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Each season, a handful of NBA players have contracts that are partially guaranteed or fully non-guaranteed. A large number of players have a guarantee date that is before or early in the free agency process.

As we did with player and team options, we’re going to try our hand at projecting what will happen with the partial and non-guaranteed deals that have early guarantee dates this offseason.

A thing that is important to note with non-guaranteed contracts: Unlike options, if a team doesn’t want the player, they must waive them. At that point, if they clear waivers, the player is an unrestricted free agent. The team that waived them has no form of free agent rights to make it easier to re-sign said player either.

Another key difference: Unlike pending free agents, who can’t be traded, non-guaranteed players can be traded, whether at the draft or in the offseason (prior to their guarantee date). The key is that players only count in trades for the amount of their guarantee.

(A guarantee date is included if it’s on/before July 15)

Atlanta Hawks

  • Danilo Gallinari - $21.45M, $5M guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/29/22: Atlanta is facing a pretty hefty luxury tax bill of over $14 million if they keep Gallinari around. Look for them to waive the veteran forward and try to re-sign him at a lesser number.

Boston Celtics

  • Al Horford - $26.5M, $19.5M guaranteed (fully guaranteed if Boston wins the 2022 NBA Finals): If the Celtics win The Finals, then this one becomes a moot point. Actually, it’s a moot point anyways. Boston will fully guarantee Horford no matter the outcome. He’s earned it and the Celtics need him.
  • Nik Stauskas - $2.2M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 7/15/22: Stauskas is probably in a bit of a wait-and-see mode. The Celtics may want to reduce their impending luxury tax bill some and could replace Stauskas with a rookie minimum player instead. This one likely depends on what Boston does early in the free agent process.

Brooklyn Nets

  • No guarantee decisions pending

Charlotte Hornets

  • Kelly Oubre Jr. - $12.6M, $5M guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/30/22: Oubre turned in his predictably solid season. He was a good scorer off the bench for the Hornets all year. Oubre seems like a no-brainer to be fully guaranteed, unless for some reason Charlotte makes an unexpected pivot towards being a cap space teams.
  • Mason Plumlee - $9.1M, $4.6M guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/21/22: Plumlee is in the same boat as Kelly Oubre Jr. is. He also turned in a solid year. If Charlotte stays over the cap, Plumlee will get guaranteed and he’ll be back as a rotation player. Also, like Oubre, he’ll be a potentially valuable piece of salary-matching in trades.
  • Nick Richards - $1.8M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 7/7/22: Richards will be back. He’s shown just enough promise to have his minimum deal guaranteed.

Chicago Bulls

  • No guarantee decisions pending

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • No guarantee decisions pending

Dallas Mavericks

  • Maxi Kleber - $9.2M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 7/3/22: Kleber will have his deal guaranteed. He’s too valuable as the Mavs main backup big for him to be waived.
  • Frank Ntilikina - $2M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 7/4/22: Dallas is facing paying the luxury tax, and could be deep in the tax if they re-sign Jalen Brunson. But Ntilikina became a key rotation player as a defensive guard. He’ll likely be back with the Mavericks.

Denver Nuggets

  • No guarantee decisions pending

Detroit Pistons

  • No guarantee decisions pending

Golden State Warriors

  • No guarantee decisions pending

Houston Rockets

  • No guarantee decisions pending

Indiana Pacers

  • Terry Taylor - $1.6M, $625K guaranteed, fully guaranteed 7/10/22: Taylor was a find for the Pacers last offseason. He became a solid rotation guy, and one of the NBA’s more unique players. He’s essentially a 6’5” power forward who does almost all of his work around the basket. The Pacers might go the cap space route this summer, but Taylor should still be back, as his hefty guaranteed amount indicates.
  • Duane Washington Jr. - $1.6M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 7/6/22: Washington is in a similar boat to Taylor, but without the already guaranteed portion of his deal. His place on the roster could be linked to what the Pacers do at the draft. If they bring in another guard, Washington could be waived. If not, he’s probably back for deep guard depth.

