Shane Bieber

Toronto Blue Jays, Starting Pitcher
Age: 30y-9m-7d (May 31, 1995)
Exp: 7.097 Years
Country: US
College: California-Santa Barbara
Drafted: Round 4 (#122 overall), 2016
Agent(s): Dennis Wyrick, Jason Rosenhaus (Rosenhaus Sports)
2026 Payroll Salary

$16,000,000

2026 Cash

$16,000,000

Career Earnings

$41,802,584

2025-2026 Free Agent (CURRENT)

Shane Bieber signed a 2 year, $26,000,000 contract with the Cleveland Guardians, including $26,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $13,000,000. In 2026, Bieber will earn a base salary of $16,000,000, while carrying a total salary of $16,000,000 and a dead cap value of $4,000,000.
Contract Terms:
2 yr(s) / $26,000,000
Average Salary:
$13,000,000
Signing Bonus:
N/A
Free Agent:
2027 / UFA
YOS @ Signing:
6.097
Year Age YOS Status PayrollAnnual Luxury Tax Tax % League Tax Cash Annual Cash Cumulative
2025 30 6.097 $3,172,017 $4,123,656 1.71% $3,172,017 $3,172,017
2026 31 7.097
Player
$16,000,000 $10,555,102 4.33% $16,000,000 $19,172,017
2027 32 -
UFA
Retained Salary
2025 30 $7,321,242 $7,321,242 - $7,321,242 -
2026 31 - $1,555,102 - - -
Year Age Service Status Base Salary Incentives Likely Incentives Unlikely Payroll Salary Luxury Tax
2025 30 6.097 $10,000,000 - - $3,172,017 $4,123,656
2026 31 7.097
Player
$16,000,000 - - $16,000,000 $10,555,102
2027 32 --
UFA
Retained Salary
2025 30 $7,321,242 - - $7,321,242 $7,321,242
2026 31 - - - - $1,555,102
Year Age Status Base Salary Cash Total Cash Cumulative Cash Remaining AYC Cumulative AYC Remaining
2025 30 $3,172,017 $3,172,017 $3,172,017 $26,493,259 $3,172,017 $9,586,009
2026 31
Player
$16,000,000 $16,000,000 $19,172,017 $16,000,000 $9,586,009 $16,000,000
Retained/Dead Cash
2025 30 - $7,321,242 $7,321,242 - $7,321,242 $7,321,242 $7,321,242
2026 31 - - - - - - -
Contract Notes

  • 2026 Player Option includes a $4M buyout

Source: MLB contract specifics generally collected from verified reports.

2024-2024 Arbitration

Contract Terms:
1 yr(s) / $13,125,000
Average Salary:
$13,125,000
Signing Bonus:
N/A
YOS @ Signing:
5.097
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2023-2023 Arbitration

Contract Terms:
1 yr(s) / $10,010,000
Average Salary:
$10,010,000
Signing Bonus:
N/A
YOS @ Signing:
4.097
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2022-2022 Arbitration

Contract Terms:
1 yr(s) / $6,000,000
Average Salary:
$6,000,000
Signing Bonus:
N/A
YOS @ Signing:
3.097
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2021-2021 Pre-Arbitration

Contract Terms:
1 yr(s) / $679,700
Average Salary:
$679,700
Signing Bonus:
N/A
YOS @ Signing:
2.097
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2020-2020 Pre-Arbitration

Contract Terms:
1 yr(s) / $623,200
Average Salary:
$623,200
Signing Bonus:
N/A
YOS @ Signing:
1.097
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2019-2019 Pre-Arbitration

Contract Terms:
1 yr(s) / $559,600
Average Salary:
$559,600
Signing Bonus:
N/A
YOS @ Signing:
0.097
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2018-2018 Pre-Arbitration

Contract Terms:
1 yr(s) / $545,000
Average Salary:
$545,000
Signing Bonus:
N/A
YOS @ Signing:
0
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2016-2016 Signing Bonus

Contract Terms:
1 yr(s) / $420,000
Average Salary:
$420,000
Signing Bonus:
N/A
YOS @ Signing:
0
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Seasons

7.097 Years

Career Earnings thru 2026

$41,802,584

Earnings w/ Different Teams

2 teams

Earnings Per Year

Year Age Team(s) Service Status Cash Total Cash Cumulative Awards
2016 21
-
Signing Bonus
$420,000
$420,000
2018 23
0
Active
$284,210
$704,210
2019 24
0.097
Active
$559,600
$1,263,810
2020 25
1.097
Active
$230,815
$1,494,625
 AL Cy Young All MLB (1st)
2021 26
2.097
Active
$679,700
$2,174,325
2022 27
3.097
Active / Arb Avoided
$6,000,000
$8,174,325
 AL Gold Glove:P
2023 28
4.097
Active / Arb Avoided
$10,010,000
$18,184,325
2024 29
5.097
Injured / Arb Avoided
$13,125,000
$31,309,325
2025 30
6.097
Active
Retained
$3,172,017
$7,321,242
$34,481,342
$41,802,584
Total      
$41,802,584
$34,481,342
$41,802,584
2026 31
7.097
Active / Player Exercised
$16,000,000
Total
$57,802,584

