Key (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:None due to being over the second apron

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #28

Notable Extension Candidates: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (veteran extension - if player option is exercised), Vlatko Cancar (veteran extension - if team option is exercised), Aaron Gordon (veteran extension), Jamal Murray (veteran extension), Michael Porter Jr. (veteran extension)

Analysis: 

The Denver Nuggets slipped in their post-title season. They won more games than the previous season, but after cruising through the 2023 postseason, Denver lost in the second round of the 2024 playoffs.

Now, the Nuggets have to pick up the pieces a little bit. But anyone suggesting this team’s run of success is over, is probably wishing and hoping more than they are truly analyzing.

The first priority for the Nuggets this summer is to re-sign Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’s likely to opt out, but there are no signs he wants to leave Denver. Caldwell-Pope would like to add more years to his deal, so opting out is the best path for him. Unless the bidding gets out of hand, the Nuggets will do what it takes to get their best backcourt defender signed for the next few years.

Reggie Jackson will probably opt in. He’s not getting offers for more than the $5.25 million he’ll making by picking up his option. Vlatko Cancar looked like he was headed for a big season as a backup forward before tearing his ACL over the summer. Denver will pick up their team option and hope he’s ready to fill that role this season.

That leaves the Nuggets looking for more depth. They could use a consistent backup for Nikola Jokic, as well as another wing and one more ballhandler for the backcourt.

Last season, Denver hoped that young players would be ready for bigger roles. Christian Braun built on a strong rookie season with a good sophomore year. Peyton Watson was solid in the regular season, but was out of the rotation by the end of the playoffs. Zeke Nnaji had moments, but continued to be inconsistent and injury-prone.

Of the team’s rookies, Julian Strawther flashed, but couldn’t hold down a rotation role. Jalen Pickett and Hunter Tyson weren’t ready to play NBA minutes, and will need at least another year of development.

By the time Denver got halfway through their second-round series with the Minnesota Timberwolves, they were a six-man team. That can’t be the case next season.

The challenge? The Nuggets are a second-apron team (or will be once they re-sign Caldwell-Pope). That means they are limited in how they can add depth. Denver can sign their own draft picks, sign players to minimum contracts and make trades with some pretty heavy restrictions.

That makes nailing their first-round pick important. However, selecting at 28th makes that a tricky proposition. Denver has been linked to DaRon Holmes II in the first round. So much so, that most think the Nuggets gave Holmes a draft promise. If so, he’d be an excellent pick. Holmes should be able to step in and play either big position on Day 1. That would take care of a major need for the Nuggets.

Another issue for Denver is roster spots. If everyone returns that is under contract, plus Caldwell-Pope, Cancar and Jackson, and their first-round pick, Denver will only have one open roster spot. As a second-apron team, the Nuggets won’t be able to aggregate players together in trades, so that makes any unbalanced deals unlikely.

That spot will likely go to a veteran signing. Depending on how the draft goes, that could be a backup center or a backup guard or another wing. Don’t rule out a return for DeAndre Jordan or Justin Holiday, but don’t lock either player in for last roster spot. The Nuggets have tended to cycle through some veterans, as they look for the perfect fit of production, while not blocking other players.

Mostly, this is probably going to be a fairly low-key offseason for Denver. Sure, they could get wild and trade someone like Michael Porter Jr. in an attempt to add depth. But it’s more likely that the Nuggets will hope for internal development from their young players, while doing some tinkering on the backend of the roster.

Where things will be a lot more telling for Denver is with extensions. We’ll take Caldwell-Pope out of the mix for now, because it seems more likely that he opts out and signs a new deal. Even then, the Nuggets have three other starters who are extension-eligible.

Jamal Murray is the most important of that bunch. Murray and the Nuggets can sign a projected four-year, $208.5 million extension this summer. That’s probably how things will go. Murray could delay and hope for an All-NBA nod next season, which would make him eligible for a five-year, $314.8 million Designated Veteran contract in 2025. But, given that Murray hasn’t made so much as an All-Star team and has battled some knee issues, he’s probably best to lock in the $208.5 million this summer.

Aaron Gordon is also extension-eligible, but closer to the start of training camp. Gordon has two years left on his deal. That makes this one a bit less pressing than Murray’s extension, but the second year for Gordon is a player option. That means he could functionally be on an expiring contract. Expect there to be talks, but Gordon’s next deal could come later.

The third extension-eligible player is Michael Porter Jr., but he’s not likely to extend. He has three full years left on his deal. At some point, Denver can’t keep everyone. That doesn’t mean Porter is going anywhere this summer – he’s probably not – but the Nuggets aren’t adding more years to his deal either. At least not yet.

The Denver Nuggets have most of what they need to make another title run. They have a terrific starting five, assuming they re-sign Caldwell-Pope. Some of the kids will improve and step into rotation roles, and they’ll add a new player or two. Mostly, this offseason is about setting things up for this season and beyond, as Denver looks to maximize the roster around Nikola Jokic.

New York Knicks

Offseason Approach: Re-signing key free agents and looking for one more big addition

Actual Cap Space: -$74.0M

Practical Cap Space: $68.1M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $37.4M

Under Contract (8): FULL ROSTER
Bojan Bogdanovic ($2 million guaranteed), Jalen Brunson, Mamadi Diakite (non-guaranteed), Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, Miles McBride, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson

Potential Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Precious Achiuwa (restricted), OG Anunoby (unrestricted – player option), Charlie Brown Jr. (unrestricted – two-way), Alec Burks (unrestricted), Isaiah Hartenstein (unrestricted), DaQuan Jeffries (unrestricted – team option), Shake Milton (unrestricted), Jericho Sims (restricted – team option), Jacob Toppin (restricted – two-way), Duane Washington Jr. (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000) Bi-Annual Exception ($4,681,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Obi Toppin ($6,803,012), RJ Barrett ($5,241,072), Malachi Flynn ($3,873,025)

First Round Draft Picks: #24, #25

Notable Extension Candidates: OG Anunoby (veteran extension – through June 30), Bojan Bogdanovic (veteran extension), Jalen Brunson (veteran extension), Julius Randle (veteran extension), Mitchell Robinson (veteran extension), Jericho Sims (veteran extension)

Analysis: 

The New York Knicks made quite the run in the playoffs, despite losing a key player in what felt like a game-by-game basis. Now, the Knicks have to find a way to keep the team together, while also looking for potential upgrades to help them take the next step.

New York has a pretty good core under contract. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle are All-Stars at worst and All-NBA at best. Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo and Mitchell Robinson are all good starters, or very high-end reserves. Miles McBride is on one of the best contracts in the NBA. Even Bojan Bogdanovic, despite his struggles after joining the Knicks, is a proven scorer/shooter. (The assumption is that New York will guarantee Bogdanovic’s deal for just over $19 million, if for no other reason that having him as salary-matching in a trade this season.)

That’s a pretty good base to start the summer with. However, the Knicks have a couple of key free agents to re-sign to keep this group fully together.

Let’s start with OG Anunoby, as he’s one of the better free agents on the market this summer.

We’ll begin with recognizing that Anunoby could still extend his contract. If he declined his player option, Anunoby could sign a four-year, $116.9 million extension. The challenge? That’s too light for Anunoby.

Instead, Anunoby will decline his player option and hit unrestricted free agency this summer. The good news for the Knicks? They have his full Bird rights, gave up a lot to get Anunoby and have no intention of letting him leave.

Look for a deal that starts with at somewhere around $40 million AAV. That’s a hefty payday without being a max deal. That’s feels right for Anunoby’s production, role and potential. The real question: Will Anunoby sign for four years or five years?

A four-year deal with a player option on the final season would put Anunoby back on the market before his age-30 season. Bet on that being the likely path, which will keep the Knicks and the combo forward together on a deal that is something around four years and $160 million.

While hammering out a long-term deal with Anunoby, the Knicks also want to re-sign Isaiah Hartenstein. Unlike with Anunoby, New York only has Early Bird rights for Hartenstein. That limits what they can offer him to about $72.5 million over four years.

An AAV of $18 million is pretty good for Hartenstein, who has only made about $22.6 million total in his six-year career. A potential pitfall is that there are a couple of cap space suitors who might be willing to beat that offer.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have regularly been mentioned as having interest in signing Hartenstein. The Thunder have about $35 million in cap space this summer, and they only have a couple of roster spots to fill. That means they could offer Hartenstein a starting salary well north of $20 million without blinking. The Orlando Magic could also be looking at upgrading their starting center spot using their cap space.

Essentially, Hartenstein’s decision will come down to staying in New York, where he’ll play a big role as a backup or starting center on a contender, or jumping for more money elsewhere. The good news for New York is that Hartenstein isn’t likely to get offers for much more than $20 million AAV. That’s not such a massive gap to bridge from their max offer.

One last thing with Hartenstein and the Knicks: Keep an eye on the two sides agreeing to a two-year deal worth about $33.6 million. That would get Hartenstein back on the market in 2026 ahead of his age-28 season. New York would have full Bird rights at that point, in an environment where the cap will have gone up by quite a bit. Feels like a pretty fair compromise for both player and team.

As an over-the-cap team, the Knicks would be smart to pick up their team option for Jericho Sims. He’s not going to be a priority free agent in the summer of 2025, so keeping Sims this year, with some uncertainty at center, is prudent.

Alec Burks seemed like he was definitely heading elsewhere, but a late-playoffs resurgence could make things look a little different. If Burks was willing to do a short-term deal for less than $10 million, the Knicks could re-sign him for backcourt depth.

Precious Achiuwa’s restricted free agent status will probably temper his market quite a bit. If New York extends a $13 million qualifying offer (and they likely will), Achiuwa is a candidate to sign it, get the implied no-trade clause, and play out the year before unrestricted free agency in 2025. If Hartenstein leaves, a long-term deal could make sense for Achiuwa, who can back up either big position.

At the draft, the Knicks have two first-round picks. New York has been pretty open to moving around the draft board in the past, so don’t rule out draft day trades. Bringing two rookies onto a roster that is pretty well fleshed out, might not be ideal. Don’t be surprised if the Knicks kick the can down the road with one of these picks, while also picking up some additional draft capital.

There are two more things to watch, and they are intertwined. First up are tax implications. If New York re-signs Anunoby to the type of deal he’s expected to command, they’ll be over the luxury tax. If they re-sign both Anunoby and Hartenstein, they’ll probably be a second apron team. That puts some serious limits on what the team can do, even if the roster will mostly be full at that point anyway.

The tied-in impact is New York’s ability to trade for a star player. There’s been a feeling that the Knicks have been waiting for the right star to become available before jumping on a deal. If New York re-signs both Anunoby and Hartenstein, trading for a star becomes complicated because of all the restrictions placed upon a second apron team. That means this summer might be between trading for a star and re-signing both key free agents.

Given their patient approach to things since Leon Rose took over, look for the Knicks to stay the course, re-sign key players and see what comes their way. That way, New York avoids the associated hard cap that could come with trading for a star and keeps their options open moving forward.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Offseason Approach: Adding one more piece to put them over the top

Actual Cap Space: -$24.5M

Practical Cap Space: #35.3M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $65.6M

Under Contract (10): FULL ROSTER
Ousmane Dieng, Lu Dort, Adam Flagler (two-way), Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams

Potential Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Bismack Biyombo (unrestricted), Gordon Hayward (unrestricted), Isaiah Joe (unrestricted – team option), Keyontae Johnson (restricted – two-way), Mike Muscala (unrestricted), Olivier Sarr (restricted – two-way), Lindy Waters III (restricted – team option), Aaron Wiggins (restricted – team option)

Dead Cap (1): Kevin Porter Jr. ($1,000,000)

Projected Signing Exceptions:Room Exception ($8,006,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #12

Notable Extension Candidates: Josh Giddey (rookie scale extension), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (veteran extension), Gordon Hayward (veteran extension through June 30), Aaron Wiggins (veteran extension), Jaylen Williams (veteran extension)

Analysis: 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are no longer ahead of schedule. They’re simply here. The Thunder are contenders.

Scary for the rest of the league? The Thunder are contenders with $35 million in cap space.

Even scarier? The Thunder are contenders with $35 million in cap space and maybe one rotation hole to fill.

Oklahoma City was the top team in the Western Conference in the regular season. They got eliminated in the second round by the Dallas Mavericks, but the Thunder now know what it will take to take the next step.

Oklahoma City is well-positioned to take that step. Not only will the young players improve, but they also have playoff experience now. The team is also pretty flush with talent.

The Thunder have maybe one rotation spot available for next season. They’ve got guards and wings galore, even if you can never really have enough wings. Oklahoma City could use another big, and they’re set up to chase whoever they want.

Not only does Sam Presti have that $35 million in cap space to work with, but he can get there without sacrificing a single rotation player from last season. Most of the Thunder’s flexibility will come via renouncing the free agent rights for Gordon Hayward, who most definitely won’t be back for another run in OKC.

That’s not full max cap space, but it’s more than enough to work with. This summer, the Thunder probably aren’t chasing any of the potential max free agents anyway. But the second-tier guys, that’s where Presti can do work.

If it’s a straight free agent signing, the Thunder can offer a starting salary that includes all of their cap space at $35 million. It probably won’t come to that, but the point is that Oklahoma City can push higher than a lot of other teams. If someone the Thunder want gets an offer for $20 million, they can offer $25 or $30 million without really blinking.

Free agent target lists should start with Isaiah Hartenstein and Nic Claxton. Hartenstein has been rumored as a prime target for the Thunder for a while now. He’d fit in perfectly as a physical presence at the five. He can play with Chet Holmgren in double-big lineups, while also anchoring the defense in lineups when Holmgren sits.

One factor in Oklahoma City’s favor with chasing Hartenstein is that the New York Knicks are limited in what they can pay the big man. The Knicks only have Early Bird rights for Hartenstein, which limit them to a contract in the range of $80 million over four years. That $20 million AAV is a figure that the Thunder can easily beat.

Claxton would upgrade OKC’s already good defense, by giving them another switchable, shot-blocking big man. Claxton isn’t as clean of a fit on offense, because he’s not the passer nor screener that Hartenstein is.

If the Thunder wanted to go for more of a power forward option, they could pursue Pascal Siakam (if things were to go sideways with the Indiana Pacers) or Chicago Bulls restricted free agent Patrick Williams. Tying up cap space in Williams as a restricted free agent could get a little messy, given Chicago’s match right, but OKC could craft an offer sheet big enough to make the Bulls blink without even using all of their cap space.

Bigger wings/forwards like OG Anunoby or a return engagement from Paul George could make sense. But those signings would be larger than any of the non-Siakam targets mentioned here. And they’d be long-term contracts too.

That’s where things get a bit complicated for the Thunder. The cap sheet is pretty clean right now. Only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort are on sizable deals. But extensions are coming due very quickly for Oklahoma City. By the time we get to the 2026-27 season, it’s reasonable to expect that Holmgren and Jalen Williams will be on max deals, and Gilgeous-Alexander will be in the final year of his current contract before starting a supermax extension the following year.

That means the Thunder are in a two-year window where they can add a big salary without causing tax and apron issues. A good proxy for where Oklahoma City is at are the Boston Celtics. Boston had a host of homegrown talent, several on extensions, and used their last bit of flexibility to trade for Al Horford, Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday in successive deals. One benefit the Celtics had that the Thunder won’t enjoy: the lack of first and second apron restrictions. Boston was able to make their deals before the apron rules would have put the kibosh on some of their trades.

For Oklahoma City, they need to strike now. Three players on deals that will be over $40 million will eat up the vast majority of the cap, even as the cap rises year over year. And if you trip over the aprons, it’ll be difficult to make deals.

We covered some free agent targets, but the Thunder could make trades too. As you undoubtedly know, Oklahoma City has more than enough draft capital to offer up in deals. They could also dangle a player like Josh Giddey, before they have to deal with extending him themselves.

One player who makes a bunch of sense for the Thunder is John Collins of the Utah Jazz. Collins can shoot, finish around the rim and he’d help clean up OKC’s rebounding issues. In addition, he could start next to Holmgren, but also back him up. Even better? Collins is owed $26.6 million each of the next two years. Acquiring him, even with sending no salary back, would leave about $8.5 million cap space to work with for other moves. And Collins’ deal would be up before extension-time for the Thunder’s young stars. If he works out great, Oklahoma City would have full Bird rights to hash out a new contract with.

If sliding Holmgren over to the four is more your thing, then Jarrett Allen, Clint Capela or Wendell Carter Jr. would all be reasonable trade targets.

Of their own free agents, look for Presti to pick up the team option for Isaiah Joe. Then, keep an eye on an extension for Joe. Another player in a similar situation is Aaron Wiggins. He’s become a pretty solid rotation wing, and the Thunder will probably pick up his option too, while looking to sign him to a team-friendly long-term deal. It’s also possible that Oklahoma City could decline Wiggins’ option, and pay him this summer as a restricted free agent. They might be able to get a bit of a discount by paying him a year early than they have to.

The rest of the group are probably gone, unless there is a roster spot after the main moves are completed. Lindy Waters III seems perpetually on the roster bubble, and the Thunder have to fit in another draft pick. The veterans are all end-of-bench depth at this point in their careers.

At the draft, the best player available will be the pick. Just keep an eye on dribble-pass-shoot players. If you can’t do all three, the Thunder probably aren’t interested.

This is a big summer for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are right there. One move makes them title contenders. They might get there anyway, but why not give those chances a boost? It’s not quite now or never time, but the window to add outside talent won’t last forever. It’s time for the Thunder to take advantage while they can.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Offseason Approach: Resetting the roster while picking a long-term core

Actual Cap Space: -$65.0M

Practical Cap Space: -$59.4M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $10.2M

Under Contract (11): FULL ROSTER
Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Ty Jerome, Caris LeVert, Sam Merrill (non-guaranteed), Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Georges Niang, Craig Porter Jr. ($1 million guaranteed), Max Strus, Dean Wade

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Emoni Bates (restricted – two-way), Damian Jones (unrestricted), Isaiah Mobley (restricted – two-way), Marcus Morris Sr. (unrestricted), Pete Nance (restricted – two-way), Isaac Okoro (restricted), Tristan Thompson (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (1): Ricky Rubio ($1,301,031)

Projected Signing Exceptions:Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #20

Notable Extension Candidates: Jarrett Allen (veteran extension), Donovan Mitchell (veteran extension), Evan Mobley (rookie scale extension)

Analysis: 

It’s rare that an extension is the key to a team’s offseason, but such is the case for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Usually, an offseason is more about signings, re-signing and trades. But for the Cavs, everything will seemingly orbit around an extension for Donovan Mitchell.

This is mostly about Mitchell and locking in a guy who has become Cleveland’s franchise player. The Cavs can offer the veteran guard a four-year, $208.5 million extension, if Mitchell declines his player option for 2025-26. That’s a 30% of the cap max with 8% raises. Cleveland can’t offer Mitchell the so-called supermax extension, because they didn’t acquire him while he was still on his rookie scale contract.

That’s a roughly $52 million AAV. That’s a lot of money, and most players will take the guaranteed big payday. Then, if things aren’t working out, the player will ask for a trade after a year or two. We may not like it, but that’s how it works.

If Mitchell declines the extension, it won’t be about money. Sure, the Cavaliers could offer him a fifth year in 2025 free agency, but the money over the first four years would be exactly the same. To put it very simply: If Mitchell declines an extension, Koby Altman needs to think about trading him.

On the flip side, if Mitchell does accept the extension, the Cavs might need to turn towards trading Darius Garland. There was reporting immediately after Cleveland’s second-round ouster that Garland wanted to be traded if Mitchell was signed long-term. That seems to more about the two smaller guards not fitting great as a guard tandem, than it is about Garland being unhappy in Cleveland.

Whether it’s Mitchell or Garland leaving town, the Cavaliers should return a nice package of players and draft picks. Both guys are All-Star level guards, and there will be no shortage of teams sending Altman offers for either player. This is a chance to reset the roster, while also restocking the draft pick coffers after cleaning them out to acquire Mitchell.

Either way the Cavs go, it looks like we’re heading towards a backcourt breakup. And it might not be the only breakup on the roster.

Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley haven’t been bad as a frontcourt pairing. The Cavaliers have won at a pretty solid rate with the two big men in the lineup. But to take the next step from good team to great team, there’s a sense that Allen or Mobley may have to go.

Mobley is the younger player, and he’s probably in line for a max or near-max rookie scale extension. He’s also the more versatile player. In addition, Mobley held up fairly well as the Cavs starting center (and often only productive big) in the team’s second round series against Boston, which Allen missed due to injury. That performance may have Cleveland thinking about splitting up the double-big partnership and looking at a more traditional player for the power forward spot.

Allen has two years left on his contract, at a very friendly $20 million per year. Much like trading one of the guards, the Cavs should be in a good spot to return some solid talent for Allen.

As for re-signing any of their own free agents, Isaac Okoro is easily the most interesting player as a restricted free agent. Okoro has improved each season, and he’s a pretty solid 3&D wing at this point. That’s something Cleveland can certainly use, but the Cavaliers are in range of having to be very wary of the tax aprons.

Let’s say Okoro came back for $15 million, the Cavs can probably manage to stay under the aprons this coming season. But the year after, they’d have Okoro, plus big contracts for the presumably-extended Mitchell and Mobley, as well as several other players on the books. That’s pushing second apron territory.

A cap space team might not have real eyes on Okoro, because those teams don’t generally like tying up their cap space while restricted free agency plays out. But if one of them really saw him as the missing piece, they could craft an offer big enough to make Cleveland blink because of the impending apron issues. At the very least, if Okoro’s free agency is still lingering after the first wave or two, someone should use the Non-Taxpayer MLE as a tool to sign Okoro to an offer sheet. That’s a perfectly fair value, and right in the range where Cleveland would need to think about matching or not.

The team’s other free agents, Marcus Morris Sr., Tristan Thompson and Damian Jones, are all at the veteran minimum phases of their careers. If they want to return and the Cavs have open roster spots, minimum deals are what that trio are looking at.

We don’t spend a lot of time in these previews talking about two-way players who are free agents. However, we’re going to spend a moment on Emoni Bates, because he’s worth the Cavs trying to re-sign. Bates only turned 20 in January. He’s got a good size/skill combo. He wasn’t always the most efficient in the G League this past season, but the tools are all there.

At the very least, Bates should be back on another two-way deal. At most, Cleveland should consider giving him a standard contract and putting him on the roster, even if he spends a lot of time still developing in the G League.

Wrapped around all of this, is that the Cavaliers still need to hire a head coach. Whoever gets the top spot in Cleveland will have the task of integrating some new players, if trades happen as we think they may this summer. And there are expectations of winning attached to the job now too.

It’s a big summer for the Cleveland Cavaliers. They’ve taken steps forward over each of the last few years, but have decided that wasn’t enough. They need a new coach and have some major roster decisions to deal with, both their own and by some of their players. How this all comes together will likely determine how many more big decisions Koby Altman gets to make moving forward.

Orlando Magic

Offseason Approach: Using cap flexibility to add talent before extending the young core

Actual Cap Space: -$54.6M

Practical Cap Space: -$49.5M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $85.8M

Under Contract (9): FULL ROSTER
Cole Anthony, Paolo Banchero, Anthony Black, Wendell Carter Jr., Caleb Houstan (non-guaranteed), Jett Howard, Jonathan Isaac (non-guaranteed), Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner

Potential Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Goga Bitadze (unrestricted), Markelle Fultz (unrestricted), Gary Harris (unrestricted), Kevon Harris (restricted – two-way), Joe Ingles (unrestricted – team option), Chuma Okeke (restricted), Trevelin Queen (restricted – two-way), Admiral Schofield (unrestricted – two-way), Moritz Wagner (unrestricted – team option)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Room Exception ($8,006,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #18

Notable Extension Candidates: Wendell Carter Jr. (veteran extension), Markelle Fultz (veteran extension through June 30), Gary Harris (veteran extension through June 30), Caleb Houstan (veteran extension), Jonathan Isaac (veteran extension), Jalen Suggs (rookie scale extension), Franz Wagner (rookie scale extension)

Analysis: 

This offseason is about balance for the Orlando Magic. Orlando has to find balance on the court. Equally as important, the Magic have to find balance on the cap sheet.

After a big step-forward season, the future is brighter in Orlando than any point since Dwight Howard was traded. There is young talent in place, a terrific coach who has grown with the team, a front office that has been patient in letting everything come together and plenty of cap flexibility.

While all of that is great, it’s all also very temporary. Young talent doesn’t stay young. The coach will eventually max out his abilities. Patience will wear thin for the front office without continued results. And the cap flexibility will dry up quickest of all.

The Magic can create over $66 million in space this summer. They’ll probably settle just under $50 million in space, as it’s unlikely they’ll waive Jonathan Isaac to hit the most possible cap space.

Around $50 million in space to add pieces to a young core that includes Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs sounds pretty great. And it is. But the key is that Jeff Weltman and the front office are on the clock in a little with using that kind of cap space.

Wagner and Suggs are both up for rookie scale extensions this offseason that would start with the 2025-26 season. Banchero will be in the same boat a year from now, with a very likely max extension starting in 2026-27. If all three young players are extended, that will eat up most of the cap space for the Magic.

That means this summer through the summer of 2025, makes up the window for Orlando to add a big-name (read: high-salaried) player. After that, it’s going to be hard to fit in another big salary with an extended Banchero, Wagner and Suggs trio on the books.

But this is where the balance on the roster comes in. And it’s a pretty delicate one.

The Magic had a good season because they were a terrific defensive team. To take the next step, they need to get better offensively. Sitting in the bottom-third of the NBA in offense isn’t going to lead to a meaningful playoff run.

This is where Weltman has to be very careful. If you go acquire an offensive star that can’t defend, it can go sideways. If you don’t improve enough offensively to offset the drop-off defensively, you won’t see a whole lot of benefit. Right now, Orlando has an elite defense. Let’s say that drops off to around 10th in the NBA. If the offense doesn’t move up to near the middle of the pack, you’ve taken too much away from what made the team special.

Another factor to consider while trying to improve the offense is the balance of Banchero, Wagner and Suggs. Banchero was 17th in the league in usage, in a territory surrounded by other All-Stars. Wagner was 46th in usage, surrounded by guys who are best as second or third options. Suggs was right around the top-100 in usage, which is about right for guards who play alongside playmaking forward and wings.

Some popularly mentioned targets for Orlando are Trae Young (12th in usage), Anfernee Simons (27th in usage), Darius Garland (47th in usage) and Zach LaVine (likely would have ranked around 25th in usage).

Breaking those four guards down, we have different types of players, but all are illustrative. Young is a ball-dominant guy. He’d pull touches away from both Banchero and Wagner, never mind Suggs. They’d slot into second and third options and fourth on offense.

Simons might see his usage rate drop on a better team, but he’s still probably pushing Wagner down to the third offensive option. LaVine probably lands in a similar place, in between the Magic’s top two guys.

Garland is in a weird spot. One of the reasons he reportedly wants to be traded if Donovan Mitchell extends, is to get back to a bigger on-ball role. So, he’ll probably push Wagner down to the third option too. In any scenario Suggs becomes the fourth offensive option.

Why does this all matter? None of those guys are helping Orlando’s defense maintain its current elite status. All would improve the offense, but enough to offset the defensive drop-off? And enough so to be worth shuffling the current offensive hierarchy that would see Wagner or Suggs with lesser roles? That’s the question that Weltman and his staff would have to answer.

At the extreme other end of roster-building scenarios, the Magic could more or less run it back. They could retain Moe Wagner and Joe Ingles, either by picking up their options or re-signing them. They could re-sign Markelle Fultz and maybe even Gary Harris. Another year of growth from the young players, combined with continuity, likely keeps Orlando in the playoffs.

But the Magic should be thinking bigger. The goal is to go further than just making the playoffs. That’s why we’re talking about investing in trading for a star guard. There’s also free agency, but unless Paul George is coming to Orlando, there isn’t a star that is gettable as a free agent.

There’s also a chance that a trade comes from out of nowhere too. Maybe someone we aren’t talking about becomes available and the Magic can get in the bidding. Orlando has all of their own first-round picks, plus an extra pick coming from the Denver Nuggets. Cap space, some young talent and draft picks equals a pretty enticing trade package for any star that hits the market.

Expect the Magic to decline their team options for both Ingles and Moe Wagner, at least initially. Keeping both would take $19 million in cap space off the board, and that’s not good cap management. But declining the options doesn’t mean either of the veterans are definitely gone. Orlando could decline Wagner’s $8 million option and either hold some cap space or the Room Exception to give him the same salary after their other moves. Ingles was overpaid this season, despite having a great on- and off-court impact on a young team. He could be back for some remaining cap space, or on a veteran minimum deal.

As for Fultz and Harris, if the Magic are going big this summer, both guards will be playing elsewhere. There’s not a reasonable path that leads to a big addition, plus keeping either Fultz or Harris. With younger players already in place, plus a potential addition to the guard group, it’s time to move on.

Lastly, we circle back to Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs. Both players are extension-eligible this offseason. Orlando isn’t going to want to mess around with restricted free agency next summer. Not when a handful of teams might have enough cap space in 2025 to toss a max offer sheet at either Wagner or Suggs.

Wagner, by virtue of being the better offensive player, will likely get the bigger extension. Something in the range of $30 million AAV feels about right. For the Magic, a five-year, $150 million deal would be a win. Wagner may push for four years, in order to get back on the market a year earlier.

For Suggs, defense-first players don’t get paid as much. On the plus side for Suggs, he made major strides as an offensive player last season. Four years and $100 million should be the floor for him in an extension. Like with Wagner, Orlando could push to get a fifth year locked in, but we haven’t seen too many five-year rookie scale extensions that weren’t for the max.

This is a big summer for the Orlando Magic. They can add a star to the mix, but it has to be the right kind of star. Otherwise, the hierarchy that Jeff Weltman and Jamahl Mosley have built could get thrown out of whack. Getting the timing and balance correct of when and who to add is tricky. Getting that right will make all the difference for the Magic.

LA Clippers

Offseason Approach: Keeping a contender together as they open a new arena

Actual Cap Space: -$102.2M

Practical Cap Space: -$94.8M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $55.2M

Under Contract (8): FULL ROSTER
Kobe Brown, Amir Coffey, Bones Hyland, Kawhi Leonard, Terance Mann, Jordan Miller (two-way), Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac

Potential Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Brandon Boston Jr. (restricted), Moussa Diabate (restricted – two-way), Paul George (unrestricted – player option), James Harden (unrestricted), Kai Jones (unrestricted – team option), Xavier Moon (restricted – two-way), Mason Plumlee (unrestricted), Daniel Theis (unrestricted), P.J. Tucker (unrestricted – player option), Russell Westbrook (unrestricted – player option)

Dead Cap (1): Josua Primo ($1,000,000)

Projected Signing Exceptions:Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,681,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: None

Notable Extension Candidates: Brandon Boston Jr. (veteran extension through June 30), Amir Coffey (veteran extension), Paul George (veteran extension through June 30 if player option declined), Bones Hyland (rookie scale extension) Terance Mann (veteran extension), Norman Powell (veteran extension), P.J. Tucker (veteran extension through June 30 if player option declined), Ivica Zubac (veteran extension)

Analysis: 

After Kawhi Leonard extended in mid-January, it seemed like the 2024 offseason for the LA Clippers was going to be fairly ho-hum. The assumption was that an extension would follow for Paul George, James Harden would re-sign, a few other key vets would return and Lawrence Frank and crew would be filling out the bench with minimum signings.

Not so fast, my friend.

It’s been nearly five months since Leonard extended, and George hasn’t put pen to paper. There seems to be a fairly wide divide between what the All-Star wing wants and the Clippers offer.

A boring offseason is now potentially a lot more complex.

Everything doesn’t start and end with George, but it certainly starts with him. So, that’s where we’ll start too.

If the reporting around the situation is accurate, Paul George wants a max deal from the Clippers, either via an extension or by re-signing as a free agent this summer. The same reporting suggests that LA would like George to take something akin to the non-max extension (in terms of years and dollars) that Leonard signed. That’s a pretty wide gap and one worth exploring a bit further.

For functional purposes, due to the Over-38 rule, George is limited to a four-year deal, either via an extension or via re-signing as a free agent. The max George can get projects to be a four-year, $221 million extension. For reference, the extension that Leonard signed projects to be a three-year, $149.6 million extension. Even if we do three-year to three-year comparison, the Clippers are asking George to leave about $10 million on the table.

For George, he seems to be focused on locking in the maximum number of years he can, for the most possible money. And he has some leverage in that ask.

The Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic and Oklahoma City all loom as potential suitors for the All-Star wing. All four could be willing to do a max deal for George that would run as a four-year, $212 million contract. Again, about a $10 million difference from what George can get in his max deal from the Clippers.

There are a couple more factors to consider. The first thing to consider is that if George goes to free agency, he’d be negotiating a new deal, as opposed to an extension. That means he could ask for a negotiated no-trade clause in a contract from the Clippers. It’s possible that George gives up some money, or even that lucrative fourth year, in exchange for a no-trade clause.

Should LA do that? The advice here would be to just pay him the additional salary he’s looking for. No-trade clauses are so damaging to a player’s trade value, that you’d rather be on the hook to pay or find a trade for an additional year of salary at around $61 million. Big salaries get moved all the time, even when they are under water. A no-trade clause gives the player all the power, even if the team finds a trade they love.

The second consideration is what George’s status means for James Harden. If George is back (taking less money or not), Harden is probably looking at a semi-discounted salary. If George isn’t back, Harden has some leverage. He could ask LA to up his salary, citing savings from not re-signing George, plus a greater need to keep him around.

Most still expect George to stick around, along with Harden. That would keep the core of the roster together as the Clippers open their brand-new Intuit Dome to start next season.

Operating under that assumption, the rest of the offseason falls into place fairly simply. LA will look at trades, but they’ll be a second apron team. That will limit what they can do on the trade market. That increases the likelihood that several veterans are re-signed.

Russell Westbrook and Mason Plumlee become the key guys there. While both have their issues, Westbrook and Plumlee are productive reserves. And both can still scale up their games to start when necessary. Look for the Clippers to try and retain both players. If nothing else, they’ll be smallish, but tradable salaries.

P.J. Tucker is a virtual lock to opt in. LA will very likely pick up their option for Kai Jones, as they’ll want to work with him for a full season. Brandon Boston Jr. is a good bet to be re-signed, as he’s still got some untapped potential. And Daniel Theis could return as a solid third center on a minimum, or slightly above, contract.

That leaves a few non-George extensions to consider. Ivica Zubac and Terance Mann are the primary extension candidates. Both have become key starters for the Clippers. Expect both to get extension offers. If those offers are solid enough, they’ll extend. If not, both players will hit free agency in a pretty wide-open 2025 market.

Bones Hyland is up for a rookie scale extension. He’s had flashes of potential throughout his first few seasons in the NBA, but Hyland has yet to lock in a full-time role. Even at times when the Clippers needed an additional ballhandler due to injuries, Hyland didn’t take advantage. He’s likely to play out the season and hit free agency next summer.

The LA Clippers grand plan of becoming Los Angeles’ team hasn’t come to fruition. That was always ambitious, as the Lakers place in town was highly unlikely to be bumped. But the Clippers have never really come together as a title contender either.

Outside of a Western Conference Finals run in 2021, LA has come up short each year of the George/Leonard era. It seems like the plan is to run it back and to hope better health will lead to a deeper playoff run in their new building. But protecting themselves as much as possible long-term is key for the Clippers. Otherwise, this rickety roster could collapse to the bottom of a deep Western Conference.

Philadelphia 76ers

Offseason Approach: Going big around the two remaining stars

Actual Cap Space: -$109.4M

Practical Cap Space: $61.3M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $113.9M

Under Contract (3): FULL ROSTER
Ricky Council IV (non-guaranteed), Joel Embiid, Paul Reed (non-guaranteed)

Potential Free Agents (13): FULL LIST
Mo Bamba (unrestricted), Nicolas Batum (unrestricted), Robert Covington (unrestricted), Jeff Dowtin (restricted – team option), Tobias Harris (unrestricted), Buddy Hield (unrestricted), Kyle Lowry (unrestricted), Kenyon Martin Jr. (unrestricted), Tyrese Maxey (restricted), De’Anthony Melton (unrestricted), Kelly Oubre Jr. (unrestricted), Cameron Payne (unrestricted), Terquavion Smith (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Room Exception ($8,006,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #16

Notable Extension Candidates: Joel Embiid (veteran extension), Robert Covington (veteran extension through June 30), Tobias Harris (veteran extension through June 30), Buddy Hield (veteran extension through June 30), Kenyon Martin Jr. (veteran extension through June 30), De’Anthony Melton (veteran extension through June 30)

Analysis: 

Full disclosure: Your intrepid author of these offseason previews has a pretty simple dream. He wants to see a team with a fully clean cap sheet someday. No salaries, no cap holds, nothing on the books but 12 roster charges.

This summer’s Philadelphia 76ers are about as close as we’ll probably ever get.

Joel Embiid has the lone fully guaranteed contract on Philadelphia’s books right now. They could hit the summer with only Embiid’s $51.4 million on the cap sheet and nearly $77 million in cap space. But it won’t go that way.

For one, the Sixers aren’t about to renounce Tyrese Maxey. Daryl Morey could have extended Maxey last summer, and it would have been just fine. Instead, both sides agreed to delay, knowing Philadelphia was still going to come with a max deal this summer. Now, instead of Maxey being on the books at just over $35 million, he’ll be on a cap hold of just over $13 million. That’s an additional $22 million of space to use this summer. Once that space is used, Maxey will ink a 25% of the cap max deal starting at just over $35 million. Everybody wins.

We’re also projecting that the Sixers will keep Ricky Council IV on his non-guaranteed contract. Council only saw limited time last season, but he showed enough on his two-way contract to land a long-term deal. In addition, his $1.9 million contract is only about $800 thousand more than minimum roster charge. That $800 thousand shouldn’t be needed for a signing or trade. That means we are projecting Council stays too.

The only other item we have on the 76ers books is the $4 million cap hold for the 16th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. We don’t project trades when doing offseason projections, so that cap hold stays for now. However, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Morey got off that pick at or after the draft (Philadelphia can’t officially trade the pick until after making the selection because of the Stepien Rule).

That leaves Embiid and Council as salary, and cap holds for Maxey and the 16th pick on the books. That puts the Sixers at just over $61 million in cap space. That’s the second-highest projection in the NBA, behind the bottom-dwelling Detroit Pistons.

What can Morey do with $61 million (plus the $8 million Room Exception)? The better question is: What can’t Morey do with $61 million (plus the $8 million Room Exception)?

Philadelphia has been, or will be, linked to basically every possible available player this summer, minus James Harden, for very obvious reasons. There isn’t a player they couldn’t trade for with that kind of cap space. And the 35% of the cap max salary for next season projects to be $49.35 million. That means there isn’t a free agent that Philadelphia can’t offer a maximum salary to.

It’s not a lot of fun to write an offseason preview that says “Philadelphia can do just about anything this summer, but we have no idea what they’ll do”, but that’s kind of where we’re at.

Do they want to sign Paul George? They can offer him as much as anyone who isn’t the LA Clippers. Trade for Jimmy Butler? Sure, they can fit in his salary with ease. Sign four or five players for $10 million to $25 million apiece and build a bunch of depth around Embiid and Maxey? Now we’re talking.

It’s not that signing a max free agent or trading for a third All-Star are bad plans. They aren’t. It just has to be the right third star.

Embiid has a well-chronicled injury history. He’s going to miss time each year. If an injury pops up at the wrong time, it could sink the Sixers season. We’ve unfortunately seen that story play out before.

Signing George or trading for Butler would be splashy moves. They could even be great moves. But those two are both older and have their own injury issues. If Embiid went down, and either George or Butler was to follow suit, the season would be sunk.

If Philadelphia could get a third star that was a lock to play 70-plus games and make it through a long playoff run, they should do it. But those players aren’t usually available. And the 76ers tradable assets are running a little low right now.

The less risky approach is to build out the team’s depth. Embiid and Maxey are All-Stars, and that’s underselling the duo. They could be All-NBA guys. They’ll carry a well-built roster without needing a third star to help.

If Philadelphia goes the depth route, they’ll be ahead of the game for most of the free agents available. They can offer starting spots, minutes, shots, rotation roles and, of course, money. Given that they’ll need basically everything except for a starting center and a starting point guard, it becomes a game of “scan the free agent lists and take your pick”.

One suggestion…The 76ers should prioritize signing a good to very good center to act as a backup. In a perfect world, they’ll have overspent for a 15-minute-per-game backup. In a more realistic world, they’ll have someone who can step in and provide solid minutes, should Embiid go down. This offseason, those candidates are old friend Andre Drummond, Goga Bitadze, Moe Wagner (if Orlando lets him get away) or Jalen Smith (if he opts out). Even Jonas Valanciunas makes sense, if Philadelphia was really ok with spending for the luxury of high-end backup for Embiid, and if Valanciunas can’t land starting spot elsewhere.

We’re going to hear the Philadelphia 76ers connected to ever major player in the rumor mill, be it free agency or trade. That’s what happens when you have stars already in place, money to spend and you’re a readymade contender. Now, it’s up to Daryl Morey to deliver after a year of planning for a big offseason.

Milwaukee Bucks

Offseason Approach: Adding depth to support an older, injury-prone core

Actual Cap Space: -$63.5M

Practical Cap Space: -$61.6M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$14.5M

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MarJon Beauchamp, Pat Connaughton, Justin Galloway (two-way), A.J. Green (non-guaranteed), Andre Jackson Jr. ($945,929 guaranteed), Damian Lillard, Chris Livingston, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, Ryan Rollins (two-way)

Potential Free Agents (6): FULL LIST
Thanasis Antetokounmpo (unrestricted), Malik Beasley (unrestricted), Patrick Beverley (unrestricted), Jae Crowder (unrestricted), Danilo Gallinari (unrestricted), TyTy Washington Jr. (unrestricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Taxpayer MLE ($5,183,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #23

Notable Extension Candidates: Pat Connaughton (veteran extension), Bobby Portis (veteran extension)

Analysis: 

The Milwaukee Bucks fell short of expectations last season. Injuries were a major part of that, but the roster never quite came together as realized. This offseason is about rest, recovery and adding depth around an older, injury-prone core.

That sounds simple enough, but actually pulling it off is going to be a chore. The Bucks don’t have a lot of tools to work with to find that depth. They are a first-apron team entering the offseason, but are functionally a second-apron team. Milwaukee only has about $1.9 million clearance under the second apron with five roster spots to fill.

That means the Bucks are down to trades (but without aggregating salaries on the outward-bound side and with only 100% salary-matching), re-signing their own free agents, signing their draft picks and signing players to minimum contracts.

Now, that’s not necessarily a huge issue. The Bucks have four solid starters and between two and five solid reserves already in the fold. That bench count includes Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton as the guaranteed performers, and the rest largely depends on how you feel about Andre Jackson Jr., A.J. Green and MarJon Beauchamp.

Let’s split the difference and say the Bucks have seven rotation spots filled (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez as starters, and Portis, Connaughton and one of the younger players as reserves).

That means Milwaukee needs to re-sign or add a starting level shooting guard, as well as some additional bench depth.

Looking at incumbent options, Malik Beasley and Patrick Beverley should both be candidates to return. However, Beasley might have outplayed a minimum (or a slight bump off the minimum using Non-Bird rights). Beasley started most of the season and scored 11.3 point per game on career-best shooting from behind the arc. That should get him more than minimum offers. It’s also possible he’s found a home in Milwaukee and is willing to play the one-more-on-the-minimum game until the Bucks can take care of him next summer with Early Bird rights. That’s what Milwaukee should be hoping, at least.

Beverley is fully into the veteran minimum phase of his career now. He was pretty solid for the Bucks. He’s still a pesky defender and he can make an open jumper now and then. Beverley is also regarded as a good leader and he’s a Doc Rivers favorite. So, don’t rule out him coming back.

As for the team’s other free agents, it’s 50-50 (at best) on whether any will be back. Jae Crowder lost playing time as the year went along. Danilo Gallinari barely played and looked like he’s close to the end of his career when he did. Thanasis Antetokounmpo likely would have gotten another minimum deal to be an end-of-the-bench cheerleader, but he’s likely to miss all of next season after tearing his Achilles in an offseason workout.

That means the Bucks will have a few roster spots to fill. They’ll get another vet or two to sign on, because Milwaukee is a title contender and has minutes to offer. Jon Horst and staff should be targeting another big, at least for regular season minutes. There’s no reason to tax Antetokounmpo, Lopez and Portis more than is necessary. There should be no shortage of options for veteran big men on minimum contracts.

The Bucks could use a real backup point guard. The same principle applies of not putting too much on Lillard in the regular season. Beverly can sort of fill that role, but he’s not a ballhandler or playmaker. Aaron Holiday, Dennis Smith Jr., Delon Wright or Jordan McLaughlin would all be good options.

And, like every team, Milwaukee could use more wing depth, especially if Beasley leaves. If he was willing to play for the minimum, Evan Fournier could be a good get. Alec Burks would also fit. Assuming he opts out and wouldn’t mind returning to the Midwest, Eric Gordon would be a nice addition. If the Bucks wanted to go a little younger, they could go after someone like Lonnie Walker IV or Talen-Horton Tucker. All of those guys could be available for the minimum, after money dries up elsewhere.

Then, we have the draft. In a lot of cases, a team in the Bucks position will look to move draft picks to bring in veterans. Given how hard it will be for Milwaukee to reasonably match salary, and how they are already out future picks, keeping their picks this year has real importance.

The Bucks need to add depth. Generally, a team with Milwaukee’s goals doesn’t need to be 10 or 12 players deep, because the rotation will get cut in the playoffs. However, being that deep should be a goal for the Bucks. Their core guys are all older and injury-prone. They need solid backups in place to navigate the regular season and to be healthy and not worn out by the postseason.

Because they are contenders, Milwaukee should also be open to selecting older players at the draft. Think about players who could step in and play 15-20 minutes right away. The Bucks have both the 23rd and 33rd picks. They could add two potential contributors in this year’s draft, and should be considering doing exactly that.

There are no easy answers for the Milwaukee Bucks this summer. To make a major move, they’d have to trade a core rotation player. That doesn’t seem very likely. That means filling out the roster by re-signing a couple of veterans, luring a couple more, hoping the kids on the roster improve and nailing the draft. That’s easier said than done, but such is life as an older, injury-prone second-apron team.

Miami Heat

Offseason Approach: Retooling the roster to make another run

Actual Cap Space: -$69.0M

Practical Cap Space: -$62.2M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$2.2M

Under Contract (8): FULL ROSTER
Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, Duncan Robinson, Orlando Robinson (non-guaranteed), Terry Rozier III

Potential Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Thomas Bryant (unrestricted – player option), Jamal Cain (restricted – two-way), Haywood Highsmith (unrestricted), Kevin Love (unrestricted – player option), Caleb Martin (unrestricted – player option), Patty Mills (unrestricted), Josh Richardson (unrestricted – player option), Cole Swider (restricted – two-way), Alondes Williams (restricted – two-way), Delon Wright (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Taxpayer MLE ($5,183,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Victor Oladipo ($9,450,000), Max Strus ($7,243,842), Kyle Lowry ($6,477,319)

First Round Draft Picks: #15

Notable Extension Candidates: Bam Adebayo (veteran extension), Jimmy Butler (veteran extension), Haywood Highsmith (veteran extension through June 30), Caleb Martin (veteran extension), Duncan Robinson (veteran extension), Terry Rozier III (veteran extension as of July 30)

Analysis: 

The Miami Heat have sort of settled into a routine. They take the regular season semi-seriously and battle a bunch of injuries, before finishing in the Play-In Tournament. Then, depending on how serious those injuries are, the Heat make a postseason run or get bounced in the first round of the playoffs.

It’s not really a sustainable way of playing, but it seems to work for Miami more often than not. However, this particular Heat team has some real roster decisions to make to even maintain that status.

In recent years, Miami has been aggressive about retaining their own players. They’ve extended their own draftees and re-signed other key players. That approach has worked to keep the Heat in contender status most years. But now, Miami is left with an older roster, a mixed-bag of trade assets and a kind of messy cap sheet.

If a star player is available this summer, it’s a guarantee the Heat will be involved in the conversation. That’s just sort of how it works at this point. Miami has become the east coast version of the Los Angeles Lakers: a warm-weather city that players love to live in, a history of winning, expectations of contending and a team that will generally pay to get there.

The challenge for the Heat? They’ll be offering a pretty similar trade package to the one that failed to acquire Damian Lillard last offseason. Player-wise, the offer will be headlined by Tyler Herro or Terry Rozier III (or maybe both) and possibly Duncan Robinson. Draft pick-wise, the Heat can get to three first-round picks, with a little creativity.

Maybe this year the trade partner won’t be a team that is already heavy with guard talent. Maybe a third team can be more-easily pulled into helping to make a deal. But it’s still a good, but oft-injured player on a semi-large contract and/or an aging guard and some likely middle-of-the-road draft picks.

But we might be getting ahead of ourselves a bit. In a bit of a flipped situation, the Heat may be dealing with a veteran of their own who may not be as enamored of where he is.

There are rumblings that Jimmy Butler wants an extension. That’s not at all strange. He’s extension-eligible this summer, so he’d love to add some security as he approaches the latter stage of his career.

What is weird is that Butler seems to be at least sending some signals that if he’s not extended, he’d like to be traded to a team that will take care of him. And there was a bit of a bizarre moment during Pat Riley’s end-of-season press conference where he took a shot at his veteran star being unavailable for this year’s playoffs.

If Butler is on the table, that changes what the Heat could offer in a star-for-star swap. Even as moves into his age-35 season, Butler holds a ton of value. He’s still a good scorer and playmaker, solid defender and he still raises his game when it counts. For a team that is close to contention, he’s the kind of guy that could push them over the top.

Finding a team where Butler fits, but can also deliver a star back to Miami is a bit tricky. But, hey, that’s what three-team deals are for, right? The main point is that if Butler is available via trade, it drastically changes the math on what the Heat can do to reset the roster.

Of Miami’s known offseason decisions, they’ve got a bunch of players with options. Kevin Love is likely to pick up his $4 million option, because he’s not going to see that much in free agency. Because Josh Richardson is coming off a serious shoulder injury, and he loves being in Miami, he’ll likely pick up his $3 million option too.

Thomas Bryant is probably more of a 50-50 decision. His option is only slightly above a minimum deal, and he didn’t see much playing time with the Heat.

Caleb Martin is the only player who seems certain to opt out. That doesn’t mean he’ll leave Miami, but Martin is in position to cash in. He’s one of the better 3&D wing options available this summer. At least the Non-Taxpayer MLE should be in play for Martin, which would nearly double his current salary. If the Heat want to keep Martin, they’re going to have to pay to do so.

Miami is in a similar situation with Haywood Highsmith. He’s an unrestricted free agent, and Highsmith has established himself as a solid combo forward for a playoff team. He made 39.6% of this three-pointers this season, while providing good defense and improved ballhandling and passing. Highsmith isn’t going to break the bank, but a contract in the range of $8 to $10 million AAV could be in the offing for him.

Veteran guards Patty Mills and Delon Wright are in the veteran minimum phase of their careers. Mills may be done, but we’ll see what he does at this summer’s Olympics before we fully call it. Wright can still contribute, but he’s more of a depth option now than a key rotation player.

Jamal Cain is the best of the two-way players, but Alondes Williams is an interesting player too. If Miami has an open roster spot, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see either snag it. If not, Cain and/or Williams could be back for another year on two-way deals.

Beyond Butler’s extension desires, it’s unlikely anyone else ends up getting extended. Bam Adebayo is extension-eligible, but he’s best off rolling it over another year and seeing if he can get himself eligible for a super max contract by making All-NBA or winning Defensive Player of the Year.

At the draft, assuming they keep the selection, pick whatever slightly older and/or undervalued prospect you like best in the middle of the draft and drop them on the Heat. And it’s a good bet that player will end up a rotation contributor before the end of their rookie season. Miami is one of the premier development teams in the league, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic are just the two most recent stories.

The Miami Heat have a complicated offseason. They want to contend, and some of the pieces are in place. But there are real questions. Do they have enough to trade for a star? What happens with Jimmy Butler? How deep into the tax are they willing to go to retain some key rotation players on new contracts? Pat Riley and staff have work to do to give Erik Spoelstra a roster he can mold into a Finals contender.

New Orleans Pelicans

Offseason Approach: Adding to the roster, while minding the tax line

Actual Cap Space: -$59.1M

Practical Cap Space: -$56.4M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $13.6M

Under Contract (11): FULL ROSTER
Dyson Daniels, Jordan Hawkins, Malcolm Hill (two-way), Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, E.J. Liddell, C.J. McCollum, Trey Murphy III, Larry Nance Jr., Matt Ryan (non-guaranteed), Zion Williamson ($18.4 million guaranteed)

Potential Free Agents (6): FULL LIST
Jose Alvarado (restricted – team option), Naji Marshall (unrestricted), Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (restricted – team option), Dereon Seabron (restricted – two-way), Jonas Valanciunas (unrestricted), Cody Zeller (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,681,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Kira Lewis Jr. ($5,722,116)

First Round Draft Picks: #21 (The Pelicans have a June 1 deadline to take the Lakers pick at #17 or to defer the pick to next season without any protections)

Notable Extension Candidates: Brandon Ingram (veteran extension), Naji Marshall (veteran extension through June 30), C.J. McCollum (veteran extension as of September 26), Trey Murphy III (rookie scale extension), Larry Nance Jr. (veteran extension as of October 1), Jonas Valanciunas (veteran extension through June 30)

Analysis: 

The New Orleans Pelicans had a good season, despite some ill-timed injuries. The first can be celebrated to an extent, but the latter remains a challenge for a team that has yet to make the jump from good to great.

Now, the Pelicans face an offseason with some uncertainty. Several key players are up for new contracts, either directly or via extensions. That has everything feeling a bit tenuous at the moment in New Orleans.

Starting with the positives, Zion Williamson made it through the season relatively unscathed until a somewhat freak hamstring injury waylaid him for the playoffs. After some injury-marred years, which caused his contract to flip to being partially guaranteed, Williamson played at an All-Star level this season.

Having their star show he can hold up gives the Pelicans some very needed certainty heading into making some big roster decisions. They can feel good about deciding who fits with Williamson, as opposed to him being a “what if” to plan around.

The most important of those decisions involves Brandon Ingram. He’s wrapping up the max deal he re-signed with New Orleans in the summer of 2020. Ingram is likely starting extension negotiations by asking for another max deal. Does that make sense for the Pelicans?

For all the consternation about Williamson’s missed games, Ingram set a career-high in games played with the Pels last season at 64. That was the second-most games Ingram has ever played in a regular season.

A team can have one oft-injured player on a max deal. If you have two, you probably won’t have the necessary depth to survive the inevitable missed time.

Beyond the injuries, there’s the question of fit for Ingram. Before the Pelicans got C.J. McCollum, and when Williamson was out, Ingram was terrific as a heliocentric All-Star. He could have the ball a lot, while carrying the offense. With everyone healthy, the New Orleans offense feels like a bit like a Little League lineup where everyone gets a turn at bat and has to play a couple of innings in the field.

Ingram has proven to be a less-than-perfect off-ball player. He’s an inconsistent shooter, and he tends to sort of float when he’s not involved in the primary action.

However, Ingram is also a guy who averaged 21/5/6 on over 49% shooting from the field. Those guys aren’t just hanging around looking for jobs.

There’s an additional challenge with extending Ingram: Trey Murphy III is ready. Ready to start. Ready for more minutes. Ready for a bigger role in the offense. Ready to get paid himself.

In a world where the luxury tax doesn’t exist (note: the Pelicans have never paid the tax in franchise history), you would extend both Ingram and Murphy and have an embarrassment of riches at the forward position. But the tax, and the various restrictions that puts on a team, does exist.

If the Pelicans are ready to extend Murphy (more on him in a bit), and they have reservations on Ingram, then it’s time to look at trading the former All-Star. Could New Orleans turn Ingram’s expiring $36 million contract and draft compensation into an All-Star-level player at a different position? Sure. Could they flip Ingram and break his deal up into depth across several positions? That’s also a possibility.

Mostly, it feels like we’ve hit an inflection point with Ingram and the Pelicans. He’s a very good player, but he’s not a great one. His fit is a little wonky, and there’s a replacement already on the roster. It might be time to say adieu.

As for Murphy, the Pelicans need to get an extension done with him, barring a 2025 cap space plan that is more realistic than many might think. As stated above, Murphy is ready, even overdue, for an even bigger role in New Orleans.

Murphy is a terrific shooter, both on-ball and off the catch. He can credibly defend 2-4, while also being a better-than-you-think rebounder. And he’s only turning 24 years old this summer. There’s still some untapped upside left for Murphy.

He hasn’t shown enough to get a max extension. But something in the range of $25 to $30 million AAV over four or five years makes a lot of sense for Murphy and the Pelicans.

Now, there is another path here. A year ago, the Philadelphia 76ers chose not to extend Tyrese Maxey. The idea was to let him hit restricted free agency with a relatively small cap hold. That will open up additional cap space for the Sixers this summer.

The Pelicans could do the same thing with Murphy. Being conservative, if New Orleans let Murphy’s extension ride, with plans to re-sign him in the summer of 2025, they could open up $35 to $40 million in cap space. However, unlike with the 76ers, who were already sitting on mostly expiring contracts aside from Joel Embiid, the Pels aren’t in the same place. They’ve got some additional money on the books, mostly in the form of McCollum.

Because of the above, expect Murphy to sign an extension and for the Pelicans to work the trade market as their main means of upgrading.

Of the team’s free agents, expect New Orleans to pick up their team option for Jose Alvarado. He’s a good rotation player, and he’s on a barely-above minimum deal. Given the Pelicans are dancing around the tax line, having Alvarado back on the cheap is more critical than dealing with his unrestricted free agency in 2025.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is more of a 50-50 situation, same with Matt Ryan, who is on a non-guaranteed deal. Both are nice deep bench guys, and they aren’t making much more than a minimum deal. For now, we’ll say both of them are staying too. Their futures are likely tied more to roster spots than finances.

That leaves Jonas Valanciunas and Naji Marshall as the big free agent decisions. Valanciunas was open about wanting an extension, but it never came. Or, at least, it hasn’t yet. Maybe before the June 30 extension deadline, both New Orleans and Valanciunas will have a better idea of what free agency holds.

If Valanciunas is back, expect it to be on a short-term deal of one or two years. If it’s a two-year deal, expect the Pelicans to have some team control on that second season. Valanciunas is a rugged rebounder and interior scorer. The former is in short supply in New Orleans. The latter starts to overlap with Williamson, and Valanciunas never became the three-point threat that it looked like he might. If New Orleans can do a deal worth a maximum of $15 million per season, with an option or non-guaranteed second season, they should do it. If it stretches beyond that number, it’s time to explore other options at the five.

As for Marshall, he’s likely to get squeezed out. Murphy and Herb Jones are the future on the wing. Ingram might still be around. We’re waiting to see what Dyson Daniels and Jordan Hawkins become. All of that means there probably isn’t room for Marshall. The good news is that if teams believe Marshall is really the 38.7% three-pointer shooter he was this past season, he’ll have lots of offers as a 3&D wing with size.

Finally, the draft could deliver some help. New Orleans won’t be in range to select one of the top bigs, but they are range to pick a solid big man. Players like Zach Edey, Yves Missi, DaRon Holmes II and Kel’el Ware could all be on the board. Edey is the most ready to step in and contribute Day 1, but the others are solid developmental options. As for the Los Angeles Lakers pick at #17, the Pelicans are expected to defer receiving that pick until the 2025 NBA Draft. At worst, that pick will move down a handful of spots in a much deeper draft. At best, the wheels come off for the Lakers, and New Orleans has a bonus lottery pick in a deep draft. Plus, it keeps a bit of money off this year’s cap sheet by deferring.

All of the decisions we’ve seen coming for the New Orleans Pelicans are here now. What David Griffin and the front office choose to do this summer will set the Pelicans on a course for the next several years. It’s important that they get this right, or we’ll be left wondering if this team will ever go from good to great.

Phoenix Suns

Offseason Approach: Rebuilding the rotation with limited resources

Actual Cap Space: -$100.4M

Practical Cap Space: -$97.2M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$28.7M

Under Contract (7): FULL ROSTER
Grayson Allen, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Nassir Little, Jusuf Nurkic, David Roddy

Potential Free Agents (11): FULL LIST
Udoka Azubuike (unrestricted – two-way), Bol Bol (unrestricted), Drew Eubanks (unrestricted – player option), Eric Gordon (unrestricted – player option), Damion Lee (unrestricted – player option), Saben Lee (unrestricted – two-way), Josh Okogie (unrestricted – player option), Royce O’Neale (unrestricted), Isaiah Thomas (unrestricted), Ishmail Wainright (restricted – two-way), Thaddeus Young (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:None (due to being over the second apron)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #22

Notable Extension Candidates: Kevin Durant (veteran extension), Jusuf Nurkic (veteran extension), Royce O’Neale (veteran extension through June 30)

Analysis: 

The Phoenix Suns are the first real test we’ve had of a team dealing with the second apron. The Suns underachieved in the regular, were bounced quickly in the first round of the playoffs and have to rebuild the rotation around their stars.

The catch? Phoenix has really limited resources to rebuild the rotation with.

The Suns have seven players with guaranteed contracts for next season. Those players combine to make a projected $194 million. The second apron is projected to be $189.5 million. That means Phoenix is over the second apron with half of the roster left to fill out.

Ouch.

As a reminder, here are the things a team over the second apron can NOT do:

  • Use signing exceptions like the Taxpayer MLE (Non-Taxpayer MLE and Bi-Annual Exception are effectively lost after going over the first apron)
  • Acquire a player via sign-and-trade (same as a first apron team)
  • Send out cash in trade (no more buying draft picks)
  • Aggregate player salaries together on the outgoing side of a trade (can’t combine $18 million plus $7 million to acquire $25 million)
  • Take back more than 100% in salary-matching in a trade (no buffer is allowed, same as a first apron team)
  • Sign a buyout player who made more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE on their previous contract (same as a first apron team)
  • Acquire a player via TPE if that TPE was created via signing-and-trading a player away (no trading a $20M player into cap space to create a $20M TPE to be used later)
  • No using a TPE that was created the prior season
  • There are also “frozen draft pick” rules, but none of those will impact a team immediately, so we’ll table that for now

Basically, a second apron team can do the following:

  • Re-sign their own free agents to the extent allowed by their level of Bird rights
  • Sign their own draft picks
  • Sign players to minimum contracts
  • Acquire players via trade where they send out no more than one player (however, they can send out one player and acquire more than one player back, provided the players coming in make no more salary than the player being sent out)

So, where does that leave the Suns? With a lot of work to do, and not many resources to do that work with.

Phoenix already extended Grayson Allen. That deal was fine, both from value and production standpoints. Allen was arguably the best shooter in the NBA last season, and he fit nicely as a playmaker for the Suns too. He held up fine defensively in the regular season, even if the playoffs were a bit of a different story.

Now, the Suns have to figure out what to do with the rest of the roster. Royce O’Neale is the team’s primary free agent. He was good for Phoenix after the trade deadline. He’s a bit bigger than the traditional 3&D guy, as O’Neale can credibly defend both forward positions. He made $9.5 million this season. Normally, we’d say he’s due a slight raise, but it would benefit Phoenix to get a little creative here.

Remember that the Suns can’t take back more money than they send out in trades. Because of that, they’d do well to overpay O’Neale a little bit, if for no other reason than to create a little extra tradable salary. We’re not talking about giving O’Neale $20+ million, as they would tip towards being a bad contract.

Instead, if O’Neale’s real value is something like $10 million, the Suns could probably pay him up to $15 million without things getting sideways on them. Another option would be to pay O’Neale the exact amount of whatever the Non-Taxpayer MLE gets set at for next season (right now that projects to be about $12.9 million). Because teams can now use the MLE as a trade exception, that would make O’Neale even more acquirable for a lot of the league.

The main takeaway: Phoenix needs to re-sign O’Neale. He’s too important to let him just walk, and they need the tradable salary moving forward.

The rest of the team’s free agents are coming off minimum or near-minimum deals. Damion Lee missed the entirety of the season, so he’s likely to pick up his $2.8 million option. Drew Eubanks, Eric Gordon and Josh Okogie will all likely opt out. But the Suns should pursue re-signing Eubanks and Gordon to 1+1 minimum deals again next season. For Okogie, Phoenix actually has his Early Bird rights. They could bump his contract up some for next season. Again, this is about creating some tradable salary. Something in the range of $5 to $8 million would likely work out fine on a short-term deal for Okogie.

Bol Bol remains an enigma. For a week or two, he looks like a key rotation guy. Then he looks barely playable for the rest of the month. If he wants to return on a minimum deal, fine. But the Suns should be looking to upgrade with more reliable backup forward option.

Isaiah Thomas and Thaddeus Young will probably be elsewhere, if they’re playing anywhere next season. We’re getting close to the end of the line for both veterans.

As much as Phoenix has downplayed the draft in recent years, it’s important that they try to find a rotation player with the 22nd overall pick. Or, more likely, the Suns will move that pick right after they make it. Reminder: The Stepien Rule, which limits trading first-round picks in back-to-back seasons, only looks forward. As soon as a pick has been made, the team can move that pick without issue.

Beyond the above, Phoenix doesn’t seem likely to find a workable trade that sends out Jusuf Nurkic. Also, he should be a good fit in the schemes that new head coach Mike Budenholzer preferred at past stops.

That means the Suns are shopping on the minimum market again. Because they have the three stars in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, they’ll be able to pull in a veteran or two to play with them. But, much like this year, it’s going to be hard to find true difference makers on minimum deals. Mostly, Phoenix will pick up some innings-eaters that can fill regular season roles.

The second apron was designed to prevent, or punish, the most expensive teams. Now, the full weight of the second apron rules is kicking in for the first time. The Phoenix Suns are a fascinating, living example of how a top-heavy team will deal with the restrictions. The entire league will be watching to see how the Suns navigate these uncharted waters.

Sacramento Kings

Offseason Approach: Re-sign Malik Monk, fine-tune the rotation

Actual Cap Space: -$38.5M

Practical Cap Space: -$34.7M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $15.1M

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER
Harrison Barnes, Chris Duarte, Keon Ellis, De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Colby Jones, Mason Jones (two-way), Trey Lyles, Davion Mitchell, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis, Sasha Vezenkov

Potential Free Agents (6): FULL LIST
Kessler Edwards (restricted), Jordan Ford (restricted – two-way), Alex Len (unrestricted), JaVale McGee (unrestricted), Malik Monk (unrestricted), Jalen Slawson (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,681,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #13

Notable Extension Candidates: Chris Duarte (rookie scale extension), De’Aaron Fox (veteran extension), Kevin Huerter (veteran extension as of October 1), Davion Mitchell (rookie scale extension)

Analysis: 

There may be no simpler offseason preview to write than the Sacramento Kings. They either re-sign Malik Monk and fill in the remaining spots with players on minimum contracts. Or the Kings lose Monk to a bigger offer than they can give him, and they use the Non-Taxpayer MLE to try and find a replacement.

It’s really that simple. But in that simplicity, things are far more complex.

Everything orbits around Monk, so we’ll start there. The Kings only have Early Bird rights for Monk, as he’s completing a two-year contract. That limits Sacramento offering him a four-year deal that maxes out around $78 million. That’s an AAV of about $19.4 million per season. Not bad, right?

Not so fast, my friend.

Monk could, and likely should, have won Sixth Man of the Year. The seventh-year guard averaged 15.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and an impressive 5.1 assists in 26 minutes per game off the Sacramento bench. He shot 44% from the field, including 35% from deep.

Monk set himself up to challenge just how much teams will pay for a bench guard. And that’s not great news for the Kings.

Of the cap space teams, Monk would be immediately plug-and-play for any of them. Outside of maybe the Utah Jazz, who already have Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton playing the role he would play, Monk is a wonderful fit with any team. It’s very easy to envision the Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs or Detroit Pistons offering Monk a deal that starts north of $20 million and has an AAV up to $25 million per season.

Essentially, Monk will be choosing between a place where he’s found a home and become beloved by teammates and fans, and cashing in on a huge deal for the first time in his career. That’s not an easy decision.

However, the Kings and Monk might be able to maneuver to keep him in Sacramento long-term, while also getting him paid.

Early Bird rights deals are limited in first-year salary to 175% of the previous salary or 105% of the league's average salary. For Monk, since he made less than the average salary last season, we're working off the 105% of the average salary number. He's right on the tipping point, and the math is almost exactly the same. That projects to be somewhere in the range of $17.4 million. (This exact figure won’t be known until final numbers for the 2024-25 season are set.)

Another quirk of contracts using Early Bird rights is that they have to be for at least two seasons in length, with a maximum of up to four years. Let’s break down what this means for Monk.

Re-signing with Kings on a four-year deal using Early Bird rights, with 8% raises, projects like this:

2024-25: $17.4 million

2025-26: $18.7 million

2026-27: $20.1 million

2027-28: $21.5 million

Total: Four years, $77.7 million

Signing with another team for $100 million over four years, with 5% raises, could look like this:

2024-25: $23.3 million

2025-26: $24.4 million

2026-27: $25.6 million

2027-28: $26.7 million

Total: Four years, $100 million

As you can see, that’s a pretty massive difference for Monk. But there is a workaround for the Kings and Monk.

Early Bird rights contracts have to run for at least two seasons. But nothing says that they have to run longer than two years. Let’s say Monk and Sacramento were to sign a two-year, $36.1 million deal, which is the first two years of the Early Bird option laid out above). Now, Monk could play out the two years and become a free agent again in 2026. The difference then? The Kings would have full Bird rights for Monk. At that point, Sacramento can sign him to whatever salary they agree on, up to his maximum salary.

Here's what those four years, over two separate two-year deals, for $100 million could look like using the above process:

2024-25: $17.4 million (Year 1 using Early Bird rights)

2025-26: $18.7 million (Year 2 using Early Bird rights)

2026-27: $30.7 million (Year 1 using Bird rights)

2027-28: $33.2 million (Year 2 using Bird rights)

Total: Four years, $100 million

The total salary is the same over the same four-year period. It just bumps up in the final two seasons, compared to signing elsewhere for $100 million this summer. And, of course, in the summer of 2026, the Kings could add up to five years in a contract for Monk. We’re just using two-years to keep the comparison over the same period of time, as what he can sign for this summer.

Now, to be fair, this process would have to include some wink-wink stuff, along with a good deal of trust between the Kings and Monk. But there is recent precedence. When the Milwaukee Bucks had Bobby Portis coming off a deal for the Bi-Annual Exception, they re-signed him to a new two-year deal using his Non-Bird rights, which he opted out. They repeated the process a year later, and re-signed him to a new deal using his Early Bird rights.

Given Monk’s importance to the team, and how comfortable he seems to be in Sacramento, don’t be surprised if there’s an understanding of how he can get paid fairly to stick around. Even if that process involves a few shenanigans to get there.

If Monk leaves, the Kings will have the full Non-Taxpayer MLE to chase a replacement. This is a good year to be in the market for bench scoring/shooting. Players like Buddy Hield, Gary Trent Jr., Gary Harris, Malik Beasley, Luke Kennard, De’Anthony Melton, Caleb Martin, Gordon Hayward or Royce O’Neale could all be available for some or all of the MLE.

If Monk stays, the Kings will be at or just over the tax line. They’ll be filling out the roster with their draft picks (they should go with the best player available with the 13th pick) and veteran minimums at their point. Of Sacramento’s own free agents, Alex Len seems the most likely to return. He’s been a solid backup for Domantas Sabonis for a few years now. JaVale McGee could also return as an end-of-bench veteran, because he’s well-liked in the locker room.

As for extensions, the Kings would probably love to lock up De’Aaron Fox this summer. For Fox, he’ll probably want to put it off a year. That will give him a chance to get back on an All-NBA team to make himself eligible for a 35% of the cap maximum extension in 2025.

Kevin Huerter is more likely to be traded than he is to be extended. Davion Mitchell could sign a team-friendly rookie scale extension. He was in and out of the rotation all season long, but his defense means he still has value. Something like the four-year, $30 million extension that Payton Pritchard signed last offseason seems like a good benchmark for Mitchell and Sacramento. Chris Duarte hasn’t shown enough to get extended at this point.

The Sacramento Kings have work to do. The front office has always been active in trade talks, so don’t rule out something coming there, as there is some easily movable salary on the roster. Mostly though, this is about re-signing Monk, or reasonably replacing him, and seeing improvement from Keegan Murray. If those things happen, Sacramento will be back in the mix for a playoff spot again next season.

Chicago Bulls

Offseason Approach: Should rebuild, but won’t

Actual Cap Space: -$78.2M

Practical Cap Space: -$74.3M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $38.9M

Under Contract (11): FULL ROSTER
Lonzo Ball, Onuralp Bitim (non-guaranteed), Jevon Carter, Alex Caruso ($3 million guaranteed), Ayo Dosunmu, Andrew Funk (two-way), Zach LaVine, Julian Phillips, Dalen Terry, Nikola Vucevic, Coby White

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Torrey Craig (unrestricted – player option), DeMar DeRozan (unrestricted), Henri Drell (restricted – two-way), Andre Drummond (unrestricted), Javonte Green (unrestricted), Adama Sanogo (restricted – two-way), Patrick Williams (restricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,681,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #11

Notable Extension Candidates: Lonzo Ball (veteran extension), Alex Caruso (veteran extension), DeMar DeRozan (veteran extension – through June 30)

Analysis: 

Full disclosure: When mapping out the offseason previews, we kept coming up with only 29 teams. It took a couple of extra looks to realize that we had forgotten the Chicago Bulls.

The Chicago Bulls: perfectly forgettable (ForgettaBull?)

The Bulls were once NBA royalty. But it’s been 26 years since Michael Jordan last played for Chicago. Heck, it’s been nine seasons since the Bulls have advanced past the first round of the playoffs.

Never good enough to be contenders. Never bad enough to be interesting in the draft. Forever stuck in the middle. Perfectly forgettable.

This offseason, the Bulls could hit a hard reset. They could let DeMar DeRozan walk, trade Zach LaVine for a decent return (more on that later), move Nikola Vucevic to a center-needy team, trade Alex Caruso for a nice haul, let Lonzo Ball’s contract run its course, play the kids, be terrible and get a great draft pick in what looks to be a very strong 2025 NBA Draft.

Likely only a couple of those will happen, and they aren’t really the ones that need to happen.

Let’s start with the elephant in the room: Lonzo Ball’s contract. We’re referring to him as Lonzo Ball’s Expiring Contract now, because that’s sadly where we are at. Ball hasn’t played in two-and-half years. Despite working hard to get back, no one will believe Ball can play until we see it happen.

That leaves Chicago in an interesting spot. Ball’s absence has allowed Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu to develop into good players. They aren’t franchise guys to build around, but they are solid building blocks for the future. And both are on very good contracts.

That means the Bulls can take a couple of different paths with Ball and his expiring $21.4 million deal. Chicago doesn’t need Ball on the court (assuming he can even play), so they can either let his contract expire and potentially create some cap space in 2025. Or Chicago could swap Ball’s contract for a less desirable one that runs a bit longer, while getting paid in young talent and/or draft picks to do so. Maybe one of the second apron teams needs to shed some salary long-term, and the Bulls can offer relief via Ball’s expiring contract.

The real decisions for Chicago this summer come with DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine.

DeRozan is a pending unrestricted free agent. The Bulls can extend DeRozan right up until the end of the day on June 30, or they could sign him to a new contract as a free agent. DeRozan is playing about as good as he ever has, making this a real decision for him and Chicago.

DeRozan did his thing as a scorer and playmaker, while continuing to deliver in the clutch. He also played in 79 games, while leading in the NBA in minutes per game. He’s not even aging just fine, he’s still near his peak.

DeRozan’s last deal was for $81.9 million over three seasons at an AAV of $27.3 million per season. There’s a good chance that his next contract comes in at $90-$100 million over three seasons. That’s how good the soon-to-be 35-year-old has been.

The bigger question: Should that deal come from the Bulls?

If Chicago is committed to chasing a postseason spot, the answer is yes. If the Bulls were to commit to starting over and trying to rebuild through the draft and cap flexibility, they should let DeRozan walk. And, of course, there’s always the chance that DeRozan makes the decision for Chicago and leaves to join a title contender.

On the LaVine front, all indications are that the Bulls will attempt to grant his trade request this summer. There were discussions throughout last season, but that all sort of stopped when LaVine suffered a foot injury that cost him the rest of the season.

Moving almost $138 million over three seasons, starting with $43 million this year, isn’t going to be easy. LaVine is a very good offensive player. He’s pretty efficient, he’s a willing passer and he can play both on- and off-ball. LaVine is also turning 30 years old next season, he’s now had both knee and foot injuries, and he’s not a great defender.

All of that said, there are teams that can use his scoring punch. The Orlando Magic are oft-mentioned in connection to LaVine, and there’s a world where they use a chunk of their cap space to bring him in. The Philadelphia 76ers could pivot to LaVine if other offseason targets don’t come to fruition. If the Detroit Pistons want to speed up the rebuilding process, LaVine is a logical target for them too.

Look for the Bulls to find a deal for LaVine this summer. It’s always easier to move a player like him in the offseason, when there are extra roster spots and teams can use cap space to make a trade easier. The return won’t be a blockbuster. But Chicago should be able to get a combination of picks (perhaps a protected first-rounder or two) and young players (former first-rounders who need a fresh start). The other option is to flip LaVine for veterans who can aid in a win-now push to be playoff team. That’s probably easier to find in many ways, and would keep the status quo as far as the standings go.

For the team’s free agents, Patrick Williams is the priority. He’s had a weird first four years. Williams had a really promising rookie season, then his second year was wiped out due to injuries. He bounced back with a very solid third season, then last season was injury-riddled too.

Williams has shot it well, but is that scalable? Would he be as efficient with 15 shots per game? Could he be a 20-point per game scorer? Can he nudge his rebounding up? Would his typically solid defense hold up with a bigger offensive role? Will he stay healthy?

Those are the questions teams will be asking themselves when considering Williams as a restricted free agent. He makes sense for a team like Oklahoma City, who can use another forward in their rotation. Orlando could be a suitor, if they want to play big across the board. He’d be a really nice fit in Detroit too. All of those teams could put together an offer sheet that makes Chicago think.

Our rookie scale extension projection was $100 million over five seasons. If a team thinks all of the questions about Williams have positive answers, they could put together a $100 million over sheet over four years and feel good about that. And that’s right on the tipping point of the Bulls matching or not. Williams hasn’t even turned 23 yet, so he’s someone Chicago should be trying to keep, as much as other teams.

Alex Caruso should see his contract guaranteed. That’s a no-brainer. Andre Drummond has been very good for Chicago, but he might get bigger offers to play elsewhere. Torrey Craig is one of the better 3&D options available this summer, and he can guard 2-4. He might get a bigger offer than the Bulls can/should give him.

At the draft, the Bulls should take the best player available. They have enough needs that no one should be ruled out because of the position they play.

Speaking of the draft, especially as it related to bottoming out next season…If Chicago were to rebuild, they need to really bottom out and tank. The Bulls owe a top-10 protected 2025 pick to the San Antonio Spurs. If they are going to be bad next season, they need to be bad enough to make sure that they keep that pick.

But that’s probably not going to happen. Chicago will probably re-sign DeRozan to a fair deal, move LaVine in a sideways kind of trade that keeps them competitive for the playoffs and they’ll probably win 40-44 games and be in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament.

Not good enough to contend. Not bad enough to get a great draft pick. Perfectly ForgettaBull.

Atlanta Hawks

Offseason Approach: Cleaning up the cap sheet around the first overall pick

Actual Cap Space: -$60.5M

Practical Cap Space: -$52.8M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$4.6M

Under Contract (11): FULL ROSTER
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kobe Bufkin, Clint Capela, Bruno Fernando (non-guaranteed), A.J. Griffin Jr., Mouhamed Gueye, De’Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson, Dejounte Murray, Onyeka Okongwu, Trae Young

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Saddiq Bey (restricted), Trent Forrest (unrestricted), Vit Krejci (restricted – two-way), Seth Lundy (restricted – two-way), Garrison Mathews (unrestricted – team option), Wesley Matthews (unrestricted), Dylan Windler (unrestricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,681,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: John Collins ($23,019,560)

First Round Draft Picks:  #1

Notable Extension Candidates: Clint Capela (veteran extension), Jalen Johnson (rookie scale extension), Trae Young (veteran extension)

Post-Lottery Analysis: 

The Hawks made the massive jump up in the lottery, going from the tenth overall pick to the first overall pick. That puts Atlanta in position to draft whoever they want. Most believe that will be Alex Sarr, who would immediately slot in at one of the big man spots for the Hawks.

Getting the first overall pick had a pretty big financial impact on the Hawks. The first overall pick holds a first-year salary of $12.6 million vs the tenth pick at $5.5 million. Now, instead of dancing just under the luxury tax line, Atlanta now projects to be into the tax without making a salary-clearing move. And that’s before re-signing any free agents and filling out the roster.

Finally, there is a case to be made that trading Trae Young got easier after landing the first pick. You can sell the newcomer, plus whatever you get in return for Young, as your building blocks for the future. One lucky bounce of a ping pong ball, and the Atlanta Hawks future may now look entirely different.

Analysis: 

The Atlanta Hawks slipped out of the playoffs last season. After two years of first-round exits, the Hawks fell in the Play-In Tournament and missed out on the playoffs entirely. This was a third consecutive year of backsliding since the surprising Eastern Conference Finals run in 2021.

In many ways, that’s emblematic of where the Hawks are at as a franchise. They’re good enough to make the Play-In Tournament, and probably good enough to make the playoffs, but this roster feels about tapped out as far as going further.

At a glance, Atlanta has a lot of talent. But a lot of that talent overlaps and doesn’t quite fit together the way it should. And, arguably most importantly, the Hawks are way too expensive to be a middling team.

That all points to a summer of change. That change likely starts in a dramatic way with the backcourt.

For months, reports have been that the Hawks have shopped Dejounte Murray. So much so, that it was a bit of a surprise when Murray wasn’t dealt ahead of the trade deadline. Now, speculation is that Atlanta could potentially pivot to trading Trae Young. One thing seems certain: This backcourt doesn’t have much longer to run together.

The case for trading Murray is that he’s playing out of position as a secondary guard that is off-ball a lot. Murray also isn’t a surefire All-Star, nor is he the Hawks franchise player.

The case against trading Murray is that he’s really good, and even better when he’s the team’s primary ballhandler. Murray is also just starting a perfectly fair four-year, $114 million contract extension.

The case for trading Young is that he’s a star. A deal for Young should return a monster package of players and draft picks. And it would clear up to $138 million off the books over the next three seasons.

The case against trading Young is that he’s the Hawks franchise guy. And he wants to be in Atlanta. There’s also the fact that Young, despite his defensive flaws, is an All-Star and All-NBA level guy. He’s an offense unto himself, and that’s huge in building a good team.

The Hawks will undoubtedly have plenty of offers for both Young and Murray this summer. Getting this right is the most important item on Landry Fields’ offseason to-do list. And it doesn’t feel like a decision that can be delayed any further. Something has to give this summer.

Part of the reason the Hawks need to make a move here is to start to clean up a bloated cap sheet. They started the process by trading John Collins in a salary-dump last offseason, but they ate up that flexibility they created by extending Murray and Onyeka Okongwu. Neither of those deals are bad, nor the wrong decisions, but the Hawks are basically right back where they were a year ago.

Atlanta is about $2.5 million under the luxury tax with 12 players and their first-round pick on the books. By the time the Hawks fill their last couple of roster spots, they’ll be into the tax. That can’t be a thing for a team whose upside is .500, as presently constructed.

Trading Young or Murray would go a long way towards re-balancing the cap sheet long-term. But taking back salary in a trade would eat into that flexibility for the upcoming season, potentially by a good amount.

That tax crunch is going to guide what happens with Saddiq Bey, who is the only real Hawks free agent of note. Prior to tearing his ACL in mid-March, Bey looked like a decent bet to re-sign in Atlanta. Now, that could still happen, but it won’t be for the deal Bey hoped for previously. There’s a world where Bey simply signs his $8.5 million qualifying offer, spends most of the year rehabbing, and hits unrestricted free agency in 2025.

Bey’s injury is only one reason Atlanta should be wary of signing him to a long-term deal. The other reason is that Atlanta already has three years and nearly $70 million committed to De’Andre Hunter. In addition, Jalen Johnson is extension-eligible for the first time this summer. And none of Bey, Hunter nor Johnson are small-ball options to play the five. All are true combo forwards.

A year ago, the idea of Johnson being extension-eligible having an impact on the Hawks long-term plans would have been laughable. He only started to play impactful minutes after the 2023 All-Star break. But Johnson carried that momentum over to this past season in a big way.

Despite dealing with injuries throughout the year, Johnson put together a very good season. Johnson clearly has the most upside of that forward trio that includes Bey and Hunter. That makes trying to get an extension done both important, but also kind of tricky.

Johnson isn’t a max guy, not with the short track record of being a starter-level guy. But he’s also not going to be a steal for Atlanta either. Ideally, the Hawks probably want to sign him to a deal worth $25 million AAV over four or five years. And this is one where Atlanta should use the standard 8% raises per year structure. Starting a new deal for Johnson at a lower number would make it easier to dance under the tax line in 2025-26, while cap growth should outpace the contract growth in future seasons.

Young and Clint Capela are both eligible for veteran extensions. Obviously, nothing will even be broached with Young until it’s decided if he’ll be staying in Atlanta or not. He’s also got three years left on his contract, so we’re probably a year too early for real extension talks to commence.

As for Capela, the Hawks need to let this one play out. They signed Okongwu to a fairly team-friendly contract, and he’s just about ready to replace Capela. There’s no need to add more salary to the cap sheet than is necessary here.

For the team’s non-Bey free agents, two-way player Vit Krejci is the only one who may garner significant free agent interest. Atlanta can, and should, control this process by making Krejci a restricted free agent. He emerged late in the year as a key rotation player, to the extent that it was a surprise the Hawks didn’t convert Krejci for the postseason.

At the draft, Atlanta should have a late-lottery pick, barring some ping pong ball luck. This is a “best player available” scenario. Ideally, Atlanta won’t double-down with another point guard, after selecting Kobe Bufkin last year, but Bufkin didn’t show enough to make that a lock. If the Hawks move up via the lottery, they’ll be in position to grab whatever big, forward or ballhandler that they like best.

This is a big summer for the Atlanta Hawks. It feels like a blockbuster trade that involves Trae Young or Dejounte Murray is coming. It’s possible that Clint Capela could end up on the move too. Really, almost nothing should be ruled out. When you’ve slid from playoffs to play-in, and you’re hovering around the tax, it’s time for changes. Only time will tell just how drastic those changes will be.

Golden State Warriors

Offseason Approach: Resetting for one more run

Actual Cap Space: -$109.7M

Practical Cap Space: -$77.5M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $27.3M

Under Contract (11): FULL ROSTER
Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney ($3 million guaranteed), Moses Moody, Chris Paul (non-guaranteed), Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos (non-guaranteed), Pat Spencer (two-way), Andrew Wiggins

Potential Free Agents (6): FULL LIST
Usman Garuba (unrestricted), Gary Payton II (unrestricted – player option), Lester Quinones (restricted), Jerome Robinson (unrestricted – two-way), Dario Saric (unrestricted), Klay Thompson (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,681,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: None

Notable Extension Candidates: Stephen Curry (veteran extension), Jonathan Kuminga (rookie scale extension), Kevon Looney (veteran extension), Moses Moody (rookie scale extension), Chris Paul (veteran extension), Gary Payton II (veteran extension), Klay Thompson (veteran extension – through June 30)

Analysis: 

The Golden State Warriors have finally hit the crossroads they’ve been approaching for the last few years. After rallying to win the 2022 title, the Warriors fell off to a second-round exit in 2023 and this year they were the first team eliminated in the Play-In Tournament.

Now, it’s decision time. And none of the important decisions this team has to make are easy ones.

For what feels like third or fourth year running, Golden State ownership has hinted that it’s time to cut payroll. While this may be a “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” situation, it does feel a lot more real this time around. This team simply isn’t good enough to continue to approach a half-billion dollars in salary plus tax penalties. Things are about to change. When ownership says they want to lower the tax bill, if not get out of the tax entirely, we should believe them this time.

The easiest of the Warriors hard decisions seems to be waiving Chris Paul. Paul has a $30 million contract for next season. If Golden State was still competing for titles, the prudent strategy would be to guarantee Paul’s deal and to use that $30 million as salary-matching in a trade.

Given that the Warriors are resetting, it’s best to waive Paul to begin cutting salary. Paul was by no means a bad player last season. He can still run an offense with the best of them. He can still knock down open shots. But the defense has slipped, and creating his own offense is almost non-existent now. That’s not something anyone is going to pay $30 million for.

The without-a-doubt hardest decision, is what happens with Klay Thompson. Thompson is a Warriors legend. His #11 will get retired by the team someday, ideally on the same day as Stephen Curry’s #30 and Draymond Green’s #23. But that doesn’t mean Golden State needs to pay Thompson anything approaching a max salary anymore.

All of the “Klay Thompson is washed” stuff went way too far. He still averaged 17.9 points per game and made 38.7% of his threes last season. Thompson can still play a role on a good team.

Therein lies the rub.

Thompson is a role player now. He’s not an All-Star and he never will be again. If the Warriors are serious about cutting salary, it starts with Thompson just as much as it does with Paul.

Golden State needs to be firm here. Thompson made $43.2 million last year. Ideally, the Warriors would cut that figure in half. Something in the range of $20-$22 million feels fair. You’re acknowledging and paying for everything Thompson has meant to the franchise, while also acknowledging he’s a lessened, but still valuable player…at the right price.

Last thing on Thompson: To some extent how much the Warriors pay him is only dependent on how serious they are about getting out of the tax this coming season. The far more important matter is the number of years that Golden State locks into for Thompson. This needs to be year-to-year territory now, and if it’s a two-year deal, the second season has to be something the team has control over.

Waiving Paul, and cutting Thompson’s salary roughly in half would have the Warriors about $5.3 million under the luxury tax line with 11 players under contract. That’s pretty workable, and in range of ducking the tax entirely after the roster is filled out.

There’s been reporting that Gary Payton II may opt out of his $9.1 million contract for next season. The idea is Payton will opt out to sign a long-term deal that lowers his number for this season. That’s a way for Golden State to create about $4-$5 million more in wiggle room under the tax.

If the Warriors need even more room to work under the tax, they could waive Kevon Looney and eat the $3 million he’s guaranteed out of $8 million contract. That’s another $5 million in potential savings. Do all of the above, and Golden State will be roughly $14-$15 million under the tax line. They’ll need backup point guard to replace Paul and a center to replace Looney, but they’d have the full MLE plus minimum contracts to work with. Not to mention how being out from under the tax and the aprons would free up trade possibilities.

Roster moves probably won’t be quite as drastic as all of the above. Looney feels somewhat likely to stick, given his $8 million salary for what he brings is perfectly fair. The bigger point is that Golden State can get down under the tax line, or at least really close, without all that big of a sacrifice talent-wise.

Lowering the tax, or dodging it entirely, is important for the Warriors to save some money for what has become a merely above-average team. It’s also important to start resetting the clock on the tax repeater rules.

The reason the latter point matters is that Golden State has to figure out contract extensions for Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody this summer. Those could push the payroll right back up to tax levels for at least a couple of years.

Kuminga is clearly the more important of the two players to get locked up. Despite being somewhat positionally blocked by both Green and Thompson, Kuminga put together the best season of his young career. He blossomed as a scorer, both in the halfcourt offense and in transition. He was a solid defender, holding his own against both forwards and big wings. The jumper dipped a bit, but Kuminga made up for that by getting to the free throw line more and hitting 75% of his freebies.

It's still too early to talk about a max deal for Kuminga, but we’re not going to be too far off that territory. The absolute floor for the 21-year-old forward should be four years and $100 million. If that needs to push up to $120-$140 million to get him locked in, the Warriors should do it. He’s the only young player of the “second timeline” that has truly popped.

Moody is too much of a question mark to get a big extension now. He showed some real improvement this year, but it’s still uncertain if he’ll be more than a nice rotation player. In a crowded wing rotation, Moody has been unable to step forward. An additional challenge for Moody is that the Warriors have Brandin Podziemski on a rookie deal, and they both play the same positions.

This is an extension that never would have gotten done in previous seasons. The offer would have been so low that Moody would have been best to bet on himself. That’s changed some, but given the logjam on the wing, we’re guessing no extension is signed here.

Veteran players Curry, Looney, Paul and Payton are all also extension-eligible. But it’s probably a year too early for Curry and the others aren’t getting extended, given what we’ve already covered.

As we said to start, the Warriors have hit a crossroads. No matter what path they take, it needs to balance the desire to squeeze as much out of the dynastic core as possible, while preparing for the future.

Mike Dunleavy Jr’s first offseason running the front office was mostly about setting the stage for the latter path, while keeping the path to contention open. Now, it’s time to reset both the roster and the cap sheet. That might mean a short-term falloff, but one that leads to a long-term gain.

Houston Rockets

Offseason Approach: From postseason contention to in the postseason

Actual Cap Space: -$34.6M

Practical Cap Space: -$21.7M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $14.8M

Under Contract (10): FULL ROSTER
Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks, Tari Eason, Jalen Green, Jock Landale (non-guaranteed), Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Fred VanVleet, Cam Whitmore

Potential Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Reggie Bullock (unrestricted), Jeff Green (unrestricted – team option), Nate Hinton (restricted – two-way), Aaron Holiday (unrestricted), Boban Marjanovic (unrestricted), Jermaine Samuels Jr. (restricted – two-way), Jae’Sean Tate (unrestricted – team option), Nate Williams Jr. (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,681,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Kevin Porter Jr. ($4,510,000)

First Round Draft Picks: #3

Notable Extension Candidates: Steven Adams (veteran extension), Jalen Green (rookie scale extension), Alperen Sengun (rookie scale extension), Jae’Sean Tate (veteran extension)

Post-Lottery Analysis:

The Rockets made a big jump from the ninth overall pick up to the third overall pick. Now, Houston is positioned to add another talent to their young core. Or, as many have already speculated, the Rockets could trade the pick in a package for more win-now talent.

Financially, Houston takes about $4.4 million in salary for next season. That doesn’t change the Rockets cap/tax picture. They’ll still be over the cap, and a bit tighter to the tax than planned. But Houston has more than enough wiggle room under the tax to do whatever work they need to this summer.

Analysis: 

The Houston Rockets did what most coaches call the “easy part”. The Rockets went from being a bad team to a competitive team. Most coaches say that’s the easy step.

Now, things get a little harder. The good news? Houston is well set up to do the hard part.

While some panned the idea of this young team adding a bunch of veterans (some by overpaying them) last summer, it worked out quite well. The Rockets played meaningful basketball into April, and the veterans helped the young roster learn what it takes to win.

Now, it’s about adding to that mix for Ime Udoka. Houston could make trades, but they kind of already did that. There aren’t many glaring needs for this team. Whatever the front office decides they do need, they’re armed with the Non-Taxpayer MLE to go get it. And the Rockets have enough room under the tax to use the full MLE without any worry.

Why we say the Rockets kind of already made trades is that they filled one need by acquiring Steven Adams at the trade deadline. Given Adams was already ruled out for the entirety of last season, this was a future-based move. The trade put Victor Oladipo’s expiring contract to good use by adding a player Houston might not have been able to acquire otherwise.

Now, instead of using their available assets and tools to acquire a backup center, that hole is filled. Assuming he’s healthy, Adams will bring a level of physicality, defense and additional veteran presence to the frontcourt.

That means the Rockets can use the MLE to target something else. Preferably, they’d add a 3&D guy to the bench. Someone who can swing between backing up both Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks. Ideally, an improved version of Jae’Sean Tate or what they had hoped to get from Reggie Bullock.

Some players who make sense and could be in the MLE range are Royce O’Neale, Torrey Craig, Gary Harris, Malik Beasley, Cedi Osman and Naji Marshall. Some of those players will only take a portion of the MLE to get too, which would leave the rest of it help shore up other needs.

For the Rockets own free agents, Aaron Holiday earned a chance to return. The hope is that Amen Thompson will be ready for a bigger role as the team’s primary backup point guard, while also seeing minutes on the wing. Even with that being the case, there’s room for Holiday.

Houston will likely pick up their team options for both Jeff Green and Jae’Sean Tate. Green is still a solid backup in a frontcourt, even as he goes into Year 17. Tate fell out of the rotation as year went along, but he’s still a solid value for just over $7 million. In addition, that’s a nice chunk of salary to add as salary-matching in a trade.

None of the two-way players made enough of an impact to be sure if they’ll stick or not. That leaves Reggie Bullock and Boban Marjanovic. Bullock never made the impact he or Houston hoped he would. He’s likely heading elsewhere. Marjanovic might be back, if there’s a roster spot. He’s beloved by teammates, coaches and fans no matter where he plays.

All of that leaves us with the most important part of the summer for Rockets: rookie scale extensions for Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun.

Sengun is the easier one. If he’s not a max guy, he’s really close to it. Coming in, the comps were that Sengun could be a light version of Nikola Jokic. It took about a year-and-a-half, but the promise Sengun showed in the back half of his second season was built upon last season. He’s a 20/10 guy who can function as an offensive hub, because he’s also a terrific playmaker. Sengun will probably never be Jokic, but even a slightly lesser version of the superstar is a pretty great outcome.

That means he’s in position to push for a max deal. If Houston gets squirrelly about maxing out Sengun, they could do what we’re now calling the “Desmond Bane max”. That’s a deal where the player’s base salary is below the max, but he has enough achievable incentives in his deal that he can earn a full max contract. Funnily enough, this is similar to the deal Nikola Jokic once signed with the Denver Nuggets.

As for Green…who knows? Playing for the first time on a team with some expectations and in an organized system, Green was pretty meh for the season’s first four-and-a-half months. He barely cracked 40% from the field, and it looked like Green might not cut it on a team that plays competitive basketball.

Then March hit and Green took off. Over the final two months and 23 games, Green was awesome. He averaged 24 points, six rebounds and four assists, while hitting 46/37/79 shooting splits. As the Rockets made a push for the Play-In Tournament, Green was leading the charge.

Now, Houston is left to decide which Jalen Green is the real one. We can’t completely throw away Green’s first two seasons in the NBA, because they did happen. But those Rockets teams were a mess, and no place for a very young guard to develop good habits and skills. We’re mostly judging Green on the first two-thirds of last season against the final third.

If the Rockets believe Green is the final-third guy, they can give him $28-$30 million AAV without any worry. Heck, they could even go all the way to the 25% of the cap max. Green was that good.

If Houston is unsure, it might be best to let him play it out in a contract year. Might that end up definitely costing you a max deal in 2025? Sure. But it’s one you would be happy to pay, as opposed to paying him early and having things go sideways.

The Rockets took real steps forward. Ime Udoka was a homerun hire as the head coach. The veteran signings worked out very well. The young players improved in real, tangible ways. It’s important to keep adding and building, because life isn’t getting any easier in the Western Conference. But the future is as bright in Houston as it is for any of the non-postseason teams.

Brooklyn Nets

Offseason Approach: Moving forward while preserving flexibility for the future

Actual Cap Space: -$26.7M

Practical Cap Space: -$26.7M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $37.2M

Under Contract (11): FULL ROSTER
Mikal Bridges, Noah Clowney, Dorian Finney-Smith, Cameron Johnson, Jaylen Martin (two-way), Dennis Schroder, Day’Ron Sharpe, Ben Simmons, Cam Thomas, Dariq Whitehead, Jalen Wilson ($75,000 guaranteed)

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Keita Bates-Diop (unrestricted – player option), Nicolas Claxton (unrestricted), Jacob Gilyard (restricted – two-way), Keon Johnson (unrestricted – two-way), Dennis Smith Jr. (unrestricted), Lonnie Walker IV (unrestricted), Trendon Watford (restricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,681,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Spencer Dinwiddie ($20,357,143), Joe Harris ($11,928,571), Patty Mills ($6,802,950), Royce O’Neale ($9,500,000)

First Round Draft Picks: None

Notable Extension Candidates: Mikal Bridges (veteran extension), Day’Ron Sharpe (rookie scale extension), Ben Simmons (veteran extension), Cameron Thomas (rookie scale extension)

Analysis: 

The Brooklyn Nets have been on a slide since breaking up their Big Three of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving. It happened in parts, but after Durant was shipped out as the last star standing, the Nets have gone 20 games under .500 in the regular season. The uneven play to end the 2022-23 campaign became poor play throughout last season.

Now, Brooklyn is once again left to pick up the pieces after breaking up a super-team. The good news? They aren’t exactly starting from scratch this time around.

Sean Marks is still in charge, just as he was when he took over in 2016 without much talent on the roster and precious few draft picks under team control. Marks did this once before, now he has to do it again. This time around, he’s working with better players and he’s got some draft picks coming his way.

The first move of the offseason was hiring Jordi Fernandez as the team’s new head coach. Brooklyn touted Fernandez as someone they feel can succeed if the team is building back up around a younger roster, or someone who can have success if they try to quickly turn things around.

It’s the second option there that seems a little worrisome.

The Nets have been at their best when they build the team up by finding diamonds in the rough and developing their own young talent. However, this team is kind of caught in the middle at the moment.

Brooklyn isn’t overflowing with young talent. While players like Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson aren’t exactly old, they aren’t youngsters anymore either. Bridges will join Johnson as being 28 years old at the start of next season. Both have lots of good basketball in front of them, but the potential has been realized. We know what Bridges and Johnson are as players now.

Unfortunately, that’s sort of the challenge.

Bridges is very good. You love his offense-defense combo if he’s your third-best player. As the primary guy, as Bridges was for the whole of last season, he’s miscast. He’s not good enough to carry an offense, and because he’s not a big, you can’t build your defense around him. Johnson is also good, but he’s overmatched if he’s anything more than your fifth-best starter.

And Bridges and Johnson aren’t even the two highest paid Nets.

We’ve hit the point where he’s going to be referred to as “Ben Simmons Expiring Contract” instead of just Ben Simmons. Over the last three seasons, due to injuries and holding out, Simmons has played in 57 games. He went under the knife again, to hopefully finally address a back issue that has sidelined him regularly during the last three years.

Simmons is owed $40.3 million next season, in the final year of his deal. Even if he doesn’t play, that’s a valuable piece of salary matching in a trade. Ben Simmons Expiring Contract it is then.

That may seem harsh, but that’s how the Nets have to operate. If there’s a star available, expect Marks to explore it. Or if a trade to flesh out the depth by turning that $40 million into two or three players, Brooklyn has to consider that too.

If a great trade for the future isn’t available, the Nets can let Simmons’ deal expire and move forward with cap space in 2025. The only way Brooklyn can really screw this is up is by flipping Simmons for bad money moving forward. Otherwise, trading Simmons or simply letting his contract expire, are strong options moving forward.

We’re going to skip past the idea that Simmons is extension-eligible, because the idea of extending him now is so farfetched. Hopefully this latest surgery gets Simmons right and he gets back to being the All-Star level guy he was in Philadelphia. But that’s something he’ll need to prove, and no one will believe it until it’s proven for a full season.

Bridges is also extension-eligible, and the Nets have to be careful here. Right now, Bridges is the closest thing the team has to a franchise player. But as we covered above, that’s not really who he is. If Brooklyn can extend Bridges by adding something in the range of three years and $100 to $120 million, that’s reasonable. Beyond that, a contract gets a bit long and a bit too expensive for someone who can’t carry a team.

Marks also has to handle rookie scale extensions for Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe. Thomas is the more proven player. He can score in bunches and he’s a pretty good shooter. So, Thomas might be more than the stereotypical bench gunner. The question is if he can do more than score. If the Nets think he can become a good defender and a good playmaker, that’s a different type of contract than a guy who can score, but isn’t quite elite at that singular skill.

Ideally, Thomas would take something in the range of four-years and $100 million. That doesn’t get too expensive if his game doesn’t round out beyond scoring. Anything more than that, and Brooklyn could end up on the hook for a guy who is a little overpaid for what might be an uncertain role. For Thomas, he might be better off betting he can show an improved all-around game and hit restricted free agency in 2025 to cash in on an even bigger deal.

Sharpe showed a lot more in Year 3 than he had in either of his first two NBA seasons. The challenge is that he hasn’t won a starting job and he’s not a defensive anchor. If he’d sign a deal like the four-year, $32 million rookie scale extension that Zeke Nnaji signed with the Denver Nuggets, the Nets should get Sharpe locked up. But that kind of deal was sort of new last offseason. Normally, anything under an MLE level of contract is a spot where the player bets on himself. Did we see a new market-setting deal with Nnaji or an abnormally team-friendly deal? That’s what Brooklyn and Sharpe will have to hammer out.

When we flip to free agency, Brooklyn’s big decision is with Nic Claxton. In two years as a starter, Claxton has been terrific. He’s an excellent defender and rebounder, a very good finisher and he’s shown improvements as a screener and passer too. $20 to $25 million is what non-All-Star centers have gone for in recent years. If we adjust up slightly, Claxton could be looking at a deal that lands between $100 and $120 million over four years.

The other factor the Nets have to consider: Who would they be competing against for Claxton? Most of the cap space teams have centers already in place. In addition, most contenders, or would-be contenders, also have centers in place. That could work in Brooklyn’s favor for retaining Claxton on the lower end of the above range.

Trendon Watford should also get some consideration to be re-signed. He won’t break the bank, and as a non-max restricted free agent, the Nets can really control the process with him. Watford can play. He should be back, ideally on a long-term deal.

The Nets other free agents are more in the replacement-level category, either for skill or fit. Dennis Smith Jr. has done a nice job getting his career on track, but he’s a minimum guy for point guard depth. Lonnie Walker IV is very likely headed elsewhere, as his role decreased throughout the year. If Keita Bates-Diop opts out, he’s likely gone too. If Bates-Diop opts in, he’s an end-of-the-bench guy on a minimum deal.

The draft will be a non-event, as of now. Brooklyn is the only team that doesn’t have a single pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

As for free agent or trade targets, a lot of that depends on when Sean Marks wants to push things forward. To do so this year would mean trading Simmons and assets to get a star. But there’s at least as good of a chance that Brooklyn holds off to make their big push in the 2025 offseason. Pending re-signing players, the Nets can conservatively create $70 to $80 million in cap space next summer. They’ve already structured things to maximize that space.

If Brooklyn semi-punts on this offseason, they’re sending a signal that they’re looking at a big summer in 2025 and the upcoming season will probably look a lot like this last one. If they re-sign Claxton and trade Simmons’ expiring deal and assets for a star, then the Nets will be pushing for more as soon as next season. Sean Marks has been here before. This is his last chance to get it right. Otherwise, someone else will calling the shots in Brooklyn the next time the Nets go star-hunting.

Utah Jazz

Offseason Approach: Time to take steps forward

Actual Cap Space: -$13.9M

Practical Cap Space: $38.3M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $70.9M

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER
Darius Bazley (non-guaranteed), Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, Walker Kessler, Kenneth Lofton Jr. (non-guaranteed), Lauri Markkanen ($6 million guaranteed), Jason Preston (two-way), Brice Sensabaugh, Collin Sexton, Omer Yurtseven (non-guaranteed)

Potential Free Agents (6): FULL LIST
Kris Dunn (unrestricted), Talen Horton-Tucker (unrestricted), Johnny Juzang (restricted – two-way), Kira Lewis Jr. (restricted), Micah Potter (restricted – two-way), Luka Samanic (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Room Exception ($8,006,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: PNone (expected to be renounced for cap space)

First Round Draft Picks:  #10, #29

Notable Extension Candidates: John Collins (veteran extension), Lauri Markkanen (veteran extension), Collin Sexton (veteran extension)

Post-Lottery Analysis: 

The Jazz weren’t really hurt all that much by dropping from the eighth pick to the tenth pick. Had they slid one more pick, and had to send that selection to the Thunder, things might have gotten interesting.

As it stands, this drop created slightly more cap space for Utah this summer. Every little bit helps for a team that plans to go star-hunting this offseason.

Analysis: 

The Utah Jazz have missed the postseason two years in a row. However, that was mostly by design, as the last two seasons have seen Utah bottom out following the trade deadline. And in neither year did franchise leadership make the wrong decision to drop out of the postseason race.

The Jazz aren’t far away from being a really good team, but they aren’t particularly close either. In other words: Utah is right on time and right in Danny Ainge’s sweet spot.

Ainge did the hard part two summers ago when he traded Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, as well as some others, and kicked off a rebuild. Much like he did with the Boston Celtics (on two different occasions!) Ainge’s team got better than expected earlier than expected. This time around, Ainge hit the breaks before a short postseason run, in hopes of building something greater.

This summer, it’s time for the Jazz to start taking some real steps forward. They don’t need to be title contenders, or even in the mix for homecourt advantage. But making the playoffs, or at least a quality Play-In Tournament run in a deep Western Conference, is next up for Utah.

The easiest decision Ainge has this summer is fully guaranteeing Lauri Markkanen’s contract. The deal Markkanen signed as part of a sign-and-trade to the Cleveland Cavaliers is hitting its final year. The once unproven young player is now an established All-Star and he’s Utah’s franchise player of the moment.

Guaranteeing Markkanen is a no-brainer. What happens next is where things get really interesting.

The Jazz are likely going to clear the deck as much as they can by renouncing free agents and waiving their other non-guaranteed players. While there are surely players that Utah would like to bring back of their group of free agents (Kris Dunn, Talen-Horton Tucker, Luka Samanic and Kira Lewis Jr.) and their group of non-guaranteed players (Darius Bazley, Kenneth Lofton Jr. and Omer Yurtseven), none of them are worth taking away from the Utah’s potential cap space.

Ainge can pretty easily create up to $35.7 million in cap space. And the path to creating even more, if necessary, is pretty open too. From there, Utah has a few options.

The first path involves pursuing free agents, or using cap space to aid in absorbing the contract of a major player via trade. Despite common perception, the Jazz have actually done fairly well in free agency over the years. Utah is somewhere players enjoy living because they can do so without being bothered. It also helps that Salt Lake City is the NBA’s shortest distance to Las Vegas. If a guy needs a night out, that’s pretty easily arranged.

All of the above is why the Jazz signing one of the better free agents can’t be ruled out. Outside of the frontcourt, which seems pretty stocked with Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler, no spots are locked in on the Utah roster. There’s room for a big guard or wing in between the frontcourt players and Keyonte George, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton in the backcourt.

That gives Ainge a lot of optionality this summer to purse talent. Could Utah make a pitch to Paul George? What about a conversation with DeMar DeRozan about finishing his career by lifting a young roster to the playoffs? Could a return for Gordon Hayward, in a different phase of his career, and on a much different contract, make sense?

There are also quite a few expensive teams that could be looking to rebalance their cap sheets this summer. Brandon Ingram, Khris Middleton, Jerami Grant and DeAndre Hunter are just a few examples of potential tax-avoidance/lessening moves that are on the table this offseason.

And, of course, a star or two will shake loose that no one is talking about. That’s where the Jazz are poised to make a move. Utah has a talented young roster, cap space to make a move and up to eight additional draft picks to throw into trade offers.

The second path for the Jazz is to continue building around what they have in place already. Post-deadline, Utah force fed minutes to their younger players. Keyonte George played all season, but he got even more responsibility thrown on him. Taylor Hendricks went from barely playing to starting and getting 25+ minutes per game. Brice Sensabaugh, the team’s third 2023 first-round pick, played a bunch in March and April.

The kids weren’t ready. In sink-or-swim minutes, they still needed their water wings to stay afloat. But they started to learn how to swim, and they all flashed that they can play. That’s all those late-season minutes were really for.

That puts Utah in a place where they can mostly run it back, with a value free agent signing, or trade, or two. In that world, the Jazz are probably sitting on some leftover cap space. And that’s where we circle back to Lauri Markkanen.

Markkanen is this team’s guy. If Utah goes the first path and spends all of their cap space via free agency or trades, Markkanen is probably content to play out the year and sign a big contract as a free agent in 2024. It the Jazz are sitting on cap space, it makes sense for them to take care of Markkanen now via a renegotiation-and-extension deal.

Much like the Sacramento Kings did with Domantas Sabonis last summer, the Jazz can take Markkanen all the way up to a 30% of the cap max deal for next season, provided they have the roughly $24 million in cap space to do so. From there, Utah can add up to four additional years to a deal for their franchise guy, at all the way up to the max.

Under the new CBA, teams can’t sit on mountains of leftover cap space and take it into the season to see what develops. If the Jazz hit late-July/early-August and haven’t found a use for their cap space, they might as well use it take care of Markkanen now. That’s better than letting things go into the summer of 2025 and introducing any sense of certainty.

The Utah Jazz have options this summer. And they have an aggressive front office leader in Danny Ainge. He’s not afraid to take a home run swing when the opportunity presents itself. This offseason will land somewhere between productive (smaller moves and re-upping with Markkanen) and splashy (swinging a big trade or signing a major free agent). That’s a pretty fun place to be as the Jazz take steps forward again.

Toronto Raptors

Offseason Approach: Continuing the reset without having to rebuild

Actual Cap Space: -$35.9M

Practical Cap Space: -$32.5M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $50.1M

Under Contract (11): FULL ROSTER
Ochai Agbaji, Scottie Barnes, R.J. Barrett, Chris Boucher, D.J. Carton (two-way), Gradey Dick, Javon Freeman-Liberty ($100,000 guaranteed), Mouhamadou Gueye (two-way), Jalen McDaniels, Kelly Olynyk, Jakob Poeltl

Potential Free Agents (6): FULL LIST
Bruce Brown (unrestricted – team option), Jordan Nwora (unrestricted), Immanuel Quickley (restricted), Garrett Temple (unrestricted), Gary Trent Jr. (unrestricted), Malik Williams (restricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions:Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Pascal Siakam ($10,171,292)

First Round Draft Picks: #19

Notable Extension Candidates: Scottie Barnes (rookie scale extension), Chris Boucher (veteran extension), Gary Trent Jr. (veteran extension)

Post-Lottery Analysis: 

The Raptors lost the sixth overall pick when the Hawks and Rockets jumped up in the lottery. But that’s probably not something Toronto will bemoan all that much. Sure, they’ll miss out on a decent player, but they are now free and clear of owing a protected pick to San Antonio. That’s a win, especially if the Raptors find themselves as a lottery team in a deeper 2025 draft.

Financially, Toronto cleared some money of the books for next season. If, and it’s still unexpected, the Raptors choose to be a cap space team, they can now create up to $29.8 million in cap space. But the expected path is for Toronto to stay over the cap by picking up Bruce Brown’s $23 million team option.

Analysis: 

The Toronto Raptors did the hard part ahead of last season’s trade deadline: They hit the reset button. That meant trading away the last real ties to the 2019 title team by sending OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks and Pascal Siakam to the Indiana Pacers. But they were the right moves to get the franchise headed in a new direction.

After missing the playoffs in three of the last four years, with one first-round exit mixed in, it was time to start over. The good news? The Raptors aren’t starting over from scratch.

Scottie Barnes has proven to be a player Toronto can build around. Before an injury KO’d him down the stretch of lost season, Barnes put together his best all-around year. He scored, shot, passed, rebounded and defended at the best levels of his career. Now, hammering out a rookie scale extension with Barnes is the most important item on the Raptors summer to-do list.

Barnes is probably going to get a max extension. The real question: Will it be the 25% version, or will the deal have language that can bump him to the 30% max if he makes All-NBA. Bet on the latter. If Barnes hits that level, Toronto will be happy to give him 30% of the cap.

The team’s other extension candidates likely aren’t getting anything done. Chris Boucher isn’t someone to extend, partially because the frontcourt is starting to get a little crowded. Gary Trent Jr. likely wants to test the free agent market for the first time, and he’s also at a position where the Raptors have other options.

That takes us into free agency. There was a point, post trade deadline, where it looked like the Raptors might head into the summer with a bunch of cap space. Then, in early-March, Kelly Olynyk signed a two-year, $26 million extension. That signaled that Toronto likely isn’t going the cap space route, and that gives us insight to some potential roster decisions.

The Raptors have a $23 million team option for Bruce Brown. Is that too much for Brown, given his role and production for this Toronto team? Probably. Is it so much that Brown is overpaid and unmovable via trade? Nope. The expectation now is that the Raptors will pick up Brown’s option, plug him in the rotation somewhere, and potentially use his salary in a trade at some point during the year.

As for the team’s actual free agents, Immanual Quickley is the priority, and it’s not really close. Quickley was a big part of the Raptors return in the OG Anunoby trade and he’s the team’s point guard of the future. We pegged Quickley for a possible extension approaching $90 million before he was traded, but he’s outplayed that now. Look for this deal to come in somewhere in the $100 million to $120 million range over four years.

Toronto’s other free agency decisions are a little easier. If Brown’s option is picked up, there just isn’t room for Trent. In addition to Brown, the Raps will have R.J. Barrett, Gradey Dick and Ochai Agbaji as wings. Investing another contract in Trent, despite his solid play, isn’t a good use of resources. However, don’t rule out a sign-and-trade that helps Toronto fill a need elsewhere.

Jordan Nwora is caught up in the same math as Trent. Garrett Temple might retire. And Malik Williams is a fringe guy. Any of these three could return, but it would be for a minimum deal and a deep bench role.

Because the Raptors, even after re-signing Quickley, are so far under the tax line, Masai Ujiri should be able to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. That’s a nice chunk of spending power to use to sign a player to fill a targeted need.

Here’s the challenge though: What are those targeted needs? Toronto has good big depth with Jakob Poeltl, Olynyk, and Boucher. They’d got a bunch of wings, as we’ve covered. Their primary ballhandlers will be Quickley and Barnes, with players like Barrett and Brown capable of running the offense for stretches.

The Raptors can definitely use another point guard, ideally someone who is able to really defend the position. Kris Dunn would make a lot of sense for Toronto, as he’s an affordable option to play behind Quickley, and with him if necessary. Veterans like Monte Morris, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cam Payne, and Delon Wright could all make sense too.

If Toronto wants another big, they could pursue players like Bol Bol, Xavier Tillman Sr., or Moritz Wagner as affordable 4/5 options. Kyle Anderson could also make sense for some additional 3/4 depth, but that spot seems fairly well covered.

As for the draft, Toronto will be watching the lottery very intently. They currently have the sixth overall pick, but if anyone behind them jumps up into the top-four and pushes them back, the Raptors will have to send that pick to the San Antonio Spurs. The good news? Toronto will still have the 19th overall pick, courtesy of the Siakam trade with the Pacers.

The draft strategy should just be best player available. Barnes and Quickley, and to a lesser degree Barrett and Dick, are this team’s building blocks. They are all versatile enough that Ujiri and Bobby Webster can take whoever they think is the best player, without having to worry about positional fit.

This offseason is crucial for Toronto, but not in an “adding talent” way. This summer is about locking up the players the Raptors already have in Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley. Everything else is about finding the right guys to maximize what those two bring, especially players who fit with Barnes. That might be a two-year process, but if the Raptors get this right, this mini-postseason drought will be over before we know it.

Charlotte Hornets

Offseason Approach: A fresh start has begun

Actual Cap Space: -$13.4M

Practical Cap Space: -$6.8M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $56.1M

Under Contract (14): FULL ROSTER
LaMelo Ball, Leaky Black (two-way), Marques Bolden (two-way), Seth Curry (non-guaranteed), Tre Mann, Cody Martin, Bryce McGowens (non-guaranteed), Vasilije Micic, Brandon Miller, Aleksej Pokusevski (non-guaranteed), Nick Richards, Nick Smith Jr., Grant Williams, Mark Williams

Potential Free Agents (4): FULL LIST
Amari Bailey (restricted – two-way), Davis Bertans (unrestricted – player option – contract becomes $5.25M guaranteed if option picked up), Miles Bridges (unrestricted), J.T. Thor (restricted – team option)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,681,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Gordon Hayward ($3,585,600)

First Round Draft Picks:  #6

Notable Extension Candidates: Tre Mann (rookie scale extension), Cody Martin (veteran extension), J.T. Thor (veteran extension)

Post-Lottery Analysis: 

Not a whole lot changed for the Hornets, despite dropping from the third pick to the sixth pick. They’re still in range for all the same players they would have been pre-lottery. Financially, Charlotte can now create up to $33.8 million in cap space if Miles Bridges were to leave town.

Analysis: 

It’s a fresh start for the Charlotte Hornets. New owners, new front office, new coach. It’s all come with an air of hope for a franchise that has largely become forgettable.

Jeff Peterson is taking over the front office and he’s got some work to do. His first order of business is to hire a new head coach. Steve Clifford is transitioning to an advisor role after his second stint on the Charlotte sidelines.

Getting this hire correct is a key to Peterson setting a tone for the early part of his tenure in charge. Is he going to hire a young coach that can grow with a roster that is still pretty young itself? Is he looking for more of a win-now coach to bring the team up to respectability more quickly? Whoever Peterson hires to coach the team might give us some clues about the offseason approach for the roster.

On its face, Charlotte has a lot of nice players in place. The former front office, despite being in a lame-duck situation, navigated the 2024 trade deadline nicely. There’s some talent to work with here.

Of primary concern is getting LaMelo Ball on the court and keeping him on the court. He’s played in 58 games over the last two seasons combined. He’s the Hornets best player. He’s starting a 25% of the cap max extension next season. If Ball can’t play, everything else becomes that much harder to figure out. The lineups don’t make as much sense and the cap is clogged with a non-productive contract.

Next up is to start to figure out which of the players on the roster are long-term building blocks and which aren’t. Brandon Miller took a bit to get going as a rookie, but he looks like someone you can plug in on the wing and count on to be very good for years to come, and that’s his floor. Mark Williams had a mess of season due to injuries. If healthy, he’s a viable starting center. Cody Martin is a perfectly solid backup wing, assuming he can stay healthy.

The trade deadline brought over Grant Williams, Tre Mann and Vasilije Micic. All three look like they should be rotation players. Williams is a good fit in the frontcourt, as either a starter or a high-end backup. Mann and Micic both played well for the Hornets, and they can both play a key role in the backcourt. Both should be solid backup guard. That’s important, given Ball’s injury issues.

Of actual roster decisions the front office has to make, things kind of start and end with Miles Bridges. And there’s no easy decision there.

On the court, Bridges is a wonderfully talented player. After missing an entire year, Bridges put together a strong season. He’s a bit stretched when asked to function as a team’s primary option, but as a second or third option, Bridges is pretty good.

Off the court, Bridges’ past history with domestic violence has to come into play. He missed the entirety of the 2022-23 season and the start of 2023-24 because he was involved in a domestic violence incident on the eve of 2022 free agency. Not only did that cost Bridges a season-plus, it likely cost him a max contract. No one should shed any tears for him because Bridges caused this to happen. But it is a factor in what comes next.

Bridges missed out on a year of salary, plus some more in completing his suspension this year. He’s going to want to recoup what he can. And he’ll have a chance, whether it’s from the Hornets or another team.

Without making this a sermon, the morals of professional sports teams work on a sliding scale of production/winning vs problem/public perception. Bridges is productive and can help a team win. That means he is going to get paid. By who is the real question.

If the Hornets feel that they’ve already gotten through the toughest part with Bridges, and that he truly is working on becoming a better person, they could offer him a deal that starts in the range of four-years, $120 million. $30 million AAV is more than fair for a player who can score in a variety of ways, rebound, pass a little and can play either forward spot.

If the Hornets want to wipe their hands clean and move on, one of the cap space teams could chase Bridges. Maybe the big contract comes from someone we aren’t considering. Mostly, be prepared for some version of “We believe his talent fills a need for us, and we’re ready to help him take advantage of a new beginning in our city/organization.”

Charlotte and Peterson have to be sure here. They get one shot at this, either way. Losing Bridges for nothing is hard to swallow, simply from a basketball asset management standpoint. But that could be a way to continue the idea of a fresh start for the franchise. As much as hiring his first coach will set a tone, how Peterson handles Bridges will also send a message too.

Elsewhere, the decisions are far simpler. The Hornets have a host of non-guaranteed players who should probably stick around. Seth Curry, Bryce McGowens and J.T. Thor (assuming his team option is picked up) are all worth keeping at their respective salaries. At worst, they’ll be salary ballast in future moves. Aleksej Pokusevski is a bit of a wild-card, but he’s worth keeping too. Maybe it will finally all come together for him. For the minimum, it’s absolutely worth a shot.

Of the non-Bridges free agents, the decisions aren’t very complicated either. Thor should have his option picked up. That leaves Davis Bertans, who is set to make $16 million if he picks up his option and Charlotte subsequently guarantees his deal. Even though Bertans was pretty productive for the Hornets, that’s too expensive. And it seems fairly unlikely Peterson will need that salary to complete a trade.

Expect Bertans to pick up his option, and then Charlotte to waive him, putting them on the hook for $5.25 million in dead salary. That’s fine. For one year, that’s not enough to keep the Hornets from accomplishing any of their goals this summer.

It’s worth noting that there is also a world where the Hornets operate as a cap space team. Let’s say Bridges signs with another team, it might be best for Charlotte to clear the decks as much as possible.

In that situation, Charlotte could create about $31 million in cap space. That’s enough to get involved in both free agency and the trade market. For now, we’re being a bit conservative and keeping Bridges on the books, as well as the gaggle of non-guaranteed players. But keep an eye on this scenario, as it’s very possible.

Jeff Peterson is walking into a franchise that’s been begging for a fresh start for years. He’s the first part of that process, and whoever he hires as the head coach will join him for the journey. From there, Peterson and the team’s owners have a huge decision to make with Miles Bridges. The fresh start has begun with the team’s leadership. Just how far that flows to the roster is something that only time will tell.

Memphis Grizzlies

Offseason Approach: Everything is in place for a bounce-back, just be careful

Actual Cap Space: -$52.5M

Practical Cap Space: -$41.4M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$6.9M

Under Contract (14): FULL ROSTER
Santi Aldama, Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, G.G. Jackson II, Jaren Jackson Jr., Trey Jemison (two-way), John Konchar, Jake LaRavia, Ja Morant, Scotty Pippen Jr. (two-way), Derrick Rose, Marcus Smart, Ziaire Williams, Vince Williams Jr.

Potential Free Agents (4): FULL LIST
Jordan Goodwin (restricted – two-way), Luke Kennard (unrestricted – team option), Lamar Stevens (unrestricted), Yuta Watanabe (unrestricted – player option)

Dead Cap (2): Kennedy Chandler ($2,019,699)

Projected Signing Exceptions: Taxpayer MLE ($5,183,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Steven Adams ($12,600,000), Dillon Brooks ($7,492,540)

First Round Draft Picks:  #9

Notable Extension Candidates: Santi Aldama (rookie scale), Jaren Jackson Jr. (October 1), Luke Kennard (timing pending option decision), Marcus Smart (July 25), Ziaire Williams (rookie scale)

Post-Lottery Analysis: 

The Grizzlies got both hurt and helped when they slid back a couple of picks in the draft lottery. While they should still be in range to get the same caliber of player, there is a chance that someone who might have dropped to the seventh pick may not be there at the ninth pick. In addition, Houston leapfrogged Memphis, which stings because both teams are in similar positions. And both might be targeted the same players.

What helps is that Memphis shaved over a million off the cap sheet. That’s helpful, considering the Grizzlies are dancing around the luxury tax line for the first time in years.

Analysis: 

The wheels came off for the Memphis Grizzlies this past season. They started with Ja Morant’s suspension. When their star came back, multiple Grizzlies were on the shelf due to injuries. Morant soon joined them with an injury of his own. By the end of the season, this team was playing a mixture of G League callups, two-way players and guys on hardship exceptions.

But as they say: When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. And the Grizzlies made some lemonade this year.

The wing position has been an issue for years in Memphis. From the revolving door at the three during the “Grit ‘n’ Grind” era to this group piecing it together with an equally volatile and inconsistent Dillon Brooks, the Grizzlies haven’t had a three they could really count on during most of their Memphis tenure.

In the mess that this season was, both Vince Williams Jr. and G.G. Jackson II emerged as possible answers at small forward. In addition, Jake LaRavia delivered some late-season productivity that looked pretty positive. At least one of those three will be a solid rotation guy moving forward. At least one.

The best part? Williams, Jackson and LaRavia combine to make $7.4 million next season. Getting productive play on that sort of contract would be massive for Memphis.

The reason the Grizzlies need some cheap production is that the team has gotten really expensive. When you draft and develop as well as Memphis has, and you proactively extend those players, it all starts to add up. Sometimes it adds up to more, and more quickly, than you may fully realize.

There’s a world where Memphis mostly runs it back next season and is dealing with the luxury tax. Normally for a 27-win team that isn’t rebuilding, that would sound like madness. For the Grizzlies, it’s smart business.

Morant and Bane lead the list of guys who will be back next year. That’s adding two All-Star level guys to the starting backcourt. Behind them, and regularly alongside them, you have Marcus Smart. That’s a three-guard rotation that is as good as most in the NBA.

Jaren Jackson Jr. was mostly healthy last season, but he’ll have some help up front in the form of Brandon Clarke. In six late-season games, Clarke looked fully recovered from the torn Achilles that sidelined him for most of the year. Now, he can have a normal offseason and be full-go at the start of next season. That’s big for Clarke and Memphis.

In free agency, the Grizzlies single biggest decision point is what to do with Luke Kennard. On one hand, Kennard is a good backup guard/smaller wing. He’s one of the best shooters in the league and a solid playmaker. That fills needs for Memphis.

On the other hand, picking up Kennard’s $14.8 million option would leave the Grizzlies dancing just under the second apron. That’s unheard-of territory for a franchise that hasn’t paid the tax in nearly two decades.

Memphis will likely pick up Kennard’s option, as dealing with the tax is something the team can put off until the 2025 trade deadline. If things go as well as they could, paying the tax might not be all that worrisome of a barrier for ownership.

The team’s other free agents are Lamar Stevens and Yuta Watanabe. Watanabe may make this decision moot by picking up his option. That’s fine. He makes just over the veteran minimum, and Watanabe can help Memphis at the forward spot. Stevens is a nice player, and theoretically provides some forward depth, but he’s caught up in a roster crunch. Someone has to go to make room for the team’s draft pick, and Stevens is probably that guy.

Memphis is set to have their highest draft pick since selecting Morant with the second overall pick at the 2019 NBA Draft. Given the talent the team has, they aren’t planning to have another top-10 pick anytime soon. That makes getting a helpful player with this pick all that much more important.

In an ideal world, Donovan Clingan would have been available for the Grizzlies in the first round. He was a perfect fit of talent and positional need. Alas, he’s probably outplayed that draft position though, so that leaves Memphis looking elsewhere.

A real center is a need. Despite a few of the wings looking solid, getting another player at the three wouldn’t hurt. And you can never have too much shooting, especially with Kennard’s future in Memphis being at least a bit tenuous.

If Clingan isn’t on the board, the Grizzlies should take a long look at Matas Buzelis, Dalton Knecht, Cody Williams and Reed Sheppard. The first three are small forward options, while Sheppard would eventually replace Kennard as a bench shooter. Going with a center just to go with a center would be a mistake. If it’s not Clingan or Alex Sarr, pick the best wing or shooter and keep it moving.

The other place Memphis could get active is on the trade market. The Grizzlies aren’t likely to part with any of their core players, but they’ve got a lot of smaller salaries they could stack together in a deal. Consolidating some former draftees to fill a need would be smart business.

The Grizzlies are a good team that had a disaster season. It happens. The key is to just get back to it. This team doesn’t need to take homerun swings this offseason. Staying the course, rounding out the rotation here and there, and trusting your process is important.

Getting impatient now, because of one bad year, could put the Grizzlies in a spot where they never end up being quite good enough, while having cashed in assets to get to that decidedly average place. Get your guys healthy, keep your terrific coach (seriously, Taylor Jenkins is great) and get back to competing. Everything is still in place, even if it all went missing for a year.

Portland Trail Blazers

Offseason Approach:Continuing rebuild, while moving veterans for the future

Actual Cap Space: -$53.6M

Practical Cap Space: -$47.5M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$7.1M

Under Contract (13): FULL ROSTER
Deandre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon, Toumani Camara (non-guaranteed), Jerami Grant, Scoot Henderson, Kris Murray, Duop Reath, Rayan Rupert, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons, Matisse Thybulle, Jabari Walker (non-guaranteed), Robert Williams III

Potential Free Agents (5): FULL LIST
Ibou Badji (restricted – two-way), Dalano Banton (restricted – team option), Moses Brown (unrestricted), Ashton Hagans (restricted – two-way), Justin Minaya (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (2): Eric Bledsoe ($1,300,000), Didi Louzada ($268,032)

Projected Signing Exceptions: Taxpayer MLE ($5,183,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Damian Lillard ($8,778,377)

First Round Draft Picks:  #7, #14

Notable Extension Candidates: Deandre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon, Anfernee Simons, Jabari Walker, Robert Williams III

Post-Lottery Analysis: 

Moving back from the fourth pick to the seventh pick doesn’t change much for the Trail Blazers. Portland now has a bit less of a tax burden to potentially deal with, even if it still needs to be dealt with. And the Blazers should be in range to get the same type of player in the draft, despite sliding back a few picks.

Analysis: 

The post-Damian Lillard era got off to the expected start for the Portland Tral Blazers. Well, more or less.

No one probably expected Portland to be quite this bad. The Blazers had a lot of solid veterans in place to open the season. However, none of Deandre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons or Robert Williams III appeared in more than 55 games. That lack of availability was too much for the young players to overcome and Portland fell off to the NBA’s third-worst record.

Now, we’re here. The above list has too many injury questions to try and sell anyone that maybe they coalesce into a postseason contender next season. That means Joe Cronin and the front office have to go from resetting to rebuilding.

As it stands, the Trail Blazers project to be about $9.6 million over the luxury tax line at the start of the offseason.

Let that sink in for a moment…That’s over the luxury tax. Not the cap, but the tax. For a team that won only 21 games this season.

Simply put: That’s not going to fly. Changes are going to come.

If we’re being reasonable, the only players who can probably feel really good about returning to Portland next season are Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Jabari Walker, Toumani Camara, Kris Murray, Duop Reath, Rayan Rupert and maybe Dalano Banton.

The above players are all on rookie scale contracts or make around the minimum. They’re all likely safe.

That means that every veteran the Blazers have should be up for trade consideration. However, there are levels to this.

To start with, Portland shouldn’t be attaching assets to get off any of their contracts. Nor should they have to. As a collective, this group makes too much money. As individuals, none are massively overpaid. That should put Cronin in a good position to get decent returns for any of the players he looks to move.

Then you have the guys who the Trail Blazers don’t really have to move. Simons and Ayton are young enough to keep building with. Thybulle is on a really fair-value contract, so he’s not someone who has to go either.

That leaves the group of Brogdon, Grant and Williams. All three of these players should be very available in trade talks this summer.

Brogdon is the easiest. He plays a position where Portland has younger players who need minutes. The 2023 Sixth Man of the Year is also a consistent injury-risk. And he’s on an expiring contract. Brogdon’s game is very plug-and-play for just about any contender that needs backcourt help. Portland can, and should, find a reasonable trade here.

Williams is probably the next easiest to project. If Ayton is the long-term guy up front, or even the for-now guy, Williams doesn’t really fit as a frontcourt partner. And that’s before factoring in that Williams has missed a lot of time due to injuries. Williams isn’t really a must-trade, but if the right deal comes along, Cronin should jump on it.

Then we get to Grant. Sure, his re-signing last summer ended up being kind of odd, because the Blazers committed big money to him and then Lillard asked for a trade. But Grant delivered when he played. He averaged 21 points on 45/40/82 shooting splits. His rebounding fell off some, but not by an alarming amount. And Grant’s health situation seemed to be more tied to the team being bad than it was anything to truly be concerned about long-term.

On the flip side, Grant is 30 years old now and he’s owed $132.4 million through 2027-28. That’s tough to swallow when, he’s a few years older than any other key Trail Blazer and he’s easily the highest-paid player on the team.

Portland can’t, and shouldn’t, attach assets to get off of Grant’s deal. That doesn’t make sense. He’s still a good player, and despite the contract being big, it’s not immovable or bad. This is one where Cronin might need to get a little creative. Maybe he can swap Grant’s contract for some undesirable money from another team, which should increase the return package in terms of draft picks or young players.

As for the rest of the summer, free agency should be a fairly non-event. As we’ve covered above, Portland might not have much money to spend or a whole lot of wiggle room around the luxury tax. That takes them out of adding much talent via free agency.

Of their own free agents, none of the two-way players have popped enough to be must-keep guys. Justin Minaya is probably closest, and he’s a candidate for another two-way deal.

That leaves only Dalano Banton and Moses Brown. Brown remains intriguing for his size and athleticism combo. But in a year where Portland had minutes, he never grabbed them. He’s replaceable or back on a minimum deal.

Banton is a different story. He was a trade deadline salary-dump by Boston, but played pretty well for Portland. This is a classic “beware good numbers on a bad team in the last two months” situation, but Banton showed enough that picking up his option for $2.2 million is smart business.

Toumani Camara and Jabari Walker both have non-guaranteed deals, but both should end up guaranteed. They look like NBA rotation guys, and Portland needs as many of those as they can find, especially on minimum-type contracts.

The Trail Blazers should have two picks in the draft. They’ll have their own, which will be either the third or fourth pick pre-lottery, pending a drawing with the Charlotte Hornets (The teams tied and will split the ping pong balls, but the pre-lottery position is decided by a random drawing.)

Portland’s second pick is a bit more complex, as it’s coming from the Golden State Warriors. First off, the pick is top-four protected. Second, the Warriors are in the Western Conference Play-In Tournament. If they win their way into the playoffs, the Blazers will likely get the 15th or 16th pick. If the Warriors miss the playoffs, they are also subject to random drawing and the pick will land somewhere between 12th and 14th for Portland.

With the higher selection, Portland should be open to any of the bigs or wings on the board. That means Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, Donovan Clingan or Matas Buzelis. It’s not that Rob Dillingham, Nikola Topic or Reed Sheppard should be off the board, but doubling down on lead ballhandlers a year after selecting Scoot Henderson seems like a bad use of a high pick.

The second first-round pick, considering it’s likely to be in the early-teens, can be more of an upside play. If Cronin goes with a wing, maybe he goes with a big with the second pick, or vice-versa. Either way, the Trail Blazers should come away with two interesting young players.

This summer for Portland is really about setting the stage for what’s to come. Under no circumstances can this team be over the tax. Yes, they’d have until the trade deadline to solve that issue, but that gets tricky because of salary-matching rules in trades. For a team in the Trail Blazers situation, they should be getting out of the tax in July.

Of course, that means going younger, but that’s where things are likely headed anyway. This team, for better or for worse, is going as far as Henderson, Sharpe and Simons take them, with the 2024 draft picks and maybe Ayton in the mix. That’s fine, and even if it means another rough year, that’s probably for the best. With players like Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, Khaman Maluach and others waiting in the 2025 NBA Draft, another rough year should come with a big payoff.

Detroit Pistons

Offseason Approach:Still rebuilding, but need to get it right this summer

Actual Cap Space: -$14.7M

Practical Cap Space: $64.4M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $103.4M

Under Contract (8): FULL ROSTER
Buddy Boeheim (two-way), Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, Tosan Evbuomwan (two-way), Quentin Grimes, Jaden Ivey, Marcus Sasser, Isaiah Stewart II, Ausar Thompson

Potential Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Troy Brown Jr. (unrestricted – team option), Malachi Flynn (restricted), Simone Fontecchio (restricted), Evan Fournier (unrestricted – team option), Taj Gibson (unrestricted), Chimezie Metu (unrestricted – team option), Jared Rhoden (restricted – two-way), Stanley Umude (restricted – team option), James Wiseman (restricted)

Dead Cap (1): Dewayne Dedmon ($2,748,674)

Projected Signing Exceptions: Room Exception ($8,006,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #5

Notable Extension Candidates: Cade Cunningham (rookie scale), Quentin Grimes (rookie scale)

Post-Lottery Analysis: 

Oh…Pistons. Sigh. The lottery seems to hate Detroit, as they dropped the maximum number of spots from first overall to fifth overall for a second consecutive year. On the bright side, if there was ever a year to drop, it’s this one. There aren’t “can’t miss” prospects at the top of this draft, and Detroit will still come away with a good player with the fifth pick.

On the brighter side, at least hopefully, is that the Pistons will have an additional $4.3 million cap space. That pushes Detroit up to $64.4 million in cap space, which tops our projections for this summer. Now, it’s all about spending that cap space wisely.

Analysis: 

Here we go again.

The Detroit Pistons have a ton of cap space, some intriguing young players and a high draft pick. We’ve been here before, a few times actually, and there’s not a whole lot to show for it.

Troy Weaver took over the Pistons front office ahead of the 2020 offseason. Weaver immediately commenced a full-scale teardown of Detroit’s roster. It was time and the moves were largely applauded.

Four years later, Detroit has the worst record in the league for a second consecutive season. Even worse, the Pistons haven’t been better than the third-worst team in the NBA over the last four seasons. What started out as a promising rebuild has descended to the point where fans ask “Will we ever be good again?”

This summer, it’s imperative that the Pistons get it right. If ownership gives Weaver another crack at it, he has to do better than his approach of the previous four offseasons. Detroit can’t have another summer of simply taking on other team’s bad contracts for middling assets, while hoping their own young players make huge leaps in development.

Let’s start there: What exactly are the Pistons building around?

We’ll argue that Detroit that has three building blocks and some other promising younger talent. The building blocks are Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson. And their importance to the organization’s future is in that order too.

This season has been a major step forward for Cunningham. He’s largely stayed healthy, he’s been far more efficient, and all the hopes of him being a primary scorer/playmaker have been realized.

Duren’s second season has also been a big step forward. He’s held up defensively on a team where defense is often in short supply. Duren is a beast around the rim on both ends. He’s also an improved passer, and a good running mate for Cunningham.

The third player is rookie wing Thompson. This season has had some fits and starts, but Thompson has been what Detroit hoped for. He’s already a good defender. He’s a pretty good passer for a young player and he plays with high energy. The question is the jumper. If it comes along to even an average point, Thompson could become an All-Star. If it doesn’t, he’s still a solid starter who will stuff the box score.

Beyond those three, Jaden Ivey, Quentin Grimes, Marcus Sasser and Isaiah Stewart II also still have promise.

Ivey had a weird season because it took Monty Williams roughly half of the year to figure out that Ivey is one of his better players. We’re betting Ivey will get back to being the guy who is at worst a very good third guard, but more likely a solid starter.

Sasser and Stewart are probably best as backups on a good team, but that’s fine. Sasser can be a high-end backup point guard, while Stewart is an ideal third big.

That leaves Grimes. We barely got to see him in Detroit, after the deadline trade from New York. This one really depends on which version of Grimes you believe. If you think he’s going to be the one who hit for 47/39/80 shooting splits as a sophomore, then Grimes is your guy. If you think he’s the shaky shooter we’ve seen in the two years sandwiching that second season, then Grimes is probably not someone you invest much in.

When it comes to Cunningham and Grimes, the Pistons have some immediate decisions to make for both players, as they are eligible for rookie scale extensions this summer. In many ways, these decisions are as important, if not more so, than what Detroit does with their draft pick and cap space this offseason.

Cunningham seems like a no-brainer to extend. He’s shown he can be the kind of guy that can lead your offense. Cunningham’s size allows you to go all kinds of ways with your roster construction around him, because you can plug in just about any style of player on the perimeter with him.

But is that worth a rookie scale max extension that currently projects to $224.9 million over five years? The thought here is: Yes.

It’s not so much about believing that Cunningham is a surefire max player. It’s more about what he should be, and that is a max player who is pushing for All-Star nods during that next deal. The challenge is that he’s not there today. But that’s why the Pistons should be able to get Cunningham for a straight max vs the Designated Player max that would bump his deal up to 30% of the cap and nearly $270 million over five years.

If a straight max is too much, Detroit could propose a Desmond Bane-like max where, Cunningham has some incentives he can reach that would push him to a max deal. That could be a reasonable compromise, if the Pistons get queasy about offering the full max.

As for Grimes, this one is really tricky. If you think he can be the guy he was a year ago, you want to extend him. His size, shooting and defense makes him a nice fit in a perimeter trio with Cunningham and Thompson as starters, and with Cunningham, Ivey and Sasser in the backcourt rotation.

It used to be that a player like Grimes wouldn’t get extended. There simply wasn’t enough surety there to feel good about committing big money, and the player wouldn’t take any kind of discount. The idea was that the player would bet on themselves, while the team could still control the process in restricted free agency.

We’ve seen a change in the extension winds though. A good comp for Grimes is Aaron Nesmith. He was in a similar spot as far as having potential, but being a question mark. Nesmith signed for $33 million over three seasons. If we bump Grimes a touch over that, something in the range of $36 to $48 million over three to four years makes sense.

Before extensions can even be offered, Detroit will have a draft pick to make. The lottery wasn’t kind to Pistons last season, but as it stands now, they project to have the first overall pick in 2024. Unfortunately, this is a rough season to have the first pick.

It seems like Detroit will be choosing between Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr, if they land with the first pick. Risacher is a do-everything wing with an uncertain jumper. Sarr is a combo big, who will probably need a few years to develop. Either guy is a project.

Getting the draft pick correct is important, obviously, but it’s a hard year without a can’t-miss prospect at the top of the draft. That means Detroit probably needs to look elsewhere for immediate help.

That leaves us with the Pistons cap space. And the Pistons have oh so much cap space.

We’re projecting Detroit to have just over $60 million in cap space. That means basically clearing the decks of almost everyone who doesn’t have a guaranteed salary for next season. The toughest decision there is James Wiseman, but his cap hold is simply too large to work around. And issuing Wiseman a qualifying offer seems like just lighting some money on fire.

It seems likely that Simone Fontecchio will be given a $5.2 million qualifying offer (this is already factored into the $60 million cap space projection). Fontecchio had a strong season, Detroit can use his shooting and he plays a position of need.

That leaves us with free agency. Detroit has a young lead playmaker, a young center, a young wing and young guards. That leaves the power forward position as the biggest need in free agency.

There’s been speculation that the Pistons might look for a reunion with Tobias Harris. It’s not the worst idea, provided the contract was reasonable enough. Harris will be 32 years old at the start of next season, but he’s still a reliable shooter and scorer. He’d help open up the floor some for Cunningham, Duren and the others. If Detroit kept it to a shorter offer for around $20 to $25 million AAV, that’s reasonable. It’s hard for a contract that short to turn sour, and the Pistons would still have plenty of remaining cap space to play with.

After Harris, a lot of free agent power forwards are either unrealistic (LeBron James, Pascal Siakam) or they aren’t worth spending big on. One outside-of-the-box idea could be to chase Patrick Williams in restricted free agency. The Chicago Bulls might not be willing to match a big enough offer for Williams, and he has the kind of game that would fit in nicely with Cunningham, Duren and Thompson.

Some have suggested the Detroit go after bringing Miles Bridges home, but that seems like it’s the kind of potential bad PR the team might want to avoid. On court only, the fit is great. But are the questions that would come with signing Bridges worth it? More affordable options for adding some shooting at the forward spot include Taurean Prince, Caleb Martin or Royce O’Neale.

If Detroit wanted to go smaller to add shooters, they could go after Grayson Allen, Malik Monk, Gary Trent Jr. or Buddy Hield. That would create some overlap in the backcourt, but that’s something the Pistons can figure out down the line.

Overall, this is a tough offseason to project for the Pistons. For one, we don’t know if Troy Weaver will be running the show or not. If he is, we can’t really go off what he’s done in the past, because there is clearly some impatience that has developed. That often leads to questionable, shortsighted, quick-fix moves.

It’s hard to tell Pistons fans to be ok with another season of losing, but that’s probably what’s actually best. Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey would look great alongside Detroit’s other young players. But will ownership and the front office have the stomach to eat another terrible season? Will the players improve enough that the Pistons won’t be bad enough to get one of the 2025 top prospects?

Expect some veteran signings, maybe a trade or two and some upgrades to the rotation. It probably won’t push Detroit to postseason contention, but they should be more competitive, while being in position to land another high pick. Five years of being bad is really hard to sign up for, even if it might be what’s best in the long run.

Washington Wizards

Offseason Approach: Keep moving forward with the long-awaited rebuild

Actual Cap Space: -$72M

Practical Cap Space: -$72M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $29M

Under Contract (11): FULL ROSTER
Deni Avdija, Marvin Bagley III, Patrick Baldwin Jr., Justin Champagnie (two-way), Bilal Coulibaly, Johnny Davis, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma, Eugene Omoruyi (non-guaranteed), Jordan Poole, Landry Shamet (non-guaranteed)

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Jules Bernard (restricted – two-way), Jared Butler (restricted – two-way), Anthony Gill (unrestricted), Richaun Holmes (unrestricted – player option), Tyus Jones (unrestricted), Isaiah Livers (restricted), Tristan Vukcevic (restricted – team option)

Dead Cap (1): Ryan Rollins ($600,000)

Projected Signing Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12,859,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,681,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Daniel Gafford ($12,402,000), Monte Morris ($9,800,926), Mike Muscala ($3,500,00)

First Round Draft Picks: #2, #26

Notable Extension Candidates: Corey Kispert (rookie scale)

Analysis: 

The Wizards finally did it. Last summer, Washington ripped the band-aid off and started a long-awaited rebuild. No more chasing the eighth seed. This is a new day.

What’s followed was predictable. The Wizards are terrible. Not only does Washington lose a lot, they get destroyed a lot too. But this was all part of the plan, and it’s a plan that was asked for, even begged for, by Wizards fans.

Now, it’s about keeping things moving.

Washington doesn’t have a lot of big free agent decisions this summer. Richaun Holmes is a virtual lock to pick up his player option. Tristan Vukcevic will likely have his team option declined before the Wizards sign him to a long-term contract.

That leaves Tyus Jones as the only real decision point. And it’s kind of a big one for the Wizards.

Jones has had a really productive season. As a first-time starter, Jones has put up career-highs nearly across the board. He’s also shot the ball better than ever. At best, Jones is a middle-of-the-pack starter. At worst, he’s the best backup point guard in the NBA. That’s a pretty good range to sit in.

But what value does that have to a rebuilding Wizards team? Having good backups on a rebuilding team is akin to having a good closer on a bad baseball team. What’s the point?

However, Jones wouldn’t be a backup for these Wizards. He’d be the starter again. Washington doesn’t have another quality point guard on the roster.

Johnny Davis hasn’t developed even a little since a disastrous rookie season. It’s worth noting that the current Wizards front office didn’t draft Davis. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them move him to another team to see if the Wisconsin product can figure it out elsewhere.

Jordan Poole isn’t the answer at point guard either, even if he’s covered it when Jones has missed time. Poole actually might not be the answer to any questions for the Wizards. In a season of misery, Poole has arguably had the most miserable season at all. The three years and $95.5 million left on his deal through 2026-27 loom as the front office’s biggest item to work around by a wide margin.

That brings us back to Jones. Washington could pick a point guard in the draft, but that’s potentially a slight reach, and it’s not like the team has other positions fully figured out either. And even if the Wizards select a lead guard, they might still want a veteran to help shepherd things forward.

In a vacuum, Jones is probably worth $17-20 million AAV on a new deal. He’s only going to be 28 years old, so Jones should be plenty of productive seasons left. Washington could do a deal similar to Kyle Kuzma’s where it’s frontloaded and declines season over season. That would make sense for a team that will still be looking for a long-term answer at point guard. That type of contract would retain Jones now, while keeping him on a very tradable salary moving forward.

The rest of the team’s free agents are probably 50/50 on sticking around. All are fringe NBA players. If the Wizards want to fill a spot or two with a familiar player, they might re-sign someone. But these are minimum-salary and two-way players who are all replacement level.

The other big item of business this summer is a potential contract extension for Corey Kispert. It used to be that a nice, but not amazing, role player wouldn’t do a rookie scale extension. It just didn’t make sense for the player to risk leaving any money on the table, in case of a breakout season.

The last couple of years have changed things quite a bit. In Washington, we saw Deni Avdija sign a perfectly reasonable four-year, $55 million extension. It was even a declining deal, which the Wizards new front office seems to like.

That means Kispert could be a candidate to sign an extension, whereas we would have largely written off the possibility before. The Gonzaga product is an excellent shooter, but he’s shown signs of being more than just a designated shooter. Kispert has done more off-the-dribble stuff this season and he’s held up ok defensively.

Shooting is a skill that teams will pay for, so Washington may not want this to get to a potentially tricky restricted free agency situation in 2025. Something in the range of $40-44 million over four years seems reasonable for Kispert. As he’s already 25 years old, he could even do a deal that runs five years for $50-$60 million. Reminder: five-year, non-max deals are now allowed under the new CBA.

Contract situations for Jones and Kispert are really secondary items to what’s really important for Washington though. The Wizards have to hit on their draft pick. Barring some really unfortunate lottery luck, Washington is going to have the first or second pick in the draft.

Bilal Coulibaly was a terrific, high upside pick last season. Because Coulibaly is a wing, that gives the Wizards lots of optionality for building around him. Between that and picking so high means the entire draft board is in play.

If Washington wants to go big, Alex Sarr could be the guy. He’s the best forward/center prospect in the class. If they want to really firm up their future on the wing, Zaccharie Risacher could be the pick. He’s considered the top wing and would be an interesting pairing alongside Coulibaly. If point guard is simply too big a need to pass on, Rob Dillingham, Nikola Topic and Reed Sheppard should all be in the mix.

Keeping it simple: Options abound for the Wizards. Getting the right guy is important, even if this class doesn’t have any “can’t miss” stars. The team has a second first-rounder this year too. That one can be more of a “take a shot and hope to find gold” type of selection.

Mostly, this offseason for Washington is about continuing to keep things moving forward. Expect plenty of trade rumors involving Kyle Kuzma. He’s a good player on a good contract. That will always draw in some interested parties. Maybe the team can find a way to spin Poole off to someone else, but that’s probably another year or two away from being a real thing.

When the Wizards traded for Marvin Bagley III in mid-January and then added Richaun Holmes at the trade deadline, those were signs that they weren’t pursuing cap space this summer. And that was a sign the franchise is in for the long haul with the rebuild. It might not be exciting just yet, but for a team that has tried quick fix after quick fix for decades, being patient and not skipping steps is a welcomed approach.

San Antonio Spurs

Offseason Approach: Adding talent and shooting around Victor Wembanyama

Actual Cap Space: -$12.5M

Practical Cap Space: $21.3M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $52.8M

Under Contract (9): FULL ROSTER
Charles Bassey (non-guaranteed), Jamaree Bouyea (two-way), Malaki Branham, Justin Champagnie (non-guaranteed), Sidy Cissoko, Zach Collins, Devonte’ Graham (partially guaranteed), RaiQuan Gray (two-way), Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama, Blake Wesley

Potential Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Dominick Barlow (restricted), David Duke Jr. (restricted – two-way), Sandro Mamukelashvili (restricted), Cedi Osman (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Room Exception ($8,006,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #4, #8

Notable Extension Candidates: None

Post-Lottery Analysis: 

The Spurs got a little lucky when the Raptors pick dropped in the lottery and conveyed to San Antonio. Now, the Spurs have two first-round picks to further their talent-adding efforts around Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio can either select two more prospects to add to an exciting young core, or they could package those picks in trade offers. Things are very wide open for the Spurs, and now they have an additional immediate asset to work with.

Financially, adding the additional pick puts about $6.3 million on the books. That’s fine. The Spurs still project to have over $20 million in cap space to work with, and their cap sheet remains very clean moving forward.

Analysis: 

The Spurs hit the jackpot with Victor Wembanyama. He’s been everything they could have hoped for, and probably a whole lot more. Wembanyama is already a destructive defensive force, and he’s figured out things on offense a lot quicker than most expected.

More simply put: San Antonio has their franchise centerpiece to build around.

That leads us to the next question: How long will Wembanyama tolerate being near the bottom of the standings?

Some speculation, mixed with Wembanyama’s past team-hopping, seems to suggest that the answer is: Not long. However, that seems to miss some context.

Sure, Wembanyama isn’t going to want to be approaching extension talks wondering when the Spurs will be in contention for even the Play-In Tournament. But he doesn’t seem to be putting pressure on the team to start adding win-now veterans either. Wembanyama seems to get that San Antonio has at least one more year of rebuilding to come.

And that’s good, because this team is pretty bad right now. The key though, the Spurs seem to be “young team that is trying to figure it out on fly” bad vs just having a messy roster and a bunch of questionable contracts. You can work with the former a lot easier than the latter.

Wembanyama is a lock to slot in somewhere in the frontcourt. For now, that’s at center, but he has the game where he could slide over to the four, if the right frontcourt partner comes along. The only other long-term lock on the roster seems to be Devin Vassell at one of the wing spots. Vassell is the team’s best off-the-dribble scorer, best shooter and the rest of his game is rounding out nicely too.

That leaves a whole lot of questions. Some of which have answers. Zach Collins didn’t really work starting next to Wembanyama, but he’s fine as a backup center who can occasionally play with the Spurs young star. Is Collins overpaid some? Yes, but that’s fine. San Antonio has to spend the money somewhere and the contract is far from bad.

Keldon Johnson is a solid player, and he’s signed to a fair-value contract for three more seasons. Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley have both shown flashes of what they could become, but have a ways to go as young players. Julian Champagnie could stick or get waived to open up cap space. Either way, he’s fine but not someone key roster decisions will be made around.

Jeremy Sochan and Tre Jones are kind of tied together. Gregg Popovich tried his best to make Sochan a point guard, and it failed pretty spectacularly. The good news? Nothing was gained, nothing was really lost. And now the Spurs know that Sochan is a jack-of-all-trades forward vs a supersized lead guard. Now, about that jumper…

As for Jones, he’s probably a bit miscast as a starting point guard. Ideally, Jones would be a fairly high-end backup. But he’s been solid as a starter this season. He’s had a massive impact on Wembanyama, Vassell and the Spurs other starters. Everything just flows a lot better with Jones in there.

And that’s where the Spurs offseason focus should land.

San Antonio needs a long-term answer at point guard. Jones is only under contract through 2024-25, and we’ve already established that he’s probably not the lead guard the Spurs really need. But Jones’ presence as just an actual point guard does tell us how badly the team needs an answer at this position.

Unfortunately, despite having about $25 million to spend in free agency, this isn’t the class to find that long-term answer. Most of the top free agent point guards (Tyrese Maxey, James Harden, Jrue Holiday, Immanuel Quickley) aren’t expected to leave their current teams. That means looking at the next tier down. Players like D’Angelo Russell, Markelle Fultz, Tyus Jones, Spencer Dinwiddie and Russell Westbrook are all solid, but none would be more than a stopgap option.

That leads us to the NBA Draft, where options abound. Rob Dillingham is the top-rated point guard. He’s more scorer than playmaker right now, but that’s true of most young guards. Dillingham looks like he’ll be a Day 1 starter, and Kentucky has a pretty good history of cranking out guards that can play.

Right behind Dillingham is Nikola Topic. He’s the kind of big guard teams are always looking for. He’s an outstanding playmaker, rebounder and defender. The challenge is that he’s got a shaky jumper, but that’s something that could develop with time and work. Given the Spurs affinity for drafting and developing European players over the years, keep an eye on Topic here.

If the Spurs fall back in the lottery with some bad luck, they could choose between Reed Sheppard and Isaiah Collier. Sheppard is more of a shooter/scorer, but he can really shoot and his size makes him a point guard defensively. He’d fit in well, considering a lot of the offense will run through Wembanyama, Vassell and Sochan.

Collier has been all over the draft board. At one point, he looked like the top prospect in the class. Now, he’s a mid-lottery guy. That reflects the very up-and-down season he had at USC. But Collier’s size and physical gifts are hard to overlook.

The key here is that the Spurs should be able to add a young point guard to pair with Wembanyama for years to come. Finding someone who can make the game easier for the young star, while also playing off the big man, is the main thing San Antonio has to answer.

Also, because it has to be noted, the Spurs could end up with a second lottery pick. If the Toronto Raptors pick falls at seven or below, it will go to San Antonio. Right now, that pick is sitting at six, so it’s straddling that line pretty closely. Likely, we won’t know until the Draft Lottery on that one.

As for other needs, the Spurs have a somewhat full roster. Most of the players are developing prospects, but that’s ok. Assuming they move on from Devonte’ Graham (while eating $2.85 million), San Antonio should have $22 to $25 million to spend. Assuming they aren’t chasing a veteran point guard, the Spurs should be looking to add some shooting.

This season, San Antonio is 12th in three-point attempt rate, but they are 30th in accuracy. Only Vassell has had a good shooting season of those players that are locks to return. That leaves a lot of room for improvement. The good news? This free agent class has lots of shooters available.

Because they aren’t looking to fill a bunch of roster spots, and the cap sheet is still pretty clean, the Spurs could overpay a veteran shooter, or even two of them, this summer. That’s a great place to be in. Opening up the floor for Wembanyama, Vassell and Sochan, and a likely rookie point guard, has to be a priority.

Available shooters that could fit include Klay Thompson, Buddy Hield, Grayson Allen, Malik Monk, Gary Trent Jr., Luke Kennard, Gary Harris, Gordon Hayward, Malik Beasley, Lonnie Walker IV and a handful of others. That’s a pretty wide-ranging list and some are definitely more exciting than others. Some will demand big money, while others will be available for value deals. The significant takeaway: The Spurs can, and need to, find some shooting this offseason.

San Antonio’s future is as bright as that of any team in the league, simply because of Wembanyama. He’s already that good. The Spurs don’t need to rush the process of trying to put veterans around him. They should have at least another year of rebuilding before things could even start to get contentious.

However, the Spurs have the opportunity to move things forward incrementally this summer. They need to nail their draft pick, get a point guard and add some shooting. The first two, and maybe even all three, could be an all-in-one thing. But all three have to be accomplished to add around the latest generational superstar big man in San Antonio, and the Spurs have every tool available to do it.

Keith SmithJune 20, 2024

We have our first big trade of the 2024 offseason! The Oklahoma City Thunder struck first and acquired Alex Caruso from the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls will acquire Josh Giddey in a rare one-for-one straight-up swap of players.

Here are the particulars:

Oklahoma City Thunder acquire: Alex Caruso

Chicago Bulls acquire: Josh Giddey

Let’s dive in!

Oklahoma City Thunder

Incoming salary: $9.9 million in 2024-25
Alex Caruso (SG, one year, $9.9 million)

Outgoing salary: $8.4 million in 2024-25
Josh Giddey (SG/SF, one year, $8.4 million)

The Thunder were the fourth-ranked defense in the NBA last season. Now, they add one of the NBA’s best perimeter defenders to mix. Good luck finding easy points on Oklahoma City. Alex Caruso was named to the All-Defensive Second Team, and very easily could have been named to the First Team. He’s capable of defending anyone 1-3. He excels at getting around screens, hounding ballhandlers and playing passing lanes. Caruso is the rare perimeter defender who can be a steals merchant, but without having to gamble to get his thefts. While Josh Giddey is a good defender, Caruso is an upgrade.

Here’s the real kicker: Caruso is a major upgrade over Giddey on offense.

Caruso is a better shooter than Giddey. By a very wide margin too. He won’t get played off the floor by opposing defenses ignoring him. He’s also a pretty good playmaker too. In addition, Caruso will help Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with some of the ballhandling duties. Any downgrade in playmaking and ballhandling from Giddey to Caruso will be offset by an upgrade in shooting.

One place Oklahoma City did downgrade in this trade is on the boards. Giddey was one of the Thunder’s better rebounders. Caruso isn’t on his level there. But that’s something Sam Presti should be able to address with further moves this offseason.

This trade is an absolute homerun for the Thunder. They’ll likely have extension conversations with Caruso as soon as possible. They’re eligible to offer him up to a four-year extension worth as much as $77.7 million this offseason. Given how aggressive Oklahoma City has been in locking up their own players, expect Caruso to be extended long before next season ends.

If all of that isn’t enough, there’s more good news for the Thunder. They only took on about $1.5 million in this trade. Presti should still have about $33.7 million in cap space to work with this summer. As we wrote in their Offseason Preview, Oklahoma City has only one, or maybe two, rotation spots to fill.

The Oklahoma City Thunder were already really good and had the flexibility to add to their roster this summer. Now, they’re already better, and still have the flexibility to add to their roster.. That’s scary for a team that was the top seed in the Western Conference this past season.

(Minor note: Caruso’s deal is technically only guaranteed for $3 million for next season. But it will end up becoming fully guaranteed upon completion of this deal.)

Chicago Bulls

Incoming salary: $8.4 million in 2024-25
Josh Giddey (SG/SF, one year, $8.4 million)

Outgoing salary: $9.9 million in 2024-25
Alex Caruso (SG, one year, $9.9 million)

The Chicago Bulls remain one of the more confusing teams. Not just entering this offseason, but period. The Bulls reportedly had offers that included at least one future first-round pick for Alex Caruso at the trade deadline. It’s not that Josh Giddey is a bad player, but Chicago should have taken draft picks if offered.

Chicago will save a little bit of money for next season. But they aren’t a cap space team, and they aren’t so close to the tax line that $1.5 million will make that big of a difference. If any motivation in this deal was about saving money, that doesn’t make much sense as things are currently constructed.

In Giddey, the Bulls add a versatile player. Giddey has shown the ability to guard 2-4, which is helpful. He’s also a very good rebounder for his position, along with being a very good playmaker. He’s got a nice all-around game that is versatile enough to fit with different players and in different schemes.

That being said…Giddey can’t shoot. The Bulls are already light on shooting and this make them even worse with their floor spacing.

Giddey is a good playmaker, but Chicago has made it clear they would like to re-sign DeMar DeRozan. If they do, he’s going to have the ball a lot. The Bulls also expect to have Lonzo Ball back. Ball’s main skill is his passing and ballhandling. In addition, Chicago has Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu on the roster as ballhandlers and scoring guards.

Essentially: Giddey’s best skills aren’t in demand in the Chicago the way they were needed in Oklahoma City.

Giddey is eligible for a rookie scale extension. We kind of saw a trade coming for that season. The Thunder, who have other major extensions coming down the pike, now don’t have to deal with a new deal for Giddey.

The Bulls do. And in order for this trade to make sense at all, Chicago needs to get Giddey signed to a solid deal. Something in the range of four years and $90 to $100 million (possibly with some incentives around three-point shooting) probably makes sense. That might seem pricey, but remember where the cap is headed. $22 to $25 million will be less than 17% of the cap. Giddey has his flaws, but he’s worth investing that much in for his all-around ability.

There’s also a chance this trade signals that maybe the Bulls are headed in a different direction. Maybe they won’t re-sign DeRozan to a big deal. Maybe they’ll trade Zach LaVine for youth and cap flexibility. Maybe they’ll find a trade for Nikola Vucevic. If so, then this deal makes a lot more sense and becomes easier to swallow.

One final thing: The Bulls made this trade with the Thunder. Oklahoma City has more draft picks than they could possibly ever use. How does Chicago not come away with at least a protected first-round pick or a couple of second-round picks? This trade would be a lot more palatable with some draft compensation headed the Bulls way.

For now, the Chicago Bulls remain confusing. But the rest of this summer may bring a lot more clarity with subsequent roster decisions. However, given past history, don’t hold your breath waiting for that clarity to come.

 

Keith SmithJune 20, 2024

A handful of players got a jump on “option season” already. Lonzo Ball of the Chicago Bulls and Christian Wood of the Los Angeles Lakers picked up their player options several weeks ago. Gary Payton II of the Golden State Warriors joined them this week.

As a point of order, a player or team option isn’t really declined. It’s simply not exercised. A player must exercise, or opt in, to his option year, while a team must take the same action when they have control. The lone exception here is an Early Termination Option. For an ETO, a player must decline or opt out. No action would result in that player staying under contract.

With three decisions already made, we’re going to take a shot at predicting what happens with the remaining 50 player and team options.

(Note: This article does not include players on partial or non-guaranteed contracts. Although those are often referred to as options, they are a different thing. We’ll cover those in an upcoming article.)

Atlanta Hawks

Garrison Mathews - $2.2M team option

Mathews put together his best NBA season. He’s an elite shooter, even if he doesn’t offer much else. That skill for the minimum is worth it for the Hawks to pick up their option.

Boston Celtics

Oshae Brissett - $2.5M player option

Brissett gave the Celtics terrific energy off the bench. If he wants a bigger role, he may opt out and move to a new team. If Brissett is good with his role in Boston, he’ll be back. We’re assuming he’s back to try to win another title.

Sam Hauser - $2.1M team option

Hauser is an elite shooter and a better-than-you-think defender. He also started to do some things off the dribble this season too. If Boston wants to keep their tax bill down, they’ll pick up Hauser’s option. The challenge is that will make him an unrestricted free agent next summer. The other possibility for Boston is to decline their team option, and make Hauser a restricted free agent this summer. That would give the Celtics the chance to re-sign him on a long-term deal. Bet on the former, but then Hauser inking an extension before the end of next season.

Neemias Queta - $2.2M team option

Boston will pick up their option for Queta. The real question is if the big man will be the team’s third center next season or if he’ll be further down the depth chart. He’s definitely worth having around on the minimum though.

Brooklyn Nets

Keita Bates-Diop - $2.6M player option

Bates-Diop had a rough season between his time with the Nets and the Phoenix Suns. He’s better than what he showed at either stop. With the Nets prioritizing other players, Bates-Diop is likely to opt out and move on.

Charlotte Hornets

Davis Bertans - $16M player option

Bertans is a lock to pick up his option. His deal will then become partially guaranteed for $5.25 million. From there, it’s likely Charlotte will waive him to open up a roster spot and some additional cap flexibility.

J.T. Thor - $1.9M team option

The Hornets will pick up Thor’s option. He’s been a part of the rotation the last two seasons. For the minimum, that’s just smart business.

Chicago Bulls

Torrey Craig - $2.8M player option

Craig has become a pretty good 3&D player. He may not be a lock to get more than the minimum, but he should be able to find a role with a contender for at least the same money as he could make with the Bulls.

Cleveland Cavaliers

No pending options

Dallas Mavericks

No pending options

Denver Nuggets

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - $15.4M player option

Caldwell-Pope is going to opt out, but he’s likely to stay with the Nuggets. Look for him to re-sign on a deal that adds a couple of additional years for him to stay in Denver.

Vlatko Cancar - $2.3M team option

The Nuggets will pick up their option for Cancar. He looked to be headed for a big season off Denver’s bench before tearing his ACL over the summer. He’ll be in the rotation as a backup forward next season.

Reggie Jackson - $5.3M player option

Jackson isn’t going to opt out, because he won’t see that much money in free agency. He’ll be back for another year in Denver.

Detroit Pistons

Evan Fournier - $19M team option

The Pistons aren’t going to pick up Fournier’s option. Letting him go will be a part of clearing out $64 million in cap space. Fournier will then look to catch on with a team that can give him real minutes.

Chimezie Metu - $2.6M team option

Metu is in the same boat as Fournier. He’s going to have his option declined, then he’ll be renounced to create cap space. Unlike Fournier, Metu may be re-signed by Detroit, pending how the new front office feels about him.

Stanley Umude - $2.1M team option

Umude is in the exact same spot as Metu. His option will be declined to create cap space. But he could be re-signed, pending where the roster stands after Trajan Langdon does his other work.

Golden State Warriors

No pending options

Houston Rockets

Jeff Green - $8M team option

The Rockets aren’t likely to be a cap space team this summer. As such, they’ll pick up Green’s option. If nothing else, they’ll have additional couple of weeks to decide on keeping him, as his contract doesn’t guarantee until July 11.

Jae’Sean Tate - $7.6M team option

Houston will pick up Tate’s option. But given the Rockets are deep in forwards, they’ll likely shop him in trade talks this offseason and up to the trade deadline.

Indiana Pacers

Jalen Smith - $5.4M player option

Smith is likely to opt out. His role with the Pacers has been inconsistent, especially as Isaiah Jackson has emerged as Myles Turner’s backup. Smith will pursue a bigger role and more long-term money elsewhere.

LA Clippers

Paul George - $48.8M player option

George is going to opt out. That much is a certainty. What happens from there is getting increasingly interesting. It once felt like a lock that George would extend or re-sign with LA. Now, it seems like George may consider leaving town. This is THE situation to watch in free agency.

Kai Jones - $2.2M team option

The Clippers will pick up this option. They’ll want to have a full offseason to work with Jones and see if they can continue to help him get his career on track.

P.J. Tucker - $11.5M player option

Of every player this offseason, Tucker may be the lockiest of all locks to pick up his option. From there, maybe the Clippers try to move him in a trade for a rotation upgrade.

Russell Westbrook - $4M player option

Westbrook made some noise about possibly opting out and looking for a bigger role with another team. The chances of that happening seem fairly slim, however. Westbrook is best off picking up his option, but he’s rarely done what conventional wisdom says.

Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes - $2.5M player option

Hayes is right on the borderline of picking up his option or not. He’ll likely be on a minimum contract next season anyway. The real decision for Hayes is if he wants to be back with the Lakers or to move on.

LeBron James - $51.4M player option

James is going to opt out. After that, he’s probably staying with the Lakers on a new max deal…right? Or could the ultimate curveball be coming and James moves to a new team?

Cameron Reddish - $2.5M player option

Reddish is in the same situation as Hayes. If he wants to be a Laker, he’ll pick up his option. If he wants to go elsewhere, he won’t. Either way, Reddish will be on a minimum contract.

D’Angelo Russell - $18.7M player option

Russell is going to opt out. He’ll be looking for a long-term deal. He’s also going to be one of the better free agents available. That means Russell isn’t a lock to return to the Lakers.

Memphis Grizzlies

Luke Kennard - $14.8M team option

On its face, Kennard’s option should get picked up by Memphis. He’s worth nearly $15 million because of his shooting alone. But the Grizzlies are up against a whole new payroll level with their looming tax bill, in addition to running out of roster spots. That has it more like 50-50 on picking up Kennard’s option. Maybe there’s a deal or two in place to make it less of an issue. We’ll guess his option is picked up, and the Grizzlies figure it out down the line.

Yuta Watanabe - $2.6M player option

It’s been widely reported, including by Watanabe himself, that he plans to play in Japan next season. That will mean opting out of his deal.

Miami Heat

Thomas Bryant - $2.8M player option

Bryant is likely to opt out. He didn’t get much playing time this season, as Miami went with other options behind Bam Adebayo. He may seek a bigger role elsewhere, considering he’ll likely be on a minimum deal either way.

Kevin Love - $4M player option

Love is going to opt in. He won’t get more than a minimum deal if he opts out. He’s still got something left in the tank, but he’s more of a regular season backup than a key through-the-playoffs rotation guy now.

Caleb Martin - $7.1M player option

Martin will opt out. He’s got a chance to cash in for the first time in his career. He’ll be a sought-after 3&D wing. The real question is if Miami can re-sign him or not? The Heat don’t have a replacement lined up, but they are dealing with real tax apron issues. A big enough deal could pull Martin away from Miami.

Josh Richardson - $3.1M player option

Richardson will probably opt in. Had he not finished the season out with an injury, Richardson looked like an opt-out candidate. As it stands now, he’ll likely opt in and hope for a healthier season with the Heat next year.

Milwaukee Bucks

No pending options

Minnesota Timberwolves

No pending options

New Orleans Pelicans

Jose Alvarado - $1.9M team option

This is another situation that is like Sam Hauser’s. Alvarado is a key rotation guy for New Orleans, so there could be benefit to declining his option. The team could then re-sign Alvarado while controlling the process through restricted free agent. However, the Pelicans are up against the tax and would likely rather benefit from the smaller contract for next season. Pencil this option in as being picked up.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl - $2.2M team option

Robinson-Earl didn’t have a huge impact on the Pelicans last season. However, he did flash some ability to step in for some backup big minutes. That’s basically what he did for the Oklahoma City Thunder for two seasons too. For the minimum, on a team whose frontcourt is in transition, Robinson-Earl should stick around.

New York Knicks

OG Anunoby - $19.9M player option

Anunoby is going to opt out. The questions from there are:

Will he get anything approach a max deal?

Will that deal come from the Knicks or another team?

DaQuan Jeffries - $2.5M team option

Jeffries is clearly a player the Knicks like, because they’ve had him around for a couple of years on a few different contracts. This decision might be related to roster spots, more than Jeffries himself. The Knicks have three picks in the top-38 in this draft. They’ll need room for at least two of those players. That probably squeezes Jeffries out…for now.

Jericho Sims - $2.1M team option

The Knicks will pick up this option for Sims. He’s an ideal third center for them. He stays ready when his number is called, but doesn’t gripe when he doesn’t play. He also won’t be a priority free agent next summer, so there’s no need to speed up the process by making him a restricted free agent this offseason.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Isaiah Joe - $2.2M team option

This is one of the bigger locks on the board. The Thunder can’t make Joe a restricted free agent if they decline his option. OKC will also want to maximize cap space this summer. That means picking up this option. From there, keep an eye on a long-term extension for Joe before next season ends.

Lindy Waters III - $2.2M team option

The Thunder like Waters a lot. The challenge is that Oklahoma City is running out of roster spots. That, combined with a chance at a ton of cap space, probably leads to this option being declined. But don’t rule out a return to the roster down the line for Waters.

Aaron Wiggins - $1.9M team option

Wiggins is also in the Sam Hauser situation. He’s become a pretty good rotation guy for the Thunder. They might try to work out a long-term deal with him as a restricted free agent. They could also take a similar approach as to the one they’ll take with Joe, by picking up the option and hammering out an extension. Bet on the latter.

Orlando Magic

Joe Ingles - $11M team option

The Magic loved what Ingles brought to them as a veteran. He helped a young team grow up on and off the court. But $11 million is too steep for a team that has big dreams. This option will get declined, but don’t rule out Ingles re-signing after Orlando makes some bigger moves.

Moritz Wagner - $8M team option

Wagner is a key rotation player for Orlando. He was one of the best backup bigs in the NBA last season. He’ll be back, but probably after having this option declined. That way Orlando can use cap space, then re-sign Wagner, possibly via the $8 million Room Exception.

Philadelphia 76ers

Jeff Dowtin - $2.2M team option

The Sixers are looking to maximize cap space this summer. That means Dowtin likely has his option declined. There’s a slight chance his option is initially picked up, at which point his deal would become non-guaranteed. Then Dowtin could be waived later if Philadelphia needs the extra $2.2 million in space.

Phoenix Suns

Drew Eubanks - $2.6M player option

Eubanks is a little hard to predict. He could opt out and look for a deal with a different team. The Suns seem likely to bring in at least another option or two for backup center. But Eubanks is a minimum guy either way, and may want the security. This is more of a guess than anything, but Eubanks will probably opt out.

Eric Gordon - $3.4M player option

Gordon will opt out, but he might then re-sign immediately with the Suns. He could do a similar 1+1 situation with Phoenix, where he’d make the same money, but add an additional season.

Damion Lee - $2.8M player option

Lee missed all of last season with a knee injury. He’ll pick up his option and look be the knockdown shooter the Suns hoped he would be when they signed him last offseason.

Josh Okogie - $2.9M player option

Okogie will likely opt out. He’s not technically on a minimum deal, but he’s close. He could find a bigger role, and possibly more money, with another team. He may also run it back with the Suns on a year-to-year basis now.

Portland Trail Blazers

Dalano Banton - $2.2M team option

Banton played pretty well for Portland down the stretch last season. Was it a situation of good stats on a bad team with nothing to play for? Or was it a further sign of the talent Banton has previously flashed? The Blazers have tax issues (yes, despite being a bad team), so they might move on. But bet on them keeping Banton on this minimum deal, and solving tax issues in other ways.

Sacramento Kings

No pending options

San Antonio Spurs

No option decisions pending

Toronto Raptors

Bruce Brown - $23M team option

When the Raptors extended Kelly Olynyk late last season, it was a sign that they don’t intend to be a cap space team this summer. That means Brown will have this option picked up. Then he becomes a key trade chip this offseason and up to the trade deadline.

Utah Jazz

No option decisions pending

Washington Wizards

Richaun Holmes - $12.9M player option

Holmes is going to pick this option up. His once-promising career has stalled some. For that reason, Holmes isn’t going to give up on that much guaranteed salary.

Tristan Vukcevic - $2.4M team option

Vukcevic came over from Europe late last season. The contract he signed is designed for the Wizards to decline their option, but then re-sign Vukcevic to a long-term deal. Look for that to be the case, as the team can use his Non-Bird rights to give him up to a four-year contract.

 

Keith SmithJune 17, 2024

The 2021 NBA Draft class is eligible to sign Rookie Scale contract extensions this offseason. Each player has until late-October to agree to an extension. If no agreement is reached, the player will be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2025. A handful of players are ineligible to sign an extension, because they had team options declined or were waived at some point during their rookie scale contract.

By pick from that 2021 Draft, here’s where things stand for each player. We’ll also make a prediction on what happens before the late-October extension deadline.

For reference: The standard maximum extension (25% of the cap) these players can sign projects to be $224,895,000 over five years. The Designated Rookie Extension amount (30% of the cap) projects to be $269,874,000 over five years. We’re projecting this off a salary cap of $155.1 million for the 2025-26 season.

In order to qualify for the Designated Rookie Extension, a player must make All-NBA this coming season, or they can also qualify by winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year this coming season.

#1 Cade Cunningham – Detroit Pistons

Cunningham had a rough start to his career. He struggled some as a rookie, which is completely forgivable. His second year was a lost season due to injuries. In Year 3, Cunningham finally showed why he was the first overall pick in 2021. He was simply better in every facet of the game. The efficiency was better, the overall shooting improved and his playmaking took another leap. Cunningham is a franchise guy. Franchise guys get the max.

Prediction: Five years, $224,895,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $269,874,000, no options
Signed: 5 years, $224,238,150

#2 Jalen Green – Houston Rockets

Despite the counting stats improving in his sophomore season, Green was worse in Year 2 than he was as a rookie. In his third season, Green got back on track, especially in the second half of the year. Playing “real” basketball for the first time, Green showed he can contribute to winning. But he’s not a no-brainer max guy. The Rockets have big dreams, and if Green doesn’t get to star status, a max deal would become a cap-clogger. There’s a gap here that probably won’t be overcome. But, hey, that’s what restricted free agency is for on the back end. If Green pops this year, the Houston can max him out next summer.

Projection: No extension

#3 Evan Mobley – Cleveland Cavaliers

Mobley isn’t perfect. He’s still figuring things out, especially as a four. When he’s played the five, Mobley looks like a different, and better, player. This extension is as much about what Mobley might be and where the Cavs roster might go, as it is anything we’ve seen from player or team right now.

Projection: Five years, $224,895,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $269,874,000, no options
Signed: 5 years, $224,238,150

#4 Scottie Barnes – Toronto Raptors

Barnes is the Raptors franchise guy now. Toronto has traded away any other contenders for that crown. And, you know what? The Raptors were right. Barnes is the kind of all-around player everyone wants to build around. He’s a good defender, in addition to carrying a heavy offensive load. Barnes’ jumper keeps getting better every year too. That’s a no-questions-asked max player, with upside still in play.

Projection: Five years, $224,895,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $269,874,000, no options
Signed: 5 years, $224,238,150

#5 Jalen Suggs – Orlando Magic

Suggs first two years were full of fits and starts. He’d get going, then pick up an injury and have to start over. Year 3 was a pretty healthy year for Suggs, and he leveled up big time. Suggs had easily his best offensive season, and he was a menace defensively too. Most importantly, he showed he can play either guard position, which helps Orlando with roster construction. He’s not a max extension guy, but Suggs is going to get paid.

Projection: Four years, $112 million, no options

#6 Josh Giddey – Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC keeps things pretty quiet, as far as future plans go. That said, it seems like something has to give with the roster. Not in a bad way, but to take the next step. Feels like that something may involve Giddey getting traded. He was played off the floor for parts of the playoffs. Feels like the Thunder may deal him now and let another team figure out what to do with Giddey’s next contract.

Projection: No extension

#7 Jonathan Kuminga – Golden State Warriors

This one is tricky. Kuminga became a regular starter in his third season and put together his best season. He’s one of the younger players in this draft class too, so there’s still plenty of upside. But the Warriors are trying to rebalance their cap sheet too. The presumption here is that rebalancing is being done with extending Kuminga on a big, but non-max deal in mind.

Projection: Four years, $108 million, no options

#8 Franz Wagner – Orlando Magic

Despite a really rough shooting season, Wagner is a franchise cornerstone for Orlando. He’s a good all-around player on offense and a better defender than he gets credit for. He’s not quite at the no-brainer max level that Paolo Banchero will be a year from now, but he’s pretty close. We’re going to call this a “Desmond Bane” max, where Wagner gets just below the max in guaranteed, but can hit some incentives (some related to shooting) to get up to the full max.

Projection: Five years, $200,000,000 with nearly $22.5 million in incentives, no options
Signed: 5 years, $224,238,150

#9 Davion Mitchell – Sacramento Kings

Mitchell spent part of this season out of the Kings rotation. He’s never quite popped as hoped for. The good news? His three-point shot showed real improvement last year. The Kings will probably give this another year before handling things in restricted free agency next offseason.

Projection: No extension

#10 Ziaire Williams – Memphis Grizzlies

Williams came along late in his rookie season, but has gone through two injury-plagued years since. His shot hasn’t improved much either. Memphis is still looking for that star-level small forward, but has added some depth. With the roster getting full and expensive, Williams won’t get an extension.

Projection: No extension

#11 James Bouknight – Out of the NBA

Bouknight was waived by the Charlotte Hornets midway through last season. He’s yet to catch on with another NBA team.

#12 Joshua Primo – Out of the NBA

Primo was waived by the San Antonio Spurs in 2022. He spent part of last season with the LA Clippers before being waived in mid-April.

#13 Chris Duarte – Sacramento Kings

Duarte never built on a promising rookie season. He dealt with injuries in his second year, then had an inconsistent role with the Kings last season. Duarte would have to sign something so team-friendly that he’s better off betting on himself figuring it out.

Projection: No extension

#14 Moses Moody – Golden State Warriors

Moody has been a pretty steady player for the last couple of seasons. He’s a pretty shooter and a rugged defender. With the Warriors watching their payroll over the next couple of seasons, they may not want to commit to Moody long-term without making some other roster moves first.

Projection: No extension

#15 Corey Kispert – Washington Wizards

Kispert has improved each season. He showed more variety to his game in his third year, as he made shots off the dribble and flashed some playmaking skills. The Wizards got Deni Avdija on a very fair extension last year, and they’ll probably get Kispert on something similar this offseason.

Projection: Four years, $52 million, no options

#16 Alperen Sengun – Houston Rockets

The Rockets have a star in Sengun. He’s an excellent scorer, rebounder and passer. Sengun can function as an offensive hub, or as a complementary player. Having him signed long-term will make everything a bit easier for Houston to build the roster, because Sengun allows for them to go in so many different directions.

Projection: Five years, $224,895,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $269,874,000, no options

#17 Trey Murphy III – New Orleans Pelicans

Murphy is part of the future (and present!) in New Orleans. He’s a great fit on the wing in between Zion Williamson and Herb Jones, because his shooting. Murphy can also slide up to play as a small-ball four, or slide over to the two in bigger lineups. Injuries are a slight concern, but nothing to be overly concerned about with inking Murphy to a long-term deal.

Projection: Five years, $140 million, no options

#18 Tre Mann – Charlotte Hornets

After getting caught in the roster crunch in Oklahoma City, Mann played really well for Charlotte. He can play on- or off-ball, which is big for a backcourt mate with LaMelo Ball. The Hornets will probably wait on signing Mann to an extension, because they’d like to see everyone on the court together first.

Projection: No extension

#19 Kai Jones – LA Clippers

Jones caught on with the Clippers late in the season. He seems to have things sorted out in his personal life, after some off-court issues saw him get waived by the Hornets ahead of last season.

#20 Jalen Johnson – Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have been aggressive about signing their players to extensions over the years. Johnson should be no different. Despite suffering some injuries, Johnson blossomed in Year 3. Atlanta is facing some long-term salary crunch, but that should be relieved via trades this summer. That should free up flexibility to get Johnson signed to a long-term deal.

Projection: Five years, $125 million, no options

#21 Keon Johnson – Brooklyn Nets

Johnson was waived by the Phoenix Suns after being traded late last offseason. He played this past year on a two-way deal with the Nets.

#22 Isaiah Jackson – Indiana Pacers

Jackson has been in and out of the Pacers rotation as Myles Turner’s backup. With Jalen Smith a potential free agent, Indiana may want to get Jackson locked in long-term. He’s a terrific athlete, good rebounder and good shot blocker. Look for Aaron Nesmith’s team-friendly extension from last to be a guide here.

Projection: Four years, $45 million, no options

#23 Usman Garuba – Golden State Warriors

Garuba is coming off a season where he spent most of the year on a two-way with the Warriors before a late conversion. This came after being traded and ultimately waived while on his rookie scale deal. There are rumors he may head overseas next, but Garuba himself said no such decision has been made.

#24 Josh Christopher – Out of the NBA

Christopher spent part of last season on a two-way deal with the Utah Jazz. He’s finished the season in the G League.

#25 Quentin Grimes – Detroit Pistons

Grimes put together two really nice seasons to start his career. Year 3 was a kind of a mess. Grimes shooting fell off, and he was traded to the Pistons before being shut down with an injury. With Detroit’s roster in flux under Trajan Langdon, Grimes will probably play out the year before restricted free agency next summer.

Projection: No extension

#26 Bones Hyland – LA Clippers

After a promising rookie season, Hyland hasn’t found the same kind of traction the last two years. He’s been unable to crack the Clippers rotation, so he’s more of a trade candidate this summer than he is an extension candidate.

Projection: No extension

#27 Cam Thomas – Brooklyn

Thomas has become a terrific scorer, either off the bench or as a starter. A high-usage bench scorer is probably Thomas’ best role in the NBA, and one he can capably fill for more than a decade. But the Nets seem to have big plans for potential cap space in 2025. That doesn’t mean Thomas is leaving Brooklyn, but he won’t get extended.

Projection: No extension

#28 Jaden Springer – Boston Celtics

Springer hasn’t shown enough to get extended. He’s flashed at moments, but that’s all it’s been. Boston acquired him as a flyer to add some tradable salary and to see if he can pop in their schemes. No chance of an extension happening here.

Projection: No extension

#29 Day’Ron Sharpe – Brooklyn Nets

Sharpe is a terrific offensive rebounder. He’s also shown nice touch around the basket too. At worst, Sharpe is a solid backup center. But, like Cam Thomas, the Nets aren’t putting any extra salary on the books for 2025-26 unless they have to.

Projection: No extension

#30 Santi Aldama – Memphis Grizzlies

Aldama has become a good rotation big. He’s a good scorer, with nice touch on his jumper. He’s a better rebounder than he gets credit for, and he improved as a rim protector last season. The Grizzlies roster and cap sheet are pretty stuffed though. That will probably see them hold off on adding any more guaranteed long-term money for now.

Projection: No extension

Keith SmithJune 12, 2024

2024 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation

All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

ALL-STAR TIER

  1. LeBron James – Los Angeles Lakers, PF (PLAYER)
    Yes, he's going to be 40 years old. Yes, he's going to be in Year 22. Doesn't matter. LeBron James is still playing at an All-NBA level. He's getting the max. The only question? Will it be from the Lakers or someone else?
  2. Paul George – LA Clippers, SF (PLAYER)
    There was a point when it felt like George wouldn't even hit the market. He may still extend, as he can do so up through June 30. But it's now starting to look likely George may be the best player with a chance of actually changing teams.
  3. Tyrese Maxey – Philadelphia 76ers, PG (RFA)    
    Maxey is a free agent in name only. He's going to re-sign with Philadelphia on a five-year max deal worth either 25% and possibly up to 30% of the cap.
  4. Pascal Siakam – Indiana Pacers, PF (UFA)
    Siakam is a virtual lock to re-sign with the Pacers. The real concern is will it be a four- or five-year max? Four is a lot more palatable. Five could get a little rough by that final season. No matter, Siakam will stay in Indiana.
  5. DeMar DeRozan – Chicago Bulls, SF (UFA)
    It feels like DeRozan is more likely to extend or re-sign with the Bulls than he is to actually leave. However, if Chicago doesn't give him a good enough offer, DeRozan would be in demand around the league as a scoring wing option.
  6.  OG Anunoby – New York Knicks (PLAYER)
    The Knicks presumably traded a lot for Anunoby with an understanding that they'd re-sign him. He's not going to come cheap, however. Anunoby will be looking for something in the range of $35-$40 million. That's pricey, but worth it.
  7. James Harden – LA Clippers, PG (UFA)
    Harden is very likely to re-sign with the Clippers. The questions are for how many years and how much money? He's still an offensive force, even if he's slipping. That keeps him in All-Star consideration and near the top of this list.
  8. Immanuel Quickley – Toronto Raptors, PG (RFA) 
    If a cap space team wanted to offer Quickley a max contract, the Raptors might blink. Otherwise, Toronto will re-sign Quickley and install him as their point guard of the future. He was THE get in the OG Anunoby trade.

STARTER TIER

  1. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Denver Nuggets, SG (PLAYER)
    Caldwell-Pope will probably opt out, but he's likely not leaving Denver. Look for Caldwell-Pope and the Nuggets to sign a long-term deal that keeps him in Denver for at least a few more years.
  2. Miles Bridges – Charlotte Hornets, PF (UFA)
    What happens with Bridges will largely depend on how teams feel about his off-court issues. If they can get past that, Bridges is a talented combo forward. Someone is going to pay him, and probably very handsomely.
  3. Isaiah Hartenstein – New York Knicks, C (UFA)
    Hartenstein has only been even a semi-starter for one season. But he's shown that he can be a productive staring center. He defends, rebounds and he's a good passer. He's also a solid finisher with nice touch. A big payday is coming.
  4. Malik Monk – Sacramento Kings, SG (UFA)
    Monk is one of the best free agents who may actually change teams this summer. He's become a plug-and-play guy who can start or coming off the bench. He's going to get a big contract from someone this summer.
  5. Nicolas Claxton – Brooklyn Nets (UFA)
    Claxton is the best defender of the FA center group. He's an All-Defense level of rim protector, and he can hold his own on switches. If he was a bit more refined offensively, he'd top this list. As it is, Claxton is looking at a very large contract.
  6. D'Angelo Russell – Los Angeles Lakers, PG (PLAYER)
    Russell is in an interesting spot. He's not going to be a top target for any of the cap space teams, but some of them could turn to him. He can score and pass. Put the right defense around him, and he's a solid starting point guard.
  7. Kelly Oubre Jr. – Philadelphia 76ers, SF (UFA)
    It wasn't that Oubre had a bounce-back season for the Sixers, because he had been good for the Hornets, Warriors and Suns. But Oubre did prove he can contribute to a winning team in a big way. He won't be on a minimum again.
  8. Klay Thompson – Golden State Warriors, SF (UFA)
    Thompson has slipped. He can't defend the quicker guards anymore. He's more of a 3/4 now than he is a guard. But Thompson still put up 18 PPG on 39% shooting from deep. That has value. But does it still have value to the Warriors?
  9. Tobias Harris – Philadelphia 76ers, PF (UFA)
    Harris isn't a max or near-max guy, as he was on his previous contract. But he's also not a minimum player, as many have suggested. Someone will get a scoring forward on a fair contract this summer. It just won't be the Sixers.
  10. Tyus Jones – Washington Wizards, PG (UFA)
    Jones first year as a starter went pretty well. He put up career-highs nearly across the board. Jones is a low-end starter and a high-end backup. He'll have plenty of offers, should he choose to leave a starting job in Washington.
  11. Jonas Valaciunas – New Orleans Pelicans, C (UFA)
    Valanciunas is still hanging in there as a productive starter. However, Valanciunas is best as part of a platoon now. He can't hold down the role for more than half of a game. But he's still a good fit for anyone who needs a starting five.
  12. Patrick Williams – Chicago Bulls, PF (RFA)
    Williams is still an enigma. He's efficient. He rebounds. He's an above-average defender. But he's been hurt in two of four seasons. His role has never scaled beyond fourth or fifth option. Will someone take a chance that there's more?
  13. Bruce Brown – Toronto Raptors, SG (TEAM)
    It sounds like Toronto will pick up Brown's option. After that, the Raptors are expected to explore trades for the versatile guard/wing.
  14. Buddy Heild – Philadelphia 76ers, SG (UFA)
    Hield dipped a bit with the Sixers, compared to his play with the Pacers, especially in the playoffs. But he's still one of the best shooters on the market this summer. He's almost 32, so deals might be a bit shorter in length.
  15. Gary Trent Jr. – Toronto Raptors, SG (UFA)
    Trent is one of the best 3&D options who might change teams this summer. He's also only 25 years old, so there's plenty left in his legs. With Toronto resetting, someone should get a nice player in Trent this offseason.
  16. Nicolas Batum – Philadelphia 76ers, PF (UFA)
    Batum has settled into a rolid role as a stretch four to end his career. He's been right around a 40% three-point shooter in each year since he left Charlotte. He can still defend too. But…how much longer does he want to play?
  17. Gary Harris – Orlando Magic, SG (UFA)
    Harris has been a solid 3&D guard for the Magic for a few years now. He's a tier lower than the players above him on this list. And Harris is now 30 years old. But for a chunk of the MLE, he'll be a nice pickup for someone.
  18. Caleb Martin – Miami Heat, SF (PLAYER)
    Martin dipped a bit last season from the previous two seasons but he's still a solid two-way wing. That's something teams pay for. Look for Miami to do what they can to keep him, because replacing him will be a challenge otherwise.
  19. Russell Westbrook – LA Clippers, PG (PLAYER)
    We're closing in on the end for Westbrook, but we aren't there yet. He's best as a backup, but could still be a starter somewhere. He'll probably return to the Clippers, but he might try to find a bigger role elsewhere.
  20. Markelle Fultz – Orlando Magic, PG (UFA)
    Fultz dealt with injuries again. He's abandoned any pretense of a three-point shot. But he does a nice job in the midrange game, and he's a solid defender. He'd be a low-end starter, but a pretty good backup, just not in Orlando.
  21. Isaac Okoro – Cleveland Cavaliers, SF (RFA)
    Okoro is only 23 years old and he's gotten better each season, despite an everchanging role. His ability to defend plus hitting open shots, should have a smart team pushing the Cavs with an offer sheet they might not match.
  22. Malik Beasley – Milwaukee Bucks, SG (UFA)
    Beasley is a starter level guy, and he shouldn't have to play on a minimum deal this season. As a reliable shooter, who stays healthy, Beasley is worth part of the MLE from a playoff team.
  23. Kyle Lowry – Philadelphia 76ers, PG (UFA)
    Lowry is squeezing all he can out of his career at this point. He seemed rejuvenated by landing at home in Philadelphia. Look for Lowry to return to the Sixers, likely on a minimum deal as a low-minutes starter or as Maxey's backup.
  24. Saddiq Bey – Atlanta Hawks, SF (RFA)
    Bey wasn't as efficient as his first half-season with the Hawks, but he was on his way to a nice payday. Now, a torn ACL will cost him a lot of next season. He might just sign the qualifying offer and rehab most of the year in Atlanta.

ROTATION TIER

  1. Simone Fontecchio – Detroit Pistons, SF (UFA)
    Fontecchio put together a really solid second season in the NBA. So much so that Detroit is going to do what they can to keep him around. Look for an MLE-ish type of deal and that'll be good for the Pistons to keep the wing shooter.
  2. Luke Kennard – Memphis Grizzlies, SG (TEAM)
    Kennard may be the best shooter in the NBA. The challenge is that he can't stay healthy. The Grizzlies may decline their team option for Kennard, because of tax concerns. If so, someone will snag a shooter on the cheap.
  3. Andre Drummond – Chicago Bulls, C (UFA)
    Drummond is the best backup center available this offseason, mostly because he's overqualified for that role. He'd make sense on just about any team, especially those looking for a high-minute backup that can start when necessary.
  4. Monte Morris – Minnesota Timberwolves, PG (UFA)
    This was a lost season for Morris. He wasn't healthy with Detroit and didn't carve out a real role with Minnesota. Still, he's one of the best backup point guards in the NBA. He'll have no problem finding a contract to fill that role.
  5. Kyle Anderson – Minnesota Timberwolves, PF (UFA)
    A year after hitting a career-best 41% from behind the arc, Anderson cratered to 23%. He's also heading into his age-31 season. But he defends, can handle the ball and pass. And he's solid inside the arc. Good backup for the MLE.
  6. Derrick Jones Jr. – Dallas Mavericks, SF (UFA)
    Jones got back to being the guy he looked like in Miami with Dallas. He defended well and made just enough shots to keep team's honest. And he's got good chemistry with Luka Doncic. Look for the Mavs to try to keep him around.
  7. Sam Hauser – Boston Celtics, SF (TEAM)
    It's unlikely Boston will decline Hauser's minimum team option. The Celtics already have enough tax issues as it is. But if they do decline the deal, it's likely because they have a long-term agreement in place to keep Hauser in Boston.
  8. Eric Gordon – Phoenix Suns, SG (PLAYER)
    Despite the fact that he turns 36 years old next season, Gordon remains one of the more reliable bench scoring/shooting options in the NBA. He may choose to stay with the Suns, out of wanting to run it back.
  9. Jose Alvarado – New Orleans Pelicans, PG (TEAM)
    Alvarado probably won't even hit free agency. The Pelicans are close enough to the tax line that picking up his option and dealing with free agency next summer is the way. He's a key backup for New Orleans, so he'll stick around.
  10. Moritz Wagner – Orlando Magic, C (TEAM)
    Wagner has graduated from being a top-tier irritant. He's still that, but Wagner is now much more. He hasn’t fully scrapped the jumper, but Wagner has improved as a finisher around the rim. And he's a good defender and rebounder too.
  11. Drew Eubanks – Phoenix Suns, C (PLAYER)
    Eubanks had a kind of disappointing season for the Suns. He wasn't as good as he was in his last year in Portland. That could have him on the move. Eubanks is a good backup, because he can defend the rim and finish. That's solid.
  12. Gordon Hayward – Oklahoma City Thunder, SF (UFA)
    It all went wrong for Hayward in OKC. He didn't play much, never got comfortable and didn't carve a role. But Hayward showed with Charlotte that he can still do a little bit of everything…when healthy. Who pays what for that? Who knows?
  13. Taurean Prince – Los Angeles Lakers, PF (UFA)
    Prince has become a really solid shooter. That has value as a combo forward. He's probably more of a backup or spot starter than regular starter, but Prince should get a raise off the Bi-Annual amount he played for last season.
  14. Obi Toppin – Indiana Pacers, PF (RFA)
    Toppin had a really nice season for the Pacers. He's better than most backup fours, and Siakam is going to re-sign. Maybe a team can put together an offer sheet to make the Pacers blink? If you believe in the shooting, it's worth it.
  15. Precious Achiuwa – New York Knicks, PF (RFA)
    Achiuwa got back to being an energy/hustle guy who rebounded, played defense and ran the floor for the Knicks. That's his best role. Embracing that should see him get a nice deal as a backup four and small-ball backup five.
  16. Royce O’Neal – Phoenix Suns, SF (UFA)
    The Suns are likely to do what it takes to keep O'Neale around. He played a key role after coming over from Brooklyn and he's the closest thing to a 3&D weapon that Phoenix has. Look for him to get a decent, short-term deal in July.
  17. De’Anthony Melton – Philadelphia 76ers, SG (UFA)
    After putting together a strong season two years ago, Melton missed most of last season with back issues. If healthy, Melton could be a nice combo guard as a starter or off the bench.
  18. Isaiah Joe – Oklahoma City Thunder (TEAM)
    The Thunder are likely to pick up their team option for Joe. He's been really good as their primary shooter off the bench for a couple of seasons now. Next year will be Joe's year to cash in through free agency.

2024 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Keith SmithJune 12, 2024

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2024 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

STARTER TIER

  1. Isaiah Hartenstein – New York Knicks (UFA)
    Hartenstein has only been even a semi-starter for one season. But he's shown that he can be a productive staring center. He defends, rebounds and he's a good passer. He's also a solid finisher with nice touch. A big payday is coming.

  2. Nicolas Claxton – Brooklyn Nets (UFA)
    Claxton is the best defender of the FA center group. He's an All-Defense level of rim protector, and he can hold his own on switches. If he was a bit more refined offensively, he'd top this list. As it is, Claxton is looking at a very large contract.

  3. Jonas Valaciunas – New Orleans Pelicans (UFA)
    Valanciunas is still hanging in there as a productive starter. However, Valanciunas is best as part of a platoon now. He can't hold down the role for more than half of a game. But he's still a good fit for anyone who needs a starting five.

ROTATION TIER

  1. Andre Drummond – Chicago Bulls (UFA)
    Drummond is the best backup center available this offseason, mostly because he's overqualified for that role. He'd make sense on just about any team, especially those looking for a high-minute backup that can start when necessary.

  2. Moritz Wagner – Orlando Magic (TEAM)
    Wagner has graduated from being a top-tier irritant. He's still that, but Wagner is now much more. He hasn’t fully scrapped the jumper, but Wagner has improved as a finisher around the rim. And he's a good defender and rebounder too.

  3. Drew Eubanks – Phoenix Suns (PLAYER)
    Eubanks had a kind of disappointing season for the Suns. He wasn't as good as he was in his last year in Portland. That could have him on the move. Eubanks is a good backup, because he can defend the rim and finish. That's solid.

  4. Xavier Tillman Sr. – Boston Celtics (UFA)
    Tillman hasn't had a big impact in Boston, but he shouldn't go overlooked as a backup big option. Tillman is both a strong defender and quick enough to hold up in switches. If his jumper ever develops, he'll be even more highly rated.

  5. Mason Plumlee – LA Clippers (UFA)
    There isn't much upside with Plumlee, but he's a good backup. You're going to get competitive defense, good passing and finishing. Nothing will excite you, but you know you have your backup center spot filled with Plumlee.

  6. Goga Bitadze – Orlando Magic (UFA)
    Bitadze seems to be flying under the radar a bit. He either started for Orlando or didn't play much. As a starter, Bitadze showed terrific rebounding, improved finishing and improving defense. He's going to be a steal for a smart team.

  7. Jalen Smith – Indiana Pacers (PLAYER)
    Smith's role fluctuated a lot. He may not be in Indiana's long-term plans, so he may opt out. If so, Smith could be a nice get as a backup big. Something really enticing: Smith shot 42% on 144 three-point attempts. That's great, if it's real.

  8. Kevin Love – Miami Heat (PLAYER)
    Love is nearing the end of his career, but he's still a productive regular season backup five. He can still rebound and pass. The shot is a little shaky, and the defense makes him unplayable in the playoffs. But he can eat some regualr season innings.

  9. Jaxson Hayes – PLAYER (RFA)
    Sometimes bigs take a while to develop, but we're hitting "now or never" time with Hayes. He'll have highlight dunks and he can rebound some. But he's lost defensively. And those glimpses of an outside shot are mere memories now.

  10. Richaun Holmes – Washington Wizards (PLAYER)
    Holmes is very likely to opt in with the Wizards. He won't see more than minimum offers at this point in his career. If he can get some minutes in Washington, he could play well enough to be a trade target by the deadline.

  11. Luke Kornet – Boston Celtics (UFA)
    Kornet has put up two good years in a row as Boston's third center. He's no longer the "Unikornet" outside shooter, but he is a good finisher. And he's a good rim protector. As a third big, teams can do a whole lot worse than Kornet.

  12. Alex Len – Sacramento Kings (UFA)
    Each year, the Kings try to upgrade at backup center. Each year, they turn back to Len. He's a rugged defender and rebounder. That one year as a jump-shooter will always be a "What if…?", but Len is a decent backup five as it is.

  13. James Wiseman – Detroit Pistons (RFA)
    Wiseman remains a lottery ticket. He's only 23 and the talent is there. Can someone pull it out of him on a nightly basis? If so, Wiseman would be a steal. The size, skill and youthful potential will get Wiseman another chance to figure it out.

  14. Chimezie Metu – Detroit Pistons (TEAM)
    Metu has turned himself in a rotation-level center. He's dropped the idea of being a stretch option, and that's helped him a lot. Decent finishing and a willingness to attack the glass on both ends will get Metu a minimum deal somewhere.

  15. Dario Saric – Golden State Warriors (UFA)
    It never quite went how it was supposed to for Saric. Weird roles and injuries kept him from becoming what we all hoped. But he's done a nice job as a small-ball backup five. He can stretch the floor and provide some playmaking for the minimum.

  16. Daniel Theis – LA Clippers (UFA)
    Theis is an ideal third center for a good team. He stays ready, despite not having a consistent role. He can shoot, he's solid in pick-and-roll and he does fine defensively. He'll get another deal, because Theis knows his role and plays it well.

  17. Neemias Queta – Boston Celtics (TEAM)
    Queta has loads of potential. He's an outstanding rebounder. He has good physical tools defensively, but needs reps to figure it out. He's also got to refine his touch a big. He'll probably be back in Boston for another year of development.

  18. Mohamed Bamba – Philadelphia 76ers (UFA)
    Bamba has the size and skill to be a stretch five. He's just never put it together for anything more than brief periods. He's also 26 years old now, so the prospect shine is gone. But for the minimum, he can be a decent backup five.

  19. Sandro Mamukelashvili – San Antonio Spurs (RFA)
    Sleeper alert! Mamukelashvili is consistent minutes as a backup away from breaking out. He can really rebound and pass for a center. The jumper is a work in progress, but he's got a funky set of moves around the rim. Keep an eye on him.

  20. Mike Muscala – Oklahoma City Thunder (UFA)
    Muscala is what he is: He's a stretch five who can give you good minutes in a pinch. Because he knows his role, he's an ideal third center. A contender will have Muscala on their bench for depth purposes next season.

FRINGE TIER (UNRANKED AND PRESENTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

  1. Udoka Azubuike – Phoenix Suns (UFA / TWO-WAY)
    Azubuike could be a good backup center. He's never fully had the chance due to role and injuries. But he's shown some rebounding ability and some defensive tools too. He's a foul machine, but someone might give him a backup deal.

  2. Ibou Badji – Portland Trail Blazers (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Badji is very raw, but he's huge. He's probaby going to have to do another two-way deal, but he's worth continuing to work with in the G League. The size and athleticism make Badji worth trying to develop.

  3. Bismack Biyombo – Oklahoma City Thunder (UFA)
    Biyombo might have another year or two left at the end of the bench for a contender. He's well-liked and he can give a team a few minutes here and there as a rebounder and defender. It all comes down to if he wants to keep playing or not.

  4. Moses Brown – Portland Trail Blazer (UFA)
    As a second-year guy, it looked like Brown was heading towards being a good backup or low-end starter. But he never built on that season. Now, he might be best off heading overseas for a year or two. The skill is there, but the shine is off him as a prospect.

  5. Thomas Bryant – Miami Heat (PLAYER)
    Injuries wrecked things for Bryant, just as he was looking like a solid starting center. Bryant has never developed enough as a defender to offset any fall-off offensively. That's put him in a spot where he's chasing backup roles.

  6. Colin Castleton – Philadelphia 76ers (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Castleton has nice touch in the paint. He's also a very good rebounder and decent shot-blocker too. If he had more range, Castleton would be a nice backup five. Another year of a development on a two-way will do him good.

  7. Luka Garza – Minnesota Timberwolves (RFA)
    Garza has flashed as a potential backup five in the NBA, but he's not quite there. He's like a 4A guy in baseball: Too good for the minors, but not quite good enough for the majors. He may return to Minnesota as deep center depth.

  8. Taj Gibson – Detroit Pistons (UFA)
    Gibson is so well thought of, that he keeps getting deals. He helps young bigs improve by making them work in practice. If Gibson is open to that, he might get another deal. But his on-court, in-game impact will be minimal if at all.

  9. Harry Giles III – Los Angeles Lakers (UFA / TWO-WAY)
    It's been great to see Giles battle his way back to the NBA. But the years injuries have taken their toll. He just doesn't seem to have it in him to hold up to what the NBA needs for even a backup role.

  10. Jay Huff – Denver Nuggets (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Huff does a great job in the G League. He blocks shot, rebounds and scores efficiently, including a nice three-point shot. That has translated to the NBA yet. He's got one more year of two-way eligibility before probably heading overseas.

  11. Damian Jones – Cleveland Cavaliers (UFA)
    Jones has never done more than flash on occasion in the NBA. Someone might bring him in as a deep frontcourt option, but that's about it. There's no real upside left here.

  12. DeAndre Jordan – Denver Nuggets (UFA)
    If Jordan wants to continue to be the sage veteran presence for a contender, he can be that again next season. And he'll even throw in a handful of produtive games here and there as a backup. But Jordan is in that wise-vet stage of his career now.

  13. Boban Marjanovic – Houston Rockets (UFA)
    There might not be a more popular teammate in the league than Marjanovic. He also practices hard and stays ready when his number is sporadically called. Someone will have him on their bench, if Marjanovic wants to keep going.

  14. JaVale McGee – Sacramento Kings (UFA)
    McGee is in the same spot as so many others on this list. He's a great locker room guy and a beloved teammate. His on-court impact is fairly minimal, but someone will sign him just because he's a terrific veteran presence to have around.

  15. Olivier Sarr – Oklahoma City Thunder (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Sarr had put together a nice season in the G League, but unfortunately suffered a torn Achilles in the G League Finals. He's likely to miss the entirety of next season, as he rehabs from the injury.

  16. Jericho Sims – New York Knicks (TEAM)
    The Knicks will likely pick up Sims option, because he's a cost-effective third center to have around. There's not much upside here, but Sims is solid enough that New York should keep him.

  17. Tristan Thompson – Cleveland Cavaliers (UFA)
    Thompson can still bang and defend a bit on the interior. But there's not much else here. He could find another team to bring him to play an enforcer type of role in limited minutes.

  18. Oscar Tshiebwe – Indiana Pacers (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Tshiebwe could lead the NBA in rebounding some day. He's that good at attacking the glass. The issue is that there isn't a whole lot else where. He was an inconsistent finisher and defender. He'll get another two-way to keep developing.

  19. Malik Williams– Toronto Raptors (RFA)
    Williams showed a knack for blocking shots and rebounding the G League. He's not a strong finisher around the rim however, and his jumper needs work. But there's potential there for a two-way contract next season.

  20. Cody Zeller – New Orleans Pelicans (UFA)
    Zeller didn't play much and didn't show much when he did play. He might get another deal as a deeper center option for a good team. Maybe some consistency would come back with regular minutes. But we're closing in on the end for Zeller.

2024 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Keith SmithJune 09, 2024

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2024 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

ALL-STAR TIER

  1. LeBron James – Los Angeles Lakers (PLAYER)
    Yes, he's going to be 40 years old. Yes, he's going to be in Year 22. Doesn't matter. LeBron James is still playing at an All-NBA level. He's getting the max. The only question? Will it be from the Lakers or someone else?

  2. Pascal Siakam – Indiana Pacers (UFA)
    Siakam is a virtual lock to re-sign with the Pacers. The real concern is will it be a four- or five-year max? Four is a lot more palatable. Five could get a little rough by that final season. No matter, Siakam will stay in Indiana.

STARTER TIER

  1. Miles Bridges – Charlotte Hornets (UFA)
    What happens with Bridges will largely depend on how teams feel about his off-court issues. If they can get past that, Bridges is a talented combo forward. Someone is going to pay him, and probably very handsomely.

  2. Tobias Harris – Philadelphia 76ers (UFA)
    Harris isn't a max or near-max guy, as he was on his previous contract. But he's also not a minimum player, as many have suggested. Someone will get a scoring forward on a fair contract this summer. It just won't be the Sixers.

  3. Patrick Williams – Chicago Bulls (RFA)
    Williams is still an enigma. He's efficient. He rebounds. He's an above-average defender. But he's been hurt in two of four seasons. His role has never scaled beyond fourth or fifth option. Will someone take a chance that there's more?

  4. Nicolas Batum – Philadelphia 76ers (UFA)
    Batum has settled into a rolid role as a stretch four to end his career. He's been right around a 40% three-point shooter in each year since he left Charlotte. He can still defend too. But…how much longer does he want to play?

ROTATION TIER

  1. Kyle Anderson – Minnesota Timberwolves (UFA)
    A year after hitting a career-best 41% from behind the arc, Anderson cratered to 23%. He's also heading into his age-31 season. But he defends, can handle the ball and pass. And he's solid inside the arc. Good backup for the MLE.

  2. Taurean Prince – Los Angeles Lakers (UFA)
    Prince has become a really solid shooter. That has value as a combo forward. He's probably more of a backup or spot starter than regular starter, but Prince should get a raise off the Bi-Annual amount he played for last season.

  3. Obi Toppin – Indiana Pacers (RFA)
    Toppin had a really nice season for the Pacers. He's better than most backup fours, and Siakam is going to re-sign. Maybe a team can put together an offer sheet to make the Pacers blink? If you believe in the shooting, it's worth it.

  4. Precious Achiuwa – New York Knicks (RFA)
    Achiuwa got back to being an energy/hustle guy who rebounded, played defense and ran the floor for the Knicks. That's his best role. Embracing that should see him get a nice deal as a backup four and small-ball backup five.

  5. Jae Crowder – Milwaukee Bucks (UFA)
    Crowder can't really defend wings anymore. He's lost too much footspeed. He's a touch small to defend most fours. That leaves him in a weird combo forward spot coming off the bench. He'll get another job for the minimum somewhere.

  6. Bol Bol – Phoenix Suns (UFA)
    A look at the numbers would make you wonder why Bol doesn't have an established role. But if you watch him play, you can see how up and down the Bol experience is. He's just never put it together. Talent gets him another deal.

  7. Jeff Green – Houston Rockets (TEAM)
    Heading into his age-38 season, Green is still plugging along. The Rockets don't really need him, but they love having him around their young core. That will probably see Green's option picked up for another year off the bench.

  8. Haywood Highsmith – Miami Heat (UFA)
    If you believe in Highsmith's three-point shooting, he should be an MLE candidate. If you're a little shaky, he should get a chunk of the MLE. Can Miami match that, given tax/apron concerns? Highsmith could be the next to leave Miami.

  9. Trendon Watford – Brooklyn Nets (RFA)
    Watford can play. He's a good finisher, a good passer and fairly solid defensive. The shooting volume is low, but the jumper looks like he should take more. Restricted free agency will hurt him, but Watford should get a nice deal.

  10. Tristan Vukcevic – Washington Wizards (TEAM)
    Vukcevic got a late-season taste of the NBA. We don't know enough, but there's potential there. The Wizards may decline this option and sign Vukcevic to a long-term deal. They didn't bring him over to see him bounce after 10 games.

  11. Davis Bertans – Charlotte Hornets (PLAYER)
    Bertans can still shoot. But he's no longer the high-volume sniper that he was early in his career. The Hornets will probably clear this deal off their books, but someone else will give Bertans a deal to be a stretch four off their bench.

  12. Keita Bates-Diop – Brooklyn Nets (PLAYER)
    Bates-Diop's season was a disappointment. He never replicated what he showed with the Spurs. He may just pick up his option to guarantee some money. If not, a team could still get a nice player for a minimum deal.

  13. J.T. Thor – Charlotte Hornets (TEAM)
    It's been baby steps for Thor. He's shown some promise, but the development has been a little slow. The Hornets might give him one more year to see if all comes together. Otherwise, he'll battle for a backup forward spot elsewhere.

  14. Marcus Morris Sr. – Cleveland Cavaliers (UFA)
    At various points last season, it looked like Morris was done as a productive player. At other points, including in the playoffs, Morris showed he has something left. Someone will give him a minimum deal for some forward depth.

  15. P.J. Tucker – LA Clippers (PLAYER)
    Tucker is going to pick up his option. If he opts out, he's unlikely to see $11 million total the rest of his career. We're really close to the end of the line, and Tucker is more of tradable salary than a real rotation guy at this point.

FRINGE TIER (UNRANKED AND PRESENTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

  1. Thanasis Antetokounmpo – Milwaukee Bucks (UFA)
    Antetokounmpo tore his Achilles in a workout shortly after the season. He's unlikely to get signed, as he'll be rehabbing all season long.

  2. Dominick Barlow – San Antonio Spurs (RFA)
    Barlow has been dominant on the G League level, and has flashed in the NBA. Restricted free agency will allow the Spurs to control the process. Look for him to be back in San Antonio for at least one more season.

  3. Greg Brown III – Dallas Mavericks (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Brown is a good shot blocker and pretty good rebounder. He's also a solid finisher around the rim. The issue is Brown is a bit undersized and his jumper hasn't come around yet. He'll probably do another year on a two-way deal.

  4. Jamal Cain – Miami Heat (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    For a little bit, it looked like Cain was the Heat's next G League development success story. He's not quite there yet though. Look for him to do one more year on a two-way with Miami before moving to the NBA permanently.

  5. Vlatko Cancar – Denver Nuggets (TEAM)
    Cancar missed all of last season after a torn ACL last summer. The Nuggets will pick up this option and Cancar may be part of the rotation as a backup forward next season. That's how things were trending before his injury.

  6. Robert Covington – Philadelphia 76ers (UFA)
    Between injuries and age, we may be closing in on the end of the line for Covington. He can't get after defensively on the perimeter anymore. That limits his value, as he's not the volume shooting weapon he once was either.

  7. Moussa Diabate – LA Clippers (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Diabate remains and interesting prospect. He can really, really rebound. He's also a decent shot blocker. Diabate is also a solid finisher. Another year of seasoning on a two-way contract is probably in order for the big man.

  8. Danilo Gallinari – Milwaukee Bucks (UFA)
    We're just about at the end for Gallinari. He simply can't move enough to defend very well. Maybe a team gives him a deal in hopes he can provide some floor spacing, but Gallo may be finishing up his career playing overseas.

  9. Usman Garuba – Golden State Warriors (UFA)
    Garuba denied that he's continuing his career by signing in Spain. That will leave the door open for another NBA deal, but it'll be a minimum deal and a battle for a roster spot. Gabuba may yet end up in Spain when all is said and done.

  10. Anthony Gill – Washington Wizards (UFA)
    After several years of solid play in Europe, Gill had a nice run in the NBA. If he shot it better, Gill might even have a shot at a bigger NBA role. As it stands, he's a vet minimum guy, or he could head back overseas for a bigger deal.

  11. James Johnson – Indiana Pacers (UFA)
    Johnson is a locker-room presence at this point. The Pacers have enjoyed having him around, and the toughness he adds. If they have an open roster spot, Johnson might be back. Otherwise, it's been a really nice career.

  12. Kai Jones – LA Clippers (TEAM)
    The Clippers are going to pick up their option on Jones. They'll want to see if they can finally tap all that untapped potential. Jones seems to be committed to making the most of his second chance, which is great to see.

  13. Isaiah Mobley – Cleveland Cavaliers (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Mobley has done a nice job in two G League seasons. He even showed some signs of developing into a stretch big. That development will probably continue for at least one more year on a two-way deal.

  14. Markieff Morris – Dallas Mavericks (UFA)
    Unlike his brother Marcus, Markieff Morris hasn't flashed much. He's a respected veteran voice though, and Morris adds toughness. That could keep him on a roster again next season for the veteran minimum.

  15. Pete Nance – Cleveland Cavaliers (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Nance had a nice G League season. He's developing into a jack-of-all-trades forward. The Cavs would probably like another year to keep working with Nance on a two-way contract.

  16. Drew Peterson – Boston Celtics (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Peterson has potential a stretch four. He can also really, really pass the ball. That opens things up beyond just being a spot-up shooter. Another year honing his skills in the G League will be good for Peterson.

  17. Micah Potter – Utah Jazz (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Potter has done well in the G League. He's a pretty solid scorer around the basket, and he can really step out and shoot it. If he held up better defensively, he'd be in the NBA. As it stands, another two-way is in Potter's future.

  18. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl – New Orleans Pelicans (TEAM)
    Unless the Pelicans really need to cut salary for tax purposes, or they really need a roster spot, Robinson-Earl will be back. He's shown signs of being a solid backup big in the NBA. New Orleans can use the frontcourt depth.

  19. Luka Samanic – Utah Jazz (UFA)
    Samanic saw his most extensive NBA minutes last season and he didn't do much with them. He's not a shooter and he didn't finish well either. Samanic may be headed back to Europe for more money and a bigger role.

  20. Adama Sanogo – Chicago Bulls (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Sanogo is a terrific rebounder and really solid around the rim. If he was a better rim protector, he'd probably get an NBA deal. But it'd be smart for a team to give Sanogo another two-way deal to develop in the G League.

  21. Thaddeus Young – Phoenix Suns (UFA)
    We might at at the end of the line for Young. He does space the floor anymore, and his quickness is just about gone. Teams love his approach and leadership, so maybe he finds another deal. But we're closing in on retirement time.

2024 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Keith SmithJune 04, 2024

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2024 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

ALL-STAR TIER

  1. Paul George – LA Clippers (PLAYER)
    There was a point when it felt like George wouldn't even hit the market. He may still extend, as he can do so up through June 30. But it's now starting to look likely George may be the best player with a chance of actually changing teams.

  2. DeMar DeRozan – Chicago Bulls (UFA)
    It feels like DeRozan is more likely to extend or re-sign with the Bulls than he is to actually leave. However, if Chicago doesn't give him a good enough offer, DeRozan would be in demand around the league as a scoring wing option.

  3. OG Anunoby – New York Knicks (PLAYER)
    The Knicks presumably traded a lot for Anunoby with an understanding that they'd re-sign him. He's not going to come cheap, however. Anunoby will be looking for something in the range of $35-$40 million. That's pricey, but worth it.

STARTER TIER

  1. Kelly Oubre Jr. – Philadelphia 76ers (UFA)
    It wasn't that Oubre had a bounce-back season for the Sixers, because he had been good for the Hornets, Warriors and Suns. But Oubre did prove he can contribute to a winning team in a big way. He won't be on a minimum again.

  2. Klay Thompson – Golden State Warriors (UFA)
    Thompson has slipped. He can't defend the quicker guards anymore. He's more of a 3/4 now than he is a guard. But Thompson still put up 18 PPG on 39% shooting from deep. That has value. But does it still have value to the Warriors?

  3. Caleb Martin – Miami Heat (PLAYER)
    Martin dipped a bit last season from the previous two seasons but he's still a solid two-way wing. That's something teams pay for. Look for Miami to do what they can to keep him, because replacing him will be a challenge otherwise.

  4. Isaac Okoro – Cleveland Cavaliers (RFA)
    Okoro is only 23 years old and he's gotten better each season, despite an everchanging role. His ability to defend plus hitting open shots, should have a smart team pushing the Cavs with an offer sheet they might not match.

  5. Saddiq Bey – Atlanta Hawks (RFA)
    Bey wasn't as efficient as his first half-season with the Hawks, but he was on his way to a nice payday. Now, a torn ACL will cost him a lot of next season. He might just sign the qualifying offer and rehab most of the year in Atlanta.

ROTATION TIER

  1. Simone Fontecchio – Detroit Pistons (UFA)
    Fontecchio put together a really solid second season in the NBA. So much so that Detroit is going to do what they can to keep him around. Look for an MLE-ish type of deal and that'll be good for the Pistons to keep the wing shooter.

  2. Derrick Jones Jr. – Dallas Mavericks (UFA)
    Jones got back to being the guy he looked like in Miami with Dallas. He defended well and made just enough shots to keep team's honest. And he's got good chemistry with Luka Doncic. Look for the Mavs to try to keep him around.

  3. Sam Hauser – Boston Celtics (TEAM)
    It's unlikely Boston will decline Hauser's minimum team option. The Celtics already have enough tax issues as it is. But if they do decline the deal, it's likely because they have a long-term agreement in place to keep Hauser in Boston.

  4. Gordon Hayward – Oklahoma City Thunder (UFA)
    It all went wrong for Hayward in OKC. He didn't play much, never got comfortable and didn't carve a role. But Hayward showed with Charlotte that he can still do a little bit of everything…when healthy. Who pays what for that? Who knows?

  5. Royce O’Neal – Phoenix Suns (UFA)
    The Suns are likely to do what it takes to keep O'Neale around. He played a key role after coming over from Brooklyn and he's the closest thing to a 3&D weapon that Phoenix has. Look for him to get a decent, short-term deal in July.

  6. Naji Marshall – New Orleans Pelicans (UFA)
    If Marshall's 39% shooting from behind the arc is real, then he should get the MLE from someone. If teams aren't sold, then he's probably getting half that or less. At the very least, he's proven he can be a solid wing/combo forward.

  1. Joe Ingles – Orlando Magic (TEAM)
    Ingles was everything Orlando wanted. He gave them veteran leadership, was a terrific ball-mover and a lights-out shooter. The Magic would love to have him back, but not for what he makes on his option. It's a decline-and-re-sign situation.

  2. Torrey Craig – Chicago Bulls (PLAYER)
    Craig has put together back-to-back seasons where he's hit better than 39% from deep. He's finally become the 3&D player everyone wanted. That should get him a non-minimum deal this summer, if teams can get past their priors.

  3. Doug McDermott – Indiana Pacers (UFA)
    It was a weird year for McDermott. He was still efficient, despite a lesser role in San Antonio. Then he got back to Indiana and couldn't make a shot. Given his age and one-skill game, we're probably in the minimum phase of his career.

  4. Cedi Osman – San Antonio Spurs (UFA)
    Osman quietly had a nice season for the Spurs. He shot it pretty well, and he tried on defense. Someone could get a regular season rotation wing on the cheap with Osman this summer.

  5. Jae’Sean Tate – Houston Rockets (TEAM)
    Tate's shot has never developed enough for him to become the 3&D wing we all hoped for. He can still play, but he's a defense, hustle, run the floor guy. Watch his option, as Houston has a very crowded forward rotation.

  6. Yuta Watanabe – Memphis Grizzlies (PLAYER)
    There were reports after the season that Watanabe plans to opt out and to return home to play in Japan. If so, the NBA loses a forward who can play. But after six NBA seasons, Watanabe may just want to finish his career at home.

  7. Oshae Brissett – Boston Celtics (PLAYER)
    Brissett may not find a better role than the one he has in Boston, even if he finds a bigger role. He plays with tremendous energy, so that helps on a night when a contender is flat. In a bigger role, Brissett's flaws become magnified a bit.

  8. Kenyon Martin Jr. – Philadelphia 76ers (UFA)
    After a few interesting years with the Rockets, Martin never found a place with the Clippers or the Sixers. He simply doesn't shoot it well enough to play regular rotation minutes. Until the shot improves, he's a minimum guy.

  9. Reggie Bullock – Houston Rockets (UFA)
    We're nearing the end for Bullock. He can still shoot, but he doesn't do a lot else. And the shot isn't quite deadly enough to be an every-game designated shooter. It's minimums from here on out for the veteran wing.

  10. Lamar Stevens – Memphis Grizzlies (UFA)
    Stevens showed promise with the Cavs, flashed a bit with the Celtics, but didn't play much. A late-season run with the Grizzlies was good to see, but not enough to get Stevens more than a minimum deal next season.

  11. Kessler Edwards – Sacramento Kings (RFA)
    We've hit the "Maybe he'll figure it out" portion of the list. Edwards can shoot it a little bit. He's got decent size for a wing. But we're running out of time for him to figure it out in the NBA. He'll get one more shot, but that's probably it.

  12. Cameron Reddish – Los Angeles Lakers (PLAYER)
    We’re five years into unrealized potential with Reddish. He looked good at moments for the Lakers, but he just can't shoot. Reddish doesn't do anything else at quite high enough of a level to offset that. But he's still youngish, so...maybe?

  13. Jordan Nwora – Toronto Raptors (UFA)
    When he's had chances to play, on bad teams or due to injury, Nwora has flashed some scoring skills. That'll keep him around at the end of someone's bench, but this time it will be for the veteran minimum.

  14. Emoni Bates – Cleveland Cavaliers (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    This is a belief in Bates' former top prospect status. He played limited NBA minutes, and was up-and-down in the G League. But he's got great size and he's very skilled. One more year on a two-way and he might put it all together.

FRINGE TIER (UNRANKED AND PRESENTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

  1. Brandon Boston Jr. – LA Clippers (RFA)
    Boston hasn't quite figured it out yet. He's still somewhat young, which the Clippers are in short supply of. So, he'll probably be back, but don't expect much. There's too many other wings ahead of him in the pecking order.

  2. Henri Drell – Chicago Bulls (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Drell was ok in the G League, but didn't really standout. He's not a shooter, so that limits what he can do offensively. He may be best served to head back overseas rather than playing on another two-way in his age-24 season.

  3. Keyontae Johnson – Oklahoma City Thunder (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Johnson's story of overcoming a heart condition is great. What's also exciting is how well he played in the G League. 19.7 PPG on 53/40/80 shooting splits is good stuff. Johnson might be on a two-way again, but could be a standard guy.

  4. Braxton Key – Denver Nuggets (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Key was an overpowering scorer in the G League. His issue is that he hasn't shown enough as a shooter to earn a standard NBA deal. Key has one more year of two-way eligibility left and he'll probably use it.

  5. Seth Lundy – Atlanta Hawks (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Lundy didn't do much for the Hawks this season, but he played well in the G League. He can score and shoot on the minor-league level. He's already 24, so prospect status is waning. Look for another two-way year for Lundy.

  6. Justin Minaya – Portland Trail Blazers (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Minaya got to play a lot when the Trail Blazers season went south. Unfortunately, he didn't do much with that time. As a 25-year-old, Minaya might be best heading overseas for a bigger deal next season.

  7. Chuma Okeke – Orlando Magic (RFA)
    We'll never know what Okeke could have been, had he not torn his ACL right before entering the draft. What we do know is that he doesn't shoot it well enough to play an NBA role. He might be best off heading overseas to play more.

  8. Jermaine Samuels Jr. – Houston Rockets (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Samuels is a bit older for a two-way guy, but he had a really strong season in the G League. The other challenge is that Houston has a ton of forwards already. Maybe Samuels is back on another two-way unless Houston goes younger.

  9. Admiral Schofield – Orlando Magic (UFA / TWO-WAY)
    Schofield is well-liked and works hard. But he's undersized for a forward and he's 27 years old. Schofield is also out of two-way eligibility. It'll be a non-guaranteed camp deal or an overseas contract for Schofield.

  10. Jalen Slawson – Sacramento Kings (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Slawson can do a little bit of everything. He's a pretty tough defender and he's fairly athletic. Yet, as with so many fringe guys, Slawson just doesn't shoot it very well. But he'll get at least another two-way contract.

  11. Cole Swider – Portland Trail Blazers (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Unlike a lot of his fellow fringe guys, Swider can shoot. And he can shoot quite well too. But that's pretty much all he does. Miami may give it one more year on a two-way in hopes that he's the next Duncan Robinson or Max Strus.

  12. Jacob Toppin – New York Knicks (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Toppin put together a pretty solid all-around year in the G League. The Knicks might give him one more year to see if he can improve his shot. Otherwise, he'll bounce around the G League or head overseas for a big role.

  13. Ishmail Wainright – Phoenix Suns (RFA / TWO-WAY)
    Wainright has a great story of a guy who battled for his NBA chance. But he'll be 30 years old at the start of next season. That's not worth giving him another two-way deal. He's probabably heading back overseas.

  14. T.J. Warren – Minnesota Timberwolves (UFA)
    Warren did ok in his late-season comeback with the Wolves. But it looks like a few years of foot issues have sapped him of his quickness and lift. Warren may get a camp deal to prove himself, otherwise he'll be waiting for a call.

  15. Dylan Windler – Atlanta Hawks (UFA / TWO-WAY)
    Windler somehow set the G League record with a 33-rebound game this year. Beyond that, he never really got his shot going. And he's never gotten and stayed healthy. It could be over before it ever really started for Windler.

2024 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Keith SmithMay 26, 2024

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2024 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

STARTER TIER

  1. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Denver Nuggets (PLAYER)
    Caldwell-Pope will probably opt out, but he's likely not leaving Denver. Look for Caldwell-Pope and the Nuggets to sign a long-term deal that keeps him in Denver for at least a few more years.

  2. Malik Monk – Sacramento Kings (UFA)
    Monk is one of the best free agents who may actually change teams this summer. He's become a plug-and-play guy who can start or coming off the bench. He's going to get a big contract from someone this summer.

  3. Bruce Brown – Toronto Raptors (TEAM)
    It sounds like Toronto will pick up Brown's option. After that, the Raptors are expected to explore trades for the versatile guard/wing.

  4. Buddy Heild – Philadelphia 76ers (UFA)
    Hield dipped a bit with the Sixers, compared to his play with the Pacers, especially in the playoffs. But he's still one of the best shooters on the market this summer. He's almost 32, so deals might be a bit shorter in length.

  5. Gary Trent Jr. – Toronto Raptors (UFA)
    Trent is one of the best 3&D options who might change teams this summer. He's also only 25 years old, so there's plenty left in his legs. With Toronto resetting, someone should get a nice player in Trent this offseason.

  6. Gary Harris – Orlando Magic (UFA)
    Harris has been a solid 3&D guard for the Magic for a few years now. He's a tier lower than the players above him on this list. And Harris is now 30 years old. But for a chunk of the MLE, he'll be a nice pickup for someone.

  7. Malik Beasley – Milwaukee Bucks (UFA)
    Beasley is a starter level guy, and he shouldn't have to play on a minimum deal this season. As a reliable shooter, who stays healthy, Beasley is worth part of the MLE from a playoff team.

ROTATION TIER

  1. Luke Kennard – Memphis Grizzlies (TEAM)
    Kennard may be the best shooter in the NBA. The challenge is that he can't stay healthy. The Grizzlies may decline their team option for Kennard, because of tax concerns. If so, someone will snag a shooter on the cheap.

  2. Eric Gordon – Phoenix Suns (PLAYER)
    Despite the fact that he turns 36 years old next season, Gordon remains one of the more reliable bench scoring/shooting options in the NBA. He may choose to stay with the Suns, out of wanting to run it back.

  3. De’Anthony Melton – Philadelphia 76ers (UFA)
    After putting together a strong season two years ago, Melton missed most of last season with back issues. If healthy, Melton could be a nice combo guard as a starter or off the bench.

  4. Isaiah Joe – Oklahoma City Thunder (TEAM)
    The Thunder are likely to pick up their team option for Joe. He's been really good as their primary shooter off the bench for a couple of seasons now. Next year will be Joe's year to cash in through free agency.

  5. Alec Burks – New York Knicks (UFA)
    Burks mostly disappeared after being traded to the Knicks, before reemerging in the playoffs. Burks can still provide some shooting, scoring and ballhandling off the bench. That'll get him another deal this summer.

  6. Gary Payton II – Golden State Warriors (PLAYER)
    Payton is one of the better defensive guards…when he's healthy. Look for Payton to possibly opt out and re-sign with the Warriors on a smaller per-year contract, but spread over a few extra seasons.

  7. Lonnie Walker IV – Brooklyn Nets (UFA)
    Walker had a weird season. He was still a solid shooter and scorer, but he couldn't stick in the Nets rotation. He'll move on to a team that needs some scoring punch off their bench.

  8. Aaron Wiggins – Oklahoma City Thunder (TEAM)
    Oklahoma City is likely to pick up their team option for Wiggins. He's become a key rotation player for the Thunder off the bench. Look for the Thunder to bring him back next season on his team-friendly deal.

  9. Josh Richardson – Miami Heat (PLAYER)
    Richardson was putting together a solid season for the Heat, before missing back half of the year due to injury. Because of that, Richardson may pick up his option to run it back in Miami.

  10. Josh Okogie – Phoenix Suns (UFA)
    After a successful first season with the Suns, Okogie struggled in his second year in Phoenix. He had injuries and his rotation spot was uncertain. He's likely to opt in to try to find the forumla that made him successful a year ago.

  11. Evan Fournier – Detroit Pistons (TEAM)
    Fournier fell out of the rotation in New York and had little impact the last two seasons. Given the state of the Pistons, they'll decline his option. From there, it's about Fournier finding a team that needs some bench shooting/scoring.

  12. Justin Holiday – Denver Nuggets (UFA)
    Holiday went from veteran depth to key rotation guy for the Nuggets this season. If a team needs some shooting off their bench, Holiday is worth a look. He's like a minimum guy from here on out.

  13. Max Christie – Los Angeles Lakers (RFA)    
    Christie could pop as a 3&D player with regular minutes. The Lakers will probably look to keep Christie on a team-friendly deal, but if roster spots or the tax become issues, he could pop loose for another team's benefit.

  14. Talen Horton-Tucker – Utah Jazz (UFA)
    Horton-Tucker is an ok scorer and playmaker, but he can't shoot and he's not much of a defender. He won't make anything near what he made last year, but Horton-Tucker will get a look as a still young-ish guard.

  15. Shake Milton – New York Knicks (UFA)
    After being a rotation guard for Philadelphia, Milton never found his footing with Minnesota, Detroit or New York last season. He'll have offers for the minimum, but likely not more.

  16. Garrison Mathews – Atlanta Hawks (TEAM)
    Mathews can really shoot it. He was terrific in the designated shooter role, just don't ask him to do much else. Given the Hawks need for affordable role players, Mathews likely has his option picked up by Atlanta.

  17. Vit Krejic – Utah Jazz (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    Krejci is the rare two-way guy who is not a "fringe" free agent. He can really play, and could have been converted if Atlanta didn't have roster issues late in the year. Look for him to get a standard deal and to crack a rotation.

FRINGE TIER (UNRANKED AND PRESENTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

  1. Jules Bernard – Washington Wizards (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    Bernard has good size and flashed in both the NBA and the G League this season with shooting and playmaking. At the very least, he should get another look as a two-way player, but he could contend for a standard roster spot.

  2. Charlie Brown Jr. – New York Knicks (UFA / TWO-WAY)
    Brown is no longer two-way eligible. That means it's NBA or bust. Unfortunately, he hasn't shown enough to get a guaranteed NBA spot. It'll be the G League or overseas for him next season.

  3. David Duke Jr. – San Antonio Spurs (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    Duke shot it better this season and improved as a playmaker. He's got another year of two-way eligibility, so he'll get another chance to prove himself. Duke isn't there yet, but he's coming along as a combo guard.

  4. Trent Forrest – Atlanta Hawks (UFA)
    Forrest got the NBA callup last season, but he might not stick on a standard deal. He's a non-shooter and that's usually a no-go at the guard position, unless you bring other elite skills. Forrest may be headed overseas.

  5. Javonte Green – Chicago Bulls (UFA)
    Green did a great job to fight his way back to the NBA. He'll get a camp look, because he's a good athlete and a great teammate. If Green shot it a bit better, he'd be on a standard contract as a backup wing.

  6. Kevon Harris – Orlando Magic (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    Harris spent almost the entire season in the G League, where he was pretty productive. Something just hasn't clicked yet for him to get a real NBA look, even when Orlando had other guards out. He's probably moving on.

  7. Nate Hinton – Houston Rockets (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    Hinton is a competitive defender and a solid playmaker, but he's an inconsistent shooter. He's got another year of two-way eligibility, and he may use it to stick on an NBA roster. Beyond that, Hinton may be looking overseas.

  8. DaQuan Jeffries – New York Knicks (TEAM)
    Jeffries is too good for the G League, but not quite there as an NBA rotation guy. As it is, the Knicks like having him around quite a bit. If they don't need the roster spot and don't have tax concerns, Jeffries might be back.

  9. Keon Johnson – Brooklyn Nets (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    As a former first-round pick, Johnson still carries a bit of shine. He did a nice job in the G League last season as an all-around player. He'll get another shot as a camp invite or on his final season of two-way eligibility.

  10. Johnny Juzang – Utah Jazz (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    Juzang flashed in some late season minutes. He's got a knack for scoring, and he's not a bad shooter. Juzang will get another two-way, at least. He could maybe even earn a standard deal after a camp contract.

  11. Damion Lee – Phoenix Suns (PLAYER)
    Lee missed the entire season with a right knee injury. As such, he's likely to pick up his option. If he can make it back, he'll give the Suns a knockdown shooter off their bench.

  12. Wesley Matthews – Atlanta Hawks (UFA)
    We might be at the end of the line for the veteran 3&D wing. Matthews has slowed considerably as a defender, and his shot c

  13. Xavier Moon – Los Angeles Clippers (UFA / TWO-WAY)
    Moon is a dominant scorer in the G League. In the NBA, his lack of size of works against him. Moon might return to the G League or he could find a lucrative deal overseas, where his size isn't as much of a deterrent.

  14. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk – Boston Celtics (UFA)
    Mykhailiuk stays ready and he's a good shooter with good size. He's also a better passer than many realize. He could return to Boston in the same depth role, or Mykhailiuk could cash in with a big deal in Europe.

  15. Trevelin Queen – Orlando Magic (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    Queen is too athletic for most G League defenders to keep him from scoring. His NBA issue is that he can't shoot. He's got one year of two-way eligibility left, and he might use it to stick on an NBA roster for another run.

  16. Lester Quinones – Golden State Warriors (RFA)    
    The Warriors have tried really hard to make Quinones into a 3&D guy. His shot simply does fall consistently enough. He could get another year of work on a two-way, with a potential callup later in the season again.

  17. Jared Rhoden – Detroit Pistons (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    Rhoden should have gotten more of a look after the Pistons season fell apart. He's a good scorer and a pretty good shooter. He also gets on the boards. There's a player in there for Rhoden and he should get a real shot to show it.

  18. Jerome Robinson – Golden State Warriors (UFA / TWO-WAY)
    Washington scores in bunches in the G League. He's had only limited NBA opportunities though, and he's now 24 years old. He could get another two-way deal or cash in with a big deal overseason.

  19. Dereon Seabron – New Orleans Pelicans (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    Seabron hasn't seen much NBA time, but in two G League seasons, he's been an overpowering scorer. He shot more threes and shot them better this season. He could get a camp deal or another two-way contract.

  20. Garrett Temple – Toronto Raptors (UFA)
    We're closing in on the end for the longtime veteran combo guard. Temple doesn't have a lot left, but could fill an end-of-bench veteran role.

  21. Stanley Umude – Detroit Pistons (TEAM)
    Umude should have played more when the Pistons were struggling. He's a potential 3&D guy, and he shot it well this season in the NBA. Umude could get caught up in Detroit's cap space pursuits. That is a win for another team.

  22. Lindy Waters III – Oklahoma City Thunder (TEAM)
    Waters will likely return to the Thunder. He's been on and off the roster the last two years, but OKC likes him a lot. Look for his option to be picked up and then the Thunder will figure it out from there with roster spots.

  23. Nate Williams Jr. – Houston Rockets (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    Williams showed some stuff in limited NBA minutes last season. He was more up and down in the G League, but he's definitely worth another look on a two-way deal.

  24. Alondes Williams – Miami Heat (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    Williams was able to develop as a playmaker in the G League last season. The Heat might bring him back for another year of two-way work, because Williams has real combo guard potential.

  25. Isaiah Wong – Indiana Pacers (RFA / TWO-WAY)    
    Wong didn't get any real NBA shot, and his G League season was kind of shaky. He needs to shoot it better to get another two-way deal. As it stands, Wong needs a lot more seasoning in the minors before he's ready for the NBA

2024 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Scott AllenMay 23, 2024

ALL-NBA FIRST TEAM

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

2023-24 Salary: $33,386,850

Remaining Contract: 

  • 2024-25: $35,859,950
  • 2025-26: $38,333,050
  • 2026-27: $40,806,150

Financial Implications: Eligible for an estimated 4 year, $294,268,128 Super Max Extension which can be signed during the 2025 offseason.

  • 2027-28: $65,684,850 (estimated)
  • 2028-29: $70,939,638 (estimated)
  • 2029-30: $76,194,426 (estimated)
  • 2030-31: $81,449,214 (estimated)
  • Based on 2027-28 $187,671,000 cap

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

2023-24 Salary: $40,064,220

Remaining Contract:

  • 2024-25: $43,031,940
  • 2025-26: $45,999,660
  • 2026-27: $48,967,380 (Player Option)

Financial Implications: Eligible for an estimated 5 year, $346,338,300 Super Max Extension which can be signed during the 2025 offseason.

  • 2026-27: $59,713,500 (Current 2026-27 Player Option would be declined, estimated)
  • 2027-28: $64,490,580 (estimated)
  • 2028-29: $69,267,660 (estimated)
  • 2029-30: $74,044,740 (estimated)
  • 2030-31: $78,821,820 (estimated)
  • Based on 2026-27 $170,610,000 cap

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

2023-24 Salary: $46,900,000

Remaining Contract: 

  • 2024-25: $50,652,000
  • 2025-26: $54,404,000
  • 2026-27: $58,156,000
  • 2027-28: $61,908,000 (Player Option)

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

2023-24 Salary: $45,640,084

Remaining Contract: 

  • 2024-25: $48,787,676
  • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (Player Option)

Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

2023-24 Salary: $32,600,060

Remaining Contract: 

  • 2024-25: $34,848,340
  • 2025-26: $37,096,620 (Player Option)

Financial Implications: Tatum was already Super Max eligible from the 2022-23 All-NBA selection and is eligible to sign this offseason; he is eligible to sign an estimated 5 year, $314,853,000 extension.

  • 2025-26: $54,285,000 (estimated)
  • 2027-28: $58,627,800 (estimated)
  • 2028-29: $62,970,600 (estimated)
  • 2029-30: $67,313,400 (estimated)
  • 2030-31: $71,656,200 (estimated)
  • Based on 2025-26 $155,100,000 cap

ALL-NBA SECOND TEAM

Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks

2023-24 Salary: $26,346,666

Remaining Contract: 

  • 2024-25: $24,960,001
  • 2025-26: $24,960,001 (Player Option)

Financial Implications: Brunson is not Super Max eligible due to signing a Free Agent contract with New York.

Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves

2023-24 Salary: $13,534,817

Remaining Contract/Financial Implications: Edwards’ original 2024-25 starting salary was based on 25% of the cap, but had language written into his contract that allowed him to receive 30% of the cap if he received an All-NBA selection.

  • 2024-25: $42,300,000 (30% of the cap, estimated)
  • 2025-26: $45,684,000 (estimated)
  • 2026-27: $49,068,000 (estimated)
  • 2027-28: $52,452,000 (estimated)
  • 2028-29: $55,836,000 (estimated)
  • Based on 2024-25 $141,00,000 cap

Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns

2023-24 Salary: $47,649,433

Remaining Contract: 

  • 2024-25: $51,179,021
  • 2025-26: $54,708,609

Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers

2023-24 Salary: $45,640,084

Remaining Contract: 

  • 2024-25: $49,350,000 (estimated)
  • 2025-26: $50,000,000
  • 2026-27: $50,000,000

Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers

2023-24 Salary: $40,600,080

Remaining Contract: 

  • 2024-25: $43,219,440
  • 2025-26: $54,285,000 (estimated)
  • 2026-27: $58,627,800 (estimated)
  • 2027:28: $62,970,600 (estimated/Player Option)

ALL-NBA THIRD TEAM

LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

2023-24 Salary: $47,607,350

Remaining Contract: 

  • 2024-25: $51,415,938 (Player Option)

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

2023-24 Salary: $51,915,615

Remaining Contract: 

  • 2024-25: $55,761,216
  • 2025-26: $59,606,817

Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings

2023-24 Salary: $30,600,000

Remaining Contract: 

  • 2024-25: $41,800,000
  • 2025-26: $44,936,000
  • 2026-27: $48,072,000
  • 2027-28: $51,208,000

Financial Implications: Sabonis earned a $1,300,000 bonus for making any of the All-NBA teams. This was already likely to be earned from last season's All-NBA selection.

Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers

2023-24 Salary: $5,808,435

Remaining Contract/Financial Implications: Haliburton’s original 2024-25 starting salary was based on 25% of the cap, but had language written into his contract that allowed him to receive 30% of the cap if he received an All-NBA selection.

  • 2024-25: $42,300,000 (30% of the cap, estimated)
  • 2025-26: $45,684,000 (estimated)
  • 2026-27: $49,068,000 (estimated)
  • 2027-28: $52,452,000 (estimated)
  • 2028-29: $55,836,000 (estimated)
  • Based on 2024-25 $141,00,000 cap

Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns

2023-24 Salary: $36,016,200

Remaining Contract: 

  • 2024-25: $49,350,000 (estimated)
  • 2025-26: $53,298,000 (estimated)
  • 2026-27: $57,246,000 (estimated)
  • 2027-28: $61,194,000 (estimated)
  • Based on 2024-25 $141,00,000 cap
Keith SmithMay 20, 2024

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2024 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

ALL-STAR TIER

  1. Tyrese Maxey – Philadelphia 76ers (RFA)    
    Maxey is a free agent in name only. He's going to re-sign with Philadelphia on a five-year max deal worth either 25% and possibly up to 30% of the cap.

  2. James Harden – LA Clippers (UFA)
    Harden is very likely to re-sign with the Clippers. The questions are for how many years and how much money? He's still an offensive force, even if he's slipping. That keeps him in All-Star consideration and near the top of this list.

  3. Immanuel Quickley – Toronto Raptors (RFA) 
    If a cap space team wanted to offer Quickley a max contract, the Raptors might blink. Otherwise, Toronto will re-sign Quickley and install him as their point guard of the future. He was THE get in the OG Anunoby trade.

STARTER TIER

  1. D'Angelo Russell – Los Angeles Lakers (PLAYER)
    Russell is in an interesting spot. He's not going to be a top target for any of the cap space teams, but some of them could turn to him. He can score and pass. Put the right defense around him, and he's a solid starting point guard.

  2. Tyus Jones – Washington Wizards (UFA)
    Jones first year as a starter went pretty well. He put up career-highs nearly across the board. Jones is a low-end starter and a high-end backup. He'll have plenty of offers, should he choose to leave a starting job in Washington.

  3. Russell Westbrook – LA Clippers (PLAYER)
    We're closing in on the end for Westbrook, but we aren't there yet. He's best as a backup, but could still be a starter somewhere. He'll probably return to the Clippers, but he might try to find a bigger role elsewhere.

  4. Markelle Fultz – Orlando Magic (UFA)
    Fultz dealt with injuries again. He's abandoned any pretense of a three-point shot. But he does a nice job in the midrange game, and he's a solid defender. He'd be a low-end starter, but a pretty good backup, just not in Orlando.

  5. Kyle Lowry – Philadelphia 76ers (UFA)
    Lowry is squeezing all he can out of his career at this point. He seemed rejuvenated by landing at home in Philadelphia. Look for Lowry to return to the Sixers, likely on a minimum deal as a low-minutes starter or as Maxey's backup.

ROTATION TIER

  1. Monte Morris – Minnesota Timberwolves (UFA)
    This was a lost season for Morris. He wasn't healthy with Detroit and didn't carve out a real role with Minnesota. Still, he's one of the best backup point guards in the NBA. He'll have no problem finding a contract to fill that role.

  2. Jose Alvarado – New Orleans Pelicans (TEAM)
    Alvarado probably won't even hit free agency. The Pelicans are close enough to the tax line that picking up his option and dealing with free agency next summer is the way. He's a key backup for New Orleans, so he'll stick around.

  3. Patrick Beverley – Milwaukee Bucks (UFA)
    Beverley isn't the defender he once was. He's also hit the point where he's known as much for his antics as his play on the floor. But he can still hit shots and defend better than most. He'll get another minimum deal from someone.

  4. Spencer Dinwiddie – Los Angeles Lakers (UFA)
    Dinwiddie's stint with Lakers went about the same as his last couple of seasons have gone. He's become mostly a three-point shooter as he's aged. Someone will offer him a deal as a backup.

  5. Reggie Jackson – Denver Nuggets (PLAYER)
    Jackson will likely pick up his player option. He's not going to make that much anywhere else. He'll be back with Denver as a solid backup for Jamal Murray, or he'll be traded to fill a roster hole elsewhere.

  6. Kris Dunn – Utah Jazz (UFA)
    Dunn got his career on track with two good years in Utah. He's one of the better defensive lead guards in the game. More importantly, he's shot well for two seasons. Dunn should get a nice contract for a team looking for a third guard.

  7. Cameron Payne – Philadelphia 76ers (UFA)
    Payne is a fine backup point guard. You could do better, but you could do a whole lot worse. He'll have offers for the minimum from a lot of different teams. We'll see if anyone goes a little further to get him locked into their rotation.

  8. Dennis Smith Jr. – Brooklyn Nets (UFA)
    After almost washing out of the NBA, Smith has done a nice job getting his career going. He can't shoot, but he's learned to use his athleticism to get downhill and on defense. You could do a lot worse at backup point guard than Smith.

  9. Dalano Banton – Portland Trail Blazers (TEAM)
    Beware good stats on a bad team! But Banton has shown he can play before putting up numbers as Portland played out the string. As such, the Blazers will pick up his option to keep him around on a very friendly contract.

  10. Delon Wright – Portland Trail Blazers (UFA)
    Wright is in the journeyman stage of his career. He can still play, so he'll probably keep getting backup point guard jobs. But he's going to get part of the MLE or minimums from here on out. And that’s fine value for where Wright is at.

  11. Aaron Holiday – Houston Rockets (UFA)
    Holiday had a terrific season as a the backup point guard for the Rockets, which allowed the team to bring Amen Thompson along slowly. Holiday should get a deal to return, but this time as the third point guard in a deep guard group.

  12. Jordan McLaughlin – Minnesota Timberwolves (UFA)
    For whatever reason, McLaughlin hasn't every fully seized a rotation role. He's had one for moment, but never kept it. The offensive production is impressive, so someone might get a steal here for a minimum deal or a bit more.

FRINGE TIER (UNRANKED AND PRESENTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

  1. Amari Bailey – Charlotte Hornets (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    Bailey was fine in the G League. He's got decent size for the position. In order to breakthrough in the NBA, he'll need to shoot it a lot better. He's likely headed back to the G League or overseas.

  2. J.D. Davison – Boston Celtics (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    In two years, Davison has seen minimum NBA run. He's an overwhelming athlete in the G League, and an much-improved playmaker. The challenge is that Davison can't shoot. Until that improves, he won't crack an NBA roster.

  3. Jeff Dowtin – Philadelphia 76ers (TEAM)
    Dowtin put together a nice run for the Sixers, after a bunch of other guys were injured. He also had a solid season in the G League. If he's not a cap space casualty, Dowtin would be back as deep bench depth on a friendly contract.

  4. Malachi Flynn – Detroit Pistons (RFA) 
    Flynn put up the most unlikely 50-point game in NBA history. But before and after that, there just hasn't been enough improvement. He's also 26 years old now. This is probably a third-guard on a minimum type of situation, at best.

  5. Jordan Ford – Sacramento Kings (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    Ford's size works against him, but he shot it really well in the G League this season. He's still more scorer than playmaker, but there's potential there. Another G League season is likely in his future.

  6. Collin Gillespie – Denver Nuggets (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    Gillespie got healthy, after missing his entire rookie season due to injury. He showed he can shoot and score. The Nuggets like him, so he may be back on the big roster as the third point guard.

  7. Jacob Gilyard – Brooklyn Nets (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    Gilyard had quite the season for a two-way guy. He played a lot because Memphis was hit with so many injuries. Gilyard is tiny, but he can shoot from deep and he can run an offense. He'll be a third guard or on a two-way somewhere.

  8. Jordan Goodwin – Memphis Grizzlies (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    Goodwin had every opportunity to breakthrough as an NBA guy last year, and he just didn't take it. He's got good size, but he shot terribly with both Phoenix and Memphis. Still, he showed enough previously to get another NBA shot.

  9. Ashton Hagans – Portland Trail Blazers (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    Hagans was just ok in late-season minutes for Portland. He did a nice job in the G League though. Another two-way deal would be good for Hagans, even if he's now aged out of prospect status.

  10. Quenton Jackson – Indiana Pacers (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    If Jackson could shoot, he'd be a lot more interesting as a two-way guy. He's got terrific size for the position, he has a nice feel for the game and he's a competitive defender. But as a non-shooter, it's hard to see him making it in the NBA.

  11. Saben Lee – Phoenix Suns (UFA / TWO-WAY)
    Lee has taken it as far as he can as a two-way guy, as he's no longer eligible for a two-way deal. He's still more scorer than shooter or playmaker. That works against him. An overseas deal may be next up for Lee.

  12. Kira Lewis Jr. – Utah Jazz (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    Despite initial promise in his rookie season, Lewis never really got there. As a former first-round pick, he'll need to rebuild his value in the G League or overseason. But he only need to look at teammate Kris Dunn to see the path.

  13. Skylar Mays – Los Angeles Lakers (UFA / TWO-WAY)
    Mays is too good for the G League, but not quite good enough to snag a full NBA roster spot. He's out of two-way eligibility, so it's a camp deal and battling for a spot, or heading overseas for a bigger deal and role.

  14. Patty Mills – Miami Heat (UFA)
    We might be at the end of the line for Mills, who has had a great career. He'll be 36 years old next season, so it's a minimum deal or nothing. Maybe a big summer with Australia could propel him for more, but it's unlikely.

  15. Daishen Nix – Minnesota Timberwolves (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    Nix is tough, he's a pretty good scorer and an improving playmaker. He just can't shoot. On the plus side, he's only 22 years old. So, there's some potential left. He's only got one year of two-way eligibility remaining though.

  16. Trequavion Smith – Philadelphia 76ers (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    Smith can fill it up as a scorer. He's only just started to figure out the playmaking part of being a point guard. At 21 years old, Smith would be perfect for another year on a two-way as a developmental player.

  17. Isaiah Thomas – Phoenix Suns (UFA)
    Thomas did well to battle back into the NBA. Now, who knows? He's 35 years old, he's still small and the athleticism is starting to wane. Maybe Thomas earned another look. If not, it's been one heck of a run.

  18. Duane Washington Jr. – New York Knicks (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    Washington scores in bunches in the G League. He's had only limited NBA opportunities though, and he's now 24 years old. He could get another two-way deal or cash in with a big deal overseason.

  19. TyTy Washington Jr. – Milwaukee Bucks (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    As a former first-round pick, Washington has some cache that others in this range don't. The challenge is that he hasn't shown it in the NBA. He's likely back on another two-way deal somewhere next season.

  20. Brandon Williams – Dallas Mavericks (RFA / TWO-WAY) 
    Williams uses his athleticism to overwhelm players on the G League level to score. He's not a great shooter though. That, plus his lack of size, holds him back from breaking through with an NBA role.

2024 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Keith SmithMay 12, 2024

The 2024 NBA Draft order is almost fully set after the Draft Lottery saw some excitement. The Atlanta Hawks jumped from the 10th overall pick to the first overall pick. The Houston Rockets (via the Brooklyn Nets) jumped from the ninth overall pick to the third overall pick. And the San Antonio Spurs run of draft luck continued, as they not only jumped from the fifth overall pick to the fourth overall pick, but they also got the Toronto Raptors pick, when it slid down to the eighth overall pick.

The only remaining draft pick item is whether or not the New Orleans Pelicans will take the Los Angeles Lakers pick at 17th overall, or if the Pelicans will defer that pick to the 2025 NBA Draft. New Orleans has until June 1 to make the decision. Most expect the Pels to defer, given the projected strength of the 2025 draft class compared to this current one.

As the Pelicans decision won’t have any meaningful impact on our projections here, it’s time to update the projections.

A few notes:

  • We are using the NBA’s official projections for the salary cap and tax lines. Some are projecting greater growth than the 3.5% represented here, but we will always use the official projections from the league.
    • Salary Cap of $141,000,000
    • Luxury Tax of $171,315,000
    • First Apron of $178,655,000
    • Second Apron of $189,485,000
  • Max salary tiers grow with the cap. They are as follows:
    • 0-6 Years of Service: $35,250,000
    • 7-9 Years of Service: $42,300,000
    • 10+ Years of Service: $49,350,000
  • A projection has been made on all 2024-25 player and team options. Similarly, a projection was made on all partial and non-guaranteed contracts. And, finally, a projection made on renouncing free agents has also been made for cap space teams.
  • No trades, extensions or signings have been projected. Essentially, rosters are as they stand at the time of publication.
  • With the advent of the new CBA, the landscape has changed around the NBA. There used to be three basic categories of teams each summer: Cap Space teams, Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams. Each season there would also be a handful of “swing” teams that could fall in one bucket or another.

In this new world, we have a fourth category: Second Apron teams. These are the NBA’s most expensive teams that the new CBA was largely designed to punish.

Under the new CBA, if you are at or over the second apron, you lose access to the Taxpayer MLE. In addition, the trade rules tighten up for these teams. Salary-matching in trades is limited to 100%, they aren’t allowed to aggregate salaries together in trades, they can’t participate in sign-and-trade deals, they can’t send out cash in trades (no more buying draft picks!) and they won’t be able to use TPEs.

Essentially, Second Apron teams are going to limited to re-signing their own free agents, making trades where they take back the same money as they send out (or less) buy trading one player out, signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum salaries.

With all that said, here is the updated projected spending power for each NBA team in 2024 free agency!

Cap Space Teams (6)

  1. Detroit Pistons: $64.4 million

  2. Philadelphia 76ers: $61.3 million

  3. Utah Jazz: $38.3 million

  4. Oklahoma City Thunder: $35.3

  5. Orlando Magic: $25.2 million

  6. San Antonio Spurs: $21.3 million

This is the smallest group of teams we can confidently project to have cap space in a decade of doing this exercise. As more and more teams prioritize extensions and trades, cap space (and the number of impact free agents) has dried up. Still, as we write every time we talk about cap space, having this kind of room doesn’t just mean signing free agents. Cap space can also be used to facilitate trades, either for yourself or others.

The Pistons jumped up to the top of the list after a series of moves where they shed some long-term money to create even more cap flexibility. As it stands now, the only non-Rookie Scale player Detroit projects to have on their roster is Isaiah Stewart, who is starting a four-year, $60 million Rookie Scale extension. Simone Fontecchio will probably get a qualifying offer, as the third-year NBA player is the closest thing this roster has in terms of age and experience. Dropping back in the draft from the first pick to the fifth pick increased Detroit’s spending power by over $4 million. That makes for yet another year of massive amounts of cap space for Troy Weaver to work with.

The Sixers have been bandied about as having double-max cap space and the like for months now. For a while, that seemed extremely unlikely. It’s still not really a thing, but they can get close. There’s a world where the only salary commitments Philadelphia has on the books are Joel Embiid at $51.4 million and Tyrese Maxey’s cap hold at $13 million. That would see the Sixers able to create nearly $65 million in space. That’s still not double-max cap space, but it’s really, really close. We’re going to stay a bit more conservative and project the 76ers to also keep Ricky Council IV and their draft pick, and that will put them at just over $61 million in space.

Utah made some moves to clear out a little long-term salary, or at least salary questions, at the deadline. That sees the Jazz set up to have over #38 million million in cap space. Danny Ainge is talking about going star-hunting this summer. If that fails, a large chunk of that will probably be reserved to do a renegotiation-and-extension with Lauri Markkanen. Even after that, Utah should still have a nice amount left over after to do some more work with.

Oklahoma City hasn’t seen enough from Gordon Hayward post-trade deadline to keep him on the books. They should hit the summer with only a few open roster spots and about $35 million to spend. That’s terrifying for the rest of the league, considering how well this extremely young team is already performing.

Orlando comes in fifth in cap space projections by virtue of having a roster full of players on rookie scale contracts and team-friendly deals. This includes all of the Magic’s best players. In the recent past, Orlando has eschewed cap space to re-sign or extend their own players. That seems poised to change, as the Magic are finally in position to really push the rebuild forward with an impact addition or two. And they need to do that before they have to start extending players like Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero in coming years. In order to create meaningful space, Orlando will have to move on from one, or both, of Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac. Both players have been extremely injury prone during their Magic tenure. One thing to keep an eye on: Orlando could let both go for cap space (renouncing Fultz and waiving Isaac), then bring them back on new deals at lower numbers, but with additional years added on. Fow now, we’re projecting Fultz is renounced as a free agent, but Isaac sticks around for the final season of his contract.

San Antonio could stay over the cap, if they wanted to keep their non-guaranteed and partially-guaranteed players. But having over $21 million to spend, along with two more lottery picks, puts the Spurs in position to add talent as they attempt to climb up in the Western Conference standings.

Cap Space – Non-Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (2)

  1. Charlotte Hornets

  2. Toronto Raptors

Charlotte is in a bit of a weird spot. For another season, the Miles Bridges question hangs over this team. He signed the qualifying offer, so Bridges will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Signs are pointing toward Bridges and the Hornets wanting to sign a new contract. If that happens, the Hornets will operate as an over-the-cap team. After dropping in the lottery, if Charlotte moves on from some players (including Bridges), they can create about $33.8 million in cap space. Keep an eye on this situation, especially with a fresh start in ownership, the front office and the coaching staff.

We’re now projecting the Raptors to forgo cap space this summer. This over-the-cap projection accounts for picking up Bruce Brown’s team option. Once Toronto signed Kelly Olynyk to his extension, that signaled they’ll probably stay over the cap and pursue upgrades via trades and value signings. If the Raptors were to decline Brown’s option, and waive/renounce other players (except for Immanuel Quickley), they could create $29.8 million in cap space. Keeping Brown, and others, is probably the better path forward, so we’ve updated this projection accordingly.

Non-Taxpayer MLE Teams (6)

This is usually the largest group of teams we have, and it may well still end up that way. But for now, we can confidently project only six teams to be in range of using the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

  1. Brooklyn Nets

  2. Houston Rockets

  3. Indiana Pacers

  4. New York Knicks

  5. Sacramento Kings

  6. Washington Wizards

All six of these teams have two things in common: They look to have only handful of roster spots to fill and they have plenty of clearance under the first apron. That puts all of these teams in range to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE without tripping into any hard cap issues.

In addition, unlike the swing teams, there isn’t a reasonable path to cap space for any of these teams. Indiana would be the closest, but they’d be punting on some valuable players to create cap space. That seems highly unlikely. Houston and Washington could have been swing Cap Space-Non-Taxpayer teams, but both took on money for next season in trades that has them likely to stay over the cap.

Non-Taxpayer MLE – Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (3)

This group is close to tripping into the luxury tax, or even over the first apron. Most of that is related to pending free agents that these teams could re-sign. And for a handful, they are close enough to the first apron, that the hard cap would become an issue if they used the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

  1. Chicago Bulls

  2. Cleveland Cavaliers

  3. New Orleans Pelicans

The Bulls, Cavaliers and Pelicans are all going to have free agent decisions to make. If they re-sign, or extend, those players to expected-value contracts, they’ll be butting up against the tax or even the first apron. That will take them out of range of using the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The lone exception here is if Chicago were to lose DeMar DeRozan. If that happened, the Bulls would have more than enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. That situation could resolve itself early, however, if DeRozan and the Bulls can reach an agreement on an extension.

Taxpayer MLE Teams (5)

The addition of the second apron has created a smaller-than-usual window for teams to be in position to use the Taxpayer MLE, but without creating issues against the second apron hard cap.

  1. Atlanta Hawks

  2. Dallas Mavericks

  3. Golden State Warriors

  4. Miami Heat

  5. Portland Trail Blazers

The Hawks are in a tricky spot. As it stands, they have a pretty small window to work within. And that’s before re-signing Saddiq Bey. But Atlanta also seems pretty likely to move off some long-term salary this summer. That could free up some much-needed flexibility. But dancing around the tax and the first apron is still pretty likely too. This only increased after jumping from the 10th overall pick up to the first overall pick. That added over $7 million to the Hawks books (from $5.5 to $12.6 million) for this upcoming season.

The Mavericks project to be around $13 million under the second apron, but they also only have a few roster spots to fill. That leaves enough room to use the Taxpayer MLE to add a player, with enough wiggle room to stay under the hard cap that would be created at the second apron.

We’ve moved the Warriors into this group. They continue to publicly indicate that they are going to get under the second apron, if not out of the tax entirely this summer. That would mean moving on from Chris Paul (he’s got a fully non-guaranteed $30 million contract) and re-signing Klay Thompson for roughly half what he makes now. That’s not really unrealistic, so we’ll take Golden State at their word and move them out of the second apron group.

Miami is always active and chasing upgrades. But they’ll be doing so while dancing around the first apron. It’s unlikely they’ll end up over the second apron, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

It might be a surprise to see the rebuilding Trail Blazers in this spot, but they took on a good amount of salary in the Damian Lillard trade, and the subsequent Jrue Holiday trade. Portland also re-signed Jerami Grant to a big contract too. And, somewhat surprisingly, the Blazers didn’t make any big moves at the trade deadline. As it stands, Portland sits just over the luxury tax line. That won’t be a thing for long, as a rebuilding team can’t pay the tax. But it will limit what kind of spending power Portland has this summer. Instead of free agent signings, look for the Trail Blazers to keep retooling their roster through trades.

Second Apron Teams (8)

This is our largest group of teams for 2024 offseason projections. This is a direct result of two things. First, the second apron exists now, and some teams are over or up against it. Second, several teams took the “gap year” (or maybe better put the “get your books in order year”) to load up. That’s got us in a spot where almost one-third of the league will be unable to add a free agent for more than the minimum this summer.

  1. Boston Celtics

  2. Denver Nuggets

  3. LA Clippers

  4. Los Angeles Lakers

  5. Memphis Grizzlies

  6. Milwaukee Bucks

  7. Minnesota Timberwolves

  8. Phoenix Suns

All eight of these teams are already over or right up against the second apron. Or they will be once they re-sign some key free agents. From there, this group will be limited to re-signing their own free agents, making trades where they take in similar (but not more) money, signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum contracts.

Something to keep an eye on: Some of this group underwhelmed in the postseason (Clippers, Lakers, Bucks, Suns). That means they could look to move a player or two to start the process of cleaning up their cap sheet. But most of these teams are contenders, or could be contenders with better health or a roster move or two. That’s going to keep most, if not all, of them in a position to remain pretty expensive.

 

Keith SmithMarch 18, 2024

We already covered the NBA’s 10 Best Value Contracts in a previous piece. Now, it’s time to look at some of the worst value contracts in the league. Full disclosure: Opposite of the best contracts, it’s getting harder and harder to find 10 bad or even questionable contracts. More and more these deals trend towards a “Kind of get it, but don’t like it” thought vs being a truly bad deal.

A few notes:

  • Unlike the Best Values, you will see max contracts and max extensions here. Some of them are just sort of mind-boggling in terms of long-term committed salary.
  • No rookie scale contracts will appear here. Even if we think the pick was bad, the contract is what it is with rookie scale deals.
  • This is a worst value list, so role and production vs contract factor in greatly. The same is true of not only the size of the contract (both per year and in total), but the length of the contract too. And the player’s age is a major factor as well.
  • No expiring contracts, nor contracts that are turning into expiring deals next season will be here. So, you won’t find Ben Simmons or Lonzo Ball on this list. As history has taught us, once a contract is an expiring contract, it always has some level of trade value.
  • This list factors in right now and looking forward. In all cases, total money will include this season, plus what’s remaining on the deal.

Got all that? On to the list!

Honorable Mentions

It was hard enough to find 10 contracts we felt deserved to be here. This time around, we’re not going to include any honorable (dishonorable, maybe?) mentions. They’d all be a stretch, as you’ll see when we get to the final few deals we are including.

On to the 10 Worst Values Contracts!

10 Worst Values Contracts

1. Bradley Beal – Phoenix Suns

Four years, $207.7 million (player option in 2026-27)

This contract was questionable when it was signed, and it’s only gotten worse. Beal isn’t worth an AAV of over $50 million per season. His production isn’t at that level, and he also can’t stay healthy. In addition, the player option here makes this even worse, as Beal has control over what happens in what will be his age-33 season. If that wasn’t enough, he still has his no-trade clause.

2. Jordan Poole – Washington Wizards

Four years, $123 million

It’s kind of funny that the players at the top of this list were effectively traded for each other. Poole’s track record of good health and the fact that he makes nearly $85 million less than Beal is why he comes in below him on the list. But don’t get it twisted, Poole’s production doesn’t match his contract. And, we’ve discovered again, that he’s better in a bench role. $30.75 million AAV is an awfully big contract for a reserve.

3. Zach LaVine – Chicago Bulls

Four years, $178.1 million (player option in 2026-27)

Continuing a trend of shooting guards on tough contracts, we have LaVine. This one is mostly about health. LaVine has missed a lot of this season, and he’s now built a history of knee/leg/foot issues. That’s scary considering how much money he’s owed. And, last but not least, he apparently still wants a trade. That’s a whole lot of negatives going on.

4. Andrew Wiggins – Golden State Warriors

Four years, $109 million (player option in 2026-27)

Wiggins has fallen off since the 2022 NBA Finals. After playing a huge role in the Warriors title that year, Wiggins has missed a lot of time due to off-court matters. We wouldn’t hold that against him as much if he was productive when he did play, but he hasn’t been. That’s a tough combo to swallow. And Golden State still has three more fully guaranteed years left after this one, and Wiggins will turn 30 years old midway through next season. That’s tough to deal with.

5. Khris Middleton – Milwaukee Bucks

Three years, $95 million (player option in 2025-26)

Middleton’s deal would be fine, if he wasn’t visibly breaking down. He’s suffered through three consecutive injury-plagued seasons now. Middleton has also slipped considerably as a defender. As an offensive player, he’s now best as a complementary guy vs being a primary one. That’s good because the Bucks have stars to carry the load. But it doesn’t make Middleton’s contract look any better.

6. Jerami Grant – Portland Trail Blazers

Five years, $160 million (player option in 2027-28)

Grant’s contract is fine right now. It’s probably fine next year too. It’s the final three seasons at over $102 million where things might turn sideways. Grant recently turned 30 years old. That means he’ll be a 34-year-old wing that relies on athleticism at the end of this contract. That’s very worrisome.

7. Draymond Green – Golden State Warriors

Four years, $100 million (player option in 2026-27)

If Green could be relied on to be on the floor, this contract would probably be fine. But between getting himself in consistent trouble with the league, and a mounting injury history, it’s unlikely Green will play many more than half of the maximum games he could on this deal. In addition, he’s openly talked about how retirement is looming. That’s not great for a Warriors team that needs Green to play, and play well, through the life of this contract.

8. Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls

Three years, $60 million

This is where it starts getting really hard to find truly bad contracts. Vucevic’s deal isn’t really all that bad. It’s just sort of…unnecessary. Vucevic is still a nightly double-double guy, but his efficiency is starting to slip. A lot of that is Vucevic being more reliant on his jumper than ever. If that continues, and there aren’t any signs it won’t, the Bulls are under water with this deal.

9. Karl-Anthony Towns – Minnesota Timberwolves

Five years, $257 million (player option in 2027-28) (includes four-year, $221 million extension)

The last two contracts on this list are extensions that don’t seem likely to age very well. Towns is still a terrific offensive weapon, but it’s never been clearer that he can’t anchor the defense for a contender. That means he has to play power forward, and Towns isn’t the same matchup nightmare there as he is as center. In addition, this season is the second in a row where Towns has missed considerable time with a leg injury. Last season it was a calf injury, this year it’s a torn meniscus. That’s worrisome for a guy who hasn’t even started his $221 million long-term extension yet.

10. Damian Lillard – Milwaukee Bucks

Four years, $207.3 million (player option in 2026-27) (includes two-year, $112.9 million extension)

Lillard is still performing at a high level…most of the time. However, the occasional 3-for-17 clunkers are creeping in more and more often. And Lillard’s defense has gone from bad to really bad. Neither of those things are likely to reverse, as Lillard will be 34 years old at the start of next season. And, look, we get it. Lillard got this contract based mostly on past performance. That’s how it works for the late-career max guys. But that doesn’t mean the Bucks won’t be working around this contract when Lillard is making well over $50 million when he’s 35 and 36 years old.

Keith SmithMarch 16, 2024

The NBA has gotten better about handing out value contracts. It’s become increasingly harder and harder to limit this list to just 10 deals. Some of that is the rapid growth of the salary cap, but a lot is teams are being smarter who gets big money.

A few notes before we get to the list:

  • You won’t see any max contracts on here, nor max extensions. Even if you think it’s fair to pay a player $100 million per season, that’s not allowed. (Well, at least not yet. Wait about five more years or so.) That means that no matter how good it looks that teams got some players to ink max deals, they won’t show up here.
  • No rookie scale contracts will appear here either. Like a max deal, it’s nearly impossible to do better than teams already do on these deals. No Second Round Pick Exception deals either.
  • Also, we’re not including anyone signed to a Minimum Exception deal. Those are largely a circumstantial thing. Plus, they run only two seasons at most, so the value is limited.
  • This is a best value list, so role and production factor in greatly. The same is true of not only the size of the contract (both per year and in total), but the length of the contract too. No one-year steals will show up here.
  • This list factors in right now and looking forward. In all cases, total money will include this season, plus what’s remaining on the deal.

Got all that? On to the list!

Honorable Mentions

Oklahoma City Thunder

A whole team? Yup, a whole team! Now, to be fair, the Thunder’s salary cap sheet features a whole bunch of key players on rookie scale contracts. And, yes, they’ll start getting expensive here in the next few years, as those players sign extensions. But for now, Oklahoma City is one of the best teams in the NBA and they have a remarkably clean cap sheet. That’s scary for the rest of the league.

Wendell Carter Jr. – Orlando Magic

Carter has been terrific for Orlando, but he has missed considerable time with injuries. That’s the only thing holding him back from making the top-10.

Ayo Dosunmu – Chicago Bulls

 Dosunmu provides starter-level production for roughly half to the Non-Taxpayer MLE. Sure, he might move back to the bench if the Bulls other guards get healthy. But, even then, Dosunmu would still be on a great contract, and are you really betting on Chicago’s guards getting and staying healthy?

On to the 10 Best Value Contracts!

10 Best Value Contracts

1. Jalen Brunson – New York Knicks

Three years, $76.3 million (player option in 2025-26)

Brunson is the Knicks leader and has become the team’s heartbeat in under two full seasons. He’s stayed pretty healthy throughout his career, so that gives Brunson a level of reliability for New York. He’s also incredibly productive, and his game has translated to winning. And, a key for a team that has added a lot of salary and will continue to do so, Brunson’s deal declines from this season to next by nearly $1.4 million. Also, Brunson has been so good, that we’re willing to overlook that player option which likely makes next season a contract year.

2. Jaren Jackson Jr. – Memphis Grizzlies

Three years, 75.8 million

Jackson is one of the best defenders in the NBA. This season, he’s shown he can anchor the frontcourt defense, as he’s had to play at the five more than ever. Jackson has also had to take on a bigger offensive role this season, with so many other Grizzlies injured. He’s lost some efficiency, but Jackson has shown he can handle more creation and playmaking. Like Brunson, his deal also declines year over year. That’s huge for Memphis, who has locked into a lot of long-term money for players on extensions.

3. Kawhi Leonard – LA Clippers

Four years, $195.3 million

This one is cheating a little bit. Leonard is on a max contract this year, and he will be next season too. But the last two years of Leonard’s deal are below the max he could have signed for. That’s good value for the Clippers. This season, Leonard has largely stayed healthy and he’s played well enough that he’s going to appear on a lot of MVP ballots. For less than the max, even a couple of years from now, that’s great value.

4. Domantas Sabonis – Sacramento Kings

Five years, $216.6 million

Sabonis’ deal is actually going to come in a bit less than above, as not being named an All-Star this year cost him some bonus money. That only makes his contract a better value. Sure, the final two seasons, when Sabonis will be in his early-30s, could turn a little sour. But we’re going to bet that this double-double machine will keep being an underrated big man through the life of his contract.

5. Zion Williamson – New Orleans Pelicans

Five years, $197.2 million

Alright, this one is full-on cheating. Williamson is on a max deal, but there’s a reason we’re including him here. Due to clauses that the Pelicans smartly included in Williamson’s deal, his contract isn’t fully guaranteed. If he has a reoccurrence of injuries and/or weight issues, New Orleans can get out of the contract with relatively little owed. We don’t expect that to happen, as Williamson looks good physically and is playing as well as he ever has. But having that protection is huge for the Pelicans or another team, if New Orleans were to ever trade Williamson.

6. Coby White – Chicago Bulls

Three years, $36 million

When this deal was signed last summer, it looked like a fair value. Nearly a year later, this contract is a great value for the Bulls. White should be garnering a lot of Most Improved Player love. He started playing better at the end of last season, and that’s carried over. White’s improvement into a legitimate starting guard is a big reason the Bulls don’t need to panic about Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine’s uncertain futures.

7. Herb Jones – New Orleans Pelicans

Four years, $53.8 million

Herb Jones is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. Actually, he may be THE best perimeter defender in the NBA. That alone would make a deal that comes in under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount a great value. But Jones has improved as an offensive player each season too. This year, he’s shot over 43% from deep. If he shoots that well, while maintaining DPOY levels of defense, Jones will have broken the 3&D mold and rewritten whatever ceiling was previously put on his potential.

8. Austin Reaves – Los Angeles Lakers

Four years, $53.8 million (player option in 2026-27)

Reaves is a touch behind Jones on this list, because Jones has filled his role a little bit better and Reaves has a player option on the final season of his deal. But Reaves is still a tremendous value for the Lakers. A little shine has come off of Reaves since last season, but it shouldn’t have. He’s still a tremendously efficient shooter and scorer, but Reaves has also improved as a playmaker too. And he does all of that for less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

9. Mikal Bridges – Brooklyn Nets

Three years, $69.9 million

We’re knocking Bridges down behind Jones and Reaves only because he makes more than them, and his deal runs one year shorter. That means Bridges is in line to get paid before either Jones or Reaves, and he’ll get a bigger contract too. This season has been messy for both Bridges and the Nets, but he’s still a terrific player. For far less than the max, several teams have done way worse than Bridges. Even as his efficiency and defense has slipped just a bit, Bridges remains a great value. If the Nets improve the talent around him, Bridges will get back to being the two-way star we all loved a year ago.

10. Jarrett Allen – Cleveland Cavaliers

Three years, $60 million

Allen probably should have gotten more All-Star consideration. He’s one of the best defensive centers in the NBA, as he owns the paint and the glass. Allen is also a better offensive player than he usually gets credit for. He’s become a good passer and he’s one of the best play finishers in the league too. For $20 million per season, it’s hard to find many better values at the center position, or in the league period.

 

Keith SmithMarch 09, 2024

NBA transaction season is more or less complete. The trade deadline is more than a month behind us. The Playoff Eligibility Waiver Deadline (that’s a mouthful!) has also passed. There are a few veterans likely to catch on with teams, as players can be signed all the way through the last day of the regular season, which includes signing by playoff teams. (As long as a player was waived by March 1, he’s eligible to be on a playoff roster.)

Of course, we’ll have lots of 10-day contracts to come. And it’s possible a two-way player or two might still be converted/signed to a standard deal, even if the deadline to sign a replacement two-way player has also passed.

But there’s another form of signing that can happen all the way through June 30.

There are 31 players around the NBA that are still eligible to sign veteran extensions. In order to be eligible to extend in this league year, through June 30, a player has to be on an ending contract (either straight expiring or with an option that can be declined for next season).

That removes stars like Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo. They’ll have to wait until the summer to talk extensions, with Tatum, Fox and Adebayo potentially looking at Designated Players deals. Tatum has already qualified and Fox and Adebayo, if they were to make All-NBA. Mitchell is ineligible for the so-called super max extension, as he was traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers. (Players have to be traded while still on their rookie scale contract to be eligible to sign a Designated Player extension or contract.)

There are also several other potential extension candidates who will have to wait until the summer to reach an agreement. This list includes players like Brandon Ingram, Lauri Markkanen Derrick White. Because they all have contracts (without options) that extend into 2024-25, they’ll have to wait until the summer to start extension talks.

However, of the remaining 31 extension-eligible players, there are several interesting situations to monitor. Let’s dive in!

Atlanta Hawks

No extension-eligible players

Boston Celtics

Jrue Holiday (extend-and-trade limited until April 1, if he declines his 2024-25 player option)

Holiday has already hinted that Boston feels like home for him and his family. The Celtics didn’t pay a steep price to acquire Holiday to let him walk. Yes, Boston has an expensive roster already and those bills will only grow when Jayson Tatum signs his super max extension and when Derrick White is extended.

But the Celtics are going to take care of Holiday. Look for Holiday to sign a long-term deal (he can add up to four new years on April 1 if he declines his option), but at a lower number than the $39.4 million he’s set to carry for next season. Think something in the range of $120 million over four years in new money and years. Boston might even frontload the deal, to lessen the cap/tax hit in the later years.

Xavier Tillman Sr. (extend-and-trade limited)

Tillman is unlikely to extend with the Celtics. As he was acquired at the trade deadline, Tillman can only add two new years at 5% raises. That’s not enough for him to forgo a chance at unrestricted free agency.

Brooklyn Nets

No extension-eligible players

Charlotte Hornets

Davis Bertans (extend-and-trade limited, if he declines his 2024-25 player option)

Bertans has played, and played well, for Charlotte. He’s shown he’s still got some game left in him. But the Hornets aren’t likely to be interested in extending Bertans.

J.T. Thor (“Dinwiddie Extension” candidate, if team declines his 2024-25 option)

Last season, it looked like Thor was developing into a potential rotation guy. However, he hasn’t improved enough for the Hornets to consider an extension as this point.

Chicago Bulls

Lonzo Ball (if he declines his 2024-25 player option)

There’s no chance Ball declines his $21.4 million option for next season. And there’s even less of a chance the Bulls extend him if he does.

DeMar DeRozan

 Both DeRozan and the Bulls have said they have interest in an extension. There aren’t a lot of signs of DeRozan slowing down either. He’s not exactly the same player he was, but he’s adapted his game enough to cover for anything he’s lost. This one might end up getting shelved until after the postseason, but Chicago seems like they want to keep DeRozan in the fold. Bet on something getting inked before DeRozan hits free agency in July.

Cleveland Cavaliers

No extension-eligible players

Dallas Mavericks

No extension-eligible players

Denver Nuggets

No extension-eligible players

Detroit Pistons

Evan Fournier (if team declines his 2024-25 option)

No extension is happening here. The real question: Will Detroit pick up Fournier’s option for next season? $19 million is a good chunk of cap space to punt, but if the Pistons feel like they won’t need it in free agency, they could pick up Fournier’s option. He’s been playing rotation minutes off the bench, and he’d be $19 million in expiring and tradable salary through the 2025 trade deadline.

Golden State Warriors

Klay Thompson

Outside of Jrue Holiday and DeMar DeRozan, Thompson is arguably the most fascinating player on this list. He’s played better since the Warriors moved him to the bench. Thompson seems to have embraced that role too.

Now, how much is he willing to sacrifice salary-wise to stay with the only franchise he’s ever know? Golden State can’t bring Thompson back for anything near the $43.2 million he’s making this year. Not with their stated goals of reducing their overall salary/tax commitments moving forward. Look for both sides to eventually find middle ground on a new deal sooner or later.

Houston Rockets

No extension-eligible players

Indiana Pacers

Doug McDermott (extend-and-trade limited)

McDermott could add two years and about $29.6 million via an extension. That’s too rich for a backup shooting forward. But could the Pacers, who prefer to keep their own acquired players when they can, find agreement with McDermott on something in the two-year, $20 million range? That’s certainly possible.

Pascal Siakam (extend-and-trade limited)

The Pacers can “only” offer Siakam an extension of two years and $81.6 million. That’s a lot of per-year money for Siakam, but he’s not going to go for that. Not when at least a four-year, $181.9 million contract could be on the table in free agency. Maybe Siakam won’t max out, but he’ll get more in total money (from Indiana or another team) by waiting until he’s a free agent in July.

LA Clippers

Brandon Boston Jr. (“Dinwiddie Extension” candidate)

Boston hasn’t shown enough in limited minutes for the Clippers to warrant an extension.

Paul George (if he declines his 2024-25 player option)

Many thought an extension for George was fait accompli after Kawhi Leonard extended. It hasn’t happened just yet, but it still seems like a good bet to get done. One potential challenge? Leonard took less than he could have, both in years and money. Is George willing to leave anything on the table?

Los Angeles Lakers

No extension-eligible players

Memphis Grizzlies

Luke Kennard (if the team declines his 2024-25 option)

Memphis has been aggressive in extending their own players. But Kennard is in a different place. He’s not necessarily a core rotation player for the Grizzlies moving forward. And this roster has gotten very expensive. A bigger thing to watch is if Memphis even picks up Kennard’s $14.8 million option for next season. If someone has to go to cut costs, he’s the easiest choice.

Miami Heat

No extension-eligible players

Milwaukee Bucks

No extension-eligible players

Minnesota Timberwolves

Jordan McLaughlin

An extension for McLaughlin seems unlikely. Despite showing flashes at various points during his Wolves tenure, McLaughlin has never fully grabbed the backup point guard role.

Monte Morris (extend-and-trade limited)

Even though Morris is limited to extending for two years and $21.1 million, that could be enough. Minnesota has a mounting payroll that is going to see them in uncharted territory with the luxury tax. That could put a pause on extending Morris to backup the recently-extended Mike Conley. But there is something to be said for locking in players on fair-value deals. Two-years, $21.1 million would be under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount for Morris. Keep an eye on this one.

New Orleans Pelicans

Naji Marshall (“Dinwiddie Extension” candidate)

We saved explaining the idea of what we call the “Dinwiddie Extension” for Marshall, because he’s actual candidate to sign it. In Marshall’s case, because he’s coming off a minimum deal, he’s eligible to sign a different form of veteran extension.

Instead of being confined to a percentage of his previous salary, Marshall could extend for up to four years, with the first-year salary and subsequent 8% raises being based off the league’s average salary. In Marshall’s case, he could extend for a deal that would pay him up to $75 million over four years. That’s too rich for a bench wing, especially given New Orleans long-term salary commitments already. But something like $25 million over three years (a bit more than Miles McBride got from the New York Knicks) could make sense for both Marshall and the Pelicans.

Jonas Valanciunas

Before the season even started, Valanciunas said he wanted to sign an extension with New Orleans. He’ll turn 32 years old soon, but Valanciunas has turned in another productive, efficient season. The Pelicans don’t have anyone in the fold to replace Valanciunas. As it stands, he’ll be the best available center in free agency.

New Orleans is carrying $150 million in salary already for next season, but they should try to get something done with Valanciunas. They’ve got enough clearance under the tax line to sign him to a short-term extension. Something like $30-32 million over two years feels like a fair deal for both sides.

New York Knicks

OG Anunoby (extend-and-trade limited until June 30, if he declines his 2024-25 player option) 

Anunoby is a fascinating case, because of a number of reasons. First is timing. Anunoby is limited to signing a two-year, $40.1 million extension right now. (Note: any extension for Anunoby means he’s declining his $19.9 million player option for 2024-25). That’s not enough. But because the Knicks traded for him on December 30, they can just squeeze in a bigger extension on June 30, right before the start of free agency.

This one might end up one those announcements by a reporter where we aren’t sure if the player and team are extending or if we’re talking about a new contract. This is similar to the extensions signed by Harrison Barnes and Nikola Vucevic last year, right before free agency opened up hours later. Either way, Anunoby is staying with the Knicks, whether it’s an extension or a new contract.

Alec Burks (extend-and-trade limited) 

Unlike Anunoby, Burks was acquired too late to squeeze in a big extension before the start of free agency. He’s limited to two years and $22.6 million in an extension. That’s not bad value for Burks, but it’s unlikely the Knicks are going to make that kind of commitment without the second season either being partial or non-guaranteed, or a team option.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Gordon Hayward (extend-and-trade limited)

Hayward and the Thunder aren’t likely to sign an extension. He’d have to sign something so team-friendly, that it probably doesn’t make sense for him to do that. And Hayward hasn’t shown enough yet for Oklahoma City to commit salary and a roster spot to him. It’s more likely that Hayward will head to free agency, and the Thunder will have around $30 million in cap space to play with this summer.

Orlando Magic

Markelle Fultz

It’s been a journey for Fultz and the Magic. Orlando gave him a three-year, $50 million extension in 2021 based mostly on potential. In the three years since, Fultz has played in 105 games and hasn’t improved enough to get another extension. The Magic also have younger guards that they are committed to now. The real question is if Fultz will be back in Orlando at all next season.

Philadelphia 76ers

Tobias Harris

This is the part where Sixers fans get the cold sweats and start to rock back and forth nervously. Harris has been a fine player on his current deal. But he’s been paid a lot more than a just fine player. Given Philadelphia’s public pronouncements about big plans with their 2024 cap space, there’s no chance Harris is extended.

Buddy Hield (extend-and-trade limited)

Hield could sign a two-year, $42.7 million extension right now. Hield and the Sixers could even put in the same bonus structures, that could push him up to $47.6 million in total money over the same two seasons. But, like Harris, the allure of 2024 cap space makes it unlikely Hield will extend at all.

K.J. Martin (extend-and-trade limited until May 1, then “Dinwiddie Extension” candidate)

Martin hasn’t had the breakout season that we thought might eventually come. And, say it with me, the Sixers cap space plans mean no extension is getting done here.

DeAnthony Melton

Melton is in an interesting spot. He’s got a $15.2 million cap hold for next summer. To this point, we’ve continued to factor his cap hold into the 76ers 2024 cap space projections. However, recent back issues have kept Melton on the shelf for several games. If Philly wants him, they could extend him for less than his cap hold, and actually increase their cap space. But it’s now looking more like the 76ers will renounce Melton to maximize their cap space. That obviously means that there’s no extension coming.

Phoenix Suns

Grayson Allen (“Dinwiddie Extension” candidate)

Allen has been great for the Suns. He’s leading the NBA at 47.5% shooting from behind the arc. He’s held up defensively and he’s been a nice additional ball-mover and playmaker for Phoenix. There are two factors in extending Allen at play. First, he’s a good player who the Suns would like to keep in the fold. Second, extending him now would make his deal a really nice piece of salary-matching in any future trades.

Because he makes less than the average salary, Allen is eligible for what we call the “Dinwiddie Extension”. That’s up to four years and $75 million. That’s probably a bit rich, but is $48-$60 million and a $12-15 million AAV out of bounds for Allen and the Suns? That feels good for both sides.

Royce O’Neale (extend-and-trade limited)

O’Neale has given Phoenix exactly what they hoped for as a 3&D wing. Sure, it’s a limited sample with the Suns, but this is who O’Neale is. He’s eligible to sign for two years and $20.5 million. That feels just about right for both O’Neale and Phoenix.

Portland Trail Blazers

No extension-eligible players

Sacramento Kings

No extension-eligible players

San Antonio Spurs

Cedi Osman (“Dinwiddie Extension” candidate)

Osman could get the “Dinwiddie Extension” of up to $75 million over four years. That’s obviously not going to happen. In fact, it’s unlikely Osman and the Spurs will extend his deal at all. He’s been pretty good in a limited role in San Antonio, but look for the Spurs to continue to put a priority on developing their younger wings over keeping Osman in the fold.

Toronto Raptors

Gary Trent Jr.

The Raptors are in transition. They traded away both Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, which seemed to set the team on a path to having cap space this summer and rebuilding to an extent. But Toronto extended Kelly Olynyk recently, which kind of countered that. If the Raptors can find a fair value for Trent ($60 million over four years?), they might keep him in the fold long-term. If that’s not workable, Toronto has acquired enough other wings that letting Trent walk could be in the cards.

Utah Jazz

Talen Horton-Tucker (“Dinwiddie Extension” candidate)

The Jazz aren’t going to extend Horton-Tucker. They are likely to renounce him this summer to maximize their cap space. And they can’t do it right now, but effective July 1, look for Utah to use a large chunk of that cap space to renegotiate-and-extend Lauri Markkanen.

Washington Wizards

Richaun Holmes (if he declines his 2024-25 player option)

Holmes isn’t going to give up a guaranteed $12.9 million for next season, unless he can recoup that much and more on a long-term extension. The Wizards aren’t in a place where that makes sense. No extension will get done here.

Keith SmithFebruary 27, 2024

The NBA is an ecosystem. There are good teams, there are bad teams and there are teams just sort of hanging around the middle. It’s a world of predators, prey and those content to live life uneaten.

Sometimes the prey grows large enough that they become the predators. Sometimes the predators weaken enough that the prey picks them apart until there’s only scraps left as a reminder of their former dominance.

For most of their existence, despite their predatory namesakes, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been prey vs predators.

It took until their eighth year of existence to make the playoffs. Led by the snarling ferocity of Kevin Garnett, the Timberwolves became a playoff mainstay. Unfortunately, all but one of those years were one-and-done appearances. In 2004, that changed and Minnesota made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals. Those Wolves pushed the Los Angeles Lakers hard in a six-game series.

Then, just like that, the predator became the prey again.

Minnesota slipped a bit in 2004-05, then they fell off the cliff. That fall saw a baker’s dozen worth of years without even really sniffing the playoffs. A few years into the drought, Garnett was traded to the Boston Celtics and the Wolves were left at the bottom of the NBA.

Sure, there was the blip in 2018, when the team snapped the playoff drought. Then everything got weird with Jimmy Butler and Minnesota was back to the dregs again.

That 2004 team is revered in Timberwolves history because of what it meant to Minnesota basketball fans. They finally broke through with Garnett and the best team in history. The Wolves were right there.

And then they weren’t. And they’ve never been close again.

2004 is also an interesting landmark in Timberwolves history for another reason. That season was the last time Minnesota paid a significant luxury tax bill.

According to NBA cap and roster expert Mark Deeks, the Wolves have paid the luxury tax four times. Twice, in 2007 and 2020, it was such a minor amount that it was probably a mistake for the team to not dodge the tax line.

In 2003, as the team was building towards the peak of the Garnett era, the Wolves paid $6 million tax bill. The next year, that ballooned to $17.6 million.

And that was the last time Minnesota went more than $1 million into the tax. In total, the Wolves have paid just over $25 million in luxury taxes in their 35-year history. That ranks around the lower-third of the NBA.

Barring some major moves, that’s about to change in a major way.

The Timberwolves are on pace to equal the 2004 team’s franchise record of 58 wins. They’ve been one of the best teams in the Western Conference all season long. They currently posses the NBA’s best defense and the offense is just good enough. Minnesota has a good mix of ascending superstars, establish All-Stars and win-now veterans.

The Wolves have what it takes to be a consistent contender for the first time in franchise history…assuming they’re willing to pay for it.

Everyone knows the Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers, Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics are wildly expensive. Most know the Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets have invested heavily into title contenders. It’s no surprise to see NBA luxury teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat climbing up the ranks of potential tax teams.

But the Timberwolves? The team that has been somewhere between terrible and irrelevant for most of their 35 years?

Yup. This is where the Wolves live now. It’s a nice place, but you gotta pay to live here.

At the start of the 2024-25 season, the Minnesota Timberwolves have the following fully guaranteed salaries on their books:

$183.7 million for nine players. That’s five players short of the minimum that NBA teams must carry. Let’s fill out the Wolves roster with five minimum salary players for now. That brings the total to a projected $189.5 million.

The NBA’s luxury tax line for 2024-25 is currently projected to be $171.3 million. Even without filling out the roster, Minnesota has blown way past that line.

The first apron for 2024-25 is currently projected to be $178.6 million. The second apron projects to be $189.5 million.

Bam. There it is.

If we remove key vets like Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris (both are unrestricted free agents this summer) and replace them with minimum salary players, the Wolves are already right at the second apron.

What if Minnesota makes a deep playoff run and brings Anderson and Morris back? (It’s worth noting that the Wolves don’t have younger in-house options ready to take the roles Anderson and Morris play.) Let’s plug them in $10 million each, which is a tick above where each is now salary-wise. But that’s less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE and it’s a fair value for both players. That, plus the corresponding (and optimistic!) three minimum salary players, brings the Timberwolves salary to a projected $207.2 million.

Let that sink in for a moment…$207-plus million.

That’s more expensive than this season’s Warriors or Clippers.

The Minnesota Timberwolves as the most expensive roster team in the NBA? Seems unfathomable, right?

Again: this is where the Wolves live now.

Now…let’s extrapolate things further, shall we?

Anthony Edwards is having the best season of his career. He was a second-time All-Star this season and his team is atop the Western Conference. There’s a great chance that’s going to come with All-NBA honors, and deservedly so.

If Edwards makes All-NBA, his 25% of the cap max extension will tick up to a 30% of the cap max extension. That changes his first-year salary from a projected $35,250,000 to $42,300,000. If we leave in the estimates of $10 million for each of Anderson and Morris and bump Edwards up, the Wolves salary lands at $214.2 million.

Whew boy… And it doesn’t end there! That’s just the team salary. We haven’t even gotten into the tax penalties yet.

Let’s really start spending Marc Lore’s and Alex Rodriguez’s money!

There are three basic scenarios here:

  • Scenario 1: Team as is, no max bump for Anthony Edwards, filling out with five minimum deals
  • Scenario 2: Team as is, no max bump for Anthony Edwards, $10 million each for Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris
  • Scenario 3: Team as is, max bump for Anthony Edwards, $10 million each for Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris

(Yes, there are countless other scenarios we could run, but we’re going to stick with these three for instructional purposes.)

Here’s where everything lays out in each scenario:

  • Scenario 1: Team Salary of $189.5 million, Tax Bill of $38.6 million, Total Cost of $228.1 million
  • Scenario 2: Team Salary of $207.2 million, Tax Bill of $111.5 million, Total Cost of $318.7 million
  • Scenario 3: Team salary of $214.2 million, Tax Bill of $149.4 million, Total Cost of $363.6 million

The saving grace for Minnesota in each scenario? They are a first-time tax team. So, no repeater penalties here…yet.

For reference, this season, the Golden State Warriors are facing a total bill of salaries plus tax penalties of $382.4 million. The LA Clippers are looking at $342.4 million in total. If we go further down, the Phoenix Suns, Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets are all around the $200 to $250 million mark in total. Next season’s Timberwolves project to fall somewhere in that grouping.

The one thing those teams have in common beyond massive financial commitments? They are title contenders, outside of the Warriors, who are still paying the piper from nearly a decade of title contention.

Which begs the question: Can you win a title in the NBA without paying the tax?

The NBA’s luxury tax system went into place with the 2001-02 season. That season and in 2004-05, there were no tax penalties levied due to inefficient Basketball Related Income (BRI). That means that as of the last full season, we’ve had 20 years where the luxury tax system (in all its different forms) has been in place.

In those 20 years, 15 NBA champions have paid the tax. The lone exceptions:

  • 2006 Miami Heat
  • 2014 San Antonio Spurs
  • 2015 Golden State Warriors
  • 2017 Golden State Warriors
  • 2020 Los Angeles Lakers

That’s it. Five teams in 20 seasons. But what about contending for a title and making it to the NBA Finals?

Over that same 20-season sample, 27 of the 40 NBA Finals teams have paid the tax. In fact, every NBA Finals matchup during the luxury tax years has featured at least one team that paid the tax that season.

That leaves us with 75% of all NBA champions who have paid the tax (15 out of 20) and 67.5% of all NBA Finals teams who have paid the tax (27 out of 40).

So, back to our question: Can you win the title in the NBA without paying the tax?

You can, but it’s very difficult to do. It’s difficult to even get to the NBA’s biggest stage without paying the tax.

And that brings us back to the Minnesota Timberwolves and the sustainability of this current team.

As we’ve laid out, the Wolves are going to be somewhere between expensive and extraordinarily expensive next season. But Minnesota is also a title contender, or they at least look the part.

Maybe this year’s Timberwolves will break through and join that exclusive club to win a title or make the NBA Finals without paying the tax. But if they do, they won’t have that status for long. The math just doesn’t support Minnesota not being a tax team next season, barring something unexpected.

And therein lies the rub.

The Wolves have a new ownership group. And it’s one that needed an extension and additional partners to push their purchase of the team over the finish line. That new ownership group is also pushing for a new arena for the team. And, as we all know, new arena’s need public support to get built.

This isn’t Steve Ballmer buying the LA Clippers. Ballmer bought the Clippers, immediately committed to spending exorbitant sums of money to field a contender and then ponying up considerable sums to build his own new arena. This is a smaller market team with new owners walking into an expensive roster and a potential new arena battle.

However, to their credit, the Timberwolves seem committed to winning in ways we haven’t seen from the franchise before. Even with a looming extension for Karl-Anthony Towns already in place, Minnesota traded for Rudy Gobert and extended deals for Naz Reid, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley. That’s putting your money where you mouth is when it comes to winning.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are here now. They’re in rarified air as a franchise. Never has Minnesota been this well setup for long-term success as they are now. The Timberwolves failed to properly capitalize on the Kevin Garnett era, resulting in just that one beloved run in 2004. This current team will need to win, and win at a high level, to stay together. Otherwise, all the questions about being too expensive will start. That’s usually followed by roster changes, which often see a team take a step backwards. And that window before the questions start is a lot smaller than anyone ever thinks it is.

Wolves are an apex predator. They’ll have to pay to stay here, but it’s long past time for the NBA’s Wolves to stop being prey and to take their place as predators.

Keith SmithFebruary 15, 2024

NBA transaction season has just about wrapped up. There will be a handful more waivers, signings and probably even some contract extensions, but the big stuff is done. The focuses for teams become split after the trade deadline and the All-Star Break.

For the players and coaches, they focus on building towards the postseason. For teams that are out of the running for postseason spots, they pivot toward development.

For front offices, part of the focus goes towards the 2024 NBA Draft. There’s a lot of scouting to be done, both on the college and international levels. The other part starts preparing for the offseason. Who will have cap space, who will have only the MLE, who might be a second apron team and who becomes available because of all the above?

That means it’s time to take an updated look at where each of the NBA’s 30 teams project to land as far as spending power for the 2024 offseason. Of course, these projections will change as teams sign extensions, make two-way conversions and potentially sign and waive players. However, it’s good to take an updated look at where teams stand today.

A few notes:

  • We are using the NBA’s official projections for the salary cap and tax lines. Some are projecting greater growth than the 3.5% represented here, but we will always use the official projections from the league.
    • Salary Cap of $141,000,000
    • Luxury Tax of $171,315,000
    • First Apron of $178,655,000
    • Second Apron of $189,485,000
  • Max salary tiers grow with the cap. They are as follows:
    • 0-6 Years of Service: $35,250,000
    • 7-9 Years of Service: $42,300,000
    • 10+ Years of Service: $49,350,000
  • A projection has been made on all 2024-25 player and team options. Similarly, a projection was made on all partial and non-guaranteed contracts. And, finally, a projection made on renouncing free agents has also been made for cap space teams.
  • 2024 NBA Draft picks were based on ESPN’s BPI forecast for expected final record. All conditions on picks owned and owed were then reflected to determine the draft order and the subsequent cap holds.
  • No trades, extensions or signings have been projected. Essentially, rosters are as they stand at the time of publication.
  • With the advent of the new CBA, the landscape has changed around the NBA. There used to be three basic categories of teams each summer: Cap Space teams, Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams. Each season there would also be a handful of “swing” teams that could fall in one bucket or another.

In this new world, we have a fourth category: Second Apron teams. These are the NBA’s most expensive teams that the new CBA was largely designed to punish.

Under the new CBA, if you are at or over the second apron, you lose access to the Taxpayer MLE. In addition, the trade rules tighten up for these teams. Salary-matching in trades is limited to 100%, they aren’t allowed to aggregate salaries together in trades, they can’t participate in sign-and-trade deals, and they won’t be able to use TPEs.

Essentially, Second Apron teams are going to limited to making 1-for-1 trades where they take back the same money as they send out (or less), signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum salaries.

With all that said, here is the updated projected spending power for each NBA team in 2024 free agency!

Cap Space Teams (5)

  1. Detroit Pistons: $61.3 million
  2. Orlando Magic: $45.1 million
  3. Utah Jazz: $42.7 million
  4. Philadelphia 76ers: $42.4 million
  5. Toronto Raptors: $41.5 million

This is the smallest group of teams we can confidently project to have cap space in a decade of doing this exercise. As more and more teams prioritize extensions and trades, cap space (and the number of impact free agents) has dried up. Still, as we write every time we talk about cap space, having this kind of room doesn’t just mean signing free agents. Cap space can also be used to facilitate trades, either for yourself or others.

The Pistons jumped up to the top of the list after a series of moves where they shed some long-term money to create even more cap flexibility. As it stands now, the only non-Rookie Scale player Detroit projects to have on their roster is Isaiah Stewart, who is starting a four-year, $60 million Rookie Scale extension. Simone Fontecchio will probably get a qualifying offer, as the third-year NBA player is the closest thing this roster has in terms of age and experience. That makes for yet another year of massive amounts of cap space for Troy Weaver to work with.

Orlando comes in second in projections by virtue of having a roster full of players on rookie scale contracts and team-friendly deals. This includes all of the Magic’s best players. In the recent past, Orlando has eschewed cap space to re-sign or extend their own players. That seems poised to change, as the Magic are finally in position to really push the rebuild forward with an impact addition or two. And they need to do that before they have to start extending players like Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero in coming years. In order to create meaningful space, Orlando will have to move on from one, or both, of Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac. Both players have been extremely injury prone during their Magic tenure. One thing to keep an eye on: Orlando could let both go for cap space (renouncing Fultz and waiving Isaac), then bring them back on new deals at lower numbers, but with additional years added on.

Utah made some moves to clear out a little long-term salary, or at least salary questions, at the deadline. That sees the Jazz set up to have nearly $43 million in cap space. A large chunk of that will probably be reserved to do a renegotiation-and-extension with Lauri Markkanen. But Utah should still have a nice amount left over after to do some more work with.

The Sixers have been bandied about as having double-max cap space and the like for months now. For a while, that seemed extremely unlikely. It’s still not really a thing, but they can get close. There’s a world where the only salary commitments Philadelphia has on the books are Joel Embiid at $51.4 million and Tyrese Maxey’s cap hold at $13 million. That would see the Sixers able to create nearly $65 million in space. That’s still not double-max cap space, but it’s really, really close. We’re going to stay a bit more conservative and project the 76ers to keep a few other guys and land just north $42 million in space.

No team changed their cap space outlook more than Toronto did. They moved on from Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby as their big deals. But the Raptors shed some salary into next year and beyond in other moves too. This projection accounts for declining Bruce Brown’s team option, which would give Masai Ujiri and staff the most flexibility they’ve had in ages. If Brown’s option is picked up, Toronto will probably operate as over the cap team. But they’ve got a lot of wings now. Look for them to take the cap space route.

Cap Space – Non-Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (3)

This is an interesting mix of two rebuilding teams and a team that is in contention right now. That’s not generally where we typically find a potential cap space team, but the Thunder are anything but typical.

  1. Charlotte Hornets
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder
  3. San Antonio Spurs

Charlotte is in a bit of a weird spot. For another season, the Miles Bridges question hangs over this team. He signed the qualifying offer, so Bridges will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Signs point toward Bridges and the Hornets wanting to sign a new contract. If that happens, they’ll likely operate as an over-the-cap team. If Charlotte moves on from some players, including Bridges, they can create about $28.6 million in cap space.

The Thunder finally went under the cap last offseason. They used that space to act as a clearing house for some contracts, in exchange for even more draft picks. This summer should go differently. Oklahoma City could create in the range of $30 million in cap space. That means renouncing both Gordon Hayward and Aleksej Pokusevski, which isn’t out of the question. Hayward could be re-signed to a much lower salary than he currently makes, and leave the Thunder with some space to add another player. A lot will likely depend on how this playoff run goes for OKC and Hayward.

Victor Wembanyama and the other young Spurs keep developing so rapidly, that their cap space projection has changed. The San Antonio no longer projects to have the first or second overall pick in the draft. On the flip side, the Spurs do look more likely to pick up the Raptors first-round pick though. So, a projection of around $20.7 million in cap space feels pretty safe. If Toronto keeps, their pick, San Antonio will bump up closer to $26.4 million in cap space. Either way, it’s enough to add to a fun, young roster.

Non-Taxpayer MLE Teams (6)

This is usually the largest group of teams we have, and it may well still end up that way. But for now, we can confidently project only six teams to be in range of using the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

  1. Brooklyn Nets
  2. Houston Rockets
  3. Indiana Pacers
  4. New York Knicks
  5. Sacramento Kings
  6. Washington Wizards

All four of these teams have two things in common: They look to have only handful of roster spots to fill and they have plenty of clearance under the first apron. That puts all of these teams in range to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE without tripping into any hard cap issues.

In addition, unlike the swing teams, there isn’t a reasonable path to cap space for any of these teams. Indiana would be the closest, but they’d be punting on some valuable players to create cap space. That seems highly unlikely. Houston and Washington could have been swing Cap Space-Non-Taxpayer teams, but both took on money for next season in trades that has them likely to stay over the cap.

Non-Taxpayer MLE – Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (3)

This group is close to tripping into the luxury tax, or even over the first apron. Most of that is related to pending free agents that these teams could re-sign. And for a handful, they are close enough to the first apron, that the hard cap would become an issue if they used the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

  1. Chicago Bulls
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers
  3. New Orleans Pelicans

The Bulls, Cavaliers and Pelicans are all going to have free agent decisions to make. If they re-sign, or extend, those players to expected-value contracts, they’ll be butting up against the tax or even the first apron. That will take them out of range of using the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The lone exception here is if Chicago were to lose DeMar DeRozan. If that happened, the Bulls would have more than enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. That situation could resolve itself early, however, if DeRozan and the Bulls can reach an agreement on an extension.

Taxpayer MLE Teams (4)

The addition of the second apron has created a smaller-than-usual window for teams to be in position to use the Taxpayer MLE, but without creating issues against the second apron hard cap.

  1. Atlanta Hawks
  2. Dallas Mavericks
  3. Miami Heat
  4. Portland Trail Blazers

The Hawks are in a tricky spot. As it stands, they have a pretty small window to work within. And that’s before re-signing Saddiq Bey. But Atlanta also seems pretty likely to move off some long-term this summer. That could free up some much-needed flexibility. But dancing around the tax and the first apron is still pretty likely too.

The Mavericks project to be around $9 million under the second apron, but they also only have a few roster spots to fill. That leaves enough room to use the Taxpayer MLE to add a player, with enough wiggle room to stay under the hard cap that would be created at the second apron.

It might be a surprise to see the rebuilding Trail Blazers in this spot, but they took on a good amount of salary in the Damian Lillard trade, and the subsequent Jrue Holiday trade. Portland also re-signed Jerami Grant to a big contract too. And, somewhat surprisingly, the Blazers didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline. As it stands, Portland sits just over the luxury tax line. That won’t be a thing for long, as a rebuilding team can’t pay the tax. But it will limit what kind of spending power Portland has this summer. Instead of free agent signings, look for the Trail Blazers to keep retooling their roster through trades.

Second Apron Teams (9)

This is our largest group of teams for 2024 offseason projections. This is a direct result of two things. First, the second apron exists now, and some teams are over or up against it. Second, several teams took the “gap year” (or maybe better put the “get your books in order year”) to load up. That’s got us in a spot where roughly one-third of the league will be unable to add a free agent for more than the minimum this summer.

  1. Boston Celtics
  2. Denver Nuggets
  3. Golden State Warriors
  4. LA Clippers
  5. Los Angeles Lakers
  6. Memphis Grizzlies
  7. Milwaukee Bucks
  8. Minnesota Timberwolves
  9. Phoenix Suns

All nine of these teams are already over or right up against the second apron. Or they will be once they re-sign some key free agents. From there, this group of nine will be limited to making 1-for-1 trades where they take in similar (but not more) money, signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum contracts.

Something to keep an eye on: If a team in this group underwhelms in the postseason, they could look to move a player or two to start the process of cleaning up their cap sheet. But most of these teams are contenders, or could be contenders with better health or a roster move or two. That’s going to keep most of them in a position to remain pretty expensive.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 10, 2024

The 2024 NBA trade deadline is at 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, February 8. That means teams are facing their last window to make significant upgrades to their roster. But there’s one more transaction window that comes after the trade deadline has come and gone.

The buyout market has become the trade deadline’s less glamorous cousin. The big moves are done at the deadline, but there are always a handful more deals to come through the end of February.

Following the February 8 trade deadline, the next big date to watch is March 1. Players waived after March 1 are not eligible to play in that season’s playoffs. Effectively, that’s the last day for players to get set free to catch on with playoff teams following the trade deadline.

The way this happens is that the player is waived by his current team. Upon clearing waivers, which the vast majority of players do, they become a free agent. In many of these cases, players and their former team will come to an agreement to buy out the remainder of their contract. This means the player gives back some portion of their guaranteed salary in order to become a free agent.

Sometimes these buyouts occur immediately on the heels of the trade deadline and the player clears waivers by the end of the weekend. For others, the buyout negotiations may run through the All-Star break and get completed before the end of the month. But in almost all cases, any significant buyouts will occur by March 1, to allow that player to remain playoff-eligible.

This season, there is a wrinkle to the buyout market. Under the new CBA, teams that are above the first tax apron are not eligible to sign any players whose previous salary was above the Non-Taxpayer MLE equivalent. For this season, that amount is $12,405,000. The following teams are currently above the first apron:

Below are some players to keep an on eye on for the 2024 buyout market. In most cases, these are veterans on an expiring contract. Some may have some salary that goes into next season. It’s rare for a deal running more than two seasons to be bought out, but it does occasionally happen.

In addition, most of these players are either out of their team’s rotation, or they are blocking minutes for a younger player to get into their team’s rotation. For some, their teams are expected to make other changes before the deadline, which will push them even further to the backend of the roster.

It’s also worth noting that every player listed here is also a possibility to be traded. We’re not going to repeat that point with each player listed. In some cases, they could be traded and then bought out. Mostly, this is a list of players who could take a buyout if they are still on a roster somewhere at the end of the day on trade deadline day of Thursday, February 8.

Lastly, just about every player on this list will be recognizable to even casual NBA fans. They’ve all played big roles at some point in their careers. However, for many of these players, we’re at the point in their careers where they are more name than game. No one listed here is overly likely to swing a playoff game, never mind a playoff series. Keep that in mind when dreaming about how your team could fill out their bench on the buyout market.

Davis Bertans (Oklahoma City Thunder, PF, 31 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $17 million in 2023-24, $5.25 million guaranteed in 2024-25

Bertans has seldom played as a part of the Thunder’s rotation this season. He’s essentially a three-point specialist now, but still a fairly good one. OKC has worked buyouts with veterans in the past, especially after exhausting the trade market for them. In Bertans’ case, exhausting the trade market could stretch into next summer as the Thunder could guarantee a larger portion of his contract to use him in an offseason deal.

UPDATE: Traded to the Hornets

Andre Drummond (Chicago Bulls, C, 30 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $3.4 million in 2023-24

Drummond has been having a very productive season for the Bulls. He’s one of the best backup centers in the NBA now. Chicago should be able to find a trade for him, if they desire. If they don’t, Drummond could agitate for buyout, because he could help a contender in a bigger role. But the Bulls are also apparently leaning into a postseason push via the Play-In Tournament. Don’t be surprised if Drummond finishes the year in Chicago as the Bulls backup center.

Evan Fournier (New York Knicks, SG/SF, 31 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $18.6 million in 2023-24, $19 million team option in 2024-25

Fournier isn’t a part of the Knicks rotation. He only sees minutes when the team is down several players on the wing. But his contract is a really nice piece of salary-matching in any potential trade. Don’t bet on a buyout for that reason. If New York doesn’t make a move using Fournier’s contract at the trade deadline, look for them to pick up his team option for next season. That will allow the Knicks to keep Fournier as a salary-matching piece in a deal over the summer and all the way through the 2025 trade deadline, if necessary.

UPDATE: Traded to the Pistons, unlikely to work a buyout

Danilo Gallinari (Detroit Pistons, PF/C, 35 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $6.8 million in 2023-24

Gallinari has flashed in moments since getting traded to Detroit in mid-January. He doesn’t have a real place on the Pistons though, as they’ve got younger players who need minutes. If Detroit can’t swing another trade for Gallinari, he’s a prime buyout candidate. The extra bonus? Gallo’s salary is under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount. That makes him free to join any team in the league for the stretch run.

UPDATE: Waived by the Pistons

Joe Harris (Detroit Pistons, SF/SG, 32 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $19.9 million in 2023-24

Harris hasn’t played much for the Pistons. He’s still a pretty good shooter though and teams are always looking for shooting. The challenge is that Harris makes too much to join any of the apron teams. But there are playoff teams where he could provide some shooting in a bench role. And Detroit clearly has no need for him, with younger players getting all the minutes in front of Harris.

UPDATE: Waived by the Pistons

Gordon Hayward (Charlotte Hornets, SF/SG, 33 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $31.5 million in 2023-24

Under the old CBA, Hayward would have been a prime buyout candidate. He’s a health-risk to be sure, but Hayward is very productive when he plays. He’s shooting well and still has a good all-around game. He’d be a great fit in the rotation for any title contender. But therein lies the rub. Some of the teams that Hayward could fit best on would be restricted from signing him, because he makes more than then Non-Taxpayer MLE. It’s also important to note that Hayward would lose his Bird Rights if he takes a buyout. Hayward might be able to land a contract from a team that starting in the $15-$18 million range via a sign-and-trade this summer. That means retaining his Bird Rights might be more valuable than catching on with a second-tier contender after a buyout.

UPDATE: Traded to the Thunder, unlikely to work a buyout

Jock Landale (Houston Rockets, C, 28 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $8 million per season through 2026-27 all non-guaranteed

Landale can be a productive player, but he hasn’t been a fit in Houston. Jeff Green has taken on the primary backup center role in the minimal minutes behind Alperen Sengun. That makes Landale available. If the Rockets don’t put Landale into a trade, he could get a jump on finding his next team by taking a buyout. Houston could also guarantee his deal for next season, and continue to look at him as tradable salary too. Call this one 50-50 at best.

Kyle Lowry (Charlotte Hornets, PG, 37 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $29.7 million in 2023-24

Lowry is the classic buyout guy on this list. So much so that the Hornets have all but acknowledged that’s what will happen, assuming they can’t re-trade the veteran point guard before Thursday’s deadline. Lowry makes too much to join any of the apron teams, but none of them have a really glaring need for a point guard anyway. Look for Lowry to get set free and to join one of the second-tier contenders that can use a veteran backup lead guard.

Doug McDermott (San Antonio Spurs, SF/PF, 32 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $13.7 million in 2023-24

This one is kind of tough. McDermott plays regular minutes for the Spurs. He’s not really blocking any younger players. He’s also still really productive as a shooter (44.1% on 3.8 3PA per game). San Antonio is exploring the trade market for McDermott, but hasn’t found a deal just yet. If they can’t, the Spurs may do the veteran a solid by cutting him free. However, McDermott makes just above the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount, which limits his potential post-buyout teams. That could complicate things a bit.

UPDATE: Traded to the Pacers, unlikely to work a buyout

Patty Mills (Atlanta Hawks, PG, 35 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $6.8 million in 2023-24

Mills hasn’t played much for the Hawks. When he has, Mills has done ok. He’s not going to light anyone up, but Mills could be a nice third guard and someone you throw in a game when you need a scoring spark. His current deal is small enough that Mills could join any team in the league if he takes a buyout.

Monte Morris (Detroit Pistons, PG, 27 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $9.8 million in 2023-24

Morris is both too good and younger-than-usual to be on this list, but his circumstances find him here. He recently returned from a quad injury to start playing for the Pistons. It’s taking him a bit to find his rhythm, but Morris is one of the best available backup point guards on the trade market. If Detroit can’t find a deal they like, they could work a buyout to let Morris join a playoff team. He’s got a small enough salary that joining anyone is on the table. Look for the Pistons to try to find a trade first, however. And we’ve seen Detroit keep vets in curious situations before too.

UPDATE: Morris will not work a buyout after being traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves

Mike Muscala (Detroit Pistons, C, 32 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $3.5 million in 2023-24

Muscala has stepped in as the backup to Jalen Duren since Detroit acquired him in mid-January. The Pistons seem to like that he brings a stretch element to the floor, which their other centers don’t. That makes it far from a guarantee that Muscala gets a buyout. But if there are signs that a playoff team has a role for Muscala, he could push for a buyout.

Victor Oladipo (Memphis Grizzlies, SG, 31 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $9.5 million in 2023-24

This is the saddest story on this list. Oladipo has fully fallen into the point where he’s more “Victor Oladipo’s expiring contract” than he is a helpful basketball player. Oladipo is continuing his recovery from left patellar tendon surgery last year. There’s no sense that he’s close to playing. If the Grizzlies don’t re-trade Oladipo in a deal this week, they’ll likely waive him (probably without Oladipo giving back any money in a buyout) to open a roster spot.

UPDATE: Waived by the Grizzlies

Kelly Olynyk (Utah Jazz, PF/C, 32 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $12.2 million in 2023-24

Olynyk is highly unlikely to take a buyout, but his name comes up enough that we’re including him here. The reason that he’s not really a buyout candidate is that the Jazz should be able to find a trade for him assuming they want to move Olynyk at all. He’s been extremely productive as a backup frontcourt player for Utah this season. And the Jazz are in the mix for a postseason spot. If Utah doesn’t trade Olynyk for future assets, they’ll probably just keep him and figure out a potential sign-and-trade or re-signing this summer. One last thing to note: Olynyk’s salary is just enough below the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount that he could sign with anyone if he did work a buyout agreement.

UPDATE: Traded to the Raptors, unlikely to work a buyout

Cedi Osman (San Antonio Spurs, SF/SG, 28 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $6.7 million in 2023-24

Osman has had a pretty productive season for the Spurs as a reserve wing. The challenge? San Antonio has several other players who play the same position as Osman. If a trade doesn’t develop for the veteran wing, look for Osman to look for a buyout. His salary is low enough that he can catch on with any team. And several playoff teams will be looking for wing depth for their postseason push.

Philadelphia 76ers (Several veterans on expiring contracts)

It’s a little hard to peg where the Sixers are at. They could put a bunch of their expiring deals together in a trade to add help now. They could keep those players and let their deals expire to have a bunch of cap space this summer. A handful could be buyout candidates, but Philadelphia needs depth and versatility now that Joel Embiid is out for a while. We’re including the 76ers to acknowledge that something could happen here, but it’s far too nebulous to get into individual details.

Otto Porter Jr. (Toronto Raptors, PF/SF, 30 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $6.3 million in 2023-24

Porter was a surprising signing with Toronto in the summer of 2022, and it hasn’t gone well. Porter has rarely been healthy enough to have an impact for the Raptors. Now, he’s on an expiring deal on a team that is resetting their roster. Considering he’s played only 23 games in a season-plus in Toronto, it’s hard to know exactly where Porter is at. But he did play a key role in helping the Warriors in the 2022 NBA Finals. He’s the kind of guy contenders will take a chance on. He has the added benefit of having a low enough salary that he can sign with anyone, should he take a buyout.

UPDATE: Traded to the Jazz

P.J. Tucker (LA Clippers, PF/C, 38 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $11 million in 2023-24, $11.5 million player option in 2024-25

Tucker hasn’t played much since joining the Clippers in the James Harden trade in early-November. Normally, the second year of money would keep a guy like Tucker off this list. Look for LA to exhaust every possible trade option before Thursday’s deadline. As a second apron team, this is the Clippers last chance to take on additional money in trades, and last chance to aggregate salaries together in a deal. If Tucker isn’t traded before the deadline, it becomes an interesting conversation on what happens next, given the $11.5 million he’s owed for next year. But he’s made it clear he still wants to play, and there are contenders interested. And, just in case you haven’t figured it out by now, Tucker makes just under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount, so he’s free to sign with any team. Also, there’s a good chance Tucker is a post-trade buyout guy if he’s moved before the deadline to a non-playoff team.

Delon Wright (Washington Wizards, PG, 31 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $8.2 million in 2023-24

Wright missed a lot of time earlier this season due to injuries. But he’s healthy now and he could help a number of teams as a backup guard. He has a very reasonable salary, so the Wizards will explore trade options before even discussing a buyout. But Washington took care of Will Barton in a similar spot last season. They could do the same for Wright this year.

Thaddeus Young (Toronto Raptors, C/PF, 35 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $8 million in 2023-24

The Raptors started the process of resetting their roster when they traded OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. Those trades, and a subsequent minor injury to Jakob Poeltl, have actually opened up rotation minutes for Young. The veteran big man made the most of it with some solid play. If Toronto continues to prioritize long-term players, there’s a chance Young could take a buyout. At that point, he could join any playoff team to add some frontcourt depth.

UPDATE: Traded to the Nets, waived by the Nets

Spencer Dinwiddie (PG, 30 years old)

Dinwiddie was traded by the Brooklyn Nets to the Toronto Raptors and subsequently waived. The veteran lead guard hasn’t shot it well at all this season, but he’s already got suitors lining up to sign him. If a team needs some bench scoring and a guy who can also be a fill-in starter, Dinwiddie would be a nice pickup.

Killian Hayes (PG, 22 years old)

Hayes was cut loose by the Detroit Pistons when they needed to create roster spots in the deadline moves. He’s younger than the usual late-season addition, but Hayes has struggled in his NBA career. If a team has a good player development staff, and can afford to give Hayes minutes to figure things out, he’s a great “second draft” guy. Sometimes point guards take a while, and Hayes is worth taking a shot on.

Furkan Korkmaz (SG/SF, 26 years old)

The Indiana Pacers will reportedly waive Korkmaz after they acquired him in a three-team deadline deal with the Philadelphia 76ers and San Antonio Spurs. Korkmaz’s rep has always been that of a guy who can shoot and provide some scoring punch. He mostly delivered on that when he was a regular rotation guy for the Sixers. The last two years, Korkmaz has barely played. He’s worth taking a flyer on for a team that needs some bench production.

Robin Lopez (C, 35 years old)

We could be at the end of the line for Lopez. He hasn’t held a regular rotation role for the last three seasons. In limited opportunities, Lopez didn’t look very good this season. But if a team really needs a veteran center, Lopez is a great locker room guy to add for some bench depth.

Chimezie Metu (C, 26 years old)

After a few good years with the Sacramento Kings, Metu never quite found his footing with the Phoenix Suns. However, he can score and has a little range. Metu is also a decent rebounder too. He’ll catch on with a team looking to add to their frontcourt depth.

Marcus Morris Sr. (PF, 34 years old)

Morris will reportedly be waived by the San Antonio Spurs after they acquired him in a three-team deadline deal with the Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers. Morris was a productive rotation player for years for several teams. This season, he looked good in his opportunities with the Sixers. Morris can still score and he’s shooting 40% from deep this season. He’d make a nice addition for a team that needs some frontcourt scoring off their bench.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 10, 2024

The LA Clippers made their big trade early in the season when the acquired James Harden. That led to a quiet deadline, but LA made good use of the last time they’ll be able to “buy” a player using cash for a while.

Here are the particulars:

LA Clippers acquire: Draft Rights For Ismael Kamagate

Denver Nuggets acquire: Cash Considerations

Let’s dive in!

LA Clippers

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

Because they are likely to continue to be a second apron team for the foreseeable future, the LA Clippers days of using cash to “buy” a player were limited. LA made good use of that last chance to take a flyer on a big man prospect.

Ismael Kamagate was someone scouts were somewhat high on at the 2022 NBA Draft. When he ultimately landed with the Denver Nuggets, some even dreamed he could undergo a path similar to that of fellow second-round pick Nikola Jokic. Those dreams ended somewhat quickly.

Kamagate is big and athletic, but he’s stalled out a bit as a prospect. The 6-foot-11 Frenchman moved from France to Italy this season, and he hasn’t played quite as well.

In his last two years in France, Kamagate started in 60 of 88 games for Paris Basketball. The young center averaged 10.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks during that period. He showed off good athleticism and nice touch around the rim. Kamagate also flashed some impressive defensive ability too.

This season, Kamagate has largely come off the bench for two different teams in Italy. He played minimal minutes for Milan before being loaned to Tortona for the rest of the season. Kamagate has seen his playing time go up with Tortona, so there’s some hope he’ll get back on track as an NBA prospect.

For the Clippers, being a second apron team means they’ll largely have to build their roster through re-signing their own players (that work is under way with Kawhi Leonard extending, on-going extension talks for Paul George and every intention of re-signing James Harden this summer), the draft and minimum contracts. Adding a prospect like Kamagate gives LA something in reserve for down-the-line frontcourt depth.

Denver Nuggets

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

The Nuggets have selected several prospects in the last couple of drafts. Because of that, Denver was comfortable selling Kamagate’s draft rights to the Clippers.

Given Denver’s status as the reigning champs, and being a contender for years to come, they’re more likely to want a veteran backup in place for the minutes behind Nikola Jokic. That, combined with Kamagate’s recent inconsistent play, also likely factored into their willingness to move on from the young center.

Plus, adding a little cash to the ownership group’s pockets helps soften the blow of an impending luxury tax bill. But raising a banner makes that all worth it in Denver.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 10, 2024

The Golden State Warriors are facing nearly a half-billion bill this season when it comes to salaries, plus tax penalties. The Indiana Pacers had plenty of room under the tax line to space. In the end, Indiana lent a helping hand to help Golden State save a bunch of money.

Here are the particulars:

Golden State Warriors acquire: 2024 second-round pick

Indiana Pacers acquire: Cory Joseph, 2025 Hornets second-round pick, Cash Considerations

Let’s dive in!

Golden State Warriors

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: $2.0 million

  • Cory Joseph (PG, one year, $2.0 million)

This trade was all about saving money for the Warriors. Even though Joseph’s veteran minimum salary was for only for just over $2 million, Golden State saved over $13 million because of how deep they are into the luxury tax, as a tax repeater. Even if you offset what they paid Indiana to cover Joseph’s deal, that’s worth it.

And, for what it’s worth, the Warriors got a 2024 second-round draft pick in this deal, albeit a likely late one. Considering they’ll need to fill out their roster through the draft and minimum signings, assuming they stay a second apron team next year, that’s not nothing.

Indiana Pacers

Incoming salary: $2.0 million

  • Cory Joseph (PG, one year, $2.0 million)

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

Indiana got cash to cover eating Joseph’s contract. And they swapped a not-great 2024 second-round pick for what should be a pretty good 2025 second-round pick. Sometimes it pays to be a helpful partner in a trade.

The Pacers waived Cory Joseph after completing this trade.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 10, 2024

The Boston Celtics wanted to preserve an open roster spot and to save some money. The Portland Trail Blazers needed to fill out their roster. The two got together a small, but mutually beneficial trade.

Here are the particulars:

Boston Celtics acquire: future top-55 protected second-round pick

Philadelphia 76ers acquire: Dalano Banton, Cash Considerations

Let’s dive in!

Boston Celtics

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: $2.0 million

  • Dalano Banton (PG, two years, $4.2 million, team option in 2024-25, non-guaranteed if option is picked up)

This trade was all about saving money and creating a roster spot for the Celtics. The pick they’re getting from Portland isn’t likely to convey.

Portland Trail Blazers

Incoming salary: $2.0 million

  • Dalano Banton (PG, two years, $4.2 million, team option in 2024-25, non-guaranteed if option is picked up)

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

Portland had to fill a roster spot and did so with Banton. He’ll help a backcourt/wing group that has been hit with a lot of injuries. Banton has great size for his position and has played well in moments. He’s worth the Blazers taking a flyer on, since they were paid to do so.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 09, 2024

The Boston Celtics were determined to add a wing at the trade deadline. They hooked up with the Philadelphia 76ers in a somewhat rare trade between the division rivals. Boston added some depth, while Philadelphia cleared even more 2024 cap space.

Here are the particulars:

Boston Celtics acquire: Jaden Springer

Philadelphia 76ers acquire: 2024 second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Boston Celtics

Incoming salary: $2.2 million

  • Jaden Springer (SG, two years, $6.2 million, restricted free agent in 2025)

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

Pre-trade deadline, Brad Stevens said the Celtics were looking to add a wing. They did so by picking up Springer. While he’s unlikely to play a big role this season on an already-deep Boston team, Springer is a nice prospect moving forward.

Springer is a terrific athlete and a good defender. He’s shown some ability to create his own shot. The challenge is that shot doesn’t go in very often. If it did, Philadelphia probably wouldn’t have traded Springer.

If Springer can get his shot working, the Celtics will have another guard with some size. That was something they’ve been lacking. As it stands, Springer will inject some athleticism when he’s called upon to play.

One other added benefit for the Celtics is they added a little future tradable salary into next season. Boston didn’t have much tradable salary on the books, as anything significant belongs to key rotation players. This was also Boston’s last real chance to use their $6.2 million traded player exception. They made the most it by adding Springer for this season and next.

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: $2.2 million

  • Jaden Springer (SG, two years, $6.2 million, restricted free agent in 2025)

Philadelphia continues to maximize their cap space for the 2024 offseason. They got off an additional $4 million in salary by moving Springer in this deal. And they got a second-round pick in doing so. If that wasn’t enough, this trade helped the Sixers get out of the luxury tax for this season. That’s really good work.

This coming summer, Philadelphia projects to have somewhere between $42 and $63 million in cap space. If they clear the deck, the 76ers will be building around Joel Embiid and an eventually maxed-out Tyrese Maxey. That’s a lot to do, but Daryl Morey has his team set up to make a major splash this summer.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 09, 2024

One the stranger trades on deadline day came between two Eastern Conference contenders. The Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers swapped backup point guards, in a rare trade between two teams that competing to win the conference.

Here are the particulars:

Milwaukee Bucks acquire: Draft Rights to Dimitrios Agravanis

Sacramento Kings acquire: Robin Lopez, Cash Considerations

Let’s dive in!

Milwaukee Bucks

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

  • Robin Lopez (C, one year, $2.0 million)

The Bucks saved a fairly large chunk of change in this deal. Because they are deep into the luxury tax, Milwaukee ended up saving $8.6 million in this deal in terms of salary plus tax penalties.

Lopez wasn’t playing much, and he looks as if he’s coming to the end of the line in his career. The Bucks opened up a roster spot in this trade, which could go to a more helpful player for the rest of this season.

Agravanis is unlikely to ever come over to the NBA. He’s a 29-year-old, 6-foot-10 power forward from Greece. Agravanis is currently playing for AEK Athens. This season, he’s appeared in only seven games. The days of Agravanis being an NBA prospect are probably behind him.

Sacramento Kings

Incoming salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

  • Robin Lopez (C, one year, $2.0 million)

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

The Kings got some cash to eat Lopez’s contract to help the Bucks save on their tax bill and to open a roster spot.

Sacramento waived Lopez following the trade.

In a more fun note: The Kings used the open roster spot to sign Keon Ellis to a three-year deal from his two-way contract. Ellis has played well in spots for Sacramento and was deserving of a standard deal. The Kings will have him signed long-term on a team-friendly contract. Don’t be surprised if Ellis ends up in the rotation for Sacramento for the rest of the year.

The Kings signed Mason Jones to a two-way contract to backfill the spot Ellis vacated. Jones has been one of the G League’s top snipers this season, as he’s made 48% of his 5.1 three-pointer attempts per game.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 09, 2024

One the stranger trades on deadline day came between two Eastern Conference contenders. The Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers swapped backup point guards, in a rare trade between two teams that competing to win the conference.

Here are the particulars:

Milwaukee Bucks acquire: Patrick Beverley

Philadelphia 76ers acquire: Cameron Payne, 2027 Bucks second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Milwaukee Bucks

Incoming salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

  • Patrick Beverley (PG, one year, $2.0 million)

Outgoing salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

  • Cameron Payne (PG, one year, $2.0 million)

The Bucks defense has been underwhelming all season. They are particular bad with their point-of-attack defense. Enter Beverley.

At this point in his career, Beverley isn’t making any more All-Defensive teams, but he’s still a good on-ball defender. And Beverley is already the best defensive guard Milwaukee has. That’s probably worth swapping out the former backup point guard and a future second-round pick for.

Beverley will also infuse some energy into a team that has lacked it this season. Despite all the excitement over adding Damian Lillard, Milwaukee underachieving has left things feeling flat. Beverley will help to change that.

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

  • Cameron Payne (PG, one year, $2.0 million)

Outgoing salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

  • Patrick Beverley (PG, one year, $2.0 million)

The Sixers seem more likely to lean into offense for the next stretch of game while Joel Embiid is out. Philadelphia is probably going to push pace more. That makes Payne a better fit for the team than Beverley.

However, this trade was mostly about getting that future second-round pick. Daryl Morey gave up three picks to get Buddy Hield in an earlier deal. This recoups one pick. And, of course, the 76ers didn’t add any long-term money in the deal.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 09, 2024

The Phoenix Suns didn’t have a lot to work with at the trade deadline. Phoenix had second-round picks to offer, along with cobbling together players on minimum contracts. That made the Suns getting Royce O’Neale and David Roddy one of the more creative deals of the weekend. Phoenix worked a three-team trade with the Brooklyn Nets and Memphis Grizzlies to upgrade their depth.

Here are the particulars:

Phoenix Suns acquire: Royce O’Neale, David Roddy

Brooklyn Nets acquire: Keita Bates-Diop, Jordan Goodwin, three future second-round picks

Memphis Grizzlies acquire: Chimezie Metu, Yuta Watanabe

Let’s dive in!

Phoenix Suns

Incoming salary: $12.2 million in 2023-24

  • Royce O’Neale (SF, one year, $9.5 million), David Roddy (SF, three years, $10.4 million, rookie scale team option in 2025-26, restricted free agent in 2026)

Outgoing salary: $10.0 million in 2023-24

  • Keita Bates-Diop (SF, two years, $4.6 million, player option in 2024-25), Jordan Goodwin (PG, one year, $1.9 million), Chimezie Metu (C, one year, $2.0 million), Yuta Watanabe (SF, two years, $4.6 million, player option in 2024-25)

This past offseason, the Suns tried to piece together a bench made up mostly players on minimum contracts. Phoenix had a couple of hits with Eric Gordon and Drew Eubanks, but no one else grabbed a regular rotation role. The Suns were also lacking in wing defenders. That made finding some additional depth a challenging, but important task at the deadline.

This trade solves those issues. O’Neale is an immediate defensive upgrade for Phoenix. He’s become a pretty solid 3&D player over his time with the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets. The Suns will be hoping that O’Neale can give them what they had hoped to get from Bates-Diop and Watanabe.

Roddy is a nice flyer for Phoenix. He’s an undersized power player, who needs to shoot it better to find a real spot in the NBA. If he can start making jumpers consistently, Roddy could be a rotation player.

On defense, Roddy can maybe help Phoenix in some small-ball lineups. He’s very strong, so Roddy can hold up against bigger players. He’s also an excellent rebounder for his size.

For now, O’Neale is the focus, but long-term, it could be Roddy that makes this trade a winner for the Suns.

Brooklyn Nets

Incoming salary: $4.3 million in 2023-24

  • Keita Bates-Diop (SF, two years, $4.6 million, player option in 2024-25), Jordan Goodwin (PG, one year, $1.9 million)

Outgoing salary: $9.5 million in 2023-24

  • Royce O’Neale (SF, one year, $9.5 million)

O’Neale no longer had a real place on Nets team that is transitioning to a new phase. Getting three future second-round picks for a player that was no longer in the plans is really good for Brooklyn. That’s the real point of this trade.

Bates-Diop will get a look from the Nets. They can use another wing behind Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson. If Bates-Diop can rediscover the shooting form he had with the San Antonio Spurs last season, he’s a steal for Brooklyn the rest of this year and next. If not, he’s probably a trade candidate this summer, assuming he picks up his player option.

The Nets waived Jordan Goodwin following the trade.

Memphis Grizzlies

Incoming salary: $4.4 million in 2023-24

  • Chimezie Metu (C, one year, $2.0 million), Yuta Watanabe (SF, two years, $4.6 million, player option in 2024-25)

Outgoing salary: $13.7 million in 2023-24

  • David Roddy (SF, three years, $10.4 million, rookie scale team option in 2025-26, restricted free agent in 2026)

Memphis made a second move this trade season to clear out some long-term salary. After trading Steven Adams to the Houston Rockets, the Grizzlies lopped some more long-term money off their books by trade Roddy.

It’s somewhat of an admission that the selection of Roddy in the first round of the 2022 NBA Draft was a mistake. But Memphis can’t afford to be too precious with former draft picks. The roster is mostly full with multi-year players, and the Grizzlies still have picks coming their way. That means making some tough decisions.

This deal helped to open up a roster spot for Memphis to convert G.G. Jackson to a standard contract. Jackson has been a bright spot in a down season for the Grizzlies. Getting him on a long-term deal was a necessity. Between Jackson and Vince Williams Jr., the Grizzlies have done a nice job making lemonade out of a lemon of a season.

Memphis also made a smart upside play by signing Trey Jemison to a two-way contract to backfill Jackson’s spot. Jemison shined in the G League this year and has shown some potential on a pair of 10-day deals in the NBA. He’s a good developmental player to have in the system.

Yuta Watanabe was a fan favorite when he played for Memphis early in his career. For whatever reason, things didn’t work out for Watanabe in Phoenix. He’d been solid previously in other stops. Watanabe will make hustle plays, but it’s really about him getting back to being a good shooter. If he can do that, the Grizzlies might have a rotation guy on a cheap contract.

Memphis waived Chimezie Metu following the trade.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 09, 2024

The Oklahoma City Thunder may be a year ahead of schedule, but that doesn’t change that they are already one of the best teams in the NBA this season. That status saw the Thunder make a move towards improving their postseason rotation by adding Gordon Hayward.

For the Charlotte Hornets, this trade is another sign that they are turning towards a new era. The Hornets have moved on from Hayward and Terry Rozier during trade season. They’re building with new players around LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges. Some of those new players came in this deal with the Thunder.

Here are the particulars:

Oklahoma City Thunder acquire: Gordon Hayward

Charlotte Hornets acquire: Davis Bertans, Tre Mann, Vasilije Micic, two future second-round picks

Note: Charlotte also waived Frank Ntilikina and Ish Smith to complete this trade.

Let’s dive in!

Oklahoma City Thunder

Incoming salary: $33.3 million in 2023-24

  • Gordon Hayward (SF/SG, one year, $33.3 million)

Outgoing salary: $27.9 million in 2023-24

  • Davis Bertans (PF, two years, $33 million, $5.25 million guaranteed in 2024-25), Tre Mann (PG, two years, $8.1 million, restricted free agent in 2025), Vasilije Micic (PG, three years, $23.5 million, team option for 2025-26)

The Thunder didn’t literally go big in terms of size at the trade deadline, but they did in terms of impact. We’ll put the mandatory caveat right here up front: Gordon Hayward has to stay healthy. But if he does, this is a great pickup for Oklahoma City.

When he’s played during his Charlotte tenure, Hayward has been really good. This season he’s averaging 14.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. Hayward also has 47/36/77 shooting splits on the season. That’s great stuff for a high-end role player.

Unfortunately, Hayward has only played in 25 games this season. That includes missing the Hornets last 22 games with a strained calf.

But let’s be positive and hopeful. Maybe on a better team, with less pressure on him to create offense and fewer minutes, Hayward can hold up physically. If he can, he’s an outstanding fit for the Thunder.

When teams have had success guarding Oklahoma City this season, it’s often come via disregarding Josh Giddey on the perimeter. Multiple teams have guarded Giddey with their center floating off him to help against drives. The prevailing theory is that if you lose because Giddey hit four or five three-pointers, you tip your cap and move on.

Now, if that strategy is working for opponents, the Thunder can pull Giddey and replace him with Hayward. That’s a completely different math for opponents. You can’t leave Hayward open. And he provides all the same ballhandling and playmaking as Giddey, and Hayward is nearly as good of a defender too.

Yes, this could fail to work if Hayward can’t get and stay healthy. But it’s a worthy gamble for Oklahoma City to consolidate some pieces. The upside is there, and the Thunder are starting to run out of roster spots to keep everyone anyway.

As far as the future goes, Oklahoma City got out of some money for next year that is owed to the trio of Bertans, Mann and Micic. They’ve got even better flexibility now. The Thunder could go under the cap and create about $30 million in cap space. Of they could stay over the cap, re-sign Hayward and work with the MLE.

A lot of the offseason approach will probably depend on what happens with Hayward and the rest of this season. If he works and the team has a nice postseason, the Thunder will probably invest at least some of that flexibility in re-signing Hayward. If not, they can move on and have a bunch of cap space with only minor roster holes to fill. That’s a pretty great place to be in, both now and moving forward.

Charlotte Hornets

Incoming salary: $27.9 million in 2023-24

  • Davis Bertans (PF, two years, $33 million, $5.25 million guaranteed in 2024-25), Tre Mann (PG, two years, $8.1 million, restricted free agent in 2025), Vasilije Micic (PG, three years, $23.5 million, team option for 2025-26)

Outgoing salary: $33.3 million in 2023-24

  • Gordon Hayward (SF/SG, one year, $33.3 million)

The Hornets have reset things in a major way throughout the course of trade season. They moved off of long-term money for Terry Rozier and P.J. Washington in previous deals. And they cleared minutes and an offseason roster question by trading Hayward in this deal.

For the players coming in, Mann and Micic should both a chance to play. Charlotte has been piecing things together at point guard while LaMelo Ball has missed time. With Mann and Micic, they get two very different, but capable point guards. Mann is more of a get-it-and-go type, while Micic is an old school, probing playmaker. Both should have more opportunities to play with the Hornets, especially while Ball remains out.

Bertans is in a weird spot. He could theoretically provide the Hornets with some perimeter shooting, but he’ll be behind a few other guys for minutes in the frontcourt. This one could end up in a waiver, or maybe Charlotte carries Bertans into the offseason for trade purposes.

Mostly, this deal was about adding some additional draft capital for the Hornets, and taking flyers on the point guards. They’ve rebuilt their draft coffers during trade season by a good amount. And they have some cap flexibility this summer too. Pending what happens with Bridges, the Hornets could have nearly $26 million to spend.

Here’s the key: Charlotte can’t get impatient and overpay veterans just for a minor lift. They’re better off building around their younger players and signing free agents to value deal. Spending it all in one place has rarely worked for this franchise in the past. Let’s see if they’ve learned from that mistake.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

The Dallas Mavericks and Charlotte Hornets swapped powers forwards who signed contracts as restricted free agents this past summer. Dallas is moving on from Grant Williams to bring in P.J. Washington, in a swap of two players who have gone head-to-head a lot.

Here are the particulars:

Dallas Mavericks acquire: P.J. Washington, two future second-round picks

Charlotte Hornets acquire: Grant Williams, Seth Curry, top-2 protected 2027 Mavericks first-round pick

Note: Charlotte waived James Bouknight in order to complete this trade

Let’s dive in!

Dallas Mavericks

Incoming salary: $16.9 million in 2023-24

  • P.J. Washington (PF, three years, $46.5 million)

Outgoing salary: $16.4 million in 2023-24

  • Grant Williams (PF, four years, $53.3 million), Seth Curry (PG/SG, two years, $8 million, contract is non-guaranteed for 2024-25)

The Mavericks made it clear they wanted to upgrade their front court in the weeks approaching the trade deadline. Earlier in the day, Dallas acquired Daniel Gafford for backup center depth. In Washington, the Mavs added some power forward depth too.

Washington may start, or Jason Kidd may stick with Derrick Jones Jr. as his starting four. Either way, Washington is going to play a lot. He’s proven capable of playing well as either a starter or a reserve.

In a somewhat reduced role, the 6-foot-7 big man has still been productive for Charlotte. Washington has averaged 13.6 points and 5.3 rebounds in 29.2 minutes per game. He’s a more athletic player than Williams is, so Dallas may be able to deploy him more in the trap-and-recover schemes Kidd likes to employ on defense.

Dallas didn’t take on much long-term money here either. Washington makes more than Williams does, but he’s on a declining contract. That’ll help as the Mavericks fill out their roster around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the coming seasons.

The downside to this trade is Dallas is out yet another first-round pick. And this pick stings more than some of the others, because it’s partially due to admitting sign-and-trading for Williams last summer was a mistake. The Mavs did get back two second-round picks in the deal, which helps balance out the draft capital some.

Curry was rarely playing regular minutes for Dallas, as younger players had passed him in the rotation.

Charlotte Hornets

Incoming salary: $16.4 million in 2023-24

  • Grant Williams (PF, four years, $53.3 million), Seth Curry (PG/SG, two years, $8 million, contract is non-guaranteed for 2024-25)

Outgoing salary: $16.9 million in 2023-24

  • P.J. Washington (PF, three years, $46.5 million)

Charlotte has begun another rebuild of their roster, while adding valuable draft capital. Williams should slide in and play the same role Washington was, as the top reserve big. It’s unclear if Curry will stick in Charlotte or not. If he does, he could provide some consistent shooting to a roster that is short on that skill.

In getting Williams, the Hornets acquired a player who has won a lot on his career. He has as much, if not more, playoff experience than anyone else on Charlotte’s roster.

Williams remains a solid defender, as long as he’s not tasked with switching out to the perimeter too often. Against most bigs, Williams does a nice job staying in front of them, and he’s strong enough to hold his ground too.

Despite things not working out with the Mavericks, Williams is still a good shooter. He’s hitting 37.6% of his 4.5 three-point attempts per game. Where things really fell apart was with Williams finishing in the paint. He’s fallen off from a solid 47% from floater range to just 33.3%. Williams is also missing more shots directly at the rim too. If that cleans up, he’ll be a productive rotation player on a solid contract.

Ultimately, the key to this deal for the Hornets was getting a very lightly-protected 2027 first-round pick. That pick is top-2 protected for the 2027 NBA Draft. And that just happens to be the year Luka Doncic has a player option for. Given how quickly things can change in the NBA, that’s a good just-in-case kind of bet for Charlotte.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

The Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors got together to swap point guards. The Nets got a player they can incorporate for the next couple of season, while the Raptors cleared out some additional salary for next season.

Here are the particulars:

Brooklyn Nets acquire: Dennis Schroder, Thaddeus Young

Note: Brooklyn waived Harry Giles III to complete this trade

Toronto Raptors acquire: Spencer Dinwiddie

Let’s dive in!

Brooklyn Nets

Incoming salary: $20.4 million in 2023-24

  • Dennis Schroder (PG, two years, $25.4 million), Thaddeus Young (C/PF, one year, $8 million)

Outgoing salary: $20.4 million in 2023-24

  • Spencer Dinwiddie (PG, one year, $20.4 million)

The writing was on the wall for Dinwiddie’s time in Brooklyn. The veteran guard the Nets hadn’t been able to agree on a contract extension. Brooklyn still wanted some certainty at the position, so in comes Schroder.

Schroder has had a nice season for the Raptors, but he was supplanted in the starting lineup by Immanuel Quickley after the OG Anunoby trade. As Toronto is resetting their roster, they don’t need a high-end backup point guard, which made Schroder very available.

The 30-year-old lead guard will bring some stability to the position for Brooklyn. Schroder can score and run the offense. He’s shot relatively well from deep. And he can still be a pesky defender at times.

Schroder’s contract shouldn’t be an impediment to any plans Sean Marks has for the offseason. If it is, the veterans deal is tradable enough that Brooklyn should be able to move him without worry.

It’s been reported that the Nets will waive Thaddeus Young. He’ll be a target for playoff contenders that are looking to add some veteran experience to their frontcourt.

Toronto Raptors

Incoming salary: $20.4 million in 2023-24

  • Spencer Dinwiddie (PG, one year, $20.4 million)

Outgoing salary: $20.4 million in 2023-24

  • Dennis Schroder (PG, two years, $25.4 million), Thaddeus Young (C/PF, one year, $8 million)

This trade was about creating even more cap flexibility for Toronto. It’s already been reported that the Raptors will waive Dinwiddie. He’s already got teams lining up to add him for the playoff run, so that’s probably a win for him in the end.

This deal, combined with Toronto's earlier trade with the Utah Jazz, has created near max cap space for the Raptors this summer. If Toronto keeps their own top-six protected 2024 first-round pick (it’s hovering right around the line of where they’d convey it to the San Antonio Spurs), they’ll have about $34.4 million in cap space this summer. If the Raptors deliver that pick, they’ll have over $40 million in cap space.

Given the Raptors don’t have a ton of rotation holes to fill, that’s some impressive spending power for this offseason. Masai Ujiri said he wasn’t doing a teardown rebuild, but more of a reset. Toronto’s trades today further that notion. The Raptors are set up to bounce back very quickly.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

(Note: This is a revised post, as the previously reported Sixers-Pacers trade was expanded to a three-team deal to include the Spurs)

Before the season started, after extension negotiations went nowhere, Buddy Hield requested a trade from the Indiana Pacers. Months later, Hield finally got his wish. After making his request, but continuing to play hard and well, Hield is headed to the Philadelphia 76ers, who are loading up despite Joel Embiid being out for a while. In an expanded three-team deal, the Pacers replaced Hield’s outside shooting by adding Doug McDermott from the Spurs.

Here are the particulars:

Philadelphia 76ers acquire: Buddy Hield

Indiana Pacers acquire: Furkan Korkmaz, Doug McDermott, three future second-round picks

San Antonio Spurs acquire: Marcus Morris, future second-round pick, cash considerations

Let’s dive in!

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming salary: $19.3 million in 2023-24

  • Buddy Hield (SG, one year, $19.3 million)

Outgoing salary: $22.5 million in 2023-24

  • Marcus Morris Sr. (PF, one year, $17.1 million), Furkan Korkmaz (SG/SF, one year, $5.4 million)

The Sixers made it clear months ago that they wanted to upgrade their roster for this season, while maintaining flexibility for the summer. This trade does that.

Hield is a good player and will provide some scoring punch and spacing. He’s also on an expiring contract. So, if it works out, Philadelphia can look to bring Hield back. If it doesn’t, they can move on and still create the same cap space as before.

Hield’s shooting has dipped a bit this season, but he’s still an elite shooter. The 31-year-old is hitting 38.4% from deep on 6.9 three-point attempts per game. Hield is also regularly available and rarely injured. For a 76ers team that has been very banged up, that’s important.

With Joel Embiid out, Philadelphia has run even more of the offense through Tyrese Maxey. The secondary scorer has been Tobias Harris. Now, they’ll have an additional player who can scale-up and scale-down his game as necessary. If the Sixers need Hield to take 20 shots one night, he’ll get them up. If they need Hield to play a complementary role and mostly draw the defense with his gravity, he’ll do that too. And he should be a terrific fit once Embiid is back in the lineup, as he’ll create space for Embiid, Maxey and Harris to work in.

One minor issue for the Sixers: Morris has played regular minutes in their injury-hit frontcourt. This could mean more minutes for someone like Kenyon Martin Jr. are on tap. Or, more likely, Daryl Morey isn’t done tweaking his roster.

Philadelphia still has several good-sized expiring contracts that they can move. And they’re sitting on some tradable draft picks too. Morey will keep working to round out their depth. Keep an eye on a center who can start for Embiid while he’s out, then slide into a backup role when Embiid returns. And we’re saying “when”, because this trade seems to indicate that the Sixers believe the reigning MVP will return this season.

Indiana Pacers

Incoming salary: $19.1 million in 2023-24

  • Doug McDermott (PF, one year, $13.7 million), Furkan Korkmaz (SG/SF, one year, $5.4 million)

Outgoing salary: $19.3 million in 2023-24

  • Buddy Hield (SG, one year, $19.3 million)

The Pacers had a logjam at the guard position. They’ve used Hield as a starter and off the bench this season. Lately, with a healthy roster, Indiana has gone to Andrew Nembhard as the starting backcourt mate next to Tyrese Haliburton.

That move put Hield in a bench role. Indiana also has Bennedict Mathurin coming off the bench, as well as T.J. McConnell. That’s a lot of overlap in skills and roles. Simply put, someone was going to lose out on minutes somewhere.

The real get in this trade for Indiana is three future second-round picks for a player that was coming to the end of his run with the team. Because of what we laid out above, Hield was likely not in the long-term plans.

McDermott will could help replace some of the shooting that was lost by trading Hield. He’s bigger than Hield, so McDermott should be able to play in lineups that feature two guards. He’s on an expiring deal, so the Pacers long-term cap flexibility takes on no hit.

It’s already been reported that the Pacers will waive Korkmaz.

San Antonio Spurs

Incoming salary: $17.1 million in 2023-24

  • Marcus Morris Sr. (PF, one year, $17.1 million)

Outgoing salary: $13.7 million in 2023-24

  • Doug McDermott (PF, one year, $13.7 million)

The Spurs side of this deal is fairly simple: They added a second-round pick and some cash to cover the difference between Morris and McDermott’s salary.

It’s been reported that Morris is expected to work a buyout with the Spurs. That makes sense, as San Antonio is prioritizing playing younger players for the rest of this season. Morris was fairly productive in his stint with the Sixers, so he should be able to find a new home. Two things to note: Morris can’t return to Philadelphia, as they just traded him. And because his salary is above that of the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount ($12.4 million) Morris can’t sign with any of the apron teams either.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

The New York Knicks pulled off one of the biggest moves on trade deadline day when they acquired Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks from the Detroit Pistons. The Knicks sent the Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier, two second-round picks and salary filler to the Pistons in the deal.

This move sets Detroit up to actually increase their 2024 cap space, and they get to incorporate Grimes with their young team. For New York, the move took on increased importance with an injury update that came out later in the day on Thursday.

Here are the particulars:

New York Knicks acquire: Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks

Detroit Pistons acquire: Ryan Arcidiacono, Malachi Flynn, Evan Fournier, Quentin Grimes, two future second-round picks

Note: Detroit also waived Killian Hayes and Danuel House Jr. to complete this trade.

Let’s dive in!

New York Knicks

Incoming salary: $30.5 million in 2023-24

  • Bojan Bogdanovic (SF/PF, two years, $39 million, $2 million guaranteed in 2024-25), Alec Burks (SG, one year, $10.5 million)

Outgoing salary: 27.1 million in 2023-24

  • Ryan Arcidiacono (PG, one year, $2.0 million), Malachi Flynn (PG, one year, $3.9 million), Evan Fournier (SG/SF, two years, $37.8 million, team option for 2024-25), Quentin Grimes (SG, two years, $6.7 million, restricted free agent in 2025)

Whew, boy!

The Knicks went big in trade season. They traded for OG Anunoby in an earlier deal, and then swung arguably the day’s biggest trade in terms of players and impact. And New York didn’t sacrifice much draft capital, while still retaining some salary flexibility too. That’s good work.

This trade took on a whole other meaning when news broke that OG Anunoby is out at least the next three weeks after undergoing surgery on his right elbow. That’s on top of Julius Randle, who is in the midst of a multi-week absence after dislocating his right shoulder.

Instead of Bogdanovic coming in as a fill-in starter and then a key reserve, he’ll become a key starter as soon as he’s ready to play. And that’s a good thing. Bogdanovic is still a very good offensive player. He’ll help lessen the burden on Jalen Brunson to create everything for New York while Randle is out.

The 35-year-old remains equally adept at creating his own looks, as he is as a spot-up shooter. That kind of versatility should fit in nicely with Brunson right away, and then with Randle when he returns. Bogdanovic is shooting 41.5% on a career-high 7.4 three-point attempts per game. That’ll help boost a Knicks team that is middle-of-the-pack in terms of shooting.

Defensively, Bogdanovic is competitive. He’s better against bigger forwards now, because he’s fairly strong and a solid positional defender. When he draws a quicker player, he’ll need some help. But the Knicks have enough good defenders to cover for Bogdanovic when necessary.

As for Burks, think of him as the Immanuel Quickley replacement. He’s not as good as Quickley, but that’s the role the Knicks will ask him to play. New York is going to want Burks to provide the sort of instant offense they’ve been missing since trading Quickley.

After a really rough start, Burks has bounced back as a shooter. He’s up to 40.1% on 5.7 three-point attempts per game. He’s also a pretty good creator off the dribble. Burks isn’t nearly the defender Quickley could be, nor the passer, but as a bench scorer, he’ll help New York a lot.

On the cap sheet, things stayed relatively neutral. Bogdanovic is only guaranteed $2 million out of his $19 million deal, but expect the Knicks to guarantee the whole thing. If nothing else, that rolls over a big expiring contract into next year’s trade market for New York.

Giving up Quentin Grimes had to be hard for a Knicks front office that prized the young guard. However, he had struggled to adapt to a backup role this season. Grimes needs consistent minutes and a role. He’ll get that in Detroit, and he wasn’t likely to in a crowded Knicks backcourt.

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: 27.1 million in 2023-24

  • Ryan Arcidiacono (PG, one year, $2.0 million), Malachi Flynn (PG, one year, $3.9 million), Evan Fournier (SG/SF, two years, $37.8 million, team option for 2024-25), Quentin Grimes (SG, two years, $6.7 million, restricted free agent in 2025)

Outgoing salary: $30.5 million in 2023-24

  • Bojan Bogdanovic (SF/PF, two years, $39 million, $2 million guaranteed in 2024-25), Alec Burks (SG, one year, $10.5 million)

So…there is a lot going on here. First, this is a 4-for-2 trade. That meant the Pistons had to waive two players. They did that by waiving Killian Hayes and recently-acquired Danuel House Jr.

Let’s start with the Hayes part, as it’s fascinating how quickly he fell out of favor. In his fourth season, Hayes has only shown incremental progress from the flawed prospect he was as the 7th overall pick at the 2020 NBA Draft.

Hayes can’t shoot. He’s never become the defender he looked like he might. His playmaking has been solid enough, but the utter lack of scoring ability sunk Hayes as starting point guard. The good news? Hayes is only 22 years old. He’s a nice “second draft” flyer for team with a good player development staff and available minutes to let Hayes figure things out.

As for the trade, the Pistons main gets in this deal were Quentin Grimes and two future second picks. Even if we consider Grimes a pseudo first-round pick substitute, this is still a bit off the two firsts and two seconds that Detroit insisted they needed for Bogdanovic and Burks.

That said…this is more realistic value.

Grimes is a nice player who should fit in nicely with the Pistons young core. He’ll be able to play with Cade Cunningham, Jade Ivey, Ausar Thompson and Marcus Sasser in versatile guard/wing groupings. Detroit should also have the ability to give Grimes plenty of minutes, which is something he was seeing less and less of in New York.

The two second-round picks, combined with Grimes, are more reasonable value for Bogdanovic and Burks. Both players are still good, but they are aging and they both are coming to end of their contracts.

Detroit also acquired Evan Fournier in this deal. It’s not clear if Fournier will get a chance to play much. Given Monty Williams’ fondness for having vets on the floor, don’t bet against it. If he does get to play, Fournier will have a chance to show he can still shoot and score. He didn’t forget how to play basketball, despite the Knicks shelving him for the better part of the last two years. Fournier will be motivated to show he can still play, given his contract status for next season.

Detroit will likely decline Fournier’s $19 million team option for next season, as they pursue max cap space. It’s unclear if Ryan Arcidiacono or Malachi Flynn will make it to next week, never mind next season. They aren’t likely to be part of the Pistons beyond this season either.

That means the only long-term money Detroit took on was the $4.3 million for Quentin Grimes. The Pistons weren’t going to just waive Bojan Bogdanovic next year, so they actually created almost $15 million more in cap space next summer. Look for the Pistons to have north of $60 million in cap room come July.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

In a move that helped the Philadelphia 76ers dodge the luxury tax, the Detroit Pistons picked up an additional 2024 second-round pick.

Here are the particulars:

Detroit Pistons acquire: Danuel House Jr., 2024 Knicks second-round pick

Philadelphia 76ers acquire: 2028 Pistons second-round pick (top-55 protected)

Let’s dive in!

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: $4.3 million in 2023-24

  • Danuel House Jr. (SF, one year, $4.3 million)
  • Detroit also waived Joe Harris to create the roster space to bring in House. House was acquired via the Marvin Bagley TPE that the Pistons had available.

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

This is pretty simple on the Pistons side. Detroit gets a second-round pick for taking on some money for House. The pick won’t be a great one, as the Knicks are playing well, but it’s something Troy Weaver can add to his draft capital stash.

The Pistons pick is top-55 protected in 2028. If that conveys, Detroit will be thrilled as it means they are one of the best teams in the NBA.

As for House the player: the Pistons waived him to be able to complete another trade they made with the Knicks. Detroit also waived Joe Harris to create space to acquire House. Harris was out of the rotation for the Pistons and will count as $19.9 million dead money for the rest of this season.

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: $4.3 million in 2023-24

  • Danuel House Jr. (SF, one year, $4.3 million)

Combining this trade with the Sixers sending Marcus Morris Sr. and Furkan Korkmaz to the Indiana Pacers for Buddy Hield, Philadelphia is out of the luxury tax. That’s the motivation behind giving up a pick to dump House.

The 76ers now have the ability to play in the buyout market. Because they are well under the apron, Philadelphia has no restrictions on who they can sign after a buyout. And the Sixers have a lot of roster spots to fill, so Daryl Morey has a busy couple of weeks ahead of him.

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

The Dallas Mavericks wanted to upgrade their frontcourt. They got that done by trading for one of the more underrated centers in the NBA. In exchange, the Washington Wizards added some additional draft capital as they continue their rebuild.

Here are the particulars:

Dallas Mavericks acquire: Daniel Gafford

Washington Wizards acquire: Richaun Holmes, 2024 first-round pick via the Thunder

Let’s dive in!

Dallas Mavericks

Incoming salary: $12.4 million in 2023-24

  • Daniel Gafford (C, three years, $40.2 million)

Outgoing salary: $12.0 million in 2023-24

  • Richaun Holmes (C, two years, $24.9 million, player option for 2024-25)

Dallas was motivated to build up their frontcourt. They accomplished that in a pair of trade deadline moves that saw the team acquire Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. We’re going to focus on the Gafford acquisition now, and we’ll hit on the Washington in a separate piece.

Gafford is in the midst of the best year of his career. He’s started in 45 games he’s played, and Gafford has averaged 10.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game.

It’s the latter two stats that are particularly encouraging for Gafford. He’s been an improved defender, even if that gets lost somewhat in the overall sloppiness of the Wizards team defense. The 25-year-old big man is also a solid rebounder. That’s been a weakness for Dallas this season and one Gafford should help shore up.

For the Mavericks, Gafford is probably coming off the bench. He’ll replace Dwight Powell as the primary backup for Dereck Lively II. That gives Dallas three very capable centers that they can use at any time. That’s important because Lively has had some issues staying on the floor. The Mavs can now make sure he’s fully ready to play, because they have Gafford in the fold.

Dallas took on an extra year of salary in this deal, but it was only $14.4 million in 2025-26. That’ll be roughly equivalent to the Non-Taxpayer MLE. Gafford should return that much value with ease.

As for the draft pick compensation, the Mavs had to get a little creative. Dallas worked with the Oklahoma City Thunder to send a 2028 first-round pick swap to the Thunder for a 2024 first-round pick. That allowed the Mavs to route the draft compensation that the Wizards needed for Gafford.

Washington Wizards

Incoming salary: $12.0 million in 2023-24

  • Richaun Holmes (C, two years, $24.9 million, player option for 2024-25)

Outgoing salary: $12.4 million in 2023-24

  • Daniel Gafford (C, three years, $40.2 million)

The Wizards were able to get a first-round pick for Daniel Gafford. That’s something they couldn’t do in the Bradley Beal or Kristaps Porzingis trades.

Washington also got off an additional year of salary for Gafford in 2025-26 in this trade. As the Wizards continue along with the rebuild, additional draft capital and cap flexibility are desirable commodities.

There’s also a chance that Richaun Holmes could rehab his value as a member of the Wizards. The last two years have been mostly lost campaigns for the 30-year-old big man, but there’s still talent there.

As recently as 2021-22, Holmes averaged 10.4 points and 7.0 rebounds. He should get a chance to play for the Wizards. If Holmes can rebuild his value, it will help him, and it will help the Wizards by virtue of a potential re-trade down the line.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

The Toronto Raptors are continuing to reshape their roster, after trading OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam earlier this season. In a deal with the Utah Jazz, the Raptors added a young wing with some upside and a veteran center in exchange for two non-rotation players and a 2024 first-round pick.

Here are the particulars:

Toronto Raptors acquire: Ochai Agbaji, Kelly Olynyk

Utah Jazz acquire: Kira Lewis Jr., Otto Porter Jr., 2024 first-round pick (likely from the Thunder or Clippers)

(Note: This will functionally be two separate trades, since Lewis can’t be aggregated in this deal.)

Let’s dive in!

Toronto Raptors

Incoming salary: $16.3 million in 2023-24

  • Ochai Agbaji (SF/SG, three years, $14.8 million, rookie scale team option in 2025-26), Kelly Olynyk (C/PF, one year, $12.2 million)

Outgoing salary: $12.2 million in 2023-24

  • Kira Lewis Jr. (PG, one year, $5.7 million, restricted free agent in 2024), Otto Porter Jr. (PF/SF, one year, $6.3 million)

Masai Ujiri said he wasn’t tearing the Raptors roster down to rebuild after the OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam trades. Instead, Ujiri is resetting things in Toronto. This trade furthers that strategy.

Effectively, Toronto gave up a very late (probably in the 25-30 range) first-round pick in what is considered a weak 2024 NBA Draft for Agbaji. Considering Agbaji was just the 14th overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, that’s not a bad upgrade.

Agbaji is seen as a potential 3&D starting wing. As of right now, the “D” part is well ahead the “3” part of that equation. After an encouraging 36% as a rookie, Agbaji has slipped to 33% this season. If he’s going to make it as a regular starter, he’ll need to bring that up considerably.

As it stands, Agbaji is a good defender and a nice bench player. He fits in the new-look Raptors rotation in that sense. He’s a bit older for a second-year player, as he’s already 23 years old, but Agbaji still has some upside left to discover.

And all of that is before we get to Olynyk.

Adding a veteran center on an expiring contract feels like an odd move for Toronto, but they did this a year ago with Jakob Poeltl. The idea may simply be to get Olynyk, and his Bird Rights, and to re-sign him this summer. That would match the path the Raptors took with Poeltl.

Olynyk brings a dimension that no other Raptors big does. He’s a good perimeter player, as Olynyk can shoot and pass. He’s also a solid roll-man, which Toronto has been lacking this season. He’s a good changeup from Poeltl as a center combo.

If the Raptors retain Olynyk, or turn him into another long-term fit down the line, they’ve done well in this trade. If not, then it’s probably more of a neutral value.

Finally, it’s worth noting that Toronto took on very little future money in this trade. They’re still set up to be a major free agency player with north of $30 million cap space this summer.

Utah Jazz

Incoming salary: $12.2 million in 2023-24

  • Kira Lewis Jr. (PG, one year, $5.7 million, restricted free agent in 2024), Otto Porter Jr. (PF/SF, one year, $6.3 million)

Outgoing salary: $16.3 million in 2023-24

  • Ochai Agbaji (SF/SG, three years, $14.8 million, rookie scale team option in 2025-26), Kelly Olynyk (C/PF, one year, $12.2 million)

We’ve written and said repeatedly that Danny Ainge won’t be seduced by the allure of the Play-In Tournament. If there is a good deal to be made, he’ll make it and let the standings fall where they may. Ainge did it last season, and he’s done it again here.

For Ainge, he acquired another first-round pick for an expiring contract at a position where the Jazz have depth and a player who was blocking a younger player with more upside. In addition, Ainge cleared about $4.3 million in salary off next year’s books.

That’s pretty solid work, even if it potentially weakens Utah’s rotation for the rest of this season.

After trading Simone Fontecchio, and now Agbaji, the runway is clear for Taylor Hendricks to play significant minutes. He’s played well in the G League and is brimming with potential. The Jazz can use the rest of this season to see how he fits in with Lauri Markkanen and others.

Up front, barring further trades, Utah still has Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler in the rotation. They also like Omer Yurtseven and Luka Samanic, who could see some increased minutes too.

It’s unlikely that either Lewis or Porter will play much of a role for the Jazz. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see either of them waived and allowed to catch on elsewhere.

Keep an eye on Utah continuing to try to clear even more cap space for next summer. They’d like to renegotiate-and-extend Markkanen’s deal, plus have some left over to make other moves. This is a multi-year rebuilding process for the Jazz. Their two (so far!) deadline moves signal that the work is far from complete.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 07, 2024

After earlier making a trade for Simone Fontecchio from the Utah Jazz, the Detroit Pistons continued the process of reshaping the roster. This time, the Pistons sent Monte Morris to the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have been looking for additional backcourt depth.

Here are the particulars:

Minnesota Timberwolves acquire: Monte Morris

Detroit Pistons acquire: Troy Brown Jr., Shake Milton, 2030 Minnesota Timberwolves second-round pick

(Note: Detroit will need to waive or trade another player to be in roster compliance. That additional transaction was not known at the time of this writing.)

Let’s dive in!

Minnesota Timberwolves

Incoming salary: $9.8 million in 2023-24

  • Monte Morris (PG, one year, $9.8 million)

Outgoing salary: $9 million in 2023-24

  • Troy Brown Jr. (SF/SG, two years, $8.0 million, team option for 2024-25), Shake Milton (PG/SG, two years, $10 million, team option for 2024-25)

The Timberwolves entered trade deadline eve in a four-way tie atop the Western Conference. That’s pretty rarified air for Minnesota. And they got there despite a pretty glaring hole in their rotation at backup point guard.

Mike Conley is having an outstanding and efficient season for the Wolves. When he’s on the court, Minnesota is +9.0 in offensive rating compared to when he’s off the court. Now, offensive rating isn’t an individual stat, but it does paint a picture that matches the eye test: The Timberwolves offense gets really messy whenever Conley isn’t on the floor.

That made it a major goal to find a quality backup point guard. Minnesota front office leader Tim Connelly did so by returning to a familiar face in Morris. Connelly originally drafted Morris in the second round of the 2017 NBA Draft.

We can basically disregard Morris’ stats for this season, as he’s only recently returned from injury for the Pistons to play just six games. If we focus on his previous seasons with the Washington Wizards and Denver Nuggets, we see one of the very best backup point guards in the NBA. And Morris is a guy who can perform well as a fill-in starter too.

With the Wizards last season, Morris put up 10.3 points and 5.3 assists. In his last year in Denver, Morris started for Jamal Murray (who was out after a torn ACL) and he averaged 12.6 points and 4.4 assists. The veteran guard also never turns the ball over. Seriously. His assist/turnover ratio is so stark, that it’s earned Morris the nickname “Count of Monte Assist/TO”.

Now, when Conley has to sit, whether it’s for in-game rest or to take a night off, Chris Finch can turn the offense over to the more-than-capable Morris. Outside of maybe finding one more wing with some size, Minnesota’s playoff rotation is as deep and solid as there is in the entire league.

On the cap sheet, the Timberwolves edged ever closer to the tax like. They’ll be about $1.5 million under the tax, but they also have two open roster spots. One of those spots will have to filled within 14 days. Look for the Wolves to do what they can to stay under the tax line, which might mean another trade or some signing gymnastics with 10-day deals and the like.

The reason dodging the tax this season is important is that Minnesota already has over $165 million committed to just five players (Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Karl-Anthony Towns) for next season. That’s against a projected tax line of just over $171 million, a first apron of $178.6 million and a second apron of $189.5 million.

When you factor in the team’s smaller guaranteed salaries and filling out the roster, the Timberwolves project to be over the first apron. And that’s before you account for the potential re-signing of Conley and/or Morris. And if the Wolves project to be a multi-year luxury tax team, keeping the repeater clock at bay for a year makes it imperative to stay under the tax this season.

But those are tomorrow’s problems. Today, Minnesota shored up a major weak spot and further solidified themselves as an 2024 NBA Finals contender. That’s great work at a fairly minimal cost.

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: $9 million in 2023-24

  • Troy Brown Jr. (SF/SG, two years, $8.0 million, team option for 2024-25), Shake Milton (PG/SG, two years, $10 million, team option for 2024-25)

Outgoing salary: $9.8 million in 2023-24

  • Monte Morris (PG, one year, $9.8 million)

In Detroit they can say “Monte, we hardly knew ye!”. Morris played just six games for the Pistons after he was acquired in a salary-clearing move from the Washington Wizards this past summer.

So, the Pistons aren’t really losing much here. Yes, they gave up a 2027 second-round pick to get Morris in the first place, but they made that back here. That’s basically a wash.

On the court, we’ll see what Milton and Brown can do for Detroit. Both could play roles on a Pistons team that is rapidly reshaping itself. Milton could plug right into Morris’ role in the backup point guard rotation behind Cade Cunningham. Milton has historically been a pretty good shooter and scorer, even if he’s struggled with his shot this season.

Brown has bounced around a lot in his six-year NBA career. The Pistons will be his fifth team already. But Brown is still only 24 years old. He might still have some of that late-bloomer shine left on him. He’s actually shot the ball better over the last two seasons, which is encouraging. He could get some run the rest of this year to show Detroit what he can do.

Neither Milton nor Brown should take away any minutes from players on rookie deals like Ausar Thompson and Marcus Sasser, who might be a big part of Detroit’s future. However, Monty Williams has made some curious playing time decisions this season. If nothing else, the Pistons front office can control what happens with both Milton and Brown following this season.

Milton has a $5 million team option for 2024-25, while Brown has a $4 million team option. That means this trade doesn’t do anything to impact the Pistons league-leading $46.6 million in projected cap space for this summer.

If Milton or Brown pops, their salaries are low enough that Detroit could keep them without overly hurting their cap space plans. Most likely, Milton and Brown will play out the year, and the Pistons will decline their options for next season. Detroit will then remain open to re-signing either player after they’ve used their cap space.

Finally, getting a 2030 Wolves second-rounder is a nice return for a guy who wasn’t a part of the long-term future. 2030 is so far off that Minnesota could be rebuilding their team following retirements and departures of several players, as all of their current contracts will have expired by then. If nothing else, Detroit has a future asset to use at currency in another future trade.

Keith SmithFebruary 07, 2024

The Boston Celtics have the NBA’s best record, but have been searching to fill out their bench. An area of concern has been frontcourt depth. Boston filled that need by acquiring Xavier Tillman Sr. from the Memphis Grizzlies.

Here are the particulars:

Boston Celtics acquire: Xavier Tillman Sr.

Memphis Grizzlies acquire: Lamar Stevens, 2027 Atlanta Hawks second-round pick, 2030 Dallas Mavericks second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Boston Celtics

Incoming salary: $1.9 million in 2023-24

  • Xavier Tillman Sr. (C, one year, $1.9 million)

Outgoing salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

  • Lamar Stevens (SF/PF, one year, $2.0 million)

Boston has been looking to fill out their bench with quality depth. It’s been termed as looking to add emergency players. That’s what Tillman will likely be for the Celtics, with some potential upside.

Tillman is an undersized five, but he’s strong and a rugged defender. He’s got decent length and athleticism too. That allows him to compete with bigger players and to hold up defensively. He can be used in a number of different schemes, which is important with how often Boston changes their coverages.

On offense, Tillman has been all over the place. As a rookie in 2020-21, Tillman shot a promising 34% on three-pointers. Since then, the outside shot has all but disappeared. This season, Tillman has broken it back out, but he’s hitting only 23% on 1.6 three-point attempts per game.

More worrisome? Tillman’s finishing around the rim has fallen way off too. After hitting a career-high 75% in shots at the rim last season, Tillman has dropped to 57% this season. The hope is that’s because Tillman has been playing in talent-deficient lineups for the incredibly banged-up Grizzlies. With others to attract some attention, Tillman’s efficiency should return.

Beyond his defense and scoring, Tillman is a pretty good rebounder and passer. His per-minute rebounding stats show a guy who is a plus on the glass. Tillman is an underrated passer too. Look for the Celtics to use him in some of the top-of-the-key and elbow actions where Al Horford and Rob Williams have excelled as playmakers.

Boston likely sees Tillman as their fourth-big man. Kristaps Porzingis is the lone starting big, while Horford plays what is essentially a starter’s role off the bench. Luke Kornet has been the third big, with two-way player Neemias Queta filling in when someone is out.

Tillman will bump Queta, who is closing in on maxing out the 50 NBA games he’s allowed to be active for as a two-way player. If Tillman is healthy, and assimilates quickly to the Celtics, he could eventually supplant Kornet in the rotation too.

One interesting and important piece of cap minutiae: Because Boston was able to send Stevens to Memphis in this deal, they were able to retain the entirety of the $6.2 million traded player exception they have from last summer’s sign-and-trade of Grant Williams. Boston also retained an open roster spot. That TPE and the open roster spot are good tools and flexibility for Brad Stevens to have, as he continues to fill out the Celtics bench.

Memphis Grizzlies

Incoming salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

  • Lamar Stevens (SF/PF, one year, $2.0 million)

Outgoing salary: $1.9 million in 2023-24

  • Xavier Tillman Sr. (C, one year, $1.9 million)

The Grizzlies are continuing the reshape their roster in what’s become a lost season due to injuries. Trading Tillman doesn’t actually save Memphis any money this season, but they do clear up an open free agent question for the summer.

The Grizzlies might have felt some pressure to re-sign Tillman, who was a draft-and-develop find. Now, they can move in a different direction without feeling a need to potentially overpay Tillman in unrestricted free agency.

Memphis gets to add a couple of additional second-round picks to their coffers. As we covered in the breakdown of the Steven Adams trade, these picks are valuable currency for the Grizzlies. They can use them to backfill open roster spots (standard or two-way), or they can use them in future trades.

It’s somewhat unlikely that Lamar Stevens will play a role for Memphis. He may not even stick past the trade deadline. The Grizzlies would like to clear an open roster spot to sign two-way player GG Jackson to a standard deal. Waiving, or re-trading, Stevens seems to be a path toward getting that done.

The Grizzlies may not be done reworking their roster either. They still have several role players that could interest teams. Memphis is setting themselves up to rebound in a big way with a healthy roster next season. Continuing to clear room around the tax and the aprons could lead to additional summertime moves to aid in a major turnaround for next season.

Keith SmithFebruary 07, 2024

The Detroit Pistons have been adamant that they aren’t bottoming out their roster, despite the team sitting at the bottom of the NBA’s standings. Detroit has been termed as an opportunistic buyer, and that seemingly led the Pistons to a trade with the Utah Jazz.

Here are the particulars:

Detroit Pistons acquire: Simone Fontecchio

Utah Jazz acquire: Kevin Knox, 2024 second-round pick (more favorable of Memphis Grizzlies and Washington Wizards), draft rights to Gabriele Procida

Let’s dive in!

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: $3.0 million in 2023-24

  • Simone Fontecchio (SF, one year, $3.0 million, restricted free agent in 2024)

Outgoing salary: $1.8 million in 2023-24

  • Kevin Knox (SF/PF, one year, $1.8 million)

The Pistons have been sending signals for weeks, if not months, that they have no intention of staying a bad team. They aren’t in fire-sale mode with their veterans. They’ve pursued players who are on long-term contracts, or under team control, over the past few weeks. Hence: the Zach LaVine rumors.

In Fontecchio, Detroit gets to make a fairly minimal investment to get a player who could really help them now, and moving forward.

Fontecchio has good size for the small forward position. He’s a good shooter and a capable ball-mover. Fontecchio isn’t a great halfcourt scorer, but he’s capable of attacking a closeout or making a move in transition to create a shot.

On defense, Fontecchio is competitive. He’s not going to shut down opposing wings, but he knows how to work within a scheme to shade his man toward help. He’s got pretty good hands, which help him get rebounds and deflections.

Contractually, Detroit will have a pretty immediate decision to make on Fontecchio. They’ll have him for 30ish games before Fontecchio is eligible for restricted free agency this summer. Even though he’s 28 years old, Fontecchio has only been in the NBA for two seasons. Most players with three or fewer years of service are eligible for restricted free agency.

In order to make Fontecchio a restricted free agent, the Pistons will have to tender him a qualifying offer worth $3.8 million. Doing that will allow Detroit to match any offer sheets that Fontecchio might sign as a restricted free agent. It will come at the cost of about $3.9 million in cap space, as that’s the cap hold that will land on Detroit’s books.

Even with Fontecchio’s cap hold on the books, the Pistons project to have an NBA-high $46.6 million in cap space come July.

This trade also opens up Detroit to potentially listen to trade offers for Bojan Bogdanovic or Alec Burks. Fontecchio overlaps positionally with both players. The Pistons could keep all three guys and move into next season with a solid veteran wing group around a lot of young players. Or Detroit could explore moving either Bogdanovic or Burks with Fontecchio in the fold as a replacement.

Knox had played well for Detroit this year, after being signed a few weeks into the season. He’s a replacement level guy though, and he wasn’t assured of having a long-term future with the Pistons.

The draft pick the Pistons are giving up is perhaps a bit steep. However, it’s unlikely Detroit would have drafted a player better than Fontecchio, even with an early second-round pick. And the Pistons are clearly done with building around more young players. They want to add veterans around their youthful core.

The draft rights to Procida are nothing to sneeze at either. We’ll cover him more in the Jazz section. But, like we said above with the draft pick, there isn’t a lot of room to add even more kids to the Pistons roster.

Utah Jazz

Incoming salary: $1.8 million in 2023-24

  • Kevin Knox (SF/PF, one year, $1.8 million)

Outgoing salary: $3.0 million in 2023-24

  • Simone Fontecchio (SF, one year, $3.0 million, restricted free agent in 2024)
  • The Jazz will likely bring Kevin Knox in via the Minimum Exception. That will allow Utah to create a $3 million traded player exception for Simone Fontecchio.
  • All signs pointed to the Jazz making at least one trade, if not a few, before Thursday’s deadline. Utah did something similar last season, while sitting in a similar spot in the standings. Danny Ainge will not allow the allure of the Play-In Tournament to seduce him. If he feels there is a good deal to be made, Ainge will make it.

That said, this seems like pretty value for Utah.

Fontecchio has played well, and he’s started for most of the season at small forward for the Jazz. But Utah needs to free up some playing time for younger players, namely 2023 lottery pick Taylor Hendricks. Hendricks has flashed in limited NBA moments, but he’s looked pretty good in the G League. He’s ready to take on a rotation role, either for the rest of this season or at the start of next season.

It’s next season that this was about for Utah as much as it was about any kind of 2024 postseason push.

The Jazz have a chance to create over $40 million in cap space next summer. Trading Fontecchio removes the question of whether or not to tender him a qualifying offer. Now, Utah can move forward with maximizing cap space without Fontecchio’s fate hanging over them.

Adding a high second-round pick is pretty good value. Ainge can add it to his stash of picks and use it as currency in a move that’s to come down the line. At worst, Utah will draft a cost-controlled young player to backfill free agents that move off the roster this offseason.

Adding Gabriele Procida is a smart, no-cost, upside play for the Jazz. The 6-foot-6 wing has good size for his position. Procida has also taken a path somewhat similar to Fontecchio’s. He started his professional career in his native Italy, before moving to ALBA Berlin in Germany. That’s the same move Fontecchio made, before spending a season in Spain ahead of moving to the NBA.

Procida played mostly as a reserve in Italy’s top league. He showed off a nice outside shot, as well as capable defense. In Germany, the 21-year-old has continued his development. Procida hasn’t shot it as well, but he’s been a solid enough defender. ALBA Berlin has struggled in the EuroLeague this season, but they remain one of the better clubs in the German Bundesliga. That means Procida is getting high-level experience at a young age.

Only time will tell if Kevin Knox sticks on the Jazz roster. Utah can keep him for depth purposes for now, as they see how things develop through both the trade deadline and during buyout season.

Don’t be surprised if the Jazz aren’t quite done tweaking their roster. Ainge will keep working as he looks to add talent to solid foundation built around Lauri Markkanen (who will like renegotiate-and-extend his contract this summer) and a promising core of young players. But veterans like Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Clarkson, Kris Dunn and Talen Horton-Tucker, and possibly John Collins and Collin Sexton, have drawn trade interest. It wouldn’t be a shock to see a couple more rotation players on the move from Utah before Thursday’s deadline.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 01, 2024

The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies hooked up on a deal that will have no impact on the current season, but could have a major impact down the line.

Here are the particulars:

Houston Rockets acquire: Steven Adams

Memphis Grizzlies acquire: Victor Oladipo, three future second-round picks.

Fun little trade between two division rivals. Let’s dive in!

Houston Rockets

Incoming salary: $12.6 million in 2023-24

  • Steven Adams (C, two years, $25.2 million, $12.6 million in 2023-24)

Outgoing salary: $9.5 million in 2023-24

  • Victor Oladipo (SG, one year, $9.5 million)

It’s important to note from the jump that Steven Adams is injured and will miss the remainder of the 2023-24 season. So, the on-court impact for this trade won’t be felt until next season. But when it is, it should be a big one for the Rockets.

When we last saw Adams, he was in the midst of the best rebounding season of his career at 11.5 rebounds per game. In fact, Adams run with the Grizzlies saw him average double-digit rebounds for the first two times in his career.

When we next see Adams, he’ll be a 31-year-old coming off having missed an entire season. Will he still be a rebounding, defending, screen-setting force? Or will Adams be unable to stay healthy and slowed enough that his impact is negligible.

Clearly, the Rockets are betting on the former.

Even if he is healthy, Adams probably isn’t a starting center anymore. His offensive impact is setting screens, keeping the ball moving and cleaning up on the offensive glass. Those are all great skills, but Adams isn’t someone teams gameplan around on offense.

On defense, Adams is still pretty rugged. He gets on the defensive glass and he’ll block the occasional shot. He’s also a good backline defender, because he can set and call out coverages for his teammates.

Coming off a right knee injury, and subsequent surgery, that cost him the latter half of last season and all of this season, the veteran center is probably going to see his minutes limited. He’d already dipped under 30 minutes per game the last few years, but that number may now fall below 20 minutes per game.

For Houston, that’s actually fine. The Rockets starting center is burgeoning star Alperen Sengun. Houston had been looking for weeks to find a physical veteran to pair with Sengun. That’s now Adams.

Ime Udoka can now go into next season knowing he has 48 minutes of center play covered most nights between Sengun, Adams and various small-ball options. And Adams’ $12.6 million for 2024-25 is of minimal concern, since Houston should still be well below the luxury tax. The Rockets can also create even more distance under the tax line if they waive Jock Landale or, less likely, Jeff Green.

The three second-round picks are a steep cost for the Rockets. However, there needs to be a bit of context factored in. Two picks are reportedly coming in 2024 and one in 2025. In 2024, the Rockets have picks from the Brooklyn Nets, Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder. None of those are projected to be particularly juicy, meaning near the top of the second-round. In 2025, the Rockets only have the Thunder’s pick. Again, that’s likely to be in the back half of the round, if not deep into the 50s.

In addition to the picks being potentially less-then-stellar, Houston is kind of running out of roster spots, especially ones for developmental prospects. The Rockets seem committed to making a run at the playoffs in 2025. They’d rather use their end-of-the-bench spots on veterans who could play a real role in a playoff run.

Memphis Grizzlies

Incoming salary: $9.5 million in 2023-24

  • Victor Oladipo (SG, one year, $9.5 million)

Outgoing salary: $12.6 million in 2023-24

  • Steven Adams (C, two years, $25.2 million, $12.6 million in 2023-24)
  • The Grizzlies will likely create a $12.6 million Traded Player Exception (TPE) for Steven Adams in this deal. They’ll do this by bringing Victor Oladipo into the Disabled Player Exception (DPE) that they have for Ja Morant. Memphis will also forfeit the DPE they currently have for Adams, once the deal is completed.

This trade is all about flexibility for Memphis. With Adams on the books for next season, the Grizzlies were facing being a potential second apron team. With Adams off the books, and Oladipo on an expiring contract, Memphis projects to be only $2 million over the tax line. That’s close enough that another move or two could see the Grizzlies get out of the tax entirely.

And that’s what this trade is all about: Flexibility.

Memphis was previously in a tough spot, as second apron teams will have the full boat of restrictions placed upon them next season. Making trades is more difficult, as the second apron teams can’t aggregate salaries and they have to match salary dollar for dollar. They also don’t have any of the better signing exceptions. Essentially, second apron teams are limited to signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum contracts.

Before making this deal, Memphis would likely have been making a difficult decision on picking up their $14.8 million team option for Luke Kennard for 2024-25. Now, the Grizzlies can pick up Kennard’s option and make only a smaller move or two to dip under the tax line next season.

That’s big for a team that is hoping to bounce back in a major way next season, when Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and others will hopefully return to full health.

One of those “others” is Brandon Clarke. He’ll now take on a bigger role than ever with Adams out of the mix. Memphis should be in a position where they have enough to get by at the center position, even without the veteran center. Jaren Jackson Jr. has held down that spot for long stretches this season, and Clarke can also play the five. Santi Aldama has shown he’s ready for a bigger role too.

The increased flexibility around the tax should also give Memphis greater leeway to re-sign Xavier Tillman Sr. The Grizzlies love Tillman’s game and would be happy to keep him, especially with an increased role lined up in place of Adams.

Acquiring Oladipo won’t have any sort of on-court impact, even if the Grizzlies continue to be banged up and undermanned. It’s unlikely Oladipo will even play in a game for Memphis. The Grizzlies may retain Oladipo through the trade deadline, while they see if another deal emerges. If no other deal develops, Memphis may either work a buyout with Oladipo or could simply waive him.

Waiving Oladipo would free up a roster spot for the Grizzlies. That’s crucial because two-way player G.G. Jackson is looking increasingly like someone Memphis should get signed to a long-term deal.

Getting three second-round picks is also good the Grizzlies. They have been one of the league’s better draft-and-develop teams in the league. Even if none of the picks come in at the top part of the second-round, Memphis can use these picks to fill two-way spots, or to select draft-and-stash players.

 

Related:

NBA Trade Machine

NBA Trade Tracker

Keith SmithJanuary 29, 2024

We’re about a week-and-a-half out from the NBA trade deadline on February 8. Unlike the past couple of seasons, NBA teams are in more defined tiers this year. However, those tiers are a little different from the traditional ones of title contender, playoff team and tanking team.

What the Play-In Tournament has done is create a handful of different races. There are a handful of teams in each conference that are still competing for the top seed. But from there, we have a couple of other races to watch. Teams compete for homecourt advantage, but are also competing to simply be in the top-six in their conference to snag one of the assured playoff spots.

From there, several teams are fighting for positioning, or even just spots, in the Play-In Tournament in each conference. And then, of course, you have teams that are prioritizing ping-pong balls, if we put it kindly.

That makes each team’s approach to the trade deadline endlessly more fascinating. Today, we’ll cover where each Western Conference team seems to stand as far as being a buyer or seller, or either or neither, at the deadline. We’ll also give some thoughts on where we think each team should be at.

(You can find the Eastern Conference teams here.)

Dallas Mavericks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Dallas has slipped over the past couple of weeks into Play-In Tournament range. But the Mavs aren’t packing it in. A top-six spot is still very in play. Expect Dallas to continue to look for upgrades.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

A team led by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving shouldn’t be satisfied with just making the playoffs. The Mavs have the ability to go make a deal. If they can find another wing, or another playable big, Dallas should be on it.

Denver Nuggets

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Denver doesn’t really have the ability to do a lot. All of their tradable salary is attached to key rotation players. Maybe the Nuggets decide to move a couple of their kids, but that seems unlikely.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

The Nuggets are fine. They have what they need. If a big shakes free on the buyout market, it could be worth looking in to. Beyond that, Denver should just defend their title with what they have.

Golden State Warriors

Approach at the deadline: Either

It feels weird to even suggest the Warriors could be sellers. Yet, here we are. Golden State is looking at a lot of options. None of the long-time core is going anywhere, but they’re open to a conversation on everyone else.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Warriors are three games behind the Lakers and Jazz for a spot in the Play-In Tournament. And they’d have to climb the Rockets to get there too. They shouldn’t trade Stephen Curry, Draymond Green or Klay Thompson, unless the former asks for one or they get blown away with an offer for the latter two. They should also hang onto Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski. If a deal is there to rebalance the cap sheet or the rotation, Golden State should jump on it.

Houston Rockets

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Rockets are still looking to add to their roster. They have some draft capital that they can move, courtesy of the Brooklyn Nets. But Houston isn’t making short-term moves. They want players who can help now and moving forward.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Let’s call the Rockets long-term investors. They’re rumored to be interested in Robert Williams III of the Trail Blazers. That’s the kind of move that makes sense, because he won’t cost too much, and he can help next year and beyond. As long as they are careful, Houston is in great shape to keep moving this rebuild forward.

LA Clippers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

This one is somewhere between buying and doing nothing. The Clippers already made their big trade when they got James Harden. Adding Daniel Theis after his buyout shored up the frontcourt. They’re look at moving P.J. Tucker, especially if they can add a true power forward, but LA may just sit this one out.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

If there is a deal to send Tucker somewhere and bring back a ready-to-play 4/5, the Clippers should do it. That’s really all this roster needs. They’ve got everything else.

Los Angeles Lakers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Lakers are kind of in the same spot as last season, only not nearly as desperate. Last year, Los Angeles had to make a deal to save their season. This time around, the Lakers are looking for players who can aid in a playoff push, while also being long-term pieces.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

When you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing this well, you owe it to them and yourselves to make your roster better. But the Lakers have to be smart about how they do this. They aren’t close enough to a title to make an all-in move for just the rest of this season. If something comes along that can have an impact for a few seasons, Los Angeles should pursue it.

Memphis Grizzlies

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Memphis knows this is a lost season. They aren’t chasing any more upgrades. And the Grizzlies don’t like to trade players they’ve invested time in. It looks like a quiet deadline in Memphis.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

No, the Grizzlies shouldn’t be moving any of their big-name guys. Let them recover and get back at making a run next season. But Memphis has a logjam on the roster. It’s probably time to cut bait on a few of the guys they’ve drafted. If nothing else, the Grizzlies should clear a roster spot to sign G.G. Jackson to a long-term deal off his two-way contract.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Minnesota doesn’t have a lot to trade. Their draft picks are tied up from the Rudy Gobert trade. The bigger salaries all belong to rotation players. And the team is looking like it will be wildly expensive next season, when extensions kick in for Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. That impacts taking on salary beyond this season.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

This might be Minnesota’s last window to add talent. And they are contenders to come out of the West. Adding a veteran guard that can keep things moving when Mike Conley is off the floor should be a priority. And it shouldn’t be cost prohibitive to get that done, either.

New Orleans Pelicans

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Pelicans goal was to get out of the luxury tax before the deadline, and they did that by sending Kira Lewis Jr. out in the Pascal Siakam series of deals. Maybe New Orleans could look for a long-term answer at center, but it doesn’t seem likely they’ll find an upgrade on Jonas Valanciunas in-season.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

The thing the Pels need most is health, and they can’t trade for that. If a smaller deal comes up to add some extra draft capital for Naji Marshall or Jose Alvarado, it’s worth pursuing. Beyond that, let’s see how a playoff run goes before deciding the fate of this roster over the summer.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Thunder aren’t out on making deals, but they don’t seem overly active either. This isn’t a “Dump your bad contracts here!” situation anymore. The Thunder are good, and they are deep. They don’t seem quite ready to make that big move quite yet, though.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

OKC could win the West. They’re that good. They could use another big. One that could play with and behind Chet Holmgren would be ideal. Windows feel like they’ll be open forever for young teams, but things happen to cause them to close quicker than you expect. When you are this close, and you have all the assets the Thunder do, why not go for it?

Phoenix Suns

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Phoenix is still looking to add to their roster, but they are about out of tradable assets. Any player, aside from Nassir Little, that is on a non-minimum deal, is starting. The Suns are dangling Little and the handful of second-round picks they’ve acquired, but it’s unclear if that will get them anything.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

It’s worth trying to make another deal for Phoenix, because this team still has some holes, especially in the frontcourt. But the lack of assets is going to be a problem.

Portland Trail Blazers

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Blazers are listening on Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III. They don’t seem inclined to move Jerami Grant at this point. Moving Brogdon would have the double benefit of adding back some draft capital and/or young players, and freeing up minutes in a crowded backcourt.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Portland should move at least Brogdon at the deadline. He’s played well for them, but the team isn’t going anywhere, and they’ve got younger guards who need to play. If they can trade Williams for a decent return, that’s worth exploring too. He’s not a good fit with Deandre Ayton, and Ayton seems entrenched up front for now. If a team called with a huge offer for Anfernee Simons, that’s worth listening to too.

Sacramento Kings

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Kings know they are a good team, and they want to stay out of the Play-In Tournament. They’ve also got some tradable assets. But don’t expect Sacramento to get silly. The all-in move might not be there yet.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Adding another wing, ideally one who can really defend, would be huge for Sacramento. Beyond that, the Kings can afford to be patient and look for bigger moves this summer.

San Antonio Spurs

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

This Spurs section used to be the easiest to write. They never did in-season trades. That’s changed over the last few seasons. San Antonio is open to moving several of their vets, including Doug McDermott, Cedi Osman and Devonte’ Graham.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

If the Spurs can add young talent or draft picks by trading any of the vets mentioned above, they should do it. Also, keep an eye on Keldon Johnson. He’s been in primarily a bench role this season, and some have suggested he’s available via trade too.

Utah Jazz

Approach at the deadline: Either

This one might actually go both ways for Utah. Danny Ainge has run deadlines in the past where he’s moved off some players, while bringing in others to strengthen the team. The Jazz are looking for upgrades, but are open to moving some veterans too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

Expect Utah to be increasingly involved in trade talks over the next week or so. They could move Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, Kelly Olynyk or Talen Horton-Tucker in deals. Those deals won’t be giveaways though. Look for the Jazz to try to upgrade in terms of players who could help push them forward. But if Ainge has deals that are more future focused, he won’t let the allure of Play-In Tournament move him off his long-term plan.

 

Scott AllenJanuary 26, 2024
Keith SmithJanuary 25, 2024

We’re two weeks out from the NBA trade deadline on February 8. Unlike the past couple of seasons, NBA teams are in more defined tiers this year. However, those tiers are a little different from the traditional ones of title contender, playoff team and tanking team.

What the Play-In Tournament has done is create a handful of different races. There are a handful of teams in each conference that are still competing for the top seed. But from there, we have a couple of other races to watch. Teams compete for homecourt advantage, but are also competing to simply be in the top-six in their conference to snag one of the assured playoff spots.

From there, several teams are fighting for positioning, or even just spots, in the Play-In Tournament in each conference. And then, of course, you have teams that are prioritizing ping-pong balls, if we put it kindly.

That makes each team’s approach to the trade deadline endlessly more fascinating. Today, we’ll cover where each team seems to stand as far as being a buyer or seller, or either or neither, at the deadline. We’ll also give some thoughts on where we think each team should be at.

Atlanta Hawks

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Hawks are sellers, but not in the “Everything must go!” sense. Instead, Atlanta is looking to rebalance their roster, but more importantly their cap sheet.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers 

Atlanta has too many good players on long-term contracts to completely blow things up at the deadline. Instead, if they can shuttle out some of their bigger long-term deals for players who fit better, they’ll come out ahead in the long run.

Boston Celtics

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

This one comes with a caveat. The Celtics buyers like Bob Cratchit at Harrods of London. They might want to get someone great, but they don’t have much to work with. Such is life when your playoff rotation seems mostly set and all the big salaries are tied up in rotation players.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Boston should be looking to buy. Maybe they could snag a regular season (and maybe postseason) rotation player on the cheap (both in terms of contract and trade cost) from someone. Maybe they use their $6.2 million TPE to get a player. The Celtics do have a few tradable picks to work with. Ideally, they’d get someone who can help now and has a contract that carries another year or two. Otherwise, this is the same spot Boston will also be in next season. And probably the season after that too.

Brooklyn Nets

Approach at the deadline: Either

It doesn’t seem like the Nets are done fighting for a spot in the Play-In Tournament. But Brooklyn could pivot and try to move off some players to bring in future assets. Or they could try to bring in help to chase a postseason spot.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Nets don’t have to go crazy. Mikal Bridges, Nic Claxton and Cam Johnson should all be considered in the “you have to blow us away with an offer” category. But everyone else should be up for grabs. Sure, the Nets own picks are gone, but that’s a sunk cost. It’s not like Sean Marks hasn’t sailed these troubled waters before and come out just fine on the other side.

Charlotte Hornets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Charlotte already moved Terry Rozier III and that feels like it’s just the start. Keeping LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Mark Williams is smart. They are your building blocks. Everyone else is tradable.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Charlotte is going to keep trying, but moving some other players is harder than it seems. Miles Bridges can block any trade, because he’ll lose his Bird Rights if he’s dealt. And losing his Bird Rights might matter, because his salary is so low this season. Gordon Hayward is very available, but his contract is tough to move at $31.5 million. Kyle Lowry can be flipped, but only by himself. P.J. Washington should have good trade value, as he’s on a fair-value contract. Same with Nick Richards, but even more so. The real question: Will Ish Smith find his way to a 14th NBA team?

Chicago Bulls

Approach at the deadline: Either

Chicago might move Zach LaVine, but it won’t be in a “blowing it up” move. The Bulls will be looking to get back players who can help them in their eternal quest for the eighth seed.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Bulls should be selling. Where is this team going with this core this year and next? The Play-In Tournament? The eighth seed? Is any of that exciting anyone? Chicago should blow it up, but they won’t.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Cavs created some wiggle room under the luxury tax when Ricky Rubio took a buyout. But that also removed one of Cleveland’s more tradable salaries. They’re also just about out of draft picks to trade. Unless there is a surprise move coming with a core rotation player, the Cavaliers might more or less sit out the deadline.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither 

As stated above, the Cavaliers most tradable player now is probably Isaac Okoro, who has an expiring $8.9 million contract. He’s also Cleveland’s best perimeter defender. So, this is a tough spot to find workable trades. The buyout market is probably more of a thing for the Cavs.

Detroit Pistons

Approach at the deadline: Either

Let’s call Detroit short-term sellers and long-term buyers. The Pistons might move a few vets, but they’d also like to add players who can help them move things forward next season.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Let’s be clear: If the Pistons can find a deal for a guy who can help them be a better team next season and beyond, they should do it. We’re just a little doubtful that deal is coming by the trade deadline. Feels more like a summertime thing. Because of that, it’s time to move some of the veterans for draft picks and young players. Then, maximize the cap space this offseason, and not by eating bad contracts for middling draft picks.

Indiana Pacers

Approach at the deadline: Either

Indiana is in a good place. They don’t really need a whole lot, beyond Tyrese Haliburton getting healthy. If only they could trade for that! Otherwise, maybe Buddy Hield gets dealt, but he seems to be in a pretty good spot as a key player on a good team. And that means that the capital to buy with is less than ideal.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Presumably, the Pascal Siakam deal was done with an understanding that he’d re-sign this summer. That means Indiana is pretty well set with their core for the next few years. It’s time to supplement that group. If moving a handful of their mid-range contracts (T.J. McConnell, Jalen Smith, Obi Toppin) can bring in another rotation player for this year and beyond, the Pacers should jump on it.

Miami Heat

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Heat made their move with the Kyle Lowry for Terry Rozier III swap. They don’t have the tradable draft picks, nor the tradable salary to do much else.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

Maybe Miami could find another deal, but at what cost? All of their meaningful salary is tied up in key rotation guys. If there’s a shakeup coming, it’ll come in July, not February.

Milwaukee Bucks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Bucks want another perimeter player, ideally a 3&D option. But they don’t have much to trade. They are out of tradable draft capital, and their best matching salary belongs to rotation players.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

This is similar to the Celtics situation, but without the draft picks to trade. If Milwaukee does anything “big”, it’ll probably involve Pat Connaughton. And that’s only going to get the Bucks so much.

New York Knicks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Knicks are still looking for upgrades to their rotation. They’ve been linked to guards and wings, even after the OG Anunoby deal. The Knicks could also use another center, given injury issues. With the Evan Fournier contract and some drafts picks to dangle, New York could still make another big move.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

This isn’t the final window for New York to do something big. If they have a sense that a better deal might be there in the summer, they could pick up Fournier’s option and roll him over to an expiring contract asset through next season. Don’t expect any other big deals by the deadline, but don’t rule it out either.

Orlando Magic

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Magic are best termed as cautious buyers. Their history tells us they will do something. It could be a small move or it could be something big. Jeff Weltman has done something at each deadline that he’s run the team. This time, it’s starting to feel like a bigger upgrade could come, as this team is close to a playoff spot.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Orlando should be looking to buy. They have sizable expiring contracts in Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris, and a pseudo-expiring deal in Jonathan Isaac. Fultz and Isaac are health risks, and Harris is entrenched as a backup. If the Magic can make a move to solidify the rotation, especially at the guard spot, they should do it. This team is good, but not so good that a playoff spot is guaranteed. Now is the time to make a bigger move to lift the young kids onto the big stage.

Philadelphia 76ers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Daryl Morey is going to try to thread a difficult needle at the deadline: Add to the roster, while keeping some flexibility for the summer. Morey has been cautious to maintain the Sixers flexibility. He’s not going to let that go for a marginal upgrade. If there isn’t a big move to made, he’ll stay patient and do his work this offseason.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Philadelphia is a title contender. Joel Embiid is playing at an incredible level. Tyrese Maxey is really good too. And the 76ers have a bunch of tradable contracts and a few draft picks to trade too. The real question is if Morey can find a deal that makes sense for next few months, but also the next few years. Otherwise, don’t rule out a shuffle of expiring deals for expiring deals that brings the Sixers a rotation upgrade on the wing.

Toronto Raptors

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Raptors finally started the resetting process by trading OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. They won’t give away guys like Bruce Brown, Dennis Schroder, Gary Trent Jr., or a host of big men. But Masai Ujiri isn’t done resetting this roster either. Note: resetting vs rebuilding. There isn’t a full-scale teardown job. It’s a rest around Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Toronto is finally on a path. They aren’t out of the running for the Play-In Tournament, but they shouldn’t be chasing it either. In fact, if trading some of the vets listed above causes the Raptors to fall down around sixth in the draft order, they’d get to keep their pick this year. That shouldn’t be considered a priority, but let’s call it a happy circumstance.

Washington Wizards

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Washington finally kicked off a rebuild last offseason. They can keep that moving forward by trading more of their veteran players and leaning even further into a youth movement. That seems to be the Wizards approach.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

It’s been a long time coming, but the Wizards are finally here. No more chasing the eighth seed. If they can find the right moves for guys like Kyle Kuzma, Tyus Jones, Daniel Gafford and maybe even Jordan Poole, Washington should jump on them. Taking on Marvin Bagley’s contract for a couple of second-round picks signaled this is a multi-year rebuild. Lean into that and keep churning the roster in Washington.

 

Keith SmithJanuary 23, 2024

2024 NBA trade season just keeps on spinning. This time around, it was the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat swapping veteran guards in a move that makes sense for both franchises.

Here are the particulars:

Charlotte Hornets acquire: Kyle Lowry, lottery-protected 2027 Heat first-round pick

Miami Heat acquire: Terry Rozier III

This is a fun trade between two division rivals. Let’s dive in!

Miami Heat

Incoming salary: $23.3 million in 2023-24

  • Terry Rozier III (PG/SG, three years, $74.8 million, $23.3 million in 2023-24)

Outgoing salary: $29.7 million in 2023-24

The Miami Heat’s season hasn’t gone exactly as hoped for. The Heat haven’t been bad, but they are in a battle to stay in the top-six and out of the Play-In Tournament. One issue for Miami has been their guard play.

That’s solved by acquiring Terry Rozier III.

Rozier is having the best season of his nine-year NBA career. He’s averaging a career-high 23.2 points and 6.6 assist per game. And they aren’t empty stats either, as Rozier has been efficient this season. He’s shot 45.9% from the field and 35.8% from behind the arc. That’s even more impressive when you factor in that he’s spent long stretches of the season as Charlotte’s best on-ball creator.

On defense. Rozier has slipped some from his days with the Boston Celtics. He’s no longer the bulldog defender he was in Boston, but Rozier is better than he’s showed with Charlotte. He should fit in nicely with the Heat, where having good defenders around him, and something to play for, will help him lift his game.

Losing Lowry is probably more of a shock to the system than it is an on-court impact. Lowry has continued a four-year trend of taking fewer shots than the season before. He’s around his career shooting percentages from the field and on three-pointers, but creating shots has become a challenge. He’s no longer able to create good shots for himself, and that has also limited his ability to create good looks for his teammates.

Lowry’s defense has also slipped considerably. He’s not quick enough to keep up with the better guards, so he gets by on positioning, guile and veteran know-how. But that only goes so far, especially with the Heat dreaming about making another deep playoff run. Rozier will be an upgrade over Lowry on defense, even in his diminished state.

On the cap sheet, Miami is taking on a decent chunk of change long-term. The Heat moved off almost $6.5 million for this season. That gets Miami within about $4.1 million of dropping below the first tax apron. 

That’s important if the Heat wanted get involved on the buyout market. Under the new CBA, teams that are above the apron are prohibited from signing buyout players who made more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE on their previous contract.

Long-term, Miami adds $24.9 million for Rozier for 2024-25 and $26.6 million for 2025-26. The final season of Rozier’s deal is partially guaranteed for nearly the full amount. That season also becomes fully guaranteed if Rozier’s team (now the Heat) makes the second round of the playoffs in either 2024 or 2025, and if Rozier appears in at least 70 games. Essentially, consider both of Rozier’s seasons beyond this one to be fully guaranteed.

That’s not really a big concern for the Heat. Miami projects to be well over the cap for the next two seasons. Acquiring Rozier will have the Heat dancing around the tax apron again next season, but that’s something the Miami front office has become used to.

For what it’s worth, the Heat also created a $6.5 million Traded Player Exception (TPE) in this deal. Miami could use that TPE to absorb a smaller-salaried player ahead of the trade deadline.

Charlotte Hornets

Incoming salary: $29.7 million in 2023-24

Outgoing salary: $23.3 million in 2023-24

  • Terry Rozier III (PG/SG, three years, $74.8 million, $23.3 million in 2023-24)

This trade was about creating future flexibility for the Hornets. It’s been reported that Kyle Lowry and Charlotte won’t agree to an immediate buyout. The Hornets will look to trade Lowry in an addition deal, as they look to continue to add to their asset base.

It’s also been reported that the Hornets are open to moving other players, as they look for draft picks and increased flexibility ahead of the 2024 offseason. It’s assumed that the only off-limits players on Charlotte’s roster are LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Mark Williams. Everyone else is likely available for the right price.

On the court, this trade will have little impact for the Hornets. They are a bad team, and will continue to be so. What this does in the immediate is free up a bit of a logjam when everyone is healthy. For however long they are all on the roster, Charlotte now has starting spots and minutes for all of their guards and wings. To that end, it will be somewhat of a surprise if Lowry suits up for the Hornets before the trade deadline, if ever.

On the cap sheet, the Hornets have freed up a considerable amount of flexibility. Pre-trade, Charlotte was projected to have about $21.7 million in cap space this offseason. Now, the Hornets project to have around $45.5 million in cap space this summer.

No, Charlotte isn’t a prime free agent destination. But cap space can be used to acquire players via trade, or to make the trade process far easier. The Hornets could also take a longer-term approach and “rent out” some cap space in exchange for draft picks and/or young players.

Mostly, the Hornets have created a lot of flexibility for a team that has been basically capped out over the last few seasons. If Charlotte continues to move veteran players like Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington and others, they’ll have a chance to rebuild their roster around Ball, Miller, Williams and a bunch of draft picks and young players.

The key? The Hornets can’t get impatient this time around. They were in cap jail for years, got free and immediately signed Hayward to a questionable contract. If Charlotte sells off their vets, they can’t turn around and sign Tier C free agents to long-term, big-money contracts. Stay the course, build around your cornerstones and find values through your signings and trades. That’s the winning playbook for a small market team. And the Hornets are now set up to be on their way.

Keith SmithJanuary 17, 2024

NBA trade season is off to a raucous start! The upstart Indiana Pacers made a major move by acquiring Pascal Siakam from the Toronto Raptors. This move should put Indiana firmly in the mix for homecourt advantage in the Eastern Conference playoffs, after a three-year playoff drought. At the end of December, Toronto had traded OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickly. Now, Masai Ujiri and his front office staff are continuing the reshaping of the Raptors roster around Scottie Barnes. This deal also includes the New Orleans Pelicans, as they have made a tax-avoidance trade. In actuality, this will end up being two separate trades.

Trade 1:
Indiana Pacers acquire: Kira Lewis Jr., least favorable 2024 second-round pick from the Pelicans or Bulls
New Orleans Pelicans acquire: Cash Considerations

Trade 2:
Indiana Pacers acquire: Pascal Siakam
Toronto Raptors acquire: Bruce Brown, Kira Lewis Jr., Jordan Nwora, 2024 Pacers first-round pick, least favorable 2024 first-round pick from the Rockets (5-30), Clippers, Thunder or Jazz (11-30), 2026 Pacers first-round pick

Since the Pacers are acquiring Lewis with cap space, they will be able to reaggregate him in the trade to the Raptors immediately. Let’s dive into what it these trades mean for each team!

Indiana Pacers

Incoming salary: $37.9 million in 2023-24

Outgoing salary: $30.7 million in 2023-24

The Pacers are off to a 23-17 start and looking to break a three-year streak of missing the playoffs. With Pascal Siakam in the fold, Indiana can start thinking even bigger. Indiana is in a battle with the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks, Miam Heat and Orlando Magic for the fourth through eighth position in the Eastern Conference. This trade should put the Pacers near the top of that group, which would mean homecourt advantage.

All season long, the Pacers have made it work at the power forward position. They tried Obi Toppin for 28 games, but it never quite fit perfectly. Indiana then reverted back to the four-smalls around Myles Turner looks they had some success with last year, but that isn’t ideal either. In recent weeks, Jalen Smith has stepped in as the second big next to Turner, but that look leaves Pacers less versatile than they want. Enter Siakam. And not just for the second half of this season, either.

There’s already been reporting that Siakam is thrilled with the trade to Indiana and will look to re-sign with the Pacers this offseason. Let’s pause from the on-court analysis to take a look at what Siakam’s next contract could look like. Because of this trade, Siakam is limited to extending with Indiana for no more than is allowable by the extend-and-trade rules. That would look like this:

  • 2024-25: $39,788,078
  • 2025-26: $41,777,482
  • Total: two years, $81,565,560

In the summer, the Pacers will have full Bird Rights for Siakam. That means they’ll be able to offer him a five-year max deal that looks like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,600,000
  • 2025-26: $46,008,000
  • 2026-27: $49,416,000
  • 2027-28: $52,824,000
  • 2028-29: $56,232,000
  • Total: five years, $247,080,000

That’s the 30% of the cap maximum with 8% raises. If Siakam was to leave for another team, his max deal would look like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,600,000
  • 2025-26: $44,730,000
  • 2026-27: $46,860,000
  • 2027-28: $48,990,000
  • Total: four years, $183,180,000

That’s starting at the same 30% of the cap maximum, but with 5% raises and capped at a four-year deal.

 

The extension option feels a bit light for Siakam, especially in terms of years. The full max seems a bit much for the Pacers. The guess here is that he’ll get some form of four-year deal that pays him in the range of $180 to $190 million. That gets Siakam close to, or more than, the max he could get from another team, but without either side having to lock into a full maximum contract.

One important note: Even if Siakam makes All-NBA this season, he’s no longer eligible for a Designated Veteran Contract, which would start at 35% of the salary cap. A player can only get a Designated contract from the team that drafted them, or a team that acquired them while still on their rookie contract.

Let’s get back to the on-court part of this trade for the Pacers. Indiana now has their power forward of the present and, presumably, the future. Siakam will be a major upgrade over any of the options the Pacers have used over the last two seasons. His three-point shooting has regressed back to the low 30% range over the past two seasons, but Siakam has also limited his attempts from distance too.

As a scorer, Siakam takes over 59% of his shots in/around the paint, with a healthy 28% of them coming right at the rim. He’s also shooting a robust 76.8% at the rim this year. Of the Pacers who attempt more than four field goals per game, no one matches Siakam’s combination of volume and efficiency inside.

Siakam also remains a solid rebounder, which will help an Indiana team that ranks in the bottom-five of the NBA in defensive rebounding. He’s also a good transition player, which fits in the Pacers high-octane offense. And Siakam is a good shot-creator and passer too.

The biggest upgrade might be on defense. Prior to this trade, Indiana didn’t have a four that could defend both on the perimeter and the interior. While Siakam isn’t the shot-blocker he was in his first few seasons, he’s still a solid on-ball and help defender. While no one is stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo or Joel Embiid, Siakam can at least take his turn making them work. That will free up Myles Turner to roam as a help defender, which is where he really excels. In addition, Siakam is a very good double-teamer, as he uses his length and quickness to make it hard for opponents to find passing outlets.

The Pacers lose some perimeter defense in this deal with Bruce Brown headed to Toronto. But it’s not a massive loss. Indiana still has Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard who can pick up opposing ballhandlers on the wing. On offense, Brown wasn’t shooting as well as the last couple of seasons, and his playmaking was a bit muted in his spot-up role. That means he should be replaceable for the Pacers.

Essentially, Brown’s contract accomplished a few things. First, it helped Indiana to get to the salary floor, which all teams have to be at by the start of the season under the new CBA. Second, it was the exact type of tradable salary the Pacers envisioned it would be if a big move came their way. And last, but not least, Brown is making more money in this one season than he had made his first five years of his career combined.

Jordan Nwora hasn’t been able to lock down a consistent rotation role in his four NBA seasons. He’s a talented shooter and scorer, but Nwora doesn’t offer much else. Maybe he’s a late-bloomer, but it wasn’t going to happen in Indiana.

As for the draft picks…Yes, it’s a significant investment for a pending free agent. But these aren’t premium draft picks, at least not right now. This season’s Pacers pick should land around the early-to-mid 20s. The other 2024 pick is destined to be in the late-20s, pending where the Thunder or Clippers finish in the standings. The 2026 first-rounder Indiana is sending Toronto is more of an unknown, but a team built around a prime Tyrese Haliburton should be able to stay a playoff team.

If Siakam walks, it’ll sting for Indiana for sure. But they didn’t send everything that wasn’t tied down to Toronto here. They made a significant investment in a player who can lift them this season, and likely for the next few years, as well. If it doesn’t work out, the Pacers are out a couple of picks, but still have tremendous cap flexibility moving forward.

Toronto Raptors

Incoming salary: $30.7 million in 2023-24

Outgoing salary: $37.9 million in 2023-24

OG Anunoby (who didn’t play in that title run) and Pascal Siakam were the last links to the 2019 champs. That alone signals how much of a reset this is for the Raptors. And make no mistake, this is reset, not a rebuild.

Toronto created an incredible amount of future flexibility for themselves, while gaining some long-term assets in terms of players and draft picks in their two recent trades. This deal, in particular, is likely to deliver more on the cap sheet and in the draft pick vault than on the court.

Sure, Bruce Brown could be a nice player for Toronto. But the Raptors already have a pretty crowded wing rotation. In fact, it’s so crowed that it’d a surprise to see both Brown and Gary Trent Jr. still in Toronto after the trade deadline. Brown can’t be reaggregated with any other players in a pre-deadline move, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have trade value all on his own. As a 3&D wing, who can also handle it some and pass, Brown has a lot of value. It’s likely Toronto is already getting calls to see what it will take to get him.

Lewis and Nwora are flyers as the Raptors reset the rest of this season. It’s not clear how much either will play, as Lewis is behind both Immanual Quickley and Dennis Schroder at point guard and Nwora is behind several other wings and forwards. But if subsequent trades free up playing time, Lewis or Nwora could pop with an increased opportunity.

However, this trade was as much about picking up some additional draft picks, which give Toronto replacements for the ones they sent to San Antonio in the Jakob Poeltl trade. None looks like a truly prime pick, but you never know what will happen, especially a couple of years out.

This trade could have the added benefit of makin Toronto’s own pick better for this year. As it stands right now, the Raptors on the cusp of keeping their own 2024 first-round pick, as it’s top-6 protected. The chances of the Raptors “catching” the Portland Trail Blazers or Charlotte Hornets are pretty low, but again, you never know.

As for the cap sheet, the Raptors books are now pretty clean. They can reasonably create up to $31.5 million in cap space for the upcoming offseason. That would mean clearing the decks of all but their guaranteed salaries, plus cap holds for Quickley and their first-round picks. But that’s not really a big deal, as none of the Raptors pending free agents seem overly likely to return.

Overall, Toronto has set themselves up to build around a new core of Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and whatever they do with their newfound flexibility. That’s why this is a reset and not a rebuild.

New Orleans Pelicans

Incoming salary: None
Outgoing salary: $5.7 million in 2023-24

This trade is pretty simple for New Orleans. The Pelicans were $2.9 million over the luxury tax line for this season. The Pelicans have never paid the tax in franchise history. This year wasn’t going to be the first. That meant finding a trade partner to move some salary too, with Lewis always being the most likely candidate. That’s in part due to moving only his salary being enough to dodge the tax, while also creating a little wiggle room for future transactions. It’s also in part due to Lewis not being a part of the rotation in New Orleans, while being a pending free agent this summer.

The Pelicans will have 14 days to sign a 14th player to a standard contract. That’ll eat into a little bit of the wiggle room they’ve just created. The guesses here for how New Orleans fills that spot are:

  • Another trade. This one seems a bit less likely, but could be on the table.
  • Converting Matt Ryan to a standard contract. This is possible. The Pelicans like Ryan quite a bit and could get him on a multi-year deal by using part of their remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE.
  • Converting Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to a standard contract. Less likely than Ryan, but it would work the same way.
  • Signing a player, or players, to 10-Day contracts. This seems most likely, especially in the immediate.
  • Signing a player, or players, for the rest of the season. This is also possible, if there is a free agent available that New Orleans feels like they have to get. This could also come after the team undergoes a series of 10-Day “tryouts”, if you will.

Overall, for the cost of one second-round pick, the Pelicans got out of the tax. That’s probably a swing of somewhere between $17 and $20 million to the New Orleans ownership group. That’s big, and will hopefully be remembered when the team has to re-sign some key players down the line.

Notes

As of the writing of this article, the following items hadn’t been fully confirmed:

  • Who the Indiana Pacers are waiving to complete the Kira Lewis Jr. acquisition. Even thought Indiana is trading Lewis to the Raptors, they have to create a roster spot for him first. It’s likely that spot will be created by waiving James Johnson, but this has not been confirmed as of yet. UPDATE: The Pacers chose to waive James Johnson.
  • Who the Toronto Raptors are waiving to complete the 3-for-1 trade. Toronto has one open roster spot, but will need to free up an additional spot to bring in Bruce Brown, Kira Lewis Jr. and Jordan Nwora. It’s likely that spot will be created by waiving Garrett Temple, but this has not been confirmed as of yet. UPDATE: The Raptors chose to waive Christian Koloko.
  • Created Traded Player Exceptions. The Raptors should create a TPE of $7.2 million for Pascal Siakam in this trade. The Pelicans should create a TPE of $5.7 million for Kira Lewis Jr. in this trade. UPDATE: The Raptors chose to use part of the Precious Achiuwa TPE to bring in Jordan Nwora. This created a $10.2 million TPE for Pascal Siakam. The Pelicans did create a $5.7M TPE for Kira Lewis Jr.
Keith SmithJanuary 17, 2024

The 2024 NBA trade deadline is about one month away.  So far, we’ve seen three in-season trades. The Philadelphia 76ers traded James Harden to the LA Clippers just a few days into the season. The Toronto Raptors traded OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks in a deal that saw RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley head to Toronto. And last week, the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards hooked up in a salary-clearing trade for the Pistons.

Two weeks or so out from deadline day is when things usually start to pick up. Teams that insisted on multiple first-round picks for their players come down to a single first-round pick, while their partners in trades come up from offering a couple of second-rounders to offering that single first-rounder. As desperation increases, so does reasonability in trade talks.

Here’s what each of the 30 NBA teams are working with to trade as we sit a month from the deadline.

Atlanta Hawks

Cap/Tax Picture: $9.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $23.0 million (John Collins)

Draft Pick Situation: Hawks owe two future firsts (2025 and 2027) to the Spurs, as well as a swap in 2026. Atlanta is owed a first-round pick from Sacramento, which should come this year or next. Hawks have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dejounte Murray or Saddiq Bey. If Atlanta goes for a big reset, Murray will be traded. If it’s a smaller deal, then it’ll be Bey.

Boston Celtics

Cap/Tax Picture: $5.6 million over the second tax apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.2 million (Grant Williams)

Draft Pick Situation: Boston owes a 2029 first to Portland. They also have a top-1 protected swap with the Spurs in 2028. Boston has at least eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Take your pick of Dalano Banton, Svi Mykhailiuk or Lamar Stevens. All are on minimum deals, and that’s probably how the Celtics are working at this deadline. All of their significant salary is tied up in key players who aren’t getting traded.

Brooklyn Nets

Cap/Tax Picture: $8 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $19.9 million (Joe Harris), $18.1 million (Kevin Durant), $6.8 million Patty Mills, $4.5 million (Kyrie Irving)

Draft Pick Situation: Sean Marks refilled his draft pick coffers when he traded away James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. The Nets still owe two of their own picks to the Rockets, along with a couple of swaps. But Brooklyn has added five extra first-round picks. The Nets have at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Royce O’Neale. He has the easiest deal to move at $9.5 million. Maybe Brooklyn goes bigger, but even then, O’Neale is probably a part of any trade.

Charlotte Hornets

Cap/Tax Picture: $29.8 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Hornets owe a protected first-rounder to the Spurs, but own all the rest of their own first-round picks. Charlotte has at least nine tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Miles Bridges. Bridges’ signing the one-year qualifying offer was a signal this is probably a short-term relationship between him and the Hornets. If a team can get past the off-court issues, Bridges won’t cost all that much in trade. Gordon Hayward would be a strong second choice here, but his contract may prove to be too large to move in-season.

Chicago Bulls

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $10.2 million (Lonzo Ball – Disabled Player Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: Bulls owe a protected first-round picks to San Antonio in the coming years. Chicago doesn’t have a fully clear first-rounder until 2028. Chicago has a lottery-protected first owed to them from the Trail Blazers. The Bulls also have two truly tradable second-round pick, as others all have conditions attached.

Most Likely to be Traded: Zach LaVine. The star guard has already asked for a trade, and he’s back from injury now. It’s a massive contract to move, but feels like Chicago will eventually find a taker from a playoff team that is desperate for some scoring.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Cleveland owes three future first-round picks to the Jazz, as well as two years of swap rights to Utah. The Cavs have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Isaac Okoro. There isn’t a great choice here, after Ricky Rubio took a contract buyout. Okoro is in the final year of his contract, so maybe Cleveland looks to move him before he hits restricted free agency in July. As for Donovan Mitchell…that’ll be a summer thing, if even then.

Dallas Mavericks

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.9 million (Davis Bertans)

Draft Pick Situation: Dallas owes a first to New York that should convey this season. The Mavericks also owe a pick to Brooklyn in 2029, and the Spurs have swap rights in 2030. Dallas has at least three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Tim Hardaway Jr. or Richaun Holmes. The Mavs don’t have any large expiring contracts, so that means moving Hardaway or Holmes is the best path toward and upgrade, likely combined with a draft pick or two.

Denver Nuggets

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.7 million under the second tax apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Denver owes future first-round picks to Orlando and Oklahoma City. They won’t be able to trade a first-round pick at this deadline. The Nuggets have at least three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Reggie Jackson. There isn’t a great choice for Denver. They like and need their kids, because they are a source of production on value contracts. Jackson waived his no-trade clause when he re-signed, but the Nuggets seem more like to stand pat at the deadline.

Detroit Pistons

Cap/Tax Picture: $27.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Detroit owes a heavily protected first to New York that may not convey for at least a couple of seasons. The Pistons have at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Bojan Bogdanovic or Alec Burks. We find ourselves here again. Detroit is the worst team in the NBA. They don’t really need these two veteran wings, but they keep hanging onto them. Maybe this is year?

Golden State Warriors

Cap/Tax Picture: $26.6 million over the second tax apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Warriors owe a 2024 top-4 protected first-round pick to the Trail Blazers (via the Grizzlies and Celtics). Golden State also owes the Wizards a top-20 protected first-round pick in 2030. The Warriors have at least three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Chris Paul. Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody have agitated about playing time recently, but Paul’s pseudo-expiring $30.8 million contract is a huge trade chip. This is also the last season the Warriors can take on money in a trade. Maybe they take one more big swing at fortifying their title core.

Houston Rockets

Cap/Tax Picture: $22.0 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.5 million (Kevin Porter Jr.)

Draft Pick Situation: Houston has a couple of first-rounders coming from Brooklyn. They also owe two protected picks to Oklahoma City, and there are swap rights in the mix too. The Rockets should have at least at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Victor Oladipo. There’s little to no chance Oladipo ever suits up in this second run through Houston. His contract was kept specifically as a tradable asset.

Indiana Pacers

Cap/Tax Picture: $8.3 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Pacers also have all of their own first-round picks, plus an additional 2024 pick that will likely be in the mid-to-late 20s. Indiana has at least 10 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Bruce Brown or Buddy Hield. This one is semi-easy. Hield asked for a trade on the eve of the season, but has continued to play without causing even the smallest stir. Brown and Hield are also the largest expiring contracts (Brown has a 2024-25 team option) the Pacers will probably put in play via trade. If they make a big move, it’s highly likely Brown and/or Hield will be involved.

LA Clippers

Cap/Tax Picture: $17.3 million over the second tax apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Clippers owe two more first-round picks to the Thunder (or 76ers), plus two years of swap rights. They also an additional first-round pick, plus a potential swap to the 76ers. LA has at least three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: P.J. Tucker. The Clippers haven’t used Tucker as a rotation player since he came over in the James Harden trade. If they make a deal to further fortify their rotation, he’s likely to be involved.

Los Angeles Lakers

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.3 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Los Angeles owes New Orleans first-round pick in either 2024 or 2025, pending a Pelicans potential deferment. The Lakers owe a top-4 protected first to Utah in 2027. That means they can really only trade their 2029 first-round pick. Los Angeles has five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: D’Angelo Russell. When Russell waived his right to block a trade by signing a 1+1 deal with the Lakers last summer, it set him up to be trade. His $17.3 million contract is likely to be the best piece of salary-matching Los Angeles has in a trade.

Memphis Grizzlies

Cap/Tax Picture: $5.8 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.4 million (Ja Morant – DPE (pending approval)), $7.4 million (Dillon Brooks), $6.3 million (Steven Adams – DPE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Grizzlies have all of their own first-round picks, including favorable swap rights on two picks in 2024 and 2020. Memphis has two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Luke Kennard or John Konchar. This one is a little messy, because the wheels have really come off the season for Memphis due to several injuries. If they want to add a younger player, or some draft capital, Kennard could be moved. A smaller deal for Konchar could be likely to bring back a second-round pick or a young player who has washed out elsewhere.

Miami Heat

Cap/Tax Picture: $28,840 under second tax apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.5 million (Victor Oladipo), $7.2 million (Max Strus), $4.7 million (Dewayne Dedmon)

Draft Pick Situation: The Heat owe one lottery-protected first to the Thunder, but own all of their other first-round picks. The Heat have at least two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. This might be cheating, but unless Miami is making a big move, they probably aren’t trading anyone. And big moves are usually something the Heat save for the summer. 

Milwaukee Bucks

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.1 million over the second tax apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Bucks don’t own any of their own first-round picks outright. From 2024 through 2027, they are controlled by the Pelicans. From 2028 through 2030 they are controlled by the Trail Blazers. Milwaukee has at least two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. The Bucks have no real tradable salary at the deadline. Any significant salary belongs to rotation players. And the smaller salaries aren’t enough to get Milwaukee any real upgrades. They’ll probably stand pat at the deadline.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Cap/Tax Picture: $2.4 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.7 million (D’Angelo Russell)

Draft Pick Situation: Minnesota owes Utah three future first-round picks (and one swap), only one of which is lightly protected. Because of the Stepien Rule, the Wolves can’t deal another first. The Timberwolves have four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Shake Milton. The Wolves don’t have a lot of tradable salary that isn’t attached to rotation players. Milton’s $5 million could be a deal to get Minnesota an additional rotation player, as Milton hasn’t filled the bench-scoring role the Wolves had in mind for him.

New Orleans Pelicans

Cap/Tax Picture: $2.9 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans own all of their own first-round picks and two extra first-rounders courtesy of the Lakers and Bucks. They also have swap rights on two other years with Milwaukee too. New Orleans has at least two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Kira Lewis Jr. The Pelicans have never paid the tax in franchise history. It’s highly unlikely they’ll break that streak this season. Look for New Orleans to move Lewis in a tax-avoidance trade, probably using a second-round pick to do so.

New York Knicks

Cap/Tax Picture: $6.0 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.8 million (Obi Toppin), $5.2 million (RJ Barrett)

Draft Pick Situation: The Knicks own all of their own first-round picks. They have some extra picks coming their way, but all are encumbered with protections. The most likely picks New York will see will come from Dallas in 2024 and Milwaukee in 2025. It’s unclear if Detroit or Washington will ever convey first-rounders to New York, but they could move them to another team to wait out. The Knicks have at least nine tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Evan Fournier. If New York makes another big trade before the deadline, Evan Fournier and his $18.8 million pseudo-expiring contract will be involved. If Fournier isn’t traded ahead of the deadline, don’t be surprised if the Knicks pick up their $19 million team option for next season, simply to keep him as a tradable salary for 2024-25.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Cap/Tax Picture: $12.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Oklahoma City has seven extra first-round picks headed their way from a combination of the Rockets, Clippers, Jazz, Heat, 76ers and Nuggets. In addition, the Thunder have all of their own first-round picks, or can swap them for better picks in several years. Oklahoma City has at least 21 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Davis Bertans or Tre Mann, Aleksej Pokusevski. Bertans will be involved if the Thunder are making a big move. If it’s a smaller move, Tre Mann or Aleksej Pokusevski could be traded. None are regular rotation players and none have a place in Oklahoma City long-term either.

Orlando Magic

Cap/Tax Picture: $34.3 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Magic have an extra first coming from the Nuggets, in addition to all of their own first-round picks. Orlando has at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Chuma Okeke. We could have picked someone flashier like Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris or Jonathan Isaac, which would indicate a big trade. But something smaller like moving Okeke seems to be more likely, if not quite as fun.

Philadelphia 76ers

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.3 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.8 million (James Harden)

Draft Pick Situation: The Sixers first-round draft picks in the closer-in years are tied up because they owe protected picks to both the Thunder and Nets. In 2028, Philadelphia picks up an extra pick from the LA Clippers, and they have their own picks in 2029 (can swap with LAC 4-30) and 2030. The 76ers have at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Robert Covington/Marcus Morris or Furkan Korkmaz. The former pairing will likely be involved if the Sixers pull the trigger on a big trade before the deadline. They combine for over $28.8 million in outgoing salary. If Philadelphia is delaying the big moves to the summer, then look for Furkan Korkmaz to get moved in a tax-avoidance trade.

Phoenix Suns

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.9 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.5 million (Cameron Payne), $4.9 million (Dario Saric)

Draft Pick Situation: Phoenix’s draft pick situation is unique and a mess. Every Suns first-round pick is either owed to another team or tied up in complicated swap rights. Phoenix has at least six tradable second-round picks, but it cost them swap rights for several years of first-round picks to acquire them.

Most Likely to be Traded: Nassir Little. There isn’t a great choice for the Suns. Nine players are on minimum contracts and five non-minimum salaries are tied to starters. That leaves Little as the only non-minimum salary that belongs to a non-starter. That makes him the most tradable guy.

Portland Trail Blazers

Cap/Tax Picture: $5.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $8.8 million (Damian Lillard), $8.3 million (Gary Payton II)

Draft Pick Situation: Portland owes a lottery-protected pick to Chicago. Those protections carry out through 2028, but the pick should likely convey before then, if Portland’s rebuild goes the way they hope. The Trail Blazers have extra first-round picks coming from the Warriors, Bucks and Celtics, plus swap rights in two years with the Bucks. The Blazers have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Malcolm Brogdon. Portland is flush with younger guards and Brogdon could return younger players and/or draft picks to add to the rebuilding stash. If, for some reason, Brogdon isn’t traded by the deadline, look for a deal to come over the summer.

Sacramento Kings

Cap/Tax Picture: $18.0 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Kings owe a protected first-round pick to the Hawks, but own the remainder of their own first-rounders. Sacramento has at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Davion Mitchell. Sacramento is looking for upgrades and they’ve reportedly offered Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter to teams. But that’s going to be in a pretty big trade. Mitchell has fallen out of the rotation. So, if he’s not part of a bigger deal, the Kings could move him in a smaller deal to get him to a place where he can play.

San Antonio Spurs

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Spurs own all of their own first-round picks. They have extra protected firsts coming from the Hornets, Raptors and Bulls. They also own two unprotected Hawks first-round picks, and swap rights in separate years with Atlanta, Boston and Dallas. San Antonio has at least 16 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Doug McDermott or Cedi Osman. Both veteran players are reportedly on the market. Neither will net a huge return for the Spurs, but could see San Antonio pick up a couple of extra second-round picks.

Toronto Raptors

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.4 million (Precious Achiuwa)

Draft Pick Situation: Toronto owes a protected first-round pick to San Antonio, but owns all the rest of their own first-rounders. The Raptors have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Pascal Siakam. It seems almost inevitable at this point that Siakam is getting moved. The real question: Who else follows him out the door?

Utah Jazz

Cap/Tax Picture: $29.3 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Utah owes one protected pick to Oklahoma City. Beyond that, the Jazz have eight additional first-rounders coming their way, mostly from the Cavaliers, Lakers and Timberwolves. Utah has two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Talen Horton-Tucker. If the Jazz do a big deal to add to what has been a surprisingly good team, Horton-Tucker will probably be a part of it. If Utah does some rebalancing and asset-collecting, keep an eye on Kelly Olynyk getting moved.

Washington Wizards

Cap/Tax Picture: $21.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.4 million (Kristaps Porzingis), $9.8 million (Monte Morris), $5.4 million (Bradley Beal), $3.5M (Mike Musala)

Draft Pick Situation: The Wizards owe a protected first-round pick to the Knicks, but own all of their other first-rounders. They also have the ability to swap several years of picks with the Suns, plus they own a top-20 protected Warriors pick in 2030. Washington as has least 14 tradable second-round picks. 

Most Likely to be Traded: Take your pick. The Wizards are about six months into a long-awaited rebuild. They could trade just about anyone, minus Deni Avdija, Bilal Coulibaly and maybe Corey Kispert. The most likely guys are Tyus Jones or Delon Wright, but don’t be surprised if multiple Wizards get moved.

 

Keith SmithJanuary 14, 2024

NBA trade season is picking up about three-and-a-half weeks out from the trade deadline. The Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards linked up on a small, but still important deal. Both sides accomplished different things in the deal, but it gives us some insight into the direction both franchises are headed in.

Here are the particulars:

Both the Pistons and Wizards are bottom-dwellers in the Eastern Conference. It’s likely this trade will have very little on-court impact for either team, at least for the remainder of this season. But this trade sets both up for further moves down the line. Let’s dive in!

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: $10.3 million in 2023-24

Outgoing salary: $14.3 million in 2023-24

The Pistons primary objective in this trade was clearing out additional cap space for the 2024 offseason.

Mission accomplished.

Detroit shed the only salary that extends beyond this season in this deal by moving Marvin Bagley III’s $12.5 million salary to Washington. That puts either of the following scenarios in play (without factoring in any other potential trades):

  • $50.3 million in cap space – keeping Bojan Bogdanovic on the books for next season

Or

  • $66.1 million in cap space – eating a $2 million dead money cap hit for Bogdanovic for next season

That’s what this trade was about for Detroit. They now have the most projected cap space in the NBA in either scenario. The question now becomes: How do the Pistons use that cap space?

During the Troy Weaver era, Detroit has largely used their cap space to eat undesirable salary from other teams while picking up fairly middling assets. Just this past offseason, the Pistons used most of their cap space to take on the contracts of Joe Harris and Monte Morris in salary-clearing deals for the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards, respectively. The Pistons return for eating nearly $30 million in salary in those deals? Three second-round picks.

However, things seem to be pointing in a different direction for Detroit now. Whether it’s impatience or trying to take advantage of an uncertain marketplace, the Pistons seem poised to add players who will actually be expected to deliver on the court. And it’s probably going to happen in the next six months between now and the February 8 trade deadline or this summer.

With somewhere between $50 and $66 million to spend next summer, the Pistons are in play to either sign free agents or make trades in July. Detroit could also do a form of “pre-agency” and make a trade now that uses up some of their future flexibility.

Being realistic, there isn’t a trade the Pistons could make before the deadline that would fix this current season. Things are too far gone for that. But Weaver could make a deal, or two or three, that sets Detroit up for the future with win-now (now being 2024-25, of course!) players. The key? Don’t get silly with trading assets, whether they be young players or future draft picks. That’s true leading up to the deadline or this summer.

The Pistons still have plenty of matching salary they can send out in trades. Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Monte Morris and James Wiseman are over $72 million in easily-tradeable expiring (or pseudo-expiring in the case of Bogdanovic) salary. Detroit could also be about $2.5 million under the cap after this deal (pending how they structure the trade, the Pistons could create a mid-sized trade exception), which gives them a bit more wiggle room, if needed, in any potential trades.

So, let’s say Zach LaVine’s trade market is really as barren as reports suggest, Detroit could theoretically sneak in and grab him by sending the Bulls some expiring salary for veteran players. In theory, Chicago could be looking to reset their cap sheet a bit, while also adding reinforcements for a postseason push. If the Pistons grease the skids by offering up a single first-round pick, in addition to two or three vets, is that enough to push a deal through? We don’t know that answer, but that’s the sort of thing Detroit could be looking at doing right now. In the summer, trade options will expand even more.

On the court, the direct impact from this trade is pretty negligible. Gallinari has largely fallen out of the Wizards rotation over the last few weeks. In his age-35 season, Gallinari looks like he’s near the end. He can’t move the way he once did on defense, and defense was never his strength in the first place. Gallinari is also shooting only 31% on three-pointers this season.

One thing to keep mind: Gallinari’s agent is Michael Tellem, who is the son of Pistons executive Arn Tellem. Gallinari is a prime buyout candidate. There’s a good chance he works a deal to get set free before even suiting up in Detroit. Because he’s only making $6.8 million this season, Gallinari would be eligible to join any team after a buyout as some veteran frontcourt depth.

Muscala is in a somewhat similar situation, in that he’s a veteran frontcourt player who might not offer much to the Pistons. However, Muscala is a few years younger than Gallinari and history shows he has some value as a stretch five. He could stick in Detroit to give them a shooting center to plug into the rotation with Jalen Duren and James Wiseman.

As for what Detroit gave up, we have to start with Bagley. Giving up two second-round picks to shed Bagley’s salary is an admission that signing him to a fully-guaranteed three-year $37.5 million contract was a mistake. At the time, it seemed like the Pistons were bidding against themselves. That’s only become clearer over the last season-and-a-half.

Bagley hasn’t been bad this season, especially on offense. He’s shooting a career-high 59% from the field, and he’s averaging 10.2 points. But Bagley’s lack of shooting range (he’s all but stopped taking threes) makes him a poor fit next to the Pistons centers. That limits him to backup duty behind Duren, and even that’s inconsistent with Wiseman still around.

Mostly, Detroit made a mistake in paying Bagley what they did. It wasn’t a crushing one by any means, but it was still salary that could have been better spent elsewhere. That’s now rectified at the cost of a couple second-round picks.

Livers never really built on the promise he showed as a rookie. In that first season, Livers looked like he could be a swing forward with a good three-point shot. Since then, he’s shot worse in each of the next two seasons, and Livers hasn’t improved as a defender or rebounder.

One minor part of this trade that could be getting a little overlooked is that Troy Weaver removed a couple of clubs from Monty Williams’ bag. Instead of throwing minutes (and, worse, starts!) to Bagley or Livers, Williams will now be forced to play other players instead. It’s the equivalent of the “Can’t play Pena” trade from the film version of Moneyball.

Washington Wizards

Incoming salary: $14.3 million in 2023-24

Outgoing salary: $10.3 million in 2023-24

Washington’s side of this trade is less intriguing. But it still gives us some hints of where the Wizards might be headed.

Washington took on about $4 million in salary this season, but they are miles under the luxury tax anyway. The bigger, and more interesting thing, is that the Wizards took on $12.5 million next year. That amount takes Washington from being a projected cap space team at around $25 million to functioning as an over-the-cap team in 2024.

Now, the Wizards have been clear that they are playing the long game in rebuilding. So, this was mostly about getting a couple of second-round picks. Bagley is also young enough that perhaps there is some late-bloomer upside still there if you squint hard enough. Washington has also been dreadfully thin at the five behind Daniel Gafford this season. Bagley gives them a little cover there, and potentially even more cover if Gafford himself is traded.

Livers enters a pretty crowded forward/wing rotation in Washington. He’s not going to play over Kyle Kuzma or Deni Avdija, who have started for the Wizards all season. Livers also is behind Bilal Coulibaly and Corey Kispert, who are former first-rounders and part of Washington’s future.

If it feels like this is kind of a sideways trade for the Wizards, that’s probably true. The second-rounders they have coming to them are tied up with all kinds of swap conditions. That means it’s not even fully clear what they’ll have there. But by taking on Bagley’s $12.5 million for 2024-25, it’s a sign that Washington isn’t planning any quick fixes by using cap space next summer.

Maybe the next trade, or two or three, swing that back in the other direction. But, for now, it looks like Washington is committed to a slower rebuild. And that’s ok, given how long the franchise sat stuck in the middle. It’s also a sign that Michael Winger and crew aren’t done with shuffling players in and out of the nation’s capital. The Wizards likely have an active few weeks ahead of them before the February 8 trade deadline.

Keith SmithJanuary 05, 2024

January 7 isn’t a well-known date on the NBA calendar, but it should be. Many know that on January 10, all NBA contracts become fully guaranteed. What isn’t as well-known is that in order for a team to not have a fully guaranteed deal land on their books for the rest of the season, they have to make a decision by January 7.

Teams must waive players on partial/non-guaranteed deals by January 7 in order for them to clear waivers before January 10. (The waiver period is 48 hours). Thus, while January 10 is the technical date that all contracts become fully guaranteed, January 7 is the functional deadline.

There are 34 players in limbo before the January 7 deadline. Here are the decisions NBA teams must make. (All salary amounts reflect the player’s fully guaranteed cap hit.)

 

Atlanta Hawks

No guarantee decisions

Boston Celtics

Dalano Banton - $2,019,706

Banton’s contract is already half-guaranteed at just over $1 million. Boston is also already sitting on an open roster spot. Banton isn’t going anywhere.

Luke Kornet - $2,413,304

Kornet is a regular rotation player, and a key backup at the center spot when Al Horford or Kristaps Porzingis need a night off. His deal will become fully guaranteed.

Svi Mykhailiuk - $2,019,706

Mykhailiuk has had an inconsistent role with the Celtics, but he’s been fairly productive when called up. He’s in the same boat as Banton with just over $1 million already guaranteed. He’ll stick around.

Lamar Stevens - $2,019,706

Stevens is in a similar spot as Banton and Mykhailiuk as veteran bench depth, minus the $1 million guarantee. His deal doesn’t have a fixed guarantee, but he’s not going anywhere either.

Brooklyn Nets

Harry Giles III - $2,019,706

Giles is one of the best feel-good stories in the NBA, as he’s made it back from several injury-plagued years. He hasn’t played a lot, but unless the Nets need a roster spot, Giles will see his deal become guaranteed.

Trendon Watford - $2,019,706

Watford’s deal is already guaranteed for $700,000. Until recently, he was also a regular rotation player. Given the Nets seem likely to do some frontcourt shuffling at the trade deadline, expect Watford to have his deal guaranteed, and to find his way back into the rotation.

Charlotte Hornets

Frank Ntilikina - $2,019,706

Ntilikina was given a $200,000 initial guarantee with the hope that he’d replace Dennis Smith Jr. in the Hornets backcourt. Unfortunately, a fractured leg has caused him to miss the entire season to date. This seems like a 50-50 decision for Charlotte, who could use some backcourt depth, but is going nowhere this season standings-wise. A lot may depend on what Ntilikina’s injury timeline looks like.

Ish Smith - $2,019,706

Smith has been an integral rotation player for Charlotte this season, in part due to the guy above being out and LaMelo Ball missing time. Smith will stick around. The real question? Will Smith get traded to a team he hasn’t played for yet, which would be a 14th team on his career ledger.

J.T Thor - $1,836,096

Thor is a regular rotation for Charlotte. He’s also still youngish at 23 years old. He’s not going anywhere.

Chicago Bulls

Terry Taylor - $2,019,706

Taylor has $700,000 of his deal already guaranteed, and the Bulls already have an open roster spot. He’s also playing a lot with Nikola Vucevic sidelined, albeit as the smallest small-ball five in the league at just 6-foot-5. Unless Chicago needs to clear some additional room under the tax, Taylor will stick around.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Sam Merrill - $1,997,238

Given Cleveland is just under the tax line (before the Ricky Rubio buyout is finalized), Merrill looked like he could be waived. But he’s playing real rotation minutes for the banged-up Cavaliers and he’s played well. He’ll stick.

Tristan Thompson - $2,019,706

Thompson has surprisingly become a key frontcourt backup for the Cavs. He’s also a respected locker room voice. Thompson will see his deal guaranteed.

Dallas Mavericks

Markieff Morris - $2,019,706

Morris has played more than was expected, due to injuries in the Mavs frontcourt. He’s someone Jason Kidd likes to use when the team needs to get a little nasty too. He’ll stick around and see his deal become fully guaranteed.

Denver Nuggets

No guarantee decisions

Detroit Pistons

Kevin Knox - $2,019,706

There was a point where it looked like Knox was a filler player, on almost a pseudo-10-day type of deal. Then he started playing rotation minutes, including a handful of starts. Knox will probably stick and could see his role further increased if Detroit moves some vets at the trade deadline.

Golden State Warriors

Gui Santos - $1,119,563

Santos was signed because Golden State had to fill their 14th roster spot. As a former Warriors draftee, they also get some luxury tax savings, because he hits the books at his actual salary vs the veteran minimum amount. That’s a long way to say Santos is safe.

Houston Rockets

Aaron Holiday - $2,019,706

Holiday has been the Rockets backup point guard this season. He’s also turned in a really underrated season for a better-than-expected team. He’s not going anywhere.

Boban Marjanovic - $2,019,706

Marjanovic is one of the best teammates and locker room presences in the NBA. Enough said. He’s safe.

Indiana Pacers

James Johnson - $1,416,116

Unless Indiana thinks they might need a roster spot, Johnson will stick around. They value his toughness and veteran presence on a somewhat young roster.

LA Clippers

No guarantee decisions

Los Angeles Lakers

No guarantee decisions

Memphis Grizzlies

Bismack Biyombo - $5,000,000

If Memphis was going to waive Biyombo, they would have done it when they had to make a cut to bring Ja Morant off the suspended list. Biyombo isn’t going anywhere, unless it’s as part of a trade package, which also feels unlikely.

Miami Heat

Orlando Robinson - $1,801,769

Robinson has another non-guaranteed season after this one, and he’s been an interesting developmental project. No team gets more out of those guys than Miami does. Robinson will stick around.

Dru Smith - $1,801,769

Smith would have been in the same boat as Robinson, but he’s out for the season after suffering a freak injury when he fell off the side of the elevated court in Cleveland. Miami could move on from Smith to create a second open roster spot, and to save a bit under the tax line. But don’t rule out Smith being re-signed over the summer, so the Heat can continue to work with him. The other option is he stays and continues to rehab with Miami ahead of next season’s non-guaranteed contract kicking in.

Milwaukee Bucks

No guarantee decisions

Minnesota Timberwolves

No guarantee decisions

New Orleans Pelicans

Jose Alvarado - $1,836,096

Last season we wrote that Alvarado was “arguably the biggest no-brainer on the list”. Nothing has changed. He’s not going anywhere. But… the Pelicans are going to get out of the tax somehow. Keep an eye on the team moving Kira Lewis Jr. by the trade deadline, unless a bigger trade develops.

New York Knicks

Ryan Arcidiacono - $2,019,706

We’re right back in the same place as a year ago: Arcidiacono is still a favorite of Tom Thibodeau, so he’ll stick around. But will the Knicks trade him again? That $2 million is a nice little bit of salary-matching if New York makes another big move.

Taj Gibson - $1,416,116

Gibson, another Thibodeau favorite, was brought in after Mitchell Robinson went down. He’ll stick around for center depth and veteran presence purposes.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Isaiah Joe - $1,997,238

Joe is on a steal of a contract as a regular rotation player. He’s also the Thunder’s best pure shooter. He’s not going anywhere.

Aaron Wiggins - $1,836,096

Wiggins is one of the most-used bench wings the Thunder have. He’s carved out a real role. He’ll see his deal become fully guaranteed.

Orlando Magic

Jonathan Isaac - $17,400,000

We’re here again. Isaac has played more this season, which is encouraging. But he’s still missed time and he’s currently injured yet again. However, the Magic aren’t going to waive him, only to eat $7.6 million. If nothing else, Isaac is a great piece of salary-matching in a trade at $17.4 million. If he’s still on the roster after the season, and hasn’t gotten and stayed healthy, then Orlando has a real decision to make on keeping him next season.

Philadelphia 76ers

No guarantee decisions

Phoenix Suns

Jordan Goodwin - $1,927,896

Goodwin’s deal is already half-guaranteed at nearly $1 million. He’s fallen out of the rotation recently, but he remains the lone true point guard on the Suns roster. Goodwin isn’t going anywhere.

Portland Trail Blazers

Moses Brown - $2,019,706

Brown is in a somewhat interesting spot. He’s already had $500,000 of his deal guaranteed. He’s also started several games while DeAndre Ayton has been out. But Ayton will eventually come back, and the Trail Blazers have interesting options in two-way centers Duop Reath and Ibou Badji. Call Brown a 50-50 decision.

Ishmail Wainright - $1,927,896

Wainright has missed a lot of time this season. Conceivably, he can add some defense on the wing. Given Portland doesn't have a lot of defenders, Wainright will probably stick around and the Blazers will see what they have him in the rest of the season.

Skylar Mays - $1,799,163

Mays was converted from his two-way deal when Portland had a bunch of ballhandlers down with injuries. The team is mostly healthy at that spot now, and they are overstocked when healthy. A lot of guaranteeing Mays comes down to what the Blazers think will happen with trades. If they clear out some of the logjam, Mays would be a valuable guy to keep. If that’s not happening, then Mays could be waived to open up a roster spot for an upside play at another position. Call him a 50-50 decision too.

Sacramento Kings

Juan Toscano-Anderson - $1,416,116

The Kings added Toscano-Anderson to fill an open roster spot when they had some players out on the wing. Since then, Sacramento has gotten healthy, but Toscano-Anderson has still occasionally played to provide energy and defense on the perimeter. He’ll probably stick around, unless the Kings think they might need that roster spot. One factor? Keon Ellis has been a rotation guy for a lot of the season, but he’s on a two-way deal. Eventually, he’ll run out of games and need to be converted. That could factor into Toscano-Anderson’s standing on the team.

San Antonio Spurs

No guarantee decisions

Toronto Raptors

No guarantee decisions

Utah Jazz

Luka Samanic - $2,066,585

Utah thinks enough of Samanic as a developmental guy that they already guaranteed him $600,000. There’s no real reason to cut him now. He’ll stick around and maybe more minutes will open, if the Jazz trade a frontcourt player or two.

Omer Yurtseven - $2,800,000

Yurtseven has $1.4 million already guaranteed in his deal. He’s in the same boat as Samanic as far as playing time goes, and Yurtseven has a second non-guaranteed season on the books for next season too. He won’t be going anywhere.

Washington Wizards

No guarantee decisions

 

Keith SmithJanuary 02, 2024

During the week before Christmas, the NBA world descended upon Orlando. This time it was a more-welcomed trip, as opposed to arriving in the summer of 2020 to complete the season in the Walt Disney World bubble.

The NBA showed up in Orlando this time for the 2023 G League Showcase. The Westchester Knicks took home the Showcase Cup, but the main reason for the event was for NBA front office to mingle together. It’s considered the cousin to Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings, as a space where NBA trade talks take off in full. It’s not clear if being together at the Showcase sparked the New Year’s weekend trade between the New York Knicks and Toronto Raptors, but it’s highly likely trade talks did take place in Orlando.

The other purpose of the event is for G League players to show out for NBA front office personnel. Many rostered players have stood out during the first part of the G League season. This includes players on standard contracts and players signed to two-way deals. But it’s the other guys, the free agents, who need the Showcase to earn an NBA callup.

These callups could occur via a 10-day contract. Teams are allowed to sign players to 10-day deals starting on January 5. The other option is further shuffling of two-way contracts.

As it stands, as of this writing, nine teams have an open standard roster spot:

In addition, the New York Knicks have an open Two-way spot. Other roster spots will open up as teams make trades (the trade deadline is February 8) or if teams waive players (the last day to waive players before contracts guarantee is January 7).

The following players have stood out, both in the early part of the G League season and at the Showcase event in Orlando. A handful were also players mentioned regularly by NBA scouts and front office executives as players who might garner a callup from the G League.

(Note: This list is presented in no particular order. It is not a ranking of any kind!)

All stats as of January 1, 2024 and provided by RealGM’s G League Database

Guards

Mac McClung – Osceola Magic, PG, 6’2’’, 25 years old

McClung has dominated as a scorer on the G League level. His quickness stands out, as minor league defenders have trouble staying in front of McClung. His efficiency is down a bit from deep, but McClung is taking 8.8 three-pointers per game and still hitting 37% of them. He’s also averaging 6.1 assists per game. If he were a bit bigger, McClung would be on an NBA roster already. As it stands, he should be very high on the list of guys teams look at who need a ballhandler/playmaker at the lead guard spot.

Jason Preston – Memphis Hustle, PG, 6’3’’, 24 years old

Preston is probably too good for the minors, sort of the equivalent to an MLB 4 A player. He may be the best pure playmaker in the league. He’s averaging 8.9 assists per game and consistently generates good looks for his teammates. The thing that holds Preston back is that he’s hitting just 27% from behind the arc. He’s still an interesting guy if a team needs an additional guard in the second half of the season.

Scotty Pippen Jr. – South Bay Lakers, PG, 6’1’’, 23 years old

Pippen has been one of the best scorers in the G League this season. He’s averaging 21 points per game on 51/39/84 shooting splits. He’s also snagging a couple of steals per game, and handing out six assists a night. Pippen can get a little wild with the ball, as his 3.6 turnovers per game will attest to. And his size works against him some. But Pippen is worth a look for a team that needs some juice in the backcourt.

Jalen Crutcher – Birmingham Squadron, PG, 6’1’’, 24 years old

Crutcher is a third-year G League player. His experience shows, as he’s done a nice job as a scorer and playmaker. Crutcher is averaging 19.7 points, 5.1 assists and 1.1 steals. What’s really exciting is that Crutcher has shot 42.7% on 8.7 three-point attempts per game. That’s a third consecutive year over 40% from deep on increasing volume each season. If he was only a bit bigger, Crutcher would be on an NBA roster already.

Javonte Smart – Delaware Blue Coats, PG/SG, 6’4’’, 24 years old

Smart has been stuffing the stat sheet in the G League. He was recently waived from his two-way contract with the Philadelphia 76ers, but that seemed more about the Sixers getting Kenneth Lofton Jr. than anything to do with Smart’s play. The third-year player has averaged 21.1 points, 5.1 assists and 3.6 rebounds. Smart has also put up 48/43/95 shooting splits, on an impressive 8.1 three-point attempts per game. That’s NBA-level stuff.

Brandon Goodwin – Westchester Knicks, PG, 6’0’’, 28 years old

Goodwin has four years of NBA experience, so he’s leading off the veteran section here. As Westchester rolled to the Showcase Cup championship, Goodwin led the way. He’s averaged 19.1 points and 8.6 assists this season. Even more impressive? Goodwin is grabbing 5.3 rebounds per game, despite being just 6-feet tall. But it’s that lack of size on the defensive end, plus a lack of a consistent shot, that has Goodwin on the fringes of the NBA. He’s also out of two-way eligibility. But Goodwin can help a team immediately on a 10-day. Perhaps more than most on this list.

Shaquille Harrison – South Bay Lakers, PG/SG, 6’4’’, 30 years old

Harrison has already logged some NBA time on a hardship callup with the Memphis Grizzlies this season. Teams keep calling Harrison, because he’s an NBA-level guy. He knows his role is to defend and keep the ball moving. If Harrison shot it a little better, he’d be signed to a standard contract. As it is, he’s probably the most “plug-and-play” option on this list for a callup.

Elfrid Payton – Indiana Mad Ants, PG, 6’3’’, 29 years old

Payton is one of the more recognizable names on this list, as a former lottery pick. The same issue remains for Payton as always: He’s not a consistent shooter. But he’s a proven NBA-level playmaker and he can hold up defensively against most point guards. Payton has averaged 10.6 points, 8.6 assists and 1.8 steals in the G League this season. If a team needs an experienced ballhandler, Payton could handle some NBA action immediately.

Wings

Ethan Thompson – Mexico City Capitanes, SG/SF, 6’5’’, 24 years old

Thompson has been one of the G League’s best scorers this season. He’s averaging 23.1 points on 45% shooting. Thompson has also hit 39% of his 7.2 three-point attempts per game. It looks like Thompson has been a more active and competitive defender than during his first couple of professional seasons too. And he’s getting on the glass more, with 5.6 rebounds per game. Thompson could be a candidate for a two-way deal, for a team looking for some organizational wing depth.

Quenton Jackson – Windy City Bulls, SG/SF, 6’5’’, 25 years old

Jackson saw some limited NBA run with the Washington Wizards last season. He’s parlayed that into a strong start in the G League this season. Jackson has averaged 15.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.9 steals per game. He’s a very competitive defender. Unfortunately, Jackson is hitting only 24% from behind the arc. If he were a more consistent shooter, Jackson would already be on an NBA roster.

Matthew Hurt – Memphis Hustle, SF/PF, 6’9’’, 23 years old

Hurt showed signs in his G League run a year ago, but has really broken out this season. He’s got good size for a wing, and he’s strong enough to guard up at the four. Hurt has been an improved finisher this season, as he’s averaging 13.2 points on 54% shooting. He’s also hit 39% of his 4.9 three-point attempts per game. The best thing? Hurt is one of the better help defenders in the G League, as he’s averaged 2.3 blocks per game.

Adonis Arms – Memphis Hustle, SF/SG, 6’6’’, 25 years old

As his name might suggest, Arms is a strong defender. He’s been one of the best defensive wings in the G League this season. He’s also flashed an improved shot, as he’s at 40% from behind the arc on 3.9 attempts per game. In addition, Arms is a stronger rebounder for a wing at 5.3 boards per game. He’s another candidate for a potential two-way contract for a team that needs a defensive-minded wing.

Maozinha Periera – Mexico City Capitanes, SF, 6’8’’, 23 years old

Periera is an under-the-radar guy, but he flashes when you catch Mexico City play. He’s a bouncy athlete who can really finish around the basket. He’s also an active rebounder at 10.3 boards per game. Most of his defense seems to be on instinct, but those instincts are good ones. Pereira averages 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. He’s someone NBA teams should be looking to snag as a two-way project.

Darius Bazley – Delaware Blue Coats, SF/PF, 6’9’’, 23 years old

Bazley hasn’t been in the G League very long, but he’s already made a major impact. He’s averaging 21.1 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.3 steals and 3.0 blocks per game for Delaware. It’s clear that Bazley’s athleticism is NBA-level. He’s too quick and too strong for most G League players to defend. The challenge is that Bazley is still a shaky shooter, as witnessed by 27.6% on 6.4 three-pointers per game. If that improves, Bazley could be a late-bloomer (third draft?) callup for an NBA team.

Jaylen Nowell – Stockton Kings, SG, 6’4’’, 24 years old

Nowell is an NBA veteran. He’s also already played in the NBA this season, as he joined the Memphis Grizzlies on a hardship callup. Because of that, Nowell has played only five games in the G League. Those games have been enough to show he should be in the NBA. Nowell has scored with relative ease in the minors. The only thing holding him back remains an inconsistent jumper. Nowell fell from 39% from deep two seasons ago to 29% last season. And he hasn’t hit threes in the G League or NBA this year. If that corrects, Nowell will be back on an NBA roster for good.

Bigs

Trey Jemison – Birmingham Squadron, PF, 6’10’’, 24 years old

Jemison has the look of an NBA player. He’s big, quick, athletic and fairly smooth. He’s also a smart player who plays to his strengths and stays close to the basket. The scoring stats won’t jump out at you, but the G League is a guard’s league. Jemison is a solid enough finisher. Where he really shines is on defense. Jemison has grabbed 11.2 rebounds and blocked 1.8 shots per game. If a team needs an emergency big, Jemison should get a call. He’d be a sneaky addition a two-way project too.

Ruan Miranda – Mexico City Capitanes, PF/C, 6’9’’, 22 years old

Miranda is a capital “P” project, but he might be worth it. He’s extremely raw, but Miranda has the athletic tools. In just 15.5 minutes per game, he’s grabbing 4.8 rebounds and has been a terror on the offensive glass. The jumper is non-existent, but Miranda’s free throw form is alright. A big challenge will be teaching him how to use his athleticism without fouling. If a team has room for a two-way project, Miranda might be worth it.

Mouhamadou Gueye – Raptors 905, PF, 6’9’’, 25 years old

Gueye is a little older than some others on this list and his game is pretty old-school too. But he’s a player. This season, Gueye has flashed improved finishing around the basket. He’s up to 61% from the floor, which has led to 15.4 points per game. He’s also grabbing 7.4 rebounds. But what’s really stood out is Gueye is a natural shot blocker. The big man is at an impressive 2.9 rejections per game. He’s both good in straight-up defense and coming over from the weakside. Gueye might be ready to step in and help an NBA team with his energy and shot-blocking ability right away.

Chris Silva – College Park Skyhawks, PF, 6’8’’, 27 years old

Silva has been around the fringes of the NBA for years now. He’s undersized and a bit ground-bound to play on the interior in the NBA, and Silva can’t really step out and shoot it. But he’s incredibly strong and a solid screener, in a league where that’s a lost art. Silva is averaging 17.4 points on 61% shooting. He’s also grabbing 9.2 rebounds per game and handing out three assists. If an NBA team needs someone to come in and play a few frontcourt minutes per night on a 10-day deal, Silva is more than ready.

Jordan Bell – Indiana Mad Ants, PF, 6’7’’, 29 years old

The prospect shine is long-since gone from Bell, but he’s a better player now than during his NBA time. Bell has vacillated between starting and coming off the bench for the Mad Ants. In either role, he’s brought great energy to the floor. Bell is averaging only 11.1 points, but he’s mostly focused on defending, screening and moving the ball. Bell has pulled down 7.9 rebounds, blocked 2.6 shots and dished out 3.6 assists per game. He’s not two-way eligible, but Bell could help a team on a 10-day callup.

Non-G League Veterans to Watch

DeMarcus Cousins – Taiwan Beer Leopards, C, 6’11’’, 33 years old

Cousins signed on to play in Taiwan for a series of games. Following his initial contract, the team and Cousins will decide if he’ll sign a longer deal or not. If all goes well, Cousins could find his way back to the NBA. Last summer, in 19 games in Puerto Rico, Cousins averaged 19 points, 9.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.4 blocks in 24.9 minutes per game. He still wants to play and could potentially help an NBA team as a backup center. The way back will come through proving he belongs in the league via a 10-day contract or two.

Austin Rivers – Free Agent, SG, 6’4’’, 31 years old

Rivers was good enough to appear in 52 games last season for the Minnesota Timberwolves. He averaged 4.9 points and hit 35% of his three-pointers for the Wolves, but Rivers rarely played after the trade deadline. He recently worked out for teams in Orlando and many came away feeling he looked good physically. Keep an eye on Rivers getting a 10-day deal or two to prove he deserves another NBA contract.

John Wall – Free Agent, PG, 6’3’’, 33 years old

Wall was traded from the LA Clippers at least season’s trade deadline, and subsequently waived. About a month prior to that, Wall had lost his rotation spot for the Clippers. He also worked out for NBA teams in Orlando. Some were surprised at how quick Wall looked, with a handful remarking he looked physically good enough to play in the NBA. Like Cousins and Rivers, Wall’s path to the league is via taking a 10-day deal or two and proving he can still contribute.

 

Keith SmithDecember 30, 2023

On a sleepy pre-New Year’s Eve Saturday afternoon, the Toronto Raptors and New York Knicks swung a massive NBA trade. This trade agreement makes six consecutive seasons the NBA has seen a trade happen within weeks of trade season unofficially opening on December 15.

Here are the particulars:

  • New York Knicks acquire: OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, Malachi Flynn
  • Toronto Raptors acquire: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, 2024 Detroit Pistons second-round pick

This is a somewhat rare trade between division rivals. This is especially true when both teams are currently pursuing postseason spots this season. And, if that wasn’t enough, both teams are embroiled in a lawsuit over a front office employee taking proprietary information with him when the left New York for Toronto this past summer.

However, none of that kept the two from coming together on what looks like a win-win trade. Let’s dive in!

New York Knicks

Incoming salary: $26.9 million in 2023-24

Outgoing salary: $28 million in 2023-24

The New York Knicks have not been a Tom Thibodeau style of defensive team over the last three seasons. After finishing third in the NBA in defensive rating in 2020-21, the Knicks have been 11th and 19th the last two seasons and currently sit a pedestrian 16th this season.

In addition, the Knicks have been an average or below-average three-point shooting team over the last few years.

Enter OG Anunoby.

Anunoby has been one of the NBA’s premier 3&D wings throughout his seven-year career. He’s consistently hit in the high-30% range on a healthy volume of attempts from deep. Defensively, he uses his 6-foot-7 frame to guard anyone 2-4. Anunoby is also quick enough to switch onto point guards, while being strong enough to switch onto centers.

The challenge is that Anunoby’s game has never leveled-up the way many hoped it would. When he signed his rookie extension, the hope was Anunoby would grow into more of an on-ball threat. That’s never really materialized.

Despite being a solid ball-mover, Anunoby isn’t a shot-creator. He’s dependent on others to get him good looks. That’s limited his upside as an offensive player.

On defense, Anunoby is a very good defensive player. However, as a wing, he’s not someone you can build your entire defense around. So, while he may continue to earn accolades for his individual defense, he’s not someone who can lift an average team defense from poor to good or good to great all by himself

In New York, Anunoby shouldn’t have to worry about doing any of those things on either end of the floor.

On offense, the Knicks have enough creators that Anunoby’s ability to consistently hit open threes will be welcomed. He’s a major upgrade over RJ Barrett in the phase of the game. Barrett is more likely to put the ball on the floor and to create something, but that’s less of a need when Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle are around.

On defense, Anunoby being a bit bigger than Barrett is helpful. He’ll be able to slide up a position to play the four when Randle needs to sit, which is something Barrett can’t do. Anunoby’s ability to lock down one perimeter player, will also help the Knicks in hiding Brunson, while letting everyone else stay home more.

Expect New York’s starting lineup to look like this now:

  • Isaiah Hartenstein
  • Julius Randle
  • OG Anunoby
  • Donte DiVincenzo
  • Jalen Brunson

Behind that group, New York will have Josh Hart, Quentin Grimes, Precious Achiuwa and Taj Gibson.

It’s the second-unit where the Knicks downgraded. Malachi Flynn has played better this year, but he’s not a replacement for Immanuel Quickley. That’s a big loss for New York. One silver lining: This does clean up the guard/wing rotation quite a bit. The Knicks had been trying to fit six players into what were really two spots. Someone was always getting shorted minutes, and that’s no longer an issue.

Achiuwa will help with frontcourt depth. Thibodeau is likely use him exclusively as a backup center, as opposed to having him play the four, which Toronto dabbled in. Mitchell Robinson is out for the season, which has pressed veteran Gibson into service behind Hartenstein. Putting it kindly, Gibson’s best days are behind him. Achiuwa will bring energy and the ability to run the floor behind Hartenstein.

Looking beyond this year, this trade has the initial feel of cleaning up New York’s cap sheet. However, that’s taking way too simplistic of an approach.

Yes, the Knicks shed over $100 million in salary for Barrett. And New York doesn’t have to pay Quickley in restricted free agency this summer, where the rumor was he wanted at least $100 million of his own. But the Knicks will need to pay Anunoby, and that’s going to eat into their cap flexibility a good deal.

There are basically three options for Anunoby’s next contract. He could sign an extension right now, but he’s limited to coming in under the extend-and-trade parameters. That would mean declining his player option for next season and signing a two-year extension worth about $40.1 million. Under the extend-and-trade rules, Anunoby would be limited to a 5% raise off his current $18.6 million deal. That would be about $19.6 million for next season, followed by a second year in 2025-26 at $20.5 million.

That’s a little light for what Anunoby could expect to get in free agency or via a standard veteran extension.

If this trade is completed on December 30 (and it’s expected it will be), Anunoby will be eligible to sign a standard veteran extension on June 30, when his six-month extension restriction would lift. That extension would be worth as much as $116.9 million over four years. That would see Anunoby declining his player option for next year, but extending for the max of four years, with a 40% raise from his current salary and then 8% raises after that.

That’s an average annual value (AAV) of about $29.2 million. That AAV is far more in range of what Anunoby could be looking at on his next deal, compared to the $20 million AAV he could extend for right now.

But, there’s a complicating factor here. Anunoby could choose to not extend and to play things out to unrestricted free agency this summer. He’d be eligible for a projected first-year max of $42.6 million as a free agent. That’s either from the Knicks or another team. Because New York has his full Bird rights, should Anunoby opt out this summer, they can give him up to that $42.6 million, and could add a fifth year onto the deal.

Now, Anunoby probably isn’t a max player. But he’s close to one. And because his skillset as one of the best 3&D players in the league can fit anywhere, he’ll be a prime free agent target for any cap space team. There are teams that have enough cap space to make Anunoby a max or near-max offer. That could force the Knicks to pay a bit more than Anunoby could fetch via an extension on June 30.

Putting it all together, there is no way Anunoby extends now. He’d be leaving too much money on the table. By the time June 30 rolls around, he’ll know if he should extend with the Knicks for just shy of $30 million AAV, or if he’s got bigger offers waiting for him in free agency. Or if he can simply get more, or a fifth year, from New York as a free agent.

As for Achiuwa and Flynn, they are both eligible for restricted free agency this summer. The Knicks will likely take a wait-and-see approach with both players. Achiuwa could be someone New York will invest in as a restricted free agent. Hartenstein will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and Mitchell Robinson will be returning from a season-ending injury. If Achiuwa plays well the rest of this season, it’s easy to envision a world where he sticks in New York.

Flynn will probably be allowed to leave, as the Knicks already have other guards. And they like Miles McBride, who they’ve developed over the last few years and is in a similar spot to Flynn as a restricted free agent point guard.

Jumping back to this year: don’t expect New York to be done tinkering with their roster. This trade saved them some money on this year’s books. The Knicks are about $5 million below the luxury tax line and about $10 million under the tax apron, at which they are hard capped. That should be enough wiggle room to make additional moves, should the opportunity arise.

New York still has Evan Fournier’s pseudo-expiring $18.8 million contract (there is a $19 million team option for Fournier for 2024-25) to dangle in trade talks. If New York decides they need to upgrade another spot (center perhaps?), they’ve got that contract and enough room under the tax and apron to make it happen.

Toronto Raptors

Incoming salary: $28 million in 2023-24

Outgoing salary: $26.9 million in 2023-24

This trade signals the start of a reset for the Raptors. No more clunky three-forward lineups. No more searching for a long-term answer at point guard. This trade made Toronto more balanced, and they might not be done making moves.

RJ Barrett is a more versatile offensive player than OG Anunoby. Barrett is a better off-the-dribble creator than Anunoby is, and he’s a better playmaker than his assist numbers show. If he’s given a chance to do a little more on-ball creating in Toronto, Barrett could shine.

Barrett isn’t nearly the shooter Anunoby is, and that’s tough for a Raptors team that all too often struggles to make jumpers. Outside of hitting 40% in his sophomore season, Barrett has been a below-average three-point shooter. This season he’s ticked up slightly, but the idea of him becoming a good shooter is a thing of the past.

Defensively, Barrett is a notch or two below Anunoby too. He’s smaller, so he’s not as fully switchable as Anunoby. He’s much more of a pure wing defender. But Barrett is a good defender and should fit in well alongside Toronto’s other wings and forwards.

Where the Raptors did well on the court in this trade was snagging Immanuel Quickley. After breaking out last season and nearly winning Sixth Man of the Year, Quickley has been even better this season. And that’s despite losing playing time and some shots in a crowded Knicks backcourt.

Essentially, Quickley is a player whose profile screams a need for a bigger role. He’ll get it in Toronto. Dennis Schroder has played well for the Raptors, but he’s best as a backup at this point in his career. (Coincidentally, Toronto had recently moved Schroder to the bench in the last week.)

Simply put: Quickley can be the Raptors long-term answer at the point guard position.

Quickley is a score-first player, but there are some playmaking chops there that didn’t get a chance to shine in New York. As a scorer, Quickley excels in using screens to create his own looks. He’s a good pullup shooter and he’s got one of the best floaters in the game.

Just as importantly, Quickley is a good off-ball player too. In New York, where the ball is controlled by Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle most of the time, Quickley has learned how to spot-up for jumpers. Or he attacks hard closeouts to get into the paint himself for his floater, or to find a teammate.

That will be important in Toronto too, as Scottie Barnes has become the Raptors main offensive engine. Pascal Siakam will continue to drive the offense a lot too, for however long he’s still there (more on that in a bit). And it’s fair to expect Toronto to let Barrett run the show for some possessions too.

But Quickley is going to get a chance to show what he can do. He’s a major upgrade over Schroder. And his presence should allow Schroder to go back to the bench role where he excels.

On defense, Quickley is competitive against opposing ballhandlers. No pun intended, but he uses his quickness to stay in front of them, and to challenge for steals. Like most smaller guards, Quickley can get overwhelmed inside against bigger players. Toronto should have enough size on the floor to counter that, however.

One bonus with Quickley: He’s a very good rebounder for his size. He’s terrific at snagging a defensive board and triggering transition offense by himself. Look for that to be something that Toronto emphasizes.

Long-term, Barrett is in the fold for next several seasons. He’s under contract through 2026-27 with no options. Provided Barrett proves he can fit with Barnes as a forward/wing pairing, the Raptors should be set for a while at that spot. If that pairing doesn’t work, Barrett’s contract isn’t so onerous that he couldn’t be moved as the Raptors continue to find players to maximize Barnes.

Quickley will be a restricted free agent this summer. He reportedly wanted an extension in the range of $25 million AAV, and $100 million overall. That’s fair, but not something the Knicks were likely to do. Locking up that kind of money for Quickley, when Brunson was already in the fold and entrenched as the starting point guard, would have been somewhat questionable for New York.

Toronto doesn’t have those worries. They can give Quickley that type of deal to bring them stability at the point guard position for the next several years. If bidding gets a little higher for Quickley as a restricted free agent, the Raptors can control the process by matching any offer sheet he signs.

As for the rest of this season, there are reports that Toronto will continue to look to trade Pascal Siakam. He’s a pending free agent, and both he and the Raptors had reportedly set a tentative deadline of December 30 to reach an agreement on an extension. If that comes to pass without a new deal, then Toronto could look to move Siakam before risking losing him for nothing this summer.

As of now, there is reportedly no traction on a trade for Siakam, but that could change quickly. Several teams, including the Atlanta Hawks, Indiana Pacers, Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors have expressed interest in Siakam over the past two years. If Toronto chooses to move on from Siakam, they’ll have no problem finding a trade partner.

The key will be what kind of deal the Raptors make. Adding Barrett and Quickley in this trade signals the Raptors are resetting, not rebuilding. Expect a similar type of return for Siakam, in terms of players who can play now.

Assume Toronto will also explore the trade market for Gary Trent Jr., as he’s likely to return to a bench role after this deal. Trent, like Siakam, is set for unrestricted free agency this summer. He’s also extension-eligible, but nothing seems to be moving forward in that area.

Toronto also has over $14 million in expiring salary for Otto Porter Jr. and Thaddeus Young, which would go a long way towards matching contracts in trades. Both are players to keep an eye on ahead of the February 8 trade deadline. As it stands, Toronto is about $2 million under the luxury tax line now. That’s tight, but they should have enough room to make moves, if they want to take on a bit more money.

The Raptors also acquired what looks like it will be the best second-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft in this trade, as they are getting the Detroit Pistons 2024 second-round pick via the Knicks. That pick projects to be the 31st pick, as the Pistons remain mired in a record-setting losing streak as of this writing. That’s a great value for pick for Toronto to have, whether they use it themselves or dangle it in trade talks.

Long-term, the Raptors took on over $100 million in this trade. That figure is likely to jump to over $200 million, once they re-sign Quickley. But the franchise now has a sense of stability with those two in the fold. If they extend Siakam and/or Trent, that stability only increases. If they trade either Siakam or Trent, they’ll have fully reset both the team on the floor and the cap sheet.

Mostly, Toronto now has a sense of optionality that didn’t exist prior to this trade. They can go in a lot of different directions, and it feels like Masai Ujiri might just be getting started in reshaping the Raptors.

 

Keith SmithDecember 27, 2023

The Detroit Pistons made the kind of history on Tuesday night that no one wants to make. The Pistons lost their 27th consecutive single-season game. Next up is the overall record of 28 straight losses, which was set by the “Process” Philadelphia 76ers over two seasons.

Things in Detroit are a mess. And that’s being kind.

The Pistons haven’t sniffed a .500 season since 2018-19. They haven’t had a winning record since 2015-16.

This once-proud franchise hasn’t won a single playoff game since Game 4 of the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals.

Only a couple of four-game sweeps as the eighth seed in a woeful Eastern Conference separate the Pistons from a Sacramento Kings-like run of futility.

So…what needs to happen to fix this?

Detroit’s governor Tom Gores scoffed at the idea that he should sell the team. Under his stewardship, the Pistons have posted a .348 winning percentage. He can tout his and his team’s philanthropic work in the community all he wants, but no Detroit fan is really going to care. All NBA teams do great work in the community. What fans really want is an owner who will hire the right people and write checks that lead to winning.

Assuming Gores is going nowhere, we’ll have to work within the construct that he’s running things. In a recent interview, Gores said he’s deeply involved in trying to help the Pistons snap the losing streak, both this season and overall. The Detroit owner said conversations are happening at such a granular level that he’s talking rotations with Monty Williams.

So, that’s kind of where we’ll start: honest conversations.

Troy Weaver

Troy Weaver took over the Pistons front office in June of 2020. His immediate deals made it clear that Weaver was resetting the franchise in a major way.

While we all laughed at Weaver’s apparent proclivity for acquiring centers, the Pistons were on a path. Detroit’s new general manager was acquiring assets by shipping out players and renting out cap space to take on undesirable salary. Weaver also landed a good free agent signing in Jerami Grant. That seemed contradictory to the teardown process, but he got Grant on a solid value contract. Grant’s deal was immediately deemed tradable, and he eventually was.

Sadly, that was probably the high point of Weaver’s run to date.

The losing continued, which was to be somewhat expected. It’s the rate it’s continued at, with an ever-increasing feeling of hopelessness that wasn’t expected.

That means it’s time for Tom Gores to have an honest conversation with and about Weaver. If there is any doubt that Weaver is the one who should lead this team beyond this season, it’s imperative that Gores fire him now.

The number one enemy of a stable franchise is a bad owner. Right behind that is the hot seat GM.

If Gores isn’t 100% sold that Weaver is the guy to handle an offseason where the Pistons project to have close to $40 million in cap space, then he needs to pull the plug right now. Letting Weaver handle a trade deadline, where he’s fighting for his job, could result in a series of deals and non-deals that set the Pistons even further back then they are now.

Isn’t that a scary thought?

This space will rarely campaign for anyone to lose a job, outside of abhorrent non-basketball behavior. But this space is also realistic enough to know that sometimes it’s just time for change.

Weaver has had three-and-a-half seasons. The Pistons have a .233 winning percentage during that time. They win roughly once every four games. The initial losing was a byproduct of starting over. But it’s only gotten worse.

Weaver has continued to rent out cap space, but he’s never acquired that great package of assets to do so. His free agent signings have been somewhere between irrelevant and bad since inking Grant. The draft has been his sole “success” and that’s still a very open question.

Gores needs to hear Weaver’s plan for today, tomorrow and the next several years. If there is a single part of that plan that doesn’t feel right, it’s time to move on.

Monty Williams

Tom Gores, and whoever is running the front office, next need to have an honest conversation with and about Monty Williams. And the “whoever is running the front office” part is of paramount importance here. If Gores isn’t going to involve the front office in picking a coach, then this entire exercise is futile. Nothing will change if there isn’t synergy at the top of the organization.

Gores is a business man at heart. All business men know you can’t continue to throw good money after bad. Sometimes you have to take your losses and move on.

That’s where it seems like the Pistons might be with Williams.

Yes, Williams is only 30 games into a reported six-year deal that is worth at least $80 million. But he’s lost 28 of those games, including 27 in a row (and counting).

It should have been a red flag/blaring alarm/flashing warning signal when Detroit had to keep going back to Williams to take the job in the first place. Not taking no for an answer is a tenet of business, but knowing when to walk away is just as important.

Now, Detroit is locked into a six-year deal for a ton of money with a coach who doesn’t fit. Some days, Williams seems to want to be anywhere else. Other days, he’s engaged, but is prioritizing all the wrong things.

Is it going to be easy to eat one of the richest coaching contracts in NBA history? Nope. Might it be necessary? Yup.

If Gores can’t have honest conversations with and about his GM and coach, and then make the changes necessary, Pistons fans might as well pick a new team. Nothing is going to change.

The Veterans

Now we get into the on-court stuff. The Pistons have some veteran players that should be desirable trade pieces as we approach the trade deadline. Detroit should be able to get some assets back for these players.

Sound familiar?

It should, because it’s the exact same conversation we had last year. And it’s about some of the exact same players too.

The Pistons didn’t trade Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks last season. A year later, the same conversation about the same players can’t have the same result.

Maybe no one met Detroit’s asking price for either guy last year. Maybe Troy Weaver wanted too much. Maybe it was just that the Pistons really thought they’d be better this year and that those guys would aid in a postseason push.

That’s all fair. We aren’t going to beat them up too much for last year’s decisions. This year, however, it has to be different.

Bogdanovic missed some time with injuries, and he’s not much of a defender anymore, but he’s still a terrific scorer and shooter. His contract is also very movable at $20 million for this season, and only $2 million of his $19 million deal guaranteed next season.

Burks is a different story. He’s having a miserable season. Detroit might have missed their best opportunity to sell high on Burks a year ago.

Detroit should be able to get a protected first-round pick for Bogdanovic. Burks is probably only fetching a second-round pick, and that’s only if a team is convinced that he can get back to being a good shooter.

How the Pistons could improve their return is by putting the two together and taking back some undesirable long-term salary. Would that eat into their cap space this summer? Yes. Does that matter? Not really. Detroit isn’t positioned to be a real free agency player, and this free agent class isn’t that good anyway.

The Pistons should also be looking to see if there is any trade interest in Monte Morris (who has yet to play this season due to a quad injury), Joe Harris and Marvin Bagley III. Playoff teams are always looking for bench help and Morris and Harris both have postseason experience. Both are also on expiring contracts. Bagley has another year left, so he’s probably going to be harder to move. It’s still worth exploring though.

The return for any of Morris, Harris and Bagley won’t be great. Maybe a second-round pick (or two for Morris) is what the Pistons can hope for. Again, if Detroit puts them together and takes on some questionable long-term salary in a trade, the return should go up.

The Kids

For a team in the spot the Pistons are in, we’d usually point to their young players as reason for optimism. For example, the San Antonio Spurs are also terrible, but at least they have Victor Wembanyama and a host of other interesting young players.

For Detroit, that’s much more of a mixed bag.

Cade Cunningham is still a very good prospect. He’s may not hit the heights once hoped for as the first overall pick, but Cunningham is only 22 and he’s showing real signs this year of his all-around ability. Cunningham is still worth building around.

Jalen Duren is the next best prospect on the team. Despite battling injuries this season, Duren looks like a nightly double-double threat who can also protect the rim. He’s a worthy running mate for Cunningham.

Ausar Thompson is also a definite keeper. It’s all semi-unharnessed chaotic energy right now, but there’s a real player in there. Thompson’s skillset already looks like someone who might be the NBA’s most versatile defender someday. And if the shot comes around…

After those three, there are questions. Marcus Sasser shows the most potential. At the very least, he looks like he can be a high-end backup point guard. He’s a keeper.

Isaiah Stewart is fine. On a good team, he’d be an ideal third big. Stewart plays with great energy and his outside shot looks real. But he’s about to be at least slightly overpaid on his rookie scale extension. That puts his true value in a weird place. Detroit should keep him unless they get a good offer, but that’s probably a down-the-line thing.

For Killian Hayes (despite Monty Williams obsession with starting him), James Wiseman and Isaiah Livers, the shine is off them as prospects. Hayes has improved from a terrible shooter to a simply bad one. That’s not good enough. Wiseman remains a complete mystery box. He looks like a keeper one game; then like he’ll be on the fringes of the NBA for the next five games. And, after a promising rookie season, Livers has gotten worse for two consecutive seasons. None are going to be a part of the future in Detroit.

Last, but not least, is Jaden Ivey. He’s truly the hardest player to evaluate of the young Pistons. Ivey had a pretty good rookie season. He wasn’t very efficient, but Ivey could create his own shot, and he was a better playmaker for others than anticipated. This season, Ivey’s role has fluctuated and he’s been kind of a mess. The guess here is that Ivey is closer to the rookie version than what we’ve seen this season.

So, there are five keepers among the kids on the roster. That’s actually pretty solid. It’s also fine to keep Stewart as the rest of the roster sorts out. The rest can be added into trades or deprioritized as the rest of the season plays out.

The Rotation

This is where the Pistons can make the most immediate impact. It won’t translate in wins this year, but that hardly matters anymore. The idea is to build for the future.

One of Tom Gores immediate conversations with Troy Weaver and Monty Williams should be about the goals for the rest of this season. Those should be:

  • Maximizing spacing around Cade Cunningham, as best as possible, to see what he can really be. By April, the Pistons should know if Cunningham is a true number one in progress, or a very good complementary player.
  • Letting Ausar Thompson have some on-ball reps every game. It might be really messy. Actually, it will be really messy. But that’s fine. This is all about him learning.
  • Challenging Jalen Duren with different defensive responsibilities. Play him in drop coverages. Play him at the level of the ball. Switch with him and see what happens. He’ll get burned some, but the idea is to know what works with him as a defensive anchor and what doesn’t.
  • Getting Jaden Ivey more minutes and touches. Play him with Cunningham as a secondary creator. Play him as the lead playmaker for stints. Find out if Ivey is the guy he looked like as a rookie, or if he’s a nice, but replaceable rotation player.
  • In order to do this, Gores or Weaver, or both, have to take some of the tools out of Williams’ tool bag.

Remember the “Can’t play Pena” scene from Moneyball? Brad Pitt’s version of Billy Beane tells Philip Seymour Hoffman’s Art Howe that he can no longer play Carlos Pena over Scott Hatteberg, because Beane has traded Pena.

If Williams won’t stop giving rotation minutes, let alone starts, to guys like Killian Hayes and Marvin Bagley, then it’s probably time to get them off the roster. Those are wasted opportunities to evaluate players who will be a part of the Pistons future.

Beyond that, it’s time to stop giving minutes to guys like James Wiseman, Isaiah Livers, Kevin Knox and Joe Harris. Again, none are going to be a part of the next good Pistons team. Stop wasting minutes and opportunities.

The team should focus on the core guys and the guys who maximize them, while they are still in Detroit. Here’s a proposal for the Pistons rotation for the rest of the season:

Starters

Bench

That’s it. If you want to mix in Joe Harris over Alec Burks, no real complaint here. If you want to see if Isaiah Livers can figure it out with more opportunity, fine. If you want to bring Stanley Umude up from his two-way deal and give him 15 minutes per game, that’s probably even better. Burks is more of a placeholder at this point, than he is a building block.

As for everyone else, they are trade fodder or they sit until their contract runs out. Or, if desired, they can attempt to work a buyout. In that case, Detroit can cycle through their two-way players and G League callups to see if someone pops as a potential long-term roster piece.

That rotation gives the Pistons a good mix of guards, wings and bigs. There’s still not enough shooting, but that’s a handicap of the current roster. The idea is to put the best players around Cunningham to open games, while also making sure the young building blocks see as many minutes as they can handle.

The Offseason

The Pistons can create around $40 million in cap space for the 2024 offseason. That figure could climb even higher, pending what moves are made at the trade deadline and in advance of free agency.

We already outlined what the trade deadline strategy should be for Detroit. We’d move on from as many of the vets as possible, while taking on some money to plus-up returns where possible.

Whether that happens by February 8’s trade deadline or not is almost irrelevant. The strategy should remain the same, no matter what. Detroit isn’t going to be in the mix for the best free agents, assuming any of them even hit the market. It won’t benefit the Pistons to go all-in on a secondary or tertiary free agent option.

That isn’t to suggest the Pistons can have only kids on the roster. Some veteran presence is necessary. But that can be found as free agency winds down and money dries up. Detroit could overpay a veteran or two, or even three, on deals that run for only one or two years.

Players that could fit this mold are Gary Harris, Tauren Prince, Doug McDermott or maybe even Gordon Hayward. For some frontcourt depth, the Pistons could target undervalued players like Moritz Wagner, Drew Eubanks, Mike Muscala or Vlatko Cancar.

None of those players would be headline signings, but all would fit what the Pistons need, while not detracting from any of the kids. All can, at least, shoot or defend. All are professionals who can help the younger players, without stepping on them. And all are attainable, without having to grossly overpay.

Ideally, Detroit will use their cap space by taking on some salary in trades. The key? They need to come away with real assets this time. No more renting out cap space for middling returns. Get valuable draft picks and/or young players. If they can’t, then focus on signing undervalued free agents that can fill roles.

Summary

There is no point in continuing to bail out a boat that has already sunk to the bottom. The only recourse is to get a new boat. Salvage what you can and start your journey anew.

That’s the goal for the Detroit Pistons. There are no quick fixes here. This team might end up being one of the worst in NBA history. So be it. It is what it is.

The goal is to move forward. There are kids who can be a part of the next good Pistons team. There are tradable vets who can return real assets. Managing the cap flexibility is key. Whether it’s smart free agent signings or taking on salary for help returns, the front office has to get that right.

If Troy Weaver and Monty Williams can’t get behind the plan laid out above, then Tom Gores needs to swallow hard and wish them well in their future endeavors. And if Gores isn’t willing to make the hard decisions to get the team headed in a new direction, then those “Sell the team!” chants are only going to get louder and even more persistent.

 

Keith SmithDecember 16, 2023

The Cleveland Cavaliers got dealt a double dose of bad news on Friday afternoon. First, it came out that Darius Garland is set to miss several weeks due to a fractured jaw. Garland was injured in a collision with Kristaps Porzingis early in the second half of the Cavaliers loss to the Boston Celtics on Thursday. It was subsequently reported that Garland would likely miss a month.

Roughly an hour later it was reported that Evan Mobley would miss six-to-eight weeks due to arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. Mobley has already missed the Cavs last four games due to the knee injury.

It’s tough to lose a single starter to injury. Losing two of them in the span of an hour is even harder to swallow. And when those starters are an All-Star (Garland) and an All-Defensive team player (Mobley), it’s really hard to fathom.

As of Friday, Cleveland is 13-12 and in ninth place in the Eastern Conference. They’ve had only 11 games with their five starters available. After finishing 51-31 and fourth in the Eastern Conference a season ago, this season has been an injury-marred disappointment.

But all hope isn’t lost for Cleveland. They’ve still got Donovan Mitchell. Jarrett Allen is still backing the NBA’s eighth-best defense. Max Strus could take more shots. Caris LeVert is perfectly capable of increasing his scoring and playmaking. Dean Wade and Georges Niang can help hold down the power forward spot until Mobley returns.

However, it’s rarely about the next man up in the NBA. It’s usually more about who is the “next” next man up. Who steps into the roles behind the backups who have to do more? That’s where problems tend to lie.

For Cleveland, the answers aren’t really clear. When they were in this situation in 2021-22 and needed point guard depth, Koby Altman swung a small trade to pick up Rajon Rondo from the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Cavs have some internal options they could look at, beyond the players already in the rotation that will be asked to do more. And maybe a couple of other players who are out will make their way back into the fold.

One thing is clear: Cleveland needs to find some additional depth for the next several weeks to stay in the playoff hunt. Let’s take a look at where the Cavaliers might find it.

Internal Options

At point guard, Cleveland has some pretty capable options already in the fold. Unfortunately, two of those players are also currently unavailable. Ty Jerome is recovering from a severe ankle sprain that’s kept him out for a month-and-a-half. Ricky Rubio has yet to play this season, as he’s handling a personal situation. It’s unclear when, or if, Rubio will return.

If either Jerome or Rubio were able to go, and the Cavs certainly won’t pressure either of them before they are ready, they’d step in for Dairus Garland. As it stands, the only other actually healthy point guard on the roster is two-way player Craig Porter Jr.

Porter has appeared in 14 games for Cleveland already. The 6-foot-2 playmaker has held up fairly well in backup duty, as he’s averaged 7.2 points in 14.3 minutes per game. Porter isn’t much of a threat from deep, but he’s tough and a good finisher. He’s also got more passing chops than he’s shown in the NBA to this point.

Porter can handle more minutes. But he’s all the Cavs have left at the position at the moment. Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert can play point guard, but both are score-first guys. And neither is ideal for defending opposing ballhandlers.

Also, as a two-way player, there are some issues with relying on Porter to take on a key role over the next several weeks. Players signed to a two-way contract are limited to being on the active roster for 50 games per season. Porter is already at 23 games this season. That’s nearly half of his allotted games. If Garland is out just one month, that would be 13 more games.

That’s not exactly untenable. Cleveland would just have to hope that Garland is back after missing only a month. And, for the rest of the season, they’d have to manage the 14 or so NBA games Porter would have left to be active for.

Up front, the story is a little different. Dean Wade has started the last four games in place of Evan Mobley. It’s likely that will continue. Georges Niang will continue to play a key role off the bench as the backup four and small-ball five.

An additional downside to Mobley being out is that he functions as the Cavs de facto backup center too. Niang can only do so much as a backup for Jarrett Allen. That means some additional minutes could be available for Damian Jones behind Allen.

Jones has been up and down throughout his career. He played well for the Sacramento Kings two seasons ago. Then Jones struggled with the Los Angeles Lakers last season, before remerging with some good games after being traded to the Utah Jazz. Look for Jones to get the first crack at additional minutes, but Cleveland needs to prepared to look elsewhere.

If Niang can hold up to some extent as the backup five, the Cavaliers could have two other two-way players step forward.

Odd as it may be, Isaiah Mobley could benefit from his brother being out. The elder Mobley has seen limited action in his two NBA seasons, but he’s been excellent in the G League over that time. The 6-foot-8 forward has proven to be a double-double threat, as he averaged 22.1 points and 9.9 rebounds over 17 games with the Cleveland Charge. He’s also a decent shot-blocker with 20 blocks over that same set of games.

If Cleveland wants even more scoring punch with upside, they could hand some minutes to rookie two-way player Emoni Bates. The 6-foot-8 wing has seen limited NBA action in seven games, but he’s been tearing up the G League this season. In nine games with the Charge, Bates has averaged 24.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.9 steals and 1.1 blocks. Even better than his counting stats: Bates has shot 46.3% from the field, and an impressive 42.2% on a whopping 10 three-point attempts per game.

Outside of the two-way players, Cleveland’s only real hope from their internal options is a return to play for Jerome or Rubio. Otherwise, they’re looking outside of the organization to get by.

Free Agent Options

Cleveland is sitting on an open roster spot. Part of the reason the Cavaliers have an open roster spot is that they are just $752,133 beneath the luxury tax line. The Cavs haven’t paid the tax outside of the LeBron James years in their history. That’s acted as a de facto hard cap on adding salary in recent years.

If the Cavs looked to the free agent market for help, they’d find some stopgap options. The question is if any of those players are worth going into the tax for, or leaving Koby Altman looking for a salary-shedding move to dip under the tax by the trade deadline.

If Cleveland was to sign a free agent ahead of their next game on Saturday, December 16, here’s what they’d be looking at for each tier:

  • Rookie Free Agent: $778,547
  • One Year of Service Free Agent: $1,252,954
  • Two-Years of Service Free Agent (veteran minimum): $1,404,508

That’s the prorated amount for each tier of free agent. Even signing a rookie free agent would see Cleveland go over the tax line.

Now, there are some workarounds here. The Cavaliers could sign a free agent to a non-guaranteed contract, keep them until Garland and/or Mobley returns and then waive that player. Let’s say they need that player for 45 days (allotting a bit more time for Garland to return beyond a month), the Cavs would be on the hook for the following in guaranteed salary:

  • Rookie Free Agent: $289,542
  • One Year of Service Free Agent: $465,975
  • Two-Years of Service Free Agent (veteran minimum): $522,338

That would keep Cleveland clear of the tax line, with a little bit of play, should they need to keep the player longer.

It’s worth noting, if Altman wanted to convert one of his two-way players, they would end up on a prorated minimum contract too. Emoni Bates and Craig Porter Jr. are rookies, while Isaiah Mobley has one year of service.

The other option Cleveland could take is to wait until teams are allowed to sign 10-Day contracts. That starts on January 5, 2024. The 10-Day contract tiers are the following for each 10-Day deal:

  • Rookie Free Agent: $64,343
  • One Year of Service Free Agent: $103,550
  • Two-Years of Service Free Agent (veteran minimum): $116,075

That’s definitely an option for the Cavaliers to fill their open roster, while cycling through different players. Two challenges with 10-Day contracts: First, Cleveland would have to wait three weeks to sign a player to such a deal. Second, teams are limited to signing the same player to only two 10-Day deals per season, before they have to sign them for the remainder of the season.

If Cleveland wants to pursue some free agent options, here are some point guards they could look at:

  • Michael Carter-Williams (Mexico City Capitanes): Carter-Williams isn’t scoring much in the G League, nor shooting well. But he’s played well in setting his team up and he’s played very solid defense. He’s also got loads of experience at the NBA level.
  • Scotty Pippen Jr. (South Bay Lakers): Pippen is playing well for the G League Lakers. He’s scoring and shooting at a solid clip, and he’s been an improved playmaker in his second professional season. He looks primed for a callup.
  • Jason Preston (Memphis Hustle): Preston has been one of the G League’s better playmakers this season. He’s also done a nice job getting to the basket and finishing. Preston also has good size for the position.
  • Brandon Goodwin (Westchester Knicks): Goodwin is forever on the fringes of the NBA. He’s been on rosters as a standard and two-way player. Shooting remains a concern, but Goodwin is a tough defender, good rebounder for his size and a solid playmaker. The Cavs also have familiarity with him from previous stints with the team.

If the Cavs feel they need help up front more, here are some G League options worth a look:

  • Mouhamadou Gueye (Raptors 905): Gueye has been one of the best shot-blockers and rebounders in the G League this season. He’s bouncy and athletic and a good finisher. It’s unlikely he makes it much past the G League Showcase next week without at least a two-way deal.
  • Trey Jemison (Birmingham Squadron): Jemison is in the same vein as Gueye. He’s done a nice job blocking shots and he’s even better on the boards. He’s not quite as strong of a finisher, but he has nice touch out to about 10-15 feet.
  • Maozinha Pereira (Mexico City Capitanes): Pereira is a 6-foot-8 ball of energy. He’s all over the glass on both ends and he’s a physical defender with some shot-blocking ability too. He’s also a good finisher in the paint. Pereira can also step out and shoot it a little bit.
  • Meyers Leonard (unsigned): Leonard finished out the year with the Milwaukee Bucks and looked pretty solid. He seemed to work past the off-court racial slur issue that saw him out of the NBA for near two years too. If he’s in shape and wants to play, Leonard is probably worth bringing in for at least a workout to see where he’s at.

Trade Options

The same luxury tax issues exist if the Cavaliers want to make a trade. They probably be limited in how much money they’d want to bring back. Two years ago, Rajon Rondo was a very easy acquisition, because he was on a veteran minimum contract and the Cavs didn’t have to give up much to get him.

This time around, the Cavs are going to be hard-pressed to find such an easy trade target. However, if they are willing to take on some money in a deal, things will open up considerably. And the easiest way to get there is a potentially uncomfortable path, but a familiar one.

At the 2022 trade deadline, Ricky Rubio was out for the season due to a torn ACL. Cleveland used his expiring contract to acquire Caris LeVert. That July, after Rubio’s contract ended, the Cavs re-signed him to the deal he’s currently on.

If Cleveland wants to make a trade, they might be looking at a similar type of situation. Rubio’s $6.1 million contract is their best piece of salary-matching in a trade, that doesn’t belong to a current rotation player. It might be uncomfortable to trade a player who is away from the team dealing with a personal issue, but the history says it could be something Rubio is amenable to again. $4.25 million of Rubio’s $6.4 million contract is guaranteed for 2024-25, so the acquiring team could treat him as a way to get off some longer-team salary that they may not want.

If Cleveland is open to trading Rubio (and, to be clear, they might need to add someone else to plus-up the salary-matching for a bigger salary), here is a list of some players who make sense as trade targets:

Point Guards

  • Alec Burks (Detroit Pistons): one year, $10.5 million remaining

  • T.J. McConnell (Indiana Pacers): two years, $18 million remaining (2024-25 has $5 million of $8.3 million guaranteed)

  • Jordan McLaughlin (Minnesota Timberwolves): one year, $2.3 million remaining

  • Monte Morris (Detroit Pistons): one year, $9.8 million remaining

Bigs

  • Mo Bamba (Philadelphia 76ers): one year, $2 million remaining (veteran minimum deal, would not require salary-matching)

  • Andre Drummond (Chicago Bulls): one year, $3.4 million remaining

  • Sandro Mamukelashvili (San Antonio Spurs: one year, $2 million remaining (veteran minimum deal, would not require salary-matching)

  • Mike Muscala (Washington Wizards): one year, $3.5 million remaining

  • Kelly Olynyk (Utah Jazz): one year, $12.2 million remaining

  • P.J. Tucker (LA Clippers): two years, $22.5 million remaining (2024-25 is a $11.5 million player option)

 

Keith SmithDecember 14, 2023

December 15 is a big day on the NBA calendar. On that date, the vast majority of the players who signed over the summer become trade-eligible. While NBA “trade season” doesn’t have an official opening day, December 15 might as well be it. Around the league, executives refer to this period as the “Early Trade Season”.

In each of the last five years, the NBA has seen a trade made somewhere between days and weeks of “Early Trade Season” opening:

  • January 5, 2023: Noah Vonleh traded from the Boston Celtics to the San Antonio Spurs in a salary-shedding/tax avoidance move for Boston
  • January 3, 2022: Rajon Rondo traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a deal that also involved the New York Knicks
  • January 16, 2021 (this season worked on an adjusted calendar due to starting a month later): James Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets in a deal that involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and included seven players and multiple draft picks changing hands
  • December 23, 2019: Jordan Clarkson was traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Dante Exum
  • December 17, 2018: Trevor Ariza was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Austin Rivers

Sometimes the trades involve players where the teams had to wait for the restriction to lift, and other times it’s just time for a deal to happen. Often, these deals are the results of months of trade talks that finally come to fruition in mid-to-late-December. But one thing is certain: be on the lookout for movement when “Early Trade Season” opens on Friday, December 15.

Here’s an initial list of players to keep an eye on as trade season kicks into full gear:

Zach LaVine (Chicago Bulls)

Contract status: four years, $178 million
2023-24 salary: $40,064,220

Each year, there is a player we can kind of cheat on because they’ve been in the news cycle. This year, it’s LaVine. He’s currently recovering from right foot inflammation, but all reports are clear that LaVine’s time with the Bulls is coming to an end. One challenge? A LaVine trade could drag out until closer to the February 8 trade deadline, because matching salary for $40 million is tricky until more trade restrictions lift on January 15.

Jevon Carter (Chicago Bulls)

Contract status: three years, $19.5 million
2023-24 salary: $6,190,476

Sticking with Bulls for a moment…Yes, Chicago could go the full teardown route and move DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic along with Zach LaVine, but that doesn’t seem likely. What could happen is Jevon Carter being on the move. Despite being an offseason addition, Carter plays the least in a crowded Bulls backcourt. He has a very movable contract and could help a number of contenders. That’s a oft-seen recipe for a trade.

Reggie Jackson (Denver Nuggets)

Contract status: two years, $10.25 million
2023-24 salary: $5,000,000

This one might seem a little unfair, because Jackson is playing well for the Nuggets. But you have to read the tea leaves a bit in this sort of exercise. Jackson is the only salary Denver has that is large enough to potentially get them a player of value. He also waived his ability to block a trade when he re-signed with Denver this summer. The Nuggets didn’t get that concession for no reason. If Denver makes a meaningful trade, Jackson will probably be involved.

Miles Bridges (Charlotte Hornets)

Contract status: one year, $7.9 million
2023-24 salary: $7,921,301

It was reported over the summer that Bridges and the Hornets never got close on a long-term contract. That led to Bridges signing his qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, before serving the remainder of his suspension from the NBA for the first 10 games of the season. Bridges has played well since his return and looks like the guy who was in line for a max deal before domestic violence incidents cause him to miss last season. Bridges can block any trade, and a team will have to feel comfortable trading for him with his volatile past hanging over him (there’s another pending incident that is being investigated at some level). However, it’s clear Bridges isn’t likely to stay with Charlotte long-term, so that makes him someone teams will check in on for a potential trade.

Gordon Hayward (Charlotte Hornets)

Contract status: one year, $31.5 million
2023-24 salary: $31,500,000

Hayward is having a really good season. He’s shooting well and doing his all-around thing on both ends. Most importantly, he’s held up physically…so far. It’s a big number to trade for, but if a contender needs a player who can do a little to a lot of everything, Hayward should be in play. But it’s buyer beware, because it feels like the next injury is always lurking just around the corner.

Jerami Grant (Portland Trail Blazers)

Contract status: five years, $160 million
2023-24 salary: $27,586,207

When Grant re-signed with Portland this past summer, it felt like it was a “Convince Damian Lillard to stay” move. Lillard ended up asking for, and getting, a trade, but the Blazers maintained they were happy to have Grant staying in the fold. And he’s delivered a very solid season for Portland so far. But the Trail Blazers are rebuilding. It might be early for Grant to get traded, given the length of his contract, but it’s unlikely he’s going to see the end of this deal in Portland. And that means a trade could come while his number is lower and more easily acquirable.


Los Angeles Lakers

Players to watch: D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, Austin Reaves

The Lakers are always active on the trade market. They rebuilt their entire roster around LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves during trade season a year ago. If Los Angeles is going to make a significant deal this time around, some package of the players listed above is going to be how it gets done. We listed them in the order of “most likely to be traded” to least likely. D’Angelo Russell waived his implied no-trade clause, likely in exchange for some additional salary. That didn’t happen because a trade is off the table. Keep an eye on the Lakers over the next month or so.

Detroit Pistons

Players to watch: Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Monte Morris

Detroit hung onto Bogdanovic and Burks last season because no one met their asking price, and they intended to be a postseason contender this season. Well, after 21 consecutive losses (as of this writing), Detroit can’t afford such luxuries this time around. They don’t need to give their veterans away, but it’s time to trade them off to contenders before the deadline. That’ll see the Pistons starting over yet again, but there’s no reason to keep bailing out this boat when it’s already at the bottom of the lake.

San Antonio Spurs

Players to watch: Keldon Johnson, Doug McDermott, Cedi Osman

The Spurs are almost as bad as the Pistons. They’ve lost 18 straight (as of this writing), but they at least have Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio also has a glut of wings that only kind of, sort of fit together. Recent reporting is that Johnson could be on the move to break up that logjam. McDermott and Osman are on expiring contracts and fill the ever-present need of wing shooting with size for contenders. Also worth noting: The Spurs have been a lot more active with in-season trades in recent years, after famously sitting out the trade deadline for the better part of two decades.

Washington Wizards

Players to watch: Tyus Jones, Delon Wright, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, Landry Shamet

Washington is basically Detroit and San Antonio bad, minus the absurdly long losing streaks. The Wizards intentionally set upon this path though. After years of muddling around the middle, Washington’s new front office kicked off a long-awaited rebuild. Jordan Poole’s and Kyle Kuzma’s contracts might be too large to move in-season, but the Wizards have a host of tradable role players that could help playoff teams. All of the above players are on expiring or pseudo-expiring contracts too. That could make them really attractive to a team that wants to make a playoff push, but doesn’t want to lock in long-term just yet.

 

Scott AllenDecember 14, 2023

Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green has been suspended by the NBA indefinitely for his most recent on-court actions in which he struck Jusuf Nurkic of the Phoenix Suns in the face during the Golden State-Phoenix game on December 12th. This suspension comes after Green had been suspended for five games for similar conduct during a game in November in which he put Rudy Gobert of the Minnesota Timberwolves in a chokehold.

What does indefinitely mean?

The indefinite suspension by the NBA means that Draymond Green is going to have to prove that he is worthy of returning to play based on his current and past conduct. It will most likely mean that Green will need to go through some form of counseling amongst other requirements that must be met.

More recently, Ja Morant was suspended indefinitely by the leave in June 2023 for his off-court conduct, which led to a total of 25 games suspended after further review of the incident. Morant is on track to rejoin the Memphis Grizzlies in the coming weeks.

How much does a suspension cost Draymond Green?

The NBA CBA dictates that for a suspension with 19 or fewer games a player will lose 1/145 of his salary for each game missed, while a suspension of 20 or more games a player will lose 1/110 of his salary for each game missed. 

In Draymond Green’s case, we currently do not know who many games he’ll be suspended for, so his situation will be a bit more fluid until an official amount is determined. Green currently has a salary of $22,321,429 and therefore stands to lose $153,941 per game for 19 or fewer games or $202,922 per game for 20 more or games.

How does this affect the Warriors cap sheet? 

It doesn’t. Draymond Green’s cap salary remains untouched at $22,321,429.

How does this affect the Warriors luxury tax situation?

Draymond Green was suspended by the NBA and not by the Golden State Warriors which makes a difference. If Green were to have been suspended by the Warriors, his salary for luxury tax purposes would remain untouched; however, since he was suspended by the NBA the Warriors stand to further save on their luxury tax bill with each game Green is suspended.

Whatever the amount a player is to lose due to a suspension, in Green’s case $153,941 per game or $202,922 per game, the total amount loss is cut in half and that amount is deducted from the luxury tax salary. For example, if Green were to be suspended 10 games (at the 1/145th tier) in total for this infraction/suspension he would lose $1,539,410 in actual salary which would equate to his luxury tax salary being reduced by $769,705. Furthermore, if Green were to be suspended 20 games (at the 1/110th tier) he would lose $4,058,440 in actual salary which would equate to his luxury tax salary being reduced by $2,029,220.

How does this help the Warriors estimated Luxury Tax bill?

At the time of Draymond Green’s first five game suspension the Warriors estimated luxury tax bill was $195.1 million. That suspension already saved Golden State more than $2.5 million in taxes. With an indefinite suspension, the Warriors stand to have even more substantial tax savings depending on the amount of games Green is to miss. 

Where the Warriors currently stand on Dec 14th, 2023:

At $207.89 million of taxable salaries the Warriors current estimated tax bill is just over $192.5 million.

If Draymond Green is suspended at most 19 games:

The estimated luxury tax bill will drop by nearly $9.87 million which would equate to a minimum of $519,551 in tax bill savings per game suspended.

If Draymond Green is suspended 20 games:

This is significant because the reduced luxury tax salary amount goes from $153,941 to $202,922 per game missed, and one additional game would drop the tax bill by $3.8 million. 

If Draymond Green is suspended 26 games:

This is significant due to the fact that this drops the Warriors out of the $6.75 tier for every $1 over that tiered threshold. 

If Draymond Green is suspended for the remainder of the season (59 games):

We’re not saying this will happen, but if for some reason Draymond Green was suspended for the remainder of the season (and Golden State did not add any other players to the roster, which is unlikely given roster needs if Green was out for the rest of the season) the Warriors would be looking at potentially $38.7 million in luxury tax savings. 

 

Keith SmithDecember 11, 2023

It doesn’t always go this way, but sometimes the eye test matches the statistical analysis of a player. Sometimes you look at the stats, check out the film and it all just makes sense.

That’s De’Aaron Fox of the Sacramento Kings this season.

The numbers show improvement all over the floor for Fox. Watching him play matches those numbers. The seventh-year guard isn’t a drastically different player in terms of look or style. But subtle changes are there, and they’ve made all the difference in Fox going from a good player to an All-Star to an All-NBA level of player over the last few seasons.

2022-23 was the first season that Fox finished the year above 50% from the field (he shot 51.2% overall). Working an expertly-crafted two-man game with Domantas Sabonis, Fox took 42.2% of his shots in and around the paint. That was down a bit from the prior season, when the Kentucky product was at 46.6% of his shots in the same area.

Where did those four percentage points go from 2021-22 to 2022-23? To three-pointers. Fox took 27.6% of his shots from behind the arc last season, up from 22.8% the prior season.

This season, Fox’s shot profile has changed even more dramatically. And it’s made all the difference.

Fox is still in the same range in and around the paint, as he’s at 41.2% of his shots coming from that area. This season though, Fox is at a whopping (for him) 36.2% of his shots coming from behind the arc.

How did he get there? The Kings point guard has limited his mid-range attempts to 17.5% of his shot diet (his lowest mark in the last three seasons). More importantly, Fox has all but eliminated the long two-point shot from his profile. This season, just 0.5% of his shots are long twos. That’s the lowest mark of his career.

Essentially, Fox has turned a few less shots near the basket and a lot fewer mid-range and long-twos into three-pointers. And he’s done so with the best three-point shooting of his career, in terms of volume plus efficiency. Fox is hitting 36.9% of his 8.1 three-point attempts per game. That easily tops his previous high of 5.5 triples attempted per game.

When you watch Fox, he remains arguably the fastest player in the NBA with the ball in his hands. He’s still a blur, but it’s a bit more selective now. The Kings no longer race up and down the floor with a “we’ll figure it out when we get there” attitude. Everything is a lot more calculated and that’s keyed by Fox and Sabonis.

Sabonis is one of the league’s best rebounders. It’s common for a possession to start with Sabonis pulling a board off the glass and outlet passing it to Fox, like one would pluck an apple off the tree and toss it to a companion. What doesn’t happen as much anymore is Fox then turning on the jets and attacking the rim while two or three teammates are still making it over halfcourt.

Those pell-mell drives have been replaced with Fox letting Sabonis get to his spot at the top of the key. From there, the two work opponents into submission with traditional pick-and-roll and dribble-hand-off plays. Press up too much to take those actions away, and the Kings back cut and flare into layups and open jumpers.

Sacramento’s offense isn’t as destructive as last season. There are a lot of reasons for this. They aren’t catching anyone by surprise anymore. Teams know the Kings are good and respect them as such. They aren’t making as many shots and the free throws are down a bit. That’s probably related to the lack of surprise from opponents. Everything is a little harder, but the Kings are still making it work.

And that’s largely because of Fox. We talked about the change in his shooting profile, but he’s also moving the ball well and getting on the glass more than ever. His defense is also more engaged, as he’s harnessed his speed and quickness for more than just beating people on the other end. He’s also attempting more free throws than ever, which signifies he’s gotten the respect from officials, as well as opponents.

If you add it all up, De’Aaron Fox is a star. And he’s going to get paid like one.

Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes reported that Fox turned down a two-year, $105 million extension from the Kings this past summer. (Depending on the cap projection you use, Fox could have gotten slightly more at just over $107 million.) It was reported that Fox did so in hopes of earning an even bigger extension from Sacramento down the line.

Fox is in Year 3 of the five-year rookie scale extension he signed with Sacramento in November of 2020. (Note: the NBA was working on an adjusted calendar in 2020, due to the COVID-19 impacted seasons) He has two seasons and nearly $72 million (fully guaranteed) left on that extension after this one.

That deal, plus Fox’s improved play, give him all kinds of options on his next deal. Let’s dive in!

The Veteran Extension

Let’s start by saying Fox can’t extend right now. His window to sign any sort of extension closed when this season started. He’ll have to wait until the 2024 offseason to ink any kind of extension.

Fox could sign a Veteran Extension this coming summer that looks like this:

  • 2024-25: $34,848,340 (Year 4 of current contract)
  • 2025-26: $37,096,620 (Year 5 of current contract)
  • 2026-27: $51,546,000 (Year 1 of a Veteran Extension)
  • 2027-28: $55,669,680 (Year 2 of a Veteran Extension)
  • 2028-29: $59,793,360 (Year 3 of a Veteran Extension)
  • Total: three years, $167,009,040 in new money via a Veteran Extension

This one is a bit complicated, so hang with us here. Fox is in Year 7 of his career right now. When his current contract ends, he’ll have nine years of service. That qualifies, and caps, him for an extension that starts at 30% of the cap. For now, that projects to be $51,546,000 for the 2026-27 season.

Fox could technically sign an extension for 140% of the final year of his current contract. That would be for $51,935,268 in first-year salary. As that number is above Fox’s currently projected max salary for the 2026-27 season, he’d end up capped at the 30% of the cap amount and $51,546,000.

In reality, how this would likely work is that Fox would extend for 140% amount, and if the cap doesn’t go up enough, his salary would force back down to the 30% of the cap maximum.

In this case, we’re using the projected $51,546,000 maximum amount, plus 8% raises, to determine the Fox’s Veteran Extension number.

The potentially bigger challenges? If Fox extended as early as this summer via the Veteran Extension, he’d only be allowed to add three new years to his contract. Contracts extended via the Veteran Extension can only total five years in length, including years remaining on the current contract. And he’d be capped at the 30% of the cap maximum.

That leaves Fox waiting and playing for more. Let’s take a look what’s potentially at stake.

The Designated Veteran Extension signed in 2024

In order to qualify to sign a Designated Veteran Extension in 2024, which would allow for Fox to jump to the 35% of the cap maximum salary tier and to add an additional year, he would have to achieve one of the following this season:

  • Win MVP
  • Win Defensive Player of the Year
  • Make an All-NBA Team

As much as Fox has improved, he’s probably not going to win MVP. We can also safely take DPOY of the table too. But an All-NBA nod is very much in play.

If Fox qualified for a Designated Veteran Extension and signed it this summer, that deal would look like this:

  • 2024-25: $34,848,340 (Year 4 of current contract)
  • 2025-26: $37,096,620 (Year 5 of current contract)
  • 2026-27: $60,137,000 (Year 1 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2027-28: $64,947,960 (Year 2 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2028-29: $69,758,920 (Year 3 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2029-30: $74,569,880 (Year 4 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • Total: four years, $269,413,760 in new money via a Designated Veteran Extension

In this scenario, Fox could add four years of new money on his deal. The contract would start at the projected 35% of the cap maximum of $60,137,000 and would include 8% raises.

Comparing new money in a Designated Veteran Extension to new money in a Veteran Extension, you can see Fox stands to add more than $100 million in new money.

It’s easy to see why Fox is betting on himself. There’s one more scenario worth exploring though.

The Designated Veteran Extension signed in 2025

Let’s say De’Aaron Fox doesn’t choose the path chosen by fellow Kentucky products Devin Booker and Karl-Anthony Towns, who both signed four-year Designated Veteran Extensions as soon as they were able. Fox could choose to delay signing his extension by a year to add even more money, but it comes at a risk.

For one, Fox would have to be certain he could make All-NBA for the 2024-25 season (or win MVP or DPOY). If he misses out for 2024-25, Fox would no longer be eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension in 2025.

But let’s say he either doesn’t qualify for Designated Veteran Extension status this season, or he chooses to wait, but does qualify next season, here’s what Fox would be looking at extending for in the summer of 2025:

  • 2025-26: $37,096,620 (Year 5 of current contract)
  • 2026-27: $60,137,000 (Year 1 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2027-28: $64,947,960 (Year 2 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2028-29: $69,758,920 (Year 3 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2029-30: $74,569,880 (Year 4 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2030-31: $79,380,840 (Year 5 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • Total: five years, $348,794,600 in new money via a Designated Veteran Extension

Whew boy!

Those numbers are staggering, even more so than the four-year Designated Veteran Extension. Nearly $350 million in total money, and approaching $80 million in the final year of the deal. For perspective, Years 4 and 5 would be worth more than the $70 million per season that Shohei Ohtani just got from the Los Angeles Dodgers in Major League Baseball.

To recap: This is the 35% of the cap maximum salary in 2026-27 with 8% raises, but with the addition of a fifth year.

The Designated Veteran Contract

Let’s say De’Aaron Fox missed out on All-NBA in 2023-24 AND 2024-25. He’ll have one more chance to qualify for big money by making All-NBA in 2025-26 (or, of course, winning MVP or DPOY).

If Fox were to make All-NBA in the final year of his current contract in 2025-26, he’d be eligible for the exact same deal listed out as above. However, this would not be as an extension, but as a new contract. The salaries and years would be the same, starting at 35% of the cap maximum in 2026-27 with 8% raises over a five-year contract.

Summary

De’Aaron Fox has established himself as an All-Star. His play, through the eye test and the stats, supports that. And, just as importantly, the Sacramento Kings are winning.

Sacramento has been aggressive in extending their own players, as seen with Fox’s rookie scale extension. He got the max he could, when some were questioning if that was too much. Clearly, the Kings front office got that one right.

Sacramento was equally as proactive in extending Domantas Sabonis. They used cap space to renegotiate Sabonis’ contract for this season to then give him four years and $186 million in new money.

Expect the Kings to be similarly aggressive with Fox. Clearly, from Chris Haynes’ reporting for Bleacher Report, Sacramento already tried to extend the All-Star guard. This relationship isn’t breaking up anytime soon. Both sides want it to continue. It’s just about timing things out for the right deal for both sides.

Fox was right to decline that extension offer. Yes, more than $100 million for two new seasons is incredible money for a guy who has earned about $115 million in his career to date. But Fox is in position to cash in even more.

If Fox makes All-NBA this season, expect him to ink a four-year Designated Veteran Extension that currently projects at $269.4 million in new salary. That’s the path that both Devin Booker and Karl-Anthony Towns took with the Designated Veteran Extensions. It’s the smart one, as the player both capitalizes on what they’ve earned, while removing the risk of having to do it again the next season.

But it’s that second part that is also key. Let’s say Fox’s play falls off and he doesn’t make All-NBA this season. He’ll still have two more cracks at making it in either 2024-25 or 2025-26. And if he does it then, he’ll be able to sign for five years on his next deal, instead of being capped at four years.

It’s also fair to speculate if either the four- or five-year option, should Fox qualify, will come with a player option on the final season. Fox will be 28 years old, and in the frontend of his prime, when his current contract extends. His next deal, no matter what fashion it comes in, will see him wrap it up in his early-30s. An option on the final season, could be in play. Towns got one in his deal, while Booker didn’t. Jaylen Brown didn’t get one in his five-year Designated Veteran Extension, but Bradley Beal did (along with a trade bonus and the coveted and infamous no-trade clause!) in his recent max deal.

It’s looking likely that a player option may be the only source of real negotiation for De’Aaron Fox and the Sacramento Kings. Everything points to Fox making the All-NBA leap over the next year or two. At that point, a “supermax” deal is coming. It’s just a matter of when, not if.

 

Keith SmithDecember 06, 2023

NBA Expansion is coming. On Tuesday, December 5 in an interview with SiriusXM NBA Radio, NBA commissioner Adam Silver all but confirmed the NBA will expand. Silver didn’t make any commitments, but he again referenced Las Vegas and Seattle as potential cities and reaffirmed a post-new media rights deal timeline.

In Part 1 of our NBA Expansion series we talked how NBA expansion works, including potential timelines and how the bid process will work.

Now, we’ll cover the rules for an Expansion Draft and how Protected Player Lists actually work. The goal here is to educate anyone who is inclined to write about expansion or to undertake a mock expansion draft. This will hopefully serve as a guide to making those exercises as accurate as possible, while also providing some history behind previous Expansion Drafts.

(Note: This is assuming that the NBA follows the same rules that they have for previous expansion drafts. There is no indication that the league will change any of the rules or processes ahead of a new round of expansion.)

Timing of an Expansion Draft

Following past practices, the NBA will approve the addition of Expansion Teams a year or more ahead of them beginning play. Once teams are approved, the league will set a date for the Expansion Draft. This will take place in advance of that year’s NBA Draft.

In an ideal world, the NBA would likely want to schedule an Expansion Draft to take place in between the end of that year’s NBA Finals and the NBA Draft. This will allow for the Expansion Draft to take place without distracting from the Finals, but in advance of the Draft. With news that the league is considering a two-night NBA Draft, timing of each event can be sequenced to allow for maximum prep time.

(In 2004, the Expansion Draft was scheduled to be held on June 22, with a one-day pushback to June 23 if the 2004 NBA Finals went to a seventh game. That year’s NBA Draft was held on June 24. As the 2004 NBA Finals did not go to a seventh game, the Expansion Draft was held on June 22, with the NBA Draft on June 24.)

NBA teams would be given a deadline to submit Protected Player Lists in advance of the Expansion Draft, likely somewhere in the range of a week ahead of the Expansion Draft. To the best of our exhaustive research and knowledge, this information, both the deadlines and the lists themselves, have not been made public. Some partial lists exist, but the NBA has never made them publicly available.

