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FORMULA 1
- PVF
- OLYMPICS
Potential MLB Trade Sellers & Candidates
As the August 1st trade deadline in MLB approaches our look at teams destined to be active sellers, & a few dozen players who may be headed elsewhere in the coming days.
Trade Chance: Spotrac's Dan Soemann has evaluated each trade possibility, offering a percentage probability that the player will be moved before the deadline.
The New York Mets
Despite a league high $350M payroll ($380M+ in terms of the luxury tax), the Mets find themselves in 4th place in the NL East, 7.5 games out of a Wild Card spot as August nears.
Max Scherzer (SP, 39)
Trade Chance: 20%
Remaining in 2023: $16M ($14M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $43.3M player option for 2024
Justin Verlander (SP, 40)
Trade Chance: 20%
Remaining in 2023: $16M ($14M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $43.3M in 2024, $35M vesting option in 2025
David Robertson (RP, 38)
Trade Chance: 85%
Remaining in 2023: $3.7M ($3.2M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Brooks Raley (RP, 35)
Trade Chance: 50%
Remaining in 2023: $1.6M ($1.45M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $6.5M club option in 2024
Tommy Pham (OF, 35)
Trade Chance: 90%
Remaining in 2023: $2.2M ($1.9M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Mark Canha (OF, 34)
Trade Chance: 25%
Remaining in 2023: $3.9M ($3.3M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $11.5M club option in 2024
The Chicago White Sox
Despite a small run near the All Star break, the White Sox find themselves nearly 20 games under .500 heading toward August - 4th in the AL Central, and 14.5 games out of a Wild Card spot at the time of this publication. The #12 payroll in MLB is likely headed toward a fire sale in the coming months
Lucas Giolito (SP, 28)
Trade Chance: 95%
Remaining in 2023: $3.85M ($3.35M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Lance Lynn (SP, 36)
Trade Chance: 90%
Remaining in 2023: $6.8M ($5.9M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $18M club option in 2024
Joe Kelly (RP, 35)
Trade Chance: 90%
Remaining in 2023: $3.3M ($2.9M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $9.5M club option in 2024
Keynan Middleton (RP, 29)
Trade Chance: 75%
Remaining in 2023: $278k ($242k on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Reynaldo Lopez (RP, 29)
Trade Chance: 60%
Remaining in 2023: $1.3M ($1.1M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Tim Anderson (INF, 30)
Trade Chance: 30%
Remaining in 2023: $4.6M ($4M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $14M club option in 2024
The St. Louis Cardinals
Despite a 6-4 record in their last 10, the Cardinals still feel too far behind to consider themselves a playoff squad in 2023 (11 GB in the NL Central, 10 GB from a Wild Card). At the very least, grabbing a prospect or two for their surplus of outfielders and an expiring pitching contract makes sense - if not more.
Jordan Montgomery (SP, 30)
Trade Chance: 80%
Remaining in 2023: $3.7M ($3.2M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Jack Flaherty (SP, 27)
Trade Chance: 80%
Remaining in 2023: $2M ($1.75M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Paul DeJong (INF, 29)
Trade Chance: 25%
Remaining in 2023: $3.3M ($2.9M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $12.5M club option in 2024
Jordan Hicks (RP, 26)
Trade Chance: 85%
Remaining in 2023: $681k ($592k on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Chris Stratton (RP, 32)
Trade Chance: 70%
Remaining in 2023: $1M ($903k on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Tyler O'Neill (OF, 28)
Trade Chance: 40%
Remaining in 2023: $1.83M ($1.6M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 1 more arbitration year
Dylan Carlson (OF, 24)
Trade Chance: 60%
Remaining in 2023: $275k ($240k on 8/1)
Contract Status: 3 years of arbitration
The Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are in a bit of a pickle. On one hand, there’s young talent ready to develop into legitimate MLB production. On the other hand, there are pricey veterans probably better served elsewhere. Chicago probably needs to take 2 steps backward before they proceed forward - but it could very well be a quick process.
Marcus Stroman (SP, 32)
Trade Chance: 85%
Remaining in 2023: $9.2M ($8M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $21M player option in 2024 (likely opt-out)
Cody Bellinger (OF, 27)
Trade Chance: 85%
Remaining in 2023: $4.4M ($3.8M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $12M mutual option in 2024 (likely opt out)
Michael Fulmer (RP, 30)
Trade Chance: 40%
Remaining in 2023: $1.48M ($1.3M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Kyle Hendricks (SP, 33)
Trade Chance: 55%
Remaining in 2023: $5.2M ($4.5M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $16M club option for 2024
Yan Gomes (C, 35)
Trade Chance: 35%
Remaining in 2023: $2.2M ($1.9M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $6M club option for 2024
The Detroit Tigers
Despite positive steps forward (9 games under .500, 3rd in the AL Central currently), the Tigers likely still view themselves on the outside looking in down the stretch. They also hold 3-4 veteran arms that should be flipped into younger players this week.
