NFL Offseason Financial Analysis: Wide Receivers
As the 2023 NFL offseason closes in, Spotrac's Positional Breakdown series continues with a deep dive into the financial statuses of each team's running back position, including rostered players, remaining term & guarantees, and stability at the starting & backup roles.
SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR
Arizona Cardinals
Status: Hollywood’s Team
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $15M
DeAndre Hopkins saw all of his future salary guarantees void per his 2022 PED suspension, but the 30 year old is still averaging 7 grabs and 80 yards per game in Arizona. His $30.75M cap hit currently ranks 2nd among all Wide Receivers, so another salary restructure could be in order for 2023. Was his trade request for real? The Cardinals $8.1M of cap space with an early trade of Hopkins. Also, why is a great wide receiver trying to leave Kyler Murray?
Marquise Brown was acquired at least year’s draft, on the cusp of Hopkins’ PED news. He carries a fully guaranteed $13.4M 5th year option next season, but a multi-year extension is likely - though probably not great timing for the 25 year old. Injury and a dip in production (especially touchdowns) has lowered his valuation into the $17M per year range in our system.
Robbie Anderson was acquired from Carolina at the deadline to fill a few injury voids. It’s a lock that they’ll take the $12M to be freed by moving on next March. Rondale Moore carries a non-guaranteed 2 year $2.9M remaining, while Greg Dortch is slated for restricted free agency.
Atlanta Falcons
Status: Bueller?
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $56M
Drake London will enter year 2, presumably with a new quarterback, and extremely high expectations. His rookie deal contains 3 year, $8M (fully guaranteed) + a 2026 option.
Behind him Olamide Zaccheaus, Damiere Byrd, & Khadarel Hodge are all slated for unrestricted free agency this March, leaving the cupboards pretty bare.
Baltimore Ravens
Status: Seeking Durability (and maybe a true #1)
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $32M
Rashod Bateman battled injury again in 2022, making a healthy 2023 a must for the 23 year old. His rookie deal contains 2 years, $4.1M (fully guaranteed) + a 2025 option.
Devin Duvernay will be entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.1M. Despite a significant foot injury and mild production in the receiving game for 3 seasons, his value as a return man should put him in contention for an offseason extension.
Demarcus Robinson & Sammy Watkins are both slated to hit free agency.
Buffalo Bills
Status: Status Quo.
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$5M
Stefon Diggs locked in $70M on a $96M extension this past April, including $24M next season. His $20M cap hit should be tenable for the Bills, who can free up cap space elsewhere as needed.
Gabriel Davis will be entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M. He’s a light extension candidate, though the Bills are probably happy to get another cost-controlled year to evaluate where the next 3-4 years might be headed at the #2/#3 WR positions. It’s a position of need both in free agency & via the draft this offseason. Davis’ future could follow the Christian Kirk path ($18M+, increased role), or the Michael Gallup path ($11.5M, reduced role).
Behind them,Isaiah McKenzie is due a non-guaranteed $2.2M ($2.5M cap hit), 5th rounder Khalil Shakir holds a non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M, while Jamison Crowder & Jake Kumerow are unrestricted free agents,
Carolina Panthers
Status: More like Moore.
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$4M
D.J. Moore signed a 3 year extension that included $41.6M fully guaranteed through part of 2024. A full base salary restructure can free up $15.1M of his current $25M cap hit next year.
Behind him, Terrace Marshall holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2.6M, Shi Smith holds a non-guaranteed 2 year $1.95M, & Laviska Shenault holds a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1.65M.
Safe to say there’s a new pass catcher or two to be added alongside a new QB1.
Chicago Bears
Status: Find Fields a Few (great) Friends
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $115M
Acquired at this year’s deadline, Chase Claypool holds a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1.5M through 2023, his contract year. It’s tough to imagine an early extension making sense here.
Darnell Mooney wasn’t holding up to his 2021 breakout even before his season-ending ankle injury. He’ll be entering a contract year in 2023, on a non-guaranteed 1M salary. The Bears probably want to see him re-find that top form before considering a new deal.
2022 3rd rounder Velus Jones will be back in the mix, holding a non-guaranteed 3 year, $3.6M deal, while 4 vets (Byron Pringle, N'Keal Harry, Dante Pettis, & Equanimeous St. Brown) are slated for unrestricted free agency.
Cincinnati Bengals
Status: Searching Couches for Coins
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $49M
Ja'Marr Chase doesn’t become extension-eligible until after the 2023 season, as his rookie contract holds 2 years, $8.2M fully guaranteed + 2025 option. The 22-year-old is already a $25M+ player in our system.
Tee Higgins does become extension eligible this March, having posted career-highs across the board (even with 1 less game on the books in 2022). How the Bengals decide to handle deals for Burrow, Higgins, & Chase (to name a few) over the next 18 months will be a fascinating watch. He’s a 4 year, $80M player in our system currently.
Tyler Boyd is a roster bubble candidate this March, staring down a $10.3M cap hit that can free up $8.9M if he’s moved on from. UDFA Trenton Irwin has already begun to sneak a few targets away from him this season, so the writing may already be on the wall.
Cleveland Browns
Status: A Redo for Coop?
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$9M
Amari Cooper holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $40M contract through 2024, and his cap hit jumps to $23.7M next season (6th among WRs). The Browns have roster holes to address, and minimal cap space to work with (even after they restructure Deshaun Watson’s historic cap hit). Cooper probably did enough this year to show he’s still a true WR1 in this league, and at 29 year old, should warrant a restructured contract this offseason. Stefon Diggs’ 4 year, $96M deal in Buffalo is a strong target here.
Behind him, Donovan Peoples-Jones emerged as the clear #2 option, but is entering a contract year himself in 2023 (non-guaranteed $1M). Cleveland likely lets him play it out, banking on a lack of competition for his services come March 2024.
A bevy of non-guaranteed rookie contracts remain intact for 2023 behind them.
Dallas Cowboys
Status: CeeDee Pay Day
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $5.8M
CeeDee Lamb becomes extension eligible this offseason, currently projecting toward a 4 year, $90M deal in our system. With Amari Cooper now off of the books, and Michael Gallup in on a team-friendly price, there should be plenty to go around for a Lamb deal.
Michael Gallup’s $57M extension this past March contains only $27M fully guaranteed, including $11M in 2023. Noah Brown is slated for unrestricted free agency.
Denver Broncos
Status: Potential Shake Up
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13M
Courtland Sutton enters Year 3 of a 5 year, $63M contract, and is fully guaranteed at $14M through 2023. The final 2 years, $27.5M of his deal are non-guaranteed.
Jerry Jeudy enters a potential contract year (Broncos must decide on his 5th year option this May), coming off of his most productive season (67 catches, 972 yards, 6 TDs). Has he done enough to warrant sticking around for a few more seasons? Will Denver listen to trade offers this spring? Tim Patrick should be back in the fold with $5.5M of his $8.5M compensation already fully guaranteed. He’ll have a 1 year, $10M “option” after 2023.
K.J. Hamler might be the odd man out this spring, as the speedster can’t stay healthy, and his expiring contract can free up $1.5M if moved on from.
Detroit Lions
Status: Young & Talented
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $18M
Amon-Ra St. Brown has 196 catches, 2,073 yards, and 11 TDs in his first two NFL seasons. The 4th rounder is a diamond in the rough, and holds 2 years, $2M (non-guaranteed) remaining on his rookie deal. He becomes extension eligible after the 2023 season.
Behind him, 1st rounder Jameson Williams started to find his sea legs by the end of 2022, and his 3 years, $6.7M (fully guaranteed) plus a 2026 option will offer great value for the Lions to keep building around.
Josh Reynolds remained productive as a complimentary option and his $3.25M salary ($3.9M cap hit) shouldn’t be a problem. DJ Chark is a pending free agent, projecting to a 3 year, $28M deal in our system.
Green Bay Packers
Status: Young, Talented, but Thin
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$14M
Christian Watson took big steps toward being the next true WR1 in Green Bay, and his 3 year, $4.6M contract (mostly guaranteed) should remain outstanding value. 2022 4th rounder Romeo Doubs looks the part as well, especially at 3 years, $2.9M (non-guaranteed).
Allen Lazard & Randall Cobb are both pending UFAs, so the Packers will (once again) need to address the WR room this March if they want Aaron Rodgers back in the fold.
Houston Texans
Status: Let Go Brandin
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $41M
Brandin Cooks said his goodbye after Week 18, which complicates the 2 years, $35M ($18M guaranteed) remaining on his contract. They may have to eat a bit of that 2023 compensation to get him out the door, but it seems inevitable.
Chris Moore & Phillip Dorsett are pending free agents, while a host of youngsters (Amari Rodgers, Nico Collins to name a few) are on near minimums for the next few seasons. 2022 2nd rounder John Metchie (leukemia) has a chance to be ready for the 2023 season. His rookie deal holds 3 years, $4.2M remaining.
Houston has a lot of building to do before they’re ready to pay for weapons.
Indianapolis Colts
Status: QB First Please
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $20M
Michael Pittman Jr. enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.7M. He has 184 catches and almost 2,000 yards receiving over the past two seasons, though many of his other metrics dipped in 2022. Christian Kirk’s 4 year, $72M deal is a likely baseline here.
Elsewhere Parris Campbell & Ashton Dulin are pending free agents, while 2022 2nd rounder Alec Pierce carries a 3 year, $3.9M deal, $1M guaranteed.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Status: Ridley’s Believe it or Not
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$18M
Christian Kirk’s bigtime free agent deal looks great 9 months later. He’ll earn a fully guaranteed $16M next season with a non-guaranteed 2 years, $33M thereafter. Zay Jones enters Year 2 of a 3 year, $24M contract, and will earn a fully guaranteed $8M next season. While the versatile Jamal Agnew brings a non-guaranteed $4.75M, $5.8M cap hit to the table.
And oh by the way, the Jags acquired Calvin Ridley from the Falcons at the deadline, bringing in his (now) non-guaranteed $11.1M 5th year option salary for 2023. Vet Marvin Jones is slated for free agency this March.
Kansas City Chiefs
Status: Good JuJu?
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $14M
After a 78 catch, 933 yard season, JuJu Smith-Schuster is slated for free agency, posting a $14.6M valuation in our system. Marquez Valdes-Scantling enters Year 2 of his 3 year, $30M deal, and most of his $9M compensation for 2023 fully guarantees March 17th. While unlikely, it’s possible for the Chiefs to move on from MVS prior to that date, saving $7M of cap. Mecole Hardman is also set for free agency this March.
Deadline acquisition Kadarius Toney holds a fully guaranteed 2 year, $4.4M, plus a 5th-year option for 2025. While youngster, Skyy Moore carries 3 years, $3.8M remaining on his rookie contract.
Las Vegas Raiders
Status: Much of the Same
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $21M
Davante Adams enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $140M contract in Vegas, including $26.6M cash, and a friendly $14.7M cap hit. Another $43M of compensation becomes fully guaranteed this March, locking him in through 2024.
Hunter Renfrow enters Year 2 of a 3 year, $34M deal, including $11.5M cash (half guaranteed) on a $13.1M cap hit, while Mack Hollins & Keelan Cole are slated for free agency. There shouldn’t be too much movement here, but a new QB can always change things.
Los Angeles Chargers
Status: Restructure & Repair
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$19M
Keenan Allen holds 2 years, $42.1M remaining on his deal, including a $3.5M roster bonus due March 19th. A full cash restructure + 3 void years can open up more than $14M of space this March. Mike Williams enters Year 2 of his 3 year, $60M extension, including $12M cash and a $19M cap hit for 2023. A full cash restructure + 3 void years can open up more than $8.7M this March.
Josh Palmer’s rookie contract contains 2 years, $2.4M non-guaranteed remaining, while ??Deandre Carter & Jalen Guyton are slated for free agency.
Los Angeles Rams
Status: Running it Back Healthy
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$2.6M
Cooper Kupp holds 4 year, $79.85M remaining on his deal, and another $35M of it becomes fully guaranteed on March 17th. $15M of his $27.8M cap hit for 2023 can be opened up with a full compensation restructure.
Allen Robinson is fully guaranteed at $15.25M this season, while Van Jefferson enters a contract year on a non-guaranteed $1.3M & Ben Skowronek holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2M deal.
It’s tough to expect much movement if at all here.
Miami Dolphins
Status: Back Fill
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$14M
Tyreek Hill enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $140M contract, set to earn $26.1M on a $31.45M cap figure. A full cash restructure + a void year can open up $19.8M of cap space.
Jaylen Waddle’s rookie deal contains 2 years, $7.5M guaranteed plus a 5th year option for 2025. He had an up and down 2022, but still shows plenty of big time player potential - and value.
With $5M of Cedrick Wilson’s 2023 salary fully guaranteed, he’s a lock to be back next season.
Minnesota Vikings
Status: Pay Him or Trade Him
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$13M
Justin Jefferson only has 324 catches, 4,825 yards, and 25 TDs in his first three seasons, which should only translate to about $27M per year if and when the Vikings decide paying him right now is the best business decision. He’s now extension eligible for the first time.
Longtime #2 Adam Thielen probably falls off of this roster, as moving on from the 32 year old can free up $6.4M this March. K.J. Osborn enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M in the final season of his rookie contract.
With Cousins entering a contract year, Dalvin Cook entering the backside, and the defense full of aging vets, is this the right time to be extending weapons? How Minnesota handles the Jefferson situation over the next 24 months will be must watch.
New England Patriots
Status: Swing Big
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $46M
Jakobi Meyers is a pending free agent, projected to bank a 4 year, $50M deal in our system.
Vet DeVante Parker enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $6.3M, all of which can fall off the books if he’s moved on from.
Underutilized weapon Kendrick Bourne enters a contract year, set to earn $5.5M on a $6.8M cap hit, while Nelson Agholor is slated for free agency this March.
This feels like a roster that needs to find a true #1 - potentially via trade.
New Orleans Saints
Status: Olave & the Field
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$52M
Chris Olave was everything he was drafted to be almost immediately out of the gate, and his progression will only make life easier for New Orleans, who hold him on 3 years, $7.25M plus a 2026 option year.
Michael Thomas’ restructured his deal for one of two reasons: to make 2023 a swan song, or to make it easier for New Orleans to move on this March. We’ll assume the latter, meaning they’ll designate him a Post 6/1 release on March 15th, carry his $13.6M cap hit through June 1st, then take on $12M of dead cap this year, $14M next year, freeing up another $1.7M of space. He’ll be free to sign with a new team in March.
Tre'quan Smith has a $200,000 roster bonus due March 19th. The Saints can free up $1.9M of space by moving on before that. Jarvis Landry & Deonte Harty should both be allowed to hit the open market.
New York Giants
Status: They Bought Out Kenny.
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $56M
The Kenny Golladay experiment shouldn’t be allowed to continue, but there’s a fully guaranteed $4.5M roster bonus sitting in the way right now. If the Giants are willing to pay it out as a parting gift, they can free up $11.2M of cap space by moving on this March.
2022 2nd rounder Wan'dale Robinson will be back in the fold with 3 years, $4.26M, as will Isaiah Hodgins on a minimum salary. But Darius Slayton, Richie James, & Sterling Shepard are all slated for free agency.
New York Jets
Status: Seeking a #2
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $8.1M
Garrett Wilson is a Rookie of the Year candidate after his 74 catch, 1,014 yard inaugural season, and his fully guaranteed 3 year, $7.7M (plus 2026 option) contract should offer the Jets immense value. He won’t become extension eligible until after the 2024 campaign.
Corey Davis enters a contract year, set to earn $10.5M on an $11.1M cap hit. All $10.5M can be free up if the Jets decide to go in a different direction.
Elijah Moore will get his wish with a new OC next season, and his 2 year, $3.3M remaining rookie contract makes him good value to stay, or a solid trade chip as well. The Denzel Mims era in NY is likely over, as the Jets can free up $1.35M with an outright release or trade.
Philadelphia Eagles
Status: Healthy.
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $10M
A.J. Brown’s response to being acquired and handed a $100M contract was a career high 88 catches, 1,500 yards, and 11 TDs. He’ll be fully guaranteed through 2024 come March 17th, but even paying this guy $57M for 3 years seems a heck of a deal right now.
