My favorite matchup tonight is between the AL Wildcard leading Blue Jays and the Central leading Twins. After breaking in as a top prospect with Minnesota, Jose Berrios was dealt to Toronto at the 2021 deadline. Now he returns to his former home and will face their new pitcher Tyler Mahle who was just acquired at this year's deadline.
Berrios has been flat out bad in his first full season north of the border but he’s always performed well at Target Field and can pile up Ks even when he’s struggling. Likewise, Mahle previously flashed elite K rates in 2019 despite an inconsistent career to date. Perhaps he can recapture previous success in his first stint outside of hitter friendly Great American Ballpark.
Both offenses rank among the bottom half in K% vRHP but they still strike out well over 20% and can be victimized by good pitching. I’ll take the pitching side here and the over on 5.5 Ks for both Berrios and Mahle. Consider also adding Twins ML (+106) as home underdogs in what is essentially a 50/50 matchup.