The Victor Cruz Pay Day

The Victor Cruz Pay Day
Victor Cruz 2012 Contract Prediction

Contract Prediction: Victor Cruz

He's been one of the most explosive, dynamic, and clutch receivers - seemingly out of nowhere over the past 18 months, and with a base rookie contract set to expire, it's time for New York Giants WR Victor Cruz to get paid. Our NFL experts take a look at the recent contracts signed by players of similar age and statistical production, formulating an official prediction for where the two sides could, and should agree on.

Comparable Wide Receivers
Player Length Value Avg. Salary Age When Signed
Brandon Marshall 5 $47.3 million $9.46 million 26
Greg Jennings 4 $26.8 million $11.25 million 26
Stevie Johnson 5 $36.25 million $7.25 million 26
Antonio Brown 6 $43.04 million $8.5 million 24
Cruz will turn 26 on November 11th, a typical age for receivers to sign their sophomore contract. To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of the contract information listed above.

Definition: A linear regression is a formula that plots the provided points of data for Length and Value of the contracts, and then generates the best-fit line for those points, resulting in a "slope" value that translates to an average annual salary.
Length Value Average Salary
6 $46,090,000 $7,681,667
Statistical Analyzations
Now let's analyze these players statistically in the year prior to signing their second contract by showing Games Played, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving Yards/Game, and Receiving TD.
Player Games Receptions Rec Yards REC Yards/Game REC TD
Brandon Marshall (2010, DEN)1486101472.43
Greg Jennings (2008, GB)1680129280.89
Stevie Johnson (2011, BUF)1676100462.87
Antonio Brown (2011, PIT)1669110869.252
Averages 15.5 77.75 1104.5 71.3 5.25
Victor Cruz (2011, NYG)16821536969
% Difference103%105%139%134%171%

It's clear that Victor Cruz's 2011 campaign was elite. He excelled in each major receiving category, in many cases nearly doubling his colleagues in their year prior to signing.

Statistically speaking, Cruz stands 130% stronger than these variable wide receivers heading into the negotiation room. We'll multiply our initial prediction by a factor of .3 to include this finding and formulate a more insightful number

Length Value Average Salary
6 $59,917,000 $9,986,167
Length of the Contract
Nearly 26, Cruz is in the prime of his explosive career and is at the right time, and in the right city to garner a maximum term contract.

Value of the Contract
Cruz appears to have everything in his corner for this negotiation. He's coming off a Super Bowl winning, huge statistical 2011 season. He plays in the major-market that is New York. He has a franchise quarterback for life. And his 2012 numbers to date (through Week 7) are as impressive, if not more impressive than the prior season (50 receptions, 627 yards, 7 Tds, 90 yards per game). We'll go along with the numbers here that say Cruz is set to become a $10 million per year receiver.
Spotrac's Prediction: 6 years, $59,917,000