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Statistically Valuing Robert Griffin III

Statistically Valuing Robert Griffin III
Untitled Document

Contract Forecast: Robert Griffin III

To be clear from the start here, this valuation is purely from a "what-if" position, as in "what if RG3 was still the Redskins starting QB" or "what if RG3 is released, signs a small deal elsewhere, and is being considered for a long-term extension based on his reborn excellence".

We're simply looking at Griffin statistically here, both as a passing QB and with his ability to run. We'll compare him in this manner to a strong set of young quarterbacks who have recently been extended with their respective teams, to formulate a mathematical valuation for Robert Griffin III.

Comparable Quarterbacks
To generate a prediction the Spotrac team determined that the following quarterbacks were viable targets to use in comparing with Griffin. The key was to locate players with similar numbers, who signed their second contract around Griffin's current age (25). Here's a look at the new money for each extension signed by each. To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract breakdown listed below.
Player Length Value Avg. Salary Guaranteed Age When Signed
Russell Wilson 4 $87,600,000 $21,900,000 $61,542,000 26
Cam Newton 5 $103,800,000 $20,760,000 $60,000,000 26
Colin Kaepernick 6 $114,000,000 $19,000,000 $61,000,000 26
Ryan Tannehill  4 $77,000,000 $19,250,000 $45,000,000 27
Averages 5 $97,000,000 $18,500,000.00 $44,250,000.00 26.5
At 25 years old, Griffin remains younger than all of our variable quarterbacks. We'll adjust the above contracts down to reflect each as if it were signed at the age of 25 to provide a better scope for our base prediction.

Related:  View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
Length Value Avg. Salary (slope)
5 $99,300,000 $19,860,000

Passing Statistical Comparisons
We'll first assess Griffin as a Passing QB only, comparing him to our variable QBS in terms of Games Played, Pass YD/G, Passing TDs/G, Sacks/G, INTs/G, and Completion % per Season.
Player Games/YR PASS YD/G Pass TD/G Sacks/G INT/YR Comp %/YR
Russell Wilson
(13-14, SEA)
16 217.2 1.43 2.7 .5 63.1
Cam Newton
(13-14, CAR)
15 216.9 1.4 2.68 .83 60.2
Colin Kaepernick
(12-13, SF)
14.5 172.8 1.13 1.89 0.38 59.8
Ryan Tannehill
(13-14, MIA)
16 248.7 1.625 3.25 .875 63.4
AVERAGES 15.375 213.9 1.4 2.63 .64 61.625
Robert Griffin III
(13-14, WAS)
11 222.6 .9 3.27 .81 62.8
% Change -28.46% 4.07% -35.54% -24.33% -25.34% 1.91%
MEDIAN PRIME PErcentage: -24.84%
Griffin's production pales in comparison across the board here. While his yardage and completion percentages basically average out, he's missed well more time, been sacked far more times, and throws far more interceptions than our variables. We'll factor both of these figures into our work below.

RushingStatistical Comparisons
Now let's take a look at how these quarterbacks rate in terms of rushing statistics. We'll compare Rush Attempts per Game, Rushing Yards per Game, Rushing TD per Game, and fumbles per game.
Player ATt/G Yds/G Td/G Fum/G
Russell Wilson
(13-14, SEA)
7.13 37.5 .36 .5
Cam Newton
(13-14, CAR)
6.68 43.4 .21 .78
Colin Kaepernick
(12-13, SF)
5.57 32.4 .32 .64
Ryan Tannehill
(13-14, MIA)
3 17.2 .06 .59
AVERAGES 5.59 32.6 .2375 .6275
Robert Griffin III
(13-14, WAS)
5.63 30.2 .045 .9
% Change .63% -7.43% -81.05% -43.43%
average PRIME PERCENTAGE: -32.82%
MEDIAN PRIME PErcentage: -25.43%

Somewhat surprisingly, Griffin's rushing numbers appear to be even WORSE in comparison to our variables - even when including a less mobile player in Tannehill. We'll apply these percentages to our bottom line below.


Length of the Contract
At 25 years old, age is certainly not an issue (one of the few things in his favor right now). We'll round our averages down to an even 5 years (assuming he's released and has no option year for 2016).

Value of the Contract
In terms of mathematics, and in the general role of the quarterback position across the league, it doesn't make sense to weigh the passing analysis and the rushing analysis evenly. With that being said, we'll apply our prime pecentages at a 70/30 ratio between the two categories respectively. This means we'll assess Robert at:

-25.01% Median Prime Percentage, and a -22.41% Average Prime Percantage. Our initial base contract provided an average salary of more than $19.8M per year, a figure that would place him 9th among active quarterbacks. When factoring this with our Prime Figures:

Low Value (Hometown Discount)
Utilizing our Median Prime Percentage (-25.01%), we're provided with a lower, but still generous annual average.
5 years, $74,490,796 | $14,898,159 per year
High Value
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (-22.41%), we've given a slightly bigger annual average:
5 years, $77,073,488 | $15,414,697 per year

Final Thoughts
The long and short of this analysis is that regardless of his positives, RG3's inability to lead his team, be it through the offseason or in terms of winning on the field, far outweigh the good. Now barely a starting quarterback, he'll never be evaluated on this level until he's proven he can maximize his abilities (likely with another team).

When averaging our two values, we're given the following mathematical evaluation for Robert Griffin III:
Mathematical Valuation: 5 years, $75,782,142
Average annual salary $15,156,428

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