Predicting 2020 NFL 1st Rounder Extensions
As offseason workouts turn into minicamps for most NFL teams, the conversations financially speaking often turn to extending from within this time of year. We'll take a look at the status, calculated value, and our prediction for each of the 2019 first round picks who are now extension eligible for the first time in their careers.
Disclaimer: For practical purposes, when referencing the current top AAV & Guarantee figures for Quarterbacks & Interior Defensive Linemen, we've excluded Deshaun Watson (*) and Aaron Donald (**) for this exercise.
#1 Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals)
Burrow has done everything he’s been asked to do and then some, including doubling his production as a scrambling/running QB last season.
Calculated Valuation: $53.7M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $52M (L. Jackson)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $185M (L. Jackson)*
Prediction: Burrow signs a 6 year, $315M extension (8 years, $350M total), including $200M practically guaranteed.
#2 Chase Young (DE, Commanders)
The Commanders recently declined a $17.45M 5th-year option for Young, making 2023 a contract year for the 24-year-old. He’s seen action in just 12 games over the past two seasons, but a healthy, productive year can certainly change things quickly
Calculated Valuation: $17.8M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $28M (T. Watt)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $102M (J. Bosa)
Prediction: No extension. Young’s injury history makes an early extension unlikely, but a clean 2023 leads to a franchise tag next February with options to build on from there.
#3 Jeff Okudah (CB, Falcons)
The Lions traded Okudah to Atlanta this spring, after his healthiest and most productive season to date. There’s a world where he hits the ground running for the Falcons, and with free agency in front of him next March, it would be the perfect time for it.
Calculated Valuation: $14.7M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.1M (D. Ward)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $71.25M (D. Ward)
Prediction: No extension. We’re a long way from a multi-year guarantee offer here, but a young and hungry Falcons’ team could be exactly what the doctor ordered to reinvigorate Okudah’s career.
#4 Andrew Thomas (LT, Giants)
The #3 graded offensive tackle for 2022 according to PFF becomes extension eligible at the perfect time. A much improved team, a QB1 with a new contract, and three straight years of exponential improvement on the books.
Calculated Valuation: $21.4M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $25M (L. Tunsil)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $64M (R. Stanley)
Prediction: Back up the brinks truck. The Giants don’t necessarily have to rush this, as Thomas’ final two rookie contract years currently align with Daniel Jones’ practical guarantees, but locking in a franchise left tackle for the foreseeable future is never bad business. Thomas signs a 4 year, $88M extension ($107M over 6 years) that includes $60M practically guaranteed.
#5 Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Dolphins)
So much focus (rightfully so) has been placed on Tua’s head injury history, but the production he accumulated on the field in 13 games last season (25 TD, 8 INT, 105 Passer Rating) would have warranted a serious conversation about a multi-year extension. It seems logical that Miami will want to see a full, healthy year before they pull that trigger though.
Calculated Valuation: $45M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $52M (L. Jackson)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $185M (L. Jackson)*
Prediction: No extension (yet). Tua plays out 2023, with a fully guaranteed $23.1M already on the books for 2024, giving Miami time.
#6 Justin Herbert (QB, Chargers)
It’s easy to look at Herbert’s 3-year stat lines and notice a decline in 2022 production. But an elbow injury thwarted his ability to operate as the deadly deep ball passer that he is for much of last season, forcing a shorter, more efficient gameplan. There’s zero reason to wait on this contract (unless you’re waiting for Burrow’s numbers to hit first from Herbert’s standpoint).
Calculated Valuation: $50.8M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $52M (L. Jackson)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $185M (L. Jackson)*
Prediction: Herbert locks in a 4 year, $210M extension, including a non-Deshaun record $140M fully guaranteed at signing.
#7 Derrick Brown (DT, Panthers)
Brown really took a big step forward in 2022, especially as it pertains to the run-stuffing game. He’s only amassed 6 sacks in 3 seasons, but he’s developed into a Top 10 interior defensive lineman regardless.
Calculated Valuation: $17.5M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $23.5M (J. Simmons)**
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (C. Jones/D. Lawrence)**
Prediction: No extension (yet). Brown is on his way, and the defensive tackle market has taken off this spring. But the Panthers are close to turning a corner here, and should be in evaluation mode more than extending mode for the next few months. It’s not hard to imagine $50M guaranteed in Browns’ next calendar year though.
#8 Isaiah Simmons (LB/CB, Cardinals)
Arizona declined Simmons’ $12.7M 5th-year option for 2024, making this upcoming season a contract year for the 24-year-old. He’s a fill up the stat line type player that might have just been drafted into the wrong defense at the wrong time.
Calculated Valuation: $16.5M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20M (R. Smith)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (R. Smith)
Prediction: Simmons is traded in the coming weeks, further establishing a massive rebuild on the fly in Arizona.
#9 C.J. Henderson (CB, Panthers)
The Jags traded Henderson to Carolina after just 1, injury-filled season. While he’s shown improvement, he’s nowhere near the level of player Jacksonville thought they were getting at #9.
Calculated Valuation: $8.4M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.1M (D. Ward)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $71.25M (D. Ward)
Prediction: No extension. Henderson will play out his 1 year, $3.4M contract and walk into free agency next March.