LA Clippers

  • No guarantee decisions pending

Los Angeles Lakers

  • No guarantee decisions pending

Memphis Grizzlies

  • John Konchar - $2.3M, $840K guaranteed, fully guaranteed 7/3/22: Konchar will have his deal guaranteed. His large already-guaranteed portion of his deal basically makes it a lock. But his fit as a deep bench shooter is valued in Memphis. The only way Konchar is waived is if the Grizzlies go the cap space route in attempt to lure from free agents to Grind City.

Miami Heat

  • Max Strus - $1.8M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/29/22: This is one of the bigger locks on the board. Strus is a starter on essentially a minimum deal. He’ll be fully guaranteed by the Heat.
  • Gabe Vincent - $1.8M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/29/22: Like Strus, Vincent is a lock to have his deal fully guaranteed. He’s become a key rotation player for Miami.
  • Omer Yurtseven - $1.8M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/29/22: Yurtseven isn’t the lock to have his deal guaranteed like Strus and Vincent are, but he’ll be back with the Heat too. He might even be the primary backup for Bam Adebayo next season.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • No guarantee decisions pending

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • No guarantee decisions pending

New Orleans Pelicans

  • No guarantee decisions pending

New York Knicks

  • No guarantee decisions pending

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Theo Maledon - $1.9M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/30/22: After a rookie season that showed flashes of promise, Maledon dropped off in Year 2. He’ll be back, because the Thunder aren’t in a space where they need to clear his salary. But this might be “last chance saloon” time for Maledon.

Orlando Magic

  • Moritz Wagner - $1.9M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/30/22: Wagner popped after joining the Magic late the 2020-21 season. He had another solid year in 2021-22. It also helps that his brother is one of Orlando’s key young players. Unless the Magic really need to clear his salary to chase someone in free agency, Wagner will be back.

Philadelphia 76ers

  • Danny Green - $10M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 7/1/22: The saddest story on this list is Green. He tore multiple knee ligaments during the 2022 NBA Playoffs and he’ll miss most, if not all of the 2022-23 season. At his age, there’s a chance the injury is a career-ender too. Unless Philadelphia needs to put his salary in a trade, he’ll be waived to help the Sixers clear wiggle room around the luxury tax line.

Phoenix Suns

  • No guarantee decisions pending

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Eric Bledsoe - $19.4M, $3.9M guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/30/22: Bledsoe won’t be back in Portland. He’ll either be waived (and might possibly have his deal stretched) if the Blazers are chasing cap space. Or he’ll be part of a trade package that sends him elsewhere.
  • Josh Hart - $12.96M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/25/22: Unless he’s part of a big trade package, Hart will be back with Portland. He’s too good to simply waive and his contract is more than fair value.

Sacramento Kings

  • Chimezie Metu - $1.9M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/29/22: Metu should see this deal guaranteed to bring him back to Sacramento. He’s been a nice find for the Kings and on a deal just above the minimum, Sacramento would do well to keep him around.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Zach Collins - $7.35M, $3.675M guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/24/22: Collins made it back from two years of injuries and was very productive for the Spurs. He showed enough that San Antonio will likely fully guarantee his contract, even if they are going the cap space route this summer.

Toronto Raptors

  • Dalano Banton - $1.6M, $150K guaranteed, $300K guaranteed 7/4/22: We’re including Banton here, even thought his deal doesn’t fully guarantee until opening night. With a decent-sized guarantee already, plus a good step up in early-July, he should be on the list. And he’ll be back in Toronto. He was a regular rotation guy for most of his rookie year, and the Raptors will want to see more.

Utah Jazz

  • Juancho Hernangomez - $7.4M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/30/22: Hernangomez is going to be a casualty of Utah’s mounting luxury tax bill. Don’t be surprised if he’s waived and re-signed though, because the Jazz did like his fit with the team after they got him at the trade deadline.

Washington Wizards

  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - $14M, $4.9M guaranteed, fully guaranteed 6/28/22: KCP will be back with the Wizards. He’s easily the team’s best wing defender. He’s also insurance if things were to go sideways with Bradley Beal’s free agency or recovery from injury.
  • Ish Smith - $4.7M, non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed 7/1/22: The Wizards should bring Smith back. They have almost nothing in place at point guard for next season. Smith isn’t really an answer for the starting spot, but he’s a good backup to have around.