One of the more polarizing stories this offseason has been the current and future status of Chargers' quarterback Philip Rivers, whose 6 year $91.8 million contract is set to expire after the 2015 season. Rivers has made it clear that should the Chargers relocate, he does not intend to join them - sparking rumors of trades to a variety of teams. We'll put all that aside and take a look at the current value or Rivers, as one way or another, he'll be in need of a new contract come next year (wherever he may be).
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Guaranteed||Age When Signed|
Related: View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
To derive the most complete set of production comparisons, we'll use Games/Season, QB Rating/Season, Passing Yards/Game, Passing TDs/Season, INT/ Season, and Completion %/Season. To assess how well the player was performing prior to signing their respective contract, we'll show the averages of these statistics two years prior to their signing date. The two-year analysis will give us a "Prime Percentage", showing how well that player was performing when the contract was signed in relation to his overall career.
|Tony Romo (2011-12, DAL)||16||95.8||284||30||14.5||65.9|
|Ben Roethlisberger (2013-14, PIT)||16||97.8||287.9||30||12||65.7|
|Drew Brees (2010-11, NO)||16||100.7||315.5||40||18||69.7|
|Peyton Manning (2009-10, IND)||16||95.5||287.5||33||16.5||67.4|
|Philip Rivers (2013-14, SD)||16||99.5||273.9||32||14||68|
|MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE:||0.17%|
|AVERAGE PRIME PERCENTAGE:||0.61%|
Length of the Contract
Most of the elite quarterbacks are signing contracts that take them through the 38 years of age, meaning a 4-5 year contract for Rivers makes sense. We'll assume 5 based on his durability.
Value of the Contract
Our initial base terms brought forth an average annual salary just over $19.3M per year, a figure that would make him the 6th highest average paid quarterback in football. When factoring in our prime percentages, we're given an overall annual base salary of $19,762,500.
Mathematically speaking, Rivers values at slightly less than $20M per year, leaving him with an annual average salary below Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Drew Brees. It's likely that he's able to negotiate himself closer to $21M per year, just under the $21.85M Big Ben just received from the Steelers. In terms of guaranteed dollars, the sky should be the limit. For purposes of this valuation we've assessed that 47% of his contract should be guaranteed.