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Contract Forecast: Rajon Rondo

Contract Forecast: Rajon Rondo
Untitled Document

Contract Forecast: Rajon Rondo

The recent conversations that have come out of Boston and many media outlets is whether or not Rajon Rondo should be traded at the deadline or signed to an extension as a franchise rebuilding focal point. The most recent report that has come out is that Danny Ainge has sent an extension offer to Rondo and his camp; however, they turned that offer down. The question that comes up is what type of extension will Rondo be seeking? There is no doubt Rondo is probably going to be seeking 5-year maximum extension, which is probably not what the Celtics had just offered to him.

Based on previously signed point guard contracts and a comparison of Rondo's statistics with those point guards, we'll look to see whether or not Rondo is currently worth a 5-year maximum extension.

First, we need to know what a maximum extension would look like. However, maximum salaries are based on a percentage of the cap. Rondo will have had 9 years experience at the end of the 2014-2015 season, which would qualify him for 30% of cap. Because the 2014-2015, nor the 2015-2016 cap figures have been determined we will project what a 5-year maximum contract could potentially look like. There was a 5.8% increase from the 2011-2012 season to 2012-2013 season and there was a 0.24% increase from the 2012-2013 season to 2013-2014 season, so we will take the average of those two increases and assume the next two seasons will increase the maximum Year 1 salary by 3

Related: Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ

Year Amount
2015 $17,445,343
2016 $18,753,744
2017 $20,062,144
2018 $21,370,545
2019 $22,678,946

Therefore, a 5-year maximum extension for 30% of cap would be around $100.3 million.

Comparable Point Guards
To generate a prediction the Spotrac team determined that the following point guards were viable targets to use in comparing with Rondo. The key was to locate players with recently signed maximum extensions. Here's a look at the contracts signed by each. To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract breakdown listed below.
Player Length Value Avg. Salary Signed as
Chris Paul 5 $107,343,478 $21,468,696 Veteran Maximum Extension (5 years @ 7.5% raise) - 30% of cap1
Deron Williams 5 $98,772,325 $19,754,465 Veteran Maximum Extension (5 years @ 7.5% raise) - 30% of cap1
Derrick Rose 5 $94,314,380 $18,862,876 Rookie Maximum Extension (5 years @ 7.5% raise) - 30% of cap2
Russell Westbrook 5 $78,595,310 $15,719,062 Rookie Maximum Extension (5 years @ 7.5% raise) - 25% of cap
Tony Parker 4 $50,000,000 $12,500,000  
John Wall* 5 $80,000,000 $16,000,000 Rookie Maximum Extension (5 years @ 7.5% raise) - 25% of cap
Averages 4.83 $84,837,582 $17,384,183  

1 Year 1 salary was based on 105% of last year of previous contract, which resulted is larger amount than defined maximum salary.

2 Year 1 salary was based defined maximum salary, however, received 30% of cap designation due to the "Derrick Rose Rule."

* John Wall's contract terms are estimated due to 2014-2015 cap having not been defined.

View the list of Top Average Paid Points Guards in the NBA

Length Value Avg. Salary (slope)
5 $94,756,373 $18,951,275
Statistical Analyzations
Now let's analyze these players statistically over their careers by showing the averages for Mintes/Game, Field Goal %, 3-Point %, Free Throw %, Assists/Game, Steals/Game, Turnovers/Game, and Points/Game.

Then, to assess how well the player was performing prior to signing their respective contract, we'll show the averages of these statistics two years prior to their signing date. This will give us a "Prime Percentage" for each player, providing us with a snapshot for how well that player was performing when the contract was signed in relation to his overall career.
Player MIN/G FG% 3pt% FT% AST/G STL/G TO/G Pt/G
Chris Paul
(11-12/12-13, LAC)
34.74 0.479 0.348 0.874 9.39 2.47 2.18 18.27
Deron Williams
(10-11/11-12, UTH/NJ)
37.2 0.423 0.334 0.844 9.57 1.22 3.74 20.53
Derrick Rose
(10-11/11-12, CHI)
36.68 0.442 0.326 0.844 7.75 1 3.31 23.98
Russell Westbrook
(10-11/11-12, OKC)
34.99 0.449 0.321 0.834 6.97 1.8 3.75 22.64
Tony Parker
(09-10/10-11, SAS)
33.25 0.506 0.337 0.763 6.48 0.93 2.73 17.67
John Wall
(11-12/12-13, WAS)
34.7 0.431 0.172 0.795 7.9 1.4 3.6 17.2
Averages 35.26 0.46 0.31 0.83 8.01 1.47 3.22 20.05
Rajon Rondo 37.14 0.464 0.239 0.613 11.43 1.81 3.75 12.66
% Difference 5.34% 1.98% -21.98% -25.76% 42.66% 23.35% -16.47% -36.86%

It is obvious where Rondo's offensive performance is lacking - 3-point%, Free Throw %, and Points/Game. Moreover, Rondo turns the ball over 19% more than the other comparible point guards. However, Rondo is much more of a facilitator having outperformed the comparible point guards substantially in Assists/Game. Furthermore, even with Rondo's kneee injury he has played more on average in minutes/game.

To determine the value for Rondo, we'll split the difference between the median and average prime (-5.36%).


Length of the Contract
Rondo's performance dictates that he indeed deserves another 5 year contract from Boston, especially if Boston is set on that Rondo is going to be the backbone of their rebuilding efforts.

Value of the Contract
Rondo's overall performance and Prime Percentage does not necessarily dictate that he should receive an estimated maximum extension of $100.3 million.

Spotrac's Prediction: 5 years, $89,639,529

Average Salary: $17,927,906

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