Offseason Approach
Continuing growing while waiting for right all-in deal
Actual Cap Space
-$101.4 million
Practical Cap Space
-$101.4 million
Projected Luxury Tax Space
$40.3 million
Under Contract (11)
Dillon Brooks
Tari Eason
Jalen Green
Jock Landale (non-guaranteed)
David Roddy (two-way)
Alperen Sengun
Reed Sheppard
Jabari Smith Jr.
Amen Thompson
Cam Whitmore
Nate Williams Jr. (non-guaranteed)
View Roster
Potential Free Agents (7)
Steven Adams (unrestricted)
N’Faly Dante (restricted – two-way)
Jeff Green (unrestricted)
Aaron Holiday (unrestricted – team option)
Jack McVeigh (restricted – two-way)
Jae’Sean Tate (unrestricted)
Fred VanVleet (unrestricted – team option)
View Free Agents
Dead Cap (0)
None
Projected Signing Exceptions
Non-Taxpayer MLE ($14.1 million)
(The Bi-Annual Exception is unavailable after being used to sign Aaron Holiday in 2024-25)
Notable Trade Exceptions
None
First Round Draft Pick
#10
Notable Extension Candidates
Dillon Brooks (veteran extension)
Tari Eason (rookie scale extension)
Jock Landale (veteran extension)
Jabari Smith Jr. (rookie scale extension)
Fred VanVleet (veteran extension – if team option is exercised)
Analysis
The Houston Rockets arrived last season in a louder way than was expected. After knocking on the door of the postseason in 2024, Houston kicked the door in and snatched the second seed in the Western Conference.
Yes, the upstart Rockets lost in seven games to the seasoned Golden State Warriors in seven games in the first round of the playoffs. But don’t miss the forest for the trees. The Rockets are here now and they aren’t going anywhere soon.
This is a big offseason for Houston. The front office, led by Rafael Stone, has preached patience. Stone has repeatedly said that the plan is to let the young core continue to develop together, while mindfully adding veterans to support that development.
However, there is a sense that after having a very good regular season and a solid showing in the playoffs, that Houston now can see what they need to push things forward and into contention for the NBA Finals. That mindset could lead to the Rockets making a big move or two this summer.
In many ways, things with Houston’s offseason start with Fred VanVleet. The team and VanVleet mutually agreed to push back the Rockets deadline for picking up VanVleet’s $44.9 million team option to June 29. That gives Houston the opportunity to get a better sense of what the offseason landscape looks like, and their best path forward with VanVleet.
If there is a big trade to be made for the Rockets, there’s a good chance VanVleet and his hefty, expiring salary will be a part of it. Houston could pick up the option and immediately put the veteran guard into a trade. Given the Rockets have enough clearance under the first apron, even with VanVleet’s $44.9 million on the books, they could even take on some money in a trade.
The next most likely path is to decline VanVleet’s option, while working out an agreement to sign him to a new contract. That deal would likely see VanVleet’s salary for the upcoming season come down by a good amount, but additional money would be added on in future years. Something like $75 million over three seasons, with $60 million guaranteed, makes sense for both sides.
The third option is to simply pick up the $44.9 million for VanVleet, then keep him on the roster into next season. That would give Houston a large chunk of salary-matching for in-season trades, and their cap sheet can support the big number.
Last, and least likely, would be to decline VanVleet’s option and let him walk in free agency. This doesn’t make sense for the Rockets or the veteran guard. He wouldn’t see more than the MLE in free agency, and Houston would lose VanVleet for nothing in return.
(Just to be clear, since this was proposed earlier this offseason: The Rockets cannot trade VanVleet now, using 2024-25 salaries, and the acquiring team declines the team option for savings purposes. In order for Houston to trade VanVleet now, using his 2024-25 salary, they’d have to pick up his option for next year first. Pending free agents, even those with options, are not eligible to be traded.)
We’ll come back to the team’s other free agents in a moment, as there are some key players hitting the market this summer. But we need to talk about the Rockets all-in, mega-trade options now.
Is it time for Houston to make such a deal? It probably depends on who we’re talking about the team acquiring. If Giannis Antetokounmpo were available, that’s an easy yes. He’d be an amazing fit, and he’s still got enough very productive years left to make it worth giving up considerable assets in a deal. However, it doesn’t seem like Antetokounmpo is going to be available this offseason.
