Breaking Down Russell Wilson's 5 year, $242.5M Extension

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertSeptember 26, 2022
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Russell Wilson’s 5 year, $242.5M extension with the Denver Broncos came with 2 years, $51M left on the contract he was acquired on. The new deal lowered his 2022 cap figure from $24M down to $17M, despite an increase in cash from $24M to $57M.

Structurally, the deal is a dead cap nightmare, as it contains a $50M signing bonus, a $20M 2nd year option bonus and a $22M 3rd year option bonus. These bonuses keep his base salaries & cap figures relatively low over the next 3 seasons, and also build in a 4 year guarantee with almost certainty.


CASHFLOW
Wilson will see $57M in Year 1 (3rd most), $85M through Year 2 (5th most), $124M through Year 3 (4th most), & $161M through Year 4 (2nd most). HIs $50M signing bonus ranks 3rd among active players, behind only Dak Prescott ($66M), and Matthew Stafford ($60M).

$135M of the $296M total value contract lives in the last 3 years of the contract. These years contain no full guarantees, and are considered “option” years for all intents and purposes.



CAPFLOW
As mentioned above, the new contract lowers Wilson’s 2022 cap figure by $7M, down to $17M. The Broncos also see a cap credit of $5M in 2023, as that hit drops from $27M to $22M. The deal includes a $35.4M cap figure in 2024, which should represent around 15% of the league salary cap for that season, a more than tenable number.

In 2025 however, Wilson’s cap hit is set to rise north of $55M. If the Broncos are comfortable with Wilson as their QB through 2026, they’ll most certainly convert some of the $37M base salary for 2025 into a signing bonus, lowering that year’s cap hit, but increasing the dead cap for 2026 (currently at $31.2M). This will all but ensure that Wilson sees out at least 5 of the 7 years of this contract.


GUARANTEE STRUCTURE
Wilson’s contract comes with $124M fully guaranteed at signing, including all salary and bonuses through the 2024 season. On the 5th league day of 2024, his $37M salary for 2025 becomes fully guaranteed, placing this deal as a 4 year, $161M contract for practical purposes out of the gate.

$4M of Wilson’s 2026 salary is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing, but with any form of salary restructure in 2024 and/or 2025, the dead cap should secure his 2026 salary anyway.


TIMING
The Broncos urgency to get a deal done with their new QB prior to him ever taking a snap for them may be a contentious decision at some point of this contract (positively or negatively speaking), Denver had a perfect model to piggyback off of in Matthew Stafford’s trade to the Rams, and eventual extension after a superb, Super Bowl winning, first season in LA.

Was Denver worried that the longer they wait, the more expensive this contract would get? Was getting in and out of the guaranteed portion of the new contract before age 38 important to them? Or were they simply charmed into locking up Wilson because of the immediate impact & charisma he brought to the organization, even before taking the field?

Only time will tell.


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