In the wee hours of the morning on Wednesday, December 3, news broke that the LA Clippers were cutting ties with veteran point guard Chris Paul. The news seemed to first come via Paul posting that he was “being sent home” on social media. Fairly soon after that, the Clippers shared a statement with the media that they were “parting ways” with Paul. The team added that they would work with Paul on what’s next in his basketball career.
On its face, this would seem fairly simple. The Clippers want to move on from Paul, so they could just waive him. Pretty cut and dry. But in reality, this situation is far more complicated than that. But don’t fret! We’ve got you covered with everything you need to know on this breakup.
Chris Paul’s Contract
Chris Paul is on a fully-guaranteed, one-year, veteran minimum deal with the Clippers. That deal sees Paul paid about $3.6 million this season. Paul’s cap/tax/apron hit is about $2.3 million for this season.
Paul has no sort of no-trade clause. He was eligible to get one when he signed with LA, because of his previous time with the Clippers, but didn’t get an NTC.
That means the Clippers are free to trade Paul wherever they would like. But why would they trade Paul vs just releasing him? Let’s talk that next.
The Clippers Hard Cap Situation
The LA Clippers have a first-apron hard cap for this season. That came from using the Non-Taxpayer MLE to sign Brook Lopez and Bradley Beal this past offseason. LA is currently about $1.3 million under that hard cap. The Clippers also have an open standard roster spot.
That means that the team can’t sign a 15th player to a standard deal until January 7, when veteran minimum contracts will have prorated enough to fit in under the hard cap.
It’s also important to note that the Clippers can’t get around this by signing a rookie player (with one exception that we’ll cover in a moment). This is because rookies or players with one year of service count towards the tax and apron at the two-year, veteran minimum amount. So, there’s no relief there for the Clippers towards dodging the hard cap.
Why Do Roster Minimums Make Waiving Chris Paul Unlikely?
We covered above that the Clippers can’t sign a player for over a month to fill out their 15th standard roster spot. But, again, could they simply waive Chris Paul?
Probably not. At least not right now.
Waiving Paul would bring LA down to 13 players on standard contracts. NBA teams are allowed to drop below 14 players on standard deals for only 14 days at a time, and up to 28 total days per season.
Because Paul’s contract is fully guaranteed, there would be no cap/tax/apron savings for the Clippers by waiving him. That would only make things harder for the team to reach the roster minimum, while also staying under their hard cap…with one possible exception.
Converting Kobe Sanders to a Standard Contract
In a really messy season for the Clippers, Kobe Sanders has been a real bright spot. He’s become a rotation regular and shown real promise. Sanders has already outplayed his two-way contract about a quarter of the way through the season.
That’s good news for LA, because converting Sanders to a standard deal could be a workaround of sorts for LA with their hard cap and roster minimums. Because Sanders was a Clippers draft pick, he would count towards the cap/tax/apron at his actual minimum. That means that LA does have enough room to convert him to a standard deal.
There are pros and cons to that, however. The pro is that it would remove any issue of having Sanders on the active roster for games for the remainder of the season. As of this writing, Sanders has 35 games of NBA eligibility for this season. If he’s converted to a standard contract, LA can put him on the gameday roster every night.
On the flip side, LA has Sanders on a two-year two-way deal right now. That’s one of the most team-friendly contracts you can have, considering how productive the rookie wing has been. Yes, there are the issues of only being active for up to 50 NBA games, but Sanders has no cap/tax/apron hit while on a two-way deal.
Given how everything has gone for the Clippers this season, Sanders is a good bet to be converted. And doing it sooner, rather than later, could be a way to work around current roster issues.
One last thing: If Sanders is converted on a one-year standard deal, he’d be a restricted free agent this coming offseason. Given the Clippers could have in the range of $70 million in cap space this summer, that’s something to consider. They won’t want to let Sanders walk away for nothing, nor will they want to get in a potential tricky spot with an offer sheet either. The cap hit will be so small, that LA will for sure tender Sanders a qualifying offer if he’s converted, but his restricted status would be something to keep an eye on.
Trading Chris Paul
Because of his contract and the Clippers hard-cap complications, the most likely path forward is that LA tries to trade Chris Paul. As mentioned before, Paul has no recourse to block a deal. Because he’s on a minimum contract, any team without their own hard-cap issues can acquire Paul. Here are the teams who can’t fit Paul’s contract in under their hard cap, as currently constructed:
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Dallas Mavericks
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Golden State Warriors
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Houston Rockets
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Los Angeles Lakers
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New York Knicks
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Orlando Magic
Any of those six teams could acquire Paul, but they’d need to send some salary back to the Clippers to make that happen. We’ve seen minimum for minimum trades in the past, so that’s certainly a possibility.
When Can Chris Paul Be Traded?
The Clippers can’t trade Paul until December 15. That’s when the vast majority of players who signed over the summer can be traded. A handful of players have different trade restrictions, but Paul is trade-eligible on December 15.
What About a Straight Salary-Dump Trade?
Certainly possible. As noted above, most of the league can acquire Paul without any real issue. In addition, several teams are miles under the luxury tax line and could acquire Paul, then waive him themselves and eat the dead money cap hit without a problem.
The challenge here is that teams don’t do favors out of kindness, even during the holiday season. If the Clippers are going to dump Paul’s salary on someone, they’ll need to entice that team to eat the deal. That likely means sending a draft pick their way. LA does have a few tradable second-round picks, but using draft capital to dump a minimum contract would be really bad value and process.
What About a Buyout for Chris Paul?
A buyout is possible, but unlikely. It’s very rare that a player on a minimum contract will agree to a buyout. If things are so bad between Paul and the Clippers, and he has a new destination in mind, maybe it could be possible.
LA would certainly welcome that, as they’d free up even more room under their first-apron hard cap. But given that the Clippers seem to be initiating sending Paul away, there’s little reason for the player to agree to give any money back.
Could Chris Paul Retire?
Paul has already hinted that this will be his final season. He hasn’t talked to the media since posting on social media about his last trip to play in his hometown of Charlotte a couple of weeks ago. But he didn’t refute the ensuing reports that he was retiring either.
But here’s the thing, even if Paul retires, it wouldn’t create cap relief for the Clippers. They’d end up waiving him and he’d still go on the books as dead money. And if Paul retired and then changed his mind later, that could create a whole other set of complications.
Keeping it simple: Chris Paul may retire, but it won’t come until after his current situation with the Clippers is resolved.
So…What Happens Next?
For the next couple of weeks, probably nothing. Unless the Clippers are going to waive Chris Paul and convert Kobe Sanders, then this will drag out for a bit. Paul will presumably be inactive for each game moving forward, and LA will look to line a trade up when Paul becomes trade-eligible on December 15.
If LA can’t find a trade for Paul, then expect them to look at waiving the veteran point guard. From there, Paul will garner some interest on the free agent market. Teams are always looking for guard help, especially playoff contenders.
But for Paul, he has to decide what he wants to do. He self-limited his free agent market this past offseason. He wanted to be on the west coast and closer to his family. Is he willing to play out the final 3/4 of the season away from home to join up with a title contender?
Within the next month or two, at the latest, Chris Paul won’t be on the LA Clippers anymore. Where he goes next is, and is that of the Clippers choosing or Paul’s, is anyone’s guess. But we’re certainly going to see a different chapter than the storybook ending of Paul finishing out with his career with the team he’s most associated with.
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