At just 25 years of age, Seahawks' quarterback Russell Wilson is already on top of the world. The former third round selection in the 2012 draft is the face of his franchise, the toast of his town, and a Super Bowl champion, all in a matter of 2 years. Now five weeks into the 2014 season, Wilson is showing no signs of slowing down, as he and the Seahawks sit tied for 1st in the NFC West at 3-1. The only apparent piece left in his young career's puzzle, is the big contract.
Wilson will become extension-eligible after the 2014 season, a notion that would normally have a franchise on pins and needles. But the character and overall general attitude shown from the young leader has most thinking the process to negotiate a long-term, well-built contract will be swift and painless. There's really little room to argue if you're the Seahawks. Wilson is the complete package, having carried the team with his arm, his legs, his brain, and in the press room as well. He's the ultimate competitor mixed with the ultimate face of the team - a modern day Tom Brady.
With this being said, we've put Wilson through our forecast formula, pressing him up against four variable quarterbacks of similar skill and age to compare his statistical production both in the passing and rushing game over the past two seasons. In terms of Wilson, we'll use his statistics from the 2012 & 2013 season, while also projecting out his current 2014 figures for a full 16 games. The result will be a large, but doable forecast for Russell Wilson's next contract in Seattle.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Guaranteed||Age When Signed|
Related: View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Andy Dalton (2012-13, CIN)||16||3981||298.8||30||318||62.1|
|Alex Smith (2012-13, KC)||12.5||2525||202||18||6||63.5|
|Colin Kaepernick (2012-13, SF)||14.5||2506||172.8||16.5||5.5||59.8|
|Aaron Rodgers (2011-12, GB)||15.5||4469||288.3||42||7||67.6|
|Russell Wilson (2012-14, SEA)||16||3294||205.8||28||7.6||64.4|
|MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE:||3.49%|
|Average PRIME PErcentage:||2.74%|
|Andy Dalton (2012-13, CIN)||54||152||2.81||3|
|Alex Smith (2012-13, KC)||53.5||282||5.27||.5|
|Colin Kaepernick (2012-13, SF)||78||470||6.02||4.5|
|Aaron Rodgers (2011-12, GB)||57||306||5.36||3.5|
|Russell Wilson (2012-14, SEA)||102||621||4.99||3|
|MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE:||36.30%|
|Average PRIME PErcentage:||45.09%|
As expected, Wilson absolutely dominates this comparison. He attempts 40% more rushes, accounting for more than double the yardage with the ball in his hands. While he's fairly inline with our variable quarterbacks in the passing game, he's FAR ahead of them in terms of these statistics
Length of the Contract
At 26 years old, and having already instantiated himself as the long-term franchise quarterback solution in Seattle, it's perfectly likely the the Seahawks will choose to extend Wilson through the year 2021. As most of the recent quarterback extensions are adding 6 new years on, we'll follow suit here.
Value of the Contract
In terms of mathematics, and in the general role of the quarterback position across the league, it doesn't make sense to weigh the passing analysis and the rushing analysis evenly. With that being said, we'll apply our prime pecentages at a 70/30 ratio between the two categories respectively. This means we'll assess Wilson at a + 13.3 Median Prime Percentage, and a +15.45 Average Prime Percentage. Our initial base contract provided an average salary of nearly $18.8M per year, a figure that would place him 7th among active quarterbacks.
The Seahawks have done will in not waiting too long to lock in their prime players, at prime positions. While many feel they reached a bit with Percy Harvin's $64M contract, they're overpaying for a position of need - and in his case a multi-tool weapon. The same should be said for Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas - who quarterback the secondary of the defense. The x-factor heading into the 2015 season will be the contract of Marshawn Lynch. While the bruising back is still producing at a top level, the soon to be 29 year old may be too rich for the cap at $8.5M. While the Seahawks aren't currently in cap trouble for 2015 (40 players allocated to $110M), they may need to get creative to keep the current team intact.
When factoring in and averaging out our two Prime Percentages, we're given the following forecast for Russell Wilson's extension: