Daniel Jones’ torn Achilles tendon wasn’t just bad timing for an Indianapolis Colts team looking to make a final push into the 2025 postseason, but it sets off a chain reaction of questions surrounding both his football, and certainly financial future.

One of the bigger questions surrounding this scenario is a two-parter: How much do the Colts need Daniel Jones, and how many other teams are also heavily interested in his services? We’ll dive into a few possible outcomes.

Before the Injury

The most likely scenario set to play out before the injury was a February franchise tag offer, with negotiations for a multi-year contract extension soon to follow. Jones carried a $45M valuation from our system heading into Week 14, projecting to a 4 year, $180M contract. According to our data, the non-exclusive franchise tag for a QB next season stands to be priced at or around the $46M mark.

Post-Injury Expectations

Jones’ injury, surgery and recovery timeline put the Colts - and other interested teams - in a very difficult situation. It’s highly likely that Jones won’t be back on a football field for a minimum of 9 months, with a full year of recovery extremely common with injuries of this degree.

A $46M franchise tag for a player unlikely to be ready for Week 1 seems aggressive, most notably because it will all but eliminate Indy’s initial 2026 salary cap space. Based on pure speculation, it’s highly likely that Jones is allowed to test the open market this March. This allows the Colts the opportunity to do their due diligence on all trade and free agent options, while also keeping an open line of communication with Jones and his camp.

There’s a clear fit between Jones and the Colts offense, and the 2025 version of the Minnesota Vikings sans Sam Darnold is stark evidence to show that not every system is “plug-and-play”, but Jones will now be rehabbing his 2nd major injury (2023 ACL).

We’ve seen quite a few examples of a “rehab bridge” contract in MLB, usually attached to a starting pitcher who has missed a calendar year due to Tommy John surgery. Teams have been willing to offer such players a 2 year contract, with a low salary in Year 1 (which includes rehabilitation time), incentives to boost that number should the player return and produce, and a much more player-friendly salary in the 2nd year of the deal. But a starting quarterback holds much more power & leverage in situations like this. Jones may not be willing to build in a second year to any contract in 2026, assuming that all of the offers he receives are suppressed due to the injury.

Instead, he might be more inclined to run back the 1-year, incentive-laden contract he just spent 2025 playing out (from which he’ll end up earning around $16M). Not only does this provide Indy with financial value to build out the roster more this coming offseason, but it gives Jones a chance to properly rehab, work his way back into legitimate QB1 form with a system he’s comfortable in, and bet on the opportunity to approach free agency in March of 2027. It might even be possible for Jones to negotiate a “no-tag” clause in this 1-year deal, gaining a bit more control of his future going forward.

Free Agency & Availability

Barring a franchise tag or extension (below) Jones was set to become one of the top players to hit the open market this coming March. In terms of upcoming free agents with legitimate starting QB experience, the list is minimal. When factoring in success at the position, the list shrinks even more.

Notable Pending Free Agent QBs
Aaron Rodgers (PIT, 42)
Joe Flacco (CIN, 40)
Russell Wilson (NYG, 37)
Tyrod Taylor (NYJ, 36)
Jimmy Garoppolo (LAR, 34)
Carson Wentz (MIN, 33)
Marcus Mariota (WSH, 32)
Mitchell Trubisky (BUF, 31)
Gardner Minshew (KC, 29)
Kenny Pickett (LV, 27)
Zach Wilson (MIA, 26)

Potential Trade/Release Candidates
Kyler Murray (ARI, 28)
Kirk Cousins (ATL, 37)
Andy Dalton (CAR, 38)
Dillon Gabriel (CLE, 24)
Geno Smith (LV, 35)
Justin Fields (NYJ, 26)
Drew Lock (SEA, 29)
Mac Jones (SF, 27)

Projected QB-Needy Teams
Arizona
Atlanta
Cleveland
Indianapolis
LA Rams
Las Vegas
Miami
Minnesota
New Orleans
NY Jets
Pittsburgh


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