Projecting 2025 5th-Year Option Salaries

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertJanuary 04, 2024
© USA TODAY Sports

The NFL announced Pro Bowl rosters for the 2023 season, including 9 49ers, 7 Cowboys, 7 Ravens, 6 Eagles, & 6 Dolphins. The list also consists of a few notable pending free agents in WR Mike Evans (TB), ILB Patrick Queen (BAL), RBs Derrick Henry (TEN) & D’Andre Swift (PHI), DTs Chris Jones (KC) & Justin Madubuike (BAL), EDGEs Josh Allen (JAX) & Danielle Hunter (MIN), & CB Jaylon Johnson (CHI).

Since the ratification of the 2020 CBA, NFL 1st Rounder 5th-Year option values have been tied to Pro Bowl selections, so now is the perfect time to dive into the 2021 class. We'll take a run down the entire first round, making note of the player's status in terms of 3-year playing time (see below), any (initial) Pro Bowl selections, & a loose estimate on their 2025 option salary value. All 5th-year options must be decided on by May 2nd, 2024. Per this latest CBA, the salary becomes fully guaranteed as soon as it's exercised.

  • TIER 1: A player is selected to two or more Pro Bowls. The 5th-Year Option price is the same as the franchise tag salary at their position from the previous year.
  • TIER 2: A player is selected to one Pro Bowl. The 5th-Year Option price is the same amount as the transition tag salary from the previous year.
  • TIER 3: A player takes 75% of the team’s offensive or defensive snaps in 2 of their first 3 seasons, OR 50% of the snaps played in each of the 3 seasons, OR a 75% average over all three seasons. The 5th-Year Option price is the 5-year average of the 3rd-20th highest paid players at their position.
  • TIER 4: A player does not meet any of the above criteria. The 5th-Year Option price is the 5-year average of the 3rd-25th highest paid players at their position.
PICK TEAM PLAYER POS PLAYING TIME PRO BOWLS ESTIMATED
5TH-YEAR
1 JAC Trevor Lawrence QB Pass 0 $20,000,000
2 NYJ Zach Wilson QB Fail 0 $18,500,000
3 SF Trey Lance QB Fail 0 $18,500,000
4 ATL Kyle Pitts TE Fail 1 $10,400,000
5 CIN Ja'Marr Chase WR Pass 3 $20,700,000
6 MIA Jaylen Waddle WR Pass 0 $17,014,000
7 DET Penei Sewell RT Pass 2 $19,900,000
8 CAR Jaycee Horn CB Fail 0 $10,500,000
9 DEN Patrick Surtain II CB Pass 2 $18,800,000
10 PHI DeVonta Smith WR Pass 0 $17,014,000
11 CHI Justin Fields QB Pass 0 $19,905,000
12 DAL Micah Parsons ILB Pass 3 $20,200,000
13 LAC Rashawn Slater LT Fail 1 $19,500,000
14 NYJ Alijah Vera-Tucker OL Fail 0 $15,000,000
15 NE Mac Jones QB Pass 0 $20,000,000
16 ARI Zaven Collins LB Fail 0 $12,000,000
17 LV Alex Leatherwood RT Fail 0 N/A
18 MIA Jaelan Phillips LB Fail 0 $12,000,000
19 WAS Jamin Davis LB Pass 0 $13,000,000
20 NYG Kadarius Toney WR Fail 0 $13,000,000
21 IND Kwity Paye DE Fail 0 $13,000,000
22 TEN Caleb Farley CB Fail 0 $10,500,000
23 MIN Christian Darrisaw OL Pass 0 $16,000,000
24 PIT Najee Harris RB Pass 0 $6,500,000
25 JAC Travis Etienne RB Fail 0 $5,500,000
26 CLE Greg Newsome CB Pass 0 $11,750,000
27 BAL Rashod Bateman WR Fail 0 $13,000,000
28 NO Payton Turner DE Fail 0 $13,000,000
29 GB Eric Stokes CB Fail 0 $10,500,000
30 BUF Greg Rousseau DE Fail 0 $13,000,000
31 BAL Odafe Oweh OLB Fail 0 $12,000,000
32 TB Joe Tryon OLB Fail 0 $12,000,000

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