Updated Contract Forecast: TY Hilton

Updated Contract Forecast: TY Hilton
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UPDATED Contract Forecast: T.Y. Hilton

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The Colts have been playing on house many over the past 3 seasons, getting maximum value from their wage-scaled youth in QB Andrew Luck, WR T.Y. Hilton, and a paid of solid TEs in Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. But the time to lock these players in to veteran contracts is creeping up, and it's possibly, if not likely, that all of these pieces won't be able to stay intact in the immediate future.

 

We'll focus here on Hilton, who has increased production in each of his first 3 years, quickly becoming Andrew Luck's goto target in many situations. We'll take a close look at his production over the past 2 seasons, comparing it to a group of variable receivers of similar age who have recently signed extensions to forecast Hiltons' current value heading toward the 2015 season.

Comparable Wide Receivers
Now 25 years old, Hilton is a bit younger than many of our variable receivers at the time of their signings. We'll adjust his contract accordingly, then to determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract breakdown listed below.
Player Length Value Avg. Salary Age When Signed
Dez Bryant 5 $70,000,000 $14,000,000 26
Demaryius Thomas 5 $70,000,000 $14,000,000 27
Jeremy Maclin  5 $55,000,000 $11,000,000 26
Mike Wallace 5 $60,000,000 $12,000,000 26
Averages 5 $63,750,000 $12,750,000 26.25

Note: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.

View the list of Top Average Paid Wide Receivers in the NFL

Once a linear regression is performed on these new numbers we're given the following terms to begin with:

Length Value Avg. Salary (slope)
5 $64,267,516 $12,853,503

Statistical Analyzations, Prime Percentage
Now let's analyze these players statistically in the year prior to signing their second contract by comparing Games Played, Receptions/G, Receiving Yards/G, Targets/Game, and Receiving TDs/G between our variables and Hilton.
Player Games REC/G REC YDS/G TARG/G TD/G
Dez Bryant (2013-14, DAL) 16 5.625 79.8 9.25 .906
Demaryius Thomas (2013-14, DEN) 16 6.375 95.3 10.18 .78
Jeremy Maclin (2013-14, PHI) 16 5.31 82.4 8.9 .625
Mike Wallace (2011-12, PIT) 15.5 4.38 65.6 7.51 .51
Averages 15.88 5.42 80.78 8.96 .71
T.Y. Hilton (2013-14, IND) 15.5 5.29 78.3 8.7 .38
% Difference -2.36% -2.44% -3.06% -2.9% -46.14%
AVERAGE PRIME %: -11.38%
MEDIAN PRIME % -2.90%

Hilton's overall production is a bit below the average of our variables here, in that he doesn't excel in any one major statistical category. He's hurt most by his inability to find the endzone, likely because the Colts are built to score TDs in other ways (double TEs, power running, etc). We'll factor in both the Average and Median percentages to show a range projection below.

Guaranteed Money
We'll factor in our variable wide receiver's guaranteed dollars to forecast what Hilton might expect.
Player Value True Guarantees % Guaranteed
Dez Bryant  $70,000,000 $45,000,000 64.29%
Demaryius Thomas  $70,000,000 $43,500,000 62.14%
Jeremy Maclin  $55,000,000 $22,500,000 40.91%
Mike Wallace $60,000,000 $27,000,000 45%
Adjusted Regression: 53%
Results

Length of the Contract
Our variable receiver contracts averaged out to 5 years. Hilton won't be 26 years old until mid November, meaning a 5 year extension (added on to his 2015 salary) is well within range here.

Value of the Contract
Hilton has quickly turned himself into a big-game player for Andrew Luck and the Colts offense. Indy added veteran pieces around him this offseason in WR Andre Johnson and RB Frank Gore to further their chances to contend in the AFC, so it's a likely step for the Colts to lock in Hilton at some point this summer. Financially speaking, the earlier the better. We'll break out our MEDIAN and AVERAGE figures:

Low Value (HOMETOWN DISCOUNT)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (-11.38%), we're forecasting Hilton as the 5th highest average paid WR:
5 years, $56,950,000 | $11,390,000 per year | $30,100,000 guaranteed
High Value (MAX-VALUE DEAL)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage ( 6.87%), we're forecasting Hilton as the 4th highest average paid WR:
5 years, $62,500,000 | $12,500,000 per year | $33,125,000 guaranteed

We'll split the difference to offer the best-value forecast for Hilton's next contract:
Spotrac's Prediction: 5 years, $60,000,000

Average Salary:  $12,000,000

Guaranteed Money:  $31,800,000



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