Starting QB Future Contract Outlooks

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertAugust 27, 2024
© USA TODAY Sports

With Week 1 of the 2024 regular season nearly upon us, it’s a good time to take one last offseason look at the practical contract outlook for every starting QB based on guarantee structure.

Kyler Murray (ARI)

4 years, $150M

Murray’s impressive contract contains early vesting guarantees through 2027. With that said - if Murray can right the ship with a few new weapons, his payouts of $39M, $32M, $42M, & $36M over the next 4 years should hold value in their respective cap climates.

Kirk Cousins (ATL)

2 years, $100M

The guarantee figure consists of Cousins’ 2024 salary, 2025 salary, & $10M of his 2026 compensation, which becomes fully guaranteed next March.

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

3 years, $127M

After an $80M payout in 2023, Lamar’s 2024 cash drops to $31.75M (16th among QBs). Still, he’s well compensated through 2026, with a chance to re-up again before he turns 30.

Josh Allen (BUF)

2 years, $69.5M

The Bills have Allen under contract through the 2028 season, but the early-vesting guarantees fall off after 2025. We detailed a few thoughts on how this scenario may play out in the not so far away future.

Bryce Young (CAR)

3 years, $12.6M

The Panthers have Young fully guaranteed through 2026, with a 5th-year option in place for 2027. He becomes extension-eligible for the first time after 2025.

Caleb Williams (CHI)

4 years, $39M

The Bears have Williams fully guaranteed through 2027, with a 5th-year option in place for 2028. He becomes extension-eligible for the first time after 2026.

Joe Burrow (CIN)

4 years, $173M

Burrow will reel in over $65M cash in 2024 & has already banked over $111M on his new deal. The contract carries early vesting salary/bonuses through 2027, with the final 2 years (2028-2029) built in a pay-as-you-go structure.

Deshaun Watson (CLE)

3 years, $138M

2024 represents Year 3 of Watson’s fully guaranteed 5 year contract, and for now - the outlook remains grim. Cleveland appears poised to carry his full $63.7M cap figure this season to mitigate future cap costs.

Dak Prescott (DAL)

N/A

Prescott’s $29M salary for 2024 will become fully guaranteed next week, but for now - he’s operating on a non-guaranteed expiring contract. The clock is ticking toward March 12th.

Bo Nix (DEN)

4 years, $18M

The Broncos have Nix fully guaranteed through 2027, with a 5th-year option in place for 2028. He becomes extension-eligible for the first time after 2026.

Jared Goff (DET)

4 years, $193M

The Lions took care of Goff to the tune of $80.6M cash in 2024, your standard $54M raise. He’s practically guaranteed through his age-33 season now, with a chance to re-up one last time if the wheels are still churning.

Jordan Love (GB)

3 years, $163M

Love’s zero to 100 career as a starter culminated with a $160M practical guarantee from the Packers this summer. He’ll earn $79M for the upcoming season, $143M through 2026, with a $20M early guarantee hanging out in 2027 for Green Bay to deal with as needed.

C.J. Stroud (HOU)

3 years, $12M

Stroud’s rookie contract is fully guaranteed through 2026, with a 5th-year option available in 2027. Houston is promised at least two more seasons of financial value on this deal, before he becomes extension-eligible after the 2025 campaign.

Anthony Richardson (IND)

3 years, $11.5M

Richardson’s rookie contract is fully guaranteed through 2026, with a 5th-year option available in 2027. He won’t become extension-eligible until after the 2025 season.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

5 years, $202M

Jacksonville wasted no time locking in their QB1 during his first eligible offseason. The signing bonus plus 4 option bonus structure keeps him well compensated while tempering the salary cap hits through 2028.

Patrick Mahomes (KC)

4 years, $205.4M

In totality, Mahomes’ contract contains early vesting guarantees all the way through the finish line (8 years, $361.45M). However, last summer’s restructure set things up to operate through the 2027 season, with a pretty clear cut do-over forthcoming, assuming Mahomes is still Mahomes.