Eduardo Rodriguez (SP, 30)
Trade Chance: 85%
Remaining in 2023: $5.2M ($4.5M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 3 yrs, $49M, but he can opt-out after 2023
Michael Lorenzen (SP, 31)
Trade Chance: 20%
Remaining in 2023: $3.15M ($2.75M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Jose Cisnero (RP, 34)
Trade Chance: 30%
Remaining in 2023: $848k ($738k on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
The Washington Nationals
The Nats are going to finish the 2023 season where they were expected to (last place in the NL East), but it’s safe to say that they showed a lot more grit and progress (especially on the mound) than anticipated. There are at least a few legitimate building blocks in place right now, and a sale of the team could invigorate a flashy and fun roster push in the coming months/years.
Jeimer Candelario (3B, 29)
Trade Chance: 65%
Remaining in 2023: $1.85M ($1.6M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Kyle Finnegan (RP, 31)
Trade Chance: 70%
Remaining in 2023: $862k ($750k on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2 more years of arbitration
Hunter Harvey (RP, 28)
Trade Chance: 30%
Remaining in 2023: $322k ($280k on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2 more years of arbitration
Lane Thomas (OF, 27)
Trade Chance: 35%
Remaining in 2023: $816k ($710k on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2 more years of arbitration
A Few More
Shohei Ohtani (SP/DH, 28, Angels)
Trade Chance: 45%
Remaining in 2023: $11.1M ($9.6M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Paul Blackburn (SP, 29, Athletics)
Trade Chance: 40%
Remaining in 2023: $704k ($613k on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2 more arbitration years
Patrick Wisdom (3B, 31, Cubs)
Trade Chance: 25%
Remaining in 2023: $283k ($246k on 8/1)
Contract Status: 3 arbitration years left
Aaron Civale (SP, 28, Guardians)
Trade Chance: 65%
Remaining in 2023: $965k ($840k on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2 more arbitration years
Josh Hader (RP, 29, Padres)
Trade Chance: 80%
Remaining in 2023: $5.2M ($4.5M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Blake Snell (SP, 30, Padres)
Trade Chance: 80%
Remaining in 2023: $6.1M ($5.3M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Juan Soto (OF, 24, Padres)
Trade Chance: 65%
Remaining in 2023: $8.5M ($7.4M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 1 more arbitration year
Rich Hill (SP, 43, Pirates)
Trade Chance: 75%
Remaining in 2023: $2.9M ($2.5M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Jonathan India (INF, 26, Reds)
Trade Chance: 65%
Remaining in 2023: $282k ($245k on 8/1)
Contract Status: 3 arbitration years
C.J. Cron (1B, 33, Rockies)
Trade Chance: 40%
Remaining in 2023: $2.7M ($2.3M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Elias Diaz (C, 32, Rockies)
Trade Chance: 30%
Remaining in 2023: $2M ($1.7M on 8/1)
Contract Status: $6M in 2024
Randal Grichuk (OF, 31, Rockies)
Trade Chance: 20%
Remaining in 2023: $3.8M ($3.3M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 2024 UFA
Brad Hand (RP, 33, Rockies)
Trade Chance: 60%
Remaining in 2023: $556k ($483k on 8.1)
Contract Status: $7M club option in 2024
Scott Barlow (RP, 30, Royals)
Trade Chance: 90%
Remaining in 2023: $1.9M ($1.7M on 8/1)
Contract Status: 1 more arbitration year
CATEGORIES
- NBA 97
- NFL 69
- GOLF 54
- NWSL 44
- MLB 27
- NHL 1
AUTHORS
- Michael Ginnitti NFL, MLB
- Keith Smith NBA
- Scott Allen Contributor
- Taylor Vincent NWSL
Analyzing & Predicting Juan Soto's Free Agent Contract
As MLB officially flips the switch to offseason-mode, the focus immediately turns to Juan Soto, the most exciting free agent since: well Shohei Ohtani 12 months ago. We’ll take a few moments here to dive into a calculated value & predicted outcome for Soto’s free agent journey over the next few weeks.
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MLB Offseason Primer: AL East
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