#10 Jedrick Wills (LT, Browns)
The Browns exercised Wills’ $14.1M 5th-year option for 2024 last month, putting him on track to negotiate an extension over the next calendar year. While he hasn’t risen to elite blindside tackle status, he seems a worthy candidate to stick around for Deshaun Watson’s tenure.
Calculated Valuation: $19M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $25M (L. Tunsil)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $64M (R. Stanley)
Prediction: No extension (yet). The Browns are still trying to fill out their 2023 roster, so adding cap to Year 4 of this rookie deal makes little sense right now. Extending out of his $14M salary next March seems the right approach.
#11 Mekhi Becton (RT, Jets)
After back to back injury-filled seasons, the Jets declined Becton’s $13.5M option for 2024, making this upcoming season a contract year for the 24 year old. He’ll have a chance to secure his role at right tackle in front of Aaron Rodgers.
Calculated Valuation: $12.9M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.1M (L. Johnson)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60.2M (R. Ramczyk)
Prediction: No extension. Right tackles have done extremely well on the open market the past few offseasons, so Becton’s financial career is far from toast, provided he can stay on the field in 2023.
#12 Henry Ruggs (WR, Raiders)
Not active.
#13 Tristan Wirfs (OT, Buccaneers)
After 3 seasons of elite right tackle play, the Bucs will flip Wirfs to the blindside this season, further enhancing his next contract value (assuming he can sustain his level of play on the opposite side of the line).
Calculated Valuation: $24.7M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $25M (L. Tunsil)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $64M (R. Stanley)
Prediction: Historic. Wirfs signs a 4 year, $102M extension, including $66M practically guaranteed.
#14 Javon Kinlaw (DT, 49ers)
San Francisco declined Kinlaw’s $10.4M option for 2024, making this upcoming season a contract year for the 25 year old. Javon Hargrave’s splashy free agent signing seems to have written the writing on the wall here.
Calculated Valuation: $5.4M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $23.5M (J. Simmons)**
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (C. Jones/D. Lawrence)**
Prediction: No extension. Kinlaw finds a 2-3 year deal around $7M per year on the open market next season to reestablish himself elsewhere.
#15 Jerry Jeudy (WR, Broncos)
Denver exercised a $12.9M extension for 2024, affording them time to further assess their offense (most notably their QB1). With Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick both under multi-year extensions already, it might be difficult to justify a long-term deal for Jeudy right now, but he just finished his most productive season to date, and could be in for even bigger numbers this upcoming year.
Calculated Valuation: $20.1M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $30M (T. Hill)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $75M (C. Kupp)
Prediction: The Broncos sign Jeudy to a 4 year, $88M extension, including $50M practically guaranteed.
#16 A.J. Terrell (CB, Falcons)
Atlanta exercised Terrell’s $12.3M option for 2024, putting him fully guaranteed at nearly $15M over the next two seasons. He was one of the best coverage defenders in all of football for the 2021 season, but fell back down to earth a bit last year. Atlanta has invested heavily on the defensive side of the ball this spring, and Terrell might bank on that (literally) next March.
Calculated Valuation: $20M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.1M (D. Ward)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $71.25M (D. Ward)
Prediction. Not yet. Atlanta needs to see what they have in a lot of areas before committing too much down the line. A lot of smart people believe the Falcons young core will come together quickly, which should mean $50M+ guaranteed for Terrell in the next calendar year.
#17 CeeDee Lamb (WR, Cowboys)
Dallas has their eyes on new deals for CB Diggs, QB Prescott, T Steele, & of course Lamb, who unsurprisingly had a career year in 2022 after Amari Cooper was shipped to Cleveland. It’s not a matter of if here, only when.
Calculated Valuation: $22.5M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $30M (T. Hill)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $75M (C. Kupp)
Prediction: The Cowboys lock in Lamb to a 4 year, $105M extension, including $63M practically guaranteed - making him the highest average paid and guaranteed rookie extended WR in history.
#18 Austin Jackson (RT, Dolphins)
Miami declined Jackson’s $14.1M option for 2024, making this a contract year for the 24 year old. He still projects as the Week 1 starting right tackle for the Dolphins, but added depth on the roster could change that quickly.
Calculated Valuation: $10.6M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.1M (L. Johnson)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60.2M (R. Ramczyk)
Prediction: No extension. Miami’s in win-now mode, and they’ll be allocating resources all over the roster to remain that way for as long as possible. Jackson should hit the open market next March.
#19 Damon Arnette (CB)
Not active.
#20 K’Lavon Chaisson (EDGE, Jaguars)
Jacksonville declined a $12.1M option for 2024, and Chaisson’s role has been reduced in each of the past two seasons.
Calculated Valuation: $3M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $28M (T. Watt)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $102M (J. Bosa)
Prediction: Chaisson is traded prior to training camp, as Jacksonville looks to free up a little cap/cash for a few monster deals waiting for them next March.
#21 Jalen Reagor (WR, Vikings)
The Vikings acquired Reagor from Philly last August, but declined his $12.9M option for 2024 after just 8 catches and 4 fumbles last season.
