Grady Jarrett, DT, ATL
Holds the 3rd highest cap hit for the Falcons currently, and has two years remaining on his current extension. Converting most of his $13.5M base salary into a bonus and tacking on a few new years could free up over $10M of 2021 space.
Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
Jackson is now guaranteed almost $25M over the next two seasons, a starting point figure when outlining upfront guarantees for his looming multi-year extension. Despite a bit of a step back in 2020, the dynamic 24 year old carries a $42M valuation in our system. Deshaun Watson’s $73M guaranteed at sign is the number to watch for.
Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
Andrews has been both consistent & reliable over 3 solid years in Baltimore. A nice offseason for free agent TEs has vaulted his valuation from $11M, to nearly $13M. Something in the 4 for $50M range should get it done.
Josh Allen, QB, BUF
With big steps forward in 2020, Allen has put the Bills in legitimate contention, and himself in legitimate conversation for the next monster pay day. His valuation numbers compare favorably to Lamar Jackson’s so it’s possible we see very similar contracts for these two players in the coming weeks. He’s got $26.5M locked in over the next two seasons already, so adding another $170M or so over four new seasons seems about right, $75M guaranteed at the outset.
Tremaine Edmunds, ILB, BUF
The #16 overall selection in 2018 had his option picked up, locking in nearly $15M over the next two seasons. Edmunds just turned 23 so there’s zero concern about longevity here, but it also means the Bills can probably wait a year to get this one done. Myles Jack (4 yrs/$57M, $33M GTD) is a likely comp.
Taylor Moton, OT, CAR
Moton resides on a $13.7M franchise tag currently, with the rest of the OL (and the QB) in “wait and see mode”. It’s never a bad time to lock in a good young offensive lineman, but with the right tackle market trending toward $18M a year, it won’t be a cheap decision.
Allen Robinson, WR CHI
A divorce between A-Rob and the Bears seemed imminent just a few months ago, but the selection of Justin Fields could signal a bright future for Chicago’s passing game. The Bears could use some cap flexibility, and extending off of Robinson’s $17.8M tag would certainly help that cause, but it will take a blockbuster to get it done. Keenan Allen’s $20.025M deal should be a starting point.
Roquan Smith, LB, CHI
While the advanced metrics haven’t been fond of Smith over his first three seasons, but it’s hard to ignore 360 tackles and a good amount of pass rush production. Smith had his best season to date in 2020, and now has $12.8M fully guaranteed through 2022. There’s a good chance he’s involved in resetting this ILB market in the coming months, pushing past C.J. Mosley’s $17M mark.
Jessie Bates, FS, CIN
The Bengals D hasn’t had much to talk about of late, but Bates is clearly an exception. With 3 picks in each of his first three seasons, and 320 tackles during that span, he’s been a force in all facets of the game. Now extension eligible, Bates will be looking to cash in on Justin Simmons’ recent 4 yr, $61M extension in Denver.
Baker Mayfield, QB, CLE
The Browns spent the offseason adding fuel to an already solid defensive fire, and may turn their focus to locking a few more notable offensive weapons now, starting with their franchise QB. Baker has posted back to back Top 10 QB seasons in Cleveland but his overall production values him well below that of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. A big 2021 could easily push him north of the $40M mark, so waiting to sign Baker could be risky business.
Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
The Browns gave Kareem Hunt a 2 year, $12M extension before the 2020 season, guaranteeing him through the 2021 campaign. It seems more and more likely that Chubb will be allowed to play out his rookie contract, putting him in line for a 2022 franchise tag. He carries a $12M valuation currently.
Wyatt Teller, OG, CLE
Acquired from Buffalo for a few late round picks, Teller graded out as PFF’s #1 guard in 2020, despite playing just 11 games. He enters a contract year in 2021, valuing just under $12M in our system, comping well to Ali Marpet (TB, 5 yrs, $54M).
Connor Williams OG, DAL
With increased role came increased stability and reliability from Williams in 2020. The Cowboys have bigtime contracts for their LT, RT, & RG already, but if Williams is primed to be the LG of the future, it’ll be sooner rather than later. He enters a contract year in 2021.
