December 15 is a big day on the NBA calendar. On that date, the vast majority of the players who signed over the summer become trade-eligible. While NBA “trade season” doesn’t have an official opening day, December 15 might as well be it. Around the league, executives refer to this period as the “Early Trade Season”.
In each of the last seven seasons, the NBA has seen a trade made somewhere between days and weeks of “Early Trade Season” opening:
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January 15, 2025: Nick Richards and a second-round pick traded from the Charlotte Hornets to the Phoenix Suns for Josh Okogie and three second-round picks.
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December 29, 2024: Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton traded from the Brooklyn Nets to the Los Angels Lakers for D’Angelo Russell, Maxwell Lewis and three second-round picks.
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December 15, 2024: Dennis Schroder and a second-round pick traded from Brooklyn Nets to the Golden State Warriors for De’Anthony Melton and three second-round picks
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December 15, 2024: Thomas Bryant traded from the Miami Heat to the Indiana Pacers for a swap of 2031 second-round picks in a salary-shedding/tax avoidance move.
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January 14, 2024: Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala traded from the Washington Wizards to the Detroit Pistons for Marvin Bagley III and Isaiah Livers
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December 30, 2023: RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley traded from the New York Knicks to the Toronto Raptors for OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa.
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January 5, 2023: Noah Vonleh traded from the Boston Celtics to the San Antonio Spurs in a salary-shedding/tax avoidance move for Boston
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January 3, 2022: Rajon Rondo traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a deal that also involved the New York Knicks
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January 16, 2021 (this season worked on an adjusted calendar due to starting a month later): James Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets in a deal that involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and included seven players and multiple draft picks changing hands
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December 23, 2019: Jordan Clarkson was traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Dante Exum
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December 17, 2018: Trevor Ariza was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Austin Rivers
As you can above, last season saw four trades within the first month of trade season. That’s a lot of movement, including two trades that happened as soon as the players were eligible to be traded.
Sometimes the trades involve players where the teams had to wait for the restriction to lift, and other times it’s just time for a deal to happen. Often, these deals are the result of months of trade talks that finally come to fruition in mid-to-late-December. But one thing is certain: be on the lookout for movement when “Early Trade Season” opens on Friday, December 15.
One potential reason, beyond history, to watch for an early trade is the benefit of being an early mover. The new CBA has made it harder to make deals with hard-caps and more ways than ever to trigger them. Waiting until trade deadline week (or even deadline day) to make a major move might be hard to make happen.
Because of that, you might see sellers looking to make moves before the buyer market dries up as a result of various restrictions and tight margins around the tax and the aprons. You could also see buyers make a move early to remove the chance that things get too complicated to pull off a move closer to the February 5 deadline. In addition, the 2026 NBA Draft class is again loaded with talent and teams are going to want to put themselves in position to land as high of a pick as possible.
There’s also the idea that if you are acquiring a star, or even high-end rotation player, the longer you have them the better. Waiting until the deadline makes the end of the season a hectic sprint. It’s really only two months’ worth of games left after the deadline. That’s not a lot of time to incorporate new starters or rotation players.
We’re going to present the list in terms of teams to watch as early movers: either as buyers or sellers. We’ll break down why we are focused on these teams as the ones to make an early trade. At the end, we’re including some players to keep an eye on too.
Sellers
Brooklyn Nets
Related: Brooklyn Nets Roster
Players to watch: The entire roster except for the rookies
We’re back in the same place as last year with the Nets. Such is life in a multi-year rebuild. But until Brooklyn finds a franchise players, they aren’t going to be shy about moving players on and off the roster. We saw this last season with Dennis Schroder and we’ll see it again this season.
Michael Porter Jr. has played well enough that a team looking for some scoring punch could be interested, despite a somewhat hefty contract. A host of veterans are on good contracts and could draw interest. This includes Terance Mann, Nic Claxton, Day’Ron Sharpe and Ziaire Williams.
And then we have Cam Thomas. The scoring guard is in an interesting spot because he has a very tradable salary at $5.9 million. But Thomas also has a no-trade clause, because he’ll lose his Bird Rights if he’s traded. That gives him control over the process. Despite that, a trade probably gets done here, but it’ll likely be to a team that can pay Thomas this summer, even without having his Bird Rights.
If nothing else, the Nets will be heavily involved in trades by “selling” their remaining $15 million in cap space. Brooklyn will be everyone’s favorite facilitator as a third-team in trades.
New Orleans Pelicans
Related: New Orleans Pelicans Roster
Players to watch: Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Jordan Poole
The Pelicans have been the NBA’s worst team this season (or second-worst, depending on where you stand on the Wizards). Despite not having a draft pick this year, there’s a lot of buzz that New Orleans is ready to turn to the Derik Queen-Jeremiah Fears era. That’s not the worst idea, as there’s no use in crying over spilled milk when it comes to the pick being gone. If New Orleans can cash in and add future assets to build around Queen and Fears, then getting things moving is probably worth it.
