2023 NASCAR Cup Primer
2023 NASCAR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS
Recent NASCAR Champions, Chase Elliott (+550) and Kyle Larson (+650) lead the pack for the 2023 Championship Odds. Last season’s winner Joey Logano comes in at +1200 to repeat as winner. Denny Hamlin who has yet to win a NASCAR Championship in his future Hall of Fame career is the third highest favorite at +1000.
My Best Value Pick: While all of those drivers listed above are great picks, my best value pick is Christopher Bell at +1400. Bell won three races in the 2022 Cup season, had twelve Top-5 and twenty Top-10 finishes (all tied for 3rd most). Bell's average finish was 13.8; however, Bell has shown poise in the car and continues to get better and better with each race, and has been able to compete on any track that has been thrown at him.
Full list of recent NASCAR Champions and their production on the track.
Full breakdown of each NASCAR team & driver contract statuses.
Rookie of the Year
There are only two Rookie of the Year candidates this season: Ty Gibbs and Noah Gragson.
Ty Gibbs will drive No. 54 for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Gibbs won seven races, 16 Top-5 finishes and the 2022 Xfinity Championship. He had a good amount of seat time in the Cup series for 23XI Racing when Kurt Busch was sidelined with concussion symptoms. Gibbs raced in 15 Cup series races with an average finish of 22.9 and one Top-10 finish. Gibbs will now be driving for Joe Gibbs Racing and expectations will be high but he’ll get to learn from Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr and Christopher Bell.
Noah Gragson will drive No. 42 for Legacy Motor Club (formerly Petty GMS).
Gragson came up short in the Xfinity Championship race finishing 2nd but he earned eight wins and 21 Top-5 finishes. Similar to Gibbs, Gragson had seat time for half the season competing in 18 races with three different teams throughout the season: Beard Motorsports, Kaulig Racing and Hendrick Motorsports. His average finish was 23.1 and had one Top-5 finish. Gragson is signed for the 2023 season with Legacy Motor Club and why this is significant is that he’ll get to learn from seven-time NASCAR Champion Jimmie Johnson who became co-owner during the fall and he will have Luke Lambert as his crew chief once again.
While no one expects either “rookie” driver to compete for the Championship this year (Gibbs at +6500 and Gragson at +9500) they no doubt will compete in every race they are a part of and it should be fun to watch these two compete against each other this season and for years to come.
My Rookie of the Year pick: Noah Gragson
Dark Horse of the Year
Watch out for AJ Allmendinger this season. While he is +9500 to win the NASCAR Championship, don’t be surprised if you start seeing his name in the Top-10 of many of the races this season.
AJ Allmendinger will drive full-time for Kaulig Racing during the 2023 Cup season. Allmendinger drove part-time Cup for Kaulig the last two seasons and seems to have gained some resurgence. Allmendinger is a the Dark Horse candidate of the year not only because he is a road course specialist, but he proved towards the end of the season that he can compete on any track right now.
His last 10 Cup races he competed in are as follows: 9, 16, 7, 2, 7, 4, 9, 3, 23, 12. That’s seven Top-10 finishes and he also had two other Top-10 finishes earlier in the season.
Farewell Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick announced that he will be retiring from full-time Cup driving earlier this year. Harvick had a slow start to the 2022 Cup season, but as the season progressed he seemed to be able to figure out the new NextGen car and had back-to-back wins at Michigan and Richmond. He also finished the Top-5 in three of the last five races. Harvick last won a championship with Stewart-Hass Racing in 2014 and is +1600 to win the championship this season. Even though he’s said this is the end of full-time racing, don’t count him out to (A) build off of last season and win some more races this season, and (B) compete for another Championship.
Tyler Reddick vs Kyle Busch
While these two don’t directly have any connection to each other, the comparison of Tyler Reddick and Kyle Busch will be looked at all season.
An interesting timeline of events:
- Kyle Busch starts the 2022 Cup season enter a contract year with Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR),
- M&Ms announces they will no longer be a sponsor for NASCAR meaning Kyle Busch no longer has his primary sponsor with JGR,
- Tyler Reddick’s 2023 contract option was picked up by Richard Childress Racing (RCR) in July of the 2022 season,
- Reddick committed/signed with 23XI Racing for the 2024 season,
- RCR verbally was upset and disappointed in that announcement but committed to Reddick for the 2023 season,
- RCR signed Kyle Busch for the 2023 (car number unknown at that time) while Reddick was still going to be driving the No. 8 car or some other mysterious car if Kyle went into the 8 car,
- 23XI worked a buyout of Reddick’s contract and Reddick will be driving for 23XI in the No. 45 car for the 2023 season
- Kyle Busch will be driving the No. 8 car for the 2023 season
Eyes will be on Kyle Busch looking to see if he is able to bring a championship to RCR which would be the first since 1994. There is no doubt the talent and racing experience of Kyle Busch is a major upgrade to RCR. But will this relationship work with a highly contested personality? What happens if or when Kyle starts having poor finishes and his mouth starts to get him into trouble?
23XI Racing jumped on the opportunity early to sign Reddick ahead of the 2024 season and how the dominoes fell they ended up getting him a year earlier than originally expected. Tyler’s talent and experience alongside Bubba Wallace and Kurt Busch from the sidelines should help boost the 23XI resume.
However, these two drivers will forever be linked and compared because of how everything shook out. And as it just so happens that both driver odds are similar to each other to win the Championship with Busch at +1200 and Reddick at +1400.
Extension Watch
Chase Briscoe recently signed a multi-year extension with Stewart-Haas Racing. Briscoe made the Round of 8 in the Playoffs last season and currently has a +3400 odds to win this year’s championship.
Recent reports have Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain and Denny Hamlin in current contract extension negotiations as the season begins.
Here is a list of other potential drivers who could receive contract extensions that are free agents in 2024: 2024 NASCAR Cup Free Agents
Other Notable News
The Athletic’s Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi have compiled the 75 Best NASCAR Cup Series Drivers of All-Time.
NASCAR is on the verge of a new media rights deal. Adam Stern does an excellent job of breaking down the timeline and negotiations that are currently happening between NASCAR officials, drivers and current/potential media partners. Read the full article here.
NASCAR announces new rules for the 2023 season, including the banning of the ‘Hail Melon’ move from Ross Chastain last season.
NASCAR will have their very first Street Course race in Chicago on July 2, 2023.
