Through four weeks of the NFL season now, it should come as no surprise that quarterback play across the league is the main focus. The record-breaking starts from Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have their respective cities thinking February, while many more (Philip Rivers, Jake Locker, Jay Cutler) are producing above average starts under the radar. The following table illustrates the 32 starting quarterbacks (on average) through 4 weeks of the NFL season.
Spotrac's True Value Statistic
Our good friends at Pro Football Focus publish weekly cumulative ratings by position, combining unique and relevant stats to determine a statistical production rating. We'll assess the most recent ratings in comparison to the player's 2013 salary cap figure to determine a current and unique "Value Rating" among the current starting quarterbacks. This rating will be used to calculate our True Value Statistic for each player.
The Geekness (Math) Behind the Stat
To calculate our value rating statistic:
- We've found the median of each quarterback's cap figures ($7.65 million).
- From there, we find the percent difference between the player's cap and the median cap.
- We then multiply this percent difference by the average of all our quarterback's PFF statistical ratings (1.296875).
- The result is the PFF Rating the player should be performing at to meet "value".
- Finally we determine the difference between the player's actual PFF rating and his value-based PFF rating to land on our final statistic.
|Player||2013 Cap||Value Rating||True Value|
|Eli Manning (NYG)||$20,850,000||2.24||-2.34|
|Matthew Stafford (DET)||$17,820,000||1.72||4.48|
|Peyton Manning (DEN)||$17,500,000||1.67||17.13|
|Drew Brees (NO)||$17,400,000||1.65||8.25|
|Tom Brady (NE)||$13,800,000||1.04||-1.24|
|Philip Rivers (SD)||$13,776,667||1.04||11.76|
|Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)||$13,595,000||1.01||0.09|
|Sam Bradford (STL)||$12,595,000||0.84||-6.74|
|Michael Vick (PHI)||$12,200,000||0.77||0.73|
|Aaron Rodgers (GB)||$12,000,000||0.74||4.36|
|Tony Romo (DAL)||$11,818,833||0.71||3.69|
|Matt Schaub (HOU)||$10,750,000||0.53||2.07|
|Jay Cutler (CHI)||$10,370,000||0.46||3.04|
|Josh Freeman (TB)||$9,760,000||0.36||-2.56|
|Matt Ryan (ATL)||$9,600,000||0.33||11.67|
|Alex Smith (KC)||$8,500,000||0.14||-0.74|
|Joe Flacco (BAL)||$6,800,000||-0.14||-6.96|
|Cam Newton (CAR)||$6,006,818||-0.28||2.78|
|Andrew Luck (IND)||$5,024,545||-0.45||10.45|
|Robert Griffin III (WAS)||$4,799,795||-0.48||-2.32|
|Carson Palmer (ARI)||$4,000,000||-0.62||4.32|
|Matt Flynn (OAK)||$3,875,000||-0.64||-3.46|
|Matt Cassel (MIN)||$3,700,000||-0.67||-3.03|
|Blaine Gabbert (JAC)||$3,273,176||-0.74||-5.06|
|Ryan Tannehill (MIA)||$2,879,205||-0.81||4.41|
|Jake Locker (TEN)||$3,432,546||-0.71||8.81|
|E.J. Manuel (BUF)||$1,615,509||-1.02||-10.08|
|Andy Dalton (CIN)||$1,422,054||-1.06||-5.54|
|Colin Kaepernick (SF)||$1,397,532||-1.06||-8.34|
|Geno Smith (NYJ)||$912,655||-1.14||-3.96|
|Brian Hoyer (CLE)||$715,000||-1.18||0.88|
|Russell Wilson (SEA)||$681,085||-1.18||1.88|
All ratings were derived from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats Series; an immensely useful, easy to assess, and quickly updated set of unique NFL data. Please take a moment to click around and consider joining if you haven't already.