Protected Player Lists

Each of the NBA’s existing 30 teams will be allowed to protect players ahead of an expansion draft. Teams are allowed to protect players who fit one of the following categories:

  • Players under contract

  • Players who are restricted free agents (there is a quirk to this that we will cover next)

  • Players who have a player or team option for the following season

  • Any player who is a pending unrestricted free agent cannot be protected

There are some more rules related to protecting players:

  • Each team can protect up to eight players (but can choose to protect less)

  • Each team must expose at least one player (but can choose to expose more) that can’t become an unrestricted free agent

  • If a restricted free agent is drafted, they automatically become an unrestricted free agent (if selected, the former restricted free agent can not re-sign with their original team)

  • Player status is as of the day of the draft (this pertains to players with player or team options)

Expansion Draft Order

As for the draft process itself, it’s fairly simply. In past expansions that featured more than one team, the NBA held a coin flip between the two teams. The winning team was given the option to select either the higher pick in that year’s NBA Draft or the higher selection in the Expansion Draft.

Note: Expansion teams are often saddled with conditions on how high they can select in a draft. Here are some examples:

  • 2004: The Charlotte Bobcats were given the fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft

  • 1995: The Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies were given the sixth and seventh overall picks and were restricted from picking first overall for their first four years in the NBA

  • 1989: The Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic were given the 10th and 11th overall picks

  • 1988: The Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat were given the eighth and ninth overall picks

In 1995, when the Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies joined the league, the Grizzlies won the coin flip. They chose to have the higher pick in the 1995 NBA Draft, which gave Toronto the first pick in the 1995 Expansion Draft.

In 1989, when the Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic joined the NBA, the Magic won the coin flip. They chose to have the first pick in the 1989 Expansion Draft. That gave the Timberwolves the higher pick in the 1989 NBA Draft.

In the prior year in 1988, when the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat joined the NBA, the Hornets won the coin toss and selected to have the higher pick in the 1988 NBA Draft. That gave the Miami Heat the first pick in the 1988 Expansion Draft.

The Expansion Draft

Once the draft order is set, the teams are set for the draft. This is done in a back-and-forth order, not in a snake draft format. Here are some of the rules for the Expansion Draft:

  • Each NBA team can only lose one player from their unprotected list. Once a player has been selected, the remaining players from that team are removed from eligibility to be selected.

  • If a team is over the cap and has a player selected, they receive a Traded Player Exception (TPE) for the exact value of that team’s salary. (Note: This does not apply to restricted free agents. It must be a player who is under contract for the over-the-cap team to receive a TPE.)

  • The teams then alternate selections until one player has been selected from each team. In the case of the Charlotte Bobcats in the 2004 Expansion Draft, they selected 19 players and the draft was then ended. Charlotte could have selected between 14 and 29 players, but chose to stop at 19 selections.

  • Morbid as it may be, the NBA reserves the right to conduct a similar process in what they call a “restocking draft”. This process would be undertaken should a team suffer a tragedy that permanently prevents five or more players from being able to play (death, dismemberment or permanent disability).

You might be wondering what happens if a team has more than eight players that they want to keep. If that is the case, the existing team can work a deal with one, or both, of the expansion teams to select or not select certain players.

How this has worked in the past is the team has made a trade with one of the Expansion Teams to select a certain player, or to not select certain players. Here’s a brief example of pre-Expansion Draft trades that teams have made with this in mind:

  • 2004: The Bobcats acquired the second overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft from the LA Clippers in exchange for the fourth overall pick and the 33rd overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. As part of the deal, the Bobcats agreed to select Predrag Drobnjak in the draft. (The Bobcats drafted Emeka Okafor and the Clippers selected Shaun Livingston and Lionel Chalmers.)

  • 2004: The Bobcats agreed to select Jahidi White from the Phoenix Suns in exchange for a future first-round pick. (That pick conveyed in 2005 and Charlotte drafted Sean May.)

  • 1995: The Grizzlies agreed to select Rodney Dent from the Orlando Magic in exchange for a future second-round pick. (That pick conveyed in 1996 and Vancouver drafted Randy Livingston.)

In addition, teams will sometimes make selections during the Expansion Draft with future trades in mind. The Charlotte Bobcats made two such select-and-trade deals in 2004:

  • The Bobcats selected Zaza Pachulia from the Orlando Magic. Pachulia was then traded to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for the 45th overall pick in the 2004 NBA Draft. (Charlotte drafted Bernard Robinson.)

  • The Bobcats selected Sasha Pavlovic from the Utah Jazz. Pavlovic was then traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers for a future first-round pick. (That pick conveyed in 2007 and Charlotte drafted Jared Dudley.)

On the flip side, existing teams will often leave players unprotected in an Expansion Draft that are have an undesirable contract. A team could attempt to incentivize an Expansion Team to select that player by offering a draft pick or another player in a trade. If that happens, the existing team removes the salary from their books and, if over the cap, creates a TPE for the amount of the selected player’s salary.

Post-Expansion Draft

Once the Expansion Draft is complete, the Expansion Teams more or less run like every other NBA team. Expansion Teams do work under a reduced salary cap (as well as a salary floor that is 90% of the Expansion Team’s cap) for their first two years of existence. In Year 1, Expansion Teams are limited to 66.6% of the league-wide salary cap. In Year 2, that goes up to 80% of the league-wide salary cap. In Year 3, everything normalizes, and Expansion Teams are treated the same as the rest of the league.

(Note: The above is a change from the previous of a Year 1 cap of 80% of the league-wide salary cap and a Year 2 cap of 90% of the league-wide salary cap for Expansion Teams.)

As noted above, if a team selects a restricted free agent, that player becomes an unrestricted free agent. That player cannot re-sign with the team they were with pre-Expansion Draft. The Expansion Team would have their unrestricted free agent rights (Bird, Early Bird or Non-Bird) as appropriate, and a corresponding cap hold.

If a team selects a player with a player or team option, that player or team can still choose for the player to become a free agent by not exercising their option. The Expansion Team would then have their unrestricted free agent rights (Bird, Early Bird or Non-Bird) as appropriate, and a corresponding cap hold.

If an Expansion Team waives a player they selected in the Expansion Draft prior to the beginning of the season, that player’s salary is removed from their cap sheet. The player is still paid, and the salary still counts towards the team’s salary floor, but the team no longer has a cap hit for the waived player.

What’s Next

Now that we’ve covered the timeline and process for expansion, as well as the rules for an Expansion Draft, we’ll move into some of the strategy components in future articles in the series.

In the next installment, we’ll cover what the cap sheet for an Expansion Team would look like in Year 1 and Year 2. We’ll do a couple of mock examples to explain how an Expansion Team might handle their cap in Year 1 and Year 2. We’ll do these examples as if Expansion was happening this coming year, ahead of the 2024-25 season. That way, we can use real world examples as far as players and salaries go.

After that, we’re going to dive deep into the history and strategy of the past couple of rounds of expansion. We’ll cover protected lists (to the extent we are able, as this information is not publicly available) and the Expansion Draft strategies themselves. We’ll look at this both for the Expansion Teams, as well as the existing teams.

Then we’ll look at the post-Expansion Draft work that teams did and what their inaugural rosters looked like. From there, we’ll examine how long it took Expansion Teams to become competitive: How long before the playoffs are a reality? How long before the team won a playoff series? And when did they become a real contender?

Then, we’ll start the Mock Expansion Draft process. We’ll put together some Mock Protected Player Lists (based off current rosters) and the strategy behind them. And then we’ll run a Mock Expansion Draft, and explain the strategy that we took for each team involved. We’ll do several versions of this, right up until we have Expansion for real!

 

Keith SmithNovember 30, 2023

The Chicago Bulls were 27-13 on January 14, 2022. The Bulls got crushed by the Golden State Warriors that day, to drop a second game in what would become a four-game losing streak.

From that point forward, Chicago has gone 64-79. That’s a .448 winning percentage. Not bad enough to be in great draft position, and certainly not good enough to be a real playoff contender. That’s squarely in the NBA purgatory that’s so hard to escape.

January 14, 2022 also happens to be the last time Lonzo Ball appeared in a game for the Bulls. Ball is in Year 3 of the four-year, $80 million contract he signed as a part of a sign-and-trade to Chicago ahead of 2021-22 season.

Ball has appeared in 35 of 183 total regular season games while on that contract.

This isn’t to put blame for Chicago’s failures on Ball and the series of knee surgeries he’s had over the past two years. It’s more to point out that there is a clear delineation point of where things went wrong for the Bulls. It’s rare that you can pinpoint where things turned sour, but it’s very clear in Chicago’s case.

Now, here we are. A team that has gone from briefly good to decidedly average to bad in a three-season span. The worst part? The Bulls are currently bad without hope.

Now, it’s fair to note here that the Bulls have very, very rarely bottomed out under Jerry Reinsdorf’s reign as the team’s owner. Even when Chicago got the first overall pick to draft Derrick Rose in 2008, that involved a considerable amount of lottery luck.

Under Reinsdorf, Chicago has preferred to stay competitive, even when everything else screams going in the other direction. For about a 15-year period, John Paxson and Gar Forman had the Bulls in the playoffs every year, even if only one of those seasons saw the team considered a real title contender.

At the end of the “GarPax” run leading the front office, the Bulls were a mess. They didn’t bottom out, as much as years of bad decisions pushed Chicago to the bottom of the standings. Enter Arturas Karnisovas.

After a predictably messy first season, which was spent resetting things, Karnisovas made his big splash in the summer of 2021. Karnisovas added Ball and DeMar DeRozan in a pair of sign-and-trade deals and signed Alex Caruso as a free agent. That threesome alongside Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic propelled Chicago that impressive start in 2021-22.

Almost two years later, all five players are still on the Bulls. And Chicago is no longer that fun team that’s full of potential. Instead, the team stinks, the cap sheet is a mess and they’re mostly devoid of young talent.

It’s time to break up the Bulls.

We’re going to present some sensible trade ideas that could get Chicago turned in the right direction. It’s important to note that we’re going to present trades as if Karnisovas has the buy-in from ownership to tear things down. Mostly, this is what we would do, and what we think the Bulls should do, as opposed to what Chicago will actually do.

Trade Assets

High-value

Alex Caruso: two years, $19,350,000 ($16,350,000 guaranteed)

DeMar DeRozan: one year, $26,800,000

Zach LaVine: four years, $178,063,200

Nikola Vucevic: three years, $60,000,000

Mid-range

Jevon Carter: three years, $19,500,000

Torrey Craig: two years, $5,373,575 (veteran minimum contract)

Ayo Dosunmu: three years, $21,000,000

Andre Drummond: one year, $3,600,000

Coby White: three years, $36,000,000

Patrick Williams: one year, $9,835,881

Minimum-value

Lonzo Ball: two years, $41,860,465

Julian Phillips: four years, $8,119,739

Terry Taylor: two years, $4,216,676 (veteran minimum contract, $700,000 guaranteed)

Dalen Terry: three years, $12,260,358

Draft Pick Situation

The Bulls first-round picks are a bit messy. They own their own pick in 2024. They owe a pick with sliding protections to the San Antonio Spurs (top-10 protected in 2025, top-8 protected in 2026 and 2027). Chicago then owns their own first-round pick from 2028 to 2030. The Bulls are also owed a first-round pick from the Portland Trail Blazers. That pick is lottery-protected from 2024 through 2028.

In the second round, the Bulls have traded their picks from 2024 through 2027, That means the earliest Chicago can have selection would be in 2028, and that’s only if they’ve conveyed a first-round pick to the Spurs by then. They’ll get an additional pick in the second round in 2028 if Portland hasn’t conveyed them a first-rounder by then. The Bulls then own their own second-round picks in 2029 and 2030.

Essentially: Chicago is doing ok on first-round picks, but could use more. They are pretty light on second-round selections.

The Cap and Tax Situation

The Bulls are a tick below the luxury tax for this current season. Given that they’ve paid the tax just twice in franchise history, that’s a marker they’ll be looking to stay under.

Going into the 2024 offseason, Chicago projects to be roughly $37 million under the tax. That sounds good, but that’s with four open roster spots and without new contracts for DeMar DeRozan, Patrick Williams, Torrey Craig and Andre Drummond.

Re-signing simply the first two players, and then filling out the roster with minimums, would put the Bulls at or over the tax line.

In the summer of 2025, pending moves between now and then, the Bulls could be a cap space team. Lonzo Ball’s contract will have expired by then, and that’s a major stumbling block for Chicago having some cap flexibility.

The Trades

We’re getting to the good stuff now! Remember, the idea here is to reset things for the Bulls in a major way. Is this team going to be bad the rest of this season? They sure are! But they are probably going to be bad anyway. Our goal here is to give Chicago some hope for the future. We’re hoping to achieve that by adding some additional draft capital, young talent and resetting the cap sheet.

Trade 1

Chicago Bulls receive:

Ivica Zubac (two years, $22,676,543), Russell Westbrook (two years, $7,863,263), Amir Coffey (two years, $7,604,938)

LA Clippers receive:

Nikola Vucevic (three years, $60,000,000), Terry Taylor (two years, $4,216,676 – veteran minimum)

Rationale:

This trade is about clearing out the short- and long-term money owed to Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls save about $2 million this season, but they end up saving roughly $21.8 million over the next three seasons. And Ivica Zubac’s, Amir Coffey’s and Russell Westbrook’s deals all expire after the 2024-25 season. That gets Chicago out of the final year of Vucevic’s deal.

The assumption is that Chicago would either straight waive Westbrook or would buy him out. Because he makes far less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE, Westbrook would be free to join any team that needs a point guard for the stretch run.

On the Clippers side, they add Vucevic, who gives them a better offensive fit alongside their star trio of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden. The Clippers also clear out a bit of backcourt logjam this way, without having to waive Westbrook.

Trade 2

Chicago Bulls receive:

Bennedict Mathurin (three years, $23,349,373 – rookie scale), Jordan Nwora (one year, $3,000,000), Jalen Smith (two years, $10,461,159), Marcus Morris (one year, $17,116,279), first-round pick from Indiana, first-round pick from Philadelphia

Indiana Pacers receive:

Zach LaVine (four years, $178,063,200), Torrey Craig (two years, $5,373,575 – veteran minimum), Mo Bamba (one year, $2,009,706 – veteran minimum)

Philadelphia 76ers receive:

Buddy Hield (one-year, $19,279,841), Andre Drummond (one-year, $3,360,000)

Rationale:

Chicago isn’t likely to turn Zach LaVine into a better package than this. He’s good, but not great. In this deal, the Bulls get a young wing with upside in Bennedict Mathurin and two first-round picks. Jordan Nwora and Jalen Smith are both flyers. Maybe they pop, maybe they don’t. The assumption is that Morris would either be waived, take a buyout or the Bulls would bench him until his contract expires.

As for the picks, Indiana owns all of their owns picks. Chicago could negotiate for something more immediate or something down the line. Philadelphia is now armed with the ability to trade a pick, likely one of the ones they got in the James Harden deal.

As for finances, the Bulls achieve massive savings here. They send out roughly $46 million in salary for this season. They bring back about $32 million. That’s nearly $14 million in savings for this season. The long-term savings are even greater, as they clear out nearly $138 million owed to Zach LaVine beyond this season, while adding only $22 million.

For the Pacers, this is how they can add an All-Star-level player. Indiana isn’t attracting stars in free agency, so they have to trade for or develop them. Buddy Hield doesn’t seem long for the Pacers, so the real give-ups here are Mathurin and the first-round pick. LaVine would be an upgrade alongside Haliburton and would make the Pacers offense even more unstoppable than it already is.

Torrey Craig would also be a nice defensive-minded addition for the wing rotation. And Mo Bamba becomes the third center, behind Myles Turner and Isaiah Jackson.

As for the Sixers, they get the shooter they need. The real cost for acquiring Hield is the first-round pick. Marcus Morris and Mo Bamba are end-of-the-bench guys at this point. Hield and Andre Drummond are major upgrades over both players. And, as an added bonus, Philadelphia doesn’t take on any salary beyond this season. They still have all the same cap flexibility that they previously had.

Trade 3

Chicago Bulls receive:

Brandon Clarke (four years, $50,000,000), Luke Kennard (two years, $29,527,272 – second-year team option), first-round pick from Memphis

Memphis Grizzlies receive:

DeMar DeRozan (one year, $28,600,000), Jevon Carter (three years, $19,500,000)

Rationale:

This is about doing right by DeRozan and sending him to a team he can help. Yes, the Grizzlies are currently worse than the Bulls, but they have some hope of righting the ship when they get Ja Morant back and some others return from injury.

Clarke is owed a decent chunk of change, so Chicago is actually adding some long-term salary in this deal. But Clarke could be a starting big when he returns in 2024-25. At $12.5 million per season, that’s a value deal. Kennard will likely play out the season providing some shooting to a roster that is somewhat light on it. Then, the Bulls can either decline his option, or pick it up and look to trade him in a deal next summer. And, like in the previous trades, getting an additional first-round pick is huge for the rebuilding Bulls.

Memphis gets the scoring punch they desperately need in DeRozan. And Carter gives them some continued insurance at point guard. For a first-round pick, of which the Grizzlies own all of their picks, you can’t ask for more than this return.

Trade 4

Chicago Bulls receive:

Dyson Daniels (three years, $19,551,349 – rookie scale), Kira Lewis Jr. (one year, $5,722,116), first-round pick from Milwaukee (via New Orleans)

New Orleans Pelicans receive:

Alex Caruso (two years, $19,350,000 – second season $3 million guaranteed)

Rationale:

The Bulls get yet another first-round pick, plus they get a young guard/wing with some upside in Dyson Daniels. He fits in nicely in the new rebuilding group of young players Chicago has. The Bulls can also take a look at Kira Lewis Jr. before making a decision on his free agency in the summer.

Financially, the Bulls take on some money, but it’s in the form of Daniels’ rookie scale deal. That’s a win.

The Pelicans add a veteran guard/wing to the rotation. Alex Caruso is a top-tier defender and a combination of him and Herb Jones would be very hard to score on. Caruso can also play alongside any of the Pelicans stars, as he’s a good off-ball player. For Daniels and an extra pick, New Orleans can’t do much better. Bonus: this deal has them within one minor salary-dump of getting out of the luxury tax.

Trade 5

Chicago Bulls receive:

Isaac Okoro (one year, $8,920,795)

Cleveland Cavaliers receive:

Ayo Dosunmu (three years, $21,000,000), Dalen Terry (three years, $12,260,358 – rookie scale)

Rationale:

This one is about the Bulls getting out of the long-term money owed to Ayo Dosunmu and Dalen Terry. After this series of deals, Chicago has better options at lead guard, making Dosunmu a luxury. Isaac Okoro is a guy who could still pop with increased playing time, and then the Bulls can make a decision on his free agency this summer.

The Cavaliers could use another guard behind Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Dosunmu can give them some solid backup play at either spot. Okoro had fallen out of the rotation, as Cleveland added some additional wing depth this past summer. Terry is a flyer for a Cavs team that is going to be around the luxury tax line. If he develops, they’ll have a cost-controlled player as the roster gets expensive.

Overall

Making five trades, especially ones of this scale is highly unlikely for any team. For the notably change-resistant Chicago Bulls, it’s almost unfathomable. But these are the kinds of moves the Bulls should consider making. It would constitute a nearly full teardown. Only Lonzo Ball would remain of the players owed significant money, and he becomes an expiring contract in the 2024-25 season.

We won’t attempt to make the claim that this end-result Bulls would be good. They’d likely be among the worst teams in the NBA. But that’s not exactly a bad result.

Chicago could have a great pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. They’d have a bunch of interesting young players, and some vets on tradable contracts. And they’d have picked up four additional first-round picks as they rebuild.

The cap sheet would also be incredibly clean. For 2024-25, the Bulls could be looking at north of $75 million in cap space. If they kept their powder dry and slow-played things for one more season, they could easily have more than $100 million in cap space in the summer of 2025.

Blowing up a team is never easy. At best, it’s a signal of moving away from some great years (see: Boston Celtics in 2013). At worst, it’s an admission of failure. Much like a summer abroad, the Bulls had a great couple of months. It’s time to move on and let them be fun memories to return to on a dreary Chicago day.

The way forward isn’t to keep chasing after that short window of being really good team. That’s over. It’s not happening for this group. The best path now is one that involves taking things down to the very foundation and starting to build back up again. These trades, or ones like them, could put the Bulls on a path to being something better than the middling-to-bad team they are now.

 

Keith SmithNovember 22, 2023

For a year or so, the off-court priority for the NBA was on hammering out a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. That’s now in the rearview mirror.

Now, the NBA’s focus has turned to negotiating new media rights deals. That’s on both a national and a local level. The national rights deals that are currently with Disney (ESPN, ABC) and Turner (TNT, NBA TV) are up after the 2024-25 season. That means negotiations are already underway, with more potential partners entering the fold when the exclusive window for Disney and Turner ends.

On the local level, Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy is impacting the regional Bally Sports networks coverage of the league. The NBA and Diamond Sports Group reached an intermediate agreement for coverage this season, but it looks like season’s games could be handled differently for roughly half of the league’s teams.

Right behind the new CBA and the new TV deal, the NBA has expansion pushing in. Gone are the days of NBA commissioner Adam Silver saying the league isn’t looking at expansion. He’s not even saying things like “We might dust that off at some point”, as Silver did during the pandemic.

Silver has said for a while that the league “could” look at expansion after the CBA negotiations and the media rights deals were complete. That’s now turned into multiple times when Silver has said the NBA “will” look into expansion after the media rights deal is complete, now that the CBA is finished.

That doesn’t mean expansion is coming in the next year or so. But NBA expansion is coming. That much is clear.

Roughly a year-and-a-half ago, we wrote it's time for the NBA to expand. Everything in that article holds up today. There is labor peace, the league is deep in talent, interest in the league is high and Seattle and Las Vegas still loom as suitors for the NBA.

With all of that said, let’s take a look at how NBA Expansion would work. This is the first in a series related to NBA Expansion that we’ll run over the next several years, until the league actually does expand. Today, we’re going to outline the timeline and the process. After that, we’ll get into the fun stuff of how an Expansion Draft actually works.

The Expansion Timeline

Whenever the NBA does decide it’s time to expand, it won’t be an overly quick process. When the original Charlotte Hornets relocated to New Orleans, it happened at the end of the 2001-2002 season. The NBA underwent an expedited process to expand and to get a team back into Charlotte as quickly as possible.

The league began taking bids almost immediately (mostly to avoid a lawsuit related to the relocation of the original Hornets), and in mid-December of 2002 they picked Robert Johnson’s bid as the winner. In January of 2003, the NBA Board of Governors approved Johnson and the new team.

In June of 2003, the team was named the Bobcats. Approximately a year later, on June 22, 2004, the 2004 Expansion Draft was held. And the team took the floor at the start of the 2004-2005 season.

That was a quicker turnround than the previous time the league had expanded. When the original Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic joined the league, there were three-year (for the Hornets and Heat) and four-year (for the Timberwolves and Magic) gaps between the league announcing expansion and the start of play.

(The NBA staggered the introduction of the four new teams to avoid diluting the state of play by bringing four new teams in all at once.)

Charlotte and Miami both started play with the 1988-89 season. Minnesota and Orlando joined the fray for the 1989-90 season.

When the Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies joined the NBA, there was roughly a two-and-a-half-year gap between the start of the process and the teams starting play. The league was known to be considering expansion in late-1992. In September of 1993, they awarded Toronto a franchise. In February of 1994, Vancouver was given the second Canadian franchise. In late-June of 1995, the Raptors and Grizzlies took part in the 1995 NBA Expansion Draft. The teams then started play in the 1995-96 season.

So, let’s say the league wraps up their media rights deal as quickly as possible, and everything is set sometime in 2024. If we take Adam Silver at his word, we can expect the expansion process to start after that.

Now, let’s say the league wants to move quickly on expansion too. If we use the two-year window, that would mean the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons are played as normal. Then, with the start of the 2026-27 season, we’d likely have two new teams in place. If anything is delayed, those debuts could be pushed to the 2027-28 season or possibly even the 2028-29 season.

That means somewhere between the 2026-27 and 2028-29 seasons are the most likely seasons when we’ll see new teams join the NBA.

The Expansion Process

When the NBA decides it’s time to expand, they’ll start the process by allowing cities and ownership groups to bid for teams. Yes, we can all assume that Seattle and Las Vegas are probably the most likely cities to get teams. But that’s an assumption, and nothing more.

Several other cities will be in the mix. Adam Silver himself recently mentioned a return to Vancouver as being on the table. He said Montreal has reached out the NBA on being a potential expansion city. Silver also talked about Mexico City being an area that the league is partnering with, with the current G League team potentially being a precursor to an NBA team at some point.

Stateside, there are a lot of cities that have expressed interest in having their own NBA team. Louisville, Kansas City, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Virginia Beach and San Diego have all been in the mix at various points.

So, even if Seattle and Las Vegas are the heavy favorites, the NBA isn’t going to discard the other suitors. The reasons for this are two-fold.

First, by encouraging more cities to bid for teams, the cost of each expansion team will go up considerably. As of now, the league is expected to get somewhere between $3 and $4 billion for each team. And that’s being somewhat conservative in projecting how much money comes in. Considering the expansion fees go directly to the ownership groups of the existing 30 teams, they want those figures to be as high as possible.

Because of this, expect the league to entertain bids from non-Seattle and non-Las Vegas groups. But there’s a secondary motivation to that, as well.

By taking in as many bids as possible, the NBA can find out who is really serious about adding a team. For example, if a city comes in with a bid worth “only” $2 billion, they’ll be almost immediately out of the mix. Now, let’s say four cities come in with bids approaching or surpassing the $4 billion mark, now the league has options.

Even if the primary option is to initially expand to Seattle and Las Vegas, the league would have serious suitors in other cities. And it’s clear that the NBA remains committed to expanding their global reach, likely by furthering their presence in Canada first. If there are more than just Seattle and Las Vegas on the table, the NBA can push the expansion fees higher, while also keeping a couple of cities in their back pocket.

Let’s go back to when the league added the Heat, Timberwolves, Magic and original Hornets. There is some mixed reporting on whether or not the league wanted to add four team. Some say the NBA was committed to two new cities, but found two more suitable candidates that they felt they couldn’t pass up.

Could history repeat itself? It’s certainly possible. Adding roughly $16 billion in expansion fees for four teams (and, again, that’s potentially a conservative figure) would mean each of the existing 30 teams will pocket over $500 million. And that’s money that doesn’t go to the players.

The downside? The existing 30 teams would eventually have to split the hoped-for $75 billion from the media rights deal more than planned for. But $500 million goes a long way towards offsetting any potential loss in TV revenue. Agan again, that’s money straight into the owners’ pockets.

What’s Next

We’ll touch on the actual Expansion Draft process in the next installment. When the NBA is in a bit of a dead period, it’s a popular exercise to do a mock Expansion Draft. However, a lot of these are done in a somewhat sloppy way. They seem to be hit-or-miss on following the actual Expansion Draft rules and processes.

We’re going to lay out all of the rules in our next installment of the NBA Expansion Series. The goal is to make everything as understandable as possible, as well as to provide a guide for any would-be mock Expansions Drafts. We’ll also cover how the salary cap works for these teams, and what the NBA has done as far as draft picks for expansion teams, as well.

After that, we’ll explore the history of past Expansion Drafts. We’ll look at protected lists, strategies (for both incumbent and expansion teams) and the actual draft results themselves. From there, we’ll explore what teams did with their inaugural rosters, as far as trades and signing free agents.

We’ll also look at the history of how long it’s taken an expansion team to become a good team. How long before the playoffs are a reality? How long before the team won a playoff series? And when did they become a real contender?

Then, with all of rules and history behind us, we’ll start the fun process of some mock Expansion Drafts ourselves. We’ll do protected lists and draft lists (for both two- and four-team Expansion Drafts). And we’ll continually tweak and track the progress of these lists as we build toward an inevitable actual Expansion Draft.

We’re going to have some fun with this and look forward to having you join us on the ride!

 

Keith SmithNovember 15, 2023

The 2023-24 season is less than a month old, but Tyrese Maxey of the Philadelphia 76ers is already one of the league’s breakout stars. When things could have gotten messy for the Sixers, as the James Harden drama swirled, Maxey stepped up to give Joel Embiid a new star-level running mate.

There’s little thought that Maxey might be a flash in the pan. He’s shown the ability to more than a third- or fourth-banana previously. It’s only now that Maxey is getting the usage to show he can be an All-Star (and maybe more!) himself.

That leaves the 76ers in an interesting spot. Daryl Morey delayed signing Maxey to a lucrative rookie scale contract extension this past offseason. The reason for that made sense. Philadelphia will still control the summertime process, by making Maxey a restricted free agent. And the team can use his smallish cap hold to maximize their cap space, while still giving Maxey the contract he earns.

All of that makes sense. Maxey transferred a bit of risk to himself by playing out his rookie scale deal, but he’d be set to cash in even bigger if he had a great year.

And having a great year is exactly what Maxey is poised to do.

Now, some of that risk (but not too much) has flipped back towards Philadelphia. Let’s break it all down!

Signing a Rookie Scale Extension this season

We’re only including this to note that Tyrese Maxey is no longer extension-eligible. The deadline for players to sign rookie scale extension was back on October 23.

That means Maxey is now destined for free agency this coming summer. Barring some unforeseen disaster, Philadelphia will issue Maxey a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620. That’s a bump up from the $6,259,588 qualifying offer Maxey was set to get. The reason for this is that Maxey will assuredly meet starter criteria and will earn the larger qualifying offer.

In reality, none of that really matters, beyond the Sixers tendering Maxey a qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent. He’s not signing the qualifying offer.

What does matter is Maxey’s cap hold. That figure will be $13,031,760. That’s what will sit on the Sixers books and that’s what will drive Philadelphia’s offseason.

Finally, for what’s it now worth, before 2023 free agency/extension season opened we projected Maxey to sign a five-year, 25% of the cap maximum extension. Nothing has changed to make anyone believe Maxey will make less than that amount, so let’s use that as our starting point.

Re-signing with the 76ers on a 25% Maximum Contract

As we said above, we projected Tyrese Maxey would sign a five-year rookie scale extension worth 25% of the cap. This was before Daryl Morey unveiled his cap space plan. But that deal should still be on the table, once Philadelphia uses up their cap space. Here’s what that contract projects to look like for Maxey:

  • 2024-25: $35,500,000
  • 2025-26: $38,340,000
  • 2026-27: $41,180,000
  • 2027-28: $44,020,000
  • 2028-29: $46,860,000
  • Total: five years, $205,900,000

That’s a five-year max deal at 25% of the projected $142 million cap for 2024-25. It includes the maximum 8% raises for Maxey, as well.

That’s right at where we projected Maxey on an extension (with a minor adjustment, as the projected cap has come in lower than originally anticipated).

But…Maxey might be poised to cash in even bigger, if he keeps up his torrid pace.

Re-signing with the 76ers on a 30% Maximum Contract

If Tyrese Maxey makes an All-NBA team, he would qualify for Designated Player status. That would make him eligible to jump to a 30% of the cap maximum. That would look like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,600,000
  • 2025-26: $46,008,000
  • 2026-27: $49,416,000
  • 2027-28: $52,824,000
  • 2028-29: $56,232,000
  • Total: five years, $247,080,000

That’s a 30% of the cap maximum contract with 8% raises. That’s a difference of $7.1 million in first-year salary and about $41 million in total salary over the life of the deal.

This is big, because Maxey likely would never have received Designated Player language in a rookie scale extension. He hadn’t sniffed an All-Star selection, let alone All-NBA selection. Now? Maxey looks like an All-Star lock, and there aren’t six guards playing better than he is in the NBA through the first few weeks of the season.

Note: If Maxey qualifies for Designated Player status by making All-NBA this season (he could also qualify by winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, but neither are likely), he doesn’t have to automatically get the full 30%. He’s simply eligible to get up to that much. Maxey and Philadelphia could negotiate for anything up to 30%. But history tells us that if a player is eligible for it, they’re going to get the 30% max.

Signing with another team as a free agent

If things were to get sideways between Tyrese Maxey and the Philadelphia 76ers, he could choose to leave town. In that case, it doesn’t matter if Maxey qualifies for Designated Player status or not. You can only get a Designated Player deal from the team that drafts you, or if you were acquired while still on your rookie contract.

Here’s the maximum deal Maxey could fetch from a rival team as a free agent:

  • 2024-25: $35,500,000
  • 2025-26: $37,275,000
  • 2026-27: $39,050,000
  • 2027-28: $40,825,000
  • Total: four years, $190,848,000

That’s a four-year, 25% of the cap max with the max allowable 5% raises. As you can see, Maxey would make about $6.4 million less by leaving the 76ers, even on the comparable 25% starting salaries over four years. Adding in the fifth year, which Maxey can only get from Philadelphia, is where the real difference in total salary comes in.

The Philadelphia 76ers Cap Situation

As we’ve noted several times, Philadelphia didn’t extend Tyrese Maxey, because they plan to use cap space this summer. There are a few paths the Sixers can take with their cap flexibility:

Clearing the decks

In this scenario, the 76ers go about as scorched earth as they can with the roster and leave only Joel Embiid’s contract and Tyrese Maxey’s cap holds on the books:

  • Joel Embiid: $51,415,938
  • Tyrese Maxey (cap hold): $13,031,760
  • Total cap space available: $65,864,062

This would mean Philadelphia would salary-dump Jaden Springer’s contract onto someone, waive Paul Reed (or salary-dump him, should his contract become fully guaranteed), renounce all of their free agents and trade away their 2024 first-round draft pick (or select a draft-and-stash player).

In this situation, the 76ers would have enough cap space to sign a 10+ Years of Service free agent at the projected max of $49,700,000, with just over $16 million in remaining cap space. Philadelphia would also have the Room Exception available, which projects to be just over $8 million.

So, let’s say the 76ers use all of their available cap space, and then they re-sign Maxey to a 30% of the cap max, they could be looking at the following:

  • Joel Embiid: $51,415,938
  • Max Free Agent: $49,700,000
  • Tyrese Maxey: $42,600,000
  • Leftover Cap Space Free Agent: $16,164,062
  • Room Exception Free Agent: $8,063,000
  • Nine Veteran Minimum Free Agents: $18,977,157
  • Total salary: $186,920,157

That would leave the 76ers over the Luxury Tax by $14,353,157 and over the Tax Apron by $6,991,157.

As incredible (and rare!) as it would be, that’s how a team can go from using cap space to deep into the luxury tax in the same summer.

Retaining some talent

In this scenario, the 76ers don’t clear the decks. They keep the following on the books:

  • Joel Embiid: $51,415,938
  • De’Anthony Melton (cap hold): $15,200,000
  • Tyrese Maxey (cap hold): $13,031,760
  • Paul Reed: $7,723,000
  • Jaden Springer: $4,018,363
  • 2024 First Round Pick (projected at 28): $2,668,715
  • Total cap space available: $40,929,280

This seems a bit more realistic. Philadelphia retains the ability to re-sign Maxey and Melton, while keeping Reed and Springer (a regular rotation guy and someone Nick Nurse seems to like) in the fold. And they use their draft pick to add some cost-controlled back-end roster talent.

Let’s say Philadelphia uses every bit of that cap space to sign one player, here’s what their books could look like:

  • Joel Embiid: $51,415,938
  • Tyrese Maxey: $42,600,000
  • Free Agent Signing: $40,929,280
  • De’Anthony Melton: $15,200,000 (same as his cap hold for simplicity’s sake)
  • Room Exception Free Agent: $8,063,000
  • Paul Reed: $7,723,000
  • Jaden Springer: $4,018,363
  • 2024 First Round Pick (projected at 28): $2,668,715
  • Six Veteran Minimum Free Agents: $12,651,438
  • Total salary: $185,269,734

This would result in the 76ers being $12,702,734 over the Luxury Tax and $5,340,734 over the Tax Apron.

Of course, in both scenarios presented above, if Tyrese Maxey doesn’t qualify for the 30% max salary, he’ll come in at $35.5 million vs $46.7 million. That lops off $7.1 million off either tax bill. Even then, Philadelphia still goes from being a cap space team to a tax team in the same summer.

Now, the Sixers could further cut the tax bill down by signing their two 2024 second-round picks to a deal that would start at about $1.2 million. That would shave roughly $2 million more off the tax bill.

Summary

Tyrese Maxey is going to get paid this summer. He’s either getting a 25% of the cap maximum contract or a 30% of the cap maximum contract. ESPN’s Bobby Marks noted that Maxey would be the first player in history to qualify for a Designated Player deal when coming off their rookie scale contract that didn’t sign an extension. That’s pretty remarkable, even considering the Sixers cap space aspirations.

Normally, we predict what a player will sign for, or suggest an alternative structure, at that point of a Next Contract analysis. There’s no need here. Maxey is going to re-sign with Philadelphia, and it will either be for the projected $35.5 million first-year salary or the $42.6 million first-year salary.

The real difference will come with how deep into the tax the 76ers go. It’s extremely rare for a team to use both cap space and end up as a taxpayer in the same season. You have to have a player with a small enough cap hold to use cap space, while also knowing that same player is also going to sign a max deal.

And that’s exactly where the Sixers are.

Even if Daryl Morey uses some of next season’s flexibility in a form of “pre-agency”, the math doesn’t really change. Maxey is still getting a max deal, whether the Philadelphia 76ers use their cap space now, or in July. And, if they use that space now, they could stay over the cap to retain some additional free agents.

Almost any path leaves the Sixers as a very expensive, somewhat top-heavy team. But they should have enough depth to remain title contenders for the remainder of Joel Embiid’s contract, and into the years when Philadelphia transitions to become Tyrese Maxey’s team.

 

Keith SmithNovember 08, 2023

The 2023 NBA offseason is long behind us. Extension season wrapped up over a week ago. Early trade season doesn’t open for over a month, with full trade season opening in mid-January.

That means it’s time to take an initial look at where each of the NBA’s 30 teams project to land as far as spending power for the 2024 offseason. Of course, these projections will change as teams make trades, sign extensions and the like throughout this season. However, it’s still good to have a grounding of where teams stand today.

A few notes:

  • We are using the NBA’s official projections for the salary cap and tax lines. Some are projecting greater growth than the 4.4% represented here, but we will always use the official projections from the league.

    • Salary Cap of $142,000,000

    • Luxury Tax of $172,567,000

    • Tax Apron of $179,929,000

    • Second Apron of $190,837,000

  • Max salary tiers grow with the cap. They are as follows:

    • 0-6 Years of Service: $35,500,000

    • 7-9 Years of Service: $42,600,000

    • 10+ Years of Service: $49,700,000

  • A projection has been made on all 2024-25 player and team options. Similarly, a projection was made on all partial and non-guaranteed contracts. And, finally, a projection made on renounce free agents has also been made for cap space teams.

  • 2024 NBA Draft picks were based on ESPN’s BPI forecast for expected final record. All conditions on picks owned and owed were then reflected to determine the draft order and the subsequent cap holds.

  • No trades, extensions or signings have been projected. Essentially, rosters are as they stand at the time of publication.

With the advent of the new CBA, the landscape has changed around the NBA. There used to be three basic categories of teams each summer: Cap Space teams, Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams. Each season there would also be a handful of “swing” teams that could fall in one bucket or another.

In this new world, we have a fourth category: Second Apron teams. These are the NBA’s most expensive teams that the new CBA was largely designed to punish.

Under the new CBA, if you are at or over the Second Apron, you lose access to the Taxpayer MLE. In addition, the trade rules tighten up for these teams. Salary-matching in trades is limited to 100%, they aren’t allowed to aggregate salaries together in trades, they can’t sign-and-trade a player way (in addition to being unable to acquire a player via sign-and-trade) and they won’t be able to use TPEs.

Essentially, Second Apron teams are going to limited to making 1-for-1 trades where they take back the same money as they send out (or less), signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum salaries.

With all that said, here is the projected spending power for each NBA team in 2024 free agency!

Cap Space Teams (3)

  1. Orlando Magic: $40.6 million

  2. Philadelphia 76ers: $39.8 million

  3. Detroit Pistons: $38.5 million

This is the smallest group of teams we can confidently project to have cap space in a decade of doing this exercise. As more and more teams prioritize extensions and trades, cap space (and the number of impact free agents) has dried up. Still, as we write every time we talk about cap space, having this kind of room doesn’t just mean signing free agents. Cap space can also be used to facilitate trades, either for yourself or others.

Orlando tops our projections by virtue of having a roster full of players on rookie scale contracts and team-friendly extensions. This includes all of the Magic’s best players. In the recent past, Orlando has eschewed cap space to re-sign or extend their own players. That seems poised to change, as the Magic are finally in position to really push the rebuild forward with an impact addition or two. And they need to do that before they have to start extending players like Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero in coming years.

The Sixers have been bandied about as having double-max cap space and the like for months now, but that’s never really been a thing. Sure, Philadelphia could clear the decks and have only Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey (via his cap hold) on the books. That could create about $65.8 million in cap space, which is still well short of double-max space. Instead, a more conservative approach that sees the 76ers keeping De’Anthony Melton’s cap hold, along with Paul Reed, on the books seems likely. Also, Daryl Morey recently said he would like to spend some of this flexibility early, so don’t rule out Philadelphia taking on money in trades in this season in a form of “pre-agency”.

The Pistons have become an annual staple in this spot. Some years, Detroit has used space to chase veteran free agents. Other years, Troy Weaver has used his cap space to eat contracts and collect some assets. This year’s approach will probably be determined by how this season goes for the Pistons. If they show progress akin to Orlando, Detroit will probably look to add players. If not, another year of renting out cap space to pick up draft picks could be coming. One thing to keep in mind: 2024 is the final summer before a presumably max or near-max extension will be on the books for Cade Cunningham. We’re getting down to “spend it while you can” time for the Pistons.

Cap Space – Non-Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (6)

  1. Charlotte Hornets

  2. Houston Rockets

  3. Oklahoma City Thunder

  4. San Antonio Spurs

  5. Utah Jazz

  6. Washington Wizards

This is a pretty large group of swing teams. Some of them are on their way up. Others are just starting the rebuilding process. For a handful, they can create meaningful cap space. For the rest, they are more likely to stay over the cap. It’s really a decision of creating spending power vs retaining your own players.

Charlotte is in a bit of a weird spot. They have some big money coming off the books for Gordon Hayward, which could create a good amount of cap space. Yet, for another season, the Miles Bridges question hangs over this team. He signed the qualifying offer, so Bridges will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. If the Hornets move on from all of their free agents, they can reasonably create about $21.8 million in cap space. If they re-sign Hayward or Bridges, they’ll be a Non-Taxpayer MLE team.

The Rockets spent a good deal of money in free agency last summer. Despite that, they could do the same this summer. A handful of the contracts Houston signed players to are non-guaranteed. That means the team could create up to $26 million in space. But that would mean moving on from several rotation players. That amount of cap space is right on the tipping point of being able to replace those players in a meaningful way. Because of that, we’re projecting the Rockets to stay over the cap for now.

The Thunder finally went under the cap last offseason. They used that space to act as a clearing house for some contracts, in exchange for even more draft picks. This summer could go differently. Oklahoma City could create in the range of $20 million of space. But that would mean moving on from a few valuable players the Thunder have been developing. Instead, look for OKC to stay over the cap and maybe use the Non-Taxpayer MLE to bring in a value signing.

As of this writing, San Antonio projects to have the first overall pick in the draft. If Victor Wembanyama and the other young Spurs keep developing so rapidly, that projection will probably change. Running with it for now, that puts the Spurs in range of about $18-to-$20 million in cap space this summer. If they were to re-sign Doug McDermott, or even one of their lesser free agents, then San Antonio would stay over the cap.

Utah is in a fun spot. They could create up to $36 million in cap space. Or they could stay over the cap and retain a few of their own free agents. Given that their own free agents will probably command relatively reasonable contracts, look for the Jazz to go the cap space route…kind of. The guess here is that Utah will create cap space, but will end up using a large chunk of it to renegotiate-and-extend Lauri Markkanen’s contract. Then, whatever is left over, plus the Room Exception, can be used to re-sign their own free agents or to acquire other players.

The Wizards are in Year 1 of their teardown. They took on Jordan Poole’s contract, but that came through the chained-together transactions where they shed Bradley Beal’s contract. Washington also re-signed Kyle Kuzma and extended Deni Avdija, but those were value contracts. If the Wizards want, they can create about $24.6 million in cap space. That would mean seeing all of their free agents leave town, but those guys don’t seem long for D.C. anyway. If Washington chooses to keep Tyus Jones’ cap hold on the books, they’ll be over the cap.

Non-Taxpayer MLE Teams (4)

This is usually the largest group of teams we have, and it may well still end up that way. But for now, we can confidently project only four teams to be in range of using the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

  1. Brooklyn Nets

  2. Indiana Pacers

  3. New York Knicks

  4. Sacramento Kings

All four of these teams have two things in common. They look to have only a few roster spots to fill and they have plenty of clearance under the Tax Apron. That puts all of these teams in range to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE without tripping into any hard cap issues.

In addition, unlike the swing teams, there isn’t a reasonable path to cap space for any of these teams. Indiana would be the closest, but they’d be punting on some very valuable players to create cap space. That seems highly unlikely.

Non-Taxpayer MLE – Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (6)

This group is close to tripping into the Luxury Tax, or even over the Tax Apron. Most of that is related to pending free agents that these teams could re-sign. And for a handful, they are close enough to the Tax Apron, that the hard cap would become an issue if they used the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

  1. Atlanta Hawks

  2. Chicago Bulls

  3. Cleveland Cavaliers

  4. Miami Heat

  5. New Orleans Pelicans

  6. Toronto Raptors

The Hawks, Bulls, Cavaliers, Heat and Pelicans are all going to have free agent decisions to make. If they re-sign, or extend, those players to expected-value contracts, they’ll be butting up against the tax or even the tax apron. That will take them out of range of using the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Raptors are in a very different spot. Toronto could conceivably hit a major reset and create up to a whopping $71 million in cap space. But that would mean seeing players like Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. walk away for nothing. That seems unlikely, but Toronto has lost Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet in free agency over the last few offseasons. We’re going to be conservative and suggest that if Masai Ujiri and the Raptors believe they are losing those guys this summer, they’ll trade them for other players (and some longer-term salary) before losing them for nothing.

Taxpayer MLE Teams (2)

The addition of the Second Apron has created a smaller-than-usual window for teams to be in position to use the Taxpayer MLE, but without creating issues against the Second Apron hard cap.

  1. Dallas Mavericks

  2. Portland Trail Blazers

The Mavericks project to be around $16 million under the Second Apron, but they also only have two roster spots to fill. That leaves enough room to use the Taxpayer MLE to add a player, with enough wiggle room to stay under the hard cap that would be created at the Second Apron.

It might be a surprise to see the rebuilding Trail Blazers in this spot, but they took on a good amount of salary in the Damian Lillard trade, and the subsequent Jrue Holiday trade. Portland also re-signed Jerami Grant to a big contract too. As it stands, the Blazers sit just over the Luxury Tax line. That won’t be a thing, as a rebuilding team can’t pay the tax. But it will limit what kind of spending power Portland has this summer. Instead of free agent signings, look for the Trail Blazers to keep retooling their roster through trades.

Second Apron Teams (9)

By far, this is our largest group of teams for 2024 offseason projections. This is a direct result of two things. First, the Second Apron exists now, and some teams are over or up against it. Second, several teams took the “gap year” (or maybe better put the “get your books in order year”) to load up. That’s got us in a spot where roughly one-third of the league will be unable to add a free agent for more than the minimum this summer.

  1. Boston Celtics

  2. Denver Nuggets

  3. Golden State Warriors

  4. LA Clippers

  5. Los Angeles Lakers

  6. Memphis Grizzlies

  7. Milwaukee Bucks

  8. Minnesota Timberwolves

  9. Phoenix Suns

All nine of these teams are already over or right up against the Second Apron. Or they will be once they re-sign some key free agents. From there, this group of nine will be limited to making 1-for-1 trades where they take in similar (but not more) money, signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum contracts.

 

Keith SmithOctober 31, 2023

The James Harden trade saga (the 3.0 version, at least), is finally over. After months of back-and-forth drama, Harden will land with his desired team in the LA Clippers. In exchange, the Philadelphia 76ers will acquire a package of expiring salary and draft picks.

Because they are seemingly always involved in a trade that features draft picks, the Oklahoma City Thunder will help clear the path for the Clippers to trade an additional pick to the 76ers. The Thunder will pick up 2027 first-round pick swap rights, in exchange for sending a protected version of the 2026 Clippers first-round pick they own to the Sixers. (This is likely to end up in a “last favorable” situation of the 2026 picks Oklahoma City owns.)

But the big parts here are Harden to the Clippers, and the 76ers cleaning up their cap sheet to make a 2024 free agency run. Let’s dive in!

The trade details:

LA Clippers acquire
James Harden, P.J. Tucker, Filip Petrusev

Oklahoma City Thunder acquire
2027 first-round pick swap rights with the LA Clippers

Philadelphia 76ers acquire 
Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, Kenyon Martin Jr., Marcus Morris Sr., two first-round picks (protected 2026 Clippers (via Thunder), 2028 Clippers), two second-round picks (2024 Pacers, Jazz or Cavs (TBD), 2029 Clippers) and a 2029 first-round pick swap

LA Clippers

Incoming salary: 

James Harden: $35.6 million

Filip Petrusev: $1,119,563 ($559,782 guaranteed)

P.J. Tucker: $11 million for 2023-24, 11.5 million player option for 2024-25

Total incoming 2023-24 salary: $47,774,063

Outgoing salary: 

Nicolas Batum: $11.7 million

Robert Covington: $11.7 million

Kenyon Martin Jr.: $1.9 million

Marcus Morris Sr.: $17.1 million

Total outgoing 2023-24 salary: $42,450,086

 

First, let’s break down how this will functionally work! The Clippers will acquire James Harden and P.J. Tucker and their combined $46,654,500 salaries as one bundle. Petrusev will be acquired as a single salary via the Minimum Salary Exception.

LA will send out the four players at a combined amount of $46,695,095 (that’s the four salaries, plus the allowable 110% bump for salary matching).

That means this deal just squeaks in by $40,595 within the salary-matching rules. And it requires Harden to waive his 15% trade bonus. If Harden wants that 15% bonus, the Clippers will have to find about $5.1 million in salary. That seems unlikely to be a thing, given Harden is finally going where he wants to be.

(There is a version of this trade where the 76ers break the deal down further and use 125% salary-matching rules. That version would create a larger TPE for the Sixers, but it would hard cap them. And Philadelphia would be just $2.8M under the hard cap in the scenario. That’s probably tighter than they want to be, simply to create a TPE that will likely go unused. We’ll know when the trade is actually completed which path the 76ers chose.)

As far as the basketball side of this trade…wow! A Halloween blockbuster!

The Clippers are even more all in now. They’ll have a core of stars including Harden, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. They sapped some of their depth, but recovered a bit by taking on Tucker. And LA was able to keep Terance Mann too.

Harden, for all of his off-court nonsense and recent injuries, has generally been pretty durable. He’ll give the Clippers some coverage if (when?) Leonard and/or George have to miss some time. Instead of the offense becoming the Russell Westbrook show, LA will have a guy who can still create offense all on his own.

When the team is fully healthy, they’ve got a lot of options on offense now. The Clippers will be small-ish (Leonard will effectively be the starting power forward), but they should be fine. Leonard can guard up, and if they need to go with more a traditional four, Ty Lue can go with Tucker. And, lest we forget, Harden has been at his best in recent years at guarding, bigger, less-mobile players. So, the options are actually fairly plentiful for Lue to choose from matchup-wise.

On offense, the Clippers become even more deadly. In theory, at least. There are some questions about putting Westbrook in even more of an off-ball role, but Lue should be able to stagger his lineups enough to make sure he has two of the main scoring engines out there at all times. That should allow everyone to get enough touches to keep them involved.

As for depth, LA will have Tucker and Mann in place, along with Norman Powell, Mason Plumlee and Bones Hyland. That’s pretty solid, as far as a 10-man depth chart goes.

Mostly, this trade lends more short-term certainty to the Clippers. They are covered if one of the stars has to miss some time. That should keep the offense afloat, instead of things falling apart as they did in the 2023 playoffs.

Long-term, there’s just as much uncertainty as ever. Harden can’t be extended, because he signed only a two-year deal as a free agent in 2022 (two-year contracts can’t be extended).

That makes this a one-year experiment. If everything works out great and the Clippers make that long-awaited NBA Finals run, they can re-up with Harden, as well as Leonard and George in free agency this summer. If it doesn’t work, the team is out some more draft capital, but there isn’t any additional long-term salary commitment, minus Tucker’s sure-to-be-picked-up player option for 2024-25.

The Clippers have strayed back into familiar, yet scary, territory as far as draft picks go. Effectively, they are right back where they were a couple of years ago. LA has no control over their first-round picks until 2030. That was the exact situation they were in when they acquired George from the Thunder back in 2019.

But LA is the type of team that can conceivably spend their way out of troubles down the line. And if things really go south, the Clippers can always trade away their stars to recoup some draft picks.

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming salary: 

Nicolas Batum: $11.7 million

Robert Covington: $11.7 million

Kenyon Martin Jr.: $1.9 million

Marcus Morris Sr.: $17.1 million

Total incoming 2023-24 salary: $42,450,086

Outgoing salary: 

James Harden: $35.6 million

Filip Petrusev: $1,119,563 ($559,782 guaranteed)

P.J. Tucker: $11 million for 2023-24, 11.5 million player option for 2024-25

Total outgoing 2023-24 salary: $47,774,063

 

The Sixers don’t achieve a ton on-court with this trade…at least at the moment. It’s unclear how much, if anything, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington and Marcus Morris Sr. will contribute to Philadelphia basketball-wise. At least one or two of them will probably play, because the Sixers did open up opportunities at the power forward spot in this trade.

Player-wise, K.J. Martin is the most interesting guy the 76ers acquired. He’s got that athletic bounciness that the Sixers otherwise lack. He could start, or become a really interesting bench guy. Martin is also the type of player Nick Nurse will love throwing into games at a bunch of different spots and just asking him to create chaos.

The real gets here for Philadelphia were the draft picks, and the cap flexibility. That’s what they were seemingly always after, and Daryl Morey pulled it off.

Philadelphia picked up two direct first-round picks in this deal, plus a far-out pick swap. By taking picks in 2026 (the protections/conditions the Thunder added to this pick are TBD as of this writing) and 2028, along with the 2029 swap, the 76ers can wait to see if the Clippers crater down the line. It’s unlikely that all of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden will still be playing at an All-Star level by the time the latter of those two picks are due. Heck, it’s unclear if they’ll even be at that level by the time the first pick comes due in 2026.

That’s more than a recouping of the draft capital Philadelphia spent to acquire Harden in the first place. That’s great work by Morey.

Beyond the picks, but of no less importance, the Sixers not only conserved their 2024 cap space in this deal, but they created even more. P.J. Tucker is a near-guarantee to pick up his player option for next season. That’s something Philadelphia would have had to deal with, as they dream of max cap space.

As it stands now, the 76ers will likely clear the decks almost as clean as they can approaching the summer of 2024. There are really two scenarios to consider.

Scenario A: Philadelphia goes for every dime they can get, while retaining Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

In this scenario, the Sixers renounce all of their free agents (including De’Anthony Melton) who aren’t Maxey, and they waive Paul Reed (assuming his contract remains non-guaranteed). We’ll also assume they trade their 2024 first-round pick for some sort of future pick down the line. (Both scenarios assume Philadelphia does not pick up Jaden Springer’s rookie scale team option for 2024-25).

In that case, the 76ers would have only Embiid at $51.4 million and Maxey’s cap hold at $13 million on the books. When you add back the roster charges (10 of them at the league minimum), Philadelphia would have a projected $65.2 million in cap space. The 10-plus Years of Service maximum salary projects to be $49.7 million for 2024-25.

That’s enough to sign a maximum veteran, with about $15.5 million to spend leftover. In addition. Philadelphia would have the Room Exception, which projects to be just over $8 million.

Scenario B: Philadelphia retains a couple of key players, in addition to Embiid and Maxey.

In this scenario, the Sixers renounce everyone who isn’t Maxey and Melton, and they also keep Reed. We’ll also assume they keep their first-rounder too, just for comparison’s sake.

This scenario leaves Philadelphia with about $43.3 million in cap space. That’s not enough for a 10-plus Years of Service maximum, but it is enough for 7-to-9 Years of Service maximum (projects to be $42.6 million for 2024-25). And, again, the 76ers would have the $8 million Room Exception to spend.

So, it’s kind of choosing between $22 million in additional cap space, or retaining Melton’s free agent rights, Reed and the first-round pick. There are plusses and minuses to both approaches. The guess here is that Daryl Morey will have an understanding of who is in play in free agency, long before having to make decisions on renouncements and waivers. (No, this isn’t a cheap tampering joke! It’s just a reality of how these things work.)

There is one other scenario in play…and it’s the most interesting one of all.

Morey reportedly wanted players, or assets to add players, in any Harden deal. He accomplished the former in terms of salary-matching and the latter in terms of actual assets. If Morey is committed to being a title contender, the 76ers are just below that level. They are a solid playoff team, but shy of the true contender tier. But that could all change with another deal or two.

In a very real sense, Morey added $46 million in tradable salary in this deal, and he also has the draft picks necessary to juice any offers he wants to make. That’s enough to get in the conversation for just about whatever star comes available next. It’ll take 60 days before Philadelphia can re-aggregate the guys they just acquired, but that’s still well in advance of the trade deadline.

There’s a world where the Sixers do a little “pre-agency” work and acquire a player ahead of the trade deadline. That would give Philadelphia the player now, to aid in a playoff run this season, while also presumably giving them the leg up on keeping said player moving forward. It’s also possible, Morey could flip some of the newly-acquired players and draft assets for a better player who is also on an expiring contract. Then, if things don’t work out great, they can move on, without having harmed the 2024 cap space plan.

The main takeaway: Philadelphia now has options that they didn’t have before. They recouped draft assets, they added tradable salary that can be used in just about any combination imaginable, and they did nothing to hurt their future flexibility. That’s mission accomplished as far as Daryl Morey’s stated trade objectives.

Oklahoma City Thunder

We’ll keep this one relatively short and sweet. The Thunder kicked the can down the road as far as a draft pick goes…maybe. Oklahoma City will reportedly add some protections/conditions to the 2026 first-round pick they are now conveying to Philadelphia on behalf of LA. Likely, that means if that pick becomes really good (top-five, top-10, lottery?) the Thunder will keep it, and send another pick to Philadelphia. Otherwise, the Sixers get it.

In exchange, Oklahoma City gets control over yet another Clippers pick in 2027, via swap rights. There is a very real chance the Thunder could be a considerably better team than the Clippers in 2027. Oklahoma City is young and improving rapidly. In four years, the Clippers will have gone from old to ancient, and will likely be on a downswing.

This is Sam Presti at his best. This is why he’s kept control of so many picks, even while having to waive some former first-rounders recently, due to roster constraints. Presti can insert his team into almost any deal by offering to help things along, while rebalancing his draft assets down the line. No one does that better than Presti does.

 

Keith SmithOctober 24, 2023

The deadline has come and gone for extending rookie scale contracts for members of the 2020 NBA Draft class. In total, 14 players reached extensions worth more than $1.4 billion in total salaries. Both are records, according to our data on Spotrac.

There were a few themes, perhaps signs of impacts of the new CBA already being felt.

THEME #1

Teams are now allowed to offer non-maximum five-year deals. Under the previous CBA, any rookie scale extension of five years had to be a max contract. That was felt right away.

We still saw three Designated Player extensions (Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and Tyrese Haliburton), but there were three other five-year deals reached. Desmond Bane got what we’ll refer to as a functional max, as he has bonus language putting him just below a guaranteed max deal. Devin Vassell and Jaden McDaniels both got less than the max, but each got five years. That’s a new thing, and the coming years will tell us if those deals set a precedent.

THEME #2

Zeke Nnaji got the only player option in the class. And his came in a deal that was pretty creative (more on that later).

Player options on rookie scale deals had previously been reserved for the guys who established themselves as stars in their first three seasons. Both Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell got player options on the rookie scale extensions they signed in 2020. Luka Doncic and Trae Young each followed with a player option on their five-year max extensions. Since then, no one else has gotten one until Nnaji.

This is a return to norm. Player options are again being reserved for special cases, either superstars or creative contract structures.

THEME #3

Three players (Aaron Nesmith, Zeke Nnaji and Payton Pritchard) signed contracts that will come in under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount. An additional three players (Deni Avdija, Cole Anthony and Josh Green) signed deals that will be roughly equivalent to the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

It used to be that to get a player to sign an extension, you had to beat the MLE amount. Otherwise, players would bet on themselves and enter restricted free agency. And deals far below the MLE equivalent were very rare.

That’s changing on both the player and team sides. Teams like Boston, Denver and Dallas are going to be dancing around the luxury tax and both tax aprons for the foreseeable future. Locking up their players now is good business. It keeps the player in the fold, while also giving the team some tradable salary down the line.

For Nesmith, Avdija and Anthony, this was a chance to lock in some guaranteed money in what could have been an uncertain season leading into an uncertain summer. None are locks to play a big enough role to have that true breakout season it would take to really cash in as restricted free agents. And their teams could all choose to go the cap space route, which might have taken any of the three out of the mix for a new deal.

For Nesmith, Anthony and Green, all took three-year deals (Anthony’s deal actually as a team option on the third season). In exchange for signing team-friendly extensions, all three players will be able to get back on the market while entering the prime years of their careers.

It’s also a reading of the landscape. The cap for 2024-25 doesn’t project to jump the full 10% possible, as of now. If the cap growth is less than some think, it could depress the market some. And restricted free agency is already far more team-friendly than player-friendly, as players like Austin Reaves and P.J. Washington discovered this past summer.

Now, for an accountability check, we’re going to go back through each player from the 2020 Draft class (plus Chuma Okeke from the 2019 Draft class) to see how our predictions measured up against what actually happened.

(Note: Max deals are currently slightly under what was projected, as the cap 2024-25 cap projections came in lower than expected)

2020 Draft Class

#1 Anthony Edwards – Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $248,820,000, no options

Actual: Five-year, Designated Rookie extension

We aren’t going to spend time crowing here. This was one of the bigger no-brainers on the board.

#2 James Wiseman – Detroit Pistons

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

Wiseman will have a chance to show he’s worth spending on in free agency. The tricky part now? If Detroit has cap space aspirations, Wiseman’s $30.3 million cap hold probably has to go.

#3 LaMelo Ball – Charlotte Hornets

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $248,820,000, no options

Actual: Five-year, Designated Rookie extension

Same as with Edwards, this one was a no-brainer. Ball is the only sure-thing player on the Hornets roster.

#4 Patrick Williams – Chicago Bulls

Prediction: Five years, $100 million, no options

Actual: No extension

This could be one the Bulls regret not getting done. Williams may have wanted more money, especially after seeing what Devin Vassell and Jaden McDaniels got, and that’s likely why Chicago backed off. But if Williams has a big year, he’ll be an interesting restricted free agent this summer.

#5 Isaac Okoro – Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

No surprise here. Cleveland already signed Okoro’s theoretical replacement in Max Strus. That leaves Okoro playing for his next deal this season.

#6 Onyeka Okongwu – Atlanta Hawks

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $62 million

We wrote this in the prediction piece: “Normally, we’d say the Hawks should lock up Okongwu. But this team has so much long-term salary already committed for a middle-of-the-pack roster. Because of that, Atlanta may need to rebalance the roster a bit before taking care of Okongwu.” So much for that!

As it stands, Okongwu got one of the best deals from the team side. $15.5 million AAV for a guy who will probably be a good starting center in a year or two is tremendous value for an increasingly expensive Hawks team. And it frees up Atlanta to trade Clint Capela down the line to eventually rebalance the roster.

#7 Killian Hayes – Detroit Pistons

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

No real surprise here. Hayes has looked good this preseason, and Monty Williams seems to be a fan. But there hasn’t been enough real production to warrant an extension.

#8 Obi Toppin – Indiana Pacers

Prediction: No extension, unless he’s traded. Then, four years and $70 million seems like a worthy gamble as an upside bet.

Actual: No extension

Despite being traded from the New York Knicks to the Indiana Pacers, Toppin didn’t get an extension. That’s fine. The Pacers are taking a wait-and-see approach. If Toppin breaks out, Indiana can control the process in restricted free agency.

#9 Deni Avdija – Washington Wizards

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $55 million

This one was a bit of a surprise. The Wizards committed MLE-equivalent money to Avdija, but structured the deal as a declining contract. He’s the best defender on the roster, even if he’s in a crowded perimeter forward mix. If nothing else, this is a very tradable deal for Washington down the line.

#10 Jalen Smith – Indiana Pacers

Smith had his third- and fourth-year options declined by the Phoenix Suns. He was traded to Indiana during the 2021-22 season. Smith then signed a three-year, $15.1 million with the Pacers in the summer of 2022.

#11 Devin Vassell – San Antonio Spurs 

Prediction: Five years, $115 million, no options

Actual: Five years, $135 million to $146 million

We wrote this in the original piece: “This is another one where the five-year allowance for non-max deals in the CBA could be big.”

That’s exactly how this played out, even if Vassell got more than we expected at the time. One key to the deal: The Spurs structured this deal to decline the maximum amount possible, to coincide with the season Victor Wembanyama’s already-presumed Designated Player rookie scale extension starts. Vassell’s contract then goes back up for the final season, which could aid in the next round of extension negotiations.

#12 Tyrese Haliburton – Indiana Pacers

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $248,820,000, no options

Actual: Five-year, Designated Rookie extension

Another no-brainer. Haliburton is a star.

#13 Kira Lewis Jr. – New Orleans Pelicans

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

Lewis is more likely to get moved in a trade to avoid the luxury tax than he was to extend. New Orleans is about $2.9 million over the tax line. They won’t finish the year as a tax team.

#14 Aaron Nesmith – Indiana Pacers

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Three years, $33 million

This one was a real surprise. Nesmith was healthy and a nice fit with the Pacers last season. He makes sense in a lot of different lineup constructions. As we talked about in the opening, it used to be rare for a player to take less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE equivalent. In Nesmith’s case, given his health issues in his first two seasons, as well as his final college season, it makes sense to lock in the money now.

#15 Cole Anthony – Orlando Magic

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Three years, $39.1 million, team option on the final season

We said the Magic would probably let this play out, unless Anthony agreed to something team-friendly. Both sides sort of split the difference. Anthony gets a deal for roughly the equivalent of the MLE, but the Magic got a team option on Year 3. That’s smart business by both sides, given the Magic’s unsettled backcourt, Anthony’s talent and Orlando’s potential as a cap space team.

#16 Isaiah Stewart – Detroit Pistons

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $60 to $64 million, team option on the final season

This one was a surprise in both the timing and that it got done. Stewart signed this extension in early-July, which is usually a part of the calendar reserved for max extensions. The amount was a bit surprising too, but Stewart is the most-proven player among Detroit’s big men. He’s worth locking up for slightly more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount.

#17 Aleksej Pokusevski – Oklahoma City Thunder

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

Pokusevski is again hurt and will miss the start of the regular season. There are still far too many unknowns for the Thunder to commit any kind of reasonable money to Pokusevski.

#18 Josh Green – Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: Four years, $70 million

Actual: Three years, $41 million

We were in range, but Green took less than we thought he’d get. This is another deal that looks pretty favorable towards the team. In exchange for taking less money, Green gets to get back on the market ahead of his age-27 season. That puts Green in line for a lucrative contract, should he keep developing.

#19 Saddiq Bey – Atlanta Hawks

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

We thought the Hawks tax situation would make it tough for them to extend both Bey and Onyeka Okongwu. Instead, it seems to have been a “one or the other” situation, and Atlanta went with the big man. The Hawks also seem to be letting the forward situation play out a bit here, with Bey battling De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson for minutes in a John Collins-less frontcourt.

#20 Precious Achiuwa – Toronto Raptors

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

No surprise here, as things are too unsettled in Toronto to lock into a deal for a player who could eventually be traded. The Raptors have a lot to figure out this season, and Achiuwa’s development is another item on a long list.

#21 Tyrese Maxey – Philadelphia 76ers

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options

Actual: No extension

We’re still calling this one a win. Philadelphia didn’t extend Maxey, but not because he hasn’t earned it. They didn’t extend him because they are using his small-ish cap hold to try and maximize their cap space in the summer of 2024. Maxey is still going to get a max deal, it’ll just come a year later than it could have.

#22 Zeke Nnaji – Denver Nuggets

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $32 million, player option on the final season

This is another deal where we’re having to reframe our thinking. Nnaji locked in pretty solid money, given he’s been in and out of Denver’s rotation for his entire career. And he got the only player option in the class. In addition, Nnaji’s contract starts high and declines. That helps Denver, when they eventually extend Jamal Murray and the payroll is bumping against the second apron. If he breaks out during this deal, Nnaji can get back on the market of his own choosing in a few years.

#23 Leandro Bolmaro – out of the NBA

Bolmaro is out of the NBA after two non-descript seasons. He returned to Spain after a midseason waiver from the Utah Jazz. Bolmaro also signed a year late, so he would haven’t been extension-eligible anyway.

#24 R.J. Hampton – Detroit Pistons

Hampton was waived by the Orlando Magic before finishing the season with the Pistons. He’s got a non-guaranteed contract for next season with Detroit. Hampton also had his fourth-year option declined, which would have rendered him unable to extend, had he stayed with Orlando. (Hampton is now on a two-way contract with the Miami Heat.)

#25 Immanuel Quickley – New York Knicks

Prediction: Four years, $84 million with incentives that could bring it up to $90 million, no options

Actual: No extension

This is the most dangerous non-extension of them all. Quickley is good and other teams know it. He’s the kind of guy who makes sense as a restricted free agent target for just about everyone. That could put the Knicks in a tricky spot to match an offer sheet, or risk losing Quickley for nothing. Maybe a trade comes before then, or maybe New York feels confident in what is a pretty crowded guard group. But there’s a lot of risk on the Knicks side in not extending Quickley.

#26 Payton Pritchard – Boston Celtics

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $30 million

This one was a surprise, in that it’s another under-MLE extension, and it looked like Pritchard might get traded at the end of the season. Instead, he’s the backup point guard on a title contender, and Pritchard is paid fairly for that role for the next four seasons. If nothing else, Boston avoids bleeding more talent, when it’s hard for them to backfill due to the second apron. And, stop us if you’ve heard this before, it’s a tradable contract down the line.

#27 Udoka Azubuike – Utah Jazz

Azubuike had his fourth-year team option declined by the Jazz. Given the presence of Walker Kessler on the roster, it’s likely Azubuike will be playing elsewhere next season. (Azubuike is now on a two-way deal with the Phoenix Suns.)

#28 Jaden McDaniels – Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction: four years, $100 million, no options

Actual: Five years, $131 to $136 million

McDaniels cashed in even more than we thought. Going the full five years is a win for the Timberwolves, which might have led to McDaniels getting more in terms of AAV than we predicted. This is still a really good deal for Minnesota and McDaniels both. The Wolves now have some cover if (when?) they trade either Karl-Anthony Towns or Rudy Gobert, between the extensions for McDaniels and Naz Reid. But in the short-term, the Wolves are going to be very expensive for a middle-of-the-pack team. That means moves are coming…eventually.

#29 Malachi Flynn – Toronto Raptors

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

It’s more surprising that Flynn had both of his rookie scale options picked up than him not getting extended. This is approaching Last Chance Saloon time for Flynn, as far as saving his NBA career.

#30 Desmond Bane – Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options

Actual: Five years, $197 million to $206 million

Bane didn’t get the max deal we predicted, but he more or less did. If he hits his incentives, Bane will make the max. Given he’s the surest thing for Memphis this season (and possibly beyond), this is a terrific contract for both the Grizzlies and Bane.

 

2019 Draft Class

Chuma Okeke – Orlando Magic

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

Okeke signed a year later, after being drafted in 2019. Even with the extra year, he hasn’t shown enough to land an extension. The Magic also have a ton of talent stockpiled at Okeke’s positions. He’s more of a trade candidate now than he ever was an extension candidate.

 

Keith SmithOctober 20, 2023

Klay Thompson has spent all 12 seasons of his NBA career with the Golden State Warriors. That includes the two seasons when Thompson painstakingly rehabbed from first a torn ACL and then a torn Achilles’ tendon. Given all Thompson and the Warriors have been through together, including winning four titles, it’s hard to imagine Thompson wearing another uniform.

Yet, Thompson and Golden State having seemingly made little progress in extension talks. That leaves Thompson potentially playing out an expiring deal and his future a little unsettled.

Before we get into what Thompson’s next contract could look like, let’s do a little background.

Thompson was drafted by the Warriors at the 2011 NBA Draft. He played out his rookie scale deal, and inked a four-year, $69 million extension. Thompson played that deal out, and then signed a new five-year, $190 million maximum contract in the summer of 2019.

That max deal is the one that is wrapping up now. Golden State signed Thompson to that contract, knowing he’d miss the first season, after he tore his ACL in the 2019 NBA Finals. After two missed seasons, Thompson return to help the Warriors win the 2022 NBA Finals. Now, he’s wrapping up the deal on a $43.2 million expiring contract for the 2023-24 season.

Thompson is 33 years old. He’ll be 34 when his next contract starts, whether it’s an extension or a new contract. Because Thompson is turning 34 ahead of next season, he’ll avoid bumping into the Over-38 rule by one season. That keeps things much simpler, when we consider the absolute max deal Thompson could ink.

Let’s dive into the various options Thompson and the Warriors have, now and this coming offseason. 

Signing a Veteran Extension this season

Thompson is extension-eligible right now. There’s no waiting period for him to extend with the Warriors. Because he’s on an expiring deal, Thompson will remain extension-eligible through June 30, 2024 (the eve of free agency). Extension-eligible players that are on expiring deals (or have an option for the 2024-25 season) can sign an extension through the end of the league year. Extension-eligible players will multiple years left on their contract can only extend through October 23.

For the Warriors and Thompson, that gives them plenty of time to hammer out a new deal. A max extension for Thompson would look like this:

    • 2024-25: $49,700,000
    • 2025-26: $53,676,000
    • 2026-27: $57,652,000
    • 2027-28: $61,628,000
    • Total: four years, $222,656,000

Thompson is eligible to extend for up to four total season and for 140% of his current salary. That 140% would take Thompson past his max salary, so he would be capped at $49.7 million for the 2024-25 season. That’s the projected 10-plus years of service maximum at 35% of the projected $142 million salary cap. If the cap goes up more than projected, the contract would adjust accordingly.

It’s important to note that this is the maximum amount that Thompson is eligible to extend for right now. It’s not likely he would get quite that much. We’re just setting the parameters here.

Re-signing with the Warriors as a free agent in 2024

If Golden State and Thompson can’t reach agreement on an extension, but they aren’t quite ready to part ways, he’ll be eligible to add a fifth season in a new max contract. The first four seasons would look the same as above, but there would be a fifth season tacked on:

    • 2024-25: $49,700,000
    • 2025-26: $53,676,000
    • 2026-27: $57,652,000
    • 2027-28: $61,628,000
    • 2028-29: $65,604,000
    • Total: five years, $288,260,000

This is a five-year, maximum salary, starting at the projected 35% of the cap max with 8% raises. Being able to add that fifth year makes a major difference, even if it’s unlikely that this contract would end up at that level.

One important note: If Thompson were to sign a new contract, as opposed to an extension, he’d be eligible to add a rare negotiated no-trade clause into his new deal. To date, only Bradley Beal (now of the Phoenix Suns) has a negotiated no-trade clause. Thompson would not be able to add a no-trade in an extension, because his current contract does not include a no-trade clause.

Signing with another team as a free agent in 2024

If things get really sideways and Thompson leaves the Warriors, here’s what a max deal with another team would look like:

    • 2024-25: $49,700,000
    • 2025-26: $52,185,000
    • 2026-27: $54,670,000
    • 2027-28: $57,155,000
    • Total: four years, $213,710,000

That’s a 35% of the cap maximum contract, but limited to four years and 5% raises. In comparison to the extension Thompson could sign, he’d be leaving almost $9 million total on the table. And, of course, Thompson could only get a fifth year from the Warriors in a new contract.

Summary

As we said before, it’s really hard to imagine Klay Thompson playing out his career in anything but a Golden State Warriors jersey. The Warriors took care of Draymond Green this summer, despite rumors that a separation could happen. And, of course, Stephen Curry is signed through the 2025-26 season.

Curry is Curry, but Green’s new contract could be a possible signpost for where Thompson’s next deal ends up.

Even as he’s aged, Green has remained a productive player. He no longer brings that Defensive Player of the Year impact every game, but he summons it when necessary. And he’s still a good playmaker, rebounder and leader.

Thompson bounced back with a pretty solid season in his return year in 2022. He averaged 20.4 points per game on 43/39/90 shooting splits. That was good enough to be a big part of the Warriors winning the 2022 NBA Finals.

Last season, Thompson was even better. He averaged 21.9 points on 44/41/88 shooting splits. Most importantly, Thompson played in 69 regular season games and held up physically through the team’s second-round playoff exit.

That last part is important, as that’s what should give the Warriors (or, less likely, another team) confidence in giving Thompson a new contract. However, despite us laying out the max terms, Thompson isn’t getting a max deal. Instead, his current $43.2 million contract probably represents a good starting point for an extension.

In recent years, we’ve seen a handful of veteran players do an in-season extension that took their salary down from the prior season. The best example was Al Horford last season. Horford was on an expiring $26.5 million contract with the Boston Celtics. He signed a two-year, $19.5 million extension that runs through this season and next.

Thompson is younger than Horford, and better positioned to not have to take such a drastic pay cut. As laid out above, he’s still extremely productive, and he has a long, championship history with Golden State.

That brings us back to Green and his new contract. He made $25.8 million in 2022-23, before declining a $27.6 million player option for 2023-24. Despite rumors that Green could look to leave the Warriors, he pretty quickly agreed to a four-year, $100 million contract. That deal sees Green make $22.3 million this season, before topping out with a $27.7 million player option in 2026-27.

While Green hasn’t missed seasons like Thompson has, last year’s 73 games were the most he’s played in a single season since 2017. He’s regularly become a guy who will miss 20-30 games a year. Thompson, despite the two missed season, has been a relative ironman. And again, his nightly production is always there. He’s one of the more consistent performers in the NBA from game to game.

Adding it all up, and given the Warriors ever-present massive tax bill, an extension like this seems to make sense for both sides:

    • 2024-25: $35,000,000
    • 2025-26: $32,200,000
    • 2026-27: $29,400,000
    • 2027-28: $26,600,000
    • Total: four years, $123,200,000

That’s the max allowable of four years, but it includes the max allowable 8% declines each season. As this extension would run through Thompson’s age-34 through age-37 seasons, it’s fair to expect some drop-off in his play. Having the contract mirror that makes sense. If Thompson wants a player option on that final season, that’s fair. Green got one on his new deal, and Andrew Wiggins got one in the extension he signed last summer. If that's the case, the final season would need to be for the same amount as the preceding season. This is because a player option can't be for less salary than the prior season was for. That would boost Thompson's contract to a slight bit more.

For Thompson, this locks in more money than Green got, which seems fair, given his durability and overall impact. It also aligns the team to have Thompson, Curry, Green and Wiggins all signed through at least the 2025-26 seasons.

If it’s more important for the Warriors to keep the tax bill in check right now, especially given the new second apron restrictions, they could structure a traditional deal that looks like this:

    • 2024-25: $27,500,000
    • 2025-26: $29,700,000
    • 2026-27: $31,900,000
    • 2027-28: $34,100,000
    • Total: four years, $123,200,000

The overall money is exactly the same, but the contract starts lower and goes up the max allowed 8% per year. Again, a player option on the final season is a fair concession by Golden State.

This type of structure would help the Warriors lower their overall team salary into a range where getting under the second apron entirely is possible.

In reality, Golden State and Thompson will likely agree to a total salary number, and then the Warriors can structure the deal in whatever way they deem most beneficial. There are plusses and minuses to both approaches. A lot depends on how much the team cares about dodging the second apron in the immediate, balanced against creating some flexibility further down the line.

In the end, an extension makes the most sense for both Thompson and the Warriors. There’s no reason to make him play out the season in limbo, and possibly creating unnecessary drama approaching free agency in July. For Thompson, sacrificing making the most possible money to lock in security for the remainder of his career makes sense too. Look for both sides to eventually find that middle ground and to get a deal done before the end of the season.

 

Keith SmithOctober 19, 2023

The NBA preseason is here! Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next week or so. We’ve already covered the Atlantic Division, Central Division, Southeast Division, Southwest Division and Pacific Division teams.

Denver Nuggets

Is backup point guard a problem? 

The Nuggets starting five is right up there with the best in the NBA. All five players complement each other well and there’s a good mix of offense and defense. Behind them, things get a little shakier. No more so than at backup point guard.

After Denver traded away Monte Morris, this spot was messy last year. Bones Hyland got the primary opportunity, and he was dealt away at the trade deadline, in part because he wasn’t meshing as hoped for. The Nuggets added Reggie Jackson after he worked a buyout, and he re-signed with the team this past offseason, but is Jackson really the answer behind Jamal Murray?

Jackson played in 16 regular season games with Denver last year and he struggled. Jackson couldn’t make shots and wasn’t very good on defense. By the time the playoffs rolled around, the 12-year veteran was only getting garbage time minutes.

The Nuggets gave Jackson the entirety of their $5 million Taxpayer MLE in free agency. That qualified as one of the summer’s more surprising signings. Most had Jackson pegged as a veteran minimum guy. It’s possible that Denver plussed up Jackson’s contract, in exchange for him waiving his ability to block a trade. If so, that makes a lot of sense. His contract could allow Denver to do some things they wouldn’t have been able to do otherwise in trades.

On the court, Jackson could bounce back. 16 games and 319 minutes is hardly a big sample size. And the prior couple of seasons, Jackson was pretty solid in a much bigger role than anyone could have predicted with the LA Clippers.

If Jackson can’t turn it around, Denver is pretty thin at the position. Rookie guard Jalen Pickett could probably give Denver some minutes. Pickett has good size for the position and he’s a solid playmaker. He was a very streaky shooter in college, and rookies are rarely ready defensively. But Pickett comes in as a five-year college player. So, he should be more ready than most rookies to play NBA minutes.

Collin Gillespie is back on a two-way deal, after missing his entire first year with an injury. But he shot it terribly at Summer League and hasn’t hit much better in the preseason. Gillespie’s college profile was that of a good shooter though, so we aren’t going to write him off yet.

In reality, Denver’s offense is different from any other in the NBA. Their primary playmaker is their center. Murray is a point guard in name only, as he makes most of his impact as a scorer and shooter. That lessens the needs for a high-end backup ballhandler. But if Murray needs rest, either in-game or for a night off, someone has to step up. Jackson will get the first opportunity, but don’t be surprised if Pickett ultimately snags the role as Murray’s backup.

What about the rest of the bench? 

Denver lost Bruce Brown, who was a key contributor to their title run. They also lost Jeff Green to the Houston Rockets, and Vlatko Cancar will miss this season after a torn ACL over the summer.

Christian Braun will step in as the replacement for Brown. Denver is high on Braun, and he got a lot of experience as a rotation guy on last season’s title team. He looks ready for a bigger role this year.

We covered the backup point guard spot above, but that leaves another forward spot open and a backup big man spot available. The Nuggets are poised to rely on younger players to fill both roles.

Peyton Watson has been the talk of the offseason, and he seems like he’ll get a shot at rotation minutes at the perimeter forward spot. Rookie first-rounder Julian Strawther has been terrific in the preseason, following a strong Summer League. Strawther is going to factor into the rotation sooner, rather than later. Those two will probably wage a head-to-head battle for minutes. Let the best defender, cutter and shooter win.

Behind Nikola Jokic, things are a lot more in question. DeAndre Jordan re-signed for another run, but he’s more of a locker room presence than an on-court one. If pressed into action, Jordan will provide some rugged defense, rebounding and solid screening. But Jordan’s career is closer to the end than his productive prime years.

The Nuggets would love for Zeke Nnaji to seize the backup five role. His shooting ability would be a nice fit on the second unit. But last season was a mess for Nnaji. He battled injuries and some really shaky shooting. Denver needs to see him return to the form of his first two seasons before they can feel good about running him out on the floor for 15 minutes a night.

Justin Holiday was signed to provide some veteran depth, and a shooting presence. He’ll step in if one of the younger wings isn’t quite ready for their role. The Nuggets are also high on Hunter Tyson, who was drafted in the second round. He might see some minutes too, akin to the situations that Strawther and Jalen Pickett are in.

Mostly, if no one steps forward, look for Calvin Booth to swing a trade to fill a hole. It might mean moving on from a younger player or two, but such is life when you’re on top and everyone is trying to take you down.

Minnesota Timberwolves

How will the perimeter rotation shake out? 

The Wolves starting group is set with Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley in the backcourt and Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels up front. Behind them, Minnesota has talent, but it might take a bit for roles to become defined. Nowhere is that truer than on the perimeter.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is back, and he’ll grab one wing/guard spot. Newcomers Troy Brown Jr. and Shake Milton will be in the mix too. Given teams generally start with an expanded rotation, it’s likely all three will play minutes in the early part of the season. Naz Reid and Kyle Anderson are entrenched as the frontcourt backups.

The real question is if Jordan McLaughlin (in and out of the rotation in his four seasons in Minnesota) or Wendell Moore (coming off a forgettable rookie season) can steal rotation roles. McLaughlin is more of a pure point guard than either Alexander-Walker or Milton. Moore needs to make shots to have a chance at seeing some wing minutes. Finally, keep an eye on Josh Minott. He’s got a really intriguing mix of skill and size. He did some things on the G League level that could project to NBA production. He’s a sleeper rotation candidate to watch.

Who is the backup point guard? 

We touched on this above, but we’ll expand on it here. This is basically a three-way, and really a two-way, battle between Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Shake Milton and Jordan McLaughlin.

Alexander-Walker spent the first few seasons of his career as a theoretical big point guard. He never quite fit that mold though, and it took until last season for him to really find a foothold in the league. Alexander-Walker leaned into being a 3&D player, who could also do some secondary ballhandling. The Wolves seem to see him more in that role, so we’ll take Alexander-Walker out of the mix behind Mike Conley.

Jordan McLaughlin is the holdover. After flashing late in his pandemic-shortened rookie season, McLaughlin snagged a rotation role in his second year. Unfortunately, each of the last two seasons have seen him backslide some. McLaughlin stopped making his outside shots, in addition to battling a midseason injury last season. If he starts making jumpers again, McLaughlin will use his combination of playmaking ability and pesky defense to force his way back on the floor.

Milton is kind of an opposite of McLaughlin. He’s got more size and he’s a better shooter. But he’s only a so-so playmaker and his defense has never really been more than passable. Milton brings the added benefit of being able to play on the wing, where McLaughlin is more of an on-ball guard.

The guess here is that Milton gets sort of the first crack, as his shooting ability can help open up the floor Anthony Edwards and the Wolves big man. But McLaughlin will crack the rotation at some point. He just makes thing happen. And if McLaughlin makes shots, he’ll be hard to take out of the mix.

Oklahoma City Thunder

What is the rotation going to look like? 

Mark Daigneault used his first two seasons as Oklahoma City head coach perfectly. He experimented with lineups and player combinations relentlessly. Even last year, when the Thunder were ahead of schedule as far as being a competitive team, Daigneault kept testing and adjusting his rotation and groupings.

Now, Oklahoma City is here (but hot HERE here just yet) and there are some expectations for this group. That likely means there isn’t as much room for experimentation. But that’s not really a problem. Daigneault knows what talent he has now.

The starting five appears set. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a star, Jalen Williams (the wing one) is headed in that direction. Josh Giddey’s funky slashing, do-a-little-of-everything game just fits, while Lu Dort is the team’s perimeter stopper. Chet Holmgren joins them for his delayed rookie season. If preseason is any example, he’s the fifth finger in a pretty well-fit glove.

Behind those five, things are more unsettled. Jaylin Williams (the big one) will be Holmgren’s backup when he gets back from a what seems to be a minor injury. Kenrich Williams is going to find his way on the floor, because he’s too impactful not to. Presumably, Vasilije Micic didn’t come over to sit on the bench, so he’ll snag a backup guard role. And Isaiah Joe brings deadeye shooting to a roster short on that skill.

Maybe it’s that simple. That’s Daigneault’s nine-man rotation. But something says that’s shortsighted. Too many other guys are simply too good to just be completely out of the mix

Ousmane Dieng is all limbs and potential. He’s going to factor in, if for no other reason so OKC can see what they have him. Dieng had some nice games over the final quarter of his rookie season, and the Thunder will want to see if that carries over.

Aaron Wiggins might not jump out at you right away, but if you take a deeper look, you’ll find a lot to like. Wiggins will unleash the occasional highlight jam, but he’s more than that. Wiggins is a good finisher around the rim, and he knocked down 39.3% of his threes last season. He’s also a competitive defender. It’s hard to see him getting completely shelved.

Tre Mann and rookie Cason Wallace are going to put pressure on Micic for backup guard minutes. Mann took a step back with a less consistent role in his second season than he had in his rookie year. But he can still score, and there’s a playmaker in there that’s ready to break out. Wallace is your typical Kentucky guard. He’s a little shaky on offense, but you get the feeling he can do more than he showed while in college. And you love the toughness, the defensive tenacity and the willingness to mix it up on the boards, despite a lack of size. He just screams that he’ll find his way on the floor eventually.

If we count in the top-nine guys and combine them with Dieng, Wiggins, Mann and Wallace, we’re already at 13 guys. And we haven’t even touched on Davis Bertans (a prototypical Thunder reclamation project) and Aleksej Pokusevski (currently injured and in danger of becoming an unrealized project).

In a very real sense, Oklahoma City has 15 guys who can play. That’s incredible considering this team was torn down to the studs just a couple of years ago. But the days of all 15 guys playing somewhat regularly, because the team was mixing and matching game to game, are over. Look for the top-nine we called out to be the regulars, with the others slotting in as matchups, injuries or ineffectiveness open up minutes.

That means Mark Daigneault might be having some difficult conversations, but he’s up for it. And, more importantly, minutes will be fully earned on this team moving forward. That’s an exciting place for a franchise to be in as they go from rebuilding to competing.

Who gets cut? 

The Thunder have taken care of this to some extent throughout the course of the offseason. They moved on from Usman Garuba and TyTy Washington, after acting as a clearinghouse for their contracts this summer. Both have potential, but the rest of the league wasn’t as all over either player as suggested, as both Garuba and Washington are on two-way deals now.

Oklahoma City further cleaned things up by trading Victor Oladipo (really his $9.45 million contract) and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to the Houston Rockets. In exchange, the Thunder waive Kevin Porter Jr. and ate his contract, while picking up two more future second-round picks for Sam Presti’s stash. Oladipo might have been an easy cut, but Robinson-Earl has played real minutes for the Thunder and they might not wanted to have moved on simply by waiving him.

That leaves one tough cut to make. At this point, it looks like Jack White could be the one on the outside looking in. The Thunder thought highly enough of White to give him $600,000 in guaranteed money this summer. Maybe the thought was that something would open up to keep him around. As of this writing, that hasn’t happened. It’s hard to see the team waiving anyone else.

Maybe, and it’s a major maybe, the team is ready to move on from Aleksej Pokusevski. The developmental minutes that Pokusevski needs no longer seem available. He also doesn’t seem to be in line for a contract extension. If the Thunder are done waiting on his potential, Poku’s days could be numbered.

We’ll guess it’s White, which is somewhat unfortunate. His guarantee is too large for him to play for Oklahoma City’s G League affiliate. That means White will be off elsewhere for next season. But it just seems like the team won’t ties with Pokusevski…yet.

Portland Trail Blazers

Who is the fifth starter? 

Four starting spots are spoken for in Portland. Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons are going to start in the backcourt. Deandre Ayton and Jerami Grant are starting up front. That means the wing spot is up for grabs.

Shaedon Sharpe has the most long-term potential, but that would leave the Blazers starting three guards. That means they’ll be undersized and lacking some defense. A lineup of Henderson, Simons, Sharpe, Grant and Ayton will hopefully see lots of minutes, but it might not open games.

That means Matisse Thybulle is probably the best bet to start games. He’s easily the best defensive player on the roster. Yes, that’s a low bar to clear, but Thybulle leaps over it with ease anyway. And in 22 games with Portland, Thybulle shot 38.8% on 3.9 three-point attempts per game. That’s really, really intriguing.

The defense will probably get Thybulle the first crack at the starting spot, but the shooting will keep him in it. If he regresses as a shooter, and defenses start making things too hard on Ayton to work in the paint and to easy to collapse on Henderson drives, Sharpe might wedge his way in there.

There’s also a slight chance that Chauncy Billups might want to go big and will start Robert Williams next to Ayton, while pushing Grant to the three. That’s worth experimenting with, but probably not as a starting group. That would really shrink the floor a lot, and that makes life harder than it needs to be on Henderson and Simons to get the offensive moving. But for a few minutes here and there, it’s worth checking out.

One last thing to keep an eye on, but further down the line: Sharpe starting over Simons. There are some who believe that Simons best role on a winning team will be as a high-volume sixth man. Think Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams. This space isn’t going to tell you that Simons should go to the bench. We’re big fans of his. But if Portland wants to experiment late in a lottery season, they could give it a shot.

Could the bench be a strength? 

Either Shaedon Sharpe or Matisse Thybulle is going to come off the bench. We’re guessing Robert Williams will do the same. Malcolm Brogdon is going to play too, for however long he’s in Portland. Kris Murray has some potential as a ready-to-play rookie, and Jabari Walker flashed at times as a rookie.

Even if it’s just the Sharpe/Thybulle non-starter, Williams and Brogdon that contribute as reserves, that’s pretty good. That’s better than some playoff teams will feature. There’s even a chance that we could see Portland’s starting group bleed points, while the backups come in and cut into leads. Both lineups are built for that sort of potential.

If nothing else, on the nights when the Blazers starters do hand off a lead, the bench shouldn’t immediately hand it back. That’s always a positive on a young team, as it keeps from frustration creeping in. Frustration with holding leads often ends up in younger players taking on a Thanos-like approach of “Fine. I’ll do it myself.” And that never leads anywhere good, whether it be for young players or Thanos.

Utah Jazz

What does the guard rotation look like? 

The Utah Jazz have a lot of guys who can play. For a team in Year 2 of a rebuild, Utah is pretty well stocked. Most know the frontcourt is deep in options, but the guard group is actually even more of an open competition.

After Mike Conley was traded at the deadline, the most-common starting guards were Jordan Clarkson and Talen Horton-Tucker. They are both back, as is Collin Sexton, who suffered through an injury-plagued season. Kris Dunn, who experience a major career rejuvenation, is also returning. That’s already four-deep, but there’s more.

Ochai Agbaji is a pure wing, but most of his minutes came at the two, as part of jumbo-sized lineups. And Keyonte George looks like he’s going to make it very hard to keep him off the floor as a rookie.

If we take Agbaji out of the mix and assume he’ll see more minutes at the three this year, that’s still five guys for four spots. Injuries might open up minutes for someone, but this a delicate situation for Will Hardy to sort through.

Horton-Tucker is on an expiring deal, as is Dunn. They’re both going to want chances to show what they can do. Sexton has three years left on his contract, and Clarkson added two years to his deal too.  That makes them at least somewhat a part of the longer-term future in Utah. It’s also safe to assume the Jazz are going to want to see what they have in George at some point.

It’s been rumored that teams have called on Horton-Tucker. Moving him could add to Danny Ainge’s already overflowing treasure chest of draft picks, while opening up minutes in the backcourt. After four years, it’s clear that Horton-Tucker is a solid all-around player, but he’s a “jack of all trades, master of none” guy. And his lack of shooting won’t allow him to play the on-ball minutes he needs on a good team. If someone has to move out of the rotation, and Dunn’s offense from last season carries over, Horton-Tucker makes sense as the odd man out.

For now, Hardy can keep mixing and matching, while spotting guys rest days here and there. But that will wear thin relatively quickly. Figuring out which guards complement a talented frontcourt long-term is near the top of the to-do list for this season.

Will the rookies get to play? 

We touched on it above with Keyonte George, but it’s going to be just as hard for Taylor Hendricks and Brice Sensabaugh to find minutes. It’s no longer a guarantee in the NBA that first-round-pick status means you get entitlement minutes. Teams don’t function that way anymore, unless they are really bad, or at the end of a lost season.

That means George, Hendricks and Sensabaugh will have earned any minutes they get. That’s not a bad thing, as you want to them to have to compete from Day 1. But young players, who have been stars or main cogs for their entire lives, can get frustrated if they are sitting game after game.

We already covered how George will have to fight his way through a crowded guard group. If Hendricks wants to play, he’ll have to show that he can do it at the three. Walker Kessler will play all of his minutes at the five, but the four will feature some combination of John Collins (in the big starting group), Lauri Markkanen (in smaller, more traditional lineups) and Kelly Olynyk (when he’s not backing up Kessler). That leaves very little room for Hendricks to play what looks like his natural position.

But if Hendricks can defend on the perimeter enough, shoot it well enough and do a little bit of ballhandler, he can find minutes behind Markkanen at the three. Because he missed Summer League with an injury, we’ve only seen some small preseason glimpses of Hendricks. He very much remains a mystery box.

As for Sensabaugh, it’s hard to see how he’ll see many minutes as a rookie. He’s played even less than Hendricks. Barring something unexpected, it’s a good bet that Sensabaugh sees more minutes in the G League than the NBA this season.

Again, it’s not a bad thing if the Jazz rookies aren’t gifted minutes right out of the gate. But if you were expecting to see immediate fruits from this draft class, you’re going to be disappointed. There’s a good deal of ripening that will need to happen, maybe even a full season’s worth. But it should pay off with three good players that can fill rotation holes as the roster evolves over the next few years.

 

Keith SmithOctober 12, 2023

The NBA preseason is here! Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Atlantic Division, Southeast Division, Southwest Division and Pacific Division teams.

Chicago Bulls

Who starts at point guard? 

The Bulls will be without Lonzo Ball for the entirety of the 2023-24 season. Ball is recovering from another knee surgery, but this time there is optimism he’ll make it back for the start of next season.

Until then, Chicago needs someone to play point guard.

The lead guard position for the Bulls doesn’t have to be your traditional playmaker. Billy Donovan runs a lot of his offense through DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. Ayo Dosunmu started for most of last season, with Patrick Beverley taking over after being added during buyout season. Neither of them is really a pure point guard.

Dosunmu is back this season, as is Coby White, after both young guards re-signed with the Bulls this summer. Chicago also added Jevon Carter in free agency. Alex Caruso (who has shifted away from point guard reps over the years) and Carlik Jones are also returning.

We can probably eliminate the latter two from this competition. Caruso is the Bulls version of a utility player in baseball. He’ll play a lot by playing a little bit of everything. Jones is coming off an impressive summer with South Sudan at the FIBA World Cup, but he remains very unproven at the NBA level. He’s still a developmental project for Chicago.

That leaves a three-way tussle between Dosunmu, White and Carter. All have reasons to believe in them, while also having reasons to question them.

Dosunmu has started 91 of his first 157 NBA games. He’s got the experience alongside DeRozan and LaVine. He knows his role is to defend, function as a secondary or tertiary creator and to make shots when open. It’s that last part where things went sideways last season. After hitting an exciting 37.6% from deep as a rookie, Dosunmu fell off to a terrible 31.2% in his second year. If he’s not making shots, he can’t play regularly. Someone needs to open the floor for DeRozan and LaVine.

The potential good news? As a freshman at Illinois, Dosunmu hit 35.2% of his triples, before falling off to just 29.6% as a sophomore. In his junior year, Dosunmu bounced back to hit 38.6% from behind the arc. If he can experience a similar bounce-back as a third-year of NBA play, Dosunmu might win back his starting job.

White got the start in the Bulls first preseason game. He’s 23 years old now and has four NBA seasons under his belt. White has also been pretty durable, so he has a good amount of experience.

The downside? White’s role has been all over the place in his four-year career. As a rookie, he was an on-ball scoring option off the bench. He was inefficient, but that’s true of most rookies. As a second-year player, White was the team’s starting point guard. He showed signs of improving his playmaking ability, while his efficiency took the expected upturn.

With Ball joining the team, White went back to the bench role in Year 3. He was even more efficient, but his playing time and number of shots both took a marked downturn. Year 4 was easily White’s most efficient scoring season, but he played and shot the least amount in his NBA career.

Now, the door seems open for White to take back the starting point guard spot. His shooting from behind the arc has stabilized. He hits for a solid percentage on a pretty good volume of three-pointers. White is also the best at creating his own shots, or shots for others, out of the threesome competing for the starting gig.

The one thing Donovan and staff will be looking to see from White is better defense. As reserve, some of his “Ole!” style of swiping for a steal and then waiting for an outlet pass, can be overlooked. A lot of scoring guards play that way off the bench. As a starter, White needs to freelance less and he has to be competitive. The tools are there, he just has to harness them.

Harnessing defensive ability is no problem for Carter. He’s one of the best on-ball pests in the NBA. Few players are as adept at picking up full court and harassing an opposing ballhandler. Carter isn’t a steal merchant. He’s just always there, a constant annoyance for the guy he’s guarding.

Carter is also the best shooter of this group, as he’s a tick under 40% from deep for his career. Carter’s entire NBA run has also been as a spot-up guy, playing off teammates. That’s a good skill for Chicago, considering DeRozan and LaVine will run the show there.

The challenge with Carter starting is that he hasn’t done it much. He’s started 48 games in five years, and 39 of those starts came last season. That might be one of those situations where we don’t know how a guy will hold up until he gets a shot, but it’s enough of a question that the Bulls will think about it. There’s also the fact that both White and Dosunmu have some organizational cache built up, which matters more than many think.

The guess here is that White takes the job. As long as he defends enough, he should be able to keep it. But Dosunmu has started as recently as last year, and Carter is around. None of the three should feel overly comfortable, even if they start on opening night. And that’s probably best for the Bulls for keeping all of them on their toes.

Who is the backup power forward? 

Patrick Williams is going to start at the four again. That’s fine, even if he might still ideally be more of a wing. But Chicago does enough with him, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine switching and matching up defensively, that it probably doesn’t matter.

What does matter is who is backing up Williams. That spot seems to be wide open.

Last season, Billy Donovan picked from a grab bag of Javonte Green, Derrick Jones Jr. and the decidedly not-a-four Alex Caruso behind Williams. Caruso is back, but he recently spoke that playing the four takes a toll on him and it’s something he and Bulls would like to avoid, given his overall importance to the roster.

This year the backup minutes at the four will probably fall mostly to Torrey Craig. And that’s probably a big upgrade over last season, given Caruso will be able to contribute more behind DeRozan and Lavine.

Craig was one of the better value signings of the summer, as the Bulls got him on a two-year, veteran minimum deal. Although Craig is a prototypical small forward, he’s logged plenty of time as a small-ball power forward. Last season might have been an outlier, as Craig hit 39.5% of his threes. If that repeats, Chicago will be thrilled with Craig as the ideal Williams backup.

What makes Craig ideal is the way the Bulls play. As mentioned above, they kind of treat Williams, DeRozan and LaVine as a trio on defense. Williams takes the best perimeter guy, with DeRozan and LaVine taking the lesser threats. Even when the opponent plays with two bigs, Williams is generally still on the best perimeter option, with DeRozan guarding up a spot.

Craig can do what Williams does on defense, albeit with a bit less size. If he’s making shots at a nearly 40% clip, that’s a pretty good replication of Williams too.

The one challenge comes if there are injuries elsewhere. If a wing goes down, and Craig is pressed into service there, then there isn’t a good option behind Williams on the roster. That could be a place where some of the point guard depth is traded to plug that hole. Something to keep an eye on into the middle of the season.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Who is the fifth starter? 

Assuming Jarrett Allen’s ankle injury doesn’t keep him out for too long, the Cavs have four of five starters set. Allen will be joined by Evan Mobley up front, and Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are the starting backcourt. It’s that middle spot at small forward that is up for grabs.

Last season, the fifth spot was split somewhat equally between Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro, with a sprinkling of Dean Wade mixed in. All three are back in Cleveland, along with Max Strus, who has started 41 playoff games over each of the last two postseasons.

LeVert and Wade are probably out of the mix to start. LeVert has found a really good role coming off the Cavaliers bench. He gets to handle the ball a lot in that role, and can kind of do his thing as a primary option on the second unit. Wade isn’t really a small forward, and he might find far more usage as a backup big option. The Cavs are a little light behind Allen and Mobley, which could press Wade into option up front.

That leaves Okoro vs Strus. Okoro has the organizational cache. He’s been there for three years, he’s a slightly better defender (with the tools to be a much better defender) and he did make shots last year. But it’s that last part where things swing decidedly toward Strus.

Okoro has experience a steady upward climb in his shooting, going from 29% to 35% to 36.3% year over year. Strus, on the other hand, was at 41% and 35% from deep the last two seasons, on a volume well over double that of Okoro’s.

If the Cavs are hellbent on opening up the floor more, they’ll start Strus. He simply carries gravity that Okoro doesn’t. Defenses bend towards Strus, whereas they flex away from Okoro. If Cleveland stays with the status quo, and wants the better defender on the floor, they’ll stick with Okoro.

One last consideration: Strus came to Cleveland via a four-year, $62.3 million sign-and-trade. Okoro is in the final year of his rookie scale deal. Strus can fit on a roster featuring Okoro or not, but the contracts could be a sign that Cleveland is moving away from the former fifth overall pick.

Who wins the final roster spot? 

As of this writing, Cleveland has 14 players signed to standard contracts. They have four players battling in training camp for that final spot, assuming the Cavaliers fill it at all.

Of that group, Sharife Cooper might have a slight edge, and it’s got little to do with production. Instead, it’s about position.

Cooper is a point guard. As it stands right now, Cleveland is really light at the point guard position. Darius Garland is an All-Star-level guy, but there just isn’t a lot behind him.

Ricky Rubio remains away from the team, as he continues to work on a personal issue that arose over the summer. The Cavs have expressed support for Rubio and are giving him all the time and space he needs. That’s exactly the way it should be.

But that means someone has to step up behind Garland in the interim. Ty Jerome will get the first shot. He’s played as a point guard plenty in his career, even if he’s more of a combo guard. Considering guys like Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert will have the ball plenty when Jerome is on the floor, the fifth-year Virginia product should be just fine.

But that leaves the third point guard spot open. Craig Porter is on a two-way deal, and he’ll get the first crack at any available minutes. He was a Summer League standout, but had exactly one season of high-volume production at Wichita State. He’s got a lot to prove, and a lot of G League time is necessary.

And that brings us back to Cooper. He’s small and his NBA experience is negligible, but Cooper has stood out in the G League. If Cleveland needs someone until Rubio is back, converting Cooper to a standard non-guaranteed contract, is probably the way forward for some additional point guard depth.

Detroit Pistons

How do they get Ausar Thompson minutes? 

The Pistons are sending signs that this question could be resolved by opening night. Monty Williams seems likely to shoehorn Thompson into the rotation, including in a possible starting spot.

You read that right. Despite Detroit having a lot of varying talent on the wing, Thompson might start right out of the gate.

It was one preseason game, and one where some regulars were out, but Thompson started and held his own. He didn’t shoot it well, and that’s going to be a major question for him until it isn’t, but Thompson did a lot of everything else. He scored 12 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, dished out six assists and blocked a shot.

That production mirrored what Thompson did in four Summer League games. He also displayed that chaotic energy on defense, where he’s kind of everywhere all at once. That was also a carryover from Summer League.

But when games matter, is Thompson really going to start over established guys like Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks or Joe Harris? Is he going to leapfrog young players like Jaden Ivey or Isaiah Livers?

It seems like the answer is: kind of.

Bogdanovic is still going to play, and he’s probably going to start. Cade Cunningham has the most upside, but Bogdanovic is still Detroit’s best player. Burks is going to play, and there should be room for both him and Thompson in the rotation. What happens with Harris is really interesting. He’s the best pure shooter on the roster, and the Pistons can use that skill. But he’s on an expiring deal and probably not a part of the future in Detroit. If he’s out of the rotation to open the year, it wouldn’t be a surprise.

The Pistons are making noise about playing Ivey off the bench, despite the fact that he started 73 games as a rookie. Maybe it’s a way to make sure Ivey still gets on-ball reps with Cunningham back. Maybe it’s all subterfuge and he’ll start on opening night. For now, it’s something to watch. And Livers seems more like he’s in the frontcourt mix as a small-ball four than he is a part of the wing rotation.

Thompson is overflowing with upside. Detroit probably isn’t going to be very good this season. That combination necessitates him playing as much as he can handle. And it seems like the Pistons will make sure that happens.

Who gets the third two-way spot? 

We’ll keep this relatively short. Detroit has filled two of their two-way spots with undrafted Malcolm Cazalon and the returning Jared Rhoden. Both of those guys are wings, which makes for an interesting competition for the third two-way spot.

Buddy Boeheim is back after being on a two-way last year, but he’s another wing. Same is true of Stanley Umude, who did a 10-day run with Detroit last year. Tosan Evbuomwan is also in camp, and he’s a bigger wing, but he’s still another wing.

That kind of seems like the competition could be between big man Jontay Porter, who has done a few different NBA stints, and guard Zavier Simpson.

Porter still has some of that prospect tag attached to him. He’ll turn 24 in late-November, but there’s still intrigue with a near 7-footer who can step out and shoot it some, while rebounding and blocking shots on the other end.

Simpson is a G League veteran, and he was terrific in the minors last year. His lack of size seems to be all that is holding him back from landing a full NBA spot. If the Pistons want some additional point guard depth, Simpson would be nice to have on a two-way deal.

We don’t really have a prediction here. Evbuomwan is probably the most interesting player, given he’s still pretty unknown. Porter probably has the most upside, while Simpson is probably the most ready-to-contribute guy in the mix. Let the best man win.

Indiana Pacers

Who starts? 

We can ink Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner into the Pacers starting lineup. That means the poles are taken care of. In between the point and the center, everything seems to be up for grabs.

Last season, the Pacers went small around Turner. They played a mixture of guards and wings, with Buddy Hield, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith the most common starters. All three of those players are back, along with last season’s sixth man Bennedict Mathurin. And the Pacers added Bruce Brown to that mix in free agency.

Indiana also added bigger options in trading for Obi Toppin and drafting Jarace Walker. And that’s where things get interesting for Rick Carlisle.

Hield might be out of the mix to open the season. He requested a trade after extension talks broke down, and the Pacers are trying to accommodate him. Even if he’s still with the team to open the year, Hield might see his role reduced in favor of longer-term options.

This offseason, Maturin said the team told him he would start this season. We’ll take him at his word, and plug him into one spot. Considering Mathurin is very much a swing player, that leaves a backcourt and possible frontcourt spot open.

It seems likely that Indiana will be a bit more traditional this season, because they have the talent to do so. That’s why we’re leaning towards Brown and Toppin joining Haliburton, Turner and Mathurin in the starting five.

Brown was given $45 million this summer ($22 million guaranteed). That doesn’t mean he’s a lock to start, but it doesn’t not mean that either. In a more compelling case, Brown’s mix of defense, on- and off-ball offensive ability and his shooting are a terrific fit with the Pacers other starters.

Toppin is the best four on the roster right now. Maybe Walker overtakes him, but that’s a down-the-line thing. Toppin’s entire profile has been screaming for a bigger role throughout his three years in New York. That was never going to come with Julius Randle entrenched in front of him, so Toppin is now in Indiana. Given Haliburton’s excitement about the addition, we feel good saying Toppin will claim the fifth starting spot, and will give Indiana a real four in the lineup.

None of this is to suggest that Nembhard (who the Pacers love), Nesmith (who finally stayed healthy last year) and Walker (who the team gushes over) won’t get their chances. Indiana remains high on all of them, and they’ll all factor in, whether they start or not.

Related: How do the Pacers get Jarace Walker enough minutes? 

Indiana acquired Obi Toppin after drafting Jarace Walker, but that was about seizing a good buy-low opportunity more than it was anything about the rookie forward. Talk to anyone with the Pacers and they’ll inevitably express a great deal of excitement about Walker.

That means he’s going to get on the floor. But how is the question. Indiana has a lot of NBA guys on their roster. If they don’t trade Buddy Hield, there are about 12 guys who could be in the mix for real minutes. That’s a lot of guys, and Walker is going to have to beat out several of them to play.

On one hand, if Toppin starts, Walker looks like the ideal backup power forward. And “backup” is sort of in name only here, as they could very well split the playing time at the four pretty evenly. If Rick Carlisle stays with multiple wings and guards around Myles Turner, things could get a little messy for both Toppin and Walker to play.

Neither is a real option at center. Walker could feature in some lineups on the wing, but he profiles as a smaller four right now. But it doesn’t really matter all that much, Walker’s talent is going to get him on the floor eventually.

As stated above, Toppin is our pick to start next to Turner up front. But if Toppin doesn’t grab that role fully, then Walker might snatch it from him. His shot is shaky, but Walker is ready to do everything else. In a system where the Pacers want to run, his grab-and-go ability will be as prized as Toppin’s ability to fill the lane in transition.

Look for Walker to get eased in somewhat. But that doesn’t mean a small number of minutes. It’s more about him not starting right away. Starting might eventually come, but the Pacers prized rookie forward is going to force his way on the floor no matter what.

Milwaukee Bucks

Who is the backup point guard? 

If your biggest offseason question is about a 15-minute-a-night backup, you’re probably in pretty good shape. And the Bucks are certainly in pretty great shape. Yet, a pre-trade question still remains a valid one.

Damian Lillard is going to start at point guard. He’ll probably play somewhere around 33 minutes a night. That’s less than he’s played in recent years, but Milwaukee has big goals and they tend to not put too much on their key guys in the regular season.

Behind Lillard, as it was behind Jrue Holiday, is a question. Prior to the trade, the Bucks would likely have swung Grayson Allen over to the on-ball role behind Holiday. But both of them went out in the trade for Lillard, leaving the backup point guard just as big of a question.

Milwaukee did well to sign Cameron Payne after the trade, and he’ll clearly get the first shot at the backup role. But he’s coming off two shaky seasons in a row, after an outstanding first full year with the Phoenix Suns. Payne hasn’t shot it or finished quite as well over the last couple of years, which was an issue when the Suns had to press him into a bigger role with Chris Paul out.

Still, Payne will probably be fine behind Lillard…when he’s available. If Payne has injuries again, that’s where things get really questionable for the Bucks. There isn’t another proven point guard on the roster.

We aren’t going to overreact, because Milwaukee can run most of their offense through Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton if they need to. At that point, they can stick any capable shooter on the floor, and it’s probably fine.

The biggest issue could actually be defensively. Holiday was a top-tier defender, and the Bucks don’t have that anymore. Lillard’s offense will make up for any defensive drop-off. But behind him, they don’t even have that terrific change-of-pace guy, as Jevon Carter left in free agency.

Maybe Marjon Beauchamp puts it all together and snags a rotation role. Lindell Wigginton, TyTy Washington and Omari Moore are really interesting guys, but being on two-way deals limits how much they can play. This space is a big fan of A.J. Green, but he’s not really an on-ball stopper. And Andre Jackson Jr. is really fun, but that’s asking a lot of a rookie wing.

Much like with questions we asked of other contenders, we’ll leave this one in the “Not a problem until it is” category. But it’s still worth monitoring.

Related: Will Marjon Beauchamp see real minutes? 

Marjon Beauchamp was as advertised a rookie. The size and athleticism show up regularly, but he wasn’t ready for real minutes on a contender.

As a second-year player, the Bucks might need Beauchamp to be a lot more ready.

Milwaukee’s wing and guard rotations were hit this offseason through free agent departures and trades. That’s left some openings for guys to step in. The Bucks would love for Beauchamp to snag a rotation role this year.

Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton are assured of rotation minutes. Middleton will start when he plays, and Connaughton may grab the fifth starter spot that opened up from the Damian Lillard trade. Malik Beasley could start instead of Connaughton, and he’s going to play a lot either as a starter or off the bench.

From there, it’s a lot more up in the air. Jae Crowder seems more like a four than a wing at this point, and that’s fine for what the Bucks need him to do. That’s especially true, as Bobby Portis is the primary backup center.

All of that leaves Beauchamp battling guys like A.J. Green, Andre Jackson Jr. and maybe Chris Livingston for minutes. Green has the best standout skill of that group with his shooting, but it’s still a very close competition.

The guess here is that it’s Beauchamp vs Jackson for the backup wing minutes that are available. If Beauchamp can shoot it a little better, and that’s a big if, he’s probably got the advantage. He did log 701 NBA minutes last season, where Jackson is coming in as a rookie.

But Jackson has an intriguing mix of all-around skills. If Jackson could shoot, we’d lock him in for backup wing minutes. But it’s that lack of a shot that puts him in competition with Beauchamp.

It’s not make-or-break time for Beauchamp by any means. But he did just turn 23 and isn’t exactly a super young prospect anymore. He’s got this season plus two more on his rookie scale deal, so there’s still a little time. But if Beauchamp doesn’t seize a rotation role this season, Milwaukee might need to start thinking about him in terms of being a tradable piece to fill that rotation hole that he couldn’t.

 

Keith SmithOctober 10, 2023

The NBA preseason is here! Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Atlantic Division, Southeast Division and Southwest Division teams.

Golden State Warriors

Will Chris Paul start? 

This is one of the most fascinating questions in the entire NBA. The Warriors acquiring Chris Paul was somewhat of a no-brainer. They turned Jordan Poole’s long-term deal into a pseudo-expiring contract that is far more tradable. But before a trade comes, if one even does, Paul is going to play for Golden State. But will he start or come off the bench?

It’s way too easy to assume either option is the answer. Paul has always been a starter. He’s played in 1,214 regular season games and 149 playoff games. Paul has been on the floor for the opening tip for all 1,363 of them.

On the flip side, the Warriors have a productive starting five that is pretty well-balanced positionally and with offense and defense. Why would Steve Kerr mess with that?

In the short-term, it seems like this question will be answered by Draymond Green being out. Green suffered an ankle sprain that may keep him out for the start of the regular season. That opens the door to avoid some awkwardness, at least early on.

But Green will be back. Then what?

Many have looked at Kerr’s regular starting lineup and decided that Kevon Looney is the least-accomplished Warrior and decided he’d go to the bench. But Looney is easily Golden State’s best rebounder, probably their best night-to-night interior defender (Green doesn’t bring it every night in the regular season anymore) and arguably their best screener. Shuttling him to the bench puts a ton of pressure on Green to do a lot on defense.

So, maybe Paul goes to the bench? That’d be a different role for him, but others have accepted such a transition as their career has gone along. Dwyane Wade, who is one of Paul’s good friends, came off the bench for the majority of each of his final two seasons. And he did it at roughly the same age Paul is now. And, finally, Wade didn’t exactly do it on a title contender in his final season, which made his sacrifice even more noteworthy.

Paul could help stabilize bench units, which have often bled points and leads during the Warriors title-contention run. And it would help Kerr keep Paul’s minutes in check, which should hopefully keep him fresher and productive into the springtime, when games matter most.

Either option will require a heavy dose of buy-in. From an established Warrior or from Paul. Maybe Golden State is at the point where someone will always be out with some sort of malady. That would also take care of the issue, without anyone having to be benched. But if this season goes the way the Warriors want, they’ll need everyone available. At that point, someone will have to sacrifice for the best of the team and a run at a title.

Will Brandin Podziemski play? 

Golden State’s bench has been a revolving door for several years now. Young players haven’t developed into rotation regulars as hoped for, while veteran signings have been pretty hit-or-miss. This season, the Warriors seem to have some pretty good options, especially on the wing. Gary Payton will see most of his minutes in an off-ball perimeter role. Moses Moody is knocking on the door of a bigger role. Cory Joseph has played off-ball quite a bit, and Jonathan Kuminga will see some minutes at the three.

Where does that leave rookie Brandin Podziemski? Probably on the bench, or playing for Santa Cruz in the G League. He’s got an interesting mix of all-around skills though. Despite not shooting it well at Summer League, Podziemski flashed his mix of scoring, rebounding and playmaking ability. He could bring a bit of everything off the bench.

But he’s a rookie and the Warriors have title aspirations. The key will be to work Podziemski in where they can. Golden State can’t continue to let former first-round picks sort of whither on the vine. They have to start developing some of them into real rotation players. Both Kuminga and Moody seem to be finally turning that corner, but that’s not a 100% thing. Former second overall pick James Wiseman never got there. Podziemski has skills that can help Golden State, but he needs to get a chance and to make the most of it. Otherwise, he’s going to be another guy that we’ll all just keep waiting on, like others before him.

LA Clippers

Are some veterans going to be out of the rotation? 

The Clippers have been lauded for their depth over the last few years. Most seasons started with it looking like LA had at least 10-12 guys who could play real rotation minutes. With injury and load management issues, the Clippers needed all of them too.

Now, things have started to swing in another direction. The Clippers increased Terance Mann’s role as last season went along, they added Bones Hyland for point guard depth at the trade deadline, and this summer the team traded for K.J. Martin to plus-up the frontcourt. The team also likes holdovers Brandon Boston Jr. and Amir Coffey quite a bit too.

Where does that leave vets like Nic Batum, Marcus Morris and Robert Covington? At least one of them, and probably two, aren’t going to see many minutes. Batum and Morris saw their roles lessened as the season went along, while Covington saw the fewest minutes he’s had in a healthy season since his rookie year.

With Clippers signaling that they won’t be nearly as aggressive with load managing their stars, minutes are going to be at a premium. If younger players are seeing those reserve minutes, the vets will be pushed to lesser roles.

Unless, of course, a James Harden trade saps LA of some of their depth. Then all bets are off and the rotation will need to be rebuilt on the fly.

Who is the backup point guard? 

The point guard position has been a messy one for the Clippers for a while now. Russell Westbrook came in during buyout season and stabilized the starting spot. But the minutes behind him remain a question.

Terance Mann has played a lot in the lead guard spot, but he seems ticketed for a bigger role in Ty Lue’s three-wing lineups alongside Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Bones Hyland would seemingly be the answer, but his role was fairly limited after LA acquired him at the trade deadline.

The guess here is that Hyland gets the first shot at playing behind Westbrook. The Clippers can use the early months of the season to evaluate Hyland’s play, and if they need to upgrade, that will be a trade deadline priority. Mann will probably see some on-ball reps too, because there’s a comfort level there with him.

And, like the above question, a Harden trade could throw all of this out of whack.

Los Angeles Lakers

Who is the fifth starter? 

The Lakers have four starting spots spoken for with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell inked in. The fifth spot offers a lot of options, not just with players, but with style of play too.

It’s no secret Davis doesn’t like playing center. That could lead to a second big starting games, even if almost everyone seems to recognize that Los Angeles is at their best with Davis at the five. If the Lakers go this way, Jarred Vanderbilt is an option, as is Christian Wood or possibly Jaxson Hayes. Vanderbilt started a lot for the Lakers after being acquired at the trade deadline. Wood was an established starter before a messy season in Dallas. And Hayes would be one of those “start, sub out five minutes in and doesn’t return” guys in each half.

If the Lakers go a little smaller, Rui Hachimura or Taurean Prince seem to have the leg up on the competition. Hachimura reportedly prepared this offseason as if he’d start. And the Lakers paid him like a starting option. Prince has a long history of starting, and he’d bring a little more shooting to the opening group, along with decent size. Either would be an acceptable option, with Hachimura probably ahead of Prince.

If the Lakers go a lot smaller, they could slide everyone up a position and open games with Gabe Vincent. That shifts Russell into even more of a scoring role, where he’s more comfortable. And Vincent is best option for defending opposing point guards on the roster.

Ultimately, this is going to come down to Darvin Ham finding balance for his players and lineups. There are a lot of options, and this might involve some experimentation before Ham finds the right mix.

Who settles in as the primary backup shooting guard? 

As much as the Lakers have options for their fifth starter, they don’t have a lot of depth in the backcourt. And that’s sort of funny, considering this team was so guard-heavy last season.

All of the options are relatively unproven. Cam Reddish is on team number four in five seasons. He’s never quite put it together enough to hold down a regular rotation role. Max Christie is heading into his second season. His rookie year was fairly ho-hum, but Christie was productive in the G League and terrific in Summer League. He could be poised for a breakout year.

The other options are rookies Jalen Hood-Schifino and Maxwell Lewis. Hood-Schifino has primarily been an on-ball player, and he’s a really iffy scorer and shooter. Lewis looks like he’s ready to score and shoot, but he’s in over his head with everything else. If either of these rookies is playing major minutes for the Lakers, they were either better than expected, or a lot went wrong for Los Angeles.

The guess here is that Reddish gets the first shot, simply because he’s the veteran option. But Christie looks like he has the best mix of offensive skills, along with being a helpful perimeter defender. Look for him to win the role before long.

Phoenix Suns

Who is the fifth starter? 

The Suns have four of their starters locked in with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic. The fifth spot is wide open, and it’s a key one.

Josh Okogie started the first preseason game and new coach Frank Vogel praised what he brings to the floor. In an opening group full of offense-first guys, Okogie can focus on defense and moving the ball. One challenge with starting Okogie is that the Suns end up being somewhat small. It’s not all that major of a problem, but it does task Durant with doing more as a pick-and-roll defender and on the interior. That could add wear and tear that Phoenix would rather avoid putting on him in the regular season.

If being that small proves to be a problem, Vogel could turn to Keita Bates-Diop to start. It went mostly unnoticed as he toiled for the unwatched Spurs, but Bates-Diop put up 51/39/79 shooting splits last season on decent volume. If that three-point shooting is even remotely real, the Suns got a steal for the veteran minimum.

Other options could include Yuta Watanabe, but his all-gas, no-brake energy is a huge plus off the bench. Nassir Little could be an option, as he’s played as a small four in the past. But he’ll need some time to settle in after being acquired right before camp started. Grayson Allen could also get a look, if the Suns really lean into the offense and want another ballhandler on the floor.

Bet on a mix between Okogie and Bates-Diop. They both provide defense, along with being content to play without the ball on offense. Those are desired skills, in a top-heavy lineup of offensive stars.

Who is the backup point guard? 

Phoenix is committed to playing without a pure point guard in the starting lineup. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal have all been offensive hubs before, so that shouldn’t be a big problem. When Deandre Ayton was still with the Suns, it might have gotten tricky to make sure a bunch of score-first guys fed him enough touches. With Jusuf Nurkic, and his more-versatile skillset in town, that’s less of a worry.

Behind the openers, the Suns backup point guard spot remains in flux. Grayson Allen has played a decent amount on-ball, so he’ll be in the mix. Eric Gordon has primarily been an off-ball guy, but he could be in for a late-career expansion of his playmaking duties.

The best pure point guard option is Jordan Goodwin, who Phoenix did well to acquire in the Beal-Chris Paul swap. Goodwin fought his way to a standard contract by outplaying his two-way status. In a group of imperfect options, he’s the best point guard defender and the one with the most lead guard experience. Look for Goodwin to eventually emerge as a key rotation piece.

Sacramento Kings

How does the perimeter rotation shake out? 

The Kings are mostly running back last year’s highly successful group. Sacramento renegotiated-and-extended Domantas Sabonis, extended Harrison Barnes, and re-signed Trey Lyles and Alex Len. After breaking their playoff drought, the Kings prioritized continuity over flashy free agent additions.

The new faces in the rotation are both perimeter players. Sasha Vezenkov finally signed, after being drafted in 2017, and Chris Duarte was acquired in a salary-dumping trade from the Indiana Pacers. Both players should factor in immediately in helping to beef up the Kings wing group.

Vezenkov will likely form a three-forward rotation with Barnes and second-year stud Keegan Murray. All three players are relatively interchangeable, and each can play in tandem with the others. Vezenkov is NBA-ready with his shooting and scoring, so he’ll play a big role for the Kings this season.

Duarte will swing between the forward and guard spots. He’ll give Mike Brown a bigger option in the backcourt behind starter Kevin Huerter than he had last season. And if Sacramento downsizes and tries to spread things out, Duarte can slide up and play at the three. There are bench unit possibilities that feature Vezenkov, Duarte, Malik Monk and Davion Mitchell that have to make Brown giddy.

One last note: The additions of Vezenkov and Duarte probably don’t leave a lot of forward minutes leftover for Trey Lyles. That means Lyles primary minutes could come from backing up Sabonis. That’s probably fine, as Lyles can certainly handle that role as a stretch-five option.

Related: Who will be the backup center? 

This is somewhat of a first-NBA-world problem. Which is pretty cool for the Kings, if you think about where they’ve been for years. But it’s still something Mike Brown will have to sort out.

As mentioned above, Trey Lyles will probably have to play a good amount at the five, if the Kings are going to make sure to leave plenty of minutes to work in both Sasha Vezenkov and Chris Duarte. Lyles saw about 40% of his minutes at center last year, and that feels like it will increase this season. On nights when Sacramento needs to go bigger, he’ll swing over to power forward, but this year’s roster construction should see him playing center more than ever.

Alex Len re-emerged late last season as Domantas Sabonis’ primary backup. After playing mostly garbage time for the first five months of the season, Len saw 13 minutes per game behind Sabonis over the season’s final few weeks. He then featured regularly in the team’s first-round playoff series too. Len never took more than five shots in a single game, but he averaged 5.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks to close the regular season.

JaVale McGee was brought in after he was bought out by the Dallas Mavericks. McGee is heading into Season 16 and he wasn’t very productive in Dallas last year. But he’s got a good relationship with Brown and could have one more solid season of backup play in him. If nothing else, he’s a good locker room addition for the Kings.

Look for Lyles to get the bulk of the minimal backup minutes behind Sabonis (the Kings star plays about 34-35 minutes per game). McGee will probably get the veteran nod early on, when Sacramento needs a bigger option. But Len will be heard from before the season ends. He was too productive be relegated back to a deep bench role.

 

Keith SmithOctober 03, 2023

The NBA’s headline-grabbing offseason transactions happen from late-June through mid-July. The action starts just before the NBA Draft and continues until most of the major free agents are off the board by mid-July.

After that, attention turns to the start of the NFL and college football seasons, fantasy drafts, the start of the Premier League season and MLB postseason races. But NBA teams don’t stop working.

No, this isn’t about the dragged out “Dame’s of Our Lives” saga that only resolved days ahead of training camp. Nor is it about James Harden sitting out as the Philadelphia 76ers begin training camp.

This is about the hundreds of transactions for players you’ve rarely heard of. This is about how teams stock their training camp rosters, while also beefing up the rosters of their G League affiliate teams.

This is about Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 contracts. This about those on the fringes of the NBA. Veterans trying to hang on for one more run, young guys looking for a chance and everyone in between.

What are Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 contracts?

Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 contracts are commonly referred to as “summer contracts” or “training camp contracts”. These players are being brought in to provide competition in training camp, to give coaches some extra bodies for drills and scrimmages, and sometimes to prove they are worthy of a regular season roster spot.

Both Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 contracts are one-year, fully non-guaranteed contracts. (A team could technically sign a player who was from another team, or from outside of the NBA, to a four-year, maximum contract on a summer contract (not an Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 deal), but that’s never happened and will likely never happen for many reasons.) In addition, they do not count against the salary cap or the luxury tax. They are very much “make good” deals in every sense of the word.

If a player proves worthy of sticking around, teams have a few options. We’ll cover the uniqueness of an Exhibit 10 contract in a moment, because it has some different parameters around it.

If a team wants to keep a player on an Exhibit 9 deal, the simplest process is to keep them on the roster for opening night. At that point, the player’s contract converts from an Exhibit 9 contract to a standard non-guaranteed contract. It begins to count against the salary cap and the luxury tax, just like any other standard contract. If the team wants to guarantee the deal, they can do so at any time. Otherwise, the contract will become fully guaranteed on the league-wide guarantee date of January 10. (In reality, contracts become fully guaranteed on January 7, because players have to clear waivers by January 10 to avoid their deals becoming fully guaranteed. Thus, the last day to waive a player on a non-guaranteed deal is actually January 7. Aren’t date-based technicalities fun?)

If a team keeps a player from an Exhibit 9 contract for the full season, after it converts to a standard deal, that player is then a free agent following the season. If eligible, the team can issue them a qualifying offer to make the player a restricted free agent. Otherwise, they become an unrestricted free agent.

Let’s say a player looks so good that the team wants to keep them long-term. Options for a guy on an Exhibit 9 deal are somewhat limited. They can do the process above, but that only converts the deal to a one-year contract. If a team wants to risk it, they can waive the player from their Exhibit 9 deal and hope that they clear waivers. At that point, the player would be a free agent and the team can sign them to whatever type of contract they have available to them via cap space or via an exception.

What is specific about an Exhibit 9 contract?

An Exhibit 9 contract includes a provision that protects the player against injury while under that contract. If a player is injured while on an Exhibit 9 deal, the team is responsible for paying that player $15,000 (this is up from $6,000 in the prior CBA). That $15,000 does hit the salary cap and luxury tax as a form of dead money charge, upon the player being waived.

Lastly, teams can’t sign more than six players to an Exhibit 9 contract at any given time.

What is specific about an Exhibit 10 contract?

An Exhibit 10 contract is unique in that it has ties to the G League. Everything works the same as laid out above, with a few key differences.

A player on an Exhibit 10 contract can be converted to a two-way contract, provided that player is eligible to play on a two-way deal. (In order to be two-way eligible, a player must have three years of service or less. If they have four years of service, they have to have missed an entire season of games in those first four seasons. Note: This is years of service, not the year the player is currently in. A year of service isn’t earned until after the current season completes.)

Players who sign Exhibit 10 contracts are also eligible for a bonus if they play for the NBA team’s G League affiliate after being waived. For the 2023-24 season, that bonus can range from $5,000 to $75,000. (The maximum amount will increase by the same percentage as the salary cap does for future years. This was changed in the current CBA from being a set amount in the previous CBA.) In order to receive this bonus, a player must report to and remain with the G League affiliate for a period of no less than 60 days.

The most common process for a player on an Exhibit 10 contract to stick on the regular season NBA roster is to be converted to a two-way deal. However, teams can undertake a series of transactions if they want to get one of these players on a long-term standard deal without exposing the player to a waiver claim.

In this case, a team can convert the player to a two-way contract, then from their two-way contract they can sign the player to a long-term standard deal. Although the Exhibit 10 deal and the following two-way contract would both be terminated, the player is not exposed to waivers during this process of conversions/signings.

A team can also convert an Exhibit 10 contract directly to a standard contract, as was laid out above. In this case the deal becomes a one-year, non-guaranteed minimum contract. The same guarantee dates and process exist, as laid out above.

The deadline for converting an Exhibit 10 contract to a two-way deal or a standard deal are ahead of the regular season.

Like an Exhibit 9 or a summer contract, an Exhibit 10 contract does not count against the salary cap or the luxury tax.

Does anyone make a team from these deals?

The answer to this question used to be no. It was very rare to see a player make a team after being on a summer contract/training camp deal. With the advent of two-way contracts, conversions to two-way deals became a fairly common occurrence.

However, in recent years, several veteran players have played their way off their camp deal and made a regular season roster. The most famous example of this is probably Dwight Howard, who made the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers after starting on an Exhibit 9 contract. Howard was then a big part of the Lakers winning the 2020 NBA Finals.

How many players are currently on Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 contracts?

As of this writing, there are 95 players on rosters that are currently signed to an Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 contract. Several other players have already been signed and waived that were on Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 deals. That brings the total number to well over 100 of these deals already this offseason. There are likely to be several more of these sign-and-waive type of transactions, as it’s how teams regularly provide players with bonuses for joining their G League affiliate after the NBA preseason. (Note: Even if a player is playing for a G League affiliate after an Exhibit 10 contract, the NBA team has no claim to that player. They are considered an NBA free agent and able to sign with any team.)

Some notable veteran players that are currently signed to an Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 contract include Rudy Gay and Rodney McGruder (Golden State Warriors), Harry Giles III (Brooklyn Nets), Romeo Langford (Utah Jazz), Mac McClung (Orlando Magic), Lamar Stevens (Boston Celtics) and Edmond Sumner (Charlotte Hornets).

It’s a good bet that at least a few of those players will have their contract converted and will be on a standard NBA contract on opening night.

Keith SmithOctober 03, 2023

The NBA preseason is right around the corner. Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Southeast Division and Southwest Division teams.

Boston Celtics

Who are the starters? 

Boston has a top-six that rivals or bests almost every other team in the NBA. That’s hardly a problem, but it does leave Joe Mazzulla deciding who goes to the bench when everyone is available to play. While many other coaches would love to have such troubles, it can be a tricky equation with egos, salaries and lineup balance all in play.

Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are all locks to start. Jrue Holiday is about a 99.9% lock to start. That leaves the last spot down to Al Horford or Derrick White. Two drastically different players, resulting in some drastically different styles of plays and different rotations.

Horford has come off the bench in exactly 10 of the 1,013 NBA games that he’s played. Four times were in his rookie season with the Atlanta Hawks and the other six times were during the one disastrous season Horford spent with the Philadelphia 76ers. The veteran big man has started all 340 regular season games he’s played with the Celtics, and all 89 playoff games.

Derrick White’s role in Boston has yo-yoed back and forth between starting and coming off the bench. He was mostly a reserve during the Celtics 2022 NBA Finals run. Last season, White started in 70 of his 82 regular season games and 16 of his 20 playoff games.

That logic says White probably goes to the bench, but that might be too simple of an answer.

Boston’s big man rotation is pretty thin behind Porzingis and Horford. Right now, Luke Kornet (who the Celtics believe in as a regular season guy for 15-20 minutes per game) and newly-added Wenyen Gabriel are the primary backup bigs. As we learned last season, Mazzulla’s preferred rotation only has room for three bigs. So, it’ll probably be Porzingis, Horford and Kornet most nights.

We also learned that Mazzulla loves to play five-out. If he can start two ball-hawking, playmaking guards in Holiday and White, alongside his star wings in Brown and Tatum, with Porzingis pulling opposing bigs away from the paint, Mazzulla is going to do it. He’s at least going to go that grouping a lot, even if it doesn’t start.

Against certain teams, like the Milwaukee Bucks or Philadelphia 76ers, Mazzulla may lean on Horford to start, with White coming off the bench. Horford has historically been Boston’s best matchup for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. And the next two best guys to guard those two big stars, Grant Williams and Marcus Smart, are no longer in green.

The reality is that the Celtics will say the typical “We have six starters” sort of stuff. Maybe Horford and White share the fifth spot, with White starting on the nights that Horford sits. The big man isn’t subject to the NBA’s new resting policy, and he’s already at the point where he doesn’t play back-to-back sets.

The guess here is that this remains pretty fluid. And a non-guess is that both Horford and White understand the goal is to win a title. They’ll sacrifice starting if that’s what it takes to achieve that goal.

Related: Is there enough off the bench? 

Boston’s depth was pretty well sapped this summer. They traded away a starter in Marcus Smart, a swing starter/reserve in Rob Williams, the Sixth Man of the Year in Malcolm Brogdon and versatile backup big Grant Williams.

That’s a lot of talent headed out the door.

The Celtics believe that Payton Pritchard is ready for a bigger role as an every-night backup point guard. He’s been a knockdown shooter throughout his career, is a developing playmaker and he’s a competitive defender, despite a lack of size.

Sam Hauser returns in his designated shooter role. But Hauser also held up remarkably well on defense. And by the end of last season, he was showing the ability to make something happen off the dribble against hard closeouts.

As we covered above, Luke Kornet and Wenyen Gabriel will be the third and fourth bigs. That’s probably a step ahead of where they’d ideally be slotted in a rotation, but Boston can make do.

After that, the Celtics will be hoping that someone emerges out of Oshae Brissett, Dalano Banton, Svi Mykhailiuk, Lamar Stevens and rookie Jordan Walsh. All bring a different mix of skills, and over the course of a long regular season, all will probably have opportunities to contribute.

Whoever ends up as Boston’s sixth man will be very good, and will bring starter-level production. It’s important to find another four or five guys to contribute throughout 82 games to keep Joe Mazzulla from having to run the starters into the ground. Keep an eye on Brad Stevens using his $6.2 million TPE from the Grant Williams trade to bring in some additional help by the trade deadline.

Brooklyn Nets

Who is the starting point guard? 

On its face, this seems to be a pretty easy answer: Spencer Dinwiddie. But things are rarely that simple, especially when Ben Simmons is involved.

Simmons is full-go for training camp after playing just 100 games over the last three seasons. Simmons also recently said that he’s a point guard, no matter how much people keep trying to make him everything but a lead playmaker.

Thus, the question of who starts.

Dinwiddie started all 26 of his games for the Nets after being acquired at the trade deadline. He’s also got a long history with the team from his previous stint in Brooklyn. Ultimately, Dinwiddie is the safer option. He’s been relatively durable, and he’s productive, if somewhat inefficient.

But Simmons still has that star upside. After the last two messy seasons, it’s easy to forget that Simmons was a three-time All-Star with the 76ers. He was also the NBA’s most versatile defender, equally as good at guarding all five positions. And despite the lack of a jump shot, Simmons was a top-tier playmaker and could still provide some points too.

If that guy remains in there somewhere, Simmons unlocks a whole new level for the Nets. Imagine the havoc a trio of Simmons, Mikal Bridges and Nic Claxton could wreak on opposing offenses?

The guess here is that Dinwiddie starts, but by the holidays, Simmons takes over. If Simmons hasn’t won the job back by then, he’s probably either hurt or simply doesn’t have it anymore. At that point, Brooklyn has to decide what to do with the $78.2 million he’s owed this season and next.

Who starts at forward? 

Assuming Cam Johnson’s hamstring injury isn’t serious, and it doesn’t seem to be, Jacque Vaughn has an interesting decision to make at the forward position. Johnson is a for-sure starter. That leaves the other spot down to Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O’Neale. Finney-Smith started all 26 games he played for the Nets after the trade deadline, while O’Neale moved to a bench role.

Seems like Finney-Smith will start, and that’s probably how it will go. But O’Neale has historically been a better shooter, and this starting group is a bit light on shooting. Defensively, Finney-Smith has a bit more size, but the two are fairly comparable. So, it might not be quite as cut-and-dry as it seems.

There’s also a slight chance that Simmons starts, and Dinwiddie moves to an off-ball role. That would likely push both Mikal Bridges and Johnson to the starting forward roles. That makes things a little messy for the bench forward rotation, but it could be a way for Vaughn to get the most playmaking on the floor.

The bet here is that Finney-Smith starts, but O’Neale is heavily involved. Maybe, and it’s a big maybe, Dinwiddie moves back to the off-ball role (in which he was quite good with Dallas), and Simmons starts alongside him, with Bridges and Johnson as the forwards. But that’s probably a pretty far down-the-line thing, if ever.

New York Knicks

Who is the backup power forward? 

The last three seasons Julius Randle has averaged 37.6, 35.3 and 35.5 minutes per game. He’s been pretty durable too, playing in 71, 72 and 77 games.

So, Randle’s backup doesn’t exactly have a major role. But it is still a question that needs answered. Especially if Randle was to miss time for any reason.

In the regular season, it seems likely that player will be Josh Hart. Is that unconventional? Sure. Can Hart do it? He sure can.

Despite being a 6-foot-5 wing, Hart is one of the better rebounders in the NBA. Not just for his size, but period. Hart has a terrific nose for the ball, he’s got great timing and he’s extremely tough. He’s equally adept at digging out defensive boards, as he is sneaking in and stealing second chance opportunities.

Hart also plays bigger than his size on defense. He’s pretty rugged, which allows him to hold up against all but the biggest fours in the NBA. Considering the Knicks will also always have a true five on the floor, Hart will have that backside rim protection for the handful of guys who can overpower him inside. And playing Hart as the backup four eases the congestion of a very crowded wing rotation (more on that in a bit!).

But…and this is a big but…what if Randle goes down?

Tom Thibodeau embraced the unconventional-ness of Hart as a backup four, but he’s not likely to go that way if Randle can’t play. In the five games Randle missed at the end of last regular season, Thibodeau went with the departed Obi Toppin as the starter.

As it stands right now, the Knicks don’t have another option. New York has fooled around with some double-center looks, and that might be the answer if Randle was to miss a lot of time. But that puts a lot of added stress on the offense.

Let’s call this lack of a true backup four something that isn’t a problem…until it is. And that’s the best New York can hope for right now.

Related: What is the wing rotation? 

As mentioned above, the Knicks have a lot of wings. RJ Barrett and Quentin Grimes are entrenched as starters. Josh Hart will see plenty of wing minutes. Donte DiVincenzo was added this summer as a value signing for most of the Non-Taxpayer MLE. And, if that wasn’t already enough, Immanuel Quickley also plays some off-ball minutes too. Oh, and Evan Fournier is still on this roster too!

We can take Fournier out of the mix. New York would have to suffer a lot of injuries before Fournier would get back in the mix. As it stands, he remains a major trade chip to rebalance the roster, or as valuable salary-matching in a trade for a star.

But that leaves five guys for two spots. And Barrett is going to play somewhere between 33 and 35 minutes per game. So, it’s really one spot and a handful of other minutes. As we covered already, Hart will see a chunk of his minutes backing up Julius Randle at the four.

That should leave enough minutes for Donte DiVincenzo to see 20 or so minutes a night off the bench. And Quickley should get 28-30 minutes per game between the two guard spots.

It’s not really a problem for Tom Thibodeau, especially if he continues to ramp down his starter’s minutes this season, as he did last year. But there is a chance someone could get uncomfortable here, due to a lesser than ideal amount of playing time. At that point, it’s likely the Knicks front office has a decision to make on a roster-rebalancing trade.

Philadelphia 76ers

Who starts at guard if James Harden isn’t there? 

As of this writing, James Harden has skipped Media Day for the Sixers. It’s unknown if he’ll show up for training camp or not. If Harden truly holds out, he’s got a 30-day window to figure things out, or he might not be allowed to become a free agent after this season.

For this question, we’re going to take the approach that Harden isn’t a part of things for the Sixers this season. Whether it’s a holdout, the team just sits him out or Harden gets his long-awaited trade, we’ll assume he’s out of the picture.

That leaves the second guard spot next to Tyrese Maxey open. More often than not, De’Anthony Melton got that call when either Maxey or Harden missed time last season. He’s probably got the first crack at that position again this season too.

However, Nick Nurse is now coaching the 76ers and he might want to go in a different direction. Over the last couple of seasons with the Toronto Raptors, Nurse has run bigger lineups that featured one true guard. Could he run some version of that in Philadelphia?

If Nurse wants to go big, he could start Kelly Oubre Jr. or veteran wing Danny Green. Danuel House Jr. and Furkan Korkmaz are both still around, but neither seems like they’d snag a starting spot.

If Nurse wanted to go smaller, he could also call upon veteran guard Patrick Beverley to start. Beverley hasn’t come off the bench for several years, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him start.

Since none of the bigger options are all that appealing, look for Melton and Beverley to battle for the starting spot. One benefit of bringing Melton off the bench is that he’s done it regularly. Melton can also easily sub for, and play alongside, either Maxey or Beverley.

What is the wing rotation? 

Kelly Oubre Jr. was a late addition, but a good one. Oubre isn’t the most efficient guy, but he can score. That still has value, especially in a reserve role. If James Harden isn’t around, the 76ers are going to need someone to replace some of his scoring. Oubre can do that.

After him, it gets a little messy. Maybe Danny Green can regain his 3&D form, but he’s 36 years old and didn’t look great physically last season. Danuel House Jr. and Furkan Korkmaz have never quite been able to grab consistent rotation roles. Maybe Jaden Springer breaks through in his third year. But he’s only played 18 total NBA games, and Springer’s G League production is a little iffy. He mostly overpowered outmatched players with his athleticism to get his points, which won’t happen in the NBA.

This is a spot that could get cleaned up considerably if Daryl Morey eventually trades James Harden. Of course, if Harden is in the fold, and actually tries, then this problem is also lessened. But given we’ve seen what Harden did in both Houston and Brooklyn when he wanted a trade, the 76ers might be worse off if he actually plays.

Toronto Raptors

Who starts? 

Toronto is in transition, even if they don’t fully seem to want to admit it. Kyle Lowry is long gone, Fred VanVleet is gone, and Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are pending free agents. But for now, new coach Darko Rajakovic has to put a team on the floor that features the latter two.

And that’s where his opening group is formed, along with Scottie Barnes. After that, it’s somewhat of an open question. For most of last season, Nick Nurse favored starting small without a true center. After the team acquired Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline, everyone slid down a position, and Gary Trent Jr. went to the bench.

This season could look similar. Toronto will probably open with the three forwards alongside Poeltl, with Dennis Schroder running the point. Both Siakam and Barnes are capable of running the offense, but it’s likely the rookie coach will want an actual point guard leading his offense.

That means Trent, after opting in for this season, is back in a bench role in a contract year. This is probably another one of those “We have six starters” situations, but it’s pretty clear Trent will be the sixth man here. If he bristles at that, things could get messy.

Starting Poeltl, Siakam, Anunoby, Barnes and Schroder could also be messy spacing-wise. Only Anunoby can be considered a reliable shooter of that group, and he doesn’t have that single-player gravity to create spacing for everyone else.

The real answer to this problem is a trade. The Raptors reportedly were in on trying to get Damian Lillard and that would have made sense in so many ways. Media Day in Toronto was weird, because neither Siakam nor the team’s leadership seemed overly committed to each other. And Anunoby has been looking for a bigger role.

This version of the Raptors was past their expiration date over a year or so ago. But they just keep moving along, with only minor changes. It’s past time for a shakeup, but for now, this group is what it is.

Who is the backup point guard? 

This feels like it’s been a long-term question for the Raptors. Dennis Schroder seems very likely to start, but who backs him up is an open competition. To some extent, it’ll be Pascal Siakam or Scottie Barnes running the offense when Schroder sits, but it’d be nice to see a real backup floor general emerge.

Malachi Flynn is still around, but we’re in Year 4 of hoping he pops. Not much from the previous three years gives off much confidence that will happen. Jeff Dowtin is really interesting, and has been really good in the G League. But Dowtin is 26 years old and doesn’t even have a fully guaranteed contract.

Veteran guard Garrett Temple was added this summer, but he hasn’t been a regular rotation player in over four years. Markquis Nowell is a fun player to watch and monitor. But he’s 5-foot-8, on a two-way deal and he shot under 40% in college. Nowell will have to prove himself in the G League first.

As Toronto has repeatedly leaned into adding lengthy wings (and they did it again this summer by signing Jalen McDaniels), they’ve ignored the backup point guard spot. That’s coming home to roost now. The Raptors might need to lean on Dennis Schroder to play a lot. That historically has come with mixed results. Much like the question about the starting group, this could, and should, be fixed with a trade. But it’s long past time to quit holding our breath waiting on that to happen.

 

Keith SmithOctober 01, 2023

When the Milwaukee Bucks acquired Damian Lillard from the Portland Trail Blazers, conventional wisdom was that the balance of the power in the NBA had shifted. The Bucks were immediately proclaimed not only Eastern Conference favorites, but NBA title favorites as well.

On the other side, the Blazers weren’t destined to keep Jrue Holiday for long. The veteran guard didn’t really fit Portland’s rebuilding plan, which involves several young backcourt players.

Enter the Boston Celtics. In a trade that may have tilted the East and the title odds back toward Boston, the Celtics acquired Holiday from Portland on the eve of NBA Media Day.

The trade details are:

Boston Celtics acquire: Jrue Holiday

Boston Celtics trade: Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, 2024 first-round pick from the Golden State Warriors (top-4 protected in 2024, top-1 protected in 2025, unprotected in 2026) and 2029 unprotected first-round pick from Boston

Portland Trail Blazers acquire: Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, 2024 first-round pick from the Golden State Warriors (top-4 protected in 2024, top-1 protected in 2025, unprotected in 2026) and 2029 unprotected first-round pick from Boston

Portland Trail Blazers trade: Jrue Holiday

Boston Celtics

Incoming salary ($36.9M in 2023-24) 

Outgoing salary ($34.1M in 2023-24) 

The Boston Celtics are all-in. There is no other way to describe it. Boston added nearly $3 million in salary to a roster that was already $13.4 million over the tax line.

But the Celtics had to make this move.

When the Milwaukee Bucks added Damian Lillard, Boston had to counter by adding another perimeter defender. Derrick White is excellent, but the idea of defending the Bucks with White as the only good on-ball option was worrisome.

Now, Boston has the best defensive backcourt in the NBA. And they added offensive punch to their frontcourt in their previous big trade. This is the most balanced team the Celtics have had in years, and that’s saying something considering the considerable success this team has had.

Jrue Holiday is essentially the replacement for Marcus Smart, who was traded in the deal that brought Kristaps Porzingis to Boston. Smart’s defense slipped noticeably last season, but that was likely the result of years of wear-and-tear finally catching up with him. After he gave it everything he had to win Defensive Player of the Year in 2022, Smart just wasn’t the same guy last season. White was a better defender, and not by a small margin. But that doesn’t mean replacing Smart was going to be an easy task. Far from it.

In what was considered to a be down year for Holiday, he was still first-team All-Defense. White made second team All-Defense. There simply isn’t a backcourt in the NBA that approaches what these two can do together. Add to it that they both have enough size to switch with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and Boston is re-entering their “switch everything” days.

And that’s a massive part of the reimagining of the Celtics.

The last few seasons have seen Boston become reliant on two-big lineups. Whether it was Al Horford and Rob Williams, or Horford and Grant Williams, or Williams and Williams, or Horford and Daniel Theis, or various other combinations, the Celtics generally played with two big men on the floor.

Now, Joe Mazzulla projects to go smaller and even more five-out, but with more versatility on the floor. It’s likely that the openers for Boston will be Tatum, Brown, White, Holiday and Porzingis. Boston will switch everything with the initial foursome, with Porzingis sitting back in drop coverage, or in help position near the rim. It’s possible Mazzulla will bring back the roamer role that Williams excelled in, using Porzingis as a floater along the backline of the defense.

When they stay more straight up, the Celtics are positioned to play hedge coverages, with Holiday fighting over and around screens. His screen navigation, both on- and off-ball remains elite. The Celtics may also run chained together hand-offs, all designed around allowing the ball to be funneled to Porzingis as a shot blocker.

When Horford, who seems likely to head to a bench role because of Boston’s lack of big man depth (more on that soon!), comes into the game, Boston may straight switch everything one through five. Horford still holds up fairly well against all but the quickest of perimeter players. That type of defensive scheme versatility will make it hard to score on Boston.

The Celtics will miss Rob Williams’ rim protection, same as they are going to miss Grant Williams’ terrific positional defense. But the latter is long gone now, and the former was never a good bet to stay healthy. If Time Lord could be counted on to be healthy for most of the regular season and in April, May and June, he wouldn’t have been traded. Sadly, that’s never been a reality the Celtics were able to enjoy, and hard as it was, it’s understandable that they chose to move on.

This trade gives Mazzulla a lot more defensive versatility than he had a few days ago. On the other side of the ball, Boston also becomes more dynamic.

Holiday has always been a very good shooter. He’s good off the dribble, and excellent when he spots up. In his three seasons with the Bucks, Holiday put up 49/39/80 shooting splits. Even as his three-point attempts increased, his accuracy remained good.

When Boston traded Smart, the immediate focuses were on his defense, leadership and toughness. All fair worries, but all things Holiday will replace quite well. But the Celtics also lost Smart’s playmaking. He was the team’s best passer, and Boston had some questions, even with Tatum taking on more of the creation role.

Now, Mazzulla has options. Tatum is still going to have the ball a lot, as will Brown. They are the engines that make the Celtics go. White will get a fair number of touches too. But, when necessary, Holiday is more than capable of running the show.

It’s fair to expect that the Celtics offense might be a little bumpy to open the season. They’re adding in two new players, both of which are used to having primary or secondary roles in their team’s offense. It’s going to take a little while for that pecking order to figure itself out. But eventually, Holiday will be Boston’s fourth option, and not many teams have a player as good as Holiday in that slot.

There’s some additional pressure on Payton Pritchard now. He wanted a change, and he’s going to get it as the Celtics third guard. He’s not going to be asked to replace Brogdon’s Sixth Man of the Year production, but Pritchard has to provide shooting, some playmaking and enough defense to be playable.

But the offensive and defensive fit, and roles are the least worrisome parts of this trade. The most worrisome portion of this trade is the Celtics frontcourt depth. Even if the team will play smaller lineups more often, and even factoring in Williams’ injury history, Boston is thin up front.

It’s pretty much Porzingis and Horford now. And Porzingis has a lengthy injury history of his own, and Horford is 37 years old. If Porzingis gets hurt again (he did deal with a case of plantar fasciitis over the summer) or Horford falls off (less likely, as he’s remained rock solid), Boston will be in trouble.

Luke Kornet has generally been solid for the Celtics when called upon. But he’s much more of a fourth or fifth big than a third big. Boston is reportedly signing Wenyen Gabriel. He’s also a solid player, but again, more of a fourth option. Brad Stevens might not be done seeking out additional big man depth. Boston is still sitting on a $6.2 million TPE. That could come into play at some point down the line.

The last thing we want to cover is Holiday’s future beyond this season. He has a $39.4 million player option for 2024-25, but it’s unlikely Holiday will play on that number next year. He’ll either opt out and head into free agency, or he may work out a long-term extension with the Celtics. It’s already been reported both Holiday and Boston want to make this a long-term partnership.

We’ll cover Holiday’s extension possibilities in depth in a future Next Contract series. For now, it seems likely Boston will do what they can to get Holiday signed to a new deal. Ideally, they’d bring his 2024-25 salary down by a considerable amount, while adding three or four new years to his deal.

As it stands right now, if Holiday picked up his option, Boston would basically be in the luxury tax for the 2024-25 season with just five players with Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, White and the newly added Holiday. Add in the guaranteed salaries for Horford and rookie Jordan Walsh, and the Celtics will be well into the tax next season.

But that’s the cost of trying to win a title in the NBA. And the Boston Celtics are all in on winning Banner 18.

Portland Trail Blazers

Incoming salary ($36.9M in 2023-24) 

Outgoing salary ($34.1M in 2023-24) 

Much like we did with the trade with the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns that delivered Holiday to Portland, we’re going to keep this relatively simple.

Malcolm Brogdon probably won’t be in Portland very long. He’s probably going to be traded before long. Brogdon may stick around longer than Holiday, only because camps are starting in a few days. But the Trail Blazers are going to keep things moving and will flip Brogdon for even more additional assets. Because of that, we’re not going to focus on Brogdon’s fit with the Blazers at all. It’s simply not going to matter.

Rob Williams, on the other hand, is a bit of a curious addition, as Portland previously acquired Deandre Ayton as their center of the future. Ayton and Williams aren’t a workable combination, so this is a depth and “Why not?” type of double-down acquisition for Portland.

Williams is an athletic marvel. He catches and dunks lobs that most guys wouldn’t get fingertips on. Williams will block shots from out of nowhere, and regularly go back up and block the putback too. He’s also a ferocious finisher around the rim. His rebounding is greatly improved and he’s also a terrific passer.

On the downside, Williams is also a good bet to miss considerable chunks of each season. The healthiest he’s ever been was in the 2021-22 season. Just as Boston was morphing into a juggernaut, Williams tore his meniscus, missed the end of the regular season, some of the playoffs and never looked quite right when he got back late in the Celtics 2022 NBA Finals run.

But this is the kind of mini gamble Portland can make right now. If Williams gets healthy, he’ll team with Ayton to give the team 48 minutes of very good center play. As the Blazers grow, Williams will become an important piece because of his defense.

If nothing else, Williams is another tradable asset. He’s on a great contract. If Portland decides they don’t need him, it’s a lock that some contender will happily make a deal to pick up Williams, in hopes that they can keep him healthy.

Last, but far from least, Portland added two more first-round picks in this deal. The top-4 protected pick from the Golden State Warriors is close to a lock to convey this year. Unless everything craters for the Warriors, the Blazers will get a non-lottery pick. If Golden State does fall apart fully, Portland will see that pick flip to top-1 protected in 2025. If by some change the Warriors are a two-year mess, the Trail Blazers will get an unprotected pick in 2026.

The real get is the 2029 first-round pick from the Celtics. By the time that pick comes due, it’s impossible to predict what Boston will be. Both Jrue Holiday and Al Horford will likely be retired. Kristaps Porzingis will be 34 years old and, if we’re being honest, probably long gone from Boston.

Jaylen Brown will be in the final year of his yet-to-start super max extension, and Jayson Tatum will be in Year 4 of his incoming super max extension. On paper, Brown and Tatum in their early-30s should be enough to keep Boston in contention. But a lot can, and will, change between now and then.

Much like they did in the deal with the Bucks, the Trail Blazers added another mystery box pick. If their young core proves ready to win in the next two or three years, Portland will have additional assets to use in trades to supplement that core. Just as Boston did in this deal. As it always has, the NBA transaction wheel rolls ever onward.

 

Keith SmithSeptember 27, 2023

It final happened. Essentially three months after Damian Lillard asked the Portland Trail Blazers for a trade, a deal was reached. And, somewhat surprisingly, Lillard was not sent to his preferred destination of the Miami Heat. Instead, Lillard is joining another Eastern Conference title contenders. The trade details are:

Whew!

Eight players and up to three draft picks in a three-team trade. And there’s always a chance this deal expands (or is followed up with a subsequent trade) if/when Jrue Holiday is rerouted to another team.

Milwaukee Bucks

Incoming Salary ($45.6M in 2023-24)

  • Damian Lillard (PG, 3 years, $152.8M + $63.2M player option, $45.6M in 2023-24)

Outgoing Salary ($45.7M in 2023-24)

The Milwaukee Bucks landed the star here in Damian Lillard. They saved a little bit of salary in the deal for this year, but that’s so negligible that it doesn’t really matter. Milwaukee functionally added three years and $162.5 million for the next three seasons, as Jrue Holiday was a near-lock to decline his player option for the 2024-25 season.

But as many have said: That’s the cost of doing business in the NBA.The Bucks were under pressure to prove Giannis Antetokounmpo that they were committed to winning now and, crucially, for years to come. Antetokounmpo himself said that Milwaukee’s commitment to winning titles would be the difference in him staying with the only franchise he’s ever known or signing elsewhere.

Mission accomplished…maybe?

Lillard is an incredible talent. He’s one of the best scoring guards in the NBA. He’s repeatedly come up big in clutch moments. He should fit in perfectly with Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez as the Bucks veteran core. Lillard has also been somewhat injury-prone over the last few seasons. Lillard is also 33 years old. And he’s nowhere near the defender that Milwaukee has been accustomed to having in Holiday. But he’s Damian freaking Lillard. And that should be enough.

The Bucks will be a different sort of team now. They traded defense for offense. But Antetokounmpo and Lopez should be able to clean up most messes caused by that downgrade on defense. The point of attack defense won’t be the same, but Adrian Griffin and his staff should be able to scheme around that fairly effectively.

As for offense, the Bucks are going to be lethal. Holiday wasn’t a bad offensive player, but he’s not Lillard. In his age-32 season last year, Lillard averaged a career-high 32.2 points on 46/37/91 shooting splits with a whopping 11.3 three-point attempts per game.

Now, Lillard will have the best offensive talent to work with that he’s ever had. Instead of a hard hedge or direct double-team when he comes off an on-ball screen, Lillard is probably getting a straight switch, or a defender trying to avoid a mismatch trailing over late. He should see cleaner looks than he’s seen in years.

In addition, the overall threat of Lillard, combined with his deep range, should open up the floor even more for Antetokounmpo’s driving game, and also Middleton, who thrives in the space in the middle. Brook Lopez will continue to see open looks, and Milwaukee can also put shooters like Pat Connaughton, Malik Beasley and A.J. Green on the floor too. That’s going to be a very spread offense with one of the games most terrifying drivers in Antetokounmpo looking down driving lanes.

It’s worth noting that Milwaukee traded their most-used starting backcourt in this deal, as Grayson Allen was sent to the Phoenix Suns. That means someone needs to be elevated to the starting lineup alongside Lillard. The Bucks could go with Pat Connaughton, who has started a decent amount. He’s a viable replacement for Allen’s shooting ability, while adding some better rebounding and similar defense.

Other options include Jae Crowder, if the Bucks want to go bigger and better defensively by moving Middleton back to the two. That one seems less likely, as Middleton and Crowder have both slowed somewhat as perimeter defenders. And then the Bucks need to find a backup four, which is Crowder’s current role, as Bobby Portis projects to play a lot at the five.

Malik Beasley was signed as a free agent, and he’d be a good fit in the starting group, if Griffin wants to leave others in roles that they are comfortable in. And don’t rule out A.J. Green as a surprise option. Green is a knockdown shooter and a developing playmaker. He’d be a passable fit for what Allen brought to the Bucks.

As for Giannis Antetokounmpo and extension possibilities, we covered that in depth here. Only Antetokounmpo, and probably time, will tell if acquiring Lillard was enough to get him thinking about reupping in Milwaukee. But all of the details for potential next contracts for Antetokounmpo are laid out in that piece.

Projected Starting 5: Damian Lillard, Malik Beasley, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez

Related: Bucks 2023-24 Salary Cap Table

Portland Trail Blazers

Incoming Salary ($70.3M in 2023-24)

Outgoing salary ($71.5M in 2023-24)

The Portland Trail Blazers side of this deal is a little incomplete. ESPN has already reported that Portland is trying to find a home for Jrue Holiday. That makes sense, as the Trail Blazers have little need for Holiday on their rebuilding team. Portland is also going to give the young guard group of Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons as many minutes as they can handle.

That means we’ll eventually have an additional component to evaluate here for the Blazers. Whatever they get for Holiday, either in an expanded deal or a separate one, will have to be a part of the overall analysis. Because of that, we aren’t going to spend any time on Holiday’s fit in Portland.

Instead, we’ll pivot to the big man in Deandre Ayton. Has Ayton failed to live up to his number one overall pick status? That’s probably fair to say. Is he a complete bust and a terrible player? Not even close. Ayton has averaged a double-double in each of his five NBA seasons. For reference, only eleven players (ten if you remove Anthony Davis as a non-qualifier due to games played) averaged a double-double last season. Ayton has done it for five straight years. That’s not nothing.

The outside shot has never become a thing, and Ayton likes his midrange and turnaround fallaway jumpers a bit too much, but he’s still an effective scorer around the rim. He’s also one of the better offensive rebounders in the league, which belies a lot of the lack-of-effort stuff he’s often accused of.

On defense, Ayton is far from a game-changer. But there’s untapped ability there. It’ll probably never get unlocked, but if it does, Ayton becomes a solid two-way player.

Contractually, Ayton’s deal isn’t bad, even if it is a max. He’s making under 24% of the cap in each of his remaining three seasons. Given the Trail Blazers only other sizable salaries are for Jerami Grant and Simons, they should be fine with Ayton in the mix. It’ll be a few years before paying anyone else is a thing in Portland.

Also, and this is probably the most important factor, Ayton fits in with the age timeline in Portland. He just turned 25. The rest of the Blazers core is between 19 and 26. Even if you include Jerami Grant, he’s only 29 years old. The team can grow this group together and figure out what they have over the next few seasons.

In the end, Portland acquired a talented center who can be a big part of the team’s new core. And they’ve been linked to Ayton for a while, which also helps things too. They’ve likely had some sort of plans in place, if they could acquire him.

Toumani Camara is a nice flyer, especially for a team that is now fully rebuilding. Camara stuffed the stat sheet for Dayton as a senior and then put together a really nice Summer League showing too. The Blazers aren’t overflowing with forward talent, so adding a 6-foot-8 guy that can do a little bit of everything is a nice extra piece in this trade.

Before we get to the final incoming pieces to Portland, it’s fair to note that the Blazers got off of $54.4 in salary owed to Jusuf Nurkic in this deal. Nurkic had aged out of the team’s timeline, and his health issues made keeping him around even less appealing. Getting off of that contract is helpful, even if it possibly lessened the return.

The other two players, Nassir Little and Keon Johnson, are kind of caught up in the salary-matching swirl here. Little is a good player, but his role was going to be lessened with where Portland is heading. Johnson had a few flashes, but he was never going to crack the Blazers stacked guard group.

And now we get to the draft compensation. It feels a little light, considering this is Damian Lillard. One first-round pick and two swaps is probably less than the Blazers and Joe Cronin were thinking when this whole ordeal began. But swaps are the kind of things that are meaningless until they aren’t. And a pick that won’t deliver until six years from now could be anything. Maybe the Bucks implode and this all falls apart. Maybe they are incredibly successful and everyone retires happy. Those are picks and swaps with upside for Portland, given that they are several years and contract cycles away.

For now, Portland did well in this trade. The team trading away a superstar often comes up short in their return. If/when the Trail Blazers flip Jrue Holiday for additional players/picks, they’ll have done really well. We’ll re-evaluate when that happens.

Projected Starting 5: Jrue Holiday, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton

Related: Trail Blazers 2023-24 Salary Cap Table

Phoenix Suns

Incoming Salary ($34.85M in 2023-24)

Outgoing Salary ($33.5M in 2023-24)

The Suns inclusion in this deal at first seems a little odd. Deandre Ayton seemed a good fit for what Frank Vogel hoped to build defensively. But the Suns seem to want to lean more into more of a sure thing offensively, while breaking Ayton’s contract into smaller, more tradable pieces.

On the former, Jusuf Nurkic should be that for Phoenix. He’s a terrific screener, a pretty good passer and he’s got a better outside shot than Ayton. He’ll rebound on the defensive boards at roughly the same rate as Ayton did. But Nurkic doesn’t have the defensive potential Ayton did, even if Ayton’s is largely unrealized.

Nurkic is also a pretty good bet to miss some time with injuries. Ayton had been pretty reliable over the past five years, while Nurkic has played 153 games total over the last four seasons. That’s at least a little worrisome for a team with title aspirations.

As for the latter, Grayson Allen and Nassir Little were nice depth gets for the Suns in this deal. Allen gives them another guard option. That’s important in case any of Bradley Beal, Devin Booker or Eric Gordon has a reoccurrence of the injuries that have plagued them in recent years.

Little gives Phoenix another athletic forward option. He might not beat out Keita Bates-Diop or Yuta Watanabe for minutes, but Little is a nice option to have around. And if that 37% three-point shooting is real, then Little becomes a really nice option to have off the bench.

The real value Allen and Little may have to Phoenix is that they are very easily movable players in a future deal. They make a combined $15.2 million, which could get the Suns a player down the line. That’s a lot easier to make happen than a trade that had to include Ayton’s $32.5 million salary for any sort of meaningful return.

Phoenix is currently at 17 players on standard NBA deals, which is two over the NBA’s regular season maximum. Ishmail Wainright is probably one of the cuts coming, as his contract is non-guaranteed. Jordan Goodwin is on a partially guaranteed deal, but he’s sticking around. That means the Suns will most likely have to eat a fully guaranteed contract on their books. But, hey, in for a penny, in for a pound, right?

Are the Suns really better after this deal? That’s hard to say. Nurkic is an offensive upgrade over Ayton, but how much more offense do you need when you have Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal? We’ll say Phoenix is better, but probably not appreciably so. At least not until they do whatever is coming next, which seems likely to happen at some point.

Projected Starting 5: Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Jusuf Nurkic

Related: Suns 2023-24 Salary Cap Table

Miami Heat

We aren’t going to spend a lot of time here, because the Heat ended up not being a part of a deal for Damian Lillard. In the rare case where a superstar wasn’t able to name his destination, Miami was on the short end of the stick.

The Heat roster felt unfinished in hopes of a Lillard trade. Now, Miami has to pick up some of the pieces. They still have a lot of talent, but lost two key starters in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. Josh Richardson was a nice addition, but that’s if he was your second- or third-best pickup, not your key signing.

All of that said, someone will emerge for Miami and have us all asking “How do they keep doing this?” Last year’s first-round pick Nikola Jovic appears poised for a bigger role too. The Heat will still end up being good, because that’s just sort of what they do.

Projected Starting 5: Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, Bam Adebayo

Related: Heat 2023-24 Salary Cap Table 

Toronto Raptors

We’ll spend even less time here, because we only know that Toronto was engaged on trading for Damian Lillard. We have no real sense of how close anything really got. But that’s sort of the point.

We’ve all been waiting for the Raptors to do something big for a few years now. And they just kind of keep staying the same. Except in recent years, they’ve bled talent from a roster that was once one of the deepest in the NBA. Now, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are on expiring deals (Anunoby has a player option he’s likely to decline) and Toronto’s future seems no less certain than it was before.

A Lillard trade would have been a risky homerun swing, but Masai Ujiri won that way when he traded for Kawhi Leonard. It seems like Toronto is set up to take a similar cut again, but they seem content to move the runners along, playing station-to-station ball. That can win in the NBA, but it often results in a team that’s just kind of stuck in the middle. And that’s where the Raptors currently find themselves.

Projected Starting 5: Denis Schroder, O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, Jakob Poeltl

Related: Raptors 2023-24 Salary Cap Table

Keith SmithSeptember 27, 2023

The NBA preseason is right around the corner. Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Southeast Division teams.

Dallas Mavericks

Who are the non-Luka and non-Kyrie starters? 

Dallas has their two superstars locked into starting positions with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The other three spots seem to be at least somewhat up for grabs. The good news? The Mavs have lots of options.

The one we’re most confident in is Grant Williams grabbing the starting power forward spot. Dallas can use his defense in the opening lineup, and his spot-up game and passing ability are nice fits on offense. Maxi Kleber is a good player, but the team has generally preferred him in a bench role.

At center, it seems like Dwight Powell will get the first crack. He’s an excellent screener, solid defender and he knows how to play with Luka Doncic. Those are all important things. But Dallas has some other options to at least take a look at. Richaun Holmes seems poised for a career rejuvenation. Dereck Lively II is oozing with potential, but he probably needs a year or so of seasoning. And the Mavericks have done well with Kleber playing some small-ball five too.

On the wing is where things get really interesting. Tim Hardaway Jr. is the long-time veteran option. He’s had that QB-WR connection with Doncic where the Mavs star can just trust Hardaway will be there when he throws a pass. But Hardaway doesn’t bring a lot defensively, and he trended more toward being a three-point specialist than ever last season. The latter is probably fine, but the former is a worry.

Josh Green is ready for a bigger role. He’s the best perimeter defender the Mavericks have. And Green put up 54/40 shooting splits last season. The guess is that even if he doesn’t start to open the season, Green will snag that starting wing spot by Christmas.

Other players like Seth Curry, Derrick Jones Jr., Jaden Hardy and rookie Olivier-Maxence Prosper will probably all factor in at some point too. But the guess is the Mavs will ultimately settle on Doncic, Irving, Green, Williams and Powell as their regular starting group.

Related: What is the wing rotation? 

As stated above, we know Josh Green and Tim Hardaway Jr. are going to factor in heavily in the Mavericks wing rotation. Seth Curry will see plenty of off-ball minutes as a designated shooter too. But Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are both going to play somewhere in the range of 36-38 minutes too. That doesn’t leave a lot of extra playing time. Who snags it?

Jaden Hardy is going to be hard to keep off the floor. He really started to show some stuff as his rookie season went along. Dallas likes his creation ability. If he can cut down on his turnovers and improve defensively, he may eventually surpass Hardaway in the rotation.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper is going to factor in here as well. He’s NBA-ready as a defender, but the shot needs work. Eventually, Prosper will see rotation minutes, but they may take a little bit to come his way.

Houston Rockets

Who is the backup point guard? 

The Rockets busy summer established a pretty clear pecking order for a team that was previously made up of a lot of young guys fighting for roles. Things are much cleaner now, minus backup point guard.

That spot would have likely been Kevin Porter Jr.’s, but that’s clearly no longer the case. With Houston being legitimately at least two-deep at every other spot, Ime Udoka has to figure out the backup point guard spot.

The guess here is that Houston would like Amen Thompson to grab that role. His size, defense and passing fits really well with both Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet in a three-guard rotation. Thompson needs to shoot it better, but the Rockets can be patient while his shot develops.

If Thompson doesn’t prove ready out of the gate, veteran journeyman Aaron Holiday can handle the initial backup minutes. The only other option is two-way player Trevor Hudgins. That means it’s really on Thompson to claim that role for his own.

It’s not just the in-game backup minutes where this matters. VanVleet is a good bet to miss at least a handful of games. If Udoka can comfortably plug Thompson in as a starter, or can increase his minutes as a backup, on those nights, that’s a win for the Rockets.

Will Cam Whitmore get minutes? 

Cam Whitmore had a shocking fall at the 2023 NBA Draft. He was projected as a high lottery pick and ended up falling to Houston with the 20th pick. Health concerns, along with some vague attitude worries, were cited as the reasons Whitmore fell.

At Summer League, the 6-foot-7 forward seemingly took any lingering draft frustrations out on his opponents. Whitmore looked terrific on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty clear already that his draft misfortune was a massive stroke of good luck for the Rockets.

But earning regular season minutes is a different thing entirely. Jabari Smith and Dillon Brooks project as the starting forwards. Tari Eason, Jae’Sean Tate and veteran addition Jeff Green will all open camp ahead of Whitmore in the rotation too. But Ime Udoka is going to have to find some minutes somewhere for Whitmore. He’s too good to sit for too long. Look for Whitmore to force the issue, in a good way, sooner rather than later.

Memphis Grizzlies

Who starts while Ja Morant is out? 

Ja Morant will miss roughly the first third of the season for the Grizzlies. That’s rough, but Memphis has had success without Morant in the past. Marcus Smart is more than capable of handling the point guard role while Morant is out. The real question is who replaces Dillon Brooks to open the season?

Yes, the Grizzlies had tired of Brooks antics and were ready to move on. And, yes, Smart is probably the long-term answer as to who replaces Brooks on the wing. But the team has to get through two months of the season before that can happen.

Two seasons ago, it looked like Ziaire Williams was going to be the long-term answer at small forward. Williams really settled in midway through his rookie year, and looked like the future was bright. Unfortunately, Williams’ sophomore season was a lost one, as he struggled with injuries and never really got healthy. He could re-grab that starting spot with a strong preseason.

Another option is Luke Kennard, if Memphis wants some additional shooting and playmaking in the opening group. The Grizzlies have more than enough defense to cover for Kennard, and he’d help open up the floor for Desmond Bane, who projects as the primary on-ball creator with Morant out.

For other options, John Konchar is a favorite of the coaching staff. David Roddy and Jake LaRavia could be second-year breakout guys. Mostly, Memphis has a bunch of options, even if none are perfect. This could be a spot where Taylor Jenkins does some experimenting with various players while Morant is out.

Related: What is the wing rotation? 

As covered above, Dillon Brooks is out. But Memphis has one wing spot covered with Desmond Bane. He’s somehow still underrated, even after getting essentially a max extension this past summer.

The lead guard depth is good with Ja Morant, Marcus Smart and Derrick Rose all in the fold. The frontcourt depth is solid enough, even with Brandon Clarke likely out for most, if not all, of the season. Look for Santi Aldama to continue to build on what was a really good second season.

That second wing spot is still a question mark. Eventually, Smart will probably slide off-ball and will take on the role Brooks held down for years. But the Grizzlies need more. It’s all of the same options we covered for the fifth starter spot. But two or three of them will need to emerge as reliable wing contributors, and it’s a guess right now as to who that will be.

New Orleans Pelicans

How does the wing rotation shake out? 

New Orleans has a lot of talent, but how that talent all fits together is still a question due to them rarely being healthy over the past few seasons. Nowhere are those questions bigger with the wing group.

Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas will start in the frontcourt, with Larry Nance Jr. in reserve. C.J. McCollum is the primary lead guard, with Jose Alvarado and, maybe, Kira Lewis Jr. behind him, along with some on-ball minutes for Dyson Daniels too.

The wing group has talent, but who gets those minutes and in what combinations? Brandon Ingram and Herb Jones will start. Ingram is probably the team’s best all-around player (pending your confidence and belief in Williamson) and Jones is an all-world defender. Behind them, there are a lot more questions.

Had Trey Murphy III been healthy, he would have made the starter question a really interesting one. That’s because he’s ready to start, as he did for most of last season. But that would have pushed someone to the bench. The guess here is that would have been Jones, but maybe Murphy would have played big minutes as a reserve 2-4? As it stands, Murphy’s role and impact on others won’t be known for several weeks, as he recovers from a knee injury.

Naji Marshall is next up, but Daniels will factor in too. Marshall is a known quantity at this point. He’ll play defense, run the floor for buckets and give the Pelicans 20-25 solid minutes a night.

Daniels is still a mystery box. Is he really an on-ball playmaker? Is he a defense-first wing? Will the jumper ever come around? Daniels has a ton of potential, but it’s all still so theoretical. And for a team trying to win, opportunities to hand out “figure it out” minutes are getting fewer and fewer.

