NFL Free Agents Analysis

Tracking the status and signings of all NFL free agents.

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Defensive Tackle, KC, 30

Jones was looking for $30M per year this time last offseason. An unsuccessful holdout & a great 2023 campaign and a $33M+ franchise tag value keeps that hope alive this time around. One of the best interior DLs of this generation should have no trouble securing his asking price on the open market, but we’ll predict a slightly less figure to return to KC (again). Projected Contract: 3 years, $85M ($75M guaranteed)


Safety, TB, 26

An absolute stud, both in the pass & run defense from a position that has become about as important as any in the modern game. The stats speak for themselves here, so Winfield scoring north of the top metrics ($19.1M AAV, $42M guaranteed) seems like a lock. There’s almost certainly a $16M franchise tag offer coming, but a 5 year, $100M extension could be as well.


Quarterback, MIN, 36

Cousins may have a playoff stigma attached to him, but every other facet of his resume is above average. He nears the open market recovering from a torn Achilles, so that plus age are certainly worth paying attention to here. A return to Minnesota on a 3 year, $120M contract ($80M guaranteed) should keep both sides happy.


Outside Linebacker, JAX, 27

Allen had been solid, but not necessarily dominating, leading up to the 2023 campaign. That changed this season, as the former #7 overall pick secured 17.5 sacks, 66 tackles, 2 forced fumbles and a pick for Jacksonville. He’s a lock for a $22M franchise tag offer, calculating toward a 4 year, $96M extension in our system this offseason.


Wide Receiver, TB, 31

All Mike Evans does is catch 70+ passes, garner 1,000+ yards, and find the endzone 10+ times a year. Father time isn’t here for him yet, but the open market could be. Evans is a $24M per year player in our system, but a 3 year, $80M deal (Cooper Kupp in LA) could very well be in the cards here.


Defensive End, CAR, 26

Burns has done everything well, but still may not be categorized as “elite” in many eyes. That won’t stop Carolina from slapping a $22M tag on the 25-year-old this month. There are serious tag & trade vibes here, but Burns currently projects toward a 5 year, $110M extension in our system.


Defensive Tackle, BAL, 27

An example of a player who has progressed every year of his NFL career to date - with an explosion of production right before free agency. Madubuike should be the latest member of the Ravens’ defense to break the bank this March, currently projecting toward a 4 year, $82M contract in our system.


Cornerback, CHI, 25

Johnson has missed action in each of his first 4 NFL seasons, but the overall resume, plus an extremely productive walk year makes him the most attractive cornerback set to hit the open market. Chicago almost certainly won’t let him get there, slapping an $18M+ tag on him this month. Johnson projects toward a 5 year, $80M contract in our system.


Wide Receiver, CIN, 25

Higgins will be higher on many other lists, and the overall resume is certainly excellent, but the red flags (most notably the drop rate) won’t go unnoticed by some organizations. It’s likely a moot point however, as Cincinnati seems poised to slap a $20M+ tag on him this month. Higgins projects toward a 4 year, $75M contract in our system right now.


Wide Receiver, IND, 27

It’s been 3 really solid seasons for Pittman, despite multiple QB/Coordinator changes to adjust to. The Colts should be prepared to offer the $20M+ franchise tag this month, if for nothing else than to buy them more time to negotiate his multi-year guarantee. Pittman, who projects toward a 4 year, $90M contract in our system, carries the same agent (Athlete’s First) as Tee Higgins.


Cornerback, KC, 27

Sneed is a strong outside coverage cornerback with the aggressiveness and mindset of a do-it-all safety. This type of resume has generally led to bigger paydays on the open market of late. Sneed is a $16M+ per year player in our system, but Xavien Howard’s $18M per year deal in Miami is a likely target here.


Defensive Tackle, LV, 29

Wilkins saved the best for last, pumping out 9 sacks in his 5th season with the Dolphins. He doesn’t have the resume to mathematically put himself in the Montez Sweat ($24.5M) or Quinnen Williams ($24M) conversation, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t belong there. Miami isn’t in healthy cap shape right now, so a $20M+ tag for Wilkins won’t be efficient, but it seems difficult to imagine him walking into the open market just yet. He’s a 4 year, $81M player in our system right now.


Running Back, BAL, 30

If we told you that an offensive player has secured 25 touchdowns & 3,300 yards from scrimmage over the past two seasons, but probably doesn’t belong in the Top 25 of available free agents, there would be a lot of crazy talk. So we’re bucking the trend and putting King Henry where he belongs. This isn’t a Dynasty Roster ranking, it’s a 2024 ranking, and with no signs of Father Time creeping in, Henry will impact an offense immediately. The stats make him a $14M running back. The age likely cuts that in half. 2 years, $12M (plus incentives).


Wide Receiver, TEN, 30

Ridley didn’t approach the numbers he posted in his last full season (2020 w/ Atlanta), but his ability to make explosive plays is something plenty of the league is looking for this March. The drop rate is something to monitor here, but at a current projection of $17M per year, and Jacksonville unlikely to extend him, Ridley should be considered an excellent value option on the open market.


