Offseason Approach

Is it time to trade Giannis Antetokounmpo?

Actual Cap Space

-$84.1 million

Practical Cap Space

-$69.9 million

Projected Luxury Tax Space

$25.6 million

Under Contract (9)

Giannis Antetokounmpo
Jamaree Bouyea (two-way)
A.J. Green (non-guaranteed)
Andre Jackson Jr. (non-guaranteed)
Kyle Kuzma
Damian Lillard
Chris Livingston (non-guaranteed)
Pete Nance (two-way)
Tyler Smith

View Roster

Potential Free Agents (9)

Pat Connaughton (unrestricted – player option)
Brook Lopez (unrestricted)
Kevin Porter Jr. (unrestricted – player option)
Bobby Portis (unrestricted – player option)
Taurean Prince (unrestricted)
Ryan Rollins (restricted)
Jericho Sims (unrestricted)
Gary Trent Jr. (unrestricted)
Stanley Umude (restricted – two-way)

View Free Agents

Dead Cap (0)

None

Projected Signing Exceptions

Non-Taxpayer MLE ($14.1 million)
Bi-Annual Exception ($5.1 million)

Notable Trade Exceptions

Khris Middleton ($7.2 million)

First Round Draft Picks

None

Notable Extension Candidates

Pat Connaughton (veteran extension)
A.J. Green (veteran extension)
Andre Jackson Jr. (veteran extension)
Kyle Kuzma (veteran extension)
Damian Lillard (veteran extension)
Chris Livingston (veteran extension)
Bobby Portis (veteran extension)

Analysis

Have we hit the point where Giannis Antetokounmpo tells the Milwaukee Bucks that he prefers a trade to another team? It feels like we are closer than ever.

We’ve been near this point twice before. Both times, Milwaukee was able to swing trades for veteran guards to stabilize things and Antetokounmpo remained in the fold.

That doesn’t feel very likely to happen for a third time. The Bucks are about out of tradable players and draft capital to land a star. If Antetokounmpo sticks around this time, it’s because he believes staying with Milwaukee, and in the Eastern Conference, still presents his best chance to win.

It’s that chance to win a title that is Antetokounmpo’s sole motivation here. There’s no credible reporting that the superstar has any form of personal issues with the Bucks. Antetokounmpo has professed his love for Milwaukee, which is the only city he’s made home in not just the NBA, but in the United States. But if the Bucks can’t give him a chance to contend, Antetokounmpo may be ready to move on.

In many ways, the Bucks front office, led by a recently extended Jon Horst, has to prepare for two offseasons. The first one is one where Antetokounmpo sticks around and Milwaukee has to retool the roster as best they can, with some key rotation players hitting free agency and Damian Lillard likely to miss most, if not all, of the upcoming season.

The second path is rebuilding in a post-Antetokounmpo world. Milwaukee will undoubtedly do well in a trade package for their franchise player, but they won’t be contenders on the other side. They probably won’t even be a playoff team. If that’s the path, then decisions on their own free agents will have a completely different tone and tenor as well.

To keep things simple, if Antetokounmpo asks for a trade, it makes little sense for Milwaukee to retain any of a group that includes Brook Lopez, Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince or Kevin Porter Jr. If the decision from Antetokounmpo comes early enough, it may even impact the player option decision for Bobby Portis. Pat Connaughton is a good bet to pick up his option either way, as he’s not likely to get offers anywhere close to the $9.4 million he’d make next season.

If Antetokounmpo is staying in Milwaukee, that changes things for the Bucks and their players when it comes to free agency. The team would be trying to get back into contention. That means re-signing any of the above group could be on the table.

Because a rebuild would be really hard to project beyond the Bucks playing a lot of younger players, while resetting their cap sheet, we’ll stick with the approach of retaining Antetokounmpo for the majority of our analysis here.

Lopez has been a pretty perfect fit alongside Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee’s frontcourt, while Portis has been very good as a third big in the rotation. Lopez has given no indication that he’s thinking about retirement, which makes sense as he’s still producing on a nightly basis. But a contract near the $23 million he made last season is probably too rich. Something in the range of $15 to $18 million per season over two years makes a lot of sense for Lopez. That keeps him fairly paid, while bringing his number down for Milwaukee. Creating additional salary flexibility is huge for the Bucks.

As for Portis, he could simply pick up his option and return at $13.4 million. That’s below the MLE, but it’s unlikely Portis would get anything more than MLE offers as a free agent. And, given teams recent stinginess with the MLE, Portis might not even get full MLE offers. That could lead him towards picking up his option, then hitting free agency in 2026, or working out a long-term extension with Milwaukee.

Trent, Prince and Porter were all on minimum deals last season. All three outplayed those deals, but with cap space and exceptions at a premium this summer, all three vets could be looking at minimum deals again. If that’s the case, the trio will have to weigh staying in Milwaukee vs jumping to a team that is more certain of contention. Roles and playing time will also be a factor.

The Bucks should be interested in retaining all three players. Trent isn’t the defender he once was, but he’s still a pretty good 3&D-plus guy. Prince has become a consistent shooter and he’s a nice player to have starting or coming off the bench. Porter is a wildcard, but with Lillard likely to miss next season, Milwaukee could use his on-ball juice as a scorer and playmaker.

Milwaukee’s other roster decisions are a lot more straight forward. All three of A.J. Green, Andre Jackson Jr. and Chris Livingston should be retained. Their deals are all around the veteran minimum amount, and that’s good for the Bucks.

Ryan Rollins should be re-signed to a team-friendly deal, likely at or just above the veteran minimum. He’s gotten his career on track in his two seasons in Milwaukee. Jerico Sims could be back, but he’s a minimum player and won’t impact offseason plans in a major way.

The Bucks don’t have a draft pick as it stands today. If they were to trade Antetokounmpo, that would likely change. That, combined with standard intel gathering practices, are why Horst and the front office are meeting with and working out lottery prospects. It’s best to prepared for what may come, not matter how likely it is to actually come.

That takes us to extensions. If free agency is hard to predict for Milwaukee, extensions are even trickier to nail down. We can safely take Connaughton and Kyle Kuzma off the list as extension candidates. Lillard won’t be extended at this point either, especially when his current extension is only just now kicking in.

Portis is in a weird spot. There’s a world where picking up his option and adding a couple of years makes sense. He could accomplish the same basic thing by opting out and re-signing too. Green and Jackson are interesting extension candidates, but that’s probably at least somewhat dependent on what happens with Antetokounmpo. If he’s sticking around, extending either of the wings makes more sense than if the Bucks star is moving on.

With that, we’ve come full circle. With all due respect to everyone else on the Milwaukee Bucks, the only player that matters in the immediate is Giannis Antetokounmpo. Everything the franchise has been for a decade has orbited around Antetokounmpo. If that changes, so does everything else. The Bucks would be rebuilding and that completely changes the roster-building approach. If Antetokounmpo stays, look for Jon Horst to package together salaries to make trades to upgrade a Damian Lillard-less roster for next season. But it’s all up in the air until Milwaukee knows what’s happening with their franchise player. Until then, the Bucks are preparing for two drastically different paths this offseason.