If somehow Houston could pry Devin Booker from Phoenix, by offering the Suns back some of their own draft picks, plus matching salary, that’s also a pretty easy yes. However again, like Antetokounmpo, Booker isn’t likely to be available this offseason.
That takes us to Kevin Durant. Is Kevin Durant kind of a perfect fit for what Houston’s first-round playoff loss to Golden State showed they need? He sure is. The Rockets need someone who can efficiently create his own offense when everything else goes sideways. Also, Durant is known to be available and is expected to be traded this offseason. Should Houston go for him? Sure…if the price is right.
It doesn’t make sense for the Rockets to send the Suns back all of their own picks, young core players, plus matching salary (which would come in the form of rotation players from Houston) for a 37-year-old on an expiring deal, who has a long injury history. If the price comes down enough, then Stone should jump on it. Let’s say Houston had to give up a couple of veteran rotation guys and one Suns pick for Durant, and they had a good feeling he’d re-sign, then a deal makes sense.
We won’t go further down this speculative path, except to say that these are the real scenarios that Stone and his front office are playing out right now. Houston is very good. They might even be one player away from making a real run at the NBA Finals. But giving up everything they’ve collected has to be the right move, or they’ll sink things before they even start.
As for the team’s non-VanVleet free agents, Steven Adams has become the top priority to re-sign. He was an excellent backup for Alperen Sengun, and Ime Udoka even found ways to play the two big men together in effective lineups. Re-signing Adams won’t break the bank either. Something in the range of two-years, $20 million feels about right, given his role, age and injury history.
It feels like Jae’Sean Tate’s time has run its course in Houston. He’s become a solid role player on the perimeter, but the Rockets rotation is overstuffed with forward options. Tate will likely go elsewhere for more playing time.
Picking up their team option for Aaron Holiday is probably dependent on how the Rockets see the rest of the summer going. He was effective as the team’s de facto backup point guard, but Houston is going to put Reed Sheppard into that role next season. If Holiday’s $4.9 million option is likely to cause tax or apron challenges, Houston will probably decline it. Holiday could then return on a veteran minimum deal.
We’ll lump Jeff Green and Jock Landale into the same boat, even if Green is a free agent, while Landale is under a non-guaranteed contract. Bringing back both players seems unlikely, given Houston is adding another first-round pick, wants to re-sign Adams and is starting to push up against the luxury tax. Saving an end-of-bench roster spot for either veteran big man may happen, but don’t expect both to return.
At the draft, Houston has the 10th overall pick. They should be in best-player-available mode, but would do well to add some additional shooting to the roster. There are a lot of options for that around where the Rockets are picking, so they should come away with a future rotation player in the first round.
Extensions this summer are mostly about rookie scale extensions for Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason. Dillon Brooks, and possibly Fred VanVleet, are extension-eligible, but it’s unlikely either veteran will get an extension.
Smith hasn’t shown out like fellow top picks in his class Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren have. They’re probably getting maximum extension offers as soon as they are eligible. Smith is still more of a mystery box three seasons in. He’s a good player, solid on defense and on the boards. Smith’s offense took a step back last season, as he struggled to adjust to a smaller role.
There’s a good chance that Houston and Smith can’t come to common ground on an extension. For the Rockets to feel good, the deal would need to be relatively team friendly. In that scenario, Smith is probably better off betting on himself and taking this into restricted free agency in 2026. If he has a breakout season, there should be more teams with cap space who could entertain an offer sheet next summer.
Eason is in a different spot. We kind of know what he is: a ball of energy, who excels on defense and on the glass. A deal in the range of $18 to $20 million AAV makes sense for Eason. He should want a shorter, four-year version, while the Rockets should push for full team control over five years. $20 million could seem like a lot for a reserve forward, but Eason still has untapped upside as an offensive player. If he develops more on offense, Eason will make this look like a steal within a couple of seasons.
As we said before, this is an important offseason for the Houston Rockets. The toughest thing a general manager has to decide on is when it’s time to go for it. If he goes too early, his team might not be ready and may never get there. If he waits too long, maybe that window never really opens before the team gets too expensive to keep together. Rafael Stone has to thread that needle now, because his Rockets are really good already and Stone can’t mistime the launch window.