The Las Vegas Raiders were officially eliminated from postseason contention following a Week 13 loss to the Chargers, putting a nail in what can only be described as a failed mini-reclamation project. First-year OC Chip Kelly has already been removed from the role, and first-year HC Pete Carroll is trending toward the hot seat this winter as well. The same will likely be true for first-year QB1 Geno Smith, who was signed to a 2 year, $75M contract extension this past April.

Financially speaking, the Raiders carry $119M of projected cap space against an estimated $304.3M salary cap for 2026. There’s plenty of room for additions - or maybe more relevantly, subtractions.

We’re projecting the Raiders to hold 10 draft picks in 2026, including three 4th rounders (Jacksonvilles, a Comp. Pick, and their own), and a likely Top 5 overall selection in the 1st Round.

Early Offseason Questions

  • Will LV move on from QB Geno Smith, despite an $18.5M guarantee in 2026?
  • Is the leadership/coaching staff in place up to the task of building this team into a contender?
  • Will Maxx Crosby truly remain loyal to a franchise struggling to improve?

Notable Free Agents

(Current Spotrac Valuation)

G Dylan Parham ($10M)
CB Eric Stokes ($7M)
LB Elandon Roberts ($4M)
LB Dylan Parham ($2.5M)
K Daniel Carlson ($1.2M)

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5th-Year Option Decision

EDGE Tyree Wilson

After a bit of a coming out season in 2024, Wilson has seen both his playing time, and subsequent production fall off this past year. The Raiders are almost certainly going to decline the estimated $20M+ option for 2027.

Bubble Candidates

QB Geno Smith

Release Candidate

Smith was given a 2 year, $75M extension in April that included $58.5M fully guaranteed at signing. The $18.5M guarantee on his 2026 represents the only dead cap on the contract in 2026, but it’s a pricey buyout nonetheless. Smith currently ranks outside of the Top 32 in terms of PFF rating, furthering the eye-test evidence that he just may not be a full-time starting quarterback anymore.

G Alex Cappa

Release Candidate

Signed a 2 year, $11M free agent contract this past March that included $5.5M, but all in 2025. The Raiders can move on this March for just $1M of dead cap, freeing up over $5M.

S Isaiah Pola-Mao

Release Candidate

A 2022 UDFA signing, Pola-Mao received a 2 year, $7.45M extension this past February to remain a starter in the Raiders secondary, but has struggled mightily through the 2025 campaign. His deal contains no guarantees in 2026, with $3.6M of space to be opened up by moving on.

EDGE Maxx Crosby

Trade Candidate

Before you cry clickbait, let’s be real here. Crosby put his faith in the organization by agreeing to a slightly less than top-of-market extension this past March, and has preached loyalty to the club wherever possible since. But if coach, quarterback, and a few defensive busts are moved on from this spring, and the cupboards look pretty bare for the foreseeable future, it’s perfectly within reason to assume that Crosby will at some point request a trade to a better situation. Crosby’s deal was structured “bonus-free”, meaning the Raiders aren’t on the hook for any new proration dead cap. A 2026 trade would mean a dead cap charge of $5.1M (from his previous contract), freeing up over $30M of space, and of course, bringing back a giant pile of draft assets in the process.

Potential Cap-Conversions

The Raiders only possess 3 cap hits north of $10M in 2026 (right now):

Maxx Crosby ($35.8M)
Geno Smith ($26.5M)
Kolton Miller ($22.6M)

If the Raiders are 1000% sure they won’t trade Crosby in 2026, then a simple conversion on his base salary makes a little sense, and would open up a maximum of $23.8M of additional cap space. Smith’s status is too up in the air to add more damage to the contract. Miller is rehabbing a nasty ankle injury (high-ankle sprain/hairline fracture), and could be moved on from after 2026.

But the real long and short here is that Las Vegas will enter the offseason at or near the top of the league in available cap space, and should only be looking to “convert” for more in the most dire of circumstances.

Related Links
LV Raiders 2026 Cap Table
Raiders 2026 Free Agents
Spotrac's NFL Offseason Guides