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Trevor Lawrence became the most recent young QB to lock in a blockbuster extension after three years of team control, agreeing to a 5 new year, $275M new money contract.

The deal keeps Lawrence under contract through the 2030 season and includes $142M fully guaranteed at signing. We’ll dive into all of the recently released details here.

Total Contract Value

With two years of team control still remaining ($5.6M fourth year of his rookie contract plus an exercised $25.6M option), Lawrence’s total value over the next seven seasons comes in at $306,341,000, which ranks 3rd among active contracts (Mahomes $483M, Burrow $310M).

The $275,000,000 in new money ties Burrow for 2nd place behind only Mahomes ($450M), while coming in $12.5M higher than Justin Herbert’s recent re-up in Los Angeles after his 3rd season.

Average Annual Value

One of the bigger headlines sure to be attached to this contract involves the $55M new money average salary, which ties Joe Burrow as the largest in NFL history (for now). But in greater context, the two AAVs remain very far apart.

For starters, Joe Burrow’s extension signed last September was done so in a year that involved a $224.8M league salary cap. Burrow’s $55M represents 24.4% of this figure. Trevor Lawrence’s $55M per year salary now factors into a $255.4M league salary cap - a 21.5% allocation.

Lawrence’s AAV % actually ranks 10th among active QB contracts, sliding in just ahead of Jared Goff (20.75%).

Furthermore, there are only two of seven seasons throughout Lawrence’s contract where he’s scheduled to earn at least $50M per year - 2029 & 2030.

Bonus Structure

Lawrence scored a $37.5M signing bonus with his new deal, a figure that ranks 8th among active QB contracts.

From there, Jacksonville built in FOUR consecutive $35M option bonuses through the 2028 season. This keeps the cap hits relatively manageable for the short-term, but will lead to accumulated dead cap at the back end of the contract.

The Jaguars will have the ability to spread out each $35M bonus over 5 years for cap purposes ($7M per year), or, decline the option and take on the full $35M cap figure all in one season.

Guarantee Structure

Lawrence’s $142M fully guaranteed at signing ranks 3rd all-time behind only Deshaun Watson’s $230M*, & Joe Burrow’s $146.5M. The figure consists of his signing bonus, 2024 salary, 2025 compensation, 2026 compensation, & $29M of his 2027 compensation.

By the middle of March 2026, the remaining $12M of 2027 salary will become fully guaranteed. This amount is guaranteed for injury at signing. In March of 2027, all $46M of Lawrence’s 2028 compensation will become fully guaranteed. That figure is guaranteed for injury at signing.

In total, the deal contains $200M guaranteed for practical purposes - all of it either fully guaranteed at signing, or vests to a full guarantee a year early. This $200M figure ranks 4th behind Watson ($230M), Burrow ($219M), & Herbert ($218M).

Cash Flow

The overall strength of this contract comes into question when dissecting it from a cash flow angle. But in the grand scheme of things, Lawrence has done fine in this regard.

Year 1: $39M (+$33.3M)
Year 2: $37.5M (+$11.9M)
Year 3: $37.5M
Year 4: $41.5M
Year 5: $46.5M
Year 6: $50.5M
Year 7: $53.8M

Lawrence will see $76.5M across the next two seasons, 9th most among active QB contracts & $34M less than Burrow secured. His 3-Year payout comes in at $114M, again 9th among QB deals, $32.5M less than Burrow & $19.7M less than Herbert.

Cap Flow

As you might imagine with a 5-bonus contract structure, Lawrence’s salary cap hits are extremely tenable across the early years of this deal. Things get awful fluffy at the back end…

2024: $15M (+$3.3M)
2025: $17M (-$8.6M)
2026: $24M
2027: $35M
2028: $47M
2029: $78.5M
2030: $74.8M

Jacksonville loses a little more than $3.3M of 2024 cap space per this extension, but they free up over $8.6M in 2025. With a league salary cap sure to blow past $300M in the next few seasons, Lawrence’s annual cap hits should be more than manageable until 2029, when the time to discuss a new deal (or a way out) will be in focus.

Final Thoughts

It’s clear as day that Trevor Lawrence’s negotiations targeted the Joe Burrow contract as its prototype. Many facets of the deal ($275M, $55M per year) match the Burrow contract exactly, while others (rightfully?) fall in just shy ($37.5M signing bonus, $142M guaranteed at signing, $200M practical).

Jacksonville’s ability to get this contract on the books this summer could have huge benefits down the road. Lawrence is entering his age 25 campaign in 2024, meaning he’ll have 5 full seasons before that “30 year old” red flag comes into focus. The Jaguars were able to spread out Lawrence’s $200M of guarantee across all 5 of these seasons, giving themselves more flexibility without having to worry about impacting Lawrence’s ability to max out a 3rd contract.

If all goes well, 29-year-old Lawrence should be walking into his next big contract after the 2028 season, with 2 years, $104.3M non-guaranteed remaining on this current deal.

If all goes wrong, it’s still going to be difficult to make this 7 year, $306.3M contract any smaller than a 5 year, $202M one. It’ll take a Russell Wilson type full salary buyout to walk away any sooner.