The Jacksonville Jaguars have had plenty of names come in and out of their wide receiving core over the past 4 years. But maybe the most stable, and productive is that of Cecil Shorts, who is playing out the final year of his contract this season. Hamstring issues have kept Shorts off the field frequently this year, and may be an imposing factor for the entirety of the season. But when reaching back into his 2012 and 2013 campaigns, we find consistent, improving production from the 26 year-old. We'll assess his current value in Jacksonville, comparing him to other receivers of his age and ability to predict his next contract going forward.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Age When Signed|
Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL
Because Shorts (26) is younger than Wallace, we'll adjust Wallace's contract as if he signed at the age of 26. Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games||REC/G||REC YDs/G||YAC/G||REC TD/YR|
|Mike Wallace (2011-12, PIT)||15.5||4.25||65.45||24.9||8|
|Stevie Johnson (2010-11, BUF)||16||4.93||64.9||23.09||8.5|
|Pierre Garcon (2010-11, IND)||15.5||4.28||55.8||14.93||6|
|Emmanuel Sanders (2012-13, PIT)||16||3.53||42.7||16.2||3.5|
|Cecil Shorts (2012-13, JAC)||13.5||4.48||65||24.18||5|
|AVERAGE PRIME %:||0.79%|
|MEDIAN PRIME %:||5.47%|
|Player||Value||True Guarantees||% Guaranteed|
|Mike Wallace (2011-12, PIT)||$60,000,000||$27,000,000||45.00%|
|Stevie Johnson (2010-11, BUF)||$36,250,000||$11,000,000||30.34%|
|Pierre Garcon (2010-11, IND)||$42,500,000||$13,100,000||30.82%|
|Emmanuel Sanders (2012-13, PIT)||$15,000,000||$6,000,000||40.00%|
Length of the Contract
The average of our variable receiver contracts came out to 4.5 years. With durability issues, we'll round this down to a 4 year contract for Shorts.
Value of the Contract
Shorts' production over the past two seasons may have flown under some radars, as the Jaguars certainly haven't been relevant in the Win/Loss column. It's safe to assume that in a better offense his scoring figures would increase, equaling out the targets and receptions he's been awarded since 2011. A simple eye test of our statistical table above shows a remarkable similarity between Mike Wallace's production heading into his big pay day with the Dolphins, meaning Shorts will likely earn condisideration from many teams should he hit the free agent market this offseason. We'll factor in our minimal Prime Percentages to produce the following forecast: