The 2025 NBA Draft is now behind us. Normally, the draft features a lot of movement with players already on NBA contracts. This year, we saw only one trade that involved players already signed to NBA deals. While there were several trades made during the two-day draft, most of them involved shuffling around draft capital.
Of course, that was likely influenced by the fact that we already saw five blockbuster trades made or agreed to before the draft started. Those moves have changed cap space and spending power projections significantly as we approach free agency.
The 2025 NBA offseason looks like a weird one. The new media rights money will start hitting, but the NBA and NBPA agreed to cap the cap growth at no more than 10% from one year to the next. That means the cap is projected to go from $140.6 million this season to just over $154.6 million for next season. That $14 million jump is a big one, but it’s not going to result in a whole of cap space around the NBA.
The reason for that is teams have gotten really aggressive in recent years with extensions. More and more players are forgoing free agency and taking the certainty of extensions. In the 2024 offseason, the only big-name All-Star to change teams via direct free agency was Paul George. A few others moved via sign-and-trades and standard trades, but free agency itself wasn’t how stars moved.
That’s likely to continue in the summer of 2025. As you’ll see, there’s barely any cap space projected to be out there this summer. Also, the free agent class projects to be devoid of stars. Most of the All-Star level guys are good bets to re-sign with their current teams, or to extend before free agency opens.
However, that doesn’t mean having spending power is completely useless. With the Apron Era fully upon us, NBA teams are embracing exceptions in different ways. This summer, there will be some value signings available, simply because the means to overpay those players as free agents aren’t available. That should make for an active summer of role player movement.
In addition, it’s going to continue to be a big-time trade summer. If you want to acquire a star, a trade will be the way to do it. And there are still some stars reportedly on the market. Also, sign-and-trades may come back into a play for free agents in ways we haven’t seen over the past few years.
With all that said, here’s how things look today for 2025 offseason spending power around the NBA. For reference: The Non-Taxpayer MLE projects to be $14.1 million for 2025-26. The Taxpayer MLE projects to be $5.1 million.
(Note: These projections are made using the noted cap and tax figures above, draft pick cap holds based on projected standings and a projection on all option and guarantee decisions by players and teams. We have also factored in any reported trades and signings, as they have been reported. No other trades or extensions have been projected. We will call out where those types of situations could impact a team projection.)
Cap Space Team – 1 Teams
- Brooklyn Nets: $37.7 million in cap space
The Brooklyn Nets currently project to be the only team we can say with certainty will hit the summer with cap space. The Nets ate into some of that space by acquiring Terance Mann in a reported three-team trade with the Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks. Expect more of that type of thing to happen as free agency opens. Brooklyn also kept additional money on their books by making five selections in the first round of the draft.
What could swing this projection even higher is the status of pending restricted free agent Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe. If the Nets were to let Thomas and Sharpe leave town, they could create up to $76.3 million in cap space.
Here’s the thing though: Why let Thomas and Sharpe leave for nothing? Brooklyn isn’t ready to spend all that much, as they are in the early stages of their rebuild. Thomas and Sharpe are good players. With no other cap space teams out there, the Nets might be able to get both back on team-friendly deals.
And, of course, keep an eye on Sean Marks with restricted free agents from other teams too. When Brooklyn previously had copious amounts of cap space, Marks tossed around several offer sheets. In the end, no matter what direction they take, the Nets are in a great place to be active players this offseason.
Swing Cap Space and Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 2 Teams
- Detroit Pistons: up to $16.9 million in cap space
- Memphis Grizzlies: up to $3.2 million in cap space
The Pistons could be a cap space team this summer, creating up to $16.9 million to spend. That could aid in bringing back Malik Beasley, if he’s looking at more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE (NTMLE). If Detroit can get Beasley to come back for the NTMLE, they’re better off staying over the cap and using various Bird Rights to re-sign players like Dennis Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr.
Memphis is in a super interesting situation. The Grizzlies can’t create any kind of meaningful cap space. The most they can get to is about $3.2 million (this went down a bit after making the trade with the Orlando Magic), while retaining restricted free agent rights for Santi Aldama. That’s not normally enough cap space for a team to bother with, and they’ll just stay over and use the NTMLE.
However, in this specific situation, that could be enough to bump up Jaren Jackson Jr.’s salary to nearly $30 million in a renegotiation-and-extension. That’s an interesting way to use cap space, given the Grizzlies wouldn’t have to give up on Aldama to get it done. Keep an eye on Memphis shedding another salary or two, which would allow them to up how much they can offer Jackson. The goal is to get him to over $30 million for the renegotiation-and-extension.
Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 9 Teams
- Atlanta Hawks
- Charlotte Hornets
- Chicago Bulls
- Houston Rockets
- LA Clippers
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- San Antonio Spurs
- Utah Jazz
- Washington Wizards
This is an interesting group of teams. The champs, a few playoff teams, some up-and-coming teams and a few rebuilding teams.
Atlanta is still in good shape to be able to use the NTMLE, even after acquiring Kristaps Porzingis. The Hawks should have enough space to re-sign Caris LeVert, add someone via the NTMLE and fill out their roster without tripping over the luxury tax line.
Charlotte took themselves out of the running for cap space when they took on Jusuf Nurkic’s contract at the trade deadline. That’s fine though, since the Hornets got paid a first-round pick to do so. They’re fine being an NTMLE team for another season, as the rebuild continues.
Chicago moved Zach LaVine at the trade deadline, but kept everyone else. The Bulls will have enough room to use the NTMLE, as long as things don’t get silly with Josh Giddey’s new contract.
Houston is firmly in NTMLE range after acquiring Kevin Durant. They have Fred VanVleet to thank for the ability to use the bigger signing exception. VanVleet and the Rockets agreed to a new deal which lowers his salary significantly. That will give the Houston some nice spending power to fill out their bench.
The Clippers have done such a good job managing their roster and cap sheet. LA will be able to bolster an already-strong roster by adding an NTMLE signing to the mix next season.
Oklahoma City is in a great, but kind of weird spot. Of course, they’re the champs. So, that’s an awesome starting point. They also have a very full roster. They have the room to use the NTMLE, but the Thunder don’t really have a roster spot to do so, nor the need. And given they’ll likely be a tax team a year from now, there’s no need to start the tax clock this season.
It feels like the Spurs shouldn’t have much money on the books, but after bringing in De’Aaron Fox and then moving up to the second overall pick, they’ll be over the cap. And that’s fine. They’ve got a strong, developing roster and they’ll be able to add to it with a NTMLE player.
With John Collins picking up his $26.6 million player option, the Jazz will be over the cap for sure. That’s not the end of the world. This roster is really in flux. Keep an eye on trades as how Utah will get things done. If that frees up roster spots, then the Jazz might use the NTMLE for an opportunistic value signing.
Washington went the pre-agency route and took on salary for next season early by trading for Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart at the trade deadline. They then took on a bit more salary when acquiring C.J. McCollum and Kelly Olynyk. That will keep the Wizards over the cap. Don’t rule out a value NTMLE signing, as they did a nice job in the Jonas Valanciunas sign-and-trade a year ago, provided they stay under the tax line. But Washington’s real work will get done via the trade market, as they’re still in asset-collection mode.
Swing Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 5 teams
- Milwaukee Bucks
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Sacramento Kings
Another mix of teams that are would-be contenders, plus teams just trying to find their footing as they reset their rosters.
Milwaukee did a good job getting off money at the deadline. That will put the Bucks in position to possibly use the NTMLE. Yes, the Giannis Antetokounmpo situation is still looming, but the Bucks could make an impact addition while re-signing a few key free agents, including Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis.
The Pelicans are in transition. Brandon Ingram is gone, but New Orleans still has a lot of money on their books for next season and beyond. They added Jordan Poole and Saddiq Bey, which took on money for next year, while freeing up a bit more flexibility this season. They also moved up in the draft to select Derik Queen. A full NTMLE signing would take them over the tax, which is a no-go. But the Pelicans roster shuffling doesn’t feel complete yet.
Things haven’t gone as planned for the Sixers, as Joel Embiid and Paul George have been unable to stay healthy. With those two on the books, the team is very, very expensive. But Philadelphia might be able to squeeze in a NTMLE signing, if they make another move or two around the core group. Otherwise, a Taxpayer MLE signing could add some roster depth behind the injury-prone stars.
Portland is fairly expensive for a team coming off a tough season. That was added to when the Blazers acquired Jrue Holiday. But here’s the thing: Portland is trying to push forward this year. This roster remains flush with a confusing mix of veterans and young players trying to find their way in the NBA. More trade movement could come too. The roster is also relatively full, meaning that any kind of MLE signing might not be in the cards.
The Kings took on some long-term money by adding Zach LaVine and Jonas Valanciunas at the trade deadline, but they also got off some money too. Sacramento will be straddling the line of NTMLE vs Tax MLE. Hard-capping themselves at the first apron might not be worth it for using the NTMLE. A lot will depend on trades, plus what happens with Keon Ellis in free agency.
Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 4 teams
- Denver Nuggets
- Indiana Pacers
- Miami Heat
- Toronto Raptors
This group is a bit larger than usual. The Nuggets and are still title contenders. The Pacers are coming off an NBA Finals run. Miami is resetting, while the Raptors are starting to push their rebuild forward.
Denver should have just enough room to fit in a Taxpayer MLE signing. However, that would mean another hard cap at the second apron. The Nuggets might want to avoid that complication for a third consecutive season.
Indiana has said that they’ll go into the tax to re-sign Myles Turner. That’s going to be a somewhat pricey deal. That means Indiana likely won’t add, and maybe won’t even be able to add, a NTMLE signing on top. That leaves the Taxpayer MLE, which the Pacers might avoid using, simply to avoid increasing the tax bill even further.
The Heat moved off Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline, but they took on some other long-term money in that deal. Their roster is also mostly full. If the right guy is there to use the Taxpayer MLE on, Miami will do it, but don’t lock that in.
When Toronto extended Brandon Ingram, they pushed right up to the tax line. They have enough room to fit in a Taxpayer MLE signing, but will they want to? It’d have to be someone who can really lift the Raptors. Otherwise, this group will likely focus on bringing back Chris Boucher and maybe some smaller moves around the edges of the rotation.
Swing Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Second Apron Teams – 6 teams
- Boston Celtics
- Dallas Mavericks
- Golden State Warriors
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Orlando Magic
Six teams that all have playoff aspirations for this upcoming season.
Boston has shed enough salary to get themselves under the second apron and in position to use the Taxpayer MLE. They might not be done yet, as the Celtics could get to NTMLE space. The challenge is that they aren’t going to duck those margins just to go right back up against them.
Kyrie Irving taking a bit less in the first year of his new deal should leave the Mavericks with enough room to use the Taxpayer MLE. That will be the Mavs prime asset as they look for a get-by point guard while Irving recovers from ACL surgery.
Golden State locked into being a tax team when they extended Jimmy Butler. The big question: Can they fit in a Taxpayer MLE signing before hitting what would be a second-apron hard cap?
The Lakers situation will be determined by LeBron James and, to a lesser extent, Dorian Finney-Smith. Both are very likely to be back with the Lakers. On what kinds of contracts will determine how much Los Angeles has to spend this summer.
If Minnesota re-signs Julius Randle, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, they’ll be a second apron team. If they lose Reid or Alexander-Walker (or less likely Randle), the Taxpayer MLE comes into play. It’s really that simple for the Wolves.
Orlando might be a surprise here, but they’ve got a max extension kicking in for Franz Wagner and a near-max first-year salary coming online for Jalen Suggs. The Magic also acquired Desmond Bane, which didn’t really add any salary to the books, but rounded out the roster. Adding to everything there, the Magic have aggressively re-signed their own players, and this team is carrying a lot more salary than most realize. They’ve got a little flexibility to get under the tax line, but things are tighter in Orlando than they have been in years. The good news? The Magic don’t really have open roster spots anyway.
Second Apron Teams (no signing exceptions) – 3 Teams
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- New York Knicks
- Phoenix Suns
This group is in flux. Boston got themselves under the second apron. Milwaukee got themselves way under the second apron. Minnesota is harder to figure out until some of their own free agent situations are resolved, but might get under the second apron too.
Cleveland will join this group by virtue of acquiring De’Andre Hunter at the trade deadline, along with extensions kicking in for Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, with a bump up to the 30% max salary for the latter. The Cavs have never shied away from paying for a contender, so they’ll likely end up even deeper into the tax after re-signing a couple of key free agents too.
When New York landed Karl-Anthony Towns before last season, they basically locked in second-apron status. Yes, Jalen Brunson took less to give the Knicks some flexibility, but this team is still carrying a ton of guaranteed salary. That’s not the worst thing, given New York is a contender. But it’s going to be hard for them to do much, beyond minor moves around the edges of the rotation.
The Suns were getting close to out of the second apron tunnel. You could see the light starting to appear. Then they took on salary by acquiring Mark Williams. Now, Phoenix is dealing with all the same second-apron issued they battled last year. The roster is very imbalanced, so there is work to be done. Maybe those moves will finally see the Suns drop below the second apron, but don’t bank on it.
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© USA Today Sports
© USA Today Sports
© USA Today Sports