Earnings Per Team

Years Team Base Signing Incentives Cash Cumulative
9 $38,210,567 $420,000 - $38,630,567
1 $3,172,017 - - $3,172,017
Year Team(s) Age Base Signing Incentives Cash Total Cash Cumulative
2016
21
$420,000
$420,000
$420,000
2018
23
$284,210
$284,210
$704,210
2019
24
$559,600
$559,600
$1,263,810
2020
25
$230,815
$230,815
$1,494,625
2021
26
$679,700
$679,700
$2,174,325
2022
27
$6,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,174,325
2023
28
$10,010,000
$10,010,000
$18,184,325
2024
29
$13,125,000
$13,125,000
$31,309,325
2025
30
$3,172,017
$7,321,242
$3,172,017
$7,321,242
$34,481,342
$41,802,584
Total
$41,382,584
$420,000
$41,802,584
$34,481,342
$41,802,584
2026
31
$16,000,000
$16,000,000
Total
$57,382,584
$420,000
$57,802,584

Earnings Per Team

Years Team Base Signing Incentives Cash Cumulative
9 $38,210,567 $420,000 - $38,630,567
1 $3,172,017 - - $3,172,017

Injuries

Year Dates Reason
2025 CLE Mar 27, 2025 - Aug 22, 2025 Elbow (Tommy John)
2024 CLE Apr 06, 2024 - Sep 29, 2024 Elbow
2023 CLE Jul 15, 2023 - Sep 22, 2023 Elbow
2021 CLE Jun 14, 2021 - Sep 24, 2021 Shoulder
  • Nov 04, 2025 Exercised a $16M player option for 2026 with Toronto (TOR)
  • Jul 31, 2025 Traded to Toronto (TOR) from Cleveland (CLE) for Khal Stephen
  • Dec 06, 2024 Signed a 2 year $26 million contract with Cleveland (CLE), including a player option for 2026
  • Jan 11, 2024 Signed a 1 year $13.125 million contract with Cleveland (CLE), avoiding arbitration
  • Jan 13, 2023 Signed a 1 year $10.01 million contract with Cleveland (CLE), avoiding arbitration
  • Mar 22, 2022 Signed a 1 year $6 million contract with Cleveland (CLE), avoiding arbitration
  • Mar 18, 2021 Signed a 1 year $679,700 contract with Cleveland (CLE)
  • Mar 05, 2020 Signed a 1 year $623,200 contract with Cleveland (CLE)
  • Mar 05, 2019 Signed a 1 year $559,600 contract with Cleveland (CLE)
  • May 30, 2018 Contract purchased by Cleveland (CLE)
  • Jul 04, 2016 Signed a contract with Cleveland (CLE)
  • Jun 10, 2016 Drafted by Cleveland (CLE): Round 4 (#122 overall)
Year Team GP GS H R ER BB K HR W L SV IP ERA WHIP WAR
2025 TOR 7 7 34 16 16 7 37 8 4 2 0 40.3 3.57 1.02 0.71
2024 CLE 2 2 10 0 0 1 20 0 2 0 0 12.0 0.00 0.92 0.74
2023 CLE 21 21 124 56 54 34 107 14 6 6 0 128.0 3.80 1.23 1.76
2022 CLE 31 31 172 70 64 36 198 18 13 8 0 200.0 2.88 1.04 3.53
2021 CLE 16 16 84 36 34 33 134 11 7 4 0 96.7 3.17 1.21 2.61
2020 CLE 12 12 46 15 14 21 122 7 8 1 0 77.3 1.63 0.87 3.18
2019 CLE 34 33 186 86 78 40 259 31 15 8 0 214.3 3.28 1.05 4.78
2018 CLE 20 19 130 60 58 23 118 13 11 5 0 114.7 4.55 1.33 1.09

Calculated Market Value

$21.5M Avg. Annual Salary

Market Value

  • 4 years, $85,807,168
  • Avg. Salary: $21,451,792
  • MLB Rank: 68
  • SP Rank: 28

Current Contract

  • Free Agent: 2027
  • Avg. Salary: $13,000,000
  • MLB Rank: 133
  • SP Rank: 48

Comparable Players

We've selected the following players based on their age, contract status, and statistical production to compare Shane Bieber to.

Player Length Value Avg. Salary Age When Signed
Max Fried 8 $218,000,000 $27,250,000 30
Carlos Rodon 6 $162,000,000 $27,000,000 30
Sonny Gray 3 $75,000,000 $25,000,000 34
Aaron Nola 7 $172,000,000 $24,571,429 30
Averages 6 $156,750,000 $25,955,357 31.0

Base Calculated Value

After adjusting the above contracts as if signed at Bieber's current age (30), a linear regression is performed, providing us with the following initial value.

Length Value Avg. Salary
7 $181,893,943 $25,984,849

Statistical Comparisons

Now we'll compare our variables and Bieber statistically over the two seasons prior to their signing. In this case we're analyzing: GS/Yr, IP, K/9, BB/9, ERA, WHIP, FIP, WAR

Player GS/Yr IP K/9 BB/9 ERA WHIP FIP WAR
Max Fried
2023-2024
 21.50 5.86 8.92 2.51 2.90 1.15 3.24 4.77
Carlos Rodon
2021-2022
 27.50 5.65 12.26 2.54 2.63 0.99 2.45 6.37
Sonny Gray
2022-2023
 28.00 5.42 8.88 2.70 2.94 1.14 3.12 4.72
Aaron Nola
2022-2023
 32.00 6.23 9.86 1.68 3.86 1.06 3.30 4.24
Average 27.25 5.79 9.98 2.36 3.08 1.09 3.03 5.03
Shane Bieber
2025-2025
 7.00 5.76 8.26 1.56 3.57 1.02 4.47 3.45
Pct Change -74.31 -0.52 -17.23 33.90 -15.91 6.42 -47.52 -31.41
Median Prime % Change -16.57%
Average Prime % Change -18.32%

Calculated Market Value: Shane Bieber

After applying our Prime % figures into our base calculated value, we're given two values. The average of these values becomes our current calculated market value.

Terms Avg. Salary
4 years, $85,807,168 $21,451,792
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