Calculated Valuation: $4.6M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $30M (T. Hill)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $75M (C. Kupp)
Prediction: No extension. Reagor will play out his fully guaranteed $2.4M salary, and may be a trade deadline candidate come Halloween.
#22 Justin Jefferson (WR, Vikings)
Kirk Cousins is on an expiring contract, Dalvin Cook may be off the roster by the team you read this, and yet the Vikings’ chance in the NFC North is as good as it’s ever been with Aaron Rodgers out the door. Somebody’s going to give Justin Jefferson an historic contract, but that team might not be Minnesota?
Calculated Valuation: $26.7M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $30M (T. Hill)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $75M (C. Kupp)
Prediction: Kirk Cousins & Justin Jefferson both sign extensions this summer, refortifying the Vikings as annual contenders in the NFC North. In Jefferson’s case, a 4 year, $110M contract with $75M practically guaranteed should get it done.
#23 Kenneth Murray (LB, Chargers)
LA declined Murray’s $11.7M option for 2024, making this upcoming season a contract year, and putting his future with the Chargers very much in question.
Calculated Valuation: $4.3M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20M (R. Smith)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (R. Smith)
Prediction: No extension. Murray has a solid 2023 in the middle of a good Chargers defense, and hits the open market looking to establish his value with a T.J. Edwards type deal (3 years, $20M).
#24 Cesar Ruiz (C/G, Saints)
The #24 overall pick never really found his footing through three seasons, despite playing almost every offensive snap over the course of the past two years. He projects to be the Week 1 starting right Guard, so there’s time to build up value as free agency nears.
Calculated Valuation: $10M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.5M (C. Lindstrom)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (Q. Nelson)
Prediction: No extension. The Saints are hoping 2023 4th rounder Nick Saldiveri can slot into this role next season.
#25 Brandon Aiyuk (WR, 49ers)
Aiyuk’s career has been steadily above average, culminating with a career season in 2022 (78 grabs, 1,015 yards, 8 TDs). San Francisco likely makes him get there again before seriously considering a long-term extension.
Calculated Valuation: $18M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $30M (T. Hill)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $75M (C. Kupp)
Prediction: No extension (yet). The 49ers have already fed a lot of mouths, and Nick Bosa’s extension remains a priority this summer. Aiyuk can force this conversation next February with another big year.
#26 Jordan Love (QB, Packers)
Technically he’s already been extended, though the 2 year, $15.8M contract currently on the books in Green Bay actually represents a $6.7M loss of base value from his previous 2023 salary + potential option. For all intents and purposes, this is still a showcase season for Love, with a true multi-year extension negotiation waiting for him in March if he answers the bell.
Calculated Valuation: TBD
Current Position Max AAV: $52M (L. Jackson)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $185M (L. Jackson)*
Prediction: With the restructure in place, we’ll reserve our prediction for after 2023.
#27 Jordyn Brooks (LB, Seahawks)
Seattle declined Brooks’ $12.7M option for 2024, making this a contract year for the 25 year old. He’s a tackle machine, but is currently recovering from a torn ACL, with a timetable to return still unknown. There’s still a very real world where Brooks fully recovers, and is offered a bigtime contract next March.
Calculated Valuation: $13.8M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20M (R. Smith)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (R. Smith)
Prediction: No Extension. Seattle needs to wait out this ACL rehab before considering a long-term future, but Fred Warner’s $19M could be in the cards down the line here.
#28 Patrick Queen (LB, Ravens)
The Ravens declined Queen’s $12.7M option for 2024, but are also publicly stating their hopes of extended the 23 year old. In other words, “we already have this other guy (Roquan Smith), so if you’ll stick around for much less money, we’ll definitely pay you”.
Calculated Valuation: $16.9M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20M (R. Smith)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (R. Smith)
Prediction: Queen sticks around for 2023, but walks into free agency hoping to follow in Tremaine Edmunds’ footsteps. (4 years, $72M, $50M guaranteed).
#29 Isaiah Wilson (T)
Not active.
#30 Noah Igbinoghene (CB, Dolphins)
The Dolphins declined Igbinoghene’s $13.2M 5th-year option, and are poised to run him out fairly deep down the depth chart in 2023. At $2.1M guaranteed, he’s likely worth keeping around, but don’t be surprised if a late round pick trade is processed sometime this summer.
Calculated Valuation: $3.8M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.1M (D. Ward)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $71.25M (D. Ward)
Prediction: No extension, fringe trade candidate this summer.
#31 Jeff Gladney (CB)
Deceased.
#32 Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, Chiefs)
It was a swing and a miss. It happens. Kansas City declined CEH’s $5.4M option for 2024, putting him on a 1 year, $2M guaranteed contract through the end of the upcoming season. There are two teams currently heading into the summer with starting running backs operating under unsigned franchise tags (Raiders, Giants). With either of them offer a late rounder to bring in CEH as insurance?
Calculated Valuation: $3.9M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $16M (C. McCaffrey)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $38.1M (C. McCaffrey)
Prediction: No extension, no trade, CEH is a healthy scratch for half of 2023 and walks into free agency next March.
