Is a Kyler Murray 2024 Trade Plausible?
The Arizona Cardinals walked away from the 2023 NFL draft a winner in many books, in large part due to a savvy move back to #6 to pick up an additional 2024 first round pick. With trade rumors still surrounding WR Deandre Hopkins & S Budda Baker, Arizona may not be done acquiring future draft picks, which has led some (many?) to speculate about the long-term future of QB Kyler Murray. We’ll lean into that a little bit here.
Kyler Murray’s Remaining Contract
Murray will be entering Year 2 of this extension in 2023, with 6 years, $235.6M still to go through the 2028 season. He’ll earn $38M for the upcoming campaign, including $2M base salary, & $36M option bonus.
A 2024 Kyler Murray Trade
There are a lot of moving parts on this deal, but on its surface, this is what it would look like to send Kyler Murray out via trade after the 2023 season.
Pre June 1, 2024
DEAD CAP
Cardinals take on $46.221M of dead cap, all in 2024
NEW TEAM ACQUIRES
| YEAR | CAP HIT |
|---|---|
| 2024 | $38,850,000 |
| 2025 | $32,607,500 |
| 2026 | $42,542,500 |
| 2027 | $36,335,000 |
| 2028 | $46,350,000 |
- $35M of 2024 compensation will already be fully guaranteed
- $30M of 2025 compensation will become fully guaranteed in March of 2024
- $40M of 2026 compensation becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2025
- $19.5M of 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2026.
If we only focus on these early guarantees, a new team would be acquiring Kyler Murray on a 3 year, $114M contract + $19.5M of guaranteed salary in 2027 for practical purposes. Or in other words, if the new team wants to move off of Murray after 2026, they'll owe him a $19.5M cash payment to do so (not unlike what the Colts just did with Matt Ryan).
The only difference with a Post 6/1 trade is that the Cardinals would see their $46.221M of dead cap split into $13M for 2024, & $33.2M for 2025. This wouldn’t be a likely scenario.
Is this Plausible?
Sure. We’ve seen teams take on $40M+ dead cap hits in 2 straight seasons now - so why not make it 3. Arizona will actually be saving $5.6M of cap space with an early trade, as Murray’s cap hit for 2024 currently stands at $51.8M.
The obvious question here is will there actually be a taker? Off the top, these teams could at least be considering a change at the QB positions next March:
- Atlanta: It’s a big year for Ridder to show he can hang at this level.
- Chicago: It’s a big year for Fields to show he can take an improved team up a rung.
- Detroit: If Jared Goff isn’t extended, all options are on the table
- Los Angeles Rams: Stafford is fully guaranteed through 2025 and could be in this trade
- Las Vegas: Garoppolo’s deal is easily a 1-and-done if needed
- Miami: Only if Tua’s injury history continues
- Minnesota: Cousins is on an expiring and the next QB is not yet rostered.
- Pittsburgh: It’s a big year for Pickett to show he can hang at this level.
- San Francisco: Plenty of options but none long-term.
- Seattle: Geno Smith’s deal is easily 1-and-done if needed
- Tampa Bay: It’s more likely they subtract than add, but it’s an option
- Washington: Maybe the leader in the clubhouse.
Is this Likely?
No. A move of this size at a position of this importance should never be considered likely, but if the wheels fall off in 2023 and Arizona truly is in position to select one of the Top 2 QBs out of the 2024 draft, all bets are back on the table.
If it happens, Arizona will have paid Murray $69M across 2022 & 2023. That could have been $35M had he been forced to play out his rookie contract in its entirety (4th year + 5th year option). Will the Cardinals be able to maneuver a trade for a $133M player that has had so many public deterrents? Can they sell the idea that they would have been happy to have Kyler as their QB1 for the long run, but passing up a chance to draft and play one of these 2024 prospects was too unique of an opportunity to miss out on? Or will this be Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns version 2.0?
