One of the more unique stories surfacing this offseason has been OT Russell Okung's path to his next contract. Okung has made it clear that he plans to represent himself while seeking his next payday - a trend that some thing may start to catch on sooner than later across the league.
The Seahawks has a whole have certainly had their plate full of contract discussions this offseason, from the grinding process currently going on with QB Russell Wilson, to a nearly $10M expected extension for ILB Bobby Wagner. Okung doesn't gather to meet the financial complications that these two might, but he's been an important part of a great team over the past few seasons.
All said, we'll compare Okung's statistical production over the past few seasons to a group of other left tackles who signed extensions at a similar age with their respective teams to produce a value forecast for what his forthcoming contract might look like.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Guaranteed||Age When Signed|
|Tyron Smith (DAL)||8||$97,600,000||$12,200,000||$22,118,013||24|
|Joe Thomas (CLE)||7||$80,500,000||$11,500,000||$28,500,000||26|
|D'Brickashaw Ferguson (NYJ)||6||$60,000,000||$10,000,000||$34,800,000||26|
|Ryan Clady (DEN)||5||$52,500,000||$10,500,000||$15,000,000||26|
We'll adjust their contracts up to reflect each as if it were signed at the age of 27 to provide a better scope for our base prediction.
Related: View the list of Top Average Defensive Ends in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Tyron Smith (13-14, DAL)||15.5||10.8||.129||2.064||.58|
|Joe Thomas (09-10, CLE)||16||34.8||.25||.59||.28|
|D'Brickashaw Ferguson (09-10, NYJ)||16||25.7||.25||.78||.375|
|Ryan Clady (11-12, DEN)||16||3.5||.21||1.46||.59|
|Russell Okung (13-14, SEA)||11||-1.75||.18||1.54||.77|
|AVERAGE PRIME PERCENTAGE:||-43.88%|
|MEDIAN PRIME PErcentage:||-30.71%|
Okung has missed time in every season since joining the league in 2010, including seeing action in just 22 games over the past two seasons - a red flag.
Length of the Contract
While some of the recent extensions for tackles have pushed out to 7 or 8 years, at 27 years old it's not likely that Okung follows suit. We'll keep him at a standard 5 year deal for purposes of this projection.
Thoughts on Valuing the Contract
The base value of our forecast provided a contract averaging just north of $11M per year, 3rd most among active left tackles. However Okung's inability to stack up (even close) to our variable's statistical production forced a huge decrease in numbers as we continued on. Okung's best case scenario may be to play out the 2015 season, hoping to increase his production AND prove he can stay on the field for 16 games. Should the Seahawks decide to move on, he'll find bloated offers in the open free agent market - like left tackles always do.
Low Value (HOMETOWN DISCOUNT)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (-43.88%), we're forecasting Okung as the 17th highest average paid LT:
5 years, $31,300,000 | $6,260,000 per year | $10,016,000 guaranteed
High Value (MAX-VALUE DEAL)
Utilizing our Median Prime Percentage (-6.24%), we're forecasting Okung as the 11th highest average paid LT:
5 years, $38,700,000 | $7,740,000 per year | $12,400,000 guaranteed
We'll split the difference to offer the best-value forecast for Russell Okung's new money extension: