As we approach the midway point of the 2025 NFL season, a few QB outlooks are beginning to materialize. The following is a list of players with future contract guarantees who are trending toward the possibility of a contract buyout in 2026.

RELATED: NFL QB CONTRACTS

Kyler Murray (Cardinals)

Arizona is beginning to send signals that Murray's stranglehold on their QB1 position could be weakening. Does the contract follow suit? Murray is on the books for another 3 years, $125.1M through 2028, with the following guarantee structure:

2026: $39.835M fully guaranteed
2027: $19.5M becomes fully guaranteed March 15th, another $14.185M the 5th league day of 2027

A 2026 Release
If the Cardinals look to outright release Murray next March, they'll be dealing with $57.7M of dead cap ($39M of which stems from that salary guarantee). By designating him a Post June 1st Release, the dead cap would split slightly ($50.5M in 2026, $7.2M in 2027).

A 2026 Trade
If a trade partner were to surface, the financial burden would decrease significantly for Arizona, as the dead cap would drop to $17.9M. However, this would require a team taking on the following contract:
2026: $42.535M ($39.8M guaranteed)
2027: $36.335M ($19.5M guaranteed)
2028: $46.35M (non-guaranteed)

Deshaun Watson (Browns)

Will 2026 be the end of this long miserable journey for both Watson and the Browns? The contract holds a fully guaranteed $46M for next season. It also holds $131.1M of total dead cap due in large part to 3 significant cap conversions in recent years. Will these numbers be lowered by insurance cap reductions for time missed this season? Yes, but just how much remains to be seen. As it currently stands, a Post 6/1 release next March means dead cap hits of:

2025: $80.7M ($46M cash)
2026: $50.4M

Anthony Richardson (Colts)

Richardson’s time as the Colts starter appears long over, due both to his performance, and the emergence of Daniel Jones in his place. His rookie contract contains a fully guaranteed $5.3M in 2026, the final year of the deal (assuming the 5th-year option is declined). The 23-year-old could be discussed in trade discussions both at this upcoming deadline, and the following offseason. But if nothing materializes, look for Indy to take on the $10.8M dead cap hit (including the $5.3M cash) to move on next March.

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

The Dolphins handed Tua a 3+ year guarantee on his 4 year, $212.4M extension signed back in July of 2024. This means $51M cash through 2025, another $54M guaranteed in 2026, and $3M of 2027 compensation if he’s on the roster next March. There’s a world where Miami considers a Post 6/1 release before that $3M guarantee locks in. Here’s a look at how that might break down:

If the '26 Option Bonus is Declined
2026: $67.4M ($11M cap lost)
2027: $31.8M ($21M cap saved)

If the '26 Option Bonus is Exercised
2026: $55.4M ($1M cap saved)
2027: $43.8M ($9.6M cap saved)

Kirk Cousins (Falcons)

The Falcons have already paid Cousins $11M for 15 snaps of work this season, and are on the hook for all $27.5M of his salary this season, plus a $10M roster bonus due next March. A move at the trade deadline could shift things a bit, but for now, Atlanta is scheduled to take on $35M of dead cap to move on from Cousins next year (including the $10M cash payment).

Justin Fields (Jets)

The 26-year-old may be at the end of the starting QB line after his latest let down in NY. Fields is owed $20M this season (a $15M signing bonus, $5M base salary), and $10M of his 2026 salary is already fully guaranteed. An outright release next March leaves behind $22M of dead cap to the Jets (including that guaranteed cash). 

Geno Smith (Raiders)

The Raiders guaranteed $58.5M of Smith’s $106M total value contract this April, including $18.5M of his 2026 salary. They also structured this contract without a signing bonus, taking on full base salaries to mitigate future dead cap. In doing so, that $18.5M salary guarantee represents the only dead cap to release Smith next March (before an additional $8M of salary locks in). 

Will Levis (Titans)

Levis will miss all of 2025 due to a separated shoulder that required surgery this offseason. He’ll be entering a contract year in 2026, with $1.24M of his $2M salary already guaranteed. With Cameron Ward securely in the QB1 role ahead of him, Tennessee might be motivated to fill the backup role with a more seasoned veteran. The Titans would be on the hook for a $2.22M dead cap hit if they opt to move on next March.