The Yankees and Astros have built up big leads in their respective divisions, while the Padres have shot past the Dodgers.
Another week, another big jump for the Astros division odds. They’re now (-1100) favorites, a 92% implied win percentage which is more in line with FanGraphs projection (97.2%).
The Yankees sweep of Tampa Bay did no one in the division any favors and their lead is up to 10 games. I was admittedly skeptical entering the season but a few subtle offseason moves have paid huge dividends. They’re 31 games over .500 in June and it’s hard to imagine this team falling off a cliff, even in that difficult division.
The Guardians are (13-3) over in June but enter a critical stretch against the Dodgers, Twins, Red Sox and Yankees. Meanwhile, the White Sox have the easiest remaining schedule in the league. If Cleveland can weather the storm, expect this to be a three team race to the finish.
San Diego suddenly leads the division and the Dodgers are now without their ace Walker Buehler until at least September. LA has relied heavily on incredible starts from Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Andersen and both could see some regression in the second half. They’ll get Andrew Heaney back this weekend but I’d bet Andrew Friedman is looking to add another starter. The market hasn’t adjusted yet and our model shows the Padres as the biggest value yet this season. The division is still wide open and there's enough uncertainty with LAD that I’m willing to add some shares of San Diego where it makes sense.
MLB Divisional Parlay of the Week: HOU (-1100) + NYY (-550) + SDP (+250)