Bradley Chubb, EDGE, DEN
Chubb now has $17M fully guaranteed through 2022 with his option exercised and posted a solid 2020 campaign after an injury riddled 2019. He seems worthy of a multi-year extension, though his production and time missed have him valuing much less ($20M)than the other young edge defenders who have locked in contracts of late.
Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN
Sutton has shown enough to prove he’s got a WR1 ceiling in him, but a serious knee injury slowed that process last season. He’s entering a contract year now, and the Broncos may want to see him fully recovered before locking him in. He’s a pretty good comp. for Kenny Golladay right now, who just cashed in $18M per year in NY.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
Who knows. Rodgers has 3 years, $73.8M left on his current deal, which means he’s a year away from being in a real conversation about extending under normal circumstances. If any of the current rift can be fixed with money, Green Bay will likely comply. A simple restructure that pulls cash in from 2022 to 2021 is an easy move, and something the Falcons did with Julio Jones of late to keep him in the fold. Statistically speaking, Rodgers values around the $43M mark.
Davante Adams, WR, GB
The 28-year-old remains one of the best WRs in the game, entering a contract year in 2021. Whether he stays or finds a new home, Adams is about to reset the WR market financially, currently valuing at $25M - 5 years, $125M.
Darius Leonard, LB, IND
Leonard does have pass rush ability/production in him, but his bread and butter more horizontal, and he’s been outstanding for 3 years in this regard. He should blow past Bobby Wagner’s current $18M mark when the Colts finally get this deal done.
Braden Smith, OT, IND
Smith has improved in each of his first three seasons, and has spent time both inside and outside the Colts OL, a major advantage come payday. He’ll be right there with Taylor Moton as the next big RT contract in the game.
DJ Chark, WR, JAX
One of the more underrated weapons in the game, Chark should have a chance to flourish with Trevor Lawrence now in the fold. Jacksonville may do well to lock in something before that happens. An age adjusted version of Corey Davis’ recent deal with the Jets makes sense (around $13M per).
Tyrann Mathieu, S, KC
Still one of the most versatile defensive backs in the game, Mathieu is carrying a high cap figure for the loaded Chiefs. A continuation of this marriage seems imminent, so lowering cap while extending out a few years makes sense for both sides. He values to the exact price he currently sits at, $14M.
Orlando Brown Jr., OT, KC
Sure, the Chiefs have stated that they won’t be addressing Brown’s expiring contract until later, but if he looks like the guy who can keep Mahomes upright for the next 4-5 years, this may get done sooner than anticipated. He’ll likely push past the $18M/year deal Kolton Miller locked in with the Raiders.
Derek Carr, QB, LV
Who knows. The Raiders followed up a strong finish to 2020 by dismantling their offensive line, and trying to rebuild their secondary on the fly. It’s not perfectly clear who the Raiders are, but if Derek Carr shows like he did last season, locking him in at some point this year seems a no brainer. A cap adjusted version of Ryan Tannehill’s extension in Tennessee makes sense ($32M/year).
Mike Williams, WR, LAC
He’s set to play on a $15M, but with less than 50 catches in each of his first four seasons, he certainly hasn’t give LA #7 overall ROI. That’s subject to change as Corey Davis showed us last year in Tennessee, and the Chargers will likely wait and see if another year with Herbert can bring out that potential before locking in anything long term.
Darious Williams, CB, LAR
The Rams possessed the #4 & #9 ranked cornerback in football last year according to PFF, and Jalen Ramsey wasn’t the #4. Williams has been one of the best kept secrets in the game over the past two seasons, after a mid-season waiver claim away from Baltimore in 2018. The Rams slapped a first-round restricted tender on him this year, which comes with a $4.7M salary. His baseline valuation comes in north of $15M.
Austin Corbett, OG, LAR
Corbett had breakout campaign in 2020 after being shipped out of Cleveland to make way for Wyatt Teller. He’ll man the right side of Matthew Stafford’s line in 2021, entering a contract year. With versatility to move around the line, Corbett should be a priority to keep around, and values at around $9M per year.
Mike Gesicki, TE, MIA
While his production hasn’t jumped off the page yet, his role and success has improved each of his first three seasons in Miami. With more depth in the weapons around him, Gesicki could find enough space this year to breakout in a contract season - always a good thing when it comes to paychecks. He’s a poor man’s Austin Hooper for now ($10M).
Brian O’Neill, RT, MIN
It’s a good year to be a right tackle in need of an extension, as the numbers should jump up at the top of the list. This likely means a few extra million for O’Neill, who’s solidified his role with three straight years of improvement in Minnesota. He’s about a $7.5M player right now.
Harrison Smith, S, MIN
Smith posted another solid campaign in 2020 and is set to enter a contract year in Minnesota. At 32, there’s some question about his age, but a 2 year extension in the $22M range should suffice.
Ryan Ramczyk, RT, NO
Another RT in need of a pay day. Like Taylor Moton & Braden Smith, this market should push forward from its current $14M ceiling. Ramczyk projects to a deal in the $16M per year market.
Marcus Williams, S, NO
While the numbers over the past few years aren’t quite on par with a Justin Simmons or even an Eddie Jackson, Williams should have no trouble eclipsing the current high mark for free safeties at $15.25M. 4 years, $62M should get it done.
Deonte Harris, WR, NO
This one’s a little out of the box, as Harris is entering year 3 of his undrafted rookie contract, with restricted free agency in front of him. But the Saints do business differently than most, and Harris could be in line for a heavily increased role in 2021. Getting a short term extension on the books now before a potential breakout could prove smart. 2 years, $5M might be in the ballpark.
Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG
Barkley is recovering from a torn ACL, so the timing for a bigtime extension might not be perfect, but the Giants seem prepared to get this done in the coming weeks. Though the calculated valuation comes in just over $14M, it’ll be a surprise if Barkley doesn’t eclipse Christian McCaffrey’s $16.01M mark.
Marcus Maye, S, NYJ
Like Marcus Williams, the overall production doesn’t value him as a $15M safety on paper ($13.2M), but age, ability, & his importance to the Jets defense probably vault him into this conversation.
Derek Barnett, DE, PHI
While he hasn’t quite lived up to his #14 overall selection status, Barnett seems a viable option for edge production going forward. With $12.2M fully guaranteed over the next few seasons, a Shaq Lawson-type contract seems to fit the bill here (4 years, $40M extension).
T.J. Watt, EDGE, PIT
Another Watt primed for a major payday, T.J.’s overall lives somewhere in between Myles Garrett & Joey Bosa, providing him a calculated valuation of $25.4M. With that said, Bosa’s $27M high mark is likely in danger here.
Fred Warner, ILB, SF
The 2020 LB of the year according to PFF, Warner is entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2021. He holds a calculated value just north of $17M per year, but should be in serious consideration for resetting this market past Bobby Wagner’s $18M mark, with 60% guaranteed.
Jamal Adams, S, SEA
The Seahawks acquired Adams for a player, 2 firsts & a third last July. Translation: they’re going to soon make him the highest average paid safety in football, even though statistically speaking his best comp is currently Landon Collins ($14M, WAS). $60M+ over 4 years, 55% guaranteed should be in the cards.
Chris Godwin, WR, TB
Was 2019 an anomaly? 3 out of Godwin’s 4 seasons were above average, but not elite - statistically speaking. It’s also difficult to see him garnering top WR money in a TB arsenal where he’ll remain a WR2 by committee in Tom Brady’s offense. With that said, his best comp is Kenny Golladay’s new 4 year, $72M deal with the Giants.
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, TB
JPP isn’t going to be the hell-raiser he once was, but he’s been consistently productive at the level he’s molded into late in his career. A deal slightly less than the one he’s set to finish out makes sense to stick with TB (2 yrs, $22M).
Brandon Scherff, OG, WAS
At his best, Scherff projects as one of the top interior linemen in all of football. But missed games and below average sacks allowed numbers keep his calculated value well below top billing ($12M). With that said, Washington slapped an $18M franchise tag on him this season, which brings a whole new element to the negotiating table. A 4 year, $64M extension still seems the endgame here.
Jonathan Allen, DT, WAS
The WFT defense can’t stay young and cheap forever. Allen could be the first to lock in a rookie extension, currently carrying a calculated valuation north of $11M. 4 years, $44M tacked onto his $10M option is about right.