What's Next for Aaron Rodgers?

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertJanuary 27, 2022
© USA TODAY Sports

The rumors were bound to restart eventually, and Nathaniel Hackett officially becoming the Head Coach of the Denver Broncos today certainly did just that. So what does Aaron Rodgers' contract tell us about what his 2022 outlook is?

The Current Contract As Is (Very Unlikely)
Rodgers’ current deal contains 1 year, $27M cash left, none of it fully guaranteed at the moment (not until Week 1). However, the deal also contains $26.8M of dead cap stemming from the original signing bonus, a 2019 restructure and a 2021 restructure. Can Rodgers remain on this contract as is through 2022? A $46.6M cap hit says most likely not, as it will greatly impact the Packers ability to re-sign free agents and improve upon their roster this offseason.


The Current Contract, Restructured (Possible)
A discussion not being mentioned enough is the possibility that Rodgers will agree to come back to the Packers for 1 more season, but wants the ability to hit the open free agent market thereafter in 2023 - following in Tom Brady’s footsteps. This will require a restructure of his current base salary to reduce the $46.6M cap hit to a more manageable number. A full base salary restructure, while tacking on 4 void years to the back end of this contract, will drop the 2022 cap hit from $46.6M down to $25.8M, over $20M saved.

But would the Packers even want this? It’s strange to imagine Green Bay turning away from Aaron Rodgers if he wants to go the “1 and done” route here, but it’s a better business move for them to do so - unless they truly believe there’s a chance for a Super Bowl in 2022-23. Financially speaking the 2022 cap hit becomes a wash - either $26M of dead cap to trade him now, or $25.8M of active cap to have him back as QB1 for the season (after which a larger dead cap hit kicks in). But allowing Rodgers to walk into free agency without compensation seems like the wrong decision for the franchise. Rodgers is as valuable to a new team as he’s ever been right now, and the trade compensation packages being floated around the hot stove would allow the Packers to quickly rebuild in many facets of their roster, immediately. 


The Marriage Is Fixed, An Extension is Signed (?)
If the two sides agree that a few more years together makes sense, the conversation will quickly turn to just how that next contract should look. While there are an infinite number of possibilities in terms of cost and structure, I’ve gone with the one that Rodgers has always agreed to - a maximum contract. This time however, I’ve stripped it down to two new years (3 years total) - with a fully guaranteed structure. 2 new years, $92M of new money, a total of 3 years, $120M - fully guaranteed at signing.


New Money AAV: $46M (1st), Guarantees at Sign: $120M (1st).Void years help keep the cap hits somewhat “mild”, but there’s no question this is not exactly the most team-friendly contract out there. Call me crazy, but I don’t anticipate team-friendly being in Aaron Rodgers’ negotiation plans - yet.


An Early Offseason Trade (Likely)
If Aaron Rodgers is traded before June 1st, 2022, the Packers will take on a $26.8M dead cap hit for 2022, freeing up $19.3M of much needed space.


A Late Offseason Trade (Not Likely)
If the trade is processed after June 1st, 2022, the Packers will be able to split up the $26.8M of dead cap into $19.1M for 2022, and $7.6M in 2023, freeing up $26.9M of cap space in 2022 (but not until June 2nd).


An Outright Release (Ridiculously Unlikely)
The dead remains the same ($26.8M if released prior to June 1st, $19.1M/$7.6M if after), but they’ll eliminate all chance for compensation - including a compensatory draft pick. It’s a non discussion.


Rodgers Retires (Possible)
Until he speaks, this has to remain a possibility going forward. The financials become a little bit more complicated in this instance, as the Packers will want to use timing to make this work to their benefit. If Rodgers comes to the front office next month and tells them he’s hanging them up, Green Bay will do the following with his contract:

  • Reduce his 2021 base salary to $1,120,000 (the veteran minimum)
  • Eliminate his $500,000 workout bonus
  • Carry the remaining $20.3M as an active cap hit until June 2, 2022
  • Place him on the Reserve/Retired list on June 2, 2022, dropping the cap hit to $19.1M
  • His $7.6M void cap will hit the Packers 2023 salary cap

This allows Green Bay to retain his rights through all of 2022 (meaning a team will still have to trade for him through this season to acquire him), while reducing the cap hits they hold for him down to the dead cap numbers only.


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