Signing a free agent player to a Top-5 free agent contract in the NBA is no recipe for long-term stability with the team the player signs with. Of the 35 players that were signed over the last 7 free agency periods (Top-5 signed contracts per the last 7 years), 45% of those contracts had some kind of movement, trade or waived, before the contract expired. 40% of the contracts had been traded before the contract had expired, but when looking at the period of 2015-16 through 2018-19, a four-year span, that number goes up to 75%. Moreover, a few of the contracts (Jimmy Butler, Chris Paul, Otto Porter Jr.) had been traded two times within that signed contract.
Movement over the last 7 years (through June 26, 2022):
- Players traded at least once within contract: 14 (40%)
- Players extended before the end of the contract: 5 (14%)
- Players waived at some point before contract expires: 2 (5%)
While the last three free agency periods have a majority of the players with the teams they signed, it is already been rumored that a few players are already on the trade block:
- Tobias Harris (PHI) has been rumored numerous times over the last 12 months
- Kevin Durant (BKN) is now mulling his tenure with the Brooklyn Nets
- Anthony Davis (LAL) has been rumored of recent to possibly be traded
- John Collins (ATL) has been rumored to potentially be traded before the new league year begins
- Duncan Robinson (MIA) has come up in reports as to what to do with him and his contract moving forward
If the trend from 2015-16 through 2018-19 continues into the contracts signed from 2019-20 through 2021-22 where the players having been rumored to be traded becomes a reality, we’re talking about a around a 50-75% chance that a player who signs a Top-5 contract in a free agency period is likely to be moved at some point before the contract expires. If you are a fan of any of the top signed free agents moving forward, beware that that player is likely going to get moved at some point in the future - most likely Year 3 or Year 4 of that contract based on what has transpired in the past.
2015-16
Signed with: Memphis Grizzlies
Contract Signed: 5 year, $113,211,750 (AAV: $22,642,350)
What Happened?
- Traded in Year 4 to Toronto
Signed with: Cleveland Cavaliers
Contract Signed: 5 year, $113,211,750 (AAV: $22,642,350)
What Happened?
- Signed a 4 year $120 million extension with Cleveland in Year 4
Signed with: San Antonio
Contract Signed: 5 year, $94,343,125 (AAV: $18,868,625)
What Happened?
- Traded to Toronto in Year 4
Signed with: Chicago Bulls
Contract Signed: 5 year, $92,339,878 (AAV: $18,467,976)
What Happened?
- Trade to Minnesota in Year 3
- Traded to Philadelphia in Year 4
- Declined Player Option for Year 5 to become an Unrestricted Free Agent
Signed with: LA Clippers
Contract Signed: 4 year, $87,616,050 (AAV: $21,904,013)
What Happened?
- Declined Player Option in Year 4 to become an Unrestricted Free Agent
2016-17
Signed with: Memphis Grizzlies
Contract Signed: 5 year, $152,605,578 (AAV: $30,521,116)
What Happened?
- Traded to Utah in Year 4
Signed with: Toronto Raptors
Contract Signed: 5 year, $139,000,000 (AAV: $27,800,000)
What Happened?
- Trade to San Antonio in Year 3
Signed with: Washington Wizards
Contract Signed: 5 year, $127,171,313 (AAV: $25,434,263)
What Happened?
- Signed a 2 year extension with Washington going into Year 4
Signed with: Detroit Pistons
Contract Signed: 5 year, $127,171,313 (AAV: $25,434,263)
What Happened?
- Traded to Cleveland in Year 4
- Waived via buyout by Cleveland in Year 5
Signed with: Charlotte Hornets
Contract Signed: 5 year, $120,000,000 (AAV: $24,000,000)
What Happened?
- Exercised Player Option in Year 5
- Waived and stretched by Charlotte 13 days after exercising Player Option
2017-18
Signed with: Golden State Warriors
Contract Signed: 5 year, $201,158,790 (AAV: $40,231,758)
What Happened?
- Signed a 4 year $215 million contract extension with Golden State going into Year 5
Signed with: Detroit Pistons
Contract Signed: 5 year, $171,174,820 (AAV: $34,234,964)
What Happened?