Justin Herbert (LAC)

5 years, $228.6M

Herbert’s deal contains significant early guarantees through the 2028 season, making it one of the stronger contracts currently on the books. With an overhaul of the coaching staff and weapon-room now in place, it’s a big year for Herbert to show he can stay above the fray as an elite QB1.

Matthew Stafford (LAR)

1 year, $40M

The Rams sweetened Stafford’s 2024 pot a bit with a $5M cash advance ($36M total in 2024), and an early guarantee on his $4M 2025 roster bonus. It did little to secure his roster spot in 2025 from a financial standpoint, but he can certainly do that on the field this upcoming season.

Gardner Minshew (LV)

1 year, $15.6M

The Raiders signed Minshew away from the Colts with a $15M guarantee, including $3.1M of his 2025 salary. The Week 1 starter has a chance to win this job long-term, which would almost certainly come with a brand new, much more expensive, contract next spring.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

3 years, $152M

Tua’s new deal secures him an extra $20M for 2024 ($43.125M total), and nearly $150M through the 2026 season. Miami can buy him out thereafter at just a $3M cash cost.

Sam Darnold (MIN)

1 year, $10M

McCarthy’s injury becomes yet another chance for Darnold to spotlight himself as a starting NFL QB. He’s had (much) worse weapon sets to work with.

Drake Maye (NE)

4 years, $36M

We’re just going to assume Maye over Brissett here. The Patriots have Maye fully guaranteed through 2027, with a 5th-year option in place for 2028. He becomes extension-eligible for the first time after 2026.

Derek Carr (NO)

1 year, $40M

The $40M guarantee consists of Carr’s $30M 2024 salary, and a $10M roster bonus in 2025. If the wheels fall off this season, that $10M bonus likely becomes a buyout payment, though it’ll factor into a dead cap hit north of $50M for New Orleans.

Daniel Jones (NYG)

1 year, $36M

Jones’ contract was always going to be a 2 year, $82M and then we’ll see, situation. If he can right the ship in 2024, a $30.5M cash salary in 2025 could be considered value for the Giants, but for now this is a big if.

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)

1 year, $38M

Rodgers is operating year-to-year in NY, and there’s another $37.5M available for him in 2025 if he and the Jets want things to continue.

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

4 years, $184M

Year 2 of Hurts’ extension comes with a $40M paycheck, and the early vesting guarantees on the deal run through 2027.

Justin Fields (PIT)

1 year, $3.2M

Pittsburgh declined a $25.6M option for 2025, giving them a 1 year look at the former #11 overall pick. Even if he’s not named a QB1 out of the gate, it seems highly likely that the offense will contain certain packages built just for his skill set.

Russell Wilson (PIT)

N/A

Wilson’s veteran minimum salary ($1.21M) won’t fully guarantee until Week 1 but it’s locked in for practical purposes. Denver will be on the hook for $39M minus whatever Wilson accrues elsewhere in 2024.

Geno Smith (SEA)

1 year, $22.5M

Smith’s contract was a year-to-year structure out of the gate, so it’s on Seattle to ensure his compensation every February. They’ve done so for 2024 at $22.5M, but it stands to reason that if he remains the option going forward, an extension will be needed come next year ($25M remaining).

Brock Purdy (SF)

N/A

Purdy’s rookie contract has 2 years, $2M remaining through 2025. However, you may have heard, the former #262 overall pick becomes extension-eligible after 2024. He may potentially earn the single biggest raise in NFL history from his current $1.1M salary in 2025.

Baker Mayfield (TB)

1 year, $40M

Mayfield’s upfront security consists of $30M cash in 2024 plus a $10M guarantee on his 2025 compensation. The latter could very well be treated as a buy out if the Buccaneers decide to go in a different direction. But if not, a 2 year, $60M deal could hold value for Tampa Bay.

Will Levis (TEN)

3 years, $4M

Levis’ rookie deal contains full guarantees through 2024, 2025 & 62% of his 2026 salary, the final year of his contract. He’ll be eligible for an extension after the 2025 season.

Jayden Daniels (WSH)

4 years, $37M

The Commanders have Daniels fully guaranteed through 2027, with a 5th-year option in place for 2028. He becomes extension-eligible for the first time after 2026.

 


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