The Brewers and Astros both entered the season with some question marks. Could the Milwaukee offense support their dominant pitching staff? How would the Astros respond to the loss of Carlos Correa? Both teams have shown those uncertainties were likely over exaggerated as they currently hold small leads in their respective divisions.
Milwaukee is the NL Central favorite at (-270). These odds imply a 73% chance they win the division but FanGraphs projects their odds of winning at 88%. It’s pretty clear this division will be won by the Brewers or Cardinals.
Houston is a (-210) favorite to win the AL West which translates to a 67% implied probability. FanGraphs has their projection much higher at 81%. This division is also a two team race between the Astros and Angels.
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Spotrac’s Season Long Odds
The MLB regular season is a marathon, but betting on it doesn’t have to be. Keeping a close eye on data, trends, and specific lines can allow for great value on a week to week basis. Our Season Long Odds series will focus on a variety of year end bets, including Division, Pennant, & World Series winners, MVP & Rookie of the Year candidates, and plenty more.
Our process will include analyzing real-time odds from FanDuel Sports Book, predictive odds from FanGraphs, & a little logic based on schedules, standings, injuries, etc… We’ll identify teams who are in a strong window to place a season-end bet on based on the difference between current actual and expected odds, with a nod to parlay every now and then for even more value as well.
Interested in this stuff? We’d love to hear from you.