- Traded to Detroit in Year 1
- Waived via buyout in Year 3
Signed with: Boston Celtics
Contract Signed: 4 year, $127,829,970 (AAV: $31,957,493)
What Happened?
- Declined Player Option in Year 4 to become an Unrestricted Free Agent
Signed with: New Orleans Pelicans
Contract Signed: 5 year, $126,000,000 (AAV: $25,200,000)
What Happened?
- Traded to Milwaukee in Year 4
Signed with: Brooklyn Nets
Contract Signed: 4 year, $106,524,975 (AAV: $26,631,244)
What Happened?
- Traded to Chicago in Year 2
- Traded to Orlando in Year 4
2018-19
Signed with: Houston Rockets
Contract Signed: 4 year, $159,730,592 (AAV: $39,932,648)
What Happened?
- Traded to Oklahoma City in Year 2
- Traded to Phoenix in Year 3
Signed with: Los Angeles Lakers
Contract Signed: 4 year, $153,312,846 (AAV: $38,328,212)
What Happened?
- Signed a 2 year contract extension with Los Angeles going into Year 3
Signed with: Denver Nuggets
Contract Signed: 5 year, $147,710,050 (AAV: $29,542,010)
What Happened?
- Currently with Denver Nuggets
- Supermax extension eligible with Denver during 2022-23 offseason
Signed with: Oklahoma City Thunder
Contract Signed: 4 year, $136,911,936 (AAV: $34,227,984)
What Happened?
- Traded with LA Clippers in Year 2
Signed with: Orlando Magic
Contract Signed: 4 year $80,000,000 (AAV: $20,000,000)
What Happened?
- Traded to Denver in Year 3
- Signed a 4 year contract extension going into Year 4
2019-20
Signed with: Golden State Warriors
Contract Signed: 5 year, $189,903,600 (AAV: $37,980,720)
What Happened?
- Currently with Golden State
Signed with: Philadelphia 76ers
Contract Signed: 5 year, $180,000,000 (AAV: $36,000,000)
What Happened?
- Currently With Philadelphia
Signed with: Milwaukee Bucks
Contract Signed: 5 year, $177,500,000 (AAV: $35,500,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Milwaukee
Signed with: Brooklyn Nets
Contract Signed: 4 year, $164,255,700 (AAV: $41,063,925)
What Happened?
- Signed a 4 year contract extension going into Year 3
Signed with: Dallas Mavericks
Contract Signed: 5 year, $158,253,000 (AAV: $31,650,600)
What Happened?
- Traded to Washington in Year 3
2020-21
Signed with: Los Angeles Lakers
Contract Signed: 5 year, $189,903,600 (AAV: $37,980,720)
What Happened?
- Currently with Los Angeles
Signed with: New Orleans Pelicans
Contract Signed: 5 year, $158,253,000 (AAV: $31,650,600)
What Happened?
- Currently with New Orleans
Signed with: Charlotte Hornets (via Sign-and-Trade with Boston)
Contract Signed: 4 year $120,000,000 (AAV: $30,000,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Charlotte
Signed with: Toronto Raptors
Contract Signed: 4 year $85,000,000 (AAV: $21,250,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Toronto
Signed with: Washington Wizards
Contract Signed: 5 year, $80,000,000 (AAV: $16,000,000)
What Happened?
- Traded to Dallas in Year 2
2021-22
Signed with: LA Clippers
Contract Signed: 4 year, $176,265,152 (AAV: $44,066,288)
What Happened?
- Currently with LA Clippers
- Missed all of Year 1 due to season-ending injury
Signed with: Atlanta Hawks
Contract Signed: 5 year, $125,000,000 (AAV: $25,000,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Atlanta
Signed with: Phoenix Suns
Contract Signed: 4 year, $120,000,000 (AAV: $30,000,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Phoenix
Signed with: Cleveland Cavaliers
Contract Signed: 5 year, $120,000,000 (AAV: $30,000,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Cleveland
Signed with: Miami Heat
Contract Signed: 5 year, $90,000,000 (AAV: $18,000,000)
What Happened?
- Currently with Miami