Contract Forecast: Greg Hardy

With the 2013 NFL season just around the corner, the Carolina Panthers don't appear to be done getting their current roster's long-term situation in order. Reportedly in talks with their young defensive end Greg Hardy, the Panthers have positioned themselves well for extensions like these, having turned around nearly $28M in cap space in the past calendar year of work.
Hardy comes off an impressive, possibly break out, 2012, ranking #6 on Pro Football Focus' 4-3 Defensive End charts, and having just turned 25 years old, is in position to become a long-term pass rushing fixture in Carolina.
We'll put him through the projection formula to analyze his statistical comparison to a few relevant ends in the league, and produce a forecast for the coming extension.
Player | Length | Value | Avg. Salary | Age When Signed |
---|---|---|---|---|
Carlos Dunlap | 6 | $40,000,000 | $6,666,667 | 24 |
Mario Williams | 6 | $96,000,000 | $16,000,000 | 27 |
Charles Johnson | 6 | $76,000,000 | $12,666,667 | 25 |
Chris Long | 5 | $60,310,000 | $12,062,000 | 27 |
Averages | 5.75 | $68,077,500 | $11,848,833 | 25.3 |
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Defensive Ends in the NFL
Because Hardy (25) is younger/older than some of our variable linemen were at the times of their signings, we'll adjust the above contracts up/down to his age by adding/subtracting from the overall years to make each variable player 25 years old. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
Length | Value | Avg. Salary (slope) |
---|---|---|
6 | $80,441,833 | $ 11,848,833 |
Player | Games | SAcks | Tackles | Solo Stops | Penalties |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carlos Dunlap (2011-12, CIN) | 13 | 5 | 27 | 22 | 2 |
MarIo Williams (2009-10, HOU) | 14.5 | 10.5 | 19.5 | 28 | 3.5 |
Charles Johnson (2009-10, CAR) | 14.5 | 7.75 | 34 | 30.5 | 5 |
Chris Long (2010-11, STL) | 16 | 10.5 | 19 | 25 | 3.5 |
Averages | 13.125 | 7.5 | 24.875 | 26.375 | 3.5 |
Greg Hardy (2011-12, CAR) | 15.5 | 8.5 | 37.5 | 34.5 | 5.5 |
% Difference | 6.9% | 0.74% | 50.75% | 30.81% | -57.14% |
OVERALL PRIME % | 6.41% |
Player | Value | True Guarantees | % Guaranteed |
---|---|---|---|
Carlos Dunlap | $40,000,000 | $11,700,000 | 29.3% |
Mario Williams | $96,000,000 | $24,900,000 | 25.9% |
Charles Jonson | $76,000,000 | $32,000,000 | 42.1% |
Chris Long | $60,310,000 | 23,610,000 | 39.1% |
Adjusted Regression | 34.5% |
Length of the Contract
Young pass rushers are still prime contenders for long-term deals in the modern NFL. The Panthers gave Charlson Johnson a 6 year deal at this age in 2011, so there's no reason to believe Hardy won't get 6 as well.
Value of the Contract
The statistical breakdown of Hardy in comparison to our variable defensive ends may have raised some eyebrows - as he clearly matches up. A big 2012 leaves him in a prime seat to cash in right now, and the Panthers appear to be following suit. Outside of penalities, his numbers add up to a positive prime percentage, and nearly 35% of his deal to be guaranteed.
• Guaranteed: $28,335,373 (34.5%)