Lastly, rookies Jordan Hawkins and E.J. Liddell are going to be players to monitor. Liddell missed all of last season, but he looked really solid at Summer League. Right now, he’s a small four, but if he can get the jumper working, Liddell could be in the wing mix. Hawkins is a scoring guard. He doesn’t have tremendous size, but he’s big enough to play the two. If he’s making shots, Hawkins could push his way into early-season minutes while Murphy is out.

Is backup center an issue? 

Jonas Valanciunas has been remarkably durable, but he’s also 31 years old now and his minutes dropped off to 25 per game last season. If that’s where Valanciunas is now, the Pelicans need a reliable option behind him.

Larry Nance Jr. can soak up some backup minutes at the five, but will he hold up all season long? Playing Zion Williamson as a small-ball five has been done in spurts, but there are questions there too. That seems like a very low-usage thing, if we see much of it at all.

The Pelicans signed Cody Zeller in free agency, following the vet’s late-season career rebirth with the Miami Heat. If Zeller can give the Pelicans 10-15 minutes a night in the regular season, it would keep the wear and tear off Nance. Once the playoffs roll around, if Zeller is productive, he can stick. If not, New Orleans can shrink the rotation and go smaller behind Valanciunas.

San Antonio Spurs

Who is the fifth starter? 

We can safely plug in the following four players as starters for the Spurs most nights: Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Zach Collins and Tre Jones. The first two are the team’s best building blocks. Collins is going to start at the five, because San Antonio wants to keep Wembanyama at the four. And Jones is the best (only?) pure point guard on the roster.

The easiest answer for the fifth starter is Keldon Johnson. He’s been a starter for the last three seasons, and Johnson has improved each year he’s been in the NBA. He’ll probably get the first crack at starting, and he should. Johnson is good.

But Jeremy Sochan is coming. As a rookie, Sochan started 53 of the 56 games he played. His season was up-and-down due to injuries, but the potential is very evident. He’s probably the best big perimeter defender that San Antonio has. Sochan is also a better-than-you-think passer, good rebounder and he’s a tricky scorer. If the jumper was better, he’d probably overtake Johnson right now.

Maybe, and who knows what Gregg Popovich will surprise us with, someone else emerges as a starter. The team remains high on Malaki Branham and starting someone like Julian Champagnie just feels like a Pop move. Starting Reggie Bullock would give the team a veteran shooter, as would Doug McDermott. There are a lot of options here, and that will make it a fun competition to monitor throughout the year.

Who gets cut? 

As it stands as of this writing, the Spurs are plus-two in terms of their regular season roster. They have 17 fully guaranteed standard contracts and the regular season maximum is 15 players on standard deals.

Khem Birch seems likely to go, as San Antonio has Zach Collins, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Charles Bassey, and whatever minutes Victor Wembanyama gets in the pivot, at center. Birch was more or less a throw-in to make the Jakob Poeltl trade work, so he’s probably one of the cuts.

The other one isn’t so cut and dry. Maybe it’s a competition between Reggie Bullock and Cedi Osman, where one stays and one goes. The team has nothing invested in either player, as both were acquired as part of salary-dumping trades this past summer.

If the Spurs feel they’ve seen what they need from Charles Bassey, and they want more wing options, he could be let go. Devonte’ Graham would be a surprise, but he’s not exactly entrenched as a part of the future in San Antonio either. Some have even suggested it could be a surprise like Doug McDermott, but that doesn’t seem as likely.

There’s also a chance the Spurs hold everyone and see if a need develops elsewhere for a trade opportunity. That could involve Birch, Bullock, Osman, Graham or McDermott as an outgoing veteran.

 

Keith SmithSeptember 25, 2023

The NBA preseason is right around the corner. Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so.

Atlanta Hawks

Who replaces John Collins in the starting lineup? 

It seems like Atlanta prepared for this eventuality when they acquired Saddiq Bey at last season’s trade deadline. Bey started in seven of the 25 games he played for the Hawks after being acquired. Bey put together his most efficient play of his career by far in those 25 games. He shot 47% overall, including 40% on five three-point attempts per game.

Bey and De’Andre Hunter aren’t really the classic forward combo, as both are more of a three than a four. But in the modern, switchable NBA, the Hawks should be fine starting these two together. One minor note: Bey and Hunter played 198 minutes together over 20 regular season games. Atlanta was -13 in those minutes. Not exactly a big enough sample size to worry about, but something to keep an eye on.

If Bey doesn’t start, Atlanta’s other options seem to be Bogdan Bogdanovic or Jalen Johnson. The former is unlikely, as Atlanta would be very small with Bogdanovic starting. He’s also a terrific sixth man, and the team can control his minutes (and wear and tear) easier in a bench role.

Johnson took a pretty big leap in his second year. He became semi-regular in the Hawks rotation and he looks poised for a bigger role this season. Johnson will probably play a lot, but when paired with Hunter last season, the Hawks were a whopping -63 in only 138 minutes over 36 games. For whatever reason, that forward grouping didn’t work.

Bet on Bey getting the first crack here, but Quin Snyder has some room to experiment with small-ball lineups. And Johnson is going to see plenty of run too.

Is it time to transition to Onyeka Okongwu as the starting center? 

Clint Capela has started in all but three of the 202 games he’s played with the Hawks over the last three years. He also remains really productive, as one of the NBA’s few nightly double-double guys. But Onyeka Okongwu is knocking on the door of being the starting five.

Capela will probably keep his starting job for this season, but this is getting close to flipping. Assuming Okongwu is extended or re-signed next summer, he’ll be Atlanta’s long-term five. And Capela only has two seasons left on his deal. Last note: In the six-game series against the Boston Celtics, the Hawks were better with Okongwu on the floor than Capela. That seems to be a precursor to where this is heading.

Charlotte Hornets

How does the wing/forward rotation shake out? 

It seems pretty clear that Steve Clifford will start LaMelo Ball at point guard and likely Mark Williams at center. After that, everything is at least somewhat of a question. The Hornets have more talent available than last season, but that creates a lot of questions.

Last year, P.J. Washington, Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier III started every game they played. The simple answer could be that those three all return to the starting group, and the returning Miles Bridges and rookie Brandon Miller come off the bench. And that could be the answer to start the season.

Bridges has to serve the final 10 games of his 30-game suspension to start the year. And Miller may be in a spot where the team eases him into the NBA by playing him off the bench. But eventually, Bridges will be back and Miller will need to start. That’s when it gets interesting.

There’s at least a decent chance Hayward will be hurt by the time either of those happens, given his injury history. That could free up a starting spot. The Hornets don’t exactly have great point guard depth, so Rozier could also transition into a high-minute reserve role too. But those are two high-priced veteran players, so that could be a little messy. A bit less-so with Hayward, as he’s in the final year of his contract.

It’s not a bad problem to have, particularly after a lost season where a lot of non-NBA guys saw minutes. But Clifford and the front office have to have a plan for making sure everyone sees the minutes they need, especially Miller.

Who wins the third two-way spot? 

Charlotte seems to be waging a four-way competition for their third two-way spot. Keep an eye on Angelo Allegri, a rookie out of Eastern Washington. He’s the best shooter of the bunch and he showed some increased playmaking ability in his senior year. He’d give a little bit of a different look from Amari Bailey and Leaky Black, who have the Hornets other two-way spots.

Miami Heat

Without Damian Lillard: Does Kyle Lowry start? 

Kyle Lowry officially lost his starting spot to Gabe Vincent after his month-long absence in February into March last season. But he had already ceded a lot of playing time to Vincent before that. Was that some foreshadowing that Lowry’s days as a starting lead guard are over?

Vincent is now gone, but is it as easy as just plugging Lowry back into the starting five? Tyler Herro is capable of taking on increased playmaking reps, and a lot of the offense runs through Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo anyway. Josh Richardson is also back in Miami, and some of his best play came when he ran the offense for the Heat.

Maybe Lowry gets the veteran treatment and starts, but the Heat still have options. Starting Richardson, or an extra shooter in Duncan Robinson, could help juice either end of the floor. Nikola Jovic is also going to get rotation minutes at some point, and there could be a domino effect of players sliding down a position when that happens.

With Damian Lillard: What is the rotation? 

We can’t even really begin to do a projection here, because we have no idea who will still be on the Heat roster if they make a trade for Damian Lillard. We can safely say that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will be there. Offseason signings/re-signings like Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant, Kevin Love and Orlando Robinson will all be around too. But that leaves a lot of rotation holes to fill. And the free agent market is just about dried up.

We’re really just presenting this question to note that the early part of the season could be a little rocky for Miami. Not only would they be incorporating a high-usage star in Lillard, which is always an adjustment, but it’s happening without much time to prepare. Remember, it took the Big Three Heat about a month to settle in and to find their groove. It’ll happen for this group too, but probably after a bumpy start.

Orlando Magic

Where do they find minutes for Anthony Black and Jett Howard? 

The Magic drafted the two rookies with the sixth and 11th picks in the 2023 NBA Draft. That’s a sign that the team is high on both players, but that might be a long-term thing. Right now, it’s hard to see how Black or Howard crack the rotation.

Orlando has a deep guard group with Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs as the presumed starters, and Cole Anthony and Gary Harris as the first backcourt players off the bench. Black comes in as an on-ball playmaker, so he’s got to work through that crowd.

Howard is a wing, which means he’s not only battling against Suggs and Harris for off-guard minutes, but also Franz Wagner (entrenched as a building block on the wing), veteran addition Joe Ingles and returners like Caleb Houstan and Chuma Okeke. Howard should be ahead of the last two, but playing over the first two seems like a bit of a stretch.

This isn’t really a problem. Orlando can make both players earn minutes, as opposed to being gifted them because of draft status. The bet here is that Black’s defense (and probably some injuries in the guard rotation) gets him on the floor first. But eventually, Howard’s shooting ability should see him get some run for a Magic team light on that particular skill.

Who wins the third two-way spot? 

The Magic have three players with NBA experience coming to camp and all three could snag the third two-way spot. Mac McClung will be the fan favorite, as his exciting style of play will have fans wanting more. The 2023 Dunk Contest champion would also help with the G League Magic’s debut in Osceola County this season.

Trevelin Queen has the best size of the three camp players. He’s been a dominant scorer in the G League, which would be a nice mix with defense-first players Kevon Harris and Admiral Schofield on the other two two-way spots.

Brandon Williams has the most NBA experience, as he started 16 games for the Portland Trail Blazers at the end of the 2022 season. He’s a little undersized, but Williams can score and is a developing playmaker.

Washington Wizards

Who is the backup center and how does that impact roster cuts? 

Washington is in the midst of a full-scale rebuild. All of the offseason movement has left the Wizards a little thin up front. We’re assuming Daniel Gafford reclaims the starting center spot. Gafford wasn’t bad last season, but Kristaps Porzingis was better and playing the two together was messy. So, count on Gafford being a bigger part of things this season.

Behind him, Washington has to figure things out. Mike Muscala was acquired in the Porzingis trade, but he’s not a lock to make the roster. The Wizards have to cut at least two players with fully guaranteed contracts, and Muscala isn’t likely a part of what they’re building.

That leaves backup center options to players like Taj Gibson (who was recently re-signed for his 15th NBA season), Xavier Cooks and…yeah. Because of that, Muscala could stick and Washington could clear the roster in another way.

Muscala would be a nice contrast to Gafford. He’s mostly a spot-up shooter, where Gafford exclusively works in the paint. Gibson is fine, because you know he’ll defend and rebound for about 10 minutes per game. Cooks is the most intriguing, if undersized option.

Cooks only played 10 NBA games after his late-season signing, but his numbers from the past four seasons in Australia are really encouraging. He plays bigger than his 6-foot-8 frame. Cooks is a rugged rebounder and can block some shots. He’s also a good passer, especially if he’s playing out of the high post area. The jumper is inconsistent, but Cooks will take a couple per game. Playing Cooks would be the non-conventional option, but why not experiment when you’re rebuilding?

How does the wing rotation shake out? 

For a rebuilding team, the Wizards have a lot of those “Hey! I like him!” players. And a lot of those guys are perimeter players. We can safely assume the Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole are firmly in the starting five. Who joins them and who else plays real minutes are the real questions.

Deni Avdija started most of last season, and he’s the best defensive wing the Wizards have. Unfortunately, his jumper has never come around. More worrisome? Avdija has taken fewer jumpers from year to year too. 54% of his shots came from in/around the paint, while 40% where from behind the arc. That’s not a terrible shot mix, but that 40% mix of three-pointers is down from 45% the previous season and 54% in Avdija’s rookie season. The mid-range shot numbers have also had a downward trend. That’s an abandonment of the jumper that can’t happen for a player with Avdija’s size/skill mix.

Corey Kispert is the opposite. He’s not a terrible defender, but not in Avdija’s league really either. Offensively, Kispert has tended toward becoming a three-point specialist. 62% of his shots were three-pointers as a rookie. That nudged up to 66% from deep as a sophomore. That’s not bad, because Kispert knocked down 42% of his triples last season. He’ll play, but how much and with who will be worth monitoring.

Landry Shamet is basically Kispert, but with less invested by Washington. They got him as collateral in the trading this summer. He might play, but he’s not going to be given real minutes over players with a future in Washington.

That brings us to Bilal Coulibaly. He’s going to play, because he’s oozing with potential and the Wizards traded up to draft him. If he knocks down shots, Coulibaly will eventually steal even more playing time from Avdija. And his defensive potential is the best on the roster too.

Last note: Keep an eye on Patrick Baldwin Jr. There’s a lot of talent there. He saw minimal NBA time as a rookie, but he did hit 38% from deep on limited attempts. Baldwin also flashed some skill in 20 G League games. He only turns 21 in mid-November, so there’s lots of room for growth. Don’t give up on him yet, even if his road to playing time is just as messy in Washington as it was with the Warriors.

 

Keith SmithSeptember 18, 2023

Last week we published the Best Deals of the 2023 NBA Offseason. In an effort to be balanced (and maybe to prove that the author doesn’t actually “love every deal”!), we’re presenting the Worst Deals of the 2023 Offseason.

But there’s a pretty major caveat with this one: It’s getting really hard to put together “worst deals” lists. NBA teams have simply gotten smarter about signing good contracts. The new CBA may have even more of an impact, as identifying and signing midrange contracts will become more important than ever.

All of that said, this list includes some of the more…let’s say curious…decisions that were made this past summer. Not even all of these were signings. That’s how thin the list of truly bad deals is. Presented in no particular order, the Worst Deals of the 2023 Offseason.

Dillon Brooks – Houston Rockets

Contract: four-years, $86 million

Dillon Brooks tenure with the Memphis Grizzlies ended in ignominy. He ran his mouth until it ran him out of town, with the Grizzlies front office saying there was no way he’d be returning. That saw some suggest that Brooks would be lucky to sign for anywhere from the MLE to the minimum, to some even suggesting he should start learning Chinese.

All of that hyperbole proved to be just that. Brooks landed one of the bigger deals for a player who changed teams this summer. And that contract just kept growing from the initial four-years, $80 million report to the final four-years, $90 million reports. Instead, the contract settled right in the middle at $86 million, with some incentives baked in.

Was Dillon Brooks overpaid by the Houston Rockets? Yes. Is the contract an egregious, cap-clogging calamity? No. Not even close, really.

Based on his defensive ability alone, Brooks was going to get an MLE deal. He’s an All-Defense guy. To suggest less than the MLE was foolishness of the highest order. And, while he’s an inefficient gunner at his worst, he’s not a terrible offensive player. Brooks should settle in as the fourth or fifth offensive option for the Rockets most nights. In games where guys are out, Brooks can, and will, score more. It might not be pretty, but he can do it.

Mostly, this contract was the kind that Houston had to hand out, if they are serious about moving the rebuild forward. Brooks, along with Fred VanVleet and others, will help a very young team grow up. He’ll also inject some confidence in a group where that wavered at times. That’s part of the culture Ime Udoka is attempting to build. But the contract was still an overpay, even if not the tremendous mistake many have painted it out to be.

Jerami Grant – Portland Trail Blazers

Contract: five-years, $160 million

Jerami Grant re-signing with the Portland Trail Blazers needs a whole lot of context. When reports of Grant’s deal came out, the initial response was “Well, hopefully that helps the Blazers keep Damian Lillard.” When reports came out shortly thereafter that Lillard asked for a trade, the responses were “Dame took one look at Grant’s contract and asked out!”

Grant re-signing and Lillard’s situation are probably fairly independent, but there’s at least a couple of strings tying them together. It’s doubtful that Grant re-signing caused Lillard to ask for a trade. That’s not usually how it works. It’s not as if Portland was signaling that they chose Grant over Lillard in any way.

On the flip side, re-signing Grant was likely something the Trail Blazers were ok with, without any dependency on what Lillard chose. But…the Blazers probably hoped that bringing back a key vet would entice Lillard to stick around.

So, where does that leave us? Well, Lillard hasn’t been traded, and there are no signs that Joe Cronin is budging off the massive return he wants for his star guard. And Grant is still signed to a deal that averages $32 million a year.

 Let’s start there. That’s really not a bad value for Grant at all. He’s miscast when he’s a team’s primary offensive engine. When he’s the second, or even better, third option, he’s actually really good. If Grant can cede the offensive lift to younger options like Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe or Anfernee Simons, he’ll be an efficient player for the Blazers.

What makes this one of the worst deals is that the Portland is going to trade Damian Lillard. Whether it happens before this season starts, in-season or next summer, it’s going to happen. At that point, the Trail Blazers are rebuilding. And, like we saw with the Detroit Pistons, you don’t need Jerami Grant leading the rebuild at north of $30 million per season. Circumstances matter, and they turned on Portland in a pretty rough way with this re-signing.

Bradley Beal – Phoenix Suns

Contract: four-years, $208 million remaining

This one wasn’t a signing, as you very likely know. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a curious trade acquisition, given the fit, injury history and money owed for Bradley Beal.

The Phoenix Suns had one shot to cash in on a Chris Paul trade. They did it this summer, but they could have waited and taken it into the season. Nothing in Paul’s situation was likely to change all that much. Even if he’s still productive, he was seen a contractual means to an end, as much as an on-court plus. At least, that’s how the Washington Wizards saw it. Washington acquired Paul as much to shed Beal’s contract, as they did to then flip Paul in the subsequent Jordan Poole trade with the Golden State Warriors.

Back to the Suns…what is the plan here? Phoenix doesn’t have an established point guard on the roster. Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are all plus-passers for their positions, but none have truly led an offense as the primary plate-setter. Maybe Beal can do it. Maybe Booker will do it. But someone has to. They can’t all maintain their score-first nature.

And then you have Beal’s lengthy injury history and the $208 million he’s owed over the next four years. No contract is untradable, we’ve long-since learned that lesson, but this one is rough, and will only get rougher as the years go along. Phoenix is locked into this group now. For better or worse, for at least the next year or two, this is what it is. Maybe it goes spectacularly well, and the Suns win that long-awaited title. But there are just as many multiverses where this all falls apart and Phoenix is stuck fixing a messy cap sheet for years.

Reggie Jackson – Denver Nuggets

Contract: two-years, $10 million

Is $5 million a year for Reggie Jackson going to break the Denver Nuggets? Absolutely not. It just feels unnecessary, and like Denver let a potential signing tool go to waste. Especially with a player option on the second season.

Jackson has the look and feel of a veteran minimum player at this point in his career. That’s fine. Almost everyone ends up there at some point. Conversely, the Nuggets are capped out and dancing around the second tax apron. Their only real signing tool this summer was the $5 million Taxpayer MLE. Why give it to Jackson?

At best, Jackson will be the regular backup point guard and will allow Denver to spot Jamal Murray rest in games, if not entire games off, when he needs it. At worst, Jackson will be at the end of the bench, not playing, while other value signings around the league are getting run for good teams.

We’ll take this opportunity to caveat something: It’s entirely likely that Denver gave Jackson this contract with the idea of him being a piece of salary-matching in a trade. Jackson waived his ability to block a trade (he has an implied no-trade clause, because he’s effectively on a one-year deal with Early Bird rights after), so that potential stumbling block is removed. Because the Nuggets have managed to stay about $4.7 million clear of the second tax apron, they have enough wiggle room to add some salary in trade without tripping any of the harsher penalties that hit super tax teams. If that’s the case, bravo to Calvin Booth and the Nuggets front office. Until then, this just looks like an overpay and the loss of a potentially valuable signing exception.

Kristaps Porzingis – Boston Celtics

Contract: three-years, $96 million

When the Boston Celtics acquired Kristaps Porzingis at the start of the offseason, reports came quickly after that they would sign him to an extension. And they sure did, at the price of $60 million tacked onto the $36 million Porzingis was already owed.

If, and it’s a massive if, Porzingis can stay healthy AND if, another big if, he fits well next to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, this deal is fine. Porzingis was awesome last season. He was terrific on offense and turned in the best defensive season of his career. He also stayed mostly healthy, as his missed games at the end of the season were more about Washington’s ping pong balls than Porzingis’ health.

But…he’s already hurt. Porzingis had to bow out of the FIBA World Cup due to plantar fasciitis. That’s not a great way to start his tenure with the Celtics, and it’s something that could linger. And the fit questions will be there until we see it work. And it needs to work in the playoffs, not just the regular season. Boston is well past regular season wins being a meaningful barometer of success.

Add it up, and $60 million for an already expensive, and only getting more expensive by the year, team was quite the risky commitment. And, as many have pointed it out, why not see how it all worked first? This extension would have been there all the way until the end of June.

Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls

Contract: three-years, $60 million

This one isn’t about the contract, as much as it’s about the direction of the franchise. Nikola Vucevic is worth $20 million a season. That’s true no matter how much you bring up his defense. He’s durable, he rebounds and he’s very good on offense. That’s a $20 million player all day.

But where exactly are the Chicago Bulls going? Does this extension lift them by having Vucevic locked in? The answers are “Who knows?” and “Not really.”

And that’s why you don’t sign good-but-not-great players to extensions like this. If Vucevic was the final piece to a team on the verge of title contention, extend away. But this team looks like it could break up fairly soon. Maybe even as soon as this season. Then what? It’s all just needlessly messy.

Last thing: Why not frontload this extension for Vucevic? The Bulls could have given him the same $60 million, but had it decline year-to-year. That way as Vucevic ages, his salary is more commensurate with his ability and, crucially, his tradability. That was a major miss that has to factor in here, as well.

No Offer Sheets – San Antonio Spurs

Contract: None

Fine, this is cheating, but sometimes the worst things are missed opportunities. That was the case with the San Antonio Spurs this offseason.

The Spurs had over $30 million in cap space this summer. They used that $30 million to come away with exactly zero long-term rotation players. And they didn’t even acquire great assets by renting out their cap space either. A couple of vets may stick for this season, but the chances of them being a part of the next great Spurs team are very, very small.

It’s fair to point out that the free agent class wasn’t a great one. Inevitably, someone will say “Did you want San Antonio to do what Houston did?” And that’s a reasonable question. But the Spurs weren’t under the same pressure to add win-now pieces, which is where the strategy differs.

And that strategy mostly falls at the feet of not making any of the incumbent teams sweat with a restricted free agent offer sheet. The most-talked-about example was with Austin Reaves. San Antonio could have forced the Los Angeles Lakers to match a nearly $100 million offer sheet, and to take on the wonky cap hits that would have come with matching. But the Spurs left Reaves dangling for too long, and he eventually re-sign with the Lakers.

They also stayed away from Herb Jones, who in fairness likely had a prearranged deal with the New Orleans Pelicans when they declined their team option. Cam Johnson could have made some sense. Grant Williams and P.J. Washington certainly made sense. Even Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White could have made sense for point guard-thin Spurs.

Mostly, this was a chance for San Antonio to do that second big thing, after drafting Victor Wembanyama. Instead, they just punted on it to act as a clearinghouse for cap- and tax-strapped teams, without coming away with any choice assets for doing so.

Rui Hachimura – Los Angeles Lakers

Contract: three-years, $51 million

Rui Hachimura was a revelation for the Los Angels Lakers after they acquired him in January. The regular season saw him do fine, but Hachimura really took off in the playoffs. He was one of the Lakers most consistent scorers during their run to the Western Conference Finals.

It wasn’t a surprise that the Lakers wanted to re-sign Hachimura. What was surprising was giving him $51 million fully guaranteed over three seasons. Who exactly was Los Angeles bidding against? Maybe another team would have given Hachimura the Non-Taxpayer MLE, but even that seems a stretch, given how that exception was utilized around the league this summer.

To be fair, Hachimura isn’t grossly overpaid. He’s still very tradable at an AAV of $17 million. But for a team that is locking into a good amount of long-term money, every dollar matters. And the Lakers added several million more dollars here than they needed to.

Donte DiVincenzo – New York Knicks

Contract: four-years, $47 million

This is another deal where the value is fine, but the fit is a little weird. Roughly $12 million AAV for DiVincenzo is fine. He’s a good player, and he’ll hold less-than-MLE value throughout the life of this contract. But where’s he going to play?

The Knicks backcourt currently features returning starters Jalen Brunson and Quentin Grimes. Immanuel Quickley is one of the best sixth men in the NBA. RJ Barrett starts at the three, but he might be best as a big two. Josh Hart can play the two, even if he’s kind of the pseudo backup four for New York.

That’s five quality guys who at least sort of overlap with DiVincenzo positionally. Oh, and Evan Fournier is still around too, even if he’s just a contract for the Knicks at this point. Suffice it to say, that’s a lot of guys.

The Knicks never really filled Obi Toppin’s spot as the backup power forward. As we’ve talked about before, that’s only about a 10-minute per game role behind Julius Randle, and Hart probably fills it. But if Randle goes down with an injury, there isn’t a real backup four on the roster. New York could have spent some of the money they gave DiVincenzo to fill that hole instead.

Now, if DiVincenzo is cover in case things go sideways with extension discussions with Quickley, that’s one thing. But that would bring up a whole other set of problems for New York that we don’t really need to get into right now, and hopefully won’t ever need to, for the Knicks sake.

Russell Westbrook – LA Clippers

Contract: two-years, $8 million

Russell Westbrook played really well for the LA Clippers down the stretch of last season. He shot it better than anytime since his prime OKC days, and he did everything else you want too. His efficiency dropped in the playoffs, but by the end of the first-round series with the Phoenix Suns, Westbrook was kind of all the Clippers had going for them.

Re-signing Westbrook was fine and a bit of a no-brainer. He earned a new deal, and the Clippers had no other established point guard options. But why did LA have to do a two-year deal for more than the minimum? This deal only pays Westbrook slightly more than a veteran minimum deal would have, but that means it comes without any of the NBA subsidy that allows for lessened tax hit.

On top of that, the 26-game sample of Westbrook with the Clippers was really good, but it was just 26 games. Is that repeatable for a team with title aspirations? Was it worth giving Westbrook two years AND a player option?

Lastly, LA didn’t get Westbrook to waive the de facto no-trade clause that comes with this deal. That means they’ll need his permission to trade him. And that sort of removes the benefit of upping Westbrook’s contract value in the first place. It probably won’t matter, but this was messier than need be.

 

Keith SmithSeptember 15, 2023

The NBA offseason is just about over. In approximately two weeks teams will report to training camp. Preseason games are only three weeks or so away from tipping off. Yes, we’re still waiting to see if Damian Lillard and/or James Harden see their wishes fulfilled and they are traded. Just in case you spent the last couple of months off the grid or something.

With that in mind, we’re going to look back at the best contracts signed during the 2023 offseason. We’ll also have a companion piece for the worst deals of the 2023 offseason. Spoiler alert: It’s getting harder and harder to put together a worst deals list. Teams simply aren’t inking as many head-scratching contracts anymore.

These contracts are presented in no particular order. They are simply the ten best contracts of the summer, with a couple of smuggles (shout out to House of R on The Ringer!) factored in.

Desmond Bane – Memphis Grizzlies

Contract: five-years, $197 million rookie scale extension

Technically, Desmond Bane didn’t get a maximum extension from the Memphis Grizzlies. His first-year salary is set to come in just under the max. But Memphis used the new CBA and the ability to give Bane a five-year, non-max deal. In previous CBAs, non-max extensions were limited to four seasons.

Bane is terrific and only getting better. Of Memphis’ big three of him, Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., Bane is the most reliable player. Morant has off-court issues he has to figure out and Jackson has been injury-prone. Bane is also a very good on- and off-ball player on offense, a rugged defender and a burgeoning playmaker. A max deal would have been fine. Getting him for less than the max is a huge win for the Grizzlies.

Cameron Johnson – Brooklyn Nets

Contract: four-years, $94.5 million

Cam Johnson was putting together a breakout season when he got hurt with the Phoenix Suns in early-November. He was traded to the Brooklyn Nets after a handful games following his return from injury. With Brooklyn, Johnson really took off.

Johnson has always been a solid spot-up shooter, but he’s shown more off-the-dribble game over the past two seasons. With the Nets, he ticked his free throw attempts up to 3.5 per game. That’s a sign he’s creating more offense for himself. In addition, there are about $14 million in unlikely incentives in Johnson’s deal. The Nets also structured it to decline over the next two seasons, which will give the team some increased cap flexibility.

Kyrie Irving – Dallas Mavericks

Contract: three-years, $120 million

This one might surprise you, as your intrepid author here has been an outspoken critic of Irving’s over the years. But fair is fair, and this is a really solid contract. The Dallas Mavericks didn’t give Kyrie Irving the max in terms of dollars or years. For a player of his caliber, that’s a massive win.

Irving has had a lot of issues, both with injuries and off-court decisions, that have caused him to miss games. Dallas is more or less protected here if that happens again. The deal is short enough, and under the max salary-wise, that the Mavs can trade him fairly easily.

If we stick to on-court production, Irving remains an excellent player. He’s an annual 50/40/90 threat, and fills up the scoring column with ease. The defensive fit alongside Luka Doncic is messy, but that’s something for Jason Kidd and the front office to figure out by putting the right guys around the stars. Irving will deliver scoring and playmaking in droves…for however long he’s on the court.

Seth Curry – Dallas Mavericks

Contract: two-years, $8 million

Let’s stay in Dallas for a minute… What happened here? The Dallas Mavericks stole Seth Curry in free agency. This is barely above a veteran minimum deal. Complete larceny by the Mavs.

Sure, Curry is 33 years old and he’s had some injury challenges over the last few years, but he’s one of the best shooters in the league. You know what you want around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving? Shooting. OK…3&D guys ideally, but if you have to pick one way, grabbing an elite shooter never hurts. Since he became an NBA rotation regular in 2015-16, Curry has never shot 40% from behind the arc. A straight up theft for Dallas at $4 million per season. And the second year isn’t even fully guaranteed!

Austin Reaves – Los Angeles Lakers and Herb Jones – New Orleans Pelicans

Contract: four-years, $54 million

Our first smuggle! (Again, shouts to House of R and The RIngerverse for being outstanding fandom/genre shows!)

Austin Reaves and Herb Jones signed matching deals, with one minor exception. Reaves got a player option on his fourth season, while Jones is on a straight four-year deal. But both are tremendous values for what they bring their respective teams.

Reaves earned the player option by proving himself in the postseason. As rookie, there were signs that Reaves was going to be a good rotation player, but the Lakers were terrible. That meant it was all hand-waved away with “good stats, bad team” and “late-season success means nothing” claims. But as a sophomore, Reaves broke out. He’s equally as good on- or off-ball. He can make plays for others, while also creating his own offense. In the playoffs, Reaves proved capable of lifting his play. Getting him for an average salary just above the Non-Taxpayer MLE, is a ridiculous value.

Jones is already one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, if not the best. He’s the NBA version of a shutdown corner that the Pelicans can deploy on the opponent’s best offensive player and feel good about. Jones has added a little bit more to his offensive game too. He’s showing improved passing acumen, along with being a sneaky offensive rebounder. If the shot can nudge up to the mid- to high-30% range, then Jones will make considerably more on his next contract. For now, he’s a great value simply because of his defensive skills.

Max Strus – Cleveland Cavaliers

four-years, $62 million (after sign-and-trade from Miami)

The Cleveland Cavaliers fell short for a couple of reasons in the first round of the 2023 playoffs. They got bullied on the boards, but the Cavs also couldn’t make three-pointers. Enter Max Strus.

Over the past few years, Strus has become one of the preeminent movement shooters in the NBA. There may be no better player in the league at running hard into a pass, catching, turning and shooting all in one motion. The Miami Heat had great success with running Strus on baseline and wing sets where he’d sprint into his shots and get square from ridiculous angle. He’s not a great defender, but Strus holds his own. Mostly, his shooting should help open up the floor for Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland on drives, and for Evan Mobley to work from the mid-post area. For roughly $15.5 million a season, that’s well worth it for Cleveland.

Orlando Robinson – Miami Heat

Contract: two-years, minimum

The rules are pretty loose when you do a “best and worst contracts” series, but one general rule is to skip over minimum deals. Unless they provide tremendous value, either in immediacy or upside. Orlando Robinson returning to the Miami Heat on a two-year, minimum deal represents the latter for sure, and possibly the former.

We have to do a heavy dose of projecting here, but let’s get a little reckless! Robinson has a total of 47 professional games on his ledger, 31 in the NBA and 16 in the G League. The NBA games show us a snippet of a guy who could be a high-end rebounder and finisher, with some defensive potential. The G League games expand on that, while also adding a glimpse of some outside shooting potential. Combine that with some encouraging college production and some really encouraging Summer League production and, whew boy, do we have a player!

And, lest we forget, we need to factor in the Heat of it all. How many players need to come through their G League, two-way, end-of-roster spots before we just buy in from the start? Grab your Robinson stock now and thank us later.

Gabe Vincent – Los Angeles Lakers

Contract: three-years, $33 million

Hey! Look at that! Another Miami Heat success story! (That’s how you do a transition, my friends!)

Gabe Vincent, like Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin and we’re betting Orlando Robinson, was a find by Miami. With the Heat looking in a northwesterly direction for the future of their point guard position, Vincent slipped off to the Los Angeles Lakers for less than the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

After flashing in his first meaningful minutes in 2020-21, Vincent stepped up in his third season in 2021-22. Last year, he took the starting point guard spot from Kyle Lowry. Yes, even before Lowry started missing time midseason. Nothing jumps off the page for Vincent stat-wise, but you have to watch him play to get the full picture. He can create his own shot; he’s a solid on-ball defender and we’re betting there’s more playmaking ability in there too. $11 million per season is a terrific value for a high-minute backup guard, and there’s a good chance he’ll start plenty too.

Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez – Milwaukee Bucks

Middleton Contract: three-years, $95 million

Lopez Contract: two-years, $48 million

Another smuggle! These two are hard to pull apart, but there’s really no reason to either. Both Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez were strongly rumored to be considering deals that would have seen them leave the Milwaukee Bucks. That usually results in a situation where their team has to overpay them to stay. Didn’t happen here for either player.

Middleton took considerably less than he could have gotten as a free agent. Heck, he took less in first-year salary than his player option was worth for next season. Yes, age and injuries are starting to become concerns. But when he’s on the court, Middleton is Milwaukee’s second-best offensive weapon. He’s good as a spot-up guy, and he’s good off the bounce. He also excels at secondary creation. His defense has slipped a bit, but he can still hold his own against the vast majority of wings. That’s all worth a deal that averages about $33 million or so.

Lopez has been awesome since signing with Milwaukee. He’s been a top-tier rim protector and his offensive game fits perfectly with the other Bucks. Maybe last year was one final contract push, but we’ll bet that Lopez continues to give Milwaukee high-end starting center production. For $25 million and then $23 million, that’s a bargain.

Oh, and because this is reportedly a thing now, these are the kind of re-signings it might take to convince Giannis Antetokounmpo to stick around in Milwaukee for a while longer.

Jevon Carter – Chicago Bulls

Contract: three years, $19.5 million

We’re generally used to the Chicago Bulls showing up on the other side of “best and worst” contract lists. And they’ll feature in the companion piece, to be sure. But signing Jevon Carter to this contract was one of the steals of the summer.

There’s no reason Carter should have bounced around as much as he has. He had a solid rookie season with the Memphis Grizzlies, two good years with the Phoenix Suns, and then was productive for both the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks. Carter is arguably one of the best on-ball pests in the NBA. He doesn’t do some of the flashy stuff that others do, but he’s just always there. A consistent nuisance, akin to that just-quick-enough-to-avoid-getting-swatted mosquito at the July barbecue.

In addition to his defense, Carter has become a very good shooter. He’s a bit better on spot-up shots, but he’s pretty dangerous off-the-dribble too. That’s a nice mix of skills to have, considering he’ll play a lot with DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine. For $6.5 million a year, or roughly half of the Non-Taxpayer MLE, that’s a great value for the Bulls.

 

Keith SmithSeptember 07, 2023

NBA training camps open in about a month. Yet, we’re still waiting to see when (if?) Damian Lillard or James Harden gets traded. One situation has been curiously quiet, while the other has been contentiously loud. But both Lillard and Harden remain in Portland and Philadelphia, respectively.

While the Trail Blazers and 76ers wait out superstar trades, everyone else is filling out training camp rosters at this point. That means it’s time to reset where each roster stands. We’re going to look at who is returning, who was acquired and who has departed. We’ll also answer a few key questions about each team.

We covered the Atlantic Division, Central Division, Southeast Division, Pacific Division and Southwest Division already. Next up: The Northwest Division!

Denver Nuggets

Players Returning (12)

Christian Braun, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Vlatko Cancar, Collin Gillespie (two-way), Aaron Gordon, Reggie Jackson, Nikola Jokic, DeAndre Jordan, Jaman Murray, Zeke Nnaji, Michael Porter Jr., Peyton Watson

Players Added (6)

 Justin Holiday, Jay Huff (two-way), Braxton Key (two-way), Jalen Picket, Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson

Players Lost (5)

Bruce Brown, Thomas Bryant, Jeff Green, Ish Smith, Jack White (two-way)

Roster Openings

None.

Cap/Tax Status

Denver is $4.7 million under the second tax apron.

Spending Power Remaining

The Nuggets only have minimum contracts available to offer free agents.

Biggest Move of the Summer

The champs are mostly running it back. They lost a couple of key rotation players, but are ready to elevate younger players into their positions. There were no major free agent or trade additions. In fact, the Nuggets added only one established NBA player on a standard contract, and Justin Holiday isn’t a lock to play rotation minutes.

That leaves the biggest moves as some draft maneuvering to add three players that Denver hopes will eventually take on rotation roles. Julian Strawther is probably the closest to NBA-ready, but he’s in a bit of a crowded wing mix. Jalen Picket could snag a backup guard spot in a somewhat thin backcourt. Hunter Tyson will probably have a developmental season, including lots of time spent in the G League.

Work To Do

The Nuggets roster is complete for the start of the season. Now, it’s about Michael Malone figuring out his rotation. Christian Braun will presumably pick up some more minutes in place of Bruce Brown. Veteran Justin Holiday will battle with rookie Julian Strawther and Jalen Picket, along with second-year player Peyton Watson, for perimeter minutes.

Up front, the situation is even more interesting. Jeff Green was the primary backup big for Denver when it mattered most. The most likely replacement for Green is Zeke Nnaji, who has come and gone from Malone’s rotation the last few seasons. Vlatko Cancar looked poised for a bigger role, but he tore his ACL over the summer and will likely miss the entire season. DeAndre Jordan is back too, but relying on him at this point is pretty questionable. This is a spot where the Denver could look to upgrade in-season.

Lastly, Jamal Murray is extension-eligible. He’s got two years left on his deal, and he’s showing signs of breaking through as an All-Star. If Murray thinks he can reach All-NBA at any point in the next two seasons, he might hold off and wait to see if he can really cash in on a Designated Veteran Extension. But he’s also had a serious knee injury, so the allure of locking in long-term money will be there too. Keep an eye on this one, as the rest of Denver’s core group is signed through 2025-26.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Players Returning (12)

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Kyle Anderson, Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Luka Garza (two-way), Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Jordan McLaughlin, Josh Minott, Wendell Moore Jr., Naz Reid, Karl-Anthony Towns

Players Added (4)

Troy Brown Jr., Jaylen Clark (two-way), Leonard Miller, Shake Milton

Players Lost (5)

Nathan Knight (two-way), Jaylen Nowell, Taurean Prince, Austin Rivers, Matt Ryan (two-way)

Roster Openings

1 standard roster spot and 1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Minnesota is roughly $2.4 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

The Timberwolves have $3.4 million remaining of the Non-Taxpayer MLE left, plus the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Signing Anthony Edwards to a five-year, maximum contract rookie scale extension. Edwards is rapidly becoming the Wolves franchise player. Karl-Anthony Towns probably still holds that title for now, but Edwards is really close to snatching that moniker. And deservedly so. Edwards is an offensive superstar, and has plenty of room to improve as a playmaker for others and as a defender. All the signs are there that he’ll continue to grow into his role as a superstar.

Minnesota also extended Naz Reid, which was an interesting move. On one hand, Minnesota got Reid on a very fair value of almost $14 million AAV for three years. That’s essentially MLE money, which Reid is well worth. On the other hand, the Timberwolves already have Towns and Rudy Gobert signed for a combined AAV of $90M over the next three seasons. That’s a lot of money locked up in three guys who are all best when playing center.

In free agency, the Wolves added Troy Brown Jr. and Shake Milton, and re-signed Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Those are all solid depth moves for the perimeter rotation behind Edwards and 16-year veteran Mike Conley.

Work To Do

Minnesota already has a whopping $151 million committed for 2024-25, with max extensions kicking in for Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns. But that shouldn’t keep Tim Connelly from extending Jaden McDaniels. We predicted a rookie scale extension of $100 million over four years for McDaniels ahead of the offseason. He should have made the All-Defense team last season, and McDaniels is a better-than-you-think offensive player. He’s an ideal running mate for Edwards and Towns long-term. The Wolves have a soaring payroll, but McDaniels should be extended.

Beyond that, Minnesota has a couple of roster spots to fill. They’ll sign at least one more player to a standard deal, which should allow them to squeak in under the luxury tax line for this season. And one more two-way player will be signed too. From there, it’s about trying to keep everyone healthy and getting off to a good start in a very important season for the franchise.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Players Returning (15)

Ousmane Dieng, Luguentz Dort, Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Joe, Tre Mann, Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Olivier Sarr (two-way), Lindy Waters III (two-way), Aaron Wiggins, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams

Players Added (6)

Davis Bertans, Keyontae Johnson (two-way), Vasilije Micic, Victor Oladipo, Cason Wallace, Jack White

Players Lost (2)

Jared Butler (two-way), Dario Saric

Roster Openings

None

Cap/Tax Status

Oklahoma City is $15.5 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

The Thunder have only minimum contracts to offer to free agents.

Biggest Move of the Summer

We’re going to cheat a little here and split this section three ways.

At the draft, the Thunder moved up to get Cason Wallace. This continues a trend of Sam Presti moving up in drafts to get a targeted player. The Oklahoma City guard group is pretty flush with talented players, but Wallace brings a defensive bulldog mentality to that group. And NBA teams have often done well when betting on guards out of Kentucky.

The Thunder also finally brought Vasilije Micic over from Europe. Again, the guard group is pretty stacked, so where Micic fits in will be interesting to monitor. But having him on a three-year deal gives OKC some time to figure it out.

The third biggest move isn’t really a move at all, but it involves another high-profile rookie joining the squad for games this season, as Chet Holmgren will debut this season. Yes, Holmgren is still a rookie, as he hasn’t appeared in an NBA game. You can argue that until you are a blue in the face, but the NBA says Holmgren is a rookie, as is anyone who hasn’t played in an NBA game.

Moving past that, Holmgren is obviously a huge addition to a team that doesn’t have nearly the talent up front as it does on the wing and in the backcourt. Holmgren should be a Day 1 starter and a terrific fit alongside all of the Thunder’s playmakers.

Work To Do

Oklahoma City is still plus-three in terms of players on the roster. They could cut ties with another veteran or two, or they might be forced to trade or waive some young players they like. The obvious waivers have already been made, now the decisions get a little harder.

Beyond that, it’s now up to Mark Daigneault to find minutes for the 12 or so players on this roster that need/deserve them. That’s among the best “problems” a coach can have heading into a new season.

Portland Trail Blazers

Players Returning (11)

Ibou Badji (two-way), John Butler Jr. (two-way), Jerami Grant, Keon Johnson, Damian Lillard, Nassir Little, Jusuf Nurkic, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons, Matisse Thybulle, Jabari Walker

Players Added (4)

Moses Brown, Scoot Henderson, Kris Murray, Rayan Rupert

Players Lost (6)

Drew Eubanks, Kevin Knox, Cameron Reddish, Trendon Watford, Justise Winslow

Roster Openings

2 standard spots and 1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Portland is about $3.3 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

The Trail Blazers have the full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE remaining, as well as the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Take your pick, but know whatever you choose, it’ll get blown off the board when (if?) Damian Lillard is traded.

Drafting Scoot Henderson is our choice, because that sets the franchise up for what’s next after Lillard. Henderson was considered by many to be the second-best player in the 2023 NBA Draft, and Portland got him with the third pick. Henderson has the look of a future star at point guard. The Trail Blazers can’t ask for me, given they are looking to trade the best player in franchise history, who happens to also be a point guard.

The Blazers biggest move in terms of salary was locking into a five-year, $160 million deal with Jerami Grant in free agency. Whether that move was made to entice Lillard to stay in Portland, or made because the team believes in Grant, it was made. In reality, $32 million AAV is well below Grant’s possible max salary. It’s also perfectly fair value for a guy who is very good, but on the outskirts of being an All-Star. Having Grant will also help a roster that skews extremely young, much like the role Grant played for the Detroit Pistons prior to being traded to the Trail Blazers.

Portland also matched an offer sheet that the Dallas Mavericks gave to Matisse Thybulle. That might seem curious for a team that is heading towards rebuilding, but that misses some important context. First, Thybulle’s deal has an AAV over about $11 million. That’s less than the MLE, and more than a fair value. Second, he’s by far the best defensive player the Blazers have. That matters for teaching a young group how to defend and win.

Work To Do

It’s obviously finding a trade for Lillard. We won’t be disingenuous and suggest that much else matters before training camp starts. Once that’s done, Joe Cronin and Chauncey Billups can sort through what the roster has become and start figuring out the path forward. Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons, Kris Murray, and re-signed vets Jerami Grant and Matisse Thybulle, is a pretty good start on a rebuild. Add to that group whatever comes back in return for Lillard and the Trail Blazers are on their way to a bright future.

Utah Jazz

Players Returning (12)

Ochai Agbaji, Jordan Clarkson, Kris Dunn, Simone Fontecchio, Talen Horton-Tucker, Johnny Juzang (two-way), Walker Kessler, Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, Micah Potter (two-way), Luka Samanic, Collin Sexton

Players Added (6)

John Collins, Keyonte George, Joey Hauser (two-way), Taylor Hendricks, Brice Sensabaugh, Omer Yurtseven

Players Lost (5)

Udoka Azubuike, Vernon Carey Jr., Rudy Gay, Damian Jones, Juan Toscano-Anderson

Roster Openings

None

Cap/Tax Status

The Jazz are $29.3 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

Utah has the full $7.7 million Room Exception remaining.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Acquiring John Collins in a salary-dump from the Atlanta Hawks. The Jazz did great to pick up Collins. He’s a very good player, who landed a big contract and then got caught in the swirl on a too-expensive Hawks roster. Utah had a lot of success playing big lineups with Lauri Markkanen at the three, and adding Collins will allow that to continue. He’ll also be a boon to the team’s rebounding, and Collins can slide over play some small-ball five when the Jazz want to go to a more-conventional lineup.

Renegotiating-and-extending Jordan Clarkson was a nice use of cap space for the Jazz. They were able to bump Clarkson’s salary for this season using some room they didn’t need to spend on an outside addition. That added salary sees Clarkson back for two additional seasons through 2025-26 at about $14 million per season. That’s really good work to retain a popular and productive player.

Utah also had an outstanding draft. Taylor Hendricks has all the physical attributes of being a big-time player. He’s got great size and is a very good athlete at the forward position. Playing time could be a bit hard to come by initially, but we’re betting Hendricks is too good to keep off the floor for very long.

Keyonte George looks like a potential steal as the 16th pick. You don’t want to get too excited about Summer League, but George was one of the best players on the court in both Las Vegas and Salt Lake City. He looked comfortable as a scorer and as a playmaker.

Brice Sensabaugh is a project wing. He can score, but needs to round out the rest of his game. He’ll likely log lots of developmental time in the G League this season, which is fine. He’s got good upside and just needs to play to realize it.

Lastly, keep an eye on the Omer Yurtseven addition. Utah has clearly done well developing bigs, and Yurtseven comes with some polish already on him from his time with the Miami Heat. He’s sneakily good on offense, but needs to rebound better and to hold up defensively to play. Well worth the slightly-above the minimum deal that the Jazz gave him.

Work To Do

This roster is finished. That gives Will Hardy and his staff some time to put it all together. The Jazz have a lot of versatility with this group. They can play those three-big lineups with Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler across the frontline, with Kelly Olynyk and Omer Yurtseven in reserve. They could go smaller and work Ochai Agbaji and Taylor Hendricks in on the wing. Simone Fontecchio had a “meh” rookie season, but has looked good for Italy at the World Cup. He might factor into the rotation in his second NBA season. The backcourt has solid depth with rookie Keyonte George joining holdovers Jordan Clarkson, Talen Horton-Tucker, Collin Sexton and Kris Dunn. Hardy will have to get creative to find enough minutes for everyone, but that’s fine.

On the contract front, Markkanen, Horton-Tucker and Olynyk are all extension-eligible. The Jazz look like they’ll have a decent amount of cap space in 2024, so they might hold off on extending Markkanen. Then next summer, Utah and Markkanen can do a renegotiation-and-extension to get him paid like the All-Star he’s become. Horton-Tucker and Olynyk are probably wait-and-see guys, who will probably reach free agency in July.

 

Keith SmithSeptember 01, 2023

Giannis Antetokounmpo made waves recently when he told The New York Times that he wouldn’t consider an extension with the Milwaukee Bucks until 2024, at the soonest. Antetokounmpo made it clear that he is prioritizing winning, as he moves into the second half of his career. The Bucks superstar wants to be sure that Milwaukee is committed to building a roster, and spending to do so, that can contend for titles.

Essentially, Antetokounmpo is exercising the superstar’s right of putting pressure on his team to keep pushing forward. Antetokounmpo even hinted that if Milwaukee starts talking about a rebuild, that he wants no part of that.

That means that we could be looking at a repeat of 2019 and 2020, when every team in the league was lining up to make a run at Antetokounmpo. Ultimately, he chose to stay with the only NBA home he’s known, and Antetokounmpo signed a Designated Veteran Extension.

The 6-foot-11 forward is now two seasons into that five-year extension he inked in the summer of 2020. Because the NBA was operating under an adjusted calendar due to COVID at the time, Antetokounmpo signed his extension in mid-December. That adjusted calendar, and the resulting carry-over impact, means Antetokounmpo isn’t eligible to sign a new extension with Milwaukee until September 22.

In order to understand what Antetokounmpo’s next contract might look like, we need to look at what he has left on his current deal. Here’s the three years remaining on that Designated Veteran Extension:

    • 2023-24: $45,640,084
    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (player option)

Because he still has either two or three years left on his deal, Antetokounmpo has a lot of options for how he can handle a new deal with the Bucks. That amount of time left and the player option in 2025-26 gives him the ability to approach extension talks in a number of different directions.

It’s also important to note that Giannis Antetokounmpo now has 10 years of service (How did that happen so quickly? Didn’t he just get to the NBA?). He’s eligible for the maximum amount possible, without any sort of Designated Player language being a factor.

Signing a Veteran Extension in 2023

On September 22 when he becomes extension-eligible, Giannis Antetokounmpo has two different options, if he wanted to extend this season. Yes, we know he said he wouldn’t do that, but we want to cover those options to paint a full picture.

Option 1 would see Antetokounmpo exercise his player option for the 2025-26 season and then add two new seasons onto his deal. That would look like this:

    • 2023-24: $45,640,084
    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (opted in)
    • 2026-27: $60,137,000
    • 2027-28: $64,947,960
    • Total: five years, $271,447,988
    • New salary: two years, $125,084,960

In this option, Antetokounmpo adds two new seasons and roughly $125 million on his deal. The first season of new money would hit in 2026-27 and is projected at a 35% of the cap maximum salary of $60,137,000. Antetokounmpo would add a second season of new salary at an 8% raise to $64,947,960.

Option 2 would see Antetokounmpo decline his player option for the 2025-25 season. He would then add three new seasons onto his deal. That would break down like this:

    • 2023-24: $45,640,084
    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $54,670,000
    • 2026-27: $59,043,600
    • 2027-28: $63,417,000
    • Total: five years, $271,558,560
    • New salary: three years, $177,130,800

In this option, Antetokounmpo adds three new seasons and roughly $177 million, starting at 35% of the cap in 2025-26 at $54.7 million. In total, he would make slightly more money in Option 2 vs Option 1.

Signing a Veteran Extension in 2024

This option is far more likely, if only because Giannis Antetokounmpo told us directly that he wouldn’t consider an extension until 2024. In this case, he again has two different options.

Option 1 sees Antetokounmpo pick up his player for 2025-26. He would then add three years in new salary to his deal. That ends up looking like this:

    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (opted in)
    • 2026-27: $60,137,000
    • 2027-28: $64,947,960
    • 2028-29: $69,758,920
    • Total: five years, $295,566,824
    • New salary: three years, $194,843,880

In this option, the Bucks star adds three years at almost $195 million. He then bumps his total five-year value to about $295.5 million.

Option 2 would see Antetokounmpo opt out for 2025-26. He would then add four years of new salary to the one year he would have remaining on his deal. That extension looks like this:

    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $54,670,000
    • 2026-27: $59,043,600
    • 2027-28: $63,417,000
    • 2028-29: $67,790,800
    • Total: five years, $293,709,276
    • New salary: four years, $244,921,600

This deal comes in slightly shy of the opt-in version. That’s because the cap is projected to go up 10% vs the 8% a player can get in a raise. So, while Antetokounmpo’s 2025-26 salary would be higher, his 2026-27 salary wouldn’t come in quite as high.

Signing a Veteran Extension in 2025

Giannis Antetokounmpo could take this into the final year of his contract. In that case, we’d see him opt in for the 2025-25. He could then add four years onto his deal. That would look like this:

    • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (opted in)
    • 2026-27: $60,137,000
    • 2027-28: $64,947,960
    • 2028-29: $69,758,920
    • 2029-30: $74,569,880
    • Total: five years, $321,349,028
    • New salary: four years, $269,413,760

This is the most lucrative option for Antetokounmpo in any extension. That’s because of the addition of a fourth year at roughly $74.5 million. That would push his total contract north of $320 million.

Signing with another team as a free agent in 2025

Let’s say the Bucks decide things have gotten too expensive, or that some of their players aren’t worth the big money they can command. In this scenario, Milwaukee starts talking about rebuilding, or at least resetting. And Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t having it. He’s ready to see what it’s like playing somewhere else. The max he could sign for with another team would be:

    • 2025-26: $54,670,000
    • 2026-27: $57,403,500
    • 2027-28: $60,137,000
    • 2028-29: $62,870,500
    • Total: four years, $235,081,000

This is a four-year, maximum salary, starting at the projected 35% of the cap max of $54.7 million with 5% raises. Comparing Year 1 through Year 4 salaries only, this option is about $11.8 million shy of what Antetokounmpo could get by extending with the Bucks outright in 2025 (after opting in).

Re-signing with the Bucks as a free agent in 2025

Let’s say Antetokounmpo plays things out for the next two seasons, opts out, but decides to re-up with Milwaukee in the summer of 2025. He’d be eligible for the largest contract in NBA history. It would look like this:

    • 2025-26: $54,670,000
    • 2026-27: $59,043,600
    • 2027-28: $63,417,200
    • 2028-29: $67,790,800
    • 2029-30: $72,164,400
    • Total: five years, $317,086,000

This contract dwarfs any of the other options. Antetokounmpo would get over $317 million in total money (and that’s off relatively conservative projections right now!). In Year 1 through Year 4 comparisons, Antetokounmpo would make nearly $10 million more by re-signing with the Bucks over leaving Milwaukee. And this is again, slightly less than extending after opting in would be. This is again because cap growth of 10% projects to outpace the maximum 8% raises.

Re-signing with the Bucks as a free agent in 2026

This is the final option we’re going to present, and it’s probably the biggest longshot on the board. Let’s say Giannis Antetokounmpo plays out his full current contract through 2025-26, and then re-signs with Milwaukee on a maximum deal. That contract would look like this:

    • 2026-27: $60,137,000
    • 2027-28: $64,947,960
    • 2028-29: $69,758,000
    • 2029-30: $74,569,880
    • 2030-31: $79,380,840
    • Total: five years, $348,794,600

That’s nearly $350 million in total money for Antetokounmpo on a five-year, max deal. It’s almost an unfathomable amount, but that’s the reality of where we’re headed with these contracts in the new cap environment. This is where we’ll remind everyone that the starting salary of $60,137,000 is still 35% of the cap. That figure doesn’t change. It’s just that the cap is projected to go up somewhere between 4% and 10% every season for the foreseeable future.

Summary

Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to land one of the richest contracts in NBA history, no matter when and where he signs. But there are some important things to note.

First, we covered seasons ranging from 2023-24 (this season) through 2030-31 (eights seasons from now). Here are Antetokounmpo’s ages and years of service in each of those seasons:

    • 2023-24: Age 29, Year 11
    • 2024-25: Age 30, Year 12
    • 2025-26: Age 31, Year 13
    • 2026-27: Age 32, Year 14
    • 2027-28: Age 33, Year 15
    • 2028-29: Age 34, Year 16
    • 2029-30: Age 35, Year 17
    • 2030-31: Age 36, Year 18

Second, Antetokounmpo has already played more than 26,000 minutes in his career. He’s had some relatively serious injuries in the first 10 years of his career too.

When we add those things together, combined with Antetokounmpo’s direct comments on extending, as well as looking at the money at stake, it starts to make a much clearer picture.

We can rule out Antetokounmpo extending when he’s eligible near the end of September. He’s already told us he won’t be doing that.

We probably safely rule out Antetokounmpo playing out the three remaining seasons on his contract and signing a new five-year deal in 2026 too. Given his age, career mileage and injury history, Antetokounmpo won’t leave that much to chance.

We also probably rule out simply playing out his deal with the Bucks, opting out in 2025 and then re-signing with Milwaukee as a free agent. That’s almost as risky as playing out the entire remainder of his deal, and the financial upside really isn’t all that great.

That leaves two real options. Antetokounmpo extends with Milwaukee in 2024. Or he plays out the two final guaranteed seasons on his contract and leaves the Bucks as a free agent in the summer of 2025.

The guess here is Milwaukee will do whatever is necessary over the next two seasons to convince their franchise player that he should stay in the only NBA home he’s ever known. The Bucks can still offer him the most possible money, either via extension or a re-signing. It’s up to them to make him want to stay in Milwaukee.

That leaves only a few real questions:

  1. Will Antetokounmpo opt in for 2025-26 and add three new years? Or will he opt out and add four new years? Bet on the first option, as he’ll likely make more money, and it gets hm back on the market for one more possibly big contract in 2029 heading into his age-35 and Year 17 season.
  2. Will Antetokounmpo take less years than the max he’s able to? He could look to game the system a bit, while also keeping pressure on the Bucks, by extending but adding a year or two fewer than he’s eligible to in an extension. That way he can get back on the market sooner, and potentially cash in even bigger by taking advantage of the year-over-year cap growth.
  3. What moves do the Bucks have to make over the next year to show Antetokounmpo they are serious about staying contenders? First is getting something done to keep Jrue Holiday in Milwaukee. After that, it’s probably being aggressive in trading role players and draft picks (when they are able) to upgrade with top-tier talent. That could leave the team thin depth-wise, but that’s not really the superstar’s problem to worry about. That’s for the front office to figure out, if they want to keep Antetokounmpo in the Good Land green and Cream City cream.

 

Keith SmithAugust 23, 2023

James Harden has asked for a trade from the Philadelphia 76ers. Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey has set a high asking-price for his All-Star guard. As of this writing in late-August, no trade has materialized.

The lack of a trade, plus maybe some other stuff, has seen Harden publicly call Morey a “liar”. Harden also said that he’ll “never be a part of an organization that Morey is a part of” again.

How did we get here? Where did it all go south? What are the ramifications of what’s happened? Where do Harden and the 76ers go from here? There are a lot of questions, and we hope we can provide some answers and insight.

The History

Ahead of the 2020-21 season, James Harden asked for a trade from the Houston Rockets. Harden correctly read the tea leaves and saw that Rockets were probably heading towards a reset, if not a full rebuild. He didn’t want to be a part of that and asked for a trade.

Harden initially showed up and played great for Houston. His first three games of that season saw him average 37 points and 11 assists per game. But that fell off quickly and in a major way. He played five more uninspiring games for the Rockets, expending precious little effort while doing so. In mid-January (the NBA was still working on an adjusted calendar due to COVID), he was traded to the Brooklyn Nets.

Harden’s happiness in Brooklyn lasted approximately a year. Whether driven by his desire to reunite with Daryl Morey in Philadelphia, or his own frustrations with injuries, or by the circus the Nets had become, Harden wanted out.

After sitting out a couple of games, Harden played twice more for Brooklyn. Harden’s Nets finale in Sacramento was maybe the most checked-out an NBA player has ever been while playing 37 minutes in a game. Harden barely went through the motions and never played for Brooklyn again before being traded ahead of the 2022 trade deadline.

Harden’s first half-season in Philadelphia went fairly well, even if he was clearly still hampered by a hamstring injury. In the 2022-23 season, Harden returned back to his All-Star form, even if he wasn’t named a 2023 All-Star. But it’s what happened in-between those seasons that seemingly caused this latest fracture between player and club.

In the 2022 offseason, Harden opted out of his $47.4 million player option for the 2022-23 season. As a free agent, Harden agreed to a two-year, $68.6 million deal. That two-year agreement included a player option for the 2023-24 season.

Part of the reason Harden willingly took a pay cut of over $14 million for 2022-23 was that it gave the 76ers the ability to sign P.J. Tucker, Danuel House Jr. and others, while staying under the tax line. In fact, the NBA found that this was lined up far enough in advance that they docked the Sixers two second-round picks for tampering with P.J. Tucker.

As far as Harden went, the assumption was that he’d play out last season for $33 million, opt out again and sign a max deal with Philadelphia in the summer of 2023. Not so fast, my friend.

As early as Christmas Day of 2022, reports came out that Harden wanted to return to the Rockets. Houston was lined up to have maximum cap space, and an unlikely reunion seemed to be on the table. Again, not so fast, my friend.

Harden didn’t opt out and re-sign with the Sixers. He didn’t opt out and sign with the Rockets either. We don’t know for certain, but it seems Harden got two pieces of information between the end of 2022 and free agency opening in July of 2023.

The first piece of info was that Philadelphia wasn’t going to give him a max deal. The second piece of info seems like it was that Houston was going in a different direction with their cap space. 

At that point, Harden again read the tea leaves and realized that to land in a destination of his liking, it would be easier to pull off via trade than free agency. So, Harden opted in and immediately requested a trade. And here we are.

James Harden’s Contract

James Harden is in the final year of the two-year deal he signed with the Philadelphia 76ers in the summer of 2021. His deal is fully guaranteed for $35,640,000. There are no incentives or trade bonuses in Harden’s deal.

Because the 76ers are currently sitting just over the tax apron, the most they could take back in trade is 110% of Harden’s salary in a deal, plus $250,000. For simplicity’s sake, that’s $39,454,000.

It’s also important to note that any team that trades Harden will not be able to extend his contract. Because he signed a two-year deal, Harden is not extension-eligible. If traded, he’ll play out this season and will be an unrestricted free agent in 2024.

The Overall Situation

Now that we understand the history and what James Harden’s contract is, where are we at exactly?

Harden is still a member of the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers have publicly said that they expect him to report for training camp in October. Harden has made it known that he has no intention of doing that, and that he still expects a trade.

The NBA hit Harden with a $100,000 fine (the maximum allowable for a single transgression) for “indicating that he would not perform the services called for under his player contract unless traded to another team”. The league could have hit Harden with a $150,000 fine, but that would have been for publicly asking for a trade. This lesser fine seemingly falls under the “conduct or statements prejudicial or detrimental to the best interests of basketball, the NBA, or a team” category, as opposed to the public trade demand one.

The NBPA intends to file a grievance on Harden’s behalf. Their argument is that Harden is being unfairly punished for calling Daryl Morey a “liar”, as opposed to saying he’ll withhold services. This was to be expected, as the NBPA has to protect their player and to make sure that the rest of their constituency isn’t punished for simply making comments the NBA finds objectionable.

As for Harden, he said his calling Morey a liar was related to Morey saying that he’d trade him “quickly” after Harden opted in. He has not referenced any kind of wink-wink agreement in reference to his free agency in 2022.

James Harden’s Situation

James Harden wants a trade and doesn’t want to play for the Philadelphia 76ers any longer. Or, at the very least, he doesn’t want to play for the Sixers while Daryl Morey is still running the front office.

To his credit, Harden has never openly called out where he wants to be traded to. Reporting is that Harden prefers a trade to the LA Clippers. That’s likely accurate, but Harden hasn’t agitated anything towards “Clippers or else!”, at least not publicly.

Beyond that, Harden kind of made his own bed, to at least some degree. He could have let his prior contract play out. He could have opted out of his current contract. Either way, he would have had full control over what was next. As it stands now, Harden can want to be elsewhere, but he’s beholden to the whims of Morey and 29 other teams and what they can negotiate in trade.

As far as Harden saying he won’t report to the Sixers goes, he’s playing a dangerous game. Under the CBA, any player who withholds services for 30 total days while in the final season of his contract, will be deemed to have not completed that contract.

In Harden’s case, if he stays away from the Sixers for at least 30 days, his contract will expire as scheduled on July 1, 2024. But Harden will not be able to sign with any professional basketball team without the permission of the 76ers. (Note: That’s any professional team. FIBA is generally fairly good about upholding contract rules of the various leagues they are partnered with. That makes it unlikely Harden would be approved to sign outside of the NBA.)

That makes the most likely situation, assuming Harden is still with Philadelphia at the start of training camp, also the most uncomfortable one. He’ll have to show up and do the bare minimum. We’ve seen what that looks like, and it benefits no one.

Finally, for those who say “Harden is in a contract year. He has to show up and play well, or no one will want him!” That’s complete nonsense. Teams know who Harden is at this point in his career. They also understand the situation. They’ve seen Harden play uninspiring basketball with both the Rockets and Nets in pre-trade situations. If he does it again, it’s not going to deter a team that wants him from making a trade.

The Philadelphia 76ers' Situation

Daryl Morey laid out some guidelines for making a James Harden trade. Morey said he needs to get a player or players that will keep his team a contender. Or the team needs to get enough draft picks that they can be turned into a player or players that will keep the Sixers a contender.

In addition to the above, Morey is prioritizing the Sixers keeping the cap flexibility that they are looking at for the 2024 offseason. Philadelphia is one of seven teams that project to have cap space in the summer of 2024.

To sum it up: Morey wants good players, or draft picks that he can flip for good players, and he doesn’t want to take on any salary into 2024-25.

Good luck.

Either of those ambitions are fine. The 76ers are a contender and should be trying to stay at that level. It’s also fine to want to have cap space next summer. Money to spend with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey in place? Every team in the league would sign up for that.

But, it’s not really that simple.

It’s hard to find players at Harden’s level that are also on expiring contracts, especially at this point in the offseason. Moving Harden in a package built around draft picks is also a difficult thing to swing. Again, it’s late-August. Most teams are fleshing out their rosters with training camp invites, not trying to pull off blockbuster trades.

Also, let’s spend a little time talking about preserving cap space for 2024. It’s been massively overstated how much cap space the 76ers can get to.

As it stands today, the NBA projects the salary cap to land at $142 million for the 2024-25 season. That’s a very modest 4.4% increase from this season. Even if the league is being very conservative, let’s run with that $142 million projection for now.

This is what Philadelphia has on the books for the 2024-25 season:

  • Joel Embiid - $51,415,938
  • Filip Petrusev - $1,891,857 (non-guaranteed)
  • Paul Reed - $7,723,000 (non-guaranteed unless team makes second round of 2024 playoffs)
  • Jaden Springer - $4,018,363 (4th year rookie scale team option)
  • P.J. Tucker - $11,539,000 (player option)
  • 2024 First Round Pick (projected at #25): $2,739,360

The 76ers can also have a host of cap holds for free agents, but in order to have cap space, they’ll need to renounce most of those players. These are the two free agent cap holds that Philadelphia is most likely to carry into the 2024 offseason:

  • Tyrese Maxey - $13,031,760 (restricted free agent coming off rookie scale deal)
  • De’Anthony Melton - $15,200,000 (unrestricted free agent coming off less than average salary)

Our projection for the 76ers cap space for 2024 is $32,961,798. We don’t project trades, so here’s what is included in that projection:

  • Embiid
  • Reed
  • Tucker
  • 2024 First Round Pick
  • Maxey cap hold
  • Melton cap hold

For reference, $32.9 million in cap space is less than the 0-6 Years of Service maximum salary, which projects to be $35.5 million (25% of the cap).

Now, let’s play a bit…

Let’s say Morey can get off everything but Embiid’s salary and Maxey’s cap hold. And, to be honest, that isn’t all that far-fetched of a scenario. That would give the 76ers $65,237,062 in cap space against a cap of $142 million.

For reference, a 7-9 Years of Service maximum salary for 2024-25 projects to be $42.6 million (30% of the cap). A 10-plus Years of Service maximum salary projects to be $49.7 million (35% of the cap).

So, we’re definitely in range of a maximum signing at 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap. And there would even be enough left over to sign another player or two, plus the $8 million room exception. But that’s still well shy of the double max salary space that has been touted in the basketball-sphere in recent weeks.

Let’s play a bit more…

Let’s say the Sixers wipe everything off the books except for Embiid and Maxey AND the cap goes up the maximum of 10%. That’s kind of the dream scenario for Morey and Philadelphia. In that situation, the cap would be $149.6 million for 2024-25.

If that happens, then the Sixers would be looking at about $70-72 million or so in cap space. Better than $65 million, and certainly better than $33 million. But that also involves a lot of “if this and this and this and this” happening to get there.

In an attempt to simplify this a bit: The Philadelphia 76ers have good cap flexibility, but they aren’t landing two max free agents in the summer of 2024. That would take some salary cap gymnastics that are simply too unrealistic to really consider. A single max free agent to add to Embiid and Maxey, as well as some leftover spending power, that’s a far more realistic scenario. And it’s not really a bad one!

Summary

This is a mess. It has been for a while, and will continue to be one, especially as the ugliness seems to be amping up. James Harden seems unlikely to back down, and has reportedly threatened to make things “uncomfortable” if he’s not traded.

Daryl Morey is going to find it hard to achieve all of his stated goals in making a Harden deal. It’s just not realistic to expect to find contention-level players, who are also on expiring contracts.

The NBA itself is in an increasingly tricky spot. If Harden continues to push that he was promised things that haven’t come to fruition, the league is going to have to investigate just how far things went in the summer of 2022. If there is proof that there were wink-wink and under-the-table agreements, the league will hammer Philadelphia with massive penalties.

When the Minnesota Timberwolves and Joe Smith had shady dealings, the NBA came down hard. The Wolves lost five first-round picks (two of them were later returned), were hit with a $3.5 million fine and then owner Glen Taylor was suspended for a year. It’s fair to expect Adam Silver and the league office would hit the 76ers with similar consequences.

To be fair, there’s no indication that’s going to happen. So far, Harden has held firm that his “liar” comments were about Morey not trading him quickly after opting in. But the longer this situation drags on, the uglier it could get.

As with all trade negotiations, the parties involved often set unrealistic terms early on. No one wants to give up everything in the first conservation. As time goes along, one side comes up down from their ask, while the other comes up with their offer, and the deal gets done.

In this situation, we have a pretty clear deadline about a month or so from now, with training camp on the horizon. Harden doesn’t want to be in Philadelphia, and says he won’t be. The 76ers aren’t going to want an awkward media day and opening to the new season. NFL executive-turned-analyst Andrew Brandt is fond of saying “Deadlines spur action” and that applies here.

Morey will come down in his asking price, perhaps because the idea of maximizing cap space is a somewhat futile one. He’ll come away with a collection of good players, along with retaining a good amount of cap flexibility. Harden will land elsewhere (probably with the Clippers, because players generally get their way), and we’ll move on.

If that’s not the way this plays out, it’s going to become an ugly staring contest for no good reason. And that’s going to have spillover to the rest of the roster. The rumor mill is already churning regarding Joel Embiid. If this gets to a point where Embiid is agitated enough to want a change of scenery, it’ll be a failure of epic proportions.

We aren’t there yet, and probably won’t get there. But avoiding that has to be part of the equation. That’s why it behooves Philadelphia to get a deal done and to move onto whatever is next.

Keith SmithAugust 21, 2023

The NBA offseason is fully into the dog days of August. We’re still waiting to see when (if?) Damian Lillard or James Harden gets traded. One situation has been curiously quiet, while the other has been contentiously loud. But both Lillard and Harden remain in Portland and Philadelphia, respectively.

But everyone else is filling out training camp rosters at this point. That means it’s time to reset where each roster stands. We’re going to look at who is returning, who was acquired and who has departed. We’ll also answer a few key questions about each team.

We covered the Atlantic Division, Central Division, Pacific Division and Southwest Division already. Next up: The Southeast Division!

Atlanta Hawks

Players Returning (11)

Saddiq Bey, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela, Bruno Fernando, A.J. Griffin Jr., De’Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson, Garrison Mathews, Dejounte Murray, Onyeka Okongwu, Trae Young

Players Added (6)

Kobe Bufkin, Mouhamed Gueye, Seth Lundy (two-way), Wesley Matthews, Patty Mills, Miles Norris (two-way)

Players Lost (5)

John Collins, Trent Forrest (two-way), Aaron Holiday, Tyrese Martin, Donovan Williams (two-way)

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Atlanta is $9.7 million under the luxury tax line.

Spending Power Remaining

The Hawks have the full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE left, plus the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception. Atlanta also has the NBA’s largest TPE at $23 million from the John Collins trade.

Biggest Move of the Summer

We’re going to give this one a tie. One move involved a player moving on and one move involved retaining a player.

Atlanta finally traded John Collins, following years of speculation that they would do so. In the end, Collins was salary-dumped to Utah Jazz. Atlanta created necessary room under the tax line, and also freed up some frontcourt playing time. No one who can replace Collins is nearly as accomplished as he is, but they are all significantly cheaper. And for an expensive team that’s achieved average results, something had to give for the Hawks.

On the retention side, Atlanta agreed to a four-year, $114 million extension with Dejounte Murray. That’s far less than the max Murray was eligible for, but a good example of the new extension rules in the CBA getting a deal done. For better or worse, Atlanta is now committed to a backcourt of Murray and Trae Young, and Quin Snyder has to find a way to make it work.

Work To Do

The Hawks roster is basically finished. They have a two-way spot to fill. Atlanta waived Vit Krejci recently, which got them down to 15 players on standard spots.

With the roster complete, Quin Snyder can spend camp implementing his systems, while figuring out his rotation. Collins and his 30 minutes per game need to be replaced. The guess here is that some combination of Saddiq Bey, Jalen Johnson and maybe some small-ball lineups will be the way the Hawks do it. Keep an eye on Johnson. He started to come on late in his second season and seems ready to make a leap this year.

Charlotte Hornets

Players Returning (11)

LaMelo Ball, James Bouknight, Gordon Hayward, Kai Jones, Cody Martin, Bryce McGowens, Nick Richards, Terry Rozier III, Kobi Simmons, J.T. Thor, Mark Williams

Players Added (6)

Amari Bailey (two-way), Leaky Black (two-way), Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller, Frank Ntilikina, Nick Smith Jr.

Players Lost (6)

Theo Maledon (two-way), Svi Mykhailiuk, Kelly Oubre Jr., Xavier Sneed (two-way), P.J. Washington

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Charlotte is about $46.7 million under the luxury tax

Spending Power Remaining

The Hornets have the full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE left, plus the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Signing LaMelo Ball to a five-year, maximum contract rookie scale extension. Ball is Charlotte’s most important player and they got him to sign a five-year extension to stick around long-term. That’s huge for building out this roster and what the Hornets hope to be.

Behind extending Ball is drafting Brandon Miller. Charlotte chose Miller instead of Scoot Henderson, who most thought was the second-best player in the draft. But Miller is a better positional fit for the Hornets, and he’s got a ton of talent himself. If Miller can develop into a running mate for Ball, Charlotte will have two important positions covered for years.

Miles Bridges will be back this season, after he signed his qualifying offer. When he last played in 2021-22, Bridges looked like he was on the verge of being an All-Star. An ugly domestic violence incident kept Bridges out all of last season, and he’ll serve a 10-game suspension to open next season. (Bridges was given a 30-game total suspension, but deemed to have served 20 games when he did not play last season.) Bridges has an opportunity to show he’s an improving and better person, to go along with his basketball talent. But he has a lot of work to do to prove himself again.

Off the court, Michael Jordan sold the Hornets to a group led by Gabe Plotkin and Rick Schnall. This ends Jordan’s up-and-mostly-down reign running the Charlotte franchise. It’ll take some time before we can judge what sort of owners Plotkin and Schnall will be.

Work To Do

Charlotte only has a two-way spot left to fill, but they aren’t done with their roster yet. P.J. Washington remains a restricted free agent. Washington reportedly wants a contract that averages $20 million per season. That’s pretty far away from where the Hornets have been.

That means we’re in range of Washington signing the qualifying offer, a la Miles Bridges, and playing out the year before unrestricted free agency in 2024. The other option is to find a sign-and-trade for Washington. That’s occasionally happened late in the offseason, with Lauri Markkanen joining the Cleveland Cavaliers from the Chicago Bulls as a recent example.

If Washington is back, that makes a somewhat crowded frontcourt even more so, especially after Bridges returns. Washington, Bridges, Gordon Hayward and rookie Brandon Miller will all need plenty of minutes and one or two of them will have to go to the bench. That’s a potentially combustible situation, with Bridges, Hayward and Washington playing for their next deals and Miller needing run as a rookie.

Miami Heat

Players Returning (11)

Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Jamal Cain (two-way), Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith, Nikola Jovic, Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Orlando Robinson

Players Added (5)

Jamaree Bouyea (two-way), Thomas Bryant, Jaime, Jaquez Jr., Josh Richardson, Dru Smith (two-way)

Players Lost (6)

Udonis Haslem, Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Omer Yurtseven, Cody Zeller

Roster Openings

2 standard spots.

Cap/Tax Status

Miami is $1.8 million below the second tax apron.

Spending Power Remaining

The Heat have the full $5 million Taxpayer MLE remaining. However, Miami doesn’t have enough clearance under the second apron to use more than $1.8 million of it. And using the Taxpayer MLE would hard cap the Heat at the second apron. That makes the Taxpayer MLE unlikely to be used for the time being.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Signing Josh Richardson…we guess? We all know the story here. Miami is trying to figure out a way to collect the necessary assets to trade for Damian Lillard. That pursuit has more or less put the rest of the Heat’s offseason on pause. Until Miami trades for Lillard, or moves on from trading for him, their offseason has an air of incompleteness around it.

That said, signing Richardson at the veteran minimum was a great pickup. He’ll play a big role for Miami and returns to the team where he had the best years of his career. His ability to play on- or off-ball, and as a starter or a reserve, is also helpful for a roster that is still being molded.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. just feels like a Heat player. He could add some nice depth as a rangy forward who can do a little bit of everything.

Thomas Bryant is a nice rehab project for Miami. He was pretty good for the Washington Wizards a few years back before tearing his ACL. The Heat have a history of getting players right, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bryant have a bounce-back season.

Work To Do

The Heat need to trade for Lillard or not. There really isn’t a whole lot else to do. If they don’t trade for Lillard, they’ll wage a five-way battle for roster spots in training camp. And it’s a pretty good bet that one of those players will eventually play key rotation minutes for Miami.

But really, this is all about a Lillard trade. Nothing else here can approach the impact of getting that deal done.

Orlando Magic

Players Returning (14)

Cole Anthony, Paolo Banchero, Goga Bitadze, Wendell Carter Jr., Makelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Kevon Harris (two-way), Caleb Houstan, Jonathan Isaac, Chuma Okeke, Admiral Schofield (two-way), Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner

Players Added (3)

Anthony Black, Jett Howard, Joe Ingles

Players Lost (3)

Bol Bol, Michael Carter-Williams, Jay Scrubb (two-way)

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

The Magic are $34.3 million under the luxury tax line.

Spending Power Remaining

Orlando has the full $7.7 million room exception remaining.

Biggest Move of the Summer

For this season: signing Joe Ingles. For the long-term: drafting Anthony Black and Jett Howard.

Orlando is trying to push up the standing. After last season’s disastrous 5-20 start, Orlando went 29-28. The Magic believe they are closer to that .500 team of the final two-thirds of the season, than the injury-plagued group that opened the year.

We’re inclined to believe them. That’s why signing Ingles makes sense. He’ll be the grownup in a young locker room, while providing some shooting and a lot of ball movement on the floor. Ingles is more 3/4 now, than the 2/3 he used to be, but that’s fine. He’ll play about 20 minutes a night and help this fledgling group mature.

Black and Howard were this year’s first-round picks. Black is ready to defend in the NBA right now, but the rest of his game needs work. He has to improve his shot and his playmaking, but he oozes potential. Howard is closer to ready to contribute as an NBA shooter, but the rest of his game is where he needs to improve. Because Orlando’s roster is pretty loaded with young talent, neither Black nor Howard might make much of an impact this season.

Work To Do

Jamahl Mosley can have some fun in training camp this year, assuming his guys stay healthy. The Magic are deep in guys who can play. Just as importantly: Orlando is deep in guys who need to play. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner will come into camp off a summer of national team experience, along with a few others. But it’s those two burgeoning stars who are ready to take another big step forward.

This season is about figuring out who fits around Banchero and Wagner, while also winning more games. The Magic have a lot of the rotation to figure out, especially in the backcourt, but that’s better than the “no healthy perimeter players” situation that Mosley started last season with. This time, things are starting from a far better place.

Washington Wizards

Players Returning (8)

Deni Avdija, Xavier Cooks, Johnny Davis, Daniel Gafford, Anthony Gill, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma, Delon Wright

Players Added (10)

Jared Butler (two-way), Patrick Baldwin Jr., Bilal Coulibaly, Danilo Gallinari, Tyus Jones, Mike Muscala, Eugene Omoruyi (two-way), Jordan Poole, Ryan Rollins, Landry Shamet

Players Lost (9)

Bradley Beal, Taj Gibson, Jordan Goodwin, Jay Huff (two-way), Quenton Jackson (two-way), Monte Morris, Kendrick Nunn, Kristaps Porzingis, Isaiah Todd

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

The Wizards are $26.9 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

Washington has the full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE left, plus the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Leaning fully into a rebuild. Washington traded away Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, and shed a lot of the long-term salary they had on their cap sheet. They also picked up several draft picks in the Beal trade, in addition to the new cap flexibility. These moves truly mark a new direction for the Wizards.

Washington committed some of that newfound cap flexibility to Jordan Poole, who they acquired by flipping Chris Paul after the Beal trade, and by re-signing Kyle Kuzma. The two veterans will give the Wizards scoring and shooting, as the roster develops over the next few years.

Tyus Jones was a very solid pickup in the Porzingis trade. He’s long been thought of as someone who could handle a starting role. It looks like we’ll find out, as Jones is the best Washington has at the point guard position.

Everyone else the Wizards acquired this summer is a mix of flyers on young players and veterans that were included for salary reasons. Washington will have opportunities for players to emerge or for vets to get their careers back on track.

Work To Do

The Wizards have to cut or trade a player with a guaranteed standard salary to get into roster compliance. They also have a two-way spot to fill.

Beyond that, Washington could extend Deni Avdija, as he’s eligible for a rookie scale extension. Given the in-progress nature of the Wizards roster, that one might play out to restricted free agency next summer. For now, only Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole and rookie Bilal Coulibaly seem to have guaranteed long-term futures with the Wizards. Everyone else is playing for a spot for this season and beyond, both in Washington and, for some, in the NBA as a whole.

 

Keith SmithAugust 15, 2023

The 2023 NBA offseason is mostly behind us. Why only mostly? Well, Damian Lillard and James Harden still call Portland and Philadelphia home, respectively. Until those guys are traded (more likely) or show up for training camp (less likely), the offseason won’t really be wrapped up.

But outside of those two stars, rosters are more or less set to open the 2023-24 season. And that means we can start looking ahead by nearly a year to what the landscape looks like for the 2024 NBA offseason.

The NBA CBA negotiations wrapped up without any sort of major hitches. No work stoppages and everything is moving forward as per usual. The salary cap settled at just over $136 million for the 2023-24 season. That was a 10% increase over last year’s cap of about $123.6 million. The luxury tax landed at $165.6 million, with the tax apron coming in at $172.3 million. The new second tax apron (it really is a shame that “super tax” hasn’t caught on more!) is set at $182.8 million.

For the 2024-25 season, the NBA is being very conservative. Initial projections are that we’ll see just a 4.4% increase. That means a cap of $142 million, a tax line of $172.5 million, first apron of $179.9 million and second apron of $190.8 million. The reason for this conservative projection is likely driven by the uncertainty with several Regional Sports Networks (RSNs). Diamond Sports Group, the parent company of Bally Sports, currently broadcasts games for about half of the NBA teams. They are going through bankruptcy proceedings, and that’s caused issues for those teams, and the league as a whole. Thus, the conservative cap projection.

We’re basing everything on the NBA’s official projection. Yes, there is a good chance the cap raises by more than a modest 4.4%. It might even go up the full 10%, which many smart capologists are betting on. But for now, for consistency purposes, we run with the league’s official projection.

With all of that said, here’s our first pass at what the spending power landscape might look like in the summer of 2024.

(Note: These projections are made using the noted cap and tax figures above, draft pick cap holds based on projected standings and a projection on all option and guarantee decisions by players and teams. No extensions or trades have been projected. We will call out where those types of situations could impact a team projection.)

Cap Space Teams – 7 Teams

  1. San Antonio Spurs: $55.3 million

  2. Orlando Magic: $51.3 million

  3. Utah Jazz: $41.6 million

  4. Charlotte Hornets: $40.7 million

  5. Detroit Pistons: $38.7 million

  6. Philadelphia 76ers: $32.9 million

  7. Washington Wizards: $20.1 million

Seven teams project to have cap space in 2024. Not only will these teams likely go the cap space route, but they’ll also have the $8.1 million Room Exception too. In the new CBA world, the Room Exception has more spending power than the Taxpayer MLE does. So, these seven teams are kind of in control of the free agent board.

The Spurs are highly likely to use some of their $55 million in an extension for Devin Vassell. But even a deal of $20 million or more would leave San Antonio with considerable cap space. There’s also a world where the Spurs choose to keep Vassell’s moderate cap hold of $17.7 million on the books to maximize their cap space, while re-signing Vassell after.

This projection for the Magic is largely dependent on Orlando moving on from Jonathan Isaac. Given that his deal is fully non-guaranteed for 2024-25, and he still can’t stay healthy, it’s probably time for the Magic to go in a different direction. Orlando may use a chunk of this space to re-sign Markelle Fultz and/or Cole Anthony. They could also extend Fultz and/or Anthony before it gets to that point. Either way, the Magic should have the ability to add some major talent to a developing young roster.

Utah is sitting pretty. They’ve got all of their core players under contract, with a ton potential cap space. Some of this spending power could be used to renegotiate-and-extend Lauri Markkanen’s deal. That’s en vogue at the moment, with Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis, as well as Jazzman Jordan Clarkson, having inked such deals in the last year. If Utah chooses to let things play out with Markkanen, they could be a major player in free agency, as they’ve got a ready-to-win roster.

The Hornets are a tricky projection. As of this writing, P.J. Washington hasn’t re-signed. If he signs a long-term deal, that will eat into some of this $40 million in spending power. If Washington signs his qualifying offer for this season, a la teammate Miles Bridges, he’ll be headed towards unrestricted free agency and a potential departure next summer. We’re betting on the latter for now and the Hornets having cap space to build around an extended LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.

Detroit feels like they are perpetually in this spot of sitting on a bunch of cap space with an interesting roster of vets and young players. This season will give us a big sense of the Pistons plans. If they’re competitive, they might use some of this space to add more veteran talent. If they struggle again, then it’s probably time to move on from some of the older players and reset once again around the kids.

The 76ers are a bit of a mess. The James Harden drama lingers over the team, but Philadelphia has given us some clues as to their plans for next summer, independent of the Harden situation. By not extending Tyrese Maxey, who is the organization’s second-most important player behind Joel Embiid, the Sixers are signaling they intend to have cap space next summer. It won’t be the “double max contract” cap room that’s been bandied about, but Philadelphia will have enough to make some moves as they rebuild around Embiid and an ultimately re-signed restricted free agent Maxey.

Washington cleaned up their cap sheet considerably, despite taking on Jordan Poole’s contract and re-signing Kyle Kuzma. But both of those guys make less than Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis by a considerable amount, so the Wizards are in a better spot both short- and long-term. They could easily stay over the cap, as $20 million is right in range where that becomes and either/or decision. If the Wizards retain Tyus Jones, they’ll end up staying over the cap. If not, then they’ll be hunting for a point guard to put next to Kuzma and Poole.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams – 10 Teams

  1. Brooklyn Nets

  2. Chicago Bulls

  3. Houston Rockets

  4. Indiana Pacers

  5. Miami Heat

  6. New Orleans Pelicans

  7. New York Knicks

  8. Oklahoma City Thunder

  9. Sacramento Kings

  10. Toronto Raptors

These 10 teams project to have access to the beefed-up Non-Taxpayer MLE of $12.95 million. This group is mostly full of playoff contenders, or teams trying to get into that position.

The Nets have rebuilt on the fly in an impressive manner. Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson are signed for the next three and four seasons, respectively. The draft pick situation has been reset with the trades of their former Big 3. Of the team’s free agents, Nic Claxton is the most important one to get re-signed. Brooklyn can do that and still have plenty of clearance under the tax line to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Chicago didn’t make a lot of their fans happy by extending Nikola Vucevic and re-signing Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu. This wasn’t a group that was screaming “Run it back!”. But the Bulls have a solid group, even if there are question marks. Pending what happens with re-signing or extending DeMar DeRozan and/or Patrick Williams, Chicago could have enough room to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE. That’s not bad, considering the team is still working around Lonzo Ball’s salary on the books, while he tries to come back from his knee injury.

Houston spent big this summer, and that probably took them out of the cap space derby for next summer. That’s fine. The Rockets are trying to push things forward. The roster remains pretty full, so Houston should be able to spend the full MLE on a targeted signing.

The Pacers are kind of in the same spot as the Rockets, but about a year ahead on the rebuilding timeline. Indiana is ready to win now. Their young guys are ready now, and they’ve got vets in place. Indiana’s cap sheet is also relatively clean. They’ve got a few pending free agents, but even if they re-sign or extend guys like Buddy Hield and Obi Toppin, the Pacers will likely have the ability to use the full MLE.

Miami…what to do with Miami? Projecting where the Heat will be next summer is kind of an exercise in futility. If they trade for Damian Lillard, they’ll likely be a tax team, and potentially up against the super tax. If they don’t, the Heat could have the Non-Taxpayer MLE to add someone alongside all the names you already know. We’ll definitely be updating this one down the line, as this situation remains very much in flux.

The Pelicans are dancing around the tax line this season, but could have enough clearance to use the full MLE next summer. A lot depends on what happens with Jonas Valanciunas. He wants an extension, but New Orleans seems at least as open to trading him, as they do extending him. If the latter happens, the Pels could have some money to spend in the form of the MLE.

The Knicks are probably going to spend a good chunk of change to extend Immanuel Quickley. Or they should, at least. Even so, they should still have room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. The only way this projection changes is if Evan Fournier is traded to bring long-term money onto the books. Then, the Knicks will probably be a Taxpayer MLE team.

It might be a surprise to see the Thunder here, as opposed to in the cap space section, but they’re carrying more money than most think. The good news? None of that is bad salary. A few years of high and multiple draft picks, along with a few smart re-signings, have the team just over the cap. Also working for Oklahoma City is that they can use the full MLE on a targeted player, because they have a mostly full roster too.

Sacramento is coming off their best season in forever, and they’ve got the ability to keep the good times rolling. The Kings should be about $20 million clear of the luxury tax line next summer. They’ll use some of the clearance to re-sign Malik Monk, but Sacramento should still have enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. For a team that doesn’t need a lot, that’s a great spot to be in.

The Raptors are in a weird spot. Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. will likely be free agents, along with probably Precious Achiuwa. If those guys all came off the books entirely, Toronto could have a ton of cap space. If one of two them return, the Raps are over the cap. If all returned, they’re probably up against the tax. It’ll probably fall in the middle, and that leaves Toronto with the MLE to spend.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams – 7 Teams

  1. Atlanta Hawks

  2. Cleveland Cavaliers

  3. Dallas Mavericks

  4. Denver Nuggets

  5. Los Angeles Lakers

  6. Minnesota Timberwolves

  7. Portland Trail Blazers

The Taxpayer MLE is no longer much of an advantage for the NBA’s more-expensive teams. It’s been knocked down to just $5.22 million in value for 2024-25. The real kicker is that using the Taxpayer MLE hard caps a team at the second tax apron. That makes it hard to find the right amount of wiggle room to use this MLE, while staying under that hard cap.

Atlanta reset their cap sheet by salary-dumping John Collins. Pending extensions for Onyeka Okongwu and Saddiq Bey, the Hawks could be right back to bumping against the luxury tax line. Extending Okongwu seems important, given the trade of Collins and Clint Capela having just two years left on his deal. There’s also the fact that Okongwu is pushing Capela for the Hawks best big man status. Add it all up, and Atlanta is probably working right around the tax apron next season.

The Cavs spent a good chunk of money this offseason. Combine that with Darius Garland’s extension and Donovan Mitchell’s and Jarrett Allen’s deals, and Cleveland is as expensive as they’ve been since LeBron James was on the team. If Ricky Rubio retires, the Cavaliers could probably angle themselves in a spot to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. But for now, put them in Taxpayer MLE territory.

The Mavericks are just below the tax line, but that’s before extending or re-signing Josh Green. He’s an integral part of the team’s rotation (and a likely starter this season), so Green will be extended or re-signed. That’ll leave Dallas working with either the Taxpayer MLE, or maybe dancing just below the second apron line.

Denver is sitting about $6.3 million under the second apron. That should give them juuuuuuust enough room to use the Taxpayer MLE and to sign a player to a minimum deal. That’s good news, because Denver should only have one or two roster spots to fill. If they can shed a salary or two, they’ll have even more wiggle room under the super tax.

The Lakers have rebuilt their roster, but still left themselves some room to work. And if some guys move on, then Los Angeles will have even more room to work with. They’ll probably have several roster spots to fill, so using their MLE in a productive way is very important to the Lakers. Things will probably look similar to this summer, with lots of movement through re-signings, using the MLE and minimum deals.

Minnesota is going to be up against the tax to open next summer. They’ve got most of their core guys signed, but if Jaden McDaniels extends, they’ll be well over the tax. If not, they have to carve out room to re-sign McDaniels next summer. He’s their best all-around defender and a better-than-you-think offensive player. Pending what he signs for, the Wolves could even be approaching super tax status.

Portland is in a similar place to Miami and Philadelphia. We don’t really know where to put them. For now, with Damian Lillard’s $48.8 million on the books, the Blazers are close to being a super tax team. If they move on from Lillard, they’ll still probably take back at least some long-term money. We’re going to split the difference and call them a Taxpayer team for now, owning that this could change greatly.

Super Tax Teams (no signing exception) – 6 Teams

  1. Boston Celtics

  2. Golden State Warriors

  3. LA Clippers

  4. Memphis Grizzlies

  5. Milwaukee Bucks

  6. Phoenix Suns

This is the same group as this current season, minus swapping out the Heat for the Grizzlies, and there’s a good chance Miami lands back here again too. This group also comprises some of the top contenders in the NBA. If you’re going to spend this much, you better be in the mix for the Finals.

Reminder: Super Tax teams are limited to re-signing their own free agents, signing their draft picks and signing minimum deals. And in the summer of 2024, the new and far-more restrictive trade rules will be in full effect, as well.

Boston is set to be over the second apron by virtue of signing Jaylen Brown to his super max extension. The Celtics also extended Kristaps Porzingis. They’ll likely have a few roster spots to fill, and that’ll happen through the draft or veteran minimum signings. With extensions looming for Jayson Tatum and Derrick White, Boston will probably be in this spot for the next few years.

Golden State could get out of the super tax mix. Could. Not likely to happen though. That would mean the Warriors re-signed Klay Thompson to a deal worth a fraction of what he makes now, or they let him walk entirely. If Thompson looks good and the Dubs contend, they’ll run it back for at least a couple more years of the super tax.

The Clippers are fascinating. They could be the most expensive roster in the league if they extend or re-sign all their major free agents (including maybe James Harden?). Or LA could be resetting their roster with around $100 million in cap space. Bet on the former, as the Clips are going to try to keep this group together to get them to that elusive Finals berth. With a new arena opening, LA isn’t going to want to be rebuilding.

It might surprise some to see Memphis here. The Grizzlies have been thought of as an up-and-coming team with great flexibility. Well, they’re here now. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. will all be on their extended deals, and the team traded for Luke Kennard and Marcus Smart in the last year. All that salary has Memphis just below the second apron and without any kind of signing exceptions projected for next season. That’s no big deal for the Grizzlies, because their roster is basically full as is.

Milwaukee’s projection mostly involves an idea that the team will extend or re-sign Jrue Holiday. If Holiday approaches a deal in the range of $35 to $40 million in first-year salary, then the Bucks will probably be right around the super tax. If Holiday takes a discount, Milwaukee could be far enough under the second apron to use the Taxpayer MLE.

Phoenix has over $185 million committed to the foursome of Deandre Ayton, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. That’s less than $6 million under the second apron with 11 roster spots to fill. Much like this past summer, when the Suns nailed their minimum signings, they’ll be in the same boat for at least the next couple of years. They’ll need to do similarly good work to flesh out their roster around their big-money quartet.

 

Keith SmithAugust 08, 2023

The NBA offseason is just about wrapped up. As of this writing, we’re still waiting on trades for Damian Lillard, James Harden and maybe Pascal Siakam. There are a handful of impact free agents left on the board, but every team has used almost all of their meaningful cap space. There are lots of exceptions left, but it seems as though teams are in wait-and-see mode, as the calendar moves into the dog days of August.

That means it’s time to reset where each roster stands. We’re going to look at who is returning, who was acquired and who has departed. We’ll also answer a few key questions about each team.

We covered the Atlantic Division, Central Division and Pacific Division already. Next up: The Southwest Division!

Dallas Mavericks

Players Returning (9)

Luka Doncic, Josh Green, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jaden Hardy, Kyrie Irving, Maxi Kleber, A.J. Lawson (two-way), JaVale McGee, Dwight Powell

Players Added (7)

Seth Curry, Dante Exum, Richaun Holmes, Dereck Lively II, Mike Miles Jr. (two-way), Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Grant Williams

Players Lost (8)

Davis Bertans, Reggie Bullock, Justin Holiday, Markieff Morris, Frank Ntilikina, Theo Pinson, Christian Wood, McKinley Wright IV (two-way)

Roster Openings

1 standard and 1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Dallas is $4.1 million under the luxury tax line.

Spending Power Remaining

The Mavs have $5.4 million remaining of the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Re-signing Kyrie Irving. The Mavericks did a lot of things this summer, but re-signing Irving has to be at the top of the list. Irving is a superstar and Dallas gave up quite a bit to get him in last season’s trade. The Mavs also got Irving for far less than the full maximum deal that he could have signed. Irving signed for more than $10 million less than his first-year max salary, and he signed a three-year deal too. All-around, this deal is a win for both the Mavericks and Irving.

Dallas also beefed up their frontcourt by signing-and-trading for Grant Williams, trading for Richaun Holmes and re-signing Dwight Powell. All three should be integral members of the Mavs big man rotation, along with the returning Maxi Kleber. Williams is effectively the replacement for Dorian Finney-Smith, who was traded to get Irving. And a bonus for Dallas is that Williams is making slightly less than Finney-Smith over the next few seasons.

Work To Do

Dallas has a couple of roster spots to fill. They’ve also been openly shopping Tim Hardaway Jr. and JaVale McGee. That’s about $23.6 million in matching salary that could bring back a rotation upgrade.

Josh Green is also extension-eligible. Negotiations on a extending his rookie deal could continue up to the start of the regular season. Green has become an important player on both ends of the floor for Dallas, so keep an eye on these discussions.

Houston Rockets

Players Returning (8)

Darius Days (two-way), Tari Eason, Jalen Green, Trevor Hudgins (two-way), Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Jae’Sean Tate

Players Added (8)

Dillon Brooks, Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday, Jock Landale, Jermaine Samuels (two-way), Amen Thompson, Fred VanVleet, Cameron Whitmore

Players Lost (9)

D.J. Augustin, Willie Cauley-Stein, Josh Christopher, Usman Garuba, Frank Kaminsky, Boban Marjanovic, Kenyon Martin Jr., Daishen Nix, TyTy Washington Jr.

Roster Openings

1 standard spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Houston is about $21.6 million under the luxury tax

Spending Power Remaining

The Rockets have the full $7.7 million Room Exception available.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Adding veterans to the roster. Houston made it clear months before free agency started that they would be attempting add veterans to the roster. Mission accomplished. The Rockets add over 30 years in combined veteran experience this summer.

The key guys are Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. Both should start and will be good fits in upgrading first-year head coach Ime Udoka’s defense. Jeff Green and Jock Landale both have an opportunity to play key rotation roles off the bench, while putting pressure on Houston’s kids to play the right way.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Rockets summer is perhaps a good illustration of what happens when you have too many draft picks. You can’t keep everyone, while simultaneously adding outside talent. That saw Houston effectively salary-dump former first-round selections in Josh Christopher, Usman Garuba and TyTy Washington. None are major losses, but it’s a cautionary tale on hanging on to every draft pick you acquire while rebuilding.

Work To Do

The Rockets have one roster spot to fill. They’ve got four players on camp deals, so one of them could claim that spot. Or Houston could pick up a veteran that needs a home ahead of the season.

Beyond that, the work falls on Ime Udoka. In his first year with the Rockets, he has to meld the returning youngsters with the veterans into a cohesive rotation and team. The talent is there, it’s up to Udoka and the players to make it work.

Memphis Grizzlies

Players Returning (15)

Steven Adams, Santi Aldama, Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Jacob Gilyard (two-way), Jaren Jackson Jr., Luke Kennard, John Konchar, Jake LaRavia, Kenneth Lofton Jr., Ja Morant, David Roddy, Xavier Tillman Sr., Ziaire Williams, Vince Williams Jr. (two-way)

Players Added (4)

Josh Christopher, Derrick Rose, Marcus Smart, Isaiah Todd

Players Lost (2)

Dillon Brooks, Tyus Jones

Roster Openings

None.

Cap/Tax Status

Memphis is $13.4 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

The Grizzlies have their full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE available, as well as the full $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Trading for Marcus Smart. Memphis didn’t have a lot of roster turnover, as they are returning a league-high 15 players from last season, but they did well with the few moves they did make. The Grizzlies added Smart to effectively replace the two rotation players they lost in Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones.

Smart will likely start at point guard for Memphis to open the season, while Ja Morant is suspended. Then when Morant returns, Smart will likely start in the spot that formerly belonged to Brooks, while also functioning as the backup point guard. Smart’s defense and playmaking will be welcomed additions for the Grizzlies on both ends.

Memphis also did well to add Derrick Rose as a backup point guard. Rose will likely be needed in the first part of the year while Morant is out, then he can transition into a depth role.

Work To Do

The Grizzlies roster is so full that they’ll have to cut two players with guaranteed contracts. That may be two guys they acquired in trades this summer in Josh Christopher and Isaiah Todd. Memphis likes to keep their own drafted and developed players, so Christopher and Todd may not be long for the roster.

New Orleans Pelicans

Players Returning (13)

Jose Alvarado, Dyson Daniels, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, Kira Lewis Jr., E.J. Liddell, Naji Marshall, C.J. McCollum, Trey Murphy III, Larry Nance Jr., Dereon Seabron (two-way), Jonas Valanciunas, Zion Williamson

Players Added (2)

Jordan Hawkins, Cody Zeller

Players Lost (4)

Jaxson Hayes, Willy Hernangomez, Josh Richardson, Garrett Temple

Roster Openings

2 two-way spots.

Cap/Tax Status

The Pelicans are $2.9 million over the luxury tax line.

Spending Power Remaining

New Orleans has $10.6 million remaining of their Non-Taxpayer MLE and all of their $4.5 million Bi-Annuel Exception.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Re-signing Herb Jones. New Orleans acted a year early in re-signing Jones, but they now have him locked up for the next four years. He’s on the cusp of being a mainstay on the All-Defense team, and the offense is coming along. Jones is a perfect fit alongside the team’s stars, so retaining him was important.

The next biggest move was one the Pelicans didn’t make. They didn’t trade Zion Williamson. Was that a mistake? Only time, and Williamson’s health, will give us that answer. When healthy, he’s been a star. But…well…you know.

Work To Do

New Orleans needs to sign a couple of two-way players, but the roster is pretty well set. Jonas Valanciunas is extension-eligible and has made it known he’d like to extend. He’s also been rumored in just about any trade package involving the Pels this summer. We’ll see how that one plays out.

Also, this may go into the season, maybe as deep as the trade deadline, but expect the Pelicans to get out of the tax. They’re a minor move or two away from ducking under the tax line. Unless they’re a top-tier title contender, they’ll make the necessary moves to get out of paying the tax.

San Antonio Spurs

Players Returning (14)

Dominick Barlow (two-way), Charles Bassey, Khem Birch, Malaki Branham, Julian Champagnie, Zach Collins, Devonte’ Graham, Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Doug McDermott, Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, Blake Wesley

Players Added (6)

Reggie Bullock, Sidy Cissoko, Cedi Osman, Cameron Payne, Sir’Jabari Rice (two-way), Victor Wembanyama

Players Lost (3)

Keita Bates-Diop, Gorgui Dieng, Romeo Langford

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

The Spurs are $28.8 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

San Antonio has their full $7.7 million Room Exception available.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Drafting Victor Wembanyama. Did you really think it was going to be anything else?

Look, the Spurs don’t deserve a ton of credit for this one. It was lottery luck that delivered Wembanyama, but San Antonio didn’t overthink it or get cute with a trade. They now have their future superstar and franchise player in place around an exciting young core.

San Antonio also re-signed Tre Jones to a very fair contract and acquired a bunch of veterans in salary-shedding trades. And, arguably right behind drafting Wembanyama on the importance scale: the Spurs re-signed Gregg Popovich to a new contract. He’ll be around to shepherd this group through their early stages of development.

Work To Do

San Antonio is currently three players over the regular season roster limit. That means they’ll be eating some guaranteed salary, barring trades. And that may come in the form of useful veteran players, which means keeping an eye on trades. The Spurs don’t have to get into roster compliance until the end of the preseason. They might be able to see if a playoff contender has a need for one of their players, then swing a deal vs simply cutting them.

Beyond that, Gregg Popovich has to figure out how all of these pieces fit together. The Spurs have a little bit of everything in terms of wings, frontcourt players and on-ball scorers. They’re still a little light at point guard and in playmakers behind Tre Jones. That means ballhandling and on-ball playmaking duties will go to young players who can use the reps. That could get a little messy at times, but it will have long-term benefits for the players and the Spurs.

Keith SmithAugust 03, 2023

The NBA offseason is just about wrapped up. As of this writing, we’re still waiting on trades for Damian Lillard, James Harden and maybe Pascal Siakam. There are a handful of impact free agents left on the board, but every team has used almost all of their meaningful cap space. There are lots of exceptions left, but it seems as though teams are in wait-and-see mode, as the calendar moves into the dog days of August.

That means it’s time to reset where each roster stands. We’re going to look at who is returning, who was acquired and who has departed. We’ll also answer a few key questions about each team.

We covered the Atlantic Division and Pacific Division already. Next up: The Central Division!

Chicago Bulls

Players Returning (12) 

Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan, Ayo Dosunmu, Andre Drummond, Carlik Jones, Zach LaVine, Justin Lewis (two-way), Dalen Terry, Nikola Vucevic, Coby White, Patrick Williams

Players Added (5)

Onuralp Bitim (two-way), Jevon Carter, Torrey Craig, Julian Phillips, Adama Sanogo (two-way)

Players Lost (5)

Patrick Beverley, Javonte Green, Derrick Jones Jr., Marko Simonovic, Terry Taylor (two-way)

Roster Openings

None.

Cap/Tax Status

The Bulls are $1.8 million under the luxury tax line.

Spending Power Remaining

Chicago has $6.2 million remaining of the Non-Taxpayer MLE. The Bulls also have a $10.2 million Disabled Player Exception for Lonzo Ball.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Extending Nikola Vucevic. It was a controversial extension, because some Bulls fans were hoping the team would blow up the roster and start over. But Chicago got Vucevic on a fair deal for $60 million over the next three seasons. It would have been better if the Bulls had some protection on the final season of the deal, but it’s still a fair value.

As far as outside additions go, Jevon Carter was a very nice pickup, as was Torrey Craig. Both players will give the Bulls a boost defensively, and both have shot it well in recent years.

Work To Do

Chicago doesn’t have a lot left to do. The roster is more or less finished. They don’t currently have a spot to give a player if they use the Lonzo Ball DPE to sign someone. That means that will be a piece of spending power that lingers into the season.

Mostly, it’s a good, if uninspiring roster. The Bulls should compete for a spot in the playoffs, but likely through the Play-In Tournament. That’s the kind of stuck-in-purgatory situation that Chicago fans were hoping to avoid this season.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Players Returning (10)

Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Sam Merrill, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Isaiah Mobley (two-way), Isaac Okoro, Ricky Rubio, Dean Wade

Players Added (6)

Emoni Bates (two-way), Ty Jerome, Damian Jones, Georges Niang, Craig Porter Jr. (two-way), Max Strus

Players Lost (7)

Mamadi Diakite (two-way), Danny Green, Robin Lopez, Raul Neto, Cedi Osman, Lamar Stevens, Dylan Windler

Roster Openings

2 standard spots.

Cap/Tax Status

The Cavaliers are about $2.8 million under the luxury tax

Spending Power Remaining

The Cavaliers have $3.6 million remaining of the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Adding shooting via Max Strus, Georges Niang and Ty Jerome. It’s hard to narrow this down to one move, because all three players are going to help Cleveland a lot. Strus got the biggest payday by a wide margin, and he could start on the wing for the Cavs. So, he’s probably the single biggest move.

Cleveland also brough back Caris LeVert on two-year, $32 million deal. That was more than fair, given his ability to be a productive bench scorer. Retaining LeVert should allow the team to avoid offensive droughts when Darius Garland or Donovan Mitchell sit.

Finally, sometimes the best moves are ones you don’t make. The Cavaliers didn’t swing a major trade involving one of their core players, despite some chatter that a big deal could be a thing. Instead, they added very solid pieces around that core in hopes of a deeper playoff run this season.

Work To Do

Cleveland has a couple of roster spots to fill. They could use another veteran center to replace Robin Lopez. Damian Jones was a fine addition, considering his minimum deal, but he’s been inconsistent throughout his career. Having Dean Wade healthy will help quite a bit to round out the frontcourt too.

The Cavs could also use one more point guard. Ricky Rubio really struggled last season, and he’ll be 33 years old this season. Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell are awesome, but one more ballhandler for depth purposes should be added before the season starts.

Detroit Pistons

Players Returning (11)

Marvin Bagley III, Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, Killian Hayes, Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Livers, Jared Rhoden (two-way), Isaiah Stewart II, James Wiseman

Players Added (5)

Malcolm Cazalon (two-way), Joe Harris, Monte Morris, Marcus Sasser, Ausar Thompson

Players Lost (5)

Hamidou Diallo, R.J. Hampton, Cory Joseph, Rodney McGruder, Eugune Omoruyi

Roster Openings

1 standard spot and 1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Detroit is $29.6 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

The Pistons have their full Room Exception of $7.7 million available.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Adding Joe Harris and Monte Morris. The Pistons have made it clear that they are trying to move forward this season. As bench veterans, Harris and Morris will help toward that end. Harris adds much-needed shooting, while Morris can be a steady hand to run the offense.

Detroit also held on Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks, which seemed likely after not trading either player at last season’s trade deadline. This team has an interesting mix of solid veterans around a lot of developing young players.

On the sideline, Detroit gave Monty Williams the richest coaching deal in NBA history. Williams is a respected coach and the Pistons are hoping he’ll lead them back to playoff appearances.

Work To Do

There isn’t a lot left to be done roster-wise. The Pistons have viable NBA players or highly-touted prospects at every position. Monty Williams isn’t going to hand minutes to anyone who hasn’t earned them. There are going to be a lot of fun roster battles at each position to monitor throughout the preseason.

Indiana Pacers

Players Returning (12)

Kendall Brown (two-way), Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Isaiah Jackson, Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Jordan Nwora, Jalen Smith, Daniel Theis, Myles Turner

Players Added (6)

Bruce Brown, Ben Sheppard, Oscar Tshiebwe (two-way), Obi Toppin, Jarace Walker, Isaiah Wong (two-way)

Players Lost (5)

Oshae Brissett, Chris Duarte, George Hill, James Johnson, Gabe York

Roster Openings

None.

Cap/Tax Status

The Pacers have the ability to still create $7.5 million in cap space.

Spending Power Remaining

In addition to their cap space, Indiana has the entirety of the $7.7 million room exception remaining.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Extending Tyrese Haliburton. The Pacers have their star and franchise player in Haliburton. He’s happy in Indiana and the team got him signed to a Designated Rookie extension. Having a young All-Star locked up for years is huge for a small market team.

Coming in behind extending Haliburton is adding Bruce Brown. Did Indiana overpay a little for Brown? Probably. But it’s really a one-year, $22 million deal, because the Pacers have a team option on the second season. If for some reason things aren’t working out, Indiana can move on with ease next summer. But we’re betting things work out just fine.

Getting Obi Toppin for a couple of relatively minor second-round picks was also a steal by Indiana. They needed to add some size and Toppin’s skillset should be a perfect fit for the go-go-go Pacers. He could end up being a breakout player this season.

Work To Do

Indiana is pretty much done roster-wise. They could hammer out an extension with Obi Toppin. But don’t be surprised if the Pacers want to see how he fits before committing long-term money.

The roster still skews heavy with guards and wings, but that’s something Kevin Pritchard and his staff can figure out in-season. There isn’t a lot of size at the forward and center spots, so Indiana could move some of their perimeter depth for a bit more frontcourt depth.

Milwaukee Bucks

Players Returning (12)

Grayson Allen, Gianis Antetokounmpo, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, MarJon Beauchamp, Pat Connaughton, Jae Crowder, A.J. Green, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, Lindell Wigginton (two-way)

Players Added (5)

Malik Beasley, Andre Jackson Jr., Chris Livingston, Robin Lopez, Omari Moore (two-way)

Players Lost (5)

Jevon Carter, Goran Dragic, Joe Ingles, Meyers Leonard, Wesley Matthews

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

The Bucks are $6.5 million over the second tax apron.

Spending Power Remaining

Milwaukee can only offer minimum contracts, as they are over the second tax apron.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Re-signing Khris Middleton. There were rumors for months that one of the cap space teams was going to throw the proverbial bag at Middleton. Whether that happened or not, we’ll never really know, as he re-signed with Milwaukee for $95 million guaranteed over three seasons. If healthy, Middleton is a perfect fit with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday and a solid two-way wing. Given the Bucks couldn’t replace him if he left, getting Middleton back was huge.

Only slightly less important was retaining Brook Lopez for $48 million over the next two seasons. He’s been one of the best defensive centers in the league since signing in Milwaukee, and his offensive game fits like a glove around the Bucks stars.

Getting Malik Beasley on a minimum deal was a nice pickup too. He’ll give first-year head coach Adrian Griffin another option on the wing. That’s important, given Middleton’s propensity to miss games.

Work To Do

The Bucks have a two-way spot to fill, but they’re basically done. The roster is deep and balanced. Health is probably the biggest question for how deep of a run this team can make.

The next biggest question is how Adrian Griffin will adapt to being a first-time head coach. Griffin was advocated for by the players, so that should make his transition a bit smoother. But Mike Budenholzer had an incredible amount of success in Milwaukee. So, it’s natural that there will be some “prove it” moments coming this season.

If there is anything the Bucks seem to be missing from this roster is a proven backup point guard behind Jrue Holiday. That’s something the team could still address in the coming weeks, or leading up to the trade deadline.

 

Keith SmithJuly 31, 2023

It’s often said that timing is everything in life. That’s true for Jaylen Brown, the Boston Celtics and your intrepid author here.

It took about three weeks or so longer than expected, but Brown reached an agreement on a Designated Veteran Extension with the Celtics. As luck would have it, Brown’s deal was agreed to as I was out to sea on our long-awaited family vacation. Without the benefit of the internet (or perhaps without the detriment of the internet!), I learned about the deal kind of old school. I turned on SportsCenter one morning and that was the lead story.

Now, a week or later, we have all the details on Brown’s extension, and I have thoughts. These are going to be a bit scattered. These are the things that came to mind about Brown, the Celtics, the process and some thoughts on the impact of the deal on the NBA as a whole.

The Contract 

Jaylen Brown signed under the Designated Veteran Player Extension rules that have existed over the last couple of CBAs. Nothing Brown signed for is new or unprecedented, despite some of the sensationalized reporting around the deal. I’ll have more thoughts on that later.

Brown’s new contract is for five years and will start at 35% of the salary cap in the 2024-25 season. There are no options in the deal. His contract includes a trade bonus for the lesser of 7% of his salary or $7 million.

Unlike Brown’s current deal, there are no incentives in this contract. Brown will make the full 35% of the cap in 2024-25, with the maximum 8% raises in the following seasons. Brown’s current contract with Boston is ladened with several different incentives related to individual and team success. This one is for the maximum that Brown could get, without any bonuses involved.

The deal has been reported as being for $304 million over five years. For that to be the total number, Brown would need to start at about $52.4 million in first-year salary. That assumes the salary cap will again jump by the maximum possible 10%. However, it’s not quite that simple.

The NBA’s current projection for the 2024-25 salary cap is $142 million. That’s a modest 4.4% bump. The reason for this lower-than-expected projection is that there is considerable uncertainty within the Bally Regional Sports Network system that carries the games for about half of the NBA’s teams. The NBA is baking in some potential losses due to the bankruptcy of the Bally RSN’s parent company Diamond Sports.

Now, the cap may very well end up jumping by 10%, but that’s not what the NBA is currently projecting. Therefore, we are basing Jaylen Brown’s extension off the actual projection of a cap of $142 million.

That makes the projection for Brown’s Designated Veteran Extension as five years, $288,260,000, with a first-year salary of $49,700,000.

The Reporting

Related to the above, the reporting around Brown’s extension got a little sideways. And it’s caused some madness across the world of sports. This is true on the team, player, analyst and fan sides.

As we know by now, the terms reported in most new contracts or extensions are often in the most favorable possible light for the player and the agent. As details of these new contracts become known, the overall money is often less than the original report. This happens for a lot of different reasons. The most common, and least egregious, is simple rounding. If a deal is for $29.4 million, it will often get rounded off to $30 million.

Sometimes, the reports include all possible money the player can earn. So, let’s say a deal is for $45 million, but there are $5 million in incentives, it will regularly be reported as a $50 million deal.

In the NBA, contracts regularly include an option on the final season. Sometimes, NBA deals include partial or non-guaranteed season. So, while a report may be that a deal is for $100 million over four years, there may be a team option on the final season. Or the final two years may be only partially guaranteed.

One great example of this is Chris Paul’s current deal. It was reported as a four-year, $120 million contract. But Paul’s deal only originally had $75 million in guaranteed salary.

Getting back to Jaylen Brown’s new deal…

The reporting was at best inaccurate and at worst irresponsible. Yes, Brown’s extension could be for a maximum of $304 million, but that isn’t in line with the current projection. Sure, $288 million is basically the same, especially considering the relative Monopoly type of money we’re talking about here. But it was that mystical $300 million barrier that has issues.

Time and time again, it was reported that Brown signed the first $300-million deal in the NBA, and one of the few deals in the big four US sports (Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge in MLB and Patrick Mahomes in the NFL) to have crossed the $300-million barrier. The first-year salary of $52.4 million would be the largest first-year salary in the NBA, NFL, MLB or NHL by a decent margin.

And it was those figures that have been endlessly spouted off about by talking heads across sports media. In addition, it’s those figures that fans, and some players, have attached to.

Now, are $288 million and $49.7 million really all that different? Not really. But they aren’t $300 million and $50 million. We gravitate toward large, round numbers. They are easy to remember and discuss.

Lastly: Who is to blame here? No one, really. This is really just another data point in the whole “Be careful of the initial numbers!” warning that we so often issue at this time of year. In this case, because it’s the first deal to approach (and possibly even cross!) both the $300 million and $50 million marks, it got an outsized amount of attention.

The Timing

This isn’t about Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics taking three weeks to get to this deal, even if that was a bit odd. There’s only so much that can be negotiated in these types of deals, and Brown and Brown seem to have haggled over some stuff that took about three weeks to sort out.

This is about the timing of Brown inking the richest contract in NBA history. And that’s really all it was: timing.

Jaylen Brown is a wonderfully talented player and he’s earned every penny of his new contract. He made All-NBA last season and he’s an established All-Star level guy. He’s a top-20 to top-25 player in the NBA.

But he’s not a top-5 to top-10 player in the league. And therein lies the rub. Should a non-top-10 player be getting the largest contract in league history?

Doesn’t matter.

It’s all about timing, with a smidgen of circumstance.

Jaylen Brown qualified for the Designated Veteran Extension. The NBA has never been in better shape financially. Boston couldn’t afford to lose Brown.

Add it all up, and Brown gets the richest contract in NBA history because he was eligible for it right now.

That’s really all it is. Next summer, or later this summer/fall in an extension, someone like Anthony Davis or Kawhi Leonard is going to get a massive deal, and possibly one that’s even bigger than Brown’s. And then the next season, their deal will get knocked off by whatever Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum sign for. And then, and then, and then.

There was far too much focus on “Jaylen Brown shouldn’t be getting the biggest deal in NBA history!” with far too little focus on “This is just how NBA contracts work timing-wise.”

The Contract Part 2

This is a quick one, but an important one.

Brown is signing for 35% of the 2024-25 salary cap. That currently projects to $49.7 million. From there, Brown will get 8% raises.

There seems to be somewhat of a perception that Brown will get 35% of the cap every season. Not only is that not the case, but cap growth is projected to go up the maximum of 10% over the life of Brown’s deal. That means the cap will outpace Brown’s raises. In fact, after the 35% of the cap in the first year, Brown’s contract over Years 2-4 projects to be 34.4%, 33.6%, 32.6% and 31.6% of the cap.

The Impact on the Celtics

Brown’s now locked in under contract for the next five years. It’s the NBA, so we all know that is Brown or Boston decide in a year or two that things aren’t going as they want, a trade or trade request will come. At that point, both sides will go their separate ways. But for now, they are connected for more than a half-decade.

This is a good point to pause and remind everyone that Brown and Boston are linked for at least a year. When a player signs a Designated Veteran Extension as Brown did, that comes with a one-year trade restriction. Given how late in July Brown signed his extension, that means he can’t be traded until July 26, 2024. That’ll be long after most of free agency is complete, so Brown and Boston are probably together for the next two season, at least.

We’re going to assume that the Celtics will also ink Jayson Tatum to a Designated Veteran Extension too. And Boston already extended Kristaps Porzingis.

This season and next, the Celtics will be dancing around the second tax apron, and deep into the tax itself.

At the start of the 2025-26 season, Boston is likely to have at least $154.5 million on the books for Brown, Tatum, Porzingis, Robert Williams and Jordan Walsh. That’s almost at what projects to be a salary cap of $156 million for that season. For five players. And that’s before factoring in any kind of extensions or new contract for players like Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon or anyone else acquire in the next two years.

Essentially, Boston is capped out for the foreseeable future, and likely to be above the tax too. The Celtics core is good. Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, White and Williams are good enough to win a title, if they have enough help.

It’s on Brad Stevens and the front office to find that help. And they’re going to have to win on the margins for the next several years. Veteran Minimum players are going to have to hit. Draft Picks are going to be crucial. And doing well in any future trades is imperative. The ability to add to this roster outside of those means are going to be mostly non-existent.

The Impact on the rest of the NBA

This one is also going to be quick.

There really isn’t one. Unless things go really, really poorly for Boston and Brown.

Extensions and trades are how most big business is getting done in the NBA these days. Free agency delivers a few big moves here and there, but for the most part, players are taking money early via extensions. And then trades are how teams make their major additions and subtractions.

As we covered previously, Brown signed the largest deal in the NBA…for now. That’ll quickly get replaced with a new largest deal in the NBA.

Where this could impact teams and players is if Brown doesn’t come even close to living up to the deal. Let’s say he’s simply good for the life of this contract, but not an All-Star and never again All-NBA. That would be a huge loss for Boston. He’s being paid as an All-Star, at the minimum, and as an All-NBA guy, at the top-end.

If Brown doesn’t live up to the deal, the next team in this spot could pause and not be so willing to commit. You’re putting yourself in tax and second apron hell for years by having two players combining for roughly 2/3 of the cap. And building a contender that way is a tricky line to walk.

The reality is, few teams will be in this spot. Not many are sitting on two All-NBA level guys heading into their peak years. And when you have an All-NBA level guy, you pay him.

The NUMBERS 

We’re capitalizing NUMBERS here, because whether you use $300 million and $52.4 million or $288 million and $49.7 million, those are massive salaries. We all get that.

But that lacks context.

On each of our NBA salary pages on Spotrac, we added “% of cap” to the salary numbers. NBA max deals use caps of 25%, 30% or 35% in first-year salary, pending years or service, or qualifying for Designated Player status.

From there, as covered in The Contract Part 2 above, the cap projects to outpace the raises a player can get. It’s important to understand that percentage of the cap is how we’re thinking about NBA deals now, vs just focusing on the number.

We’re not that far off from the NBA salary cap reaching above $200 million in a single season. At the current projected growth, we’ll get there by the 2028-29 season. When we do, the maximum salary for a player with 10-plus years or service or for a Designated Veteran Player will be $72.7 million.

$72.7 million in first-year salary and $422 million over a five-year max deal. The final salary in that contract? $96 million. Nearly $100 million for a single season. Whew boy!

But you know what? That $72.7 million is 35% of the cap in 2028-29. Same as Jaylen Brown getting $49.7 million in 2024-25. Same as it was when Russell Westbrook signed his Designated Veteran Extension with the Oklahoma City Thunder for $35.6 million of the $101,869,000 cap in 2018.

Stop focusing on the NUMBERS. They’re already big and only getting bigger by the year. Reframe your thinking to percentage of the cap and everything starts to look a lot more in context.

 

Scott AllenJuly 20, 2023

Following up with most recent NBA Next Podcast episode, here are some of the numbers and data referenced:

Future Cash Allocations By Team

As of this post, NBA teams are set to “spend” a combined total of $14.46 billion in total cash for the foreseeable future. These include any guaranteed, non-guaranteed or options that could be paid out by teams. Obviously, this is a fluid situation and with a potential Jaylen Brown extension or Damian Lillard/James Harden trade the team allocations will continue to shift. 

 

Rank

Team

Future Cash

1

PHX

$780,692,631

2

MIN

$754,046,580

3

MEM

$723,860,336

4

DEN

$667,607,741

5

POR

$667,281,975

6

ATL

$596,371,415

7

GSW

$563,116,444

8

CLE

$553,437,865

9

NOP

$527,292,917

10

MIA

$523,264,256

11

SAC

$522,361,693

12

DAL

$521,968,830

13

OKC

$480,119,215

14

CHA

$476,858,102

15

MIL

$475,019,287

16

HOU

$473,176,816

17

IND

$456,118,956

18

NYK

$436,751,297

19

CHI

$426,343,458

20

WAS

$402,405,520

21

LAL

$402,326,546

22

BOS

$396,168,076

23

LAC

$376,705,866

24

PHI

$372,122,963

25

BKN

$368,899,099

26

UTA

$339,087,430

27

DET

$306,645,095

28

TOR

$296,127,212

29

SAS

$292,766,125

30

ORL

$281,893,008

   

$14,460,836,754

 

Highest Earnings Players

A quick look at the top player earnings over the last five years versus potential earnings from 2023-24 season and forward.

Last 5 Years (2018-2022) 

  1. Stephen Curry, $212,031,769

  2. LeBron James, $197,966,106

  3. Paul George, $178,791,289

  4. Chris Paul, $172,312,791

  5. Damian Lillard: $169,381,710

  6. Kawhi Leonard, $167,011,305

  7. Kevin Durant, $164,714,648

  8. Klay Thompson, $163,626,510

  9. Russell Westbrook, $158,112,176

  10. Giannis Antetokounmpo, $157,750,311

 

Future Years (2023+) 

  1. Nikola Jokic, $276,122,630

  2. Devin Booker, $270,589,000

  3. Karl-Anthony Towns, $270,589,000

  4. Anthony Edwards, $219,434,817

  5. LaMelo Ball, $216,800,635

  6. Damian Lillard, $216,201,799

  7. Joel Embiid, $213,280,928

  8. Tyrese Haliburton, $211,708,435

  9. Bradley Beal, $207,740,400

  10. Domantas Sabonis, $203,616,000

 

Career Earnings Thru 2028-29

Take this with a grain of salt because the earnings list is the most fluid because of signings, trades and waivers, but here is a snapshot of what the current top-10 career earnings would look like through the 2028-29 season (View Full List). 

 

  1. LeBron James, $530,882,395

  2. Kevin Durant, $499,843,653

  3. Stephen Curry, $470,090,010

  4. Damian Lillard, $449,910,157

  5. Bradley Beal, $428,874,362

  6. Nikola Jokic, $426,640,075

  7. Chris Paul, $419,909,419

  8. Karl-Anthony Towns, $416,840,523

  9. Devin Booker, $401,105,653

  10. Joel Embiid, $380,102,965

 

For context, we referenced the potential 2028-29 maximum salaries based on a $207,902,000 salary cap and a player with 10+ years of experience that could sign at 35% of the cap (with 8% raises) could sign around a 5 year $422 million contract. 

Year 1: $72,765,700

Year 2: $78,586,956

Year 3: $84,408,212

Year 4: $90,229,468

Year 5: $96,050,724

Total: $422,041,060

 

Recent NBA Next Podcast referencing Future Maximum Salaries: listen now

 

Keith SmithJuly 19, 2023

The NBA offseason is just about wrapped up. As of this writing, we’re still waiting on trades for Damian Lillard, James Harden and maybe Pascal Siakam. There are a handful of impact free agents left on the board, but every team has used almost all of their meaningful cap space. There are lots of exceptions left, but it seems as though teams are in wait-and-see mode, as the calendar moves through mid-July.

That means it’s time to reset where each roster stands. We’re going to look at who is returning, who was acquired and who has departed. We’ll also answer a few key questions about each team.

We covered the Atlantic Division already. Next up: The Pacific Division!

Golden State Warriors

Players Returning (8):

 Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins

Players Added (5): 

Trayce Jackson-Davis, Cory Joseph, Chris Paul, Brandin Podziemski, Dario Saric

Players Lost (9): 

Patrick Baldwin Jr., Donte DiVincenzo, JaMychal Green, Andre Iguodala, Ty Jerome (two-way), Anthony Lamb, Jordan Poole, Lester Quinones (two-way), Ryan Rollins

Roster Openings: 

2 standard spots and 3 two-way spots.

Cap/Tax Status: 

Golden State is $25.5 million over the second tax apron.

Spending Power Remaining: 

The Warriors are far over the super tax line and can only offer minimum contracts to free agents.

Biggest Move of the Summer: 

Re-signing Draymond Green. Yes, the Jordan Poole for Chris Paul trade was a big one, but it’s not on the level of keeping Green in the fold. Green is the key to the Warriors defense, and an important player for the offense because of his facilitation skills. The Warriors had to keep him. It also signals that the core has enough left to keep competing for titles.

As for the Paul trade, it was at least as much about shedding long-term money for Poole as it was about acquiring Paul. The role for the veteran Point God is unclear, and the fit is a little messy. We’ll see how that all plays out.

Work To Do: 

The Warriors need to fill out their roster. They added a nice piece in the frontcourt with Dario Saric, but the big man rotation could use another guy. And Golden State could use another bench shooter, unless they think Moses Moody is ready for a bigger role, or rookie Brandin Podziemski is ready to play from the ump.

Keep an eye on Chris Paul too. His deal is pretty tradable, as it’s basically a $30 million expiring contract (the 2024-25 season is non-guaranteed). Golden State is pretty limited in what else they can do, so having Paul as a living $30 million trade exception could end up just as valuable as what he could do on the court.

The Warriors also need to fill out their two-way spots. Lester Quinones is a good bet to return, as the team remains high on him. Golden State has also done a nice job in recent years with developing players and getting them to the main roster. Don’t bet against that happening again with whoever they bring in on two-way deals this summer.

LA Clippers

Players Returning (15): 

Nicolas Batum, Brandon Boston Jr., Amir Coffey, Robert Covington, Moussa Diabate (two-way), Paul George, Bones Hyland, Kawhi Leonard, Terance Mann, Marcus Morris Sr., Mason Plumlee, Norman Powell, Jason Preston, Russell Westbrook, Ivica Zubac

Players Added (2): 

Kobe Brown, Kenyon Martin Jr.

Players Lost (2): 

Eric Gordon, Xavier Moon (two-way)

Roster Openings: 

2 two-way spots.

Cap/Tax Status: 

The Clippers are $11.3 million over the second tax apron.

Spending Power Remaining: 

LA can only offer minimum contracts, due to being over the second apron.

Biggest Move of the Summer: 

Re-signing Russell Westbrook. After joining the Clippers during buyout season, Westbrook played really well. LA had very little at the point guard position, so bringing back Westbrook for $7.8 million over the next two seasons is a good value signing.

The Clippers snagged Kenyon Martin Jr. for a second-round pick and draft rights to a player who will likely never come to the NBA. Given they needed to inject some athleticism into an older roster and ground-bound frontcourt, this was a steal for LA.

Re-signing Mason Plumlee was also a smart move by LA. He combines with Ivica Zubac to give Ty Lue 48 minutes of solid center play. Plumlee is also a smart passer who knows to keep the ball moving to the team’s stars.

Work To Do: 

Should they trade for James Harden? That’s the question the Clippers front office has to be asking themselves. It’s clear Harden wants to go to the Clippers. LA has the ability to match salary in a trade without surrendering any key rotation players. But it would sap some of the team’s depth, and given the past injury histories of the main players, the Clippers can’t have enough depth.

Beyond that, there’s not a lot left for LA to do. The Clippers are returning more players from a season ago than any other team in the NBA. They need to waive or trade a player from a standard deal. And the Clippers have a couple of two-way spots to fill. This roster is pretty well finished, minus a Harden trade.

Los Angeles Lakers

Players Returning (8): 

Max Christie, Anthony Davis, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, Cole Swider (two-way), Jarred Vanderbilt

Players Added (8): 

Colin Castleton (two-way), Jaxson Hayes, D’Moi Hodge (two-way), Jalen Hood-Schifino, Maxwell Lewis, Taurean Prince, Cameron Reddish, Gabe Vincent

Players Lost (9): 

Mo Bamba, Malik Beasley, Troy Brown Jr., Wenyen Gabriel, Shaq Harrison, Scotty Pippen Jr., Dennis Schroder, Tristan Thompson, Lonnie Walker IV

Roster Openings: 

2 standard spots.

Cap/Tax Status: 

Los Angeles is $1.4 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining: 

The Lakers have $1.9 million of the Non-Taxpayer MLE remaining, but are functionally limited to veteran minimum contracts, which pay just over $2 million for next season.

Biggest Move of the Summer: 

Re-signing Austin Reaves. The Lakers re-signed all of their most important free agents, but Reaves was the most most-important player of that group. He’s blossomed into a multi-faceted offensive player, who is equally productive starting or coming off the bench. Reaves also didn’t get the massive $100 million offer sheet that was projected by many. That meant the Lakers got him on a four-year deal for right around the Non-Taxpayer MLE. That’s a great value.

Los Angeles also did well to get Rui Hachimura and D’Angelo Russell back on solid deals. They are both important rotation players. And adding Gabe Vincent for the actual Non-Taxpayer MLE was a good value signing for the Lakers too.

Work To Do: 

Los Angeles will likely fill their 14th roster spot ahead of training camp. They’ll bring in camp guys, but may choose to leave the 15th spot open. That could make it easier to convert a two-way player (keep and eye on Colin Castleton, who was terrific in Summer League) or to sign a veteran player in-season.

Overall, the Lakers roster is far deeper than at this point a year ago. And it makes sense with good positional balance. They probably need to add one more rotation-level big, just to make sure they don’t overtax Anthony Davis, and for when he inevitable misses some games. But this roster is deep and balanced.

Phoenix Suns

Players Returning (7): 

Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Damion Lee, Saben Lee (two-way), Josh Okogie, Ishmail Wainright

Players Added (9): 

Keita Bates-Diop, Bradley Beal, Bol Bol, Toumani Camara, Drew Eubanks, Jordan Goodwin, Eric Gordon, Chimezie Metu, Yuta Watanabe

Players Lost (9): 

Darius Bazley, Bismack Biyombo, Torrey Craig, Jock Landale, Chris Paul, Cameron Payne, Terrence Ross, Landry Shamet, T.J. Warren

Roster Openings: 

2 two-way spots.

Cap/Tax Status: 

The Suns are $4.7 million over the second tax apron.

Spending Power Remaining: 

Phoenix can only sign players to minimum contracts, due to being over the second apron.

Biggest Move of the Summer: 

Trading Chris Paul for Bradley Beal. This was the Suns all-in move. Beal isn’t a perfect fit, as he overlaps quite a bit with Devin Booker, but he should be just fine for Phoenix. Adding Beal took on a lot of long-term money, and put the Suns in a position to be one of the more expensive teams in the NBA for at least the next few years.

Because Beal, Booker and Kevin Durant have all played alongside other superstars for most of their careers, they should be able to make this work as a trio. The bigger concern: Who is going to make sure Deandre Ayton gets enough touches to stay engaged?

Work To Do: 

Phoenix’s roster is probably about set for the regular season, minus a couple of two-way signings. It seems as though the Suns intend to keep Deandre Ayton. James Jones and the front office did a wonderful job filling out the roster with impact players, despite only have minimum contracts to work with. They added depth and balance behind the star-studded starting lineup.

Now, it’s up to Frank Vogel to turn this collection of players into a team. It’s likely to be a little bumpy early on, but there’s enough talent here that the Suns should eventually be a terrific team.

Sacramento Kings

Players Returning (11): 

Harrison Barnes, Kessler Edwards, Keon Ellis (two-way), De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Alex Len, Trey Lyles, Davion Mitchell, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis

Players Added (5): 

Chris Duarte, Colby Jones, Nerlens Noel, Jalen Slawson (two-way), Sasha Vezenkov

Players Lost (6): 

Terence Davis, Matthew Dellavedova, P.J. Dozier, Richaun Holmes, Chimezie Metu, Neemias Queta (two-way)

Roster Openings: 

1 standard spot and 1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status: 

The Kings are $21.6 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining: 

Sacramento has about $1.4 million remaining of the Room Exception. Beyond that, it’s minimum contracts for the Kings.

Biggest Move of the Summer: 

Renegotiating-and-extending Domantas Sabonis. It was a busy summer of retaining talent for Sacramento, but getting Sabonis signed long-term was their best move. He’s become an All-Star center, and made All-NBA last year. He’s a perfect pairing with De’Aaron Fox as the co-engines that make the Kings offense hum. Creating and using cap space to keep Sabonis around was creative and smart by Monte McNair and his front office staff.

Extending Harrison Barnes for a second time, along with re-signing Trey Lyles were also great moves. And finally brining Sasha Vezenkov over, six years after drafting him, seems like a really solid move too. He’ll be a rotation guy from Day 1.

Lastly, keep an eye on Chris Duarte. He went through a mess of a season with injuries, and he got lost in the shuffle in a crowded wing group in Indiana. He can play and the bet here is that he ends up a key guy off the bench for the Kings.

Work To Do:

Sacramento has a couple of roster spots to fill. They could maybe use one more point guard, as a break-glass type of player. But the frontcourt and wing groups seems pretty fleshed out.

It’s not an immediate thing, but the Kings are well clear of the luxury tax. That should give them the flexibility to take on money during any in-season dealings. But that’s something that will make itself known as the season goes along.

Sacramento is talented and deep. That’s a combination that should make it so that last season’s playoff appearance started a new streak vs being a one-year blip.

 

Keith SmithJuly 17, 2023

The NBA offseason is just about wrapped up. As of this writing, we’re still waiting on trades for Damian Lillard, James Harden and maybe Pascal Siakam. There are a handful of impact free agents left on the board, but every team has used almost all of their meaningful cap space. There are lots of exceptions left, but it seems as though teams are in wait-and-see mode, as the calendar moves through mid-July.

That means it’s time to reset where each roster stands. We’re going to look at who is returning, who was acquired and who has departed. We’ll also answer a few key questions about each team.

First up: The Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics

Players Returning (11): 

Malcolm Brogdon, Jaylen Brown, Justin Champagnie, J.D. Davison (two-way), Sam Hauser, Al Horford, Luke Kornet, Payton Pritchard, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, Robert Williams

Players Added (5): 

Dalano Banton, Oshae Brissett, Kristaps Porzingis, Jay Scrubb (two-way), Jordan Walsh

Players Lost (6): 

Danilo Gallinari, Blake Griffin, Mfiondu Kabengele (two-way), Mike Muscala, Marcus Smart, Grant Williams

Roster Openings: 

1 standard spot and 1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status: 

The Celtics are $2.3 million under the second tax apron.

Spending Power Remaining: 

Boston has the $5 million Taxpayer MLE, but they’d need to clear over $2.7 million in salary to use it in order to stay under the second apron. Teams are hard-capped at the second apron if they use the Taxpayer MLE under the new CBA.

Biggest Move of the Summer:

 Trading Marcus Smart (and others) in a deal to land Kristaps Porzingis. Boston went big, literally and figuratively, this summer by trading Smart for Porzingis. The Celtics are betting that Porzingis will stay healthy and will give the team another offensive weapon, along with some rim protection. Boston’s mounting payroll also played a part in Grant Williams leaving for the Dallas Mavericks via sign-and-trade. That’s a lot of toughness, versatility and defense out the door for the Celtics this summer.

Work To Do: 

Boston needs to get Jaylen Brown signed to an extension. He’s eligible for the super max, and all parties involved continue to say it’ll get done, but it’s been nearly three weeks and nothing is signed yet. That’s something to monitor.

Beyond extending Brown, Boston has to figure out if they are going to trade Malcolm Brogdon or not. He was originally supposed to be part of the deal for Porzingis, but the LA Clippers balked at Brogdon’s health and Brad Stevens pivoted to trading Marcus Smart. Now, the Celtics need to repair their relationship with Brogdon and get him healthy for this upcoming season. Or Boston needs to find another deal for the reigning Sixth Man of the Year before the season starts.

The Celtics will also fill out their roster by adding a 15th player on a standard deal and by filling their third two-way spot. That’s in addition to bringing a few players to training camp, with eyes on getting them to play for Maine in the G League this season.

Brooklyn Nets

Players Returning (10): 

Mikal Bridges, Nicolas Claxton, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, RaiQuan Gray (two-way), Cameron Johnson, Royce O’Neale, Day’Ron Sharpe, Ben Simmons, Cam Thomas

Players Added (6): 

Darius Bazley, Noah Clowney, Dennis Smith Jr., Lonnie Walker IV, Dariq Whitehead, Jalen Wilson (two-way)

Players Lost (7): 

Seth Curry, David Duke Jr., Joe Harris, Patty Mills, Dru Smith (two-way), Edmond Sumner, Yuta Watanabe

Roster Openings: 

1 standard spot and 1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status: 

The Nets are $10 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining: 

Brooklyn has the $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE to spend. They are $12 million clear of the first apron, at which they’d be hard-capped if they used the NTMLE. That means to use the entire thing, they’d need to clear a little more space.

Biggest Move of the Summer: 

Re-signing Cam Johnson. Brooklyn sees Johnson as an important part of their core, alongside Mikal Bridges. Getting him inked to a fair value deal with $94.5 million guaranteed over four years is huge. Brooklyn also got good value with minimum signings in Lonnie Walker IV and Dennis Smith Jr., as well as intriguing draft picks in Noah Clowney and Dariq Whitehead.

Work To Do: 

The Nets are perhaps a bit light on shooting after trading Joe Harris and Patty Mills in salary-shedding deal, and losing Seth Curry in free agency. Lonnie Walker will help fill that void to some extent, but one more shooter would be nice.

Brooklyn could also use another experienced big to play behind Nic Claxton. The Nets are relying on unproven youngsters behind Claxton. The fifth-year big man has proven himself a top defender, but Claxton can still find himself in foul trouble on occasion. A proven backup would be good to have for the Nets.

It’s not a roster move, but Brooklyn really needs to find out what they have in Ben Simmons. All reports are that he’ll be ready to go to start the season. Can he find his way back to the All-Star level he was just a few years ago? Can he at least be a productive rotation player?

The Nets will also fill out their roster with another standard signing, a third two-way player and then some camp signings.

New York Knicks

Players Returning (13): 

RJ Barrett, Jalen Brunson, Evan Fournier, Quentin Grimes, Josh Hart, Isaiah Hartenstein, DaQuan Jeffries, Miles McBride, Immanuel Quickley, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Roby, Jericho Sims

Players Added (2): 

Donte DiVincenzo, Jaylen Martin (two-way)

Players Lost (4): 

Trevor Keels (two-way), Derrick Rose, Obi Toppin, Duane Washington Jr. (two-way)

Roster Openings: 

1 standard spot and 2 two-way spots.

Cap/Tax Status: 

New York is $4.7 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining: 

The Knicks have the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception to spend, but are unlikely to do so.

Biggest Move of the Summer: 

Signing Donte DiVincenzo. The Knicks traded big for small by signing DiVincenzo and trading Obi Toppin. The rotation is very wing- and guard-heavy, but getting DiVincenzo for the MLE is good work. He’ll be a productive player and can allow New York to deal from a position of strength in any future trades.

Work To Do: 

The Knicks are still looking for an Evan Fournier trade. At this point, it seems likely they’ll keep Fournier and his $18.8 million pseudo-expiring deal (Fournier has a $19 million team option for 2024-25) in case they need to match salary in a bigger trade.

New York is still looking at potential backup power forward options. They need someone for about 10-12 minutes per game behind Julius Randle. But that player has to come in with the understanding that that’s the role. The Knicks don’t want to get caught with another player looking for a bigger role.

Beyond that, extension talks will continue with Immanuel Quickley, and the Knicks will fill out their roster with a couple more two-way signings and one more standard deal.

Philadelphia 76ers

Players Returning (11):

 Joel Embiid, James Harden, Montrezl Harrell, Tobias Harris, Danuel House Jr., Furkan Korkmaz, Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Paul Reed, Jaden Springer, P.J. Tucker

Players Added (6): 

Mo Bamba, Patrick Beverley, Ricky Council IV (two-way), Filip Petrusev, Terquavion Smith (two-way), Azuolas Tubelis (two-way)

Players Lost (6): 

Dewayne Dedmon, Louis King (two-way), Mac McClung (two-way), Jalen McDaniels, Shake Milton, Georges Niang

Roster Openings: 

1 standard spot.

Cap/Tax Status:

 Philadelphia is $2.8 million under the first tax apron.

Spending Power Remaining: 

The Sixers have the $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE, but are functionally limited to spending no more than the $5M Taxpayer MLE, due to room under the first apron/hard cap.

Biggest Move of the Summer: 

Signing Patrick Beverley…so far. In reality, nothing will top whatever happens with James Harden and the potential package Philadelphia gets for trading him. Alas, we wait…

Work To Do: 

As referenced above, the 76ers need to find a James Harden trade. They’ve done some moves while waiting for that deal to develop, but this roster has a very unfinished feel to it. Patrick Beverley is a nice addition, no matter if Harden is on the team or not. Mo Bamba is fine, as is re-signing Montrezl Harrell. But the Sixers have a lot of bigs now and the wing and the backcourt feel a bit thin.

Nothing else of substance is likely to happen until Harden is dealt. That’s likely to be at least a 2-for-1, if not a 3-for-1 or 4-for-2 type of deal. Because of the likelihood of an unbalanced trade, Philadelphia has to somewhat conserve roster spots. You don’t want to pitch a free agent on joining you team, then not have a roster spot for them when the regular season starts.

Toronto Raptors

Players Returning (12): 

Precious Achiuwa, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Chris Boucher, Malachi Flynn, Christian Koloko, Jakob Poeltl, Otto Porter Jr., Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr., Joe Wieskamp, Thaddeus Young

Players Added (4): 

Gradey Dick, Jalen McDaniels, Markquis Nowell (two-way), Dennis Schroder

Players Lost (5): 

Dalano Banton, Will Barton, Jeff Dowtin, Ron Harper Jr., Fred VanVleet

Roster Openings: 

2 two-way spots.

Cap/Tax Status: 

The Raptors are is $3.3 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining: 

Toronto has only veteran minimum contracts to offer.

Biggest Move of the Summer: 

Re-signing Jakob Poeltl. Toronto got a nice deal on Poeltl, as they re-signed him for $78 million guaranteed over four seasons. That’s a very good value for a starting center. The Raptors also got Jalen McDaniels for a relative bargain of $9.3 million over two seasons via the Bi-Annual Exception. And Dennis Schroder was a nice addition for $25.4 million over two seasons via the Non-Taxpayer MLE. Gradey Dick was also a solid value pick in the middle of the first round of the draft.

Work To Do: 

Toronto’s roster remains very unbalanced. They have approximately 87 forwards, a few centers and two guards. OK…maybe it’s not quite that drastic, but the Raptors remain very heavy in forwards and light in the backcourt. You have to assume that eventually a trade will come to balance things out a bit, otherwise Dennis Schroder is going to have to carry a very heavy load at point guard, unless Malachi Flynn makes a major leap in his fourth season.

Rumors continue to bubble to the surface about Pascal Siakam trade interest. It feels like Toronto has hit a breaking point to extend Siakam or trade him. Letting things play out seems unnecessarily risky. OG Anunoby is in only slightly less of an uncertain position, given his player option for the 2024-25 season.

Fred VanVleet is gone. Siakam and/or Anunoby could be next. Toronto has the pieces in place to be a playoff team, but the possibility of trades given the unbalanced roster still loom over this team. After years of being rock solid, it feels like everything is built on an increasingly shaky foundation. Eventually, this needs to be torn down or reinforced, with the former seeming the more likely path than the latter.

 

Keith SmithJuly 14, 2023

Longtime readers of mine (back to my RealGM days) will know that each year that I attended NBA Summer League, I came home with an overflowing notebook of items from talking to people around the NBA. These can be notes about players, teams, the league as whole or really anything related to the NBA.

Summer League is a very relaxed environment. The draft is done, free agency is largely done (especially this year!) and NBA folks are chatty. It’s also probably the most optimistic time of the NBA calendar. Everyone feels great about the work they did in the offseason and what it means for their club going forward. Admittedly paraphrasing, it’s very common to hear things like:

  • “We had him at the top of board.” (Note: This is said almost no matter what pick the team had.)

  • “The draft fell off right after pick X.” (Note: This is at whatever pick the team had, traded up to, or the pick after a pick they traded out of.)

  • “We were lucky he wanted to sign with us.” (Note: Said about almost every free agent signee.)

  • “We feel good about what we did, given our limited resources this summer.” (Note: Said by teams with cap space, teams without cap space, teams that only had veteran minimum deals to offer and teams that had multiple draft picks.)

With that in mind, the vast majority of the quotes about players and teams will be positive ones. But that’s ok! Who can’t use a little more positivity in their life?

A few more notes:

  • All quotes are anonymous. Each one came from NBA team personnel (generally a front office executive, coach or assistant coach). In exchange for anonymity, you often get candidness.

  • Anything that is an opinion from myself will be noted as such with “Opinion: …”.

  • In the vast majority of cases, these notes and thoughts were collected through Tuesday, July 11. A handful of times, folks followed up after the fact with further thoughts, but most were collected while I was on the ground in Las Vegas.

You can read Part 1, which were general NBA comments here and Part 2, which were notes from the Eastern Conference teams here.

Western Conference

Dallas Mavericks

  • “Re-signing Kyrie Irving was priority number one. Adding depth to our frontcourt was probably next on the list. And adding some young talent that fit with Kyrie and Luka (Doncic) was also high on the priority list. We feel like we accomplished all of those goals, even if there is still work to be done.”

  • “Grant (Williams) is going to help replace what we lost in Dorian Finney-Smith. He can shoot and defend, and we need guys like that. We’re also excited about his ability as a passer too. That’s something our other bigs don’t really do, so it adds a new dimension to our offense.”

  • “The kids (Dereck Lively II and Olivier-Maxence Prosper) are the kind of defense-first guys we need right now. They’ll get their minutes by defending. From there, the offense will come, especially as Luka (Doncic) and Kyrie (Irving) begin to trust them.”

  • Opinion: It’s a shame that the Matisse Thybulle offer sheet didn’t work for Dallas. He would have been a good fit for the Mavericks. Wing depth still seems to be lacking a bit for this team.

Denver Nuggets

  • “Does it feel like to you that some people have already forgotten that we’re the champs? That’s how it feels sometimes, because everyone is talking about all the other teams. But that’s ok. Keep sleeping on us!”

  • “Christian (Braun) is going to take a big step forward this year. Last season, everything was on instinct until we got to about March or so. This year, he’ll be better prepared to play right out of the gate. We’re excited to watch him grow in a bigger role.”

  • “We feel like we nailed our draft class. Julian Strawther is this year’s project. We’re excited about what he can become. Jalen Pickett could contribute right away in the backcourt. And Hunter Tyson knows how to play. Those three, combined with Christian Braun and Peyton Watson, and we have five potential rotation guys out of the last three drafts. That’s huge with our top-end payroll.”

  • “We haven’t given up on Zeke Nnaji being a rotation guy. He has to stay healthy though. If he can, there is still a chance he grabs a role in the frontcourt rotation.”

Golden State Warriors

  • “It was the only decision to re-sign Draymond (Green). We were never going to break up the core. They’ve had too much success and we won the title two seasons ago. Why would we move off that group now?”

  • “We’re aware that Jonathan (Kuminga) wants to play more. The chance will be there for him this season. We need him to be ready for a full rotation role in our frontcourt.”

  • “Brandin (Podziemski) hasn’t shot it well, but he’s done everything else. He’s a smart, tough, versatile player. It may take a year, but he’ll be a rotation guy for us eventually.”

  • “Both Lester (Quinones) and Gui (Santos) have been our best guys in both Summer Leagues. Lester is probably better than his two-way status, but we’ll see if there is room. Gui could benefit from a step up in league. I think eventually both will find their way on our roster at some point.”

Houston Rockets

  • “We set a goal this summer to improve our roster and rebalance things. We felt like we were a little too young. Nine first-round picks over three seasons is a lot. We made it a goal to come away with veteran players who can lift and enhance our young guys. We feel like we accomplished that goal.”

  • “Jabari Smith has been working non-stop. Part of the process with changing the coaching staff and roster was to make sure we could get Jabari to a place where he can be his most successful. It’s important that we get him touches, and quality touches, at that. He’s going to be a star in our league, but it’s up to us to help get him there.”

  • “Amen Thompson didn’t get a chance to show it for too long out here, but you saw a glimpse that he can do it all. We’re going to keep it simple for him early on. Let his natural instincts take charge first. But we have a plan to add more and more to his plate as the season goes along. He’ll be fine with the injury too. Not something we’re worried about long-term.”

  • “When Cam Whitmore was falling in the draft, we considered trading up. Eventually, it became clear he’d get to us. Once that happened, we felt like we had won some sort of second lottery. He’s such a powerful player at a young age. He’s going to fit in our forward group just fine. Him, Jabari (Smith) and Tari (Eason) is as good a young group of forwards as any team in the NBA has.”

  • “Fred (VanVleet) is going to be so great for us as an organizer. He’ll enhance Jalen (Green), Jabari (Smith) and Kevin (Porter Jr.) in a big way. Some think Fred and Dillon (Brooks) are going to take reps away from the kids, but we don’t see it that way. They are going to help those guys grow up quicker than they would have otherwise. Same with Jeff Green. We’re excited about getting them in the gym with the young guys.”

LA Clippers

  • “We felt like we found a nice groove after we added Russell (Westbrook) and Mason (Plumlee). So, it was important to us to bring them back. They are both great fits with our roster and how we hope to play.”

  • “Kobe (Brown) hasn’t shot it well yet, but that will come. He’s rebounding and playing defense. That’s enough for now. Having another big wing is never a bad thing.”

  • “Look, I hate to talk bad about any other team, and everyone makes deals for their own reasons, but we stole K.J. Martin. He’s going to add a whole new level of athleticism to our frontcourt. Our vets are going to love playing with him and he’ll change the energy in games for us. Just a straight up robbery to get him on our roster.”

  • “I can’t comment on any ongoing trade discussions, but we’re always looking to get better. If the right deal comes our way, it’s something we’ll look at. We feel like our title contention window is right now, so we’re always looking to add talented players in support of that goal.”

Los Angeles Lakers

  • “Getting Austin Reaves signed was our top priority. Was there a worry we’d have to match an offer sheet? Absolutely. He’s a good player and he could fit on any team. But we were prepared to match any kind of offers Austin got. We weren’t going to lose him over money.”

  • “We’re very happy with how our offseason went. We added a point guard, a forward, a wing and a big man. The two players we drafted (Jalen Hood-Schifino and Maxwell Lewis) are guys we targeted in our draft range. And we re-signed all of our important contributors. We feel great about that.”

  • “The player I’m most excited about that we added is Jaxson Hayes. He’s shown flashes of being a real player. We have minutes available in the frontcourt. My hope is that he’s ready to take them.”

  • Opinion: Keep an eye on Colin Castleton. He has nice touch and rebounding and blocking shots at a pretty good rate. After a little G League time, he could be the next guy to step into a rotation spot for the Lakers.

Memphis Grizzlies

  • “Marcus Smart is perfect for everything we want to be. We want our players to be tough, versatile, intelligent and to sacrifice for the team. And they have to represent what we want Grizzlies to be and to do right by Memphis. Marcus is going to teach some of our young guys how to win in ways they haven’t quite figured out yet. We couldn’t be happier to have him.”

  • “Our roster was getting a little overstuffed. It probably still is, to be completely honest. There could be another trade or two where we consolidate a little bit. But there aren’t any glaring needs we’re desperately trying to fill. If something becomes available, then we’ll look at it.”

  • “Locking up Desmond (Bane) was our primary objective this offseason. We now have our entire core under long-term deals. And they are all 25 and under. How many other good teams can say that?”

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • “We traded up to get Leonard Miller as a targeted player at the draft. We weren’t sure how the rest of the summer would go, but we knew getting him would mean we did alright. He’s a first-round talent. Once he fills out and adds strength, we’ll have another big to throw into the mix in our frontcourt.”

  • “Re-signing Nickeil (Alexander-Walker) is something I would be lying if I said was a priority when we got him in the trade. But he proved that he can really play and can be a nice combo guard off the bench for us. We’re happy that we kept him in the fold.”

  • “One of our goals was to add another wing and to get a little more offense off the bench. Troy (Brown Jr.) and Shake (Milton) fill those needs for us. They’ll have a chance to be rotation guys right out of the gate, and that should strengthen our team in a big way.”

  • “We remain confident we can get Jaden McDaniels signed to an extension. He’s a very big part of what we want to be going forward. In my opinion, he’s the best defensive forward in the league right now. And his offensive game just keeps getting better. Of course, you keep a guy like Jaden.”

New Orleans Pelicans

  • “Let me start with saying all the noise about Zion (Williamson) not working, not liking his teammates and wanting out, it’s all nonsense. Complete garbage. Zion knows he’s made some mistakes. What 20- and 21-year-old hasn’t? But he’s a hard worker and he gets along with his teammates. It’s painful to read some of this made-up stuff that’s out there.”

  • “Jordan Hawkins is going to be a big-time scorer in our league eventually. We’re asking him to do a lot of off-the-dribble stuff out here, because this is the time to experiment. It’s been messy, but that’s fine. It’ll come eventually. He’s a little bigger than C.J. (McCollum), but C.J. is going to be an ideal mentor for Jordan, because they have somewhat similar games.”

  • “It was a risk to decline the team option for Herb (Jones), but we felt like it would work out because we’ve put time and effort into building that relationship. And now he’s got a new, big deal and we’ve got one of our most important guys signed long-term. Hard to be unhappy with that.”

  • “Just seeing E.J. (Liddell) out there and being aggressive is great. It was such a shame what happened to him last year. But he never got down. He just put the work in, and now he’s ready for his rookie season.”

  • Opinion: Dyson Daniels needs the jumper to fall, but he’s ready for a rotation spot. He’s got size, which the veteran Pelicans guards don’t really have. Daniels should be a rotation guy from Day 1.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • “It’s hard to be any more excited about Chet (Holmgren) joining our group this year. He made good use of what I call his “gap year” by watching and soaking it all in. In a weird way, he’s better prepared for how the NBA game is played. He’s going to start the season as one of the more skilled big men in the league. Not rookie big men, all big men.”

  • “Yeah, Jalen Williams didn’t need even that one Summer League game. He’s ready for a big second season.”

  • “Cason Wallace is what we want in our players. Work hard, play for your teammates and be tough. He’s got all of that. And he’s going to show he can do more than that Kentucky program and system allowed him to do. That’s always a thing with Kentucky guys, especially guards. We’re thrilled to have him.”

  • “Tre (Mann) has played terrific so far this summer. It’s been fits and starts for him in the league. But the talent is there. The challenge is that our guard group is so deep, and we added more guys to it this summer. But Tre can really play. We want to see how he takes on the challenge.”

  • Opinion: The Thunder are keenly aware that they have too many players on guaranteed contracts, and even non-guaranteed deals. The repeated comment was “Better to have too many guys who you like and can play than not enough of them.” But something is going to have to give, or some talented players are going to get cut.

Phoenix Suns

  • “We had a lot of rotation spots to fill. And we had to target specific players, because we weren’t bringing back a lot of depth. Overall, we feel as though we accomplished our goals of getting guys who will complement our starting group.”

  • “Brad (Beal) is going to be a terrific addition to our team. Is there overlap with Devin Booker? Sure. But show me the coach that says they have too much playmaking and scoring and I’ll show the first coach to ever say that. We think he might have his most efficient season ever too, because he’s not going to have to create so much for himself.”

  • “We’re committed to Deandre (Ayton). He’s going to play a key role for us this year as the backline of our defense. And we’ll make sure he gets enough touches on offense to keep him involved on that end too. It’s not just going to be him living off screens and offensive rebounds.”

  • “Toumani (Camara) might be more ready to play than we thought. Once that jumper comes around, we feel like we’ve got a steal on our hands.”

  • Opinion: The Suns did more with only veteran minimums to offer than anyone could have imagined. They made it clear that they went after specific players to fill specific needs, and they did well with that strategy.

Portland Trail Blazers

  • “I’m not going to stand here and proclaim that it’s a new era and expect trumpets to play and the sun to shine upon us, but it really is a new era. We’ve been fortunate to roll from one good group to the next over the years, and we’ve got the next good group in place already. They just need some seasoning and experience.”

  • “Scoot (Henderson) and Shaedon (Sharpe) are the guys everyone is focused on, and for good reason. They are both really great, young players. But we’ve still got Anfernee Simons and we also drafted Kris Murray. That’s four young guys we’d put up against anyone else’s.”

  • “We have a logjam of sorts at the guard and wing positions. But it’s a good problem to have. We’ll let them battle it out and it’ll sort itself out over time.”

  • “Jerami Grant’s contract isn’t a bad contract. People got downright idiotic with the things that were said and written about that deal. He’s making 20% of the cap and people acted like we gave him a max deal. No matter what direction our roster takes, that’s a good deal.”

  • Opinion: The specter of a Damian Lillard trade remains looming over the Trail Blazers. Within the first minute or two of every conversation in Las Vegas, everyone asked everyone else “What do you think will happen with Dame?” And it’s clear the organization is doing their best to move forward with the guys who will be there, as opposed to outwardly focusing on trading Lillard. But there’s only so much you can do with that, considering the stakes of trading your franchise player.

Sacramento Kings

  • “We didn’t even need to play Keegan Murray the two games he played (in Summer League), but he wanted to be out there. But that was more than enough. He’s going to be a great player and quicker than most people realize.”

  • “We have our entire core locked up for at least the next three seasons. That includes our entire starting lineup. How many teams can say that? And all of them are on value contracts too. That’s going to give us an edge moving forward.”

  • “We’re excited to work with Chris Duarte. He’s better than he showed last year. Injuries and a packed rotation in Indiana got him behind and he never caught up. We think he can back up Kevin Huerter and our forwards and be a rotation contributor. We don’t need him to be great. Just productive.”

San Antonio Spurs

  • “It’s a step too far to say our entire franchise is focused on making sure Victor Wembanyama becomes everything we think he can be, because we have other good players too. But clearly, we’re all focused on Victor. He’s a special talent and we can’t wait to add him in with all of our other guys.”

  • “We’ve still got some roster balancing to figure out. We loaded up on wings over the past few years, because we drafted guys we were high on. Over time, that will need to balance out a bit with more ballhandlers and bigs. But that will come. For now, we’re looking forward to seeing this group together.”

  • “There’s no rush to trade our veterans. We like what they can bring to a very young roster. Those guys are going to help the young guys figure out life in the NBA.”

  • Opinion: Dominick Barlow should be on a standard NBA deal. He’s got a lot of talent. Barlow played well when given chances toward the end of last season, and he’s been terrific in Summer League. It’s unclear if the Spurs will have a standard spot, so he might have to take another two-way deal, but he’s better than that.

Utah Jazz

  • “Adding John Collins was a no-brainer. He’s an outstanding talent. We feel like he got lost in the shuffle some in Atlanta. With us, we’re going to make sure he’s regularly involved and has a consistent role. We want to play big lineups, because it’s an advantage we have over most other teams. John is going to be an integral part of that strategy.”

  • “We knew going into the summer that we wanted to keep Jordan Clarkson around. At one point, we thought it would be via a standard extension. But once the board kind of fell into place, it was clear we could do the renegotiation and that would benefit both Jordan and us. He’s an organizational favorite and we’re thrilled we kept him in Utah.”

  • “Whenever you have three first-round picks, it’s going to be hard to feel like you nailed all of them, but we really did. Taylor (Hendricks) is going to be a terrific two-way player. It’s rare to find someone as skilled as he is, but that also likes to defend too. Keyonte (George) is already showing his leadership and toughness. He’s going to prove a lot of people wrong. And Brice (Sensabaugh) is going to be really good too. You add them to last year’s rookies, Walker (Kessler), Ochai (Agbaji) and Johnny (Juzang) and that’s six guys in two years. That’s how you fill out your roster while keeping a ton of cap flexibility for the future.”

 

Keith SmithJuly 14, 2023

Longtime readers of mine (back to my RealGM days) will know that each year that I attended NBA Summer League, I came home with an overflowing notebook of items from talking to people around the NBA. These can be notes about players, teams, the league as whole or really anything related to the NBA.

Summer League is a very relaxed environment. The draft is done, free agency is largely done (especially this year!) and NBA folks are chatty. It’s also probably the most optimistic time of the NBA calendar. Everyone feels great about the work they did in the offseason and what it means for their club going forward. Admittedly paraphrasing, it’s very common to hear things like:

  • “We had him at the top of board.” (Note: This is said almost no matter what pick the team had.)

  • “The draft fell off right after pick X.” (Note: This is at whatever pick the team had, traded up to, or the pick after a pick they traded out of.)

  • “We were lucky he wanted to sign with us.” (Note: Said about almost every free agent signee.)

  • “We feel good about what we did, given our limited resources this summer.” (Note: Said by teams with cap space, teams without cap space, teams that only had veteran minimum deals to offer and teams that had multiple draft picks.)

With that in mind, the vast majority of the quotes about players and teams will be positive ones. But that’s ok! Who can’t use a little more positivity in their life?

A few more notes:

  • All quotes are anonymous. Each one came from NBA team personnel (generally a front office executive, coach or assistant coach). In exchange for anonymity, you often get candidness.

  • Anything that is an opinion from myself will be noted as such with “Opinion: …”.

  • In the vast majority of cases, these notes and thoughts were collected through Tuesday, July 11. A handful of times, folks followed up after the fact with further thoughts, but most were collected while I was on the ground in Las Vegas.

You can read Part 1, which were general NBA comments here.

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks

  • “We’re incredibly excited Dejounte Murray signed his extension. Was the fit perfect last season with Trae Young? No. But you saw what it could be by the end of the year. Those guys will make it work, because they are both too good to not make it work.”

  • “It does sting to trade John Collins. He was a big part of some good teams for us. But our cap sheet made it necessary. We were carrying too much long-term salary. Everyone is going to have to make difficult decisions like this in the new CBA world.”

  • “A big year is coming for Jalen Johnson. The opportunity is there. He just needs to take it.”

  • “Kobe (Bufkin) needs to settle down a little. It’ll come for him. We’re deep, but not in ballhandlers. Kobe could find a rotation role this year.”

  • Opinion: Keep an eye on two-way player Seth Lundy. He has a nice shot and good size for a wing. Atlanta has a lot of guys in front of him, but he can play.

Boston Celtics

  • “We’re going to miss Marcus (Smart). We’re going to miss Grant (Williams). But we had to become a different kind of team. Getting KP (Kristaps Porzingis) is huge for us. Literally and figuratively. He’s going to make a massive difference for our offense. And he’s come a long way with his defense too.”

  • “Our depth took a hit for sure. We’re relying on some guys who have had injuries. But they are also terrific players, and we believe we can keep them healthy.”

  • “Jordan (Walsh) was very high on our board. We think he can play either forward spot and probably switch and cover most guards too. He needs to shoot the ball with confidence and consistency to find a spot, and we think he will.”

  • “Wanted to see J.D. (Davison) really come out here and dominate guys. He just needs more time in Maine to really develop. Shot has to improve to make it in the league.”

  • Opinion: Jay Scrubb is an NBA equivalent of an MLB 4A guy: Too good for the minors, but not quite good enough for the majors. He can really, really score. There’s an NBA spot for him, if he can defend just a little bit better.

Brooklyn Nets

  • “Getting Cam Johnson signed was big for us. He’s our guy with Mikal (Bridges) that is going to lead us forward. I don’t think anyone has seen the best of Cam yet.”

  • “Having back-to-back picks was a different experience. We felt like we had to add some size this summer, and Noah (Clowney) is that guy. We think he’ll eventually be a stretch big. With our second pick, we wanted to go upside. Dariq (Whitehead) was perfect for that. He was a top recruit for a reason. Just had a messy season. We’re really high on his potential.”

  • “Signing Lonnie Walker and Dennis Smith gives us that backcourt depth we needed. Lonnie can really score. Dennis is tough. He’s probably the best defensive guard we have on the team. (Note: It was clarified that Mikal Bridges is seen by the team as a wing.) So, we improved in two ways with those signings for our backcourt.”

  • “Things aren’t as certain as they were with KD (Kevin Durant), Kyrie (Irving) and James (Harden), but we’re excited about our future. We have a lot of flexibility moving forward and we’ve got our building blocks in place.”

  • “Ben (Simmons) is working. We’re excited about what he could bring to our team with his unique skillset.”

Charlotte Hornets

  • “Summer League was a little messy for (Brandon Miller) at times, but that’s ok. This was all about him getting his feet wet and working. We couldn’t be happier with Brandon’s work. He’s a perfect fit with our roster and what we want to be as a team.”

  • “Getting LaMelo (Ball) signed to that extension was crucial. He’s our leader and our All-Star. And he’s going to be in Charlotte for a long time.

  • “Nick (Smith Jr.) is tough. Tougher than I even thought before he got to us. He had such a messy season on that weird Arkansas team and with his injuries, that people forgot he was in the mix to be a top pick. We feel like we got a steal and that he’ll eventually be a starter in this league.”

  • “Our cap sheet cleans up a lot after this season. We can start building around our young core with a lot of pathways forward.”

Chicago Bulls

  • “Working around Lonzo Ball’s injury makes everything a little harder. We were a good team before he went down. You build a roster designed to play a certain way, around expensive players, and it becomes very hard when you lose one of those key guys. But we’re figuring it out.”

  • “Adding Jevon Carter and re-signing Coby White were big moves for us. Jevon will bring some of the defense we lost at the lead guard spot with Lonzo (Ball) out. And he can shoot too. Coby has come a long way. We think he could win Sixth Man of the Year. He’s been that good as a bench scorer.”

  • “We’re aware of the criticism about running it back. But we have good players. Are we supposed to throw in the towel? We’ll be a playoff team, barring another major injury.”

  • “Julian Phillips can do a lot of different things. We’re excited about what he brings to our roster.”

  • “It’s been disappointing to see Dalen (Terry) really struggle to shoot the ball. He can do just about everything else. But if he can’t figure out the shot, it’ll be hard to get regular rotation minutes. We have a very competitive wing and guard group.”

  • “We’re still very high on Ayo (Dosunmu). This is how restricted free agency can go sometimes. Don’t read anything into our opinion of him as a player just because he isn’t signed.”

  • Opinion: Javon Freeman-Liberty is really close to cracking an NBA roster. He’s tough, he can score and shoot and he’s improved his playmaking. Chicago’s guard depth, especially if Dosunmu re-signs, is going to make it hard for him to get through with the Bulls, however.

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • “We were a good team last year and our guys got a taste of the playoffs. We know it’s not enough to just have another good regular season. We think we addressed our weaknesses, without sacrificing any of our strengths.”

  • “Max (Strus) and Georges (Niang) are going to give us two snipers from the arc. And they’ve both played a lot of high-level playoff games. We didn’t want to add anyone who hasn’t been successful in that environment before. Both Max and Georges have.”

  • “Our Summer League group is as good as anyone’s. Sam Merrill is an NBA shooter. Emoni Bates was one of the steals of the draft. Isaiah Mobley has improved from a year ago. Craig Porter does everything. And Sharife Cooper can play at this level too. We’re also pleased with the way Luke Travers is developing. He’ll be over in the NBA eventually.”

Detroit Pistons

  • “It could have been tough for Ausar (Thompson) to fit in, because we brought real NBA guys to Vegas, but he’s already a team leader. Even in a group where other guys are talkative, you can see him stepping up and taking control. Really confident for a young guy.”

  • “Locking up Stew (Isaiah Stewart) to an extension was big for us. We love our big group. They’re going to get better by battling each other every day.”

  • “We didn’t just ‘eat’ deals for Joe Harris and Monte Morris, ok? Those guys can actually play. We’re serious about being a better team this year. We added shooting, playmaking and leadership with those two guys. They’re going to help us a lot.”

  • “Cade (Cunningham) looks good. He’s ready to go. I bet he would have loved to play out here, but we’re looking forward to seeing him with everyone else in a couple of months.”

  • “Jaden (Ivey), James (Wiseman) and Jalen (Duren) all did exactly what we wanted to see our here: They’ve looked a step or two ahead of the rest of their competition here. That’s what the expectation was, and they all delivered.”

Indiana Pacers

  • “Having Tyrese (Haliburton) locked up for years to come is a sign that we believe in him and he believes in us. He’s been great since we got him, and we have no reason to believe that will change. He’s an All-Star now and will only continue to get better.”

  • “Getting Obi Toppin was a no-brainer for us. He gives us a dimension at the forward spot that we didn’t have. We’re looking forward to seeing him on the floor with the other guys.”

  • “We haven’t made very many shots out here, but we’re asking guys to do different stuff. This is where you can play around and try things. But our guys will be good. We’re not worried about it.”

  • Opinion: Rick Carlisle has one of those “good” problems with how many guys he has. The Pacers guard and wing group has a lot of players who can play and need minutes. That’s going to take a little while to sort itself out.

Miami Heat

  • “We lost some talent, but we have faith in our ability to develop the next guys. The thing with us is that if you come to our organization and you put the work in, we’ll do everything we can to get you to the best level you can be at. That’s from the NBA through the G League and here at Summer League. It’s all about the work.”

  • “We’re thrilled to have Jaime Jaquez. He fits everything we want in a player. Versatile, hardworking, communicative and tough. That’s our kind of guy.”

  • Opinion 1: The Heat are clearly in a bit of a limbo, as they attempt to trade for Damian Lillard. It was hard to get many definitive thoughts on the roster, because it’s clear they hope the roster isn’t complete yet.

  • Opinion 2: Orlando Robinson is ready for a real NBA role. He’ll pass Thomas Bryant (who can also play) in the rotation for minutes behind Bam Adebayo.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • “We feel like injuries cheated us the last two playoffs. That’s why we brought our guys back. This is still a championship team. We want the chance to show it again with this group.”

  • “It’s hard to be a rookie on a title contender, but MarJon Beauchamp made the best of it. He was a sponge and soaked up knowledge from all of our guys. You can see here in Las Vegas that he’s at a different level now. We’re excited for a big year from him.”

  • (After being told A.J. Green is underrated): “We think so too! (laughs) We’re happy to have A.J. He can really shoot the ball. We think our depth in shooters is unmatched in the league, and that’s important to have around our key rotation guys.”

  • “Both Andre (Jackson Jr.) and Chris (Livingston) are going to be good players in the league. They’re good examples of why this new rule for signing second rounders is so good. They need time, and now we’re invested in each other for years. Our rotation is hard one to break into, but they have time. It doesn’t have to happen today.”

New York Knicks

  • “Landing Donte (DiVincenzo) adds to our depth on the perimeter. We have a lot of different options 1 through 3 now. It’s our deepest spot on the team.”

  • “It was time to trade Obi (Toppin). He needs to play more and we’re committed to Julius Randle. It does leave us with a bit of a hole at the 4, but that’s something we can figure out going into the season.”

  • “We’re excited about Jaylen Martin’s potential. He’s got a lot of work to do, and he’ll spend a good amount of time in the G League. But all of the potential is there for him to eventually become a rotation player. He’s one of the youngest guys from this draft class, so there’s a long runway.”

  • Opinion: The Knicks are loaded with guards and wings. They also have three good center options. Based on observations and conversations, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see New York move some of that depth to find an experienced backup big that can swing between the 4 and the 5.

Orlando Magic

  • “Anthony Black is ready to defend in the NBA today. He’s projected as an on-ball guy, but early on, he’ll probably be a secondary creator on offense. The question is going to be his shot. If he hits shots, this is a homerun pick, because he can do everything else.”

  • “Jett Howard is doing some of the ‘other’ stuff here in Las Vegas. He’s moving the ball, playing defense, rebounding. That’s good, because his finishing has been a little rough. He’s got a good jumper though. That’s big for his chances of finding playing time.”

  • “Adding Joe Ingles brings a measure of maturity to the locker room. Not that the guys are immature, but Ingles can help through the rough patches. If we had a guy like him last year, we might not get off to such a rough start.”

  • “Still excited about everything Jalen Suggs can be. He’s got all the talent, just has to stay healthy long enough to put it all together for more than a four- or five-game stretch.”

  • “We’ll put our young guys against anyone’s in the league. We feel like this group is ready to start taking steps forward. The talent is there, it’s now about adding the experience.”

Philadelphia 76ers

  • “Everything has been in a bit of a holding pattern because of (James Harden’s) trade request. We can’t sign a bunch of guys, then do a 3-for-1 trade and not have the roster spots. But we added Patrick Beverley and Mo Bamba. We needed more depth at those spots no matter what, and those guys will help us this season, no matter what direction the roster takes.”

  • “Long-term, it’s about Joel (Embiid) and Tyrese (Maxey). Those two are as good of a starting point as anyone has in the entire NBA. Add a ton of cap and roster flexibility, and you’ve got something most teams would kill for.”

  • “Offseason remarks aside, we love Tobias Harris and he knows that. He’s a really good player and a big part of everything we’ve been over the last several years. Nothing has changed about the way we feel about him.”

Toronto Raptors

  • “Signing Dennis Schroder wasn’t quite a ‘must sign’, but it was close. We just don’t have a lot at that position. We’re fortunate that our forwards can all handle the ball and do a lot of playmaking. But we still needed someone who is more of a true point guard. Dennis gives us that guy.”

  • “I understand you think Jalen McDaniels is just adding an extra forward to an already crowded mix. But sometimes the value of the player and the cost are just something you can’t pass up. We’re happy to have him as part of the Raptors.”

  • “Scottie Barnes and Gradey Dick are our future, along with Jakob Poeltl. Not because we are down on anyone else, but those guys are all signed for longer than two seasons. But that’s the kind of stability we want, because the rest of the roster is sort of in transition. That trio is a group we can build with.”

  • “There’s a lot of trade interest in a lot of our players. We always say that means we have good players. As of now, there’s nothing in the works to move anyone, but we are in a bit of a transition period and the roster is still taking shape.”

Washington Wizards

  • “Starting over is too harsh of a term. Resetting? That feels more correct for where we’re at. The intention was never to tear things all the way down. But we like what we’ve got and the path we’re on now.”

  • “Kyle Kuzma has been a big part of things for a couple of years now. We’ve seen how he’s grown and rounded out his game. Getting him to return on the deal we did is a major win for him and the franchise as a whole.”

  • “There are opportunities for a lot of players to show what they can do this season. We’re going to play the kids a lot and find out what they can be. No one will be able to say it was a lack of opportunity that kept them from showing what they can do.”

  • “We’re thrilled to have Bilal (Coulibaly). We traded up because our intel was that other teams were attempting to do the same thing, and Indiana had made it clear they were willing to move around the board. We couldn’t risk waiting one more pick, because we knew someone else was going to come up to draft Bilal. But we’re going to ask everyone to be patient. He’s only 18 years old. (Note: Coulibaly turns 19 years old on July 26.) So, this is very much throwing a kid into the fire. But this is a long-term thing for us. He doesn’t need to be great or to play on Day 1. He just needs to work hard and do what’s asked of him by the coaches.”

  • Opinion: It’s officially time to worry about Johnny Davis, if you aren’t there already. Second-year players should look better than the first-year players at Summer League. Unfortunately, Davis hasn’t looked like that guy.

 

Keith SmithJuly 13, 2023

Longtime readers of mine (back to my RealGM days) will know that each year that I attended NBA Summer League, I came home with an overflowing notebook of items from talking to people around the NBA. These can be notes about players, teams, the league as whole or really anything related to the NBA.

Summer League is a very relaxed environment. The draft is done, free agency is largely done (especially this year!) and NBA folks are chatty. It’s also probably the most optimistic time of the NBA calendar. Everyone feels great about the work they did in the offseason and what it means for their club going forward. Admittedly paraphrasing, it’s very common to hear things like:

  • “We had him at the top of board.” (Note: This is said almost no matter what pick the team had.)

  • “The draft fell off right after pick X.” (Note: This is at whatever pick the team had, traded up to, or the pick after a pick they traded out of.)

  • “We were lucky he wanted to sign with us.” (Note: Said about almost every free agent signee.)

  • “We feel good about what we did, given our limited resources this summer.” (Note: Said by teams with cap space, teams without cap space, teams that only had veteran minimum deals to offer and teams that had multiple draft picks.)

With that in mind, the vast majority of the notes about players and teams will be positive ones. But that’s ok! Who can’t use a little more positivity in their life?

A few more notes:

  • All quotes are anonymous. Each one came from NBA team personnel (generally a front office executive, coach or assistant coach). In exchange for anonymity, you often get candidness.

  • Anything that is an opinion from myself will be noted as such with “Opinion: …”.

  • In the vast majority of cases, these notes and thoughts were collected through Tuesday, July 11. A handful of times, folks followed up after the fact with further thoughts, but most were collected while I was on the ground in Las Vegas.

All of that said, let’s start with some general NBA observations!

General NBA Observations

New CBA

  • “It’s restricting, but you can see the impact already. None of the Warriors, Suns or Clippers signed anyone new for more than the minimum. That’s a good thing for balance.”

  • “Everyone is over the salary floor. That’s almost never the case. That’s a good thing, because those teams spent to lift themselves up.”

  • “The league already feels more balanced. No one team is spending tens of millions more than everyone else. No teams are sitting on piles of cap space.”

  • “The Second Round Pick Exception is a game changer. We were able to use it and use our MLE. That’s extra talent we added because we didn’t have to use the MLE to sign our second rounder.”

  • Opinion: The Second Round Pick Exception has been used to sign 13 players to four-year contracts. That’s already a huge win for teams, and most of those players got more guaranteed money than they would have otherwise. That’s a win-win situation.

  • “Extensions have changed the game. Of course, that happened before the new CBA, but the new rules make extensions even better for players. You’re not going to see too many guys actually hit free agency.”

  • “Trades are the way now, if you want to make a big splash. Maybe for a bad team, like Houston did, you can use space to get some veterans. But most teams aren’t in a spot to pay or overpay for guys. That means trades will be even more important than they were before.”

Depth of Talent

  • “This is the most talent the league has ever had. Look at the guys who are playing here in Vegas. These rosters are stacked.”

  • “We’ve never been in a better place as a whole. There’s incredible young talent in the league, and vets are playing longer than ever before. I tell our guys all the time ‘It’s hard to find a rotation spot now. If you aren’t playing, it doesn’t mean you can’t play. It’s just not your time yet.’ But the young kids don’t want to hear that. They get impatient and start looking for another situation. The grass isn’t always greener.”

Expansion

  • “It’s time. Beyond time actually. We have too many good players not playing. And there are at least 50 guys playing outside of the NBA somewhere, in places like the G League or overseas, that are NBA-level guys.”

  • “There are cities who want it and we have enough talent. It’s time. I know they keep saying after the new TV deal, but the process should already be starting. We all know it’s coming.”

  • “I want expansion because I want more jobs for everyone. Players, coaches, medical staff, front office personnel, TV folks, all sorts of people. Expansion will add hundreds of jobs to the league. Too much talent not in our league that should be.”

  • “I’m against expansion. I’d rather have too many good players on each team than not enough. But I know it’s coming.”

  • Opinion: Las Vegas is buzzing about getting their own NBA team. Most folks assume it’s basically a done deal, even if nothing has been officially said, or even fully hinted at.

In-Season Tournament

  • “It’s fine. I don’t know. It’s fine.”

  • “I guess I don’t see the point. But we tell our guys all the time: If we have to play, we might as well win.”

  • “It’ll be fun. Those early-season games don’t have a lot of juice. This will get guys feeling competitive early. And by the time we hit the tournament phase, guys are going to want to win it.”

  • “We aren’t soccer. Stop trying to make us soccer.”

  • “I thought the Play-In Tournament was bad, but it’s been great. I’m sure this will be great too.”

  • “I’m a big soccer fan. This is going to be awesome. Eventually, we should open it up to the G League teams too and make it a real tournament. Unfortunately, no one is going to want to risk losing to a G League team. Imagine how bad that would make you look?”

Summer League

  • “I’ll repeat what I told you years ago: Summer League doesn’t tell you who can play, but sometimes it can tell you who can’t play. But don’t read too much into things, whether good or bad.”

  • “We use it to experiment with our second- and third-year guys. Some games we tell them that their goal is to shoot at least 20 times, with 10 off-the-dribble shots. Does that get messy? Sure. But that’s what Summer League is for.”

  • “I never thought this would get this big. It’s crazy how popular this has become.”

  • “Honestly, my favorite two weeks of the year. Everyone is here. We’re all working. Your young guys are in the gym getting better. Nothing beats it.”

  • “It should be one week long. Four games. One game every other day. That’s enough.”

  • “I’m on the road all the time, so this is my time to actually be with the team. I enjoy that aspect of it. And it’s great to see people, especially coaches, because we don’t cross paths much during the season.”

  • “It’s fun to see the rookies, but, for me, it’s about seeing what the other kids can do. Did they get better? Are they improving the skills we tasked them with improving? Are they embracing the new guys? Those are the things I look for.”

  • Opinion: Summer League is a must-do for any NBA fan. No where will get you as close to NBA players as you can get in Las Vegas.

On the full days, with eight games spread between the two gyms, you can’t beat it. The gyms are literally right next to each other, and connected by the concourse around Thomas and Mack.

If you ever have the opportunity to attend Summer League, do it. You’ll enjoy yourself, even if the actual basketball isn’t always the best.

Keith SmithJune 30, 2023

NBA free agency is about superstars, first and foremost. The best players get the most money, and they generally get it the earliest. Star trades are also a big (and only getting bigger) part of the opening of free agency, as teams reset their rosters.

Once that first wave or two of free agency passes, that’s when a lot of the real work gets done. At that point, teams get to work signing lesser-known players using parts of their MLE, remaining cap space or sometimes even for the veteran minimum.

Here are some of the top under-the-radar free agents to keep in mind when everything starts swirling this weekend:

Dalano Banton (Toronto Raptors) – Unrestricted

Banton is huge for the point guard position, as he stands 6-foot-9. His statistical profile isn’t going to jump out at anyone, especially from last season. But Banton can play. He needs to shoot the ball more consistently to make it as a rotation player, but the rest of his game is pretty solid. His G League numbers, albeit only over 21 total games, show how solid Banton is all-around. That’s worth taking a shot on for your third point guard, with some upside.

Keita Bates-Diop (San Antonio Spurs) – Unrestricted

Bates-Diop has toiled in relative obscurity in San Antonio the last three years. His first year was nothing to write home about, but the last two seasons have shown real growth. Bates-Diop can play and guard 2-4. Last season, he had 51/39/80 shooting splits. If you believe that the jumper is real, especially from deep, Bates-Diop will be a free agency steal for someone’s rotation.

Jevon Carter (Milwaukee Bucks) – Unrestricted

It’s not that Carter is an unknown quantity. Most people know he’s good. But do most know just how good Carter is? He played in 81 games last season, which has value in and of itself. But Carter also shot 42.1% from three, which continued a four-year trend of being a good shooter. And that’s in addition to being a solid ballhandler, playmaker and a bulldog on defense. Unless he’s dead set on returning to Milwaukee, Carter should be making more than the minimum from a playoff contender that needs a guard.

Torrey Craig (Phoenix Suns) – Unrestricted

Craig is coming off the best season of his career, as he enters his age-33 season. He still gets after it on defense, but he showed a little more on-ball offensive ability last season, as well as hitting 39.5% from deep. It’s likely Phoenix will re-sign Craig, given their need for quality depth. But if Craig does get away, someone should get a relative bargain for a 3&D wing.

Drew Eubanks (Portland Trail Blazers) – Unrestricted

Eubanks had an outstanding run with the Trail Blazers to finish up the 2021-22 season. No one really saw it, because that was a bad and injury-ravaged team playing out the string. But Eubanks put up another solid season this past year with Portland too. He’s a terrific finisher around the rim, and a good shot-blocker and rebounder. Eubanks is also showing some early signs of developing a spot-up three-point shot. He’d be great as the primary backup/spot-starter at the five for any playoff team.

A.J. Green (Milwaukee Bucks) – Restricted

This takes some projecting, and a leap of faith, because Green has only played in 35 NBA games. But he can really, really shoot. And that’s become arguably the NBA’s most-prized skill. In those 35 NBA games, Green hit 41.9% on 105 three-point attempts per game. In the G League, Green hit 42.6% on 155 three-points, in just 15 games. He was also an efficient shooter on high three-point volume in college. In a league where everyone wants wing shooting, Green should be on a standard deal.

Trey Lyles (Sacramento Kings) – Unrestricted

It took a few years, and some bouncing around the league, but Lyles finally found his niche in the NBA. He was one of the better backup stretch bigs in the NBA last season. Lyles shot 36.3% on 3.2 three-point attempts per game last season. He’s also a good rebounder and solid positional defender. The Kings would love to have him back, but someone could make Sacramento pony up by offering a portion of an exception to sign Lyles.

Jaylen Nowell (Minnesota Timberwolves) – Unrestricted

Last season got a little sideways for Nowell. After a very good shooting year in 2021-22, he fell way off. Nowell shot 39.4% on three-pointers two seasons ago and then just 28.9% this past season. If you believe he’s closer to that 40% shooter, then he’s worth making a run at in free agency. Nowell has some on-ball playmaking ability, and was improved as a midrange shooter. He’s worth a gamble on a team-friendly deal, with the hope that he’ll re-discover his shooting stroke from the outside.

Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat) – Restricted

Robinson flashed in the 31 NBA games he played as a rookie. He’s got good hands and soft touch. He’s already a terrific rebounder, and should improve as a finisher around the rim. In 16 G League games, Robinson was pretty dominant. The Heat challenged him to shoot more from the outside too, which shows signs of potentially being a weapon for him at some point. This would be an upside play for a team that has room for a developmental big man.

Yuta Watanabe (Brooklyn Nets) – Unrestricted

Over the least three seasons as an at least semi-regular rotation player, Watanabe has shot 40.5% from three on 2.1 attempts per game. That’s pretty solid. He’s also a hustle guy, who never gives less than 100% effort. Watanabe’s all-out style also makes him a fan favorite everywhere he’s played. He’d make a wonderful fit as a bench player for any playoff team, because he’ll play hard, defend and hit threes at both forward spots.

Keith SmithJune 30, 2023
Keith SmithJune 29, 2023
Breaking down the upcoming offseason for each 2023-24 NBA team, including cap space figures, free agents, draft pick scenarios, & thoughts on potential trades, exceptions, & plenty more.
EASTERN CONFERENCE

Denver Nuggets

Offseason Approach: Re-sign Bruce Brown and defend the title

Actual Cap Space: -$67.3M

Practical Cap Space: -$67.3M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$1M

Under Contract (9): FULL ROSTER
Christian Braun, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Vlatko Cancar, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Zeke Nnaji, Michael Porter Jr., Peyton Watson

Potential Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Bruce Brown Jr. (unrestricted), Thomas Bryant (unrestricted), Collin Gillespie (restricted – two-way), Jeff Green (unrestricted), Reggie Jackson (unrestricted), DeAndre Jordan (unrestricted), Ish Smith (unrestricted), Jack White (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (1): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Taxpayer MLE ($5,000,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Monte Morris ($9,125,000)

First Round Draft Picks: Julian Strawther

Analysis: 

 The Denver Nuggets are the champs. That’s a pretty great place to be starting an offseason. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t work to do.

Denver is sitting just over the tax line, but will end up considerably over the line when they fill out their roster. Such is life on top. It’s rare for a champion to not be in or around the luxury tax.

The Nuggets hope that filling out of the roster starts with re-signing Bruce Brown. Denver is limited to offering Brown a deal starting at $7.8 million, using his Non-Bird rights. That’s under market value for Brown, but we’ve seen this exact situation play out in recent years to a team’s benefit.

The Milwaukee Bucks were limited in what they could pay Bobby Portis coming off their 2021 title season. They eventually gave Portis a minor bump in salary using his Non-Bird rights, and then after that season, they took care of Portis by signing him to a long-term deal using his Early Bird rights.

That’s what Denver has to be hoping for with Brown. He’s going to have offers for at least the Non-Taxpayer MLE of $12.4 million, if not even more from cap space teams. The Nuggets have to hope the draw of defending a title, with a promise of taking care of him down the line, is enough to lure him back. It’ll be a hard decision for Brown, who has made comparatively little money in his NBA career, to weigh winning against his first big payday.

Elsewhere, Denver has a handful of veterans they’ll consider re-signing. If Jeff Green wants to keep playing, he’ll probably be given the opportunity to return. Presumably one of Reggie Jackson or Ish Smith could be back to provide some depth at point guard.

The Nuggets acted swiftly to protect against some roster turnover, while also guarding against the looming restrictions with potentially tripping past the super tax line. Denver agreed to a deal while playing in the Finals (talk about doing double duty!) to add some extra draft picks.

Calvin Booth was able to swing a four-team trade that got the Nuggets three players in the 2023 draft. The plan seems to be for all three of those players to be rostered this season. That’s the sort of smart roster management that teams who can’t just carry massive tax bills will need.

Christian Braun emerged last year as a key rotation player. Denver is high on Peyton Watson being able to step into a rotation spot this season. It’s also possible that at least one of Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett or Hunter Tyson, the 2023 draftees, will be able to handle minutes as a rookie.

The Nuggets don’t have a lot of glaring needs, especially if Brown returns. They could use another backup big, unless Zeke Nnaji is able to stay healthy and hold down the backup center role. He has all the potential, and has flashed at time, but it’s never quite come together for Nnaji.

If Brown leaves, Denver could use another wing, but their tax status will likely have them looking at veteran minimum signings. That’s not a bad place to be, as some good veterans will get squeezed in free agency. The Nuggets will offer them a chance to compete for a title, and potentially a rotation role too.

Long-term, Nikola Jokic is starting his five-year, max extension this season. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are both signed through the next four and three years respectively. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has two more years on his deal.

The Nuggets fifth starter is the one to maybe watch this summer. Jamal Murray bounced back from missing the entire 2021-22 season, while recovering from a torn ACL, to have his best all-around season. Murray was still a scoring weapon, but he was also an improved playmaker and defender.

This offseason, Murray is extension-eligible, even with two years left on his current deal. Denver has a lot of long-term money locked in, but their MO has also been to take care of their own guys, and to take care of them early when possible. It’s also possible that signing Murray now, before he’s got an All-Star appearance under his belt, could result in a deal for less than the max.

Even if no extension comes for Murray this offseason, he’s still got two years before he’ll hit free agency. That’s plenty of time for the Nuggets to figure things out with their breakout star. And, on Murray’s side of things, he could hope to break through to All-NBA status and possibly qualify for an even bigger extension than the one he can get right now.

It’s not an overly complicated summer for the Denver Nuggets. Most everyone is in place to defend the title. Even if they lose Bruce Brown, the Nuggets should be ok. They’ve got young options ready to step in. And if they keep Brown, Denver should be considered one of the favorites to get back to the Finals, if not to repeat as champions.

Miami Heat

Offseason Approach: Maintaining and adding talent while dancing around the super tax

Actual Cap Space: -$64.5M

Practical Cap Space: -$64.5M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$11.6M

Under Contract (9): FULL ROSTER
Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith (non-guaranteed), Nikola Jovic, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Victor Oladipo, Duncan Robinson

Potential Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Jamal Cain (restricted – two-way), Udonis Haslem (unrestricted), Kevin Love (unrestricted), Orlando Robinson (restricted – two-way), Max Strus (unrestricted), Gabe Vincent (unrestricted), Omer Yurtseven (restricted), Cody Zeller (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (1): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: None (Taxpayer removed due to being over the second tax apron)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Dewayne Dedmon ($4,700,000)

First Round Draft Picks: Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Analysis: 

The Miami Heat made an incredible run from being down late in the knockout game of the Play-In Tournament to the NBA Finals. After an up-and-down regular season, Miami came together at exactly the right time. The question now: Is that run sustainable?

In theory, the answer is yes. Miami has the ability to retain all of the players that were a part of that Finals run, and Tyler Herro should be back healthy for next season. But reality is a lot more complicated.

The Heat have an expensive roster, and a few key players are starting to age. A year from now, after Kyle Lowry’s contract expires, things clear up a good amount for Miami, but that’s a year from now. Pat Riley and his front office staff have a lot of immediate items to handle now.

Miami reportedly pulled out of the bidding for Bradley Beal, because they were going to save their trade pieces in case Damian Lillard became available. It’s nearly July 1, and the entire NBA world is still waiting to see if Lillard become available. So, who knows how that plays out? Meanwhile, the Heat have a few players about to hit free agency that aren’t necessarily going to wait around on Lillard.

That’s the reality of this time of year. You’re often juggling a lot at the same time, and it’s hard to keep that many balls in the air at once. But Miami has a great, experienced front office. They’ll have Plan A, B, C, all the way through Z ready to go, for whatever the offseason brings.

If Lillard become available, Miami is in a good spot to make a strong offer. If the Portland Trail Blazers want salary relief, along with draft picks, then Lowry is probably headed to Portland. If the Blazers want young talent, along with draft picks, then it’s probably Tyler Herro. There are also three-team options that could work, where a team is “paid” to take a contract or two on in a deal.

While waiting and hoping for Lillard, the Heat have other work to do. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus are unrestricted free agents. Both players are coming off minimum contracts and are positioned to cash in for the first time in their careers.

We’ll start with Vincent, because in a no-Lillard world for Miami, he’s the more important of the two free agents to retain. Simply put: the Heat need Vincent. Lowry is no longer a starting-level point guard. He misses too much time, and his game has slipped. Vincent proved last season, and in the Finals run, that he is a starting-level point guard. Miami will likely try to retain Vincent. Ideally, he’d get something in the $15 million AAV range over four seasons. That’s a contract that will hold value, even if Vincent shows last season was a career-year and he’s not quite as productive. If nothing else, he’ll be a high-end backup, and $15 million AAV isn’t bad for that role.

For Strus, the math might end up being a little different. He’s a wing shooter and every team needs wing shooters. You can never have enough of them. There are rumors that the Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic could both chase Strus in free agency. Both are cap space teams and could offer up to $20 million in starting salary.

For the Heat, Strus is less of a priority to retain, because Tyler Herro will start at one guard spot, and Duncan Robinson re-emerged as a rotation player in the postseason. Miami has some coverage there, unlike at point guard.

What could change things is a potential trade for Lillard. In that case, depending on the package heading to Portland, the Heat could see the need for another wing overtake the need for a point guard.

Outside of Vincent and Strus, the Heat don’t really have a lot of roster decisions to make. Kevin Love could return, as he was pretty solid for Miami in the playoffs. His deal will probably be around the minimum, or maybe a touch more using his Non-Bird rights. Giving Love a bigger salary makes him a better salary-match in potential trades around the deadline. Cody Zeller was likewise a solid player for the Hear, and he could return on another minimum deal.

Because it’s Miami, you have to fix an eye further down the roster too. Jamal Cain and Orlando Robinson both had moments in the NBA, in addition to being terrific in the G League. Omer Yurtseven has flashed at times too. All three are expected to be restricted free agents, and it’s a good bet that at least two will be back with the Heat in some form.

Jamie Jaquez Jr. was selected in the first round of the draft, and he just seems like a Heat player. Jaquez is tough and versatile. If he can re-discover the shooting form he showed a couple of years ago, he’ll be a steal of a draft pick.

As for Kyle Lowry, it seems like Miami has sort of hit a bit of a breaking point with Lowry’s contract. At $29.7 million, Lowry’s best value to the Heat is as salary-matching in a big trade. If that doesn’t develop, there are a lot of rumors that Miami could waive and stretch Lowry. Stretching his salary would free up nearly $20 million in wiggle room around the luxury tax, and that would allow for the front office to do some things they can’t do otherwise. This is one to keep an eye on, as we get into the free agency period.

It might be a little weird for a team coming of an NBA Finals trip to have so much in flux, but that’s where the Miami Heat are at. They’ll always be in the mix for whatever star becomes available, so that also puts them in a semi-permanent state of limbo at the start of each offseason. But if any front office will figure out and adapt to the new CBA and its restrictions, it’s the Heat. Miami will likely sign Vincent or Strus, and then move about filling out the rest of the roster. Potentially even using the MLE, if they waive and stretch Lowry. That’s all true, unless a big trade happens. Then, all bets are off on how this summer goes in South Beach.

Boston Celtics

Offseason Approach: Extend Jaylen Brown and keep tinkering around the stars

Actual Cap Space: -$58.4M

Practical Cap Space: -$52.2M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$8.3M

Under Contract (11): FULL ROSTER
Malcolm Brogdon, Jaylen Brown, Justin Champagnie (non-guaranteed), Sam Hauser, Al Horford, Luke Kornet (non-guaranteed), Kristaps Porzingis, Payton Pritchard, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, Robert Williams III

Potential Free Agents (4): FULL LIST
J.D Davison (restricted – two-way), Blake Griffin (unrestricted), Mfiondu Kabengele (restricted – two-way), Grant Williams (restricted)

Dead Cap (1): Demetrius Jackson ($92,857)

Projected Signing Exceptions: Taxpayer MLE ($5,000,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: None

Analysis: 

The Boston Celtics already reacted to the disappointment of losing the Eastern Conference Finals in a big way, literally and figuratively. Boston traded long-time Celtics stalwart and fan favorite Marcus Smart to the Memphis Grizzlies in a deal that saw them land Kristaps Porzingis from the Washington Wizards in a three-team trade.

The Celtics also acquired a 2023 first-round pick in that trade, but swapped it in a trade that kicked of a series of other trades, that saw Boston ultimately net four future second-round picks. The Celtics also acquired a future Golden State Warriors first-round pick that is likely to convey within the next two years.

The Porzingis deal came together after a previous trade that involved Malcolm Brogdon heading to the LA Clippers fell apart, due to concerns with Brogdon’s health. Boston and Washington quickly pivoted to Memphis and the deal laid out above came together.

On the court, this is a major change for the Celtics. They got bigger, as Porzingis has finally started playing up to his 7-foot-3 frame. Porzingis is coming off the best season of his career, as he stayed mostly healthy and posted career-best numbers nearly across the board. He’ll add a dynamic to Boston with his long-range shooting, ability as a roller and his newish ability to punish smaller defenders on switches. Porzingis’ rim protection will be a boon in double-big lineups, as well.

But it’s not quite that simple. Smart was the Celtics heart and soul. He was the one diving on the floor and making plays when one just had to be made. And his impact went beyond intangible stuff too. He was the team’s best ballhandler and passer. He was a streaky shooter, but an improved one. And even if his defense slipped last season from the DPOY level of 2021-22, Smart is still a top-tier defender. And, Smart was the Celtics leader on and off the floor. That’s not something that is easily replaced.

Overall, it’s going to take a while to see how this swap really plays out for Boston. The true effects may not be felt until a playoff series, when the Celtics need that one play and the guy who has more often than not made that play isn’t there. But, for the regular season, it’s probably fine.

As for the rest of the roster, the Celtics are right up against the super tax line. That means they are basically re-signing Grant Williams, moving him in a sign-and-trade or losing him for nothing. Even if Williams leaves town, Boston may not find enough wiggle room to use the $5 million Taxpayer MLE.

So, should the Celtics just re-sign Williams?

That’s a tough question. On one hand, the decision should be an easy one. Williams is good, fills a role for Boston and his new contract is unlikely to land in a ridiculous range.

On the other hand, Boston is already expensive and probably only getting more expensive. Jaylen Brown is eligible for a super max extension, and he’ll get it offered to him just as soon as the Celtics are able to offer it. There are rumors that Porzingis opted in and agreed to the trade as part of an eventual extension. Jayson Tatum will be on a new super max deal in 2025-26. Or Boston really, really hopes he will be, at least.

Those looming expenses, with three players making between $34 and $50 million in 2024-25, makes it hard to keep everyone. That, more than any basketball reason, is why Williams could find himself leaving Boston.

There’s a school of thought that says the Celtics should re-sign Williams and let tomorrow’s problems be tomorrow’s problems. That’s perfectly valid, given Boston is a title contender right now. But eventually that bill comes due. As long as Brad Stevens and his staff realize they can’t delay it forever, and have a long-term plan, there’s no reason they can’t bring Williams back for this season.

Around the rest of the roster, the Celtics have some work to do with Malcolm Brogdon. They need to do some relationship repair, given he was basically traded before everything collapsed. And there’s actual physical rehab for Brogdon too, for the torn ligament in his right arm/elbow. Stevens expressed that the team expects Brogdon to be ready for this season, but that’s still at least somewhat of a question.

Payton Pritchard was pretty open about wanting an opportunity to play. It initially seemed like he’d be traded this summer. With Smart out of the picture, and Brogdon hurt, Boston may now hang onto Pritchard and give him that bigger role themselves.

Luke Kornet will stick around on his non-guaranteed deal, because the Celtics value him as stay-ready backup center. Justin Champagnie will probably stick a bit later into the summer, as his contract guarantees don’t come into play until August.

Blake Griffin is the only other veteran free agent of note. If he wants to play, Boston would probably welcome him back. The Celtics loved what Griffin did when he played, and valued him as a locker room leader just as much.

Two-way player J.D. Davison will either be elevated to the main roster or back on another two-way deal. He improved greatly throughout a rookie season spent mostly in the G League, and the Celtics want to keep working with him. This year’s lone draftee, Jordan Walsh, will probably grab an end-of-the-bench developmental roster spot.

Barring another big trade, the Boston Celtics roster could be just about finished. That may seem anticlimactic, but that’s what happens when your first big offseason move happens before the draft. The Celtics have reset things by adding Kristaps Porzingis. It’s possible Brad Stevens isn’t done yet, but all the pieces are already in place for another Finals run. There might not be a lot left to do this summer for Boston.

Los Angeles Lakers

Offseason Approach: Re-sign their own free agents and run it back

Actual Cap Space: -$91.1M

Practical Cap Space: -$72.8M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $47.7M

Under Contract (7): FULL ROSTER
Mo Bamba (non-guaranteed), Max Christie, Anthony Davis, Shaquille Harrison (non-guaranteed), LeBron James, Cole Swider (two-way), Jarred Vanderbilt

Potential Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Malik Beasley (unrestricted – team option), Troy Brown Jr. (unrestricted), Wenyen Gabriel (unrestricted), Rui Hachimura (restricted), Scotty Pippen Jr. (restricted – two-way), Austin Reaves (restricted), D’Angelo Russell (unrestricted), Dennis Schroder (unrestricted), Tristan Thompson (unrestricted), Lonnie Walker IV (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Taxpayer MLE ($5,000,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: Jalen Hood-Schifino

Analysis: 

The Los Angeles Lakers were really two different teams last season. The first team was the under-.500 not-good bunch at the trade deadline. Then, over the final third of the season, the Lakers went 19-8 before making a run to the Western Conference Finals.

It’s that second group that Los Angeles will look to recreate next season.

The Lakers could choose to go the cap space route this summer, by tearing the roster down and leaving only LeBron James, Anthony Davis and a few others in purple and gold. But it seems like Rob Pelinka and his staff are going to stay over the cap and more or less run back the good version of the team from the back part of last season.

That’s not a bad line of reasoning for Los Angeles. The moves leading up to and at the trade deadline brought roster balance to the Lakers, while also adding some shooting and versatility. Instead of having 10 guards, several of which are questionable shooters, LA had some size and could play different styles.

And, the Lakers can’t realistically create full max cap space anyway. They’d be staring at James, Davis, Near-Max Free Agent X and a whole bunch of guys on minimum deals. We saw what they looked like in the first part of last season.

James and Davis are back for sure. The team will fully guarantee Jarred Vanderbilt’s contract. And the Lakers have let it be known they intend to keep restricted free agents Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura too.

Let’s start with the restricted guys for upcoming decisions. Reaves is the tricky one. LA can only offer Reaves a contract that tops out at about $60 million. That’s not enough for one of last season’s best breakout players. Reaves can shoot, pass and handle the ball. He’s also a deft scorer inside, with a knack for drawing fouls. And he’s solid defensive. With cap space teams looming, and Reaves and easy fit for all of them, he’s likely to get an offer sheet that approaches the max that he can get around $100 million.

From there, it’s up the Lakers to match or not. $25 million AAV for Reaves sounds steep, but it’s really not. That’ll be about 16% or so of the salary cap in 2024-25. That’s perfectly fine for a guy who is starter-level, and easy to plug into any lineup.

The tricky part for the Lakers, if they match, is the way the cap hits will land on their books, due to Reaves being an Arenas free agent. Los Angeles would have Reaves for the equivalent of the Non-Taxpayer MLE for the first season, with a minor raise for the second year. Then in Year 3, the deal would jump to north $30 million, with a minor raise for Year 4. That’s sitting in near-max territory in those final two seasons. By that point, the current contracts for both James and Davis will have expired. So, the Lakers books could be mostly clear, but it’s still a factor for down the line.

Hachimura’s situation is far more straight forward. He’s a regular restricted free agent, which means the Lakers can match any deal for him, but the cap hits will be handled the normal way. And, of course, LA can work out a new deal with Hachimura before he even gets to the point of negotiation an offer sheet with another team.

After the restricted guys, the Lakers still have eight other players to look at new deals for. The primary player of this group is D’Angelo Russell. He’s eligible for a deal starting as high as $40.8 million, but he’s not going to get that much. A deal around $30 million probably is in play though. Again, that might seem steep, but it’s around what Russell made a year ago. He’s not likely to take a very big discount. And a contract starting around $30 million is a really nice piece of salary-matching in a future trade, given Russell is a solid scorer and playmaker.

Dennis Schroder’s situation is a little easier. Either he comes back to the Lakers on a minimum deal, or he’ll head elsewhere. LA can’t really offer him meaningfully more than the minimum, without dipping into an exception. Given he may not see an offer above the minimum elsewhere, Schroder could come back on a wink-wink deal, knowing the Lakers will take care of him with Early Bird rights in 2024.

Lonnie Walker IV and Troy Brown Jr. might be an either-or decision, especially if the team picks up their option for Malik Beasley. It gets to be a bit of overkill with all three, plus draftee Jalen Hood-Schifino in that mix.

Walker looked like his time in LA would be short, but then he re-emerged and had some playoff moments. The Lakers could give him a minor raise and start a new deal at about $7.8 million. Again: not bad money for what Walker brings, and that salary is a nice trade asset down the line.

Brown was a regular rotation guy, and started 45 games. He’s fine defensively, and he actually shot better with the Lakers than he had anywhere else. He’s the wing version of Schroder, in that Los Angeles can’t offer him meaningfully more than the minimum.

Beasley’s team option is for $16.5 million for next season. There was a time when that looked like a solid value for what Beasley brings to the floor. But over the last couple of seasons, he’s become strictly a volume three-point shooter. When he’s hitting around 40%, that’s fine. When he dips down around 35%, that’s not as fine. Still, repeat after me, it’s fine and Beasley is tradable salary later.

Mo Bamba, Wenyen Gabriel, Shaq Harrison and Tristan Thompson are probably all in 50-50 territory to be back. Gabriel could return on a minimum deal, and he’s good as a deeper option in the frontcourt. If Thompson wants to play, he’s probably in the same boat. But, given his veteran status, he may not sign anywhere until we’re deeper into the season. Or Thompson could just retire.

Bamba and Harrison are on non-guaranteed deals, but in different spots. Harrison will likely stick through camp, and then we’ll see. Bamba’s $10.3 million deal becomes fully guaranteed before free agency opens. Having him back at that salary will push the Lakers into being a tax team, and potentially have them dancing around the super tax. Bamba will probably get waived, but could be brought back at a smaller salary.

Pending how they handle their free agents, the Lakers could be in position to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE of $12.4 million this summer, but it’s more likely LA will have the $5 million Taxpayer MLE. That’s not bad, but it’ll be a significantly different level of player. Or Los Angeles could use an exception, or part of it, to give a salary bump to one of their minimum salary players.

The Los Angeles Lakers figured a lot out post-trade deadline. They were a pretty good team by the time the playoffs rolled around, evidenced by their run to the West Finals. This season is about running that back with some long-term deals, while also maintaining flexibility for the eventual post-LeBron James years.

Philadelphia 76ers

Offseason Approach: Re-sign Harden and run it back

Actual Cap Space: -$67.2M

Practical Cap Space: -$63.9M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $42.9M

Under Contract (8): FULL ROSTER
Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Danuel House Jr., Furkan Korkmaz, Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton ($1.5 million guaranteed), Jaden Springer, P.J. Tucker

Potential Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Dewayne Dedmon (unrestricted), James Harden (unrestricted – player option), Montrezl Harrell (unrestricted), Louis King (unrestricted – two-way), Mac McClung (restricted – two-way), Jalen McDaniels (unrestricted), Shake Milton (unrestricted), Georges Niang (unrestricted), Paul Reed (restricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Taxpayer MLE ($5,000,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: None

Analysis: 

The Philadelphia 76ers offseason really starts and ends with James Harden. If Harden re-signs, the Sixers will turn to filling out the roster with depth around their returning starting group. If Harden leaves town, Philadelphia will have to figure out how to retool their roster to maintain being a contender.

Joel Embiid is signed long-term, but he’s currently the only 76er with money that stretches beyond the 2024-25 season. So, if Harden leaves, this is a chance for Philadelphia to reset a bit and figure out a new plan of attack around Embiid and a likely extended Tyrese Maxey.

But the plan is for Harden to re-sign. It seems like all that buzz of Harden returning to the Houston Rockets is starting to quiet down. None of the other cap space teams make sense. That leaves re-signing with the 76ers, but potentially not on the full four-year max that Harden is eligible for. The guess here is that Harden still gets max money per season, but that the deal only runs for two years. Or possibly a three-year deal with a player option on year three. That kind of protects both Harden and the Sixers, should they decide that things aren’t going exactly the way they want them to.

After Harden, Philadelphia’s next piece of business is to get Maxey signed to a rookie scale extension. When we looked at extensions for the 2020 draft class, we predicted that Maxey would sign a max extension. That might seem shocking to some, but Maxey is a scoring machine, a developing playmaker, a solid defender and a fan favorite. He’s also an efficient scorer, as he put up 48/43/85 shooting splits, and he doesn’t turn the ball over that often either.

Getting Maxey signed is important for the 76ers to be the team they want to be long-term. Harden is a valuable player, but his shelf life is limited. Maxey’s isn’t. He can team with Embiid for the remainder of Embiid’s prime, and that duo alone makes Philadelphia a playoff team.

Of their free agents, the key guys for the Sixers to look at re-signing are Georges Niang, Paul Reed and Jalen McDaniels. Niang is durable, an outstanding shooter and a good enough defender and ball-mover. He’s someone Philadelphia should want to get back, even if it comes at a raise and brings Niang up close to $10 million in first-year salary.

Reed has become an important player for the 76ers. He doesn’t play a lot, as he’s Embiid’s primary backup. But he’s always effective. He’s a good finisher around the rim, a terrific rebounder and solid shot-blocker. Reed tends to foul a lot, which could be a problem if he had to play a bigger role. He’s someone the team should look to get signed long-term, and Reed should come for less than $10 million per season, which is a great value for a good backup big man.

McDaniels wasn’t perfect with Philly, but he wasn’t bad either. He shot 40% from deep and 48.8% overall after the trade to the 76ers. McDaniels is a nice backup forward, and he can start, if necessary, too. He should land a deal that starts in the $7 million range or so, and that’s something the Sixers should give him.

Mac McClung has probably leapfrogged Shake Milton in terms of importance to the 76ers. McClung didn’t do much at the NBA level, but he was pretty dominant in the G League. He should get an opportunity at a real NBA shot sooner or later. The Sixers would do well to give that to him, or to see if they can get him back on a two-way deal, at least to start the season.

Milton is likely leaving town. He’s still a good backup combo guard, but he’s gotten a bit squeezed out with the 76ers, as Maxey has developed and after the team added De’Anthony Melton. Someone is going to get a nice bench guard in Milton in free agency.

One player to keep an eye on that isn’t a free agent, but seems likely to join the Sixers this summer is Filip Petrusev, who Philadelphia drafted in the second round in 2021. The 6-foot-11 center sounds like he’s ready to make the leap to the NBA after splitting the last two seasons between stints in Serbia and Turkey. Last season, Petrusev took a big step forward. He averaged 11 points and 4.9 rebounds, while hitting 57% from the field. He also knocked down 43% of his 114 three-point attempts. Petrusev’s skill game would be a nice contrast with Reed’s power game behind Embiid.

In recent weeks, it’s seemed increasingly likely that the 76ers could trade Tobias Harris. His deal is in its final season at $39.3 million. As an expiring deal, it’s more likely Harris could move now than it was in previous years. In addition, Harris’ father/agent came out recently and said the Sixers haven’t used his son properly.

Harris will turn 31 ahead of next season, but he’s still an efficient scorer and solid rebounder. He saw fewer shots than ever last season, but still averaged 14.7 points on 50/39/88 shooting splits. If someone can afford his contract, and maybe sees him as an extendable player for the next couple of seasons, they could get a semi-steal in a deal with the Sixers. And splitting Harris’ deal up into two or three players could help round out the 76ers rotation nicely. And, of course, if a highly-paid star is made available, Harris’ contract is a great piece of salary-matching in a trade.

This isn’t a make-or-break summer for the Philadelphia 76ers. They still have Joel Embiid and should still have Tyrese Maxey. That’s about as good a duo to build around as there is in the NBA. But it’s a pretty big summer to determine if the Sixers will be a title contender this season or not. To stay in title contention, they need to re-sign James Harden, fill out the bench with re-signings and a handful of minimum deals, and maybe a Tobias Harris trade. That’s easier said than done, and it feels like another year of postseason disappointment could start the clock ticking on Embiid’s future in Philadelphia.

Golden State Warriors

Offseason Approach: Extend the window as long as you can

Actual Cap Space: -$112.8M

Practical Cap Space: -$108.9M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$18.9M

Under Contract (10): FULL ROSTER
Patrick Baldwin Jr., Stephen Curry, Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II, Jordan Poole, Ryan Rollins, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Donte DiVincenzo (unrestricted – player option), Draymond Green (unrestricted – player option), JaMychal Green (unrestricted), Andre Iguodala (unrestricted), Ty Jerome (unrestricted – two-way), Anthony Lamb (restricted), Lester Quinones (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: None (due to being over the second tax apron)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #19

Analysis: 

The Golden State Warriors are trying to do what no team has done over the last 20 years aside from the San Antonio Spurs: extend a title window longer than a decade. The Warriors first came to prominence in 2013, with their first playoff appearance. Two years later, Golden State broke through and won the title in 2015. Ten years later, the Dubs are still chasing titles with the same core.

For now, at least.

Let’s start with a core member who can be a free agent. Draymond Green has a player option for next season that he’s sure to decline. That leaves the open question if Green will actually entertain leaving the Warriors or not.

With Golden State, Green probably gets at least a three-year deal. That would align his contract with Stephen Curry’s, and potentially with an extended Klay Thompson. If it’s a four-year deal for Green, the Warriors probably try to get some form of team-protection on that final season. That would be either a partial or non-guaranteed year, or a team option.

For another team to draw Green away, they’ll probably have to go to a full four-year deal without any sort of options on the final season. And that deal would likely need to push an AAV of over $30 million per season, if not above $35 million. That’s a lot for a 33-year-old player who has had some injury issues in recent years.

Oh, and that team will have to be a title contender too. Green isn’t going to spend the twilight of his career playing out the string on middling teams.

In the end, the Warriors and Green probably realize that they are best together. He’s still a top-tier defender, a playmaker and a team leader. The team is a title contender if he’s in the fold. In the end, he probably signs a three or four-year deal with Golden State with around $80 to $90 million in guaranteed money.

If they can re-sign Green, the Warriors next order of business is filling out their rotation and bench. It’s going to be hard for the Dubs to keep Donte DiVincenzo. He ended up sort of falling to them last offseason when money dried up, and maybe that plays out again this summer, but DiVincenzo should have offers for more than Golden State can give him.

If DiVincenzo opts out as expected, the most the Warriors can pay him is $5.4 million. That’s less than the Room Exception for next season. Unless DiVincenzo wants to stick around, another team probably beats that offer.

That’s not the end of the world, as Golden State sort of covered for the potential loss of DiVincenzo by re-acquiring Gary Payton II. The Warriors also have Moses Moody and potentially Patrick Baldwin Jr. ready to take on bigger roles on the perimeter.

The next most important free agents are Anthony Lamb and Ty Jerome. Both outplayed their two-way deals with the Warriors last year, but the team only had one available roster spot to convert one of them and they went with Lamb. Both players could be back, likely on minimum deals. That’d be good, as it would help Golden State fill out the bench with known players that they are familiar with.

Going back to the younger players on the roster…the whole “two timelines” plan didn’t really work out as the Warriors hoped it would. James Wiseman never got healthy nor productive enough, and he was shipped off at the trade deadline. Jonathan Kuminga’s future is somewhat in doubt, as he seems to want a bigger role than the one he has in the Bay Area. Kuminga even made waves about going on a summer pickup tour to show other teams and players what he can do.

If the Warriors have a “big” trade in them this summer, it probably involves moving Kuminga for a veteran to help fill out the rotation. Ideally, that player would just be Kuminga, but if things have gone too sideways, he’s the most likely to be traded player.

A trade is the best way for Golden State to bring in meaningful help this offseason. Because they are well above the Super Tax, even without re-signing Green, the Warriors don’t have a lot of avenues to bring in outside talent. They won’t have the MLE (Super Tax teams lose the MLE starting this offseason) to use this year, like they did last year for DiVincenzo. That means it’s trades, the draft and veteran minimum signings for the Warriors.

Making those decisions is Mike Dunleavy Jr., who took over for Bob Myers, when the latter stepped down from running the front office. Dunleavy has had a rapid rise from scout to running the show in just a five-year period, but he’s been around the NBA game his whole life, including a long playing career. He’s also been with the Warriors long enough that he understands this team’s ecosystem.

There have already been reports that, despite the looming Super Tax penalties, Golden State isn’t considering any kind of salary-dump deals this summer. That means most of the roster should be back. In that case, the biggest need for the Warriors is backups in their frontcourt. JaMychal Green was fine, but ideally the team would find an upgrade over him. The good news is that some solid veteran big always finds himself squeezed out of money in free agency, which leads him toward looking to catch on with a title contender.

At the draft, the Warriors are probably picking the best player available. But it’s important that they nail their pick and find someone who can be a rotation player in the next couple of years. Because of the Super Tax, and the restrictions on adding outside help, hitting on your own draft picks is more important than ever. And Golden State still owes a protected first-round pick to the Memphis Grizzlies sometime between 2024 and 2026. That makes this a pretty important selection to get right.

Keep an eye on bigger rotation roles for Moody and Baldwin next year too. Moody looks like he’s ready for increased minutes. He’s the likely in-house replacement for DiVincenzo, along with Payton. Baldwin flashed late in the regular season and had some moments in the G League too. He needs more development, but there’s talent there. Getting him regular minutes could push his development forward.

The Golden State Warriors are title contenders if they re-sign Draymond Green. That’s the simple part of this equation, and the most likely path forward for both the team and Green. After that, it’s about staying healthy into the postseason, while having enough depth to navigate the regular season. They’ve done it before, so we shouldn’t count out the Warriors pushing that window open and making another title run in 2024.

New York Knicks

Offseason Approach: Re-sign Josh Hart and extend the kids

Actual Cap Space: -$54.6M

Practical Cap Space: -$50.7M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $18.5M

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER
R.J. Barrett, Jalen Brunson, Evan Fournier, Quentin Grimes, Isaiah Hartenstein, DaQuan Jeffries (non-guaranteed), Immanuel Quickley, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Roby (non-guaranteed), Jericho Sims ($600,000 guaranteed), Obi Toppin

Potential Free Agents (5): FULL LIST
Josh Hart (unrestricted – player option), Trevor Keels (restricted – two-way), Miles McBride (restricted – team option), Derrick Rose (unrestricted – team option), Duane Washington Jr. (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Taxpayer ($5,000,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: None

Analysis: 

The New York Knicks are coming off a good season that ended in some disappointment. New York rolled over the favored Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs, but were bounced by the underdog Miami Heat in the second round. Considering the Heat made it all the way to the NBA Finals, that’s nothing to be ashamed of.

Now, the Knicks have to figure out how far this group can take them. And that includes deciding how deep into the tax the team is willing to go, and when it’ll be time to cash in some assets in a home run swing of a trade.

As for the tax, the Knicks should start the summer with about $18 million or so in wiggle under the tax line. Most of that will get eaten up if the team re-signs Josh Hart, after he opts out of his deal. Hart and New York were a pretty perfect match, so the two sides are likely to come to an agreement on a long-term deal.

Aside from Hart, the Knicks free agent decisions seem pretty straight forward. Given how the team will be dancing around the tax, and likely over it, they’ll probably pick up their team option at essentially the veteran minimum for Miles McBride. In his first two seasons, McBride has proven to be an ideal third point guard. He stays ready, despite little consistent playing time, and he’s generally solid enough when he does play.

McBride’s emergence behind Jalen Brunson and Immanuel Quickley is directly tied to the fate of Derrick Rose. The Knicks have a $15.6 million team option for the former MVP, but they’re unlikely to pick it up. Keeping Rose at that salary would push the tax bill to an unreasonable level. If New York feels Rose has anything left in the tank, and if he wants to keep playing, the team could bring him back at a far more palatable salary figure.

The Knicks also have a handful of guarantee decisions to make. Jericho Sims is a virtual lock to have his deal guaranteed. He’s been very good as the team’s third center. Isaiah Roby was a flyer at the end of the regular season, and he’ll probably get a chance to fight for a roster spot. The same is true of DaQuan Jeffries who was promoted from his two-way deal, after a productive G League season.

If New York re-signs Hart and keeps the non-guaranteed players, they don’t really have a lot else to do roster-wise heading into the season. They’ll be active in trade talks, as they’ve reportedly monitored the availability of several veteran stars that have hit the market over the last few years. But under the current front office, the Knicks have taken a more patient approach towards teambuilding. And, unlike previous regimes, this front office values fit over simply collecting talent.

The Knicks other big pieces of business are figuring out extensions for Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin. Quickley is the priority, and he’s also the easier decision on extending at all. The Kentucky product has developed into one of the better bench guards in the NBA. He’s done a good job playing behind, with and in place of Jalen Brunson. That has a ton of value, and New York won’t want to let him get to restricted free agency in 2024.

Toppin’s story is a little different. He’s been a productive backup for Julius Randle, but that’s exactly what he’s been: a backup. Toppin has totaled all of 15 starts in his first three seasons in the NBA. You have to do some projecting for his extension value, both in terms of stats and in terms of role. The per-36-minutes stats for Toppin give us some idea that there is more production to come, if his role increased. But as long as Randle is in New York, Toppin probably won’t see more than 16 minutes or so per game.

Where does that leave the Knicks? In our 2020 Draft Class Rookie Scale Extension Predictions article, we guessed Quickley would land something four years and $84 million, with incentives that could bring the contract up to as much at $90 million. That might be a touch low, as Quickley could land an extension with $100 million in guaranteed money.

Toppin probably isn’t getting extended by the Knicks. It just doesn’t make sense, as long as Randle is on the roster. If Randle, or more likely Toppin, is traded, then an extension could make more sense. We pegged the value at $70 million over four years in that situation.

As far as adding outside talent, the Knicks did a lot last summer, so this offseason probably won’t be quite as busy. They’ll have limited spending power, assuming they re-sign Hart. And New York may hold onto that $5 million Taxpayer MLE, just in case a need comes up midseason.

It’s possible New York dangles some draft picks and matching salary in the form of Evan Fournier to try and find an upgrade via trade. Any sort of big move would probably necessitate moving one of Randle, R.J. Barrett or Mitchell Robinson also. Those three all carry positive trade value, as well as bigger salaries to combine with Fournier to bring in a real upgrade.

But therein lies the rub: Who will be available via trade that will be enough of an upgrade for the New York Knicks to cash in this offseason? There probably won’t be anyone. That means a relatively quiet offseason, aside from re-signing Hart and extending Quickley and/or Toppin. But that’s ok. The Knicks had the big offseason last year. Another year of growth together should result in another playoff appearance, and maybe a deeper run this time around.

Phoenix Suns

Offseason Approach: Add depth around the stars

Actual Cap Space: -$68.9M

Practical Cap Space: -$39.6M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $25.9M

Under Contract (6): FULL ROSTER
Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul ($15.8M guaranteed), Cameron Payne ($2M guaranteed), Landry Shamet

Potential Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Darius Bazley (restricted), Bismack Biyombo (unrestricted), Torrey Craig (unrestricted), Jock Landale (restricted), Damion Lee (unrestricted), Saben Lee (restricted – two-way), Josh Okogie (unrestricted), Terrence Ross (unrestricted), Ishmail Wainright (restricted – team option), T.J. Warren (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer ($12,221,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,448,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Dario Saric ($4,975,371)

First Round Draft Picks: None

Analysis: 

The Phoenix Suns have a great core in place, but they have a lot of work to do around that core. Most teams would love to start with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker as their primary building blocks. But after those two, the Suns have a whole lot of questions.

Everything kind of starts with Chris Paul for Phoenix. The veteran guard has a $30.8 million contract for next season, but only $15.8 million of that deal is guaranteed. Paul has reportedly been informed by the Suns that he’ll either be traded or waived ahead of that deal becoming fully guaranteed on June 28.

The Suns have some measure of control here, as they can guarantee any amount up to the full $30.8 million to make a trade work. Paul also has no ability to block a trade either. With few other ways to improve their depth, it behooves the Suns to try and find a trade that can bring back more options for the roster.

If Phoenix can’t trade Paul, they’ll likely waive him and stretch the money owed to him. Because he has two years left on his contract, the Stretch Provision would allow the Suns to spread the $15.8 million Paul is owed over five years. That would put $3.16 million in dead money on the cap sheet for the next five years, but it would open up a good amount of flexibility for Phoenix this summer.

(Note: Our projection for the Suns offseason spending power includes a waive and stretch of Paul’s salary.)

By stretching Paul’s salary, the Suns would be able to get to a place where they could use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. That $12 million could be used to sign one or two players to help fill out the depth on a roster that would only have five players under contract.

Phoenix also has to make a decision on Cameron Payne’s $6.5 million contract for next season. The veteran point guard is guaranteed $2 million if he’s on the roster after June 29. Given that Payne could still play a valuable role as a backup or spot starter, and not much flexibility is created by waiving him, he’ll probably be back with the Suns. Or, he could be added into a trade to return even more salary for Phoenix.

Trades are we’ll go next. The Suns have been linked to all sorts of veteran players in the days and weeks leading up to the offseason. Most of those deals revolve around Paul being traded, but several of the rumors also involve Deandre Ayton heading out of town.

Ayton is in a weird place with the Suns. He signed an offer sheet with the Indiana Pacers last summer, only to have Phoenix match it. Then he came back and didn’t maintain the progress he had shown over the last two seasons. Ayton remains sort of a mystery box. He’s capable of dominant stretches where he’s unstoppable around the rim and on the glass. He’s also prone to periods where he’s just sort of out there and having no impact at all.

In an ideal world, Ayton would find his form from the 2021 NBA Finals run and the following season, and the Suns would be set at the five. But with that a question, and Phoenix desperately in need of depth, Ayton is on the trade market.

If Phoenix can break up Ayton’s $32 million for next season into two or three rotation players, they’ll likely do it. When the former first overall pick has been out of the lineup, the Suns have shown they can get by with minimum salary centers. That would be the approach again this summer.

Barring blockbuster-level trades (Landry Shamet and his $10.25 million contract could be on the move too), the Suns have a lot of work to do in free agency as well. They’ve got 10 pending free agents, which is even with the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks for the most in the NBA this summer.

Phoenix would probably like to keep Bismack Biyombo or Jock Landale, or possibly both, for center depth. Both are capable backups and can start in a pinch. And both are likely to be on veteran minimum deals this coming season.

On the wing, Josh Okogie is coming off a very solid season. He was very good on defense, even if the offensive game still needs a lot of work. He’s another good bet to return on a veteran minimum deal.

Damion Lee remains underrated as one of the best shooters in the NBA. He should be getting consistent rotation minutes, either in Phoenix or elsewhere. Because of his inconsistent role down the stretch, Lee could be looking for a stable rotation spot elsewhere.

Terrence Ross is what he is, at this point in his career. He can come off the bench, catch fire and win you a game. Or he might not shoot well enough to stay on the floor. He’s probably in the veteran minimum range, as well. Ross could be back, assuming he accepts his role and play for the minimum.

Torrey Craig is probably leaving town. He’s coming off the best all-around season of his career, and should be looking to cash in on that. Craig also had a weird playoffs, where he lost his starting spot after the first round, and then saw inconsistent playing time in the second round. He remains a great fit on the wing with the Suns, but it might be time for a fresh start elsewhere.

At the forward spot, Phoenix has three free agents, but none are overly prominent and all are 50-50 at best to return. T.J. Warren is the best player of the bunch, but he oddly never saw much time with Phoenix. When healthy, Warren is a solid scoring option, but “when healthy” is becoming less and less often for him.

Darius Bazley has lost that shine as a prospect, but there’s still talent there. If the Suns tender Bazley a qualifying offer, he’s probably best to sign it and see if he can figure things out this coming season. There won’t likely be a bigger offer for him elsewhere.

Ish Wainright had a circuitous path to the NBA, but he should stick in the league. It’s just not clear if that will be with Phoenix or not. The Suns will probably decline their team option for Wainright, and they’ll probably re-sign him for the minimum if they want to keep him around.

The Phoenix Suns are one of the most fascinating teams this offseason. They have stars, but they absolutely have to add depth. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are both great, but neither has been the picture of health in recent years. If James Jones can’t fill out his rotation and bench depth properly, one injury could sink the Suns season. That might mean making a big trade or two, but those are the gambles you have to take when building out a top-heavy roster.

Sacramento Kings

Offseason Approach: Keep the good times rollin’

Actual Cap Space: -$47.9M

Practical Cap Space: -$44.1M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $49.2M

Under Contract (8): FULL ROSTER
P.J. Dozier (non-guaranteed), De’Aaron Fox, Richaun Holmes, Kevin Huerter, Davion Mitchell, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis

Potential Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Harrison Barnes (unrestricted), Terence Davis (unrestricted), Matthew Dellavedova (unrestricted), Kessler Edwards (restricted – team option), Keon Ellis (restricted – two-way), Alex Len (unrestricted), Trey Lyles (unrestricted), Chimezie Metu (unrestricted), Neemias Queta (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer ($12,221,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,448,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #24

Analysis: 

The Sacramento Kings did it! They broke through and made it to the playoffs again. Not only did they make it to the playoffs, but the Kings hosted a first-round series and pushed the defending champions all the way to a seventh game.

By any possible measure, this was a great season for Sacramento. The fun part? They are well set up to stay successful moving forward too.

The Kings have four of five starters signed for next year, plus both of their top reserves. They’ve also got plenty of room under the luxury tax to make some key re-signings and to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE to add another rotation player too.

Sacramento could also swerve a bit and create around $21 million in cap space. This would mean moving off some players they’d probably like to retain, but if there was a free agent the Kings felt was a perfect fit, or some flexibility was needed in trade, they can get there.

Let’s start with their own free agents. Harrison Barnes is obviously the key guy we’re thinking about. Barnes is heading into season 12, but he’s only 31 years old. He just played all 82 games, which continued a remarkable run of durability that’s seen Barnes appear in most of his team’s games for his entire career.

Production-wise, Barnes was the same guy he’s been for years now. He’s a solid shooter and good scorer. He still gets to the free throw line at a great rate (five attempts per game) for a guy who is the third or fourth option in most lineups. Defensively, he and Keegan Murray were prototypical interchangeable forwards and a key to some of the switching concepts that Mike Brown utilized around Domantas Sabonis.

Put it all together, and Barnes should be back. The key will be length of deal and guaranteed money. Because Barnes is now in his early-30s, the Kings would do well to keep this to a shorter deal with some measure of team control on the final season. That way, should Barnes’ production fall off a cliff, Sacramento will be protected.

What does that deal look like? Probably something that has about $60 million or so in guaranteed money over three or even four seasons, provided there’s an out on that last year. That’s more than fair for a guy who is a great fit and should have at least a few productive years left.

One other thing to keep an eye on with Barnes: He may not even reach free agency. Sacramento already extended him once. They have through June 30 to do it again. If they can come to an agreement on a fair deal, Barnes could be under contract by the time free agency opens on July 1.

After Barnes, Trey Lyles is the Kings most important free agent. The stats might not jump off the page, but Lyles is a solid stretch big. He can defend, he can rebound and he can shoot. Lyles know how to play off both Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox, which is also a key for a Sacramento big. He’s going to be an underrated free agent this summer, which should help the Kings keep him on a fairly team-friendly contract.

The rest of the free agents are a bit of a grab bag. Chimezie Metu is a nice player and could return on a minimum deal. Alex Len reemerged late in the year to become Sabonis’ primary backup and he would be fine to re-sign on a smaller deal too. Terence Davis had a nice season, but he’s the fifth guard in a four-guard rotation. If he wants to come back for a small deal, that’s fine too.

If the Kings wanted to go the trade route, Richaun Holmes is a nice piece of salary-matching at $12 million for this upcoming season. Holmes can still play, but his time in Sacramento’s rotation seems to have run its course.

Sacramento doesn’t need a whole lot to fill out their rotation. Assuming they re-sign one or two of the bigs, they could use another wing to fit beside Murray and Barnes and to complement Kevin Huerter. Gary Trent Jr. would make a lot of sense, but he could be out of range if all the Kings have to offer is the MLE. A shooter like Max Strus would be good, if he got priced out in Miami. Even a guy like Kelly Oubre Jr. or T.J. Warren could make sense to give the team a little more scoring punch alongside Malik Monk off the bench. Bargain players who would be nice fits include Keita Bates-Diop and Yuta Watanabe.

The next important item for the Kings is to see if there’s a way to work an extension with Domantas Sabonis. Unfortunately for Sabonis and Sacramento, his making All-NBA did nothing to impact his potential extension. Because Sabonis was acquired while on his second deal, the Kings are not able to offer him a Super Max deal, even though he made All-NBA this past season.

This is also where Sabonis being on a team-friendly deal also makes an extension a little messy. The most the Kings can offer Sabonis in first-year salary is $30.8 million, and that’s with the NBA’s more-lucrative extension rules. That’s under-market for an All-NBA player. The guess here is that Sabonis plays out his current deal and goes into free agency in the summer of 2024. At that point, Sacramento will be able to offer him up to his max amount, and they’ll probably get something done. He’s proven to be a perfect fit and the team should have no issue handing him a big, long-term contract.

The Sacramento Kings are coming off their best season in nearly two decades. They’re set up for sustainable success. Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are All-NBA level guys. Keegan Murray improved greatly as his rookie season went along, and will keep getting better. The role players are really good fits.

The key will be for the Kings keep their talent, without getting too rich and up against the luxury tax. That will give them the flexibility to keep replenishing the role players around the core. That might not mean flashy moves, but a steady inflow of talent is more than enough for us to start counting consecutive playoff appearances for the first time in a long time in Sacramento.

Memphis Grizzlies

Offseason Approach: Finding a small forward and more depth

Actual Cap Space: -$26.7M

Practical Cap Space: -$24.7M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $2.1M

Under Contract (15): FULL ROSTER
Steven Adams, Santi Aldama, Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Jacob Gilyard (two-way), Jaren Jackson Jr., Tyus Jones, Luke Kennard, John Konchar, Jake LaRavia, Kenneth Lofton Jr., Ja Morant, David Roddy, Vince Williams Jr. (two-way), Ziaire Williams

Potential Free Agents (2): FULL LIST
Dillon Brooks (unrestricted), Xavier Tillman Sr. (restricted – team option)

Dead Cap (1): Kennedy Chandler ($1,719,864)

Projected Signing Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer ($12,221,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,448,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #25

Analysis: 

The Memphis Grizzlies are at a pivotal point in their team-building arc. They’ve established themselves as a good team. They have a lot of pre-prime talent under team control. Those are good things.

However, the Grizzlies are also a year or two from getting really expensive. In the new CBA world, that will make continuing to add talent to their young core more difficult. That makes this a big summer for Memphis.

Because they’ve drafted and developed so well, the Grizzlies have only one or two roster spots available. That, combined with being well under the luxury tax line, give Memphis the ability to use their entire Non-Taxpayer MLE on one player. Memphis can pick the best fit and target that player using the $12 million MLE.

The spot that most needs immediate attention is starting small forward. Memphis is set with Ja Morant and Desmond Bane in the backcourt and Jaren Jackson Jr. and Steven Adams up front. They need a wing to replace Dillon Brooks, and ideally someone with the size to defend the bigger small forwards in the league.

The challenge? Upgrading from Brooks isn’t going to be easy. It’s not that Brooks is perfect. Far from it, actually. But he’s a very good defender and he’s a competent, if inconsistent and over-confident, offensive player. In free agency, players that Memphis can afford are kind of one or the other, as far as offense or defense go.

Bruce Brown should top the list for the Grizzlies. He’s more of a two than a three, but Brown can defend up and has done that a lot for the Denver Nuggets in their Finals run. He’s also a good off-ball player, as both a spot-up shooter and smart cutter. Brown is likely to get priced out in Denver, as the Nuggets can only offer him a modest raise over the Taxpayer MLE he’s on now. That could open the door for Memphis to snag him for the MLE.

If his market doesn’t develop as hoped for, Gary Trent Jr. makes a lot of sense for the Grizzlies too. He’ll probably make more than the MLE, but if for some reason that isn’t there, he’d make sense.

Going a bit bigger at the position with a 3/4 combo-forward could also make sense. If that’s the direction, there are host of affordable options that won’t even cost the team the full MLE.

Jalen McDaniels offers some solid defense and maybe some untapped offensive potential. T.J. Warren has been around for a while, but could give the Grizzlies a little extra scoring punch. Old friend Yuta Watanabe has been much-improved and he could eat up some rotation minutes. An under-the-radar target should be Keita Bates-Diop. He was very good for the San Antonio Spurs this past season and he can play both wing positions, as well as small-ball power forward.

We should also mention that the Grizzlies could trust their system and hope an internal option pushes forward. Ziaire Williams had a really promising rookie season, before he had a lost second season due to injuries. If Memphis can get him back on track, he’d go a long way towards filling that hole at small forward.

Second-year players Jake LaRavia and David Roddy could also blossom after getting a year of experience. Memphis won’t fully block that young trio from needed minutes, even if they explore adding some veteran depth.

The next pressing need is point guard depth. Tyus Jones is the best backup point guard in the NBA, so this might seem like an odd need. But the reality is that Jones will probably have to start for a large chunk of the season, assuming Ja Morant gets a lengthy suspension.

As of this writing, Morant hasn’t been suspended by the NBA for a second time. That’s likely coming down in the next couple of weeks, as NBA commissioner Adam Silver said he didn’t want to detract from the NBA Finals by announcing punishment for Morant.

Most expect Morant to get at least a 20-game suspension. That pending punishment, combined with Morant’s propensity for injuries due to his all-out style of play, necessitates that the Grizzlies have more depth than just Jones.

The good news is that this free agent class has a ton of veterans who can step in as a backup lead ballhandler, while also handling the stay-ready third point guard role. Players like Reggie Jackson, Dennis Smith Jr., Kendrick Nunn, Ish Smith and Cory Joesph could all fill that role on veteran minimum contracts.

Up front, Memphis is likely to be without Brandon Clarke for most, if not all, of the season. Clarke tore his left Achilles tendon in early-March. That’s usually a year-long recovery process, which means Clark would be returning towards the tail-end of next regular season, at best. The Grizzlies have to prepare as if they won’t have Clarke at all.

The good news is that Santi Aldama held down a backup big spot all season. Aldama was one of the most improved players in the NBA last season. He’s fine as a third big behind Jackson and Adams. Kenneth Lofton Jr. is also a fun developmental prospect, but he needs a lot more seasoning. Given the injury history of the two starters, Memphis needs more than just Aldama and Lofton.

Xavier Tillman Sr. could return, as the Grizzlies hold a $1.9 million team option for next season. It’s likely they’ll exercise that and bring the fourth-year big man back into the fold. But Tillman is more of a fifth big with some upside, as opposed to a regular rotation player.

In free agency, there are a lot of options for Memphis to add another big. There will be a host of available centers and 4/5 players, and all of them should be attainable on a veteran minimum deal.

There is one challenge for Memphis though… roster spots. They have the 25th pick in the draft, and we just called out three key needs. The Grizzlies currently have one open roster spot with Brooks out of their plans, and possibly a second spot if they decline Tillman’s team option.

The guess here is that Memphis goes for a wing and a point guard, and someone who they like ends up losing a roster spot along the way via trade or waiver. The draft pick could either be used to on a draft-and-stash prospect or traded in a move to kick the can down the road a bit.

The last piece of business for the Grizzlies might actually be the one they handle first when free agency opens. Desmond Bane is extension-eligible and he’s going to get a huge deal. Our Rookie Scale Extension Predictions article, raised some eyebrows by predicting Bane would get a max deal. But if you look at what he’s become as a player, and his perfect fit with Morant and Jackson as the Memphis core, he’s worth every penny of a 25% of the cap max deal.

If Ja Morant can get past the off-court immaturity, and others can stay healthy, it’s all right there for Memphis. They have the ability to round out their depth, and then move towards consolidation trades to fill whatever needs crop up. This is the time to do it. Windows close fast in the NBA, and the Grizzlies window is wide open right now.

Atlanta Hawks

Offseason Approach: Clean up the books while figuring who the core pieces are

Actual Cap Space: -$53.8M

Practical Cap Space: -$52.5M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$13M

Under Contract (15): FULL ROSTER
Saddiq Bey, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela, John Collins, Bruno Fernando (non-guaranteed), A.J. Griffin Jr., De’Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson, Vit Krejci (non-guaranteed), Tyrese Martin (non-guaranteed), Garrison Mathews (non-guaranteed), Dejounte Murray, Onyeka Okongwu, Donovan Williams (two-way), Trae Young

Potential Free Agents (2): FULL LIST
Trent Forrest (restricted – two-way), Aaron Holiday (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Taxpayer ($5,000,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Justin Holiday ($6,292,440)

First Round Draft Picks: #15

Analysis: 

If it feels like the Atlanta Hawks are stuck in the vortex of “good, but not good enough”, it’s because they are. The Hawks have been a playoff team for three straight seasons, but after a surprising Eastern Conference Finals run in 2021, the team has fallen in the first round the last two years.

On the positive side, it’s good to be a playoff team. Atlanta has a lot of talent. They also have a newish coach in Quin Snyder, who will enter his first full season with the Hawks this coming year.

On the negative side, Atlanta has a ton of salary committed to a group that is only just ok. They have some important upcoming free agents in a year. And the front office is in transition as well. That last one is as much a negative as it is an unknown.

This summer, the Hawks free agent decisions are fairly minor. Aaron Holiday was solid enough as the backup point guard and could return for another year at the Veteran Minimum. Trent Forrest is coming off a two-way and he’s probably looking for a bigger opportunity elsewhere.

There are a handful of non-guaranteed players on the roster that Atlanta will have to make decisions on. Bruno Fernando and Garrison Mathews both have pre-free-agency-opening guarantee dates, so they’ll be top of mind. Both Fernando and Mathews are good bets to return, as they provide deeper depth in the frontcourt and on the wing, respectively. And they’d need to be replaced by other minimum signings, so there isn’t a lot of reason to cut either loose for the relatively minor savings the Hawks would find.

Vit Krejci and Tyrese Martin are in a bit of a different spot. Neither has shown all that much, and the “young prospect” shine is probably off both players. The Hawks will need roster spots for this year’s draft picks, so Krejci and Martin could find themselves battling for their places on the team.

At the 2023 NBA Draft, Atlanta is picking smack in the middle of the first round. That’s best-player-available territory. As long as that player isn’t yet another forward to throw into an already confusing mix, the Hawks should be fine.

The rest of the offseason will be focused on extensions and trades. And Atlanta’s new basketball ops leader Landry Fields has work to do with both.

On the extension front, both Onyeka Okongwu and Saddiq Bey are eligible for rookie scale extensions. On its face, it should be somewhat a no-brainer to extend both. Okongwu is durable and one of the more productive per-minute bigs in the NBA. Bey is a good scorer, even if he remains a very inconsistent shooter.

But in the past two years, the Hawks have extended Trae Young, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter and re-signed John Collins. Those deals combine for over $457 million in remaining salary through 2026-27.

Extending both Okongwu and Bey seems like a no-go until Atlanta can clear out some of that committed salary. That’s especially true when you factor in that Dejounte Murray (who won’t extend, because it’s not lucrative enough for him to do so) is due for a new deal in 2024.

If Fields can move someone from that group that is already signed long-term, then Okongwu makes sense to extend. If Capela was traded, then Okongwu makes even more sense to extend. There’s an easy argument to be made that Okongwu might already be the better player anyway.

As for Bey, his spot is hard to peg. He overlaps positionally with both Collins and Hunter, and a bit with Bogdanovic, given how much time Bogdanovic logs at the three. Add to that mix that Jalen Johnson showed a lot of promise at the end of last season, and A.J. Griffin was a first-round pick just a year ago, and it’s hard to see where Bey fits long-term.

Moving on from some of the committed salary owed to the aforementioned group would have multiple benefits. It would clear up the books over the next few years, which would allow for upcoming extensions and re-signings.

It could also help the Hawks lower their tax bill for this season. Atlanta currently sits about $13 million over the tax line. That has them right up against being a Super Tax team, when you factor in signing their draft pick and filling out the roster.

Something has to give for the Hawks, who are far too expensive in the short- and long-term for an average team. Collins has been in trade rumors for years now. He’s owed $78.5 million through 2025-26. At $25.3 million for this season, with what has been a reduced role, that’s the first place Fields needs to look to shed some salary.

In 25 regular season games under Quin Snyder, Collins saw only 9.5 field goal attempts per game. That figure crept up to just 10 attempts in the postseason. In Snyder’s system, Collins doesn’t seem likely to get back to the 12 to 15 shots a night he needs to be at his best. Another team could see Collins as a guy who can still be a 20/10 player on solid shooting efficiency. If so, this is where Atlanta can begin rebalancing their cap sheet.

Capela is probably next up on the trade list, simply because his presence is blocking Okongwu from playing more, and he makes too much money to transition into a backup role. Neither Collins nor Capela will return a huge trade package, but the Hawks could recoup some of the draft picks they sent out for Murray last summer.

And Murray…oh boy is this one complicated. Atlanta gave up three first-round picks, plus a pick swap, for Murray ahead of free agency last year. While Murray wasn’t bad (he was quite good, actually), it’s fair to say things didn’t really go as planned. In the regular season, lineups featuring both Murray and Young were about neutral at +26 in 1,607 minutes. In the playoffs, that duo wasn’t very good. The Hawks were outscored by 42 points in the 136 minutes that Murray and Young shared the floor.

Murray isn’t good enough off-ball to be a secondary playmaker. He’s also not good enough, nor is Young willing enough, to take primary creator reps from the Hawks franchise player. What looked to be a somewhat odd pairing when the trade was made, played out almost exactly that way throughout the season.

Maybe Quin Snyder can unlock his star guard duo. He worked wonders with a Donovan Mitchell-Mike Conley backcourt. If so, everything is probably fine and you can add Murray to the list of guys who will get a hefty new deal for the Hawks.

If Snyder can’t figure out how to get Young and Murray to play well together, then the Hawks have to make a decision. Do they make the big trade and send Young out for a huge return? Or do they move on from Murray before he can walk as an unrestricted free agent in 2024, previous trade outlay be damned?

The Young-Murray questions, along with Okongwu’s and Bey’s next deals, are probably going to be answered as the year goes along. This summer, the Hawks might make a big deal to rebalance their books and start the consolidation process. Or it might be more of the same, with the hopes that Snyder is the key to figuring out a tantalizing but frustratingly inconsistent group.

Milwaukee Bucks

Offseason Approach: Re-sign key vets or move onto what’s next?

Actual Cap Space: -$90.5M

Practical Cap Space: -$88.7M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $46.8M

Under Contract (7): FULL ROSTER
Grayson Allen, Giannis Antetokounmpo, MarJon Beauchamp, Pat Connaughton, Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis, Lindell Wigginton (two-way)

Potential Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Thanasis Antetokounmpo (unrestricted), Jevon Carter (unrestricted – player option), Jae Crowder (unrestricted), Goran Dragic (unrestricted), A.J. Green (restricted – two-way), Joe Ingles (unrestricted), Meyers Leonard (unrestricted), Brook Lopez (unrestricted), Wesley Matthews (unrestricted), Khris Middleton (unrestricted – player option)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Taxpayer ($5,000,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: None

Analysis: 

The Milwaukee Bucks season ended in disappointment. After running to the NBA’s best regular season record, everything came crashing down for Milwaukee in the first round of the playoffs. They went out with a whimper in five games against the Miami Heat.

Now, the Bucks are left to pick up the pieces and figure out what’s next. And for what has been one of the NBA’s most-stable franchises over the past five seasons, that’s different territory.

The first change came on the sidelines. Mike Budenholzer is out after five years. In his place comes Adrian Griffin. Griffin is a long-time NBA assistant who will lead his own team for the first time. He was reportedly the top choice of Giannis Antetokounmpo, and we all know that goes a long way.

Beyond his star player’s endorsement, Griffin seems ready for the top job. He’s been a finalist several other times for head coach spots. He’s worked under some great head coaches. And, in recent years, first-time head coaches have seen a lot of success in the NBA.

On the court, the Bucks have a league-high-tying 10 potential free agents (knotted with the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns). That’s a lot of roster spots in flux around Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and a very solid core of role players in Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton.

Milwaukee’s 1 and 1A free agents are Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez. While Antetokounmpo and Holiday drive a lot of the Bucks success, Middleton and Lopez are right there too.

Middleton is coming off his worst season since landing in Milwaukee. He was never fully healthy throughout the season and underwent another surgery on his right knee following the season. Middleton will be 32 at the start of next season, and this is probably his last chance of cashing in on a big long-term deal. But should that deal come from the Bucks?

At this point, Milwaukee needs to be prepared that Middleton may top out somewhere between 50 and 60 regular season games. That’s not the end of the world, and might actually be best for his full-season health. And the Bucks have good wing depth already in place with Connaughton and Allen.

If the belief is that Middleton can get back to be close to the 20 points per game scorer he was, and can get back to doing it efficiently, then Milwaukee should re-sign him. If there’s any question about that, the Bucks need to consider letting Middleton walk.

A big part of that decision has as much to do with looming super tax concerns, as it does Middleton’s health and production. If Middleton’s deal comes in around an AAV of $25 million, then that’s perfectly doable. If it falls above $30 million, or approaches or tops $40 million, that could become too restrictive for the Bucks.

Part of that restrictiveness revolves around Lopez also hitting free agency this summer. Lopez bounced back from a back injury in 2021-22 to turn in his best all-around season. The veteran center has become the preeminent stretch-five in the league. He’s also an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate, making him a key player on both ends of the floor for Milwaukee.

Under normal circumstances, a contract of $25 million per season wouldn’t even be a question for Lopez. But Lopez is 35 years old. He was healthy last season, but missed most of the prior season. Is he going to repeat his shooting and defensive performances? If so, for how many more years?

One limiting factor for Lopez is Over-38 rule. He can functionally only sign a three-year contract, but that could work in Milwaukee’s favor. Other teams won’t really be able to outbid the Bucks by adding an extra year onto a deal. As laid out in the linked article, Milwaukee would do well to start Lopez’s next deal high and have it descend each year. That way, the salary goes down as his production possibly begins to wane.

In reality, to re-sign both Middleton and Lopez, the Bucks will likely need to commit a combined value of somewhere between $45 and $55 million for next season. And neither is likely to accept a deal that runs for just one season. The creates long-term tax issues.

Putting those two on the books for say $50 million (splitting the difference), along with Antetokounmpo, a likely new deal for Jrue Holiday in the summer of 2024 and filling out the roster, and the Bucks will probably be sitting above the super tax line.

That’s a tough spot for a small market team with an aging core to be in.

Because of that, unless they both take team-friendly-ish deals, Milwaukee might be choosing between Middleton and Lopez this summer. Part of that will also be presumably driven by the style that Griffin wants to play. If he wants to run and be switchable on defense, then Middleton is probably the guy. If he’s going to retain Budenholzer’s drop defense, and components of the former offense, then Lopez probably stays.

Beyond Middleton and Lopez, the Bucks have to make decisions on a host of role players. Joe Ingles and Jae Crowder are probably head-to-head for one spot. Both are basically backup 3/4 players now, and both bring different qualities. Crowder is the better rebounder, while Ingles is the better passer. They’re different, but equal as defenders. One probably stays, while the other will move on.

Jevon Carter has been a solid backup, and the Bucks would do well to retain him for a similar type of contract to the one he has now. Just keep adding an extra year with a player option until it no longer makes sense for one side or the other.

Meyers Leonard looks like he could stick as Lopez’s backup. He’d be a minimum signing, but he did a nice job in limited action last season. For a handful of regular season games, Leonard is good depth at the five.

Also, keep an eye on former two-way player A.J. Green. He can play and he’s probably an upgrade on Wesley Matthews at this point. If Milwaukee cleared out some of the guard logjam, Green might be able to handle some backup minutes in the regular season.

Outside help will have to come via trade, pending what happens with Middleton and Lopez. Milwaukee can probably maneuver to a place to have to the $5 million Taxpayer MLE available to them, and that could help them bring in a targeted veteran. If Middleton and/or Lopez moves on, then the Bucks should have the full Non-Taxpayer MLE, but they’d also have a big rotation hole to fill too.

This feels like a bit of a transition year for Milwaukee. They are getting older, but Adrian Griffin will infuse a new energy to the team. And they still have Giannis Antetokounmpo. That’s a better starting point than almost any other team in the league. They got him the coach he wanted. This summer, the Bucks have to fill out a roster around Antetokounmpo that keeps them and him in title contention in both the short- and long-term.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Offseason Approach: Fill out the rotation around the core

Actual Cap Space: -$50.6M

Practical Cap Space: -$43M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$37M

Under Contract (9): FULL ROSTER
Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Sam Merrill (non-guaranteed), Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Isaac Okoro, Cedi Osman (non-guaranteed), Ricky Rubio, Dean Wade

Potential Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Mamadi Diakite (restricted – two-way), Danny Green (unrestricted), Caris LeVert (unrestricted), Robin Lopez (unrestricted), Isaiah Mobley (restricted – two-way), Raul Neto (unrestricted), Lamar Stevens (restricted – team option), Dylan Windler (restricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer ($12,221,000), Bi-Annual ($4,448,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Ochai Agbaji ($3,918,360)

First Round Draft Picks: None

Analysis: 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are coming off their best season of the second post-LeBron era. Cleveland made it back to the postseason, and they seem like a lock to be there for years to come. The Cavs have a nice young core of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.

Now, it’s about fleshing out the depth around that foursome.

The Cavs have basically half of a roster to fill out. That’s not terrible, because they have a lot of rotation spots spoken for. But that’s still a lot of work to do.

Of their own free agents, the main player is Caris LeVert. The veteran wing is coming off one of the most efficient seasons of his career, as he maintained his scoring, while upping his three-point percentage to 39%.

LeVert basically split the season between starting and coming off the bench. He was more efficient as a starter, but remained plenty effective while leading bench units. Ideally, he’d probably come off the bench, as a high-usage playmaker. That removes some of the awkwardness of him, Garland and Mitchell all being best with the ball in their hands.

That leaves the question: What can you pay a sixth man on a contender? LeVert made $18.8 million last season. He’ll be 29 years old ahead of next season, so this is probably his last chance to cash in. Almost all of the cap space teams could use an on-ball creator of his ilk. All of that means the Cavaliers will likely have to pay to keep LeVert.

Cleveland has preferred to lock in players long-term when they can. Given the roster is heading towards a new level of expensiveness, there are two schools of thought on how to handle LeVert. You could offer him less money per year, while trying to sign him for the next four or five years. Or you could offer him a bit more money, with the idea that he becomes a nice part of salary-matching in a deal, should the team trip into Super Tax territory over the next few seasons.

Something around $80 million guaranteed probably makes sense for LeVert. In an ideal world, the Cavs would frontload the deal and have it descend over the next four to five seasons, and the final season would either be non-guaranteed or a player option. But LeVert may have enough options that he could force a more standard-type of contract.

Cleveland will probably pick up their team option for Lamar Stevens. He’s a good bargain for wing depth at just above the minimum.

That leaves the Cavaliers with needing to add another big wing, fill out their frontcourt depth, while also adding another backcourt option. They could run it back with Robin Lopez and Raul Neto for the minimum, as both were good locker room vets

If that’s the approach, along with re-signing LeVert to a reasonable deal, GM Koby Altman should have enough room to squeeze in a full Non-Taxpayer MLE signing. And that $12 million is a nice chunk of spending power this summer.

Cleveland needs to get better on the wing, with or without LeVert. Isaac Okoro (more on him later) hasn’t been the answer, despite slow and steady improvement each season. That leaves the Cavs with needing a wing that can start alongside the core four and, ideally, close games too.

Wing options that could make sense for the MLE could include Bruce Brown (who is likely to get priced out in Denver), Dillon Brooks, Kelly Oubre Jr., Donte DiVincenzo and Gary Trent Jr. (if his market doesn’t develop as he’s hoping for). All of those players would bring either defense, size, shooting or some combination of those skills to the Cavs.

If Cleveland wanted to go a little bigger and to fill out the frontcourt with some or all of the MLE, Georges Niang, Trey Lyles, Jalen McDaniels or Christian Wood could make sense. P.J. Washington and Grant Williams would also be good targets, but the $12 million the Cavaliers can do in an offer sheet probably isn’t enough to get their incumbent teams to balk on matching.

As far as extensions this summer go, keep an eye on LeVert. If he’s not looking for a very big enough raise that he has to hit free agency, LeVert could be one of those late extensions that keeps him from hitting free agency at all.

Donovan Mitchell is also extension-eligible, but it’s probably a year too early for that. Mitchell is more of a logical extension candidate a year from now.

Okoro is the only other reasonable extension candidate for Cleveland. He’s up for a rookie scale extension. The Cavs would probably like to keep Okoro, but they’d need his extension to be fairly team friendly to make it feasible. Think of something like the four-year, $28 million extension that Nassir Little inked with the Portland Trail Blazers a year ago.

Okoro has improved year over year, but that improvement has been incremental vs leaps and bounds. He’s also best as a shooting guard, and that spot is filled with Mitchell. That puts both Okoro and Cleveland in a tough spot. He’s probably best to bet on himself and see if he can make a real jump next season. That would put him in the driver’s seat in restricted free agency in 2024.

Cleveland is a good team, playoff disappointment aside. They have a real chance to contend in the Eastern Conference in the coming years. Eventually a max, or near-max, extension will be coming for Evan Mobley. And then Donovan Mitchell will need a new deal shortly after. That’s how tight this window is for the Cavs. Nailing some value signings this summer will go a long way towards giving the Cavaliers the depth they need to go from good to great.

LA Clippers

Offseason Approach: Run it back and hope for better health

Actual Cap Space: -$95M

Practical Cap Space: -$91.5M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: -$42.3M

Under Contract (13): FULL ROSTER
Nicolas Batum, Brandon Boston Jr. (non-guaranteed), Amir Coffey, Robert Covington, Paul George, Eric Gordon (non-guaranteed), Bones Hyland, Kawhi Leonard, Terance Mann, Marcus Morris Sr., Norman Powell, Jason Preston (non-guaranteed), Ivica Zubac

Potential Free Agents (4): FULL LIST
Moussa Diabate (restricted – two-way), Xavier Moon (restricted – two-way), Mason Plumlee (unrestricted), Russell Westbrook (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: None (due to being over the Second Tax Apron)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Reggie Jackson ($2,134,843)

First Round Draft Picks: #30

Analysis: 

The new CBA is set up to punish the most expensive teams in the NBA. For now, the Super Tax penalties have turned their Sauron-like eye towards the LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors. While the Clippers don’t have the immediate concerns of the Warriors this summer, the eye is trained on them for the longer-term.

In a regular offseason, LA would be in a position to re-sign Mason Plumlee using his Bird rights and then to give Russell Westbrook the Taxpayer MLE. Outside of a smaller trade or two, this team would probably mostly run it back.

But the Super Tax is coming and it’s going to hit the Clippers hard. This season is their last chance at making significant changes under the current rules surrounding trades, signings and the draft. Or LA could take this opportunity to get their books in order and try to shed some of their less-desirable salary that stretches beyond this season.

Let’s start with what’s most likely to happen. That’s re-signing Mason Plumlee and trying to re-sign Russell Westbrook.

Plumlee was productive in the backup center behind Ivica Zubac. It would make sense to bring him back on a two-year deal that gives him around $10 million in guaranteed money. Ideally, that second season would be either non-guaranteed or a team option. That would allow the Clippers to move on. Given he has a guaranteed 20-24-minutes per night in LA, Plumlee would probably return for that $10 million or so.

Westbrook is a little harder to peg. He was much better with the Clippers than he was with the Los Angeles Lakers. Westbrook started and did a nice job running the team and shot far better after his move down the hall. He’s got enough left to be a decent starting point guard, especially on a team where his roll can be slightly lessened.

The challenge for LA is that they can only offer Westbrook a minimum contract. Because the one Super Tax penalty that starts this offseason is the loss of the Taxpayer MLE, the Clippers won’t be able to bump Westbrook’s salary at all.

Because he’s a 10-year-plus veteran. Westbrook’s actual salary would be $3.1 million on a minimum deal. Unless a guard-needy team was to offer him more than the Taxpayer MLE amount of $5 million, that $1.9 million might not be a deal-breaker. The guess here is that staying home in Los Angeles and coming back to a team where he’ll start, will win out over the opportunity to make a little bit more money.

The Clippers will also have a first-round pick, and it’s pretty important the they do one of two things with that pick: Either nail it and get a low-cost rotation player for the next few years (hugely important for Super Tax teams). Or LA can put that pick in a package to try and clear off some long-term salary. (This pick would have to be traded after the selection was made due to the Stepien Rule, but that’s a very common thing.)

The long-term salaries that the Clippers could be looking to move off of could include Norman Powell, Terance Mann, Amir Coffey or possibly Zubac. Powell, Mann and Zubac are all key rotation guys, but something has to give eventually. And both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard could opt out for bigger and longer deals in the summer of 2024. This is a chance to re-set the books a little bit.

Powell’s situation could be complicated by the presence of Eric Gordon. Gordon is likely to see his deal get guaranteed, because cutting him loose doesn’t create enough flexibility for LA to do much. And Gordon can still play. Having all of him Powell and Mann coming off the bench seems like a bit of overkill.

Moving Powell would free up a little flexibility this summer (if combined with another move), but would really free up a long-term salary commitment moving forward. If Gordon holds up, and nothing suggests he won’t for another couple of years, he could be re-signed after this season, or possibly even extended, for less that Powell is set to make.

The other option is to laugh in the face of the Super Tax and to take on even more long-term salary.

Given the limitations of aggregating salary together in trades starting with the 2024 offseason, this is the Clippers last chance to go big in a trade. They’ve got $40.5 million in expiring salary for the trip of Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington and Marcus Morris Sr. If you add Powell to the mix, that’s over $58.5 million in tradable salary.

The Clippers aren’t really scared of the financial penalties that come with the super tax. What’s scary are the limitations on filling out the roster. Because of that, this is their last chance to go big. If a star unexpectedly shakes loose, the Clippers can get there with the matching salary with relative ease. They’ve also got a couple of tradable picks in the outer years, that might not be quite as tradable when the full Super Tax penalties kick in.

The Clippers have to hope for better health next season. It’s also important to value the regular season a bit more, if for no other reason than making their path easier They’ve tried the load management approach and they weren’t any healthier for it. Next season is probably going to see them push a bit harder during the regular season.

This season seems like the “all-in” year for LA. George and Leonard aren’t getting any younger they can both be free agents. The depth is there, and so are the trade opportunities. This could be the year the Clippers turn that potential into production and make a real run. If not now, it might be never.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Offseason Approach: Extensions and rebuilding depth around an All-Star trio

Actual Cap Space: -$66.7M

Practical Cap Space: $62.8M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $18M

Under Contract (10): FULL ROSTER
Kyle Anderson, Mike Conley ($14,320,000 guaranteed), Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Jordan McLaughlin (non-guaranteed), Josh Minott, Wendell Moore Jr., Taurean Prince (non-guaranteed), Karl-Anthony Towns

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (restricted), Luka Garza (restricted – two-way), Nathan Knight (restricted – team option), Jaylen Nowell (unrestricted), Naz Reid (unrestricted), Austin Rivers (unrestricted), Matt Ryan (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer ($12,221,000), Bi-Annual ($4,448,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: D’Angelo Russell ($3,688,117), Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,374,000)

First Round Draft Picks: None

Analysis: 

The Minnesota Timberwolves overcame a rocky start and injuries to make it through the Play-In Tournament and into the playoffs. That stay was short, but just making the playoffs in back-to-back seasons was an accomplishment for the Wolves.

Minnesota is looking for more moving forward. Just making the playoffs is no longer enough.

Such is life when you have three players who are closing in on making as almost as much as the entire salary cap by themselves.

Karl-Anthony Towns is signed long-term, as he has one year left before his four-year, $224 million extension even kicks in. Rudy Gobert has three years and $131.5 million left on his deal. And Anthony Edwards could hit Designated Player status by making All-NBA, which would qualify him to extend for almost $250 million over five years.

That’s where we’ll start, as extensions are the most important order of business for Tim Connelly and the Timberwolves front office this summer.

Edwards is a bona fide super star. He’s one of the league’s best scorers already, and he’s continually becoming a better shooter. He’s also an improved playmaker and rebounder too. Edwards is going to get a max extension. Whether that extension will be for $250 million or $207 million will be dependent on Edwards making All-NBA or not.

But Edwards isn’t the Wolves only extension candidate. Jaden McDaniels is also due for a new deal. McDaniels went up several levels a player in his third season. He became a full-time starter and delivered career-best almost across the board. The most exciting improvement came with his shooting, as McDaniels almost hit 40% from behind the arc and nearly 52% overall.

To add to that, McDaniels should have garnered an All-Defense nod. He was a shutdown guy on both perimeter players and interior players. In fact, you can make a case that he was the Timberwolves best all-around player, as the rest of the roster leans heavily towards offense or defense.

McDaniels deserves a big extension too. The four-year, $90 million deals that Mikal Bridges and De’Andre Hunter previously signed should be the baseline. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see McDaniels get even more, given where the salary cap is headed over the life his extension.

After they take care of extending their young players, Minnesota needs to turn to rebuilding some of their depth. It’s not likely that both Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid will be back. Nowell seems stuck behind Edwards on the wing, and they aren’t a great pairing together. He’ll probably move on for a bigger role elsewhere.

That could be the same issue for Reid. He’s a good player, but he’s behind both Gobert and Towns for frontcourt minutes in Minnesota. The Wolves also have to be careful in how much they invest in a backup big man, given the rising costs for the rest of the roster. Reid may just have more money and more minutes available to him with another team.

The other two main free agents are Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Austin Rivers. The veteran Rivers is the easier case. If he wants to come back for the minimum, there will probably be a spot for him.

Alexander-Walker’s situation is a little harder to project. He’s coming off his best season in the NBA, but that bar was pretty low. He got minutes in the postseason after McDaniels fractured his hand, but the fourth-year guard’s performance was pretty mixed. If the Wolves can get back Alexander-Walker on a small enough deal that they can still use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE, then he’s worth bring back. If it gets to be more $4 or $5 million, Minnesota can find better options in free agency.

That leaves the Wolves having to add a backup big man, some depth on the wing and, ideally, another backup for Mike Conley at point guard.

The Wolves should have the full MLE of $12.2 million to spend this summer. That’s a nice piece of spending power and could get them a valuable player. For example, the Denver Nuggets wouldn’t be able to match that salary for Bruce Brown, and Brown’s versatile game would fit Minnesota’s rotation perfectly, while weakening a division rival. If not Brown, someone like Donte DiVincenzo, Max Strus or Lonnie Walker would make sense. If they wanted to go with more of a veteran option, Josh Richardson or Seth Curry would add depth to the guard group.

Up front, the Timberwolves should be able to pick off a bargain signing, if Reid leaves town. Someone like Drew Eubanks, Thomas Bryant, or Moritz Wagner could be good minimum signings. Oddly enough, Kevin Love could make sense, if he wanted to finish his career where it started for the minimum. With Towns and Gobert already in place, we’re talking about a 10 to 15 minutes a night player, who could also step up if either of the All-Star level bigs needed to miss time. This should be a minimum signing, unless it’s bringing back Reid on a team-friendly deal.

Behind Conley, Minnesota should be able to find a value veteran. Reggie Jackson, Jevon Carter, Dennis Smith Jr. and Cory Joseph could all make sense. Jordan McLaughlin should also be back, but one more solid guard to round out the depth makes sense for the Wolves.

Minnesota took their big swing last summer with the Gobert trade. That deal didn’t take the team to new heights, but they also got only 29 games out of the twin towers pairing, because of Towns’ injury. Better health, solid point guard play for a full season (which Conley should deliver) and further growth from Edwards and McDaniels, and it’s all right there for the Wolves.

The big key? Adding depth now. By the time the 2024-25 season starts, this squad could be very, very expensive. By that point, it will be hard for the Timberwolves to add much else to this roster. And they don’t have all of their picks to work with moving forward either. This is the year to flesh out the roster in hopes of contending in the Western Conference over the next three to four seasons.

Brooklyn Nets

Offseason Approach: Resetting around young talent and flexibility

Actual Cap Space: -$66.6M

Practical Cap Space: $64.8M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $7.1M

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER
Mikal Bridges, Nicolas Claxton, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, RaiQuan Gray (two-way), Joe Harris, Patty Mills, Royce O’Neale ($2.5 million guaranteed), Day’Ron Sharpe, Ben Simmons, Edmond Sumner (non-guaranteed), Cameron Thomas

Potential Free Agents (5): FULL LIST
Seth Curry (unrestricted), David Duke Jr. (restricted), Cameron Johnson (restricted), Dru Smith (restricted – two-way), Yuta Watanabe (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Taxpayer ($5,000,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Kevin Durant ($18,131,946), Kyrie Irving ($4,494,702)

First Round Draft Picks: #21, #22

Analysis: 

The Brooklyn Nets are once again attempting to reset after seeing their stars leave town. Only this time, the Nets are doing it with good talent already and with some future draft picks in hand.

When he traded Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving ahead of the trade deadline, Brooklyn GM Sean Marks brought back good talent in the form of Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson, as well as solid role players in Dorian Finney-Smith and Spencer Dinwiddie. Those four combined with Nicolas Claxton, and some veterans, to get the Nets into the playoffs. That stay was short-lived, but Brooklyn has a lot to build around moving forward.

Bridges and Finny-Smith are both signed for at least two more seasons, and Brooklyn can match any offer that Johnson gets this summer. Those three, along with Claxton, are likely to make up the new core of the team over the next few years.

The Nets would like the fifth member of that core to be Ben Simmons, considering they owe him $78.2 million guaranteed over the next two years. To this point, Simmons has appeared in only 42 games in a season-plus with Brooklyn. If, and it’s a pretty big if, Simmons gets healthy and regains his form, the Nets will be set with a pretty good group of wings and forwards.

Dinwiddie and Joe Harris, once the jewels of Marks’ first Brooklyn rebuild, both have one season left on their deals. They could either be back as rotation players, or packaged together in a trade to get the team some win-now help. Royce O’Neale will probably be back, as he should have his deal guaranteed. And Patty Mills has one more year left on his contract too. If nothing else, this veteran foursome adds up to $56.6 million in expiring salary for the Nets to use in trades.

One minor challenge for this coming season, in no small part due to Simmons’ $37.9 million salary, is the luxury tax. Brooklyn is likely to go back over the tax line next season, if only temporarily, once they re-sign Johnson. It’s unlikely a team will be able to craft an offer sheet enticing enough to get the Nets to blink on matching a deal for Johnson. But this could be a chance for rival teams to force Marks to pay up, after the Brooklyn GM forced so many of his peers to match offer sheets the first time he rebuilt his team.

Because of that looming tax bill, the Nets will likely only have the $5 million Taxpayer MLE to work with this summer for signing free agents. Given they are probably a middle-of-the-pack team in the Eastern Conference next season, it’s unclear if ownership will want to further add to an already expensive roster.

The good news? Brooklyn’s cap sheet clears up considerably after this season. They’ll still have one more year of Simmons, but after that it’s likely Bridges (on a very team-friendly deal), Finney-Smith (fairly paid) and probably a re-signed Johnson and Claxton on new contracts. Add a few players on rookie scale deals, and the Nets are in pretty good shape.

With their two 2023 draft picks, it’s important Brooklyn finds players who can be contributors by the end of their rookie deals. Having rotation players on the value rookie scale contracts provide, will be key as the team looks to sign and re-sign players in the future.

Of their other current free agents beyond Johnson, it’s likely that Seth Curry will move on. A contender will probably value his shooting ability more than the Nets will want to re-sign Curry for heading into his age-33 season.

Yuta Watanabe could be re-signed as he brought great energy to the team, as well as much-improved shooting. The forward rotation is getting a little full, but there should be room for Watanabe, if someone else doesn’t offer him a richer deal.

This season for the Nets is likely to be a bit of a step backwards. Instead of competing for homecourt advantage, Brooklyn will probably be fighting around the Play-In Tournament line. Such is life when you trade away three superstars in the span of one year.

But that’s ok.

The Nets have done well in this spot before. Marks and team have done a good job mining for diamonds in the rough before. And that was without any draft picks to work with. This time around, Marks is down a couple of his own picks (from the James Harden acquisition), but he does have some picks coming from Phoenix and Philadelphia going forward.

The cupboard isn’t nearly as bare as last time Marks had to rebuild the Nets. There’s good talent in place, along with some draft picks. If Marks can do some diamond-mining again, along with making some smart trades to shed some salary and smart signings, the Nets will be back in contention quickly.

The real questions then become: Will the Nets stay patient with what they’ve built this time around? Or will they bend to the next set of stars that want to play together in Brooklyn?

Oklahoma City Thunder

Offseason Approach: Plenty of spending power without many holes to fill

Actual Cap Space: -$29M

Practical Cap Space: $32.2M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $60.2M

Under Contract (13): FULL ROSTER
Ousmane Dieng, Lu Dort, Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Joe (non-guaranteed), Tre Mann, Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (non-guaranteed), Aaron Wiggins (non-guaranteed), Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams

Potential Free Agents (4): FULL LIST
Jared Butler (restricted – two-way), Dario Saric (unrestricted), Olivier Sarr (restricted – two-way), Lindy Waters III (restricted – team option)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Room ($7,609,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #12

Analysis: 

The Oklahoma City Thunder took a big step forward last season. They were competitive until the very end of the regular season, before falling in the Play-In Tournament.

That progress has everyone rightly excited for this young, talented group. Now, they have an offseason without a lot of decisions to make, but one that’s filled with potential too.

On first glance, there aren’t any clear needs for the Thunder. They’ve got some really good guards and wings. The bigs are probably a position of need, but they’ll also have Chet Holmgren debuting next season. The depth is a work in progress, but there are a lot of players who show real promise.

The Thunder have 13 players under contract already for next season. No one projects as an easy cut either. Isaiah Joe had a breakout season, becoming the efficient volume shooter that everyone hoped he could be. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl didn’t have as good of a sophomore year as his rookie season, but he can still play. Aaron Wiggins became a rotation regular, as he put together a 51/39/83 shooting season. All three project to stick on the roster for next season.

Of the free agents, Jared Butler and Olivier Sarr were fine as two-way players. Either one, or both, could return on another two-way deal. Dario Saric played well for the Thunder and looks like he’s regained his form his ACL tear in the 2021 Finals, but he’ll probably get squeezed by the roster crunch.

Lindy Waters III is probably in the toughest spot. He earned a standard NBA deal, but didn’t do a lot with the minutes he got. But he’s got good size for a guard and he can shoot it a bit. His team option will probably get picked up, and Waters will go to camp to fight for a roster spot.

All of that leaves Oklahoma City with precious few roster spots. At most, they might have two or three spots open. One of those will presumably go to their 2023 first-round pick at #12 overall.

From there, the Thunder project to have more than $32 million to spend in free agency. That’s…a lot.

If we think back to 2017, the Philadelphia 76ers were ready to push things forward. They had a lot of young talent in place and had some cap space. That summer the Sixers gave J.J. Redick a one-year, $23 million contract. Most screamed overpay, and it probably was, but that move served as a stabilizer for Philadelphia. Redick filled a need and helped the young 76ers grow into a playoff team.

Oklahoma City is positioned to make a similar type of move this summer.

The Thunder don’t have to spread their cap space around to fill four or five roster spots. They also don’t have to go all-in on handing a veteran player a big four-year deal in excess of $100 million.

The Thunder can do something similar to the 2017 Sixers. They can target a single player to fill a need and they can overpay that player for a year or two, if necessary. The key is to keep a deal short enough doesn’t eat into any of the flexibility long-term.

For example, let’s say Thunder GM Sam Presti and coach Mark Daigneault (one of the up-and-coming best coaches in the league) decide what they need is true five to help Chet Holmgren transition to the NBA. (Or maybe they decide Holmgren is more of a four than a five, which is still an open question). The Thunder could hand a contract worth $25 million or more per season to Brook Lopez or Nikola Vucevic or Jakob Poeltl. The key will be to keep that deal short enough (no more than two seasons), that if it goes sideways, OKC isn’t on the hook for very long.

If the Thunder feel good about Holmgren at the five, they could turn towards bringing in a true four to play next to him. In that case, veterans like Jerami Grant or Harrison Barnes could be in play. If they wanted to play in the restricted market, Oklahoma City could craft big enough offer sheets for Grant Williams (this team is cornering the market on Williamses), P.J. Washington or K.J. Martin that their teams could be in a tough spot to match.

Despite a good collection of wing talent, maybe a swing forward like Kyle Kuzma could be a target, or restricted free agent Cam Johnson.

In the case of the restricted players (Williams, Washington, Martin or Johnson) or Kuzma, you could feel good about going to a longer deal, because they are young enough to stay good investments throughout three or four years.

The main point is that the Thunder are in a great place with cap space to spend. And now is the time to spend that cap space.

The cap sheet stays pretty clean for Oklahoma City for as far out as salaries currently go. The only players locked in to long-term salaries who aren’t on rookie scale or minimum deals are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (worth every penny of his max deal), Lu Dort (worth every penny of his four-year, $67.2 million that he’s owed) and Kenrich Williams (worth every penny of his great-value four-year, $27.2 million extension).

The challenge for the Thunder is going to rapidly become roster spots. They’ve got 13 players under contract for next season already and 13 (including their 2023 first-rounder) for 2024-25. And OKC could also have up to four picks in the 2024 NBA Draft.

Eventually, Presti is going to have to do a consolidation trade or two. You can only roster 15 players on standard contracts, and the Thunder are pressing up against that marker. That’s why the Thunder can, and should, spend big to bring in a targeted veteran free agent this summer. That signing, combined with Holmgren and continued improvement from a young roster, can help Oklahoma City go from fun up-and-comer to a real problem in the Western Conference.

The scary part? It won’t even cost the Thunder any long-term flexibility to do it either. As the roster develops, they’ll still be able to fill whatever needs emerge. The next big extension (Josh Giddey), won’t kick in until the 2025-26 season. That’s a two-year window to figure out who fits with the core and what holes Oklahoma City has to fill.

The Thunder got good at least a year ahead of schedule. But they’re here now. They can’t, and won’t, go backwards. The roster and Daigneault are too good for that. With the right addition, Oklahoma City won’t be messing around in the Play-In Tournament next spring. They’ll be hosting a first-round playoff game.

Chicago Bulls

Offseason Approach: Run it back, retool or reset?

Actual Cap Space: -$63.4M

Practical Cap Space: -$59.8M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $46.5M

Under Contract (8): FULL ROSTER
Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan, Carlik Jones (non-guaranteed), Zach LaVine, Marko Simonovic (non-guaranteed), Dalen Terry, Patrick Williams

Potential Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Patrick Beverley (unrestricted), Ayo Dosunmu (restricted), Andre Drummond (unrestricted – player option), Javonte Green (unrestricted), Derrick Jones Jr. (unrestricted – player option), Justin Lewis (restricted – two-way), Terry Taylor (restricted – two-way), Nikola Vucevic (unrestricted), Coby White (restricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer ($12,221,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,448,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: None

Analysis: 

The Chicago Bulls are sitting in a kind of tough spot. They aren’t a bad team. They have productive talent. They are playoff contenders.

On the flip side, the Bulls aren’t a very good team. The talent they have is aging or injury-prone. And they aren’t title contenders.

There’s no easy path here for the Bulls. If they were to let Nikola Vucevic walk in free agency, trade DeMar DeRozan and/or Zach LaVine, they’d be hitting a major reset. If they re-sign Vucevic and keep the All-Star wings, they’re locking into a team that will probably push for a playoff spot, but not much more.

The major problem for Chicago with either path is that they’re going to have to work around Lonzo Ball and his contract. Ball has two years and $41.8 million left on his deal. It’s unclear if he’ll make it back on the court from his latest surgery. However, it is clear that Ball is going to keep trying and seems to have no intention of retiring. And that $21.4 million player option for 2024-25 is as good as exercised already.

The guess here is that the Bulls re-sign Nikola Vucevic to a reasonable contract that rewards his production, while remaining tradable. Something in the two- or three-year range with about $50 to $60 million guaranteed feels about right. Vucevic isn’t perfect, but he’s a walking double-double and an efficient offensive player.

From there, Chicago seemed to like what Patrick Beverley brought to the team. It’s possible that they could give him a chunk of the MLE, but getting him back on a minimum deal would be best. He shot terribly while with the Bulls, and that’s unlikely to get a whole lot better. But Beverley was a good defender and a solid locker room presence.

The other free agents are more of a mixed bag. Coby White put together his most efficient season, but he looks like he might top out as a reserve combo guard. Ayo Dosunmu didn’t do enough to build on an encouraging rookie season, but he has shown that he can play. The guess here is that one is back, while the other one moves on.

Up front, Andre Drummond would be fine as a backup five for $3.4 million. He remains an elite rebounder and solid finisher inside. Drummond’s fate could be tied to that of Vucevic. If the Bulls are re-signing Vucevic, Drummond might look for a bigger role elsewhere.

Derrick Jones Jr. and Javonte Green are coming off productive, but imbalanced seasons. Jones sort of found a role late in the year as a super small-ball five. Green was good when he played, but missed considerable time due to injuries. Both players are probably in the same spot where they could be back, but the Bulls aren’t going to extend very far to do so.

As far as outside talent goes, getting another playable wing, a playmaker at point guard and a backup combo big seem like priorities. Chicago should have the $12.2 million MLE available. That should be enough to fill one of those spots, if not both with value signings. Bruce Brown would be an ideal wing target, if he gets priced out of Denver. Same with Max Strus, if Miami can’t afford him. If Miami keeps Strus, Gabe Vincent would be a logical MLE candidate for Chicago. Dennis Smith Jr. had a nice comeback season, and he could make sense given the Bulls shooting around him. Up front, guys like Georges Niang, Trey Lyles and Jalen McDaniels could all fill a role. If he got priced out in Minnesota, Naz Reid would make a lot of sense for a chunk of the MLE too.

Of the team’s younger players, Patrick Williams has to have a bigger role next season. He upped his three-point shooting in both volume and percentage. Williams also improved his off-the-dribble game. This season is an opportunity for the team’s veterans to cede even more responsibility towards Williams, as his growth is paramount.

Dalen Terry’s rookie season was mostly spent watching. He rarely played meaningful NBA minutes. In the G League, Terry flashed the ability that made him a mid-first-round pick. There’s talent there, and Terry should be ready to take on a bigger role.

The guess here is that Chicago isn’t ready to hit the reset button. LaVine is signed long-term and has been terrific. DeRozan has at least another good year in him. Vucevic should be productive on a fair value deal. If Williams can take on a bigger role, so much the better. The ability to fill out the bench is there, provided they use the MLE smartly.

The albatross remains Ball’s uncertain future. The hope is that he can make it back and resume a productive career leading Chicago’s offense. If not, Arturas Karnisovas needs to figure out how to work around Ball’s contract. The Bulls also finally paid off the remaining debt to the Orlando Magic, but they now transition into owing a future first to the San Antonio Spurs. Far from impossible, but just another thing they have to work around.

The relative lack of immediate flexibility makes it unlikely Chicago makes major changes this summer. As long as they don’t give out deals that are too large or too long, that should be fine. The core is solid for at least another year or two. Hit the right role players around them, combined with growth from the kids, and this team should be in the playoffs next season.

New Orleans Pelicans

Offseason Approach: Minimal ways to add to a roster that needs to get and stay healthy

Actual Cap Space: -$79.4M

Practical Cap Space: -$68.5M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $7.7M

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER
Jose Alvarado (non-guaranteed), Dyson Daniels, Brandon Ingram, Kira Lewis Jr., E.J. Liddell (two-way), C.J. McCollum, Trey Murphy III, Larry Nance Jr., Dereon Seabron (two-way), Garrett Temple (non-guaranteed), Jonas Valanciunas, Zion Williamson

Potential Free Agents (5): FULL LIST
Jaxson Hayes (restricted), Willy Hernangomez (unrestricted – team option), Herb Jones (restricted – team option), Naji Marshall (restricted – team option), Josh Richardson (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Taxpayer ($5,000,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #14

Analysis: 

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a bit of a weird spot as the offseason starts. They are bumping up against the luxury tax, but they aren’t a playoff team. The potential is there, but you’re left wondering if they’ll ever get and stay healthy enough to realize it.

Brandon Ingram is now over halfway through the max deal he signed a few years ago. Zion Williamson is just starting his new max deal this summer. C.J. McCollum has three years and $99.8 million left on his deal, after his two-year extension.

For this coming season only, those three players combine to make over $103 million. That leaves precious little wiggle room to work with, especially when you factor in that Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr. combine to add nearly $26 million in salary for the upcoming season.

This is where we can point out that all five of those players are good players. All five have complementary skill sets and you can play four of the five together. And having Nance around to back up both Williamson and Valanciunas is a positive.

However, the foursome of Ingram, Williamson, McCollum and Valanciunas played in only 10 games together last season. This is after zero games together in 2021-22, as Williamson missed the entire season.

10 games over two seasons. For a core that is now making over $118 million combined. That’s simply not enough.

At the risk of being boring, almost nothing New Orleans does will matter this summer if those 10 games don’t turn into somewhere in the neighborhood of 50-60 games. That’s pricing in the fact that Williamson seems a good bet to miss at least 20 games, and there will be some games where he’ll play and others will sit.

If you believe you can get 50-60 games out of that core foursome, the Pelicans can feel comfortable going about adding to their roster. They can even feel comfortable about dipping into the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history.

If the Pelicans are unsure or, worse, don’t believe that they’ll keep that core group on the floor, then it’s probably best to run it back and make some minor upgrades around the edges of the rotation. And, as they have each season or their existence, dodge the luxury tax once again.

You might wonder why the tax is such a focal point. It’s simply because New Orleans projects to hit the offseason with less than $10 million in space under the tax line. That’s very little wiggle room for a team that could do to add some depth.

We get there because of the large salaries we called out previously, but also the fact that the Pelicans don’t have many offseason decisions to make to create much more flexibility.

Most of New Orleans decisions this summer are in their control and they seem pretty cut-and-dry. It’s highly likely Garrett Temple will be waived rather than the team carrying his $5.4 million on their books. Conversely, Jose Alvarado is a steal at $1.8 million, so his deal will become fully guaranteed.

Speaking of steals, the Pels have interesting decisions to make with two wings that have shined as developmental projects. New Orleans has team options for both Herb Jones and Naji Marshall for this upcoming season, at $1.8 million and $1.9 million respectively. Those are bargains for what both bring to the roster.

Should the Pelicans decline those team options, they’d be able to make both Jones and Marshall restricted free agents. However, the process isn’t quite that simple.

For Jones, the team can make him a restricted free agent in the summer of 2024 when his deal runs out. Effectively, New Orleans can keep him on one of the best values in the entire NBA at $1.8 million and just delay the restricted free agency process for a year. Doing so would keep Jones’ number down this year, while also allowing him to reach full Bird status in 2024, and avoiding a potentially messy Arenas Provision situation as an Early Bird free agent this summer.

On the flip side, Jones is already an All-Defense level player (he should already have those honors, but we digress) and he’s improving his offensive game. If Jones has a breakout offensive season, he could end up costing the Pelicans a lot more a year from now.

Given the tight finances in the immediate, it’s likely that Pelicans VP of basketball ops David Griffin will just pick up Jones’ option and let his next deal become next summer’s problem.

For Marshall, he’s in a bit of a different boat. He’s only got one season left. He’s either playing it out this year and going to unrestricted free agency in 2024, or he can be made a restricted free agent this summer.

Given that Marshall is a good, but not great, rotation player, New Orleans probably also picks up his option. If they were to lose Marshall next summer in unrestricted free agency, they’ve got the depth to cover for him at the forward position between Ingram, Jones and Trey Murphy III.

As for the Pelicans other roster decisions, Jaxson Hayes is the biggest remaining question. New Orleans may choose to forgo tendering Hayes a qualifying offer, out of fear that he could simply sign it for $7.7 million guaranteed salary it would give him. That would remove any of the wiggle room that New Orleans has under the luxury tax line. Hayes simply hasn’t shown enough in his first four seasons to take that kind of risk. The Pelicans can replace him with a minimum-salary signing at the backup center spot behind Valanciunas.

On that note, New Orleans will likely decline their team option for Willy Hernangomez too. He is a candidate to re-sign for the minimum, as he’s well-liked in the locker room. Hernangomez has also been productive as a third center.

The other free agent, Josh Richardson, was a necessary add for backcourt depth at last season’s trade deadline, but it always seemed like a short-term stay for him in New Orleans. The Pelicans want Dyson Daniels to blossom into that third-guard role, following a mostly promising rookie season. Richardson is likely playing elsewhere next season.

As you can probably tell, the Pelicans might be a lot of “what you see, is what you get” at the moment. They could probably pick off a value signing at the level of the $5 million Taxpayer MLE. Anything past that will push them over the tax line and could even incur a hard cap. That seems like a no-go for a franchise that needs a lot of other things to go right, before becoming overly expensive.

There’s always the chance that Griffin takes a homerun swing and makes a huge trade out of nowhere. Or maybe lottery luck shines upon the Pelicans again, and they move way up in the draft. But for now, it’s about finally seeing what they have with a healthy roster. Or that’s the hope, at least, for the injury-plagued Pels.

Toronto Raptors

Offseason Approach: The Raptors have hit a franchise crossroads

Actual Cap Space: -$56.5M

Practical Cap Space: -$49.3M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $62M

Under Contract (10): FULL ROSTER
Precious Achiuwa, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Chris Boucher, Malachi Flynn, Christian Koloko, Otto Porter Jr., Pascal Siakam, Joe Wieskamp (non-guaranteed), Thaddeus Young ($1,000,000 guaranteed)

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Dalano Banton (restricted), Will Barton (unrestricted), Jeff Dowtin (restricted – two-way), Ron Harper Jr. (restricted – two-way), Jakob Poeltl (unrestricted), Gary Trent Jr. (unrestricted – player option), Fred VanVleet (unrestricted – player option)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer ($12,221,000), Bi-Annual ($4,448,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #13

Analysis: 

The Toronto Raptors have hit a crossroads. The first piece of change has already come with the Raptors and Nick Nurse parting ways after five seasons together and an NBA title. After three somewhat middling seasons, Toronto and Nurse are going their separate ways.

As of this writing, the Raptors haven’t hired a new coach. Thus, we have no hints towards it being an experienced coach to lead a team chasing a playoff spot, or a less-experienced coach to develop with a rebuilding roster.

That changeover on the sideline could apply to the roster as well. Core roster members Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. are likely to decline their player options to test free agency. Something seems like it might give with the trio of Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes, as they are kind of three players for two positions. And Jakob Poeltl needs a new deal, after the team gave up a first-round pick to bring the center back to Toronto at the trade deadline.

Starting with the free agents, Trent seems the most likely to leave. He’s been somewhat squeezed in the rotation and he’s got that 3&D skillset that all teams want. Trent is also only 24 years old. He’s likely to get a deal that Toronto will struggle to match, given their ever-increasing payroll.

That brings us to VanVleet. He’s now 29 years old, his play slipped a good bit last season and he’s had four consecutive years with various injuries. On the flip side, VanVleet can play on or off-ball, he’s still a solid defender, despite his limited size and he has high-level playoff experience.

The big challenge comes with what another team might offer VanVleet vs how far the Raptors are willing to go to retain him. A handful of the cap space teams like Detroit, Orlando, Utah, San Antonio and possibly Houston, could be in the mix for a lead ballhandler. If one of them makes VanVleet a targeted priority on Day 1 of free agency, it might be hard for Toronto to match an offer and still maintain the payroll flexibility they sorely need.

As for Poeltl, the Raptors gave up a future first to bring him back. They couldn’t extend him for enough, because of his relatively small salary this past season. But something in the $60 to $64 million range over four years seems to make sense for Poeltl. And it feels like something Toronto will easily do. His defense and rebounding alone make him worth $15 to $16 million in AAV, and possibly even a little bit more.

At the draft, barring some lottery luck, Toronto will have a mid-first-round pick. They’ve done well in that approximate range in the past. Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster have built a solid scouting department and they rarely miss in the draft. Whoever the Raptors select will likely be a rotation contributor by Year 2 at the latest.

As for the rest of the roster, it’s all about extensions and/or trades. If Trent and VanVleet leave, that could signal a reset of sorts. Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are both playing out the final guaranteed years of their deals. That means it’s time to think about extensions, or failing that, potentially trading either player.

Siakam could be a solid extension candidate, given the new veteran extension rules allowing for 40% bump in salary (up from 20% today). That’s well within the range of what a new contract would be for him, given he’s already 29 years old entering next season. Don’t be surprised if Toronto and Siakam get a new deal signed at some point this summer.

For Anunoby, even the increased veteran extension rules aren’t enough for him to extend. He’d only see his first-year salary land at around $26 million. That seems a bit low for his potential as premier 3&D wing with upside to be more. Anunoby is probably headed for 2024 free agency and a huge payday. If Toronto gets the sense that he might be looking at other teams, they need to consider a trade.

The other reason to consider a trade (and not necessarily for Anunoby, but in general) is that it’s not clear that Siakam and Anunoby are great fits alongside a re-signed Poeltl and Scottie Barnes. Anunoby is the only plus shooter of that bunch. Even if Toronto was to add another outstanding shooter, lineups featuring Siakam, Barnes and Poeltl are going to be challenged to space the floor effectively.

That challenge, along with the prospect of signing Siakam and Anunoby to huge new deals, has to have Ujiri thinking about trade options. No executive in the league fears taking a home run swing less than Ujiri. He’ll swing for the fences if he thinks the deal is the right one for his team. Don’t be surprised if one of Toronto’s big-name players is on the move via trade this summer.

Of the team’s remaining decisions, it seems like the team will waive Thaddeus Young and save roughly $7 million in salary, given he’s no longer a rotation player for them. Unless his salary is needed in a trade, the flexibility under the tax line is more valuable to Toronto. Joe Wieskamp’s salary is small enough that he’ll probably stick at least until training camp cuts have to be made.

Dalano Banton is an interesting restricted free agent. Injuries wrecked his second season, but he’s got tremendous size for a ballhandler and he’s a pretty solid defender too. Look for the Raptors to do what they can to bring him back, likely on a team-friendly three- or four-year deal.

Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn are both eligible for rookie scale extensions. Achiuwa is an extension candidate, especially if some of the team’s frontcourt logjam is cleared out via trades. He could get a deal in the range of what the Memphis Grizzlies gave Brandon Clarke (four years, $48 million), as he’s similar to Clarke as an energizer big off the bench. Having Achiuwa locked in would also make Chris Boucher available via trade, and his $11.75 million salary could help really plus up an offer to bring in a higher-salary player.

Flynn hasn’t shown enough, despite being given several opportunities, to get an extension. It would have to be so team-friendly, that Flynn is better off playing it out and betting on finally breaking out ahead of restricted free agency in 2024.

The Toronto Raptors are again the team that the entire league is watching. There are so many moving parts and so many possible directions, that the Raptors will probably be engaged in conversations with all sorts of potential trade partners. And because it’s Masai Ujiri at the helm, anything is possible from trading for a superstar to tearing things down and resetting in a major way.

Dallas Mavericks

Offseason Approach: Keeping Kyrie Irving will cost on the court and could cost off it too

Actual Cap Space: -$86.5M

Practical Cap Space: $86.5M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $48.9M

Under Contract (10): FULL ROSTER
Davis Bertans, Reggie Bullock ($5,451,200 guaranteed), Luka Doncic, Josh Green, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jaden Hardy, Maxi Kleber, A.J. Lawson (two-way), JaVale McGee

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Justin Holiday (unrestricted), Kyrie Irving (unrestricted), Markieff Morris (unrestricted), Frank Ntilikina (unrestricted), Theo Pinson (unrestricted), Dwight Powell (unrestricted), Christian Wood (unrestricted), McKinley Wright IV (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Taxpayer ($5,000,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #10

Analysis: 

The Dallas Mavericks arguably had the most disappointing season in the NBA. All of the other teams that didn’t make the postseason had some level of expectation that they might not be good. The Mavericks expected to be title contenders and didn’t even make the Play-In Tournament.

And this came after a midseason addition of Kyrie Irving to the roster. And it’s with Irving that the Dallas offseason hinges.

The Mavs have their superstar in place in Luka Doncic, but he needs a running mate. Dallas hopes that is Irving. Results with the two were a bit mixed, but trading for Irving was never just about this past half-season. It was about the years to come.

Irving won’t sign an extension, because it’d be too cost-prohibitive for him to even consider it. But that’s not really a worry for the Mavericks. None of the teams that project to have cap space are reasonable landing sports for Irving either. It really comes down to how much Dallas is willing to pay the mercurial guard and for how long.

Irving is likely seeking a max deal for at least four seasons. He’s 31 now and this is probably his final big payday. Even though small guards age better than ever now, none of them have approached a max deal in their mid-30s. This is Irving’s last, best chance of getting paid.

If you’re Mavs GM Nico Harrison, you have to be really, really sure of two things if you give Irving a max deal. The first is that you’ll get productive, healthy (or semi-healthy) seasons out of Irving. Failing that, you have to feel confident you’ll be able to trade him without having to pay a team to take him.

The first part is probably a decent bet. When heathy, Irving remains an elite and efficient scorer. He’s a yearly 50/40/90 threat and he can score at all levels. Irving is also a solid playmaker, and a willing passer when he has the right guys around him.

The health part is a challenge. Irving still piles up a good number of total missed games, even when factoring in the ones he misses for non-injury-related reasons. Irving’s knees have been problematic for years, he’s had shoulder issues in recent seasons and last year he dealt with foot and ankle issues.

But you can deal with all that. You factor in that he’ll miss somewhere around 20 games or so due to injury, and you build up your depth to account for it.

What can’t be fully factored in, but needs to be, is the games Irving might miss for non-injury reasons. Last season it was a suspension for sharing a link to an anti-Semitic video. In the years before, it was Irving’s stance against being vaccinated. In other years, there have been shorter personal absences that have seen him miss games.

That’s the risk. There’s also the risk that Irving will simply become unhappy with his situation and want out before his contract is complete. It’s happened in Cleveland, Boston and Brooklyn. There’s really no reason to believe it won’t also happen in Dallas.

But if it doesn’t, or if that happens after Year 2 or Year 3 of a new deal, you’re probably ok. For at least a couple of seasons, Dallas will having a dynamic scoring in playmaking duo in Doncic and Irving. That’s a pretty good foundation to work from.

The guess here is that Dallas didn’t give up what they did to just let Irving walk. The Mavs will likely offer Irving at least a four-year max deal. Maybe that final season will have some form of team protection. From there, it’s Irving’s decision to sign or not. If there was ever a player that would turn down a max deal without another waiting for him, it’d be Irving. When he says it’s not all about the money, it’s fair to believe he means that, given his recent history of missed games.

Assuming Irving is back in the fold on a max deal, Dallas will have limited ability to build out the rest of their roster. They’ll likely have their draft pick and the Taxpayer MLE to add outside talent, barring a trade or two.

The Draft Lottery is an important event for the Mavericks. If any of the bottom four teams (Chicago, Oklahoma City, Toronto or New Orleans) jump into the top-4 of the Draft, Dallas will lose their pick to the New York Knicks. So, Mavs fans are hoping for chalk for the first four envelopes.

In free agency, Dallas will likely have only the Taxpayer MLE, as re-signing Irving will put them up in the range of being over the tax apron. Under the new CBA, that’ll limit the Mavericks to a $5 million exception to use on a free agent. That’s not a huge chunk of spending power, but on a team that can be reasonably expected to contend, it’s better than nothing.

The Mavs will be looking to add shooting and/or defense around Irving and Doncic. That means players like Torrey Craig, Dillon Brooks (if his star has fallen as far as it may seem), Jalen McDaniels, Trey Lyles, Andre Drummond, Lonnie Walker, Georges Niang and Drew Eubanks could all make some sense. Getting another ballhandler in the fold is important too, given the likelihood Irving will miss games. Jevon Carter, Reggie Jackson or Kendrick Nunn could all be sensible targets to play the backup point guard role.

Of their own non-Irving free agents, the most likely to be back are probably Dwight Powell and Theo Pinson. Powell has fans within the organization, and he’s been a good pick-and-roll partner for Doncic for years now. Pinson is a minimum, end-of-bench, locker room guy that the Mavs love. Frank Ntilikina seems to be a Jason Kidd favorite too, so don’t rule out his return on a minimum deal.

Christian Wood is very likely gone, and might serve the Mavs well to try and make that into a sign-and-trade deal. Wood could get a touch more money that way, and Dallas could recoup some value by replacing his salary slot. It’s a shame Wood didn’t work out for the Mavericks, as the talent is there, but the fit wasn’t quite right.

Outside of an unexpected major trade or incredible lottery luck, Dallas is probably going to look pretty similar to the team that ended last season. There will be moves around the edges to improve the depth and the defense, but most of the main rotation guys are in place already.

As it was for the Cavs, Celtics and Nets, it’s mostly all about Kyrie Irving (with a heavy dose of Luka Doncic) for the Mavericks. Such is life when you add Irving to your mix. It can work out great, so long as you recognize the clock starts ticking on the partnership before the ink is dry on the contract.

Utah Jazz

Offseason Approach: Options abound for a team that was more competitive than expected

Actual Cap Space: -$14.4M

Practical Cap Space: $45.4M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $73.4M

Under Contract (10): FULL ROSTER
Ochai Agbaji, Vernon Carey Jr. (non-guaranteed), Kris Dunn (non-guaranteed), Simone Fontecchio, Walker Kessler, Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk ($3,000,000 guaranteed), Micah Potter (two-way), Luka Samanic (non-guaranteed), Collin Sexton

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Udoka Azubuike (unrestricted), Jordan Clarkson (unrestricted – player option), Rudy Gay (unrestricted – player option), Talen Horton-Tucker (unrestricted – player option), Damian Jones (unrestricted – player option), Johnny Juzang (restricted – two-way), Juan Toscano-Anderson (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Room Exception ($7,609,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None (all projected to be renounced for cap space)

First Round Draft Picks: #9, #16, #28

Analysis: 

The Utah Jazz were far better than anyone expected this season. When the Jazz traded away Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, it was expected that they would drop into being a tanking team. Instead, an eclectic bunch made a real postseason push until they were late in the regular season.

Now, the Jazz can turn to what the expected outcome was: A rebuild. But instead of a tear-it-down-to-the-studs job, the Jazz can do more of a remodel.

That’s made possible because Lauri Markkanen blossomed into a bonified All-Star this season. Markkanen turned in easily his best NBA season, but it doesn’t seem to have been a fluke. In an offense tailored to his strengths and with greater usage, Markkanen shined.

Now, the Jazz have what every team wants: An All-Star on a value contract. And they’ve got other interesting talent, a treasure chest full of draft picks and great cap flexibility.

Of their own roster decisions, Utah needs to make decisions on a handful of non-guaranteed players. Kelly Olynyk is chief among them, but it likely that the Jazz will guarantee his contract vs letting Olynyk go at the cost of $3 million in dead money. He’s shown he’s a good fit with Markkanen and Walker Kessler in the frontcourt. Kris Dunn is the next most likely have his deal guaranteed (he was quite good for the Jazz after being called up from the G League), while Luka Samanic and Vernon Carey could be expendable if Utah needs a little extra cap space.

Part of the reason the Jazz could be sitting on over $45 million in cap space is that productive starters Jordan Clarkson and Talen Horton-Tucker can both be free agents by declining their player options. Clarkson is coming off a strong season as a full-time starter, and could be looking to cash in on one more big contract in his early-30s. He’s an ideal fit for any team as a bench scoring combo guard, or as a sometimes-starting guard.

Horton-Tucker isn’t a good enough shooter to be a regular starter, but he’s good enough to be a rotation player on a good team. He’s coming off a solid season also, so he’ll probably opt out as well.

At the draft, Danny Ainge and Justin Zanik will have three first-round picks to work with. They’ve got their own pick in the middle of the lottery, a mid-first from the Minnesota Timberwolves and a late-first from the Philadelphia 76ers.

Barring some lottery luck where they move way up, look for the Jazz to be active in trade scenarios, as bringing three rookies onto an already-young roster may not be ideal. If nothing else, Ainge could trade a pick for future assets, as he loves piling up draft picks, or could use that late-first to add a draft-and-stash candidate.

In free agency, it’s a little hard to peg Utah’s direction. If they are looking to be competitive right away, the Jazz could use their cap space to sign free agents or to add players via trade. If Utah is slow-playing the rebuild a bit, they could use that space to take on contracts and add to their stash of young talent and draft picks.

Long-term, it looks like the Jazz building blocks are Markkanen, Kessler, Ochai Agbaji and, to a lesser extent, Collin Sexton. That gives Utah core players in the frontcourt, on the wing and in the backcourt. Markkanen and Sexton are on value contracts, while Kessler and Agbaji are both on rookie deals.

Adding talent in the backcourt would seem to be the first priority, followed by more talent on the wing. Utah could get involved on restricted free agents like Austin Reaves or Cam Johnson, as both would fill needs. Signing Reaves to an offer sheet would also let Ainge tweak the Lakers a bit, by forcing them to match or lose a talented player.

If they go the unrestricted route, the Jazz make sense to re-sign Clarkson. He’s been happy in Utah, and the team loves him. He could be a candidate to sign one of those late-June, pre-free agency extensions that have become popular in recent years. Horton-Tucker is a candidate to be extended, as well. Both would have to pick up their player options first, but that’s likely in the range of their first-year salaries anyway.

If Utah goes outside the organization, Bruce Brown, Gary Trent, Max Strus and Donte DiVincenzo are off-ball targets that make sense. Gabe Vincent is an on-ball player who could be priced out in Miami, and could start immediately for the Jazz. Coby White or Ayo Dosunmu could be low-risk, high-reward signings. And, if Utah really wanted to spend some money and continue their theme of a big, versatile frontcourt, they could make a really nice offer to bring Kyle Kuzma back to where he played his college ball.

The Jazz are starting to mirror when Danny Ainge rebuilt the Boston Celtics. He piled up an enviable number of draft picks, made some shrewd pickups and the team got better quicker than anyone could have imagined. Utah is on a similar path. And it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Jazz right back in the playoff mix as soon as next season.

Orlando Magic

Offseason Approach: Great young core, but patience remains the prudent path

Actual Cap Space: -$21M

Practical Cap Space: $22.1M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $50.1M

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER
Cole Anthony, Paolo Banchero, Bol Bol (non-guaranteed), Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz ($2,000,000 guaranteed), Gary Harris (non-guaranteed), Kevon Harris (two-way), Caleb Houstan, Jonathan Isaac ($7,600,000 guaranteed), Chuma Okeke, Jay Scrubb (two-way), Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner

Potential Free Agents (5): FULL LIST
Goga Bitadze (unrestricted – team option), Michael Carter Williams (unrestricted – team option), Admiral Schofield (restricted – team option), Moritz Wagner (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Room Exception ($7,609,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #6, #11

Analysis: 

The Orlando Magic took a major step forward this season. They improved from 22 wins to 34 wins, hung around the race for the Play-In Tournament until almost the end of the season and saw almost all of their young players improve.

All of that success this season has Magic fans dreaming big about the future. And that’s not a pun about the overwhelming amount of size on this roster. Orlando is loaded with talent across almost all positions. Now, it’s about combining the right mix of internal growth with external additions to put the team in position to fight for a playoff spot.

At the draft, the Magic project to have mid- and late-lottery picks (their own and the second pick they are owed from the Chicago Bulls from the Nikola Vucevic trade). Unless Chicago gets extremely lucky in the lottery, Orlando will have two more picks to add to their team. But should they?

The Magic already have 11 players signed to standard contracts for next season. That includes four bigs, four guards and three wings. All are players that the Magic like. Most are players the Magic want to give minutes to next season. Adding two more highly-drafted rookies to the mix only further muddies the minutes distribution.

In addition, Orlando should have over $20 million in cap space, and could see that figure rise to over $30 million. That sort of flexibility with the roster, draft capital and cap space is great, provided you use it correctly.

And that’s the challenge that Jeff Weltman and the Magic front office are facing this summer. When is it time to consolidate and push your chips to middle to the table?

It might be a year too early for Orlando to do that. After a very messy 5-20 start, which included the team playing for weeks with very few healthy, NBA-ready guards, the Magic bounced back to finish 29-28. A .500 record might not get a lot of teams very excited, but it’s the best basketball the Magic have played in years. It was a sustained long enough that Orlando should feel good about believing in it.

But that doesn’t mean it’s time to consolidate players in a trade, nor is it time to spend big on any single free agent.

This team’s building blocks are Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Those two are franchise-level guys that you can craft a contender around. Wendell Carter Jr. is rock solid as a frontcourt partner for the two burgeoning stars.

The backcourt is filled with still-interesting talents in Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony. Despite all of the injuries, Fultz has bounced back and been pretty good, and he’s only turning 25 years old this summer. Suggs needs to stay healthy, because every time he’s figuring it out, he picks up an injury that sets back his progress.

Anthony is where we’ll start part of the offseason processing. Right now, he’s a pretty good third guard. He’s coming off his most efficient season, by a wide margin. Anthony fits best in the benching scoring role, after being a bit miscast as a starter.

Anthony is extension-eligible this summer. How much can you invest in a third guard, albeit a good one, when you aren’t a Finals contender? If the Magic can get Anthony at something around the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount ($13 to $15 million AAV over four years), they’ll have done well. For Anthony, that should be his baseline too. Anything less, and he’s best on betting on himself having a big season and hitting 2024 free agency.

Of their own free agents this summer, Moritz Wagner is the most likely to be back. He seems to enjoy playing with his brother and he gives the Magic a feisty element off the bench. If Orlando wants to continue the Goga Bitadze project, they could choose him over the elder Wagner. Both Michael Carter-Williams (great that he got himself back into the league!) and Admiral Schofield are probably going to be casualties of the roster crunch.

At the draft, Orlando should consider a minor packaging of their two picks, and/or a player or two, to move up. Or a deal where they use those picks to target a veteran addition to the roster. Another quality wing, specially one that can shoot, would be ideal for this team.

If the Magic stay in the draft, they’re probably drafting the best potential players available. It’s a running joke of sorts, but that player will probably have a rather expansive wingspan and a lot of upside potential, while being thought of as a high-character guy. And you know what? That strategy has mostly served Orlando well under the Weltman front office.

In free agency, the Magic have already been connected to Fred VanVleet. That seems like a bit of a connect-the-dots hypothetical. VanVleet is a touch on the older side and doesn’t really fill all that glaring of a need for Orlando. It’s not a crazy thought, but it’s one that doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense, given the presence of other guards on the roster.

Also, if the Magic keep the trio of Gary Harris, Bol Bol and oft-injured Jonathan Isaac, they probably won’t have enough cap space to chase the major free agents. Harris plays a valuable role in the team’s youthful backcourt. Bol was the basketball version of a roller coaster ride, but he’s barely making above the minimum salary. And Orlando has so much invested in Isaac, that it’s very hard to see them cutting ties at this point.

That means, instead of chasing a $30 million free agent, Orlando is probably a tier or two down. And that’s fine. We already covered that they don’t have a lot of rotation minutes available anyway. If the Magic wanted to play in the restricted market, they could make interesting offers to Austin Reaves (and force the Lakers to match an Arenas offer sheet) or Cam Johnson, which would hamper a team that projects to be battling Orlando for postseason positioning.

Veteran wings that could make sense for Orlando include Bruce Brown (who might get priced out in Denver), Gary Trent Jr. (who will fill the 3&D role Orlando could use as a starter or off the bench), Kelly Oubre Jr. (who will fill the bench scoring role alongside Anthony). If the Magic wanted to go a little bigger and push Franz Wagner down to the two (where he has played a lot in his first two NBA seasons), they could chase 3-4 options like Harrison Barnes, Grant Williams or Jalen McDaniels.

The main takeaway here is that the Orlando Magic have a lot of options this summer. None of them have to include going all-in, even if that is on the table. Another year of patient growth, while maintaining future flexibility is just fine. And it might even give Orlando a whole new perspective of what they need and don’t need when the push toward being a contender starts in earnest in 2024.

Indiana Pacers

Offseason Approach: Time to add to the core before the cap space runs out

Actual Cap Space: $27.4M

Practical Cap Space: $27.2M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $55.1M

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER
Chris Duarte, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Isaiah Jackson, Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Jordan Nwora, Jalen Smith, Daniel Theis, Myles Turner

Potential Free Agents (5): FULL LIST
Oshae Brissett (unrestricted), Kendall Brown (restricted – two-way), George Hill (unrestricted), James Johnson (unrestricted), Gabe York (restricted – two-way)

Dead Cap (3): Malik Fitts ($555,217), Juwan Morgan ($576,230), Nik Stauskas ($702,311)

Projected Signing Exceptions: Room Exception ($7,609,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #7, #26, #29

Analysis: 

The Indiana Pacers had an odd season. They were unexpected darlings, when they were five games over .500 in early-January. Then, injuries hit and a seven-game losing streak put the team down in Play-In Tournament territory. Finally, some uneven play and more injuries dropped the Pacers down into the lottery with a few weeks to play in the season.

Now, Indiana moves onto a really interesting offseason. They don’t have a ton of available roster spots, but should have around $27 million in cap space to play with. That puts the Pacers in a spot to target impact free agents that fit with Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, Bennedict Mathurin and bunch of interesting role players. Get it right, and this could be a playoff team as soon as next season.

The Pacers offseason isn’t simple, but their approach to how it begins can be. At the draft, barring some lottery luck (good or bad), Indiana will have a mid-lottery pick. That’s a chance to add another good player to the roster to go along with Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin as the team’s long-term building blocks.

With their later picks, Indiana should be able to get a project player, likely someone who will see a lot of G League time. And the other pick should be used on a draft-and-stash player, given the current roster constraints. And, of course, either pick could be used in a trade. That could be a deal to move up for a targeted player, or to move out, while picking up future assets.

In free agency, the Pacers only even semi-tough decision to make is on Oshae Brissett. He looked like a find a couple of years ago, but has fallen off the last two year. This past season, Brissett lost his shooting touch. It’s likely Indiana can move on here, without much worry.

George Hill and James Johnson are the kind of vets you can always bring back on the minimum, if you wanted to. And of the team’s two-way players, Kendall Brown is a little intriguing, but a stress fracture in his right leg wrecked his rookie season. He could be back on another two-way contract.

Add all of the returning players, the draft picks and maybe retaining a free agent or two on the minimum, and you have a roster that is nearly full. But that’s not the worst thing for a team that is likely to have significant cap space. That makes Indiana sort of a sleeping giant in free agency. They don’t have to spread that cap space out to fill out the roster. Instead they can go after one or two players who fit alongside the established core.

The Pacers are flush with guards. They have plenty of smaller wings (SG/SF types). They’ve got fives too. What Indiana doesn’t have is true forwards. Luckily for them, this free agent class has some great fits. And some of them are players who could get squeezed on the market.

With a roster that isn’t far off from winning, and young, but not super young, adding win-now talent makes sense. Haliburton is ready. Turner is ready. Buddy Hield is ready. A handful of the role players are ready. That gives Indiana a lot of options that some of the other lottery teams with cap space don’t necessarily have.

With roughly $27 million to spend, the Pacers could get in the mix for guys like Kyle Kuzma, Jerami Grant or Harrison Barnes (if the Kings were to move in a different direction). Any of those threes would be perfect fits as mid-career forwards that can play both the three and the four and can play on- or off-ball. Adding guys who can create their own shots, but also score while playing off others is huge to give the offense some balance around Haliburton.

If Indiana wanted to play in the restricted market, they could be in the mix for players like Cam Johnson, P.J. Washington or Grant Williams. Historically, the Pacers haven’t preferred to play the offer sheet game, as they’d rather work out a sign-and-trade (a la acquiring Malcolm Brogdon). But we did see Indiana go the offer sheet route for Deandre Ayton last summer. Don’t take that option off the table, if the other side would rather not go the sign-and-trade route.

Adding more size that can play with Turner is paramount, because Indiana was one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA last season. But that size also needs to be able to hit some shots too, because the offense was below average too.

The other thing the Pacers have working in their advantage, is that they’ll have the increased Room Exception to work with. Rather than having a small exception worth around $5.5 million, that has increased to about $7.6 million. That’s now a nice chunk of change to add a “bonus” player of sorts, after the cap space is spent. That’s how Indiana can further fill out their rotation, likely after the first wave of free agency takes most of the available money off the board.

Because the Pacers went the rare renegotiation-and-extension route with Myles Turner, as we laid out as a possibility in mid-November, they’ve got him on the fold on a perfectly reasonable $20.9 million salary for next season. That is less than Turner’s cap hold would have been as a free agent. Making that move when they did, and using some leftover cap space from this past season, locked up Turner while increasing the spending power for this summer. That was smart work by all parties involved to come to a sensible solution.

The building blocks are there for Indiana. The Pacers role players are ready to contribute on a playoff team. One or two good moves this summer in free agency, or via trade, and Indiana could snap their three-year playoff drought as soon as next season.

Washington Wizards

Offseason Approach: Rebuilding under new management

Actual Cap Space: -$74.8M

Practical Cap Space: -$74.8M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $56.4M

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER
Deni Avdija, Bradley Beal, Xavier Cooks, Johnny Davis, Daniel Gafford, Anthony Gill, Jordan Goodwin ($300,000 guaranteed), Quenton Jackson (two-way), Corey Kispert, Monte Morris, Isaiah Todd, Delon Wright

Potential Free Agents (5): FULL LIST
Taj Gibson (unrestricted), Jay Huff (restricted – two-way), Kyle Kuzma (unrestricted – player option), Kendrick Nunn (unrestricted), Kristaps Porzingis (unrestricted – player option)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception ($12,221,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,448,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Rui Hachimura ($6,263,188)

First Round Draft Picks: #8

Analysis: 

The Washington Wizards are in flux. They have some major free agent decisions to make. Their roster is bordering on unacceptably expensive for a middling team. And, as of now, they don’t have any clarity in who will be making the basketball decisions moving forward.

Washington fired GM Tommy Sheppard after making the playoffs once in his four-plus years in charge of basketball operations. Replacing Sheppard needs to happen quickly, as the NBA offseason is rapidly approaching.

Whoever does take over the Wizards front office will be entering in a tricky spot. Washington has nearly $98 million guaranteed salary on the books for next season already. On top of that, Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma are both looking at new contracts. Re-signing them at fair market value, and then filling out the roster, is going to push the Wizards near the luxury tax line.

And that’s not where a team coming off five consecutive losing seasons can be.

Let’s start with Porzingis, as he’s the higher profile of the two pending major free agents. He’s coming off his best NBA season, as he played at an All-Star level, and stayed mostly healthy.

Porzingis will be 28 at the start of next season, so he’s entering what should be the prime years of his career. He can play either the four or five, and he’s got a good inside-outside game. Porzingis’ game has also proven to mesh well with Bradley Beal’s, and that’s important given Washington is attached to Beal for years to come.

There has been buzz that Porzingis and the Wizards were interested in getting an extension done, but that was with Sheppard running the team. It’s unknown how a new GM will feel about the versatile big man. Still, it’s likely Porzingis is going to land a deal that likely starts around $35 to $38 million, and probably from Washington. Big men who can score at all levels, while blocking some shots and grabbing rebounds don’t grow on trees. In a weak free agent class, Porzingis is all but guaranteed to land a near-max deal.

That leaves Kuzma as the next most important decision the Wizards have to make this summer. His two years in Washington have featured the best all-around basketball that Kuzma has played. He’s not an extension candidate because his current deal is simply too small. That means free agency looms.

Kuzma’s ideal fit will be as a team’s third-best player on the high-end, but better as a team’s fourth or fifth-best player. In that role, his shooting and scoring, along with good rebounding and better-than-you-think playmaking can shine in a complementary role. But, like with Porzingis, the market will be a factor here.

Kuzma is somewhere between the fifth- and tenth-best available free agent, pending how you feel about some older players. He’s also a terrific fit for almost all of the teams that have cap space this summer. That means Kuzma is probably looking at a deal that starts somewhere in the range of $20 to $25 million in starting salary.

And therein lies the issue for Washington. If the Wizards re-sign both Porzingis and Kuzma, along with the guaranteed money already on the roster, they’ll likely be over $150 million in team salary. Once they sign their first-round draft pick and fill out their roster, Washington will be pushing right against the tax line.

That’s where some tough decisions might need to be made. The Wizards already made one ahead of the trade deadline, when they gave up on Rui Hachimura, rather than signing him to a new contract. That was the latest in a string of iffy draft decisions, which is part of why Washington hasn’t been able to climb out of the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference.

Deni Avdija showed signs of improvement, but he’s still a very poor shooter. Corey Kispert came along as a shooter and scorer, and is starting to hold his own defensively. Johnny Davis showed some flashes at the end of his rookie season, but largely struggled both in the NBA and in the G League.

That’s 1-for-4 in the last four drafts (and that’s only if include Kispert as a hit). And that’s part of why Sheppard is no longer running the team.

The rest of the roster is a mix of good, but not-game-changing veterans like Daniel Gafford (whose deal will go from roughly $2 million to $12 million for next season) and Monte Morris (who is kind of the literal definition of “fine” as a starting point guard) and Delon Wright (who continues to bounce around as a decent backup guard). The other half of that mix is unproven players without much upside, like Anthony Gill, Xavier Cooks, Jordan Goodwin and Isaiah Todd.

That leaves the Wizards in a spot where they have a ton of questions and no easy answers. On one hand, it looks like the team should go into total teardown mode. Let Porzingis and Kuzma leave and then really ramp up the rebuild by (big gulp!) trading Beal.

But even that isn’t as easy as it may sound. Beal is owed nearly $208 million over the next four seasons; he’s coming off back-to-back injury-plagued seasons; and he’ll be 30 years old at the start of next season. Oh, and lest we forget, Beal has the NBA’s only full, negotiated no-trade clause.

So, even if some team feels like Beal is the guy to put them over of the top, and they’re willing to overlook the salary, injury and age concerns, Beal has to ok a trade to that team.

That’s something Washington has to work around for the next four years, as they gave Beal everything he could get as a free agent last summer. Whether that will truly hamper the roster-building efforts moving forward or not is unknown, but it certainly doesn’t make things any easier.

As far as adding outside talent, Washington can maybe shuffle the deck chairs a bit to try and find better fits. But they’ll be limited to relatively minor trades, along with maybe using their MLE to sign a player. But a lot of that will likely depend on what happens with Porzingis and Kuzma, and where the team salary lands at.

This is a chance for the Washington Wizards to really make a fresh start of sorts. They’ll have a new GM and he can begin shaping the roster the way he wants, but he’s got lots of cleanup to do first. It’s kind of like buying the worst house on the block, getting ready to renovate and finding out that the wall you really want to knock down is load-bearing. You can still make things better, but you’ll have to work around that wall or find another solution to removing it. That’s what the new Wizards GM will be facing, and that work starts very soon.

Portland Trail Blazers

Offseason Approach: To deal Dame, or not to deal Dame, that is the question

Actual Cap Space: -$74.5M

Practical Cap Space: -$69.2M

Luxury Tax Space: $39.6M

Under Contract (9): FULL ROSTER
Keon Johnson, Damian Lillard, Nassir Little, Jusuf Nurkic, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons, Jabari Walker, Trendon Watford, Jeenathan Williams

Potential Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Ibou Badji (restricted – two-way), John Butler (restricted – two-way), Drew Eubanks (unrestricted), Jerami Grant (unrestricted), Kevin Knox (unrestricted – team option), Cam Reddish (restricted), Matisse Thybulle (restricted), Justise Winslow (unrestricted)

Dead Cap (3): Eric Bledsoe ($1,300,000), Didi Louzada ($268,032), Andrew Nicholson ($2,844,430)

Projected Signing Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception ($12,221,000), Bi-Annual Exception ($4,448,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: Gary Payton II ($8,300,000), Josh Hart ($2,626,019)

First Round Draft Picks: #3, #23

Analysis: 

(Updated Post-Lottery):

Outside of the San Antonio Spurs, who won the lottery, no one got luckier than the Portland Trail Blazers. They moved from the fifth pick to the third pick. That two-pick jump might not seem like much, but it’s a whole world of difference.

Portland won’t get Victor Wembanyama, but they seemed poised to be in position to select the consensus second-best player in the draft in Scoot Henderson. Because Henderson plays the same position as LaMelo Ball, the Charlotte Hornets are being projected to pass on him to select a wing with the second overall pick.

If Henderson is there, Portland could have the heir apparent to Damian Lillard fall in their laps.

Or, and this is a very real possibility, the Blazers could trade the third pick in a package for win-now talent. On its own, that pick might not fetch a lot. But what if you combined it with Anfernee Simons? Or Simons and Jusuf Nurkic? Now, Portland is in the mix to add a max player alongside Lillard, some re-signed players and they could get right back into playoff contention.

The Trail Blazers have a real chance to set their future with this draft. That’s true if they keep the pick for themselves and set up for a long-term buildup. Or if they trade the pick to build a winner around Lillard. Either way, Portland has options that didn’t exist in the same way pre-Lottery.

(Original Analysis):

The Portland Trail Blazers used to be a model of consistency in the NBA. While rarely title contenders, Portland could be counted on to make the playoffs on a yearly basis. Those expectations may need some adjusting moving forward.

The Blazers didn’t intend to miss the postseason for a second consecutive year. It just kind of happened. With several players nursing injuries (including most of the starting group) and facing an uphill climb to even make the Play-In Tournament, Portland shut most of their regulars down and called it a season in late-March. That makes two straight years they’ve done that. And that’s on the heels of eight consecutive playoff appearances.

Now, the Trail Blazers appear to be at a crossroads of sorts with their roster.

Damian Lillard won’t request a trade, but for the first time he was a little lukewarm on being a Blazer for life. Lillard said he wasn’t making ultimatums or threats when he told Portland’s leadership that they need to decide “Are you gonna go young or are we gonna get something done?”

The “get something done” portion would presumably include retaining and adding win-now veterans, as opposed to building around draft picks and young players. And that decision-point is where everything needs to start for Portland.

If Trail Blazers GM Joe Cronin decides that the team won’t be able to add enough veteran talent around Lillard, he may need to trade Portland’s franchise player. Cronin would be able to get a monster return, and much like the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets, he’d have a lot of assets to begin a full-scale rebuild with.

But trading Lillard seems crazy, right? Maybe, maybe not. It’s an almost impossible place to be in. Lillard is still in his prime and able to carry a team. But that status is exactly what makes him such a valuable trade commodity.

If Portland were to trade Lillard, they’d do best to explore deals for Jusuf Nurkic too. They might even be able to include Nurkic in a Lillard deal. That would see the Blazers resetting around young guards and wings, and a ton of cap flexibility moving forward.

On the flip side, if the Trail Blazers keep Lillard, they owe it to him to get better players around him. That’s easier said than done, given Portland has limited assets to work with.

The first step would be to re-sign Jerami Grant. In a spot where Grant didn’t have to carry a bunch of kids, he re-found his efficiency. Grant turned in a 47/40/81 shooting season, while averaging 20.5 points per game. That seems like a guy you want to invest in long-term.

The tricky part is that Grant is 29 years old. And his defense is showing signs of slipping. Still, a deal in the range of $25 to $30 million per season probably makes sense. Ideally, Portland would start Grant on the high-end and have his contract decline year over year, to match a likely falloff in his play.

The team’s next-most important free agent is Matisse Thybulle. For a team that was abysmal defensively, retaining their one shutdown wing defender would seem like a priority. The problem is that Thybulle can’t shoot. And he overlaps with both Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe positionally.

Thybulle’s restricted status should help keep him at an affordable number for Portland. They should be able to bring him back on a relatively team-friendly contract. And, hey, he did shoot 38.8% from deep with the Trail Blazers. Maybe, just maybe, he’s starting to come around.

Most would probably go to Cam Reddish next in free agency, but Drew Eubanks is the better and more important player for the Blazers. Eubanks has become a terrific finisher, good shot-blocker and good rebounder. Given Nurkic’s injury issues, Eubanks is an important backup to have in the fold. And he should come on a pretty team-friendly deal too.

Reddish did with Portland what he’s done everywhere else: Flash moments of brilliance, but even more moments of invisibility. Reddish is rarely bad when he’s on the floor, he’s just sort of forgettable. Occasionally, he’ll catch an opponent off-guard with his athleticism. But when defenders are locked-in, Reddish struggles to score. He can’t score off the dribble effectively and he’s not a good enough shooter to pull defenses out to him.

This one is probably a make-good, flyer type of contract. Maybe Reddish still pops, but he’ll be 24 before next season. It’s kind of now or never for the former lottery pick.

Speaking of lottery picks…Portland nailed last year’s selection. Shaedon Sharpe played in 80 games and he’ll be a starting wing before long. He showed a nice all-around scoring package, doing more on-ball creation as the season went along. Sharpe will probably never be an All-Defense player, but he’s got the tools to hold up solidly enough in a good team defense.

This year, Portland is going to have another high pick. Of course, they’d love to move up to one of the top two spots. Victor Wembanyama would immediately change things for the present and the future. Scoot Henderson could be a readymade replacement for Lillard, if the Blazers chose to move on from the franchise icon. Sticking at five, or in that range, Portland will still get a high-level wing player, and you can never have too many wings. Or that pick becomes a nice piece in a trade package to add a veteran player to the roster.

Pending re-signing their own free agents, Portland could still be in the mix to use the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. As that exception has bumped up to over $12 million for next season, that’s enough spending power for the Blazers to fill out their rotation with a good player. They could use more size on the wing, and a true backup point guard to play behind Lillard. $12 million will have them in play for a lot of quality free agents, and potentially two good players.

However, back to the key decision-point: Are the Trail Blazers “gonna go young or are we gonna get something done?”

Until Portland answers that question, and the subsequent decision on Damian Lillard’s future with the club, it’s hard to project where they go this summer. But it’s important that they pick a real direction. Sitting in the middle, hoping for vets to hold up and kids to develop quickly is a recipe for another season battling for a spot in the Play-In Tournament. That doesn’t seem like the “get something done” that Lillard is looking for.

Charlotte Hornets

Offseason Approach: Whatever it takes to keep LaMelo Ball happy in Charlotte

Actual Cap Space: -$35.8M

Practical Cap Space: -$34.5M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $53.5M

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER
LaMelo Ball, James Bouknight, Gordon Hayward, Kai Jones, Cody Martin, Bryce McGowens, Nick Richards, Terry Rozier III, Kobi Simmons (non-guaranteed), Xavier Sneed (two-way), J.T. Thor (non-guaranteed), Mark Williams

Potential Free Agents (5): FULL LIST
Theo Maledon (restricted – two-way), Svi Mykhailiuk (unrestricted), Kelly Oubre Jr. (unrestricted), Dennis Smith Jr. (unrestricted), P.J. Washington (restricted)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception ($12,221,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #2, #27

Analysis: 

(Updated Post-Lottery):

The Hornets moved up two spots from fourth in the lottery to the second overall pick. They aren’t getting Victor Wembanyama, but in many ways the draft will now really start with Charlotte.

Scoot Henderson is presumed to be the second-best player in this draft. The challenge for the Hornets is that he overlaps with LaMelo Ball at point guard. They don’t project to be a good fit playing alongside each other.

Charlotte could select Henderson and take the approach that it will sort itself out. That’s not a terrible idea, but the Hornets also have Terry Rozier signed long-term at the guard spot too. That’s basically tying both your near- and long-term future to three guys who are all probably best playing as the primary on-ball creator.

The other option for the Hornets seems to be to select Brandon Miller. Miller has become he 2A player in this draft. Most have Henderson ahead of him, but many have Miller right there, and some have him as the second-best prospect in the draft.

Miller fits a positional need, as the wing position is very in flux in Charlotte. Gordon Hayward can’t stay healthy and has one year left on his contract. Miles Bridges situation remains unresolved, and he’s suspended for the first part of next season. No one else has really panned out for the Hornets at that spot.

Charlotte will also likely have plenty of trade offers, should they want to move off the second pick. San Antonio won’t even pick up the phone to talk Wembanyama, so that makes the Hornets the first team that will consider trades.

This is a big pick for a team that needs to get competitive around LaMelo Ball, and quickly. He’s probably getting a Designated Rookie Extension offer, but Ball won’t stay patient with rebuilding forever. Landing him the right running mate in this draft, might be the Hornets best path towards long-wanted stability.

(Original Analysis):

The Charlotte Hornets didn’t intend to be a bad team this past season. Unlike several rebuilding teams, the Hornets just sort of landed here. Every year, a playoff hopeful has the wheels come off their season. This year it was Charlotte.

LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward combined to play in just 86 total games. Terry Rozier missed a decent chunk of time and played hurt through several other games as the only experienced point guard the Hornets had. Mason Plumlee and Jalen McDaniels were rotation mainstays, but got traded at the deadline.

The result was Steve Clifford putting together one of the most overmatched lineups in the NBA for the final two-plus months of the season. The Hornets kept battling and never stopped playing hard, a trait all of Clifford’s teams have had, but the talent margins were too wide.

That lack of talent, and some really unimaginative offense without Ball, resulted in the NBA’s worst offense. The defense was a little better, but was propped up by blocking shots and snagging steals, which aren’t always the most reliable ways of defending.

A few players took meaningful steps forward. P.J. Washington played most nights and was pretty consistent. As his volume increased, his efficiency dropped off. His rebounding was also surprisingly shaky. But Washington has shown enough that if he’s your fourth or fifth starter, you probably have a pretty good team.

When Mark Williams finally got regular minutes around midseason, he showed he can be the Hornets starting five. He blocks shots and rebounds at a high level already. For now, Williams is taking all of his shots at the rim (67.3% of his attempts, of which 30.3% were dunks). But he’s got nice touch and decent shooting form. It’ll take a few years, but Williams should start hitting 12-15 footers, and eventually the occasional three-pointer.

Nick Richards was really solid at the center spot too. He’s essentially a slightly-advanced version of Williams, but without as much upside. Charlotte did a good job to lock him up to a three-year, $15 million extension, with only $10 million in guaranteed salary.

When he played, Ball reaffirmed that he’s an All-Star level guy. He’s one of the best playmakers in the league and a pretty good rebounder. He has the tools to be a better defender than he’s shown, and will likely improve as the team around him improves on that end. As a scorer, Ball has leveled off as a high-30% shooter from deep, and that’s good, especially considering his volume. One worry? His touch in floater range has dropped in each of the last two seasons. But the rest of his offensive package is pretty elite.

So…let’s start there with looking at Charlotte’s offseason. It won’t be the first domino to fall (that will be the draft), but the most important part of the Hornets summer will be extension talks with Ball.

Charlotte is likely to offer a full max deal, likely with Designated Rookie language that could bump Ball to the 30% salary tier. To get there, Ball will need to be in the mix for All-NBA. If he is, that means the Hornets were probably a postseason team, and they’ll happily hand him that 30% max deal should that come to pass.

But what if Ball waffles at all? To be fair, he probably won’t. No one really turns down a Designated Rookie offer, and he’s coming off an injury-plagued season. But if he did, that’s a sign the Hornets are in real trouble.

Let’s be positive and assume Ball will be in the fold. That leaves the draft as the second-most important piece of the offseason. In an ideal world, the Basketball Gods will smile upon Charlotte for not openly tanking all season and will push them up to the first overall pick. A LaMelo Ball-Victor Wembanyama duo would be electric and appointment viewing.

But even if Charlotte sticks somewhere in the 4-5 range, they have to come away with someone who will be Ball’s long-term running mate. They’ll have the chance, as the draft looks like the top five or six prospects are really good. The only “bad” fit would be Scoot Henderson, and the Hornets would love trying to make him and Ball into a workable backcourt.

In free agency, it’s unlikely Charlotte is going the cap space route. They’ll probably want to retain Washington, as he was their most consistent player. The key is to not extend too far in what kind of deal they give Washington. Something in the four-year, $60 million range is probably the top-out, and that should be more than enough to get it done.

Unlike last year, the Hornets won’t be able to punt on making a decision on Miles Bridges. He missed the entire season as an unsigned restricted free agent after an offseason arrest for domestic violence. There was a midseason trial balloon floated about Charlotte and Bridges working on a new deal. It was so poorly received that the Hornets issued a statement saying they weren’t going down that path.

That option won’t be available to the Hornets this summer. A year removed from his arrest, Bridges is likely to remain a restricted free agent. Bridges will sign an NBA contract this offseason. In strictly basketball terms, Bridges is an awesome talent and was coming off a career-year. He won’t get the deal he might have gotten last summer, but something in the $15 million AAV range is likely. The big question: Will the Hornets cut ties or bring him back to Charlotte?

One last thing on Bridges: He’s still likely to face some form of NBA punishment. As he was unsigned all of last season, the NBA couldn’t suspend him. Under the CBA (both the current and upcoming), Adam Silver and the league have the right to punish players for domestic violence. Look for a suspension announcement shortly have Bridges officially signs his next deal. As he did already miss an entire year, it’s likely to be lighter than what it would have been had Bridges signed a contract last season.

The Hornets other surprisingly important free agents are two point guards who got their careers on track last season. After a few years floating around the fringes of the NBA, Dennis Smith Jr. earned a roster spot in training camp. He then turned in a really solid season. The high-end prospect shine is off Smith, but he’s proven he can be a good backup point guard.

Theo Maledon had a similar type of resurgence. He played well enough that at least another two-way contract should be coming his way. And he’s only going to be 22 years old next season, so Maledon screams late-bloomer.

The rest of the Hornets roster is in transition. Terry Rozier is starting Year 2 of the four-year extension he signed in 2021. That’s fine, as he’s coming off solid season, and he’s a good fit next to Ball in the backcourt.

Gordon Hayward is entering the final season of his four-year contract. That has to be a relief to the Hornets, as he’ll be very tradable as an expiring contract. If Charlotte wants to make any sort of major changes to their roster, a Hayward deal is the most logical path to making that happen.

While recent first-round picks James Bouknight and Kai Jones haven’t panned out yet, there’s still a chance they pop in Year 3. That’s been mitigated a bit by Cody Martin and Bryce McGowens outperforming their draft statuses. But Charlotte can’t afford to miss in the draft, even if Bouknight or Jones eventually lives up to his draft position.

This is an important offseason for the Hornets. They have to get Ball extended, otherwise things are headed in a really tough direction. Lottery luck or not, they have to nail their draft pick, as adding cost-controlled talent next to Ball is really important. Washington’s next deal is key, and the Bridges situation will be a sore spot until it’s decided upon one way or another.

And, of course, looming over everything is a potential sale of the team by Michael Jordan. That seems to have cooled a bit since the initial reports, but it’s still out there. Combine all of that, and the future seems uncertain and cloudy in Charlotte, both on and off the court.

San Antonio Spurs

Offseason Approach: Continuing to rebuild, but now around Victor Wembanyama

Actual Cap Space: -$10.6M

Practical Cap Space: $36.7M

Luxury Tax Space: $65.8M

Under Contract (10): FULL ROSTER
Charles Bassey, Khem Birch, Malaki Branham, Zach Collins (non-guaranteed), Devonte’ Graham, Keldon Johnson, Doug McDermott, Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, Blake Wesley

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Dominick Barlow (restricted – two-way), Keita Bates-Diop (unrestricted), Julian Champagnie (restricted – two-way), Gorgui Dieng (unrestricted), Tre Jones (restricted), Romeo Langford (restricted), Sandro Mamukelashvili (restricted)

Dead Cap (1): Joshua Primo ($4,341,600)

Projected Signing Exceptions: Room Exception ($7,609,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

Projected First Round Draft Picks: #1

Analysis: 

(Updated Post-Lottery):

The Spurs hit the jackpot at the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery. The ping pong balls bounced their way for the third time in franchise history and now Victor Wembanyama will join David Robinson and Tim Duncan in the history San Antonio franchise saviors.

Wembanyama seems like the real deal. He’s got everything you could ever ask for in a size/skill combo package. And there’s nothing but runway for Wembanyama to get all the minutes he can possibly handle in San Antonio.

The added benefit for the Spurs is now they know exactly what they are building around. Wembanyama and all of the younger prospects we previously covered. That allows the San Antonio front office to plan for the best use of their $32-$40 million in cap space this summer. If they want to pick off a veteran or two to attempt to compete right away, that’s right in front of them. If they want to slow play it for Wembanyama’s rookie season and call it another development year, that’s fine too.

The Spurs were in a good place without Victor Wembanyama. Now, they are in as good a place as any team in the entire NBA. That’s how monumental the lottery was for them.

(Original Analysis):

The San Antonio Spurs are deep into uncharted waters as a franchise. The Spurs had never missed the playoffs in consecutive years in the first 50-plus years of franchise history. 2023 will mark the fourth consecutive season San Antonio will miss out on the playoffs.

Those four years match the total number of years that the Spurs missed out on the playoffs since they joined the NBA in 1976-77.

Despite all of that, there’s optimism around the franchise. The Spurs have a young core of developing players and are hoping to land another high pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.

Keldon Johnson is the furthest along of all the young prospects. So much so, that San Antonio committed $74 million to Johnson in a four-year extension that will start next season.

Johnson has shown the ability to score and defend, while being a decent rebounder as well. His shooting remains streaky, but this season a lot of that was Johnson being asked to do more off the dribble. Ideally, Johnson would slot in as the team’s third or fourth best player. That will have to come as more talent is added to the roster.

Devin Vassell suffered through an injury-plagued third season, but showed all the flashes you hoped to see. Vassell has a silky jumper and gets good lift on off-the-bounce shots. He also showed ability as a vastly improved playmaker. If he can stay healthy, the Spurs have two starting spots filled.

Vassell is extension eligible this summer. If San Antonio believes he can get over the injury bug, they’ll probably try to lock him up to a team-friendly deal, a la Johnson. Look for something in a similar range of four years and roughly $75 to $80 million.

Around Johnson and Vassell, it was a lot of youth trying to figure things out. Jeremy Sochan looks like he can be a long-term starter at power forward. He needs to develop his jumper more, but Sochan is already a very good defender and has a decent amount of versatility to his on-ball game.

Malaki Branham was probably pressed into doing more than he was really ready for as a rookie, but he came a long way as the season pressed on. He’ll be at his best off-ball, but showed he’s got more on-ball playmaking ability than previous thought. Branham fits in well in a three-wing rotation with Johnson and Vassell.

Blake Wesley is the last of the young core players, and he’s got the furthest to go. Wesley’s NBA minutes were a struggle, and he was comfortable as a scorer in the G League, but not as a playmaker. He’s well-behind Johnson, Vassell and Branham in the wing pecking order, and could use to step up his on-ball ability. That’ll be a focus throughout the summer.

Adding talent around that core group is paramount. The main place the Spurs hope that comes from is in the draft. Ideally, San Antonio would land the first or second pick. That would bring them either Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson. Either player would be immediate starters, and would fit in well with the other young players. If the Spurs slide, they’ll still get a good player, but it’ll be one who overlaps positionally with guys already on the roster.

Beyond the draft, the Spurs have a handful of important roster decisions to make. The first one will involve Zach Collins. He’s got a $7.7 million deal for next season, but it’s fully non-guaranteed. Given how well Collins has rebounded from three consecutive injury-filled seasons, it’s a no-brainer the Spurs will guarantee his deal.

Collins has averaged 11.4 points on 52/37/76 shooting splits, to go along with 6.4 rebounds and 2.9 assist per game. He’s fine as a starting center, or as a caretaker while a younger option develops. As the regular season wrapped up, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich went as far as to say Collins would be the team’s starter at the five going into next season.

Of their own free agents, San Antonio has some decisions to make. Tre Jones can be a restricted free agent, and he’s had a nice season as the Spurs primary starting point guard. Ideally, he’d be a backup lead guard, but a high-end one, similar to his brother Tyus with the Memphis Grizzlies. If Jones could shoot it better, he’d be a candidate to be a starter.

Still, San Antonio should be in the mix to bring him back. Much like Collins, Jones can start, and serve as a caretaker as another player gets acclimated to the NBA.

Keita Bates-Diop has had a breakout season for San Antonio. If you believe that the 39% three-point shooting is real, then Bates-Diop is a sleeper free agent this summer. As it is, the Spurs should invest a decent chunk of their own cap space to keep Bates-Diop in the mix behind Sochan and Johnson at the forward spot.

The other free agent of note is Sandro Mamukelashvili. After two fairly non-descript season with the Milwaukee Bucks on a two-way deal, Mamukelashvili has flashed with the Spurs. It’s a small sample size, but there’s enough there that San Antonio will probably bring him back for another run.

Both of the team’s two-way players, Dominick Barlow and Julian Champagnie have shown enough that issuing them two-way qualifying offers is a sound strategy. Barlow is particularly interesting, as he’s still 19 years old and will be only 20 years old for the entirety of next season.

The rest of the Spurs offseason decisions seem pretty cut-and-dry. Romeo Langford will likely be non-tendered and allowed to hit unrestricted free agency. That makes sense, as he hasn’t been able to stay healthy throughout his career. He’ll get another shot, and possibly another shot in San Antonio, but it will come later in free agency.

Gorgui Dieng might also be back, but if that happens, it’ll come on a minimum deal later in free agency.

That leaves a couple of veterans, who carry two of the larger deals on the Spurs cap sheet. If San Antonio can move either Doug McDermott or Devonte’ Graham to bring in draft picks or young players, it’ll probably be under consideration. But San Antonio won’t trade the vets just to trade them. They are wary of going too young and like what both McDermott and Graham bring the locker room, as well as on the floor.

Free agent targets are a bit hard to project for the Spurs, despite the fact that they project to have third-most cap space in the NBA. Mostly, this is because it’s unclear how quickly the franchise wants to move this rebuild forward. This is really only Year 1 of the full-scale rebuild, as the last two seasons featured losses in the Play-In Tournament.

The best strategy for the Spurs is to remain patient. If they can use some of their cap space to re-sign breakout players like Bates-Diop, Jones and Mamukelashvili to good deals, they should do it. From there, it’s about adding another high draft pick (ideally Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson) and throwing them in with the young core. The offseason might offer opportunities to rent out cap space in exchange for additional assets, in the form of draft picks or young talent.

And, looming over everything is what Gregg Popovich decides to do. Will he return to continue to shepherd the team through the rebuild and back into playoff contention? Or is Popovich ready to call it a career? Recent comments make it seem like he’ll be back. Popovich seems energized to continue to work with the young talent, and if San Antonio can add Wembanyama or Henderson, that excitement probably ratchets up several notches.

Houston Rockets

Offseason Approach: It’s still Harden or rebuild, even after some poor lottery luck

Actual Cap Space: $45.8M

Practical Cap Space: $59.1M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $92.3M

Under Contract (10): FULL ROSTER
Josh Christopher, Tari Eason, Usman Garuba, Jalen Green, Daishen Nix (non-guaranteed), Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Jae’Sean Tate, TyTy Washington Jr.

Potential Free Agents (6): FULL LIST
D.J. Augustin (unrestricted), Darius Days (restricted – two-way), Trevor Hudgins (restricted – two-way), Frank Kaminsky (unrestricted), Boban Marjanovic (unrestricted), Kenyon Martin Jr. (restricted – team option)

Dead Cap (0): None

Projected Signing Exceptions: Room Exception ($7,609,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None (projected to renounce TPEs for cap space)

First Round Draft Picks: #4, #19

Analysis: 

(Updated Post-Lottery):

The Houston Rockets had some rough lottery luck. They didn’t move up to get in position to select Victor Wembanyama. Instead, Houston fell by two picks to the fourth overall pick, while division rival San Antonio moved up the top pick.

There’s no spinning that. It was a rough night for the Rockets. The only positive is that they now have clarity.

Houston gained a little bit of cap space, topping out a projected league-high of $59.1 million. That’s still enough to chase James Harden, with some left over for other additions. And now there’s no “Should we just be patient around Wembanyama?” questions to be asked.

The patience question is still there, because Houston has lots of other young talent. But picking at four isn’t so juicy that trading that pick to help bring in more talent around a re-signed Harden seems out of bounds.

Not much truly changes with the Rockets dropping a couple of picks. They might need to plus up a trade offer a slight bit more, but if they go for the quick turnover by signing Harden and other vets, it’s unlikely the fourth overall pick will ever be a part of Houston’s roster.

(Original Analysis):

Year 2 of the full post-James Harden experience has gone about as could be expected for the Houston Rockets. The bulk of their minutes have been played by players the team has acquired in the last three seasons. Eric Gordon was the only veteran who saw meaningful minutes, and he was in and out of the lineup before being traded to the LA Clippers at the trade deadline.

Predictably, all that youth has led to a lot of losing. But that’s not the end of the world. The Rockets are positioned to add another top pick to an interesting mix of young talent.

Jalen Green has taken steps forward in his sophomore season. He’s still a little too happy to dribble the air out of the ball before taking a contested, late-clock jumper, but there are real improvements in his game. Green is a better passer and a more confident player this year. Defense, as it is for most of the roster, is still a major work in progress. But the tools are there for Green to eventually hold his own in a good scheme.

Green’s backcourt mate, Kevin Porter Jr., landed a contract extension from Houston that will kick in next season. Not only is the four-year, $73.9 million deal a reasonable value, but the Rockets are well-protected should things go sideways. Only next season is fully guaranteed at $18.2 million. The remainder of the contract has various triggers, which will hopefully keep Porter motivated on and off the court.

Production-wise, Porter is kind of Green’s template to follow. He’s still not a great shooter, but Porter is a very good playmaker and sometimes shows signs of being an engaged defender. Green has more natural skill, so he should eventually be a better version of Porter, but Houston is happy to have both as they rebuild the roster.

Jabari Smith Jr. is probably the second-most important player on the roster behind Green, and you could argue he’s the most important. Smith’s season got off to a really rough start. He looked lost and the Rockets didn’t have the vets or coaching to help him get there. But as the season has gone along. Smith has figured things out. He’s shown why he was so highly-touted coming into the NBA over the last couple of months. The small-ball center stuff has been particularly interesting with Smith. He’s a keeper.

Alperen Sengun rounds out the team’s “core four” of young players. Sengun has taken over as the team’s starting center and there are glimpses of that Nikola Jokic-like package of skills that were talked about pre-draft. He’s already Houston’s best passer and rebounder, and Sengun loves to bang and bump in the post as he works for his position.

The forward spot is a mixed bag. Tari Eason does everything on instinct, but he’s really, really athletic. As he adds more skill and knowledge to his game, Eason will be at least a high-end backup, but probably significantly more than that. He was a terrific draft pick by the front office.

Jae’Sean Tate has had a rough season with injuries costing him a lot of time. That’s seen him lose his role as a regular starter. If he could improve his shot (he’s down to 28% and taking fewer threes than ever), Tate would be the 3&D wing the Rockets desperately need.

Usman Garuba has improved as much as any of the young Rockets, but you have to dig a little deeper to see it. He’s a really good rebounder and he’s a willing defender, even if some of his skill on defense gets lost in Houston’s overall sloppiness on that end. Something else to note: It’s super small volume, but Garuba has hit 24-of-52 from behind the arc this season.

Moving into the offseason, Houston has to decide how they want to move things forward around their core. They project to have the second-most cap space in the NBA at nearly $54 million. Their only potential free agent of note is Kenyon Martin Jr. So, there’s plenty of ability for the Rockets to make a big splash this summer. But should they? That’s a little harder to answer.

Let’s handle Martin’s situation first. He’s become a regular starter for the Rockets for the first time. He’s another in a line of tremendous athletes for Houston. The shooting hasn’t sustained as the volume has increased, so that’s something to keep an eye on. But everything else has come along nicely.

Contract-wise, the Rockets have good flexibility here. They can pick up their team option for Martin and bring him back at just $1.9 million for next season. That’s an incredible bargain, whether Martin starts of comes off the bench. But there’s a catch.

If Houston picks up their team option, Martin would be eligible for unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2024. If Houston declines that option this year, Martin can be a restricted free agent. This is a spot where Rafael Stone has to get it right. Martin might get paid a year early, but the Rockets have enough flexibility to do so. That’s the safer path, as opposed to hoping you can retain the talented young forward as an unrestricted free agent a year from now.

Beyond Martin’s situation, the big question is how to spend over $50 million in cap space. On its face, the Rockets roster isn’t ready to spend big to win right now. There’s just too much development needed by the key players. That’s fine, but that means patience is necessary. After three consecutive non-playoff years, following an eight-year postseason run, is that patience going to be maintained?

There’s also the James Harden factor. Normally, it would be crazy to think an aging star player would leave a readymade title contender for a rebuilding team, yet the buzz around Harden and Houston will not go away.

Signing Harden would presumably cost the Rockets almost all of their cap space. It’s likely that bringing Harden back to Houston would also mean some of the kids are getting packaged in deals to bring in win-now players.

There’s also a likely very high draft pick to factor in. Could Houston have a sense they are getting Harden and turn a probable top-four pick and their young talent into a quick-flip rebuild this summer? The cap space and assets exist to make it possible, even if it seems improbable and is incredibly risky.

In a very real sense, the Rockets might be choosing between two very different paths this summer. Path One means continuing to build around a young core of seven players drafted in the first round of the last two NBA Drafts, and another two players who Houston can select in the 2023 NBA Draft. Path Two is bringing Harden home again and likely scrapping all of that patience, and most of that youth, to surround him with vets that are ready to win.

Neither path is necessarily a bad option, but both come with risks. Choose Path One and the kids don’t develop as hoped for, and you’re likely rebuilding for several years to come. Choose Path Two and Harden isn’t Harden anymore, and you’re probably right back to rebuilding within a couple of years.

Splitting the difference, and signing non-Harden veteran free agents, probably isn’t an overly realistic option. That puts Houston in a bit of a weird spot with win-now vets surrounded kids who might not be there yet. Those teams are rarely ones we see succeed in the NBA.

It’s important that Rafael Stone and Tilman Fertitta are in lock-step on this summer’s decisions. It’s too important to the future of the franchise to waffle and only go halfway. The Rockets have to choose a path, go all-in on that direction and live with the results.

Detroit Pistons

Offseason Approach: Time to add pieces to push the rebuild forward

Actual Cap Space: -$9.7M

Practical Cap Space: $25.5M

Projected Luxury Tax Space: $57M

Under Contract (10): FULL ROSTER
Marvin Bagley III, Bojan Bogdanovic, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, R.J. Hampton (non-guaranteed), Killian Hayes, Jaden Ivey, Eugene Omoruyi (TBD on contract details), Isaiah Stewart II, James Wiseman

Potential Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Buddy Boeheim (restricted – Two-Way), Alec Burks (unrestricted – team option), Hamidou Diallo (unrestricted), Cory Joseph (unrestricted), Isaiah Livers (restricted – team option), Rodney McGruder (unrestricted), Jared Rhoden (restricted – Two-Way)

Dead Cap (1): Dewayne Dedmon ($2.8 million)

Projected Signing Exceptions: Room Exception ($7,609,000)

Notable Trade Exceptions: None

First Round Draft Picks: #5

Analysis: 

(Updated Post-Lottery):

There’s no other way to say it: the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery was a bad night for the Detroit Pistons.

Detroit fell from the number one overall spot in the draft pre-lottery to the fifth pick. That was the absolute worst-case scenario for the Pistons and that’s exactly how it played out.

There’s no positive spin. Not only did Detroit miss out on Victor Wembanyama, but they dropped all the way out of the top-four. The Pistons will still come away with a good player. They could still come away with a future All-Star, but that doesn’t really remove the string of dropping in the lottery.

Detroit did gain some extra cap space by falling back four picks. They still have a ton of flexibility moving into the summer. They still have all the nice young players, plus a returning Cade Cunningham. But they won’t have a surefire star joining that mix in Wembanyama or even Scoot Henderson.

Troy Weaver has a lot of work to do. Pistons fans are starting to get a little restless. There’s a lot “I sat through that season for the fifth pick?” out in the universe right now. Weaver has to rebound from that in a big way, or the next major draft pick could be made by someone else.

(Original Analysis):

Pending some good fortune at the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery, the Detroit Pistons season was one of those “one step forward, one step back” situations. There were good developments, but just as many not-good ones. That kind of leaves everything feeling a bit stuck in neutral.

Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren look like keepers from the 2022 draft. After a bit of a rough patch in November and December, Ivey figured things out as the game slowed down for him. He’s a solid scorer and a developing playmaker. His shot should eventually come along too, especially when he’s taking less self-created looks.

Duren came even further than Ivey in the second half of the season. Despite battling some injuries, he’s shown that he’s a rebounding machine and a pretty good finisher around the rim. Duren remains raw, but that’s the fun part. As he learns the NBA game more, and relies less on pure instinct, he’ll be even better.

Detroit also got terrific seasons from Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks. Bogdanovic was the Pistons best player this season, as he turned in another efficient scoring season. Burks was terrific on the bench, and he’s become a stabilizing presence. And, notably, neither was traded ahead of the trade deadline. That’s something we’ll get into more in a bit.

Up front, Marvin Bagley III showed why Detroit invested so heavily in him in free agency last summer. Outside of missing time with injuries, Bagley was solid for the Pistons. His ability to fit in lineups featuring other bigs is a skill that gives Detroit some lineup versatility.

Isaiah Stewart also looked pretty good for most of the season. He showed a willingness to take more three-pointers, despite that shot being a work in progress. Even if Stewart tops out as a terrific energy big off the bench, he’s a keeper.

Lastly in the frontcourt, James Wiseman has really shown some stuff for Detroit after arriving at the trade deadline. He’s nearly averaged a double-double and is showing all the promise that made him the second overall pick in the 2020 draft. With his first opportunity at real playing time in a while, Wiseman has shown he’s a player worth investing in.

On the downside, this was a lost season for Cade Cunningham. He got in only 12 games before getting hurt. The counting stats looked good, and the process was solid enough during that brief floor time, but Cunningham is still an inefficient scorer in the halfcourt. And this was all lost development time, especially between Cunningham, Ivey and Duren, as the Pistons core building blocks. By no means should anyone be out on Cunningham, it was just a disappointing sort of season.

Saddiq Bey stagnated enough that Detroit signed him before getting into a weird place with potential extension negotiations this summer. That trade got the Pistons Wiseman though, so it might still end up in a net positive.

Killian Hayes is starting to look like he is what he is: a solid playmaker, ok defender, but a terrible shooter and scorer. In Year 3, Hayes’ shot has looked as broken as ever. And his confidence has waned as well. It’s a shame, because his playmaking and defense have both shown marked improvement. For now, Hayes looks like a backup, and one that no longer has that starter upside.

Moving to the offseason, the Pistons are giving off vibes of a team that is ready to turn from rebuilding into contending for a postseason spot.

First, Detroit didn’t trade either Bogdanovic or Burks ahead of the trade deadline. They set high prices for both veterans, and when no one met those asks, the Pistons were happy to keep them. That’s a sign that the team intends to be better next season and feels good about the impact Bogdanovic and Burks can have on a young roster.

Second, the trade of Bey was a sign that Detroit wants to continue to invest in their frontcourt and that they feel they are solid enough on the wing. Due to injuries, the four-way steel cage match between Bagley, Duren, Stewart and Wiseman never really happened, but that’s a fun competition that can run into training camp.

The Pistons will likely have somewhere between the first and fourth pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. Of course, despite adding a lot of frontcourt talent over the last two seasons, Troy Weaver will select Victor Wembanyama if he gets the first overall pick. But it wouldn’t be any sort of franchise-killer if Detroit slipped to second and came away with Scoot Henderson. Even falling a little further and ending up with someone out of the Brandon Miller, Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson or Nick Smith Jr. mix wouldn’t be crushing.

The reason for the optimism, no matter where the pick falls, is the versatility of Cunningham. He can play any spot 1-3 in the lineup. If Detroit grabs Wembanyama, Cunningham probably stays in the backcourt. If it’s Henderson, then he probably slides to the three. If it’s one of the others, then the Pistons can role out a long, athletic lineup of quick, versatile guys around one or two bigs.

The other reason for optimism is that the Pistons will have somewhere between $25 and $30 million in cap space this summer. They’ve got a lot of rotation players in place already. They could use more backcourt depth and another wing with some size, but Detroit is mostly set with their starting group, and definitely set at the big positions.

Is it time to go all-in and spend most of that cap space on one big free agent? Probably not. Detroit is far enough from title contention that the true difference-makers will probably be looking elsewhere. But players in that next tier down become really interesting.

The Pistons could make things tough on the Los Angeles Lakers by giving Austin Reaves a big offer sheet as a restricted free agent. Unrestricted shooters and scorers like Seth Curry, Max Strus or Jaylen Nowell could make sense as targets too.

If Detroit wanted to spend more on one player, Fred VanVleet could, yet again, be someone who makes sense. That would push Cunningham to the three, but without taking away any of his on-ball responsibilities, because VanVleet has played off-ball for most of his career.

There has been some buzz of a Michigan homecoming for Draymond Green or Jerami Grant returning back to Detroit. Neither of those moves make as much sense, as they would cost the Pistons all of their cap space and neither player necessarily fills a glaring need.

As far as their own free agents go, look for Weaver to pick up his team options for both Burks and Isaiah Livers. They should both be back. Pending the draft and early free agency, there could also be a place for Cory Joseph and Rodney McGruder to return, as end-of-the-bench veterans. Hamidou Diallo is in a bit more of an interesting spot. He’s been in and out of the rotation when healthy, and he’s only 25 years old. But Detroit looks to have enough projects on the roster already.

There will also be some rookie scale extension intrigue, as Stewart, Hayes and Wiseman are all eligible to extend this summer. Stewart has shown the most, by far, of this trio. But his ideal role is as a third or fourth big on a really good team. How much is that worth in an extension? If Detroit can get him for an AAV under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount ($11-12 million), then they should lock Stewart up. Otherwise, Stewart is probably headed for restricted free agency after next season.

Hayes hasn’t shown enough to make it worth investing anything in. Any reasonable offer from the Pistons side would be so low, that Hayes is best to bet on himself having a breakout year ahead of restricted free agency in 2024.

Wiseman is in a weird spot. He’ll have 20 games or so under his belt with the Pistons, and they’ve been good ones. But he’s still largely a mystery box. This one probably plays out to restricted free agency too. That could be a costly process if Wiseman continues to develop as rapidly as he has in Detroit.

The Pistons should start camp with a nice mix of veterans and kids. Cunningham will be back. Bogdanovic and Burks should both still be around. Ivey and Duren will have a year of experience. Wiseman, Bagley and Stewart will all be in the mix. And they’ll add another high draft pick, along with having plenty of cap space to chase other additions.

It’s been a somewhat frustrating, stuck-in-the-mud year for the Detroit Pistons. But the future is really bright. The pieces are place for this team to take a step forward. It’s up to Troy Weaver and the front office to make the right moves this summer to help the returning players to start the climb up the standings.

Keith SmithJune 27, 2023

Just like we did with 2023 player and team options, we’re going to take a shot at projecting what happens with players who have contract guarantee dates. Unlike options, which all have to be decided upon by June 29 at the latest, contract guarantees can stretch out all the way until the league-wide guarantee date of January 10, 2024.

Since this focus here is to tie these projections to the start of NBA free agency on June 30, we’re going to narrow our focus to those contracts that have a guarantee date of mid-July at the latest. If any of the deals we’re going to project have a later guarantee date, we’ll call out their reason for inclusion.

Atlanta Hawks

Bruno Fernando - $2,581,522 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Fernando will probably have his deal guaranteed. It’s only slightly above the minimum and he’s a solid fifth big for the Hawks.

Tyrese Martin - $1,719,864 – fully guaranteed 7/21

Martin didn’t show much in his rookie season, but he’s worth keeping around for some wing depth. He’s also a nice tax-variance guy to have on roster, since he was drafted by Atlanta.

Garrison Mathews - $2,000,000 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Mathews can really shoot. For $2 million, he’s a great depth piece on the wing. The challenge is that Atlanta has a million wings already, and they are looking to get under the tax. This one is 50-50, but we’ll guess Mathews stays for now.

Boston Celtics

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Brooklyn Nets

Royce O’Neale - $9,500,000 – fully guaranteed 7/10

This one is very easy. O’Neale’s contract is already guaranteed for $2.5 million. He’s also pretty good and valuable for the Nets as a rotation guy or trade asset. He’s staying.

Edmond Sumner - $2,239,943 – fully guaranteed 7/5

Sumner has made it all the way back from a torn ACL. Pending what Brooklyn’s plans are in the backcourt, he could stick around for another season. If the Nets add a couple of guards, Sumner could go. We’ll guess he stays for now.

Charlotte Hornets

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Chicago Bulls

Marko Simonovic - $1,836,096 – fully guaranteed 7/7

Simonovic hasn’t had any sort of impact in the NBA, playing on 16 games in two seasons. But he’s been solid enough in the G League. He’ll probably stick in Chicago, unless the Bulls end up dancing around the luxury tax.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cedi Osman - $6,718,842 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Osman is a part of the Cavs rotation, for at least one more season. He’ll be back in Cleveland.

Dallas Mavericks

Reggie Bullock - $10,489,600 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Bullock’s contract is more than half-guaranteed already. He’s also a regular rotation player for the Mavs. He’ll be back.

Denver Nuggets

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Detroit Pistons

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Golden State Warriors

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Houston Rockets

Daishen Nix - $1,836,096 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Nix is probably going to get caught up in the Rockets desire to create over $60 million in cap space. In addition, the Rockets roster is starting to get stuffed. That’ll likely see Nix waived.

Indiana Pacers

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

LA Clippers

Brandon Boston Jr. - $1,839,096 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Boston has shown enough in his first two years that he’ll be back with the Clippers.

Eric Gordon - $20,917,902 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Nearly $21 million for Gordon is a lot. But it’s just cash for the Clippers. And that $20.9 million is a nice piece of salary-matching in a future trade. LA will guarantee Gordon.

Jason Preston - $1,839,096 – fully guaranteed 7/7

Preston’s first two years have been spent injured, followed by a season mostly in the G League. But Preston did show a lot in the G League. He’ll be back, unless the Clippers need a roster spot.

Los Angeles Lakers

Mo Bamba - $10,300,000 – fully guaranteed 6/29

The Lakers are likely to add a bunch of salary by re-signing some of their league-high 10 free agents. Keeping Bamba at $10.3 million would likely put Los Angeles in the luxury tax. Because of that, look for him to be waived, but potentially re-signed on a smaller contract.

Jarred Vanderbilt - $4,698,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Vanderbilt’s contract is already partially guaranteed and will become fully guaranteed by the end of June. He’s been a starter and key rotation player since the Lakers acquired him at the trade deadline. He’s not going anywhere.

Memphis Grizzlies

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Miami Heat

Haywood Highsmith - $1,902,137 – fully guaranteed 7/15

The Heat will guarantee Highsmith. He’s been a rotation player at times and Miami can use all the value contracts they can get on an increasingly expensive roster.

Milwaukee Bucks

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Minnesota Timberwolves

Jordan McLaughlin - $2,320,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

McLaughlin has regularly been the Wolves backup point guard. Considering his deal is only just above the minimum, he’ll be back in Minnesota.

Taurean Prince - $7,455,000 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Prince has been rotation regular for Minnesota. The Wolves will bring him back, because he could be nice piece of salary-matching in a trade, if nothing else.

New Orleans Pelicans

Garrett Temple - $5,401,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

This one is pending how much the Pelicans want to stay out of the luxury tax. If New Orleans wants to get out of the tax early, they’ll waive Temple. If they think they can make a trade later to avoid the tax, they’ll keep him. Or, if the Pels are ok paying the tax, they’ll keep Temple on the books and see if he can be put in a bigger trade down the line.

New York Knicks

Jericho Sims - $1,927,896 - $1.2 million guaranteed 7/6

Sims has done well as a third center and occasional spot starter for the Knicks. He’ll have his deal step up from $600,000 guaranteed to $1.2 million, and then eventually to fully guaranteed in mid-August.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl - $1,900,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

After a promising rookie season, Robinson-Earl backslid a bit in his sophomore season. His main issue was with injuries. There’s still more than enough talent there for the Thunder to bring him back on such a small salary.

Orlando Magic

Bol Bol - $2,200,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Bol’s promising start eventually came back to earth last season, but he’s still a bargain on this contract. The Magic will guarantee his salary.

Markelle Fultz - $17,000,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Fultz has bounced back from his torn ACL and looks really good again. He’ll have his deal fully guaranteed by Orlando.

Gary Harris - $13,000,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Harris is coming off a good season that most missed because Orlando wasn’t a good team last year. The Magic are going to keep Harris, because he’s valuable as a trade asset, if nothing else. But they like him plenty as a player, as well.

Jonathan Isaac - $17,400,000 – fully guaranteed 1/10

Isaac’s inclusion here is less about his guarantee date and more about Orlando making a decision before free agency opens. The Magic could waive Isaac and be on the hook for $7.6 million. If they do that, they’re likely loading up on cap space to make a run at a major player. If Isaac is still with Orlando, he’ll probably stick until at least the trade deadline. We’re betting on the latter being the case.

Philadelphia 76ers

De’Anthony Melton - $8,000,000 – fully guaranteed 7/3

Melton is already guaranteed to get $1.5 million, but as a key rotation player for the Sixers, he’ll be getting the full amount.

Phoenix Suns

Jordan Goodwin - $1,927,896 – $963,948 guaranteed 8/1

Goodwin was added to the Bradley Beal trade, because the Suns need some depth. Even if it happens later in the offseason, Goodwin will see his guaranteed amount increase in August and eventually to full in January.

Cameron Payne - $6,500,000 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Payne may well be the Suns starting point guard at this moment. Considering he’s already guaranteed $2 million, he’ll see his deal become fully guarantee. At that point, Payne’s deal is at least a nice piece of salary-matching in another trade for the Suns.

Portland Trail Blazers

Jabari Walker - $1,719,864 – fully guaranteed 7/20

Walker already has $400,000 of his deal guaranteed, but he showed enough to stick in Portland for the season.

Trendon Watford - $1,836,096 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Watford became a key rotation contributor for the Blazers last year. He’s not going anywhere.

Jeenathan Williams - $1,719,864 – fully guaranteed 8/1

Williams’ status probably depends on what else happens with Portland’s roster. If they need another wing, he’ll stay. If the roster is crowded, he could be waived. Summer League is a chance for him to show he deserves to stick.

Sacramento Kings

P.J. Dozier - $2,413,304 – fully guaranteed 7/10

The Kings swerve at the draft to salary-dump Richaun Holmes to create cap space means Dozier probably gets caught up in the swirl and waived. But don’t rule out a return to Sacramento after they do their other offseason work.

San Antonio Spurs

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Toronto Raptors

Joe Wieskamp - $1,927,896 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Wieskamp has shown enough in both the NBA and the G League that he’ll probably be back in Toronto. He could provide a little shooting for a team that doesn’t have enough of it.

Thaddeus Young - $8,000,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Young fell out of the Raptors rotation last season. If Toronto finds themselves working up against the tax line, which could happen pending re-signings, Young will probably get waived to save $7 million (he’s already $1 million guaranteed). If Toronto needs to use his salary in a trade, Young could see his deal become guaranteed.

Utah Jazz

Kelly Olynyk - $12,195,122 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Olynyk’s deal is already guaranteed for $3 million. He’ll get the rest of it guaranteed, as he’s a rotation player for the Jazz. He could also be involved in a trade, as Utah continues to evolve their roster.

Washington Wizards

Chris Paul - $30,800,000 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Paul’s deal will become fully guaranteed ahead of his trade to the Golden State Warriors for Jordan Poole.

Keith SmithJune 26, 2023

It finally happened! The Atlanta Hawks traded John Collins. After years (without even a hint of exaggeration) of rumors, Atlanta found a trade partner for Collins and the $78.5 million in remaining salary on his contract.

Collins will head to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Rudy Gay and a second-round draft pick.

Not exactly an overwhelming return for Atlanta, until the Hawks get to look at a significantly cleaner, and cheaper, future cap sheet. And that’s what drove this trade, more than anything Atlanta got back in terms of the player and the pick.

The Mechanics

This trade is another one that will have to take place after the league year changes over. There’s two parts to that and both are equally fascinating.

Let’s start with the Hawks side. Atlanta is sending out John Collins and his $25,340,000 salary, so they could have easily absorbed Rudy Gay’s $6,479,000 salary in the deal. But to maximize the amount of the Traded Player Exception (TPE) they can create, the Hawks will take Gay into their existing TPE for Justin Holiday.

Here’s where it gets fun! That Holiday TPE is $6,292,400. Under the current CBA (which expires when the calendar flips to July 1), the Holiday TPE wouldn’t have been big enough to absorb Gay’s salary. But in the new CBA, the little bit of extra matching in a trade increases from $100,000 to $250,000. That increase will allow Atlanta to bring Gay in via the Holiday TPE. The Hawks will then create the league’s currently largest TPE of $25,340,000 for the full value of Collins’ outgoing salary.

On the Jazz side of the trade, they are bringing Collins in via cap space, so they need to delay until the year flips to have that cap space. Utah will have enough cap space to do this deal, whether Jordan Clarkson and/or Talen Horton-Tucker opt out of their contracts or not. We currently project Clarkson to opt out (with the idea of adding more years onto his deal) and Horton-Tucker to opt in. But even if both opt in, the Jazz will have enough cap room to complete this deal.

If Clarkson opts out as projected, Utah will use a large chunk of their available cap space. Pre-trade for Collins, we projected the Jazz to have $47.2 million in cap space. After trading for Collins, we now project Utah to have $28.4 million in cap space.

Utah Jazz

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $25,340,000
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $6,479,000
Difference: $18,861,000

We’ll start with the Jazz, because they are the ones acquiring a player to play for them. Is John Collins a perfect fit in Utah? Not really. Is he a bad fit? Not even close.

On the cap sheet, this is grabbing Collins virtually for free. Unless Utah had dreams of spending big on free agents, this is good spending of money they had to spend anyway. The Jazz have very little salary locked in beyond this upcoming season, so adding Collins does very little to limit future flexibility.

On the court, Collins will fit better than many think. He should slot in between Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler in one of the NBA’s biggest frontcourts. For those who didn’t spend a lot of time watching the Jazz last season, that might seem like a wonky fit, but Markkanen is really a jumbo-sized three. He’s played at small forward a lot the last two seasons, with both Utah and the Cleveland Cavaliers before that. It’s a spot where Markkanen is comfortable and a dominant offensive weapon. Defensively, it’s not perfect, but Kessler is pretty good at cleaning up messes at the rim.

If Collins can recover his shooting form (he dipped to just 29% from three after being at 38% over the first five years of his career), he’ll fit in just fine in a versatile, inside-outside frontcourt. Collins will also help further add to what was a dominant rebounding team, especially when Kessler became the starting center.

This trade also buys even more time for rookie Taylor Hendrick to adjust to the NBA, as he projects to be the primary backup behind both Markkanen and Collins. It also frees up the Jazz to trade Kelly Olynyk, should they find a deal they like.

Mostly, this trade is about Danny Ainge and Justin Zanik picking off an undervalued player because the Hawks had to get out of the luxury tax for this season and had to create some long-term flexibility.

Atlanta Hawks

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $6,479,000
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $25,340,000
Difference: -$18,861,000

The Hawks part of this trade is simple: They cleared out lots of space around the luxury tax line for this season, going from $5.4 million over the tax to about $8.8 million under the tax. In addition, Atlanta got off the $78.5 million owed to Collins through 2025-26.

The former is good and helps new general manager Landry Fields achieve a reported mandate to get under the tax line for this season. But the latter is the real win here.

Even without Collins in the picture, the Hawks have over $277 million in guaranteed salary committed to just five players through 2026-27. For just the 2024-25 season, Atlanta has over $139 million locked in for seven players. Both short- and long-term the cap sheet was bloated with Collins on the books. Now, that’s less of an issue.

That’s important because Atlanta has three rotation players up for new contracts between now and next summer. Dejounte Murray is highly unlikely to extend his deal this season, as he’d leave too much money on the table, even with the NBA’s more-lucrative veteran extension rules. But Murray is going to get a hefty deal in free agency in 2024, be it from the Hawks or someone else. Atlanta can feel better about it being from them with Collins’ contract out of the picture.

This summer, both Onyeka Okongwu and Saddiq Bey are eligible for rookie scale extensions. Okongwu is seen as a key part of the Hawks future, so he probably benefits the most in the immediate from Collins being traded. Fields and crew can feel a lot better about locking up Okongwu long-term with Collins off the books.

Bey is in a bit of a weirder spot, but his chances of landing either an extension from Atlanta, or a new deal as a restricted free agent in 2024, go way up with Collins out of the picture. Some of the Hawks desire to extend Bey will be dependent on how they see the forward spot between him, De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson playing out.

On the court, this trade won’t do much for Atlanta. Rudy Gay might stick around as a locker room veteran, or he could be waived to open up a roster spot for a younger player. Presumably either Bey or Johnson will slide into the starting lineup, with the other becoming the primary backup forward. The new, giant TPE won’t get used right away, but it’s a nice thing to have handy to help execute a trade down the line.

No matter if it was driven by a mandate to dodge the tax this season, or to free up long-term cap/tax flexibility, the Hawks achieved their goal of finally trading John Collins. Now, Atlanta has to go about figuring out how to be better on the court with the formerly longest-tenured Hawk off to Utah.

Keith SmithJune 25, 2023

The 2023 NBA Draft, and the leadup to it, saw some big swings as far as 2023 cap space and spending power projections go. With one set of moves, the Oklahoma City Thunder cut their cap space in half, and the Sacramento Kings created jumped into the free agency fray. The Washington Wizards kicked off a rebuild, while the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns took on some high-salary players.

In addition, in the days ahead of the draft, the NBA released updated cap and tax projections for the 2023-24 season. The cap projection went up from $134 million to $136 million. The tax projection went from $162 million to $165 million. That’s a 10% raise for both.

That leaves the league with a pretty even landscape of spending power this offseason. Eight teams project to have cap space, 10 are projected to have the Non-Taxpayer MLE available, seven teams project to have the Taxpayer MLE, while five teams look like they’ll be up against or over the second tax apron and won’t have any signing exceptions available.

Cap Space Teams

  1. Houston Rockets - $60.9 million

  2. Utah Jazz - $47.2 million

  3. San Antonio Spurs - $38.6 million

  4. Sacramento Kings - $35.6 million

  5. Indiana Pacers - $32.2 million

  6. Detroit Pistons - $30.0 million

  7. Orlando Magic - $23.9 million

  8. Oklahoma City Thunder - $16.6 million

Eight teams project to have cap space this summer. Not only will these teams likely go the cap space route, but they’ll also have the $7.7 million Room Exception too. Under the new CBA, the Room Exception has more spending power than the Taxpayer MLE does. So, these eight teams are kind of in control of the free agent board.

The Rockets lead the way with over $60 million in cap space. For a while, it looked like a large chunk of that space was being allocated to chasing James Harden. Now, it seems like Houston will spread some of that money around, as they are reportedly interested in several veteran free agents. One thing to keep in mind: The Rockets have seven players on first-round rookie scale deals, plus they added two more at the 2023 Draft. And Kevin Porter Jr. and Jae’Sean Tate are signed as well. That means there’s potentially a lot of roster movement coming in Houston, if they spend big on free agents.

The Jazz projection is still a little up in the air. Jordan Clarkson seems likely to opt out, even if he eventually re-signs on a long-term deal. Talen Horton-Tucker is 50-50, while Rudy Gay will likely opt in. If Horton-Tucker opts out, this projection will jump up to $57 million. No matter what, Utah’s rebuild has plenty of flexibility, both in terms of the cap sheet and draft pick treasure chest.

The Spurs already won big, literally and figuratively, by drafting Victor Wembanyama. Now, it’s about San Antonio deciding when it’s time to add veteran talent to Wembanyama and a promising core of other young players. It may not be this summer, but that time is coming soon.

Sacramento swerved at the draft when they traded Richaun Holmes and their first-round pick and took no money back. That puts the Kings in a spot to be players in free agency. They could use another forward or a wing with size. This free agent class has a lot of intriguing options, and Sacramento could be in play for all of them, as they are the only playoff team with cap space.

Indiana had a nice draft night. They increased their cap space a bit, and added some future draft picks. The Pacers still need more size on their roster, so look for them to target forwards and centers via signings or trades. Something to keep an eye on: Indiana only has one or two roster spots to fill. That puts them in position to overpay a targeted player on a one- or two-year deal that they feel is a perfect fit.

The Pistons came away from the draft with an additional first-round pick, so they gave up a bit of spending power this summer. But $30 million is enough for Detroit to be in range for just about any available free agent. The question: Sign free agents or continue the process of eating salary for future assets?

Orlando has a young roster and not a lot of roster spots. With almost $24 million to spend, the Magic can be aggressive on targeting a specific player or two. If Orlando decides it’s time to move on from Jonathan Isaac, they can add almost $10 million to this projection, for nearly $34 million in spending power. But don’t look for fireworks. Orlando is focused on being patient and not rushing this rebuild.

The Thunder have already used a chunk of the cap space they’re going to create. Oklahoma City took on Davis Bertans’ and his $17 million deal from the Dallas Mavericks at the draft, in order to move up to draft Cason Wallace. That leaves the Thunder with about $16.6 million in flexibility, but they also don’t really have any roster spots open. That means that space is more likely to get used up in a trade of some sort than it is in a free agent signing.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

  1. Charlotte Hornets

  2. Chicago Bulls

  3. Cleveland Cavaliers

  4. Dallas Mavericks

  5. Memphis Grizzlies

  6. Minnesota Timberwolves

  7. New York Knicks

  8. Portland Trail Blazers

  9. Toronto Raptors

  10. Washington Wizards

These nine teams project to have access to the beefed-up Non-Taxpayer MLE of $12.4 million. It’s an interesting mix of playoff teams and rebuilding teams.

The Hornets are rebuilding, and they have a couple of key free agent decisions to make with P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges, who are both pending restricted free agents. Charlotte is likely to take care of their business with them first, before turning to fill needs in free agency.

Chicago should have the Non-Taxpayer MLE, pending contract decisions with Nikola Vucevic, Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White. Given the Bulls have a need at point guard with Lonzo Ball unlikely to play this season, that’s a spot to look at using some or all of the MLE on.

Cleveland should have the MLE to spend, even if they re-sign Caris LeVert. The Cavs also look ready to make another leap forward, so this $12.4 million should put them in a place to add a win-now veteran to help fill out the rotation. Keep an eye on a big wing that can shoot.

The Mavericks could be in range to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE, even if Kyrie Irving signs a max deal at $47.6 million for next season. That’s what their draft day dealing opened up for them. Given they’ll only have a couple of roster spots to fill too, Dallas should be able to fit in an MLE signing.

Memphis is in a similar spot to Cleveland. They need to add a wing, a big and another point guard. Trading for Marcus Smart covers part of those needs, but the Grizzlies could still use more depth at the point (due to Ja Morant’s suspension) and up front (due to Brandon Clarke being out). This MLE will fill one of those needs, or potentially both if they split it between two players.

The Timberwolves should be in range of adding help via the MLE, pending what happens with Naz Reid. If he leaves town, Minnesota will have the full $12.4 million to spend. If Reid stays on a reasonable deal, the Wolves could still be in play to use some or all of the MLE to fill out their guard rotation.

The Knicks are in a bit of a weird spot, and that’s because of Josh Hart’s player option. New York and Hart agreed to push his option deadline back by five days. If Hart opts in, he’ll be on the books at just under $13 million. That would give the Knicks access to the full MLE, and they could then extend Hart’s deal to add years onto it. If Hart opts out, he’ll likely land a bigger deal and that will eat into New York’s ability to use the full MLE this summer.

Portland could use up most of their flexibility this summer, if they re-sign Jerami Grant, Matisse Thybulle and Drew Eubanks. If any of those players comes on a value deal, or any of them leave town, the Blazers will definitely have the full MLE to spend. And, of course, there’s always the option of a trade that sets the franchise down an entirely different path too. It’s fair to say the entire league is waiting to see what Portland chooses to do.

Toronto seems hellbent on avoiding rebuilding or going all-in. The Raptors should have the $12.4 Non-Taxpayer MLE to spend, pending what happens with Fred VanVleet and Jakob Poeltl. If one or both move to new teams, the MLE is a lock for Toronto. If they re-sign both to the type of contracts they are looking for, Toronto might be closer to having the Taxpayer MLE to spend. Everyone around the NBA is wondering exactly what the Raptors are up to.

The Wizards are on a new course towards rebuilding. They’ve already traded Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, and Washington isn’t done trading either. Pending where they finish things up roster-wise after further trades, the Wizards may not have a lot of use for spending the MLE on a veteran. But they’ll have it available, should they choose to use it.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

  1. Atlanta Hawks

  2. Boston Celtics

  3. Brooklyn Nets

  4. Denver Nuggets

  5. Los Angeles Lakers

  6. New Orleans Pelicans

  7. Philadelphia 76ers

The Taxpayer MLE is no longer much of an advantage for the NBA’s more-expensive teams. It’s been knocked down to just $5 million in value, but the real kicker is that using the Taxpayer MLE hard caps a team at the second tax apron. That makes it hard to find the right amount of wiggle room to use this MLE, while staying under that hard cap.

Atlanta’s roster is a bit of a mess. They have a ton of long-term salary committed to several players, and other key players are up for extensions and new contracts soon. The Hawks will probably forgo using the MLE this summer, and will keep it in their back pocket to use later, if necessary.

The Celtics ability to use the Taxpayer MLE is linked to Grant Williams. If Williams leaves, Boston can put themselves in range to use the MLE. If Williams re-signs, then Boston is too tight to the second apron to use the MLE.

Brooklyn’s spending power this summer is dependent on what happens with Cam Johnson. The Nets are clear of the tax for now, but only by about $10 million. If they re-sign Johnson, or are forced to match an offer sheet at or above $20 million, Brooklyn will be over the tax line. They should still have enough room under the second apron to use the Taxpayer MLE, but it’ll be tight.

The Nuggets could have enough wiggle room to use the Taxpayer MLE and to stay under the hard cap at the second apron, but only if they lose Bruce Brown. If Brown re-signs on a team-friendly deal using his Non-Bird rights, then things probably get too tight for Denver to use the MLE and to stay under the hard cap.

The Lakers are in an interesting spot this summer. They could still be a cap space team, but all signs point to the Lakers staying over and re-signing several of their own free agents. Even fair-value deals will push Los Angeles up near, or over, the tax line. If they can work things to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE, while re-signing players, that would be a huge win. But this one will probably leave the Lakers with about $5 million extra to spend beyond re-signings.

New Orleans has enough clearance to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE without tripping into hard cap range at the first apron. But the Pelicans are likely to try and stay out of the tax entirely. That means they’ll limit themselves to somewhere between the Taxpayer MLE of $5 million and the Non-Taxpayer MLE of $12.4 million to spend this summer.

Philadelphia’s exception availability is almost entirely dependent on what happens with James Harden. If Harden re-signs for the max Philadelphia is likely limited to the Taxpayer MLE. If Harden takes a good chunk less than the max, and he did that last year, that should open up the Non-Taxpayer MLE for the Sixers.

Super Tax Teams (no signing exception)

  1. Golden State Warriors

  2. LA Clippers

  3. Miami Heat

  4. Milwaukee Bucks

  5. Phoenix Suns

Since we did our last spending power projections after the trade deadline, the new CBA terms were released. In the new agreement, one of the penalties against the most-expensive teams is that they lose the ability to use the Taxpayer MLE. And that’s one of the penalties that triggers immediately, while several others don’t kick in until the 2024-25 season. That means these teams are limited to trades, re-signings, signings draft picks and signing minimum deals.

The Warriors are the poster boys of the new super tax penalties. They’ve already moved some long-term money by swapping Jordan Poole for Chris Paul. But that’s for down the line. This summer, Golden State is still well over the tax line and will be even more so, should they re-sign Draymond Green.

The Clippers are Enemy 1A for the new super tax penalties, just behind their neighbors to the north. LA has a pretty full roster, so they’ll focus on trades to being in any outside help.

Miami is already wildly expensive, by virtue of re-signing their own players. That’s not a criticism, as those deals have all been solid enough values. But now the Heat have to re-sign a couple of key free agents in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. Retaining even one of them will push Miami up and over the super tax line.

The Bucks could end up dodging the super tax and opening up a little spending power, but that would be at the expense of Khris Middleton and/or Brook Lopez. Milwaukee would rather re-sign those two, and a few other key free agents, than have minimal ability to sign an outside free agent.

The summer of 2023 was intended as a “grace period” for the NBA’s most-expensive teams. The idea was for them to take a year to get their books in order before the big penalties started hitting in 2024. The Suns went the other way. They looked at this as their last chance to add big money, and they did so by trading for Bradley Beal. Phoenix is now limited to re-signing their own players, maybe another trade or two and then filling out with minimum contracts.

 

Keith SmithJune 23, 2023

The 2023 NBA Draft is in the books. 58 players joined the NBA ranks (the Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers forfeited their second-round selections due to tampering with Lonzo Ball and P.J. Tucker, respectively), and a slew more have already agreed to two-way contracts and camp deals.

This draft was a bit lighter on trades than recent years. As various deals finalize, it looks as though we’ll have 10 to 12 total trades. Only two trades agreed to on draft day featured established NBA players. Most others involved draft pick movement, where 2023 picks swapped in exchange for a team adding a future draft pick down the line.

Instead of your typical “Winners and Losers” post-draft piece, we’re going to focus on the financial fallout from the draft from some of the draft’s big movers.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas came into the offseason without a lot of flexibility, but with several needs to fill. Of course, the primary concern is to re-sign Kyrie Irving, but the Mavericks have other work to do too. The draft got them started.

Dallas swung a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder that saw them drop back just two picks, while shedding the $17 million salary of Davis Bertans. That shed of Bertans created a $17 million Traded Player Exception (TPE), and that came into play with the Mavs second draft-day trade.

After dropping back from the 10th pick, Dallas selected Dereck Lively II with the 12th pick, Lively seems like a perfect fit for the team’s frontcourt. He’s a defender, rebounder and rim runner. If he can set good enough screens, he’ll work nicely with Luka Doncic and Irving.

The Mavs weren’t done there. In their second deal, Dallas used their newly-created TPE to bring in Richaun Holmes from the Sacramento Kings, while also picking up the 24th pick. The Mavericks selected Olivier-Maxence Prosper. He seems like an immediate replacement for what Dallas lost when they traded Dorian Finney-Smith in the deal to acquire Irving. Holmes will fill a need alongside Lively in the frontcourt. Those two should give Dallas 48 minutes of solid center play.

As free agency opens, the Mavericks should be about $58.4 million under the first tax apron. That should give Dallas enough wiggle room to use the Taxpayer MLE of $5 million, while avoiding the second tax apron, assuming Irving re-signs on a max deal.

For only moving back two spots in the draft, Dallas did quite well. They shed a burdensome salary, got two centers and a forward, while creating some spending power. That’s a good night’s work.

Sacramento Kings

No team changed their summer spending outlook more than Sacramento did. With one move, the Kings created over $35 million in cap space for this offseason. That puts Sacramento in play to go a lot of different directions.

As referenced above, the Kings sent out Richaun Holmes and the 24th pick (Olivier-Maxence Prosper) to the Mavericks. As of this writing, it’s unclear what Sacramento got back from Dallas, but it seems likely that it will be a minor item (draft rights to a player or a protected second-round pick). The goal seems to have been to clear cap space for Sacramento.

What can they do with all this space? The options are aplenty.

One way to use some of this space could be to renegotiate-and-extend Domantas Sabonis’ contract. At his current $22 million, it doesn’t really make sense for Sabonis to sign a veteran extension, as he’d be leaving quite a bit of money on the table.

In a renegotiation-and-extension, the Kings could bump Sabonis’ salary up quite a bit for this coming season, while also adding on some new years moving forward. For a full explainer on this process, we wrote about the Indiana Pacers renegotiating-and-extending Myles Turner ahead of that being exactly what happened. Sacramento could take the same approach, coincidentally, with Turner’s former teammate Sabonis.

If the Kings prefer to hold off, and have a wink-wink agreement in place to take care of Sabonis in the summer of 2024, they can have the fourth-most cap space in the NBA this summer. That’s huge, as the three teams above them on the list (Houston, Utah and San Antonio) are still in various stages of rebuilding.

Could the Kings get in on an offer for Khris Middleton? Kyle Kuzma? Bring Harrison Barnes back for a bit less than last year, then still have around $17 million to spend? Sacramento could also use that space to facilitate a trade for a bigger-salary player. Again, the options are plentiful.

After years of wandering the NBA wilderness, the Kings had a great season. They’re core is in place long-term. Now it’s time to supplement that group and start a new streak, one of playoff appearances.

Oklahoma City Thunder

This one is fairly simple. Oklahoma City could have had over $30 million in cap space this summer. They targeted Cason Wallace as their guy, so they sacrificed about half of their cap space to eat Davis Bertans’ contract from Dallas and moved up for Wallace.

In order to bring in Bertans, the Thunder will have to dip under the cap first. Then they can bring in the veteran forward using straight cap space. That should still leave Oklahoma City with around $16 million or so in cap space.

Also: The Thunder rehab process will probably have Davis Bertans hitting about 45% from three and playing great at the trade deadline. At that point, they’ll probably flip him for a future first-round pick, because that’s what Sam Presti and the Thunder do.

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons ate into their cap space a little bit, and gave up to two future second-round picks, to get an additional first-round pick. Detroit comes away with Marcus Sasser, who should be a terrific fit for their backcourt.

The Pistons will still have about $30 million in cap space to work with this summer. That’s enough for Troy Weaver to make some moves. Whether that’s eating more contracts in exchange for assets, or signing veterans to push the rebuild forward is to be determined.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers were linked to Jarace Walker about as soon as the lottery order was set. Indiana got their guy, while moving back just one pick and snagging a couple of extra second-round picks in the process. That alone would have been a major win for the Pacers.

But dropping back a pick, also gives Indiana a bit more in spending power this summer. The Pacers will hit the offseason with the fifth-most cap space at just over $32 million. Without any key free agents to re-sign, Kevin Pritchard and staff can get to work on adding to a roster that is better than you think.

Also: The Pacers only really have about one roster spot to fill. That means they can overpay to get a targeted free agent. Think about then the Philadelphia 76ers were pushing the process forward and overpaid for JJ Redick. That worked out tremendously well. Indiana doesn’t have to spread money around to fill a bunch of roster spots. They can do the same sort of thing and come away with a free agent they really like. As long as the deal is short enough, it’s almost impossible for it to turn sour.

Washington Wizards

We’ve already broken down the Bradley Beal trade, Kristaps Porzingis trade and Jordan Poole-Chris Paul swap in depth. But the Wizards weren’t done. And, to be honest, they’ve still got a ton of work to do, as the roster skews guard- and veteran-heavy for a rebuilding team. Sources said the Wizards are engaged with several teams in trade talks leading up to the opening of free agency.

As far as the draft went, Washington moved up a pick, at the expense of their newly-acquired second-round picks, to draft Bilal Coulibaly. There isn’t a major financial impact here, but the Wizards did take on slightly more money for Coulibaly with the seventh pick, as opposed to the eighth pick. But they got the highest-riser as far as draft stock goes, and Coulibaly now becomes a core piece moving forward.

In addition, Patrick Baldwin Jr. was added to the Poole-Paul trade. That’s a great flyer for Washington. He’s got a ton of talent and should see a lot more minutes with the Wizards than he was going to get with the Warriors.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets were very busy in the days leading up to the draft, but in a measured, targeted way. Denver has a top-heavy salary sheet with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. on max deals. Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both on healthy mid-range contracts. None of that is negative, as that’s the core of a title team.

However, it does mean Denver needs to be smart about filling out their roster. They’ve already got Christian Braun on a rookie scale deal, and they’re excited about Peyton Watson’s potential as their other 2022 first-round draftee.

The Nuggets doubled down (tripled down?) by moving future picks to secure three selections in the late-first and early-second round in the 2023 draft. Julian Strawther will be a rotation player eventually on his first-round rookie scale deal. In the second round, Denver snagged Jalen Pickett and Hunter Tyson. Presumably both will sign under the new Second Round Pick Exception, which will give Denver team-control for three to four seasons at right around the minimum for both players.

Even if only one of these players pans out, that’s a rotation contributor on a team-friendly deal. That’s key for a team that will be dancing around the super tax line for the next few years.

 

Keith SmithJune 22, 2023

The Washington Wizards are continuing to wheel and deal. The new front office swung an early trade by sending Bradley Beal to the Suns for Chris Paul. The Wizards followed that up by sending Kristaps Porzingis to the Boston Celtics in a three-team trade that also featured the Memphis Grizzlies.

But the Wizards are far from done. Chris Paul’s stay in the capital won’t last very long. In fact, it won’t even really happen, as Washington is sending Chris Paul to the Golden State Warriors in exchange for Jordan Poole. Here are the parameters of the deal:

Wizards acquire

Jordan Poole, Ryan Rollins, top-20 protected 2030 first-round pick, 2027 second-round pick

Warriors acquire

Chris Paul

The Mechanics

The trade that will send Chris Paul, however briefly, to Washington, must take place before June 30 to be cap legal. When the new restrictions on salary-matching in trades for super tax teams kick in come July 1 with the new CBA, the Wizards and Suns wouldn’t be able to work a deal. At least not as easily as they have.

This trade, in the exact opposite way, must wait until after July 1 (really until noon Eastern on July 6 when the moratorium ends) to be legal. The reason for that is that Jordan Poole’s extension doesn’t kick in until July 1. Until that point, he’d be subject the poison pill. That means his deal wouldn’t be large enough, even with the inclusion of Rollins, to match salary for Paul.

That means Chris Paul will be a member of the Wizards for about two weeks or so, while probably never leaving the west coast the entire time.

The Wizards

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $29,675,221
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $30,800,000
Difference: -$1,124,779

Washington is continuing to reshape their roster. In effect, they split Bradley Beal’s contract in half by acquiring Jordan Poole. And they picked up a couple of picks in the process. That’s not bad work, even if it does eat into some of the incredible cap flexibility the Wizards had achieved by trading Beal and Kristaps Porzingis.

Despite coming off a down year, Poole is a good player. He lost some of his efficiency last season with the Warriors, as he seemingly struggled to readapt to being a bench player. Poole seems like the kind of player who needs to be right in it, vs heating up quickly off the bench.

With Washington, Poole projects to be their primary offensive option. At this point, we have no real idea what the Wizards roster will look like around Poole, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll have anyone better than he is offensively. That’ll mean a lot of shots and points, and a good number of assists, but his shooting percentages and overall efficiency may suffer.

Rollins is being painted as a throw-in to this deal, but he has talent. His rookie season was mostly a wash due to a foot injury, but Rollins flashed at times. In nine games in the G League, he showed the same knack for shooting and scoring that he showed in his two seasons at Toledo. He’ll probably get a chance to play on this rebuilding Washington team.

The Wizards are also getting a first-round pick from the Warriors that will convey long after Golden State’s golden era will have wrapped up. It’s top-20 protected, so the upside is fairly limited, but it’s another asset in a growing pile for the Wizards.

As for the cap, we said Washington basically split Beal’s salary in half by acquiring Poole. That takes some flexibility away, compared to taking back no long-term money. Poole is owed $125 million over the next four seasons, with salaries ranging from $27.9 million for next season to $34.5 million in his final season. But that’s not the end of the world.

When we wrote up the Porzingis’ trade, we made note that the Wizards could create up to $100 million in cap space next summer. That’s now down to about $70 million or so. Spending $100 million in a single summer, for a rebuilding team, was unlikely. So, Washington takes a chance that Poole will rediscover his game as a primary guy, in exchange for some likely unspendable cap space. And, who knows? Maybe Poole will get traded at some point too.

The Warriors

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $30,800,000
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $29,675,221
Difference: $1,124,779

Chris Paul was once Enemy #1 of Warriors fans. Now, Dubs fans will be hoping he can help them extend their title contention window by at least one more year.

On the court, this trade gives Golden State the best backup guard to Stephen Curry that they’ve ever had. And Curry and Paul will share the floor plenty too. Paul is slowing down and not the dominant, game-controlling force he once was. But he’s still plenty good. In fact, Paul is overqualified for the role Golden State is going to put him in.

And that’s a good thing.

Paul’s issue at this point is his workload. He can’t hold up playing 30-plus minutes per game over a full season. With the Warriors, Paul will likely be down around 20 minutes per game, and he’ll be able to sit when he needs to. And if Curry suffers another untimely injury, Paul can step up and more than capably fill in.

But as great as The Point God is, this trade was heavily influenced by the new CBA. The Warriors were seen as the primary reason (with the LA Clippers coming in second) for the new super tax restrictions in the incoming CBA. Golden State had a lot of long-term money on their books after extending both Poole and Andrew Wiggins last summer. And they’re looking to re-sign Draymond Green this summer, after he just opted out of his deal too. Add it up, and the NBA’s most expensive team was going to remain at that level for the foreseeable future. And that meant little wiggle room for building out the roster.

That meant something had to break and someone had to go. That someone ended up being Jordan Poole. If Paul is out of the picture after one season (his $30 million contract is fully non-guaranteed for 2024-25), the Warriors will have cut $97 million in guaranteed salary off their books. That will help create a little flexibility moving forward, as Golden State tries to keep that title window pried open for the next few years.

One last benefit for the Warriors: they kept Chris Paul from joining division and conference rivals in Los Angeles with the Lakers and Clippers. Those two teams were considered the front-runners to get Paul, either via trade or in free agency. Now, both teams are left to figure out other options at the lead guard spot.

Keith SmithJune 22, 2023

(UPDATED version of a previous article after the trade was adjusted)

The NBA offseason is off and running! The Washington Wizards got things started by agreeing to trade Bradley Beal to the Phoenix Suns, and now they’re continuing their teardown. Washington has agreed to the parameters of a three-team trade with the Boston Celtics and the Memphis Grizzlies. Here are the basics:

Celtics Acquire
Kristaps Porzingis, #25 pick in 2023 Draft, future Golden State Warriors first-round pick

Grizzlies Acquire
Marcus Smart

Wizards Acquire
Danilo Gallinari, Tyus Jones, Mike Muscala, #35 pick in 2023 Draft

(Note: If deal terms change significantly, we’ll update the article accordingly.)

The Mechanics

Much like the trade of Bradley Beal to Phoenix, this is a deal that needs to happen in the current league year. Because both Boston is close to the super tax line, it was far easier to make this trade happen now.

For the Wizards, their part is again fairly easy. They’re trading out the $36 million owed to Kristaps Porzingis (he’ll have to opt in for next season to make this deal possible) and taking back about $24.3 million. Washington will create a Traded Player Exception (TPE) of about $11.7 million in this deal.

For Boston, they need to get this deal done in this league year. Doing so allows them to use the salary-matching rules that allow them to bring in 125% of the outgoing salary. That’s Marcus Smart, Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala in this case. Acquiring the 25th pick in the 2023 Draft comes with $0 as far as salary-matching goes, but it does push Boston a bit closer to super tax.

The Grizzlies also take on some money here by swapping Tyus Jones for Marcus Smart, but they would have been fine to complete this deal now or later. The main push for Memphis to get this deal now is clarity around the draft.

The Celtics

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $38,639,880
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $29,219,996
Difference: $9,419,884

Boston was always going to do something this offseason. After falling short in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics were searching for that move to put them over the top. All signs pointed to Malcolm Brogdon being traded, and he was until the LA Clippers backed out of the deal. Instead, the longest-tenured Celtic, and the team’s heart and soul, were sent out.

Kristaps Porzingis is an excellent fit for the Celtics on both ends of the floor. He’s coming off the best season of his eight-year career. Porzingis also turns 28 years old this summer, and is entering what should be the prime years of his career.

On offense, Porzingis gives Boston another stretch big. In many ways, think of him as the Celtics replacement for Grant Williams, who played a key role off the Boston bench for the last few years. Porzingis won’t come off the bench, but he’ll have a somewhat similar, if greatly expanded, role in Boston’s offense.

Porzingis is a 36% shooter from three for his career. This past season, he knocked down 38.5% of his three-pointers on 356 attempts. Not only is Porzingis a good shooter, and a volume one, but he has some of the deepest range in the NBA.

Because Porzingis was rarely stationed as a pure spot-up guy, the vast majority of his three-point attempts came from above the break. On those looks, he knocked down 38.1%. On shots from 25 to 29 feet (deeper threes), Porzingis retained his effectiveness by hitting 38.3% of his triples. That sort of deep range will open up the floor for the Celtics in ways they haven’t seen yet. That will create driving lanes for Boston’s host of off-the-dribble playmakers and scorers.

That shooting, combined with Porzingis’ ability to take players down into the post, and to finish as roll man, should make him the sort of lethal third scorer the Celtics haven’t had over the last few years. He’s not the passer that Boston’s other bigs are, but there are some signs that he can do more as a facilitator than he’s shown to this point.

On defense, Porzingis will likely function in the role where Robert Williams has had a lot of success for the Celtics: roaming as a weakside helper. Al Horford will likely continue to guard the bigger bigs (think Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, etc.), while Porzingis will be able to float and help. Porzingis is coming off a pretty good individual defensive season. His defensive impact should get even better while surrounded by the best defenders he’s ever played with.

On the downside, Porzingis was relatively healthy last season, as he appeared in 65 games. That’s the most games he’s played over the last six seasons, which includes an entirely missed season after a torn ACL. Repeating that level of availability will be a big part of determining the success level of this trade for the Celtics. If he misses half the season, that will lessen his overall impact.

Porzingis will also see his usage rate, which generally hovers in the high-20% range, drop by a good amount. Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown key the Celtics offense, and that isn’t going to change. But what Porzingis trades out in volume could be made up for in efficiency, as he’ll be playing with the most talented group he’s been with yet. That should mean a healthy diet of good looks on offense.

Marcus Smart is a major loss for the Celtics. There’s no way to spin it other than he was the team’s heart and soul. Whenever Boston absolutely needed a play, Smart was the guy who made it. But after nine years, the Celtics decided it was time to shake things up.

Smart’s defense slipped noticeably last season, after winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2022. He was still good against bigger players, but the quicker perimeter players gave him trouble. Smart is also injury-prone and an inconsistent shooter.

But Smart was still a good defender, the Celtics best playmaker and the guy who regularly got the offense started. Beyond all that, he was a loved and trusted fan favorite, a team leader and a Celtic through and through. Those things are harder to quantify than the statistical stuff, but that doesn’t make them any less real.

There are already reports that this trade will ultimately cost Boston Grant Williams. As a pending restricted free agent, the Celtics could choose to work a sign-and-trade with Williams, to return something of value. Or they may just choose to make things easy and let Williams go free and clear. His shooting-defense combination will be missed, as will Williams’ ability to keep the locker room loose.

In the backcourt, the Celtics still have decisions to make with Malcolm Brogdon and Payton Pritchard. Brogdon now knows he was being traded, so that’s something Brad Stevens will have to handle. Brogdon’s injury history was also apparently a factor in the LA Clippers pulling out of the deal, which is scary for Boston. Brogdon has $45 million owed to him over the next two seasons, and that’s a lot if his elbow injury suffered in the Eastern Conference Finals is worse than originally thought.

As for Pritchard, there’s a chance the Celtics keep him around now. The path to playing time is a little clearer with Smart out of the picture. Pritchard should be able to get regular minutes off the bench., even if big minutes still won’t be there. His shooting has always been a valuable skill, and Pritchard’s playmaking is improving all the time. This remains a situation to keep an eye on.

In a real sense, Boston may be trading Marcus Smart and Grant Williams for Kristaps Porzingis and Payton Pritchard. That’s probably a win for the Celtics, pending what ultimately happens with Porzingis and Pritchard contractually.

Losing Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala are sort of “shrug” impacts for Boston. Gallinari unfortunately never got suit up for the Celtics. Muscala was fine, but didn’t play enough after being acquired at the trade deadline for anyone to get worked up about his inclusion in the deal.

Adding two first-round picks for the Celtics is a key part of this trade, considering they gave up Smart in this deal. As an already-expensive team, and only getting more so, Boston had to put themselves in position to add cheaper, team-controlled talent through the draft. The 25th pick in this year’s draft is a start. The future Golden State Warriors first-round pick has some protections, but should deliver as soon as next season. If nothing else, it’s additional capital to toss in a deal down the line.

There are already rumors that Boston will look to extend Porzingis. He likely won’t get near the $36 million he’s set to make this season, but Porzingis could command a first-year salary in an extension of $30 million. And Pritchard is extension-eligible. It remains unlikely Boston will extend him, but it’s more in play now than it would have been with Smart on the roster. With super max extensions looming for Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, the Celtics cap sheet will remain pretty fat with guaranteed salary.

Finally, to wrap things up for Boston, they could be in position to use the $5 million Taxpayer MLE now. If Grant Williams is out of the picture, Boston should have enough room under the second apron to sign a player via the Taxpayer MLE. That player will likely replace whatever the Celtics had hoped to get from Gallinari, after he lost last season due to a torn ACL.

The Grizzlies

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $18,917,046
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $16,623,680
Difference: $2,293,366

Marcus Smart might be the most “grit ‘n’ grind” player to never have been a part of that Memphis Grizzlies culture. Now, he will be.

Smart is a perfect fit for the Grizzlies as both a Ja Morant replacement (temporarily) and a Dillon Brooks replacement (long-term). Even though his perimeter defense slipped, he’s still a top-tier defender. Smart is also an incredibly switchable player. Put him with Jaren Jackson Jr. and your options at the other three positions increase a lot, because they’ll cover up so much on defense for everyone else.

On offense, Smart will take over at the Grizzlies starting point guard to open next season. When Morant is back from his suspension, Smart will either transition into a bench role, or Memphis can run a three-guard group with him, Morant and Desmond Bane in the starting lineup. Either way, that’s a terrific three-guard rotation.

Tyus Jones was terrific for the Grizzlies as a backup and spot-starter. Smart will be a different look, but he’s a more than adequate replacement. And Memphis is already used to inconsistent shooting from their time with Dillon Brooks, so that shouldn’t be all that much of an adjustment. Finding another guard to play behind Smart is important, because his health history shows that he’ll miss some time himself each season.

On the cap sheet, Smart is signed for just shy of $60 million over the next three seasons. That’s perfectly fair value, and it removes some of the uncertainty for Memphis of what would happen with Jones after this season. The Grizzlies have a core of guys locked in for the next few years, and that’s huge as they continue their ascent in the Western Conference.

As for the draft picks, it was time for Memphis to part with some of them. The Grizzlies have drafted and developed as well as anyone over the last several years. But that’s resulted in a roster that is pretty stuffed, and you can’t pay everyone. Parting with a couple of picks to upgrade the rotation is a solid investment for Memphis.

The Wizards

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $24,302,950
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $36,016,200
Difference: -$11,713,250

Much like the Bradley Beal trade, this more or less amounts to a salary-dump for Washington. They are taking back far less money than they send out. Tyus Jones, Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala are all on expiring contracts, so their goal of long-term cap flexibility was achieved for the Wizards.

Jones is a good player, but Washington has a glut of point guards now. They’ve got Jones, Monte Morris, Delon Wright and the recently-acquired Chris Paul. That’ll sort itself out through further transactions, but it’s fair to say no one should plan for Jones, or any of the others, to be a long-term Wizard.

The same is true of Gallinari and Muscala. Both could be parts of the rotation and eat up some regular season minutes. Or either, or both, could be moved in another deal. Again, neither is very likely to be in DC beyond this upcoming season.

This trade is maybe a touch worse for Washington than the original version with the LA Clippers, because they missed out on getting a first-round pick. But the Wizards only moved back five spots, and they got a better player in Jones. So, it’s probably closer to neutral than truly worse.

Now, Washington can continue with their teardown. The Wizards haven’t taken on any guaranteed money beyond this current season. There’s a chance that Washington could have as little as $33 million on the books for the 24-25 season. That would translate into somewhere around $100 million in potential cap space.

Cap space alone has never won anything. But having that sort of flexibility is what the new Wizards front office wanted. With these two trades of Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, they achieved it.

The Clippers

LA reportedly backed out of the original deal due to concerns about Malcolm Brogdon’s injury history. That’s fair, given Brogdon is dealing with a torn ligament in the elbow of his shooting arm. And his long-term history isn’t much cleaner.

Now, LA brings Marcus Morris and Amir Coffey back into the fold, while keeping the 30th pick in this year’s draft. But they still don’t have a real answer at point guard, beyond re-signing Russell Westbrook for the veteran minimum.

However, LA and Washington’s part of the deal was fine, it was the Brogdon portion that collapsed. That means the Clippers and Wizards could re-engage on talks, possibly centered around Chris Paul. That would need to get done in the next week, before the league year changes over, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

Michael GinnittiJune 21, 2023

With the 2023 NBA Draft just a few hours away, we’ll dive into the top earning NBA player from each first round draft slot in league history (for a minute).

RELATED: Top Earning NBA Players by Draft Pick

#1 Overall

LeBron James, $431,859,107, 2003

Drafted in 2003 LeBron has been one of the (very) rare examples of living up to the #1 hype and then some. He'll bag another $46.9M this upcoming season, with a $50.6M player option awaiting next summer, putting him in the running to surpass $500M on the court.

#2 Overall

Kevin Durant, $350,297,591, 2007

The second pick behind Greg Oden in 2007, Durant has now signed 7 contracts in the NBA. His current deal in Phoenix holds another $150M to be earning, putting him just under $500M in total.

#3 Overall

James Harden, $301,660,574, 2009

Harden went to OKC behind Blake Griffin & Hasheem Thabeet in 2009 and is currently an unrestricted free agent at age 33. There's a world where he locks in another $210M with another max contract this summer.

#4 Overall

Chris Paul, $359,109,419, 2005

The three players drafted ahead of Chris Paul in 2005 (Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Deron Williams) combined to earn $398M in their careers. Paul is now guaranteed $25M in 2023-24, though his contract status is very much up in the air with the recent trade to Washington.

#5 Overall

Kevin Love, $265,818,402, 2008

Love just finished his 4th contract in the league, spanning 15 seasons with 3 organizations. He was selected 5th in 2008 behind Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, & Russell Westbrook.

#6 Overall

Damian Lillard, $233,708,358, 2012

Dame has earned over $233M in just 11 NBA seasons (drafted in 2012), averaging over $21M per year thus far. He's guaranteed another $216.2M through 2026-27 - no matter where he's playing from here out.

#7 Overall

Stephen Curry, $302,806,362, 2009

Steph was selected 4 picks behind James Harden in 2009, but has now (barely) surpassed him in career earnings (despite an extremely team friendly rookie extension back in 2013 (4 years, $44M). Curry's current deal will carry him over the $470M earned mark after 2025-26.

#8 Overall

Rudy Gay, $174,781,320, 2006

It's been a tough go from the #8 spot historically speaking, but so was the entire 2006 draft to be perfectly fair. Gay's $174M is the 4th most earned out of that draft class, behind only Kyle Lowry (#24, $245M), LaMarcus Aldridge (#2 overall, $213M), & Paul Millsap (#47 overall, $192M).

#9 Overall

Gordon Hayward, $236,884,749, 2010

Hayward is entering a contract year in Charlotte, set to finish out his 4th NBA deal in 2023-24. He'll increase his career earnings north of $268M, and should soar past $300M with a new deal next summer.

#10 Overall

Paul George, $259,692,078, 2010

The 8x All Star, 6x All-NBA #10 pick in the 2010 draft was selected immediately after Gordon Hayward, and holds future salaries of $45.6M & a $48.7M player option on his current contract.

#11 Overall

Klay Thompson, $222,944,784, 2011

Thompson enters a contract year in 2023-24, set to earn a fully guaranteed $43.2M in Golden Sate, raising his career earnings north of $266M.

#12 Overall

Steven Adams, $145,144,832, 2013

Adams was the 4th center drafted in 2013 (Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel), but he's nearly out-earned them all combinen to date. He holds another $25.2M fully guaranteed through the 2024-25 season.

#13 Overall

Devin Booker, $130,516,653, 2015

Don't be deceived by the $130M next to Booker's name right now. There's another $260M fully guaranteed coming down the pipeline, putting him inline to hold this top spot at #13 overall for years to come.

#14 Overall

Marcus Morris Sr., $89,249,640, 2011

Enjoy seeing Marcus Morris here for a minute, because the $104M fully guaranteed (and plenty more to come) on Bam Adebayo's deal will takeover the top spot this time next year.

#15 Overall

Kawhi Leonard, $230,926,127, 2011

It's been 4 seasons since Leonard helped the Raptors snag an unlikely title, and he's earned over $146M since then. His current deal in LA holds a $45.6M salary for the upcoming season, and a $48.7M player option thereafter, putting him on pace for $325M earned on the court.

#16 Overall

Nikola Vucevic, $154,338,639, 2011

Vucevic just completed his 3rd NBA contract, pulling his earnings north of $150M on the court. The 32 year old will be seeking another multi-year guarantee on the open market this summer.

#17 Overall

Jrue Holiday, $219,128,885, 2009

As it currently stands, Jrue Holiday is set to earn $291M through the 2024-25 season. He just posted near career numbers at 32 years old, making it perfectly plausible to believe he can be a $300M player when it's all said and done.

#18 Overall

Eric Bledsoe, $128,052,507, 2010

A solid 12 year career was dampened by a buyout/stretch of his final contract by Portland, but he's a $130M+ player no matter what.

#19 Overall

Tobias Harris, $209,233,355, 2011

There's been plenty said about the amount of money Tobias Harris has been earning over the past 4 seasons, but he'll be a $250M player at 31 years old. There's plenty of room for more in this career.

#20 Overall

Evan Fournier, $126,527,226, 2012

Fournier is (likely) finishing out his 3rd contract in 2023-24, with $18.8M still to be earned as a role player for the Knicks. The 30-year-old can probably latch on as a depth piece for a few more seasons, carrying him north of $150M when it's all said and done.

#21 Overall

Rajon Rondo, $115,777,250, 2006

Rondo's 16 year career included 9 contracts, culminating with a 5 year, $55M rookie scale extension from the Celtics back in 2009.

#22 Overall

Courtney Lee, $74,196,509, 2008

The second-lowest earning draft pick in the first round, Lee sits atop the #22 list despite a max salary of just $11.9M in his 12 year career. Jarrett Allen is coming for this spot quickly.

#23 Overall

Tayshaun Prince, $80,448,048, 2002

Prince only eclipsed the $10M+ mark in annual cash earned twice in his 14 seasons, but he might hold this spot for a few more seasons regardless.

#24 Overall

Kyle Lowry, $245,366,160, 2006

Easily the top earning player picked outside of the Top 10, Lowry is set to finish out his 6th NBA contract in 2023-24. He'll tack on another $29.6M (fully guaranteed), bringing his career total north of $275M.

#25 Overall

Nicolas Batum, $187,412,357, 2008

Batum was bought out of a contract 3 years ago, and has since locked in almost $32M, a remarkable turnaround. He'll wind up a $200M+ earning player when it's said and done.

#26 Overall

George Hill, $112,353,436, 2008

Hill completed his 5th NBA contract this season, but has only eclipsed the $10M mark twice in 15 seasons.

#27 Overall

Rudy Gobert, $176,207,582, 2013

Gobert may never do historic things on the court, but amassing $300M out of the #27 draft slot puts him in extremely rare air. He's guaranteed $131.4M through 2025-26, when he'll be 33 years old.

#28 Overall

Tony Parker, $165,843,436, 2001

The tail end of Parker's career benefited from the boost in NBA salaries that has taken things to unforeseeable levels of late. It'll take another decent contract for Jordan Poole to have Parker supplanted out of this spot soon.

#29 Overall

Cory Joseph, $71,183,160, 2011

The #29 pick holds the lowest earning player on this list, but Derrick White & Dejounte Murray are coming for this spot soon (barely).

#30 Overall

Jimmy Butler, $218,065,231, 2011

By the time the 2025-26 season is completed, the #30 overall pick will have one of the top earning players in the history of the game attached to it. Butler has salaries of $45.1M, $48.8M, & $52.4M ahead of him still, locking in over $364M for his career.



RELATED: Top Earning NBA Players by Draft Pick

Keith SmithJune 19, 2023

NBA Twitter is an…interesting place. Yeah, let’s say interesting. That works. Once and while, amid all the incessant GOAT talk, blatant player stanning and outright name-calling, a really good point emerges from the muck. In the afternoon of Monday, June 19, one of those good points found its way to the surface.

Sean Highkin of The Rose Garden Report (great independent coverage of the Portland Trail Blazers) noted that Trail Blazers and New Orleans Pelicans linked up on a high-profile trade in recent years when C.J. McCollum was trades to the Pelicans. This came up amidst the rumors that New Orleans is attempting to trade up to get the third overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft that Portland currently owns.

Matt Moore of Action Network noted in a quote tweet of Sean’s original tweet that pre-existing relationships between front office decision makers and teams matters more than most realize. Here’s the interaction from Sean and Matt:

We’ve noted here on Spotrac before that some teams are more regular trade partners than others. But the interaction between Sean and Matt got us wondering: Just how often do certain general managers trade together?

We pulled the list of all of the current primary front office decision makers and examined how often they’ve traded with each other. The results were pretty interesting, so we’re sharing them here.

A few notes on the data:

  • From this point forward, we’ll refer to the primary front office decision maker as the GM. NBA titles range from the traditional GM title to Vice President to President, and probably eventually Supreme Overlord of Basketball Ops. For simplicity’s sake, we’re going with GM from here on out.

  • We compared GMs in their current job only. For example, Danny Ainge was the GM of the Boston Celtics from May of 2003 to June of 2021. But in this sample, we’re only looking at Ainge’s tenure running the Utah Jazz front office starting in December of 2021.

  • We only looked at current GMs who have made trades together while in their current roles. For example, Danny Ainge and Pat Riley hooked up for a handful of deals while running the Celtics and Miami Heat, respectively. However, the two have yet to make a deal during the time Ainge has run the Jazz front office.

  • This data set includes a lot of three-team trades, several four-team trades and even a five-time trade. In that situation, we gave credit for each of the teams as having traded with each other, even if they didn’t directly send something to one of the other teams in a multi-team deal. The reason is that the trade likely falls apart without the participation of all parties involved.

  • The Golden State Warriors and Washington Wizards are both working with new front office leaders. The Warriors have no trades in the set, but we went ahead and connected the Wizards with the Phoenix Suns, because of the pending Bradley Beal-Chris Paul trade.

  • We only went back as far as 2013, as we figured a 10-year sample was enough for these purposes.

  • All the data is courtesy of the amazing executive records on Basketball Reference. For example, here’s Sam Presti of the Seattle SuperSonics and Oklahoma City Thunder’s long and extensive transaction record. (If you think that just an excuse to include the Seattle SuperSonics, you would be correct!)

With all those notes called out, here is our GM list and the month and year they started in their current position:

  • Landry Fields – Atlanta Hawks – December, 2022

  • Brad Stevens – Boston Celtics – June, 2021

  • Sean Marks – Brooklyn Nets – February, 2016

  • Mitch Kupchak – Charlotte Hornets – April, 2018

  • Arturas Karnisovas – Chicago Bulls – April, 2020

  • Koby Altman – Cleveland Cavaliers – June, 2017

  • Nico Harrison – Dallas Mavericks – June, 2021

  • Calvin Booth – Denver Nuggets – May, 2022

  • Troy Weaver – Detroit Pistons – June, 2020

  • Mike Dunleavy Jr. – Golden State Warriors – June, 2023

  • Rafael Stone – Houston Rockets – October, 2020

  • Kevin Pritchard – Indiana Pacers – May, 2017

  • Lawrence Frank – LA Clippers – August, 2017

  • Rob Pelinka – Los Angeles Lakers – April, 2019

  • Zach Kleiman – Memphis Grizzlies – April, 2019

  • Pat Riley – Miami Heat – September, 1995

  • Jon Horst – Milwaukee Bucks – June, 2017

  • Tim Connelly – Minnesota Timberwolves – May, 2022

  • David Griffin – New Orleans Pelicans – April, 2019

  • Leon Rose – New York Knicks – March, 2020

  • Sam Presti – Oklahoma City Thunder – June, 2007

  • Jeff Weltman – Orlando Magic – May, 2017

  • Daryl Morey – Philadelphia 76ers – November, 2020

  • James Jones – Phoenix Suns – October, 2018

  • Joe Cronin – Portland Trail Blazers – December, 2021

  • Monte McNair – Sacramento Kings – October, 2020

  • Brian Wright – San Antonio Spurs – July, 2019

  • Masai Ujiri – Toronto Raptors – May, 2013

  • Danny Ainge – Utah Jazz – December, 2021

  • Michael Winger – Washington Wizards – May, 2023

Most Common Trade Partners

Of our 30 GM set (really 29 because Mike Dunleavy Jr. hasn’t swung his first deal yet), there were 12 teams that have hooked up with another team (under their current GM) for at least three trades. The GMs and teams that have been trade partners the most are:

  • Sean Marks (Nets) and Kevin Pritchard (Pacers) – 4 times

  • Kevin Pritchard (Pacers) and Jon Horst (Bucks) – 4 times

  • Leon Rose (Knicks) and Sam Presti (Thunder) – 4 times

  • Brad Stevens (Celtics) and Brian Wright (Spurs) – 3 times

  • Mitch Kupchak (Hornets) and Leon Rose (Knicks) – 3 times

  • Troy Weaver (Pistons) and Leon Rose (Knicks) – 3 times

  • Kevin Pritchard (Pacers) and James Jones (Suns) – 3 times

  • Rob Pelinka (Lakers) and Jeff Weltman (Magic) – 3 times

Some commonalities that group shares are length of time in role. Marks, Pritchard, Horst, Presti and Weltman have all been in their role since at least 2017. That helps with building relationships across the league with a lot of the other GMs. Kupchak, and Jones have held their spots since 2018. Only Rose, Stevens, Wright, Weaver and Pelinka have been running their front offices for less than five years, but they’ve all been around the NBA in other capacities for years.

You probably noticed that Pritchard and Rose showed up three different times. They clearly like doing business with the same partners. As a matter of fact, of Pritchard’s 24 trades, nearly half have been done with the combination of the Nets, Bucks and Suns. In Rose’s three-plus years leading the Knicks, he’s done 17 trades and 10 of them have been with the combination of the Thunder, Hornets and Pistons.

Probably not surprisingly due to tenure in their role, the GMs with the most deals made within their current peer group are:

  • Sam Presti – 27 total trades with 18 different teams

  • Sean Marks – 25 total trades with 15 different teams

  • Kevin Pritchard – 24 total trades with 13 different teams

  • Lawrence Frank – 22 total trades with 16 different teams

A handful of GMs have done relatively few deals within their current peer group. Most have been in their current role for two or fewer years, with a few notable exceptions:

  • Arturas Karnisovas – five total trades with five different teams

  • Daryl Morey – eight total trades with seven different teams

  • Masai Ujiri – eight total trades with six different teams

Now, it’s fair to point out that some GMs who have had led several different teams, probably have wider-ranging common trade partners from previous roles. And those who were assistant general managers have also built relationships across the league, especially since a lot of the actual trade talks start with the assistant GMs.

This wasn’t meant to be a be-all, end-all analysis. The idea was to see if there is anything to the idea of GMs linking up with the same peers for multiple trades. Considering 12 GMs have gone back to the same well at least three times, it’s fair to say it’s a theory that holds water.

So, when you hear a rumor that the Pacers and Nets or Pacers and Bucks or Knicks and Thunder are talking trade together, it’s probably fair to put a bit more stock in something getting done.

However, it’s also important to note that the list of common trade partners also includes some front offices that are notoriously leak-proof. Which is likely a big part of why they keep finding their way back to each other to get deals done. They know they won’t be negotiating through the media, because they can trust their partner on the other side.

 

Keith SmithJune 18, 2023

Only a few days after it was reported the Washington Wizards would work with Bradley Beal on finding a trade, the team found one. Washington is sending Beal to the Phoenix Suns for Chris Paul, Landry Shamet and still-to-be-reported collection of second-round picks and pick swaps.

Let’s break down the first major move of the 2023 NBA offseason!

(NOTE: This article will be updated if the deal expands into a three-team trade sending Chris Paul to a team other than Washington.)

The Mechanics

From a salary cap, trade rules and salary-matching perspective, this is a fascinating trade. This trade is presumably being made as a part of the 2022-23 league year, which means the salaries used on both sides are more complex than your standard deal.

On one side, the Wizards are trading one of the largest salaries in the NBA in Bradley Beal’s $43,279,250 contract for the 2022-23 season. On the Suns side, Landry Shamet’s $9,250,000 deal is also a simple one.

It’s Chris Paul, and the nature of his partially guaranteed contract for 2023-24 season, where things get complicated. Because Paul’s deal is only partially guaranteed, he counts at different amounts as outgoing and incoming salary in a trade.

On the Wizards side as incoming money, Paul counts at his 2022-23 salary of $28.4 million, because we’re still in that league year. On the Suns side, Phoenix needs to bump his guarantee amount for next season to make this trade legal. At the current $15.8 million, the Suns would have been about $12 million shy of matching salary for Beal. Because of that, Paul’s guarantee will be bumped to just over $25 million. That will allow for the outgoing salary-matching to be enough to bring in Beal.

For Beal, he has a 15% trade bonus in his contract that no longer applies. Because that bonus would take him over his max salary, it will be automatically waived. On the flip side, Beal’s no-trade clause (the only negotiated NTC in the NBA), will carry over to the Suns and remain intact.

As for the draft picks, the Suns have all of their own second-round selections from 2023 (it’s pick #52) through 2028 (they owe 2029 to the Oklahoma City Thunder). Phoenix can also offer Washington the ability to swap first-round picks in 2024 and 2026. The Suns can’t trade a first-round pick, as they owe their 2023, 2025, 2027 and 2029 picks to the Brooklyn Nets from the Kevin Durant trade. The Stepien Rule prohibits teams from trading away future first-round picks in consecutive drafts, blocking Phoenix from adding anything beyond pick swaps into this deal.

The Suns

If we focus simply on the basketball factors, the Suns did quite well in this trade. Bradley Beal is very, very good. He’s one of the best scorers in the NBA. He’s also a better playmaker than he generally gets credit for. There isn’t a team in the NBA that can match the scoring/shooting trio of Beal alongside Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.

The fit isn’t perfect. All three players are score-first guys who can also pass. It’s going to take a little while to iron that out. What helps is Durant has played with other good scorers and shooters for his entire career. Booker has played with Durant some, but also alongside a ball dominant point guard in Chris Paul. They both know how to work off-ball, as does Beal, who spent his formative NBA years playing alongside John Wall in Washington, and also with Russell Westbrook for a season.

All three of Durant, Booker and Beal can shoot, which also helps. In other recent “Big 3” groupings, there has historically been one player who isn’t much of a threat without the ball. That won’t be a problem with this trio.

Assuming everything gets ironed out on the court, where things go could go sideways on the Suns is with depth, injuries and the cap sheet. And all three are tangled together like a Gordian knot. But there’s no case of swordsmanship to solve this problem.

Barring further adjustments to this deal, Phoenix only has five players under contract. Durant, Booker and Beal are joined by Deandre Ayton and Cameron Payne as signed for next season. And that quintet combines to make $169.4 million. That’s a scant $10.1 million below the projected Super Tax of $179.5 million, with 10 roster spots to fill.

That means that Phoenix is going to be closer to the actual Sun than they are to the Super Tax line when all is said and done.

Even if the Suns break up Ayton’s $32.5 million deal into two or three contracts and players, they’ll still likely take back as much money as they send out, if not more. And they’ll need to sign at least nine players if they don’t trade Ayton in a 1-for-3 kind of deal.

Because they won’t have the Taxpayer MLE, by virtue of being over the Super Tax, and they don’t have a first-round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Phoenix will be limited to re-signing their own players and adding new players on minimum deals.

In effect, this is the first “new team” test of the new CBA and it’s going to play out live in front of us.

Because of their limited ability to bring in outside help, it could make it more likely that Phoenix will re-sign their own free agents like Torrey Craig, Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale, who they have Early Bird rights for. That allows the Suns to give each of them a potentially bigger-than-expected bump in pay. As long as James Jones doesn’t go too far in raises for those three, he could turn them into valuable pieces of salary-matching for future trades down the line.

Phoenix has full Bird rights on pending restricted Darius Bazley, and he could also see a contract that comes in a bit richer than it was thought. Again, the idea would be to push the boundaries of what keeps Bazley a tradable asset in such a re-signing.

The Suns other free agents are all coming off minimum deals, but guys like Damion Lee, Josh Okogie, T.J. Warren and Terrence Ross can all still play. All could be candidates to return for the minimum. The same is true of Ishmail Wainright, who Phoenix has a team option for.

As for outside help, barring an Ayton trade, it’s going to come in the form of veteran minimum deals. But with plenty of rotation spots available and a chance to contend for a title, the Suns should be able to pick off a few value signings to fill out their bench. This will likely happen after the first wave or two of free agency passes, all the cap space is gone and teams are left with parts of Mid-Level and Room Exceptions to offer. At that point, a veteran minimum deal from a contender in Phoenix looks pretty good.

And that depth is going to be needed, because none of Durant, Booker or Beal has a sterling track record when it comes to health. All are a good bet to miss a decent chunk of time. Without quality backups, injuries could be this team’s ultimate Achilles heel.

Long-term, the Suns have a lot of money locked in. As a matter of fact, it’s nearly ¾ of a billion dollars (billion with a B) in guaranteed money on the Phoenix cap sheet through 2027-28. The Suns will owe Deandre Ayton, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant over $723 million combined.

That’s a staggering figure. Yes, the cap is going up, but the Suns will be dealing with the Super Tax for at least the next three to four seasons.

Bradley Beal is a better player than Chris Paul, even factoring in injury history. The fit is a little weird, but the Suns should be able to make it work. And they better, given the roster restrictions and cash commitment they’ve put on themselves for the next few years.

The Wizards

Washington’s part in all of this is far less complex than Phoenix’s is. The Wizards essentially salary-dumped Bradley Beal less than a year after handing him a five-year, $251 million dollar contract.

Chris Paul is still a good player, but he’s never going to suit up for Washington. He’ll either be traded in an expanded version of this deal, or traded in a separate deal, or waived. Landry Shamet is a fine role player, but who knows if he’ll ever play any sort of meaningful role for the Wizards? He could be flipped in a trade too.

The draft picks are nothing to write home about. Swaps only matter if you think you’ll be a better team in the years you hold the swaps. Maybe that happens here, maybe it doesn’t. It’s a good way off. Second-rounder picks have more value in this new Super Tax world, but only if you’re a super expensive team.

And there’s the key.

The Wizards are no longer going to be super expensive. At least not for a while.

Washington’s new front office, led by Michael Winger and Will Dawkins, was very open that they were given permission by team governor Ted Leonsis to rebuild, if they thought that was the best way forward. After years and years of being content to play for the middle, the Wizards are finally rebuilding.

The most long-term money that Washington has committed moving forward belongs to Daniel Gafford, who is owed just over $40 million through 2025-26. That’s relative peanuts for a starting-level center.

Kyle Kuzma is going to opt out for next season, and he’s probably leaving town, given where the Wizards are heading. Kristaps Porzingis may opt in for $36 million, as there are reports he may want that money now and to take his chances in free agency next summer. Even if Washington can’t find a deal for Porzingis, and they should be able to without much worry (Porzingis played at an All-Star level last year and stayed healthy), his deal will come off the books next season.

If they play their cards right, Washington can hit the summer of 2024 with somewhere between $26 and $40 million in committed salary on their books. That would leave the Wizards able to create between $75 and $90 million in potential cap space.

Talk about increased flexibility.

Now, cap space often turns into nothing more than broken dreams. But to even have the ability to have those cap space induced dreams is a win for the Wizards.

Every four to eight years we get told that our nation’s capital is ushering in a fresh start. For the past decade-plus, that’s never included the team that plays in Washington D.C. It’s always been same old, same old. We finally got that fresh start. And it’s going to be exciting to see what that fresh start brings for the Washington Wizards.

Keith SmithJune 14, 2023

A handful of players got a jump on “option season” already. Danuel House Jr. of the Philadelphia 76ers and Otto Porter Jr. of the Toronto Raptors exercised their player options to return to their teams well ahead of their due dates. Fred VanVleet of the Raptors chose to decline his player option a few days ahead of his player option due date.

As a point of order, a player or team option isn’t really declined. It’s simply not exercised. A player must exercise, or opt in, to his option year, while a team must take the same action when they have control. The lone exception here is an Early Termination Option. For an ETO, a player must decline or opt out. No action would result in that player staying under contract.

With three decisions already made, we’re going to take a shot at predicting what happens with the remaining 40 player and team options.

Atlanta Hawks

No pending options

Boston Celtics

Danilo Gallinari - $6.8M player option

Gallinari is coming off a torn ACL that cost him the entirety of the 2022-23 season. He’s going to pick up this option and will hopefully debut for Boston this coming fall.

Mike Muscala - $3.5M team option

The Celtics are likely to pick up their option for Muscala and bring him back next season. They invested two second-round picks in a trade for him at the 2022 trade deadline. He’ll be back to provide depth up front in Boston.

Brooklyn Nets

No pending options

Charlotte Hornets

No pending options

Chicago Bulls

Andre Drummond - $3.4M player option

Drummond will reportedly pick his option up. That makes sense, as this is a bit more than he’d make on veteran minimum deal in free agency. He could also have a bigger role with Chicago, pending what happens with Nikola Vucevic.

Derrick Jones Jr. - $3.4M player option

Jones is in roughly the same boat as Drummond, and he’ll also reportedly pick up his option. Considering he’d probably get a veteran minimum deal elsewhere, picking up his option gets Jones a bit more money now.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Lamar Stevens - $1.9M team option

This one is a real decision. Stevens showed he can be an NBA rotation player next year, so the Cavs would love to keep him around. If they pick up their option, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent in 2024. There’s probably not enough of a worry to necessitate handing restricted free agency now. Stevens will be back on his minimum deal.

Dallas Mavericks

No pending options

Denver Nuggets

Bruce Brown - $6.8M player option

Brown is going to opt out. The real question: Will he stay in Denver? Following the Nuggets winning the title, Brown said he wants to stay. The challenge is Denver can only offer him $7.8 million using his Non-Bird rights. This could be a Bobby Portis in Milwaukee type of situation. Play one more year on an under-market deal, then the Nuggets take care of Brown with Early Bird rights in the summer of 2024.

Detroit Pistons

Alec Burks - $10.5M team option

The Pistons didn’t trade Burks at the deadline, because they valued his veteran game with their young team. It’s hard to imagine much has changed. Look for Detroit to pick up their option for Burks and for him to be a part of things…at least until next trade season.

Isaiah Livers - $1.8M team option

Livers has shown enough flashes that he should be back for the minimum. Detroit will pick this option up and Livers will get another chance to earn a rotation spot this summer and in camp.

Eugene Omoruyi - $1.9M team option

Omoruyi can play, but the Pistons will probably decline his option. That doesn’t mean he might not be back, but for now the roster spot and the cap space are more important for Detroit.

Golden State Warriors

Donte DiVincenzo - $4.7M player option

DiVincenzo got squeezed a bit in free agency, but made the most of it. He bounced back to have a very good year. The Warriors won’t be able to offer him much of a raise if he opts out, but DiVincenzo will probably test the market and see if there’s more out there for him this summer.

Draymond Green - $27.6M player option

Green is widely expected to opt out. The question is if he’ll re-sign with the Warriors or not. The best guess here is that Green opts out and re-signs on a long-term deal, but one that allows Golden State some flexibility at the end.

Houston Rockets

Kenyon Martin Jr. - $1.9M team option

 This one depends on what the Rockets overall free agency plans are. If they are continuing with the rebuild, they probably decline Martin’s option. That would allow them to control the process in restricted free agency, as they work out a long-term deal with Martin. If Houston is chasing veterans with their cap space, they should pick up Martin’s option as a cheaper depth player. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent in 2024 that way, but that’s a risk worth taking if using cap space on win-now players this summer.

Indiana Pacers

No pending options

LA Clippers

No pending options

Los Angeles Lakers

Malik Beasley - $16.5M team option

Beasley never really found a groove with the Lakers, but he’s still a good shooter/scorer off the bench. Los Angeles looks increasingly less likely to go the cap space route, which means they’ll pick up this option for Beasley. He can be a rotation guy next season and, if nothing else, a nice piece of salary-matching in a later trade.

Memphis Grizzlies

Xavier Tillman Sr. - $1.9M team option

This is another situation where declining the option makes the player a restricted free agent, while picking it up makes him unrestricted a year from now. Tillman is probably never going to be a primary target in free agency, so there’s no need worry about controlling his free agent process. Memphis should pick this option up and keep Tillman for frontcourt depth.

Miami Heat

Victor Oladipo - $9.5M player option

Oladipo will pick this option up. There was a point where that would have been just fine with the Heat. Then Oladipo suffered another serious knee injury. Now, that’s some money Miami will have to work around on their books in what looks like a very important summer of re-signings and other moves.

Milwaukee Bucks

Jevon Carter - $2.2M player option

Carter will likely opt out of this deal, as it’s less than he could make by signing for the veteran minimum. Carter could find more than that from a guard-needy team in free agency. At the very least, he can re-sign with the Bucks for the minimum and do this dance again next summer.

Khris Middleton - $40.4M player option

On one hand, $40.4M is a lot for Middleton to opt out of. This is even more true with the news that he underwent another knee surgery shortly after the season. On the other hand, Middleton is one of the better free agents available this summer. He’ll opt out and recoup this money by signing for less next season, but by adding several years on a new deal. The question: Will that be with the Bucks or someone else?

Minnesota Timberwolves

Nathan Knight - $1.9M team option

Knight is a handy depth piece, and not someone other teams will target in free agency. Much like Xavier Tillman Sr. in Memphis, the Wolves would be smart to pick up their option and worry about unrestricted free agency later.

New Orleans Pelicans

Willy Hernangomez - $2.6M team option

The Pelicans value Hernangomez as a stay-ready center option and as a locker room influence. New Orleans has no realistic shot at cap space, so there’s no reason to not bring back Hernangomez.

Herb Jones - $1.8M team option

Jones is in a bit of a weird spot. He’s worth WAY more than a minimum deal, as an All-Defense level of player. But the Pelicans don’t have to give him that right now. Given how expensive New Orleans’ roster already is, and the fact that Jones can still be a restricted free agent in 2024, look for the Pels to pick up this option and have Jones as one of the best values in the NBA next season.

Naji Marshall - $1.9M team option

Marshall is in a bit of a different spot than Jones. He’ll be unrestricted next summer if New Orleans picks up their option for him this year. He’s improved each year, so exposing him to unrestricted free agency is a bit of a risk. Look for the Pelicans to decline the option, make Marshall a restricted free agent this summer and then to work out a longer deal.

New York Knicks

Josh Hart - $12.9M player option

Hart has one of the NBA’s most unique contracts, in that he can opt in, but his deal then becomes fully non-guaranteed. It’s like an MLB mutual option. But that doesn’t really matter, as Hart has said he plans to opt out. That makes sense, as he’ll get more money and more years on a new deal.

Miles McBride - $1.8M team option

The Knicks will pick up this option for McBride and will bring him back for minimum money. He’s a good third point guard and he’s a value play for a roster that is starting to get expensive.

Derrick Rose - $15.6M team option

Luxury tax concerns will drive the decision to decline Rose’s option for New York. The Knicks are dancing around the tax line, and that’s before re-signing Hart, which they intend to do. That means Rose’s option will be declined. But he could always re-sign for far less money as a free agent, if New York thinks he has anything left.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Lindy Waters III - $1.9M team option

What the Thunder do with Waters’ team option will be a signal for their free agency plans. If they decline it, OKC is probably looking at using their cap space to sign or trade for someone. If they pick it up, they’ll let Waters go into training camp to fight for a spot on a roster that will add Chet Holmgren and another player through the draft.

Orlando Magic

Goga Bitadze - $2.1M team option

The Magic are looking at creating a good amount of cap space. They like Bitadze, but to maximize that space, they need to let him go. He could always return later in free agency.

Michael Carter-Williams - $3.1M team option

It was great to see Carter-Williams make his way back to the NBA after an ankle injury. Orlando might bring him back to compete for a roster spot in training camp, but that will come after declining this option.

Admiral Schofield - $1.9M team option

Schofield earned his callup from a two-way deal, but it may be somewhat short-lived. Again, because of cap space being a priority, Schofield will likely have his option declined. Like Bitadze and Carter-Williams, he could be back to fight for a roster spot in training camp.

Philadelphia 76ers

James Harden - $35.6M player option

Here we go again, but in very different circumstances. Harden pulled a bit of a surprise by opting out and taking less last summer to allow Philadelphia to sign some free agents. This time around, he’s going to opt out to get a max deal. Whether that comes from the Sixers or another team (Houston Rockets?) remains to be seen.

Montrezl Harrell - $2.7M player option

Harrell didn’t see much run for the 76ers. If he wants a bigger role, he’ll probably opt out and move on in free agency. Harrell would also make slightly more in actual salary by signing a new minimum deal with another team.

Phoenix Suns

Ishmail Wainright - $1.9M team option 

Wainright has been better than expected for the Suns. He’s a willing defender, and willing shooter. Unfortunately, he’s not much of a shot-maker. This is truly a 50-50 decision, as Phoenix needs depth and Wainright is at least an NBA-level guy. But the guess here is the Suns decline and take the roster spot for a veteran on the minimum.

Portland Trail Blazers

Kevin Knox - $3M team option

The Blazers won’t pick up Knox’s option. Either they are conserving wiggle room around the tax to put win-now players around Damian Lillard. Or Portland is rebuilding and won’t want the extra money for a non-rotation guy on the books.

Sacramento Kings

Kessler Edwards - $1.8M team option

Edwards will get caught up in which direction the Kings go. They can reasonably create over $21 million in cap space. That could be enough to be a player in free agency. If they plan to re-sign Harrison Barnes and stay over the cap, Edwards’ option probably gets picked up. We’re projecting the latter here.

San Antonio Spurs

No pending options

Toronto Raptors

Gary Trent Jr. - $18.6M player option

Trent is going to opt out and hit free agency as one of the best 3&D options available. He’s a great fit for any of the cap space teams, so look for him to cash in. Toronto could pivot towards a reset, if not rebuild, so Trent may not be a part of their plans either.

Utah Jazz

Jordan Clarkson - $14.3M player option

Clarkson is going to opt out, but that doesn’t mean his time in Utah is over. The Jazz like Clarkson quite a bit, and he enjoys being there. This would be about adding more years to his deal, as he begins his age-31 season.

Rudy Gay - $6.5M player option

Gay is going to pick up his option. He wouldn’t sniff as much money in free agency. Once he opts in, look for Utah to potentially have Gay in a trade package, as they continue rebuilding the roster.

Talen Horton-Tucker - $11M player option

Horton-Tucker could possibly get more by opting out, but it’s not a lock. He’s shown he can play a rotation role, but money is going to dry up quickly, especially for guys who are best in a combo-guard role off the bench. Look for Horton-Tucker to opt in and try to cash in next summer.

Damian Jones - $2.6M player option

Jones will opt in, because he’s a minimum salary guy either way. Might as well take the guaranteed money by opting in. Like Gay, he could be a part of trade packages for Utah.

Washington Wizards

Kyle Kuzma - $13M player option

Kuzma has far outplayed this contract, so he’ll opt out. With the Wizards possibly rebuilding, he’s probably moving on. That’s not a bad thing for Kuzma though, as he’ll be a highly sought-after player as a scoring combo-forward.

Kristaps Porzingis - $36M player option

This one is weird. Had Washington not moved to a new front office, Porzingis probably would have opted out and signed a long-term deal with the Wizards. The buzz now is that Porzingis may opt in and take the guaranteed big salary. At that point, it’s up the Wizards new decision-makers to trade him or not.

 

Keith SmithJune 05, 2023

The 2020 NBA Draft class is eligible to sign Rookie Scale contract extensions this offseason. Each player has until late-October to agree to an extension. If no agreement is reached, the player will be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2024. A handful of players are ineligible to sign an extension, because they had team options declined or were waived at some point during their rookie scale contract.

By pick from that 2020 Draft, here’s where things stand for each player. We’ll make a prediction on what happens before the late-October extension deadline.

For reference: The standard maximum extension (25% of the cap) these players can sign projects to be $207,350,000 over five years. The Designated Rookie Extension amount (30% of the cap) projects to be $248,820,000 over five years. We’re projecting this off a salary cap of $143 million for the 2024-25 season.

In order to qualify for the Designated Rookie Extension, a player must make All-NBA this coming season, or they can also qualify by winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year this coming season.

#1 Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves

Edwards has blossomed into exactly the kind of star you hope to draft first overall. He’s a scoring machine, an improving rebounder and playmaker and he’s getting more efficient. The Wolves are going to have to no choice but to give him a max extension. It’s also likely Edwards will get the Designated Rookie language that could bump him to 30% of the cap too.

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $248,820,000, no options

#2 James Wiseman, Detroit Pistons

Wiseman finally found his footing in Detroit after two injury-plagued and inconsistent seasons with the Golden State Warriors. The offensive talent is evident, but the defense needs a lot of work. Given the Pistons also have Jalen Duren at the center spot, this battle royale will extend until next summer. 

Prediction: No extension

#3 LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets 

Ball is the Hornets best player. He’s easily the best thing the woebegone franchise has going for them. He’s an All-Star talent and the kind of guy other players want to play with. Charlotte can’t mess this up by getting cheap. Full max, with the Designated Rookie language should be the play here.

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $248,820,000, no options

#4 Patrick Williams, Chicago Bulls

Williams has become one of the most underrated players from this class. He’s a good shooter, has shown improvement every season and he’s been durable in two of his three seasons. The Bulls roster and cap sheet are in a bit of a weird place, but they can’t let Williams leave because of that. The new CBA allowing for non-max rookie scale extensions to cover five years could come into play here.

Prediction: Five years, $100,000,000, no options 

#5 Isaac Okoro, Cleveland Cavaliers

Okoro showed real improvement in his third season, and yet it seems like the Cavs still did everything they could to try and replace him with worse-fitting options. Cleveland also has an increasing payroll and Okoro is probably more of a two than a three, and the backcourt spots are spoken for. That seems like a sign that no extension is coming.

Prediction: No extension

#6 Onyeka Okongwu, Atlanta Hawks

Normally, we’d say the Hawks should lock up Okongwu. But this team has so much long-term salary already committed for a middle-of-the-pack roster. Because of that, Atlanta may need to rebalance the roster a bit before taking care of Okongwu. That means this probably goes to restricted free agency in 2024.

Prediction: No extension

#7 Killian Hayes, Detroit Pistons

An extension for Hayes would have to be so incredibly team-friendly that he’s best to bet on himself putting it all together ahead of restricted free agency in 2024. The good news? There are some signs. Just not enough to get an extension.

Prediction: No extension

#8 Obi Toppin, New York Knicks

Toppin’s career has been spent as a low-minutes backup behind Julius Randle. There’s very much still a mystery box quality to his game. He’s flashed when given time, but those flashes aren’t extension-worthy…unless he’s traded ahead of the extension deadline. 

Prediction: No extension, unless he’s traded. Then, 4 years, $70,000,000 - seems like a worthy gamble as an upside bet.

#9 Deni Avdija, Washington Wizards

If Avdija could shoot, he’d be a lock for at least an $80 million extension. But he can’t shoot and doesn’t seem to be improving in that phase of the game either. The Wizards have a complicated summer with some key free agents and a new front office making the decisions. They’ll delay this one until restricted free agency in 2024. 

Prediction: No extension.

#10 Jalen Smith, Indiana Pacers 

Smith had his third- and fourth-year options declined by the Phoenix Suns. He was traded to Indiana during the 2021-22 season. Smith then signed a three-year, $15.1 million with the Pacers in the summer of 2022.

#11 Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs

Vassell suffered through an injury-plagued third season, but he improved nearly across the board. The Spurs locked up Keldon Johnson to a value deal last summer and will look to do the same with Vassell. This is another one where the five-year allowance for non-max deals in the CBA could be big.

Prediction: Five years, $115,000,000, no options 

#12 Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers

Haliburton is a bona fide star. He’s the Pacers franchise player. He’s every bit as good as LaMelo Ball as young, star point guards. That’ll get him paid, and probably on a deal that includes Designated Rookie language too.

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to Five years, $248,820,000, no options

#13 Kira Lewis Jr., New Orleans Pelicans

Lewis has suffered through injuries in his first three seasons and has only appeared in 103 regular season games for the Pels. That’s not enough to extend him, and the guard rotation is pretty stuffed in New Orleans too.

Prediction: No extension

#14 Aaron Nesmith, Indiana Pacers

Nesmith turned in his first healthy season and he played well for the Pacers. He showed some signs of becoming that knockdown shooter he was supposed to be coming out of college. But the Pacers are going to commit big money to Tyrese Haliburton, after extending Myles Turner last summer. And they’ll probably spend some dough in free agency too. That doesn’t leave room to extend Nesmith. 

Prediction: No extension

#15 Cole Anthony, Orlando Magic

Anthony has adapted well to the third-guard role for the Magic. He was solid coming off the bench. But that caps how much you can pay him, especially in a backcourt that features some other talented players too. Unless it’s a team-friendly deal, Orlando probably lets this carry over to the summer of 2024. That could benefit Anthony too, as his market could expand. 

Prediction: No extension

#16 Isaiah Stewart, Detroit Pistons

The Pistons frontcourt is crowded. Isaiah Stewart might be the best of the young bunch, but he probably also has the least upside. His best role seems like it’ll be as an energy big for 20-25 minutes a night on a good team. That’s not something you generally extend a guy for, unless it’s team-friendly. Stewart is better off betting on himself. 

Prediction: No extension

#17 Aleksej Pokusevski, Oklahoma City Thunder 

Pokusevski was figuring this out in his third season and making real progress. Then a fracture in his leg sidelined him for a large chunk of the second half of the season. There won’t be an extension, because the big man will have to show he’s part of the long-term future this upcoming season.

Prediction: No extension

#18 Josh Green, Dallas Mavericks 

Green started to show some stuff during his second season. In his third year, Green became the Mavs best all-around wing. This is probably going to be a value extension that might catch some off guard.

Prediction: Four years, $70,000,000

#19 Saddiq Bey, Atlanta Hawks 

Bey is in a weird spot. The Hawks have a very full roster and a lot of long-term salary on the books. Bey also plays the same position as De’Andre Hunter (already extended) and Jalen Johnson (a year behind on his rookie deal). That probably takes an extension off the board. But re-signing Bey in restricted free agency, depending on how the roster ultimately shakes out, should be on the table. 

Prediction: No extension

#20 Precious Achiuwa, Toronto Raptors

Had Achiuwa’s three-point shooting stayed level, he’d have been a really good extension candidate. But it fell way off, and the Raptors are a team in transition. They’ll probably hold off on signing Achiuwa until they pick a direction with the roster. 

Prediction: No extension

#21 Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers

Maxey has become one of the best scoring guards in the league and he’s done it quickly. He can score both on- and off-ball, which is huge for lineup versatility. He’s easily worth the 25% max, given where the Sixers roster is at and where the cap is heading.

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options

#22 Zeke Nnaji, Denver Nuggets 

Nnaji is a good player, but he hasn’t been able to keep a rotation role with the Nuggets. He’ll probably have another chance, as the Nuggets backup bigs will cycle this summer. But that’s not enough to get him extended.

Prediction: No extension.

#23 Leandro Bolmaro, out of the NBA 

Bolmaro is out of the NBA after two non-descript seasons. He returned to Spain after a midseason waiver from the Utah Jazz. Bolmaro also signed a year late, so he would haven’t been extension-eligible anyway.

#24 R.J. Hampton, Detroit Pistons 

Hampton was waived by the Orlando Magic before finishing the season with the Pistons. He’s got a non-guaranteed contract for next season with Detroit. Hampton also had his fourth-year option declined, which would have rendered him unable to extend, had he stayed with Orlando.

#25 Immanuel Quickley, New York Knicks

Quickley is a really fun player. He’s a scoring machine and a solid defender. He’d probably start for a handful of teams around the NBA. The challenge with the Knicks is that starting him and Jalen Brunson would be a tiny backcourt. That keeps Quickley in a bench role, and that limits his upside contract-wise. But the Knicks would do well to get him signed long-term. Something bridging his current role with his potential makes sense, as New York loves to add incentives into their contracts. 

Prediction: Four years, $84,000,000 with incentives that could bring it up to $90,000,000, no options

#26 Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics 

Pritchard can play, but he got squeezed out in a deep Boston backcourt. He won’t extend unless it’s an overpay, because Pritchard wants to play. And the Celtics aren’t in a spot of overpay anyone, given where their salaries are headed.

Prediction: No extension

#27 Udoka Azubuike, Utah Jazz

Azubuike had his fourth-year team option declined by the Jazz. Given the presence of Walker Kessler on the roster, it’s likely Azubuike will be playing elsewhere next season.

#28 Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves 

McDaniels is very, very good. He’s arguably the best defender of this entire draft class. And he’s a much-improved offensive player. He’s also an ideal big wing to pair with Anthony Edwards long-term. That’s going to get him paid and paid healthily.

Prediction: Four years, $100,000,000, no options

#29 Malachi Flynn, Toronto Raptors

Flynn has had multiple opportunities to take the Raptors backup point guard spot, but injuries and ineffectiveness have kept it from happening. There won’t be an extension here. 

Prediction: No extension

#30 Desmond Bane, Memphis Grizzlies

Bane is the best shooter in his class. He’s also improved greatly as a playmaker and he’s a solid defender. The Grizzlies are very proactive about locking up their own players. Bane is going to be the next one to get paid and he’s probably going to get a max deal too. 

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options

2019 Draft Class

Chuma Okeke, Orlando Magic

Okeke signed a year late, after being drafted while recovering from a torn ACL. Thus, he’s extension-eligible this summer. The challenge is that Okeke has really slipped from what was a productive rookie season. He hasn’t shot well, and the rest of his game hasn’t developed much either.

Prediction: No extension

Keith SmithMay 11, 2023

The NBA announced the All-NBA teams for the 2022-23 season on Wednesday. As always, it’s an honor for any player to be named All-NBA. For a handful of players, the honor (or lack thereof for one) had some major contractual implications too.

(Please Note: All contracts referenced here are estimates/projections. The NBA salary cap is in a bit of an unpredictable place with both a new CBA in place and a new media rights deal coming soon.)

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown being named to his first All-NBA team (he was on the Second Team) earned him a nice immediate bonus, while being a boon to his long-term earning potential as well.

For this season, Brown getting named All-NBA maxed out his somewhat complex bonus set. Brown’s incentives are broken up into two parts. The first part is related to his games played and team success. Brown had already achieved the maximum of just over $1 million for that section.

The second part of Brown’s incentives are an either/or scenario of postseason awards and team success. None of them can stack upon one another, but he had different paths to earning the full bonus amount. Brown had already achieved a portion of this second incentive by making the All-Star team, but he got 100% of this section by being named All-NBA. This earned Brown about $2.1 million in additional incentives.

Added together, Brown earned roughly $3.1 million in total bonuses for this season. That sees his salary number rise from $26.7 million to $29.8 million for this past year. In addition, Brown’s cap hit for the 2023-24 season will now be at $31.8 million, as his bonuses are now deemed likely. (A bonus is deemed “likely” or “unlikely” based on the simple formula of “Did it happen last year?” If the bonus was achieved, it’s likely. If not, it’s unlikely.)

While congratulations are in order for Jaylen Brown for the All-NBA nod and the extra $3.1 million earned, there are now bigger fish to fry.

As we covered previously, Brown had major stakes for his next contract by making All-NBA. We won’t rehash that entire article, but by being named All-NBA, Brown is now eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, or the so-called Super Max. That contract projects to look like this:

    • 2024-25: $50,050,000
    • 2025-26: $54,054,000
    • 2026-27: $58,058,000
    • 2027-28: $62,062,000
    • 2028-29: $66,066,000
    • Total: five years, $290,290,000

Boston is now eligible to offer Brown a deal starting at 35% of the salary cap vs 30% of the cap, by virtue of the All-NBA honor. That deal would come with 8% raises, and would likely include some form of player option on the final season.

It’s important to note that this deal would start with the 2024-25 season, as Brown still has one more season under contract with the Celtics. Should Brown turn down the Designated Veteran Extension (or in the unlikely scenario Boston doesn’t offer it), he can sign a four-year deal with another team in the summer of 2024. That contract projects to look like this:

    • 2024-25: $42,900,000
    • 2025-26: $45,045,000
    • 2026-27: $47,190,000
    • 2027-28: $49,335,000
    • Total: four years, $184,470,000

That’s a pretty significant difference, even if you compare four-year to four-year values. That’s about $40 million over the same four-year period.

One last note (and this will come up with another player!): Brown can only get the Super Max from the Celtics. You can only offer a Super Max extension to a player you drafted or a player that you acquired while they were on their rookie deal. In addition, if Brown signs a Designated Veteran Extension, he’d have a one-year trade restriction from the date of signing.

Jayson Tatum

We’re going to keep this one simple, as Jayson Tatum still has at least two years left on the rookie scale extension he signed with the Celtics a couple of years ago. That means he’s not extension-eligible until the summer of 2024 and that extension would then start with the 2025-26 season.

Because he’s now made All-NBA the last two years, Tatum is already eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension. One of the criteria is to make All-NBA for two of the previous three seasons (or the one season prior), meaning Tatum has met that marker, no matter what happens in the 2023-24 season.

Tatum’s projected Super Max extension looks like this:

  • 2025-26: $53,198,250
  • 2026-27: $57,454,110
  • 2027-28: $61,709,970
  • 2028-29: $65,965,830
  • 2029-30: $70,221,690
  • Total: five years, $308,549,850

That’s 35% of the cap with 8% raises. Like with Brown, the final season would likely be a player option. In addition, to sign this full five-year extension, Tatum would need to first decline his current player option for the 2025-26 season.

Ja Morant

This past summer, Ja Morant signed a Designated Rookie Extension, or so-called Rose Rule extension. (It’s a bit more complicated than that, but the terms have become used interchangeably.) That contract could have seen Morant jump from 25% of the cap to the 30% of the cap tier, had he been named All-NBA.

As Morant didn’t make any of the three All-NBA teams, he’ll now stay at the 25% of the cap tier. That contract projects to look like this:

    • 2023-24: $33,500,000
    • 2024-25: $36,180,000
    • 2025-26: $38,860,000
    • 2026-27: $41,540,000
    • 2027-28: $44,220,000
    • Total: five years, $194,300,000

Had Morant made All-NBA, his deal would have jumped to $233.2 million over five years.

For what’s it worth, Darius Garland and Zion Williamson both had similar conditions in their deals. However, neither had a realistic chance of being named All-NBA for this past season. Interestingly enough, none of Morant, Garland or Williamson have a player option on the final seasons of their max extensions with Memphis, Cleveland and New Orleans, respectively.

Domantas Sabonis

Like Jaylen Brown, being named All-NBA was quite profitable for Domantas Sabonis. He had already earned $1.3 million by being an All-Star this past season, and he added an additional $1.3 million by making All-NBA.

For this current season, that sees Sabonis’ salary jump from his base of $18.5 million to $21.1 million. For next season, as both of his bonuses are now considered likely, Sabonis’ cap hit will go from $19.4 million to $22 million.

Unfortunately, unlike Brown and Jayson Tatum, Sabonis is not eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension. Because the Sacramento Kings acquired Sabonis while he was on his second (current) contract, they can’t offer him a Super Max extension. Those are reserved for players drafted by or acquired by the team while still on their rookie contracts.

Scott AllenMay 10, 2023

ALL-NBA FIRST TEAM

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo was in the second year of a five year $228.2 million Designated Player extension that he signed with Milwaukee in Dec 2020. His 2022-23 base salary was $42,492,492, which ranked 8th in the NBA.

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $45,640,084
  • 2024-25: $48,787,676
  • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (Player Option)

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic was in the first year of this five year $215.2 million Designated Rookie extension that he signed with Dallas in Aug 2021. His 2022-23 base salary was $37,096,500, which ranked 16th in the NBA.

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $40,064,220
  • 2024-25: $43,031,940
  • 2025-26: $45,999,660
  • 2026-27: $48,967,380 (Player Option)
  • Contract contains 15% Trade Bonus

Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid was in the last year of a five year $147.7 million Designated Rookie extension that he signed with Philadelphia in Oct 2017. His 2022-23 base salary was $33,616,770, which ranked 2nd in the NBA. Embiid signed a four year $210 million Designated Player extension Aug 2021, which will begin with the 2023-24 season.

Remaining Base Salaries (estimates based on $134 million cap): 

  • 2023-24: $46,900,000
  • 2024-25: $50,652,000
  • 2025-26: $54,404,000
  • 2026-27: $58,156,000 (Player Option)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was in the first year of a five year $179.3 million Designated Rookie extension that he signed with Oklahoma City in Aug 2021. His 2022-23 base salary was $30,913,750, which ranked 33rd in the NBA. 

Remaining Base Salaries

  • 2023-24: $33,386,850
  • 2024-25: $35,859,950
  • 2025-26: $38,333,050
  • 2026-27: $40,806,150
  • Contract contains 15% Trade Bonus

Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum was in the second year of a five year $163 million Designated Rookie extension that he signed with Boston in Nov 2020. His 2022-23 base salary was $30,351,780, which ranked 35th in the NBA. Tatum is now eligible for the Super-Max extension (estimated 5 year, $318M), due to back-to-back All-NBA awards, which he can sign beginning with the 2024-25 offseason but the salaries would begin in the 2025-26 season.

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $32,600,060
  • 2024-25: $34,848,340
  • 2025-26: $37,096,620 (Player Option)

 

ALL-NBA SECOND TEAM

Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

Jaylen Brown was in the third year of a four year $106.3 million Rookie Scale extension that he signed with Boston in Oct 2019. His 2022-23 base salary was $26,669,643, which ranked 44th in the NBA. Brown is now eligible for the Super-Max extension (estimated at 5 years, $294+ million) which he can sign this offseason but the salaries would begin in the 2024-25 season.

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $28,508,929

Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler was in the last year of a four year $140.79 million contract that he signed with Miami in Jul 2019. His 2022-23 base salary was $37,653,300 (a Player Option that was exercised), which ranked 11th in the NBA. Butler signed a 3 year $146.4 million contract extension with Miami in Nov 2021.

Remaining Base Salaries (estimates): 

  • 2023-24: $45,183,960
  • 2024-25: $48,798,677
  • 2025-26: $52,413,394 (Player Option)

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry was in the last year of a five year $215.35 million maximum extension that he signed with Golden State in Jul 2017. His 2022-23 base salary was $48,070,014, which ranked 1st in the NBA. 

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $51,915,615
  • 2024-25: $55,761,216
  • 2025-26: $59,606,817

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic was in the first year of a four year $147.7 million maximum contract that he signed with Denver in Jul 2018. His 2022-23 base salary was $32,478,838, which ranked 2nd in the NBA. Jokic signed a 5 year $272 million Designated Player extension in Jul 2022. 

Remaining Base Salaries (estimates based on $134 million cap): 

  • 2023-24: $46,900,000
  • 2024-25: $50,652,000
  • 2025-26: $54,404,000
  • 2026-27: $58,156,000
  • 2027-28: $61,908,000 (Player Option)
  • Contract contains 15% Trade Bonus

Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers

Donovan Mitchell was in the second year of a five year $163 million Designated Rookie extension that he signed with Utah in Nov 2020; he was traded to Cleveland on Sep 3, 2022. His 2022-23 base salary was $30,351,780, which ranked 35th in the NBA. 

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $32,600,060
  • 2024-25: $34,848,340
  • 2025-26: $37,096,620 (Player Option)

 

ALL-NBA THIRD TEAM

De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings

De’Aaron Fox was in the second year of a five year $163 million Designated Rookie extension that he signed with Sacramento in Nov 2020. His 2022-23 base salary was $30,351,780, which ranked 35th in the NBA. 

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $32,600,060
  • 2024-25: $34,848,340
  • 2025-26: $37,096,620

LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron James was in the last year of a two year $85.66 million maximum extension that he signed with Los Angeles in Dec 2020. His 2022-23 base salary was $44,474,988, which ranked 2nd in the NBA. James signed a two year $97.13 million maximum veteran extension in Aug 2022.

Remaining Base Salaries (estimates based on $134 million cap): 

  • 2023-24: $46,900,000
  • 2024-25: $50,652,000 (Player Option)

Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard was in the second year of a four year $176.27 million Designated Player extension that he signed with Portland in Jul 2019. His 2022-23 base salary was $42,492,492, which ranked 8th in the NBA. Lillard signed a two year $121.77 million maximum extension in Jul 2022 which begins with the 2025-26 season and contains a 2026-27 Player Option.

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $45,640,084
  • 2024-25: $48,787,676
  • 2025-26: $58,545,211 (estimated)
  • 2026-27: $63,228,828 (estimated, Player Option)

Julius Randle, New York Knicks

Julius Randle was in the first year of a four year $117.1 million veteran extension that he signed with New York in Aug 2021. His 2022-23 base salary was $23,760,000, which ranked 50th in the NBA. 

Remaining Base Salaries (estimates): 

  • 2023-24: $25,660,800
  • 2024-25: $27,561,600
  • 2025-26: $29,462,400 (Player Option)
  • Contract contains 15% Trade Bonus

Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings

Domantas Sabonis was in the third year of a four year $74.9 million Rookie Scale extension that he signed with Indiana in Oct 2019; he was traded to Sacramento on Feb 8, 2022. His 2022-23 base salary was $18,500,000, which ranked 70th in the NBA. 

Remaining Base Salaries (estimates): 

  • 2023-24: $19,400,000
Scott AllenMay 09, 2023

ALL-DEFENSIVE FIRST TEAM

Alex Caruso, Chicago Bulls

Alex Caruso was in the second year of his four year contract that he signed with Chicago in Aug 2021. His 2022-23 base salary was $9,030,000, which ranked 145th in the NBA.

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $9,460,000
  • 2024-25: $9,890,000 ($3,000,000 guaranteed)

Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

Jrue Holiday was in the second year of his four year $134 million contract extension that he signed with Milwaukee in Apr 2021. His 2022-23 base salary was $32,544,000, which ranked 29th in the NBA. With this award Holiday earns $129,600.

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $34,954,667
  • 2024-25: $37,365,333 (Player Option)

Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies

Jaren Jackson Jr. was in the first year of his four year $104.72 million contract extension that he signed with Memphis in Oct 2021. His 2022-23 base salary was $28,946,605, which ranked 42nd in the NBA. 

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $27,102,202
  • 2024-25: $25,257,798
  • 2025-26: $23,413,395

Brook Lopez, Milwaukee Bucks

Brook Lopez was in the last year of his four year $52 million contract that he signed with Milwaukee in July 2019. His 2022-23 base salary was $13,906,976, which ranked 100th in the NBA. 

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • N/A, Lopez will be an Unrestricted Free Agent

Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers

Evan Mobley was in the second year of his four year $36.66 million Rookie Scale contract that he signed with Cleveland  in Aug 2021. His 2022-23 base salary was $8,478,720, which ranked 157th in the NBA. 

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $8,882,640
  • 2024-25: $11,227,657 (Club Option)

ALL-DEFENSIVE SECOND TEAM

Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo was in the second year of his five year $163 million Designated Rookie Scale extension that he signed with Miami in Nov 2020. His 2022-23 base salary was $30,351,780, which ranked 37th in the NBA.

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $32,600,060
  • 2024-25: $34,848,340
  • 2025-26: $37,096,620

O.G. Anunoby, Toronto Raptors

O.G. Anunoby was in the second year of his four year $72 million contract extension that he signed with Toronto in Dec 2020. His 2022-23 base salary was $17,357,143, which ranked 77th in the NBA.

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $18,642,857
  • 2024-25: $19,928,571 (Player Option)

Dillon Brooks, Memphis Grizzlies

Dillon Books was in the last year of his three year $35 million contract extension that he signed with Memphis in Feb 2020. His 2022-23 base salary was $11,400,000, which ranked 117th in the NBA.

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • N/A, Brooks will be an Unrestricted Free Agent

Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

Draymond Green was in the third year of his four year $99.67 million contract extension that he signed with Golden State in Aug 2019. His 2022-23 base salary was $25,806,469, which ranked 49th in the NBA.

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $27,586,225 (Player Option)

Derrick White, Boston Celtics

Derrick White was in the second year of his four year $70 million Rookie Scale contract extension that he signed with San Antonio in Dec 2020. White was acquired by Boston at the 2021-22 NBA Trade deadline on Feb 10, 2022. His 2022-23 base salary was $16,392,857, which ranked 87th in the NBA. With this award White earns $250,000.

Remaining Base Salaries: 

  • 2023-24: $17,607,143
  • 2024-25: $18,821,429
Scott AllenMay 02, 2023

Joel Embiid received the NBA 2022-23 Most Valuable Player award. 

Embiid was in the last year of his Rookie Scale contract during the 2022-23 season and made $33.6 million, 26th in the NBA, and was the 6th highest paid center. Embiid now enters his Designated Veteran Extension estimated at 4 years $210 million for the 2023-24 season which is based on a $134 million cap.

Remaining Contract:

  • 2023-24: $46,900,000
  • 2024-25: $50,652,000
  • 2025-26: $54,404,000
  • 2026-27: $58,156,000 (Player Option)

Related:

Scott AllenApril 25, 2023

Paolo Banchero received the NBA 2022-23 Rookie of the Year award. 

Banchero signed a 4 year $50.16 million Rookie Scale contract and earned $11.1 million during the 2022-23 season (121st highest in the NBA). He has three years and $39.1 million remaining on his contract with Club Options for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons. 

Remaining Contract:

  • 2023-24: $11,608,080
  • 2024-25: $12,160,800 (Club Option)
  • 2025-26: $15,334,769 (Club Option)

Related:

Scott AllenApril 25, 2023

Lauri Markkanen received the NBA 2022-23 Most Impoved Player of the Year award. He was traded to the Utah Jazz from Cleveland in the Donovan Mitchell traded on September 3, 2022, which has given Markkanen a fresh reset on a roster that he seemed to gel with pretty well from the start. He was a 1st time All-Star and had career highs in multiple stat categories with the Jazz.

Markkanen was in the second year of his 4 year $67.47 million contract and earned $16.48 million during the 2022-23 season (87th highest in the NBA). He has two years and $35.3 million remaining on his current extension and will be extension eligible this offseason as of August 6th.

Remaining Contract:

  • 2023-24: $17,259,999
  • 2024-25: $18,044,544 ($6 million guaranteed)

Related:

Scott AllenApril 17, 2023

Jaren Jackson Jr received the NBA 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year award. He is the second player from the Memphis Grizzlies franchise to win the award; Marc Gasol earned the award the 2012-13 season.

Jackson Jr. began the first year of his of his 4 year $104.7 million Rookie Scale extension this season that he signed on October 18, 2021.  He has the 47th highest AAV at $26.18 million in the NBA this season. He earned $28.9 million for the 2022-23 season (42nd highest), and has $75.77 million over three years remaining on this contract. The contract had no incentives built into it so the Defensive Player of the Year will have no financial bearing on next season's salary.

Remaining Contract:

  • 2023-24: $27,102,202
  • 2024-25: $25,257,798
  • 2026-27:  $23,413,395

Related:

Keith SmithApril 14, 2023

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

ALL-STAR TIER

  1. Brook Lopez – Milwaukee Bucks    UFA

    Lopez is the best of this group because of his two-way impact. Everyone else is either good on offense or defense. Lopez is an elite stretch big, who can still mash in the post. And he's a DPOY candidate. Look for an extension here.

  2. Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls    UFA

    Vucevic is coming off an outstanding season. He's a guaranteed double-double and he's one of the more efficient scoring bigs. Only his age (33 at the start of next season) and his defense keep him from being a near-max guy.

STARTER TIER

  1. Jakob Poeltl – Toronto Raptors    UFA

    Poeltl is an outstanding defender and a better-than-you-think offensive player. Two things keep him from the top tier: His range is measure in inches, as opposed to feet. And some teams can play him off the floor on defense.

  2. Christian Wood – Dallas Mavericks    UFA

    Wood may be the best offensive player of this group. He's an inside-outside threat and he can play stationary or on the move. He's just not a good defender. But he's better than how Dallas used him. A smart team will get a good player.

  3. Mason Plumlee – Los Angeles Clippers    UFA

    This is a test of how much people watch the Hornets. Plumlee was really good for Charlotte. He can finish inside, rebound and he's a pretty good faciliator too. The defense is iffy, but Plumlee is a starting level center on most teams.

  4. Naz Reid – Minnesota Timberwolves    UFA

    Reid hasn't started much, but he's a starter-level guy. It's just hard when you have two All-Star centers on the roster with you. Reid is a pretty good offensive player and he can block some shots and rebound. Potential value signing here.

ROTATION TIER

  1. Dwight Powell – Dallas Mavericks    UFA

    Powell was miscast in a bad Dallas defensive system, but he's not a bad player. He's a good screen setter and a really good finisher at the rim. Everything else is just ok, but those first two skills are near-elite level.

  2. Thomas Bryant – Denver Nuggets    UFA

    This might be sticking too much to priors here, but Thomas Bryant is better than he showed this season. He's sort of Wood-lite, in that he's a great offensive player but doesn't offer a lot on defense. Still, he's a rotation level center.

  3. Andre Drummond – Chicago Bulls    PLAYER

    Drummond is still an elite rebounder, but he doesn't do a whole lot else. His finishing is just ok and his defense is passable as a backup. That's his role now, but he's pretty good in it. You can feel good with Drummond as your backup.

  4. Mike Muscala – Boston Celtics    CLUB

    Muscala has been in a weird spot the last couple of years. OKC didn't play him a ton, because they were prioritizing their kids. Then, Boston acquired him for depth. He's an elite shooting five. Look for Boston to pick up this option.

  5. Drew Eubanks – Portland Trail Blazers    UFA

    It's probably gotten lost in two forgettable Blazers seasons, but Eubanks has become a pretty solid NBA player. He's a good rim protector and rebounder and solid around the rim. Can't ask for much more from a backup five.

  6. Jock Landale – Phoenix Suns    RFA

    Landale's rotation role has come and gone in Phoenix. If he was even a little better defensively, he'd be a solid backup. As it is, you probably need him in a platoon as your backup five with a defensive-minded center like the next guy.

  7. Bismack Biyombo – Phoenix Suns    UFA

    Biyombo very unexpectedly got his career back on track in with the Suns. He's still terrific on defense, and he rebounds. Biyombo doesn't offer much offensive, so the platoon with the above guy works out nicely for Phoenix.

  8. Chimezie Metu – Sacramento Kings    UFA

    Last season, it seemed like Metu was carving out a rotation role for himself. This year, he's fallen off a bit. There's offensive talent there, but Metu doesn’t bring enough defensively to be more than a backup five.

  9. Kevin Love – Miami Heat    UFA

    If this isn't the end of the line for Love, we're really close. His shot has fallen off, and that limits his effectiveness on offense great. Love can still rebound and pass, but his defense isn't even passable anymore. There's just not much left.

  10. Blake Griffin – Boston Celtics    UFA

    Griffin has become a great locker room presense who brings a ton of hustle to the floor. He hits enough shots to make the defense respect him, plus great passing and good positional defense. Does he want to keep going another year?

  11. Xavier Tillman – Memphis Grizzlies    CLUB

    Tillman started to really put things together when he focused on defense and rebounding. On offense, he's learned how to set some really good screens and to roll hard. A good playoff run would bump him up several spots on this list.

  12. Moritz Wagner – Orlando Magic    UFA

    Wagner carved out a rotation role in Orlando, not because his brother is there, but because he earned it. He's a top-tier irritant. Wagner will be in a rotation because he does just enough good stuff, along with annoying opponents.

  13. Paul Reed – Philadelphia 76ers    RFA

    Reed hasn't come along quite as quickly as some in Philadelphia hoped, but he's figuring things out. He can rebound and finish and bang inside on defense. His biggest issue is that he's a foul machine. But he's a rotation big anyway.

  14. Jaxson Hayes – New Orleans Pelicans    RFA

    Hayes failed to live up to his draft status, mostly because he hasn't figured out how to defend in the NBA. The offensive talent is there, but not enough to offset his poor defense. At 23 years old next season, he'll be a nice low-cost flyer.

  15. Omer Yurtseven – Miami Heat    RFA

    After a really promising rookie season, Yurtseven went through a lost year after ankle surgery. But the potential is there. He can really score and he's a pretty good rebounder too. Look for him to get a make-good deal next season.

  16. Cody Zeller – Miami Heat    UFA

    Zeller re-emerged late in the season and showed he's healthy again. He can still finish in pick-and-roll and he's an ok rebounder. Zeller probably gets a backup job somewhere next season.

  17. Orlando Robinson – Miami Heat    RFA

    Robinson looked like the next Heat G League find, but an injury held him back a bit. Still, there's a ton of raw talent here. If Miami lets him go, someone else will stash Robinson on their bench to develop him next season.

  18. Luka Garza – Minnesota Timberwolves    RFA

    Garza is dominant on the G League level. He's basically unguardable. That hasn't fully translated to the NBA level, but Garza has shown flashes of being a good offensive five. Look for someone to give him that role more fully next year.

  19. Montrezl Harrell – Philadelphia 76ers    PLAYER

    Harrell is coming off a lost year with the Sixers. He was a late signing and never made a real impact. Harrell can score, especially as a rim runner and offensive rebounder. But his defense is too poor for minutes on a contender.

FRINGE TIER (UNRANKED AND PRESENTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

  1. Udoka Azubuike – Utah Jazz    UFA

    Between injuries and lack of opportunity, Azubuike remains a bit of an unknown for teams. The Jazz declined their fourth-year rookie scale option, so they may move on. But he can finish and rebound. He'll get another shot in the NBA.

  2. Ibou Badji – Portland Trail Blazers    RFA

    Badji had a left knee injury that cost him the bulk of his season. Yet, the Blazers didn't move on. That tells you Portland sees enough potential in the 7-foot-2 center that he'll probably be back on another two-way deal.

  3. Goga Bitadze – Orlando Magic    CLUB

    Bitadze caught on with the Magic after the Pacers did some trade deadline shuffling. He refocused on his game around the rim and looked pretty good. He'll be in the NBA next season, as someone will sign him as a flyer project.

  4. John Butler – Portland Trail Blazers    RFA

    Butler didn't do much in the NBA or the G League, but he's still an intriguing prospect. He has nice touch for a 7-footer and he's got some rim protection potential. He'll be on a two-way contract with someone.

  5. Willie Cauley-Stein – Houston Rockets    UFA

    Cauley-Stein got a late-season callup with the Rockets after an earlier 10-Day. That was a reward for his work in the G League, where he did a nice job for Houston's affiliate. He could snag an NBA deal, but opportunties are dwindling.

  6. Dewayne Dedmon – Philadelphia 76ers    UFA

    Dedmon looked rough with the Heat, before catching on the Sixers for the stretch run. In his mid-30s, it's pretty close to the end of the line for Dedmon, as he doesn't do enough well to even hold down a regular backup role.

  7. Gorgui Dieng – San Antonio Spurs    UFA

    Dieng is basically in the same boat as Dewayne Dedmon. He just doesn't do enough well in his mid-30s to keep a roster spot. He is a well-liked locker room guy though, so that could see him get another deal.

  8. Taj Gibson – Washington Wizards    UFA

    Gibson was a part-time rotation player for the Wizards this season. His play has fallen off enough that he's probably done. Like some of the other veteran centers, he could be back as an end-of-roster guy for leadership reasons.

  9. Willy Hernangomez – New Orleans Pelicans    CLUB

    Hernangomez always seems to produce when he gets minutes, but then struggles to hold onto those minutes. Mostly, he can rebound and score, but his lack of defense keeps Hernangomez firmly a third center role.

  10. Jay Huff – Washington Wizards    RFA

    Huff was pretty dominant in the G League, as he won their Defensive Player of the Year award. He's got good touch on his jumper too. Huff might be a classic late-bloomer. He deserves a real NBA look next season.

  11. Damian Jones – Utah Jazz    PLAYER

    Jones went from a rotation role with the Lakers to not playing to getting traded for the Jazz. He may pick up his option, unless he sees a way to land somewhere where he could play more next season.

  12. DeAndre Jordan – Denver Nuggets    UFA

    Jordan is pretty close to finished as a viable NBA player. He doesn't move well enough on either end of the floor to bring more than some inside banging and six fouls. It's been one heck of a run for him though.

  13. Frank Kaminsky – Houston Rockets    UFA

    Kaminsky had a couple of strong seasons with the Suns, but then really fell off this year. At his best, he's a good floor-spacer as a center. But defensive shortcomings tend to keep him as only a deep bench option.

  14. Alex Len – Sacramento Kings    UFA

    Len's had a weird season for the Kings. He went from barely playing most of the season to being the backup center as the playoffs approach. If he looks good in the postseason, Len could land himself a minimum deal next season.

  15. Meyers Leonard – Milwaukee Bucks    UFA

    Leonard already won by working his way back to the NBA. He's healthy and working past his off-court issue. He can still shoot and block some shots, so he's a nice backup option for the Bucks behind Brook Lopez for next year.

  16. Robin Lopez – Cleveland Cavaliers    UFA

    Lopez will be back on a roster somewhere, maybe with the Cavs, because he's beloved in the locker room. And he works hard to stay ready when his number is called. The real question: How much longer does he want to play?

  17. Sandro Mamukelashvili – San Antonio Spurs    RFA

    The Spurs did well to claim and convert Mamukelashvili. He played really well for them, and now they can control the free agency process a bit. Look for him to be back in San Antonio for next season on a team-friendly contract.

  18. Boban Marjanovic – Houston Rockets    UFA

    Marjanovic is everyone's favorite teammate. That alone will keep him in the NBA, but he's also someone you can put in for 10-15 minutes when other centers are out and you'll be fine.

  19. Neemias Queta – Sacramento Kings    RFA

    Queta has made no NBA impact, but he's been excellent in the G League. He's a good rim protector and rebounder, and a plus finisher inside. He's got potential, but he may top out as a very good G League center.

  20. Olivier Sarr – Oklahoma City Thunder    RFA

    Sarr is a little bit like Neemias Queta. He's been pretty good in his G League minutes, but hasn't shown much in the NBA. There may be some late-bloomer potential here, but it's starting to get late for that too.

  21. Tristan Thompson – Los Angeles Lakers    UFA

    Thompson was signed on the final day of the regular season, mostly because he's tight with LeBron James. He didn't look great last season, and it's hard to imagine he has much left to offer as he approaches his mid-30s.

 

2023 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Keith SmithApril 11, 2023

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

ALL-STAR TIER

  1. James Harden – Philadelphia 76ers    PLAYER

    Harden is the best available free agent. He's still an All-NBA level guy, even if he's starting to show signs of slipping. You'll get an All-Star level playmaker for at least the next two years, provided you can also afford the latter years.

STARTER TIER

  1. Bruce Brown Jr. – Denver Nuggets    PLAYER

    Brown isn't shooting quite as well as he did with the Nets a season ago, but he's been very good in every other phase of the game. He can start or come off the bench. He's a good defender 1-3 and a good playmaker. All that = paid.

  2. Jordan Clarkson – Utah Jazz    PLAYER

    Clarkson was in the midst of a career-year with the Jazz before getting shut down with an injury. Even as he approaches his early-30s, he should maintain pleny of value as a bench scoring combo guard, which is his ideal role.

  3. Josh Hart – New York Knicks    PLAYER

    Hart has had his best all-around season, even if his scoring is down from than previous years. That's a volume thing, because Hart is shooting, rebounding, passing and defending better than ever. He's a high-value free agent.

  4. Austin Reaves – Los Angeles Lakers    RFA

    Reaves has been a breakout player for the Lakers. He's much more than a shooter, as he can handle, pass and get himself to the line with regularity. He's a very interesting Arenas Provision guy for cap space teams to chase.

  5. Gary Trent Jr. – Toronto Raptors    PLAYER

    Trent's play has slipped a bit, as he's dealt with injuries and a crowded Raptors rotation. At his best, Trent is an elite 3&D wing. He's only 24 years old too, so there should be a lot of good years coming.

  6. Caris LeVert – Cleveland Cavaliers    UFA

    Now that he's not being asked to lead an offense, LeVert has regained some of his efficiency. He's probably best as a high-usage bench player, but that's a role that has value. The Cavs may struggle to replace him if he leaves.

  7. Malik Beasley – Los Angeles Lakers    CLUB

    Over the last two seasons, Beasley has become a three-point specialist. That's not necessarily the worst thing, but Beasley was becoming a pretty good all-around scorer. There's a good chance the Lakers pick up their option.

  8. Alec Burks – Detroit Pistons    CLUB

    Burks had another solid and productive season. The Pistons didn't trade him, so it's likely the Pistons are going to pick up their option. They intend to improve and want to have a veteran like Burks around their young roster.

  9. Donte DiVincenzo – Golden State Warriors    PLAYER

    It's no surprise that on a great offensive team that DiVincenzo is putting up a very efficient season. He's also done a nice job defensively, on the boards and as a passer. The Warriors may struggle to pay him enough to keep him.

  10. Max Strus – Miami Heat    UFA

    Strus looked like he was headed for a big payday after a big year last year, but his shot has fallen off a bit this season. The Heat will be wary after already paying Duncan Robinson. That could put Strus in play for other teams.

  11. Josh Richardson – New Orleans Pelicans    UFA

    Richardson remains a pretty good shooter and scorer. He can also hold his own defensively and do a little bit of playmaking. The Pelicans will probably let him go, but he'll be a nice MLE target for a contender that needs a wing.

ROTATION TIER

  1. Seth Curry – Brooklyn Nets    UFA

    In his early-30s, Curry is still an elite shooter. He doesn't offer much else, but that will get him a nice deal from a contender that needs a guard who can shoot.

  2. Jaylen Nowell – Minnesota Timberwolves    UFA

    After three years of upward momentum, Nowell dropped off this season. He battled injuries and an inconsistent role with the Wolves. Someone may take a flyer and hope they can get him back on track with part of their MLE.

  3. Talen Horton-Tucker – Utah Jazz    PLAYER

    Horton-Tucker tends to get a little overrated because he piles up counting stats. He plays both guard spots and can score, so there's value there. It's likely he'll opt in and play out the year on a retooling Jazz team.

  4. Matisse Thybulle – Portland Trail Blazers    RFA

    If Thybulle could shoot, he'd be far higher on this list. He's the best defender of this group, but his inability to hit shots makes him borderline unplayable when it counts. He did shoot 39% on threes with Portland though…

  5. Victor Oladipo – Miami Heat    PLAYER

    Oladipo has had a weird year. He's looked good at times, and like he's finished at other times. Injuries and age have caught up to Oladipo enough that he'll probably just pick up his option for next season and play it out.

  6. Josh Okogie – Phoenix Suns    UFA

    Okogie has been an outstanding story this season. After his career petered out in Minnesota, he's bounced back with the Suns. He's shot just well enough to complement his defense and that's kept him on the floor this year.

  7. Lonnie Walker IV – Los Angeles Lakers    UFA

    Walker has been a bust of a free agent signing for the Lakers. Enough so, that he fell out of the rotation. But it's not fully clear why. He's been efficient as a scorer. This is probably just a case of being a bad fit for player and team.

  8. Shake Milton – Philadelphia 76ers    UFA

    Milton has seen his role drop off a bit, as the Sixers have used other guards, but he's been very effective. This was his best shooting season since bursting onto the scene in 2019-20. Milton is a good fourth guard off the bench.

  9. Hamidou Diallo – Detroit Pistons    UFA

    Diallo sort of reinvented his game as the Pistons used him like an ultra small-ball big man. That could be a role a contender sees for Diallo moving forward, as he's never developed into the 3&D player many hoped that he would.

  10. Troy Brown Jr. – Los Angeles Lakers    UFA

    Brown has had the best year of his career with the Lakers. He's shot it well and defended enough that's been a regular rotation player all season. Whether that's earned him more than another minimum deal remains to be seen.

  11. Will Barton – Toronto Raptors    UFA

    Whether it's age or no longer having Nikola Jokic setting him up, Barton has fallen way off this season. He struggled with both Washington and Toronto. The track record says he'll get another shot as a bench scorer somewhere.

  12. Terence Davis – Sacramento Kings    UFA

    Davis has had a productive year in a designated-shooter role for the Kings. He may need to shoot it a bit better for that to be his long-term role, but someone will give him a crack at it.

  13. Javonte Green – Chicago Bulls    UFA

    It looked like Green was on the verge of locking in a rotation role with the Bulls before injuries wrecked his season. He's an uber athlete and his shot is coming along. A smart team will snag him and let him play in rotation role.

  14. Justin Holiday – Dallas Mavericks    UFA

    Holiday hasn't been able to find his shot since leaving Indiana. In his mid-30s, his opportunities are going to dry up if he can't find it this coming season.

  15. Damion Lee – Phoenix Suns    UFA

    Lee has had an outstanding shooting season for the Suns. He may be the best pure shooter of this group, non-Seth Curry division. That could get him more than a minimum deal from a team that is desperate for perimeter shooting.

  16. Ty Jerome – Golden State Warriors    UFA

    It's rare for a two-way guy to jump into the rotation tier, but Jerome has proven he deserves to be there. He's a good shooter and a solid secondary playmaker. A bigger role should await him next season.

  17. Romeo Langford – San Antonio Spurs    RFA

    Langford just can't stay healthy. It's been four straight injury-plagued seasons for him now. He'll only turn 24 at the start of the season, so someone will give him another shot. The talent is there if he can shake the injury issues.

  18. Austin Rivers – Minnesota Timberwolves    UFA

    In Year 11, Rivers was again productive. He's a good fourth or fifth guard, because he can play both spots and he's good even if he doesn't get regular minutes. That probably keeps him on a contender's bench next season.

  19. Nickeil Alexander-Walker – Minnesota Timberwolves    RFA

    NAW feels like he's still a major work in progress. The jumper comes and goes, so he's not really a two. The playmaking has never gotten there, so he's not really a one. He still has some upside, but that's starting to wane too.

FRINGE TIER (UNRANKED AND PRESENTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

  1. Buddy Boeheim – Detroit Pistons    RFA

    Boeheim saw very few NBA minutes, even after the Pistons turned towards ping pong balls. His impact in the G League was mostly based around good, but not great shooting. He'll be lucky to get another two-way contract.

  2. David Duke Jr. – Brooklyn Nets    RFA

    Duke was a late converstion by the Nets. He had minimal NBA impact, but was outstanding in the G League. If he shot it better from the outside, Duke would be an NBA rotation player. Until then, he's a two-way guy.

  3. AJ Green – Milwaukee Bucks    RFA

    Green flashed some on- and off-ball skills in both the NBA and the G League. He's an outstanding shooter on spot-ups, on the move or off-the-dribble. Don't be surprised if he lands a standard deal before next season.

  4. Ron Harper Jr. – Toronto Raptors    RFA

    Harper didn't do much in the NBA, but showed off his all-around game in the G League. His shot is a work in progress, but the other skills are there. Harper is a guy someone should invest at least another two-way deal in.

  5. Johnny Juzang – Utah Jazz    RFA

    When the Jazz shut their regulars down late in the season, Juzang finally got some NBA minutes. He did ok, but didn't really build on a nice scoring season in the G League. Another year of seasoning in the minors is in order.

  6. Trevor Keels – New York Knicks    RFA

    Keels got into only three NBA games, and his G League impact was relatively muted too. He'll need to shoot it far better to get an NBA opportunity beyond a two-way deal.

  7. Wesley Matthews – Milwaukee Bucks    UFA

    It's been years of steady decline, but Matthews finally dropped out of being a regular rotation player. His shot is no longer reliable and his defense has fallen off. This might be the end of the line for a former 3&D prototype.

  8. Rodney McGruder – Detroit Pistons    UFA

    McGruder has been a great locker room presence for the Pistons for a few seasons now. He doesn't play much, but when he does he contributes. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him back in Detroit if there's a roster spot for him.

  9. Xavier Moon – Los Angeles Clippers    RFA

    Moon is undersized to be a shooting guard in the NBA. He's shown signs of developing his playmaking game, which could portend a switch to point guard. That would give Moon more value beyond being a solid G League player.

  10. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk – Charlotte Hornets    UFA

    Mykhailiuk can shoot. The problem is that's all he can do. And he doesn't shoot it at quite a high enough level to be a rotation player. Still, he'll probably snag another deal as a designated shooter on the minimum.

  11. Theo Pinson – Dallas Mavericks    UFA

    Pinson has earned his NBA deal by being a beloved teammate. That might keep him on the end of the bench, possibly with the Mavericks. He's perfect as a minimum salary player for the good locker room vibes.

  12. Lester Quinones – Golden State Warriors    RFA

    Quinones made very little NBA impact, but he was outstanding as a rookie in the G League. He'll probably go to training camp with outside chance of a standard roster spot, but a great chance at a two-way contract.

  13. Jared Rhoden – Detroit Pistons    RFA

    Rhodan did fine with a handful of NBA minutes at the end of the regular season. What was more exciting was his shooting in the G League. If that maintains or improves, Rhoden will get a shot at a standard contract next season.

  14. Dru Smith – Brooklyn Nets    RFA

    Smith is undersized to be a two at the NBA level. He showed some flashes as an on-ball playmaker in the G League, which is encouraging. He's probably looking at another two-way deal, an more on-ball reps in the minors.

 

2023 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Michael GinnittiApril 10, 2023

Joel Embiid (-1000)

Embiid appears to have run away with this contest over the course of the past month, though there’s still a viable case to be made for any of these three candidates now that the regular season has come to an end.

Statistically speaking, Embiid wins the scoring title at 33.1 points per game. He finished 7th in rebounds (10.2), 7th in blocks (1.7), & 49th in assists (4.2). He averaged 34.6 minutes in 66 games played this season. When factoring in a few more advanced metrics, he ranked 2nd in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) at 31.4 behind only Jokic (31.5), 3rd in Usage (37%) behind Giannis & Jokic, and 14th in True Shooting Percentage (.655)

Contractually speaking, Embiid has now completed his rookie extension, a deal that paid out $146.8M across the 2018-2022 seasons. His previously agreed to veteran extension will begin next season, and currently projects to $210.1M through the 2026-2027 campaign (assumes a $134M league salary cap next season). The 29-year-old will see salaries of $47M, $50M, $54M, plus a $58M player option over the next four years, pushing him well over the $300M career earnings mark.

 

Nikola Jokic (+1200)

The back-to-back defending MVP probably saw his chances extinguished with a late season calf injury (and a bit of load management) down the stretch, but it doesn’t curtail what amounts to another outstanding season from the 28-year-old.

Statistically speaking, Jokic finished 18th in points per game (24.5), tied for 2nd in total rebounds (11.8), 3rd in assists (9.8), & 20th in steals (1.3). He averaged 33.7 minutes in 69 games played this regular season. In more advanced terms, he led the league in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) for the 3rd straight season at 31.5, led the league in True Shooting Percentage (.701) and was 33rd in Usage (27.2%). Joker was 10th & 21st in Usage in each of his past two MVP seasons, so it’s fair to note that Denver dialed back his touches a bit this year as the Nuggets got a little deeper and healthier as a unit.

Contractually speaking, Jokic has now completed his rookie extension, a deal that paid out $145.8M across 2018-2022. He steps into a projected 5 year, $272M supermax veteran extension (based on a $134M league salary cap next season), that includes salaries of $47M, $50M, $54M, $58M, & a $62M player option through 2027-28. He’ll be 32-years-old when a decision on that option salary must be made.

 

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1200)

The 2018-19 & 2019-20 league MVP likely falls a little short this time around, despite another highly productive year personally, and #1 seed in the East for his Milwaukee Bucks.

Statistically speaking, Giannis finished 5th in scoring at 31.1 points per game, 3rd in rebounds at 11.8, and 26th in assists at 5.7. He averaged 32.1 minutes across 63 regular season games played. In more advanced terms, Giannis finished 3rd in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) at 29.0, behind both Embiid & Jokic, 62nd in True Shooting % (.605), and was afforded the highest Usage Rate in the league at 38.8% - the highest rate since James Harden’s 40.5 for Houston back in 2018-19.

 

Contractually speaking, Giannis is locked up for another 2 years, $94.3M, with a $52M player option built into the 2025-26 campaign, his age 31 season. An extension discussion likely won’t come until the 2024 offseason, when Antetokounmpo will be essentially entering a contract year with Milwaukee. 

 

In the Mix

Jayson Tatum

Scored 30.1 points in nearly 37 minutes across 74 games. Posted career years in points, rebounds assists, 2 point percentage and turnovers. His contract holds 2 years, $67.4M through 2024-25, plus a $37M player option in 2025-2026.

 

Luka Doncic

Was the scoring title runner-up at 32.4 points, finding over 36 minutes of action in 66 games. He was 6th in assists (8.0), and 24th in rebounds (8.6), despite the Mavericks falling apart down the stretch and ultimately missing the postseason. His contract carries 3 years, $129M guaranteed through the 2025-26 season, with a $49M player option in 2026-2027 his age 27 year.

 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Finished 4th in scoring with at 31.4 points per at a 51% field goal percentage rate in 68 regular season games. His free throw percentage also shot over 90% for the first time in his career. He'll enter Year 2 of a 5 year $179M contract, with $148M fully guaranteed through the 2026-27 season (his age 28 year).

 

MVP + Title?

The league MVP has won the title that same season 24 times, or 35% of the time. While this seems a fairly big number, it hasn’t been done since Steph in 2014-15.

Keith SmithApril 08, 2023

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

ALL-STAR TIER

  1. Khris Middleton – Milwaukee Bucks    PLAYER

    Even though he'll be 32 years old before next season, Middleton is one of the best free agents in this class. He can shoot, score, pass and defend. One potential worry is that he's had knee issues two seasons in a row.

STARTER TIER

  1. Kyle Kuzma – Washington Wizards    PLAYER

    Kuzma is coming off a career-year. He signed a team-friendly deal last time, but there will be no such discount this time around. Kuzma will be looking to cash in. The question: Will it be with Washington or elsewhere?

  2. Cameron Johnson – Brooklyn Nets    RFA

    Johnson had a weird season. He got hurt early on, then got traded shortly after getting healthy. But when available, Johnson showed he can do more than be a standstill shooter. He's a big part of the future in Brooklyn.

  3. Dillon Brooks – Memphis Grizzlies    UFA

    Brooks is on of those guys who probably has more value to the Grizzlies than he has around the league as a whole. He's an irrational confidence irritant of the highest order. But he's also a 41% career shooter. That's pretty limiting.

  4. Herbert Jones – New Orleans Pelicans    CLUB

    Jones is already one of the best defenders in the NBA. It's likely the Pelicans will pick up this team option and then let Jones be a restricted free agent in 2024. Whenever he's a free agent, Jones is getting a nice payday.

  5. Jae Crowder – Milwaukee Bucks    UFA

    Crowder sat out until February when the Suns traded him to the Bucks. With Milwaukee, he's been what he is: a 3&D forward. If you believe the shooting will hold up, Crowder is an MLE guy, even though he's 33 years old.

  6. Kelly Oubre Jr. – Charlotte Hornets    UFA

    At this point, as he hits his late-20s, Oubre is an inefficient scorer. There's still room for him as a bench player on a good team, but Oubre's probably a part--of-the-MLE guy vs a whole MLE guy now.

ROTATION TIER

  1. Torrey Craig – Indiana Pacers    UFA

    Craig is coming off his best shooting season, by a pretty good margin. If that's real, he's one of the better 3&D wings available. If you don't believe in the shooting, he's a defense-rotation guy. That's good, but a different scale.

  2. Joe Ingles – Milwaukee Bucks    UFA

    Ingles has had a nice bounce-back season with the Bucks after missing the end of last year with a torn ACL. He can still shoot and pass, but the defense isn't what it once was. Also: Does Ingles want to play an age-36 season?

  3. Lamar Stevens – Cleveland Cavaliers    CLUB

    Stevens has improved in his third year, but he was unable to keep a starting role. Most of that is because Stevens doesn't shoot well enough. If he shot better, he'd be higher on this list. As it is, he's a flyer as a free agent.

  4. Naji Marshall – New Orleans Pelicans    CLUB

    Marshall is a combo forward, and that has value. If he shot better, Marshall would have even more value. As it is, the Pelicans might just pick up their option and then deal with unrestricted free agency for Marshall in 2024.

  5. Yuta Watanabe – Brooklyn Nets    UFA

    Watanabe is thought of as all energy, but there's more there. As Watanabe has upped his three-point volume to two attempts per game, he's hit 40.6%. That shooting and the ability to play both forward spots is huge.

  6. T.J. Warren – Phoenix Suns    UFA

    Warren was putting together a nice comeback season for the Nets, but hasn't played as much for the Suns. The outside shot has been shaky for Warren, but he's only 30. He'll get another shot to prove himself as a bench piece.

  7. Otto Porter Jr. – Toronto Raptors    PLAYER

    It was a completely lost season for Porter, as he played in only eight games due to a foot injury. He'll likely pick up his player option and try to find a place in a crowded Raptors forward group next season. 
    Updated 4/24/23: Porter Jr. exercised Player Option. He will no longer be a 2023 free agent.

  8. Cam Reddish – Portland Trail Blazers    RFA

    Reddish was unable to take advantage when given starting opportunities with both the Knicks and Blazers. His career has been a series of fits and starts. Reddish is probably a flyer on a one-year deal to see if you make it work.

  9. Ishmail Wainright – Phoenix Suns    CLUB

    Wainright is a fun success story. He's made himself into an NBA player because he defends 2-4 and he's not afraid to shoot. The challenge is that he's also 28 years old. That probably has him in the minimum deal territory.

  10. Isaiah Livers – Detroit Pistons    CLUB

    Livers has shown enough potential throughout two injury-plagued seasons that Detroit will like pick up their option and see where he fits in on a retooled roster next season.

  11. Kessler Edwards – Sacramento Kings    CLUB

    Edwards has had a weird first two years in the NBA. He played a lot as a rookie, didn't play much with the Nets this year and then became a rotation guy for the Kings. There's a good chance Sacramento brings him back next year.

  12. Terrence Ross – Phoenix Suns    UFA

    Ross can still shoot. But that's about all he does as he starts the early-30s portion of his career. But he shoots it well enough that a contender will bring him in on a minimum deal next season.

  13. Juan Toscano-Anderson – Utah Jazz    UFA

    Toscano-Anderson looked like he was going to be a rotation forward on a good team when he was with the Warriors. Unfortunately, JTA is also turning 30. There's not much potential left there, but he's better than he showed this year.

  14. Anthony Lamb – Golden State Warriors    RFA

    Lamb shot it well enough this season, along with some good defense that he got converted to a standard contract. With a big playoff run, Lamb could become an interesting restricted free agent.

FRINGE TIER (UNRANKED AND PRESENTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

  1. Kendall Brown – Indiana Pacers    RFA

    Unfortunately, Brown had a serious leg injury early in his rookie season. He'll probably get another shot on a Two-Way deal somewhere next season.

  2. Jamal Cain – Miami Heat    RFA

    Cain flashed some 3&D combo forward potential in the G League. He's a good bet to return to the Heat as a developmental prospect for next season.

  3. Julian Champagnie – San Antonio Spurs    RFA

    Champagnie showed he can score at the G League level, and he can probably defend enough to stick around the NBA level. It's likely Champagnie is competing for a roster spot, likely via a Two-Way deal, over the summer.

  4. Darius Days – Houston Rockets    RFA

    Days didn't get much of an opportunity in the NBA, but he shined in the G League. 22 points per game on decent shooting splits and nine rebounds shows he can play. Days will get an NBA look this summer.

  5. Keon Ellis – Sacramento Kings    RFA

    In the G League, Ellis showed he can be a 3&D player. The question is if he can do that on the NBA level. Look for Ellis to get another opportunity this summer and into training camp to stick on the NBA.

  6. Danny Green – Cleveland Cavaliers    UFA

    Green made an admirable comeback off a torn ACL suffered late last season. However, he's had very little impact with either the Grizzlies or Cavaliers. It might be the end of the road for one of the original 3&D wings.

  7. Danuel House Jr. – Philadelphia 76ers    PLAYER

    House has been in and out of the rotation with the 76ers this season. Given he has a $4.3 million player option, House will probably pick that up. Then it's up to the Sixers if he's back in Philadelphia or not next season.

  8. Louis King – Philadelphia 76ers    RFA

    King looks a 4A player: too good for the minors, but not good enough for the majors. He can do a little bit of everything, but hasn't put it all together at the NBA level. King will probably hit camp to fight for a spot next season.

  9. Kevin Knox – Portland Trail Blazers    CLUB

    Knox never really built on a promising rookie season. He's had his best shooting year this season, so maybe Knox is a late-bloomer. Portland will likely decline their option, but Knox will get another shot somewhere.

  10. Justin Lewis – Chicago Bulls    RFA

    Lewis missed his rookie season after tearing his ACL over the summer. The Bulls brought him in to get a firsthand look at his recovery. Lewis will probably be on a Two-Way deal next season, likely with Chicago.

  11. Eugene Omoruyi – Detroit Pistons    CLUB

    Omoruyi got caught in a numbers game on the Thunder roster, but he can play. The Pistons have given him an opportunity to play a lot and Omoruyi has done well. Look for him to be back after Detroit uses their cap space in July.

  12. Matt Ryan – Minnesota Timberwolves    RFA

    Ryan can really shoot it, but he doesn't do a lot else. The shooting will probably get him another Two-Way opportunity somewhere, but there's not much upside here.

  13. Admiral Schofield – Orlando Magic    CLUB

    Schofield is a rugged defender, but he hasn't shown enough else at the NBA level. If he shot it better, and he has taken some steps forward this season, Schofield could develop into a 3&D forward.

  14. Terry Taylor – Chicago Bulls    RFA

    Taylor is a unique player, as he plays far bigger than his actual size. He loves to mix it up inside. Unfortunately, the lack of a reliable jumper limits his upside as an NBA player.

  15. Lindy Waters III – Oklahoma City Thunder    CLUB

    Waters has shown some shooting ability, but he'll probably get caught up in a roster crunch in Oklahoma City. Someone will give him a shot to fill an end-of-the-bench role, or possibly another Two-Way deal.

  16. Jack White – Denver Nuggets    RFA

    White looked good in the G League. He showed inside-outside scoring ability and did a nice job on the boards. He'll be 26 years old heading into next season, so the potential is limited, but White can play.

  17. Dylan Windler – Cleveland Cavaliers    RFA

    Windler has suffered through four injury-plagued seasons in the NBA. In limited G League games, Windler has shown he can still shoot. But he'll be 27 years old going into next season. It's make-or-break time for Windler.

 

2023 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Keith SmithApril 03, 2023

Updated: 4/3/23 @ 2:45pm

More “Super Tax” Penalties

What Is It:

There are going to be even more penalties on teams that exceed what we’re going to now call the “Super Tax”, which is the second tax apron at $17.5 million above the luxury tax line. These penalties include: not being able to send cash out in trade, restrictions on when they can trade first-round picks, not being able to sign players on the buyout market and not being able to take on salary in trades.

Analysis:

The league is doing what they can to curb the spending of the most expensive teams. We already covered some of the potentially unintended consequences, but here’s another set to consider.

If you can’t add salary via a trade, will we see a $20 million player given a $30 million, simply so a team could trade him for a $25 million player? That’s one way to start working around it. It’s not necessarily a bad thing, because the player benefits. But it could be a workaround for teams. And NBA teams are really good at figuring out workarounds with the cap and CBA.

Players are allowed to invest in NBA and WNBA teams, as well as partner with gambling and cannabis companies.

What Is It:

This one is pretty straight forward. Or, it seems to be, at least. Players will be able to become more partners with teams, as opposed to contract employees. And players will be able to branch out and become partners with business that were previously prohibited.

Analysis:

Investing in the NBA and WNBA is a great idea. If you’re invested, you’re likely to do more to grow your product and your team. That should be a rising tide lifts all boats scenario.

Partnering with gambling companies is a little more of a slippery slope. If it’s simply “Hey! I’m Player X! Do your betting with Company Y!” then it’s fine. If it becomes “Hey! I’m Player X! Bet on me to score over 20 points tonight!” then things could get really messy. When we have full details, it seems likely we’ll find out it’s more like the former than the latter.

We didn’t touch on it previously, so we will here…marijuana is no longer a prohibited substance in the new CBA. With where things are headed, as more and more of the country legalizes marijuana use, that makes sense. And if it’s not a prohibited substance, why can’t a player endorse it? This is common sense in action.

Revenue from licensing will be added to the Basketball Related Income (BRI) calculation

What Is It:

Previously, any money the NBA itself or NBA teams made from licensing agreements went directly to the owners. The players will now get a share of that, through the BRI process.

Analysis:

This seems like a no-brainer. The NBA and its teams have no value without the players. If you’re going to license your logos or team names to be used somewhere, the players should get a cut of that.

Second Round Pick Signing Exception

What Is It:

Teams will now have an exception to sign their second-round picks. In today’s world, if a team wants to sign a player selected in the second round to more than the two-year, minimum salary deal allowed by the minimum exception, they have limited ways to do so. They can give the player come of their cap space, if they are a room team. Or they can carve out a portion of their Mid-Level Exception to sign the player. Now, they’ll be able to sign their second-round picks to deals without having to give up cap space or part of their MLE.

Analysis:

This is a good change. As much as we’ve all enjoyed picking on the Los Angeles Lakers for bungling this time and time again, this will help everyone. Teams are helped because they can use their full MLE, or full cap space, to sign veterans, while also still signing second-round players. Veteran players don’t lose out on a chunk of money, because teams had to conserve that space to sign second-round players.

Unanswered questions: Is this one exception per team per season? Is this allowable for any second-round pick, without restrictions? Can you still use cap space or a different exception to give the player even more salary or a longer deal? Those will all get answered when we have the actual CBA.

10% Cap Smoothing

What Is It:

In order to avoid another cap spike like in 2016, when the cap went from $70 million to $94.1 million, the NBA will smooth those increases. This is likely to matter most in 2025, when the first season with the new media rights deals will begin.

Analysis:

This is a good thing. Now that the NBA and NBPA have a better working relationship, they can trust that no one will get cheated out of money. A cap spike ends up disproportionately impacting that one year’s free agent class. They benefit greatly, while following free agent classes are often less with less money, because everyone capped out the year prior.

Smoothing in this increase will allow for fewer massive contracts that immediately turn sour. And it will spread the wealth amongst several free agent classes.

Elimination of Designated Player Roster Restrictions

What Is It:

Under the current CBA, teams are limited in how many Designated Players they can have on their roster at a given time. Currently, teams are limited to two Designated Rookie Scale Extension players and two Designated Veteran Players. In addition, team could only have one Designated Player that they acquired via trade. These restrictions are being eliminated moving forward.

Analysis:

As with a lot of these changes, things are being set up to allow teams greater flexibility in retaining their own players. This change is another good one. Simply because you hit on three, or more, draft picks over a period of time, you shouldn’t be punished for wanting to re-sign all of them for the most you can. This removes that, while still putting in the “Super Tax” caveats that restrict team building, should your team get too expensive.

MLE and Room Exception to increase in size

What Is It:

The Non-Taxpayer MLE is expected to increase by 7.5%, while the Room Exception is expected to increase by 30%. It’s expected that these increases are on top of how much these exceptions will have increased in correlation with how much the cap increases.

Analysis:

This is another good change, as these exceptions will become even more valuable tools for those non-taxpaying teams. One unanswered question: Is this a one-time releveling, and then things will go back to the standard increase with as the cap increases? Or will this be phased in over a period of time?

Teams will be able to use signing exceptions as trade exceptions

What Is It:

In today’s world, a team can only use their MLE to sign a player to a contract. The only way to acquire a player via trade is to match salary in a deal, or to acquire them using a Traded Player Exception (TPE)

Analysis:

This is also a good change. It allows teams increased flexibility in how they can build their rosters. Anything that allows for more ways to build a roster is for the better.

Luxury Tax bands/brackets will increase and expand

What Is It:

Currently, the luxury tax bands run from $1 dollar over the tax to $5 million then to $10 million to $15 million and $20 million. Those bands were set at a time when the salary cap was roughly $58 million. The cap and tax lines have doubled, but the bands have remained the same.

Analysis:

Another good change. Adding $5 million to your team salary was essentially one signing. That was often true with $10 million. That could mean jumping one or two bands by adding just one player. The penalties for adding even that relatively small amount of salary were out of balance with the actual impact. This change was long overdue, as the bands were outdated and needed changing. As with a lot of other items, we don’t yet have the details to what the new bands will be, and how they will be phased in over a period of time.

This is also a nice balancer for those “Super Tax” teams. They’re already restricted as to how they can build their roster, hitting them with even more of a tax penalty feels overly punitive at this point.

Players who attend Draft Combine must undergo physicals that will be shared with teams

What Is It:

Currently, most top draft prospects attend the NBA Draft Combine. Very few of them work out at the combine, but are instead there to interview with teams. Some also will do physicals and medical reviews, but that’s something a player can opt out of, and many do. Now, players who attend the combine will be required to do a physical. Those results then will be shared with teams, based on that player’s draft projection.

Analysis:

This is good, but not good enough. Drafting a player in the NBA is a hope that you are entering into a relationship that will last for more than a decade. For many teams, a “bad” medical or no medical at all, will take that player off that team’s draft board. There’s simply too much risk involved. This is helping to change that

Why is this change not good enough? For one, whose projections are being used with which teams to share physical information with? Why not just share it with all teams? This is especially true considering teams can trade up.

Another concern is that this could simply cause players to skip the combine entirely. They can then control the draft process, at least as much as possible, by only meeting with, working out for and having a physical done by certain teams.

Restricted Free Agency changes

What Is It:

Qualifying offers will reportedly increase by 10%, while the time a team has to match an offer sheet will decrease from 48 hours to 24 hours.

Analysis:

This is another good set of changes. The 10% increase in qualifying offer amount could make that enticing enough that a player who doesn’t like his contract proposal from his incumbent team might opt for the one-year deal via the qualifying offer. This is opposed to simply sitting in restricted free agency, while money and jobs dry up around the league. It gives players another reasonable option to control their future contracts.

The decrease from 48 hours to 24 hours is just common sense. With today’s technology, teams can be notified of a signed offer sheet within moments of it being signed. And teams generally know if they are going to match or not, long before any offer sheet comes.

Non-max Rookie Scale Extensions allowed to have fifth season

What Is It:

In the current NBA CBA, extensions to rookie scale contracts are only allowed to be for five years, if the player is receiving a Designated Rookie Extension, or he's signing under the so-called Rose Rule. In both of those cases, the player is also getting a maximum contract extension. In the new CBA, teams and players will be able to sign a five-year extension that is for less than the max.

Analysis:

This is a sensible change. Sometimes teams and players are a perfect match, even if that doesn't mean they should sign a max contract. Allowing players to sign for the maximum possible length, while signing for say $15 million or so in AAV, is a smart change by both sides. Players can still sign shorter deals, or negotiate for player options, if they want a deal that could run four years or less in length.
 
 

Original Post: 4/1/23 @ 10:30am

The NBA and NBPA have reached an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement. This agreement came after both sides agreed to push back their mutual opt-out deadline several times. In the end, in the early morning hours of April 1, the NBA will continue a long run of labor peace.

The agreement will carry through the next seven seasons, from 2023-24 through 2029-30. Once again, both sides hold mutual opt-outs after the sixth season of the agreement.

As it’s still early in the process, details on the new agreement are still being filtered out. Here’s what we know so far:

In-Season Tournament

What it is: 

Adam Silver’s long-wanted in-season tournament will be added, possibly as soon as next season. All NBA teams will take part in the tournament, with pool play and early-round games in the season’s opening months doubling as regular season games. The final four teams will meet at a neutral site to crown the champion.

Analysis: 

The in-season tournament was coming, like it or not. Teams will initially prioritize it as much as they do any regular season game. Over time, it’s likely that winning the tournament will become a thing. If you put a trophy in front of competitive people, they want to win it.

Oh, and a $500,000 per player prize is pretty good too. No, the max players won’t really care all that much. But for the guys on a minimum deal, that’s a pretty nice bonus. That’ll make the stars want to win it, as much as claiming the trophy or the prize money for themselves.

Load Management Provisions

What it is: 

In order for players to eligible for major postseason awards, such as MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and All-NBA, they will have to appear in at least 65 games. There are to-be-announced conditions where a player could miss more than 17 games and remain eligible for awards.

Analysis:

A 65-game threshold is roughly 79% of the schedule. That feels like a reasonable and, more importantly, attainable marker. With most teams now playing between 12 and 16 back-to-back games per season, this still allows for resting players on the nights they are most likely to miss anyway.

Does this solve everything? No. But given that players want the individual recognition of the awards (and for some, the financial benefits that come along with it!), and teams promote players for individual awards, this should get the main guys on the court at least a little more often.

A potential downside is that teams could start a player, and then simply sub that player out at the earliest opportunity. That makes a farce of the entire thing and it’s something the NBA will not want to see.

Standard Veteran Extension Increase

What is it: 

The standard Veteran Extension salary increase will rise from 120% to 140%.

Analysis: 

Let’s use Jaylen Brown as an example here, since he’s prominently in the news. Under the current CBA, Brown would be eligible for a 120% raise. That would make his total extension in the range of four years and $170.5 million.

With a 140% raise, Brown would go up to his maximum salary amount. That would cap him at about $192.2 million over that same four-year period. That’s a fairly impactful amount, even if Brown would probably prefer to see if he makes All-NBA this season or next season and qualifies for the Super Max, which could pay him in excess of $290 million over five years, or $224 million over the same four-year period.

So, for a currently near-max player like Brown, this at least gets him in the territory of what he could sign for in free agency. For a not near-max, breakout player like Domantas Sabonis or Kyle Kuzma, the increase probably still isn’t enough to get them to bite.

This feels like a good fix, but more for vets who are established as non-max players without a ton of contractual upside. They’ll probably get a little more money now.

For the true stars of the NBA, this didn’t go far enough. There’s no real reason to keep a team and player from extending for their max salary when they are eligible to do so. A better solution might have been to say you can offer the current 120% (or maybe even bumped that slightly) or you can offer the player the max. That still leaves agency for both the teams and players to make a real decision.

Second Luxury Tax Apron

What is it: 

The new CBA will see the addition of a second luxury tax apron, set at $17.5 million above the luxury tax line. This new apron will make it so that the league’s most expensive teams will no longer have access to the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. That exception is currently available to any teams that are above the current tax apron (roughly $6 million above the tax line), unless they are hard capped.

Analysis: 

This feels like a bit of a band-aid, but an impactful band-aid nonetheless. It’s not a true “upper spending limit”, which several teams and players were adamantly against. Most seasons, somewhere between four and six teams will be impacted. Since spending is generally not a worry for those teams, that means somewhere between four and six players will likely have to sign a minimum deal, as opposed to the Taxpayer MLE, that will be over $7 million next season.

Those very expensive teams will still be able to add salary via minimum deals and via trades. They’ll have to get a bit more creative in how they build their rosters. It will help keep them from outspending some opponents by hundreds of millions in total salary plus tax penalties.

But some players are going to lose out here. That doesn’t seem great. This is one we’ll have to measure for a few years to get a real understanding of how this impacted teams and players.

Third Two-Way Roster Spot

What is it: 

This one is pretty simple, as there will be a third Two-Way spot added to rosters. Teams can currently sign two players to Two-Way deals for a length of up to two seasons.

Analysis: 

The NBA wants the G League to be a viable minor league system. This increases that, while still giving players flexibility and not locking them into minor league contracts.

By tying up to three players to the NBA club, the Affiliate team is strengthened and that’s good for the overall health of the G League. It’s also a great development opportunity for players and teams. Several players have emerged from Two-Way contracts to become regular NBA rotation players. This includes Jose Alvarado, Alex Caruso, Lu Dort and Austin Reaves.

One downside to this is that it doesn’t appear NBA roster sizes are increasing in the offseason. Teams are allowed to bring up to 20 players to training camp. With 15 players on standard contracts and now up to three on Two-Way deals, that leaves openings for only two camp signings.

In addition, we’ve seen some teams choose to leave roster spots open more often, and for longer periods of time, because they can backfill with their Two-Way players. This could have the unintended (or perhaps intended?) consequence of some players missing out on standard contracts to fill out NBA benches.

No Change To “One-and-Done” Rules

What it is: 

US-born players will still need to be a year removed from their high school graduation in order to be draft eligible. That means players will still need to attend college, or sign with a non-NBA professional team, before entering the NBA Draft.

Analysis: 

Teams didn’t want to have to scout high school players again. That would have added a major increase to staffs and workload across the league. And it would have meant scouting many, many players who have no shot at the NBA.

Players didn’t really want the one-and-done rule changes, because for each extra player you let in the league, that’s one less spot for a veteran. The NBPA was adamant about protecting veteran players and their roster spots. Not allowing players to come in from high school helps to accomplish that.

For the players coming out of high school, the advent of NIL deals being available to them, allows them to begin earning money right away. This is in addition to professional opportunities with the G League Ignite, Overtime Elite and overseas, which have become paths to the NBA for several players in recent years.

What We Don’t Know Yet

There are a lot of items we don’t have details on yet. This includes:

  • Cap smoothing: Will this happen or not? If not, we’ll see another major cap spike when the new media rights deals hit. That’s something both sides were initially eager to avoid.
  • Luxury tax bands: The luxury tax bands, and the related penalties, only rise by $5 million per band now. Were those bands enlarged at all?
  • Extend-and-trade rules: With the standard Veteran Extension rules being adjusted, were the very restrictive extend-and-trade rules changed at all?
  • Trade requests/demands: Was anything done to prevent trade requests or demands? There was a lot of blustering about this being a problem, but was anything done to try to fix it?
  • Changes to rosters: Are there more changes beyond the addition of the third Two-Way spot?
  • Expansion details: Was anything changed as far as expansion goes? It seems like expansion is inevitable, perhaps in the life of this new CBA.

(This post will be updated as more details are known about the new CBA.)

Keith SmithMarch 31, 2023

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

ALL-STAR TIER

  1. Kyrie Irving – Dallas Mavericks    UFA

    Irving remains a top-end point guard. He's arguably the best available free agent, regardless of position. But it'll be buyer-beware time, because you know you're instantly on the clock with Irving's happiness level with your team.

  2. Fred VanVleet – Toronto Raptors    PLAYER

    It feels like VanVleet is gong to really test the market. There are already rumors of a handful of teams gearing up to make a run at the veteran. He's an ideal fit anywhere because of his defense and on- and off-ball vesatility.

STARTER TIER

  1. D'Angelo Russell – Los Angeles Lakers    UFA

    Russell has arguably put together his best season, and that's including his All-Star year in 2019. He's shooting better than ever and a solid playmaker. And Russell is only 27 and headed into his prime years.

  2. Patrick Beverley – Chicago Bulls    UFA

    Beverly has had an interesting last few seasons. He helped Minnesota get to the playoffs, then bounced from the Jazz to the Lakers to the Magic to the Bulls. He's aging, but he can still defend and handle a starting role.

  3. Russell Westbrook – Los Angeles Clippers    UFA

    After a couple of messy years with the Lakers, Westbrook bounced back and played really well for the Clippers. He's a tricky fit, but Westbrook has at least another year of starter-level production in him.

ROTATION TIER

  1. Dennis Schröder – Los Angeles Lakers    UFA

    Schroder has adapted well to a bench scoring role. He's one of the better reserve guards in the league at the moment. Schroder can also start when necessary, but teams will view and pay him like a high-end backup.

  2. Gabe Vincent – Miami Heat    UFA

    Vincent hasn't seized the momentum he had a year ago, but he's been good enough to usurp Kyle Lowry as the starter in Miami. Vincent is probably best as a backup, but he's a good one and should be paid as such.

  3. Jevon Carter – Milwaukee Bucks    UFA

    Carter has put together his best all-around season. He remains a pest on defense, while improving his shooting and playmaking. If the Bucks have to keep their tax bill down, someone could get a nice steal with Carter.

  4. Tre Jones – San Antonio Spurs    RFA

    Jones has starter all year for the Spurs, but that's a circumstance thing vs what he really should be. But like brother Tyus, Jones has proven he can be a high-end backup. That's valuable with the Spurs or elsewhere.

  5. Ayo Dosunmu – Chicago Bulls    RFA

    Dosunmu's play has dipped just enough in his second season that he lost his starting role for the Bulls. He's more of a combo guard than a true point guard. That could end up costing Dosunmu some in free agency.

  6. Reggie Jackson – Denver Nuggets    UFA

    In Year 12, Jackson's play has fallen off. He's suffered through a second straight year of iffy shooting. That cost him his role with the Clippers. Jackson is probably a minimum flyer for a playoff contender next season.

  7. Coby White – Chicago Bulls    RFA

    As the Bulls have improved, White has stagnated. Other players have passed him in the rotation and that has his future in flux. He's only 23, so there's some late-bloomer potential here as a combo guard off the bench.

  8. Dennis Smith Jr. – Charlotte Hornets    UFA

    Smith has been one of the best stories in the NBA this season. He got back to the league by focusing on his defense and playmaking. If he shot it better, he'd be far higher on this list. As it is, he's in a great spot for a payday.

  9. Dalano Banton – Toronto Raptors    RFA

    Banton is super intriguing. He's huge for the point guard position and he can generally get where he wants on the floor. The challenge is Banton can't really shoot. And he's struggled with injuries. Call him a low-risk flyer.

  10. Kendrick Nunn – Washington Wizards    UFA

    After two years of solid production in Miami, Nunn's Lakers tenure was ruined by injury. He's sort of gotten back on track with Washington, but Nunn will have to prove himself on a minimum deal all over again.

  11. Cory Joseph – Detroit Pistons    UFA

    Joseph has settled into the phase of his career where he's veteran depth as a third point guard. His ability to shine in that role as a good locker room guy will keep Joseph in the league on a minimum deal.

  12. Ishmael Smith – Denver Nuggets    UFA

    Just when it looked like Smith was slipping into that deep-bench portion of his career, he started playing minutes for the Nuggets down the stretch. The real question: Will next season be Team 14 for Smith or not?

FRINGE TIER (UNRANKED AND PRESENTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

  1. D.J. Augustin – Houston Rockets    UFA

    Augustin was a late-season signing to give the Rockets a grownup in the locker room. Pending how Houston builds out their roster next season, Augustin could be back. Or there's a chance this could be it for him in the NBA.

  2. Jared Butler – Oklahoma City Thunder    RFA

    Butler got himself back into the NBA by shining in the G League. If his shooting could hold around 40% or so from deep, Butler could contend for a roster spot. If not, he's probably a Two-Way or G League guy.

  3. Michael Carter-Williams – Orlando Magic    CLUB

    Finally healthy again, Carter-Williams re-signed with Orlando. He's yet to appear in a game, as of this writing. That makes it hard to know what Carter-Williams has left. He could be back to battle for a spot with the Magic.

  4. J.D. Davison – Boston Celtics    RFA

    Davison has been as expected as a rookie. He's one of the most athletic guards in the league, a good defender, but he can't shoot. On the plus side, Davison has done a nice job a playmaker. Another Two-Way seems ideal.

  5. Matthew Dellavedova – Sacramento Kings    UFA

    Dellavedova was added by the Kings to give them another veteran in the locker room. He's done his thing as a defender and playmaker. He could be back as a bench veteran next season, especially with the Kings success.

  6. Jeff Dowtin – Toronto Raptors    RFA

    Dowtin has had an interesting season. He's been very good in the G League. With a lack of better options, Nick Nurse even turned to Dowtin for minutes late in the regular season. He might get a standard deal next season.

  7. Goran Dragic – Milwaukee Bucks    UFA

    Dragic is winding down his career. He hasn't played much with either the Bulls or Bucks. If he wants to play a 16th season, someone will sign Dragic. If he doesn't, there's no shame in calling a really terrific career.

  8. Trent Forrest – Atlanta Hawks    RFA

    Forrest hasn't played much in the NBA or the G League this season. He has another year of Two-Way eligibility, and he'll probably go to training camp to fight for a roster spot somewhere.

  9. Collin Gillespie – Denver Nuggets    RFA

    Gillespie has missed his entire rookie season with a fractured left leg. He looked very good in Summer League before getting injuried. Look for the Nuggets to bring Gillespie back for a real look next season.

  10. George Hill – Indiana Pacers    UFA

    Like others on this list, Hill is wrapping up a long, productive career. He can probably find another job as a bench vet, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see Hill call it a career.

  11. Aaron Holiday – Atlanta Hawks    UFA

    The shine is off Holiday, as he'll be 27 before next season. But Holiday has shot it well throughout his career. There's something there, but he's probably a minimum guy as a backup or third point guard.

  12. Trevor Hudgins – Houston Rockets    RFA

    Hudgins has played really well in the G League, showing some scoring and shooting ability. His size works against him for an NBA role, but Hudgins has probably earned another Two-Way spot with his solid minor league play.

  13. Saben Lee – Phoenix Suns    RFA

    Lee is too good to be on a Two-Way deal. He should have a spot as a backup in the NBA. Some smart team could get a steal on a minimum deal with Lee.

  14. Theo Maledon – Charlotte Hornets    RFA

    Maledon has been unable to build on his solid rookie season of two years ago. Still, Maledon has shown enough that as he enters his age-22 season, teams will give him another chance as a potential late-bloomer.

  15. Miles McBride – New York Knicks    CLUB

    McBride only plays when the Knicks are missing another guard. But he does well enough in that role that the Knicks trust him. It wouldn't be a surprise to see New York pick up their option to delay free agency for a year.

  16. Mac McClung – Philadelphia 76ers    RFA

    Winning the dunk contest as a highlight for McClung, but he's had a solid G League season too. He's shot well and developed into a solid playmaker. Look for McClung to get another Two-Way deal next season.

  17. Raul Neto – Cleveland Cavaliers    UFA

    Neto is what he he is at this point in his career: He's a solid veteran you can put at the end of your bench. If you need to plug him when others are out, he'll be ready to go. That should keep him in the NBA next season.

  18. Frank Ntilikina – Dallas Mavericks    UFA

    Ntilikina's defense will keep getting him chances for another year or two. But he never built on the improved shooting he flashed at the end of his Knicks tenure. That keeps him a minimum salary, end-of-bench guy.

  19. Scotty Pippen Jr. – Los Angeles Lakers    RFA

    Pippen has done a nice job as a scorer in the G League. He's too quick and athletic for most defenders at that level. His shot, playmaking and defense are a work in progress. He'll be a Two-Way guy again.

  20. Derrick Rose – New York Knicks    CLUB

    Rose is nearing the end of his run. He remade himself as a very good reserve guard, but his inablity to stay healthy, combined with his declining athleticism mean the end is near. New York may simply decline their option.

  21. Duane Washington Jr. – New York Knicks    RFA

    Washington is another of those 4A guys. He's done well in limited G League games, and he's kind of hung in there in the NBA. Someone will give him another shot on a Two-Way deal.

  22. McKinley Wright IV – Dallas Mavericks    RFA

    Wright has done well in the G League, but his limited size works against him for NBA opportunities. He'll probably get another Two-Way opportunity, but he'll have to really show out to earn more than that.

2023 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Keith SmithMarch 29, 2023

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

ALL-STAR TIER

  1. Draymond Green – Golden State Warriors    PLAYER

    Green remains a top-tier defender. He's worked around his shooting and scoring shortcomings by becoming an excellent playmaker. The big question now: Does Green stay in the only NBA home he's ever known?

  2. Jerami Grant – Portland Trail Blazers    UFA

    No longer miscast as a primary option, Grant's efficiency has rebounded. He's not the defender he once was, but he's still above-average on that end. Grant's versaility is also a key attribute keeping him near the top of free agent rankings.

  3. Kristaps Porzingis – Washington Wizards    PLAYER

    Porzingis has stayed mostly healthy and turned in his best season since his ACL tear. He was an All-Star level player this season and that should sustain into his late-20s. But any contract has to price in injury concerns moving forward.

STARTER TIER

  1. Harrison Barnes – Sacramento Kings    UFA

    Even in Year 11, Barnes remains a very good starter. His defense is still solid, and Barnes can still get himself to the free throw line better than most. His ability to play either forward spot is a boon too.

  2. Kenyon Martin Jr. – Houston Rockets    CLUB

    Martin has had a breakout season. His shot remains a work in progress, but he's an top-end finisher around the rim and flashes some defensive potential. Houston should decline their team option to control Martin's restricted free agency.

  3. PJ Washington – Charlotte Hornets    RFA

    With less talent around him due to Hornets injuries, Washington has lost a bit of his efficiency. He's also slipped some as a rebounder. But Washington remains an ideal modern 4, and he can slide over and play the 5 in small-ball lineups too.

ROTATION TIER

  1. Grant Williams – Boston Celtics    RFA

    Williams has been one of the better stretch-4s in the NBA the last two seasons. Even as his volume has increased, Williams has maintained his effiency. He's also a versatile defender, solid rebounder and good passer.

  2. Georges Niang – Philadelphia 76ers    UFA

    Niang is a knockdown shooter from deep. He's probably the best shooter of this free agent power forward class. Niang is also a solid ball-mover. If he could do anything else a bit better, he'd be higher on this list.

  3. Rui Hachimura – Los Angeles Lakers    RFA

    Hachimura hasn't been able to build on his solid 2022 season, but he's still a good rotation forward. He's been about equally as productive coming off the bench or starting, and that versatility should see him land with a playoff contender.

  4. Trey Lyles – Sacramento Kings    UFA

    Lyles is an underrated player. He's become a good shooter and solid positional defender. His ability to play both the 4 and 5 gives him the versatility teams look for in the frontcourt.

  5. Jalen McDaniels – Philadelphia 76ers    UFA

    McDaniels was in the midst of a breakout season before being traded to the 76ers. His role has been lessened in Philadelphia, but if he can show his inside-outside game in the postseason, it will help his cause in free agency.

  6. Jeff Green – Denver Nuggets    UFA

    Green keeps chugging along in Year 15. He's probably equal parts 5 and 4 now, and he no longer shoots from the outside. But teams can do worse for a fourth big, who brings a solid locker room presence.

  7. Danilo Gallinari – Boston Celtics    PLAYER

    Gallinari has yet to play this season after tearing his ACL. It's likely he'll opt in and debut for the Celtics next season.

  8. JaMychal Green – Golden State Warriors    UFA

    For a while, it looked like Green wasn't a rotation guy anymore. Then he started seeing more minutes and he's put up a 54/38/78 shooting line, while still providing good rebounding at both the 4 and 5.

  9. Dario Saric – Oklahoma City Thunder    UFA

    In his first full season back from a torn ACL suffered in the 2021 NBA Finals, Saric has been solid. He's shot it well from deep and remains a good ball-mover. A contender might get a bargain deal on him for next season.

  10. Keita Bates-Diop – San Antonio Spurs    UFA

    Bates-Diop could be the sleeper of this class. He's seen more minutes and starts than he would on a playoff contender, but it's hard to ignore 50/39/78 shooting splits. Some smart team could scoop him up as a rotation forward.

  11. Derrick Jones Jr. – Chicago Bulls    PLAYER

    It's been a weird season for Jones. Between injuries and an inconsistent role, he's been unable to gain much traction. Jones is only 26 and still an uber-athlete. Someone will give him another shot to fill some rotation minutes.

  12. Rudy Gay – Utah Jazz    PLAYER

    Gay has slipped enough that he'll probably just pick up his player option. From there, it's up to the Jazz to keep him or move Gay to a contender. However, his days as a key rotation player are likely over.

  13. Wenyen Gabriel – Los Angeles Clippers    UFA

    Gabriel is probably a little over his head as a rotation player. He doesn't have any standout traits. Ideally, he'd be a fifth big for a good team, instead of the key backup role he's had to play for the Lakers this season.

  14. Justise Winslow – Portland Trail Blazers    UFA

    Winslow has never been able to build on the promise he showed in his Miami years. He's also struggled to stay healthy. Someone will take another shot, but we're getting down to last-chance time here for the versatile wing/forward.

FRINGE TIER (UNRANKED AND PRESENTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

  1. Thanasis Antetokounmpo – Milwaukee Bucks    UFA

    Antetokounmpo is with the Bucks because he's an elite cheerleader on the bench and it keeps his brother happy. That'll get him another deal in Milwaukee.

  2. Dominick Barlow – San Antonio Spurs    RFA

    Barlow is one of the younger players in the NBA. He won't turn 20 until the end of May. San Antonio may bring him back for another year on a Two-Way.

  3. Darius Bazley – Phoenix Suns    RFA

    Bazley's play has slipped and he fell completely out of the Thunder's rotation and hasn't found a role with the Suns either. His potential will get him another deal, with a team hoping Bazley is a late-bloomer.

  4. Oshae Brissett – Indiana Pacers    UFA

    For a while, it looked like Brissett was going to be a regular rotation player. This season, he's fallen out of favor as Indiana ran with small-ball lineups. Someone will grab Brissett and hope there's still some untapped potential there.

  5. Moussa Diabate – Los Angeles Clippers    RFA

    Diabate has had very little impact in the NBA, but he's been good in the G League. He's shown some elite rebounding skills, along with solid finishing and good rim protection. He'll likely get another Two-Way deal.

  6. Mamadi Diakite – Cleveland Cavaliers    RFA

    Diakite is the NBA equivalent of a 4A player. He's too good for the G League, but not quite good enough for the NBA. He's got one more season of Two-Way eligibility, before he'll be fighting for backend roster spots.

  7. Udonis Haslem – Miami Heat    UFA

    If Haslem were to return, and it doesn't look like he will, it'll be with the Heat and no one else.

  8. Andre Iguodala – Golden State Warriors    UFA

    Iguodala has said this is it. But it's been an injury-plagued mess of a season. It's unlikely he'll come back for another run, but if he did, it'll be with Golden State.

  9. James Johnson – Indiana Pacers    UFA

    In Year 14, Johnson is a practice guy and a good locker room presence. If he's back somewhere next season, those are the reasons why.

  10. Mfiondu Kabengele – Boston Celtics    RFA

    Kabengele has been an excellent G League player for three seasons now. He's an excellent rebounder and rim protector in the minors. If he could shoot it better, he'd be an NBA guy. Alas, he's got one more season of Two-Way eligibility left.

  11. Nathan Knight – Minnesota Timberwolves    CLUB

    The Wolves will probably pick up their team option for Knight. If Naz Reid leaves town, Knight could battle Luka Garza for the third-big minutes behind Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns next season.

  12. Isaiah Mobley – Cleveland Cavaliers    RFA

    Mobley might have gotten his spot because his brother is a budding Cavs star. But Mobley kept it with dominant G League play. His numbers project favorably for a potential NBA role, but his age is starting to work against him a little bit.

  13. Markieff Morris – Dallas Mavericks    UFA

    If Morris' three-point shooting felt a bit more real, he'd probably squeeze a couple more years out of his NBA career. As it is, he's a deep bench veteran big, and there are only so many of those spots to go around.

 

2023 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward Center 

Keith SmithMarch 21, 2023

Around Christmastime of 2013, it was fair to wonder if the now Brooklyn Nets were dealing with some sort of “good, but never good enough” curse from leaving New Jersey or something. In their first season in Brooklyn, the Nets made the 2013 playoffs. They were eliminated in a competitive playoff series against the Chicago Bulls, but the things were looking bright.

In the summer of 2013, the Nets added Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the mix, alongside All-Stars Joe Johnson and Deron Williams. That 2013-14 team squeaked by the Toronto Raptors in seven games, but was bounced in relatively easy fashion by the Miami Heat in the second round. By the 2015 playoffs, the Nets were bowing out again the first round and the supposed super team was broken up and a rebuild was in order.

Most of the criticism for the failure of those “can’t miss” Nets gets lumped at the feet aging stars Garnett, Pierce and Johnson, with plenty saved for Williams. But a forgotten part of that whole letdown was Brook Lopez.

Essentially a decade later, it’s easy to forget how big a part of that team Lopez was supposed to be. After playing in just five games during the 2011-12 season, the Nets last in New Jersey, Lopez became an All-Star in 2013. Johnson and Williams were the stars, but Lopez was the Nets best player when they debuted in Brooklyn.

The next season, in Year 1 of the super team Nets, Lopez was on the shelf by Christmas and the Nets were good, but not good enough. Lopez bounced back with three more solid seasons for Brooklyn, but the now-rebuilding Nets didn’t have a need for him as he approached 30, and shuttled him off to the Los Angeles Lakers.

After one OK season in Hollywood, the Lakers let Lopez walk for nothing. He was 30, coming off a down year and had that history of serious leg and foot injuries. When Lopez signed with the Milwaukee Bucks in 2018 for just the $3.4 million Bi-Annual Exception, it was seen a flyer for the Bucks.

That flyer has turned out to be one of the best signings, and subsequent re-signings, the NBA has seen over the past five years, in terms of contract, production and winning.

Now, Lopez’s second contract with the Bucks, a four-year, $52 million bargain deal, is coming to an end. Somewhat shockingly, at 35 years old, Lopez is poised to cash in again as a free agent, just like he did in 2015. Let’s take a look at Lopez’s options.

The Veteran Extension

Because he’s in the final season of his contract, Lopez will be extension-eligible all the way through June 30. He can sign a veteran extension with the Bucks that would normally look like the following:

    • 2023-24: $16,688,371
    • 2024-25: $18,023,441
    • 2025-26: $19,358,511
    • 2026-27: $20,693,581
    • Total: four years, $74,763,904

That’s a 120% bump over Lopez’s current salary of $13.9 million with 8% raises. But, there’s a complicating factor at play here for Lopez in any sort of four-year contract, and that’s the Over-38 rule.

Because Lopez would be 38 years old at the start of the 2026-27 season, the Over-38 rule would be triggered in this type of extension. It doesn’t prevent the Bucks from signing Lopez to a Veteran Extension, but in this case, the extension would be functionally a three-year deal, because of the cap of a 120% raise off this season’s salary.

In effect, Lopez would be limited to the following in an extension:

    • 2023-24: $16,688,371
    • 2024-25: $18,023,441
    • 2025-26: $19,358,511
    • Total: three years, $54,070,323

That’s still a 120% bump off of this year’s salary of $13.9 million, with 8% raises on the following two seasons.

Because of the way the Over-38 rule handles deferred salary, the Bucks would have to push any salary from Year 4 onto Years 1-3. In this case, Year 1 has a cap of 120% raise or the roughly $16.7 million. So, there’s no further room to push that salary up, which eliminates a fourth year.

Now, there is an additional factor at play here, which involves the way a “zero year” (a year with no cap hit) is handled in an Over-38 contract. The Bucks could get creative and sign Lopez to a four-year extension worth almost the same amount. That deal would look like this:

    • 2023-24: $16,688,371 cap hit = $12,233,381 actual salary + $4,454,990 deferred salary
    • 2024-25: $17,534,513 cap hit = $12,845,050 actual salary + $4,689,463 deferred salary
    • 2025-26: $18,380,655 cap hit = $13,456,719 actual salary + $4,923,936 deferred salary
    • 2026-27: $0 cap hit - $14,068,388 actual salary + $0 deferred salary
    • Total: four years, $52,603,538

The benefit in this case for the Bucks is that if they were in a position where they ever needed to waive and stretch Lopez, they could do so based on having an extra year in the contract. However, the cap hits would increase each year, while Lopez would be sacrificing about $1.4 million in total money.

Re-signing with the Bucks as a free agent

It’s hard to envision Brook Lopez leaving Milwaukee at this point. He’s been there for five years now, and five very good years at that. The Bucks can offer him up to his max of $46,900,000 in first-year salary. For a reference point, here’s the max deal Lopez can get from Milwaukee:

    • 2023-24: $46,900,000
    • 2024-25: $50,652,000
    • 2025-26: $54,404,000
    • Total: three years, $151,956,000

That’s the full 35% of the projected $134 million cap with 8% raises. As covered above, the Over-38 rule functionally limits Milwaukee to a three-year deal for Lopez, but especially so if they did anything approaching a max deal (however unlikely that may be).

Re-signing with another team as a free agent

Hard is may be to envision, let’s say Lopez leaves Milwaukee this summer. This is the max an opposing team could pay Lopez:

    • 2023-24: $46,900,000
    • 2024-25: $49,245,000
    • 2025-26: $51,590,000
    • Total: three years, $147,735,000

That’s the same first-year salary at 35% of the projected $134 million cap, but with 5% raises. Same as an extension with Milwaukee or re-signing with the Bucks, the Over-38 rule would come into play with another team, effectively eliminating a fourth year.

Summary

Brook Lopez is in a very interesting place. Sure, he’s about to be 35 years old, and the thought of handing any player at that age a ton of money is a bit scary. But, outside of a back issue last season, Lopez has been very durable for the entirety of his five-year Milwaukee tenure.

Lopez is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate this season. And he’s averaging 15.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. Those are all the highest averages Lopez has had since his final year with the Nets in 2016-17. It’s not a career-year, because Lopez used to be a All-Star, but it’s a late-career rebound of sorts.

A major factor is Lopez’s perfect fit in the Bucks ecosystem. He’s become the preeminent stretch-5, non-Karl-Anthony Towns division, in the NBA. His shooting helps open the floor for Giannis Antetokounmpo. And teams can’t stash a small on Lopez, because he’s still very willing to mash them in the post.

Defensively, Lopez is the key to the Bucks drop defense. He anchors everything for Milwaukee, and you can see and feel the difference when he’s off the floor. Even when Lopez isn’t directly blocking shots, he’s altering them and forcing misses.

If Lopez was 25 years old vs 35 years old, he’d be a no-brainer max player. It wouldn’t even be a question. But he is 35 years old. And Lopez does have some injury history to at least be cognizant of.

We can start by eliminating any kind of four-year extension or four-year new deal this summer. The Over-38 complications make it simply not worth it.

We can also eliminate anything approaching the max. As good as Lopez is, no one is handing a max deal to a center of his age.

The three-year veteran extension feels about right. It would come with an $18 million AAV, and that’s pretty reasonable for Lopez. However, if you’re the Bucks, you might prefer he hits free agency and you can sign him to a slightly bigger deal in terms of first-year salary for next season, but have it descend each of the following two seasons.

That deal could look something like this:

    • 2023-24: $19,600,000
    • 2024-25: $18,032,000
    • 2025-26: $16,464,000
    • Total: three years, $54,096,000

That would be the maximum allowable 8% declines per season. It comes in roughly at the same amount as the three-year Veteran Extension, but as Lopez’s play presumably falls off, his impact on the cap sheet would decrease too.

For Milwaukee, they have another factor to consider too. This roster is getting expensive! The Bucks already have $114 million committed to the roster for six players for next season. Khris Middleton is highly likely to opt out of his deal, as he’ll be one of the best free agents available this summer.

That’s a lot of roster spots to fill, and that’s without factoring in new deals for Middleton and Lopez. This season, the Bucks are more than $28 million into the luxury tax. If they re-sign both Middleton and Lopez, and fill out the roster with reasonably projected deals for some other pending free agents, Milwaukee will be deep into the tax again next season. And that will probably carry over for at least a season or two after that.

If keeping the immediate tax bill down is a factor, the Bucks will likely be looking for Brook Lopez to do a deal in the range of what he can get via the Veteran Extension. Ideally, they might be able to even get somewhat of a hometown discount, maybe something in the range of three-years, $45 million?

If the goal is to keep the tax bill down in future years, when the repeater tax will become a factor, Milwaukee would be better off front-loading a new deal for Lopez in free agency. That would be costly this year, but helpful when the 2025 and 2026 tax bills come due. Of course, if Middleton were to leave, the Bucks would have considerably more flexibility with what they could offer Lopez and the structure they could use.

Brook Lopez has found a home in Milwaukee. He’s a perfect fit there and seemingly happy there. That presumably gives the Bucks somewhat of an advantage on keeping their big man home. But coming off a great late-career season, Milwaukee can’t expect too much of a hometown discount. Expect Lopez to land a deal that pays him between $15 and $18 million AAV, with the structure of the deal telling us a lot about both the Bucks immediate and future plans.

Keith SmithMarch 15, 2023

Austin Reaves has one of those NBA success stories you love to see. Reaves went undrafted out of Oklahoma at the 2021 NBA Draft before signing a two-way contract with the Los Angeles Lakers. Following Summer League and offseason workouts, the Lakers quickly signed Reaves to a two-year, standard contract before his first official NBA game.

It’s that two-year nature of the deal that has the Lakers in a complicated spot as far as keeping Reaves beyond this season.

When Los Angeles signed Reaves, they were only able to offer him a two-year deal at the minimum. That’s sees Reaves paid $1,563,518 for this season. The reason the deal was so short and so small is that the Lakers had no other avenues with which to give Reaves a larger or longer deal. Los Angeles had already committed most of their Taxpayer MLE to Kendrick Nunn. That left just a minimum deal for Reaves, and deals signed using the Minimum Exception can only be for two years in length.

Flipping forward to today, Reaves is an integral member of the Lakers rotation and Nunn was traded to the Washington Wizards. And in a few months, Reaves will become a restricted free agent.

And that restricted free agency comes with some complications for the Lakers, because Reaves is an Arenas free agent.

In 2003, Gilbert Arenas was a breakout star with the Golden State Warriors. As Arenas emerged, Golden State happened to be a fairly expensive team. When the Washington Wizards gave Arenas a big offer sheet as a restricted free agent, the Warriors were essentially powerless to match it. That meant, despite hitting on a second-round selection, Golden State lost Arenas for nothing.

The 2005 CBA rectified things (to a point) by creating the Gilbert Arenas Provision. This gives incumbent teams a far greater opportunity at retaining players who are now classified as Arenas restricted free agents.

In order for a player to be an Arenas free agent, they must be coming off their first or second year in the NBA and they must be given a qualifying offer and made a restricted free agent. When a player is an Arenas free agent, opposing teams can still offer whatever salary they are able to give, but the incumbent team is given an avenue to match the offer.

What happens in these offers is that the first-year salary for an Arenas free agent is limited to either the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE) or what a team can match using their Early Bird exception. It’s important to note that this only applies to players who are Early Bird free agents. If they are non-Bird, then the incumbent team is limited to using the NTMLE to match.

That results in what is often referred to as a “poison pill” structure for a contract. For example, here’s what a four-year, $80 million offer sheet to an Arenas free agent would look like this offseason in terms of salary structure:

    • 2023-24: $11,368,000
    • 2024-25: $11,936,400
    • 2025-26: $27,724,010
    • 2026-27: $28,971,590
    • Total: four years, $80,000,000

If you think this deal looks different from most you are used to, you would be correct. The first two seasons are pretty standard. It’s the NTMLE amount, followed by a 5% raise. After that, it gets a little complicated. That’s where the “poison pill” descriptor comes into play, because of the huge jump in salary from Year 2 to Year 3.

How you determine the salaries for the last two season is you subtract the sum of Years 1 and 2 from the total salary. Then, you split the remainder over the final two seasons, with a 4.5% bump in salary from Year 3 to Year 4.

It’s the above process that makes an Arenas offer sheet a complicated one. The player still gets paid in full, but their team is allowed to match the offer by using the NTMLE (or Early Bird rights, if applicable) to do so. But there’s one more set of complications that matter here.

For the team signing the Arenas player to an offer sheet, the cap hits for them would be the average of the total salary over four years. Sticking with our four-year, $80 million example, the signing team would have cap hits of $20 million per season on their cap sheet.

The matching team is not only given the chance to match, but they are also given the ability to determine how they want the contract to hit their cap sheet, if they are under the cap when they match. They can use the actual salary structure as laid out above as the cap hit. Or the team can choose to use the average salary as the cap hit. If the team is over the cap and matches, they must use the structure where they match with the Early Bird exception or the NTMLE.

One final thing to note: If a team chooses to match, whatever version of cap hits they choose become that player’s cap hit for the life of the deal. This includes if they are traded to another team.

With all that in mind, let’s get back to Austin Reaves and his next contract.

The Veteran Extension

We’re only listing this to say that Austin Reaves is not extension-eligible. Reaves two-year contract is too short to eligible to be extended. Only a contract between three and six seasons in length, or a previously extended contract, can be extended.

Re-signing with the Lakers using the Early Bird Exception

The Lakers are pointing towards being an over-the-cap team this coming offseason. Instead of having $30 million or so in cap space, the pre-deadline trades LA made puts them in position to re-sign recently acquired players like D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura, and Austin Reaves.

This is where it’s fortunate that the Lakers have Early Bird rights for Reaves. While not as flexible as full Bird rights, Early Bird rights give LA a good chance to re-sign Reaves to a reasonable salary.

This is what the maximum contract the Lakers can give Reaves projects at, should they use his Early Bird Rights:

    • 2023-24: $11,331,600
    • 2024-25: $12,238,000
    • 2025-26: $13,144,656
    • 2026-27: $14,051,184
    • Total: four years, $50,765,568

Early Bird rights allows for a team to give the player a first-year salary of 105% of the average salary from the prior season. From there, the player can receive up to 8% raises. A contract using Early Bird rights must be for a minimum of two years, and can be for up to four years.

Signing with another team as a restricted free agent

This is where the Arenas Provision comes into play. We used $80 million as our example to explain the Arenas Provision, but that’s probably a little rich for Austin Reaves. But could an average salary of $15 million, for a total of $60 million, be in play? We’ve seen shooters get paid handsomely in the past. Shooters who can do a little more? Those guys always get paid.

If Reaves got a $60 million offer sheet over four years, here’s how that could look given the Arenas Provision:

    • 2023-24: $11,368,000
    • 2024-25: $11,936,400
    • 2025-26: $17,944,059
    • 2026-27: $18,751,542
    • Total: four years, $60,000,000

Remember: This is the actual salary structure. The Lakers could choose to match this structure using the NTMLE and assume the above as cap hits each season.

For the team signing Reaves to an offer sheet, they would assume the average-salary structure above as the cap hits for each season. That would look like this:

    • 2023-24: $15,000,000
    • 2024-25: $15,000,000
    • 2025-26: $15,000,000
    • 2026-27: $15,000,000
    • Total: four years, $60,000,000

(Note: The Lakers could also use Early Bird rights to match the salary structure for Reaves. That structure would look a lot like the one laid out under the Early Bird section, but with a similar bump from Year 2 to Year 3 in an Arenas offer sheet match.)

Summary

The Lakers are in a spot where a team can make them swallow hard to keep Austin Reaves. Matching first-year salary at roughly $11.3 million isn’t really an issue. That’s fair value for Reaves. The second-year salary on a 5% bump really isn’t a difficult decision either.

It’s that Year 3 bump, followed by Year 4, where it could get unwieldy.

If you match, and assume the actual structure as the Lakers, you keep your tax bill down for this season and next. With big money committed to LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and several key free agents to sign, Los Angeles is very likely to be a tax team for at least the next two seasons.

Then, in Years 3 and 4, you’ve got Reaves on a salary potentially approaching as much as $18 to $19 million. And those could be the first years of a post-James and Davis Lakers team. That could be money the Lakers might not really want on the books, especially if they are resetting their roster.

Before we get there, it’s important to ask, is Austin Reaves even worth $15 million AAV?

He’ll be 25 before next season, so he’s not exactly a young prospect. But Reaves is pretty good. And it’s not just the Lakers limelight pumping him up either.

This season, Reaves has averaged 11.3 points on 51/39/86 shooting splits. And he’s not just a three-point shooter who happens to get to the free throw line once and a while, either. Reaves is averaging 3.3 free throw attempts per game. That’s pretty good for a reserve guard.

Reaves is also a solid defender, decent rebounder for his position and a good passer. At an AAV of $15 million, he’d rank as the 25th highest-paid shooting guard in the NBA next season. That would put him right between Lu Dort and former Laker Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’d also be just behind Luke Kennard, Kevin Huerter, teammate Malik Beasley (if his option is picked up), and just ahead of Gary Harris, former teammate Talen Horton-Tucker (a one-time Arenas guy himself) and Terance Mann.

That $15 million AAV neighborhood feels about right for Reaves. With even a slightly bigger role, he’s probably producing at a level similar to most of his contemporaries in that salary range.

If you add it all up, the Los Angeles Lakers can keep Austin Reaves. Nothing should really prevent that from happening. After very questionably losing Alex Caruso two summers ago, and then trading Talen Horton-Tucker ahead of this season, it would be good to see the Lakers lock in and keep a guard they developed.

If another team wants to play a staring contest with Los Angeles, they better be prepared to come with a big enough offer to make the Lakers blink. We’re talking something probably approaching the $75-$80 million range.

From the Lakers side, they should try to get things locked up before an offer sheet even comes. That would allow Los Angeles to keep Reaves under their own terms without having to deal with matching an offer sheet. After a couple of years of somewhat of a drain of in-house, younger talent, it’s important that the Lakers do what they can to keep Reaves.

Keith SmithMarch 14, 2023

It would be disingenuous and wrong to start any article, conversation or discussion about Ja Morant with anything but hoping that he gets the help he needs. Morant has reportedly entered a counseling facility to seek help and treatment after a series of questionable off-court decisions. As one of the NBA’s brightest young stars, everyone should be rooting for Morant to get things to a good place in his life.

It’s that place as one of the NBA’s brightest young stars that earned Morant a huge contract extension that will kick in with the start of next season. Because the NBA calendar doesn’t pause, and cap sheets don’t really adjust, we’re going to examine Morant’s extension, despite far more important factors at play. The hope is to answer some of the many questions circulating about Morant’s deal and where things may go from here.

Last summer, Morant inked a five-year, maximum extension with the Memphis Grizzlies. That contract currently projects to look like this:

    • 2023-24: $33,500,000
    • 2024-25: $36,180,000
    • 2025-26: $38,860,000
    • 2026-27: $41,540,000
    • 2027-28: $44,220,000
    • Total: five years, $194,300,000

That’s 25% of the projected salary cap of $134 million for next season. Morant also gets the maximum 8% raises on the deal. There is also a 15% trade bonus in the contract. Notably, the extension includes no options. It’s a fully-guaranteed, five-year deal.

Now, here’s the important part: Morant’s extension includes Designated Rookie language. That means, Morant could be eligible to jump a salary tier in his deal. In order to get there, Morant would need to accomplish one of the following things:

  • Win 2023 NBA MVP
  • Win 2023 Defensive Player of the Year
  • Be named to a 2023 All-NBA team

Obviously, as great as Morant is, he’s not winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year. Perhaps oddly enough, the latter is far more of a stretch than the former.

But an All-NBA nod is on the table. Or, it was, at least.

If Morant is named to All-NBA, his contract will look like this instead:

    • 2023-24: $40,200,000
    • 2024-25: $43,416,000
    • 2025-26: $46,632,000
    • 2026-27: $49,848,000
    • 2027-28: $53,064,000
    • Total: five years, $233,160,000

Making All-NBA would see Morant jump to the 30% of the cap tier. He’d still get the maximum 8% raises on the deal too. The 15% trade bonus stays, no matter what. And, importantly, there will still be no options in the deal.

As you can see, there is nearly a $39 million difference for Morant in the two deals. That’s a significant amount of money, especially when you consider some of Morant’s endorsement deals now seem to be in flux.

Morant made All-NBA second team a season ago. Had he kept up his production this season, and had the Grizzlies kept winning at a solid rate, Morant was probably a lock to make All-NBA again this season.

Now that’s in question.

There’s some thought out there that Morant could miss the remainder of the regular season. If so, he’ll have appeared in only 53 games this year. On a crowded guard line for All-NBA spots that is filled with tough decisions, voters will penalize Morant for appearing in just over half-of-a-season.

The competition for All-NBA guard spots is deep. You have players like Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox, Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, James Harden, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards in the mix. That’s 10 players for six spots, and that’s without mixing in any of the more long-shot cases. And outside of maybe Doncic and Edwards (and that’s a tenuous maybe), none are very likely to be bumped to the forward line.

Had he not missed this stretch of time, with more absences to come, Morant would have had a strong case as one of the top-six guards in the NBA for this season. As noted previously, it was probably a lock Morant would have made All-NBA. That’s no longer the case.

All of our decisions have consequences. It’s fortunate that Morant’s recent questionable decisions haven’t gotten to a point of truly dire consequences. We have far too many examples we can point to of promising young men being cut down far too early in their lives due to bad decisions.

For Ja Morant, he might be facing a $39 million consequence for his poor decision-making. While that’s obviously not somewhere anyone wants to be, it could be far worse. Morant getting the help he needs to make sure that it doesn’t go beyond a contract consequence is what really matters here. All of the rest will take care of itself, over what we all should hope will be a long and productive NBA career for one of the NBA’s brightest young stars.

Keith SmithMarch 10, 2023

A lot has changed since we wrote about James Harden and his contract situation last year. Harden opted out of his deal after being traded to the Philadelphia 76ers, which was expected. What wasn’t expected was he then took less money in a new deal, which allowed Philadelphia to bring in both P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr. In exchange for that goodwill, Harden only signed a two-year deal with a player option for next season.

That all made sense. Harden made a short-term sacrifice, knowing a long-term deal would be waiting for him this summer. He’d still get a max contract, the Sixers added some key rotation players and Philadelphia would move forward with a veteran core for at least the foreseeable future.

Or so we thought.

Around Christmastime, buzz began to build that Harden was interested in returning to the Houston Rockets in free agency. Over the last few months, that buzz is now as prevalent as the droning hum of dragonflies on a summer afternoon.

It might seem ludicrous that a 14-year veteran might leave a title contender for one of the worst teams in the league. But this is the NBA. Ludicrous things happen all the time in this league.

Reports are that Harden loves Houston. And it’s not an unrequited love either. Houston loves Harden right back. Sometimes comfort is worth more to a player than contention or money.

And, due to a quirky rule in the CBA, the money might not even be all that different for Harden if he leaves the 76ers for the Rockets this summer. Let’s dive in.

The Veteran Extension

We’re only listing this to say that Harden is not extension-eligible. Because he opted out of his old deal and signed a new contract this summer, Harden is not able to extend with the 76ers. That’s one potential retention tool that has been taken off the table.

Re-signing with the 76ers as a free agent

Maybe the noise about James Harden and Houston is just that: noise. Maybe he has no intentions of leaving Philadelphia, where Beard aficionado Daryl Morey runs the show and Harden has teamed with Joel Embiid to form one of the league’s best duos.

The max Harden can effectively get from the Sixers projects as follows:

    • 2023-24: $46,900,000
    • 2024-25: $50,652,000
    • 2025-26: $54,404,000
    • 2026-27: $58,156,000
    • Total: four years, $210,112,000

That’s the 35% of the cap maximum Harden is eligible for as a player with 14 years of service. It also includes 8% raises off the projected first-year salary of $46.9 million.

You might be wondering why Harden is effectively capped at a four-year deal, when a player re-signing with Bird rights can sign for five years. Here’s where that CBA quirk of the “Over-38” rule comes into play.

Harden will turn 34 this summer. That means a five-year deal would carry him from his age-34 through age-38 seasons. That makes that final season subject to the Over-38 rule.

Now, it’s important to note that nothing prevents Philadelphia and Harden from signing a five-year deal. It would just have to be for less than the max (by a pretty large margin, because of the way cap hits work on a deal impacted by the Over-38 rule).

What happens with the Over-38 rule is that the assumption is that a player will be retired by the time they hit 38 years old (Yes, several players have tested these assumptions in recent years. Enough so that this rule has been tweaked from Over-35 to Over-36 and now to Over-38 in recent CBA negotiations). In Harden’s case, that would be on a presumptive fifth season. In this case, the salary for that fifth season would be treated as deferred compensation. The salary from that fifth season would be divided up (as percentage of the total salary) and spread across the first four seasons of the contract.

In Harden’s case, he’s presumably still a max salary player. Because no player is allowed to earn more than their individual maximum amount in first-year salary, there is nowhere to put that deferred compensation. Thus, the contract would be deemed invalid. Harden would have to take less in base salary each season, to allow for the money from the fifth season to be spread across the first four season. In that case, it would bring us right back to the $210 million amount he can get in a straight four-year, max deal.

There are ways to work around the Over-38 rule and to still sign a five-year deal, but all would involve Harden taking far less than the maximum he’s eligible for. That doesn’t seem realistic, even despite last summer’s Sixers-friendly maneuvering.

Signing with another team as a free agent:

We’ll leave this open to James Harden signing with any other team, even if all signs point to that “other” team only being the Rockets, should Harden leave the 76ers. If he leaves Philadelphia, here’s what Harden is eligible to sign for elsewhere:

    • 2023-24: $46,900,000
    • 2024-25: $49,245,000
    • 2025-26: $51,590,000
    • 2026-27: $53,935,000
    • Total: four years, $201,670,000

That’s the same 35% max in first-year salary, but it’s capped at 5% raises and only four years. And that removes the Over-38 rule from the equation entirely, as Harden would be in his age-37 season in the final year of this deal.

We can debate if Houston should be investing most of their cap space in a Harden reunion at another point, should it come to pass. The main takeaway? The Rockets currently project to have $56.2 million in cap space this summer. That’s enough for Harden and some leftover cap room. Mostly: the path for Houston to bring Harden home is not only open, it’s completely free and clear cap-wise.

Summary

James Harden opted out of $47.4 million for this season with Philadelphia 76ers and re-signed for $33 million. We can take the player option out of the mix for next season, because that was never realistically getting picked up barring Harden getting seriously injured or his game falling apart. Neither of those have happened, so we can confidently say he sacrificed $14.4 million for this season.

Because we’re working under the assumption that Harden is still a max player, that was a one-year sacrifice, should he stay in Philadelphia. If he leaves the Sixers, Harden would be giving up a further $8.5 million.

That’s a total of about $23 million Harden would have given up, should he leave for Houston or elsewhere. For a player who has already banked in excess of $300 million, and probably has over $200 million still to come, it’s not exactly inconceivable that Harden would leave the 76ers for another team. Fully maximizing his earnings don’t seem to be a real motivation.

The Over-38 rule is obviously a complicating factor here. It removes what would have been Philadelphia’s biggest advantage: a fifth year at $61.9 million. With that off the table, an $8.5 million salary deficit spread over four years isn’t going to make a difference.

One other thing to note: If Harden is willing to take less than max money, that probably increases Houston’s chances of landing him. That would allow the Rockets to have even more cap space to work with to add talent around Harden in a homecoming. In Philadelphia, taking less really just delays a tax bill or lessens it. That’s good, but it’s not quite the same as the flexibility gained while building something new in Houston.

This seems like it will come down to Harden’s desire to remain on a readymade contender in Philadelphia. The Sixers can offer him a four-year deal which would tie him to the franchise for the same amount of time as Joel Embiid. That’s a good a start toward being a title contender for at least the next few years.

Yet, there’s a ton of smoke coming from Houston. And where there is that much smoke, there’s often fire. It’s been so well reported that Harden still considered Houston to be home, that there’s something there. If the Rockets give him most of their cap space, and then package some of their kids together in smart trades, they could be a playoff team next season.

James Harden isn’t MVP of the NBA James Harden anymore. Those days are over, but he should have been an All-Star this season. Harden is still good enough to be a featured attraction on a playoff team. At the end of the day, maybe just being a playoff team and the love showered upon him from Houston is enough for Harden to finish out his career in comfort.

Keith SmithMarch 03, 2023

The Memphis Grizzlies have become the NBA’s preeminent “draft and develop” team. Of their current roster, only Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard didn’t begin their NBA careers as Grizzlies. Memphis believes in keeping their draft picks, selecting players with upside and high work ethic, and then coaching them up to get the most of their abilities.

Another thing the Grizzlies believe in? Locking up those players to long-term contracts.

In recent years, Memphis has reached extension agreements with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke, and Steven Adams. That group of four, and presumably Desmond Bane (who will be extension-eligible to this summer), will be Grizzlies through at least 2024-25.

But there’s another player who Memphis has already extended once that could be up for another new deal before he hits free agency this summer. Let’s talk about the interesting case of Dillon Brooks.

The Veteran Extension

Brooks is in the final year of the three-year, $35 million extension he signed with Memphis in 2020. Brooks is now eligible to extend again through June 30. Here’s what that extension could look like:

    • 2023-24: $13,680,000
    • 2024-25: $14,774,400
    • 2025-26: $15,868,800
    • 2026-27: $16,963,200
    • Total: four years, $61,286,400

That’s the max Brooks can get in a veteran extension. It’s a 120% bump off his current salary of $11,400,000 with 8% raises in the following years.

That’s an average of about $15.3 million per season for Brooks. That $13.7 million for next season would see Brooks ranked as the 19th highest paid small forward in the NBA, just behind Doug McDermott and ahead of Nicolas Batum. If you extrapolate that out to all wings, Brooks would be the 45th highest paid wing next season at $13.7 million.

Re-signing with the Grizzlies as a free agent

Maybe Brooks looks at the landscape this summer and sees that there are somewhere between seven and 10 team projected to have considerable cap space. Then he looks at the free agent small forwards and sees that he ranks somewhere between the third- and fifth-best free agent small forward. That could push Brooks to wait to sign a new deal until free agency.

The max Brooks could get from the Grizzlies projects to look like the follow:

    • 2023-24: $33,500,000
    • 2024-25: $36,180,000
    • 2025-26: $38,860,000
    • 2026-27: $41,540,000
    • 2027-28: $44,220,000
    • Total: five years, $194,300,000

That’s the 25% of the cap maximum Brooks is eligible for as a player with six years of service. It also includes 8% raises off the projected first-year salary of $33.5 million.

Yes, that’s more than Brooks is going to get. He’s a good player, but a first-year salary of $33.5 million would make him the sixth highest paid small forward, behind Brandon Ingram and ahead of Michael Porter Jr. Of all wing players, he would rank 13th, again nestled between Ingram and Porter. Given his shooting struggles the last two seasons, that’s a bit rich for the Grizzlies.

Signing with another team as a free agent:

It probably wouldn’t make sense for Brooks to leave Memphis, as he’s comfortable there, plays a big role and the team is good. But if Brooks got wandering eyes, here’s the max another team could give him this summer:

    • 2023-24: $33,500,000
    • 2024-25: $35,175,000
    • 2025-26: $36,850,000
    • 2026-27: $38,525,000
    • Total: four years, $144,050,000

That’s the same 30% max in first-year salary, but it’s capped at 5% raises and only four years, as Brooks would be changing teams.

This would be over double what Brooks could get by locking in for an extension with Memphis. But this is still more than Brooks is gong to get as a free agent. As much as teams value 3&D wings (or maybe it should be “3”&D in Brooks’ case), that’s not where Brooks will fall salary-wise as a free agent.

Summary

Dillon Brooks is a good player, despite the shooting challenges of the past two seasons. However, Brooks recently turned 27, so there’s probably not much, if any, improvement still to come in his game. Maybe the shooting turns back around, but everything else what it is at this point. If the shooting doesn’t bounce back, that’s a major limiting factor for Brooks.

The reality is that Brooks’ value is probably higher to the Grizzlies than it would be to another team. Could a cap space team like Orlando, Detroit or Houston add him as a mid-career veteran that would give them an infusion of wing defense? Sure. But those teams have another needs they’ll probably focus on first. In other words: Brooks probably won’t be a priority free agent for any team out of the gates this summer.

There’s also the fact that Brooks is, let’s say, an interesting personality. He’s a top-tier irritant for opponents, and that’s putting it kindly. Brooks is also a high-end irrational confidence guy. It’s not uncommon to see Brooks on the floor with several All-Stars and feel like his thought process is “I got this!”.

The Grizzlies have figured out how to make that work to their advantage. They like that he gets under the skin of opposing wing scorers. And while he might get a little wild on offense, Memphis needs that, especially when Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are out of the game. It’s an important layer of unpredictability in an offense that relies on Morant’s skywalking excellence a bit more than is comfortable at times.

Locking in on a veteran extension that would see Brooks make just north of $15 million as an average salary seems like a fair deal for both him and the Grizzlies. The potential to make slightly more could be there this summer, but that would involve leveraging an outside offer against Memphis.

If the veteran extension isn’t quite enough, a compromise for Memphis and Brooks this summer could be something that looks like this:

    • 2023-24: $18,000,000
    • 2024-25: $16,560,000
    • 2025-26: $15,120,000
    • 2026-27: $13,680,000
    • Total: four years, $63,360,000

That’s a bit more total money as the Veteran Extension option for Brooks, and it gives him more money up front. Then, as he approaches his early 30s, the salary drops into what will likely be the Non-Taxpayer MLE range.

In this type of setup, Brooks wins immediately with a salary that would rank in the top-20 of small forwards and top-35 of all wings. The Grizzlies will be an over-the-cap team this offseason, but have a ton of space under the luxury tax for 2023-24. This is a good way to use some of that flexibility by giving Brooks an up-front bump for more team-friendly salaries in the later years.

No matter what, expect Memphis and Brooks to reach an agreement on a new deal. The Grizzlies aren’t in the habit of letting their players walk and Brooks should know his value is highest in Memphis. That’s a combination that rarely sees non-max players leave town.

Michael GinnittiFebruary 17, 2023

Michael Jordan turns 60-years-old today, a milestone he celebrated by processing a record-breaking $10M donation to Make-a-Wish America.

We’ll take a quick glance back at the career contracts of Jordan on the court, which, as you might imagine, pale in comparison to what he’s ascertained as a brand off of it.

The Rookie Deal

Jordan entered the NBA as the #3 overall selection back in 1984 (Hakeem Olajuwon, Sam Bowie for those asking). On September 12th, 1984 he signed a 7 year, $6.3M rookie contract with the Chicago Bulls, including a $250,000 signing bonus & a $455,000 base salary for his inaugural season. While reports on this deal are scarce, it doesn’t appear that Jordan was in line to make $1M in any of his first 7 seasons under these terms, leaving us to believe that the contract was heavily incentive-laden.

Jordan would stay on this deal through the 1987-88 season before extending, earning an estimated $2.76M for his efforts. 

The 1988 Extension

On September 20th, 1988 the Bulls did right by Jordan, voiding out the final three years of his rookie contract to get him on an 8 year, $25.7M deal. The new contract included a base salary of $2M for the 1988-89 season, more than double the $880,000 he was set to earn on his previous deal. He would go on to earn $14.1M over the next 5 seasons, before “retiring” on October 6th, 1993.

Jordan would stay away from basketball until March 18th, 1995, returning to finish out this second contract with the Bulls, who retained his rights throughout.

The Correction Contracts

In the 1996 offseason, Michael Jordan was an unrestricted free agent. So how did the Bulls respond to the possibility of losing their franchise star? By offering him a 1 year contract for $30.1M - despite the league salary cap being $24.3M that season.

How was this possible? Like now, teams could use rights to re-sign their own players past the salary cap threshold. The difference? There were no maximum contracts in the NBA. The Bulls could offer Jordan whatever they wanted, and in this essence - they did exactly that.

Next offseason, the two sides found themselves in a similar position, with Jordan on the open market, but with Chicago still holding his rights. The Bulls responded this time with a 1 year, $33.1M contract, a salary that would stand as the highest in the NBA until the 2017-18 season when both LeBron James, and Steph Curry surpassed it.

Jordan’s $33.1M salary for the 1997-98 season was more than the average NBA payroll that season. It would be his last salary as a member of the Bulls, as Jordan would once again retire on January 13th, 1999 - with the Bulls officially renouncing his rights (for the first time) on January 21st.

The Wizards Years

Michael Jordan was hired by the Washington Wizards as their President of Operations on January 19th, 2000, a job he would stay in until May of 2003. However, on September 28, 2001, Michael Jordan returned (again) to the court, signing a 2 year, $2.03M contract to join the Washington Wizards roster. The shocking move was (rightfully) muted by the chaotic 9/11 times, and he’s on record as stating that he would donate his entire $1M salary for the 2001-02 season to victims of terrorism.

Jordan battled knee injuries during the entirety of this final contract, stepping away from the game on November 28th, 2022, and officially retiring (again again) on April 3rd, 2002. 

Career Earnings

When it was all said and done, Michael Jordan reeled in approximately $94M on the court, $63.28M of which came in the 1996 & 1997 seasons alone.

He earned $91.8M from the Chicago Bulls, and another $2.03M from the Washington Wizards

Keith SmithFebruary 14, 2023

Since the last time we did this at the opening of trade season in mid-December, quite a bit has changed. The Indiana Pacers used a chunk of next year’s cap space to renegotiate-and-extend Myles Turner’s contract. The Los Angeles Lakers made several trades to prop up this season’s roster, while also adding players they could keep long-term. The San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons both took on money that carries into next season and, just as importantly, didn’t trade some players who now project to stick around.

There are more moves to come, as teams are in the midst of buyout season for about two more weeks. However, buyout season rarely changes much as far as next summer’s spending outlook goes.

With all that in mind, it’s time to look at some updated 2023 cap space and exception projections.

(Note: 538’s 2022-23 NBA standings projections have been used here to determine 2023 NBA Draft selections and their corresponding cap holds. Projections on options, guarantees and renouncements have also been made. No trades have been projected for any teams.)

Cap Space Teams

  1. Houston Rockets - $56.2 million
  2. Utah Jazz - $53.8 million
  3. San Antonio Spurs - $46.0 million
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder - $30.4 million
  5. Detroit Pistons - $27.9 million
  6. Indiana Pacers - $26.6 million
  7. Sacramento Kings - $21.5 million
  8. Orlando Magic - $21.1 million

Only eight teams project to have cap space, and it could end up being fewer than that. Some of these teams are in the running for Victor Wembanyama. If they land him, then pressure to spend to win right could increase. Or the pressure could be off for a year of watching the generational prospect develop.

The Rockets projection shouldn’t change much. Houston has seven players on rookie scale contracts and two others playing out the deals they signed as second-round picks. Only Kevin Porter (his rookie scale extension kicks in next year) and Jae’Sean Tate are signed to long-term non-first contracts. Look for Houston to decline KJ Martin’s team option, in order to make him a restricted free agent. But that move won’t push the Rockets out of the top spot in available cap space.

Utah moved out some of their pending decisions at the trade deadline. They don’t have to decide on keeping Mike Conley or Jarred Vanderbilt anymore, and that increases their cap space projection by quite a bit. Even if bit players like Rudy Gay, Talen Horton-Tucker and Damian Jones opt in, the Jazz still have the second-most projected cap space in the league. Without a ton of roster spots to fill, Utah could take a major swing this summer. Keep an eye on a potential Jordan Clarkson extension to eat into a bit of their projected space.

The Spurs added some money into next year by taking on Devonte’ Graham and Khem Birch’s deals at the deadline. That’s fine, as San Antonio seems to be at least on more year out from trying to move things forward in a significant way.

The Thunder are in a really fun spot. They’ve got about $30 million to spend, and no really tough decisions to make on pending free agents. That could make Oklahoma City a threat to spend big on one major addition to a young roster that is ready to start winning at a higher rate.

Detroit kept Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks at the deadline. That changed their projection a bit for the summer. Instead of being up around the Rockets/Jazz territory, the Pistons should be middle to the pack. But with some good, young players and keeping the couple of vets, Detroit might not need to spend on a lot of players. One big addition could be in play for a roster that’s almost there.

The Pacers chose to eat into their cap space by extending Myles Turner. By using a chunk of this season’s leftover space, Indiana was able to give Turner an immediate bump in salary, while also keeping his number down for the future. This is another roster this is mostly full. Indiana could use one more forward with size. They’ve got the spending power to get that done this summer.

Sacramento is a swing team. They could easily create about $21 million in spending power. Or the Kings could stay over the cap and choose to retain a few of their own free agents. Sacramento could also make this whole thing moot by agreeing to an extension with Harrison Barnes before July. A lot might depend on how this playoff push turns out for the Kings.

Orlando didn’t trade Gary Harris at the deadline, and they won’t just waive him. That’s now the biggest difference between the Magic having in the mid-$30 million range in cap space and being in the low-$20 million range. In order to get in the mix for a $25-$30 million point guard, as has been rumored, there will have to be another move or two coming from Orlando. And that move isn’t an obvious one.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

  1. Charlotte Hornets
  2. Chicago Bulls
  3. Memphis Grizzlies
  4. Minnesota Timberwolves
  5. New York Knicks
  6. Portland Trail Blazers

Cap flexibility is a bit of a division between haves and have-nots in the summer of 2023. That’s reflected by just these six teams looking like they’ll have the Non-Taxpayer MLE to use.

The Grizzlies remain easiest team to slot in here. They’ve got a mostly full roster after extending their own players over the years. The only real free agent of note is Dillon Brooks, and there’s a decent chance he could be the next player to extend. But even with Brooks at a fair number for both sides and Memphis should have enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. The real question for the Grizzlies is about having enough roster spots to re-sign Brooks, add a free agent and bring in another drafted player.

The Hornets are a real swing team. A lot hinges on what happens with P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges. Washington wasn’t traded, so that assumes Charlotte wants to keep him. The “Hornets are ready to re-sign Miles Bridges” trial balloon was a massive miss a couple of months ago. But that situation still needs resolved. If those guys move on, the Hornets will be a cap space team.

Chicago mostly depends on how far they go to re-sign Nikola Vucevic. They didn’t trade the veteran center at the deadline, which means he’s probably getting a contract offer. Keep an eye on a potential extension for Vucevic, ideally a somewhat team-friendly one. That could clear things up for Chicago heading into what’s shaping up to be a very important summer.

Minnesota is in a good spot. They’ve got one more year before the team gets really, really expensive with Karl-Anthony Town’s supermax extension kicking in, and likely a Designated Rookie scale max extension coming for Anthony Edwards. If Naz Reid doesn’t break the bank, the Wolves should have enough room to use the full MLE this summer for the last time in a few years.

New York’s roster is mostly defined. That’s a good spot to be in, while also having access to the full MLE. Look for the Knicks to make a targeted signing to fill out their rotation.

Portland’s flexibility mostly revolves around what happens with Jerami Grant. He could extend, or he could command a big deal as a free agent. Add in some uncertainty with Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle as restricted free agents, and the Trail Blazers are in a bit of a weird place. They could just as easily slip into having only the Taxpayer MLE, pending new contracts for Grant, Reddish and Thybulle.

Non-Taxpayer or Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

  1. Brooklyn Nets
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers
  3. Dallas Mavericks
  4. Los Angeles Lakers
  5. Toronto Raptors
  6. Washington Wizards

No team did more to change their future at the trade deadline than Brooklyn. The Nets now have a roster full of good-but-not-great players. Cam Johnson is the only major free agent for Brooklyn too. But the roster feels unfinished. With so many good players at the same positions, there’s going to be more movement coming here. If enough salary goes out, that could put the Nets in range to use the full MLE.

The Cavs outlook depends solely on what happens with new deals for Caris LeVert and Kevin Love. If those players re-sign for even semi-team-friendly terms, Cleveland will have the Non-Taxpayer MLE. If those deals push the team salary up, then the Cavaliers will have the Taxpayer MLE.

Dallas is now beholden to the Kyrie Irving experience. Irving says he doesn’t want to talk about his contract until the summer, but it’s the key question for the Mavs. If he re-signs, Dallas is likely to be a tax team. If Irving walks, the Mavericks could be a potential cap space team.

The Lakers made a bunch of moves ahead of the trade deadline and all seem to have a long-term bend to them. Los Angeles could still create $30 million in cap space, but for now they’ll probably focus on re-signing guys like D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura, while also picking up Malik Beasley’s team option. That means it’s just the Taxpayer MLE to work with again, but this time it’s with a far-more fleshed out roster.

Despite being in a million trade rumors, Toronto only brought back Jakob Poeltl and called it a deadline. Trading for Poeltl signaled the Raptors intend to re-sign him, but they still have major decisions to make with Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. Re-signing either probably makes Toronto a tax team, or really close. Letting them go would give the Raps access to the full MLE.

Much like Toronto, Washington chose to hang onto their pending free agents in Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis. This one is pretty simple: Re-signing Kuzma and Porzingis will put Washington close to the tax. Losing either will give the Wizards the full MLE. Losing both means Washington is a very unexpected cap space team.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

  1. Atlanta Hawks
  2. Boston Celtics
  3. Denver Nuggets
  4. Golden State Warriors
  5. LA Clippers
  6. Miami Heat
  7. Milwaukee Bucks
  8. New Orleans Pelicans
  9. Philadelphia 76ers
  10. Phoenix Suns

This is a pretty huge group of teams dancing around the luxury tax line. The thing all of these teams have in common is that they’re already locked in to the core of their rosters for at least the next two seasons.

Many of these teams have re-signed players to max or near-max deals in recent years. A few have pending free agents who will be pushing for a max deal next offseason. And a handful are already all but guaranteed to be over the tax.

The Celtics, Nuggets, Warriors, Clippers, Heat and Suns are all going to be tax teams, barring something really unexpected. That leaves four teams from this group with some unanswered questions.

Atlanta didn’t make any major moves. That’s got them staring at being a tax team next season. If they move John Collins (don’t laugh!) the Hawks could create enough flexibility to have the Non-Taxpayer MLE. But they also have to figure out what to do with Bogdan Bogdanovic, who will be looking to cash in on one more big contract.

The Bucks will probably be deep in the tax again next season. The only way they aren’t is if Khris Middleton leaves town. That would have Milwaukee in a completely different position of having to rebuild a bit of their top-end depth, instead of figuring out how to improve on the edges of the rotation.

The Pelicans have a mostly full roster. That’s good news, as they won’t have much spending power this summer. With Zion Williamson’s max extension kicking in, New Orleans is sitting on three $30 million-plus players. Despite that, keep an eye on the Pelicans adding even more salary, as they’d be smart to decline their team option for Naji Marshall. That would get Marshall paid a year early, but by making him a restricted free agent this summer, it would remove a potentially dangerous situation with the important forward hitting unrestricted free agency in 2024.

The 76ers being a taxpayer or not is tied to James Harden’s free agency. If Harden signs for the max, Philadelphia will be deep into the tax. If Harden takes less again, the Sixers will have some flexibility. If Harden were to walk (and that buzz keeps getting a little louder), the 76ers will find themselves retooling the roster around Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and the final year of Tobias Harris’ contract.

Keith SmithFebruary 10, 2023

On the heels of the NBA trade deadline, there’s always a rush to declare who won or lost trades. However, as the old saying goes: “Sometimes the best trades are ones you don’t make.”

That means, it’s not always really clear if a team won or lost at the trade deadline. And we often no idea the full impact in the days and week after either. Some deals will take years to have to their stories written.

With all that said, we can start the process of declaring winners and losers. We just have to do it with a hearty helping of understanding that this could all look really silly as things play out over time.

Atlanta Hawks

Status: Losers

The moves: Acquired Saddiq Bey, Bruno Fernando, Garrison Mathews. Traded Justin Holiday, Frank Kaminsky, seven second-round picks.

Those familiar with this author’s work know he’s a big fan of John Collins. Not trading Collins is almost enough to tab the Hawks as winner. Alas, taking that Collins bias out of the mix, the Hawks are just sort of…well…the Hawks still. Saddiq Bey is a good player, but did Atlanta need a backup forward that badly? Was the market for Collins so poor that they couldn’t have moved on? And the Hawks took on money for next year. As always, the Hawks remain confusing and stuck in the middle.

Boston Celtics

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Mike Muscala. Traded Justin Jackson, two second-round picks.

Boston isn’t a huge winner or anything. Mike Muscala will be a fourth or fifth big for them. But they filled a position of need by trading a non-rotation player. Muscala should be a good fit and the Celtics can now rest Al Horford and Rob Williams as necessary for the rest of the regular season. If Boston adds a decent wing on the buyout market, they’ll have done good in-season work.

Brooklyn Nets

Status: Losers today, Winners tomorrow

The moves: Acquired Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Cam Johnson, five first-round picks, one first-round pick swap, three second-round picks. Traded Kevin Durant, Kessler Edwards, Kyrie Irving, Markieff Morris, T.J. Warren.

The Nets are worse today. That’s life when you trade Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. But Brooklyn is now pretty well set up for years to come. Mikal Bridges is awesome. We’ll see if he can expand his offense with all the room to grow that he never fully had in Phoenix. Cam Johnson is really good too. And those Suns picks are great. The early ones might be late first-rounders, but the later ones will come long after the Suns might have set. Getting Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith and another potentially post-Doncic first in a no-leverage situation is great work. Sean Marks might have the Nets set up in a reverse-Boston style from their disastrous trade with the Celtics from so many years ago.

Charlotte Hornets 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Reggie Jackson, Svi Mykhailiuk, three second-round picks. Traded Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee, one second-round pick.

Charlotte is about in the same place. They opened up more minutes for Mark Williams, which is a big win. He’s pretty good. But they lost Jalen McDaniels. He’s also pretty good. But Charlotte was in a tricky contract spot with P.J. Washington a restricted free agent this summer, and Miles Bridges restricted free agency still dangling out there. Coming away +2 in terms of second-round picks is good, especially getting back their own second-rounder this year, which should be a very good one.

Chicago Bulls 

Status: Losers

The moves: None.

The Bulls didn’t do anything. Despite the idea we espoused in the open about “sometimes the best trade is one you don’t make, that doesn’t apply to Chicago. Are they really re-signing Nikola Vucevic to a new, long-term deal this summer? He’s played fine, but that could be a really messy contract very quickly. Somehow, Chicago still has uncertainty at point guard with Lonzo Ball out, despite having a bunch of in-house options. This roster needed to be shaken up and the Bulls didn’t do it.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Status: Losers (kind of)

The moves: None.

Like the Bulls, the Cavs sat out trade season. But unlike Chicago, Cleveland didn’t have to do anything. They explored upgrading on the wing by dangling Caris LeVert and Kevin Love. Nothing came of it, and that’s ok. The Cavaliers did their big work over the summer and it’s paid off with a pretty stable roster.

Dallas Mavericks

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Kyrie Irving, Markieff Morris. Traded Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, one first-round pick, two second-round picks.

Dallas comes out of this deadline looking pretty good. Kyrie Irving will behave himself for at least the rest of this season. That’ll be enough to give the Mavs a souped-up version of what they had with Jalen Brunson. He’ll be fine playing with Luka Doncic. The defense in Dallas is a question mark, but they’re going to be tough to stop on offense. It’s beyond this year where things get a little worrisome, but that’s tomorrow’s problem.

Denver Nuggets 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Thomas Bryant. Traded Bones Hyland, Davon Reed, one second-round pick.

Thomas Bryant is a nice enough addition for the Nuggets, but weren’t Zeke Nnaji and Jeff Green fine in the minimal minutes behind Nikola Jokic? And they created a hole at backup point guard, but the Bones Hyland situation was obviously too far gone to be salvaged. If Denver adds a quality point guard on the buyout market, and plenty look to be available, they’ll be fine.

Detroit Pistons 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired James Wiseman. Traded Saddiq Bey, Kevin Knox.

Detroit is in a weird place. They’ve again got too many centers (even after Nerlens Noel is presumably bought out) and they traded a forward everyone seems to like. But if James Wiseman can find his footing and blossom in a low-pressure environment, Detroit will be a big winner. The talent is there with Wiseman and this will be his best shot to put it all together.

Golden State Warriors 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Gary Payton II, two second-round picks. Traded James Wiseman, two second-round picks.

The Warriors got back a key cog from last year’s championship team. And they got him for a non-rotation player. That’s a win. Sure, it’s oversimplifying, but it was time for Golden State to but bait with James Wiseman. Getting someone they have familiarity with and that they know they can throw into big playoff games is a big upgrade.

Houston Rockets 

Status: Winners (kind of)

The moves: Acquired Danny Green, Justin Holiday, Frank Kaminsky, John Wall, one first-round pick swap, two second-round picks. Traded Bruno Fernando, Eric Gordon, Garrison Mathews.

Houston traded Eric Gordon and facilitated a tax-savings move for Atlanta and they landed some draft capital for it. But was that enough? After years of shopping Gordon, the Rockets sort of just settled. They did clear a little more flexibility moving forward, which is always a plus. But there just isn’t a whole lot here. It is kind of funny that after doing that eight-player deal with the Thunder over the summer and waiving everyone, Houston could end up waiving all four guys they acquired at the deadline too.

Indiana Pacers 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired George Hill, Serge Ibaka, Jordan Nwora, three second-round picks. Traded draft rights to Juan Vaulet.

The Pacers got three second-round picks for renting their cap space to facilitate Jae Crowder landing in Milwaukee. That’s a win. And keep an eye on Jordan Nwora. He’s flashed in the past. The Pacers don’t really have a lot of forwards with his size. Nwora could end up popping on his team-friendly deal.

LA Clippers 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland, Mason Plumlee, three second-round picks. Traded Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, John Wall, one first-round pick swap, three second-round picks, one second-round pick swap

The Clippers upgraded their bench in a major way. Mason Plumlee gives them the backup center they’ve been looking for all season. Bones Hyland gives them a young player at the point guard spot. And Eric Gordon should be an upgrade on Luke Kennard, especially in terms of being healthy. If they can make themselves care enough to push homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, the Clippers could make a Finals run.

Los Angeles Lakers 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Mo Bamba, Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, two second-round picks. Traded Patrick Beverley, Thomas Bryant, Damian Jones, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Russell Westbrook, one first-round pick, two second-round picks.

Are the Lakers Finals contenders? No. Are they a lot better than they were before trade season? Absolutely. Each move they made at the deadline brought in a better player, or at least better fit. And that’s without factoring in the Rui Hachimura upgrade from a couple of weeks ago. Los Angeles now has a viable rotation that is deep with NBA players, and they have some size and versatility. That’s not enough to dig them out of their hole for a deep playoff run. But a run to the Play-In Tournament and maybe the playoffs themselves? That’s certainly in play. And the Lakers gave up very little future flexibility to get there.

Memphis Grizzlies 

Status: Winners (sort of)

The moves: Acquired Luke Kennard, one second-round pick swap. Traded Danny Green, three second-round picks.

Luke Kennard fills a pretty big need for Memphis. They had to add more shooting and there wasn’t a better shooter available than Kennard. Memphis also gave up relatively little to get Kennard too. From all the reporting, they put a lot on the table for Kevin Durant and made a very nice offer for OG Anunoby too. But offers and getting it done are too very different things. But if the Nets and Raptors wanted more than some interesting kids and a bunch of draft picks, it was probably best for the Grizzlies to hold off.

Miami Heat 

Status: Losers

The moves: Acquired cash considerations. Traded Dewayne Dedmon, one second-round pick.

The Heat have put themselves in a really tough spot with their cap sheet. Kyle Lowry has fallen off a cliff and Duncan Robinson has fallen completely off the planet. That’s essentially $45-$50 million of bad money that the Heat have to work around. That led to salary-dumping Dewayne Dedmon, which is fine. That opens up the flexibility to convert Orlando Robinson to a standard contract. But a lot of teams got better in the East and Miami didn’t.

Milwaukee Bucks

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Jae Crowder. Traded George Hill, Serge Ibaka, Jordan Nwora, five second-round picks.

After months of speculation and trying, the Bucks finally landed Jae Crowder. Assuming he can ramp up relatively quickly, Crowder gives Milwaukee that big wing/forward that they need. He’ll be even more important while Bobby Portis is out. Sure, Milwaukee seemingly gave up every second-round pick they could find, but that’s fine. This team is trying to win a title. Jordan Nwora was about out of time on his “he’s interesting” clock in Milwaukee, and removing George Hill from Mike Budenholzer binkie rotation is addition by subtraction.

Minnesota Timberwolves 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mike Conley, three second-round picks. Traded D’Angelo Russell.

In a vacuum, D’Angelo Russell is a better player than Mike Conley. But basketball isn’t played in a vacuum. Fit matters and Russell’s fit with the Wolves had worn thin. He needs a new contract and he needs the ball a lot. On a team that is getting increasingly expensive, swapping Russell for Conley works on the cap sheet. It should work on the court too, especially when Karl-Anthony Towns is back. Conley will stabilize and organize things and make sure everyone gets to eat. Yes, even Rudy Gobert.

New Orleans Pelicans 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Josh Richardson. Traded Devonte’ Graham, four second-round picks.

This move is a win on the floor and on the cap sheet for the Pelicans. They needed to add some size to their backcourt, especially with Dyson Daniels currently injured. Graham had slipped out of the rotation, in part because New Orleans couldn’t play him with C.J. McCollum and Jose Alvarado. Richardson won’t have that issue. He can also play at the three, which is important given the rash of injuries the Pelicans keep running into. And clearing Graham’s long-term money off the books is good work too, given he no longer had a real place on this roster.

New York Knicks 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Josh Hart. Traded Ryan Arcidiacono, Svi Mykhailiuk, Cam Reddish, one lottery-protected first-round pick.

The Knicks turned three non-rotation players into a good rotation player. It cost them a protected pick, but that’s fine. Hart gives Tom Thibodeau a bit more size from his reserve group. Look for Immanuel Quickley to move into the on-ball role with Hart taking the backup wing minutes. Hart’s rugged style is a great fit for Thib’s rotation too. Now, if he’d only just start shooting the ball again…

Oklahoma City Thunder 

Status: Losers (but barely)

The moves: Acquired Justin Jackson, Dario Saric, three second-round picks. Traded Darius Bazley, Mike Muscala.

The writing has been on the wall for Darius Bazley in Oklahoma City for months now. Even with a lot of injuries in the frontcourt, Bazley is among the last guys Mark Daigneault turns to for minutes. He wasn’t going to be re-signed this summer either. Muscala is a real loss though. He’s been very quietly effective for the Thunder for years now. And the OKC frontcourt is really thin due to some long-term injuries. That’s why it’s no lock that the Thunder will buy out Dario Saric. He should get a chance to play. Adding three second-round picks is solid work, but did Sam Presti really need more picks? It’s probably all fine, but losing Muscala is a real blow for a team that’s played better than expected this season.

Orlando Magic 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Patrick Beverley, one second-round pick. Traded Mo Bamba.

The Magic sold low on a former top-5 pick, but it was beyond time. Once Orlando got healthy, Mo Bamba wasn’t in the rotation. He’s flashed, but five years of flashes not turning into consistent production isn’t enough to keep a guy around. Beverley will get bought out, so this was all about getting a pick. Mission accomplished, even if it’s nothing to get really excited about.

Philadelphia 76ers 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Jalen McDaniels, two second-round picks. Traded Matisse Thybulle, one second-round pick.

The Sixers got better and bigger. Adding a wing was something Philadelphia needed to do and McDaniels was a nice, cost-effective addition. He’s been an inconsistent shooter, but that’s better than Matisse Thybulle who was a non-shooter. Philadelphia also go out of the tax, which is really important for a team that projects to be deep into the tax next season. That’ll be added to, if they re-sign McDaniels in unrestricted free agency.

Phoenix Suns 

Status: Winners (today), Losers (tomorrow, maybe?)

The moves: Acquired Darius Bazley, Kevin Durant, T.J. Warren. Traded Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Cam Johnson, Dario Saric, four first-round picks, one first-round pick swap, one second-round pick.

The Suns are all-in. Kevin Durant is the biggest start to change teams at the trade deadline in years. He, almost alone, can lift Phoenix back into title contention. T.J. Warren will also help quite a bit off the bench for the Suns. Bazley is a flyer and a fine one. The downside? Some of these picks will assuredly come long after Durant and Chris Paul have set off for retirement. But that’s a problem for another day. Today, the Suns are back in the Finals mix.

Portland Trail Blazers 

Status: Losers

The moves: Acquired Ryan Arcidiacono, Kevin Knox, Cam Reddish, Matisse Thybulle, one lottery-protected first-round pick, five second-round picks. Traded Josh Hart, Gary Payton II, two second-round picks.

Shrug. What is Portland doing? Josh Hart is good, even if he’s mysteriously become a non-shooter. Gary Payton II was reportedly unhappy with the Blazers, so it was probably best to move on. But Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle now enter a crowded mix that already features Anfernee Simons, Nassir Little and Shaedon Sharpe. What exactly is the goal? Even if Reddish and/or Thybulle finally pop (not a good bet, by the way) they are both free agents this summer. The Trail Blazers probably aren’t significantly worse, but they certainly aren’t any better.

Sacramento Kings 

Status: Losers (but not too harshly!)

The moves: Acquired Kessler Edwards. Traded draft rights to David Michineau.

We aren’t going to bag on the Kings. They mostly stood pat. Kessler Edwards is a decent flyer for them. Maybe he pops, maybe he doesn’t. But Sacramento could, and probably should, have done something to upgrade their rotation. They’re so close to breaking the playoff drought. They had well over $20 million in non-rotation-player salary just sitting there. They could have moved a draft pick or two. Maybe the prices were simply too high. And Sacramento shouldn’t break up even a little bit of their core. But, man, they could have really pushed things closer to the playoffs with a move or two.

San Antonio Spurs 

Status: Push (probably?)

The moves: Acquired Khem Birch, Dewayne Dedmon, Devonte’ Graham, one first-round pick, seven second-round picks. Traded Jakob Poeltl, Josh Richardson.

Getting a whole bunch of draft picks for Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson seems pretty good. But the Spurs did rent out a bunch of cap space this year (whatever, they weren’t close to the salary floor anyway), but also $19 million in cap space for next year (that’s not great) to get those picks. Graham will help some, as San Antonio is desperately thin at point guard. Birch will probably be fine too. But it feels like the Spurs might have been able to do more with their cap space. Also, why is Doug McDermott still around? Shooting on a bad team is like having a good closer on a bad baseball team: It’s a luxury you don’t really need.

Toronto Raptors 

Status: Losers 

The moves: Acquired Jakob Poeltl. Traded Khem Birch, one first-round pick, two second-round picks.

Getting Jakob Poeltl is fine. He’s a good player. Toronto should be trusted to sign him to a reasonable contract. But when that’s all you do, that’s not great. The Raptors were never going to blow it up, but keeping all of their main guys feels like a missed opportunity. The roster fits aren’t any less confusing after getting Poeltl either. And they still don’t have any shooting. This feels like an unfinished project, but the semester over and we don’t give out incompletes.

Utah Jazz 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Damian Jones, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Russell Westbrook, one first-round pick. Traded Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Malik Beasley, Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt, two second-round picks.

The Jazz didn’t do bad, but this isn’t the return they were hoping for. After months of saying they could get a first for each of Mike Conley, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt, they didn’t. That’s disappointing. None of the players the Jazz acquired will likely do anything of consequence in Utah. Maybe Juan Toscano-Anderson can find some minutes. So, it’s really one pick for collection of pretty good players. That pick could be a pretty good one. It’s just not what was hoped for.

Washington Wizards 

Status: Push (maybe?)

The moves: None.

Washington didn’t do anything after the Rui Hachimura. That’s probably fine. They seem to like the guys they have. This could all go sideways if Kyle Kuzma leaves for nothing this summer, or if he gets overpaid. But for now, it’s probably fine for the Wizards, who remain stuck in the middle, forever and always.

Michael GinnittiFebruary 09, 2023

The Phoenix Suns stole the spotlight early Thursday morning, acquiring All-NBA forward Kevin Durant from the Brooklyn Nets in a 5 player, 5 pick trade, vastly changing the landscape of both the East & West conferences.

Phoenix Acquires

Kevin Durant (F, 34)
Durant is in year one of a 4 year, $194.2M contract. He brings a $44.1M cap hit with him to the Suns for the remainder of 2022-23, $10M more than any other rostered Phoenix player. Before his injury, Durant was averaging 29.7 points, 5 assists, and 6 rebounds per game.

T.J. Warren (F, 29)
Warren brings a 1 year veteran minimum contract over to Phoenix, including a $1.83M cap hit for the remainder of the season. His usage has been cut in half this season as a role player for Brooklyn, but that may change with a reshuffled Suns’ lineup. He’s slated for unrestricted free agency this July.

Brooklyn Acquires

Mikal Bridges (F, 26)
Bridges is in year one of a 4 year, $90.9M contract, including a $21M cap hit for the 2022-23 season. He’s been posting career-highs across the board to date, to the tune of 17.2 points, 3.5 assists, and 4.3 boards per game, and should have no trouble maintaining his current 36+ minutes per game for Brooklyn.

Cam Johnson (F, 26)
Johnson is finishing off the final year of his rookie contract on a $5.8M cap hit, with restricted free agency ahead of him this summer. He reportedly turned down a 4 year, $68M extension offer from Phoenix last fall, but a knee injury has limited his action to just 17 games thus far since. His financial future will very much be defined by how his role & subsequent production can stabilize with Brooklyn over the next four months.

Jae Crowder (F, 32)
Crowder becomes the ghost player in this move, as he’s been voluntarily away from the Suns, awaiting a trade out of Phoenix. He’ll have a role in Brooklyn (if he wants one), as the Nets currently sit 29th in the league in rebounds and paint possession production. Crowder brings an expiring $10.1M cap hit with him to Brooklyn, with unrestricted free agency ahead of him this July.

Four Unprotected First Round Picks
Phoenix has agreed to send Brooklyn unprotected first round picks in 2023, 2025, 2027, & 2029, while also offering up a 1st round pick swap in 2028 (if applicable).

A four unprotected pick trade is unprecedented, though it aligns with the recent blockbuster moves we’ve seen in past months. Rudy Gobert’s move to Minnesota included 4 first round picks plus a pick swap, but only two of the four were unprotected. Donovan Mitchell’s move to Cleveland included 3 first round picks (all unprotected) plus two pick swaps.

The last trade on record that included four unprotected picks was Paul George's move from OKC to the Clippers. The Thunder acquired Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari a 2021 unprotected 1st, a 2022 unprotected 1st, a 2023 protected 1st, a 2023 swap, a 2024 unprotected 1st, a 2025 swap, and a 2026 unprotected 1st. 

The Trade Financials

On its surface, Brooklyn acquired $37,071,699 of cap for the 2022-23 season, but sent out $45,960,935 to Phoenix with this move, an $8.88M savings for the Nets.

But it’s the tax numbers that really pop out here:
In adding that $8.8M of salary, the Phoenix Suns’ projected tax bill for 2022-23 increased from $35.5M, to $67.6M. Their 2023-24 tax space dwindled down to a projected $2.5M.

Brooklyn on the other hand lowered its projected tax bill for this season down from $71.7M to $38.5M, and now sit with about $16.5M of tax space for the 2023-24 season.

2022-23 Odds

The Suns entered the trade deadline as +1900 odds to win the NBA Championship this season. That number has dropped to +4600 as of Thursday. Kevin Durant will do that.

The Nets entered the trade deadline as +750 odds to win the NBA Championship this season. That number has soared to +10,000 as of Thursday. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant will do that.

Keith SmithFebruary 09, 2023

The Los Angeles Lakers didn’t get Kyrie Irving. Instead, the Lakers filled out three rotation spots in a single trade. The deal involves the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Utah Jazz, and features eight players, a protected first-round pick and three second-round picks.

Here are the details:

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers searched for months for a taker in a deal involving Russell Westbrook. There were reports that they got close to a trade with the Utah Jazz before the season. Early-season rumors featured talks of a deal with the Indiana Pacers. This past week had the Lakers linked to the Brooklyn Nets for Kyrie Irving.

In the end, Los Angeles turned Westbrook and one of their two tradable first-round picks into a likely starting point guard, top reserve wing and top reserve big. And the Lakers sacrificed precious little flexibility beyond this season to do so.

If the Lakers wanted to go the 2023 cap space route, they can still create around $30 million in space. But that plan is probably out the window, as Los Angeles has rebuilt their depth with two pre-deadline deals. Malik Beasley and the previously acquired Rui Hachimura are long-term keepers. Jarred Vanderbilt should be too. We’ll see what happens with D’Angelo Russell, but he’s got a great chance to stick around too. Keep an eye on a potential two-year extension for Russell with the Lakers, worth up to $67.5 million.

Russell returns back to his first NBA home, but he’s a different player this time around. Russell is a confident shooter and scorer and a far better playmaker than when he left Los Angeles six years ago. He should eventually supplant Dennis Schroder in the Lakers starting lineup. That will give the Lakers a better shooter and a better secondary playmaker alongside LeBron James.

Beasley comes in as a pure sniper off the bench. He’s already knocked down 169 three-pointers this season. That’s almost twice as many as any current Laker. There’s some overlap with Beasley and Lonnie Walker IV, but they should be able to play some minutes together. Beasley does the vast majority of his work around the arc, while Walker likes to get into the midrange areas and into the paint.

In Vanderbilt, the Lakers get the third big they’ve been looking for all season. He’ll likely come off the bench, but it’s a good bet Vanderbilt will play plenty with James and Anthony Davis in bigger frontcourt alignments. Provided he plays enough, Vanderbilt should improve on LA’s middle-of-the-pack rebounding, while giving them some solid finishing and good passing from either big position.

By adding Russell, Beasley and Vanderbilt, along with Hachimura a couple of weeks ago, the Lakers have achieved the roster balance they’ve lacked the last two seasons. They’re probably still a little guard-heavy, but not like they were before. Darvin Ham can play a lot of different ways now, and that’s not something he could do before these trades. In addition, there should be enough depth to allow James and Davis to get the rest they need in games, and possibly even a full day off, if necessary.

Rob Pelinka increased the Lakers tax bill by a minimal amount in these two deals. Pelinka did a great job to get a top-4 protection on the 2027 first-round pick he’s sending to Utah. Reports are that if the Lakers somehow keep that pick, it converts into an immediate second-round pick. That allows the Lakers to still trade the 2029 pick if they find another deal they like down the line.

These moves don’t make the Lakers into immediate title contenders. That very much remains a stretch goal. But Los Angeles is now positioned to make a real run in the Play-In Tournament. If they can get to the playoffs, no top seed is going to want the “reward” of a seven-game series with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and a team with rebuilt depth.

We’ve been waiting for the Lakers to make that all-in push. Even if it doesn’t work out perfectly, you can’t say they didn’t try. And that’s worth something all by itself.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves portion of this trade is probably the most confusing. But if you dig a little deeper, this was a trade about stability and handing even more of the reins to Anthony Edwards.

Mike Conley isn’t as good as D’Angelo Russell, but he’s cheaper. Especially when you factor in that Russell needs a new contract after the season. More importantly, Conley helps as a culture-setter for a locker room that lost some of that when they traded away Patrick Beverley.

Conley will get the Wolves into their sets, and then he’ll happily float off-ball, while Edwards, and eventually Karl-Anthony Towns, pile up the usage. When Edwards sits, Chris Finch can go to the Conley-Rudy Gobert pick-and-roll sets that Quin Snyder used with regularity in Utah.

It’s likely Minnesota will end up keeping Conley next season and fully guaranteeing his deal for $24.4 million (it’s already guaranteed for $14.3 million). Then, when Town’s four-year, $224 million extension and Edwards’ likely five-year max deal kick in with the start of the 2024-25 season, Conley will be off the books.

The Timberwolves have played better in recent weeks. They’re above .500 now and still in range of getting into the top-6 in the Western Conference, if not making a run at homecourt advantage. This trade should help keep them stable when Towns returns. Before this trade, working Towns back into the lineup, with Edwards and Russell being the primary guys, could have been very messy. Conley will help make sure that’s an easy transition, by keeping Edwards the main focus, while making sure the big men get to eat too.

Utah Jazz

It took months longer than expected, but the Jazz have finally turned towards rebuilding. A far better-than-expected start had everyone questioning if Utah would even go down this road. But Danny Ainge isn’t one for half measures. Once he has a direction, he’s going to keep it.

The Jazz have extreme flexibility moving forward. They can create over $60 million in cap space this coming offseason. And they’ve added 15 additional draft picks through 2029 over the series of trades dating back to last summer. And that’s all while having new franchise cornerstones Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Ochai Agbaji, and maybe Collin Sexton, all signed to long-term deals.

Russell Westbrook is already reportedly working on a buyout agreement. Damian Jones is unlikely to have any sort of future with Utah either. Juan Toscano-Anderson is a nice flyer for a team that is trying to build a new culture. He should fit in nicely with the “go to work” style that Will Hardy is stressing with his young team.

It’s important to note that Ainge might not be done yet, either. Jordan Clarkson could still be traded. Or he could be extended. That’s a pretty fluid situation. Kelly Olynyk could fetch a minor asset or two. And if anyone is interested in picking up Rudy Gay or Talen Horton-Tucker, that would remove their player options from the mix for next season, and only increase Utah’s cap space potential.

The Jazz have already won far too many games to catch the Rockets, Spurs, Pistons or Hornets. But falling down the fifth-best NBA Draft Lottery odds is well within range. A high pick this year, solid talent in place on the roster, a great young coach, tons of cap space and a million extra draft picks. We’ve seen this movie before. And it ends with Danny Ainge building a multi-year title contender.

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2023

The 2023 NBA trade deadline is at 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, February 9. That means teams are facing their last window to make significant upgrades to their roster. But there’s one more transaction window after the trade deadline has come and gone.

The buyout market has become the trade deadline’s less glamorous cousin. The big moves are done at the deadline, but there are always a handful more deals to come through the end of February.

Following the February 9 trade deadline, the next big date to watch is March 1. Players waived after March 1 are not eligible to play in that season’s playoffs. Effectively, that’s the last day for playoff teams to add anyone who is on another team’s roster after the trade deadline.

The way this happens is that the player is waived by his current team. Upon clearing waivers, which the vast majority of players do, they become a free agent. In many of these cases, players and their former team will come to an agreement to buy out the remainder of their contract. This means the player gives back some portion of their guaranteed salary in order to become a free agent.

Sometimes these buyouts occur immediately on the heels of the trade deadline and the player clears waivers by the end of the weekend. For others, the buyout negotiations may run through the All-Star break and get completed before the end of the month. But in almost all cases, any significant buyouts will occur by March 1, to allow that player to remain playoff-eligible.

Here are some key players to keep an on eye on for the 2023 buyout market. In most cases, these are veterans on an expiring contract. Some may have some salary that goes into next season, and it’s very rare for a deal running more than two seasons to be bought out. In addition, most of these players are either out of their team’s rotation, or they are blocking minutes for a younger player to get into their team’s rotation. Or their teams are expected to make other changes before the deadline, which will push them even further to the backend of the roster.

Russell Westbrook (Jazz, PG, 34)

The Jazz are going to buy out Russell Westbrook. It's just a matter of how quickly and how much he'll give back. After that, Westbrook will find a new home fairly quickly. He's not the inevitable triple-double machine he once was, but Westbrook adapted to playing a complementary role quite well with the Lakers. He'll do the same for another contender for the playoff run. Maybe even one right down the hall from the Lakers in the building they share.

Patrick Beverley (Magic, PG, 34)

(UPDATE: Waived by Orlando, 2/12/23)

Beverley is highly likely to be bought out by the Orlando Magic, following a trade that sent Mo Bamba to Los Angeles Lakers. Look for Beverley to be highly sought after by contenders who need a defensive-minded guard. Because he's been with a third (and now fourth) team, since the Minnesota Timberwolves traded Beverley, don't be surprised if he lands back there eventually. 

Danny Green (Rockets, SG, 35)

(UPDATE: Waived and agreed to buyout with Houston, 2/12/23)

Green worked so hard to get back with the Memphis Grizzlies, only to be dealt to the rebuilding Houston Rockets. Green will very likely get bought out. His size, shooting, defense and championship experience may make him the most prized player on the buyout market. Look for every contender to at least check in on Green. He'll be on a playoff roster for sure.

Reggie Jackson (Hornets, PG, 32)

(UPDATE: Waived and agreed to buyout with Charlotte, 2/12/23)

Sounds like the Hornets are going to set Jackson free after acquiring him for Mason Plumlee. With so many guards already in the fold, that makes sense from the Hornets perspective. Jackson should catch on somewhere, but it might take a bit. Outside of his former team, the LA Clippers, no one seems to have a huge need at point guard right now. Jackson may be able to give it a couple of weeks and see which contender can offer him the biggest role.

Will Barton (Wizards, SG, 32)

Barton is owed $14,375,000 from Washington for this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he gave some of that back to catch on with a contender. Outside of a few games here and there over the last month, Barton is completely out of the Wizards rotation. If he’s not traded, Barton is a prime buyout candidate, and he’ll help a contender in need of bench scoring.

Khem Birch (Spurs, C, 30)

Birch hadn’t play in a game in over a month for Toronto, despite being active every night. That could change with the Spurs, who now have plenty of center minutes available. A buyout for the big man would be a bit tricky, because he’s owed $6.7 million this season and $6.9 million for next season. San Antonio took on some money into next season already, so eating a little more probably isn’t a big deal. But don’t expect it.

Dewayne Dedmon (Spurs, C, 33)

(UPDATE: Waived and agreed to buyout with San Antonio, 2/9/23)

The Spurs didn’t acquire Dedmon to play for them. It’s unlikely he’ll even report to the team. San Antonio did that deal to get a second-round pick for eating some salary. Dedmon probably won’t be a buyout, as much as he’ll be a straight waiver. But he’ll still be available for contenders looking for a backup center. The real question is how much Dedmon has left in the tank. The Heat haven’t had much size behind Bam Adebayo, and Dedmon couldn’t crack their rotation. He might be cooked.

Goran Dragic (Bulls, PG, 36)

Dragic is clearly nearing the end of a long career, but he can still play. Despite being caught up in an overstuffed backcourt, he’s given the Bulls solid minutes. If Chicago pivots to selling, and Dragic isn’t traded, there’s a good bet he’ll be waived to let the veteran guard join a contender.

Andre Drummond (Bulls, C, 29)

Sticking in Chicago, but in the frontcourt, we have Drummond. He’s in a weird spot. Sometimes he plays, sometimes he doesn’t. When he does play, Drummond is the same guy he’s always been: terrific rebounder, solid enough finisher and mostly a mess on defense. The one challenge for a buyout for Drummond? He’s owed $3.4 million on a player option for next season. Unless he really wants to hit free agency now, the Bulls would be on the hook for some additional dead money next year.

Bryn Forbes (Timberwolves, SG, 29)

Forbes rarely plays for the Wolves. They’ve got a bunch of guards in front of him, and they’re reportedly interested in adding another backcourt player before the deadline. If so, Forbes is a good candidate to be waived. Should that happen, a contender on the lookout for some shooting off their bench could bring Forbes in for the stretch run.

Justin Holiday (Rockets, SG, 33)

(UPDATE: Waived by Houston, 2/13/23)

It’s not really clear what the Rockets plans are, but they’re probably going to move on from Holiday. Holiday’s shooting has dipped and around the first of the year, he was replaced in the Hawks rotation by rookie A.J. Griffin. Let’s see what Houston’s appetite is for dead money, as they’re definitely moving from John Wall and probably Danny Green.

Serge Ibaka (Pacers, C, 33)

(Updated: Waived by Indiana, 2/22/23)

Ibaka wasn’t traded to the Pacers to play for them. They’ll likely straight waive the veteran big man. Whether or not a contender signs Ibaka is another question. He hasn’t played much in the last year or so, and he hasn’t looked very good when he has seen minutes.

Furkan Korkmaz (76ers, SG, 25)

Korkmaz has asked for a trade, and that’s far more likely than a buyout from the Sixers. But if Korkmaz was to sent to a team in a salary-dump deal, then the chances of a buyout go way up. He’s another guy with money into next season ($5.4 million), so that’s a factor here. If set free, Korkmaz could bring some shooting to a contender’s bench.

Alex Len (Kings, C, 29)

Len has barely played this season, but when we last saw him, he looked OK. The Kings recently took Kessler Edwards into their final roster spot. If Len’s expiring $3.9 million salary can’t be used as salary-matching in a deal, there’s a good chance he’ll get waived to open up a roster spot. He’s 29 years old and very much an old-school center, but could be worth a flyer for a contender with depth issues up front.

Kevin Love (Cavaliers, PF, 34)

This one is surprising, but there’s something going on with Love and the Cavs. He got hurt, but after getting healthy (or at least healthy-ish), Cleveland dropped him from their rotation. Love hasn’t shot it well this year, and he’s mostly a stretch 5 now, so he’s not returning anywhere near the value of his $28.9 million contract. But the Cavaliers got caught without viable frontcourt depth at the end of last season. They’ll probably just ride out Love’s deal. However, if the veteran wants to play, this is a situation to keep an eye on.

Nerlens Noel (Pistons, C, 28)

We’re at the annual “Nerlens Noel is available!” part of the NBA calendar. Noel isn’t a part of the Pistons present or their future. His $9.2 million contract for this season is probably just a bit to big to be tradable. That means Detroit will probably work a buyout with Noel and let him move on after they exhaust all trade options before Thursday’s deadline.

Kelly Olynyk (Jazz, PF, 31)

The Jazz are far more likely to trade Olynyk than they are to buy him out, but the second is somewhat of a possibility. With a pretty light guarantee next season, it’s possible that Olynyk decides he’d rather finish the year with a contender. His ability to space the floor, pass and play better-than-you-think defense would put him at the top of a lot of lists. But Olynyk’s $12.8 million salary is one Utah should be able to move without much worry if they want.

Derrick Rose (Knicks, PG ,34)

Rose hasn’t played in over a month. When we saw him earlier this season, he lacked even the limited post-injuries burst he once had and he was struggling to knock down jumpers. New York is reportedly working with Rose on finding him a new team. If that doesn’t happen, the roster spot might be more valuable to the Knicks than Rose on the bench. If there’s a buyout, some team will convince themselves to take one last shot on the 14-year veteran.

Terrence Ross (Magic, SG, 32)

(UPDATE: Waived and agreed to buyout with Orlando, 2/12/23)

If we hadn’t already used the joke on Nerlens Noel, we’d use the “Terrence Ross is available!” joke here. We’re on trade deadline three of Ross being available, and it’s hard to see going 3-for-3 on deadlines passing without him being traded. Ross has rarely played since Orlando got healthy. But he can still provide points in a flurry off a bench. If the Magic don’t trade him, it’s hard to see why they wouldn’t buy him out and let Ross catch on with a contender.

John Wall (Rockets, PG, 32)

(UPDATE: Waived by Houston, 2/12/23)

The Rockets and Wall are definitely going to go their separate ways...again. When you’re already carrying over $40 million in dead money for a guy, what’s $6 million or so more? Unlike the first buyout, this one might not even end up with Wall giving any money back. Much like Derrick Rose, the real question is: How much can Wall even help a contender?

Thaddeus Young (Raptors, PF, 34)

The entire Toronto roster is in flux ahead of the deadline. No one but Scottie Barnes and maybe Pascal Siakam seem like safe bets to remain Raptors come Thursday afternoon. Young could be dealt, as he’s on a pseudo-expiring deal with only $1 million of his $8.1 million deal guaranteed for next season. If he’s not traded, Toronto could decide to move on and buy out Young and let him finish up the year with a team trying to make a playoff run.

Keith SmithFebruary 05, 2023

With all due respect to Rui Hachimura and Noah Vonleh, we have our first big trade ahead of the 2023 NBA trade deadline. Roughly two days after requesting a trade from the Brooklyn Nets, Kyrie Irving is being sent to the Dallas Mavericks. Here are the particulars:

  • Dallas acquires: Kyrie Irving, Markieff Morris
  • Brooklyn acquires: Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, 2029 Dallas first-round pick, 2027 Dallas second-round pick, 2029 Dallas second-round pick (no protections on any of the picks)
  • Brooklyn creates: $5.4 million Traded Player Exception (for Kyrie Irving) and $1.8 million Traded Player Exception (for Markieff Morris)

This is a massive deal with league-wide ramifications. Let’s break it down!

Dallas Mavericks

In a trade involving a superstar, it’s generally the team that ends up with said superstar who wins the trade. For Dallas, because that superstar is Kyrie Irving, there is a good deal of risk attached.

Irving is supremely talented. He’s right up there with the best scoring point guards in the league. Irving is also a more willing passer than he’s generally given credit for. And at the end of close games, Dallas now has a second option when teams load to Luka Doncic, which they’ve lacked without Jalen Brunson.

However, before we get to the off-court risks, there are some on-court worries for the Mavericks. Doncic is currently captaining arguably the most heliocentric offensive ship in the NBA. If Irving comes in and plays Mr. Spock to Doncic’s Captain Kirk, Dallas will be in good shape. If Irving and Doncic can’t mesh together, it’ll be like when an Android user joins the group text with a bunch of Apple users. It still works, but it’s a little more complicated, messier than anyone really likes and no one is really happy they’re in there.

The Dallas defense has now lost their best big wing defender. Lineups featuring Doncic, Irving and Christian Wood will have to be scoring monsters, because they’ll probably hand a lot of points back to the opponent. But it’s the dominant offensive pairing of Doncic and Irving that the Mavs are betting on making up for any defensive deficiencies.

Then you get to the off-court challenges…and there are many.

Sticking to the financials, the Mavericks are limited to offering Irving a two-year, roughly $80 million extension. That’s pretty far under his market value, even with question marks about his fit, age, injury history and off-court worries. The reason Dallas is limited in what they can offer now, is that for six months following a trade, a player can’t extend beyond the parameters allowed in an extend-and-trade deal, which are two years and 5% raises.

That means Irving will be a free agent this summer. The Mavs inherit his Bird rights, so they’ll be able to pay Irving whatever they can agree to. Irving and his camp will likely start out asking for a four-year, $210 million contract, if not the full five-year, $272 million maximum deal Irving will be eligible for.

It’s here where we should pause to say the Nets could have offered Irving something approaching that four-year number in an extension. Their reluctance to do so is what reportedly sparked Irving to request a trade in the first place. Brooklyn reportedly wanted some levels of protections in the deal that Irving found insulting.

The question facing Mavericks governor Mark Cuban and general manager Nico Harrison is not only how much they are willing to pay Irving, but how long they are willing to sign on to Irving for? On talent alone, Irving is worth a deal that averages north of $50 million per season. That true even as he’s turning 31 years old at the end of March.

But Irving has missed considerable time over the last eight seasons. Only in the 2016-17 season, his last with the Cleveland Cavaliers, has Irving played as many as 70 games. In four years with the Nets, he logged game counts of 20, 54, 29 and 40.

There’s a lengthy injury history with Irving that includes knee injuries and shoulder injuries. On top of that, he missed considerable games during the pandemic seasons due to non-compliance with vaccination requirements. And this season, Irving served an eight-game suspension after sharing a link to an antisemitic film.

Whether it’s injuries or other very avoidable off-court issues, Irving is a good bet to miss considerable time. That’s unlikely to improve as he approaches his mid-30s. That makes locking into a long-term, maximum contract something the Nets were unwilling to do. Will Dallas? That’s a question we’ll answer this summer…maybe.

Because Irving is now highly likely to be an unrestricted free agent this summer, he could just up and leave town. It’s not like Irving hasn’t previously changed his mind after stating how happy he was to be with a team…twice.

The Markieff Morris portion of this trade was likely a throw-in for Brooklyn to save some tax money. The Nets don’t have an open roster spot, so doing a 2-for-1 deal would have meant eating a guaranteed salary. Morris has fallen to the bottom of the Nets rotation, and he’s unlikely to have any real impact in a crowded Mavs frontcourt either.

Dallas took on about $28.7 million in additional taxes and penalties in this deal. If they re-sign Irving to anything approaching a max deal this summer, they’ll likely be a long-term taxpayer.

On last thing to note for the Mavericks side: If Irving were to leave, Dallas could create in the range of $30 million in cap space this summer. If nothing else, they cleared up some multi-year salary obligations in the form of Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith. But we won’t pretend like those were exactly bad contracts worth giving up even a single first-round pick to shed. The Mavs could have worked around them easily enough.

Brooklyn Nets

For the Nets, they are now free of the headache that can come from being Kyrie Irving’s employer. It’s kind of like eating a ton of chicken wings. It’s awesome for part of the time, but then you have saucy and sticky fingers, maybe the dogs try to get into the bones, and you question if the awesome part was even worth it while fighting off some heartburn later.

Brooklyn had precious little leverage here. Irving made it clear on Friday afternoon that he was leaving this summer without an extension. He then made it clear by Sunday morning that he was prepared to never play another game for the Nets. Given his upcoming free agent status, and all the issues we laid out in the Mavericks portion of this analysis, Irving wasn’t exactly a sterling trade commodity.

Yet, the Nets did OK here. Dinwiddie gives them a veteran point guard with whom the organization has a ton of familiarity. Finney-Smith is another big wing defender and a pretty good off-ball shooter and cutter. And he’s on a terrific value contract.

Jacque Vaughn can now deploy defensive lineups that feature four of Finney-Smith, Royce O’Neale, Nic Claxton, Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons, and maybe even all five for stretches of games. Good luck finding much scoring space against those groups.

On the court, Brooklyn should be ok. The ceiling is lower for sure. The Nets probably aren’t title contenders anymore, even if everything goes great. The offensive production just won’t be there against the best teams. But it’s questionable if the floor even dropped an inch, given Irving’s general unreliability.

The big question for the Nets: What does Kevin Durant want to do now? Does he reissue his trade request from the summertime? Is he content to play things out and see what Brooklyn general manager Sean Marks does next? There are already reports that the Phoenix Suns are prepared to make another run at Durant, should become available via trade. And it’s a good bet Phoenix isn’t the only team having the “What’s our best offer for KD?” conversation in NBA front offices today.

Brooklyn saved a considerable chunk of change in this trade. They’ll see their tax-plus-penalties bill drop by about $26.5 million. That’s nothing to sneeze at for a team that has carried a considerable salary and tax outlay the last few seasons.

On top of that, the Nets did really well to get such a late pick from the Mavericks. In 2029, Dallas could be in Year 2 or 3 of a post-Luka Doncic rebuild. Who knows what the Mavs will look like then? And the two seconds are kind of sprinkles on top of a good-but-not-great sundae.

The Rest of the NBA

This trade has a pretty wide fallout radius. The Los Angeles Lakers, LA Clippers and Phoenix Suns were all reportedly interested in trading for Kyrie Irving. The Lakers were even getting some fairly strong public pressure put on them from LeBron James to get a deal done. And reports early on Sunday were that the Clippers had sent the Nets a “strong offer”.

Now, those teams have to pivot. The Lakers need to upgrade their depth and, as they have since the summer, are shopping Russell Westbrook and one or both of their tradable first-round picks. They’ll do something beyond just the Rui Hachimura deal.

The Clippers remain on the hunt for a point guard. Fred VanVleet? Kyle Lowry? Mike Conley? LA seems like a good bet to come away with someone. They just won’t have the star upside of Irving.

The Suns are already known to be ready to talk Kevin Durant trades again. Failing that, they’ll move Jae Crowder and who know what else to retool their roster.

As for the 25 NBA teams we didn’t mention yet, the market is now semi-set. Because the Nets were in a tough spot with Irving, don’t expect the Toronto Raptors to come off the big asking price they’ve set for OG Anunoby, for example. Masai Ujiri will sit back and calmly explain he’s still got the leverage, whereas Sean Marks had little.

But things should start to get moving now. One major domino, if an unexpected one, has fallen. There are some others that are wobbling and ready to start a chain reaction around the league. There’s no overwhelming favorite to win the title. That means Dallas and Brooklyn may have done a deal that kicks off an arms race that won’t culminate until 3:00 PM Eastern on Thursday, February 9 when the NBA trade deadline is in the rearview mirror and rosters are set for the stretch run. Well…until buyout season wraps up a few weeks later!

Michael GinnittiFebruary 05, 2023

The NBA announced suspensions for 3 players stemming from the on-court altercations during Friday night’s Magic, Timberwolves game.

Magic Center Mo Bamba will miss the next four games forfeiting $284,138 in 2022-23 salary. The 24-year-old holds a non-guaranteed $10.3M salary through next season, and is a fringe trade candidate this coming week.The 4 game suspension is second only to Kyrie Irving’s 8 games missed due to his promotion of anti semitic ideals.

Timberwolves’ Guard Austin Rivers will miss three games, forfeiting $60,121 in 2022-23 salary. He’s on an expiring contract with Minnesota, set for unrestricted free agency this July.

Magic Guard Jalen Suggs has been suspended one game, forfeiting $47,740 in 2022-23 salary. The 21 year old holds a guaranteed $7.25M salary next season, then a club option for 2024-25.

Additionally, Minnesota’s Jaden McDaniels was tagged with a $20,000 fine for his role.

All combined, the Orlando Magic free up $165,939 of tax this season, while the T-Wolves free up around $30,000.

Track all NBA Fines & Suspension infractions here.

Scott AllenFebruary 02, 2023

The NBA All-Star rosters have been selected. Four players have received bonuses for their selection to the All-Star team: Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle, and Domantas Sabonis. Player cap and tax salaries will not be altered until the conclusion of the regular season and their subsequent salaries remaining in their current contracts will now be deemed as likely to be earned, increasing those salaries where applicable. 

Jalyen Brown, BOS

Brown will earn $1.55 million for being selected as an All-Star reserve if he ends up playing 65 games this season. This incentive was already deemed likely to be earned for the 2022-23 season and will remain likely to be earned for the 2023-24 season.

Brown currently has played 46 games for Boston with 30 games remaining on the schedule.

Cap/Tax Implications: As of right now no change; cap and tax salaries for the 2022-23 season will remain the same.

Kevin Durant, BKN

Durant has an All-Star incentive in his contract but it is grouped with the Nets making the playoffs, Nets winning at least 43 games and Durant appearing in at least 39 games. If any of these were to be true the incentive is deemed likely to be earned, which it already is.

Cap/Tax Implications: No change; cap and tax salaries for the 2022-23 season will remain the same.

Jrue Holiday, MIL

Holiday earns $324,000 for being selected as an All-Star reserve. This bonus in now deemed likely to be earned for the 2023-24 season. Holiday is under contract through the 2024-25 season, but could be a free agent after the 2023-24 season if he were to decline his $36 million Player Option. 

Cap/Tax Implications: Cap and tax salaries for the 2022-23 season will be updated at the conclusion of the regular season.

Julius Randle, NYK

Randle earns $1,188,000 for being selected as an All-Star reserve. This incentive was already deemed likely to be earned for the 2022-23 season and will remain as likely for the the 2023-24 season. 

Cap/Tax Implications: Cap and tax salaries for the 2022-23 season will be updated at the conclusion of the regular season.

Domantas Sabonis, SAC

Sabonis earns $1.3 million for being selected as an All-Star reserve. He last earned an All-Star spot in 2020-21 season. This is now deemed as likely for the 2023-24 season which will increase his cap hit from $19.4 million to $20.7 million, which will be the last year of his current 4 year $74.9 million contract.

Cap/Tax Implications: Cap and tax salaries for the 2022-23 season will be updated at the conclusion of the regular season.

Keith SmithJanuary 30, 2023

The NBA is in a weird place  with less than two weeks or so out from the trade deadline on February 9. Only five teams (the Orlando Magic joined this list over the weekend) teams in the entire league are more than three games out of a spot in the Play-In Tournament. In the Western Conference, only the Houston Rockets and San Antonio spurs have no realistic shot at making the postseason.

That’s caused the trade market to be a bit jammed up. There just aren’t a lot of clearcut sellers at the moment.

Instead of presenting our annual look at who are Buyers (teams looking to add for a playoff push), Sellers (teams planning for the future), Either (teams who could buy or could sell) or Neither (teams who are likely to sit out the deadline entirely), we’re adding a twist. We’ll tell you which camp each stands in for now. (Spoiler: There are a lot of buyers!) But we’re also going to tell you what camp each team should be standing in.

Dallas Mavericks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Mavs are looking for help around Luka Doncic. No, it wasn’t prompted by a mural, but it’s known that Dallas is looking to find the right mix to put around Doncic.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Mavericks should be buying, but they have to be careful here. They’ve cleared out some of their long-term onerous salary. If they miss and take on more bad money, it’s going to get really difficult to get the right guys in the lineup with Doncic.

Denver Nuggets

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Denver probably won’t do a whole lot. They’re talking Bones Hyland deals. The Nuggets are looking to add more depth. But Denver is already $10.5 million over the tax, and they’ve got decent depth. Don’t look for much here.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Nuggets should be soft buyers. If they can flip Hyland and something (trading picks is hard because Denver has future obligations already) for a veteran to come off the bench, that’s fine. But Denver’s top-eight is really solid already. Given their limited resources, it’s going to be hard to get much of an upgrade.

Golden State Warriors

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Outside of the Andrew Wiggins-D’Angelo Russell swap, which came when the Warriors were in a retooling season, Golden State doesn’t really do in-season trades. They seem to be reluctant to move off anyone, even the youngsters who haven’t panned out. Look for the champs to add on the buyout market instead of via trade.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Golden State should be buying. The grand plan of young core stepping in as the veteran core ages out looks pretty shaky now. Instead, the Warriors should be maximizing what they have around their vets for another deep playoff run or two. James Wiseman (and maybe Moses Moody) isn’t going to get the development minutes he needs in the Bay Area. It’s time to move him for win-now help.

Houston Rockets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Houston is a seller, but one without a lot to sell. They’re looking to move Eric Gordon for the second or third deadline in a row. Beyond that, this team is mostly made of kids on their rookie scale deals. It’s hard to see any of them going anywhere.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Houston has been rumored to be in on John Collins. If the idea is to poach him for next-to-nothing, then it makes sense. But giving real value for Collins with the Rockets still rebuilding would be a bad move. Trade Gordon and keep it moving with the kids.

LA Clippers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Clippers are looking for a point guard and a backup center. They’ve been linked to Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley and Fred VanVleet. All would be expensive additions, but big upgrades. As LA has shown in the past, they won’t let the former stand in the way of the latter.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Clips have played well over a couple of weeks span now. They’ve shown when they care that they’re contenders. That’s enough to make it worth taking on even more in salary and tax penalties. With a bunch of midrange salaries to trade, the bet here is that LA makes at least one splashy addition before the deadline.

Los Angeles Lakers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Lakers aren’t done after the Rui Hachimura trade. They’re still looking to flesh out their rotation, while rebalancing some guard depth for wings with size. Just don’t expect a Russell Westbrook deal. That ship seems to have sailed, assuming it was ever seaworthy to begin with.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Los Angeles has shown enough when healthy that it’s worth buying. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are still those guys to build around. Given the Pelicans control the Lakers pick, there’s no reason to do anything but to be as good as possible. The question remains: Will Rob Pelinka move either or both of the tradable first-round picks?

Memphis Grizzlies

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Memphis is sitting in a somewhat unique spot. They are very good, contenders even, but feel one or two guys short. The Grizzlies also are a whopping $28.9 million under the tax line. They’re talking trades, but as always, Memphis is shy about moving on from their own drafted players.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Grizzlies have to get over moving their own players and go get some immediate rotation upgrades. Yes, they are young, but title contention windows snap shut as quickly as they open. Memphis is there right now. They are the best draft-and-develop team in the NBA, but it’s time to turn some of that into guys who can take them to the next level this season.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Minnesota is in a bit of a weird place. They are showing signs of being good, but aren’t quite there yet. They’re reportedly at least somewhat open to moving D’Angelo Russell, but need a point guard back. That sort of position-for-same-position trade is pretty rare, unless you’re swapping old for young. Buzz has picked up around Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid in recent weeks too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

It’s probably best for the Wolves to just be patient. Their big “addition” will be Karl-Anthony Towns. A trade that sends Russell away for another starting-level point guard seems unlikely. Minnesota is showing signs of figuring things out while waiting Towns return. Ride that out and make bigger moves this summer, if necessary.

New Orleans Pelicans

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Pelicans are looking (they’ve been linked to John Collins), but it seems almost like they are being opportunistic. And that’s fine. When healthy, this team has all the ingredients to make a decent playoff run.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

New Orleans shouldn’t go crazy…yet. They haven’t even seen this team as it was ideally built. Unless some sort of no-brainer deal lands at their feet, the Pels can afford to let things play out a bit. This summer feels like the big-move period vs any time in the next week or so.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Approach at the deadline: Neither

OKC is having a far better season than anyone could have ever expected. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a star and the role players are developing very quickly around him. But the Thunder aren’t ready to go all-in just yet. They’re poking around, but nothing serious seems on the table for Oklahoma City.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

The Thunder are only $7.9 million under the tax line. This isn’t like last year when Sam Presti had a mountain of cap space to use. If they can add some quality size that’s signed long-term, and the cost isn’t too great, jump on that. Beyond that, it’s best for OKC to keep their flexibility into the summer.

Phoenix Suns

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Suns are looking to add. With the new ownership group set to take over before the deadline, James Jones seems to have the greenlight to add some salary. That has the Suns in on point guards (Chris Paul insurance?) and power forwards (John Collins prime among them).

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

It’s been a while since Phoenix has really geared up at the deadline, but we’re seeing things change in a major way now. Keep an eye on Jae Crowder and Dario Saric. That’s over $19 million in expiring salary. If you add Cameron Payne, and his partially guaranteed for 2023-24 deal to that mix, you’re up over $25 million in mostly-expiring salary. That’s enough to get in the mix for anyone who becomes available. The time is now for the Suns to make a big swing.

Portland Trail Blazers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

All reports are that Portland is looking to add talent to their roster at the deadline. Josh Hart and Jusuf Nurkic are available, and the Blazers have some smaller midrange salaries they could deal too. They want to keep building around Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant, who they hope to extend or re-sign.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

It feels like the Trail Blazers are setting themselves up to sit in the middle for a while. Lillard is awesome, but the rest of the roster is full of good-but-not-great players. And there aren’t enough of those players that Portland has overwhelming depth either. In what is looking like a great seller’s market, the Blazers could reset on the fly, while also improving their cap flexibility and lottery odds. That’s an opportunity that might not exist next year.

Sacramento Kings

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

It seems like Sacramento is sort of poking around to improve around the edges of their rotation. They could use another wing and a little more shooting.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Kings should be thinking bigger. They can put together over $20 million in salary for non-rotation players to go make a deal. Of that group, only Richaun Holmes has money past this season. That’s enough to get Sacramento in the mix to land a big upgrade. With over $17 million to play with under the tax line, the focus should be on adding whoever the best available wing is. It would also give the Kings a bit of insurance should Harrison Barnes leave this summer.

San Antonio Spurs

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

For years, the Spurs section was the easiest to write. They never did anything at the trade deadline. They’ve been more active lately, as they’ve leaned into a rebuild. San Antonio is listening and sorting through offers for Jakob Poeltl, Josh Richardson and Doug McDermott.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Poeltl isn’t a must-trade for the Spurs. He could still be re-signed to a fair contract this summer, and San Antonio doesn’t have a center ready to replace him with. That said, if a team blows them away with an offer, Poeltl shouldn’t be untouchable. Richardson and McDermott should both be dealt. Richardson is probably gone after the season, and McDermott is on a fair-value deal given the shooting he can provide. All three vets can fill needs for contenders. The Spurs should be in a great spot to get a nice return here.

Utah Jazz

Approach at the deadline: Either

Danny Ainge is doing his thing with the Jazz. He made some teardown moves over the summer, but got such good returns that Utah hasn’t bottomed out. Now, Ainge is in the market to take this from a full rebuild to a quick flip. That’s exactly how he handled it with the Celtics when they got better than expected, quicker than was expected.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Without getting crazy, Utah should still be in seller mode. In a market devoid of sellers, players like Malik Beasley, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk, Jarred Vanderbilt and even Rudy Gay, could all net Ainge even more picks and young players to build back up with. That said, if there’s a chance to move those vets for younger vets who fit long-term around Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler (the new core pieces), the Jazz can’t go wrong there either. That’s why a guy like John Collins could make sense, even if Utah moves off a few vets too.

Keith SmithJanuary 27, 2023

The NBA is in a weird place two weeks or so out from the trade deadline on February 9. Only four teams in the entire league are more than three games out of a spot in the Play-In Tournament. In the Eastern Conference, only the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons have no realistic shot at making the postseason.

That’s caused the trade market to be a bit jammed up. There just aren’t a lot of clearcut sellers at the moment.

Instead of presenting our annual look at who are Buyers (teams looking to add for a playoff push), Sellers (teams planning for the future), Either (teams who could buy or could sell) or Neither (teams who are likely to sit out the deadline entirely), we’re adding a twist. We’ll tell you which camp each stands in for now. (Spoiler: There are a lot of buyers!) But we’re also going to tell you what camp each team should be standing in.

Atlanta Hawks

Approach at the deadline: Either 

The Hawks are could move some guys (John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Justin Holiday), but they won’t tear things down. If they trade any of their veterans, Atlanta will be looking to reset around a core of Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

The Hawks have it right. There’s too much talent to blow it up entirely. But can you finally trade John Collins if you aren’t going to appreciate what you have?

Boston Celtics

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Boston might dump another contract (Justin Jackson is the likely choice) to save some against the luxury tax. Major trades are probably out though. Look for the Celtics to do their work in the buyout market.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Celtics don’t need to go crazy. Their top-eight is any good as any in the NBA. But they could use some reinforcements for the rest of the regular season. Top of the list should be a wing to lessen the minutes burden for Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.

Brooklyn Nets

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Brooklyn is looking to upgrade. They could use another big to play behind and/or next to Nic Claxton (who is having an outstanding season) or one more guard, ideally one with some size.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Buying is right for the Nets. They’re a title contender and this isn’t going to be a super long window of contention either. Brooklyn should maximize what they can before the next circus comes along.

Charlotte Hornets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers 

We get to one of the assured sellers in the East. The Hornets have a lot of vets they are looking to move (Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, Kelly Oubre Jr.), but a couple might be tough sells.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Charlotte is trying. Moving Hayward (contract) and Oubre (injury) probably isn’t happening. But someone might want Terry Rozier for guard depth, and Mason Plumlee is a gettable center for any contender’s frontcourt depth. Cleaning up the books and opening up time for their kids and any kids they acquire is the way forward. Also: don’t trade Jalen McDaniels. He’s good and young enough to be a keeper on a new deal.

Chicago Bulls

Approach at the deadline: Either

Chicago might make some deals, but they aren’t going to tear things down fully. They owe a top-four protected pick to Orlando, so they don’t want to really bottom out. Because of that, they might make rebalancing trades vs selling off players.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Bulls should be selling. Where is this team going with this core this year and next? The Play-In Tournament? The sixth seed? It all sort of fell apart quickly after a promising start, but why delay the inevitable? And that pick is a sunk cost. Maybe you just bad enough that the extra few ping pong balls move you up in the lottery and you keep it. Also: if you aren’t re-signing Coby White this summer, it’s time to move him. There are too many guards in Chicago as is.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Cavs are looking for wings. They have basically everything else. One more quality wing would take this team from “frisky in the first round” to “Cleveland could make the conference finals”. And, you know what? They might be the latter anyway.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Cleveland is dangling Caris LeVert’s expiring $18.8 million deal to see what it can get them. That’s the right idea, but to make a real move, Cleveland may need to add Isaac Okoro into that offer. They just don’t have the draft picks to plus up any offers for a while.

Detroit Pistons

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Detroit is best termed as an “opportunistic seller”. The Pistons don’t feel pressure to move Bojan Bogdanovic or Alec Burks, but if they get the right offer, they’ll do it. And right now, in a seller’s market, that right offer is going to have to be pretty big.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Pistons are thinking of things the right way, but they should be a big more aggressive as we approach the deadline. It might make sense to hang onto Bogdanovic, especially if they think they can be a good team next year. Burks is a different story. If they get even a decent offer, move him along and fill that spot in free agency with cap space in the summer. And Nerlens Noel is as good as gone, either via trade or waiver after the deadline.

Indiana Pacers

Approach at the deadline: Either

The Pacers are in a fun spot. They’re better than expected, so they could reasonably add without a bunch of questions as to why they are buying. They also aren’t so good that selling off some vets would be crazy.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

With nearly $28 million in cap space, Indiana should be very active at the deadline. If they can pick off a player or two to give them a bit more size and balance to their roster, they should do it. And if someone wants to drastically overpay for Myles Turner and/or Buddy Hield, that should be on the table too. Oh, and it’s an NBA rule that Daniel Theis has to be traded in every trade window, right?

Miami Heat

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Heat don’t really have the assets, nor the flexibility, to be big-time buyers. They’ll be active. And never count out the Miami front office from getting really creative. But it’s hard to see how they do much.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Miami is in a tough spot next year with their roster. Max Strus and Gabe Vincent are pending unrestricted free agents. Losing both would be killer for the Heat’s depth. Keeping both is going to add to what is already a wildly expensive team. The solution: Why not at least explore the trade market for Kyle Lowry? His play has slipped to the point where his contract looks questionable at least, it not bad. But if a would-be contender wants a veteran floor leader, that could give the Heat an out and a chance to reset things a bit this summer.

Milwaukee Bucks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers 

The Bucks are looking to round out their rotation. They’ve been in on Jae Crowder since his trade request was made. They’ve also looked at ways to add Eric Gordon. Essentially, if you’re trading a wing that can defend, hit shots, or both (in an ideal world) and that wing makes under $20 million, Milwaukee wants to talk.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Buying is what the Bucks should be doing. They are right there in title contention. Go after it. This roster seems pretty creaky for its long-term viability. Now is the time to go all-in. Keep an eye on the frontcourt too, just in case the Bobby Portis injury is more worrisome than it appears.

New York Knicks

Approach at the deadline: Either

New York is in a weird spot. Ideally, they’d add some guys who can help prop up a playoff run. They really want to get into the top-six and avoid the Play-In Tournament. But the Knicks also have some vets who are very, very available.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Knicks need to be offering packages of their veterans, along with draft picks, to find upgrades. One more wing and another good backup guard and this rotation would be really fleshed out. And New York has the ability to get it done, both in terms of tradable contracts and draft picks to send out in trade.

Orlando Magic

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Magic might move Mo Bamba, Terrence Ross (last vet standing!) and maybe Gary Harris. Bamba and Ross feel like they are on borrowed time, and Harris is probably on the lower-end of the guard pecking order. But don’t be surprised if the Magic just ride things out to some extent and try to make their big moves this summer.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Orlando has to move Bamba and Ross, at the very least. Neither are regular rotation players. The returns won’t be huge, but a few more second-rounders are better than nothing for guys who won’t be back with the Magic next season. Harris is a harder call. He plays a real role, and team likes him helping to lead a young backcourt. But Orlando has to at least listen. Also, if someone got crazy about Jonathan Isaac, now that he’s back, that’s worth listening on too. Everyone else should take something really enticing to even start to get the Magic thinking about it.

Philadelphia 76ers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Daryl Morey is going to try to thread a difficult needle at the deadline: Add to the roster, while also shedding enough salary to get out of the tax. Don’t count him out. But no matter what, he’ll tinker around the edges of his rotation.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Like the Celtics, Nets and Bucks, the Sixers are a title contender. They don’t need a lot. They should be pushing to add a big behind Joel Embiid (just in case) and a wing shooter that can hold up defensively. There’s a good chance what we get is a salary-dump to avoid the tax, then some work on the buyout market.

Toronto Raptors

Approach at the deadline: Either

The Raptors are the ultimate wildcard at the deadline. Masai Ujiri might wake up one morning over the next couple of weeks and decide to blow it up. He might also look at his team and make a move to bolster a Play-In run and then a frisky first round series.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Toronto should sell, but within reason. They don’t need to trade everyone. But it’s time to decide if Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. are going to be around past this season. If so, what’s the walk-away number? Is a frontcourt of Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes really viable? If not, do you need a marquee big? And, for the love of all that is basketball holy, please find a way to trade at least one or two of the five big men who see at least semi-regular playing time off the bench.

Washington Wizards

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Washington seems destined to never be out of Play-In range. Never higher than seventh in the East, but never lower than 12th. Always around .500. Never really good, but never really bad either. And that’s why they’ll probably sit it out at the deadline. They already moved Rui Hachimura, and that’ll probably be it. They’ll likely overpay to keep Kyle Kuzma this summer, and Kristaps Porzingis either this summer or next, and that should keep both off the trade market.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Wizards are just like the Bulls, as far as having real questions about their ceiling. The Wizards should also be a flashing red warning beacon for the Raptors and what they could become. But unlike Chicago and Toronto, who could look very different in a year or two, Washington seems to really want to keep their core in place. Ideally, they’d at least listen on Kuzma and Porzingis. Just to see what’s out there before they lock in, but there are no signs that’s in play. At the very least Will Barton (and maybe Kendrick Nunn too) won’t be on this roster much past the deadline. If he’s not traded, he’ll be bought out.

Keith SmithJanuary 25, 2023

The 2023 NBA trade deadline is about two weeks away.  So far, we’ve seen two in-season trades. The Boston Celtics salary-dumped Noah Vonleh on the San Antonio Spurs. And, in a more meaningful move, the Los Angeles Lakers acquired Rui Hachimura from the Washington Wizards for Kendrick Nunn and three second-round picks.

Two weeks or so out from deadline day is when things usually start to pick up. Teams that insisted on multiple first-round picks for their players come down to a single first-round pick, while their partners in trades come up from offering a couple of second-rounders to offering that single first-rounder. As desperation increases, so does reasonability in trade talks.

Here’s what each of the 30 NBA teams are working with to trade as we sit two weeks from the deadline.

Atlanta Hawks

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.6 million (Maurice Harkless), $3.6 million (Kevin Huerter)

Draft Pick Situation: Hawks owe two future firsts (2025 and 2027) to the Spurs, as well as a swap in 2026. Atlanta is owed extra first-round pick from Sacramento. Hawks have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: John Collins. He’s been in rumors forever. Feels like something might actually got done this time.

Boston Celtics

Cap/Tax Picture: $23.7 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $5.9 million (Dennis Schroder), $3.2 million (Danilo Gallinari Disabled Player Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: Celtics owe this year’s first-rounder to the Pacers. They also have a top-1 protected swap with the Spurs in 2028. Boston has at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Justin Jackson. Nothing exciting here beyond a tax-savings move. It’s far more likely Boston is active on the buyout marker than the trade market.

Brooklyn Nets

Cap/Tax Picture: $34.8 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $2.5 million (James Harden)

Draft Pick Situation: Brooklyn is about neutral in first-round picks. They owe a couple of their own to Houston, but they have a couple coming from Philadelphia. The Nets have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Patty Mills. He’s no longer in the Nets rotation and his $6.5 million for this year is a nice piece of salary-matching in a trade.

Charlotte Hornets

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.6 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Hornets owe a protected first-rounder to the Spurs, but have a protected first-rounder coming from Denver. Charlotte has at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Mason Plumlee. This would have been Kelly Oubre Jr., but his recent hand surgery has him in a bit of flux. If Charlotte pivots towards development, and they should, Mark Williams will get the bulk of the center minutes. That makes Plumlee very available.

Chicago Bulls

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Bulls owe protected first-round picks to Orlando and San Antonio in coming years. Chicago doesn’t have a fully clear first-rounder until 2029. The Bulls also have one truly tradable second-round pick, as others all have conditions attached, including a pending forfeit from tampering.

Most Likely to be Traded: Coby White. If Chicago makes any sort of upgrade to their rotation, it’s likely White will be traded. He’s a pending restricted free agent and the Bulls have a bunch of other guards.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cap/Tax Picture: $2.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.9 million (Ochai Agbaji)

Draft Pick Situation: Cleveland owes four future first-round picks to the Pacers (one) and Jazz (three), as well as two years of swap rights to Utah. The Cavs have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Caris LeVert. It’s unlikely Cleveland does any major moves at the deadline, but if they do, LeVert has to be involved. The Cavs have guys on the roster who can fill what he does and his $18.8 million expiring contract is a very nice piece of salary-matching in a trade.

Dallas Mavericks

Cap/Tax Picture: $15.8 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Dallas owes a first to New York that should convey this season. They are free to trade all of their other first-rounders. The Mavs have at least three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dwight Powell. There isn’t a great candidate for Dallas. But Powell would likely be the one to move if the Mavericks made a big move.

Denver Nuggets

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.5 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.1 million (Monte Morris), $3.5 million (JaMychal Green)

Draft Pick Situation: Denver owes future first-round picks to Charlotte, Orlando and Oklahoma City. They won’t be able to trade a first-round pick at this deadline. The Nuggets have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Ish Smith. This would be a move simply to lessen the Nuggets tax bill, or Smith could go to yet another team in a swap of similar salaries.

Detroit Pistons

Cap/Tax Picture: $627 thousand under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Detroit owes a heavily protected first to New York that may not convey for at least a couple of seasons. The Pistons have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Alec Burks. The Pistons have set a high price for Bojan Bogdanovic. Teams will probably just wait and see if Nerlens Noel is bought out. That leaves Burks as an attainable mid-range players for other teams.

Golden State Warriors

Cap/Tax Picture: $40.2 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Warriors owe one protected first-round pick to the Grizzlies. Golden State has at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: James Wiseman. This is strictly a hunch. If the Warriors are going to bolster their bench in any kind of meaningful way, Wiseman would be the guy to go the other way in a trade.

Houston Rockets

Cap/Tax Picture: $14.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.9 million (Christian Wood)

Draft Pick Situation: Houston has a couple of extra first-rounders coming from Brooklyn and Miami. They also owe two protected picks to Oklahoma City, and there are swap rights in the mix too. The Rockets should have at least at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Eric Gordon. Gordon is the only veteran of note on the Rockets roster. Most of the other players are on rookie scale contracts and not going anywhere.

Indiana Pacers

Cap/Tax Picture: $27.8 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Indiana will get additional 2023 first-round picks from Boston and Cleveland. The Pacers also have all of their own first-round picks. The Pacers have at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Daniel Theis. It doesn’t seem very likely that Indiana is trading Myles Turner or Buddy Hield, despite years and months of rumors respectively. Theis seems to get moved during every trade window lately. If the Pacers are sending anyone out, it’ll probably be him.

LA Clippers

Cap/Tax Picture: $41.7 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.7 million (Serge Ibaka)

Draft Pick Situation: The Clippers owe two more first-round picks to the Thunder, plus two years of swap rights. LA has six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Robert Covington. Adding salary is no obstacle for the Clippers. They’ve got the greenlight to keep adding to an already giant tax bill. Covington is only a sometimes rotation player. If his $12.3 million salary can get LA an upgrade, they’ll do it.

Los Angeles Lakers

Cap/Tax Picture: $20.3 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans can swap for the Lakers pick this year. And Los Angeles owes New Orleans first in either 2024 or 2025, pending a Pelicans potential deferment. That leaves the Lakers with their 2027 and 2029 firsts as tradable. Los Angeles has four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Damian Jones. This isn’t as exciting or as fun as a huge Russell Westbrook trade, but that seems unlike. Instead, Jones could be moved in a salary-dump which would save some on the tax bill and also eliminate his player option for next season as a potential issue for the Lakers.

Memphis Grizzlies

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Grizzlies have all of their own first-round picks and one extra pick coming from the Warriors. Memphis has nine tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Danny Green. It’s unlikely the Grizzlies will do much at the deadline, even if they should. They’re really close to being the best team in the West and one more player could push them over. But Memphis likes to keep their own guys. If they do make a move, it’ll probably involve Green.

Miami Heat

Cap/Tax Picture: $163 thousand under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Heat owe one first to the Thunder, but own all of their other first-round picks. The Heat have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dewayne Dedmon. Dedmon has been replaced by Orlando Robinson in the rotation. Omer Yurtseven could return and bump Dedmon to fourth on the center depth chart. His $4.7 million could get moved to bring in help, or to clear some needed breathing room under the tax line.

Milwaukee Bucks

Cap/Tax Picture: $26.4 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Bucks only own two of their own future first-round picks. The others are owed to some combination of the Rockets, Pelicans and Knicks, plus the Pels own swap rights on two other years too. Milwaukee has eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Serge Ibaka. This one is cheating a bit, as the Bucks and Ibaka already agreed to find him a new home. If not Ibaka, keep an eye on Jordan Nwora or George Hill. They could both be nice pieces of salary-matching in a deal.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.1 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.4 million (Jarred Vanderbilt)

Draft Pick Situation: Minnesota owes Utah four future first-round picks, only one of which is protected. Because of the Stepien Rule, the Wolves can’t deal another first. The Timberwolves have three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Bryn Forbes. Super boring, but the Wolves don’t project to do anything big at the deadline. All of their meaningful salaries belong to rotation players. Minnesota is likely to focus on getting healthy and treating that as their “acquisitions”.

New Orleans Pelicans

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.6 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans own three extra first-rounders courtesy of the Lakers and Bucks. They also have swap rights on three years with those two teams too. New Orleans has at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Willy Hernangomez. When the Pelicans are healthy (or assuming they ever are), Hernangomez is the fifth big in their rotation. New Orleans should be able to pick up another second-rounder if they deal Hernangomez to a big-needy team.

New York Knicks

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Knicks first-round pick situation is complicated. They have all of their first-rounders moving forward. They have additional picks coming from Dallas, Detroit, Washington, and potentially Milwaukee, moving forward. Those picks all have various protections attached, but all should eventually convey to New York. The Knicks have eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cam Reddish. The contract is small enough to moved easily. New York is apparently asking only for a second-rounder or two in the deal. Reddish will likely get moved before the deadline.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $10.2 million (Derrick Favors), $4.2 million (Ty Jerome)

Draft Pick Situation: Oklahoma City has at least eight extra first-round picks headed their way from a combination of the Rockets, Clippers, Jazz, Heat, 76ers and Nuggets. In addition, the Thunder have at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Darius Bazley. It’s unlikely the Thunder will do much at the deadline. They aren’t sitting on cap space anymore. And OKC can’t realistically add any more draft picks. If they want to avoid any messiness with Bazley in restricted free agency, the Thunder might move him along to another team.

Orlando Magic

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.6 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Magic have extra firsts coming from the Bulls and the Nuggets, in addition to all of their own first-round picks. Orlando has at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Mo Bamba or Terrence Ross. Is this finally the year Ross gets traded? What about Bamba who has lost all of his minutes in a healthy, and crowded, frontcourt? Don’t be surprised if both are moved by the deadline, as Orlando consolidates things a bit on their roster.

Philadelphia 76ers

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.2 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Sixers have four of their own first-round picks over the next seven years, with three picks owed to a combination of the Nets, Thunder and possibly Jazz or Rockets. In the second round, Philadelphia owns only two picks that they will definitely get. This partially from forfeiting second-round picks in 2023 and 2024 due to tampering.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jaden Springer. If the 76ers can move Springer and take no salary back, they’ll get themselves clear of the tax. That’s likely to be a goal heading into the trade deadline.

Phoenix Suns

Cap/Tax Picture: $16.3 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Phoenix is the only team in the NBA that owns all of their own first and second round picks, and doesn’t have any extra picks in either round.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jae Crowder. Even if it’s for a very minor return, Phoenix has to move on from Crowder. They’ll likely get something of value, as he can help several contenders, but it’s a surety that Crowder will be moved before the deadline. Keep an eye on Dario Saric here too.

Portland Trail Blazers

Cap/Tax Picture: $67 thousand under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.5 million (Robert Covington), $3.3 million (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)

Draft Pick Situation: Portland owes a lottery protected pick to Chicago. Those protections carry out through 2028, but the pick should convey before then. The Blazers have four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Josh Hart. It’s probably more likely Portland stands pat, but Hart could be part of a deal to bring a bit more size to the roster. He’s also on a very tradable contract.

Sacramento Kings

Cap/Tax Picture: $17.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4 million (Tyrese Haliburton)

Draft Pick Situation: The Kings owe a protected first-round pick to the Hawks, but own the remainder of their own first-rounders. Sacramento has between nine and 11 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Alex Len. Sacramento has a lot of potentials for this spot. The Kings should be looking to aggregate together a bunch of salaries of non-rotation players. That could deliver a rotation player who makes upwards of $20 million this season. That’s the way to go all-in on a playoff push.

San Antonio Spurs

Cap/Tax Picture: $26.9 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Spurs have five extra picks coming their way from the Hawks, Hornets and Bulls. They also own all of their own first-rounders moving forward. San Antonio has 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Josh Richardson. Nope, not Jakob Poeltl. There seems to be real interest in re-signing the big man, so that leaves the veteran guard on the block. Richardson could help a lot of contenders and it would free up some minutes in a semi-crowded Spurs backcourt.

Toronto Raptors

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $5.3 million (Goran Dragic)

Draft Pick Situation: Toronto owns all of their own first-round picks with no extras coming in. The Raptors own all of their own second-rounders, minus a 2024 second-round pick they owe to Memphis.

Most Likely to be Traded: Gary Trent Jr. Maybe Toronto starts a major remodeling of their roster, but that seems more like a summer project. If they wait, and Trent isn’t a part of the future plans, expect the Raptors to get something of value before losing Trent for nothing this summer.

Utah Jazz

Cap/Tax Picture: $6.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.8 million (Joe Ingles), $9.6 million (Rudy Gobert), $4.9 million (Bojan Bogdanovic)

Draft Pick Situation: Utah owes one protected pick to Oklahoma City. Beyond that, the Jazz have eight additional first-rounders coming their way, mostly from the Cavaliers and Timberwolves. Utah has three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Malik Beasley. This is really a take-your-pick of any number of veterans on the Jazz roster. Beasley seems likely to fetch a solid enough return, while having a somewhat shaky spot moving forward that Utah could move on from him.

Washington Wizards

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.4 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.3 million (Rui Hachimura), $3.9 million (Aaron Holiday)

Draft Pick Situation: The Wizards owe a protected first-round pick to the Knicks, but own all of their other first-rounders. Washington has at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Will Barton. The veteran wing has fallen out of the Wizards rotation. He could still help a number of contenders who need a bench scorer. If he’s not traded, Barton could also work a buyout. Keep an eye on Kendrick Nunn as a guy who might get re-flipped after arriving in the Rui Hachimura trade.

Keith SmithJanuary 23, 2023

The Los Angeles Lakers haven’t been mentioned in every trade rumor this season, but it sure seems that way. Now, the Lakers are finally poised to push a deal across the finish line.

The Lakers will reportedly send Kendrick Nunn and three second-round picks to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Rui Hachimura. The deal is reportedly on course to be completed later in the day on Monday.

This isn’t the blockbuster that many were waiting on for the Lakers, but it’s still a good move that will help them immediately. That said, even this potentially small of a move can have major ramifications beyond just the final few months of the 2022-23 season.

Los Angeles Lakers

On the basketball side, Rui Hachimura is a great fit for Los Angeles. The Lakers only healthy forward with real size was LeBron James. He’s been taxed to some degree by having to play almost all of his minutes at power forward this season. Hachimura will give the Lakers some additional size in the frontcourt, and he can play alongside both James and Anthony Davis (when the latter gets healthy) in lineups that will be fairly sizable across the frontline.

On offense, Hachimura has settled into a complementary scoring role. He’s able to overpower smaller defenders, while using his quickness against bigger players. Hachimura has also developed a fairly reliable jumper over the years. He’s not much of a passer, but the Lakers should have covered. One continuing worrisome trend is that Hachimura is an inconsistent scorer. Just this past week, he’s gone for 16 points, 0 points and 30 points over a three-game stretch.

On defense, Hachimura doesn’t offer a ton. He’s best when guarding fours, but he can do ok against slower threes. He’s a solid enough rebounder, as his rebounding rates have generally remained consistent when adjusted for playing time. He’s not fixing any defensive issues the Lakers may have, minus some on the glass, but he’s also not taking anything off the table from their current mini-sized lineups either.

Essentially, Hachimura is being added as a flyer to bring a little size to the Lakers, along with some offensive punch to the frontcourt. Given the reasonable cost to acquire him, this is a very low-risk gamble by Los Angeles.

Kendrick Nunn was a consistent rotation player, but he’s part of a guard mix for the Lakers that runs five-deep beyond him when healthy. Swapping Nunn for Hachimura rebalances the rotation and should allow Darvin Ham to avoid relying on so many three- and sometimes four-guard lineups.

It’s on the cap sheet where this deal starts to get really interesting. Prior to this trade, the Lakers were looking at somewhere in the range of $30 to $35 million in cap space this summer. Reports are that LA wants to sign Hachimura to a new deal this summer, when the forward will be eligible for restricted free agency.

In order to do so, and to avoid another team swooping in, the Lakers will have to retain Hachimura’s $18.8 million cap hold. That hold, combined with the likely $2.2 million cap hold for pending restricted free agent Austin Reaves, will be enough to keep Los Angeles over the cap this summer.

That may seem confusing, but here’s how it works: The Lakers were projected to be at roughly $33 million in space before this deal. That was by wiping the books clean of all but the guaranteed salaries of James, Davis and Max Christie, while retaining a cap hold for Austin Reaves.

Now, you add $18.8 million for Hachimura and that space reduces to roughly $14 to $15 million. At that point, that space is less than the combined amount of the Non-Taxpayer Midlevel Exception and the Bi-Annual Exception. Add those against the space, and you have Los Angeles acting as an over-the-cap team in July.

But here’s how Rob Pelinka and the front office can still do some work in free agency beyond just using exceptions. Barring the most incredible final 30-game run the NBA has ever seen, Hachimura isn’t going to be anywhere near $18.8 million in Year 1 salary on his new deal. If the Lakers could sign him to a reasonable new deal, they could still have cap space to play with. (And it will be a new contract and not an extension. As he is wrapping up his rookie scale contract, Hachimura is no longer extension-eligible). Something around $10 million feels fair for Hachimura in Year 1 salary.

If the Lakers sign Hachimura to a deal that includes $10 million in Year 1 salary, they could then wipe away all the rest of their cap holds, minus Reaves’ $2.2 million. In that case, the Lakers would still have roughly $23.5 million to work with this summer, in addition to the $5.8 million room exception. That’s enough to start filling out the roster to build better depth around a core group that now includes James, Davis, Hachimura and Reaves.

It's easy to say “Now, the Lakers have to sign Hachimura to a new deal”, but this is still a low-risk flyer for the Lakers. If Hachimura works out, they can re-sign him to a reasonable new deal, as laid out above. If Hachimura doesn’t work out, the Lakers can renounce him and still have well over $30 million in cap space. The chance that Hachimura might pop is worth spending three second-rounders of capital on.

Last thing to note, Los Angeles will add almost $3 million to their luxury tax bill. The Lakers are only taking on just over $1 million in salary, but in terms of taxes and penalties, they’ll get hit with just shy of $3 million more on their tax bill.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards side of this deal is far easier to explain. When they didn’t ink Rui Hachimura to an extension, it signaled his days in DC might have been numbered. When Hachimura couldn’t fully break through in a crowded forward group, his time in Washington was fully up.

Before his recent injury, the Wizards had shifted Kristaps Porzingis back to playing at the 4. That allowed Washington to get Daniel Gafford back in the starting lineup. That’s important, because the Wizards have $40.2 million in fully guaranteed money invested in Gafford’s extension which starts next season.

Kyle Kuzma slides to the three in that alignment, but that pushed Deni Avdija to the bench. In that situation, you had Avdija, Hachimura and 2021 first-rounder Corey Kispert all competing for minutes behind Porzingis and Kuzma, who both play in the mid-30 minutes per night range.

Essentially, where there was once a logjam, there no longer is.

Nunn may see some time off the Wizards bench, but he was in this deal as salary ballast. Washington doesn’t really need him when the rest of their guards are healthy. The Wizards already aren’t playing veteran wing Will Barton, so it’s unlikely Nunn cracks the rotation. It’s more likely that Nunn and/or Barton could be moved elsewhere before the deadline. If not, keep an eye on both as buyout candidates.

The real get for Washington in this deal was freeing up that forward rotation and adding three second-round picks for a player they weren’t going to re-sign this summer. The Wizards got the Chicago Bulls second-round pick this summer. That’s likely to end being a middle of the second round selection, but there is some upside there, given Chicago’s inconsistency this season. Then they’ll get the worst of their own pick and the Lakers pick in 2028 and the Lakers pick in 2029. At worst, Washington keeps their own pick in 2028, but could get a potentially juicy selection that is several years out in 2029.

If nothing else, the Wizards now have some additional draft pick capital to work with in future trade offers. That’s good for a team that was a bit light in the future pick column, due to several past trades having not fulfilled all of their obligations just yet.

Last note for Washington: They dropped to about $1.3 million under the tax line. That’s good additional flexibility to have over the next two-and-a-half weeks before the trade deadline. Prior to this deal, the Wizards were a little too close to the tax line for comfort. They should now have enough wiggle room to even add a little bit of salary in any subsequent deal, while still avoiding the tax.

Keith SmithJanuary 17, 2023

As the Toronto Raptors continue to wallow below .500 and out of the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament picture, trade rumors swirl around most of their roster. Recent reports say the Raptors will “do something” before the February 9 trade deadline. Toronto President Masai Ujiri isn’t one who is content to sit in the middle, so expect the Raptors to pick a direction soon. They’ll either be all-in or they’ll be resetting the roster ahead of a busy offseason.

One player caught in the center of all of this swirl is veteran point guard Fred VanVleet. Recently, VanVleet addressed his contract and potential extension negotiations with the Raptors. He didn’t say much beyond his loyalty is with the Raptors. On reports that he turned down a contract extension, VanVleet’s response was that there hadn’t been an offer made for him to turn down.

That’s all well and good, but a player of VanVleet’s caliber is going to be made an extension offer. Even if an official one hasn’t been made, VanVleet, his reps and the Raptors know what the max they can offer him is. The other option is that VanVleet could play things out and immediately become one of the best players on the free agent market this summer. Let’s look at what VanVleet’s next contract could look like.

The Veteran Extension

The most beneficial extension scenario for Fred VanVleet would be to decline his player option for next season. This would allow him to add four years via an extension. If VanVleet opted in for next season, he’d only be able to add up to three years. He could wait, and extend after opting in, but that’s probably not something that’s on the table.

In a four-year extension by declining his option, here’s what VanVleet’s deal would look like:

    • 2023-24: $25,500,000
    • 2024-25: $27,540,000
    • 2025-26: $29,580,000
    • 2026-27: $31,620,000
    • Total: four years, $114,240,000

That’s a bump of 20% over VanVleet’s current $21,250,000 salary with 8% raises on top of that.

This deal would give VanVleet an average annual value (AAV) of $28.56 million. That’s well below his max salary, but in range of what a realistic salary could be if VanVleet opted for free agency.

For reference, $25.5 million would make VanVleet the 14th highest paid point guard next season. He’d be right behind Jalen Brunson and just ahead of Mike Conley. That feels about right for VanVleet, as far as company goes. Non-All-Stars, but right at the top of that next tier down.

Given that company, the dearth of quality free agents next summer and the need to have a good point guard, we have to ask: could VanVleet do better by simply opting out and hitting the open market?

Re-signing with the Raptors as a free agent

Toronto’s leg-up on the competition to re-sign Fred VanVleet is that they can offer him a fifth year and they can offer him 8% raises vs being limited to four-years deals with 5% raises. The max VanVleet can get in free agency from Toronto looks like this:

    • 2023-24: $40,200,000
    • 2024-25: $43,416,000
    • 2025-26: $46,632,000
    • 2026-27: $49,848,000
    • 2027-28: $53,064,000
    • Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% of the cap max, with 8% raises and the max of five years.

This deal would immediately vault VanVleet into third place in salary among all point guards, behind only veteran superstars Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard. He’d be ahead of Luka Doncic and Trae Young (in the second years of their Designated Rookie extensions) and on par with someone like Ja Morant (who seems destined to quality for a Designated Rookie extension).

If you blanch at that kind of money for VanVleet, don’t worry. You aren’t alone. He’s not getting a full max deal. We’re simply setting the high-end that he could sign for. History tells us VanVleet will land somewhere south of that $40.2 million number in first-year salary.

Signing with another team as a free agent

Fred VanVleet is going to fall somewhere between the top-five and top-10 on available free agent lists this summer. We’ve got him ranked fifth overall, and the players in front of him (James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Draymond Green and Khris Middleton) are more likely to re-sign with their teams than they are to leave.

That could put VanVleet in play to be the best free agent to actually change teams this summer. We’ve already got reporting that the Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic could be interested in acquiring the veteran point guard to lead their offenses.

Here’s the most a rival team could offer VanVleet:

    • 2023-24: $40,200,000
    • 2024-25: $42,210,000
    • 2025-26: $44,220,000
    • 2026-27: $46,320,000
    • Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the same 30% of the cap in first-year salary, but the max another team can offer VanVleet is four years and 5% raises.

We’ve already covered where that would place VanVleet among his peers at his position next season. That’s probably not in play.

One other thing to be aware of: This is the most VanVleet could get via a sign-and-trade too. That’s important because of something we’re going to cover next.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

Extend-and-trade deals are rare, because they don’t really offer all that much for the player. They’re limited to a 5% bump in salary over their current salary and then adding one more year at an 8% bump. In Fred VanVleet’s case, here’s what it would look like for him in the new years of an extend-and-trade:

  • 2023-24: $22,312,500
  • 2024-25: $24,097,500

That’s over $46 million in new money, but that’s not really where VanVleet is at. He’d also make roughly $500,000 less in the first year of an extend-and-trade than he would by simply opting in with Toronto for next season.

It’s important to note that any team trading for VanVleet can’t extend him immediately either. They’d have to wait for six months to extend him for more than he could get via an extend-and-trade. At that point, it’s probably best for VanVleet to simply opt out and sign a new contract as a free agent.

The Opt-In-And-Trade

Given the reported interest in Fred VanVleet on the potential free agent market, we’re going to cover the idea of an opt-in-and-trade. For example, one of the teams mentioned as a potential landing spot for VanVleet is the Phoenix Suns. If Phoenix is convinced that Chris Paul doesn’t have it anymore (he’s slipped greatly this season), they could look to move on and replace him with VanVleet.

However, Phoenix won’t have the cap space to sign VanVleet outright. And doing a sign-and-trade would subject Phoenix to the hard cap. That makes it tricky to add much salary and to maintain roster flexibility.

Thus, we could see VanVleet opt in for next season under the auspices he’d be traded to Phoenix this summer. Because it would be a straight trade, the hard cap wouldn’t be triggered. And, after a six-month waiting period, Phoenix could do a four-year extension with VanVleet. That deal would look like this:

    • 2023-24: $22,824,074
    • 2024-25: $27,388,889
    • 2025-26: $29,580,000
    • 2026-27: $31,771,111
    • 2027-28: $33,962,222
    • Total: five years, $145,526,296

That’s VanVleet opting in for next season, then extending (after a six-month waiting period) to add four new years. That would follow the Veteran Extension math of a 20% bump in first-year salary, followed by 8% raises on each new year.

As you can see, this could leave a good deal of money on the table over simply signing with a team outright as a free agent. The benefits here are that it allows the acquiring team to avoid becoming hard capped, while allowing VanVleet to still add several years of new money to his deal.

Summary

Fred VanVleet’s contract situation isn’t as cut and dry as many others. He’s not a clearcut max player, so there isn’t an obvious reason for him to play things out to free agency. But VanVleet is also not a deep-career veteran who should take an extension to simply add more years to his deal.

Instead, we have a player who is firmly in the middle. We can absolutely rule out an extend-and-trade. That wouldn’t give VanVleet the money he’s earned, nor the safety of adding multiple years.

That leaves the standard veteran extension or hitting free agency. Given the market, VanVleet should probably forgo an extension, opt out of his current deal and become an unrestricted free agent this summer. That gives him the most control, plus allows for the same long-term security, while adding the ability to make the most money possible.

When suggesting VanVleet should opt for free agency, we need to consider who projects to have cap space. Eight teams project to have in the range of $30 million in cap space this summer. Of those teams, we can probably eliminate the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers as VanVleet suitors. They’ve got their guard positions covered for years to come.

The Los Angeles Lakers are interesting, but they are probably thinking bigger with their cap space. And if they aren’t thinking of adding a third star around LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers should be splitting their cap space up to add much-needed depth.

That leaves the Houston Rockets (they have guards, but are rumored to have interest in reuniting with James Harden so…), Detroit Pistons (if they don’t see Cade Cunningham as a point guard, and they’ve also had VanVleet interest before), Orlando Magic (guard rotation is very much in flux), San Antonio Spurs (Tre Jones is the only point guard on the roster) and the Utah Jazz (whole roster is in flux) as cap space suitors.

Of that group, VanVleet can carve out a market. And that’s before we even get to teams that could do a sign-and-trade with the Toronto Raptors.

Given that a market for VanVleet exists, it’s now about figuring out value. VanVleet will be 29 at the end of February, which means his next deal will cover his age-29 through age-32 seasons. He’s had some injury issues over the last four years, so he’s not exactly a young 29-year-old either.

Now, we have to combine that with some shooting percentages that have slipped to a dangerous level this season. VanVleet has always been an average finisher at the rim and more of a midrange and three-point specialist. Given his shot profile, shooting 40% overall, 37% on three-pointers wasn’t overly worrisome.

This season, VanVleet is under 40% overall and hitting just 33% of his shots from deep. That’s on a high volume of 8.6 three-point attempts per game too. If that’s a blip, whatever. If it isn’t, that’s a bad sign of things to come.

On the flip side, VanVleet remains a fairly rugged defender. He’s strong, so he can hold up against bigger players. He’s also a good rebounder for his position and a good playmaker. Ideally, VanVleet would be the guy who sets your offense and then spots up for open jumpers off others. A high-end organizer, if you will.

Having looked at all that, VanVleet is probably going to garner offers that pay him somewhat near, or above, $30 million in first-year salary. That would put VanVleet right in that Chris Paul/Kyle Lowry territory as veteran point guards who are just outside the top-10 in salary.

If a team were smart, given VanVleet’s age, injury history and potentially declining shooting, they’d frontload his deal. Give him more in Year 1 than what most think is fair, but the contract would then descend each year, to match any potential fall-off in play.

For the Raptors, that deal could look like:

    • 2023-24: $33,600,000
    • 2024-25: $30,912,000
    • 2025-26: $28,224,000
    • 2026-27: $25,536,000
    • Total: four years, $118,272,000

That’s the max-allowable 8% declines from year to year.

For a rival team, they could offer a declining structure that looks like this:

    • 2023-24: $32,000,000
    • 2024-25: $30,400,000
    • 2025-26: $28,800,000
    • 2026-27: $27,200,000
    • Total: four years, $118,400,000

That’s the max-allowable 5% declines each year.

In both scenarios, VanVleet gets roughly $118 million. In both scenarios, teams are protected in the early-30s years for VanVleet, in case his play falls way off. For reference, $26 million would be roughly 15% of a $170 million cap in 2026-27. And that could be low-balling where the cap will fall under a new CBA and with new media rights deals in place.

No matter where his next deal lands, Fred VanVleet should skip signing an extension right now. Unless he really wants to stay in Toronto long-term, and he might very well want to, he’s likely leaving money on the table if he forgoes becoming an unrestricted free agent this summer. Bigger offers should await him this offseason, whether they are from the only NBA home he’s known, or elsewhere.

Keith SmithJanuary 14, 2023

After trading Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, the prevailing wisdom around the Utah Jazz was that veterans like Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley and Rudy Gay would be next to go. Instead, the Jazz hung on to those veterans and have been better than expected halfway through the NBA regular season.

Clarkson, in particular, has had a really good year. He’s also become a leader for a somewhat young Utah roster. Clarkson’s play and leadership have brought enough to the team that reports are the Jazz are more likely to extend him than they are to trade him.

In his ninth NBA season, Clarkson is averaging a career-high 20.7 points per game, while playing the most minutes of his career. As a full-time starter for the first time since his sophomore season, Clarkson has maintained, or lifted, his shooting percentages, while also averaging career-bests in rebounds and assists.

Let’s take a look at what Clarkson could get by extending with the Jazz and what his next deal could look like if he were to push his decision to free agency.

The Veteran Extension

In the most beneficial veteran extension scenario, Jordan Clarkson would decline his player option for next season. That would allow Clarkson to add four new years to his deal. Clarkson could also opt in for next season, and add just three seasons. This is because contracts are limited to five total years (years remaining, plus new years) in a veteran extension.

In this scenario, we’ll look at Clarkson declining his 2023-24 option, in order to add four years.

    • 2023-24: $16,008,000
    • 2024-25: $17,288,640
    • 2025-26: $18,569,280
    • 2026-27: $19,849,920
    • Total: four years, $71,715,840

That’s a 20% bump off of Clarkson’s $13.34 million salary for this season. He’d also be eligible for 8% raises, which is also reflected here.

For this season, a $16 million salary would rank 22nd among NBA shooting guards. That would see Clarkson nestled right between Norman Powell of the LA Clippers and Jazz teammate Malik Beasley.

If we flip it ahead one season, at $16 million, Clarkson would be 27th in the NBA among shooting guards. That’s right behind Beasley and just ahead of Kevin Huerter of the Sacramento Kings.

Not bad company for Clarkson in either spot. Powell, Beasley and Huerter are all solid score-first guards. Huerter is a regular starter, while Powell and Beasley both come off their bench for their teams.

But even in that company, could Clarkson do better in free agency?

Re-signing with the Jazz as a free agent

Utah has full Bird rights for Clarkson. That means that they could offer him up to the max. For posterities sake, here’s what that would look like for Clarkson as a nine years of service player:

    • 2023-24: $40,200,000
    • 2024-25: $43,416,000
    • 2025-26: $46,632,000
    • 2026-27: $49,848,000
    • 2027-28: $53,064,000
    • Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% of the projected $134 million cap for 2023-24, with 8% raises tacked on.

Now, Jordan Clarkson isn’t getting that much in free agency. He’d be the third-highest paid shooting guard in the NBA at $40.2 million, behind only Bradley Beal, Paul George (who is also kind of a small forward) and Klay Thompson. Good as he is (and as overpaid as a couple of those guys may be), that’s not the kind of player Clarkson is.

So, while it’s nice to have a high-point salary as a high-end marker, that’s all it is.

Signing with another team as a free agent

Clarkson is an interesting spot as a potential unrestricted free agent. Two guard is probably the deepest position in free agency, but Clarkson is somewhere in the 2-to-7 range at his position. Overall, Clarkson is likely somewhere in the 10-to-20 range among all potential free agents.

Here’s the most a rival team could offer Clarkson:

    • 2023-24: $40,200,000
    • 2024-25: $42,210,000
    • 2025-26: $44,220,000
    • 2026-27: $46,320,000
    • Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the same 30% of the cap in first-year salary, but the max another team can offer Clarkson is four years and 5% raises.

This deal serves as a nice comparison point for Clarkson’s potential extension with Utah. In theory, Clarkson would be leaving $100 million on the table. In reality, it’s more of another high-end marker that Clarkson won’t come anywhere close to.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

Even if we’re trying to tamp down expectations a bit for Jordan Clarkson on his next deal, doing an extend-and-trade or an extension after a trade aren’t in range for him. He’d only be able to add a 5% bump off his current $13.34 million salary in Year 1 and then 8% in Year 2. Either situation would look like this:

  • 2023-24: $14,007,000
  • 2024-25: $15,127,560

Adding $29.1 million isn’t bad, but that’s less money in Year 1 of this extension than Clarkson would make by simply picking up his player option.

And Clarkson can’t extend after a trade, because any extension that would go beyond what’s allowable in an extend in trade would have to wait for six months. That would take us past the opening of free agency, and Clarkson would be better off to just opt out and re-sign with any team that traded for him.

Summary

Jordan Clarkson is having a great season. If the Jazz record were a bit better, he’d join teammate Lauri Markkanen in garnering All-Star consideration. It’s easy to see why Utah is thinking extension vs trading Clarkson.

On the flip side, Clarkson is turning in a career-year in his age-30 season. His last two full seasons in Utah, Clarkson shot 42.2% overall and 33.3% on three-pointers. And on a contender, he’s probably a combo guard coming off the bench.

But let’s not pretend that good bench scorers don’t have value. Two of Clarkson’s best career comps are Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford. Williams had a 17-year career as primarily a bench scoring guard, while Crawford went for a whopping 20 years in that role. Having the remainder of his career play out like two of the preeminent sixth men in NBA history is a good goal for Clarkson.

Given his age, and factoring in that this is probably a career-year and not a new baseline, we can split the difference on what is fair for Clarkson’s next contract. And we’ll also factor in that he’s a valuable player as a reserve of a starter and that his scoring is a skill that gets players paid.

With all that we know, the Jazz would do well to simply extend Clarkson now. He’d get roughly $18 million AAV and that’s pretty fair value. Utah would do best to try to keep it to three years and $52 million, as opposed to four years and almost $72 million, but that’s just to protect against age-related regression.

However, for Clarkson, that’s probably right on the border of it being worth testing free agency. The free agent class this summer is weak enough that there is likely to be more money available than players to reasonably spend it on. Only James Harden, Kyrie Irving and maybe Khris Middleton are max contract guys this summer, and they are all more likely to re-sign where they are than to leave. That leaves a lot available for everyone else.

Clarkson is a primary player among that “everyone else” group. It’s not a stretch to see a team offering him a three- or four-year deal in the $20 million AAV range.

With that in mind, it’s probably best for Jordan Clarkson to finish this year strong, opt out and see what free agency has to offer. Utah loves Clarkson and he seems happy there. Whatever the Jazz can offer him in an extension should be there this summer, and Utah can beat any rival’s offer too. If Clarkson can leverage his way into a bit more salary in free agency, so much the better for him.

 

Keith SmithJanuary 10, 2023

The NBA trade deadline is roughly a month away. As it stands right now, there are more buyers than sellers. The Play-In Tournament and flattened lottery odds have done a number on tanking on both ends of the spectrum. Having something to play for (making the Play-In Tournament) keeps more teams in the postseason race for longer. Not having to be egregiously bad keeps teams from completely bottoming out in the race for the most ping pong balls.

The result is that we have a trade market that can take a bit to develop. That said, there are a handful of teams that need to push in over the next month before the deadline. These teams make up sort of a forgotten “middle” of the NBA. Not necessarily in the standings, but on the cap sheet.

By now, you probably know that both the Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs are sitting on about $27 million in cap space apiece. The Pacers look like a playoff team, while the Spurs are chasing ping pong balls. But both will be active at the trade deadline, almost because they have to be.

Both the Pacers and Spurs are about $15 million under the salary floor. They’ll take on some money either through trades, or in the case of the Pacers, by a renegotiation-and-extension with Myles Turner.

At the opposite end of the bank books, there are currently 10 teams over the luxury tax line with another five teams less than $2 million from the tax line. These teams range from the Golden State Warriors, Brooklyn Nets and LA Clippers who are so far past the tax line they can barely see it, to the Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers and Miami Heat who are dancing around either side of the line.

We can also say with confidence that teams in the race for Victor Wembanyama shouldn’t be taking on too much by the trade deadline. The Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder and Orlando Magic should be active, but only for trades that help them collect talent or draft picks. There isn’t a big reason to take on salary, especially salary that extends beyond this season, as these teams should be cap space players this summer.

That leaves a group of six teams who are all firmly in the playoff mix, but aren’t really in danger of dipping into the luxury tax. They make up that forgotten “middle” when it comes to salary accounting: Not sitting on cap space, but not so expensive you can almost rattle off their tax bill from memory.

The Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, New York Knicks and Sacramento Kings should all be making a push and looking to add money to this year’s cap sheet.

The first reason is obvious. Each of these teams should be looking to strengthen their rosters for a playoff push. That’s simple enough.

The second reason is a bit more obtuse. It lies in a bit of cap sheet management that we can all “use it or lose it” flexibility. The Cavs, Grizzlies, Wolves, Pelicans, Knicks and Kings are all sitting on a decent chunk of spending power before they hit the tax line. This summer, things reset. For a few of these teams, they could find themselves having to make decisions for this offseason and beyond that involve going into the tax or not. But for right now, for this 2023 playoff run, each team has the ability to improve without pushing themselves into a financially burdensome spot. Let’s take a look.

Cleveland Cavaliers

2022-23 Tax Space: $2.5 million

The Cavs need another wing and another shooter. If that comes in the form of the same player, even better. They’re tighter to the tax line than anyone else here, but that $2.5 million should give them enough wiggle room to get what they need without tripping the tax. That might mean adding some money to next year’s books (Tim Hardaway Jr. anyone?), but that’s going to happen by virtue of re-signing Kevin Love and/or Caris LeVert anyway. Cleveland has a real chance to make noise in the playoffs for the first time without LeBron James. They have to take advantage.

Memphis Grizzlies

2022-23 Tax Space: $28.9 million

Memphis is really good. Like “could win the 2023 NBA Finals” good. They’ve got a star (Ja Morant), great secondary guys (Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr.), and a strong supporting cast. That said, the Grizzlies still have needs. They could really use another wing shooter. Maybe that’s Danny Green, if he can get healthy. But more likely, Green’s $10 million expiring contract could help fill that need. It might mean trading a couple of their kids (always tough because Memphis is the NBA’s premier draft-and-develop organization), but it’s worth it. Title windows sometimes open before you expect them to, but they snap shut quickly too. This roster is going to get really expensive soon. The Grizzlies have the tax space this year to add to their roster without coming close to tax. They should take advantage of that while they can. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

2022-23 Tax Space: $3.1 million

The Wolves are playing better. They’re finally figuring stuff out on both ends of the floor after making the all-in trade for Rudy Gobert. It’s because of that deal that Minnesota has to maximize when they can. Next season, they’ll have some free agents to re-sign (D’Angelo Russell, Jaylen Nowell, Naz Reid) and the year after that, extensions will kick in for Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. Barring further roster shuffling, the Timberwolves are going to be a very expensive team and soon. That makes this year the year to make another move. If they were still scuffling along down around 12th in the conference, we might feel differently. But Towns will be back soon, and Minnesota has some tradable contracts to stack together to fill holes. Another wing and another shooter, and the Wolves could make real noise in the playoffs.

New Orleans Pelicans

2022-23 Tax Space: $3.6 million

The Pelicans are a hair behind the Grizzlies in the “they could win the title this year” mix. Most of that is related to injuries to Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. When healthy, New Orleans is every bit as good as any team in the West. But it’s that “when healthy” qualifier that makes it necessary to upgrade the roster right now. $3.6 million isn’t a ton of tax space, but it’s enough to fill a hole. Another shooter with size could do wonders on this roster. Kyle Kuzma maybe? That’ll cost the Pelicans a pick (it’s time to move that swap with the Lakers, like right now!) and a young player or two. But that’s fine. The roster is a little overstuffed as is. A small consolidation move involving one or two of the kids, plus a pick, is the move to make.

New York Knicks

2022-23 Tax Space: $7.7 million

The Knicks are one of only a few teams that are top-10 in the NBA in both offensive and defensive rating. They’re a legitimately good team, even if they have a proclivity for looking awful in losses. New York also has plenty of non-rotation players that they can package together to make a major rotation upgrade. With that kind of salary-matching and nearly $8 million in wiggle room under the tax, the Knicks should be a player at the trade deadline. They’ve also got their core signed through next season, and still have plenty of space under next year’s tax. That means taking on long-term salary shouldn’t be an issue either.

Sacramento Kings

2022-23 Tax Space: $17.4 million

Light the beam! The Kings are good and they are fun. And they have the ability to make moves to make a playoff run more of a reality, as opposed to a dream. Note: that’s playoff run, not a Play-In Tournament run. Sacramento can put together a few midrange contracts belonging to non- and semi-rotation players (Richaun Holmes, Terence Davis, Alex Len) that can get them in the range of a $20 million player. Imagine the Kings with one more wing. Or another big that can play behind and with Domantas Sabonis. Or a guard with some size. Sacramento is fifth in the Western Conference right now. With the right move, they could maintain that, and the assured playoff spot. That would finally break their 16-year playoff drought. And the Kings can do it without even touching the luxury tax. Now is the time to really light that beam in Sacramento!

Keith SmithJanuary 06, 2023

January 7 isn’t a well-known date on the NBA calendar, but it should be. Many know that on January 10, all NBA contracts become fully guaranteed. What isn’t as well-known is that in order for a team to not have a fully guaranteed deal land on their books for the rest of the season, they have to make a decision by January 7.

Teams must waive players on partial/non-guaranteed deals by January 7 in order for them to clear waivers before January 10. (The waiver period is 48 hours). Thus, while January 10 is the technical date that all contracts become fully guaranteed, January 7 is the functional deadline.

We’ve already seen some movement around this deadline. The Boston Celtics traded Noah Vonleh to the San Antonio Spurs, who subsequently waived Vonleh. The Dallas Mavericks waived veteran guard Kemba Walker.

There are 27 players still in limbo before the January 7 deadline. Here are the decisions NBA teams must make. (All salary amounts reflect the player’s fully guaranteed cap hit.)

 

Atlanta Hawks

Vit Krejci - $1,563,518

This is a true 50-50 decision. The Hawks are close to the luxury tax line, but won’t save much by waiving Krejci. And they’re already sitting on one open roster spot. The guess here is that Krejci sticks.

Tyrese Martin - $1,017,781

Atlanta made a significant investment in Martin as a 2022 second-round pick. He’s not getting waived.

Boston Celtics

Justin Jackson - $1,836,090

When Boston traded away Noah Vonleh in a salary-clearing move, it boosted Jackson’s chances of sticking around. The Celtics aren’t exactly swimming in wing depth either. Jackson probably sticks, unless Boston really wants to play in the buyout market.

Luke Kornet - $2,133,278

Kornet has been a regular rotation player. The Celtics figure to play it safe with Rob Williams and Al Horford the rest of the regular season. Kornet isn’t going anywhere.

Brooklyn Nets

Markieff Morris - $1,836,000

The Nets just guaranteed Morris $1 million last month. He’s not going anywhere.

Edmond Sumner - $1,968,175

Sumner’s return to the court has been a fun story. He’s also played a rotation role at times. He’ll stick through the guarantee deadline.

Yuta Watanabe - $1,836,090

Watanabe has been one of the best bargains in the league, after earning a roster spot in training camp. He’ll be in Brooklyn for the rest of the season.

Charlotte Hornets

Dennis Smith Jr. - $1,836,090

When healthy, Smith has been a very solid backup point guard for Charlotte. He’s sticking around.

Chicago Bulls

No guarantee decisions

Cleveland Cavaliers

Lamar Stevens - $1,782,621

Stevens has been a rotation guy and sometimes starter for the Cavs. He’ll be staying in Cleveland.

Dallas Mavericks

No remaining guarantee decisions after waiving Kemba Walker

Denver Nuggets

No guarantee decisions

Detroit Pistons

No guarantee decisions

Golden State Warriors

No guarantee decisions

Houston Rockets

No guarantee decisions

Indiana Pacers

Oshae Brissett - $1,846,738

Brissett is a regular rotation guy in Indiana and the only true four in their rotation. He’s not going anywhere.

James Johnson - $1,836,090

The Pacers are currently around $15 million under the salary floor. They’ll guarantee Johnson and if they need a roster spot, they’ll just eat his salary.

LA Clippers

No guarantee decisions

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers will reportedly guarantee both Wenyen Gabriel ($1,878,720) and Austin Reaves ($1,5563,518). This makes sense as both are rotation guys. Reaves becomes a very interesting restricted free agent to monitor this coming offseason.

Memphis Grizzlies

Danny Green - $10,000,000

Green isn’t going to get waived. The real question is if Green will be part of a trade package, of if he can return from his torn ACL to give Memphis some wing depth.

Miami Heat

Haywood Highsmith - $1,752,638

Highsmith will stick around in Miami. He’s played regular minutes in Miami’s miniature and banged-up frontcourt.

Milwaukee Bucks

No guarantee decisions

Minnesota Timberwolves

Nathan Knight - $1,839,090

The Wolves like Knight as a depth player in their frontcourt. He’ll stick around for the rest of the season.

Jaylen Nowell - $1,930,681

This is a no-brainer. Nowell is Minnesota’s best reserve guard. He’s not getting waived. Nowell is also an interesting extension candidate for the Wolves.

Austin Rivers - $1,836,090

Rivers is a rotation regular for Chris Finch. He’ll continue to be one after the guarantee deadline passes on January 7.

New Orleans Pelicans

Jose Alvarado - $1,563,518

Arguably the biggest no-brainer on the list. Alvarado is on a steal of a deal for the Pels and isn’t going anywhere.

New York Knicks

Ryan Arcidiacono - $1,836,090

Arcidiacono is a favorite of Tom Thibodeau, so he’ll stick around. He’s also occasionally played when New York has dealt with backcourt injuries.

Svi Mykhailiuk - $1,836,090

Mykhailiuk won a roster spot during the preseason, but that hasn’t translated to anything further. Even when the Knicks have been down several wings, Mykhailiuk hasn’t played. This is a tough call, but the guess is the Knicks let him go.

Oklahoma City Thunder

No guarantee decisions

Orlando Magic

Jonathan Isaac - $17,400,000

This is a quirky one. By not meeting games-played minimums, Isaac’s contract converted to partial and non-guaranteed years over its final three seasons. He’s still not back yet, but the Magic aren’t ready to move on either. He’ll make it through the rest of this year. Depending on how Isaac looks when he does play sets up an interesting decision for Orlando this summer.

Philadelphia 76ers

No guarantee decisions

Phoenix Suns

Jock Landale - $1,563,518

Landale seemed like he would be waived long ago, but he’s become Phoenix’s best backup big behind Deandre Ayton. He’ll stick with the Suns for the rest of the season.

Portland Trail Blazers

No guarantee decisions

Sacramento Kings

Matthew Dellavedova - $1,836,090

This one is tough. Mike Brown loves Dellavedova being the veteran guard with a still-young group. But the Kings might need a roster spot for flexibility during trade and buyout season. The guess is Dellavedova sticks, but could be thrown into a trade package, or waived if Sacramento makes an unbalanced trade.

Chima Moneke - $1,017,781

Moneke hasn’t done much for the Kings. He’s shuttled back and forth to the G League a lot. But Sacramento made a decent-sized salary commitment to him. He probably sticks around.

KZ Okpala - $1,902,133

Okpala is in a bit of a similar spot as Moneke, as far as salary-commitment goes. But Okpala sees minutes on a fairly regular basis too. He’ll stick in Sacramento.

San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Johnson - $1,245,164

Johnson will stay in San Antonio. The Spurs are $14.7 million under the salary floor and already have an open roster spot. With Devin Vassell out for a while after knee surgery, Johnson isn’t going to be waived.

Toronto Raptors

No guarantee decisions after waiving Justin Champagnie last month

Utah Jazz

No guarantee decisions

Washington Wizards

No guarantee decisions

Keith SmithJanuary 05, 2023

While most of the eyes around the NBA are on the February 9 trade deadline, there are a few dates that take precedence first. The first is Thursday, January 5, which is when teams can sign 10 Day contracts. A 10 Day contract is almost exactly what it sounds like. It’s a contract for the greater of 10 days or three games. It’s a temporary deal designed to give a team a bit of help for a short period.

There are a couple of rules to consider with 10 Day contracts. First, a team must have an open roster spot to sign the player. Unlike last season, when teams were regularly given additional hardship spots due to COVID-related absences, that hasn’t happened this year. Fingers crossed we don’t get there either!

The second rule with a 10 Day contract to be aware of is that teams are limited to signing the same player to only two 10 Day deals. After the second 10 Day is complete, if the team wants to keep that player, they must sign them for the remainder of the season.

Going back to roster spots, here are the teams who can currently sign a player to a 10 Day contract:

*Oklahoma City is eligible to apply for a hardship exception to add a roster spot, as they currently have four players dealing with long-term injuries.

Of the teams with an opening, Miami and Portland are close enough to avoiding the luxury tax, that they could forgo signing anyone for a while. The Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Sixers and Suns are all tax teams and may want to keep their bills down. Over the years, the advent of Two-Way deals have allowed teams to get the additional help they need while not adding to their salary or tax concerns via a 10 Day signing.

One last thing: NBA contract become fully guaranteed if players aren’t waived by Saturday, January 7. A handful of teams will open up roster spots by waiving players. With buyout season about two months away, those teams could fill those spots with 10 Day players.

With 10 Day season now open, here are some players to keep an eye on to sign a 10 Day deal.

(All G League stats courtesy of RealGM)

The NBA Veterans

It used to be that an NBA veteran of more than a few years would never sign a 10 Day. Those players wanted full contracts or nothing. In recent years, veterans looking to get back into the league have been far more willing to go the 10 Day route. It’s kind of a prove-it process for them to show they can still play.

Carmelo Anthony

It’s a bit odd to see a 19-year veteran leading off this list, but Anthony belongs here. When we last saw him play, Anthony averaged 13.3 points in 26 minutes per game off the Los Angeles Lakers bench. He could use a 10 Day or two to boost his odds of catching on for the rest of the season somewhere.

DeMarcus Cousins

Cousins showed enough that he could have a backup center spot. He was effective with both the Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks. The question with Cousins: Will he except a role where he doesn’t play much?

Isaiah Thomas

Last season, Thomas used a series of 10 Days to show he could still play before signing with the Charlotte Hornets for the rest of the season. Thomas stays in good shape and could help a team looking for scoring and point guard depth off the bench.

Hassan Whiteside

It’s a little shocking Whiteside hasn’t signed somewhere yet. He was very effective on both offense and defense with the Utah Jazz last season. He may need to take a prove-it deal to show he can do that for a team this season.

The G League Callups

Most 10 Day deals come as a result of callups from the G League. It’s important to note that unless a player is signed to a standard or Two-Way contract with an NBA team, they are a free agent in NBA terms. That means that even if a player is playing for an NBA team’s G League affiliate, they can be signed by any NBA team.

James Akinjo – Westchester Knicks

The point guard showed a bit at Summer League in limited minutes. Since then, Akinjo has popped in the G League. 9.2 assists per game and some good three-point shooting could earn Akinjo a callup when a team needs point guard depth.

Chris Chiozza – Long Island Nets

Chiozza is a veteran of the G League-to-NBA pipeline. He’s been there done that. The reason why is teams know he’ll produce if they add him. Chiozza plays decent defense, rebounds well for his size (5-foot-11) and is a high-end playmaker. His shooting holds him back, but he’s a callup candidate for playmaking depth.

Gary Clark – Mexico City Capitanes

Clark is another guy who has done the G League-to-NBA path a few times. He’s a solid defender that can hold his own against most wings and forwards. Clark is also showing consistent shooting. He’s worthy of another NBA shot.

Sharife Cooper – Cleveland Charge:

Cooper is the equivalent of a 4A guy in Major League Baseball. Too good for the minors, but not quite good enough to stick in the majors. Cooper is using his speed to score a non-NBA deal, league-leading 25.2 points per game in the G League. He’s also upped his playmaking and long-range shooting. He’s another point guard callup candidate.

Tyler Dorsey – Free Agent

Dorsey was with the Dallas Mavericks on a Two-Way deal until earlier this month. He’s got overseas offers, but Dorsey is apparently waiting things out with 10 Day season open in the NBA. He’s an overpowering scorer in the G League. If Dorsey can ever translate his G League and overseas shooting to the NBA, he’ll be a standard contract guy.

Kris Dunn – Capital City Go-Go

Credit to Dunn for taking a route a lot of “failed” lottery picks won’t take. Often, those players head overseas or disappear entirely. Dunn has been one of the best all-around players in the G League this season. He’s scoring, passing and defending at a high level. One scout told Spotrac that “Dunn is the best perimeter defender not playing in the NBA.” He’ll get a callup at some point.

Tyler Hall – Texas Legends

Hall was described to Spotrac as “the best shooter in the G League”. At 47.3% on 9.1 three-pointer attempts per game, that’s probably accurate. Hall doesn’t do a whole lot beyond shooting, but a one-skill player is still a callup candidate. Witness Matt Ryan a year ago. He’s turned his shooting into multiple NBA contracts. Hall could be next.

Shaq Harrison – South Bay Lakers

Harrison doesn’t do a lot of scoring, but he’s been great in all other facets of the game. His defense keeps getting him NBA opportunities, and it probably will again. If he could shoot (he’s been an inconsistent throughout his career), Harrison would already be on an NBA roster.

Jay Huff – South Bay Lakers

One scout who saw Huff at the G League Showcase told Spotrac: “He’s the best floor-spacing, rim-protecting prospect around that isn’t (Victor Wembanyama).” That’s high praise, but Huff is shooting 36.2% from deep this season, while blocking 3.2 shots a night. That’s a combo NBA teams prize. Huff is probably better than a couple of the deeper bench guys his own parent club the Los Angeles Lakers roll out on a nightly basis. Huff is also only 24 years old and screams classic late-bloomer big man.

Alize Johnson – Austin Spurs

Johnson is a four-year NBA vet and he had a stint with San Antonio already this season. He’s the best rebounder on this list. If the three-point shooting and improved finishing inside are real, Johnson could be a good bet to earn a full NBA deal.

Jontay Porter – Wisconsin Herd

It’s been a journey for Porter. He’s been on and off the Memphis Grizzlies roster as he recovered from multiple torn ACLs. He’s finally playing consistent minutes in the G League and producing. Like his brother Michael Jr. with the Nuggets, Porter has stretched out his range. He’s shooting 40% on 6.3 three-point attempts per game. And that’s while providing some rim protection and rebounding. At 23 years old, Porter is someone who should snag a real NBA opportunity.

Luka Samanic – Maine Celtics

A scout at the G League showcase told Spotrac “Samanic is finally figuring things out. He’s huge (6-foot-10, but players bigger) and is putting his skill together with his size.” Samanic has always flashed, but he’s now playing consistently good minutes. He’s still a questionable defender, but a team looking for some scoring in their frontcourt should call up the 22-year-old big man.

Jay Scrubb – Lakeland Magic

Unlike what his surname might imply, Scrubb can play. He’s one of the best scorers in the G League, getting his points with a nice mix of inside and outside play. He’s also rebounding more than before and starting to produce defensively sometimes too. At 22 years old and 6-foot-5, Scrubb should get a shot from a team looking for wing scoring.

Zavier Simpson – Lakeland Magic

Simpson had a cup of coffee last season with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but showed a lot in limited minutes. He’s built on that with an outstanding all-around G League season. Always an aggressive scorer, Simpson is showing he can run an offense and make