Left Tackle, DAL, 34

One of the best offensive tackles of this generation has been battling availability issues for the better part of the last 8 seasons (13 games in 2023), but the results on the field are still well above average. Smith agreed to a 1 year, $6M restructured contract to remain with Dallas last season, & something similar (1 year, $7.5M)could be in the cards this March as well.


Guard, LAR, 28

The Steelers loss quickly became the Rams gain, as Dotson poured out his best season to date by a long shot in 2023. The 4th round pick will hit the open market as arguably the best available guard, projecting toward a 4 year, $66M contract in our system


Defensive End, NYG, 30

Williams hasn’t been able to recreate an elite 2020 campaign that scored him a $63M extension in March of 2021, but he’s still considered one of the best interior defensive linemen in the game. Seattle gave out a 2nd & 5th round pick this past deadline to secure him, so a healthy multi-year offer should be on the table sooner rather than later. He’s a 3 year, $60M player in our system right now.


Outside Linebacker, HOU, 30

Hunter’s deal won’t officially void until well after the franchise tag window, so barring an extension, an edge defender with 27 sacks, 150 tackles, and 5 forced fumbles over the past two seasons is about to hit the open market. The 29-year-old projects toward a 3 year, $60M contract in our system.


Safety, NE, 28

One of the first tasks Jerod Mayo should perform as new Head Coach of the Patriots should be to slap a $16M+ franchise tag on Dugger, keeping him off of the open market. The former #37 overall pick has been a tackling machine, a ball hawk, and a reliable asset for New England since 2021, projecting toward a 4 year, $66M contract in our system.


Defensive Tackle, DET, 30

Injuries have always been the only thing holding back Reader from truly being considered one of the elite interior linemen in the game. A torn quad late in 2023 could soften his market this March, but a healthy Reader is a $15M per year player in our system.


Cornerback, MIA, 29

Washington traded Fuller to Kansas City amidst his rookie contract, then signed him back on a 4 year, $40M contract come free agency. He deserves a raise, but keeping him around (3 years, $42M in our system) this time probably makes good sense for the Commanders.


Safety, LAR, 25

Curl has risen from the #216 overall pick back in 2020 to the best available safety not named Winfield in 2024. He’s a tackling machine, and has proven to be available & reliable for a Washington defense that hasn’t always been in the best of situations (to put it nicely). He’s a 4 year, $57M player in our system, and a potential $16M+ franchise tag candidate this month as well.


Outside Linebacker, PHI, 26

The 2020 UDFA has come a heck of a long way, capping off his rookie control tenure with a 10 sack, 29 tackle campaign in New York. He’s a get home type player who might actually be a bit of a liability in the run game, which tempers his mathematical value in our system a bit. But make no mistake here, Huff is about to see a generational payday in 2024, projecting to a 4 year, $37M contract in our system right now.


Running Back, PHI, 27

This was supposed to be the year that Barkley broke through the barrier and proved 100% worthy of the multi-year extension. While the numbers (still) don’t pop off of the page, this is a productive, versatile, offensive weapon with big play capability who has been relatively healthy now for the better part of 3 seasons. Will someone value him as a poor man’s Jonathan Taylor? Or is he destined to be free agency’s next Miles Sanders? The math says Barkley is headed toward a 3 year, $30M contract this March, and it could be fantastic value for someone.


Running Back, GB, 26

The Raiders went through an overhaul during 2023, so it’s unfair to look at his sharp decline from 2022 without that frame of mind. Jacobs is only 26 years old, so teams (including the Raiders) should be a bit more comfortable taking a chance on the 2022 superstar rounding back into form. He’s a 4 year, $42M player in our system right now.


Guard, CAR, 28

The converted tackle made his mark at Right Guard in Miami’s versatile offense, putting the former #39 overall pick in line for his first big pay day this March. A lack of supply could see his bottom line soar, but for now he’s a 4 year, $48M player in our system.


Defensive End, NO, 25

Young was a surprise move at this past deadline, joining a loaded Niners defense with a chance to reestablish his good name before his first trip to the open market. He’s likely headed for a “showcase” contract we’ve seen so many talented edge rushers take in past offseasons. A 1 year, $12M-$13M contract could be in the cards here.


Safety, GB, 25

In a pretty strong safety class, McKinney may end up being undervalued when it’s all said and done. The former #36 overall pick has been outstanding when available, reeling in 9 INTs in 49 games played for the Giants. The 24-year-old projects to a 5 year, $52M contract in our system.


Inside Linebacker, BAL, 25

Roquan Smith’s arrival was supposed to deflate Queen’s role and value both in Baltimore and potentially on the open market. Insert a career season for Queen in 2023, and a projected price tag ($18.5M per year) that almost certainly forces the Ravens to move on this offseason.


Guard, NE, 27

The former 6th-rounder has played all over the Patriots line in 4 seasons, but likely tags himself as a right tackle on the open market this March. Poised to select a new young QB this April, retaining capable offensive linemen should be a priority for this next New England regime. Projected Contract: 4 years, $54M


Defensive End, MIN, 27

A huge part of the Texans’ defensive turnaround (52 tackles, 12.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble), Greenard is set up nicely for a major payday this March. The former 3rd round pick should secure a multi-year guarantee on the open market, projecting toward a 4 year, $54M contract in our system.


Linebacker, WAS, 28

Luvu has now compiled back to back monster seasons in Carolina, far outplaying the 2 year, $9M contract he’s been playing on. The former UDFA projects toward a 4 year, $45M contract this time around.


Linebacker, MIN, 29

Van Ginkel is a do-it-all edge defender that might actually excel most as a coverage linebacker. The long-time role player was thrust into a starting spot for Miami in 2023 and made the most of it in a contract season. Will he follow Vic Fangio to Philly this spring? Projected Contract: 2 years, $14M


Cornerback, IND, 29

The former UDFA has been seeking an upgraded contract in Indy for the better part of two seasons now, and certainly did his part to help the case in 2023 (93 tackles, 3 interceptions, 1.5 sacks). Unfortunately, the slot cornerback market has leveled off mightily since he last penned his $8.3M per year contract. Projected Contract: 3 years, $24M


Safety, BAL, 25

Will his 7 interception season be a one-year wonder, or is Stone’s 2023 campaign something teams should buy high into? A two-year guarantee in the $12M range seems to work here. Projected Contract: 3 years, $21M


Quarterback, TB, 29

Baker finished 2023 with a $6.85M payout, pretty outstanding for a TB team that went to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Somebody will be paying up for the former #1 overall selection this March. Projected Contract 3 years, $100M


Tight End, HOU, 28

One of the top tight ends in football a few years ago in Dallas found a lot of that magic again with the Texans this past season. A weak Tight End market this March could really pump up Schultz’s bottom line. Projected Contract: 3 years, $34M


Running Back, CHI, 25

Swift doubled his best rushing output (1,049 yards rushing), but saw significantly less action as a pass-catcher in his 1 year run with the Eagles. It seems unlikely that Philly will retain him at market value, which currently chimes in at $7M per year (4 years, $28M).


Defensive End, CAR, 31

The Ravens brought in Clowney in the middle of August on an incentive-laden 1 year deal that eventually paid him out $4.5M. 9.5 sacks, 43 tackles, & 2 forced fumbles later, the 30-year-old should hit the open market seeking a deal at or around $7M per year now.


Outside Linebacker, NE, 26

Uche wasn’t nearly the player he was in a breakout 2022 campaign (11.5 sacks, 27 tackles, 2 forced fumbles), but the former 2nd rounder out of Michigan likely gets the benefit of the doubt to a certain extent on the open market. Projected Contract: 2 years, $16M


Running Back, TEN, 27

While the explosiveness didn’t fully return following a gruesome 2022 injury, Pollard actually finished 2023 with solid numbers (1,300 yards from scrimmage, 6 TDs). He likely hits the open market with a 2 year, $13M projection in our system.


Tackle, ARI, 27

Williams was pushed from the left side to the right side upon the signing of Orlando Brown Jr. away from Kansas City. He fared well in the new role and offers a pedigree (and potential ceiling) that doesn’t usually hit the open market. Jawaan Taylor, the most recent example of this scenario, scored $60M guaranteed in free agency. We’ll start Williams off at a projected 4 years, $44M for now.


Wide Receiver, JAX, 25

The story of Gabe Davis in Buffalo will always be a bit of a mystery. At times, the Bills’ offense desperately missed him. Other times, he was simply forgotten about (or ignored) for entire games. There’s still a world where this is a very productive WR2 in a great offense, and a change of scenery could help make that happen. Projected contract: 4 years, $54M


Inside Linebacker, PHI, 26

White needed a more balanced year in terms of productivity to really put his name in the spotlight come March, but failed to do so (despite a career high 2 INTs). The former #5 overall pick will look to leverage his starting point into a big pay day this offseason, but mathematically speaking, he’s a $10M player in our system.


Tackle, JAX, 26

Cleveland has experience both at tackle and guard, but has performed best moving inside both in Minnesota and last year in Jacksonville. The former #58 overall pick projects toward a 4 year, $53M contract in our system.


Tight End, NE, 30

The Patriots didn’t score a lot of points in 2023, so Henry walking away with 6 TDs seems like a pretty tall achievement. The not-yet 30-year-old can still separate in the red zone, and who doesn’t need that this March? Projected Contract: 1 year, $7.5M


Center, LV, 27

Interior Offensive Linemen are becoming extremely valuable assets in free agency, so a player like James (not yet 27 years old, 92% of the Raiders’ snaps in 2023) potentially becoming available would be attractive to many franchises. Projected Contract: 3 years, $27M