The Colts have been playing on house many over the past 3 seasons, getting maximum value from their wage-scaled youth in QB Andrew Luck, WR T.Y. Hilton, and a paid of solid TEs in Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. But the time to lock these players in to veteran contracts is creeping up, and it's possibly, if not likely, that all of these pieces won't be able to stay intact in the immediate future.
We'll focus here on Hilton, who has increased production in each of his first 3 years, quickly becoming Andrew Luck's goto target in many situations. We'll take a close look at his production over the past 2 seasons, comparing it to a group of variable receivers of similar age who have recently signed extensions to forecast Hiltons' current value heading toward the 2015 season.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL
Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Dez Bryant (2013-14, DAL)||16||5.625||79.8||9.25||.906|
|Demaryius Thomas (2013-14, DEN)||16||6.375||95.3||10.18||.78|
|Jeremy Maclin (2013-14, PHI)||16||5.31||82.4||8.9||.625|
|Mike Wallace (2011-12, PIT)||15.5||4.38||65.6||7.51||.51|
|T.Y. Hilton (2013-14, IND)||15.5||5.29||78.3||8.7||.38|
|AVERAGE PRIME %:||-11.38%|
|MEDIAN PRIME %||-2.90%|
Hilton's overall production is a bit below the average of our variables here, in that he doesn't excel in any one major statistical category. He's hurt most by his inability to find the endzone, likely because the Colts are built to score TDs in other ways (double TEs, power running, etc). We'll factor in both the Average and Median percentages to show a range projection below.
Length of the Contract
Our variable receiver contracts averaged out to 5 years. Hilton won't be 26 years old until mid November, meaning a 5 year extension (added on to his 2015 salary) is well within range here.
Value of the Contract
Hilton has quickly turned himself into a big-game player for Andrew Luck and the Colts offense. Indy added veteran pieces around him this offseason in WR Andre Johnson and RB Frank Gore to further their chances to contend in the AFC, so it's a likely step for the Colts to lock in Hilton at some point this summer. Financially speaking, the earlier the better. We'll break out our MEDIAN and AVERAGE figures:
Low Value (HOMETOWN DISCOUNT)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (-11.38%), we're forecasting Hilton as the 5th highest average paid WR:
5 years, $56,950,000 | $11,390,000 per year | $30,100,000 guaranteed
High Value (MAX-VALUE DEAL)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage ( 6.87%), we're forecasting Hilton as the 4th highest average paid WR:
5 years, $62,500,000 | $12,500,000 per year | $33,125,000 guaranteed
We'll split the difference to offer the best-value forecast for Hilton's next contract: