To be clear from the start here, this valuation is purely from a "what-if" position, as in "what if RG3 was still the Redskins starting QB" or "what if RG3 is released, signs a small deal elsewhere, and is being considered for a long-term extension based on his reborn excellence".
We're simply looking at Griffin statistically here, both as a passing QB and with his ability to run. We'll compare him in this manner to a strong set of young quarterbacks who have recently been extended with their respective teams, to formulate a mathematical valuation for Robert Griffin III.
|Player||Length||Value||Avg. Salary||Guaranteed||Age When Signed|
Related: View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
|Length||Value||Avg. Salary (slope)|
|Player||Games/YR||PASS YD/G||Pass TD/G||Sacks/G||INT/YR||Comp %/YR|
|Robert Griffin III
|AVERAGE PRIME PERCENTAGE:||-17.95%|
|MEDIAN PRIME PErcentage:||-24.84%|
|Robert Griffin III
|average PRIME PERCENTAGE:||-32.82%|
|MEDIAN PRIME PErcentage:||-25.43%|
Somewhat surprisingly, Griffin's rushing numbers appear to be even WORSE in comparison to our variables - even when including a less mobile player in Tannehill. We'll apply these percentages to our bottom line below.
Length of the Contract
At 25 years old, age is certainly not an issue (one of the few things in his favor right now). We'll round our averages down to an even 5 years (assuming he's released and has no option year for 2016).
Value of the Contract
In terms of mathematics, and in the general role of the quarterback position across the league, it doesn't make sense to weigh the passing analysis and the rushing analysis evenly. With that being said, we'll apply our prime pecentages at a 70/30 ratio between the two categories respectively. This means we'll assess Robert at:
-25.01% Median Prime Percentage, and a -22.41% Average Prime Percantage. Our initial base contract provided an average salary of more than $19.8M per year, a figure that would place him 9th among active quarterbacks. When factoring this with our Prime Figures:
Low Value (Hometown Discount)
Utilizing our Median Prime Percentage (-25.01%), we're provided with a lower, but still generous annual average.
5 years, $74,490,796 | $14,898,159 per year
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (-22.41%), we've given a slightly bigger annual average:
5 years, $77,073,488 | $15,414,697 per year
The long and short of this analysis is that regardless of his positives, RG3's inability to lead his team, be it through the offseason or in terms of winning on the field, far outweigh the good. Now barely a starting quarterback, he'll never be evaluated on this level until he's proven he can maximize his abilities (likely with another team).
When averaging our two values, we're given the following mathematical evaluation for Robert Griffin III: