In just a few short weeks, Russell Wilson will finally become eligible for a greatly-earned contract extension. Arguably no other player currently active in the league is more deserving of a pay raise, and the Seahawks seems inclined to financially appease their franchise QB.
We'll re-address a forecast compiled earlier this year, putting Wilson through our projection formula, pressing him up against four variable quarterbacks of similar skill and age to compare his statistical production both in the passing and rushing game over the past two seasons. In terms of Wilson, we'll use statistics from the 2012 & 2013 season, while also projecting out his current 2014 figures for a full 16 games. The result will be a large, but doable forecast for Russell Wilson's next contract in Seattle.
- To date, Russell Wilson has earned approximately $2.2M in his 3 NFL seasons. 496 NFL players (37 QBs) are earning more than that this year alone.
- Wilson is earning $662,434 in 2014 cash for his efforts. 15 QBs are earning more than that per WEEK this season.
- 33 Seattle Seahawks are earning morning in 2014 than their starting QB.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Guaranteed||Age When Signed|
Related: View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Andy Dalton (2012-13, CIN)||16||3981||298.8||30||318||62.1|
|Alex Smith (2012-13, KC)||12.5||2525||202||18||6||63.5|
|Colin Kaepernick (2012-13, SF)||14.5||2506||172.8||16.5||5.5||59.8|
|Aaron Rodgers (2011-12, GB)||15.5||4469||288.3||42||7||67.6|
|Russell Wilson (2012-14, SEA)||16||3274||204.6||23||8||63.1|
|MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE:||-1.55%|
|Average PRIME PErcentage:||-1.65%|
|Andy Dalton (2012-13, CIN)||54||152||2.81||3|
|Alex Smith (2012-13, KC)||53.5||282||5.27||.5|
|Colin Kaepernick (2012-13, SF)||78||470||6.02||4.5|
|Aaron Rodgers (2011-12, GB)||57||306||5.36||3.5|
|Russell Wilson (2012-14, SEA)||108||687.5||6.25||5|
|MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE:||54.29%|
|Average PRIME PErcentage:||66.05%|
As expected, Wilson absolutely dominates this comparison. He attempts 40% more rushes, accounting for more than double the yardage with the ball in his hands. While he's fairly inline with our variable quarterbacks in the passing game, he's FAR ahead of them in terms of these statistics. Furthermore he's been asked to use his legs far more in 2014 than in previous years.
Length of the Contract
At 26 years old, and having already instantiated himself as the long-term franchise quarterback solution in Seattle, it's perfectly likely the the Seahawks will choose to extend Wilson through the year 2021. As most of the recent quarterback extensions are adding 6 new years on, we'll follow suit here.
Value of the Contract
In terms of mathematics, and in the general role of the quarterback position across the league, it doesn't make sense to weigh the passing analysis and the rushing analysis evenly. With that being said, we'll apply our prime pecentages at a 70/30 ratio between the two categories respectively. This means we'll assess Wilson at a + 16.29 Median Prime Percentage, and a +19.80 Average Prime Percentage. Our initial base contract provided an average salary of nearly $18.8M per year, a figure that would place him 7th among active quarterbacks.
As far as contract extensions go, this one should be a no-brainer. The Seahawks struck gold when drafting Wilson when they did, and they've been getting maximum value from it for almost 3 complete seasons now. The time to reward the face of their franchise is now, and there's really no questioning that notion.
Financially speaking, the Seahawks currently have $105.6M allocated to their 2015 salary cap (estimated to be $138.6M in total based on league projections). While they have a few notable free agents to resign or replace this offseason, they appear to be in great shape to structure a deal that pays Wilson a handsome amount of upfront cash over the next three seasons (the name of the game).
When factoring in and averaging out our two Prime Percentages, we're given the following forecast for Russell Wilson's extension: