MVP Extension

It’s not often that we get an actual MVP candidate to fall into this category, but Mariners C Cal Raleigh hits the ASG break with 38 HRs, 82 RBIs, and a 1.010 OPS. He’s the runner-up odds favorite to win AL MVP (Aaron Judge), but easily the biggest first half storyline.

Raleigh signed a 6 year, $105M extension this past March that bought out all three years of arbitration (at $34M combined) then 3 years of free agency (at $69M combined). He’s the 28th best value in all of baseball right now according to our True Value Stat.

Philly Special

The Phillies head into the break with 3 of the Top 4 NL Cy Young candidates. Front-runner Zack Wheeler began a 3 year, $126M extension this season (making him the highest average paid SP in the history of the game). 28-year-old Cristopher Sanchez started his 4 year, $22.5M extension in 2025 that bought out a pre-arbitration season, all of his arbitration years, and two possible free agent seasons if club options are exercised. Ranger Suarez (4th best Cy Young odds) was the odd man out contractually, as he is currently set to hit the open market this winter.

The Sox Swap

After one big year in Chicago, Garrett Crochet was acquired by the Boston Red Sox last December and subsequently extended out 6 years, $170M through 2031. The deal bought out Crochet’s final run through arbitration and won’t actually kick in until the 2026 campaign. The 26-year-old is playing out 2025 on a $3.8M arbitration salary, while giving Tarik Skubal a run for his money in the Cy Young race.

Back & Better Than Ever

When Matt Boyd hit the shelf for Tommy John surgery back with the Tigers back in 2023, many thought that would be the end of his time as a reliable starting pitcher at the MLB level. The Guardians helped rehabilitate him back to health on a veteran minimum contract halfway through last season, and he showed signs of rounding back into form down the stretch. So when the Cubs handed the 34-year-old a 2 year, $29M guarantee (plus incentives), there was a high level of risk/reward to be had with it. Boyd has rewarded them hand over hand to start the 2025 season, holding down a 2.34 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, including 102 strikeouts in 112 innings of work. He hits the ASG break as one of the best value veteran pitchers in the game.

Run it Back

After a tumultuous first run through free agency, Pete Alonso found himself back where he started, signing a 2 year, $54M contract with the New York Mets that included $30M in 2025, and a chance to opt out of the remaining $24M prior to 2026. He’s a lock to do just that, sending him back into the open market once again this coming winter for what he hopes will be a much smoother path toward a worthy multi-year guarantee. The 30-year-old is doing his part on the field, posting Top 5 MVP numbers at the break, including 26 HRs, 77 RBI, and a .907 OPS. He currently carries a $30M per year market value in our system.

The Value Plays

Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong exploded onto the scene in 2025 and is currently the runner-up favorite for NL MVP behind Shohei Ohtani. PCA hits the break with 21 doubles, 25 homers, 71 RBIs, and a 5.4 WAR, combining with Kyle Tucker as one of the best 1-2 lineup punches in all of baseball thus far. The 23-year-old still holds 5 years of team control ahead of him, so the Cubs have plenty more value to squeeze out

Astros SP Hunter Brown has improved dramatically in each of the past 2 seasons, culminating with an All-Star selection this week. The 26-year-old holds 3 arbitration seasons going forward, and should be considered a strong extension candidate this offseason, with Logan Webb’s 5 year, $90M deal in San Francisco a likely target.

Mariners RP Andres Munoz hits the break with 21 saves, a 245 ERA+, and a second consecutive All Star selection. The 26-year-old is in the final season of a 4 year, $7.5M pre-arbitration extension, but Seattle holds 3 future club options on the deal through 2028, furthering the potential value.

Young & Cheap

The current list of AL/NL Rookie of the Year candidates combines plenty of notable names, but not a single contract extension. These 20 players are all currently playing out a first-year minimum $760,000 salary (some at a prorated level based on their purchase date), providing maximum value to their respective organizations. More than a few of these players (Anthony, Mayer, Caglianone) will be offseason extension candidates in the coming months.

(h/t FoxSports)

The “Winter Of” Candidates

While we don’t have a Judge, or Ohtanio, or Soto to hang our collective hats on this coming winter, a strong core of players to start watching closely is quickly forming.

OF Kyle Tucker, Cubs
Tucker remains the leader in the clubhouse despite a bit of a dip in power production halfway through 2025. He continues to fill-up the stat sheet and is a major contributor to the Cubs’ early success. Current Valuation: 12 years, $515M

1B Pete Alonso, Mets
Alonso is largely expected to opt-out of his contract in NY and rejoin the open market this winter, and the asking price really shouldn’t be changing all too much. Pete went into last winter looking for long-term guarantee at around $30M per year, locked in a 1 year, $30M deal with the Mets this season, and should be seeking a 5-6 year deal at that same annual dollar figure. Current Valuation: 6 years, $180M

SP Framber Valdez, Astros
Gave us all a bit of a scare last season when he missed time with an elbow twinge, but has rounded right back into top form for 2025. The 31-year-old settled at an $18M pricepoint for his fourth and final go-around in arbitration, setting himself up for a free agent deal that values near the $30M per year mark foundationally speaking. Current Value: 6 years, $168M

SP Ranger Suarez, Phillies
He’s dealt with back issues in back-to-back seasons which may give teams cause for concern when thinking long-term, but it shouldn’t completely halt his ability to lock in a strong contract this winter. The 29-year-old has age, talent, & postseason experience on his side. Current Valuation: 6 years, $170M