Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado signed a 8 year / $260,000,000 contract with the Colorado Rockies, including $260,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $32,500,000. In 2023, Arenado will earn a base salary of $35,000,000, while carrying a total salary of $35,000,000. Arenado's adjusted salary with the St. Louis Cardinals is $13,000,000

Year		Age	Service	Status	Base Salary	Incentive	Luxury Tax Salary	Payroll Salary	Adjusted Salary	Yearly Cash
2019		28	5.155	ARB 4	$26,000,000	$50,000	$32,500,000	$26,050,000	$26,050,000	$26,050,000($26,050,000)
2020		29	6.155		$35,000,000	$25,000	$32,500,000	$35,025,000	$12,962,963	$12,987,963($39,037,963)
2021		30	7.155		$35,000,000	$50,000	$16,126,055	$35,050,000	$570,500	$620,500($39,658,463)
PLAYER OPT-OUT DECLINED : 6 yr, $112,504,500 remaining
2022		31	8.155	Opt-Out Declined	$35,000,000	$75,000	$24,985,055	$35,075,000	$23,429,500	$23,504,500($63,162,963)
PLAYER OPT-OUT DECLINED : 5 yr, $89,000,000 remaining
2023		32	9.155	Opt-Out Declined	$35,000,000	-	$14,555,555	$35,000,000	$13,000,000	$13,000,000($76,162,963)
2024		33			$35,000,000	-	$25,555,555	$35,000,000	$24,000,000	$24,000,000($100,162,963)
2025		34			$32,000,000	-	$25,555,555	$32,000,000	$21,000,000	$21,000,000($121,162,963)
2026		35			$27,000,000	-	$25,555,555	$27,000,000	$16,000,000	$16,000,000($137,162,963)
2027		36			$15,000,000	-	$30,555,555	$15,000,000	$15,000,000	$15,000,000($152,162,963)
2028		37		UFA
Contract Notes: Player Opt-Out available after 2021 & 2022 Full No-Trade Clause All Star: $25,000 (2021, 2022) MVP/Comeback Player: $100,000 LCS MPV/World Series MVP: $75,000 Silver Slugger: $50,000 Gold Glove: $25,000 (2021) Colorado paying all $35M 2021 salary, $15M in 2021 If Arenado doesn't opt out after 2022, COL will send STL the remaining $20M to be paid out $4M each of 2023-2027 If Arenado does opt out after 2021/2022, COL will pay Arenado the $20M directly $20M of 2021 salary deferred at $2M annually each July 1st 2022-2031 (2% interest) $30M of 2022-2026 salary deferred at $3M annually each July 1st 2032-2041 (no interest) 6.3.6
Contract Source: Bob Nightengale

Year Age Base Salary Total Salary 2032 41 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 2033 42 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 2034 43 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 2035 44 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 2036 45 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 2037 46 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 2038 47 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 2039 48 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 2040 49 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 2041 50 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 Sources: MLB contract specifics generally collected from Baseball Prospectus & Rotoworld.

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We've selected the following players based on their age, contract status, and statistical production to compare Nolan Arenado to.

After adjusting the above contracts as if signed at Arenado's current age (32), a linear regression is performed, providing us with the following initial value.

Now we'll compare our variables and Arenado statistically over the two seasons prior to their signing. In this case we're analyzing:

After applying our Prime % figures into our base calculated value, we're given two values. The average of these values becomes our current calculated market value.