Sort of under the radar, DeVonta Smith caught 95 balls for 1,200 yards and 7 TDs in his sophomore campaign. He’s fully guaranteed at 2 years, $6M + a 5th year option in 2025, and becomes extension eligible after the 2023 season.
Quez Watkins enters a contract year, and his release can free up $1M of space if needed. Oh and by the way, they hold the #10 pick in April’s draft.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Status: Value
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$302k
Diontae Johnson signed a 2 year, $36M extension last August, but as the Steelers tend to do - only 2022 was fully guaranteed at signing. He’s set to earn $10.5M in 2023 (including a $2.5M March roster bonus), and a simple restructure of that compensation plus void years can open up over $7.5M of cap space.
George Pickens looks every bit the part as the next great Steelers WR draft pick. Only $1M of his remaining 3 years, $3.9M is guaranteed, and he won’t be extension eligible until after the 2024 season. Value at its finest.
There are 6 other WRs under contract or team control, but with two second round picks this April, don’t count out another young weapon being added into the mix.
San Francisco 49ers
Status: Aiyuk’s Option
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13.5M
Deebo Samuel enters Year 2 of a 4 year, $76M deal, set to earn $11.3M on a very friendly $8.5M cap hit. He’s stable through at least 2024.
Brandon Aiyuk put together a very strong 2022 (78 grabs, 1,015 yards, 8 TDs) at a time when he needed it most. San Francisco will have to decide on his 5th year option this May putting his fully guaranteed 1 year, $2.3M deal on a bit of notice.
Jauan Jennings was an unlikely #3 last season, and with a minimum salary going forward, should remain in the mix even if the Niners add another weapon here.
Seattle Seahawks
Status: Find a Number Three
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $34.5M
D.K. Metcalf enters Year 2 of a 4 year, $76M contract, set to carry a very tenable $13.72M cap hit next season. Tyler Lockett enters his age 31 season, and his contract holds a pretty clear potential out after 2023, but a $9.7M payout, $16.75M cap hit won’t hurt anyone.
It’s probably time to eat crow on the D'Wayne Eskridge bust pick and move on this March, taking on $844k of dead cap, freeing up $778k.
Marquise Goodwin was productive in a complimentary role, but his (annual) injury history might make it tough to run it back.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Status: Why Don’t You Just Go Without Mike?
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$55M
Chris Godwin enters year 2 of a 3 year, $60M deal, and will almost certainly see his $20M base salary restructured (clearing up a max $15.1M of space).
Mike Evans is entering a contract year, and his status is questionable. Are the Bucs in the right position to lock in another (30 year old) weapon right now? Are the draft picks brought back in a trade potentially more valuable to this franchise right now? It’s a 1 year, $14.5M ($1.5M March bonus), with a $23.6M cap hit - and the Bucs would only free up $2.3M of space with an early trade, but it’s still a maybe.
Julio Jones & Breshad Perriman are both likely allowed to test the open market this March.
Tennessee Titans
Status: Burks & a Reboot
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$23M
Injury kept Treylon Burks’ inaugural campaign at bay, but he’ll be asked to take a big step forward over the 3 years, $6M fully guaranteed plus a 5th year option through 2026.
Robert Woods gave Tennessee 17 weeks last year, but it probably wasn’t productive enough to justify $13.75M for 2023. There’s $12M of much needed to cap to open up by moving on here.
There are multiple additions to be made here.
Washington Commanders
Status: Ready for a Consistent QB
2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $12.5
Terry McLaurin enters year 2 of a 5 year, $71M contract in Washington with a fully guaranteed $5.4M to boot. $12.5M of his 2024 compensation fully guarantees on March 17th as well.
The Commanders finally got the production they were seeking out of Curtis Samuel in 2022, and he’ll enter a contract year this season, set to earn a non-guaranteed $10.6M. There’s $5.8M of space to be freed up if they want to go in a different direction.
Jahan Dotson is fully guaranteed at 3 years, $6.6M + a 2026 option, while Dyami Brown owns a non-guaranteed 2 years, $2.1M.
