The Seahawks have been plenty busy this offseason, locking in QB Russell Wilson, ILB Bobby Wagner, and acquiring TE Jimmy Graham to name a few of the more notable moves. One player who hasn't been attended to is safety Kam Chancellor, who has held himself out of training camp thus far in hopes of receiving a new deal from his current team. To date, Chancellor has missed 9 days, meaning the potential forfeiture of $470,000 in salary and signing bonus.
Chancellor is entering year 2 of a 4 year $28 million extension. His $7M annual average salary ranks 8th among active safeties (Earl Thomas $10M AAV is ranked 1st). Including the upcoming season, his contract contains $16.775M cash to be made over 3 years, an average of just $5.59M per year through 2017. While it's clear WHY Chancellor might be looking for a new deal, the fact of the matter is Seattle hardly ever addresses contracts until they're in the final year of the deal (or expired), and the $5.3M in estimated cap space doesn't leave them with much room to wiggle at the moment.
All this said, we'll assess Kam Chancellor's current value, forecasting what a new deal might look like should the two sides agree to negotiate.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Guaranteed||Age When Signed|
Related: View the list of Top Average Inside Safeties in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Jairus Byrd (12-13, BUF)||13.5||3.33||1.26||.33||63.1|
|Devin McCourty (13-14, NE)||15.5||3.74||1.29||.096||67.45|
|Eric Weddle (09-10, SD)||14.5||5.1||1.03||.137||62.45|
|Earl Thomas (12-13, SEA)||16||3.75||1.625||.25||67.35|
|Kam Chancellor (13-14, SEA)||15||5.33||2.6||.13||69.96|
|MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE:||.84%|
|Average PRIME PErcentage:||18.21%|
Length of the Contract
Safeties have benefited greatly from the league turning even moreso into a passing system, with an increased salary cap. Recent deals for Byrd and McCourty have outdone each other, and there's no reason to believe the next deal won't outdo them. At 27 years old, and with a strong history of durability, it makes sense to align Chancellor with our 5 year average, meaning the non-guaranteed 2016 & 2017 salaries are ripped up, and a 4 year extension is added on to 2015.
Value of the Contract
Chancellor has almost $17M remaining on his current deal over 3 years, but just his $4.55M 2015 salary his fully guaranteed, meaning $12M+ is able to be moved around with an extension (to reduce cap early on). With positive statistical percentages yet to be factored in, we base valued him at more than $8.8M per year (4th among all safeties).
Low Value (HOMETOWN DISCOUNT)
Utilizing our Median Prime Percentage (0.84%), we're forecasting Chancellor as the 4th highest average paid S:
4 years, $35,825,000 | $8,956,250 per year | $21,495,000 guaranteed
High Value (MAX-VALUE DEAL)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (18,21%), we're forecasting as the 1st highest average paid S:
4 years, $42,000,000 | $10,500,000 per year | $25,200,000 guaranteed
We'll split the difference to offer the best-value forecast for Chancellor's next contract: