The Buffalo Bills have been in search of a legitimate starting quarterback since 1996, Jim Kelly's final season. Some believe that search may be over (for now), with the increasingly strong play of Tyrod Taylor this season. After 4 seasons behind Joe Flacco in Baltimore, Taylor was signed with the opportunity to win the starting role out of camp with Buffalo this past offseason.
While the team as a whole is average at best currently, Taylor's production through the air and with his legs has become notable. While he's signed through the 2016 season in Buffalo, he carries just a $1M salary ($1.1M cap hit) next year. Should he finish out the season on a high note, it's likely the two sides will come together to at least discuss the possibility of extending Taylor out a few years, especially to include guaranteed money. We'll assess the current market value of Taylor, albeit a small sample size of statistics, heading into Week 14.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Related: View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|PLAYER||PASS YD||PASS TD||INT||COMP %||FUM||RUSH ATT||RUSH YDS|
|MEDIAN PRIME % CHANGE||1.69%|
|AVERAGE PRIME % CHANGE||-4.6%|
Length of the Contract
At 26 years old, and in his first season with consistent action, it's safe to assume that this deal won't stretch out to a huge length. Our base contract averaged 6 years, but with Taylor already under contract through 2016, it's much more likely that a 4 year extension at best is on the table.
Value of the Contract
A quick glance across the stat charts shows us that Taylor is a statistical match to Russell Wilson leading up to his new contract across 2013-14. The most surprising number for most has been his consistency in the passing game, completing nearly 65% of his passes thus far. Our initial base contract provided an average salary just north of $21M, a figure that would place him 4th among active quarterbacks. When factoring in our Prime Percentages:
Low Value (Hometown Discount)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (-4.64%), we're provided with a fairly average value in terms of overall dollars and annual average:
4 years, $80,107,220 | $20,026,805 per year
High ValueFinal Thoughts & More Likely Outcomes
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (1.69%), we've given a slightly bigger forecast:
4 years, $85,431,140 | $21,357,785 per year
Some may gawk at a market value of this magnitude for a somewhat unproven player, especially on a 6-6 Bills team on the outside of the playoffs looking in (for the 16th straight year). But mathematically speaking the numbers don't lie. Taylor is a Top 5 quarterback in terms of passer rating and least interceptions, Top 10 in terms of completion percentage, and one of the best 4th quarter QBs in all of football.
While a jump from $1M to $20M seems unlikely, this is simply a calculated look at how his inaugural season in Buffalo appears to be playing out. For purposes of risk/reward, it's more likely that the Bills offer a "nibble" extension to Taylor this offseason, possibly to the tune of Nick Foles' 2 year $24.5M deal with St. Louis
Based on the above calculations, our current new-money market value for Tyrod Taylor is: