The Broncos had 22 unrestricted free agents this past offseason, and watched many of them walk away to big paydays elsewhere. This included the loss of star TE Julius Thomas, who received a whopping 5 year $46M free agent contract from the Jaguars. In return for these subtractions, it appears Denver is close to coming to terms on a long-term extension for WR Demaryuis Thomas, who was offered a $12.8M franchise tag for the upcoming 2015 season. We'll compare Thomas' recent production against a set of variable wide receivers of similar age and skill to formulate a value projection for what his new deal might look like.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL
Because Thomas will likely be 27 years old at the time of his next contract, we'll adjust the above contracts for Bowe/Johnson up/down to normalize them as if they also signed their deals at age 27. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||REC/G||REC YDs/G||Tar/G||REC TD/YR|
|Mike Wallace (2011-12, PIT)||15.5||4.38||65.5||7.25||8|
|Jeremy Maclin (2013-14, PHI)||15.5||4.96||69.75||8.54||8.5|
|Dwayne Bowe (2011-12, KC)||14.5||5.18||67.6||8.25||4|
|Calvin Johnson (2010-11, DET)||15.5||5.54||90.4||9.51||14|
|Demaryius Thomas (2013-14, DEN)||16||6.375||95.3||10.18||12.5|
|AVERAGE PRIME %:||25.67%|
|MEDIAN PRIME %:||27.18%|
Length of the Contract
Now 27 years old, Thomas is likely looking at a 5 year deal, replacing the franchise tag he's currently sitting on for the 2015 season. This deal should carry him through the 2019 season, at 32 years of age.
Value of the Contract
Thomas has been high character, elite, exceptionally productive, reliable, and clutch - a recipe for disaster when it comes to negotiations from the front office. When Factoring in our previously determined Prime Percentages, we're left with the following:
Low Value (Hometown Discount)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (20.31%)
5 years, $80,529,000 | $16,105,800 per year | $36,000,000 guaranteed
Utilizing our Median Prime Percentage (21.37%), we've given a slightly bigger forecast:
5 years, $81,239,000 | $16,247,800 per year | $38,400,000 guaranteed
When averaging our two values, we're given the following forecast for Demaryius Thomas' potential extension: