Quick Spots

 

Roquan Smith asked the Bears to move on from him this summer. Three months later, that request has been granted, as the Pro Bowl linebacker is on his way to Baltimore for the next 10 weeks. Smith is playing out the 5th-year option of his rookie contract, and is currently scheduled for unrestricted free agency next March.

The Traded Contract

Smith entered 2022 on a $9.3744M 5th-year option. His remaining salary at the November 1 deadline is $5.408M. The Bears agreed to retain $4.833M of that balance, sending Smith to the Ravens on a minimum $575,000 salary for the remainder of 2022.

Original Salary: $9.3744M
Deadline Salary: $5.408M
Minimum Deadline Salary ($1.035M/18)*10: $575,000
Retained by Chicago: $8.799M

The Trade Compensation

In return for Smith, the Bears received LB A.J. Klein ($497,2200, a 2023 2nd round pick, & a 2023 5th round pick. Chicago negotiated a better draft pick package by agreeing to retain nearly all of the remaining salary on Smith’s contract this season.

Bears’ Projected 2023 Draft Picks
(excluding compensatory picks)

1st
2nd
2nd (BAL)
3rd
4th
4th (PHI)
5th
5th (BAL)
7th
7th

Roquan’s Next Contract

The move to Baltimore puts Smith’s rookie extension back in full focus, something the Bears weren’t willing to consider in their current rebuild window.

Smith carries a $16M valuation in our system to date, but it’s highly realistic to assume that he’ll be seeking a deal at or above Shaquille Leonard’s $19.7M per year deal with the Colts. Leonard’s $52.5M in practical guarantees is also the off-ball linebacker bar, while C.J. Mosley’s $43M guaranteed at signing is the current (but probably unrealistic) high. The highest total value off-ball linebacker contracts currently stand at:

Shaquille Leonard: $98.5M
Fred Warner: $95.2M
C.J. Mosley: $85M
Zach Cunningham: $58M
Deion Jones: $57M


As the #8 overall selection back in 2018, Smith is the highest drafted player in this subset. The advanced metrics have never been friendly to him, and his career season high sack total is 5 (rookie season) - so there’s at least some argument to be made that a market reset isn’t a lock here.

One thing’s for certain: With Lamar Jackson destined for the Baltimore franchise tag next February, Roquan Smith won’t be receiving one of those. Will a 5 year, $90M contract with $45M practically guaranteed get the job done?

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AFC Division Winners

EastBills (-230)

Buffalo is the second largest division favorite and while it’s hard to argue against their loaded roster there are subtle ways they could disappoint. Injury regression could set in or the offense could struggle under new OC Ken Dorsey. If one or both of those become reality and the Miami offense ascends to top 5 status under new coach Mike McDaniel, this division could finish much closer than anticipated. 

NorthRavens (+145)

I tend to think the North is a coin flip between Baltimore and Cincinnati but I’m betting on an MVP caliber season from Lamar Jackson and some regression from the Bengals offense.

SouthColts (-125)

If Matt Ryan is even marginally more consistent than Carson Wentz was in 2021, Indianapolis should sleep walk to a division title. I don’t like betting against Mike Vrabel but Tennessee  swapped AJ Brown for an unproven rookie and Derrick Henry is coming off a pretty significant foot injury. I suspect this quickly turns into a rebuilding year for the Titans.

WestChargers (+240)

To be clear, I’m still high on the Chiefs and think their predicted demise is premature. The way they win will look different than years past but the sum of their parts is better than people give them credit for. That being said, I just really like this Chargers squad. Tons of continuity on their already elite offense and the addition of Khalil Mack changes the entire dynamic of their defense. I’m betting this is the year it all comes together for them.


AFC Wildcard:  Chiefs, Dolphins

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