Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray

Remaining Contract: 3 years, $125M
Practical Remaining: 2 years, $79M

$39M of Murray’s 2026 salary is already guaranteed. If he’s on a roster March 15th, $19.5M of his 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed. These numbers represent the final early vesting guarantees within the contract. There’s a very real world where Murray remains in this contract through 2026 (either with Arizona or elsewhere), but is released thereafter, with the $19.5M salary owed to him on the way out the door. It’s a messy ending, but one that’s becoming more and more possible as these QB contracts continue to balloon.

Jacoby Brissett, who started 12 games in 2025, is under contract at $5.4M in 2026. $1.5M of that becomes fully guaranteed on March 15th.

Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr.

Remaining Contract: 2 years, $6.8M + 2028 Option
Practical Remaining: 2 years, $6.8M (guaranteed)

Poor play and injury sets back both the production, and the mindset surrounding Penix Jr. as the Kevin Stefanski regime begins in Atlanta. It seems highly likely that he’ll be given the keys to the QB1 job again in 2026, but it also stands to reason that a short leash, and a significant organizational change, could be in the works sooner rather than later.

Kirk Cousins is widely expected to be designated a Post 6/1 release this coming March, but could be brought back on a new deal with mutual interest (Atlanta could offset the $10M bonus owed to Cousins with a new contract).

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen

Remaining Contract: 5 years. $272M
Practical Remaining: 4 years, $214.5M

Allen has significant, full, early vesting guarantees through the 2029 season, his age 33 season. It’s realistic to assume he and the Bills would begin extension conversations in 2028, assuming all is well and dandy for both parties. Allen has cash payouts of $55M, $53M, & $54M respectively over the next three seasons. For many reasons, this is the most stable QB/contract situation available to Head Coach candidates.

Bills’ QB2 Mitchell Trubisky is a pending UFA this March.

Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson

Remaining Contract: 2 years, $104M
Practical Remaining: 1 year, $52M

Jackson is entering the final guaranteed year of his 5 year contract, $29M of his $52M salary for the upcoming season locked in. Add in $74.5M cap hits each of the next two seasons, and there’s strong reason to believe that the Ravens will be looking to extend their 2-time MVP QB1 in the coming weeks. Jackson carries a 4 year, $250M valuation in our system.

Cooper Rush is the only other QB currently rostered by Baltimore, holding a non-guaranteed $2.1M salary for 2026.

Cleveland Browns: Shedeur Sanders

Remaining Contract: 3 years, $3.3M
Practical Remaining: No Guarantee

Sanders started 7 games for Cleveland, offering largely mixed results, but still figures to be the placeholder QB1 as the calendar flips to 2026. His rookie deal contains no guaranteed salary, making it a year to year (if not week to week) situation. The same can be said for Dillon Gabriel, who holds a non-guaranteed 3 year, $4.2M contract through 2028.

Deshaun Watson, who may very well regain the starting role in 2026, is entering a contract year, set to earn a fully guaranteed $46M for the upcoming season. $131M of total dead cap attached to the deal means it’s extremely likely he remains with the Browns in some capacity.

Las Vegas Raiders: #1 Overall Pick

Projected Contract: 4 years, $55M + Option

Geno Smith struggled mightily through a mess of a 2025 season in Las Vegas, putting the 2 years, $66M remaining on his contract on notice. Fortunately (for him), $18.5M of that is fully guaranteed next season. That figure also represents the total dead cap attached to the deal (the Raiders did not build in a signing bonus to the contract).

Aidan O'Connell enters a contract year in 2026, projected to earn around $3.7M (thanks to a proven performance bonus). It stands to reason that he’ll remain in the mix even with the expected draft selection.

Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa

Remaining Contract: 3 years, $141.4M
Practical Remaining: 1 year, $57M

Tua enters 2026 with a $56.4M cap hit, and $54M of his salary is fully guaranteed. If he’s on the roster March 13th, $3M of his 2027 salary locks in as well, making this a minimum $57M commitment. Dead cap limits Miami’s options for Tua this offseason, but we’ve detailed as many as possible here.

7th-round pick Quinn Ewers started Miami’s final 3 games, and should be in the mix to compete for the gig again in 2026. His contract carries a non-guaranteed $3.3M across the next 3 seasons.

New York Giants: Jaxson Dart

Remaining Contract: 3 years, $7.1M + Option
Practical Contract: 3 years, $7.1M

Dart showed promise in 2025, but comes with a style of play that will lead to more injuries than sunny days in this league. New HC John Harbaugh has plenty of experience keeping an athletic QB as healthy as possible, so there’s plenty to like about this organization, and some of this roster, heading into 2026.

Jameis Winston remains under contract at $4M through 2026, $1.3M of which is already fully guaranteed. 

Pittsburgh Steelers: TBD

Mason Rudolph holds a non-guaranteed $3M in 2026, while 6th-round pick Will Howard carries a non-guaranteed 3 years, $3.3M through 2028. The Steelers will be reloading at this position, potentially via various channels, in the coming weeks.

Tennessee Titans: Cameron Ward

Remaining Contract: 3 years, $15.8M + Option
Practical Contract: 3 years, $15.8M

Relatively speaking, Ward’s debut campaign was a success, making this a fairly attractive landing spot for a coaching candidate looking to hit the ground running. The organization will need to aggressively back fill the roster accordingly, but Ward showed enough promise to warrant at least the beginning stages of a build out this March.

Will Levis missed all of 2025 with a shoulder injury, and now enters a contract year in 2026. $1.24M of his $2M salary is fully guaranteed.