
MLB Free Agents
2023 MLB Free Agents Analysis
Analysis for the top free agent players of the 2023 offseason as determined by our Spotrac MLB experts.
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a list that doesn’t include Judge at the top of it. The 30 year old posted a career (if not historic) season to finish off his team control term with the Yankees. What’s next? $300M over 8 years equals $37.5M, which also just so happens to be slightly more than Mike Trout’s current $37.1M top AAV among position players
Swanson has now posted back to back seasons of 20+ HRs, 80+ RBIs, and 30+ doubles, and will finish 2022 about 40 points higher in batting average than he did for the 2021 campaign. The Braves may be seeking major pitching contracts this winter, so Swanson could be asked to test the open market. A tax adjusted version of Trevor Story’s 6 year, $140M deal in Boston seems right.
Back to back 30+ save seasons, including a ridiculous 17 strikeouts per 9 innings in 2022 have Diaz and his agents seeing plenty of dollar signs these days. The $16M calculated valuation is a baseline, as increased tax thresholds should put Diaz’s price point at or around $20M per year.
Kershaw’s health remains the biggest factor in deciding his future. The future Hall of Famer showed off top of the rotation stuff again in 2022, but also battled back injuries at multiple points of the season. If the Dodgers win another one, will he ride off into the sunset, or is free agency on the table? He’s still a $31M pitcher in our system, if only for one year.
Turner’s having arguably his best season as he approaches the open market, and a leadoff hitter with power will always generate plenty of interest. Will the Dodgers move on as they did with Corey Seagar, or is Turner their long-term SS option? Either way, it appears there’s around $250M in his immediate future.
Still surprised he wasn’t moved at the deadline, the shine has worn off Contreras a bit as he and the Cubs have gone quietly down the stretch. His market should pick back up quickly this winter, with $16M as a floor for his next deal, and finding a power hitting catcher is like tracking a unicorn in the forest these days. The Cubs will slap a qualifying offer on him, which could slow his market a tad, but there’s a $15M per year plus contract in his immediate future.
Nimmo’s health has been the biggest thing holding back a nice extension, but he found his way into 150 games heading toward free agency. He’s a prototypical lead off hitter who plays an excellent center field. Yes, finances for these types of players have been in decline, but Nimmo’s shown enough to prove he’s a cut above the average outfielder, & should find a deal that doubles his current $7M paycheck.
Still hits for average (.309) and brings overall value (4.0 WAR), but the overall production is down as the age has increased. The White Sox may look to upgrade here, so hopping onto another contender as experienced depth could be in his future, but either way it appears his compensation will dip next season.
While Wainwright has been lock step with Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina as they take their victory lap season with the Cardinals, it’s becoming more and more clear that the 41 year old pitcher may not be ready to hang them up just yet. While 2022 wasn’t nearly as efficient as 2021, a near 2.0 WAR and 200 innings pitched offer plenty of value to a contending franchise. He projects just slightly north of the $8M salary he earned this season.
Bell has been radio silent since joining the Padres in the big deadline trade, but he’s done enough over the past 3 seasons to warrant plenty of interest on the open market (assuming the Padres let him get there). A 4 year, $64M range contract should be the baseline for first big free agency deal.
One of the bigger fish on this year’s trade block, Benintendi’s stretch run was cut short by a broken wrist. He comps well with Kyle Schwarber, who locked in a near $20M per year contract with the Phillies last offseason.
Haniger popped 39 homers out in 2021, but saw action in just 55 games this season due to injury. Staying healthy has been the one big setback for the near 32 year old, but he’s a prototypical power bat for any contender this offseason. 4 years, $60M should get it done.
Eovaldi wasn’t able to create his out of nowhere 2021 campaign (4.5 WAR, 2.79 FIP, 4th in Cy Young voting), but he also missed half a season due to injury. How will teams value the near 33-year-old this winter? For our book, he’s still the same $17M player he has been the past 4 seasons.
Thor took a sizable 1 year, $21M “showcase” deal with the Angels as he battled back from nearly 2 full seasons of injury. He may never be the dominant hurler he was to start his career (6.3 K/9 in 2022), but a $15M or so middle of the rotation arm likely suits him well.
Gallo was once on pace for the offseason Kyle Schwarber just had, locking in a 4 year, $79M deal with the Phillies. He’s now much more in line for Joc Pederson’s 1 year, $6M deal with the Giants - maybe.
Kimbrel was finally removed from the Dodgers 9th inning position recently, posting career lows in nearly all areas this season. The 34 year old has earned north of $100M on the field to date, but his next deal will have to come back down to earth. A year adjusted version of Ian Kennedy’s 1 year, $5M deal is probably about right.
Manaea was eyeing the typical middle rotation contract so many have been projected to receive here, but 2022 has been an abomination (-1.2 WAR, 5.15 ERA). He’ll have a chance to make an impact this postseason and resurrect some of value, but for now, he’s a $12M pitcher next year in our books.
Martinez is only a year removed from 28 homers, 99 RBIs and a league leading 42 doubles from the 2021 season. With the exception of doubles (40), this year’s numbers pale in comparison, but there’s zero question Martinez can improve a batting lineup for the next few seasons. The mat calls him a 2 year, $30M DH still, but logic says that might be a bit of a stretch.
Taillon hit his career numbers almost on the nose this year, posting a sub 4 ERA for the first time in 3 seasons. The strikeouts are down a bit - but the walks are down a LOT, putting him in line for a healthy pay raise this winter. 3 years, $45M is the current mathematical going rate.
Jansen’s overall resume shows decline, but the 35 year old is going to finish the 2022 season with the most saves in the National League, and will be a major factor in the postseason. The Braves probably replaced him going forward when they acquired Raisel Iglesias, but there will be plenty of teams looking to throw money Jansen’s way.
Pederson took a 1 year $6M deal to join the Giants this year, and put together a better resume to head into the winter with (20 doubles, 23 HRs, 70 RBIS, .274/.354/.522/.877). He’ll most certainly be seeking a multi-year guarantee this time around, and the Giants could very much be in the mix for that - especially if another power bat is added to the lineup around him (Aaron Judge). He’s a 4 year $60M baseline in our system.
Conforto limped into free agency last winter with almost career low numbers, then underwent shoulder surgery as an unsigned player this past April. It stands to reason teams may need a 1 year look at the 29 year old before guaranteeing too much, but he remains a $20M per year value in our system.
Not a terrible time to have a career year. Wacha carries a 3.3 WAR into free agency - if Boston lets him get there. If it ain’t broke, don’t let another AL East contender buy it, even if it means a healthy raise over his current $7M salary.
After a three year stretch where it looked like all was lost, Robertson found it this season posting a 2.44 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 169 ERA+ with the Cubs & Phillies. Mathematically he’s in line for a 2x raise this offseason, projecting to a 2 year, $18M deal.
Another case of an early 30s pitcher having a career year approaching free agency, Anderson has been an integral part of the Dodgers rotation down the stretch. Playing out a 1 year $8M contract in 2022, Anderson will head into the winter with a near $14M valuation.