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NEWS
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We're only a quarter of the way through the 2025 MLB season but it's never too early to look ahead towards the 2026 free agents. Spotrac breaks down all of the upcoming option decisions and predicts which players are likely to be available come November.
Summary
Projected Free Agents:
Alex Bregman
Cody Bellinger
Pete Alonso
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Shane Bieber
Marcus Stroman
Ha-Seong Kim
Seth Lugo
Jack Flaherty
Robert Suarez
Projected Returning:
Trevor Story
Tyler O’Neill
Edwin Diaz
Kodai Senga
Shota Imanaga
Joc Pederson
Frankie Montas
A.J. Minter
Wandy Peralta
Player Opt-outs (multi-year):
Players who have the ability to opt-out of a current contract after the 2025 season, foregoing future guarantees for free agency.
Alex Bregman (3B - BOS)
The Boras Corporation
2025: $40M total; $15M base salary + $5M signing bonus (paid 2028) + $20M deferred
2026 opt-out: 2 years, $80M total; $40M base salary + $40M deferrals + 2027 Player option
Bregman will almost certainly opt-out after settling for a short-term, high AAV deal with Boston last offseason. The Tigers (6 years, $171M; 2027 opt-out), Astros (6 years, $156M) and Cubs (4 years, $120M; 2027 + 2028 opt-outs) all offered higher guarantees but no immediate path back to free agency which emerged as a clear priority in negotiations. Scott Boras used a similar approach in 2024 with third baseman Matt Chapman who signed for 3 years, $54M (w/ opt-outs) before agreeing to a 6 year, $151M extension with San Francisco.
Prediction: Opt-out exercised; UFA
Trevor Story (SS - BOS)
Wasserman Group
2025: $22.5M base salary
2026 opt-out: 2 years, $55M total; $50M base salary + $5M buyout (from 2028 Club option)
Story can forfeit the remaining $55M owed on his current deal but Boston could void that decision by exercising their 2028 Club option. It would be a $75M commitment over the next three seasons and increase the total value of his original contract from 6 years, $140M to 7 years, $160M. Both scenarios are irrelevant since Story will decline the opt-out. That sets up a less than ideal situation for the Red Sox who have top prospects (2B) Kristian Campbell and (SS) Marcelo Mayer ready to take over the middle infield.
Prediction: Opt-out declined; returning
Tyler O’Neill (OF - BAL)
The Boras Corporation
2025: $16.5M base salary
2026 opt-out: 2 years, $33M total ($16.5M AAV)
Injuries have been a consistent issue for O’Neill but his production when on the field is evident. He’s played 100+ games only twice (since 2018) but hit 30+ home runs in both campaigns and a third season of similar production could position O’Neill as a top corner outfield option as we head towards free agency. This decision will ultimately come down to health and unfortunately it’s been more of the same for O’Neill who has already visited the Injured List twice to start 2025.
Prediction: Opt-out declined; returning
Edwin Diaz (RP - NYM)
Wasserman Group
2025: $12M base salary
2026 opt-out: 2 years, $28M total; $27M base salary + $1M buyout (from 2028 Club option)
This one is hard to predict with much confidence until we see how Diaz finishes 2025. The two-time Reliever of the Year has been less dominant since returning from a torn patellar tendon injury suffered during the 2023 World Baseball Classic and we need to see if he can reestablish pre-injury form over the coming months. Diaz is already well compensated and one of only five relievers currently signed to a multi-year contract with an AAV of at least $14M, so securing an annual raise could be difficult if he shows more signs of regression.
Prediction: Opt-out declined; returning
Robert Suarez (RP - SDP)
Amuse Sports
2025: $10M base salary
2026 opt-out: 2 years, $16M total ($8M AAV)
Suarez increased his 2024 salary to $13M by adding $3M from Games Finished incentives which are also accessible in 2025. His $8M salaries for 2026 and 2027 would be a pay cut and well below market value for a proven closer like Suarez so expect him to test free agency after seeing veteran relievers Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates, Aroldis Chapman and Blake Treinen agree to deals of at least $10M AAV last offseason.
Prediction: Opt-out exercised; UFA
Wandy Peralta (RP - SDP)
The MAS+ Agency
2025: $4.25M base salary
2026 Option: 2 years, $8.9M total; $4.45M base salary + 2027 Player option
Peralta already declined the first of three consecutive opt-outs that run through 2027 and hasn’t quite shown enough to forfeit the remaining guarantee.
Prediction: Opt-out declined; returning
Player Options
Players with an upcoming single season player option for the 2026 season.
Cody Bellinger (OF, 1B - NYY)
The Boras Corporation
2025: $27.5M base salary
2026 Player option: $25M base salary or $5M buyout
Bellinger declined a 2 year, $52.5M opt-out last offseason which prompted his trade to the Yankees but now the 2026 option value decreases ($25M) and the buyout increases ($5M) making a return on his current deal unlikely. Another multi-year guarantee should easily top the $20M Bellinger would leave on the table.
Prediction: Player option declined; UFA
Pete Alonso (1B - NYM)
The Boras Corporation
2025: $30M total; $20M base salary + $10M signing bonus
2026 Player option: $24M base salary
Alonso was already the most obvious opt-out candidate but his future outlook is even better now that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is off the board as a potential option for teams, not to mention his blistering start to the season. Both factors should clear a path for him to sign the lucrative free agent deal he was seeking last offseason. Alonso hired Scott Boras as his agent after declining a 7 year, $158M extension offer from the Mets during the 2023 season. The floor for negotiations likely starts at 5 years, $107.5M ($21.5M AAV) assuming they want to top that previous offer.