If feels like it’s time for Zion Williamson and the Pels to go their separate ways. He’s a clunky fit with Queen, who the frontcourt should be built around. The injury history is too long. It’s just time for a fresh start. If a deal can be found, make it happen. If not, New Orleans needs to consider waiving Williamson this summer and putting it all behind them.
Jordan Poole could net a nice return if a team is desperate for perimeter scoring. But that one might need to wait until the offseason, when Poole will be on an expiring contract.
Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones are really interesting. Both are signed to good, long-term contracts. Both players are fairly plug-and-play guys. But both are also still young enough to be a part of whatever New Orleans is building around Queen and Fears. The Pelicans should listen, and if a team bowls them over with a massive offer, they should consider moving Murphy or Jones. Otherwise, hang on to them and see where things go the rest of the year and into the summer.
Sacramento Kings
Related: Sacramento Kings
Players to watch: DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, Dennis Schoder, Keon Ellis
The Kings have sent some mixed signals over the last year or so, but it’s becoming clearer by the day that they’ll listen on their veteran players. There are some big contracts in the mix, which makes a deal tougher. But Sacramento could also move early, while there more play with rosters, cap space, trade exceptions and room under the tax and aprons.
DeMar DeRozan seems to be the most likely to move. He has a semi-expiring contract, as DeRozan is only guaranteed $10 million for next season. He’s still a productive scorer and playmaker, and DeRozan’s efficiency is up this season too. Lastly, DeRozan is owed a movable $24.7 million this season.
Zach LaVine got off to somewhat of a slow start, but he’s come around over the last few weeks. He’s still a high scorer and hits his shots at a pretty good clip. The issues are the $47.5 million he’s owed this year, and the $48.9 million player option that LaVine holds for next season. Those are some big numbers for a team to take on.
When it comes to Domantas Sabonis, it’s about fit and contract. If you have a big who can protect the rim and play next to Sabonis, you’re probably good. He’s an elite rebounder and playmaker, and Sabonis has shown an increased willingness to shoot from the outside. But he’s owed $136.4 million through the 2027-28 season. That’s a lot of money for a big man who can’t anchor your defense.
Dennis Schroder feels like he’s perpetually available. He was supposed to be the Kings starting point guard, but that’s Russell Westbrook now. Schroder has a pretty tradable contract, which happens to fit into anyone’s available Non-Taxpayer MLE. There will be interest in Schroder, as teams are always looking for guard depth around the deadline.
And that brings us to Keon Ellis. He’s a good 3&D-plus perimeter player. Ellis is a good defender 1-3, a solid ball-mover and a very solid shooter. For whatever reason, Ellis has been unable to keep a rotation role under Doug Christie. One reason a team could move early on acquiring Ellis, is that he’s extension-eligible starting on February 9 through June 30. But he’d be bound by the extend-and-trade parameters for six months if he’s dealt, which limits the size of the raise and the number of years he can get. Getting Ellis any time before December 30 would allow a team to extend him before he hits unrestricted free agency on July 1.
Washington Wizards
Related: Washington Wizards Roster
Players to watch: Khris Middleton, C.J. McCollum, Cam Whitmore
Washington is basically in the same position as Brooklyn. They’ve got a couple of veterans they are open to moving in Khris Middleton and C.J. McCollum. And they’ve got a ton of financial flexibility into the offseason.
The Wizards should have somewhere north of $80 million in cap space next summer. Given they aren’t quite ready to go star-hunting yet, look for Washington to do a repeat of last year where they take on vets with more than one year remaining. That allows opposing teams to clear those contracts off their books, while the Wizards claim more assets for the future.
As far as younger players go, keep an eye on Cam Whitmore. The talented forward has fallen out of Washington’s rotation, reportedly because of issues with his work ethic and attention to detail. Maybe it’s a blip, or maybe the Wizards will move Whitmore to keep more minutes for the guys are part of what the long-term vision is in DC.
Buyers
Atlanta Hawks
Related: Atlanta Hawks Roster
Needs: Depth
The Hawks are in an interesting spot. They’ve played about as well as can be expected with Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis missing a lot of time. Atlanta has a lot of tradable assets, including maybe Young and/or Porzingis. And they’ve got some ok financial flexibility now and in the future.
The most likely path is that Atlanta makes a smaller play to round out their roster. But if a star is available, the Hawks have the necessary pieces to get involved in the conversation.
Golden State Warriors
Related: Golden State Warriors Roster
Needs: Functional Depth
Golden State is going to move on from Jonathan Kuminga. It won’t necessarily happen right away, as Kuminga isn’t trade-eligible until January 15. But it might happen as soon as they can move Kuminga. More on him later.
For the team itself, the Warriors are going to try to add some functional depth. They need enough good players to get through the rest of the regular season, because they’ll need to manage their veterans. But then they need players who be a part of the eight- or nine-man rotation come playoff time too. That’s how Golden State will use Jonathan Kuminga: either to add depth to fill out the rotation, or as the main chunk of salary-matching to add one more star to their aging core.
New York Knicks
Related: New York Knicks Roster
Needs: Frontcourt Depth, Shooting
The Knicks are good. Despite the Detroit Pistons hot start, New York is right there. As it stands now, the Knicks are probably the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. But there are some holes that need patching up.
The Knicks could use another frontcourt player. Ideally, it’d be a combo big that could play with either Karl-Anthony Towns or Mitchell Robinson in two-big lineups. They could also use more shooting, as Landry Shamet going down has left the team a bit light on shooting off the bench.
And, of course, the Knicks are hovering around the Giannis Antetokounmpo situation. Acquiring the Bucks star would mean reorienting this roster in a big way, simply to match salary, but the Knicks haven’t been shy about doing so. And, as we saw with the OG Anunoby trade a couple of years ago, New York won’t wait to make a move if one presents itself early.
Phoenix Suns
Related: Phoenix Suns Roster
Needs: Veteran Depth, Perimeter Defense
The Suns have been one of the most pleasant surprises of the early season. This team plays really hard, and more importantly, they play together. It’s a complete 180 from the past couple of versions of the Suns we’ve watched.
Hopefully, Phoenix will show some restraint and not put themselves right back in a tough spot with the cap, tax and aprons. But when you have some money on your books for players who haven’t really played, it’s tempting to move them in a trade to shore things up elsewhere. The Suns could use more veterans to round out the rotation. They could also use more perimeter defense, especially in the backcourt.
Assets are limited for Phoenix, but they’ve gotten things under control with the cap sheet. That puts them in a spot to make some moves.
Players to Watch
Giannis Antetokounmpo
It’s all about Giannis around the NBA right now. Unlike the shocking Luka Doncic trade, which happened under the cover of literal darkness, things seem to be shaping up for a massive round of trade talks for the Milwaukee Bucks.
All of the reports are congealing around the same thing: We’re at the end of the line for Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee. The discussions that the Bucks franchise player, his reps and the team’s decision makers are having are likely more about handling this exit gracefully vs trying yet again to rebuild around Antetokounmpo.
Once we hit the point where it’s a known thing that Milwaukee is moving Antetokounmpo, 29 teams are going to line up their offers. From there, it’s about the Bucks deciding on their post-Giannis direction, while trying to accommodate Antetokounmpo as a thank you for all he’s done for the franchise.
Anthony Davis
Do the Dallas Mavericks even want to trade Anthony Davis? Depends on who you ask. Or, better put, who you believe. Most have a sense that Dallas will listen on Davis, but they aren’t giving him away.
With Davis in the lineup, the Mavs have played better. Kyrie Irving is expected to return sometime in the new year, which will only further strengthen the team. But that doesn’t mean Dallas won’t explore moving their star big man.
Davis could return a haul for the Mavericks, while also likely pushing them into the lottery. That latter part is important because this is a loaded draft class, and this is the last pick that Dallas has control of for a while. And if Davis is insistent on getting an extension next summer, the Mavs could shuffle that conversation off to another team instead of locking in themselves.
Jonathan Kuminga
Things have run their course for Jonathan Kuminga and the Golden State Warriors. Everyone keeps saying all the right things, but it’s clear this is headed for a breakup. Kuminga isn’t trade-eligible until January 15, but the Warriors could line something up over the next month and then be ready to execute when the restriction lifts.
Kuminga is a talented player, but he’s never fully earned the trust of Steve Kerr. That’s had him in and out of the rotation, including being out of the rotation right now. It’s never going to happen for Kuminga with the Warriors, so it’s time to move on. And that’s exactly why his contract was structured the way it was, and why Golden State fought so hard to get Kuminga to waive his implied no-trade clause.
The Point Guards
This group includes Trae Young, Ja Morant and LaMelo Ball, who have all been in trade rumors, as well as Chris Paul, who is currently in exile.
Paul is the easy one. The Clippers are going to trade or release Paul eventually. Ideally, they’d trade him, so they don’t have to eat any dead money on an already-tight cap sheet. And that trade could happen quickly, as Paul becomes eligible to traded on December 15, and he’s already been sent home by the team.
As for the trio of Young, Morant and Ball, it’s a weird situation with all of these guys. If any of them were to be traded, no one would be shocked. Things have been bubbling with each’s respective situations for a while now. But it wouldn’t be shock if their teams felt like the value wasn’t there and they’re better off keeping their point guard.
Young is due a new contract, either via an extension or in free agency this summer, but neither Young nor the Hawks seem ready to part ways. Morant and the Grizzlies have been at odds, but recent reports are showing a willingness to make things work. Ball hasn’t been healthy and the Hornets haven’t improved much with him, but he doesn’t seem to want to move.
This group probably comes down to a team becoming enamored enough that they blow away the Hawks, Grizzlies or Hornets with an offer that they can’t say no to. Given the issues we laid out above, that might not happen, but there’s enough buzz that it’s worth keeping an eye on these guys anyway.
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