Back in November of 2013 our premium team compiled a thorough analysis of QB Cam Newton with the expectation that a long-term deal with the Carolina Panthers would be in his cards this offseason. But as quarterbacks around him are being rewarded with major pay days, including sizeable chunks of guaranteed money, continues to wait for this turn - and has marketdly added to his resume while doing so.
As a first round draft pick, the Panthers exercised the 5th-year option for Newton's 2015 season (valued at $14.6M). But Newton's multi-threat skillset combined with an impressive season both statistically and in the win column in 2013 hands Newton a pile of leverage heading into the 2014 season.
To compensate for Newton's total statistical package, we'll revise the protypical statistics used in our quarterbacks analysis to include Rushing Attempts, Rushing Yards per Season, Rishing Yards per Game, and Rushing TDs per season.
We'll assess Newton's statistical performance in 2012-13 and compare them to quarterbacks of similar age and production to determine and forecast a possible extension this offseason.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Guaranteed||Age When Signed|
Related: View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games/YR||Pass YDS/YR||Pass YDs/G||Pass TDs/YR||INT/YR||Comp %/YR|
|Andy Dalton (2012-13, CIN)||16||3981||298.8||30||318||62.1|
|Alex Smith (2012-13, KC)||12.5||2525||202||18||6||63.5|
|Colin Kaepernick (2012-13, SF)||14.5||2506||172.8||16.5||5.5||59.8|
|Aaron Rodgers (2011-12, GB)||15.5||4469||288.3||42||7||67.6|
|Joe Flacco (2011-12, BAL)||16||3714||232.1||21||11||58.6|
|Cam Newton (2012-13, CAR)||16||3624||226.5||22.5||12.5||59.7|
|MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE:||-4.68%|
|Average PRIME PErcentage:||-6.66%|
|Player||RUSH ATT.||RUSH YDS/YR||RUSH YDS/ATT||RUSH TDS/YR|
|Andy Dalton (2012-13, CIN)||54||152||2.81||3|
|Alex Smith (2012-13, KC)||53.5||282||5.27||.5|
|Colin Kaepernick (2012-13, SF)||78||470||6.02||4.5|
|Aaron Rodgers (2011-12, GB)||57||306||5.36||3.5|
|Joe Flacco (2011-12, BAL)||36.5||55||1.5||2|
|Cam Newton (2012-13, CAR)||119||663||4.53||7|
|MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE:||136.26%|
|Average PRIME PErcentage:||110.65%|
Newton absolutely dominates this comparison. He attempts nearly double the rushses, accounting for nearly 3 times the yardage, and touchdowns with the ball in his hands. While he's fairly inline with our variable quarterbacks in the passing game, he's FAR ahead of them in terms of these statistics
Length of the Contract
At 25 years old, and further instantiating himself as the long-term franchise quarterback solution in Carolina, it's perfectly likely the the Panthers will choose to extend Newton through the age of 30. As most of the recent quarterback extensions are adding 6 new years on, we'll follow suit here.
Value of the Contract
In terms of mathematics, and in the general role of the quarterback position across the league, it doesn't make sense to weigh the passing analysis and the rushing analysis evenly. With that being said, we'll apply our prime pecentages at a 70/30 ratio between the two categories respectively. This means we'll assess Cam at a + 36.9 Median Prime Percentage, and a +27.235 Average Prime Percantage. Our initial base contract provided an average salary of more than $18.8M per year, a figure that would place him 7th among active quarterbacks. When factoring this with our Prime Figures:
Low Value (Hometown Discount)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (27.235%), we're provided with a fairly modest value in terms of overall dollars and annual average:
6 years, $143,600,000 | $23,933,333 per year | $66,0056,000 guaranteed
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (51%), we're provided with the largest contract in NFL cornerback history in terms of overall dollars and annual average:
6 years, $154,000,000 | $25,666,666 per year | $70,800,000 guaranteed
The Panthers know they're playing with fire by next extending Newton this offseason (see Flacco, Baltimore, $120.6M). With that being said, a $14.6M 5th year option for 2015 looks like a steal after the numbers we've formulated in this analysis. With team salary caps expected to rise more in 2015 and 2016, a $24M per year quarterbacks certainly isn't out of the question - even if right now it seems ridiculous. With players like Greg Hardy (2015) and Luke Kuechly (2016) in need of contracts sooner than later, the front office in Carolina certainly has a tough decision to make with their franchise quarterback going forward. Should they attempt to wait things out until the 2016 offseason, a holdout next season might be in the cards.