Prediction: Player option declined; UFA
Joc Pederson (DH - TEX)
Excel Sports Management
2025: $18.5M total; $13M base salary + $5.5M signing bonus
2026 Player option: $18.5M + 2027 Mutual option
Pederson can opt-out but Texas could void that decision by guaranteeing a third season at $18.5M which is currently a Mutual option. That would restart the 2 year, $37M contract they signed last offseason and raise the overall value of that deal to 3 years, $55.5M. His age, limited profile and disastrous start to this season make a recommitment unlikely so Pederson will gladly exercise the 2026 Player option and hope for a rebound next season if he can avoid getting designated for assignment.
Prediction: Player option exercised; returning
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF - ARI)
Magnus Sports
2025: $14M base salary
2026 Player option: $18M total; $13M base salary + $5M buyout (from 2027 Club option)
Arizona controls an undervalued Club option in 2027 so Gurriel Jr. will likely decline this option while he still holds the leverage. His modest but steady profile should earn him another multi-year guarantee at a similar AAV if he tests free agency.
Prediction: Player option declined; UFA
Frankie Montas (SP - NYM)
The Boras Corporation
2025: $17M base salary
2026 Player option: $17M base salary
Montas has been sidelined since Spring Training with a lat strain injury but we’re fast approaching a potential early June debut. That might be enough time to rehab his value ahead of a potential opt-out but Montas would need a huge second half and that’s hard to project considering his injury history. Instead, assume he will exercise the option and return on his current deal.
Prediction: Player option exercised; returning
Shane Bieber (SP - CLE)
Rosenhaus Sports
2025: $10M base salary
2026 Player option: $16M base salary or $4M buyout
Bieber was positioned to cash in last offseason but his short-term value tanked following Tommy John surgery in April. He rejoined the Guardians on a discounted 2 year, $26M guarantee with a Player option that will surely get declined if Bieber can return for a healthy second half. Cleveland proved to be a lucrative rehab destination for Matt Boyd in 2024 and could provide the same for Bieber in 2025.
Prediction: Player option declined; UFA
Ha-seong Kim (SS - TBR)
The Boras Corporation
2025: $13M base salary
2026 Player option: $16M
Kim had to settle for a below market deal due to uncertainty surrounding offseason shoulder surgery but his value might have been closer to $20M annually without the injury. Kim will surely opt-out if he finishes the year healthy but Tampa could complicate things by attaching a qualifying offer which was valued at $21.05M this season.
Prediction: Player option declined; UFA
Seth Lugo (SP - KCR)
Ballengee Group
2025: $15M base salary
2026 Player option: $15M base salary
Lugo signed with Kansas City as a starter after spending years in the bullpen. He immediately finished 2nd in Cy Young voting and was one of only four starting pitchers to reach 200 innings last season (Logan Gilbert, Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler). Even if he regresses in 2025, the 2026 Player option is already undervalued and Lugo (age 36 next offseason) should want to secure a more appropriately valued multi-year contract ASAP.
Prediction: Player option declined; UFA
A.J. Minter (RP - NYM)
Bledsoe Agency
2025: $11M total; $10M base salary + $1M signing bonus
2026 Player option: $11M base salary
Minter is likely to exercise his option and remain with the Mets following a torn lat muscle injury that will cost him the rest of 2025.
Prediction: Player option exercised; returning
Jack Flaherty (SP - DET)
Creative Artists Agency (CAA)
2025: $25M total; $20M base salary + $5M signing bonus
2026 Player option: $10M base salary + $15M performance incentives
Flaherty took a $14M ‘prove it’ deal in 2024 and capitalized with his best season since 2019. That earned him a significant raise this year and a Player option for 2026 which can vest at $25M if he starts 15 games. The likely earned incentives provide a nice salary floor if things go poorly in the second half but Flaherty has shown enough to command another multi-year guarantee at a similar AAV.
Prediction: Player option declined, UFA
Conditional Player Options
Players who can earn a player option for the 2026 season based on the vesting of a particular statistical threshold.
Marcus Stroman (SP - NYY)
Roc Nation Sports
2025: $18M base salary
2026 Player option: $18M base salary
Stroman has a conditional player option if he reaches 140 innings pitched this season but he’s already missed significant time and doubtful to reach that total.
Prediction: Not vested/available; UFA
Kodai Senga (SP - NYM)
Wasserman Group
2025: $14M base salary
2026 opt-out: 2 years, $28M total ($14M AAV)
Senga has a conditional opt-out that will vest if he pitches 400 combined innings from 2023-25 but the total is almost certainly out of reach thanks to shoulder and calf injuries that cost him most of 2024. Now he needs 228.1 IP in 2025 and only Sandy Alcantara (228.2 IP; 2022) has reached that threshold since 2016.
Prediction: Not vested/available; returning
Shota Imanaga (SP - CHC)
Octagon
2025: $13M base salary
2026 Player option: $15M base salary + 2027 Player option
Chicago can guarantee a 2028 Club option after either of the next two seasons which would escalate the total value of his current deal to 5 years, $80M but Imanaga would subsequently take control of a $15M Player option each time they decline to extend. That guarantees him $30M over the next two seasons with room for more if the option gets exercised. The Cubs should be willing to extend but Imanaga will surely opt-out if they hesitate.